Academic literature on the topic 'Certainty of price'

While a firm knows the carbon price with certainty under a tax, it must form an expectation about future allowance prices to identify its cost-effective abatement investment under a capand-trade program. We illustrate graphically how errors in forming this expectation increase the costs of irreversible pollution abatement investment under cap-and-trade relative to a tax. We describe empirical “cost-effectiveness anomalies” in allowance markets that may be attributed to cap-and-trade's inherent uncertainty. We model investment under simulated US carbon tax and cap-and-trade policies and find that allowance price uncertainty can increase resource costs 20 percent for a given quantity of emission abatement.

The exegesis, which had been taken clearly proves about the abrupt growth of entities providing professional legal assistance. Such tendency has permanent character, confirms the thesis that there has been a chronic shortage of such services in Poland, while the growth of the number of entities providing legal services certainly enforces price adjustment, increasing the range of beneficiaries of legal aid, however this trend does not correlate with certainty with scope qualitative examination of legal services.

The existing system of bids evaluation in the construction industry does not bring the clients the certainty if all placed bids comprise real, achievable prices. Especially in the road construction sector, where the earthworks create significant part of the works, comparing e.g. the price of 1 km of roads often gives misleading results. The paper comprises the complete proposal to modify the scope of information provided by offerors in the public procurements (in the construction industry) allowing the clients to determine easily if the contractors have placed the consistent offers i.e. if the bid prices are not too high and if the lowest bid price is not a dumping price. The Conjugated Triangle Method (CTM) of inconsistent bid detection in construction industry is based on the three inter-related parameters: means of production, time of works, on the value of works. Regardless of the offered price it should match the other two parameters.

Purpose While previous literature focusses on the impact of unit pricing on the customer level by analysing customer awareness and product choice, the present research aims to highlight the impact unit pricing has at the store level. Design/methodology/approach The impact of unit pricing on the store price image is investigated in two experiments. While the first experiment assesses the general influence of unit price presence and unit price prominence on store price image, the second experiment provides further insights into the influence of unit price prominence on store price image and shopping intentions under consideration of moderating variables. Findings This research demonstrates that the availability of unit prices influences several store price image dimensions positively, namely, price processibility, price perceptibility and evaluation certainty. There is also an indirect positive effect on value-for-money perception. Furthermore, unit price prominence has a positive effect on the dimension price processibility. There is a positive influence of unit price presence and unit price prominence on the consumers’ intention to shop at a given store through the store price image. Originality/value This paper adds to the existing unit price and store price image literature and derives implications for retailers as well as for policymakers regarding the presentation of unit prices on price labels. Policymakers can use the results for motivating retailers to use unit price information more actively and present it more prominently beyond the minimum regulatory standards.

The unilateral determination of price has been a controversial issue for an extended period of time. During the 1990s the Supreme Court of Appeal asked if the rule should still form part of South African law. Specifically, the court raised a few questions in respect of the rule and commented that the rule as applied in South African law is illogical. The court also remarked that public policy, bona fides and contractual equity might also be employed when considering such issues. Despite the criticisms of the Supreme Court of Appeal, it would seem that the rule still forms part of our law. This article investigates whether or not the rule should be retained in the South African common law. The answer will depend on two separate questions: Is the rule a manifestation of the requirement of certainty of price? If not, does public policy require that the rule be retained? The article shows that the rule prohibiting the unilateral determination of price should not be seen as a manifestation of the requirement of certainty of price. This is because there are various circumstances where the unilateral determination of the price results in certainty of price or can be applied in such a way as to arrive at certainty of price. Most of these arguments require that the discretion to determine the price should not be unfettered and should be subject to some objective standard. This can be done expressly or tacitly in the contract, or an objective standard (in the form of reasonableness) will be implied by law. Thereafter, the article considers various public policy considerations that could be used to determine if a discretion to determine the price should be enforced. The article argues that public policy may dictate that such a discretion should be valid and enforceable provided that it is not unfettered and subject to an external objective standard or reasonableness. However, in cases where an unfair bargaining position is present, public policy may dictate otherwise. The article accepts that whether a term providing for the unilateral determination of the price would be contrary to public policy or not will depend on the facts of the case. However, it is submitted that, at a minimum, the considerations and factors discussed in the article should be taken into account when making such an assessment.

