Academic literature on the topic 'CGE Model'

Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.<p><p>The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.<p><p>This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:<p><p>1.\<br>Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Volatility within the UK housing market is thought to be a significant factor driving instability in the wider macro economy. Research investigating the characteristics and behaviour of the housing market has suggested that under supply of housing is one of the key reasons for the high and increasing levels of house prices the nation has recently been experiencing. Consequently, much of the current government's housing policy is aimed at increasing the level of supply by reforming the planning system and increasing investment in the development of new housing. Under supply is also a major concern at the regional level, particularly in the South West, where net inward migration, growth in the number of single person households and growth in the numbers of second homes is placing increasing pressure on the housing market. Understanding the likely effects of any policy changes prior to their implementation is vitally important for a successful outcome and to that end economic analysis has played a significant role in the development of policy at the national level. However, this is not the case at the regional and sub-regional levels where only limited use of economic analysis techniques have been made, partly due to resource issues and partly due to the lack of regional data. In order to partially address the lack of analysis of the regional impacts of the latest housing policies, this study is based upon the development of a mathematical economic model of the South West housing market. This model is then used to estimate the likely impacts of increasing housing supply at both the regional and broad sub-regional levels.

Water-related issues are gaining importance at both national and global level. Water resources are becoming insufficient in meeting the rising needs. As resources are distributed unevenly throughout the world, supply and demand correspondence is difficult to meet. The analysis of water related issues should be addressed within a comprehensive framework. CGE models offer this possibility. This study aims to construct a CGE model for Turkey which includes water as a factor of production. It relates water issues with another troublesome debate that is important for Turkey: trade liberalization in agriculture. Turkey as a member of WTO and a candidate country for the EU has to consider the effects of a further liberalization in agriculture on its economy. In this study a trade liberalization scenario and a water-policy scenario have been discussed. Additional simulations are conducted in the case of a productivity increase in agriculture. Results show that, trade liberalization in agriculture leads to an increase in GDP and income levels, but had a negative impact on the trade balance in agricultural products. Applying a &ldquo<br>selective water tax&rdquo<br>will result in a decrease in production and consumption in water-intensive sectors, as well as in the private income. For the first simulation, productivity increase in agriculture leads to a further increase in both GDP level and incomes, and it compensates the trade distortions resulting from the tariff reduction. In water simulation, private income increases with productivity increase and depletion in production and consumption of agricultural products reversed. Moreover, the net exports in agriculture improve significantly.

Kyoto University (京都大学)<br>0048<br>新制・課程博士<br>博士(農学)<br>甲第9626号<br>農博第1254号<br>新制||農||843(附属図書館)<br>学位論文||H14||N3658(農学部図書室)<br>UT51-2002-G384<br>京都大学大学院農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻<br>(主査)教授 吉田 昌之, 教授 辻井 博, 教授 加賀 爪優<br>学位規則第4条第1項該当

Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.

Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.

Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.<br>Thesis (PhD Doctorate)<br>Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)<br>Griffith Business School<br>Griffith Business School<br>Full Text

This thesis investigates environmental and energy policies that Turkey needs to adopt on its way to a sustainable development path. A comparative-static, multi-sectoral CGE model, TurkMod, is developed in order to analyze the potential scenarios available for the Turkish economy to attain a low-carbon society with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. Domestic energy demand has significantly increased in Turkey over the past decades and this has put a lot of pressure on policy-makers as the economy greatly depends on imports of natural gas and oil as far as current energy consumption is concerned. The CGE model in this study is based on a 2012 energy-disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) constructed as a part of this thesis as well. The energy-disaggregated SAM incorporates 18 sectors for production activities, 11 products as commodities, 2 factors of production as labor and capital, 3 institutional accounts as firms, households, and the government, a separate account for taxes on commodities, taxes on production and taxes on different types of factor use, a capital account, and finally the rest of the world (ROW) account. Disaggregating the electricity sector to include 8 different types of power generating sectors (5 of which are renewable energy sources) enables electric power substitution in the model. The energy-disaggregated SAM is further linked with satellite accounts which include data on derived energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.The macroeconomic and environmental impacts of four distinct sets of scenarios are analyzed with respect to the baseline scenario. The first scenario simulates a 30% increase in energy efficiency in the production sectors and the residential sector and evidence is found for reaching the 21% GHG mitigation target set in Turkey’s pledge for Paris Agreement compliance. The second set of scenarios is the inclusion of a medium-level and high-level carbon tax rates for coal, oil and natural gas. The carbon tax scenarios produce significant effects on both emission reduction targets and substituting fossil fuel technologies with cleaner energy types. The third scenario investigates the sectoral and welfare impacts of providing subsidies for renewable energy sources. Turkey has already adopted a scheme where renewable energies are beings subsidized and promoted, however, this policy does not produce the necessary transformation for the Turkish society when utilized solely on its own. The fourth scenario estimates the effects of changes in world prices of energy on the Turkish economy. A 20% increase in world energy prices, i.e. oil, natural gas, and coal, induces substantial changes in the breakdown of TPES and the power-generating sector, but this scenario is a rather hypothetical one as it cannot be suggested as a viable policy option. All in all, these potential energy scenarios have significant and influential impacts on the Turkish economy and its environment. Notwithstanding, a carbon tax policy proves to be the most viable scenario which leads to reduced energy intensities in all sectors, a 21% GHG emissions abatement, and a transformation of the energy sector towards having a low-carbon content along with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports.<br>Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished