Academic literature on the topic 'Central bank capital'

This paper examines changes in bank capital and capital regulations since the global financial crisis, in the Europe and Central Asia region. It shows that banks in Europe and Central Asia are better capitalized, as measured by regulatory capital ratios, than they were prior to the crisis. However, the increase in simple equity ratios for the same banks has been smaller over the past 10 years. The increases in regulatory capital ratios have coincided with a reduction in the stringency of the definition of Tier 1 capital and reduction in risk-weights. We further analyze the relationship between bank capital and bank risk using individual bank data. We show that bank risk in Europe and Central Asia is more sensitive to changes in simple leverage ratios than changes in regulatory capital ratios, consistent with the notion that equity ratios only include high-quality capital and do not rely on internal risk models to compute risk-weights. Although there has been some effort to increase capital and liquidity requirements for institutions deemed systemically important, the region has been lagging in addressing the resolution of these institutions. In line with Demirguc-Kunt, Detragiache, and Merrouche (2013), our findings show the importance of the definition of bank capital to assure bank financial stability in Europe and Central Asia.

The aim of this study is to examine the existence of causality between corporate governance practice and performance of commercial banks in Indonesia. We also investigate the influence of age, capital adequacy, and type of commercial banks on bank performance and examine the influence of the bank size, foreign ownership, and listing status on corporate governance practice. The result shows that corporate governance practice, bank size and capital adequacy ratio have positive influences on bank performance in Indonesia. However, bank performance does not influence corporate governance practice. This study also finds that regional banks have better performance than private banks. The results of the study support the Central Bank’s efforts to enhance CG practices in the banking sector, to strenghten banks’ capital base and its policy to encourage banks to merge to become larger.

Central banks target CPI inflation; independent central banks are concerned about their balance sheet and the level of their capital. The first fact makes it difficult for a central bank to implement the optimal escape from a liquidity trap, because it undermines a commitment to overshoot the inflation target. We show that the second fact provides a solution. Capital concerns provide a mechanism for an independent central bank to commit to inflate ex post. The optimal policy can take the form of a currency depreciation combined with a crawling peg, a policy advocated by Svensson as the “Foolproof Way” to escape from a liquidity trap. (JEL E31, E52, E58, E62)

How does credit from the financial sector and claims on the central government affect banking sector liquidity and financial stability risks? This paper constructs an algorithm, which investigates the impact of domestic credit from the financial sector, bank to capital assets ratio, claims on the central government on banking sector liquidity – a proxy for financial stability. The results show a positive and statistically significant impact of the capital assets ratio on the bank's liquidity of 3.1%. It equally finds that domestic credit and claims on central government hurt bank liquidity, notably of -0.15% and -2.5%, respectively. The study recommends that commercial banks invest in higher-value domestic projects to improve their profitability over the long-run, thereby boosting financial stability. Furthermore, the central bank should make additional liquidity for banks contingent on the amount of credit they provide to the real economy.

The study sought to determine the effect of bank regulation and level of nonperforming loans in commercial banks in Nakuru County Kenya. The specific objectives of the study were to explore the effect of capital adequacy on the level of nonperforming loans in commercial banks in Nakuru County Kenya, to find out the effect of asset quality on the level of nonperforming loans in commercial banks in Nakuru County Kenya, to evaluate the effect of liquidity management on the level of nonperforming loans in commercial banks in Nakuru County Kenya, to examine the effect of management efficiency on the level of nonperforming loans in commercial banks in Nakuru County Kenya and to determine the moderating effect of macroeconomic factors on the relationship between bank regulation and level of nonperforming loans. The literature review focused on portfolio theory of investment, capital asset pricing theory and the capital buffer theory of capital adequacy. The primary data was collected using structured questionnaires and secondary data was collected from the banking survey 2017 and central bank of Kenya annual supervisory reports. The study employed multiple linear regression analysis and the finding revealed that there exist a negative and statistically insignificant relationship between capital adequacy and non-performing loans. It was also observed that there exist a negative and statistically insignificant relationship between liquidity management and non-performing loans. On the other hand, there exist a positive and statistically significant relationship between asset quality and non-performing loans. Similarly, there exist a positive and statistically insignificant relationship between management efficiency and non-performing loans. Finally, the findings indicated that macroeconomic factors have moderating effect on the relationship between bank regulations and non-performing loans in commercial banks in Nakuru County. It was concluded that asset quality positively influences non-performing loans while management efficiency influence positively the non-performing loans. Similarly, liquidity management exerts a negative influence on non-performing loans. Finally, capital adequacy influence negatively on non-performing loans. The study recommends that Central Bank of Kenya should regularly access lending behavior to ensure compliance with banking regulations to avoid increasing incidences of non-performing loans. In addition, Central Bank of Kenya should closely monitor banks with deteriorating asset quality. Further, Central Bank of Kenya should strictly monitor the economic sector and ensure that banks provide adequate provisions for loans to mitigate risks of default. Furthermore, banks should maintain a good balance on deposits and lending out loans and adhere to regulators decisions about monetary policies. Finally, banks should increase the operational efficiency of operation weakness and improve corporate governance on the sanction of loans and Central Bank of Kenya should focus on managerial performance in order to detect banks with potential increases in non-performing loans.