The insanity defence in Canada is defined by the use of Section 16 of the Criminal Code. Legal sanity is determined by the application of an outdated set of rules which require only that the accused be able to determine right from wrong in the particular circumstances that appear to have applied at the time of the alleged offence. The actual application of the defence suggests that its interpretation in practice is considerably affected by factors other than the mental state of the accused. The arbitrary and ill-understood nature of these interposed factors removes any certainty that justice, or the well-being of the accused, is to be found by use of the existing law. Psychiatry should not rest content that its understanding of the determinants of human behavior is in any way accurately represented by Canada's Criminal Code.

ABSTRACT We explore how risk aversion affects optimal capacity and pricing decisions within the economic setting of Banker and Hughes (1994). A risk-averse firm invests in fixed capacity and sets a product price, but can also purchase spot capacity at higher unit cost. Initial capacity and price are set by maximizing the firm's mean-variance certainty equivalent. We find that, contrary to common intuition, optimal capacity or list prices can increase under greater risk aversion depending on exogenous fundamentals. We show how the firm's capacity and price choices affect the economic trade-off between the mean and the risk of the firm's uncertain payoffs. We also show that the cost of capital is affected not only by the firm's covariance with other assets, but also by its payoff mean. The objective of minimizing the cost of capital is, therefore, fundamentally inconsistent with maximizing project value.

A bank, acting as a central planner under aggregate full certainty, optimizes liquidity allocation by sharing risk between discrete number of depositors. This paper demonstrates the following. (a) It is sufficient to rule out a bank run if all depositors inform the bank their types, patient or impatient, in advance, in a noncommittal manner. There cannot be a bank run because depositors’ strategic behaviour induces the bank to act as a central planner under aggregate full certainty. (b) The impossibility of a bank run is consistent with the price mechanism in partial equilibrium; but it may be inconsistent with the price mechanism in general disequilibrium. (c) The paper concludes that the management of risk sharing by banks is not a cause for bank runs.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1985.
MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY.
Bibliography: leaves 82-90.
by Paul Stuart Geller.
M.S.

The key objective of this thesis is the outline of an alternative capital market modeling framework, the Volatility Asset Pricing Model, VAPM, inspired by the innovative dual approach of Mandelbrot and Hudson using the method based on synthesis of two seemingly antagonistic factors -- the volatility of market prices and their serial dependence determining the capital markets' dynamics. The pilot tests of this model in various periods using the market index as well as a portfolio of selected securities delivered generally satisfactory results. Firstly, the work delivers a brief recapitulation regarding the concepts of a consumer/investor choice under general conditions of hypothetical certainty. Secondly, this outline is then followed by a description of the "classical" methodologies in the risky environment of uncertainty, with assessment of their corresponding key models, i.e. the CAPM, SIM, MIM, APTM, etc., notwithstanding results of the related testing approaches. Thirdly, this assessment is based on evaluation of the underlying doctrine of Efficient Market Hypothesis in relation to the so called Random Walk Model. Fourthly, in this context the work also offers a brief exposure to a few selected tests of these contraversial concepts. Fifthly, the main points of conteporary approaches such as the Fractal Dimension and the Hurst Exponent in the dynamic framework of information entropy are subsequently described as the theoretical tools leading to development of the abovementioned model VAPM. The major contribution of this thesis is considered its attempt to apply the abovementioned concepts in practice, with the intention to possibly inspire a further analytical research.

Modele mathematique d'analyse des couts et des benefices des systemes d'information; une organisation y est representee comme un ensemble de composantes inter reliees, ou on exploite plusieurs systemes. Chaque systeme peut etre execute par diverses techniques, dans toute (ou plusieurs) composante(s). Des couts et des benefices sont associes avec l'execution de tout systeme dans toute composante. Les principales classes de couts correspondent aux appareils informatiques et au personnel utilisateur. Les expressions de couts et de benefices servent au calcul d'indicateurs micro-economiques. Complete par la prise en compte d'aspects humains et politiques, le modele peut etre utilise comme outil de support a la gestion strategique de l'informatisation

Diploma thesis examines and assesses the process of recruitment, selection and hiring of students and graduates through development and training programs by the example of selected companies. The work consists of two parts - theoretical and practical one. The theoretical part describes types, content and basic properties of graduate recruitment development trainee programs for recent graduates and final year students. Practical part describes the programs and selection process for the programs by examples of international companies such as AB InBev, DHL and L'oreal. In final chapter of practical part there is a comparison of listed programs, author's advices and recommendations acquired during the selection process for development and training programs to listed companies. The work will be completed with author's conclusions.

Les accords de pêche bilatéraux entre l’Union européenne (UE) et les pays tiers sont, depuis l’origine, un élément de la politique commune de la pêche (PCP). La réforme de la PCP intervenue en 2002 a introduit la notion de partenariat, destinée à mettre l’accent sur l’objectif de l’UE de soutenir le développement du secteur national de la pêche dans ses pays partenaires. En 2004, ces accords ont pris la dénomination d’accords de partenariat de pêche (APP). L’engagement de l’UE de promouvoir une pêche responsable et durable partout où les navires européens pêchent dans le monde est à la base de cette approche de partenariat. Ces accords sont principalement conclus avec des États d’Afrique (ainsi que des États du Pacifique et avec le Groenland). Outils de coopération, ils ont vocation à ancrer les accords d’accès aux ressources halieutiques dans une logique de développement durable, afin de contribuer à l’amélioration de la gestion des pêches dans les pays partenaires de l’UE. Après plusieurs années de mise en pratique de ces APP, et à l’aune de leur réforme, dans le cadre de la réforme de la PCP, l’heure est au bilan. Il convient de savoir s’ils ont rempli leurs objectifs et réellement contribué à l’instauration de pratiques de pêche plus responsables dans les pays tiers
Bilateral fisheries agreements between the European Union (EU) and third countries have always been a feature of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). The 2002 reform of the CFP introduced the concept of partnership, to emphasize the EU’s intention to support the development of the national fisheries sector in its partner countries. Since 2004, they have been known as Fisheries partnership agreements (FPAs). Underpinning the partnership approach is the EU’s commitment to promote responsible and sustainable fisheries wherever European vessels fish throughout the world. Mainly signed with African countries (and also with States in the Pacific Ocean and Greenland), they are cooperation tools designed to build sustainable development in fisheries access agreements in order to enhance fisheries management. After few years of practice of the FPAs, and by the yardstick of their reform, within the reform of the CFP, it is time for evaluation. It should be assessed whether or not they fulfilled their objectives and if they indeed contributed to the implementation of more responsible behaviours in fishing activities in third countries

Développé en 2015, l’Emotion Imbued Choice (EIC ; Lerner et al., 2015) explique la manière dont les émotions influencent la prise de décision. Selon ce modèle, les émotions incidentes (non reliées à la décision) associées à un haut degré de certitude déclencheraient un traitement plutôt heuristique de l’information tandis que les émotions associées à un haut degré d’incertitude déclencheraient un traitement plutôt délibératif (Tiedens & Linton, 2001), expliquant des différences de performances dans les tâches de prise de décision.L’influence des émotions incidentes a été étudiée dans la prise de décision unique et dans la prise séquentielle de décisions (i.e., séries de décisions). Si l’EIC, fournit un cadre explicatif clair concernant la prise de décision unique, ses prédictions sont moins explicites quant à la prise séquentielle de décisions. Cette dernière présente la particularité que chaque décision est suivie d’un feedback (gain ou perte) ayant une valeur émotionnelle (positive vs. négative). Cette source d’influence émotionnelle intégrée (reliée à la décision) peut modifier les décisions suivantes. Des auteurs ont observé que le déclenchement d’un traitement de l’information plutôt heuristique conduit les participants à prendre des décisions plus avantageuses que le déclenchement d’un traitement de l’information plutôt délibératif (Bagneux et al. 2013 ; voir aussi Bollon & Bagneux, 2013). Toutefois, l’implication du traitement de la valeur émotionnelle des feedbacks dans l’obtention de ce pattern de résultats n’a, à ce jour, pas reçu de confirmation directe.Notre objectif était d’identifier la manière dont les émotions incidentes, en fonction de leur degré de certitude, modulent la prise séquentielle de décisions. Au travers d’une série de sept expériences, nous avons montré comment ces émotions incidentes interagissent avec l’influence émotionnelle intégrée des feedbacks. Ainsi, seul le déclenchement d’un traitement plutôt heuristique conduit les participants à moduler leurs décisions en fonction du type (positifs vs. négatifs) de feedbacks reçus. Ces résultats concernent les tâches de prise séquentielle de décisions ambigües et risquées. La modulation du pattern de prise de décision a été mise en évidence, de manière classique, lors de l’induction d’émotions incidentes négatives et, de manière plus originale, lors de l’induction d’émotions incidentes positives. En second lieu, l’analyse des résultats et de la littérature a mis en évidence la fiabilité médiocre de la mesure du degré de certitude. Une série de six autres études, s’inscrivant dans la méthodologie générale de construction d’échelles, a été réalisée afin d’en recherche les origines. Nous avons montré que cette faible fiabilité était la double conséquence d’une définition incomplète et d’une opérationnalisation imparfaite de la dimension de certitude. À un niveau théorique, nous proposons que l’ensemble de nos résultats supportent la nécessité d’étendre le modèle EIC à la prise séquentielle de décisions. Sur le plan méthodologique, nos résultats justifient l’intérêt de développer un nouvel outil de mesure du degré de certitude
Established in 2015, the Emotion Imbued Choice (EIC; Lerner et al., 2015) explains how emotions influence decision making. According to this model, incidental emotions (not related to the decision) associated with a high degree of certainty would trigger a heuristic information processing (Tiedens & Linton, 2001). In contrast, incidental emotions associated with a high level of uncertainty would trigger a deliberative information processing. This would explain the difference in performance on decision-making task.The influence of incidental emotions has been studied in one-shot decision and sequential decision making (i.e., sequence of decisions). While the EIC provides a clear and powerful framework for one-shot decision, its predictions are less explicit for sequential decision making. The particularity of this type of decision is that each decision is followed by a feedback (gain or loss) with an emotional cue (positive vs. negative). This integral source (related to the decision) of emotional influence can modify the subsequent decisions. Researchers have observed that the initiation of a heuristic processing leads participants to make more advantageous decisions than the initiation of a deliberative ones (Bagneux et al., 2012; Bagneux et al., 2013; Bollon & Bagneux, 2013). However, the impact of the processing of the emotional cue associated with feedbacks in obtaining this pattern of result has not yet been directly confirmed.Our objective was to identify how incidental emotions, based on their degree of certainty, modulate sequential decision making. Through a series of seven experiments, we have shown how incidental emotions interact with integral influence of feedbacks. Only the initiation of a heuristic processing leads participants to modulate their decisions according to the type of feedbacks received (positive vs. negative). These results concern both risky and ambiguous sequential decision making. The modulation of decision making has been highlighted, in a classic way, when inducing incidental negative emotions and, in a more original way, when inducing incidental positive emotions. The analysis of the results and the literature reveal difficulties in terms of the reliability of the measurement of the degree of certainty. A series of six other studies, in the general methodology of scale construction, investigated the origin of these difficulties. We have shown that these difficulties are the double consequence of an incomplete definition and an imperfect operationalization of the certainty appraisal dimension. From a theoretical level, we propose that all of our results support the need to extend the EIC to sequential decision making. From a methodological level, our results justify the interest of developing a new tool to measure the degree of certainty

This anthropological study focuses on people's subjective experiences of mental health problems in Quebec, and highlights the different processes involved in the narrativization and enunciation of the experience of psychiatric disorder. It was completed in Montreal in 2001, and included participant observation in three resources of the Regroupment des resouces alternatives en sante mentale du Quebec (RRASMQ). Nine people of Quebecois origin, users of these mental health services, were interviewed. After a brief survey of the literature concerned with the narrative transformation of experience and its expression in the social realm, this report identifies some of the narrative structures of the illness accounts that were collected for this project. I look, on the one hand, at the various languages used in the articulation of "mental illness", and on the other hand, at the power relations that are activated through the use of those languages. This study tries to determine to what extent it is possible for a sufferer of "mental illness" to empower him/herself through the narrativization and expression of one's experience of mental health problems.

