Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Causes of inflation'

The purpose of this study is to find causes of inflation in Korea. We hypothesized that inflation in Korea was a "mixed" inflation generated by not only monetary factors but also nonmonetary factors. The data was obtained mainly from International Finance Statistics (IMF) and Monthly Bulletin (The Bank of Korea). The first chapter introduces the Korean economy. Chapter two surveyed the effects of import prices, wages, and money supply in inflationary process. The third chapter studied some theoretical backgrounds of inflation. Chapter four analyzed the results of statistical tests. Finally, chapter five consisted of summary and policy implications.

Inflation has been the focus of numerous investigations in recent decades, both for developed and developing countries. Although there is a general understanding about the consequences of inflation, its causes and cure are still controversial issues among economists. None of the two competitive views concerned with developing countries , Monetarism and Structuralism, provides a wholly successful theoretical model to explain price behaviour. This thesis attempts to suggest a synthesis for more appropriate modeling. Empirically, the most commonly used modeling strategy has been to adapt a monetary model subject to some modifications for the developing countries, reflecting structural elements, which may be named an analytical model. This investigation considers much empirical evidence and points out the shortcomings of the models used and the econometric procedures carried out. In particular, several recent studies of inflation in the Iranian economy are evaluated. This evaluation indicates that the single equation estimation and/or ignorance of integration and co integration in these researches are two features to be questioned. This thesis uses a simultaneous equations model originally made for four non-oil developing countries. Adapting the model for Iran, a major oil exporting country, leads to a model containing three behavioural equations (price, government revenue and income) and two definitional equations (money and expected inflation). This model, treating income, money and government revenue as endogenous, attempts to take into account the special structural features of the economy beside monetary elements. A vector autoregressive approach in a multiple cointegration context is the estimation procedure used in this study. The results generally confirm predicted price determination and indicate the importance of the oil sector in both government revenue and production.

L'inflation et le chômage demeurent de nos jours des problèmes majeurs au centre des préoccupations des économistes contemporains tant dans les pays industriels que dans les PVD. En Iran aussi les tensions inflationnistes restent depuis le premier choc pétrolier de 1973, comme un problème préoccupant. Quant au chômage, il s'est développé à partir de 1985. Ce travail a pour objectif d'étudier les causes de l'inflation en Iran durant la période de 1971-1991. On peut s'interroger sur la nature de l'inflation en Iran, mais compte tenu de l'interdépendance de tous les éléments du système économique, il est vraiment délicat de retenir l'un d'entre eux comme source unique de cette inflation. Dans l'analyse des causes, on voit qu'avant la révolution islamique de 1979, l'injection d'une quantité additionnelle de monnaie provenant de la hausse du prix du pétrole en 1973 s'est traduit par une hausse des revenus, qui ont naturellement à leur tour déterminé un accroissement de la demande effective, alors que l'offre de biens demeure constante sur le marché national. Mais une offre extérieure sous forme d'une hausse des importations a annulé toute distorsion entre l'offre et la demande sans pourtant juguler l'inflation ; elle a même contribué à renforcer la tension déjà créée. La pression des prix à l'importation a fait augmenter les coût de production. Le phénomène a affecté soit les matières premières, soit les produits semi-finis et même ceux destinés à la consommation. Dans les années suivant la révolution islamique, l’État est demeuré le principal facteur de l'inflation car, en raison de la guerre et du boycott économique, il s'est trouvé en situation en situation de déficit budgétaire. Il emprunta au système bancaire et l'accroissement de liquidité qui en résulta se traduisit par les tensions inflationnistes
Inflation and unemployment are two major problems claiming the attention of contemporary economists, both in industrialized and developing countries. In Iran also, inflationary tensions (unleashed by the 1973 oil crisis) remain a serious problem. Unemployment took off in 1985 and has grown ever since. This work aims at studying the causes of inflation in Iran from 1971 to 1991. Many questions can be raised on the nature of inflation in Iran but, taking into account the interdependence between the elements of the economic system, considering just one of them as the single cause of inflation may be too simplistic. Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the injection of additional quantity of liquidity coming from the hike in oil prices in 1973 led to a rise in incomes, which in return determined an increase in effective demand while the supply of goods in the national market remained constant. But an external supply in the form of increase in imports wiped away all distortion between supply and demand without however checking the inflation. The new situation reinforced the already existing tension. The price pressure due to imports made production costs mount. The phenomenon touched both raw materials and semi-finished and even consumption products. During the years following the Islamic Revolution, the state has become the main factor of inflation, because, as a result of the war and economic boycott, it found itself in a situation of budget deficit. It borrowed from the banking system and the resulting increase in liquidity created inflationary tensions

L'examen de la situation anormale de l'économie iranienne au cours de ces 30 dernières années nous conduit à tenter de démontrer que son déséquilibre monétaire résultait de la conjonction de multiples actions et interactions des agents économiques. Les hypothèses de base de la théorie Monétariste pour la situation instable de l'Iran ne sont pas applicables en Iran et l'instabilité du pays rend le comportement inflationniste des agents progressivement institutionnalisé. Les causes " psycho-socio-politico-juridico-économiques " de l'inflation iranienne ont fait qu'à la suite de la hausse du Dollar et la tendance spéculative des agents économiques, la hausse des prix a pris un caractère chronique. Les politiques économiques n'ont pas pu donner les résultats escomptés, mais au contraire provoqué une pénurie de marchandises, une perte supplémentaire de devises, ainsi qu'une généralisation de la pauvreté et de la corruption. Nous tentons donc de dégager une situation passant par l'instauration de conditions susceptibles de renforcer l'infrastructure afin de redonner confiance aux agents économiques grâce à une série de réformes.

Розглянуто специфіку формування економічного світогляду в умовах економіки регіону, яка демонструє гірші показники розвитку. The peculiarity of the formation of an economic outlook in the conditions of the region's economy, which shows the worst indicators of development, is considered.

The study was designed to examine the causal relationship between the Venezuelan inflation and the monetarist variables--money supply--and the structuralist variables-- exchange rate and balance of payments. The data (1964-1982) was gathered from the International Financial Statistic Yearbook, 1983 and the Statistical Yearbook, 1974, 1982. Chapter I is an introduction to the research problem. Chapter II does a review of the related literature. Chapter III deals with the methods and procedures for treating the data. Chapter IV presents an statistical analysis of the data. And, Chapter V contains a summary of the study and its findings, conclusions and recommendations. The study only found a significant relationship between inflation and the monetarist variables money supply and GNP, though supporting the monetarist theory. A similar investigation is suggested, but selecting a longer time period, other.variables, and more refined methodologies and analysis.

In this thesis, we study the causes of inflation in Mongolia. We estimate a small open economy VAR model for Mongolia. The model comprises of two blocks - China and Mongolia and we impose a block exogeneity restriction in regards with our estimation purpose. We assess domestic and external shock affect on price level of Mongolia using impulse response function and reveal the main contributors to the price variability utilizing the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). Therefore, we trace out that the external shocks affect the price significantly in comparison with the domestic shock. In addition, we can say that the price level is very susceptible under the supply side shock.

My dissertation focuses upon low inflation. Many developed countries, especially Japan and the Eurozone, have recently experienced prolonged periods of below-target inflation. This has been blamed for many economic ills including worsening the Great Recession and generating a slow recovery, making monetary policy ineffective and leading to lower labor market flexibility. I study what has caused low inflation, its potential effects and how it could be prevented. In Chapter 1, I look at how effective raising the inflation target would be in mitigating the problems of low inflation. Many economists have proposed raising the inflation target to reduce the probability of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB). It is both widely assumed and a feature of standard models that raising the inflation target does not impact the equilibrium real rate. I demonstrate that once heterogeneity is introduced, raising the inflation target causes the equilibrium real rate to fall in the New Keynesian model. This implies that raising the inflation target will increase the nominal interest rate by less than expected and thus will be less effective in reducing the probability of hitting the ZLB. The channel is that a rise in the inflation target lowers the average markup by price rigidities and a fall in the average markup lowers the equilibrium real rate by household heterogeneity which could come from overlapping generations or idiosyncratic labor shocks. Raising the inflation target from 2% to 4% lowers the equilibrium real rate by 0.38 percentage points in my baseline calibration. I also analyse the optimal inflation level and provide empirical evidence in support of the model mechanism. In Chapter 2, I study to what degree the recent fall in inflation can explain the rise in firm profitability which has been blamed for a rise in inequality. A theoretical relationship between inflation and profitability is known to exist. I investigate the degree to which the recent fall in inflation can explain the rise in firm profitability. My three primary findings are: 1. The negative relationship between inflation and profitability does not hinge upon the Calvo assumption. Raising inflation significantly lowers profitability under all common price rigidities. The relationship can actually be significantly stronger under menu costs. 2. A rise in the degree to which firms discount the future magnifies the effect; a rise in elasticity of substitution can increase or decrease the effect depending upon the price rigidity. 3. The profit share has risen by around 3.5p.p. since the 1990s. In a richer model with firm heterogeneity, the recent fall in inflation is estimated to explain 14% of the rise. This can increase to 29% if firms are allowed to discount the future by more in line with estimates from the finance literature. I also provide empirical evidence for the negative relationship between inflation and firm profits. In Chapter 3, I examine whether behavioral features can help to explain why some countries have persistently experienced low inflation at the zero lower bound. Economists are keen to introduce behavioral assumptions into modern macroeconomic models. A popular framework for doing so is sparse dynamic programming, which assumes that agents partly base their expectations upon a default model which is typically the steady state. This means agents' expectations will be wrong if there are long-run deviations from the default model and assumes agents can compute the default. I introduce an alternative form of sparse dynamic programming which tackles these problems by allowing for long-run updating to the behavioral part of agents' expectations. I apply this to derive a long-run behavioral New Keynesian model. Within this model, fixed interest rates yield indeterminacy and the costs of remaining at the zero lower bound are unbounded. These results are very different to a behavioral New Keynesian model based upon standard sparse dynamic programming, which can yield determinacy under fixed interest rates and bounded costs of the zero lower bound.

