Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Climate change|Agricultural economics'

The empirical analysis in this dissertation comprises two essays investigating the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Morocco, with an emphasis on climate uncertainty and robust adaptation.

The first essay in Chapter 4 provides estimates of economic impacts of climate change, and estimates on the extent to which the current Moroccan agricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert (PMV), could help in agricultural adaptation to climate change and uncertainty.

We simulated three cases. First, we examined the impacts of PMV on the economy in the absence of climate change and found that it could provide about a 2.4% increase in GDP if the targets could be achieved. Subsequently, we did a separate simulation of the impacts of climate change on the Moroccan economy with no PMV (CC-Only) and found that there would be negative GDP impacts ranging between -0.5% and -3% depending on the climate scenario under the without CO₂ case. Including CO₂ fertilization effects induces a slight change in the distribution of impacts, which range from -1.4% to +0.3%. Finally, we evaluated the extent to which PMV could help mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, and we found that the gain was quite small ranging between +0.02% and +0.04%.

The ability of the PMV strategy to mitigate the negative effects of climate change is limited at best, if non-existent. This is due to the scope of the PMV simulations limited to the strategic agricultural crop sectors in Morocco, which jointly represent no more than 35% of aggregate agricultural GDP; whereas the rest of the sectors account for 65%. Additionally, the likelihood of meeting the PMV productivity targets is low in light of our benchmark analysis comparing productivity prior to and after the adoption of GMO technologies.

The second essay examines the interaction of globalization through trade liberalization and climate change. Our hypothesis was that the more trade is liberalized, the higher the potential to compensate for losses due to climate change.

Our findings suggest that at the global level, our hypothesis is verified. World welfare gains are highest under a multilateral trade liberalization scenario, which induces a total offset of climate change welfare losses. However, under partial trade liberalization, the welfare gains become very small in comparison with the climate change impacts.

At the regional level, the results are more nuanced and our hypothesis does not hold for all regions. For instance, and focusing on Morocco as a case study, the net welfare impacts associated with trade liberalization are negative on average. But under the multilateral trade liberalization scenario, Morocco experiences net welfare gains under the SRES A1B and B1, which respectively reached US$ +23 million and US$ +16 million. Although trade liberalization induces net allocative efficiency gains under most scenarios, the large negative terms of trade effects offset most of the gains.

In an era of global-scale climate change, agricultural production faces a unique challenge due to its reliance on stochastic natural endowments, including temperature, precipitation, and water availability for irrigation. This dissertation presents a series of essays to examine how agricultural producers react and adapt to challenges presented by climate change and scarce irrigation water allocated through the prior appropriation doctrine. The dissertation approaches the problem from three distinct perspectives: institutional differences, climate and water availability, as well as producers' expectation on future endowments. Chapter 2 presents an institutional perspective, in which I investigate how different water allocation mechanisms within the prior appropriation doctrine result in differences in producers' crop allocation decisions. I find that water users in irrigation districts are able to plant more water-intensive crops than farmers outside irrigation districts. Chapter 3 presents the interaction between nature and human systems, in which I examine how the physiological complementarity of temperature and water availability diffuses from crop yield (at the intensive margin) to crop allocation strategies (at the extensive margin). Using a theoretical model I show that the observed complementarity reflects a combination of two mechanisms: yield impact through physiological complementarity, and adaptation response through shifting crop allocation patterns. Using an empirical model, I find that farmers adapt to changing climate conditions by growing more profitable crop mixes when presented with more growing degree-days (GDD), precipitation and groundwater access. Chapter 4 presents a behavioral perspective, in which I test how producers' expectation formation processes lead to short term over-adjustments to weather and water availability fluctuations. Using a fixed-effect regression on lagged weather and water realizations, I find that agricultural producers engage in a combination of cognitive biases, including the availability heuristic and the reinforcement strategy. Adopting these alternative learning mechanisms causes farmers to significantly over-react to more recent fluctuations in weather and water availability when making ex ante acreage and crop allocation decisions.
Ph. D.

Master of Agribusiness
Department of Agricultural Economics
Michael Boland
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their negative effect on the environment is a growing concern in the world. It is estimated that agriculture is responsible for 7% of the total GHG emissions in the United States. Currently, environmental policies to regulate GHG are in place in different countries and are expected to increase in the future. Increased awareness about climate change by customers also represents an incentive for companies in measuring their emissions. The objective of this study is to estimate carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions from eight agribusiness retailers in Kansas. Data consisted of two years of energy inputs from the operation of the agribusiness retailers. Carbon emission coefficients were employed to determine carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions associated with the use of each energy input during their operations. Results suggest that electricity is the largest source of total carbon dioxide emissions from the retail operations followed by diesel fuel. Diesel fuel represents the main source of direct emissions and gasoline represents the second largest source of direct emissions. Emissions from the agricultural sector will not be regulated under the current American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 but information on their potential carbon footprint may be used in identifying specific processes where emissions could be reduced and to analyze possible climate legislation implications for their operations. If agribusinesses were to be regulated, none of the eight retailers have locations with emission levels that would be subject to the current cap and trade bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives. But, if they were regulated and had to comply by purchasing carbon credits equal to 5 to 20% of their direct emissions, the cost would be low given estimation of future carbon prices in the literature. Even if agricultural retailers are not directly restricted, they will likely be affected by increases in energy input prices if such legislation is enacted.

This thesis will cover how to lessen the negative effects of chemical fertilizer on the environment. By determining if there is a sustainable solution that allows farmers to prolong their soil nutrition and avoid toxic run-off pollution. A comparison between organic and chemical fertilizers is key to evaluating if a sustainable solution lies within a conversion to using organic fertilizers.

The justification for the following topic begins with the growing demands of food how to sustain the exponential population growth. The agricultural industry has industrialized to become machine and less labor intensive. Farmers need to utilize this revolution to take the industry one step further of switching to organic farming. The trend of organic farming is growing and consumers are increasing demand for such products. The vital industry unconsciously contributes to global warming in several areas by utilizing methods of fertilization, the carbon footprint, and land use. Methods of fertilization can be adapted to more sustainable methods whereas the carbon footprint and land use are inevitable to adhere to the population. Fertilizers have allowed humans to meet the increasing demands of our growing population with the proper nutrition to sustain us all. Sustainable use of fertilizers is key to meeting people’s needs and allowing the plant to naturally restore.