Cette thèse prend en considération l’articulation des concepts de santé et d’autonomie dans une pratique clinique donnée, celle de la médecine interne en service hospitalier, et notamment dans le cadre des décisions médicales qui y sont prises et du « travail du soin » qui s’y déploie. Il s’agit de montrer en quoi, par son positionnement dans le paysage hospitalier, son champ d’application et l’approche globale et holistique dont elle se revendique, la médecine interne porte un regard particulier sur les problèmes cliniques qu’elle prend en charge et se donne la possibilité les appréhender dans leurs différentes dimensions. S’appuyant sur un travail de reconstitution de l’histoire de la médecine interne et de ses référents théoriques à partir de l’analyse de ses discours, d’une analyse conceptuelle des catégories d’autonomie, de santé et de décision et d’observations réalisées en service de médecine interne, cette étude se focalise sur un certain nombre de situations complexes - telles les situations de polypathologie ou de comorbidités - qui cristallisent notamment les difficultés liées à l’autonomie comme valeur morale et à l’application, dans le cadre des soins et des décisions, d’un « principe d’autonomie », mais questionnent également l’ « autonomie fonctionnelle » ou l’ « autonomie d’action » érigée en norme de soin, et pensée comme l’autre de la dépendance. Il apparaît que dans le soin qui leur est apporté et les décisions qui les concernent, différents sens de l’autonomie s’entrecroisent : le souci de l’autonomie fonctionnelle, la considération de l’autonomie sociale et de l’insertion dans des réseaux d’aides, de soutien, et de soins formels et informels, et les questions relatives à l’autodétermination et aux choix cruciaux concernant l’existence. Ces différents sens de l’autonomie s’entremêlent avec les considérations relatives à la santé des personnes soignées. Ces situations incitent alors à penser des formes différentes de santé et d’autonomies, qui prennent en compte les diverses dépendances qui permettent à la personne malade de conserver ce qui sera alors désigné comme une certaine « latitude de vie », qui englobe une certaine latitude décisionnelle dans les décisions qui les concernent. L’enjeu de ce travail réside dans la tentative de se donner concept positif de santé – qui ne réduise pas celle-ci à l’absence de maladie - qui fasse droit à l’autonomie entendue de manière plurielle et puisse faire l’objet d’un soin, même dans les situations d’états pathologiques durables. À partir d’un examen des conceptions des états de santé et des états pathologiques de Kurt Goldstein et Georges Canguilhem, nous déployons alors l’idée d’une forme de santé qui s’appréhende comme une « certaine latitude de vie », une latitude de vie susceptible de demeurer malgré les restrictions, les déficits, les dépendances induits par la maladie et d’être suscitée, maintenue et restaurée au travers de relations d’aide et de soin
This Ph. D analyses the way in which the concepts of health and autonomy are articulated in a given clinical practice, that of internal medicine in hospital care departments. It does so particularly in the context of medical decision-making and in the “travail du soin”, a phrase we may translate into English as “care endeavour”. The aim is to show how through its position in the hospital context, its field of application and the global and holistic approach it claims for, internal medicine pays particular attention to the clinical problems it faces and gives the possibility to grasp them in their different dimensions. Based on a work of reconstruction of the history of internal medicine and its theoretical referents from the analysis of its speeches, a conceptual analysis of the categories of autonomy, health and decision, and observations made in internal medicine department, this Ph. D focuses on a certain number of complex situations, that involve polypathological condition or comorbidities. They crystallise the difficulties linked to autonomy as a moral value and to the application, in the context of care and decision-making, of the "principle of autonomy". They also question the "functional autonomy" erected as a standard of care, and apprehended as the opposite of dependency. It appears that different senses of autonomy intertwine in the care given to the situations of polypathology and comorbidities and in the decisions that concern them : the concern for functional autonomy, the consideration for social autonomy and for an inclusion in a network of support and formal and informal care, as well as issues of self-determination and crucial life choices. Besides, these different senses of autonomy intertwine with health considerations. This situations lead us to consider different forms of health and autonomy, which take into account the various forms of dependency that allow a sick person to preserve what will be designated in this work as a certain “latitude of life”. The latter includes a certain “latitude” in the decisions made about them. At stake in this work is the attempt to adopt a positive concept of health – distinct from its conception as the absence of disease ; a concept that also allows to consider autonomy in various ways. This « health » must be something we can take care of, even in situations of long-term pathological condition. On the basis of the conceptions of health states and pathological states of Kurt Goldstein and Georges Canguilhem we examine in this Ph. D., we finally develop the idea of a form of health that is understood as a "certain latitude of life", a life latitude likely to remain despite the restrictions, deficits, dependencies induced by the disease and to be aroused, maintained and restored through care and support relationships

Between the thirteenth and seventeenth centuries commerce in northern Europe expanded and contracted. The long term net effect of the trade increase was an overall substantial impact on the economy and on the culture of the lands around the North and Baltic Seas. The development of interdependent markets can be indicated by examining the tendency of prices to converge in different places. Relying on previous research and novel ways of constructing indices using price data from a number of ports in northern Europe it is possible to confirm both the long term direction, with ups and downs, toward market integration as well as the emergence in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries of regional markets in certain food grains.