碩士
輔仁大學
經濟學研究所
95
During 1993, the law of negotiable securities of real estate was advertised. The Investors have a new choice of investment. Whatever, our investors only care their return or anti-inflation. Does REITs have this advantage? This focus that we want to care, beside it has some properties that like the stocks. Because of this reason, it push us to research the REITs.

碩士
亞洲大學
財務金融學系碩士在職專班
103
The construction industry is the important industry in the process of Taiwan economic development. Therefore, this study concentrates on the case of Taiwan’s publicly listed construction companies to identify the cause-and-effect relationships between stock returns, inflation rates, and money supply. The conceptual model in this study was tested using two-stage least square regression analysis. The research data were collected for each quarter from 2003 to 2014. However, the financial crisis that occurred in 2008 resulted in the failure and distress of financial institutions. Therefore, the impact of the financial crisis on the relationships between money supply, inflation rates, and stock returns is also a major topic of this study. The full sample included 82 companies, data were obtained from the Taiwan Economic Journal Databank. The empirical results indicate that money supply has a direct negative impact on inflation rates, which in turn affects stock returns. Otherwise, money supply has a significant positive impact on inflation rates in post-financial crisis but not in the pre-financial crisis.

A relação entre crescimento económico, inflação, desenvolvimento do mercado de ações e desenvolvimento do setor bancário foi estudada num painel de 21 países de rendimento elevado classificados pelo World Bank para o período 2001-2014 usando dados anuais. Todos os dados usados são extraídos do World Development Indicators do World Bank. Foi usando o PIB per capita constante para estudar o crescimento económico, a inflação no final do período para estudar a inflação e foi usado análise de componentes principais para a construção de duas variáveis que permitem o estudo do desenvolvimento do mercado de ações e do desenvolvimento do setor bancário, num painel VAR, testando a interdependência entre as variáveis bem como a causalidade à Granger, encontrando a presença de tanto causalidade unidirecional como bidirecional entre as variáveis. São também usadas as funções impulso-resposta e a decomposição da variância. Esta investigação defende que o desenvolvimento do mercado de ações e o desenvolvimento do setor bancário estimulam a economia.
The relationship between economic growth, inflation, stock market development and banking sector development was studied in a panel of 21 high income countries classified by the World Bank for the period 2001-2014 by using annual data. All the data used is from the World Development Indicators. It was used Gross Domestic Product per capita constant in order to study economic growth, inflation at the end of period to study inflation and it was used principal component analysis for the construction of two single variables that allows the assessment of stock market development and banking sector development in a panel vector auto-regressive model, for testing the interdependence between variables as well as the Granger causalities, finding the presence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causality links among them. It is also used impulse response functions and variance decomposition. The research supports that the stock market development and the banking sector development stimulates economic growth.

碩士
真理大學
財經研究所
92
Existing empirical documents only discussed that the level of the inflation will influence the relation between the financial development and economic growth. The issue about the causal relationships among inflation rate, financial development and economic growth is not discussed directly. The purpose of this paper is to find out Granger causal relationships among the three and make transnational comparative analysis. The article regards Taiwan, Korea and Japan as the research object. The approach of this paper uses time-series data and the vector error correction model（VECM）to investigate the Granger causal relationships among inflation, financial development and economic growth. The result shows that the causal relationships in three countries are not the same. It could be different from various countries'' economic environment and financial systems. In addition, conclusions compared with Shu-Hwa Chang（2004）, because this paper considers inflation rate, it is different in the causal relationships of financial development and economic growth. It also indicates that the inflation is playing an important role in investigating the relationship between financial development and economic growth.

This thesis examines the output-variability relationship and causal relationships among the inflation, the output growth and their uncertainties for the Central and Eastern European region during the period of time that covers the economic crisis of 2008. We apply the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model with the constant conditional correlation covariance matrix to obtain conditional variances that proxy the two uncertainties and use Granger causality test to determine the causal effects among four variables. We come up with a number of interesting results. First, we did not find statistical evidence neither for the inflation-output variability relationship nor for the Phillips curve. Second, we uncovered support for the positive causal effect of the inflation on its uncertainty and negative causal effect for the reverse direction. Additionally, we also found some support for the indirect negative causal effect of the inflation on the output growth. These results support the policy of low and stable inflation in the countries. Finally, we showed that crisis has a significant impact on the results, changing the behaviour of conditional variances and causal effects among the variables. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)