Environmental Wicked Theory will explain the many factors at play and how at sometimes making the switch from organic to chemical fertilizers is not as simple as some think. The many stakeholders at play with differentiating interest oftentimes make a common ground seem far fetched or unattainable. This thesis will attempt to achieve a cohesive solution by managing the wicked problem of the agricultural industry’s contributions to climate change.

The case will analyze the effects of chemical fertilizers on soil nutrition from a pecan farm in Alabama. Given the external surrounding of having access to fresh manure next door the case aims to provide a step by step process. This model will give farmers the tools necessary to make the switch to an organic farm.

Changing weather patterns, the declining social fabric of rural communities, and economic uncertainty increasingly pose challenges to Vermont communities. The socially and environmentally embedded production practices within sustainable agriculture present a potential solution to these problems. In order to make the most of the potential benefits of these practices society must maximize their adoption. This requires an understanding of both farmer adoption of these practices and consumer perceptions of the resulting food products. This thesis contributes two original articles on sustainable agriculture through the analysis of factors driving both farmer adoption and consumer perceptions of products and practices often thought of as sustainable. The first article seeks to understand farmer adoption of climate change best management practices (CCBMPs). Farmer perceptions of risk and profitability of best management practices (BMPs) are key determinants of adoption, which traditional incentive programs like the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) attempt to address by providing financial and technical support. To ensure appropriate price points are offered through these programs, regional price structures must be based upon locally established costs. Thus, this article focuses on the economic cost of implementing and maintaining CCBMPs for twelve diverse farms in Vermont. Specifically, three CCBMPs for Vermont are examined: cover cropping, management intensive rotational grazing (MIRG), and riparian buffer strips. Results of a yearlong farmer based data collection process indicate that the average cost for cover cropping is $129.24/acre, for MIRG is $79.82/acre, and for a tree based riparian buffer strip is $807.33/acre. We conclude that existing incentive payments for cover cropping and MIRG are below costs, likely resulting in under-adoption. The second article reports on a study which seeks to understand the factors influencing Vermont consumer perceptions of raw milk safety. While this article makes no assertion regarding the sustainability of raw milk, an association is established between the motivations for raw milk consumption and sustainable agriculture support. Vermonterâ??s appear to be continuing the trend of consuming raw milk at an increasing rate despite continued declarations from local and national public health officials that raw milk is too microbiologically dangerous to justify its consumption. Thus this study was designed to increase understanding of the factors driving consumer perceptions of raw milk safety. A conceptual model was developed to establish potential factors and related questions were incorporated into the 2014 Vermonter Poll. Resulting data were analyzed using a Probit regression analysis. We conclude that observable factors have the greatest influence on perceptions of raw milk safety. Specifically, perceived health benefits, presence of children in the household, and taste all influence perceptions of raw milk safety.

Water trading and water markets have been listed by leading climate change organizations as a possible tool for climate change adaptation. Experience with water trading exists in many places in the world, and three of the most well-known and widely-studied markets for water rights are found in the Western United States, Chile, and Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. While the body of literature on the performance of these markets is extensive, few papers relate the experiences of these three countries to adaptation as of yet. This thesis seeks to report on the outcomes of water markets in three cases with special attention to the following adaptation questions: Can water markets be a tool to address increasing variability in water supply; and what are the necessary environmental, political, and historic conditions for a market to be successful in allocating water resources under situations of scarcity? The experiences of these three cases yield the following conclusions about the use of water markets in climate change adaptation: the degree of existing infrastructure for water storage and transportation must be considered in the implementation of markets; water markets must be continually revised to internalize local third party effects; transaction costs must be minimized if markets are to serve increased short-term variability in water supply; sustainable outcomes are most readily met when markets approximate “cap-and-trade” programs; and the involvement of local institutions in market design will support market activity and the achievement of localized adaptation goals.

Este trabalho mede o impacto econômico que as mudanças climáticas projetadas para as regiões brasileiras podem ter até o final do século. Em particular, estima o impacto direto que essa mudança no padrão climático terá sobre a produtividade das principais culturas agrícolas do país e o impacto indireto dessas mudanças na economia brasileira como um todo. Ademais, constrói um índice de vulnerabilidade que permite detectar quais são as regiões brasileiras mais vulneráveis em termos de mudanças climáticas para o período estudado. Por fim, utiliza metodologia proposta na literatura a fim de tratar da incerteza dos resultados de maneira explícita. A análise é realizada com dados de soja, cana-de-açúcar, milho, feijão café e laranja entre 1994 e 2015. Essas culturas representam cerca de 82% área de cultivo agrícola do país. Além disso, o modelo inter-regional de EGC usa os dados mais recentes disponíveis em sua calibragem e capta a interdependência regional dos 27 Estados brasileiros. Por fim, o trabalho usa as projeções para o padrão regional de mudanças climáticas fornecido pelo 5º Assessment Report do IPCC (AR5). Os resultados apontam para um impacto econômico bastante heterogêneo entre as regiões brasileiras. Em termos diretos, as perdas agrícolas totais até o final do século variam de 9,7% a 55,6% do PIB brasileiro até o final do século. Sob o aspecto regional, os Estados que apresentam maiores perdas são São Paulo, Paraná e Minas Gerais em todos os cenários. Os impactos de 2ª ordem derivados dessas perdas de produtividade variam de R$2,2 trilhões à R$ 9,2 trilhões a depender dos cenários e se estão mais concentrados nos Estados da região Sul, Sudeste e Centro-Oeste.
This study measures the impact Brazil has to have until the end of the century. In particular, estimating the impact that does not refer to a climate model on the Brazilian economy as a whole. In addition, construct the index of vulnerability that could detect those that are the most vulnerable regions in terms of climatic changes for the studied period. Finally, in the critical analysis, in order to treat the uncertainty of the results explicitly. The analysis is performed with data on soybean, sugarcane, corn, beans and orange between 1994 and 2015. The 6 countries represent 86% of the country\'s agricultural area. In addition, the CGE interregional model uses the most recent data on its calibration and capture in a regional interdependence of the 27 Brazilian states. Finally, the paper uses as projections for the regional pattern of change control by the IPCC\'s 5th Assessment Report (AR5). The results point to a very heterogeneous economic impact among the Brazilian regions. In direct terms, as the successive exchange rates until the end of the year, they vary from 9.7% to 55.6% of Brazilian GDP by the end of the century. Under the regional aspect, the states of which are most important are São Paulo, Paraná and Minas Gerais in all scenarios. The second-highest ratings ranged from R $ 2.2 trillion to R $ 9.2 trillion from the scenarios and are more concentrated in the states of the South, Southeast and Midwest