Focussing on the double meaning of the concept of »movement« as both physical and emotional movement within the interdisciplinary frame of literary and dance studies, this paper examines the complex connections between the representation of emotional and dance movements in Jane Austen’s novel ‚Pride and Prejudice‘ (1813) by tracing an aesthetics of restraint, reticence and control (in compliance with the code of conduct promoted by contemporary dance treatises) in Austen’s writing: in the depiction of emotions in her text, in (the delineation of) her characters’ physical and emotional behaviour, and in the almost complete absence of references to dance per se and to dancemovements in her dance scenes. Dance scenarios are mainly used to provide implicit kinetic and cultural information for the representation of her characters’ sentiments.

The elder and more experienced certainly know or at least have a vague idea that there used to be a Greek brandy named Botrys containing 40 % of alcohol. Its name was probably derived from the name of Botrytis cinerea (botrytis bunch rot, more commonly). The Greek term is Βότρυς and its transcription into Latin alphabet is Votrus or Votris. However, if a scholar attempts to verify in such an elementary finding, they can get entangled in very complex and tricky historical facts. After weeks of hard work it turned out that it is probably easier to write a chapter on the history of Greek economy of the second half of 19th century than a few lines on a distillery producing a brandy called Botrys. And so this contribution somehow by the way describes a solution to the „raisin problem“ in order to conclude with some basic information on the label Botrys.

This chapter talks about Hellenistic prices in Babylon, with which a large data set has survived. The price data come from a vast archive of astronomical cuneiform tablets from the ancient city of Babylon. These tablets are unique among documents pertinent to the study of ancient history. Because of the astronomical content, any evidence extracted from these texts can be dated with certainty. Furthermore, the market quotations always were expressed in the same terms: quantities that can be purchased for one shekel (a weight measure, not a coin) of silver. In addition, values of the same six commodities were listed in a set order: barley, dates, cuscuta (mustard), cardamom (cress), sesame, and wool.

In this study, the retrofit project describes the conversion of the air-conditioning system at No.4 College Building in Donghua University in Shanghai China, to a building cooling heating and power (BCHP) system. This includes the optimal retrofit design models of the BCHP system, of which the exergetic efficiency and annual costs (AC) of the system are the separate objective functions. The retrofit scheme is planned to insert gas engines as prime movers into the original system, which have adopted gas-fired absorption chillers. The solutions of the optimization problems show that such retrofit can result in a remarkable rise in exergetic efficiency but is not currently viable with current fuel prices. The contradictory solutions reveal a gap between the current energy prices system of the country and the present energy situation. It is really an urgent task to reform the energy prices system in China. Further investigation gives the critical lines of which each divides the coordinate plane of natural gas-electric prices into 2 parts, viz., of benefit and deficit. It is found if the electric price rises to a certain extent, say a rise of USD0.0238, the retrofit will reach both a positive benefit and a remarkable increase in exergetic efficiency. Discussion and conclusions have been given and may be helpful for other similar retrofit projects that aim to both energy saving and benefits.

Article aims to show an application of regression analysis for qualitative evaluation of companies’ brand competitiveness from a customer point of view. Presented methodology could be applied if only a certain level of competition is observed in the market. We assume that (i) brand competitiveness is embodied into commodities’, that companies are selling, prices and (ii) companies that have more competitive brand are able to sell their commodity at a higher price after controlling for other explicit factors potentially affecting price. For this purpose, we adapt classical linear regression model and provide an example with car companies’ brands in the Italian market.