This research emerges with internal financial constraint. How financial constraint may lead to economic recess or back. This financial constraint is different than external finance constraint, and is not due to lack of gold, etc. It explains the positive relationship between excess return in stock market (ERSM) and non-real funding or riskier credit. The matter comes under imperfect market banking. It includes subsequently banking behavior and failure of central bank policy to control individual banks under these circumstances. In addition, it presents measures to get awareness before default comes, as financial default rare and crisis in financial market comes much before that.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Dept. of Economics and Social Sciences Consortium. University of Missouri--Kansas City, 2006.
"A dissertation in economics and social sciences." Advisor: L. Randall Wray. Typescript. Vita. Title from "catalog record" of the print edition Description based on contents viewed Dec. 19, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 422-452). Online version of the print edition.

During the Great Recession of 2007 and 2008, liquidity and credit dried up, threatening the stability of financial institutions, particularly the banking firms. Traditional source of funds from the last resort, the Discount Window of the Federal Reserve System, failed to remedy the liquidity problem. To assuage the liquidity and credit problem, the Federal Reserve System established several emergency lending facilities and provided unprecedented amount of loans to the banking industry. Using a dataset published by Bloomberg LLP in the aftermaths of the financial crisis, which contains daily loan balances from the Fed, I conduct an event study to test whether financial markets are efficient in reflecting all public, anticipated and classified information in security prices. The most important contribution of this dissertation to the finance discipline and literature is the investigation and analysis of the Fed’s unprecedented loans to the banking industry during the Great Recession and the market reaction to it. The second major contribution of this study is the empirical test of strong form efficient market hypothesis, which has not been feasible due to legal data challenges. This dissertation has other contributions to the finance discipline and banking research. First, I develop an algorithm for measuring the amount of borrowing by banks. Second, I introduce a new “loan balance” ratio to traditional list of bank financial ratios. Third, I use event study methodologies to allow for cross-correlation, heteroscedasticity and event induced-variance change in studying US banks’ performance during the Great Recession.

O mercado financeiro brasileiro é caracterizado pela elevada concentração bancária, onde os cinco maiores bancos detêm a maior parte dos ativos financeiros. Bancos pequenos e médios têm que disputar espaços com os grandes conglomerados financeiros. Questões como economia de escala e custo de observância às normas são essenciais para a sobrevivência destas instituições menores. A aprovação para a constituição de instituições financeiras no País é dada pelo Banco Central do Brasil, que estabelece os valores de capital mínimo, em função da modalidade de instituição. Por sua vez, o Comitê de Supervisão Bancária de Basiléia estabelece os padrões máximos de alavancagem, o que indica qual volume de carteira pode ser contratado, dado este patrimônio. Este trabalho tem como objetivo verificar se os valores de capital mínimo estabelecidos pelo Banco Central do Brasil são compatíveis com a estrutura de custo das instituições, e com o objetivo de retorno dos acionistas. Serão utilizados dados dos demonstrativos das instituições financeiras e, com base em modelo de regressão de dados em painel estático, será construída uma curva de retornos em função do porte da instituição. Este retorno, comparado com o custo de capital calculado pelo CAPM indicará a partir de que porte uma instituição financeira é viável.
The Brazilian financial market is characterized by its huge banking concentration, where the five largest banks hold most part of the assets. Small and medium size financial institutions have to compete with the larger financial conglomerates. Economy of scale and cost of compliance issues are essential for the survival of the smaller institutions. The approval of a new financial institution is given by the Brazilian Central Bank, who establishes the minimum equity value, depending on the type of institution intended. Additionally, the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision fixes the maximum leverage standards, what indicates the maximum credit portfolio possible, given this equity value. This thesis aims to verify if the minimum equity value established by the Brazilian Central Bank is compatible with the banks operational cost and the shareholder return objective. Data of the financial statements will be used in conjunction with static panel regressions, to construct the return curve regarding the dimension of the institution. This will be compared with the shareholder cost of capital, estimated by de CAPM, to indicate the minimum dimension, which makes feasible the institution.