O objetivo principal desta Tese foi desenvolver um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável (EGC) com especificação detalhada do uso da terra para o Brasil. Primeiramente, pelo lado da demanda, isso foi alcançado com a introdução de uma estrutura aninhada para o fator terra com possibilidades de substituição entre os usos do composto de lavouras, pecuária e floresta. No nível mais inferior desta estrutura, o composto de lavouras definiu as possibilidades de substituição entre diferentes usos de terras de lavouras. Em segundo, pelo lado da oferta, os usos da terra pelas atividades agrícolas foram definidos em termos físicos. Desta forma, modificações no retorno relativo da terra conduzem as variações do uso da terra de acordo com os diferentes usos possíveis. A estratégia de identificação dos usos da terra no modelo foi realizada atrelando os usos às atividades agrícolas correspondentes, mostrando-se distinta das estratégias encontradas na literatura. A capacidade analítica do modelo é ampla, podendo ser aplicado para investigar políticas que afetam direta ou indiretamente o uso da terra. Duas aplicações foram realizadas no contexto de análise de desenvolvimento do modelo. A primeira foi a mensuração dos efeitos econômicos de mudanças climáticas sobre o Brasil. Para a construção dos choques foi adotada uma estratégia de integração entre os resultados de um modelo econométrico do uso da terra, que forneceu a sensibilidade da alocação de terra entre os usos possíveis a mudanças climáticas, e o modelo de equilíbrio geral. A integração foi definida de forma que as mudanças climáticas produzissem deslocamentos na função de demanda por terra neste modelo. Para a construção dos choques foram consideradas projeções para temperatura e precipitação com base em dois cenários do IPCC, A2 e B2. Os resultados desta análise indicaram uma redução do PIB real nacional em ambos os cenários e nos intervalos de projeção. As atividades agrícolas foram as mais afetadas negativamente. A economia da maioria dos estados apresentou variação negativa do PIB real. A outra análise implementada foi a avaliação dos impactos regionais da mudança na produtividade da terra agrícola das lavouras entre 1996 e 2006. A mudança na produtividade agrícola produziu efeitos positivos sobre o PIB real nacional e da maioria dos estados.
The main objective of the dissertation was to develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with detailed specification of land use for Brazil. First, in the demand side, it was achieved with the introduction of a nested structure for land with substitution possibilities among the uses of crops composite, livestock and forestry. At the lowest level of this structure, the crops composite defined the substitution possibilities among different uses of crop land. Second, in the supply side, the land uses by agricultural activities have been defined in physical terms. Thus, changes on relative return of land drive the changes in land use according to the different possible uses. The strategy of identification of land uses in the model was peculiar wherein the land uses were linked to the corresponding agricultural activities, being distinct from the strategies found in the literature. The analytical capability of this model is broad and it can be applied to investigate policies that directly or indirectly affect land use. Two applications were made using the model. The first one was to measure the economic effects of climate change on Brazil. For the construction of the shocks was adopted a strategy of integration between the results of an econometric model of land use, which provided the sensitivity of the allocation of land among the possible uses to climate change, and the general equilibrium model. The integration was set so that the climate changes produce shifts in the demand function for land in this model. For the construction of the shocks were considered projections for temperature and precipitation based on two IPCC scenarios, A2 and B2. The results of this analysis indicated a reduction in national real GDP in both scenarios and projection intervals. Agricultural products were the most adversely affected. The economies of most states showed negative change in real GDP. A further analysis was implemented to evaluate the impact of the regional change in productivity of agricultural crops between 1996 and 2006. The change in agricultural productivity had positive effects on national real GDP and the majority of states.

This dissertation includes three essays on U.S. beef market. Each essay has looked at this market from a different point of view. The first essay investigates the price adjustment along the different levels of this market. The second essay discusses the impact of food safety incidents on export levels in this market. The third essay considers the environmental loading of U.S. beef market. A summary of each article is as follows. The first essay (chapter 2) analyzes price adjustment of the U.S. beef sector with a focus on the Great Recession. To this purpose, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and historical decomposition graphs are applied to monthly data. The results indicate that retail prices have lower speeds of adjustment than wholesale prices. Also, the magnitude of price adjustment in the presence of the Great Recession, as an exogenous shock, is different for each level of the U.S. beef market. It is concluded that, with respect to both the speed and magnitude of the price adjustment, the U.S. beef sector has an asymmetric price adjustment, pointing to the inefficiency of the U.S. beef supply chain. These results have welfare implications for U.S. beef consumers and producers. The primary objective of the second essay (chapter 3) is to quantify the impact of consumer awareness about beef safety on U.S. beef exports. To do that, an index is used to reflect consumer’s awareness about beef safety based on the publicized reports in the media. Quarterly panel data is applied to the top importing countries, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada for the period 2000-2016. Applying the gravity model, results show that a 0.8% reduction in U.S. beef exports arose from the foodborne-disease news. In addition, using impulse response functions derived from panel vector autoregressive (Panel VAR) estimation, results show that the negative impact of a shock in food safety news intensified after three quarters, and then diminished slowly over time. In order to regain consumers’ confidence and to compensate for the economic loss arising from a foodborne outbreak, bilateral cooperation among trade partners seems necessary. Investing in any scheme that minimizes the impact of food safety events, such as disease eradication programs, traceability systems, quality labeling, and third-party certification that conveys the safety message to consumers is suggested. The third essay (chapter 4) has two purposes. First, it quantifies the environmental loading of U.S. beef sector by calculating emission levels over the period 1970-2014. Beef cattle is one of the most emission-intensive sectors, which is responsible for 35% to 54% of total GHGs from livestock. Following International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline, this study identifies three sources of emissions, including enteric fermentation, manure management, and manure left on pastures. Second, it provides an understanding of consumption-environmental connection related to the beef industry using time series techniques. Finally, it is suggested that providing information to the public regarding livestock and climate change relationship would be beneficial. This knowledge might help to avoid the catastrophic consequences of climate change in the future.

This study estimated the economic impact of climate change on representative cash crop farms at selected sites in Québec and Ontario over the period 2010 to 2039 using a Mixed Integer Dynamic Linear Programming Model. Five climate scenarios (Hot & Dry, Hot & Humid, Median, Cold & Dry and Cold & Humid) and four weather conditions (the combination of with and without Carbon Dioxide (CO2) enhancement and water limitation) were selected and combined to form 20 different scenarios. Four major cash crops, i.e. corn, soybean, wheat, and barley, were considered using both reference and improved cultivars. Historical data on crop yields were used to validate the Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model which was used to project future yields. Economic variables, such as cost of production and crop prices were projected using Monte Carlo simulation with Crystal Ball Predictor. The results indicate that the optimal resource allocation, outputs, net returns, economic vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were dependent on the climate scenarios, weather conditions, types of crop and variety, as well as site. Water accessibility plays an essential role in farm profitability, especially coupled with atmospheric CO2 enhancement. Producers at all sites and scenarios were worse off under unfavorable weather condition when water was limited and CO2 enhancement was absent, especially in Ste-Martine where producers were predicted to have a number of years with successive financial losses. Different climate scenarios also had different impacts on farm management. The representative farm in Ste-Martine performs best under the Hot & Dry scenario if water was adequate, while in North Dundas, the Median or Cold scenarios were preferred. Technological development decreased farm financial vulnerability for all sites and scenarios. Institutional development, in terms of insurance programs and risk management tools, were also used to improve resilience.
Cette recherche mesure les impacts économiques des changements climatiques sur les principales grandes cultures produites au Québec. Pour ce faire, la recherche utilise un modèle d'optimisation linéaire dynamique unitaire mixte sur la période 2010-2039. Cinq scénarios climatiques (chaud et sec, chaud et humide, médian, froid et sec et froid et humides) ont été combinés à quatre conditions atmosphériques (avec et sans augmentation du CO2 et avec et sans diminution de la disponibilité de l'eau) ont été sélectionnés pour créer un total de 20 scénarios possibles. Quatre grandes cultures majeures (Maïs, soya, blé et orge) ont été considérées en utilisant un rendement de référence et un scénario d'amélioration des cultivars. Les données historiques sur le rendement des cultures ont été utilisées pour valider le Système de Support de Décision pour le Transfert Agro-Technologique (SSDTAT) qui estime le rendement futur. Les variables économiques comme le coût de production et le prix des grains ont été basés sur une simulation Monte Carlo avec un prédicteur boule de cristal. Les résultats indiquent que l'allocation optimale des ressources, des produits, des bénéfices nets, de la vulnérabilité et de la stratégie d'adaptation étaient dépendants du scenario de climat, des conditions atmosphériques, du type de cultures, de l'amélioration des variétés ainsi que du site. L'accessibilité de l'eau joue un rôle essentiel sur la profitabilité, tout spécialement lorsqu'elle est combinée à une augmentation du CO2 atmosphérique. Les producteurs de tous les sites et de tous les scénarios étaient désavantagés face à des conditions climatiques défavorables où l'eau était limitée et l'augmentation du CO2 absent. Cette situation s'est avérée très bien représentée au site de Ste-Martine où les estimations concluaient que les producteurs subissaient des pertes financières successives sous ce scénario. Les différents scenarios climatiques peuvent également avoir des impacts différents sur la gestion des entreprisses agricoles. Ainsi, les fermes sondées du site de Ste-Martine ont mieux performé sous le scénario chaud et sec et lorsque l'eau était adéquate. Par contre, le site de Dundas Nord s'est avéré plus productif sous le climat froid ou médian. De plus, l'amélioration technologique, c'est-à-dire l'amélioration des cultivars, peut diminuer la vulnérabilité des entreprises et en augmenter la résilience pour tous les sites, scénarios, conditions climatiques et cultures. Le développement institutionnel comme des programmes d'assurance récolte ou des outils de gestion du risque peuvent également être utilisés pour diminuer la vulnérabilité financière et ainsi augmenter la résilience des fermes sondées.

This paper measures the economic impact of climate change on agricultural land in the United States by estimating the effect of the presumably random year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation on agricultural profits. Using long-run climate change predictions from the Hadley 2 Model, the preferred estimates indicate that climate change will lead to a $1.1 billion (2002$) or 3.4% increase in annual profits. The 95% confidence interval ranges from –$1.8 billion to $4.0 billion and the impact is robust to a wide variety of specification checks, so large negative or positive effects are unlikely. There is considerable heterogeneity in the effect across the country with California’s predicted impact equal to –$2.4 billion (or nearly 50% of state agricultural profits). Further, the analysis indicates that the predicted increases in temperature and precipitation will have virtually no effect on yields among the most important crops. These crop yield findings suggest that the small effect on profits is not due to short-run price increases. The paper also implements the hedonic approach that is predominant in the previous literature. We conclude that this approach may be unreliable, because it produces estimates of the effect of climate change that are very sensitive to seemingly minor decisions about the appropriate control variables, sample and weighting. Overall, the findings contradict the popular view that climate change will have substantial negative welfare consequences for the US agricultural sector.
Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).
Greenstone acknowledges generous funding from the American Bar Foundation.

Master of Science
Department of Agricultural Economics
Andrew Barkley
This study examines the effect of extreme climatic conditions (drought, flood, and bushfires) on the livelihood of households in the Bawku West district of Ghana. The research identified the mechanisms with which households cope in such situations, and analyzed factors influencing the adoption of coping strategies for flood, coping strategies for drought, and coping strategies for bushfires. Data for the study were collected in selected villages across the district in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 extreme climatic events (a prolonged drought period followed by an erratic rainfall). A binary logit regression (BLR) model was then specified to estimate factors that influence the adoption of a given coping mechanisms. Results from the BLR model indicate that literacy level, membership with an FBO, household income, and location of households had positive and significant impacts on adaptation to drought. Similarly, source of seeds for planting, membership with an FBO, household income, and farm size had positive significant influence on adaptation to flood. Adaption to bushfire was positively influenced by radio ownership, seed source and income. The main effect of these climatic extreme events on households included destruction of crops, livestock and buildings; food and water shortage; poor yield or harvest and limited fields for livestock grazing. Therefore, government policies should be geared towards creating revenue generating channels and in strengthening institutions that provide access to farm credit, readily available improve seeds and extension. Additionally, policies that expedite information dissemination through radio and other public media will enhance households’ adaptive capacity.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Numerous studies indicate that the agricultural sector is physically and economically vulnerable to climate change. In order to determine possible impacts of projected future climates on the financial vulnerability of selective farming systems in South Africa, a case study methodology was applied. The integrated modelling framework consists of four modules, viz.: climate change impact modelling, dynamic linear programming (DLP) modelling, modelling interphases and financial vulnerability assessment modelling. Empirically downscaled climate data from five global climate models (GCMs) served as base for the integrated modelling. The APSIM crop model was applied to determine the impact of projected climates on crop yield for certain crops in the study. In order to determine the impact of projected climates on crops for which there are no crop models available, a unique modelling technique, Critical Crop Climate Threshold (CCCT) modelling, was developed and applied to model the impact of projected climate change on yield and quality of agricultural produce. Climate change impact modelling also takes into account the projected changes in irrigation water availability (ACRU hydrological model) and crop irrigation requirements (SAPWAT3 model) as a result of projected climate change. The model produces a set of valuable results, viz. projected changes in crop yield and quality, projected changes in availability of irrigation water, projected changes in crop irrigation needs, optimal combination of farming activities to maximize net cash flow, and a set of financial criteria to determine economic viability and financial feasibility of the farming system. A set of financial criteria; i.e. internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), cash flow ratio, highest debt ratio, and highest debt have been employed to measure the impact of climate change on the financial vulnerability of farming systems. Adaptation strategies to lessen the impact of climate change were identified for each case study through expert group discussions, and included in the integrated modelling as alternative options in the DLP model. This aims at addressing the gap in climate change research, i.e. integrated economic modelling at farm level; thereby making a contribution to integrated climate change modelling.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die fisiese sowel as ekonomiese kwesbaarheid van die landbousektor as gevolg van klimaatverandering word deur verskeie studies beklemtoon. ‘n Gevallestudie-benadering is gebruik ten einde die potensiële impak van klimaatsverandering op die finansiële kwesbaarheid van verskillende boerderystelsels te bepaal. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel bestaan uit vier modelleringsmodules, naamlik: klimaatsverandering, dinamiese liniêre programmering (DLP), interfases en finansiële-kwesbaarheidsontleding. Empiries afgeskaalde klimatologiese data van vyf verskillende klimaatmodelle dien as basis vir die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel. Die APSIM gewas-model word aangewend om die impak van klimaatsverandering op gewasse-opbrengs te bepaal. Vir sekere gewasse is daar egter nie modelle beskikbaaar nie en het gevolglik die ontwikkeling van ‘n nuwe model genoodsaak. Die Kritiese Gewasse Klimaatsdrempelwaarde (KGKD) modelleringstegniek is ontwikkel ten einde die impak van klimaatsverandering op die opbrengs en kwaliteit van gewasse te kwantifiseer. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel neem ook die verwagte verandering in besproeiingswaterbeskikbaarheid (ACRU-hidrologiemodel) en gewas-besproeiingsbehoeftes (SAPWAT3-model) as gevolg van klimaatsverandering in ag. Die model lewer waardevolle resultate op, naamlik: geprojekteerde veranderinge in gewasse-opbrengs en -kwaliteit, geprojekteerde verandering in beskikbaarheid van besproeiingswater en gewasse-besproeiingsbehoeftes, die optimale kombinering van boerdery-aktiwiteite om netto kontantvloei te maksimeer, asook ‘n stel finansiële resultate wat die impak van klimaatsverandering kwantifiseer. Die finansiële kriteria sluit in: interne opbrengskoers, netto huidige waarde, kontanvloeiverhouding, hoogste skuldverhouding en hoogste skuldvlak. Deur middel van deskundige-groepbesprekings is aanpassingstrategieë vir elk van die gevallestudies geïdentifiseer en by die geïntegreerde model ingesluit as alternatiewe opsies in die DLP-model. Die studie poog om die gaping in die huidige klimaatsveranderingnavorsing met betekking tot ‘n geïntegreerde ekonomiese model op plaasvlak aan te spreek en sodoende ‘n bydrae tot geïntegreerde klimaatveranderingmodellering te maak.

La presente tesis doctoral muestra evidencias claras de que la variabilidad climática y la energía fueron factores relevantes en la Revolución Agrícola, así como en el mercado de trabajo y la economía inglesa en general del siglo XVII.

This dissertation expands upon the definition of eco-visualization artwork. EV was originally defined in 2006 by Tiffany Holmes as a way to display the real time consumption statistics of key environmental resources for the goal of promoting ecological literacy. I assert that the final forms of EV artworks are not necessarily dependent on technology, and can differ in terms of media used, in that they can be sculptural, video-based, or static two-dimensional forms that communicate interpreted environmental information. There are two main categories of EV: one that is predominantly screen-based and another that employs a variety of modes of representation to visualize environmental information. EVs are political acts, situated in a charged climate of rising awareness, operating within the context of environmentalism and sustainability. I discuss a variety of EV works within the frame of ecopsychology, including EcoArtTech’s Eclipse and Keith Deverell’s Building Run; Andrea Polli’s Cloud Car and Particle Falls; Nathalie Miebach’s series, The Sandy Rides; and Natalie Jeremijenko’s Mussel Choir. The range of EV works provided models for my creative project, Sculpting Corn Production, and a foundation from which I developed a creative methodology. Working to defeat my experience of solastalgia, Sculpting Corn Production is a series of discrete paper sculptures focusing on American industrial corn farming. This EV also functions as a way for me to understand our devastated monoculture landscapes and the politics, economics, and related areas of ecology of our food production.

First Essay: We exploit temporally disaggregated data on weather anomalies andtemporary migration to examine the effect of the former on the latter, and the ef-fectiveness of migration as a coping mechanism to maintain consumption in the faceof adverse weather conditions. We construct a continuous measure of migration thatincreases both with the number of people leaving, and with the length of time theystay away. Our results show that, while weather anomalies do trigger temporary mi-gration, they only do so when they occur before or rather early in the growing season.This suggests that households have a limited ability to respond to unexpected shockswhen they occur late in the season. We also find that weather anomalies can affectmigration patterns several months after they take place and discuss possible mecha-nisms. We find that, conditional on these temporal patterns, households lacking onlabor force endowment and social networks are particularly limited in their abilityto use migration as a coping mechanism and remain, consequently, more vulnerableto shocks. Our analysis reveals how temporal aggregation of weather shocks, widelyimplemented in previous studies, can obscure substantial heterogeneity in migrationresponse, as well as their ability to mitigate adverse impacts.

Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns from climate change could be a major risk to crop yields. Producers have technology options for mitigating climate change risk. One technology is Drainage Water Recycling (DWR), which involves diverting subsurface water to ponds where it is stored for later irrigation. Crop insurance could interfere with DWR by providing producers with another option to manage climate-change risk. It is hypothesized there exists a spillover effect from crop insurance, which inhibits climate-change technology adoption. The analysis investigates the DWR investment decision from a producer’s viewpoint using real options analysis. The analysis considers two policy regimes: one where crop insurance is not in effect and one where crop insurance is in effect. In a Poisson jump process, it further considers the insurance effect of producer’s returns jumping when facing a crop disaster. Results indicate crop insurance has a minimal effect on DWR adoption, and in many scenarios, the DWR adoption thresholds are too large for a producer to invest for climate-change mitigation. The benchmark DWR adoption scenario requires a revenue of more than double the conventional revenue of $649 per acre before a producer would consider adopting.

This dissertation analyzes the impact of climate, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on crop yields and grain transportation. The analysis of crop yields endeavors to advance the literature by statistically estimating the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on observed crop yields. This is done using an econometric model estimated over pooled historical data for 1950-2009 and data from the free air CO2 enrichment experiments. The main findings are: 1) yields of soybeans, cotton, and wheat directly respond to the elevated CO2, while yields of corn and sorghum do not; 2) the effect of crop technological progress on mean yields is non-linear; 3) ignoring atmospheric CO2 in an econometric model of crop yield likely leads to overestimates of the pure effects of climate change and technological progress on crop yields; and 4) average climate conditions and climate variability contribute in a statistically significant way to average crop yields and their variability. To examine climate change impacts on grain transportation flows, this study employs two modeling systems, a U.S. agricultural sector model and an international grain transportation model, with linked inputs/outputs. The main findings are that under climate change: 1) the excess supply of corn and soybeans generally increases in Northern U.S. regions, while it declines in Central and Southern regions; 2) the Corn Belt, the largest producer of corn in the U.S., is anticipated to ship less corn; 3) the importance of lower Mississippi River ports, the largest current destination for U.S. grain exports, diminishes under the climate change cases, whereas the role of Pacific Northwest ports, Great Lakes ports, and Atlantic ports is projected to increase; 4) the demand for grain shipment via rail and truck rises, while demand for barge transport drops.

This dissertation examines the impact of the expansion of renewable technology at both national and local level, through distinct essays. At the national level, the first paper analyzes the effects of economic and distributional impacts of climate mitigation policy, in the context of a developing country, to understand the interactions between the energy system and the macroeconomic environment. In the case of the local level, the second paper uses synthetic control method, to estimate the effect at the county level of utility scale wind in the development indicators for two counties in the U.S.

The first paper assesses the economic and distributional impacts of Nicaragua’s commitments to limit future greenhouse gas emissions in the context of the Paris Agreement, known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The analysis relies on two distinct models. The first is a top-down approach based on a single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, known as the Mitigation, Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium (MANAGE) Model. The second is a bottom-up approach based on the Open-Source energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), which is technology rich energy model. The combined model is calibrated to an updated social accounting matrix for Nicaragua, which disaggregates households into 20 representative types: 10 rural and 10 urban households. For the household disaggregation we have used information from the 2014 Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) for Nicaragua. Our analysis focuses on the distributional impacts of meeting the NDCs as well as additional scenarios—in a dynamic framework as the MANAGE model is a (recursive) dynamic model. The results show that a carbon tax has greatest potential for reduction in emissions, with modest impact in macro variables. An expansion of the renewable sources in the electricity matrix also leads to significant reduction in emissions. Only a carbon tax achieves a reduction in emissions consistent with keeping global warming below 2°C. Nicaragua’s NDC alone would not achieve the target and mitigation instruments are needed. An expansion of generation from renewable sources, does not lead to a scenario consistent with a 2°C pathway.

The second paper measures the impact of wind generation on county level outcomes through the use of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). SCM avoids the pitfalls of other methods such as input-output models and project level case studies that do not provide county level estimates. We find that the local per capita income effect of utility wind scale is 6 percent (translate into an increase of $1,511 in per capita income for 2019) for Benton County and 8 percent for White county in Indiana (an increase of $2,100 in per capita income for 2019). The per capita income effect measures the average impact, which includes the gains in rents from capital, land, and labor from wind power in these counties. Moreover, we find that most of the rents from wind power accrue to the owners of capital and labor. Even assuming the lowest projections of electricity prices and the highest reasonable cost we still find a 10 percent minimum rate of return to capital for both Benton and White counties’ wind power generators. Furthermore, we find that there are excess rents that could be taxed and redistributed at the county, state, or federal level without disincentivizing investment in wind power.

This thesis explores Pioneer Valley farmers and their agricultural practices, knowledge and resources as they relate to climate change. Adaptive capacity is used throughout scientific literature, and often includes numerous components; for this thesis the measurement of farmers’ adaptive capacity would be assessed according to only three components: knowledge, past experiences and use of resources. Climate change and its impacts on agriculture have been studied but what is unclear is how prepared farmers are to deal with these impacts. Through literature review, survey development and recorded interviews, data was then analyzed both for quantitative and qualitative results to understand farmer’s adaptive capacity. Most Pioneer Valley farmers realized changes to their farming practices over 5 to 10 years but were not in consensus of the cause and if this could just be due to climate change. Despite belief in climate change, most were willing to accept assistance to climate change adaptation, even if not knowing what these adaptation strategies would include. As a pilot study, numerous considerations have been included for future work on this topic to reduce assumptions and improve results accuracy. The study was too small to translate to the greater Pioneer Valley for results, but the method is important and applicable in future research and should be examined further to maintain the integrity of the agriculture sector.

Economics is about the management of scare resources. In agricultural production, water stress and excess heat are the main constraints. The three essays of this dissertation try to improve our understandings of how climate and water resources interact with agricultural markets, and how global changes in agricultural markets may affect water resources. I construct empirical and simulation models to explain the interplay between agriculture and water. These models integrate economic theories with environmental sciences to analyze the hydroclimatic and economic information at different geospatial scales in a changing climate.

In the first essay, I illustrate how irrigation, as a potential adaptation channel, can reduce the volatility of crop yields and year-on-year variations caused by the projected heat stress. This work includes estimation of yield response to climate variation for irrigated and rainfed crops; and global projections of change in the mean and the variation of crop yields. I use my estimated response function to project future yield variations using NASA NEX-GDDP climate data. I show that the impact of heat stress on rainfed corn is around twice as big as irrigated practices.

In the second essay, I establish a framework for estimating the value of soil moisture for rainfed production. This framework is an extension of Schlenker and Roberts (2009) model enabled by the detailed soil moisture information available from the Water Balance Model (WBM). An important contribution is the introduction of a cumulative yield production function considering the daily interaction of heat and soil moisture. I use this framework to investigate the impacts of soil moisture on corn yields in the United States. However, this framework can be used for the valuation of other ecosystem services at daily basis.

In the third essay, I have constructed a model that explains how the global market economy interacts with local land and water resources. This helps us to broaden the scope of global to local analysis of systems sustainability. I have employed SIMPLE-G-W (a Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment- Gridded Water version) to explain the reallocation across regions. The model is based on a cost minimization behavior for irrigation technology choice for around 75,000 grid cells in the United States constrained by water rights, water availability, and quasi-irreversibility of groundwater supply. This model is used to examine the vulnerability of US land and water resources from global changes.

碩士
國立成功大學
水利及海洋工程學系
107
A drought is a natural disaster of not receiving rain or snow over a period of time, resulting in prolonged shortages in the water supply, whether atmospheric, surface water or groundwater. A quantitative estimate of the probability of occurrence and the predicted severity, duration of drought is important for the development of strategies in the water resources management. This study aims to develop a streamflow drought severity – duration- frequency (SDF) curves to estimate the long-term financial impact due to lack of certainties in climate change and agriculture projections. Severity was identified as the total water deficit volume to target threshold for a given drought duration. Furthermore, this study compared the SDF curves of two threshold level methods: fixed and monthly as well as evaluate the impacts of climate change on the SDF curves for the fixed threshold level. The scenarios climate is focused on AR4 (A2, AB1, B2) from the general climate model. Time series of the annual maxima values of duration and volume deficit indicated a similar trend of increasing and decreasing in different threshold level. The fixed threshold level is the 70th percentile value (Q70) of the flow duration curves (FDC) which is compiled using all available daily streamflow. The monthly threshold level in this study is the monthly varying Q70 values that was obtained from antecedent 12 months streamflow. SDF curves were prepared and fitting statistical distribution to each one. The approach continues with the impacts of climate change on the SDF curves for the fixed threshold level. Likewise, the methodology defines a water tariff price delimited by the drought duration and calculate the revenue loss scenarios in agriculture. As a case study, the approach is applied to the Kaoping River in Taiwan, the main water supply source for agriculture, industry but this study concentrates on the profit loss in agriculture. The results show that the SDF curves from the fixed threshold level increase value of the volume deficit than the monthly threshold level in each period. Drought deficit volume increasing rate was different in each class of duration–interval. Similarly, the SDF curves were varied under climate change, the duration and severities from GFDL_CM2_1 GCMs of each scenario is higher than baseline and increasing of duration resulted to the increased value of the volume deficit with a non–linear trend. Additionally, the severity-duration-frequency- profit loss under the historical data is resulted to estimate the baseline scenario of damage cost in the water utility company. In addition, the anticipated profit loss the long term would serve as the initial estimate for financial contingency plan or community contingency funds. In general, the development of SDF curves can be proposed as a planning tool to mitigating and real-time management of drought effects in water resource management.

The primary aim of my research was to identify the impacts and adaptation options of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. The following objectives were identified: To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province , To assess the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province and To identify adaptation measures that reduces the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. A representative sample of 300 farmers aged 16- 65+ years (46 percent males and 54 percent females) participated in the study. The study involved Sekhukhune and Capricorn districts, with 56 percent farmers in Capricorn and 44 percent in Sekhukhune district. The following 11 local municipalities were visited: Elias Motsoaledi, Makhuduthamaga, Fetakgomo, Ephraim Mogale, Tubatse, Lepelle Nkumpi, Blouberg, Aganang, Polokwane, and Molemole. The Limpopo province is one of the poorest provinces in the country, characterized by high unemployment rate, poverty and lack of access to a range of resources that frustrate majority of people ability to secure their livelihoods. In this study the province's economic, biological and physical environment were highlighted. The study further covers the province, s farming enterprises, systems, categories, infrastructure as well as other constraints that maybe facing the emerging farmer in the province. It is assumed that the majority of farmers in both the Capricorn and Sekhukhune districts are using different coping and adaptation strategies in order to increase their crop yields. Literature studies show that climate variability and change adaptation strategies vary from area to area due to agro ecological zones and the harshness of the effects of climate variability and change. It has also been noted that climate change is fast pushing the poorest and most marginalized communities beyond their capacity to respond. This study draws on lessons learned, experiences, and other existing research on climate change impacts and adaptation across the globe. It sets out what is needed to enable people living in poverty to adapt to climate change, and a range of interventions that are available across climate - sensitive sectors. The study has provided a literature review of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. In fact, it has documented some of the likely impacts of climate change based on International, continental, regional, national and provincial agricultural sector. The study highlighted the impact of climate change also on various climate - sensitive sectors including understanding water resources, forestry, natural ecosystem human health, infrastructure and coastal zones. This research also confirmed that being a full time farmer, gender, information on climate change, information received through extension services and adaptation to climate change are some of the important determinants of agricultural production, food scarcity and unemployment. A worrying situation is reviewed globally in this study and it can be concluded that climate variability and change is affecting every sector in society and it needs urgent attention. Statistics was used to determine climate variability and change impact on agricultural production. Results indicate that farmers are aware that Limpopo province is getting warmer and drier with increased frequency of droughts, changes in the timing of rains, observed trends oftemperature and precipitation. The study also presented perceived adaptation strategies used by farmers in Limpopo province. Some of their perceived adaptation strategies included: (a) Soil management strategies, (b) Water management strategies and (c) Others like use of subsidies and use of insurance. Other important adaptation options being used by farmers were also discussed in this study including different adaptation measures against colds, heat, frost, abnormal wind, hail, lack of extension support, nematodes, insecticides, worms, temperature and rainfall. The results of this study are potentially valuable to the agricultural sector considering the threats that climate change poses across climate sensitive sectors.
Environmental Sciences
D. Phil. (Environmental Management)

The present research consists of the current research on methodologies to approach the measurement of sustainable development in different global contexts. Cities will be taking over an essential role in the Development towards a climate-neutral, resilient future. By 2030, nearly 5 billion humans will be living in cities, a vast majority of them in today's emerging and developing countries. This increase in importance of urban space is accompanied by rapid technological and societal change. The importance of this field has sparked a significant number of initiatives and studies worldwide, intending to gather and organize data related to Development and sustainability. From the scientific point of view, proven methods and models for measuring the efficiency of cities in terms of sustainability are lacking. Throughout the thesis, the focus is being set on the Morgenstadt approach, developed by the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany. The purpose of the thesis is to identify the weaknesses that can or can not be identified through the standard indicator systems. Furthermore, the aim is to define the methodologies strengths and weaknesses in the context of the upcoming international climate initiative. The methodology is going to be applied in Piura, Peru, in order to assess a southern American cities readiness while considering a city as a complex system, impossible to be predicted or foreseen.
O estudo apresentado é composto pela investigação actual de metodologias que medem o crescimento sustentável em diferentes contextos globais. As cidades terão um papel essencial no Desenvolvimento para um futuro resiliente e neutro a nível climático. Em 2030, aproximadamente 5 biliões de humanos estarão a viver nas cidades, sendo que uma grande maioria deles estará a habitar nos que são hoje considerados os países desenvolvidos e emergentes. Este crescimento na importância do espaço urbano é acompanhado pelas rápidas mudanças tecnológicas e sociais. A importância deste campo despoletou um número significativo de iniciativas e estudos por todo o mundo, com a intenção de reunir e organizar dados relativos ao Desenvolvimento e sustentabilidade. Do ponto de vista científico, são escassos os métodos e modelos que possam quantificar a eficácia das cidades ao nível da sustentabilidade. Ao longo da tese, o foco predomina na abordagem do método desenvolvido no âmbito de Morgenstadt, desenvolvida pelo Instituto Fraunhofer na Alemanha. O objectivo da tese é a identificação das fraquezas que podem ou não ser reconhecidas através dos sistemas indicativos standard. Adicionalmente, pretende-se identificar metodologias fortes e fracas no contexto da próxima iniciativa climática internacional. A metodologia apresentada será aplicada em Piura, Peru, de forma a avaliar a prontidão de uma cidade Sul-Americana, tendo em conta o seu complexo sistema enquanto cidade.

To achieve economic development, regional authorities have to address issues that relate to climate change, efficient information flow in the market place, and health care. This dissertation presents three essays on current issues of concern to economic development in Africa. Climate change is examined in terms of its effects on the Egyptian agricultural sector; transmission of world price to small scale growers is examined in Uganda; and the benefits of insecticide-treated bed nets use is examined in Africa. In essay I, to address the impact of climate change on the Egyptian agricultural sector under alternative population growth rates, water use and crop yield assumption; the Egyptian Agricultural Sector Model (EASM) is updated and expanded to improve hydrological modeling and used to portray agricultural activity and hydrological flow. The results indicate that climate change will cause damages (costs) to the Egyptian agricultural sector and these will increase over time. Egypt may reduce these future damages by controlling its population growth rate and using water conservation strategies. In essay II, I use vector autoregressive analysis to examine the transmissions of price information to Uganda coffee growers; using monthly coffee price data on retail, futures, farmgate and world prices from 1994 to 2010. Improved transmission of world prices to farmers may increase their decision making to obtain a better market price. Directed acyclic graphs reveal that there is a causal flow of information from the indicator price to the London futures price to the Uganda grower?s price in contemporaneous time. Forecast error variance decomposition indicates that at moving ahead 12 months, the uncertainty in Uganda grower price is attributable to the indicator price (world spot price), own price (farmgate), London future and Spain retail price in rank order. In essay III, the cost of malaria in children under five years and the use of insecticide treated bed nets is examined in the context of 18 countries in Africa. I examine the direct and indirect cost of malaria in children under five years and the benefit of investing in insecticide treated mosquito nets as a preventative strategy in 18 African countries. The results indicate that the use of mosquito treated nets reduces the number of malaria cases in children; and this can induce 0.5% reduction in outpatient treatment costs, 11% reduction in inpatient treatment costs, 11% reduction in productivity loss, and 15% reduction in disability adjusted life years (DALY) annually.

M.Sc.(Geography)
This study aimed at examining the social and economic impact of rural irrigation schemes with a particular focus on the Lower Gweru Irrigation scheme. The general objective of this study was to assess if rural irrigation schemes can act as livelihood security assets in transforming rural livelihoods, reduce poverty and attain food security in light of climate change. Results are based on findings from self-administered questionnaires directed at farmers and irrigation stakeholders, and face to face interviews involving farmers and stakeholders. Using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, Microsoft excel and Health 24 web BMI calculator it was concluded that; Lower Gweru schemes, is a source of livelihood security securing food security, reduce poverty and creates rural employment. Regardless of various challenges faced by rural irrigation farmers, irrigations act as poverty and climate change buffers, providing an opportunity for communities to raise their Human Development Index and attain sustainable development.
Department of Geography

The pressing global demand to transform to a low-carbon business community, which is required by the urgency of mitigating climate change, significantly alters the operating procedures for carbon emitters and carbon revenue generators alike. Although agricultural activities are not considered as heavy carbon emission source, the increased public focus on climate change has catapulted the exploitation of sustainable agricultural land management mitigating strategies as intervention by the sector. Additionally, the focus on market-based mechanism to address climate change, which has led to the evolution of cap-and-trade schemes, makes the agricultural sector become a source of low-cost carbon offsets. However, the fact that cap-and-trade schemes in the agricultural sector are voluntary has resulted into not only very diverse farming practices but also diverse accounting practices. The consequences of the diversity practices are that, the impacts on financial performance and position are not comparable. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to investigate the recognition, measurement and disclosure for cap-and-trade schemes in the agricultural sectors This study was conducted through literature reviews and empirical test. A qualitative research approach utilising constructivist methodology was employed. Primary data was collected in Kenya by administering three sets of semi-structured questionnaires to drafters of financial statements, loan officers and financial consultants. Secondary data involved content analysis of financial statements and reports of listed entities across the globe. It was established that proper accounting for cap-and-trade schemes adaptation activities is critical to the success of an entity’s environmental portfolio. Additionally, a model for valuing an organisation's carbon capture potential as suggested by this study enables entities to better report the impact of the adaptation activities on the financial performance and financial position. The outcome of this study enables entities to integrate the carbon capture potential on an entity sustainability reporting framework.
Colleges of Economic and Management Sciences
D. Phil. (Accounting Science)