The United States announced plans to impose tariffs and quotas on her imports of certain commodities, notably iron, steel and aluminum, and on imports from certain countries, including those from China, in early 2018. These and counter announcements has been considered as the start of global trade wars. Even before that, there has been a significant slowdown in the growth of world trade in recent years. In the three decades before 2011, annual world trade recorded a growth of about 6%. This was twice as high as world GDP growth, implying an income (GDP) elasticity of trade at around 2. Between 2011 – 2016, the income elasticity of trade has fallen to below 1, on average. While the recent poor performance of global trade has been attributed to these structural and cyclical factors, this paper argues that the rise in both price uncertainty, demand uncertainty and policy uncertainty have and will have a significant effect on trade growth. Price uncertainty is reflected in fluctuations in real exchange rates, commodity prices and manufacturing prices. Demand uncertainty, on the other hand, is reflected by growth variability in time and among countries. Policy uncertainty can be traced in protectionist measures.

Abstract In order for capital-intensive deepwater prospects to remain at investment grade potential, it is important the industry achieve meaningful improvement in capital efficiency. Achieving this goal will require a multi-faceted strategy in which advanced new technology and digital transformation will play a determining role. This paper will address the optimization of rig operations through deployment of an advanced Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) system that leverages precision robotics and automation technologies; reducing total cost of ownership (TCO) through increased rig productivity, operational certainty and overall utilization. Current ROV technology faces several key limitations which contribute to both schedule and cost variation. These inefficiencies are a combination of human skill variance, ROV system limitations and reliability. Advanced ROV systems have been deployed on two deepwater rigs to demonstrate that machine vision and precision robotics technologies will radically improve the predictability and efficiency of operations. Comprehensive metrics addressing safety, budget impact, cost avoidance & reduction, inventory reduction & non price TCO have been developed to capture the efficiencies and identify the net improvement to drilling and completion operations and yield outcome-based performance. An overview of the key deficiencies and limitations of legacy ROV operations will be conveyed, focusing on; i) High dependency on ROV pilot subsea task skills, ii) Worksite efficiency and ROV availability, iii) Restricted tooling capabilities per dive, iv) Rental tooling logistics and cost, v) Equipment reliability at depth, vi) Inefficient tooling changes, and vii) Dive duration and lost time efficiency launch/recovery time. An overview of how the advanced ROV system resolves these issues will be explained. In addition, an explanation of the productivity metrics will be conveyed, supported with data from the active offshore projects. Key conclusions from the data identify that enhanced robotics will achieve the objectives of i) Reducing schedule and cost risks which improve total cost of ownership, ii) Enhancing capability and improved wellsite efficiency, and iii) Increasing subsea data. The performance issues of legacy ROV operations and associated project cost impact is currently not widely recognized by the offshore drilling community. The realized limitations of such ROV operations and lack of useful performance metrics to identify non-productive time will be explained. The progression in robotic design that drives a new era of subsea robotic efficiency will be conveyed with results from offshore operations, combined with robust metrics that enable significant operational value and cost savings to be attained.

This work focuses on aerodynamic airfoils and their application. The significant aim of this work is to introduce and analyse different types of airfoils and their importance. The first part of the paper examines aerodynamic characteristics, airfoil geometry and brings the historical evolution of certain types of airfoils. The second part of the paper considers different databases, and closely examines the NACA database and its numerical labelling by looking at digit series label, which follows the acronym NACA, indicating the airfoil's shape. The main body of the paperillustrates the real-life application of chosen airfoils by examining horizontal and vertical stabilisers and wind turbines. The last part of the paperpresents the analysis of the application of chosen wing root and wingtip airfoils.

An equilibrium economic model for policy evaluation related to electricity generation has been developed; the model takes into account the non-renewable and renewable energy sources, demand and supply factors and environmental constraints. The non-renewable energy sources include three types of fossil fuels: coal, natural gas and petroleum, and renewable energy sources include nuclear, hydraulic, wind, solar photovoltaic, biomass wood, biomass waste and geothermal. Energy demand sectors include households, industrial manufacturing and commercial enterprises (non-manufacturing businesses such as software firms, banks, restaurants, service organizations, universities, etc.). Energy supply takes into account the electricity delivered to the consumer by the utility companies at a certain price which maybe different for retail and wholesale customers. Environmental risks primarily take into account the CO2 generation from fossil fuels. The model takes into account the employment in various sectors and labor supply and demand. Detailed electricity supply and demand data, electricity cost data, employment data in various sectors and CO2 generation data are collected for a period of seventeen years from 1990 to 2006 in U.S. The model is calibrated for the aggregate data. The calibrated model is then employed for policy analysis experiments if a switch is made in sources of electricity generation, namely from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. As an example, we consider a switch of 10% of electricity generation from coal to 5% from wind, 3% from solar photovoltaic, 1% from biomass wood and 1% from biomass waste. It should be noted that the cost of electricity generation from different sources is different and is taken into account. The consequences of this switch on supply and demand, employment, wages, and emissions are obtained from the economic model under three scenarios: (1) energy prices are fully regulated, (2) energy prices are fully adjusted with electricity supply fixed, and (3) energy prices and electricity supply both are fully adjusted.

