To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: CGEN.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'CGEN'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'CGEN.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse dissertations / theses on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Fraxe, Jaiza Maria Pinto. "Do geodireito ao Conselho de Gestão do Patrimônio Genético CGEN: caminhos e instrumentos de gestão do conhecimento biotecnológico na Amazônia." Universidade Federal do Amazonas, 2011. http://tede.ufam.edu.br/handle/tede/3086.
Full textAbstract:
Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-20T12:31:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Jaiza Maria Pinto Fraxe.pdf: 1743018 bytes, checksum: 6d8b9d82b71d72005e324a3238622586 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2011-11-17The Genetic Heritage Management Council (CGEN), is part of the Brazilian Environment Ministry MMA and was created by the MP 2.186-16 to serve as a deliberative and normative organism, an active voice for the protection of the native genetic patrimony, restoration of the environment and the sustainable use of natural resources. It is comprised of representatives from other Brazilian ministries, entities of the Federal Administration, besides representatives from the civil society and prosecutors. The CGEN is responsible for addressing the following issues: authorization for access to the genetic patrimony and research involving traditional knowledge of native populations, associated with genetic patrimony. In view of the complexity of the demands imposed by CGEN to meet the requirements of the regulatory framework and considering its eight years of existence this work was conducted aiming at assessing the past accomplishments of this council and impacts caused thereby. Additional approaches were carried out to investigate the pathways to be followed to adapt the so called Geodireito to the everyday facts and phenomena related to bioprospection of genetic resources in Brazil as well as exploitation of traditional knowledge of forest peoples. The methodological strategy adopted was based on theoretical and methodological paradigms of scientific research supported by dogmatic and non dogmatic principles provided by the legal system; principles from the positive law and from the nacional and foreign legal doctrines which are rooted on bioethics, anthropology, sociology, geography and mainly on biotechnology principles. Semi-structured interviews and oral testimony besides intensive literature revision were used as research tools for data collection. The ultimate goal of this work was contributing to expand discussions on the ethical and legal limits imposed to the advance of life science researches and to the sustainable exploitation of natural resources in the Amazon
O CGEN - Conselho de Gestão do Patrimônio Genético, órgão de caráter deliberativo e normativo criado pela MP 2.186-16 no âmbito do Ministério do Meio Ambiente - MMA, é integrado por representantes de diversos Ministérios, órgão e entidades da Administração Pública Federal, representantes da sociedade civil e Ministério Público. Dentre as competências do CGEN está a responsabilidade para emissão de autorização para pesquisas que envolvam o conhecimento tradicional associado ao patrimônio genético nacional. Diante da complexidade de ações que devem ser perpetradas para atender os requisitos do marco legal disciplinado por este órgão, o presente trabalho se propõe a pesquisar os caminhos multidisciplinares das pesquisas a serem percorridos diante do CGEN, em face da necessidade de adaptação do Geodireito ao estado de fatos e fenômenos cotidianos ligados à bioprospecção de recursos genéticos existentes no território brasileiro, bem como à exploração dos conhecimentos tradicionais dos povos da floresta. A metodologia está amparada no propósito dos paradigmas teórico-metodológicos de investigação científica, que se sustentam em princípios dogmáticos e não-dogmáticos, obtidos através do sistema jurídico, do direito positivo e da doutrina nacional e estrangeira, enquanto estes últimos se fundamentam em estudos da Bioética, Filosofia, Antropologia, Sociologia, Geografia e, sobretudo, Biotecnologia. Foi utilizada como instrumento de pesquisa a entrevista semi-estruturada. Tal investigação objetiva, finalmente, contribuir para a ampliação do debate argumentativo em torno dos limites ético-jurídicos impostos aos avanços das ciências da vida e da exploração sustentável de recursos naturais na Amazônia
2
Savergnini, Silvia Silveira Quintao. "Avaliação dos efeitos cardiovasculares do novo agonista do receptor MAS, CGEN 856S." Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1843/ICBD-8LRJEU.
Full textAbstract:
The increasing evidence of the beneficial effects of Angiotensin-(1-7) [Ang-(1- 7)] through the activation of its receptor Mas, as vasodilation, antiarrhythmogenesis, antitrombogenesis, antifibrogenesis, improvement of erectile dysfunction and lipdic and glicemic metabolism, raised the possibility to develop new drugs based on the ACE2/Ang-(17)/Mas axis. Advances in biotechnology allowed the discovery of a potential Mas agonist, CGEN-856S. This was achieved using a computational biology platform, developed by the biotechnology company Compugen, for predicting novel naturally occurring peptides that may activate G protein-coupled receptors. CGEN-856S was found to activate the Mas receptor, in a cell-based system (Shemesh et al., 2008). In this study we evaluated the cardiovascular effects of this potential Mas agonist, intending to clarify its specificity in binding Mas. CGEN-856S induced an endothelium- and NO-dependent vasodilating effect in aorta rings of mice and rats. The relaxing effect of CGEN-856S was mediated by Mas, as indicated by the lack of action in Mas knockout aortic rings and inhibition by the Mas antagonist, A-779. Our data also show the antiarrhythmogenic effect of CGEN-856S (0,04 nmol/L) in isolated rat hearts. This effect was followed by an improvement of the systolic and diastolic tension during reperfusion, without alterations on the heart rate. CGEN-856S also produced cardio-protection in the isoproterenol-induced heart remodeling model, as demonstrated by a reduction in collagen I, III and fibronectin staining, as well as an anti-hypertrophic effect. The acute (i.v.) and chronic (28 days) administration of CGEN-856S in spontaneously hypertensive rats produced a marked decrease in mean arterial pressure. Radioligand binding competition assay showed that CGEN-856S did not activate AT1 or AT2 Ang II receptors. On the other hand, the CGEN-856S induced an effective displacement of the FAM-Ang-(1-7) binding to CHO Mas-transfected cells. Furthermore, infarcted animals treated with the novel Mas agonist, presented an improvement of cardiac function and a reduction in myocardial infarcted area. These results reinforce the increasing evidence of a key role of Mas in the cardiovascular system. The discovery of CGEN-856S as a novel Mas agonist, might has a therapeutic value and represents an important step for exploration of the effects mediated by Mas and of its potential as a cardiovascular drug targetDevido à crescente evidência dos efeitos benéficos promovidos pelaAngiotensina-(1-7) [Ang-(1-7)] via receptor Mas, entre eles vasodilatação, antiarritmogênese, anti-trombogênese, anti-fibrogênese, facilitação da função erétil e melhora do metabolismo glicêmico e lipídico, o eixo ECA2/Ang-(1-7)/Mas é, atualmente, um alvo potencial para novas abordagens terapêuticas de doenças cardiovasculares. Recentes avanços em biotecnologia permitiram a descoberta de um potencial agonista do Mas, o CGEN-856S. Isto foi possível através da utilização de uma plataforma biológica computacional, desenvolvida pela empresa de biotecnologia Compugen, usada para identificar novos peptídeos ligantes de receptores acoplados à proteína G. A capacidade do CGEN-856S ativar o receptor Mas foi demonstrada pela indução do influxo de cálcio em células CHO-K1 cotransfectadas com o Mas (Shemesh et al., 2008). Neste estudo, avaliamos os efeitos cardiovasculares deste novo peptídeo, assim como sua especificidade de ligação ao Mas. Nossos dados mostram que o CGEN-856S induziu um efeito vasodilatador dependente do endotélio e da produção de óxido nítrico, em anéis de aorta de ratos e camundongos. O efeito relaxante do CGEN-856S foi mediado pela interação com o receptor Mas, como indicado pela inibição da resposta vasodilatadora na presença do A-779 e em anéis de aorta de camundongos KO-Mas. Nossos dados também mostram o efeito anti-arritmogênico induzido pelo CGEN-856S (0,04 nmol/L) em corações isolados de rato. Este efeito foi seguido de melhora da função cardíaca, observada pela preservação da tensão sistólica e diastólica durante a reperfusão, sem alterações na frequência cardíaca. Através da utilização do modelo de hipertrofia cardíaca induzida pelo isoproterenol, observamos que o CGEN-856S reduziu a deposição de colágeno I, III e fibronectina no coração, além de produzir efeito anti-hipertrófico. Além disso, a administração aguda (i.v.) e crônica (28 dias) do novo agonista do Mas produziu uma redução da pressão arterial em ratos espontaneamente hipertensos. Ensaios de competição de radioligante mostraram que o CGEN-856S possui baixa afinidade pelos receptores de angiotensina II, AT1 e AT2. Interessantemente, o composto CGEN-856S deslocou a ligação da FAM-Ang-(1-7) em células CHO transfectadas com o Mas. Finalmente, o papel cardioprotetor vido novo agonista do Mas, CGEN-856S, foi também observado no odelo de insuficiência cardíaca induzida pela oclusão da artéria coronária esquerda. O tratamento com o novo peptídeo preservou a função cardíaca pós-isquêmica de ratos infartados, além de reduzir a área de infarto. Estes resultados reforçam a crescente evidência de um papel chave do receptor Mas na função cardiovascular. A descoberta do CGEN-856S como um novo agonista do Mas representa um passo importante para a exploração das ações deste receptor e para a validação de seu potencial como alvo terapêutico em patologias cardiovasculares
3
Peluso, Antonio Augusto Bastos. "Efeito comparativo entre a angiotensina-(1-7) e o novo agonista do receptor MAS, CGEN 856S, nas vias AKT/eNOS e AKT/FOXO1 utilizando modelos celulares." Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1843/BUBD-9NBKEF.
Full textAbstract:
Biotechnology studies based on a computational platform developed by Compugen, Tel Aviv, Israel - allowed the discovery of a potential Mas agonist, CGEN 856S, which produces several effects resembling those produced by Angiotensin-(1-7) [Ang-(1-7)], including anti-hypertensive and cardioprotective effects, such as decrease of ischemia, renal and cardiac fibrosis reduction and vasodilation nitric oxide (NO) dependent. Moreover, CGEN 8566S attenuates isoproterenol-induced cardiac remodeling and myocardial infarction injury. Studies using phosphoproteomics have shown that Ang-(1-7) promotes FOXO1 activation and nuclear translocation in human aortic endothelial cells (HAEC). It is not clear, however, whether CGEN 856S is capable to activate the same intracellular pathways than those previously demonstrated for Ang-(1-7). This study evaluated and compared the effect of CGEN 856S and Ang-(1-7) on AKT/eNOS and AKT/FOXO1 activation, using different cell types. Mas-transfected CHO (Chinese Hamster Ovary - CHO-Mas) cells were stimulated with CGEN 856S and Ang-(1-7). Non-transfected CHO cells were used as control. The protein extract was used for, AKT, phospho-AKT, phospho-eNOS, phospho-FOXO1, Mas and GAPDH detection by western blot. CHO-Mas and CHO cells were also exposed to both peptides for NO release measurement, through DAF-FM incorporation technique. HAEC, A549 and DU145 (human tumoral linages from lungs and prostate, respectively) cells were treated with CGEN 856S and Ang-(1-7) with or without previous A779 treatment. The cells were used for immunolocalization of FOXO1, analyzed by confocal microscope and the nuclear fluorescence intensity was quantified. A549 and DU145 cells were also used for cytotoxicity test, being treated with a combination of PI3 kinase inhibitors wortmannin or LY294002 in different concentrations and CGEN856S or Ang-(1-7). The results showed a significant increase phosphorylation of AKT, eNOS as well as the dephosphorylation of FOXO1 only in CHO-Mas cells treated with CGEN856S and Ang-(1-7). CHO-Mas transfect cells treated with CGEN 856S and Ang-(1-7) also promoted a significant release of NO compared with CHO-Mas non-treated cell. No differences were observed in CHO non-transfected cells. HAEC, A549 and DU145 cell types treated with CGEN 856S and Ang-(1-7) showed a significant FOXO1 nuclear translocation. A779 blocked this effect, at least partly. In both A549 and DU145 cells, the combination of the PI3 kinase inhibitors wortmannin and LY294002 with CGEN 856S or Ang-(1-7) showed a potentiated anti-proliferative effect. These data suggest that CGEN 856S and Ang-(1-7) as agonists of Mas receptor had similar effects, and thus represent a potential therapeutic target in cancer and cardiovascular pathologies.Estudos em biotecnologia baseados em uma plataforma computacional desenvolvida pela empresa Compugen, Tel Aviv Israel permitiram a descoberta de um potencial agonista do receptor Mas, o CGEN 856S, o qual produz vários efeitos semelhantes àqueles produzidos pela Ang-(1-7), incluindo efeitos anti-hipertensivos e cardioprotetores, como diminuição de isquemia, redução de fibrose renal e cardíaca e vasodilatação dependente de óxido nítrico (NO). Além disso, o CGEN 856S é capaz de atenuar o remodelamento cardíaco induzido por isoproterenol e lesão por infarto do miocárdio. Estudos utilizando fosfoproteômica mostraram que a Ang-(1-7) promove ativação e translocação nuclear do fator de transcrição FOXO1 em células de endotélio de aorta humana (HAEC). No entanto, ainda não é claro se o CGEN 856S é capaz de ativar as mesmas vias de sinalização intracelular anteriormente já demonstradas para Ang-(1-7). Este trabalho avaliou e comparou os efeitos do CGEN 856S e da Ang-(1-7) sobre a ativação das vias AKT/eNOS e AKT/FOXO1, utilizando diferentes modelos celulares. Células de ovário de hamster chinês (CHO) transfectadas com o receptor Mas (CHO-Mas) foram estimuladas com CGEN 856S e Ang-(1-7). Células CHO não transfectadas foram usadas como controle. O extrato proteico foi utilizado em Western Blot para detecção das proteínas AKT, AKT fosforilada, eNOS fosforilada, FOXO1 fosforilado, Mas e GAPDH. Células CHO-Mas e CHO foram expostas a ambos os peptídeos para medida da liberação de NO, através da técnica de incorporação de DAF-FM. Células HAEC, A549 e DU145 (as duas últimas, linhagens tumorais de câncer de pulmão humano e próstata humana, respectivamente) foram tratadas com CGEN 856S e Ang-(1-7) com ou sem tratamento prévio com A779, utilizadas para imunolocalização de FOXO1, analisadas por microscopia confocal e a intensidade de fluorescência nuclear foi quantificada. Células A549 e DU145 também foram utilizadas em teste de citotoxicidade, sendo tratadas com uma combinação dos inibidores de PI3K wortmannin ou LY294002 em diferentes concentrações e CGEN 856S ou Ang-(1-7). Os resultados mostraram uma diferença significativa no aumento da fosforilação da AKT, eNOS, bem como na desfosrorilação de FOXO1 apenas em células CHO-Mas tratadas com CGEN 856S e Ang-(1-7). Células CHO-Mas tratadas com ambos os peptídeos também promoveram um aumento significativo na liberação de NO comparado com células CHO-Mas não tratadas. Não foram observadas diferenças em células CHO não transfectadas. Células HAEC, A549 e DU145 tratadas com CGEN 856S e Ang-(1-7) promoveram translocação nuclear significativa de FOXO1. O A779 bloqueou este efeito, pelo menos, parcialmente. Tanto em células A549 quanto em DU145, a combinação dos inibidores de PI3K wortmannin e LY294002 com CGEN 856S e Ang-(1-7) mostrou um efeito anti-proliferativo potencializado. Estes dados sugerem que tanto o CGEN 856S quanto a Ang-(1-7), como agonistas do receptor Mas, possuem efeitos semelhantes e representam um potencial alvo terapêutico no câncer e em patologias cardiovasculares.
4
Lechner, Julia. "Urban CGE Modeling: An Introduction." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2011. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3247/1/sre%2Ddisc%2D2011_04.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Cities are usually confronted with a large variety of economic development choices. With growing
environmental concern as well as rising income and wealth inequalities, assessment of the impacts of
such choices is likely to gain in importance. Consequently, the demand for adequate assessment
tools will grow. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models analyze issues of resource allocation
and income distribution in market economies. They have become a widely accepted tool for policy
assessment over the past two decades but are currently still primarily a field for specialists. This is
particularly distinctive in the case of urban CGE models, which are the focus of this paper. (author's abstract)Series: SRE - Discussion Papers
5
Hubic, Amela. "A financial CGE model for Luxembourg." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209083.
Full textAbstract:
Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.
This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:
1.\
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
6
Bohlin, Lars. "Taxation of intermediate goods : a CGE analysis." Doctoral thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro universitet, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-11902.
Full textAbstract:
This dissertation is concerned with tax rates for the use of commodities in general, and energy in particular. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are used to analyze the normative question of whether the tax rate for intermediate use by firms should be the same as the tax rate for final consumption by households. To answer this question, a distinction needs to be made between fiscal taxes for the purpose of raising revenue for the government, and Pigovian taxes for the purpose of changing behaviour. Concerning fiscal taxes, firms should not pay taxes on their use of inputs if the tax rates in final consumption are at their optimal level. If the tax rate for households is above the optimal level, intermediate use in firms should be taxed in order to increase the price of other commodities and reduce the distortion of relative prices. Essay 1 ascertains what factors determine the optimal relation between the tax rate for final consumption by households and intermediate use by firms. Essay 2 analyses Swedish energy taxes from the perspective of reducing global emission of CO2. It is found that the welfare maximizing tax rates are equal for households and firms not participating in emission trading, while firms that participate in emission trading should have a zero tax rate. Essays 3 and 4 deal with methodological issues. Essay 3 derives a new method for estimation of symmetric input-output tables from supply and use tables. This method solves the problem of negative coefficients, makes it possible to use both the industry and commodity technology assumptions simultaneously and enables the commodity technology assumption to be used even when the number of commodities is larger than the number of industries. Essay 4 describes the model used in the first two essays. The price structure developed here makes it possible to take into account price differences between different purchasers other than differences in tax rates. This essay also makes a comparison between the Swedish implementation of this model and other Swedish CGE-models used to analyse climate policy and energy taxation.
7
Oñate, Sofía. "Valoración de empresas CGE método de múltiplos." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2015. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/134543.
Full textAbstract:
Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en FinanzasAutor, no autoriza el acceso a texto completo de su documento
El siguiente proyecto de título conducente al grado de Magister de Finanzas, tiene por finalidad realizar la valoración económica y financiera de la empresa Compañía General de Electricidad S.A., CGE, a través del método de “valoración por múltiplos”. Inicialmente este trabajo describirá en forma breve las técnicas de este método y el de “flujo de caja descontado”. Posteriormente se realizará un análisis que va de lo general a lo más detallado iniciando con la descripción de la empresa y la industria, para luego estimar la estructura de capital de la empresa, costo patrimonial y el análisis operacional del negocio y la industria. En una segunda etapa y ya con la información base calculada se procederá a proyectar los EERR y flujos de caja libre con el objetivo de realizar la valoración económica de la empresa, determinando así el precio de acción. Posteriormente, se aplicará el método de valoración por múltiplos mediante la utilización de los principales ratios.
8
Touzot, Audrey. "Migration et spécification des interneurones GABAergiques corticaux issus de la CGE au cours du développement chez la souris." Thesis, Nice, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014NICE4089/document.
Full textAbstract:
Chez les rongeurs, les interneurones (INs) corticaux sont issus de l’éminence ganglionnaire (EG) médiale (MGE) et caudale (CGE), expriment une combinaison de facteurs définis et migrent tangentiellement puis radialement pour atteindre leur position laminaire définitive. La diversité et la spécification des sous-types d’INs provenant de la MGE ont suscité de nombreuses études, en revanche les mécanismes moléculaires contrôlant la migration et la spécification des INs issus de la CGE demeurent toujours obscurs. Dans cette étude, les voies de migration de ces INs ont été examinées grâce à une lignée de souris rapportrices des interneurones issus de la CGE avant d’analyser le rôle de deux facteurs de transcription, COUP-TFI et COUP-TFII, hautement exprimés dans la CGE. Deux voies de migration non précédemment caractérisées ont alors été identifiées : une voie dorsale (CLMS) où les INs migrent vers l’EG latérale (LGE) et une voie ventrale (CMMS) où les INs migrent vers la MGE. Le CLMS et le CMMS ont donc été analysés, ainsi que la voie de migration caudale (CMS), à différents stades de développement et l’expression spécifique de certains gènes a pu être identifiée. En inactivant conditionnellement COUP-TFI et/ou COUP-TFII dans les INs, les voies de migration sont altérées ainsi que l’expression des marqueurs moléculaires. Comme probable conséquence, les souris mutantes adultes montrent une distribution altérée des sous-populations d’INs en particulier de celles issues de la CGE. Mon étude a donc permis d’identifier et de caractériser deux nouvelles voies de migration pour les INs provenant de la CGE et a montré que COUP-TFs contribuent à leur modulationIn rodents, cortical interneurons (INs) originate from the medial (MGE) and caudal ganglionic eminence (CGE) according to precise temporal schedules, express a defined combination of factors, and reach their final laminar position through tangential and radial cell migration. The diversity and fate-specification of MGE-derived interneuron subtypes are well characterized however the molecular mechanisms controlling the migration and specification of CGE-derived INs are still vague. In this study, I have first investigated the migratory paths of cortical INs using a reporter line specific to the CGE, and then I have assessed the involvement of COUP-TFI and COUP-TFII, which are highly expressed in the embryonic CGE during development, in these paths. My data unravelled two major previously non-characterized migratory streams from the subpallium to the pallium: a dorsal stream (CLMS) in which CGE-derived cells migrate to the lateral GE (LGE), and a ventral one (CMMS) in which CGE-derived cells migrate to the MGE. I have characterized both streams and the already well-described caudal stream (CMS) during different stages of development and identified a series of genes expressed in the migrating cells. By inactivating COUP-TFI and/or COUP-TFII in the developing INs, these streams together with their molecular marker expression are perturbed. As a consequence, adult mutant mice have an altered distribution of interneuron subpopulations, particularly the ones derived from the CGE. Taken together, my study identified and characterized two novel CGE-derived interneuron migratory routes to the cortex and showed that COUP-TFs contribute in modulating these paths
9
Vaittinen, Risto. "Trade policies and integration evaluations with CGE-models /." Helsinki : Helsinki School of Economics, 2004. http://helecon3.hkkk.fi/pdf/diss/a235.pdf.
Full text
10
Azdan, M. Donny. "Water policy reform in Jakarta, Indonesia : a CGE analysis /." The Ohio State University, 2001. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1373993667.
Full text
11
Núñez, Díaz Pablo. "Valoración de empresa CGE S.A. mediante método de múltiplos." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2015. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/134539.
Full textAbstract:
Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en FinanzasEl presente estudio se enfoca en la búsqueda del valor justo del Grupo CGE utilizando empresas comparables a través del método de valorización por múltiplos. A partir de este método se pretende cuantificar el valor de los activos operacionales de la compañía mediante el uso de ratios financieros de empresas reconocidas del sector energético a nivel mundial, así obtener un aproximado del valor de la empresa CGE como grupo se define como uno de los conglomerados energéticos más importantes del país, concentrando su actividad en el sector eléctrico y gasífero, desde Arica a Puerto Williams en Chile, en 5 importantes provincias en Argentina y en 26 departamentos en Colombia, a través de la distribución de gas licuado. A través de sus filiales, participa en los mercados de transmisión y distribución de energía eléctrica; de almacenamiento, transporte y distribución de gas; y en los servicios y productos asociados a todas esas actividades. En cuanto a los productos que maneja tanto en el sector eléctrico y gasífero son de baja diferenciación, el primero considerado prácticamente como un monopolio natural mientras que el sector gasífero presenta una alta competencia enfocada al costo y al servicio post venta dado el bajo nivel de diferenciación que prestan sus productos (GNL y GLP). En cuanto a la composición de los ingresos a Septiembre 2014 se componen de un 46% por sector eléctrico y 44% atribuibles al sector gasífero, el restante corresponde a prestación de servicios mayoritariamente relacionados al sector eléctrico. Se definieron las empresas comparables a través de una revisión de las empresas más importantes a nivel mundial en el sector energético para posteriormente definir los ratios a utilizar, escogiéndose los más significativos acorde a la naturaleza del negocio y a través de los comparables se obtiene un proxy del Valor Justo de la compañía. al 30 de Septiembre 2014.
12
Pingel, Karl. "Valoración de empresas CGE : método de flujo de caja." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2015. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/134628.
Full textAbstract:
Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en FinanzasAutor no autoriza acceso a texto completo de su documento.
El siguiente proyecto de título conducente al grado de Magister de Finanzas, tiene por finalidad realizar la valoración económica y financiera de la empresa Compañía General de Electricidad S.A., CGE, a través de los métodos de “flujo de caja descontado” y “valoración por múltiplos”. Inicialmente este trabajo describirá en forma breve las técnicas de ambos métodos. Posteriormente se realizará un análisis que va de lo general a lo más detallado iniciando con la descripción de la empresa y la industria, para luego estimar la estructura de capital de la empresa, costo patrimonial y el análisis operacional del negocio y la industria. En una segunda etapa y ya con la información base calculada se procederá a proyectar los EERR y flujos de caja libre con el objetivo de realizar la valoración económica de la empresa, determinando así el precio de acción. Posteriormente, se aplicará el método de valoración por múltiplos mediante la utilización de los principales ratios
13
Acharya, Sanjaya. "Pro-poor growth and liberalisation CGE policy modelling for Nepal /." Rotterdam : Rotterdam : Erasmus Universiteit ; Erasmus University [Host], 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/8139.
Full text
14
Punt, Cecilia. "Modelling multi-product industries in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/79959.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (PhD (Agric))--Stellenbosch University, 2013.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is common practice in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models that the output composition of multi-product industries remains constant despite changes in relative prices of products. The results of any scenario will show that products produced by a single industry will still be produced in the same ratio to each other as reflected by the base data. The objective of the study was to develop a CGE model for South Africa in which this assumption of fixed composition of output can be selectively relaxed. In order to allow industries to adjust their output composition in response to changes in relative prices of products a Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) function and the related first order condition were incorporated into an existing CGE model. This alternative specification of an output transformation function in the model enables the modeller to allow selected multi-product industries to increase production of products that show greater price increases relative to other products. The first order condition of the CET function determines the optimal combination of products for each industry. With the inclusion of the CET function there is a trade-off between theoretical rigour of the model and realism of the results, therefore an assumption of input-output separability was introduced as a way of recognising that the inclusion of a CET function violates the assumption that prices in the same row of a social accounting matrix (SAM) are equivalent. The model was calibrated with a SAM for South Africa for 2007 that was developed for purposes of this study. Set controls were included in the model to generalise the model in order that it can be calibrated with data from other countries as well. The SAM for South Africa contains provincial level information in the accounts for agriculture, labour and households. The agricultural industries are defined by geographical area, hence these industries are particularly good examples of multi-product industries that respond to relative price changes when determining production levels of individual products. The adjusted CGE model was used to analyse four scenarios focusing on selected issues mentioned in the National Development Plan for South Africa released by the National Planning Commission in 2011. The scenarios relate to increases in fruit exports as a result of global positioning, technical efficiency improvements for the agricultural sector through continued research and development, factor productivity growth in government and selected services sectors resulting from fighting corruption and curbing strikes, and augmenting the supply of skilled labour through an improvement in the quality of education. The results of the adjusted model show the desired effect: producers produce relatively more of the products for which they can get a relatively higher price and vice versa. This holds true regardless of whether the level of industry output increases or decreases. The impact of the model adjustment and the effects of changes in the levels of elasticities and choice of variables to close the model were analysed as part of the sensitivity analyses. The impact of changes in the functional form, elasticities and model closures on results, are different for each scenario.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is erkende praktyk in berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodelle dat die verhoudings waarin produkte tot mekaar geproduseer word deur multi-produk industrieë konstant gehou word, ongeag veranderings in relatiewe pryse van produkte. Die resultate van enige senario sal dus aandui dat die produkte wat deur 'n enkele industrie geproduseer word steeds in dieselfde verhouding tot mekaar geproduseer sal word, soos weerspieël in die basis data. Die doel van die studie was om 'n berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel vir Suid-Afrika te ontwikkel wat die aanname dat die samestelling van elke industrie se uitset onveranderbaar is, selektief kan verslap. Om toe te laat dat industrieë die samestelling van uitset kan aanpas namate die relatiewe pryse van produkte verander, is 'n Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie en die gepaardgaande eerste orde voorwaarde in 'n bestaande berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel ingesluit. Die eerste orde voorwaarde bepaal die optimale verhoudings waarin produkte geproduseer moet word. Met die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word teoretiese korrektheid van die model ingeboet in ruil vir meer realistiese resultate, dus is die aanname van inset-uitset onafhanklikheid gemaak en daardeur word ook erken dat as gevolg van die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word daar nie meer voldoen aan die aanname data alle pryse in dieselfde ry van die sosiale rekeninge matriks (SRM) aan mekaar gelyk is nie. Die model is gekalibreer met 'n SRM vir Suid-Afrika vir 2007 wat vir doeleindes van die studie ontwikkel is. Deur die insluiting van kontroles vir versamelings is die model veralgemeen sodat die model ook met data van ander lande gekalibreer kan word. Die SRM vir Suid-Afrika se rekeninge vir landbou, arbeid en huishoudings bevat inligting op provinsiale vlak. Die landbou industrieë is volgens geografiese gebiede afgebaken en is dus besonder goeie voorbeelde van multi-produk industrieë wat reageer op relatiewe prys veranderings wanneer die produksievlakke van afsonderlike produkte bepaal word. Die aangepaste algemene ewewigsmodel is gebruik om vier senarios te ondersoek wat fokus op geselekteerde onderwerpe vervat in die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan wat deur die Nasionale Beplanningskommissie van Suid Afrika in 2011 vrygestel is. Die senarios hou verband met 'n styging in vrugte uitvoere as gevolg van globale posisionering, tegniese produktiwiteitsverhogings vir die landbousektor deur volgehoue navorsing en ontwikkeling, verhoging in die produktiwiteit van produksiefaktore van die regering en geselekteerde dienste sektore deur die aanspreek van korrupsie en vermindering in stakings, en die toename in geskoolde arbeid deur 'n verbetering in die kwaliteit van onderwys. Resultate van die aangepaste model toon die gewenste uitwerking: produsente produseer relatief meer van die produkte waarvoor hulle 'n relatiewe hoër prys kan kry, en omgekeerd. Dit geld ongeag of daar 'n verhoging of 'n verlaging in die vlak van die industrie se uitset is. Die impak van die modelaanpassing, die effek van veranderings in die vlakke van elastisiteite en die keuse van veranderlikes om die model te sluit, is geanaliseer as deel van die sensitiwiteitsanalises. Die impak van veranderings in die funksionele vorm, elastisiteite en modelsluiting op resultate, is verskillend vir elke senario.
15
Lima, Cicero Zanetti de. "Impacts of low carbon agriculture in Brazil: a CGE application." Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 2017. http://www.locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/19866.
Full textAbstract:
Submitted by Marco Antônio de Ramos Chagas (mchagas@ufv.br) on 2018-05-29T12:21:20Z
No. of bitstreams: 1
texto completo.pdf: 3839421 bytes, checksum: ee73ea3cd4e758f2116138315029efe9 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-29T12:21:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 3839421 bytes, checksum: ee73ea3cd4e758f2116138315029efe9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-22
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
Além da relevância econômica, o setor agrícola fez com que o Brasil assumisse um papel ativo na discussão internacional das mudanças climáticas. O setor de agri- cultura, floresta e outros usos da terra (AFOLU) é a principal fonte de emissão de gases de efeito estufa no país, padrão peculiar entre os países em desenvolvimento. Durante a Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre as Mudanças Climáticas de 2009 (COP-15) o país assumiu o compromisso voluntário de reduzir suas emissões em 37 até 2025 e em 43% até 2030 em relação aos níveis de 2005. O setor agropecuario é responsável por contribuir com 22,5% do compromisso voluntario. Afim de atin- gir essa meta, foi criado em 2009 o Plano Setorial de Mitigação e de Adaptação as Mudanças Climáticas para a Consolidação de uma Economia de Baixa Emissão de Carbono na Agricultura (Plano ABC). O Plano ABC faz parte da Política Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas (PNMC). Entre as diversas ações do Plano ABC, estão a re- cuperação de 15 milhões de hectares (Mha) de pastagens degradadas e aumentar em 4 Mha as areas de integração lavoura-pecuaria (iLP) e / ou lavoura-pecuaria-floresta (iLPF). O objetivo da tese é avaliar os impactos econômicos e de mudança no uso da terra decorrentes dessas duas ações presentes no Plano ABC. Para tal, foi con- struído um modelo de equilíbrio geral computavel (EGC) (BREA versão 1.0) com representação detalhada de seis grandes regiões brasileiras divididas por relevância econômica e fronteira agrícola: Sul, Sudeste, Norte (bioma Amazônia), Centro-Oeste (sem o bioma Amazônia), Nordeste, e Nordeste Cerrado (Estados do Maranhão, To- cantins, Piauí e Bahia) que é considerada a nova fronteira agrícola brasileira. O modelo representa diversos usos da terra com desagregação setorial agropecuaria, e é o primeiro modelo de EGC a explicitamente representar a implementação das tecnologias do Plano ABC. Sob diferentes cenários simulados, os resultados indicam que a maior oferta de pastagens recuperadas e com alta produtividade, somadas as tecnologias iLP e iLPF, promovem o efeito poupador de terra como resultado agre- gado. Ha redução na pressão que a atividade de pecuária promove sobre as áreas naturais e florestas. Ao mesmo tempo, há queda das áreas destinadas às atividades de grãos, principalmente soja e milho, e aumento da area de florestas plantadas. Entretanto, os resultados regionais mostram que as regiões de fronteira agrícola respondem diferentemente as ações do Plano ABC. Nas regiões Centro-Oeste e Norte as pastagens crescem mais do que as areas recuperadas, sendo que parte das áreas de culturas são convertidas para pasto de boa qualidade. Nas regiões Sudeste e Sul essas pastagens aumentam menos do que a area de pastagens recuperadas, o que significa que parte das pastagens boas são convertidas em areas de culturas ou em florestas e áreas de vegetação secundária. Em termos macroeconômicos, percebe-se ganhos de bem-estar para as regiões brasileiras, com exceção das regiões do Nordeste e Nordeste Cerrado. Ademais, a variação do PIB regional indica queda expressiva nessas regiões. Esses resultados sugerem que o Plano ABC aumenta as disparidades regionais no Brasil evidenciando que o desenho de políticas públicas precisa levar em conta tais diferenças. A pesquisa sugere mecanismos modernos de compensação de perdas reestruturando as cadeias de valor regionais, para que no longo prazo aumente a capacidade de produção e absorção de tecnologias. Em termos de custo econômico, o modelo indica que para o atingimento das metas do Plano ABC refer- entes a recuperação de pastagens e sistemas integrados seriam necessários cerca de R$ 39 bilhões (valores nominais de 2009), valor inferior aos valores projetados no lançamento do Plano ABC (cerca de R$ 37 bilhões para recupeção de pastagens e R$ 57 bilhões para iLP e iLPF). O atual nível de adoção de recursos do Programa ABC é bem inferior ao montante necessario projetado no presente estudo. Até o fi- nal do ano safra 2015/2016 os desembolsos haviam alcançado quase R$ 13,8 bilhões, incluindo os gastos não apenas com recuperação de pastagens e iLPF, mas também com as demais linhas do programa, como o plantio direto e o tratamento de dejetos de animais. Essa constatação sugere que, a continuar o ritmo atual observado de adoção do crédito do Programa ABC, as metas do Plano ABC no ambito da Política Nacional de Mudança do Clima não serão atingidas.
