Academic literature on the topic 'Change point and trend detection'

The chapter presents an integrative cross-national comparative analysis of party change in all twenty-six countries under study. It finds that, apart from often sharing the same decline trend, the various indicators of party change appear to be independent of one another. The indicators that refer to the various mediators and those that refer to voters point clearly to decline, while those that look at the party background of representatives stand out as prominent survivors of a major decline trend. Party decline is evident in almost all countries, but its levels vary. Many explanations for variance are ruled out, leaving room for the possibility that human agency rather than environmental factors may prove to be the cause. Parties are not on their way out, but in some countries they have already experienced sharp decline, while in others their experience may be better described as adaptation. In many others still, parties lie somewhere in-between these poles.

Multiple palaeoclimatic reconstructions point to a succession of major droughts in the Maya Lowlands between AD 750 and 1100 superimposed on a regional drying trend that itself was marked by considerable spatial and temporal variability. The longest and most severe regional droughts occurred between AD 800 and 900 and again between AD 1000 and 1100. Well-dated historical records carved on stone monuments from forty Classic Period civic-ceremonial centers reflect a dynamic sociopolitical landscape between AD 250 and 800 marked by a complex of antagonistic, diplomatic, lineage-based, and subordinate networks. Warfare between Maya polities increased between AD 600 and 800 within the context of population expansion and long-term environmental degradation exacerbated by increasing drought. Nevertheless, in spite of the clear effects of drought on network collapse during the Classic Period, one lingering question is why polities in the northern lowlands persisted and even flourished between AD 800 and 1000 (Puuc Maya and Chichén Itzá) before they too fragmented during an extended and severe regional drought between AD 1000 and 1100. Here we review available regional climate records during this critical transition and consider the different sociopolitical trajectories in the South/Central versus Northern Maya lowlands.

The book examines two of the most prominent developments in contemporary democratic politics, party change and political personalization, and the relationship between them. It presents a broad-brush, cross-national comparison of these phenomena that covers around fifty years in twenty-six countries through the use of more than twenty indicators. It demonstrates that, behind a general trend of decline of political parties, there is much variance among countries. In some, party decline is moderate or even small, which may point to adaptation to the changing environments these parties operate in. In others, parties sharply decline. Most cases fall between these two poles. A clear general trend of personalization in politics is identified, but there are large differences among countries in its magnitude and manifestations. Surprisingly, the online world seems to supply parties with an opportunity to revive. When parties decline, personalization increases. Yet these are far from being perfect zero-sum relationships, which leaves room for the possibility that other political actors may step in when parties decline and that, in some cases, personalization may not hurt parties; it may even strengthen them. Personalization is a big challenge to parties. But parties were, are, and will remain a solution to the problem of collective action, of channeling personal energies to the benefit of the group. Thus they can cope with personalization and even use it to their advantage.

In the past 50 years, human activities and climatic variability have caused major environmental changes in the semi-arid Sahelian zone and desertification/degradation of arable lands is of major concern for livelihoods and food security. In the wake of the Sahel droughts in the early 1970s and 1980s, the UN focused on the problem of desertification by organizing the UN Conference on Desertification (UNCOD) in Nairobi in 1976. This fuelled a significant increase in the often alarmist popular accounts of desertification as well as scientific efforts in providing an understanding of the mechanisms involved. The global interest in the subject led to the nomination of desertification as focal point for one of three international environmental conventions: the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), emerging from the Rio conference in 1992. This implied that substantial efforts were made to quantify the extent of desertification and to understand its causes. Desertification is a complex and multi-faceted phenomenon aggravating poverty that can be seen as both a cause and a consequence of land resource depletion. As reflected in its definition adopted by the UNCCD, desertification is “land degradation in arid, semi-arid[,] and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climate variation and human activities” (UN, 1992). While desertification was seen as a phenomenon of relevance to drylands globally, the Sahel-Sudan region remained a region of specific interest and a significant amount of scientific efforts have been invested to provide an empirically supported understanding of both climatic and anthropogenic factors involved. Despite decades of intensive research on human–environmental systems in the Sahel, there is no overall consensus about the severity of desertification and the scientific literature is characterized by a range of conflicting observations and interpretations of the environmental conditions in the region. Earth Observation (EO) studies generally show a positive trend in rainfall and vegetation greenness over the last decades for the majority of the Sahel and this has been interpreted as an increase in biomass and contradicts narratives of a vicious cycle of widespread degradation caused by human overuse and climate change. Even though an increase in vegetation greenness, as observed from EO data, can be confirmed by ground observations, long-term assessments of biodiversity at finer spatial scales highlight a negative trend in species diversity in several studies and overall it remains unclear if the observed positive trends provide an environmental improvement with positive effects on people’s livelihood.