Cette thèse traite de deux nouveaux débats sur le central banking qui ont émergé après la crise financière de 2008: le débat sur les pertes financières aux bilans des banques centrales, et le débat sur le niveau élevé des taux bancaires par rapport aux taux de marché après la crise. Les deux premiers chapitres s’inscrivent dans le premier débat. Le lien entre la solidité financière des banques centrales et l’inflation est étudié empiriquement dans le premier chapitre, en se basant sur un large panel de 82 pays. Théoriquement, ce lien est potentiellement présent lorsque le gouvernement ne soutient pas financièrement la banque centrale et que celle-ci ne peut donc compter que sur elle-même pour améliorer sa situation financière. Les résultats du premier chapitre montrent qu’en pratique tel est effectivement le cas: les détériorations aux bilans des banques centrales s’accompagnent d’une inflation plus forte lorsque la banque centrale n’a pas de soutien fiscal. Les résultats ne montrent pas de lien dans un contexte général, comme la théorie le suggère. Dans le second chapitre, il est analysé et conceptualisé l’argument selon lequel une banque centrale peut mettre fin à un régime de change fixe ou quasi-fixe par peur de futures pertes financières. L’analyse est ensuite appliquée au cas du cours plancher mis en place par la Banque Centrale de Suisse (BNS) entre 2011 et 2015 vis-à-vis de l’euro. Cet argument a été avancé par beaucoup pour expliquer la fin de la politique de cours plancher en Suisse, sans qu’aucune recherche avant celle-ci n’évalue sa pertinence. Les estimations empiriques du Chapitre 2 permettent de montrer que cet argument avait une crédibilité: elles montrent que dans des scénarios crédibles, en cassant le peg avec l’euro 17 mois plus tard, la BNS aurait essuyé une perte considérable, dépassant un seuil perçu comme limite par beaucoup de banquiers centraux. Le dernier chapitre de cette thèse s’intéresse à l’écart entre les taux de dépôts et le taux de marché en zone euro (l’EURIBOR) qui est devenu significativement positif après la crise, conduisant certains à parler de « sur-rémunération » des dépôts. Ce chapitre soutient que la majorité de cet écart ne s’explique non pas par un comportement anormal des dépôts comme certains l’ont avancé, mais au contraire par une perte de pertinence de l’EURIBOR. Construisant une alternative à l’EURIBOR, ce chapitre conclut que le risque bancaire a eu une influence primordiale sur le niveau de rémunération des dépôts dans le monde d’après-crise
This thesis deals with the new debates on central banking which arose after the 2008 global financial crisis. More particularly, two of such debates are addressed: the debates on the financial losses in central banks’ balance sheets, and the debates on the high level of bank rates compared to market interest rates following the financial crisis. The two first chapters are related to the first debate. The link between central bank financial strength and inflation is empirically examined in a large sample of 82 countries. Theoretically, this link is potentially present when the government does not fiscally support the central bank, so that the central bank can only rely on itself to improve its financial situation. The results show that in practice central bank balance sheet deteriorations indeed lead to higher inflation when fiscal support is absent. The results, based on a particularly meticulous and consistent sample selection, do not show the presence of a link between the two variables in a general context, as the theory suggests. In the second chapter, I analyze and conceptualize the argument according to which a central bank can end a peg exchange rate regime by fear of making significant losses in the future, and I apply this analysis to the Swiss franc peg between 2011 and 2015. This argument was brought forward by many commentators to explain the Swiss move, while no research before this one did study the relevance of this argument. The empirical estimates in Chapter 2 show that this argument indeed had some credibility: under some credible scenarios the Swiss central bank would have incurred significant losses by breaking its peg 17 months later, with losses exceeding a threshold judged as relevant by many central bankers. The last chapter of this thesis focuses on the spread between deposit rates and market interest rates in the Eurozone (more specifically, the EURIBOR), which became significantly positive after the financial crisis, leading some commentators to claim that deposits were over-remunerated. This chapter upholds that the major part of this spread is not due to an « abnormal » behavior of deposits but is rather due to the fact that the EURIBOR has become irrelevant after the global financial crisis. Building an alternative to the EURIBOR, the chapter concludes that banking risks have been having a major influence on the level of deposit remuneration

Cette thèse étudie deux grandes problématiques économiques étant étroitement liées. D’une part, il est question d’analyser à quelles conditions les taux de change présentent des relations de long terme communes. D’autre part, une analyse en profondeur concernant les investissements sur devises connus sous le terme anglais de « carry trades » est proposée. Le taux de change étant un des déterminants du rendement de ces investissements, le lien entre les deux problématiques apparaît clairement. Ces problématiques sont traitées à travers la mobilisation d’outils théoriques et empiriques. Ce travail aboutit à plusieurs conclusions. Concernant les mouvements communs de long terme entre les taux de change, ils dépendent du degré d’intégration des économies ainsi que de la similarité de leurs politiques monétaires. Concernant les investissements sur devises, cette thèse démontre que les banques centrales des petites économies ouvertes ont tout intérêt à fixer une cible d’inflation ainsi qu’une cible d’afflux de capitaux afin d’éviter l’effet déstabilisateur des « carry trades ». Cette politique sera efficace uniquement si la banque centrale est transparente concernant ses cibles de long terme. Pour finir, après la crise financière de 2008, la banque centrale Néo-Zélandaise a changé de comportement vis-à-vis des « carry trades » en provenance du Japon. En effet, après la crise, la banque centrale y a répondu de manière à stabiliser l’économie. Cependant, les investissements en provenance des Etats-Unis sont toujours déstabilisateurs pour l’économie Néo-Zélandaise, surtout lorsque les Etats-Unis utilisent une politique d’assouplissement quantitatif
This thesis investigates two main issues in economics. On the one hand, we investigate under which conditions cointegration between exchange rates is likely to appear. On the other hand, this thesis proposes to investigate how carry trades affect small open economies. Given that the exchange rate is a main determinant of carry trades’ returns, these two topics are obviously linked. These two issues are investigated both through theoretical and empirical tools. Concerning long run comovements between exchange rates, this thesis reveals that they depend on the degree of linkages between two economies and on the way central banks set their monetary policies. Concerning carry trades, this work sheds light on the fact that small open economies central banks should have both an inflation and a capital inflows target to suppress the destabilizing effect of carry trades. Moreover, such a policy would be efficient only if the central banks are transparent concerning their long run targets. Finally, in this thesis we show that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has changed its reaction to Japan-sourced carry trades after the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Indeed, after the GFC, the RBNZ responded in a stabilizing way to Japan-sourced carry trades. However, after the GFC, the RBNZ still responded in a destabilizing way to US-sourced carry trades. Our work also reveals that carry trades destabilize even more New-Zealand’s economy when the US are engaged in a quantitative easing policy

This dissertation studies the role of sterling during the Bretton Woods period (1944-1971). The Bretton Woods system has often been described as a dollar system with sterling having lost its relevance as reserve currency. However, despite being a secondary reserve currency and having lost importance, sterling was the 'first line of defence for the dollar' as contemporaries put it. They frequently stressed the fact that a sterling crisis would have consequences on the stability of the Bretton Woods system but economic historians have never tested this empirically. This dissertation argues that sterling played an important role in the stability of the international monetary system. Foreign exchange market participants globally monitored sterling and US policymaker stepped in to avoid devaluation of the British currency. US support to sterling was mainly due to the fear of a British devaluation, which could trigger a run on the dollar. When the UK finally devalued the pound in 1967, it marked the beginning of an instable period for the international monetary system. The Gold Pool, a syndicate to defend the US gold parity, collapsed in 1968 and this prefigured the end of the Bretton Woods system. This dissertation presents new data along with novel archival material from seven archives across continents to demonstrate how contagion from sterling to the dollar occurred. Modern econometric methods are used to analyse a new dataset with over 80,000 observations of offshore exchange rates, central bank intervention and reserves. This evidence shows that a secondary reserve currency can still play a key role in the stability of the international monetary system.

The aim of the thesis "Banking union" is to analyze and describe the concept of banking union, with respect to development and harmonization of rules before crisis. In addition to description of 4 pillars of Banking union the thesis tries to reveal the risks connected with rules harmonization and power centralization in hands of ECB. The obligatory membership is conditioned by common currency Euro, therefore there is an opportunity to analyze the potential benefits for states with own currency. This will be done in separate chapter 4th using Czech Republic as example. Thesis will be also enriched with opinion of politics and economist to which own authors comment will be added.