Brazil is considered one of the major players in World agriculture. Besides the economic relevance of agriculture and livestock productions in Brazil, the country has an active role in the international discussion about climate change. The agricul- ture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is a peculiar pattern among developing countries. At COP-15 2009, Brazil made a voluntary commitment to reduce emissions by 37% until 2025 and by 43% until 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The agricultural and livestock sectors are responsible to contribute With 22.5% of this total. The Brazil- ian Government released in the same year the Low Carbon Agriculture Plan (ABC Plan) as part of National Policy for Climate Change (PNMC) to achieve the GHG emissions reduction in the AFOLU sector. The ABC Plan has several actions, e.g., recover 15 million hectares (Mha) of degraded pasture, and increase by 4 Mha the integrated systems (crop-livestock integration and/or crop-livestock-forestry inte- gration). The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the economic impacts and the land-use changes resulting from these actions present in the ABC Plan, such as pasture recovery (PR) and integrated systems (IS). I have built a new computable general equilibrium model (CGE) (BREA version 1.0) With detailed representation of six regions in Brazil representing the economic relevance and agricultural frontier. The regions are: South, Southeast, North (Amazon biome), Center-West (Without Amazon biome), Northeast, and Northeast Cerrado (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia States) Which is considered the neW agricultural frontier in Brazil. The model represents several land uses, agricultural sectors, and it is the first CGE model to explicitly represent these technologies. Under different simulated scenarios, the outcomes indicate that the higher supply of recovered areas With high productivity pastures, combined With the integrated systems, promotes the land sparing effect. There is a reduction in the pressure to clear natural and forest areas made by live- stock sector. Also, there is a decrease in the cropland use and an increase in the area of planted forest. However, regional results show that regions in the agricultural frontier respond differently to the ABC Plan. In the Center-West and North regions the pasture area increases more than recovered areas. At the same time, the crop land area is converted to high quality pasture. In the South and Southeast regions the pasture area increases less than the recovered areas. It means that part of this area is converted in cropland, forest or secondary vegetation. At macroeconomic level, there are welfare gains in all regions, except in the Northeast and Northeast Cerrado regions. Also, regional GDP changes indicate significant losses in these regions. Modern compensation mechanisms should be develop to avoid these losses increasing the production capacity and the technology absorption in these regions. Considering the economic costs of PR and IS the model projects R$ 39 billion (2009 values). This value is significantly lower compared to those projected in the origi- nal text of the ABC Plan (around R$ 37 billion for PR and R$ 57 billion for IS). The actual adoption level of resources present in the ABC Program is also lower compared to the value projected by the model. By the end of 2015/2016 crop-year the volume of credit taken by farmers reached R$ 13.8 billion, including all actions present in the ABC Plan and not only PR and IS. It suggests that if the adoption of the ABC credit continue in a low rate the goals of the ABC Plan Will not be met.
Lattes não encontrado.
16
Bobadilla, Olivares Paulo. "Valoración de empresa CGE S.A. : mediante flujo de caja descontado." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2015. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/134544.
Full textAbstract:
Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en FinanzasAutor, no envía autorización para acceso a texto completo de su documento
El presente estudio se enfoca en la búsqueda del valor justo del Grupo CGE el método de flujos de caja descontados (FCD) A partir de este método se pretende cuantificar el valor de los activos operacionales de la compañía trayendo a valor presente los flujos que estos generan en un horizonte determinado de proyección para a través de ellos obtener un aproximado del valor de la empresa CGE como grupo se define como uno de los conglomerados energéticos más importantes del país, concentrando su actividad en el sector eléctrico y gasífero, desde Arica a Puerto Williams en Chile, en 5 importantes provincias en Argentina y en 26 departamentos en Colombia, a través de la distribución de gas licuado. A través de sus filiales, participa en los mercados de transmisión y distribución de energía eléctrica; de almacenamiento, transporte y distribución de gas; y en los servicios y productos asociados a todas esas actividades. En cuanto a los productos que maneja tanto en el sector eléctrico y gasífero son de baja diferenciación, el primero considerado prácticamente como un monopolio natural mientras que el sector gasífero presenta una alta competencia enfocada al costo y al servicio post venta dado el bajo nivel de diferenciación que prestan sus productos (GNL y GLP). En cuanto a la composición de los ingresos a Septiembre 2014 se componen de un 46% por sector eléctrico y 44% atribuibles al sector gasífero, el restante corresponde a prestación de servicios mayoritariamente relacionados al sector eléctrico. Una vez determinada la deuda financiera y el patrimonio económico de la empresa y para efectos de valorar la compañía, se supondrá como estructura de capital objetivo el promedio del ratio deuda a patrimonio entre los años 2010 y Septiembre del 2014 el cual es de 1.43 veces. Para la determinación del costo de capital se procede empleando instrumental tradicional. Posteriormente, se calcula el beta de la deuda, beta patrimonial con deuda y sin deuda empleando Rubinstein en los casos en que se requiere y ajustando a la estructura de capital objetivo. Respecto al crecimiento de la empresa e industria se han analizado tanto los crecimientos en términos monetarios reales así como el balance de unidades físicas, GWH para electricidad mientras que para GLP corresponden a Miles de Toneladas y a GNL a millones de m3. En relación a los costos operacionales, estos se mantienen en proporción a los ingresos por lo cual se definió una relación que se mantuvo en las proyecciones realizadas. Para finalizar y tomando como base el EERR Proyectado y efectuando los ajustes correspondientes, se llega a definir los flujos de caja libre que permitirán determinar el valor económico de la empresa y a partir de este el valor de la compañía. A su vez una vez definidos los comparables elegibles así como los ratios, significativos de acorde a la naturaleza del negocio, y los comparables se obtiene un proxy del Valor Justo de la compañía. A través de los dos métodos utilizados, se obtuvieron precios cercanos al del 30 de Septiembre 2014, a pesar de lo anterior, se concluye que existen limitantes a la valorización realizada.
17
Baas, Timo. "Unter welchen Bedingungen ist ein Beitritt zu einer Währungsunion optimal? : Eine Analyse stabilitätspolitischer Konsequenzen, statischer Effekte und wachstumstheoretischer Implikationen einer Osterweiterung der Europäischen Währungsunion." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2010. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2010/4344/.
Full textAbstract:
Die Europäische Währungsunion (EWU) umfasst heute 16 Staaten mit insgesamt 321 Millionen Einwohnern, sie ist mit einem Bruttoinlandsprodukt von 22,9 Billionen Euro einer der größten Wirtschaftsräume der Erde. In den nächsten Jahren wird die EWU durch die Aufnahme der 2004 und 2007 beigetretenen neuen EU-Länder weiter wachsen. Da der Beitritt von der Erfüllung der Kriterien von Maastricht abhängt, erfolgt die Erweiterung im Gegensatz zur 5. Erweiterungsrunde der EU nicht als Block, sondern sequentiell. Nach den Beitritten von Slowenien am 1.1.2007 und der Slowakei zum 1.1.2009 steht der Beitritt eines ersten großen Landes in den nächsten Jahren bevor. Daher stößt die Frage der Effekte eines solchen Beitritts seit geraumer Zeit auf breites Interesse in der ökonomischen Literatur.
Das Forschungsziel der Dissertation ist es, die theoretischen Wirkungsmechanismen eines Beitritts der neuen Mitgliedsländer zur Europäischen Währungsunion abzubilden. Hierzu werden mögliche stabilitätspolitische Konsequenzen sowie die Auswirkungen eines Beitritts auf die geografische Wirtschaftsstruktur und das Wachstum dieser Länder in theoretischen Modellen abgeleitet. Die direkten Effekte des Beitritts werden in einem angewandt-theoretischen Modell zudem quantifiziert.
Insgesamt wird der Beitritt aus drei verschiedenen Perspektiven analysiert: Erstens werden die Konsequenzen der Währungsunion für die Stabilitätspolitik der neuen Mitgliedsländer im Rahmen eines neukeynesianischen Modells betrachtet. Zweitens werden die mit der Transaktionskostensenkung verbundenen Gewinne in einem angewandten Gleichgewichtsmodell quantifiziert. Drittens werden die wachstumstheoretischen Wirkungen der Finanzmarktintegration in einem dynamischen Gleichgewichtsmodell untersucht. Da die drei Aspekte der makroökonomischen Stabilität, der Transaktionskostensenkung und der dynamischen Wirkungen der Finanzmarktintegration weitgehend unabhängig voneinander auftreten, ist die Verwendung verschiedener Modelle mit geringen Kosten verbunden.
In der Gesamtbeurteilung des EWU-Beitritts der neuen EU-Länder kommt diese Arbeit zu einer anderen Einschätzung als bisherige Studien. Die in Teil eins ermittelten stabilitätspolitischen Konsequenzen sind entweder neutral oder implizieren bei Beitritt zur Währungsunion eine größere Stabilität. Die in Teil zwei und drei ermittelten statischen und dynamischen Gewinne eines Beitritts sind zudem erheblich, so dass ein schneller Beitritt zur Währungsunion für die neuen EU-Mitgliedsländer vorteilhaft ist. Unter Berücksichtigung der Ziele der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (EWWU) müssen hierzu jedoch zwei Bedingungen erfüllt sein. Einerseits sind hinreichend entwickelte Finanzmärkte notwendig, um das Ziel einer Konvergenz der neuen und alten EU-Mitgliedsländer zu erreichen. Andererseits wird der Gesamtraum von einer stärkeren Finanzmarktintegration und einer Senkung der Transaktionskosten profitieren, jedoch durch die Übertragung von Schocks der neuen Mitgliedsländer instabiler. Daher kann der Beitritt der neuen Mitgliedsländer zur EWU für den Gesamtraum negativ sein. Diese Kosten sind nur dann zu rechtfertigen, falls über die schnellere Entwicklung der neuen Mitgliedsstaaten eine höhere Stabilität des Währungsraumes erzielt wird. Das neukeynesianische Wachstumsmodell gibt Hinweise, dass eine solche Entwicklung eintreten könnte.The European Monetary Union consists of 16 member states, is inhabited by 321 million people and has a joint GDP of 22.9 trillion Euros. It is one of the largest economic areas in the world. In the next years the Eurozone will growth further, eight remaining new EU member states will join after their fulfillment of the Maastricht criteria. This makes accession rather sequential, Slovenia joined in 2007, Slovakia in 2009 and Estonia is about to join the Eurozone in 2010. However, these rules open the opportunity for a new EU-member state to postpone membership of EMU in violating the Maastricht criteria like Sweden. The contribution of my Ph.D. thesis is to derive channels of the impact of an EMU accession on the macro-economy. To this aim, I analyze the effects of accession on stability, growth and the geographical structure within theoretical models. The static effects of accession are quantified within a computable equilibrium model. In the conclusions I answer the question whether there are economic reasons for a new member state to avoid EMU membership. The thesis is organized in three parts reflecting three perspectives of accession. Within the first main chapter, the effects of accession on stability are analyzed within a dynamic general equilibrium framework (DSGE). After a short discussion of the effects of monetary arrangements on the stability of an economy, I analyze the well-known arguments of the theory of optimum currency areas. Thereafter the model is used to analyze the transmission of shocks within the monetary union. The second main chapter of the thesis is related to static effects of accession. I show that in five new member states gains from accession outpace costs. Nevertheless, the gain from accession varies among accession countries and economic activities. Overall, small open economies tend to benefit to a greater extent than medium-size, more closed economies. In the third main chapter of the thesis a multiregional growth model is developed. In this model further integration leads to more efficient financial markets which foster growth. Nevertheless, like in all new economic geography (NEG) models, there could be the outcome of a catastrophic agglomeration. Capital could move from poor accession countries to rich western Eurozone countries. To prevent such a catastrophic agglomeration, financial markets should show a minimum degree of development. The conclusion of the thesis supports the accession of new member states to the Eurozone. I argue that the consequences of EMU accession will be either neutral or positive for the accession countries. Since these countries tend to be more instable, they could gain from an equalization of shocks within the Eurozone. The static effects outpace the costs of accession. Within the last years we saw huge progress in the integration of new EU-member states into the international financial system. A catastrophic agglomeration should therefore be unlikely. However, market capitalization remains low and bank lending is less profitable than in western EU-countries so that a risk remains which could justify a postponement of accession.
18
Hasudungan, Herbert Wibert Victor. "The impact of implementing carbon tax and feed-in tariff : a CGE analysis of the Indonesian case." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2016. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/80c65877-1fca-460a-a58e-caabdc883683.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis focuses on the two main works that related in assessing the implications of (i) fiscal expansion (or contraction) and (ii) implementing a carbon tax on carbon-based fuels as well as the feed-in tariffs (subsidies to clean energy production) on Indonesia’s economy, within the context of static computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. In the first study, we investigate the impacts of increasing the public consumptions on Indonesia’s main macroeconomic indicators and to their consequences by examining how different institutions and sectors in the economy are affected. Three scenarios are carried out under different financing options to budgeting neutral the additional public spending. The results suggest that the increase of government expenditure on goods under the adjusted government saving generates the highest improvement on Indonesia’s GDP but results in a rise of budget deficit. In contrast, under the budget-neutral scheme of either reducing the subsidy rates across activities or increasing the output tax rates would result in less improvement to the Indonesia’s GDP. This is because a subsidy cut (or higher output tax) immediately escalates the production costs and, thus, increases the prices of final goods purchased by the households. These changes result in a fall of their real consumption that eventually leads to a drop in aggregate demand. However, compared to the scenario of subsidy cut, a higher output tax has the most adverse effects on national income. The industry’s production costs are more pressurized by a higher output tax. which in turn, creates deindustrialization, lower employment, and thus reduces the national income and output. In the second study, we investigate the two key frameworks to reduce Indonesia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: (i) implementing a carbon tax on fossil fuels; and (ii) promoting clean (renewable) energy production through the feed-in tariff (subsidy) scheme. In the carbon tax implementation, we assume that the government levies a tax of Rp. 100,000/ton CO2e with three possible revenue-recycling scenarios. In a first scenario, we allow the carbon tax to be recycled through adjustment of the labour (income) tax rate. In a second scenario, we allow the government to increase their spending on goods proportionally to compensate the revenue raised from a carbon tax. And finally, in the third scenario, we assume that the additional revenue from carbon tax is kept to run a budget surplus (government saving adjusts). Whilst, in the feed-in tariff (FIT) scenario, we assume that the government sets a 13.14% subsidy rate to renewable generations (hydro and geothermal generation) where the support payments are distributed equally among electricity consumers through a higher electricity tax rate. Overall, the results suggested that the carbon tax, in the short run, reduces the national emissions but raises costs to the economy, resulting a fall in GDP. In terms of income distribution, the carbon tax tends to be progressive in both (first and second) scenarios of revenue-recycling. However, when there is no compensating (recycling) mechanism (third scenario), the carbon tax tends to be regressive - the poorer households carry a higher share of the carbon tax burden. On the other hand, in case of the FIT scheme (15% subsidy to renewable generation), the impacts are negligible on national income and emissions. This is because the initial renewable shares in the electricity mix are small (a 11% share from hydro generation and a 5% share from geothermal generation); and these technology outputs are only utilized in the electricity industry. Therefore, we argue that the current Indonesia’s FIT regulation – about 13.14% subsidy rate for renewable generation technologies – is ineffective to reduce the national emissions.
19
Hamitou, Okba. "Efficient preconditioning method for the CARP-CG iterative solver for the solution of the frequency-domain visco-elastic wave equation." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016GREAM087/document.
Full textAbstract:
La résolution de l'équation des ondes acoustiques et élastiques en 3D dans le domaine fréquentiel représente un enjeu majeur dans le cadre de l'inversion des formes d'ondes pour l'imagerie haute résolution de cibles crustales (Virieux, 2009). Après discrétisation, ce problème revient à résoudre un système linéaire à valeurs complexes, creux, de grande taille non défini et mal conditionné. Les méthodes d'inversion sismique requièrent la solution de ce problème pour l'évaluation du problème direct pour un grand nombre de sources (plusieurs milliers voir dizaines de milliers). Dans l'approximation acoustique, les méthodes directes sont privilégiées. Cependant, le coût mémoire de ces méthodes les rendent aujourd'hui inutilisables pour résoudre les problèmes élastiques 3D. En raison de leur plus faible coût mémoire, les méthodes itératives pour les équations en fréquence peuvent être considérées pour l'élastodynamique. Cependant, une convergence rapide passe par des préconditionneurs adaptés pour les solveurs itératifs. Par ailleurs, les stratégies pour résoudre des systèmes linéaires avec des seconds membres multiples ne sont pas aussi efficaces que pour les méthodes directes. La modélisation dans le domaine temporelle quant à elle présente une importante complexité en coût de calcul et cette complexité croît linéairement avec le nombre de sources.Dans cette thèse, l'approche utilisant un solveur itératif est considérée. Le solveur itératif CARP-CG introduit par Gordon (2010) est considéré. Cette méthode est basée sur la méthode de Kaczmarz qui transforme un système linéaire mal conditionné en un système hermitien, positif et qui peut être résolu en utilisant les méthodes du type gradient conjugué (CG). Dans des configurations de forts contrastes et hétérogénéités, ce solveur s'est révélé être extrêmement robuste alors que les méthodes itératives standards basées sur les sous-espaces de Krylov telles que GMRES et BiCGSTAB nécessitent l'utilisation d'un préconditionneur pour converger (Li, 2015). Malgré les bonnes propriétés de la méthode CARP-CG, le nombre d'itérations nécessaires pour atteindre une précision suffisante reste néanmoins élevé. Je présente alors une stratégie de préconditionnement adaptée au problème de propagation des ondes et à la méthode CARP-CG. Ce préconditionneur est un inverse creux et approché d'un opérateur de propagation des ondes fortement amorti. Le calcul du préconditionneur est réalisé grâce un algorithme massivement parallèle pour les architectures à mémoire distribuée.La méthode développée est appliquée à des cas d'étude réalistes. Les applications sont faites sur des modèles synthétiques 2D dans l'approximation visco-acoustique pour des fréquences allant jusqu'à 40 Hz puis dans l'approximation élastique pour des fréquences allant jusqu'à 20 Hz. Ces études montrent l'efficacité de la méthode CARP-CG munie de la stratégie de préconditionnement. Le nombre d'itérations est fortement réduit (jusqu'à un facteur 9) permettant d'améliorer considérablement la complexité de la méthode CARP-CG. Des gains en temps de calcul allant jusqu'à un facteur 3.5 sont ainsi obtenus. La méthode est ensuite appliquée à un cas 3D synthétique et réaliste dans l'approximation visco-élastique pour des fréquences allant de 1.25 Hz à 7.5 Hz. Des résultats encourageants sont obtenus. Munie du préconditioneur, la méthode CARP-CG permet de résoudre ces systèmes linéaires deux fois plus rapidement.La stratégie de préconditionnement implique la nécessité de plus grandes ressources en mémoire pour le solveur itératif; cependant, elles ne constituent pas une limitation pour la méthode et restent très négligeables devant celles requises par les solveurs directs. La principale limitation réside dans le temps de calcul qui demeure assez significatif. Cependant, cette méthode constitue un solveur compétitif comparé aux autres solveurs en temps et direct utilisés aujourd'hui dans le cadre de l'inversion des formes d'ondesA robust and efficient wave modeling method is the cornerstone of high resolution seismic inversion methods such as the frequency-domain Full Waveform Inversion (Virieux, 2009). After discretization, frequency-domain wave modeling amounts to the solution of large (up to several billion of unknowns for realistic case studies), sparse, indefinite and ill-conditioned linear systems. Furthermore, seismic inversion methods require the solution of this problem for numerous sources (from several thousands up to tens of thousands). In the acoustic approximation, 3D real case studies can be handled efficiently using direct solvers. However because of their tremendous intrinsic memory requirements, they are not yet adapted to the solution of the 3D elastodynamics equations. Iterative solvers provide an alternative to direct solvers. However, they require a preconditioning strategy to ensure convergence for the frequency-domain wave equation. Besides, multiple right-hand sides linear systems are not treated as efficiently as direct solvers do.In this thesis, we are interested in the use of a robust iterative solver adapted to the solution of these systems called CARP-CG (Gordon, 2010). The CARP-CG method has shown robust convergence properties for 2D and 3D elastic problems in highly heterogeneous media compared to standard Krylov methods such as GMRES or Bi-CGSTAB which require the use of a preconditioner to ensure convergence (Li, 2015). Despite the good convergence properties of CARP-CG, the latter still requires a large number of iterations to reach sufficient accuracy. I introduce an efficient preconditioning strategy adapted to the CARP-CG method and the frequency-domain wave problem. This preconditioner is computed as a sparse approximate inverse of a strongly damped wave propagation operator. The computation of the preconditioner is performed in a massively parallel algorithm for distributed memory architectures.The efficiency of the preconditioner is evaluated on several case studies. First, applications are performed on realistic synthetic models in the 2D visco-acoustic approximation (up to $40$ Hz) and the 2D visco-elastic approximation (up to $20$ Hz). These studies show that the CARP-CG method together with the preconditioning strategy is robust and efficient. The number of iterations is significantly reduced (up to a factor $9$) enabling a speedup in the computation time by a factor up to $3.5$. Second, this method is investigated in the 3D elastic approximation on a realistic synthetic case study on the range of frequencies 1.25 to 7.5 Hz. Very encouraging results are obtained with a significant reduction in the number of iterations. A slow increase of the number of iterations with respect to the frequency is noted.This preconditioning strategy adapted to the CARP-CG method implies larger memory requirements. However, this extra memory cost remains one order lower compared to direct solver memory requirement, and should be affordable on standard HPC facilities. The main bottleneck preventing from the possible use of this iterative solver for 3D elastic FWI remains the computation time for the wave equation solves
20
Johnsson, Richard. "Transport Tax Policy Simulations and Satellite Accounting within a CGE Framework." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala : Univ., Department of Economics, 2003. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/fy043/2003504674.html.
Full text
21
Keast, Sarah-Jane. "A bi-regional CGE model of the South West housing market." Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/2127.
Full textAbstract:
Volatility within the UK housing market is thought to be a significant factor driving instability in the wider macro economy. Research investigating the characteristics and behaviour of the housing market has suggested that under supply of housing is one of the key reasons for the high and increasing levels of house prices the nation has recently been experiencing. Consequently, much of the current government's housing policy is aimed at increasing the level of supply by reforming the planning system and increasing investment in the development of new housing. Under supply is also a major concern at the regional level, particularly in the South West, where net inward migration, growth in the number of single person households and growth in the numbers of second homes is placing increasing pressure on the housing market. Understanding the likely effects of any policy changes prior to their implementation is vitally important for a successful outcome and to that end economic analysis has played a significant role in the development of policy at the national level. However, this is not the case at the regional and sub-regional levels where only limited use of economic analysis techniques have been made, partly due to resource issues and partly due to the lack of regional data. In order to partially address the lack of analysis of the regional impacts of the latest housing policies, this study is based upon the development of a mathematical economic model of the South West housing market. This model is then used to estimate the likely impacts of increasing housing supply at both the regional and broad sub-regional levels.
22
Sumaraharja, Salip Hasta. "EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS IN INDNESIA : A CGE MODEL ANALYSIS." Kyoto University, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/181763.
Full text
23
COLOMBO, GIULIA. "Come legare modelli CGE a modelli di microsimulazione: questioni metodologiche ed applicate." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/227.
Full textAbstract:
Questa tesi offre una descrizione dettagliata di come i modelli di equilibrio generale computazionale (CGE) ed i modelli di microsimulazione possano essere utilizzati congiuntamente, partendo dalla letteratura piú recente sull'argomento, e focalizzando l'attenzione in particolare sulla letteratura riguardante i paesi in via di sviluppo.
La ragione principale per la quale questi modelli vengono utilizzati congiuntamente risiede nel fatto che il ricercatore vuole essere in grado di studiare contemporaneamente l'eterogeneità degli agenti economici e la complessità della distribuzione del reddito, ed allo stesso tempo di valutare gli effetti macroeconomici delle riforme.
Nell'ultimo capitolo costruiamo un modello CGE-microsimulazione per l'economia del Nicaragua. Esso si rivela particolarmente adatto alla riforma di politica economica che vogliamo simulare: l'accordo di libero scambio commerciale tra i paesi dell'America Centrale e gli Stati Uniti è infatti una riforma di tipo macroeconomico, la quale potrebbe tuttavia avere effetti significativi sulla distribuzione del reddito. Con questo modello analizzeremo quindi gli effetti dell'accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti sulla distribuzione del reddito in Nicaragua. I risultati dell'analisi registrano soltanto piccole variazioni sia nelle principali variabili macroeconomiche che nella distribuzione del reddito e negli indici di povertà.This thesis wants to give an assessment and a detailed description of how Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation models can be linked together, taking inspiration from the current literature, with a special focus concerning the literature on developing countries. The main reason why these models are linked together is that the modeller wants to be able to take into account full agents' heterogeneity and the complexity of income distribution, and at the same time to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the policy reforms. In the last chapter, we build a CGE-microsimulation model for the economy of Nicaragua. This model appears to be particularly suited to the policy reform we are willing to simulate with the model: the Free Trade Agreement of Central American countries with USA is mainly a macroeconomic reform, which on the other hand can have important effects on the distribution of income and on poverty. With such a model we will study the possible changes in the distribution of income in Nicaragua deriving from the Free Trade Agreement with USA. Our analysis finds only small changes both in the main macroeconomic variables and in the distribution of income and poverty indices.
24
Cirpici, Yasemin Asu. "Economy-wide Analysis Of Water Resource Management: A Cge Model For Turkey." Phd thesis, METU, 2008. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12609404/index.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Water-related issues are gaining importance at both national and global level. Water resources are becoming insufficient in meeting the rising needs. As resources are distributed unevenly throughout the world, supply and demand correspondence is difficult to meet. The analysis of water related issues should be addressed within a comprehensive framework. CGE models offer this possibility. This study aims to construct a CGE model for Turkey which includes water as a factor of production. It relates water issues with another troublesome debate that is important for Turkey: trade liberalization in agriculture. Turkey as a member of WTO and a candidate country for the EU has to consider the effects of a further liberalization in agriculture on its economy. In this study a trade liberalization scenario and a water-policy scenario have been discussed. Additional simulations are conducted in the case of a productivity increase in agriculture. Results show that, trade liberalization in agriculture leads to an increase in GDP and income levels, but had a negative impact on the trade balance in agricultural products. Applying a &ldquoselective water tax&rdquo
will result in a decrease in production and consumption in water-intensive sectors, as well as in the private income. For the first simulation, productivity increase in agriculture leads to a further increase in both GDP level and incomes, and it compensates the trade distortions resulting from the tariff reduction. In water simulation, private income increases with productivity increase and depletion in production and consumption of agricultural products reversed. Moreover, the net exports in agriculture improve significantly.
25
Furtenback, Örjan. "Fuel substitution in district heating plants : CGE modeling with a forest resource /." Umeå : Sveriges lantbruksuniv, 2009. http://epsilon.slu.se/11862745.pdf.
Full text
26
Mohora, Maria Christina. "RoMod: a dynamic CGE model for Romania a tool for policy analysis /." Rotterdam : Rotterdam : Erasmus Universiteit ; Erasmus University [Host], 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/7455.
Full text
27
Wang, Jiao. "The impact of WTO trade/investment liberalisation on China : a CGE analysis." Thesis, London South Bank University, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.434557.
Full text
28
Adu, Abraham. "The role of financial sector reforms in Ghana : econometric and CGE analyses." Thesis, University of Hull, 2016. http://hydra.hull.ac.uk/resources/hull:14771.
Full text
29
Kitwiwattanachai, Anyarath. "Quantitative impacts of alternative East Asia free trade areas : a CGE assessment." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2008. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/10489/.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of this thesis is to make a comprehensive assessment and comparison of the quantitative economic impacts at both the domestic and the international level of four alternative FTA options in East Asia - ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan, ASEAN-Korea and East Asia - by using a static multi-region, multi-sector CGE model as a tool. With two main extensions to the "standard" CGE model in this study - the introduction of unemployment and the incorporation of highly disaggregated household data (Thailand is a case study) - the analysis is enhanced on the issues of labour markets and poverty and the income distribution. The model results show that trade liberalisation could alleviate real wage inequality in countries abundant in unskilled labour, i.e. China and ASEAN. In contrast, real wage inequality worsens in Japan and Korea, where skilled labour is relatively abundant. The unemployment feature incorporated in the model gives quantitative predictions of both lower unemployment and higher real wages. In general, under a regional agreement - East Asia FTA - member countries would enjoy higher economic welfare gains than under any of the bilateral agreements - ASEAN-China FTA, ASEAN-Japan FTA or ASEAN-Korea FTA. When focusing on poverty and income distribution effects in Thailand, the model results at the national level suggest that all the trade liberalisation options will alleviate the poverty problem in Thailand, but that the degree of poverty reduction will vary depending upon the implemented policy. The poverty in the poorest community (villages), and in the poorest region (the Northeast) improves the most from the East Asia FTA. On the other hand, trade liberalisation, under all options,does not have a major impact on income disparity in Thailand. Sensitivity tests indicate that these results are robust. However, such an "ideal" regional agreement might be deterred by the different strategies of other East Asia nations and by the uneasy relationship between China and Japan, reflecting their economic and political differences.
30
Rojas, Suazo Patricio. ""Propuesta de un sistema de control de gestión para CGE distribución S.A." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2014. http://www.repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/117423.
Full textAbstract:
Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en Control de GestiónEn Chile, la industria de energía eléctrica se subdivide en tres categorías, generación, transmisión y distribución. La generación corresponde a la producción de energía eléctrica desde sus fuentes primarias, conformada por centrales generadoras interconectadas al sistema eléctrico que operan en condiciones de libre competencia; la transmisión incluye sistemas de voltaje superiores a 23 kV (kilovolts), cobro de peajes por el servicio de transporte de energía, opera bajo condiciones de monopolio natural, por lo que se encuentra regulada por la autoridad; y la distribución, asociada al transporte de potencia y energía a niveles de voltaje inferiores a 23 kV, opera bajo condiciones de monopolio natural, debido a la ineficiencia de establecer dos o más sistemas de distribución en la misma zona de concesión, por lo que es una industria regulada en las condiciones de su explotación. En esta última categoría realiza sus actividades CGE Distribución. Para realizar sus actividades la empresa solicita concesiones a la autoridad, mediante las cuales se definen zonas geográficas en la que debe prestar sus servicios. La concesión determina tanto los derechos como obligaciones de la empresa distribuidora. El principal derecho es poder explotar en dicha zona la actividad de distribución de energía eléctrica. La principal obligación es entregar energía eléctrica a todas las personas o empresas que lo soliciten dentro del área de concesión. Las condiciones de su explotación están reguladas en términos de los precios a cobrar a clientes regulados y la calidad del servicio a prestar a los clientes. Las tarifas que son cobradas a éstos son establecidas por la autoridad cada cuatro años. Durante los años intermedios a dicho periodo existen fórmulas de indexación a las principales variables que determinan los precios de la electricidad. Por su parte, la calidad de servicio está regulada en términos de asegurar al cliente la entrega continua de suministro y calidad en el servicio comercial, asociada a una correcta facturación y atención al cliente en los distintos puntos de contacto (oficinas comerciales, centros de pago, call center, entre otros). Si las condiciones establecidas por la autoridad no son cumplidas las empresas de distribución son multadas e incluso se puede producir la pérdida de la concesión, por deficiencias significativas en la continuidad de suministro y/o gestión comercial. La industria de distribución se caracteriza además por que el crecimiento de la demanda eléctrica está correlacionado directamente con el crecimiento del producto interno bruto (PIB) del país, existiendo un crecimiento vertical y horizontal. El crecimiento vertical está asociado al aumento en el consumo por mayores ingresos de las personas y empresas, que implica mayor acceso y utilización de bienes que funcionan con energía eléctrica. El crecimiento horizontal se asocia al crecimiento geográfico tanto de viviendas como empresas. Las proyecciones de demanda eléctrica son positivas, las que van desde 40.000 GWH en el año 2014 a más de 90.000 GWH al año 2030. CGE Distribución mantiene concesiones desde el sur de la Región Metropolitana hasta la IX Región de La Araucanía, lo que la constituye en la empresa con mayor cobertura geográfica del país; posee más de 1.400.000 clientes, lo que representa el 24% del mercado nacional (segunda a nivel nacional); mantiene inversiones por más de MM$ 24.000 (año 2013) a través de la construcción de más de 5.000 proyectos anuales; y forma parte del Grupo CGE, uno de los grupos energéticos más importantes de Chile. En términos de sus debilidades, actualmente (año 2013) la empresa no presenta una buena calidad de servicio, ocupando la posición general n° 30 de un total de 34 empresas de distribución que operan en Chile, y si se considera el segmento de las principales ocho empresas de distribución (con más de 120.000 clientes) CGE Distribución mantiene el último lugar. En este escenario, surge la necesidad de contar con un sistema de control de gestión que permita comunicar e implementar la estrategia a todos los niveles de la organización, alineando el desempeño de los empleados con los objetivos de la empresa, lo que constituye el principal objetivo del presente trabajo.
31
Bron, Jean-Yves. "Intégration de la production communication entre ateliers, C.F.A.O. et G.P.A.O. : application à l'entreprise CGEE Alsthom M.T. Nancy /." Lille 3 : ANRT, 1988. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb376124334.
Full text
32
Bron, Jean-Yves. "Intégration de la production : Communication entre atelier, CFAO et GPAO, application à l'entreprise CGEE Alsthom MT Nancy." Nancy 1, 1988. http://www.theses.fr/1988NAN10096.
Full textAbstract:
Automatisation progressive de l'outil de production en 2 phases : automatisation de machines par commande numérique, mise en place de moyens informatiques pour l'aide à la conception des pièces et la préparation des programmes d'usinage, ainsi que pour la gestion de production, en ce qui concerne la 1ère étape, et intégration de cet ensemble par mise en place d'un système de communication couvrant les ateliers et le bureau des méthodes, dans un 2ème temps
33
Bartsch, Ulrich. "Structural reforms and poverty : a CGE analysis of cotton policy options in Egypt." Thesis, University of Sussex, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.360549.
Full text
34
De, Wet Theunis Jacobus. "The Effect of a tax on coal in South Africa a CGE analysis /." Thesis, Pretoria : [s.n.], 2003. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-06302004-143319.
Full text
35
Baker, Jonathan (Jonathan Early). "The impact of including water constraints on food production within a CGE framework." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68446.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 73-76).
This research explores the long-term relationship between water resources, irrigated land use change and crop production within a computable general equilibrium modeling framework. The modeling approach is developed on a variant of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model that describes three agriculture sectors-crops, livestock and managed forestry-five land types-cropland, pasture land, managed forest land, natural grass land and natural forest land-and conversion among these land types. I further develop this framework by describing crop production as the aggregate production of crops grown on irrigated and non-irrigated cropland. Water resources, through the parameterization of regional irrigable land supply curves, limit conversion to irrigated cropland and thus constrain regional crop production. Land use change, dynamics of irrigated land and regional water demand and crop production are investigated with the new model structure. Non-irrigated cropland is found be expanding faster than irrigated cropland. However, regionally, competition from biofuels for non-irrigated cropland may drive further expansion in irrigated cropland. Regarding water demand, most regions are withdrawing a very small share of their renewable water resource. Crop production levels are compared to results from a model that does not include water constraints. Global crop production declines a small amount with the most significant regional effect observed in the Middle East where regional water constraints have severely restricted the area by which irrigated cropland can expand. This result highlights the importance of considering water resource constraints in regions that experience, or might experience, shortages of water.
by Jonathan Early Baker.
S.M.in Technology and Policy
36
Naumov, Alexander. "An analysis of Kazakhstan and its energy sector using SAM and CGE modeling." Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/2280.
Full textAbstract:
The primary focus of this thesis is the contribution of the oil and gas industry to Kazakhstan’s recent economic development. This industry is analyzed in a broader context with the help of the economy-wide modeling tools such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) and Input-Output models. Such approach allows taking into account all possible linkages the oil and gas industry has with the rest of the economy. The first chapter presents a literature review of CGE studies with an emphasis on applications to energy and transition economies. The thesis proceeds with a description of building a CGE model for Kazakhstan and construction of the SAM. Subsequently, using the above mentioned tools Chapter Four analyses a spillover impact of the oil and gas sector on the rest of the economy. The study establishes that the sector accounted directly and indirectly for about forty percent of economic growth between 2001 and 2005. The final chapter develops an analytical framework to correct representation of the oil and gas sector in the national accounts distorted by the transfer pricing. When adjusted for transfer pricing, the GDP share of the oil and gas sector in 2001 increases to 16.1 percent compared to the officially reported 8.6 percent.
37
Rutten, Martine. "The economic impact of health care provision : a CGE assessment for the UK." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2004. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/10318/.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis seeks to determine the macro-economic impacts of changes in health care provision, whilst recognising the simultaneous effects of consequent changes in health on effective labour supplies and the resource claims made by the health care sector. The resource allocation issues have been explored in theory, by developing an extension of the standard Rybczynski theorem from a low-dimension Heckscher-Ohlin framework, and empirically, by developing a Computable General Equilibrium model, calibrated to a purpose-built dataset for the UK. The theory predicts that, if the government is solely concerned with improving per capita income, a morally questionable policy of targeting health care provision towards skilled workers performs best. Furthermore, the impact of an expanding health sector on the outputs of non-health sectors is shown to depend on the sign and magnitude of a scale effect of increased effective labour supplies and a factor-bias effect of changes in the ratio of skilled to unskilled labour, although the latter effect dominates if effective labour supplies are relatively inelastic with respect to health care provision. The theoretical predictions are not generally validated by the applied model due to added real-life complexities. The main findings are that a rise in NHS expenditures, the employment of foreign health care-specific skilled workers, and costless factor-neutral and skill-biased technical change in the UK health sector have a positive impact upon overall welfare via direct improvements in population well-being and indirect benefits from increased worker incomes. The study indicates that if an expansion of the health sector is financed from a reduction in state benefits, the non-working households and pensioners may require some compensation since they rely relatively heavily on these as a source of income. The presence of health care-specific factors and rising pharmaceutical prices impact negatively upon the health sector and overall welfare, suggesting the importance of tackling rising input costs and structural rigidities. This may be achieved by the immigration policy, although since effects on domestic workers if their wages are not sustained, and on countries of origin faced by a 'brain-drain', are negative, in the long-term increasing the number of medical school places may be more desirable. Another suitable policy response is to purchase a more effective pharmaceutical product. Fairly small productivity gains in health care were shown to generate overall welfare gains. Finally, factor-neutral and skill-biased technical improvements yield significant welfare gains and cost-savings in the health sector. Such technical improvements may come in the form of improved medical procedures, which have been developed abroad yet are freely available or have been funded by charitable institutions, but also may reflect domestic policy which aims at reducing administrative overheads so that more resources can be devoted to front-line staff. The sensitivity of the results to the elasticity of the waiting lists with respect to health care indicates the importance of ensuring that additional resources are effectively employed, attainable by the technical and administrative improvements in health care.
38
Yalew, Amsalu W., Georg Hirte, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Stefan Tscharaktschiew. "Economic Effects of Climate Change in Developing Countries: Economy-wide and Regional Analysis for Ethiopia." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227554.
Full textAbstract:
Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.
39
Villagrán, Miranda Felipe Miguel. "Valoración Compañia General de Electricidad (Grupo CGE) : mediante método de flujo de caja descontado." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2016. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/140261.
Full textAbstract:
Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en FinanzasEl siguiente informe tiene como objetivo obtener una valorización económica tanto del grupo como una valorización por acción de la Compañía General de Electricidad al 30 de junio del 2015 a través del método de flujo de caja libre. Con el objetivo de efectuar la estimación del valor del grupo se analizó́ e investigó respecto a la descripción de la empresa, la industria en la cual opera y al financiamiento que presenta. Por otra parte, se determinó la estructura de capital y el costo patrimonial, además de considerar información relacionada a proyecciones de distintos analistas y políticas de inversión de la compañía para los próximos años, lo que permitió́ proyectar los Estados de Resultados desde Junio del 2015 a diciembre 2019. La metodología utilizada para la valoración económica del precio de la acción consistió en aplicar Flujos de Caja Descontados para los periodos Junio del año 2015 a diciembre del año 2019, a una tasa de costo de capital (WACC) estimada de 4,25%, proyectándose, además, un valor terminal de la empresa a partir del 2019, a través del método de “Valor de Perpetuidad sin Crecimiento”, que corresponde al valor de la compañía a partir del año siguiente de proyección (2020) sin considerar las oportunidades de crecimiento de la compañía1. Finalmente se llegó a un precio objetivo de la acción de $5.986, este precio de la acción obtenido se encuentra por sobre del precio observado por el mercado que es de $3.300, donde a lo largo del desarrollo de este proyecto y en base a los supuestos que serán descritos, se explicara en detalle cómo se obtuvo este precio y los supuestos del por qué el precio calculado es mayor al precio de mercado. La Compañía General de Electricidad es un grupo de aproximadamente 56 empresas que se dedican a la transmisión y distribución de electricidad (Siendo la segunda empresa más importante de electricidad a nivel nacional medida por número de clientes) además de la distribución de gas licuado y gas natural. Esta empresa es controlada actualmente por el grupo español la Caixa a través de Fenosa Chile. La compañía presenta operaciones en Argentina, Chile y Colombia, donde el grueso de sus ingresos corresponde por sus operaciones en Chile, principalmente del sector eléctrico e inversiones en el mercado del gas desde Arica a Punto Williams, siendo las empresas más representativas de este grupo METROGAS, GASCO, CONAFE, CGE Distribución, entre otras.
40
Jakfar, Fajri. "Impacts of timber trade policies on industrial activities in Indonesia using a CGE model." Kyoto University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/149912.
Full textAbstract:
Kyoto University (京都大学)0048
新制・課程博士
博士(農学)
甲第9626号
農博第1254号
新制||農||843(附属図書館)
学位論文||H14||N3658(農学部図書室)
UT51-2002-G384
京都大学大学院農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻
(主査)教授 吉田 昌之, 教授 辻井 博, 教授 加賀 爪優
学位規則第4条第1項該当
41
Yalew, Amsalu, Georg Hirte, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Stefan Tscharaktschiew. "General Equilibrium Effects of Public Adaptation in Agriculture in LDCs: Evidence from Ethiopia." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227316.
Full textAbstract:
Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. This is because its important economic sector, agriculture, is virtually rain-fed. The role of the sector in the current economic structure and the potency of the anticipated biophysical impacts of climate change necessitates proactive adaptation in agriculture. This, however, breeds questions of adaptation costs and adaptation finance. This study attempts to derive plausible range of planned adaptation costs in agriculture along with their economy-wide and regional effects in Ethiopia. It also assess the economy-wide and regional effects of the likely options available to a government of a least-developed country to finance adaptation in agriculture. The results show that planned public adaptation in agriculture puts pressure on government surplus, impedes on manufacturing and private services, and GDP of urbanized regions. As such, it may strain the current macroeconomic endeavors of the country which puts government driven structural transformation and reducing fiscal deficit relative to GDP at the center. Government of Ethiopia may reconcile this by laying out incentives to urban agriculture and private investment in agriculture. Besides, foreign support in the form of biotechnology transfer and debt-relief may help to control the side effects of grants on foreign exchange market and trade balance.
42
王, 飛., Fei Wang, 頌宏 郭, Songhong Guo, 光男 江崎, and Mitsuo Ezaki. "中国の労働移動と地域開発 : 地域リンクCGEモデルによる分析." Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/7493.
Full text
43
Sudarto, Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. "General equilibrium effects of an alternative social security development in Indonesia." Publisher:University of New South Wales. Economics, 2008. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/43178.
Full textAbstract:
This study investigates general equilibrium effects of an alternative social security policy in Indonesia. The study aims to analyse some financial issues of the proposed policy using a dynamic CGE model. The focus is investigating possible tax scenarios to finance the proposed policy and their impacts on the economy. The simulation results suggest that the consumption tax base should be used as the main financing method. This is because based on various simulations the selected consumption taxes have less negative impacts on the economy than the selected income taxes. Those selected consumption taxes more equitably distribute tax burden and improve income inequality in the long run. However, the increasing price because of this policy selection should also be considered seriously. The simulations also include the study of the demographic transition in Indonesia. A view that is common in the literature is that the rapid increase of labor force in the next three decades could raise the proportion of skilled workers in the labor force and enhance the economic growth. Instead the simulations suggest contrary results. When we repeat the tax/transfer simulations with the demographic transition, real GDP per capita and consumption per capita fall further below the baseline projections. Further simulations are conducted to investigate possible policy actions to mitigate the effects of this demographic transition. This study also covers possible allocation decision trade-offs surrounding the proposed social security policy. That is, the trade-offs between universal social pension insurance and universal social health insurance, and between universal tax-financed social security programs and other important development programs. Given the limitation of our study, that all stakeholders have agreed to develop a universal tax-financed social security program, we conclude that universal tax-financed social health insurance should be given more priority than universal tax-financed social pension insurance. The study concludes with some remarks regarding important areas for future research.
44
Naranpanawa, Athula Kithsiri Bandara, and n/a. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model: The Sri Lankan Case." Griffith University. Griffith Business School, 2005. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20070130.165943.
Full textAbstract:
Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.
45
Wu, Yinghong. "Economic impacts of different skilled levels of immigration labour : a CGE assessment for the UK." Thesis, Middlesex University, 2011. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/12380/.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of this thesis is to make a comprehensive assessment of economic impacts of different skilled level of international immigration labour on the UK by using a multiregion, multi-sector CGE-ILA model as a tool, with four main extensions from the IFPRI standard CGE framework, namely, the four-level nested CES production functions, highly disaggregated household data, two foreign regions and the assumption of imperfect labour market. The model is calibrated to a purpose-built 41x41 SAM dataset for the UK 2004. By employing four sets of criterions, the analysis combines four skill-type of immigration labour to look at their impacts on the UK economy from six aspects: economic growth, international trade, wage and unemployment, incomes of institutions, employment in sectors, production prices and scale of production. The main findings are: 1) The inflow of higher-skilled labour can make significant contribution to UK economy and alleviate wage inequality; although lower-skilled immigration labour also has the positive effects on UK economy, they can worsen the wage inequality. 2) Only increase of small proportion (<8%) of highly-skilled immigration labour will reduce total unemployment. 3) Increase of immigration labour has positive effects on the incomes of all institutions, of which enterprises and government gain the larger benefit than households do. The higher the skill of immigration labour has, the larger the contribution they will make. 4) The unskilled immigration labour has the larger positive effects on UK economy than the semi-skilled has, and has the positive impacts on reducing the activity prices of the some sectors in the Primary and Secondary Industry, and then encourages more exports than imports. 5) The semi-skilled immigration labour is the least needed in the UK labour market, if the reduction of unemployment is the prior consideration. Thus, the policy implication of the current study is that the highly-skilled immigration labour is urgently and largely needed by the UK economy; the recommended scale of immigration labour is a mix with a large proportion of higher-skilled labour force and a small proportion of the lower-skilled.
