Dissertations / Theses: 'CGE Model'

1

Hubic, Amela. "A financial CGE model for Luxembourg." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209083.

Full text

Abstract:

Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.

The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.

This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:

1.\
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

2

Keast, Sarah-Jane. "A bi-regional CGE model of the South West housing market." Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/2127.

Full text

Abstract:

Volatility within the UK housing market is thought to be a significant factor driving instability in the wider macro economy. Research investigating the characteristics and behaviour of the housing market has suggested that under supply of housing is one of the key reasons for the high and increasing levels of house prices the nation has recently been experiencing. Consequently, much of the current government's housing policy is aimed at increasing the level of supply by reforming the planning system and increasing investment in the development of new housing. Under supply is also a major concern at the regional level, particularly in the South West, where net inward migration, growth in the number of single person households and growth in the numbers of second homes is placing increasing pressure on the housing market. Understanding the likely effects of any policy changes prior to their implementation is vitally important for a successful outcome and to that end economic analysis has played a significant role in the development of policy at the national level. However, this is not the case at the regional and sub-regional levels where only limited use of economic analysis techniques have been made, partly due to resource issues and partly due to the lack of regional data. In order to partially address the lack of analysis of the regional impacts of the latest housing policies, this study is based upon the development of a mathematical economic model of the South West housing market. This model is then used to estimate the likely impacts of increasing housing supply at both the regional and broad sub-regional levels.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

3

Sumaraharja, Salip Hasta. "EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS IN INDNESIA : A CGE MODEL ANALYSIS." Kyoto University, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/181763.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

4

Cirpici, Yasemin Asu. "Economy-wide Analysis Of Water Resource Management: A Cge Model For Turkey." Phd thesis, METU, 2008. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12609404/index.pdf.

Full text

Abstract:

Water-related issues are gaining importance at both national and global level. Water resources are becoming insufficient in meeting the rising needs. As resources are distributed unevenly throughout the world, supply and demand correspondence is difficult to meet. The analysis of water related issues should be addressed within a comprehensive framework. CGE models offer this possibility. This study aims to construct a CGE model for Turkey which includes water as a factor of production. It relates water issues with another troublesome debate that is important for Turkey: trade liberalization in agriculture. Turkey as a member of WTO and a candidate country for the EU has to consider the effects of a further liberalization in agriculture on its economy. In this study a trade liberalization scenario and a water-policy scenario have been discussed. Additional simulations are conducted in the case of a productivity increase in agriculture. Results show that, trade liberalization in agriculture leads to an increase in GDP and income levels, but had a negative impact on the trade balance in agricultural products. Applying a &ldquo
selective water tax&rdquo
will result in a decrease in production and consumption in water-intensive sectors, as well as in the private income. For the first simulation, productivity increase in agriculture leads to a further increase in both GDP level and incomes, and it compensates the trade distortions resulting from the tariff reduction. In water simulation, private income increases with productivity increase and depletion in production and consumption of agricultural products reversed. Moreover, the net exports in agriculture improve significantly.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

5

Mohora, Maria Christina. "RoMod: a dynamic CGE model for Romania a tool for policy analysis /." Rotterdam : Rotterdam : Erasmus Universiteit ; Erasmus University [Host], 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/7455.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

6

Jakfar, Fajri. "Impacts of timber trade policies on industrial activities in Indonesia using a CGE model." Kyoto University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/149912.

Full text

Abstract:

Kyoto University (京都大学)
0048
新制・課程博士
博士(農学)
甲第9626号
農博第1254号
新制||農||843(附属図書館)
学位論文||H14||N3658(農学部図書室)
UT51-2002-G384
京都大学大学院農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻
(主査)教授吉田昌之, 教授辻井博, 教授加賀爪優
学位規則第4条第1項該当

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

7

Yalew, Amsalu W., Georg Hirte, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Stefan Tscharaktschiew. "Economic Effects of Climate Change in Developing Countries: Economy-wide and Regional Analysis for Ethiopia." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227554.

Full text

Abstract:

Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

8

Naranpanawa, Athula Kithsiri Bandara, and n/a. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model: The Sri Lankan Case." Griffith University. Griffith Business School, 2005. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20070130.165943.

Full text

Abstract:

Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

9

Naranpanawa, Athula. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model: The Sri Lankan Case." Thesis, Griffith University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366815.

Full text

Abstract:

Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
Full Text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

10

Ertac, Dizem. "Investigating the effects of environmental and energy policies in Turkey using an energy-disaggregated CGE model." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/315740.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis investigates environmental and energy policies that Turkey needs to adopt on its way to a sustainable development path. A comparative-static, multi-sectoral CGE model, TurkMod, is developed in order to analyze the potential scenarios available for the Turkish economy to attain a low-carbon society with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. Domestic energy demand has significantly increased in Turkey over the past decades and this has put a lot of pressure on policy-makers as the economy greatly depends on imports of natural gas and oil as far as current energy consumption is concerned. The CGE model in this study is based on a 2012 energy-disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) constructed as a part of this thesis as well. The energy-disaggregated SAM incorporates 18 sectors for production activities, 11 products as commodities, 2 factors of production as labor and capital, 3 institutional accounts as firms, households, and the government, a separate account for taxes on commodities, taxes on production and taxes on different types of factor use, a capital account, and finally the rest of the world (ROW) account. Disaggregating the electricity sector to include 8 different types of power generating sectors (5 of which are renewable energy sources) enables electric power substitution in the model. The energy-disaggregated SAM is further linked with satellite accounts which include data on derived energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.The macroeconomic and environmental impacts of four distinct sets of scenarios are analyzed with respect to the baseline scenario. The first scenario simulates a 30% increase in energy efficiency in the production sectors and the residential sector and evidence is found for reaching the 21% GHG mitigation target set in Turkey’s pledge for Paris Agreement compliance. The second set of scenarios is the inclusion of a medium-level and high-level carbon tax rates for coal, oil and natural gas. The carbon tax scenarios produce significant effects on both emission reduction targets and substituting fossil fuel technologies with cleaner energy types. The third scenario investigates the sectoral and welfare impacts of providing subsidies for renewable energy sources. Turkey has already adopted a scheme where renewable energies are beings subsidized and promoted, however, this policy does not produce the necessary transformation for the Turkish society when utilized solely on its own. The fourth scenario estimates the effects of changes in world prices of energy on the Turkish economy. A 20% increase in world energy prices, i.e. oil, natural gas, and coal, induces substantial changes in the breakdown of TPES and the power-generating sector, but this scenario is a rather hypothetical one as it cannot be suggested as a viable policy option. All in all, these potential energy scenarios have significant and influential impacts on the Turkish economy and its environment. Notwithstanding, a carbon tax policy proves to be the most viable scenario which leads to reduced energy intensities in all sectors, a 21% GHG emissions abatement, and a transformation of the energy sector towards having a low-carbon content along with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

11

Yalew, Amsalu, Georg Hirte, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Stefan Tscharaktschiew. "General Equilibrium Effects of Public Adaptation in Agriculture in LDCs: Evidence from Ethiopia." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227316.

Full text

Abstract:

Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. This is because its important economic sector, agriculture, is virtually rain-fed. The role of the sector in the current economic structure and the potency of the anticipated biophysical impacts of climate change necessitates proactive adaptation in agriculture. This, however, breeds questions of adaptation costs and adaptation finance. This study attempts to derive plausible range of planned adaptation costs in agriculture along with their economy-wide and regional effects in Ethiopia. It also assess the economy-wide and regional effects of the likely options available to a government of a least-developed country to finance adaptation in agriculture. The results show that planned public adaptation in agriculture puts pressure on government surplus, impedes on manufacturing and private services, and GDP of urbanized regions. As such, it may strain the current macroeconomic endeavors of the country which puts government driven structural transformation and reducing fiscal deficit relative to GDP at the center. Government of Ethiopia may reconcile this by laying out incentives to urban agriculture and private investment in agriculture. Besides, foreign support in the form of biotechnology transfer and debt-relief may help to control the side effects of grants on foreign exchange market and trade balance.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

12

王, 飛., Fei Wang, 頌宏郭, Songhong Guo, 光男江崎 та Mitsuo Ezaki. "中国の労働移動と地域開発 : 地域リンクCGEモデルによる分析". Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/7493.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

13

Koronczi, Karol, and Mitsuo Ezaki. "A World Link CGE Model Applied to the Economic Reform in the Slovak Republic and EU Enlargement." Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/7496.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

14

Nitzsche, Eric. "Analyse von verkehrs- und klimabezogenen Politikmaßnahmen in einer Stadtökonomie." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2016. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-202866.

Full text

Abstract:

Die Dissertation befasst sich mit der Erweiterung und Anwendung des allgemeinen räumlichen Gleichgewicht- und Transportmodells RELU-TRAN (Anas und Liu, 2007) und analysiert verschiedene verkehrs- und klimabezogene Politikmaßnahmen (Tempo-30 in Städten, Infrastrukturqualität, Anpassung an den Klimawandel) in einer Stadtökonomie.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

15

SPINELLI, ADRIANO. "Modeling Water Reallocation Policies in a CGE Framework: The Impact of Drought on the Kenyan Economy." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/781.

Full text

Abstract:

Il cambiamento climatico e la pressione antropica sulle risorse idriche rendono le politiche di gestione dell’acqua primordiali nell'agenda dei policy makers. Nel mio lavoro, inizialmente, presento una rassegna della letteratura in materia di modelli di Equilibro Generale Calcolabile (CGE) che incorporano l’acqua. In tale ambito, propongo la seguente classificazione: (i) la concorrenza tra i settori per l’uso di acqua; (ii) le politiche di prezzo e delle tariffe sull’acqua, (iii) l'acqua e le questioni commerciali, (iv) i modelli CGE ed altri modelli. In secondo luogo, analizzo gli effetti della siccità per l'economia del Kenya attraverso un modello CGE statico, calibrato sulla Matrice di Contabilità Sociale (SAM) del Kenya (2003). Il Kenya è stato scelto perché Paese particolarmente esposto a ricorrenti siccità (ad esempio negli anni 1994, 1998-2000, 2001 e 2003) che hanno duramente colpito le popolazioni più vulnerabili del paese, cioè quelle concentrate nelle zone aride e semiaride (ASAL). Inoltre, propongo l'introduzione di schemi di tassazione, al fine di produrre un extra-reddito che possa essere reinvestito per aumentare l'efficienza del settore idrico in Kenya o per trasferimenti alle famiglie rurali più povere. Infine, riproduco l'attuazione del progetto “Arid Land and Resource Management Project” (ALRMP) di FAO e Banca Mondiale. I risultati mostrano che, in primo luogo, gli effetti di una riduzione della dotazione di acqua sono più robusti di quelli derivanti da un aumento della dotazione d'acqua. In secondo luogo, la simulazione di uno scenario di siccità - in cui non solo la dotazione di acqua, ma anche la disponibilità di terra e la produttività di attività selezionate sono ridotti - fornisce un quadro più coerente dei risultati. In terzo luogo, tassare “raw water” (il fattore di acqua) può influenzare negativamente i redditi degli abitanti delle zone rurali. Infine, Il ALRMP ha un impatto positivo sulla riduzione degli effetti negativi della siccità sulle ASAL in Kenya.
Climate change and human pressure on water resources make water management policies primordial in the agenda of policy makers. I first propose a literature review of the works on Water Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models suggesting the following classification: (i) competition between sectors; (ii) water pricing policies and tariffs; (iii) water and trade issues; (iv) CGE and other models. Secondly, the effects of droughts on the Kenyan economy are studied by means of a static CGE model, calibrated on the 2003 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya. As a water scarce Sub-Saharan country, Kenya is among those countries considered particularly exposed to drought problems. This has been witnessed in recent years by several recurring droughts (1994, 1998-2000, 2001, and 2003) which have harshly hit the most vulnerable part of the country, namely the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL). Besides, I propose the introduction of several taxation schemes in order to produce an extra revenue to be either reinvested in increasing the efficiency of the water sector in Kenya, or redistributed to the poorest rural households. Finally we simulate the implementation of the UN-FAO and World Bank “Arid Land and Resource Management Project” (ALRMP). The results show that, firstly, the effects of reducing water endowment are stronger than when increasing water endowment. Secondly, simulating a drought scenario – where not just water endowment but also availability of land and the productivity of selected activities are reduced - gives a more coherent picture of the outcomes. Thirdly, taxing raw water (the water factor) may negatively affect rural dwellers as they are owners of water resources. Finally, I found that the ALRMP has a positive impact on mitigating the negative effects of droughts in Kenyan ASAL.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

16

SPINELLI, ADRIANO. "Modeling Water Reallocation Policies in a CGE Framework: The Impact of Drought on the Kenyan Economy." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/781.

Full text

Abstract:

Il cambiamento climatico e la pressione antropica sulle risorse idriche rendono le politiche di gestione dell’acqua primordiali nell'agenda dei policy makers. Nel mio lavoro, inizialmente, presento una rassegna della letteratura in materia di modelli di Equilibro Generale Calcolabile (CGE) che incorporano l’acqua. In tale ambito, propongo la seguente classificazione: (i) la concorrenza tra i settori per l’uso di acqua; (ii) le politiche di prezzo e delle tariffe sull’acqua, (iii) l'acqua e le questioni commerciali, (iv) i modelli CGE ed altri modelli. In secondo luogo, analizzo gli effetti della siccità per l'economia del Kenya attraverso un modello CGE statico, calibrato sulla Matrice di Contabilità Sociale (SAM) del Kenya (2003). Il Kenya è stato scelto perché Paese particolarmente esposto a ricorrenti siccità (ad esempio negli anni 1994, 1998-2000, 2001 e 2003) che hanno duramente colpito le popolazioni più vulnerabili del paese, cioè quelle concentrate nelle zone aride e semiaride (ASAL). Inoltre, propongo l'introduzione di schemi di tassazione, al fine di produrre un extra-reddito che possa essere reinvestito per aumentare l'efficienza del settore idrico in Kenya o per trasferimenti alle famiglie rurali più povere. Infine, riproduco l'attuazione del progetto “Arid Land and Resource Management Project” (ALRMP) di FAO e Banca Mondiale. I risultati mostrano che, in primo luogo, gli effetti di una riduzione della dotazione di acqua sono più robusti di quelli derivanti da un aumento della dotazione d'acqua. In secondo luogo, la simulazione di uno scenario di siccità - in cui non solo la dotazione di acqua, ma anche la disponibilità di terra e la produttività di attività selezionate sono ridotti - fornisce un quadro più coerente dei risultati. In terzo luogo, tassare “raw water” (il fattore di acqua) può influenzare negativamente i redditi degli abitanti delle zone rurali. Infine, Il ALRMP ha un impatto positivo sulla riduzione degli effetti negativi della siccità sulle ASAL in Kenya.
Climate change and human pressure on water resources make water management policies primordial in the agenda of policy makers. I first propose a literature review of the works on Water Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models suggesting the following classification: (i) competition between sectors; (ii) water pricing policies and tariffs; (iii) water and trade issues; (iv) CGE and other models. Secondly, the effects of droughts on the Kenyan economy are studied by means of a static CGE model, calibrated on the 2003 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya. As a water scarce Sub-Saharan country, Kenya is among those countries considered particularly exposed to drought problems. This has been witnessed in recent years by several recurring droughts (1994, 1998-2000, 2001, and 2003) which have harshly hit the most vulnerable part of the country, namely the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL). Besides, I propose the introduction of several taxation schemes in order to produce an extra revenue to be either reinvested in increasing the efficiency of the water sector in Kenya, or redistributed to the poorest rural households. Finally we simulate the implementation of the UN-FAO and World Bank “Arid Land and Resource Management Project” (ALRMP). The results show that, firstly, the effects of reducing water endowment are stronger than when increasing water endowment. Secondly, simulating a drought scenario – where not just water endowment but also availability of land and the productivity of selected activities are reduced - gives a more coherent picture of the outcomes. Thirdly, taxing raw water (the water factor) may negatively affect rural dwellers as they are owners of water resources. Finally, I found that the ALRMP has a positive impact on mitigating the negative effects of droughts in Kenyan ASAL.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

17

Nikpoor, Somaieh. "Three Essays on Modeling Aging Population." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/36433.

Full text

Abstract:

Chapter 1: Interregional Transfers through Public Pension in Canada- In this chapter, I build a regional computable general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations (OLG) structure of the Canadian economy to analyze population aging dynamics and public pensions. Canada is divided into three regions: Atlantic, Quebec and Rest of Canada (ROC). The impact of population aging is investigated on each of three regions' pension systems. The results confirm that as a result of aging all regions are affected negatively if they choose to have an independent pension system. Under a joint pension system most of the pressure of the provision of the pension system is on the ROC. Atlantic region benefits the most from a joint pension plan as the implicit funds ow from ROC to Atlantic region. Quebec benefits from having its own program, but the benefits disappear slowly in future years. Chapter 2: Age-Variable Rate of Time Preference in CGE-OLG Model- Contrary to the mainstream studies in the area of intertemporal optimization that assume a constant rate of time preference over individuals' life cycles, in this chapter I propose a new approach to measure the rate of time preference by assuming that the rate of time preference evolves by age. I construct an overlapping generations model (OLG) and calibrate rate of time preference. The age-variable rate of time preference would permit to capture many other elements that affect the life cycle profile of consumption as observed in the data. The results show that rate of time preference exhibits three phases and is different for young versus old. Chapter 3: Computing Demographic Change Simulation under Constant and Age-variable Rate of Time Preference - This chapter simulates the impact of an aging population on various macroeconomic variables and calculates the cohort welfare as well as social welfare. The outcomes from simulations are dependent on the choice of rate of time preference as well as the structure of the model. The results in this chapter provide a new approach to determining the impact of aging population. The choice of a realistic rate of time preference, which allows its variability by age, affects the cohort welfare noticeably.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

18

Gomo, Charity [Verfasser]. "Government social assistance transfers, income inequality and poverty in South Africa: a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) - Microsimulation (MS) Model / Charity Gomo." Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1077768036/34.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

19

WASSIE, TAREKEGNE WUBIE. "ECONOMY-WIDE ESTIMATES OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF INDC POLICIES FOR ETHIOPIA (A RECURSIVE DYNAMIC CGE MICRO-DATA ANALYSIS)." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2434/607003.