Never before in history has the amount of international trade been higher or more efficient than it is today. The fastest growing type of trade is the speculative currency trading, searching for instant profit based only on the anticipation of the variations in currency exchange rates. When currency speculation becomes an influential part of the capital flows it becomes harmful and creates instability of currency systems. Exchange rates starts to fluctuate due to the will and anticipation of speculators rather than the economic health of the country associated with the currency. This has led to recurring currency crises all over the world and an increased interest in regulatory mechanisms. One of the most discussed mechanisms proposed to handle this harmful evolution of the foreign exchange markets is the Currency Transaction Tax (CTT). The CTT stipulates a low tax (0.1 per cent) on all currency transaction to curb the incitement of short-term speculation based on a large amount of smaller transactions. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether an implementation of a CTT is compatible with the EU treaties. This purpose consists of two research questions; whether the CTT is in conformity with the substantive law of the EU, more precisely the free movements of capital, and if the CTT is in conformity with the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the exclusive power of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) over monetary policy. Since this thesis aims to identify if the CTT is in conformity with existing legislation, the traditional doctrinal method is used for identifying and analysing potential difficulties with the CTT and to interpret these provisions in the light of ECJ case law and literature. The thesis concludes that the CTT is in conformity with the EU treaties. It does however require the full cooperation of the ESCB and ECB to achieve the objectives; to create a more stable currency market. The CTT is ready to implement.

Mestrado em Finanças
Este trabalho propõe uma reflexão sobre a génese do problema das bolhas especulativas num contexto de crescente integração dos mercados, a uma escala global. Esta abordagem compreende duas dimensões: na primeira, considera-se um regime de políticas internas e suas implicações nas estruturas de capital domésticas; na segunda, considera-se o papel desempenhado pelo sistema monetário e financeiro internacional como veículo disseminador, igualmente amplificando, para a escala internacional estas mesmas políticas domésticas. Este trabalho destaca as dinâmicas entre Economias Desenvolvidas e Economias de Mercados Emergentes recorrendo à função desempenhada pelos fluxos de capitais internacionais como veículo de transmissão das diferentes políticas monetárias. Este trabalho recorre à Teoria de Capital Austríaca para explicar o processo de criação de riqueza, e utiliza posteriormente a Teoria Austríaca do Ciclo Economico, desenvolvido por Ludwig von Mises e Friedrich A. Hayek, por forma a explicar as distorções que a manipulação monetária exerce no eficiente processo de mercado de alocação de recursos. Pelo que nos foi possível apurar, tal abordagem não foi ainda explorada sob esta perspectiva, particularmente se tivermos em consideração a ligação entre distorções monetárias internas entre as grandes Economias Desenvolvidas e as Economias Emergentes, assim como o seu impacto à escala global, sendo esta a contribuição especifica deste trabalho.
This work proposes a reflection on the genesis of the problem of asset bubbles while integrating it in the context of the globalized market. We look at the problem on two dimensions: first, through the domestic policy regimes and its implications in the domestic capital structure; second, considering the role that the international monetary and financial system performs as a vehicle disseminating to the world, and amplifying, these same domestic policy measures. In this context, the dynamics between advanced economies and emergent market economies is highlighted resorting to the role played by international capital flows as a monetary policy-disseminating vehicle. We carry this exposition based on the Austrian Capital Theory to explain how the wealth creation process should be supported by an efficient market capital structure, and then we make use of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, as developed by Ludwig von Mises and later by Friedrich A. Hayek, to explain the distortions that the monetary manipulation exerts on the efficient market process of resource allocation. As far as we know, such an approach has not yet been explored within this perspective, particularly regarding the link of domestic monetary distortions between both, big developed and emergent economies, and their global impact, and this is the specific contribution of the present work.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Moretti
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matemática, Estatística e Computação Científica
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T22:02:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gratz_LiviaBastos_M.pdf: 1931012 bytes, checksum: 88af4d5b57969faa790a1885c6dacc31 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012
Resumo: Para a existência de um sistema financeiro sólido e estável é essencial que as instituições financeiras gerenciem bem os seus riscos. A partir da publicação dos Acordos de Basileia, as autoridades supervisoras passaram a exigir a alocação de um capital regulamentar proporcional aos riscos incorridos por cada instituição. O capital regulamentar busca garantir a existência de recursos suficientes para a absorção de perdas inesperadas e seu cálculo considera os riscos de crédito, mercado e operacional. Para o gerenciamento do risco de mercado, as instituições utilizam modelos internos baseados em VaR - Value at Risk. Porém, algumas das parcelas do modelo padronizado adotado para o cálculo do capital regulamentar baseiam-se na metodologia Maturity Ladder. O primeiro modelo é mais sensível ao risco e varia conforme a volatilidade dos ativos. O segundo é menos sensível ao risco e baseia-se nos conceitos de Duration. O objetivo desse trabalho é a redefinição dos parâmetros utilizados no método Maturity Ladder de forma a aproximá-lo aos modelos baseados em VaR. Para a minimização das diferenças entre as metodologias foi utilizado um modelo de otimização baseado em Algoritmo Genético. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que os dois métodos não são totalmente comparáveis e a existência de casos extremos independentemente da escolha dos parâmetros
Abstract: For the existence of a solid and stable financial system is essential that the financial institutions manage their risks. Since the publication of the Basel Accords, supervisory authorities started demanding the allocation of a regulatory capital proportional to the risks incurred by each institution. The regulatory capital aims to ensure the existence of sufficient resources to absorb unexpected losses resulting from credit, market and operational risks. Institutions use internal models based on VaR - Value at Risk to manage the market risk. However, for some risk factors, the standardized model adopted for regulatory capital measurement is based on the Maturity Ladder methodology. The first model is risk-sensitive and varies according to asset volatility. The second is less sensitive to risk and is based on the Duration theories. The objective of this work is the redefinition of the parameters used in the Maturity Ladder methodology in order to bring their outcomes closer to the models based on VaR. To minimize the differences among the methodologies were used an optimization model based on Genetic Algorithm. The results suggest that the two methods are not completely comparable and the existence of extreme cases regardless of the parameters choice
Mestrado
Matematica Aplicada
Mestra em Matemática Aplicada