46
Ferrarini, Angel dos Santos Fachinelli. "Avaliação setorial do uso da água no Brasil: uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável (CGE)." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11132/tde-14032018-123416/.
Full textAbstract:
Esta tese teve por objetivo verificar como expansões de área irrigada no país aumentariam o uso de água regional. Para isso, os cenários descritos no Plano Nacional de Recursos Hídricos (PNRH) foram utilizados como política de expansão para a irrigação no país. Os cenários descritos são cenário 1 (água para todos), cenário 2 (água para alguns) e cenário 3 (água para poucos), e são situações hipotéticas reportadas pelo plano. Estes cenários foram adaptados com as informações de áreas potencialmente irrigáveis descritas no estudo do Ministério da Integração Nacional (MI) sobre a Análise Territorial para o Desenvolvimento da Agricultura Irrigada. Para tal, utilizou-se um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral denominado TERM-BR, um modelo dinâmico, bottom-up, inter-regional para as simulações dos cenários de demanda futura para o uso da água. O método de Thornthwaite e Mather foi utilizado para estimar o balanço hídrico climatológico (CWB) para os estados do Nordeste e com isso avaliar a situação da disponibilidade hídrica em condições determinadas nessa região. Diversos trabalhos foram utilizados na elaboração da base de dados com informações municipais (agricultura e consumo humano) e informações estaduais (pecuária e indústria), produtividade das culturas, áreas plantadas e colhidas também foram utilizadas. Os resultados simulados sugerem que as expansões de área irrigada proporcionariam mudanças positivas nas variáveis macroeconômicos como consumo das famílias, investimento, gastos do governo, exportações, PIB para o país. Em relação as variáveis macroeconômicas regionais, o estado do Mato Grosso se destacaria em todos os cenários e apresentaria uma mudança no PIB e investimento maior no cenário 1. Expansões de área irrigada na região Centro-Oeste e Norte são viáveis em todos os cenários, especialmente nos estados do Mato Grosso, Goiás, Tocantins, Pará e Minas Gerais na região Sudeste. A maior mudança percentual no uso da água ocorreria na soja e no algodão e o maior volume de uso de água (milhões de metros cúbicos) ocorreria na cultura da cana de açúcar e no arroz. Os resultados da interação entre o modelo TERM-BR e o método de CWB para os estados do Nordeste indicam que os estados de Alagoas e Pernambuco seriam os mais propensos a ter problemas com a disponibilidade hídrica. O aumento no uso de água por região hidrográfica é condizente com o proposto no PNRH e esse aumento deveria ser maior nas regiões hidrográficas do Tocantins-Araguaia (Tocantins, Pará, Mato Grosso e Goiás) e no Atlântico Nordeste Ocidental nos estados do Maranhão e Pará.This dissertation aimed to verify how expansions of irrigated area in the country would increase the regional water use. For this, the scenarios described in the National Water Resources Plan (PNRH in Portuguese) were used as policy for expansion of irrigation in the country. The scenarios related are scenario 1 (water for all), scenario 2 (water for some) and scenario 3 (water for few), and are hypothetical situations reported by the plan. These scenarios were adapted with the information about irrigable areas described by Ministry of National Integration (MI) on the Territorial Analysis for the Development of Irrigated Agriculture. A computable general equilibrium model namely TERM-BR was used in the simulation, this is dynamic, bottom-up, interregional model for simulations of scenarios for water. The Thornthwaite and Mather method was employed to estimate the Climatic Water Balance (CWB) for Northeastern states and to assess the water availability situation under specific conditions in that region. Several studies were compiled to elaborate the database; some with municipal information (agriculture and human consumption) and others with state information (livestock and industry). Crop productivity, and planted and harvested areas were also used. The results suggest that the expansions in the national irrigated areas would provide positive changes in macroeconomic variables such as household consumption, investment, government spending, exports, and national GDP. Mato Grosso state would stand out in all the scenarios regarding regional macroeconomic variables, and change in regional GDP and investment would be greater in scenario 1. Expansions in the Center-West and North regions are feasible in all scenarios, especially in Mato Grosso, Goiás, Tocantins, Pará and Minas Gerais state. The highest percentage change in water use would occur in soybeans and cotton crops and the largest volume of water use (millions of cubic meters) would occur in sugar cane and rice crop. The results for the interaction between the TERM-BR model and CWB method for the Northeastern states indicate that, Alagoas and Pernambuco state would be the most likely to have problems with water availability. The increase in water use by hydrographic region is consistent with that proposed in the PNRH, and this increase should be higher in the Tocantins-Araguaia hydrographic regions (Tocantins, Pará, Mato Grosso and Goiás) and in the Western Northeast Atlantic in Maranhão and Pará state.
47
Kyalimpa, Francis Drake. "Prospects for economic growth and poverty reduction in Uganda : a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2014. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/bffe7268-93dc-434c-a138-07af2843a51f.
Full textAbstract:
Uganda faces considerable challenges in revamping economic growth performance, reducing the proportional of people living below the poverty line to below 20 percent, and attaining other Millennium Development Goals by the year 2015. These developments have prompted the government to prioritise poverty alleviation and the attainment of sustainable real GDP growth (i.e. at 7 percent per annum), among other policies. This dissertation argues that a proper identification of the critical sectors of growth with significant linkages to the rest of the economy can guide policy makers to affect the outcomes of external shocks (e.g. by redirecting resources to sectors with potential for higher output growth and welfare effects) .Using the 2002 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Uganda, we investigate the properties of the multipliers that can be calculated from the SAM, in particular contrasting them with the simpler input-output multipliers. Using the SAM multipliers, the computed linkages suggest that Agriculture, Food Processing, and Other Services (Trade, and Health and Education) are the key sectors of Uganda’s economy. Similarly, Manufacturing, Construction, and Transport were found to be sectors with weak linkages to the rest of the economy. Moreover, the multiplier impact on output, employment, and household income distribution is higher with in agriculture relative to other sectors. Our multiplier results confirm the need for policy makers in Uganda to target agriculture-led growth if Uganda is to substantially raise economy wide growth, and to improve household incomes for significant poverty alleviation. Policies to boost the agriculture sector include: building and maintaining feeder roads, provision of farm inputs, training farmers on better methods of production and productivity, reviving cooperatives (i.e. to enable coordinated farming activities, storage, processing, and marketing of farmers produce, and easy access to credit from lending institutions). It should be noted that Agriculture in Uganda is characterised by low productivity resulting from the use of poor inputs, undeveloped value chains, and low public and private investment in the sector. Government should significantly invest in agro-processing industries to increase value addition and exports for higher incomes. Since such investments are costly, requiring significant capital investments which majority of poor farmers cannot afford, the government should promote public-private sector partnership. It should be noted that Uganda’s exports are dominated by unprocessed primary low products which fetch low earnings from world markets. Using a country specific CGE model and selected exogenous changes and policies, our findings suggest that an increase in the world price of exports and workers remittances, and a decrease in import tariffs are growth and welfare enhancing with the positive shock to world export prices producing the largest impact on real GDP, employment (largely, low skilled labour and in agriculture), factor and household incomes. The significant role of migrant remittances in growth and poverty alleviation (i.e. by increasing household incomes, and investment in agriculture, education, and real estate among others) is worth noting. These findings suggest that Ugandan authorities could encourage Ugandans living and working abroad to invest at home by introducing a diaspora bond and sharing information on investment opportunities to encourage increased inflow of workers remittances which would boost domestic investment. Where possible, surplus labour could be exported to other regions or countries and arrangements made to have workers remittances invested in Uganda. In all the policy experiments performed, we find that the welfare of households in the northern and eastern regions of the country is lower compared to that of households based in other regions. This suggests that the government needs to design and implement specific poverty alleviation programs in these regions. The relatively high poverty in northern and eastern regions is attributed to the 19 year civil conflict and the communal land ownership which limits agriculture production for food security and improved household incomes. The government could increase the provision of social and physical infrastructure and promote sustainable agriculture by opening up irrigation schemes, supplying farmers with drought resistant crops, restocking farms, and building and maintain valley dams, and implementing land reforms which promote agriculture. Given the importance of agriculture to Uganda’s growth and poverty alleviation prospects, we argue that the government should implement the recommendations of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) and the Maputo Declaration which calls for the allocation of 10 percent of the national budget to agriculture. This allocation is necessary to achieve the target of agriculture sector growth by 6 percent which is required to reduce significantly the number of Ugandans living in extreme poverty and hunger. The budgetary allocation of 4 percent coupled with inadequate supervision, and corruption and misallocation of funds meant for agriculture development programs have contributed to persistent decline in in output and increase in rural and urban poverty. Our results suggest agriculture is associated with higher employment of low skilled labour which is the largest labour force in Uganda. According to the World Bank, employment is the surest way to poverty alleviation. Thus, Uganda should pursue an agriculture led growth strategy for poverty alleviation and sustained economic growth. However, to substantially increase household incomes and contribute to poverty alleviation, policy interventions in agriculture should focus on increasing value addition through food processing and exports. Further, interventions that empower women to own assets should be enforced by government. Women are the principal users of land, and they must have stronger rights over the resources they depend upon. Our simulations have demonstrated that employment and incomes of women increase from interventions that target the agriculture sector in Uganda. Women constitute over 90 percent of the total labour force employed in agriculture and earn less or none of farm incomes, and most of them operate under chronic poverty. To gain greater knowledge of and control over their environment and build more productive sustainable systems, the government could empower women with basic education and training, increase their access to new technologies and mobilise them to participate in rural saving banks and cooperatives to boost their earnings from agriculture. Our results suggest that Services (mainly education and health) are potential candidates for growth and poverty alleviation in Uganda because they generate significant employment. However, Uganda, Services employ high skilled labour and are urban based, implying they cannot absorb the dominant low skilled labour and the youth. According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Uganda currently has about 34.5 million people of which about 65 percent are youth. About 83 percent of these youth (aged 18-30 years) have no formal employment. This calls for authorities in Uganda to reorient the current curriculum towards her development needs where the youth and graduates are trained to be job creators and not job seekers. Massive investment in vocation training where the youth are trained and equipped with skills to manage their own lives by engaging in small scale projects should be prioritised by the government. To overcome the high rate of youth and graduate unemployment in developing countries Uganda inclusive, the donor community in collaboration with African governments identified vocational training as a critical component in each country’s poverty reduction strategy.
48
Bussolo, Maurizio. "A Mediterranean region FTA : some economic and environmental effects studied within a dynamic CGE framework." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1997. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/109738/.
Full text
49
Karadag, Metin. "The effects of VAT harmonisation with the EU on the Turkish economy : a CGE approach." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1997. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/27828.
Full textAbstract:
Turkey has recently applied to become a member of the European Union (EU). The ultimate goal is full membership of the EU and with this application Turkey is obliged to undertake changes to the structure of the economy as a means of preparing for membership. Turkey's integration into the EU will result in the strict adoption of certain EU principles. In particular, all applicants are expected to adopt EU fiscal structures, for example the use of VAT as the main turnover tax. With regard to this, Turkey introduced VAT in 1985 even before her membership and followed the developments in the EU as far as VAT harmonisation is concerned.
50
Oskarsson, Joel. "Probabilistic Regression using Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Statistik och maskininlärning, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-166637.
Full textAbstract:
Regression is a central problem in statistics and machine learning with applications everywhere in science and technology. In probabilistic regression the relationship between a set of features and a real-valued target variable is modelled as a conditional probability distribution. There are cases where this distribution is very complex and not properly captured by simple approximations, such as assuming a normal distribution. This thesis investigates how conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) can be used to properly capture more complex conditional distributions. GANs have seen great success in generating complex high-dimensional data, but less work has been done on their use for regression problems. This thesis presents experiments to better understand how conditional GANs can be used in probabilistic regression. Different versions of GANs are extended to the conditional case and evaluated on synthetic and real datasets. It is shown that conditional GANs can learn to estimate a wide range of different distributions and be competitive with existing probabilistic regression models.