Full text

Abstract:

Economic and Environmental Effects of INDC Policies for Ethiopia (A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis) Mitigation of climate change has become unavoidable discussion item in policy making agendas in both developed and developing counties. Having understood the important role played by developing nations in fighting against climate change, Ethiopia submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the UNFCCC secretariat with an emission reduction goal of 64% in 2030 compared to the BAU scenario. The main objective of this study is to analyse the economic and environmental effects of the implementation of Ethiopia’s INDC policy in the form of carbon tax. In doing so, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed and is calibrated on the updated 2009/10 SAM of Ethiopia with the corresponding emission data of the same year. Four simulation scenarios have been introduced. In the first simulation, carbon tax revenue has been allocated entirely for government consumption, whereas in the second simulation, the carbon tax revenue has been equally divided between government consumption and households in form of lump sum transfer. In the third and fourth simulations, productivity gains from government expenditure allocated to health and education sectors are combined with the respective first two simulations. The results of simulation experiments on selected macroeconomic variables indicate that, in real terms, GDP, national absorption and household consumption are found to be adversely affected relative to the baseline scenario, the impact being considerably high in the first simulation. The simulations with productivity gains, in relative sense, have improved the negative effects of the carbon tax abatement policy on the economic variables. The implication of this is that policies that increase productivity of government expenditure have better spillover effects on GDP than those of household consumption. Finally, to achieve the emission reduction target set out in the INDC policy of Ethiopia with reasonable cost to the economy, the country has to invest in clean technologies that are meant to improve emission efficiency as most of the emissions emanate from activities in the agricultural sector, and for this end, huge international support is required.
The Poverty, Distributional and Welfare Implications of INDC Policies for Ethiopia Environmental policies relying on market-based instruments, primarily carbon taxes, are becoming more advocated to mitigate the ever increasing GHG emissions, due to their efficiency properties. However the equity implications of such policies, the impacts on poverty, on wealth distribution, and on the prospects for growth are equally important. This is particularly true for developing countries whose primary aim is to improve upon weak economic and social performances. Ethiopia submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the UNFCCC secretariat with an emission reduction goal of 64% in 2030 compared to the BAU scenario. At the same time, the country is committed to reducing poverty and attaining its middle income status by 2025. As such, this study aims at analyzing the poverty, distributional and welfare consequences the implementation of Ethiopia’s INDC policy in the form of carbon tax. To this end, the results from percentage changes in household consumption expenditure from the CGE model are linked to the 2010/11Ethiopian household expenditure and consumption survey micro data which covers 27,835 households (CSA 2011). In accordance with the CGE simulations four scenarios have been considered. The first represents the implementation of a carbon tax where the revenues are entirely absorbed by government expenditure. The second represents the implementation of the carbon tax with lump sum transfer of 50% of the tax revenue to households. The third and fourth simulations add government expenditure induced productivity gains (in education and health) to the first and second simulations respectively. We found that INDC policy for Ethiopia would be costly to households under the first and third simulations. With the second and fourth simulations, we found sensible results whereby an improvement in poverty; inequality and welfare have been observed. The urban poor have benefited more from both the compensation plan and productivity gains than the rural non-poor. More importantly, compensation to households is more equitable than allocating the carbon tax revenue for government expenditure. The results suggest that compensation of carbon tax revenue transfers should be structured such that the rural poor are more beneficiary as they are much larger in number and they are more affected by the carbon tax policy. Lastly, a huge international support is required to help the country achieve its emission reduction target at modest Poverty, welfare and distributional costs. Emission; carbon tax; INDC; poverty; inequality; welfare; Simulation; baseline; expenditure; Ethiopia

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

20

Breuss, Fritz. "WTO dispute settlement from an economic perspective. More failure than success?" Forschungsinstitut für Europafragen, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2001. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1046/1/document.pdf.

Full text

Abstract:

Since its inception in 1995, more than 200 disputes have been raised under the WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU). In spite of the obvious numerical success of the DS system of the WTO, in practice several shortcomings call for institutional and/or procedural change. This analysis deals with the economic aspects of the DS system. First, it turns out that the WTO DS system seems to be "biased". The larger and richer trading nations (USA, EU) are the main users of this system, either because of the larger involvement in world trade, or because the LDCs simply lack the legal resources. Second, in taking advantage of recent theoretical explanations of the WTO system in general (trade talks) and the DS system in particular (aberrations from WTO compliance can lead to trade wars) one can theoretically derive the relative robust result concerning the present practice of the WTO DS system: retaliation with tariffs is ineffective, distorts allocation and is difficult to control. This is also demonstrated in an CGE model analysis for the most popular disputes between the EU and the USA: the Hormones, the Bananas and the FSC cases. The major conclusion of our economic evaluation is that the DS system of retaliation should be changed towards a transfer-like retaliation system. (author's abstract)
Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

21

Zhu, En. "The role of US agricultural and forest activities in global climate change mitigation." [College Station, Tex. : Texas A&M University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-1406.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

22

Fernando, G. W. J. Sriyantha. "Tourism in Sri Lanka and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Effects of Post-War Tourism Boom." Thesis, Griffith University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366944.

Full text

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is two-fold. First, it aims to undertake a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the performance of the Sri Lankan tourism sector using historical data and policy documents and to present a historical narrative on tourism. Second, it aims to analyse the effects of the post-war tourism boom on the Sri Lankan economy within an economy-wide framework by developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, labelled as SLCGE-Tourism. In the process of achieving the above objectives the study addressed two knowledge gaps related to Sri Lankan tourism as identified in the literature. The first knowledge gap is that there is a lack of systematic historical analysis of Sri Lankan tourism both in terms of policy and data. This study contributes significantly in addressing this knowledge gap by undertaking a number of complementary analyses. Firstly, it undertakes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of post-independence tourism promotion strategies in the economic development process. It shows that Sri Lanka had many post-independence advantages, especially given its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and on the major air and sea routes between Europe and the Far East. However, it missed opportunities due to inward-oriented development policies implemented by successive governments until 1977 and the three decade long civil war and other political violence ending in 2009.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
Full Text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

23

Al-Hawwas, Abdullah. "Policy experiments for the Saudi's economy using a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) : oil demand and tariff liberalisation effects on the Saudi economy." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2010. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/5028d3bf-71ed-4788-b032-945fd8b002c9.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive analysis using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for the economy of Saudi Arabia and of the possible effects of some policy measures. It further explains the mechanisms through which they affect different economic agents. Using a static CGE Model, we show the possible micro and macroeconomic effects of an exogenous shock of world oil demand and the possibility of adapting a trade liberalisation regime in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, this study comprises of two main experiments each with a number of simulations. The first experiment examines the effects of an increase in world oil demand on the Saudi economy. Due to the significant effects of closure rules on the results, this experiment implements two simulations based on an alternative closure rules, the first in which saving is flexible and investment remains fixed, the second in which investmentis flexible and saving remain fixed. The second experiment investigates the impact of tariff elimination on the Saudi economy. As a result of dropping the import tax, government revenue declines. Based on that the experiment includes three simulations:(i) Examines the effects of tariff elimination without revenue neutral policies, (ii) examines the effects of tariff elimination combined with revenue neutral policy (sales tax) and (iii) examines the effects of tariff elimination combined with income tax.Sensitivity analysis has been done to test the robustness of the model. Household welfare effects have also been measured across households using an Equivalent Variation measure (EV). The study concludes that the third simulation (iii) in the second experiment is preferred in case compensation tariff drop but the first simulation (i) in second experiment is better and use oil revenue for compensation instead.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

24

Schneider, Martin, and Manfred M. Fischer. "Multiregional Computational General Equilibrium, and Spatial Interaction Trade Modelling: An Empirical Example." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 1999. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4142/1/WSG_DP_6899.pdf.

Full text

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effects of enhanced trade between Austria and its four neighbouring Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Slovenia) on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria. The analysis is based on two distinct modelling traditions at the centre of regional science. The first model (a Fischer-Johansson Model of bilateral trade flows) is used to predict the volume and commodity composition of future trade flows based on a long term income scenario. The predicted long-term increases of the trade flows are huge. Exports rise by 190 % and imports by 160 % (compared to 1995). The effects of these trade flows on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria are simulated by means of a multiregional computable general equilibrium model for the Austrian economy. The model contains the 9 Federal Provinces (NUTS-II). The likely implications of the projected trade flows are measured in terms of real income, which can be expected to rise by 1.2 %. The welfare gains will not necesarily be shared equally by all Federal Provinces. The results indicate a clear East-West pattern with the eastern regions of Austria gaining most. (authors' abstract)
Series: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

25

Widjaja, Muliadi. "Designing Pension Programs to Strengthen Formal Labor Markets in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2008. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/econ_diss/50.

Full text

Abstract:

Despite abundant studies of the application of pension systems in developed countries, little work has been done on how to apply a sustainable pension system in developing countries. The set-up of pension systems in developed countries and developing countries are expected to be different because in developing countries, labor is concentrated in the informal production sectors, while labor in developed countries is concentrated in the formal production sectors. Informal production sectors are sectors where the government, either central or local government, has little access to implement fiscal policies (taxes and subsidies) on firms and labor. This research develops a comprehensive system on how to set-up pension policies generally in developing countries and specifically in Indonesia. The basic set-up of the pension system suggested in this dissertation is as follows: a short run consumption tax policy to finance a defined benefit plan to support minimum physical needs of the older population, a medium run labor income tax policy to finance individuals' defined contribution fully funded savings plan, and a long run skilled labor creation through university education so that individuals are able to self-finance their own pension savings through the fully funded savings plan. The defined benefit plan is important because it can serve as a societal redistribution tool, while the defined contribution plan serves as a household savings tool. In addition, the skilled labor creation serves as a supporting tool so that the pension program is sustained in the long run. A theoretical model is developed from Auerbach and Kotlikoff overlapping generation (OLG) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and specified for the Indonesian economy by introducing heterogeneity in households, where skilled and unskilled labor exist. In writing the model in terms of computer language, we apply an approach named mathematical programming system for general equilibrium analysis (MPSGE), developed by Thomas Rutherford. Some parameters used in the model are estimated by using econometric methods. The OLG-CGE model is applied in order to analyze the impact of consumption taxes and pension taxes on labor supply and also to calculate the equivalent variation of the distribution of consumption taxes burden across generations. Meanwhile, the impact of skilled labor creation on economic growth is calculated by applying linear algebra. The main macroeconomy data is taken from the Indonesian social accounting matrix (SAM) year 2000. Meanwhile, labor data are taken from the Indonesian labor conditions 1998-2003. The findings in this dissertation are as follows: for the equivalent variations, the consumption taxes for USD 1, USD 2, and USD 3 cash transfers per day person gave more benefit to the skilled labor than to the unskilled ones. In the meantime, the consumption taxes for USD 1 cash transfer gave incentives to the highest amount of labor, both skilled and unskilled labor, to work in the formal sector. The amount of labor after the consumption taxes for USD 1 cash transfer is higher than the initial condition. Increasing the consumption taxes for the USD 2 cash transfer only decreased the amount of labor work in the formal sector, with the amount of skilled labor decreased more than the unskilled labor. In addition, increasing the consumption taxes for the USD 3 cash transfer would also decrease the amount of labor work in the formal sector, with the amount of unskilled labor decreased more than skilled labor. We also find that the elasticity of government education expenditures on skilled labor creation is roughly 0.3. This means that if the Indonesian central government would like to eliminate the informal sector by 25 percent within 20 years, or an average 1.25 percent annually, they should increase the government education expenditures to 8 percent of total annual government budget. Other findings are that the increase of skilled labor would contribute positively to Indonesian economic growth, while the consumption taxes and the fully funded pension taxes would be likely to reduce current economic growth but increase the future one. Finally, these are the theoretical contributions to public finance literature: first, given dual formal and informal labor sectors present in an economy, where the latter is dominant, taxation of expenditures is preferred to taxation of income because the first may induce labor to work in the formal sector; second, given dual formal and informal labor sectors present in an economy, where the latter is dominant, there exists an optimal rate of consumption taxes that provides incentives for the highest amount of labor, skilled and unskilled labor, to work in the formal sector.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