This text reviews fundametals and incorporates key themes of quantum physics. One theme contrasts boson condensation and fermion exclusivity. Bose–Einstein condensation is basic to superconductivity, superfluidity and gaseous BEC. Fermion exclusivity leads to compact stars and to atomic structure, and thence to the band structure of metals and semiconductors with applications in material science, modern optics and electronics. A second theme is that a wavefunction at a point, and in particular its phase is unique (ignoring a global phase change). If there are symmetries, conservation laws follow and quantum states which are eigenfunctions of the conserved quantities. By contrast with no particular symmetry topological effects occur such as the Bohm–Aharonov effect: also stable vortex formation in superfluids, superconductors and BEC, all these having quantized circulation of some sort. The quantum Hall effect and quantum spin Hall effect are ab initio topological. A third theme is entanglement: a feature that distinguishes the quantum world from the classical world. This property led Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen to the view that quantum mechanics is an incomplete physical theory. Bell proposed the way that any underlying local hidden variable theory could be, and was experimentally rejected. Powerful tools in quantum optics, including near-term secure communications, rely on entanglement. It was exploited in the the measurement of CP violation in the decay of beauty mesons. A fourth theme is the limitations on measurement precision set by quantum mechanics. These can be circumvented by quantum non-demolition techniques and by squeezing phase space so that the uncertainty is moved to a variable conjugate to that being measured. The boundaries of precision are explored in the measurement of g-2 for the electron, and in the detection of gravitational waves by LIGO; the latter achievement has opened a new window on the Universe. The fifth and last theme is quantum field theory. This is based on local conservation of charges. It reaches its most impressive form in the quantum gauge theories of the strong, electromagnetic and weak interactions, culminating in the discovery of the Higgs. Where particle physics has particles condensed matter has a galaxy of pseudoparticles that exist only in matter and are always in some sense special to particular states of matter. Emergent phenomena in matter are successfully modelled and analysed using quasiparticles and quantum theory. Lessons learned in that way on spontaneous symmetry breaking in superconductivity were the key to constructing a consistent quantum gauge theory of electroweak processes in particle physics.

The method described in this paper is intended to improve data stability and reduce dispersion of a given parameter signal by replacing any point deemed to be noise (e.g. an outlier) with an estimate of the parameter based on its recent history. This method determines a point is an outlier by utilizing learning and analytical elements that automatically adjust to the dispersion of the input data and automatically model the underlying process. The analytical elements of this method contain two types of embedded knowledge. The first is physics based engineering knowledge based on known interrelationships between the parameters to provide evidence when a parameter data point is physically unexplainable. It also contains the rule-based knowledge of real gas turbine trend characteristics such as persistency, polarity, and monotonic direction. Once a parameter data point is suspected to be noise, the system validates that assessment with a persistency check. If no parameter trend shift is occurring, as determined by a lack of persistency, the parameter is deemed noise and is replaced with the parameter’s last good state. Persistency checks enable removing noise without obscuring shifts in data that could be occurring due to real system changes. The process is designed to decide within two points if a data point should be considered noise. The goal of the process presented here for improving the quality of gas generator data is to automatically replace all probable noise without distorting the underlying parameter signals. The metrics for success are a 25% reduction in the dispersion (e.g. scatter) of the data with no bias in the parameter central tendency (e.g. mean value), with no reduction the granularity of the parameter signal (visibility of anomalies), and with no delay in the detection of a real trend change.

This report presents a wave method to be used for the structural identification and damage detection of structural components in bridges, e.g., bridge piers. This method has proven to be promising when applied to real structures and large amplitude responses in buildings (e.g., mid-rise and high-rise buildings). This study is the first application of the method to damaged bridge structures. The bridge identification was performed using wave propagation in a simple uniform shear beam model. The method identifies a wave velocity for the structure by fitting an equivalent uniform shear beam model to the impulse response functions of the recorded earthquake response. The structural damage is detected by measuring changes in the identified velocities from one damaging event to another. The method uses the acceleration response recorded in the structure to detect damage. In this study, the acceleration response from a shake-table four-span bridge tested to failure was used. Pairs of sensors were identified to represent a specific wave passage in the bridge. Wave velocities were identified for several sensor pairs and various shaking intensities are reported; further, actual observed damage in the bridge was compared with the detected reductions in the identified velocities. The results show that the identified shear wave velocities presented a decreasing trend as the shaking intensity was increased, and the average percentage reduction in the velocities was consistent with the overall observed damage in the bridge. However, there was no clear correlation between a specific wave passage and the observed reduction in the velocities. This indicates that the uniform shear beam model was too simple to localize the damage in the bridge. Instead, it provides a proxy for the overall extent of change in the response due to damage.

Emergency Relief (ER) is a Department of Social Services (DSS) funded program, delivered by 197 community organisations (ER Providers) across Australia, to assist people facing a financial crisis with financial/material aid and referrals to other support programs. ER has been playing this important role in Australian communities since 1979. Without ER, more people living in Australia who experience a financial crisis might face further harm such as crippling debt or homelessness. The Emergency Relief National Coordination Group (NCG) was established in April 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to advise the Minister for Families and Social Services on the implementation of ER. To inform its advice to the Minister, the NCG partnered with the Institute for Governance at the University of Canberra to conduct research to understand the issues and challenges faced by ER Providers and Service Users in local contexts across Australia. The research involved a desktop review of the existing literature on ER service provision, a large survey which all Commonwealth ER Providers were invited to participate in (and 122 responses were received), interviews with a purposive sample of 18 ER Providers, and the development of a program logic and theory of change for the Commonwealth ER program to assess progress. The surveys and interviews focussed on ER Provider perceptions of the strengths, weaknesses, future challenges, and areas of improvement for current ER provision. The trend of increasing case complexity, the effectiveness of ER service delivery models in achieving outcomes for Service Users, and the significance of volunteering in the sector were investigated. Separately, an evaluation of the performance of the NCG was conducted and a summary of the evaluation is provided as an appendix to this report. Several themes emerged from the review of the existing literature such as service delivery shortcomings in dealing with case complexity, the effectiveness of case management, and repeat requests for service. Interviews with ER workers and Service Users found that an uplift in workforce capability was required to deal with increasing case complexity, leading to recommendations for more training and service standards. Several service evaluations found that ER delivered with case management led to high Service User satisfaction, played an integral role in transforming the lives of people with complex needs, and lowered repeat requests for service. A large longitudinal quantitative study revealed that more time spent with participants substantially decreased the number of repeat requests for service; and, given that repeat requests for service can be an indicator of entrenched poverty, not accessing further services is likely to suggest improvement. The interviews identified the main strengths of ER to be the rapid response and flexible use of funds to stabilise crisis situations and connect people to other supports through strong local networks. Service Users trusted the system because of these strengths, and ER was often an access point to holistic support. There were three main weaknesses identified. First, funding contracts were too short and did not cover the full costs of the program—in particular, case management for complex cases. Second, many Service Users were dependent on ER which was inconsistent with the definition and intent of the program. Third, there was inconsistency in the level of service received by Service Users in different geographic locations. These weaknesses can be improved upon with a joined-up approach featuring co-design and collaborative governance, leading to the successful commissioning of social services. The survey confirmed that volunteers were significant for ER, making up 92% of all workers and 51% of all hours worked in respondent ER programs. Of the 122 respondents, volunteers amounted to 554 full-time equivalents, a contribution valued at $39.4 million. In total there were 8,316 volunteers working in the 122 respondent ER programs. The sector can support and upskill these volunteers (and employees in addition) by developing scalable training solutions such as online training modules, updating ER service standards, and engaging in collaborative learning arrangements where large and small ER Providers share resources. More engagement with peak bodies such as Volunteering Australia might also assist the sector to improve the focus on volunteer engagement. Integrated services achieve better outcomes for complex ER cases—97% of survey respondents either agreed or strongly agreed this was the case. The research identified the dimensions of service integration most relevant to ER Providers to be case management, referrals, the breadth of services offered internally, co-location with interrelated service providers, an established network of support, workforce capability, and Service User engagement. Providers can individually focus on increasing the level of service integration for their ER program to improve their ability to deal with complex cases, which are clearly on the rise. At the system level, a more joined-up approach can also improve service integration across Australia. The key dimensions of this finding are discussed next in more detail. Case management is key for achieving Service User outcomes for complex cases—89% of survey respondents either agreed or strongly agreed this was the case. Interviewees most frequently said they would provide more case management if they could change their service model. Case management allows for more time spent with the Service User, follow up with referral partners, and a higher level of expertise in service delivery to support complex cases. Of course, it is a costly model and not currently funded for all Service Users through ER. Where case management is not available as part of ER, it might be available through a related service that is part of a network of support. Where possible, ER Providers should facilitate access to case management for Service Users who would benefit. At a system level, ER models with a greater component of case management could be implemented as test cases. Referral systems are also key for achieving Service User outcomes, which is reflected in the ER Program Logic presented on page 31. The survey and interview data show that referrals within an integrated service (internal) or in a service hub (co-located) are most effective. Where this is not possible, warm referrals within a trusted network of support are more effective than cold referrals leading to higher take-up and beneficial Service User outcomes. However, cold referrals are most common, pointing to a weakness in ER referral systems. This is because ER Providers do not operate or co-locate with interrelated services in many cases, nor do they have the case management capacity to provide warm referrals in many other cases. For mental illness support, which interviewees identified as one of the most difficult issues to deal with, ER Providers offer an integrated service only 23% of the time, warm referrals 34% of the time, and cold referrals 43% of the time. A focus on referral systems at the individual ER Provider level, and system level through a joined-up approach, might lead to better outcomes for Service Users. The program logic and theory of change for ER have been documented with input from the research findings and included in Section 4.3 on page 31. These show that ER helps people facing a financial crisis to meet their immediate needs, avoid further harm, and access a path to recovery. The research demonstrates that ER is fundamental to supporting vulnerable people in Australia and should therefore continue to be funded by government.