This paper deals with the trend of implementation artificial intelligence systems at airports, its meaning and impact on the operational performance and functioning of the airports themselves. After summarizing the theoretical knowledge and examining the current state of the problem, there is created a raster of selected crucial operational processes of airports in which artificial intelligence has been implemented so far. The processing of this raster is based primarily on findings of the implementation of AI systems at five selected hub airports. In the paper, there is also examined a status and prospects of the implementation of artificial intelligence in the form of a questionnaire, especially at airports with a smaller number of handled passengers. This paper also discusses the operational and security implications of this implementation, such as faster check-in, easier baggage handling, easier traveling with biometric technologies, improved security controls at airports, improved operational performance with airport robots and more effective elimination of spreading the diseases at airports. The subject of possible economic and sociological consequences is also approached, due to the possible change in the nature of job from the point of view of airport employees and the creation of a certain kind of cooperation between them and artificial intelligence. The conclusions of this paper also include a proposal for a stronger representation of this area in the study program "air transport" with subsequent possible innovation or creation of new school subjects, in order to gain a deeper knowledge to new graduates in this field.

We investigate the efficiency of fair allocations of indivisible goods using the well-studied price of fairness concept. Previous work has focused on classical fairness notions such as envy-freeness, proportionality, and equitability. However, these notions cannot always be satisfied for indivisible goods, leading to certain instances being ignored in the analysis. In this paper, we focus instead on notions with guaranteed existence, including envy-freeness up to one good (EF1), balancedness, maximum Nash welfare (MNW), and leximin. We mostly provide tight or asymptotically tight bounds on the worst-case efficiency loss for allocations satisfying these notions.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic Summary Overall inflation (1.61%) and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) (1.11%) both declined beyond the technical staff’s expectations in the fourth quarter of 2020. Year-end 2021 forecasts for both indicators were revised downward to 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Market inflation expectations also fell over this period and suggested inflation below the 3% target through the end of this year, rising to the target in 2022. Downward pressure on inflation was more significant in the fourth quarter than previously projected, indicating weak demand. Annual deceleration among the main groups of the consumer price index (CPI) was generalized and, except for foods, was greater than projected in the October report. The CPI for goods (excluding foods and regulated items) and the CPI for regulated items were subject to the largest decelerations and forecasting discrepancies. In the first case, this was due in part to a greater-than-expected effect on prices from the government’s “VAT-fee day” amid weak demand, and from the extension of some price relief measures. For regulated items, the deceleration was caused in part by unanticipated declines in some utility prices. Annual change in the CPI for services continued to decline as a result of the performance of those services that were not subject to price relief measures, in particular. Although some of the overall decline in inflation is expected to be temporary and reverse course in the second quarter of 2021, various sources of downward pressure on inflation have become more acute and will likely remain into next year. These include ample excesses in capacity, as suggested by the continued and greater-than-expected deceleration in core inflation indicators and in the CPI for services excluding price relief measures. This dynamic is also suggested by the minimal transmission of accumulated depreciation of the peso on domestic prices. Although excess capacity should fall in 2021, the decline will likely be slower than projected in the October report amid additional restrictions on mobility due to a recent acceleration of growth in COVID-19 cases. An additional factor is that low inflation registered at the end of 2020 will likely be reflected in low price adjustments on certain indexed services with significant weight in the CPI, including real estate rentals and some utilities. These factors should keep inflation below the target and lower than estimates from the previous report on the forecast horizon. Inflation is expected to continue to decline to levels near 1% in March, later increasing to 2.3% at the end of 2021 and 2.7% at year-end 2022 (Graph 1.1). According to the Bank’s most recent survey, market analysts expect inflation of 2.7% and 3.1% in December 2021 and 2022, respectively. Expected inflation derived from government bonds was 2% for year-end 2021, while expected inflation based on bonds one year forward from that date (FBEI 1-1 2022) was 3.2%.