26

Le, Hoang Cuong. "An assessment of the economywide effects on Vietnam's ongoing microeconomic reform." Thesis, Curtin University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/2483.

Full text

Abstract:

Vietnam implemented the Doi Moi (or Renovation) policy in 1986. This policy involved the introduction of many structural reforms in an attempt to move Vietnam towards a market economy. As part of Doi Moi, Vietnam’s two ongoing microeconomic reform programs aimed at domestic enterprises are of particular significance, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms and the private sector development (PSD) policy. This thesis develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Vietnam (referred to as VNGEM) with twenty four industries, six labour groups based on educational qualifications and one representative household, which aims to assess the likely effects of these reform programs on Vietnam’s national economic outcomes and industries.These reform programs are found to be pro-growth as reflected in their contribution to increasing aggregate output in both short and long run. This output increase is largely the result of export expansion and local market expansion due to relatively lower domestic price levels. Hence, Vietnam experiences an expansion in aggregate employment and a trade surplus in the short run. Likewise, these reform programs generate positive welfare effects on household consumption in the long run as real wages and labour incomes rise. In terms of industry winners and losers, the most favourably affected industries in the short run include steel, electrical, and textile, clothing and footwear (TCF), while the least favourably affected industries include construction and public administration. These least favourably affected industries are either non-traded or inward-oriented. Hence, they do not benefit much from trade expansion.Similarly, the most favourably affected industries in the long run include electrical, steel and other manufacturing, while the least favourably affected industries include rice and paddy, and oil, gas and petroleum (OGP). These industries are least favourably affected because of rising labour cost and an increasing land rental rate, which significantly hamper their economic activities.The findings in this thesis suggest that promoting the private sector and, at the same time, reducing or removing the preferential treatment by the government of the SOE sector can solve Vietnam’s employment problem. Export-oriented industries such as the TCF industry are well positioned to absorb Vietnam’s labour force. To reduce trade deficits, domestic import-substituting producers need to improve their product quality and prices that are comparable to foreign goods in the medium and long term. Besides providing vocational training for workers, the government need to improve domestic human capital through education, and research and development(R&D) in order to acquire a sufficient number of high-skilled personnel to work with new technologies, machinery and equipment. Finally, to achieve greater reform outcomes, SOE reforms should be extended to include medium to large SOEs across all industries.Some areas of improvement include: (i) managing and utilising the compensation funds more wisely; (ii) unleashing the private sector and encouraging its participation in the equitisation process; (iii) improving the fairness and transparency of the equitisation process; (iv) improving the asset valuation method and strictly governing activities related to management buyouts and bankruptcy; (v) establishing a new structure of corporate governance to provide checks and balances in an enterprise; and (vi) reducing the government’s political influence on SOEs and equitised SOEs.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

27

Stepanyan, Davit. "Improving the Depiction of Uncertainty in Simulation Models by Exploiting the Potential of Gaussian Quadratures." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/22521.

Full text

Abstract:

Simulationsmodelle sind ein etabliertes Instrument zur Analyse von Auswirkungen exogener Schocks in komplexen Systemen. Die in jüngster Zeit gestiegene verfügbare Rechenleistung und -geschwindigkeit hat die Entwicklung detaillierterer und komplexerer Simulationsmodelle befördert. Dieser Trend hat jedoch Bedenken hinsichtlich der Unsicherheit solcher Modellergebnisse aufgeworfen und daher viele Nutzer von Simulationsmodellen dazu motiviert, Unsicherheiten in ihren Simulationen zu integrieren. Eine Möglichkeit dies systematisch zu tun besteht darin, stochastische Elemente in die Modellgleichungen zu integrieren, wodurch das jeweilige Modell zu einem Problem (mehrfacher) numerischer Integrationen wird. Da es für solche Probleme meist keine analytischen Lösungen gibt, werden numerische Approximationsmethoden genutzt. Die derzeit zur Quantifizierung von Unsicherheiten in Simulationsmodellen genutzt en Techniken, sind entweder rechenaufwändig (Monte Carlo [MC] -basierte Methoden) oder liefern Ergebnisse von heterogener Qualität (Gauß-Quadraturen [GQs]). In Anbetracht der Bedeutung von effizienten Methoden zur Quantifizierung von Unsicherheit im Zeitalter von „big data“ ist es das Ziel dieser Doktorthesis, Methoden zu entwickeln, die die Näherungsfehler von GQs verringern und diese Methoden einer breiteren Forschungsgemeinschaft zugänglich machen. Zu diesem Zweck werden zwei neuartige Methoden zur Quantifizierung von Unsicherheiten entwickelt und in vier verschiedene, große partielle und allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle integriert, die sich mit Agrarumweltfragen befassen. Diese Arbeit liefert methodische Entwicklungen und ist von hoher Relevanz für angewandte Simulationsmodellierer. Obwohl die Methoden in großen Simulationsmodellen für Agrarumweltfragen entwickelt und getestet werden, sind sie nicht durch Modelltyp oder Anwendungsgebiet beschränkt, sondern können ebenso in anderen Zusammenhängen angewandt werden.
Simulation models are an established tool for assessing the impacts of exogenous shocks in complex systems. Recent increases in available computational power and speed have led to simulation models with increased levels of detail and complexity. However, this trend has raised concerns regarding the uncertainty of such model results and therefore motivated many users of simulation models to consider uncertainty in their simulations. One way is to integrate stochastic elements into the model equations, thus turning the model into a problem of (multiple) numerical integration. As, in most cases, such problems do not have analytical solutions, numerical approximation methods are applied. The uncertainty quantification techniques currently used in simulation models are either computational expensive (Monte Carlo [MC]-based methods) or produce results of varying quality (Gaussian quadratures [GQs]). Considering the importance of efficient uncertainty quantification methods in the era of big data, this thesis aims to develop methods that decrease the approximation errors of GQs and make these methods accessible to the wider research community. For this purpose, two novel uncertainty quantification methods are developed and integrated into four different large-scale partial and general equilibrium models addressing agro-environmental issues. This thesis provides method developments and is of high relevance for applied simulation modelers who struggle to apply computationally burdensome stochastic modeling methods. Although the methods are developed and tested in large-scale simulation models addressing agricultural issues, they are not restricted to a model type or field of application.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

28

Siddiqui, Muhammad Shahid. "Three Essays on Environmental Economics and on Credit Market Imperfections." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/20161.

Full text

Abstract:

This dissertation contains three essays on environmental economics and on credit market imperfections. The literature on carbon tax incidence generally finds that carbon taxes have a regressive impact on the distribution of income. The main reason for that finding stems from the fact that poor households spend a larger share of their total expenditure on energy products than the rich households do. This literature, however, has ignored the impact of carbon taxes on income stemming from changes in relative factor prices. Yet, changes in household welfare depend not only on variations in commodity prices, but also on changes in income. Chapter 1 provides a comprehensive analysis of the distributional impact of carbon taxes on inequality by considering both demand-side and supply-side channels. We use a multi-sector, multi-household general equilibrium model to analyze the distributional impact of carbon taxes on inequality. Using equivalent income as the household welfare metric, we apply the Shapley value and concentration index approaches to decomposing household inequality. Our simulation results suggest that carbon taxes exert a larger negative impact on the income of the rich than that of the poor, and are thereby progressive. On the other hand, when assessed from the use side alone (i.e., commodity prices alone), our results confirm previous findings, whereas carbon taxes are regressive. However, due to the stronger incidence of carbon taxes on inequality from the income side, our results suggest that the carbon tax tends to reduce inequality. These findings further suggest that the traditional approach of assessing the impact of carbon taxes on inequality through changes in commodity prices alone may be misleading. Chapter 2 investigates the economic impacts of creating an emissions bubble between Canada and the US in a context of subglobal participation in efforts to reduce pollution with market based-instruments. One of the advantages of an emissions bubble is that it can be beneficial to countries that differ in their production and consumption patterns. To address the competitiveness issue that arises from the free-rider problem in the area of climate-change mitigation, we consider the imposition of a border tax adjustment (BTA) - a commonly suggested solution in the literature. We develop a detailed multisector and multi-regional general equilibrium model to analyze the welfare, aggregate, sectoral and trade impacts of the formation of an emissions bubble between Canada and the US with and without BTA. Our simulation results suggest that, in the absence of BTA, the creation of the bubble would make both countries better off through a positive terms-of-trade effect, and more importantly, through a significant reduction in Canada’s marginal abatement cost. The benefits of these positive effects would spill over to the non-participating countries, leading them to increase their trade shares in non-emissions-intensive goods. Moreover, the simulation results also indicate that a unilateral implementation of a BTA by any one of the two countries is welfare deteriorating in the imposing country and welfare improving in the other. In contrast, a joint implementation of a BTA by the two countries would make Canada better off and the US worse off. Chapter 3 shows that learning by lending is a potential channel of understanding the business cycle fluctuation under an imperfect credit market. An endogenous link among the learning parameter, lending rates, and the size of investment makes it possible to generate an internal propagation even due to a temporary shock. The main finding of this chapter is the explanation of how ex post non-financial factors such as information losses by individual agents in a credit market may account for a persistence in real indicators such as capital stock and output.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