After the global financial crisis, central banks have changed attitudes towards gold and have unconventional policy measures, in addition to conventional interest rate cuts. With these measures central banks aimed to support financial stability, and to reduce to potential adverse effects from international capital flows. From the perspective of investors and central banks gold positions and gold reserves are still significant and debatable issues. The purpose of this study is to investigate the composition of central bank reserves the period of 2008 and 2018. In this paper, generally we compared gold reserve holdings of major central banks with Turkey. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has increased gold reserves especially since 2002. With implementing effective policies, CBRT has increased gold holdings in international reserves. CBRT is one of the countries with the highest share of gold reserves in the world.

In this paper, we investigate the recent monetary policies and development of Turkish banking system during the post 2001 financial and banking crisis. We explore the effects of capital inflows and outflows to real exchange rates and the real stock market prices, before and after the financial crisis. We investigate the relationship between real exchange rate, real stock prices and capital flows. We decompose the foreign flows into real assets and liabilities, in order to investigate the possible long-term effect of inflows and outflows. Reversal of capital flow seems to create a possibility of exchange rate crisis. The Turkish Central Bank by taking lessons from this experience they formulate their recent policies accordingly. Recent Monetary Policy mix in Turkey aims to have financial stability by increasing the reserve ratio in each component of capital flows in Turkey. The ratio increases shorter the period of the asset. The Central Bank work claims to have an effect similar to inflation targeting.

This study is found to find out how Weighted Average Funding Cost, which is new policy tool implemented by The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) in 2011, weighted average funding cost -aiming at removing the ambiguities seen in the financial variables and minimizing the effect of capital movements on these variables is reviewed. In this study, the effects of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on BIST100 index, BISTXBANK index and exchange rate are tested by Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF), ML-GARCH and DCC GARCH models based on ENGLE, R.F. and SHEPPARD, K. (2001). According to the findings obtained, it is concluded that the decisions of the Weighted Average Funding Cost related to Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBTR) lending and borrowing interest rates are direct effective on BIST100 index, BISTXBANK index but indirect with Exchange rate.

The article refers the issues of structural capital in Poland, measured by the number of the organization and an indicator of the number of organizations per 10 thousand inhabitants. Deliberations for this component of social capital were conducted at the regional level (NUTS 2). Spatial disparities and the differences between urban and rural areas in 2005–2014 were determined. Data source was a Local Data Bank prepared by Central Statistical Office of Poland. It was a clear regional differences in terms of the activity of foundations and social organizations. In all voivodeships saw an increase in the number of foundations and associations per 10 thousand inhabitants in the analyzed period, both in urban and in rural areas. In rural areas the increase was much greater than in the towns. In comparison with rural areas, a higher level of the structural social capital was observed in towns.

While most recent central bank’s foreign-exchange interventions have been directed at mitigating speculative currency pressures and reducing risks to price instability, as well as curbing volatility in capital flows, the good governance implementation plays significant role in making the foreign-exchange operations done in efficient and effective way. For Bank Indonesia, the implementation of foreign exchange policy strategy followed governance principle is essential and geared toward price and financial system stability. In practice, the objective is reached through foreign-exchange intervention policy combined with other monetary and macroprudential policy called policy mix.

The aim of this study is to empirically test the relations between the FDI in Turkey's manufacturing industry and the imports of intermediate and capital goods. Monthly data for the period 2005-2016 belonging to the variables used in the study were obtained from the "Electronic Data Distribution System" of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. In the determination of the period of the study, the presence of monthly data and the increase trend of the FDI coming to Turkey after 2005 have been influential. Relations between variables in the study were tried to be determined by Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. According to the empirical findings obtained in the study, one-way and statistically significant causal relations from FDI made in manufacturing industry to both capital goods imports and intermediate imports have been determined. However, from these relations, towards to intermediate imports is much more robust in terms of statistics. Therefore, these findings obtained from the study shows that FDI on Turkey's manufacturing industry are an important determinant of capital goods, and especially intermediate goods imports.

Relating to the establishment and acquisition of a company in Turkey by foreign investors, Foreign Direct Investments Law No.4875, FDI has entered into force on 17.06.2003. FDI formed a notification-based system rather than an approval-based system for foreigners to establish a new company and to take over company shares. Accordingly, company information regarding foreign investors will be notified to the General Directorate of Incentive Implementation and Foreign Capital via “Electronic Incentive Implementation and Foreign Capital Information System”. Foreign investment means establishment of a new company by a foreign investor or share acquisitions of an existing company, any percentage of shares acquired outside the stock exchange or 10 percentage or more of the shares/voting power of a company acquired through the stock exchange, by means of the following economic assets: assets acquired from abroad by the foreign investor which are capital in cash in the form of convertible currency bought and sold by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, stocks and bonds of foreign companies excluding government bonds, machinery and equipment, industrial and intellectual property rights; or assets acquired from Turkey by foreign investor which are reinvested earnings, revenues, financial claims, or any other investment-related rights of financial value, rights for the exploration and extraction of natural resources. According to Article 4 of the Regulation for Implementation of Foreign Direct Investment Law, the Ministry of Economy shall provide information on the companies within the scope of foreign direct investments from Trade Registry Offices and related public institutions and organizations.

Purpose – the main aim of the study is an assessment of the banking sector in Poland, including the size of the sector, banking institutions forming the sector and consolidation processes taking place in the sector against the background of banking sectors in other countries. The paper also indicates ownership changes as a consequence of consolidation processes in the banking sectors after the global financial crisis of 2008−2012. Research methodology – the following research methods were used: cause and effect analysis, comparative analysis, case studies, observation method, secondary data analysis, and synthesis method. Findings – the research allowed to find out that the banking sector in Poland is growing at a rate significantly exceeding the growth rate in other European countries. However, rapid development does not mean a radical increase in the importance of this sector in Europe. Concentration ratios of the Polish banking sector show continuous but slight increases, although their level is still quite low compared to other European Union countries. Moreover, in Poland, a decreasing number of banks, observed in recent years, reduces a share of foreign investors in the structure of the sector. This means a high activity of domestic investors in taking over bank capital. Research limitations – the main research limitation is that the study mainly focuses on changes as well as comparative analysis of the concentration ratio (CR5). While further research should be expanded by more measures to compare ownership structure and the profitability of Polish and the European Unionʼs banking sectors. Practical implications – the results might be useful for central banks and supervisory authorities when it comes to their role in changes in the ownership structure of banking sectors. Originality/Value – the main value of the article is the in-depth analysis of the ownership structure of the Polish banking sector in the background of the European ones

Sudden fluctuations that occur as results of politicians’ manipulation on the macroeconomic variables during the election period are called as Political Business Cycle. In recent years, exchange rate also has become an important subject of many studies in this framework. Before the elections, to gain the public’s votes, politicians firstly put pressure on the exchange rates to prevent currency depreciation, and then this can lead to manipulative fluctuations. In this respect, during the 1992:01-2014:12 periods in Turkey, the impact of the entire local and general elections on the real exchange rate volatility is examined using E-GARCH method. On the other hand, political variables such as independence of Central Bank, exchange rate regime, the number of representatives of the ruling party in the parliament and coalition are included to the model while the pre and after election period from the 1st to the 6th month as dummy variables. Based on the results of the analysis, it can be said that the elections and the political variables affect the real exchange rate and its volatility in Turkey. However, there is no significant evidence whether the politicians act opportunistic behavior to be reelected. Since the uncertainty during the election period cause outflow of the capital and deferral of the investment decisions of the investors until after the election, it may well be said that the politicians fail to influence the real exchange rate for their self-interests.

According to the World Bank (2015) Africa’s urbanization rate has surpassed other parts of the world. It is believed that by 2030, over 50% of Africans will reside in Urban Centres. Kenya is among the African counties that has experienced a tremendous increase in her urban population. This is most visible in the capital, the primate city of Nairobi. The growth has led to increased pressure on basic needs like housing, transport, water, education and security. Coupled with unequal economic development and social benefits, the result has been the tremendous expansion of informal sectors across fields. To respond to some of this pressure, the central government has vowed initiate large projects in housing, transport, water and others (Republic of Kenya, 2018). Newly enacted legislation also provides for the establishment of multi-sectoral urban boards to oversee the delivery of some services. Among the major projects coming up include Affordable Housing schemes and Mass Rapid Transport investments such as Bus Rapid Transit and expanded commuter rail systems. However, experience from the past both in Nairobi and other Cities has taught us the importance of inclusion, empathy and participation in such projects. Recent times have shown that public projects tend to ignore these and other key elements leading to massive failure of investment. The paper investigates case studies from similar projects in other parts of Africa, Bus Rapid Transit Projects in Lagos, Dar es Salaam and South African Cities; past Slum Upgrading and Housing Projects in Nairobi and other parts of the continent. The research methods also involve data collection on inclusion and participation from those who are affected directly by these proposed projects as well as the impacts that previous projects have had. The results from the study show that without proper communication and participation there are several misunderstandings on liveable spaces in cities. These include misinterpretations of the challenge’s citizens face, on the intentions of proposed solutions as well as the socioeconomic decision-making process of citizens. The implication of this leaves an unhealthy competition between existing informal ‘structures’ in various sectors against the new government driven proposals. The results are that those meant to benefit end up not being the primary beneficiaries. In conclusion, the role of putting people primarily as the centre objective of planning remains critical and key. For African planners, diverting from this will increase the existing inequalities and lead to further social divisions.

This paper studies from an empirical and theoretical perspective the systemic and bank-level effects of imposing reserve requirements (RR) in foreign currency in an economy with a heavily dollarized financial system. The paper empirically characterizes banks responses to the RR carried out by the Peruvian Central Bank since 2008 with the objective of stabilizing the financial market and meeting its policy targets. The results suggest that the RR is effective in reducing the overall level of credit in the economy and that banks response in terms of credit and deposits is very heterogeneous depending on their ex ante preference for foreign funding ratio, i.e., the ratio of deposits in dollars to total loans. Motivated by the empirical insights, the paper builds a DSGE small-open-economy model with financial frictions à la Gertler-Karadi-Kiyotaki, where bank heterogeneity and financial dollarization are introduced to evaluate the effectiveness of the differential RR in reducing financial dollarization and improving financial resilience.

We develop a small open economy model with nominal rigidities and fragmented labor markets to study the response of the monetary policy to a migration shock. Migrants are characterized by their productivity levels, their restrictions to accumulate capital, as well as by the flexibility of their labor income. Our results show that the monetary policy response depends on the characteristics of migrants and the local labor market. An inflow of low(high)-productivity workers reduces(increases) marginal costs, lowers(raises) inflation expectations and pushes the Central Bank to reduce(increase) the interest rate. The model is calibrated to the Colombian economy and used to analyze a migratory inflow of financially constraint workers from Venezuela into a sector with flexible and low wages.

Well-being is a common human aspiration. Governments and states, too, seek to promote and ensure the well-being of their citizens; some even argue that this should be their overarching goal. But it is not enough for a country to flourish, and for its citizens to enjoy well-being, if the situation cannot be maintained over the long term. Well-being must be sustainable. The state needs criteria for assessing the well-being of its citizens, so that it can work to raise the well-being level. Joining many other governments around the world, the Israeli government adopted a comprehensive set of indices for measuring well-being in 2015. Since 2016, the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics has been publishing the assessment results on an annual basis. Having determined that the monitoring of well-being in Israel should employ complementary indices relating to its sustainability, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Bank of Israel, the Central Bureau of Statistics, and Yad Hanadiv asked the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities to establish an expert committee to draft recommendations on this issue. The Academy's assistance was sought in recognition of its statutory authority "to advise the government on activities relating to research and scientific planning of national significance." The Committee was appointed by the President of the Academy, Professor Nili Cohen, in March 2017; its members are social scientists spanning a variety of disciplines. This report presents the Committee's conclusions. Israel's ability to ensure the well-being of its citizens depends on the resources or capital stocks available to it, in particular its economic, natural, human, social, and cultural resources. At the heart of this report are a mapping of these resources, and recommendations for how to measure them.

Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter’s recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.