29

Li, Wang. "Issues on economic relations between the EU and China and evaluation on the impact of Chinaś tariff change on the two economies with a CGE model." Berlin Logos-Verl, 2009. http://d-nb.info/994721218/04.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

30

Gounder, Neelesh. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Fiji: A Computable General Equilibrium - Microsimulation Analysis." Thesis, Griffith University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367969.

Full text

Abstract:

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether trade liberalization, in terms of complete tariff reductions, will contribute to poverty reduction in Fiji. Whilst poverty reduction is the ultimate goal of trade reforms, and if trade liberalization does promote growth, then will the poor benefit from this trade liberalization? Previous studies on trade liberalization on Fiji are based on partial equilibrium as well as general equilibrium analysis. These studies have shown that trade liberalization will have positive impacts on the Fijian economy. Trade liberalization is unlikely to produce equivalent results of its impact on poverty across households and regions. Thus even within a country or geographic regions, households and individuals are likely to be differently impacted. However, none of the existing studies focus on the impact of trade liberalization on poverty at the household level. This, according to my knowledge, is thus the first study using a computable general equilibrium combined with a microsimulation approach for analysing the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in Fiji. This research will therefore further our understanding of the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in a small island developing country. It will also fill the gap in the literature on Fiji which lacks the impact of macroeconomic policies such as the impact of trade liberalization on poverty.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
Full Text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

31

ANINDYA, BHATTACHARYA. "An Integrated Analytical Framework of Sustainable Energy for All: Developing Asia Perspective." Kyoto University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/199411.

Full text

Abstract:

Kyoto University (京都大学)
0048
新制・課程博士
博士(エネルギー科学)
甲第19087号
エネ博第311号
新制||エネ||64(附属図書館)
32038
京都大学大学院エネルギー科学研究科エネルギー社会・環境科学専攻
(主査)教授手塚哲央, 教授宇根﨑博信, 准教授 MCLELLAN Benjamin
学位規則第4条第1項該当

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

32

Look, Wesley Allen. "The economics of US greenhouse gas emissions reduction policy : assessing distributional effects across households and the 50 United States using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79205.

Full text

Abstract:

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2013.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 60-62).
The political economy of US climate policy has revolved around state- and district- level distributional economics, and to a lesser extent household-level distribution questions. Many politicians and analysts have suggested that state- and district-level climate policy costs (and their distribution) are a function of local carbon intensity and commensurate electricity price sensitivity. However, other studies have suggested that what is most important in determining costs is the means by which revenues from a price on carbon are allocated. This is one of the first studies to analyze these questions simultaneously across all 50 United States, household income classes and a timeframe that reflects most recent policy proposals (2015 - 2050). I use a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economic effects of a US "cap-and-dividend" policy, by simulating the implementation of the Carbon Limits and Energy for America's Renewal (CLEAR) Act, a bill proposed by Senators Cantwell (D-WA) and Collins (R-ME) in 2009. I find that while carbon intensity and electricity prices are indeed important in determining compliance costs in some states, they are only part of the story. My results suggest that revenue allocation mechanisms and new investment trends related to the switch to low-carbon infrastructure are more influential than incumbent carbon intensity or electricity price impacts in determining the distribution of state-level policy costs. These findings suggest that the current debate in the United States legislature over climate policy, and the constellation of both supporters and dissenters, is based upon an incomplete set of assumptions that must be revisited. Finally, please note that this study does not claim to comprehensively model the CLEAR Act,. nor does it incorporate a number of important data and assumptions, including: the latest data on natural gas resources and prices, the price effects on coal of EPA greenhouse gas and mercury regulations, the most recent trends in renewable energy pricing.
by Wesley Allen Look.
S.M.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

33

André, Hampus, and Max Jonsson. "Svaret är 42, men vad är frågan? : En analys av EMEC-modellen och dess effekter på svensk klimatpolitik." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-172379.

Full text

Abstract:

EMEC är en allmänjämviktsmodell som har använts av Konjunkturinstitutet för att beräkna samhällsekonomiska kostnader av styrmedel, och utvärdera kostnadseffektivitet som en del av det svenska klimatpolitiska beslutsunderlaget. Med anledning av kritik som har riktats mot modellen har detta examensarbete syftat till att analysera EMEC och dess effekter i klimatpolitiken, samt belysa och diskutera aspekter som eventuellt behövs utvecklas eller hanteras på ett annat sätt i den svenska klimatpolicyutvärderingen. En intervju - och litteraturstudie bidrog med ett kontrasterande aktörsperspektiv på olika identifierade nyckelaspekter som sedan utgjorde ett ramverk för analysen av en efterföljande empirisk studie. Resultaten visar att det finns starka skäl att påstå att modellen har överskattat kostnader av utsläppsminskningar vilket sannolikt har påverkat Sveriges klimatpolitiska inriktning. I direkt anknytning till modellen argumenteras detta bero på svårigheten i att göra antaganden om framtida teknik-och prisutvecklingar, samt på modellens statiska utformning. I samband med modellens klimatpolitiska roll kan det argumenteras bero på ett relativt kortsiktigt tidsperspektiv och en endimensionell bedömning av klimatomställningens nytta i relation till klimatfrågans långsiktighet och flerdimensionella nyttosida. Det kan också påpekas att detta fördyrar klimatpolitiken på lång sikt. En alternativ klimatpolicyutvärdering tillämpar ett bredare grepp genom att exempelvis inkludera de dynamiska kostnader som är förknippade med inlåsningseffekter i kolintensiva strukturer, vilket med en kontrafaktisk jämförelse sänker kostnaden av en klimatpolicy. Vid fortsatt styrmedelsutvärdering med EMEC föreslås en förändring av hur resultaten ska tolkas. Givet att det politiska sammanhanget också fortsättningsvis kräver kvantitativa underlag finns det ett behov av en mer varierad klimatpolicyutvärdering, där också kvalitativa aspekter och fler indikatorer än BNP beaktas som komplement.
EMEC is a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model used for calculation of societal costs and evaluation of cost-effectiveness in the decision basis of Swedish climate policy. The model has been criticized for exaggerating societal costs of policies, exemplified by Sweden's relative decoupling of GDP and carbon dioxide emissions during 1990-2010. Thereby, one could argue that the model results possibly have led to less ambitious climate targets in Sweden. With the model's suitability being questioned and an expressed need for better climate policy evaluation, this master thesis aims to analyse EMEC and its effects on Sweden's climate policy. It also aims to highlight key aspects for improved climate policy evaluation. Literature and interview studies were conducted in order to form a balanced framework of different actors' perspectives on the issue. This related to several identified aspects that were considered important by the authors in the context of the EMEC model. The subsequent empirical study of three periods of Swedish climate-political processes used these results as a basis for discussion. The results imply that the critique about exaggerated costs very likely is justified, which probably also has affected Sweden's climate-political direction. Regarding the model itself, the principal reasons are argued to be its static nature and the difficulties associated with predicting future technological- and world-market price developments. Connected to the model's role, the principal reasons are argued to be rooted in its relatively short-term perspective and one-dimensional definition of benefits, compared to the long-term and multi-dimensional nature of a transition to a low-carbon society. These features have, in this study, been argued to weaken the long-term cost-effectiveness of Sweden's climate policy. The EMEC-model's principal effects in this respect have been constituted in the arguments for general policies over sector-specific goals as well as emission reductions abroad. An alternative evaluation framework would include a wider range of benefits and costs associated with climate policy, for example dynamic costs of lock-in effects in carbon intensive structures. This would decrease the costs of climate policy in a counter-factual comparison. It could be argued that a qualitative decision basis would be more appropriate considering the complexities and difficulties associated with modelling a largely uncertain future. Especially, since model results are based on the same historic trends that need to be abandoned in order to reach future climate targets. However, considering that the climate-political process demands a quantitative decision-basis, qualitative aspects should function as a complement and gain increased emphasis in the Swedish climate- political decision basis. This would purposively broaden the framework and serve as a necessary balance to the indications given by results on GDP. Given that the EMEC model to some extent continues to constitute a basis for climate policy, suggestions for alternative interpretations of the model results have also been provided.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

34

Cuadra, Carrasco Gabriela, and Hoyle David Florián. "El sector agrícola y los procesos de inserción internacional latinoamericanos." Economía, 2012. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/116810.

Full text

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the effects of the liberalization and/or exclusion of the agricultural sector in the integration processes in which are immersed the Latin American Countries from the comparison of four different ways from liberalization. The central objective consists of determining if it is necessary that this sector receives a special treatment in comparison with the rest of economic sectors, or if the complete liberalization is more/less favorable than the exclusion of the agriculture in the integration processes. We used a static CGE model, multisectorial, multicountry of short and long term that has a predominantly agricultural aggregation. Between the main results we found that although the four types of liberalization generate positive results in the Latin American economies; for Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador-Bolivia, Argentina and Uruguay the multilateral strategy that excludes the agricultural sector generates greater benefits than the net tariff liberalization. Despite if we compare the tariff liberalization versus the total liberalization (one that includes export subsidies elimination and band of prices), all the countries with exception of Peru and Venezuela register greater benefits with the total liberalization.
El presente documento analiza los efectos de la liberalización y/o exclusión del sector agrícola en los procesos de integración en los que se encuentran inmersos los países latinoamericanos a partir de la comparación de cuatro diferentes modos de liberalización. El objetivo central consiste en determinar si es o no necesario que este sector reciba un tratamiento especial en comparación con el resto de sectores económicos, o si es más favorable la liberalización completa o la exclusión del agro en los procesos de integración. Para ello, empleamos como herramienta un modelo EGC estático, multipaís y multisectorial de corto y largo plazo, el cual cuenta con una desagregación predominantemente agrícola. Entre los principales resultados encontramos que si bien los cuatro tipos de liberalización generan resultados positivos en las economías latinoamericanas, para el Perú, Venezuela, Ecuador-Bolivia, Argentina y Uruguay la estrategia multilateral que excluye al sector agrícola genera mayores beneficios que la liberalización netamente arancelaria. No obstante, si se compara la liberalización netamente arancelaria versus la total (que incluye eliminación de los subsidios a la exportación y franja de precios), todos los países, con excepción de Perú y Venezuela, registran mayores beneficios con la liberalización total.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

35

Pham, Tien Duc, and n/a. "A new approach to regional modelling: an Integrated Regional Equation System (IRES)." Griffith University. School of International Business and Asian Studies, 2004. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20041022.083520.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis develops a new structure that explicitly combines two CGE models, a national and a regional, in an integrated structure that gives the thesis model the name IRES, in short for the Integrated Regional Equation System. The typical features of the integrated structure are the adding-up conditions and the two-way linkages between the national and the regional modules facilitated by the interface shifters. The adding-up conditions ensure the two modules produce consistent results and updated databases. The inclusion of the interface shifters on the one hand plays a role in ensuring compatibility of results of the two modules, i.e. no distortion occurs because technical or taste changes are transferred across modules. On the other hand, the interface shifters assist the operation of IRES in different modes: the model can be used as a top-down model, a bottom-up model or an integrated model where national and regional shocks can be introduced at the same time. Hence, IRES has more flexibility in its application than a regional model or a national model alone, as IRES can make use of availability of data at any levels in the economy. IRES has a new labour market in which regional migration is no longer the only factor that settles the labour market as in the original setting of the MMRF model. Regional unemployment and regional participation rates are modelled to response to changes in regional employment growth using elasticities estimated econometrically in this thesis. IRES implements historical patterns of regional migration so that results of regional migration are consistent with observed patterns. Altogether, regional migration, regional unemployment and participation rates determine the equilibrium of the labour market. IRES adopts new approaches to modelling margin demands and indirect taxes. These new approaches are very effective in reducing the size of IRES but they do not compromise the use of the model. These approaches are readily applicable to any other regional CGE models.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

36

Cunha, Ramon Goulart. "Inserção e competitividade das exportações brasileiras nos mercados latino-americanos." Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, 2016. https://repositorio.ufjf.br/jspui/handle/ufjf/2193.

Full text

Abstract:

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-07-22T18:07:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ramongoulartcunha.pdf: 1428682 bytes, checksum: 586dd29c2871c103ab232e4a01a40830 (MD5)
Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-07-25T16:32:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ramongoulartcunha.pdf: 1428682 bytes, checksum: 586dd29c2871c103ab232e4a01a40830 (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-25T16:32:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ramongoulartcunha.pdf: 1428682 bytes, checksum: 586dd29c2871c103ab232e4a01a40830 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-08
CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
FAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
O objetivo desta dissertação consiste em avaliar os possíveis desdobramentos da política de expansão das exportações brasileiras para com os mercados latino-americanos. De forma específica, pretende-se analisar quais seriam os prováveis desfechos macroeconômicos e setoriais da busca por maior inserção e competitividade das exportações brasileiras na região da América Latina e Caribe. A partir de um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (EGC) (LATES-BR (Perobelli et al., 2015), os vínculos intersetoriais, bem como os efeitos de segunda ordem e substituição, são considerados nas projeções. O Plano Nacional de Exportações 20152018 (PNE 2015-2018) serve como base, na medida em que relaciona os produtos e mercados em potencial na região. Os principais resultados alcançados apontam para uma variação positiva sobre o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em aproximadamente 0,15 a 0,16%, e sugerem um aumento entre 0,11 e 0,13% para o emprego agregado, no curto prazo. Por sua vez, no ambiente econômico de longo prazo, o PIB tende a crescer de 0,18 a 0,20%, e o salário real possivelmente se eleva de 0,49 a 0,50%. Em termos setoriais, os produtos com maiores demandas por ganhos de eficiência produtiva (isto é, com maiores exigências por aumento de produtividade) corresponde à Óleos e gorduras vegetais e animais, Carne de suíno, Bovinos e outros animais vivos, Produtos de madeira, exclusive móveis, Defensivos agrícolas e desinfetantes domissanitários, Produtos químicos diversos, Automóveis, camionetas e utilitários e Caminhões e ônibus, inclusive cabines, carrocerias e reboques. Em virtude da heterogeneidade no que tange a intensidade e substituição no uso dos fatores primários, às variações sobre a produtividade podem ser maiores (ou menores) a depender do modo como se dá a melhoria de eficiência produtiva (de modo geral, somente pelo trabalho ou exclusivamente pelo capital). Um exemplo se aplica ao Minério de ferro, que por ser intensivo no uso do fator capital exige um esforço produtivo muito elevado quando o ganho de eficiência produtiva se dá pelo trabalho. Destarte, acredita-se que as técnicas utilizadas nesta dissertação, assim como os resultados nela projetados, possam servir de instrumento para os agentes da política comercial brasileira. Em destaque, nas discussões sobre factibilidade e efeitos das políticas de comércio e metas traçadas (ou a serem traçadas) no PNE 2015-2018.
The aim of this work is to evaluate the possible consequences of the expansion of Brazilian exports policy towards the Latin American markets. Specifically, it intends to analyze what are the likely macroeconomic and sectoral outcomes of the search for greater integration and competitiveness of Brazilian exports in the Latin American and Caribbean region. From a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (LATES-BR (Perobelli et al., 2015), intersectoral linkages, as well as second-round effects and replacement, are considered in the projections. The National Export Plan 2015-2018 (PNE 2015-2018) serves as a reference to the extent that relates potential products and markets in the region. The main results point to a positive growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by about 0.15 to 0.16%, and suggest an increase between 0.11 and 0.13% for the aggregate employment in the short run. In turn, the long run economic environment, the GDP tends to increase from 0.18 to 0.20%, and salary real possibly rises from 0.49 to 0.50%. In terms of sectors, products with higher demands for productive efficiencies (i.e., with greater demands for increased productivity) match Oils and vegetable and animal fats, Pork, Cattle and other live animals, wood products, furniture exclusive, Pesticides and household cleaning disinfectants, Various chemicals products, Cars, trucks and SUVs and trucks and buses, including cabins, truck bodies and trailers. Because of heterogeneity regarding the intensity and replace the use of primary factors, the variations on productivity may be higher (or lower) depending on the way how is the improvement of production efficiency (generally, only at work or only by capital). An example applies to the iron ore, which should be intensive in the use of capital factor requires a very high productive effort when the gain productive efficiency is through work. Thus, it is believed that the techniques used in this work, as well as the results designed from this work can serve as a tool for agents of Brazil's trade policy. Highlighted in discussions about feasibility and effects of trade policies and targets set (or to be traced) in the PNE 2015-2018.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

37

Pham, Tien Duc. "A new approach to regional modelling: an Integrated Regional Equation System (IRES)." Thesis, Griffith University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366367.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis develops a new structure that explicitly combines two CGE models, a national and a regional, in an integrated structure that gives the thesis model the name IRES, in short for the Integrated Regional Equation System. The typical features of the integrated structure are the adding-up conditions and the two-way linkages between the national and the regional modules facilitated by the interface shifters. The adding-up conditions ensure the two modules produce consistent results and updated databases. The inclusion of the interface shifters on the one hand plays a role in ensuring compatibility of results of the two modules, i.e. no distortion occurs because technical or taste changes are transferred across modules. On the other hand, the interface shifters assist the operation of IRES in different modes: the model can be used as a top-down model, a bottom-up model or an integrated model where national and regional shocks can be introduced at the same time. Hence, IRES has more flexibility in its application than a regional model or a national model alone, as IRES can make use of availability of data at any levels in the economy. IRES has a new labour market in which regional migration is no longer the only factor that settles the labour market as in the original setting of the MMRF model. Regional unemployment and regional participation rates are modelled to response to changes in regional employment growth using elasticities estimated econometrically in this thesis. IRES implements historical patterns of regional migration so that results of regional migration are consistent with observed patterns. Altogether, regional migration, regional unemployment and participation rates determine the equilibrium of the labour market. IRES adopts new approaches to modelling margin demands and indirect taxes. These new approaches are very effective in reducing the size of IRES but they do not compromise the use of the model. These approaches are readily applicable to any other regional CGE models.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of International Business and Asian Studies
Full Text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

38

Arif, Faisal. "Three Essays on the Economics of Climate Change." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/20721.

Full text

Abstract:

Thesis Abstract: Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options. Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes. Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

39

Estrades, Carmen. "Une analyse de l'impact de chocs extérieurs et de réformes de politique commerciale sur la pauvreté et l’inégalité en Uruguay." Thesis, Bordeaux 4, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012BOR40029/document.

Full text

Abstract:

L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer différents chocs extérieurs et des réformes de politique commerciale sur une petite économie ouverte comme l'Uruguay, en mettant l’accent sur la compréhension des canaux de transmission des chocs vers la répartition des revenus et la pauvreté. Plus précisément, j'évalue deux chocs externes –la récente crise financière et une augmentation des prix alimentaires et pétroliers- et une réforme de politique commerciale: la négociation d'un accord de libre-échange entre le Mercosur et l'Union Européenne. Pour ce faire, j’applique différents modèles d'équilibre général (EGC): deux modèles statiques uni-pays et un modèle global dynamique, MIRAGE-HH, qui comprend une désagrégation des ménages. Les modèles EGC sont combinées avec des techniques de microsimulation: microsimulation non-paramétrique et méthode «micro-accounting». Comme les chocs extérieurs peuvent avoir un impact négatif sur la pauvreté en Uruguay, j’évalue aussi les options politiques visant à atténuer cet impact négatif. Les résultats montrent que les canaux de transmission des réformes de politique commerciale et des chocs extérieurs sont divers et complexes et ils peuvent avoir des effets opposés sur la pauvreté. Ils mettent également en évidence le fait que l'impact sur les différents groupes de population n'est pas uniforme. Dans certains cas, les chocs positifs sur l'économie peuvent encore nuire à des groupes de population. Dans la plupart des cas, les groupes affectés négativement sont les populations déjà vulnérables ayant peu de ressources pour faire face à ces chocs. Pour cette raison, il est important d'évaluer aussi des réponses politiques pour éviter cet impact négatif sur les pauvres
The aim of this dissertation is to evaluate different external shocks and trade policies on a small open economy such as Uruguay, making an emphasis in understanding the channels of transmission of the shocks to income distribution and poverty in the country. Specifically, I evaluate two external shocks –the recent financial crisis and an increase in food and oil prices- and one trade policy –the negotiation of a free trade agreement between MERCOSUR (conformed by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) and the European Union. For doing so, I apply different general equilibrium models: two different static single country models and one global dynamic model, MIRAGE-HH, which includes household disaggregation. The CGE models are combined with microsimulation techniques: non-parametric microsimulations and micro-accounting methods. Results show that the channels of transmission of trade policies and external shocks are diverse and complex and they may have opposite effects on welfare and poverty. They also highlight the fact that the impact on different population groups is not even. In some cases, positive shocks on the economy may still harm population groups. In most cases,iiithey are the already vulnerable population who count with fewer resources to counteract negative shocks. For this reason, it is important to also evaluate policy responses to prevent this negative impact on the poor

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

40

Vaittinen, Risto. "Trade policies and integration evaluations with CGE-models /." Helsinki : Helsinki School of Economics, 2004. http://helecon3.hkkk.fi/pdf/diss/a235.pdf.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

41

Ferraz, Lucas Pedreira do Couto. "Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/7683.

Full text

Abstract:

Submitted by Lucas Pedreira do Couto Ferraz (lucaspcf@gmail.com) on 2010-09-28T19:40:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis_PhD.pdf: 996294 bytes, checksum: cf266060bc6c236aa36c8a4e4775224d (MD5)
Approved for entry into archive by Andrea Virginio Machado(andrea.machado@fgv.br) on 2010-09-29T12:58:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis_PhD.pdf: 996294 bytes, checksum: cf266060bc6c236aa36c8a4e4775224d (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2010-10-01T17:44:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis_PhD.pdf: 996294 bytes, checksum: cf266060bc6c236aa36c8a4e4775224d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-04-16
This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

42

Punt, Cecilia. "Modelling multi-product industries in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/79959.

Full text

Abstract:

Thesis (PhD (Agric))--Stellenbosch University, 2013.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is common practice in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models that the output composition of multi-product industries remains constant despite changes in relative prices of products. The results of any scenario will show that products produced by a single industry will still be produced in the same ratio to each other as reflected by the base data. The objective of the study was to develop a CGE model for South Africa in which this assumption of fixed composition of output can be selectively relaxed. In order to allow industries to adjust their output composition in response to changes in relative prices of products a Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) function and the related first order condition were incorporated into an existing CGE model. This alternative specification of an output transformation function in the model enables the modeller to allow selected multi-product industries to increase production of products that show greater price increases relative to other products. The first order condition of the CET function determines the optimal combination of products for each industry. With the inclusion of the CET function there is a trade-off between theoretical rigour of the model and realism of the results, therefore an assumption of input-output separability was introduced as a way of recognising that the inclusion of a CET function violates the assumption that prices in the same row of a social accounting matrix (SAM) are equivalent. The model was calibrated with a SAM for South Africa for 2007 that was developed for purposes of this study. Set controls were included in the model to generalise the model in order that it can be calibrated with data from other countries as well. The SAM for South Africa contains provincial level information in the accounts for agriculture, labour and households. The agricultural industries are defined by geographical area, hence these industries are particularly good examples of multi-product industries that respond to relative price changes when determining production levels of individual products. The adjusted CGE model was used to analyse four scenarios focusing on selected issues mentioned in the National Development Plan for South Africa released by the National Planning Commission in 2011. The scenarios relate to increases in fruit exports as a result of global positioning, technical efficiency improvements for the agricultural sector through continued research and development, factor productivity growth in government and selected services sectors resulting from fighting corruption and curbing strikes, and augmenting the supply of skilled labour through an improvement in the quality of education. The results of the adjusted model show the desired effect: producers produce relatively more of the products for which they can get a relatively higher price and vice versa. This holds true regardless of whether the level of industry output increases or decreases. The impact of the model adjustment and the effects of changes in the levels of elasticities and choice of variables to close the model were analysed as part of the sensitivity analyses. The impact of changes in the functional form, elasticities and model closures on results, are different for each scenario.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is erkende praktyk in berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodelle dat die verhoudings waarin produkte tot mekaar geproduseer word deur multi-produk industrieë konstant gehou word, ongeag veranderings in relatiewe pryse van produkte. Die resultate van enige senario sal dus aandui dat die produkte wat deur 'n enkele industrie geproduseer word steeds in dieselfde verhouding tot mekaar geproduseer sal word, soos weerspieël in die basis data. Die doel van die studie was om 'n berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel vir Suid-Afrika te ontwikkel wat die aanname dat die samestelling van elke industrie se uitset onveranderbaar is, selektief kan verslap. Om toe te laat dat industrieë die samestelling van uitset kan aanpas namate die relatiewe pryse van produkte verander, is 'n Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie en die gepaardgaande eerste orde voorwaarde in 'n bestaande berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel ingesluit. Die eerste orde voorwaarde bepaal die optimale verhoudings waarin produkte geproduseer moet word. Met die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word teoretiese korrektheid van die model ingeboet in ruil vir meer realistiese resultate, dus is die aanname van inset-uitset onafhanklikheid gemaak en daardeur word ook erken dat as gevolg van die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word daar nie meer voldoen aan die aanname data alle pryse in dieselfde ry van die sosiale rekeninge matriks (SRM) aan mekaar gelyk is nie. Die model is gekalibreer met 'n SRM vir Suid-Afrika vir 2007 wat vir doeleindes van die studie ontwikkel is. Deur die insluiting van kontroles vir versamelings is die model veralgemeen sodat die model ook met data van ander lande gekalibreer kan word. Die SRM vir Suid-Afrika se rekeninge vir landbou, arbeid en huishoudings bevat inligting op provinsiale vlak. Die landbou industrieë is volgens geografiese gebiede afgebaken en is dus besonder goeie voorbeelde van multi-produk industrieë wat reageer op relatiewe prys veranderings wanneer die produksievlakke van afsonderlike produkte bepaal word. Die aangepaste algemene ewewigsmodel is gebruik om vier senarios te ondersoek wat fokus op geselekteerde onderwerpe vervat in die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan wat deur die Nasionale Beplanningskommissie van Suid Afrika in 2011 vrygestel is. Die senarios hou verband met 'n styging in vrugte uitvoere as gevolg van globale posisionering, tegniese produktiwiteitsverhogings vir die landbousektor deur volgehoue navorsing en ontwikkeling, verhoging in die produktiwiteit van produksiefaktore van die regering en geselekteerde dienste sektore deur die aanspreek van korrupsie en vermindering in stakings, en die toename in geskoolde arbeid deur 'n verbetering in die kwaliteit van onderwys. Resultate van die aangepaste model toon die gewenste uitwerking: produsente produseer relatief meer van die produkte waarvoor hulle 'n relatiewe hoër prys kan kry, en omgekeerd. Dit geld ongeag of daar 'n verhoging of 'n verlaging in die vlak van die industrie se uitset is. Die impak van die modelaanpassing, die effek van veranderings in die vlakke van elastisiteite en die keuse van veranderlikes om die model te sluit, is geanaliseer as deel van die sensitiwiteitsanalises. Die impak van veranderings in die funksionele vorm, elastisiteite en modelsluiting op resultate, is verskillend vir elke senario.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

43

Furtenback, Örjan. "Fuel substitution in district heating plants : CGE modeling with a forest resource /." Umeå : Sveriges lantbruksuniv, 2009. http://epsilon.slu.se/11862745.pdf.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

44

Smejkal, Tomáš. "Zhodnocení dopadů daňové politiky pomocí statického modelu obecné rovnováhy (CGE) v oblasti ochrany ovzduší v České republice." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-165584.

Full text

Abstract:

At the beginning of the year 2014 carbon tax should be introduced in Czech Republic with the main focus on decreasing CO2 emission from firms not involved in EU ETS. Potential repercussions of this regulatory tool depend on multiple complex events occurring within the economy. In response a macroeconomic general equilibrium model with the base year of 2009 was created. This model is able to identify complex events within the economy and simulate initiation of the tax itself. As a result of this model there is a conclusion that not all sectors will decrease their demand for newly taxed fossil fuels and that an increase of consumption for relatively less taxed fuels for instance natural gas might be expected as a result of the tax initiation. Carbon tax will be according to the simulation results indirectly but significantly influencing the energy sector, which will in spite of the relative cut-price of input fuels respond with decrease in electricity production. Consequent higher electricity price will then cause additional costs for taxed sectors. Important conclusion is also the fact that rational behavior of economic agents could lead to a lower emission reduction than is currently being expected and even further increase in the tax rate beyond 15 EUR/tCO2 would probably not lead to a significant reduction of CO2 emissions.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

45

Shah, Sohrab P. "Model based approaches to array CGH data analysis." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/2808.

Full text

Abstract:

DNA copy number alterations (CNAs) are genetic changes that can produce adverse effects in numerous human diseases, including cancer. CNAs are segments of DNA that have been deleted or amplified and can range in size from one kilobases to whole chromosome arms. Development of array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) technology enables CNAs to be measured at sub-megabase resolution using tens of thousands of probes. However, aCGH data are noisy and result in continuous valued measurements of the discrete CNAs. Consequently, the data must be processed through algorithmic and statistical techniques in order to derive meaningful biological insights. We introduce model-based approaches to analysis of aCGH data and develop state-of-the-art solutions to three distinct analytical problems. In the simplest scenario, the task is to infer CNAs from a single aCGH experiment. We apply a hidden Markov model (HMM) to accurately identify CNAs from aCGH data. We show that borrowing statistical strength across chromosomes and explicitly modeling outliers in the data, improves on baseline models. In the second scenario, we wish to identify recurrent CNAs in a set of aCGH data derived from a patient cohort. These are locations in the genome altered in many patients, providing evidence for CNAs that may be playing important molecular roles in the disease. We develop a novel hierarchical HMM profiling method that explicitly models both statistical and biological noise in the data and is capable of producing a representative profile for a set of aCGH experiments. We demonstrate that our method is more accurate than simpler baselines on synthetic data, and show our model produces output that is more interpretable than other methods. Finally, we develop a model based clustering framework to stratify a patient cohort, expected to be composed of a fixed set of molecular subtypes. We introduce a model that jointly infers CNAs, assigns patients to subgroups and infers the profiles that represent each subgroup. We show our model to be more accurate on synthetic data, and show in two patient cohorts how the model discovers putative novel subtypes and clinically relevant subgroups.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

46

Gersh, Danielle. "Single slot models for cage rotors." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.361677.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

47

Philip, Jean-Marc. "Dynamique intertemporelle et équilibre général calculable : Une application à l'accord de partenariat économique entre l'Union européenne et le Ghana." Thesis, Aix-Marseille 2, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011AIX24019.

Full text

Abstract:

L’objectif de la thèse est d’identifier la pertinence des modèles en équilibre général calculable (MEGC) pour analyser la problématique posée par les Accords de Partenariat Économique (APE) entre l’Union européenne et les pays ACP. Une revue de la littérature est d’abord réalisée, puis un modèle en équilibre général calculable (MEGC) à dynamique intertemporelle est construit pour analyser l’impact de l’APE sur un pays spécifique : le Ghana. À partir du constat portant sur la diversité des résultats de simulations, qui dépendent essentiellement de la structure du modèle et des modes de fermeture choisis par le modélisateur, ce travail cherche à mettre en évidence la largeur du faisceau de résultats possibles et l’impossibilité de mettre en avant les bénéfices potentiels qui peuvent être attendus d’un tel accord en s’appuyant simplement sur des MEGC néoclassiques standards
This work aims to analyze to what extent the use of an applied general equilibrium model (AGE) allows to correctly assess the potential economic impact of EPAs between ACP countries and the European Union. First, a review of the literature is conducted and then an intertemporal dynamic AGE model is built in order to assess the potential impact of EPA on a specific country: Ghana. From the variety of results resulting from the models simulations and depending on hypothesis made on the model structure and the type of closure chosen by the modeler, our work aims to stress the risk of using standard neoclassical Walrasian models to assess the potential benefits of an EPA on ACP countries economy

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

48

Štiller, Martin. "Návrh a budování center sdílených služeb v regionu CEE." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-191882.

Full text

Abstract:

Diploma thesis introduces general principles of design and build of Shared Service Centres. Shared Service Centre is described as a suitable platform for streamlining of internal supporting services. The thesis also introduces general principles of internal processes transformation into a shared service as well as procedure for selection of suitable location. Final assessment presents most convenient countries in the world for implementation of Shared Service Centres.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

49

COLOMBO, GIULIA. "Come legare modelli CGE a modelli di microsimulazione: questioni metodologiche ed applicate." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/227.

Full text

Abstract:

Questa tesi offre una descrizione dettagliata di come i modelli di equilibrio generale computazionale (CGE) ed i modelli di microsimulazione possano essere utilizzati congiuntamente, partendo dalla letteratura piú recente sull'argomento, e focalizzando l'attenzione in particolare sulla letteratura riguardante i paesi in via di sviluppo. La ragione principale per la quale questi modelli vengono utilizzati congiuntamente risiede nel fatto che il ricercatore vuole essere in grado di studiare contemporaneamente l'eterogeneità degli agenti economici e la complessità della distribuzione del reddito, ed allo stesso tempo di valutare gli effetti macroeconomici delle riforme. Nell'ultimo capitolo costruiamo un modello CGE-microsimulazione per l'economia del Nicaragua. Esso si rivela particolarmente adatto alla riforma di politica economica che vogliamo simulare: l'accordo di libero scambio commerciale tra i paesi dell'America Centrale e gli Stati Uniti è infatti una riforma di tipo macroeconomico, la quale potrebbe tuttavia avere effetti significativi sulla distribuzione del reddito. Con questo modello analizzeremo quindi gli effetti dell'accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti sulla distribuzione del reddito in Nicaragua. I risultati dell'analisi registrano soltanto piccole variazioni sia nelle principali variabili macroeconomiche che nella distribuzione del reddito e negli indici di povertà.
This thesis wants to give an assessment and a detailed description of how Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation models can be linked together, taking inspiration from the current literature, with a special focus concerning the literature on developing countries. The main reason why these models are linked together is that the modeller wants to be able to take into account full agents' heterogeneity and the complexity of income distribution, and at the same time to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the policy reforms. In the last chapter, we build a CGE-microsimulation model for the economy of Nicaragua. This model appears to be particularly suited to the policy reform we are willing to simulate with the model: the Free Trade Agreement of Central American countries with USA is mainly a macroeconomic reform, which on the other hand can have important effects on the distribution of income and on poverty. With such a model we will study the possible changes in the distribution of income in Nicaragua deriving from the Free Trade Agreement with USA. Our analysis finds only small changes both in the main macroeconomic variables and in the distribution of income and poverty indices.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

50

COLOMBO, GIULIA. "Come legare modelli CGE a modelli di microsimulazione: questioni metodologiche ed applicate." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/227.

Full text

Abstract:

Questa tesi offre una descrizione dettagliata di come i modelli di equilibrio generale computazionale (CGE) ed i modelli di microsimulazione possano essere utilizzati congiuntamente, partendo dalla letteratura piú recente sull'argomento, e focalizzando l'attenzione in particolare sulla letteratura riguardante i paesi in via di sviluppo. La ragione principale per la quale questi modelli vengono utilizzati congiuntamente risiede nel fatto che il ricercatore vuole essere in grado di studiare contemporaneamente l'eterogeneità degli agenti economici e la complessità della distribuzione del reddito, ed allo stesso tempo di valutare gli effetti macroeconomici delle riforme. Nell'ultimo capitolo costruiamo un modello CGE-microsimulazione per l'economia del Nicaragua. Esso si rivela particolarmente adatto alla riforma di politica economica che vogliamo simulare: l'accordo di libero scambio commerciale tra i paesi dell'America Centrale e gli Stati Uniti è infatti una riforma di tipo macroeconomico, la quale potrebbe tuttavia avere effetti significativi sulla distribuzione del reddito. Con questo modello analizzeremo quindi gli effetti dell'accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti sulla distribuzione del reddito in Nicaragua. I risultati dell'analisi registrano soltanto piccole variazioni sia nelle principali variabili macroeconomiche che nella distribuzione del reddito e negli indici di povertà.
This thesis wants to give an assessment and a detailed description of how Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation models can be linked together, taking inspiration from the current literature, with a special focus concerning the literature on developing countries. The main reason why these models are linked together is that the modeller wants to be able to take into account full agents' heterogeneity and the complexity of income distribution, and at the same time to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the policy reforms. In the last chapter, we build a CGE-microsimulation model for the economy of Nicaragua. This model appears to be particularly suited to the policy reform we are willing to simulate with the model: the Free Trade Agreement of Central American countries with USA is mainly a macroeconomic reform, which on the other hand can have important effects on the distribution of income and on poverty. With such a model we will study the possible changes in the distribution of income in Nicaragua deriving from the Free Trade Agreement with USA. Our analysis finds only small changes both in the main macroeconomic variables and in the distribution of income and poverty indices.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'CGE Model'

Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles