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Bajželj, Bojana. "Land use, food security and climate change." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2015. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.709356.
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Lawrence, Peter. "Climate impacts of Australian land cover change /." [St. Lucia, Qld.], 2004. http://www.library.uq.edu.au/pdfserve.php?image=thesisabs/absthe18055.pdf.
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Mendoza, Ponce Alma Virgen. "Vulnerability of biodiversity to land use change and climate change in Mexico." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/21701.
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Biodiversity in Mexico is threatened by Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and Climate Change (CC). Identifying what sites will be most vulnerable to these threats can help to prioritise conservation, mitigation and adaptation strategies and target limited resources. Therefore, the aims of this study are 1) to identify the most vulnerable sites to LUCCs under different socio-economic and CC scenarios, and 2) to assess the vulnerability of endemic and threatened vertebrate species to establish prioritization strategies for biodiversity conservation. Spatially explicit socio-economic scenarios were created at national and subnational level (Chapter 3). National LUCC models were then developed using the DINAMICA EGO software (Chapter 4). These models were run for three future time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) and two contrasting future climate and socio-economic scenarios to determine biodiversity vulnerability (Chapter 5). Vulnerability was estimated by quantifying the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to LUCC and CC. This framework integrates national information about the priority sites of biodiversity conservation and their future extent of natural covers under future socio-economic and climate conditions. Finally, the vulnerability framework was also applied in a regional case-study in three municipalities of southern Mexico (Chapter 6). Results reveal that temperate forest is the most vulnerable ecosystem type in Mexico, followed by natural grasslands and tropical evergreen forests. Agriculture is the driver of this threat, which is projected to expand to feed an increasing population under dryer climatic conditions. More than 40% of endemic and endangered mammals are in places ranking from medium to extremely high vulnerability, followed by the 28% of the amphibians, 25% and 23% for reptiles and birds, respectively. These vertebrates are principally distributed on temperate forests and tropical dry forests. In the regional scale, rain-fed agriculture (RfA) and anthropogenic grasslands are the principal LUCC drivers, threatening 31 species of endangered vertebrates. A local strategy for creating corridors between patches close to rivers from the south to the north of one municipality is supported as conservation priority for the regional biodiversity. This research presents a novel approach for prioritising conservation strategies in highly biodiverse countries using readily available data sources, demonstrated at different spatial and temporal scales.
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Peckett, Haley Rose. "Land use and climate change in Miami-Dade County." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/50113.
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Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2009.Includes bibliographical references (p. 69-77).
Miami-Dade County, Florida, was one of the earliest jurisdictions to adopt a climate change plan in 1993. Land use features prominently in this plan as a means to reduce greenhouse gases through development patterns that allow people to lower their Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). Travel data show that average per capita VMT for the Miami area increased approximately 24% between 1993 and 2005, signifying that the land-use policies are not meeting their goal of VMT reduction. One apparent explanation is that land-use policies are not adequately implemented and enforced. The Board of County Commissioners is the most powerful decision-making body and holds responsibility for land-use policy enforcement. The Board is constrained by a governmental structure in which each commissioner is accountable only to residents of his or her district. Commissioners make decisions based on immediate benefits for their districts with little incentive to consider the long-term issues of land use and climate change. The Urban Development Boundary illustrates how the competing agendas of economic development and affordable housing compel commissioners to approve developments that contradict existing land-use policies. The financial crisis of the Miami-Dade Transit system was exacerbated by district-based conflicts and limited commissioner accountability. The district-based structure evolved from a history of racial and ethnic under-representation, which complicates the introduction of structural change.
(cont.) Instead, the County should introduce incentives that encourage commissioners to include long-term County needs in policy enforcement decisions. Recommendations include: * Strengthened land-use advisory board * Transparent calculation of the long-term impacts of proposed developments * Temporary moratorium on 2011 UDB applications * Strategic funding allocation to promote smart growth land use.
by Haley Rose Peckett.
M.C.P.
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Avise, Jeremy Charles. "Global change and regional air quality impacts of climate, land-use, and emissions changes /." Online access for everyone, 2007. http://www.dissertations.wsu.edu/Dissertations/Fall2007/J_Avise_120907.pdf.
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Hackett, William. "Changing Land Use, Climate, and Hydrology in the Winooski." ScholarWorks @ UVM, 2009. http://scholarworks.uvm.edu/graddis/99.
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This study analyzes temporal trends and periodicity in seventy years of publicly available stream discharge and climate data for the Winooski River Basin of northern Vermont as well as lake level data for adjacent Lake Champlain. We also use random sampling and manual, point-based classification of recent and historical aerial imagery to quantify land use change over the past seventy years in the 2,704 km2 Winooski River Basin of northern Vermont. We find a general increase in annual precipitation, discharge, and mean lake level with time in the basin; discharge increases 18% over the period of record while precipitation increases by 14%. Over the last 70 years, mean annual temperature has increased at the Burlington Vermont station by 0.78 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit). Four sets of aerial photographs, taken at intervals of 12 to 29 years between 1937 and 2003 at thirty randomly selected sites, demonstrate that actively cleared land area has decreased by 14%, while forested land and impervious surfaces increased by 10% and 5%, respectively. Spectral analysis of precipitation, discharge and lake level data show a ~7.6 year periodicity, which is in phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); higher than average precipitation and discharge are most likely when the NAO is in a positive mode. The NAO relationship demonstrates that discharge is largely controlled by precipitation; anthropogenic changing climate and changing land use over the past 70 years appear to have subtly changed the seasonality of discharge and caused an increase in base flow.
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Zhang, Wenxin. "Long-term Trend of Evapotranspiration in Sweden Affected by Climate Change or Land-use Change." Thesis, KTH, Biogeofysik, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-96292.
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Evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential component of water cycle as it is an interlinkage between atmosphere, vegetation and soil surface in terms of energy and water balance. However, whether potential ET has the same tendency to change as actual ET and how ET trend (based on the difference between precipitation and runoff) is directly driven by dominant meteorological factors alone or combined with ecosystem‘s feedbacks to climate change (like land-use change) is still under the discussion. In this report, five ET parameterizations within two rainfall-runoff models [Coupled Heat and Mass Transfer Model (CoupModel) and Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV)] have been set up based on six subcatchments of Sweden. The scenario derived from CoupModel shows that the trend of ET is affected by the change of land-use, where soil evaporation tends to shift to transpiration and interception evaporation. However, HBV model produces the other scenario: the trend of ET is merely the consequence of meteorological factors. Increased ET is contributed by increased interception evaporation due to the increased precipitation. After identifying the time split of changing ET trends, a dynamic simulation constructed both from HBV and CoupModel indicate that the increased total ET is primarily from increased ET in winter time. More and more interceptive water loss and transpiration resulted from land-use change due to more vegetation. On the other hand, land-use change is also a feed back to climate change. Transpiration controlled by the mechanism of stomata and water uptake controlled by reduction of soil moisture is highly related to variations of climatic conditions.
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Acosta, Navarro Juan Camilo. "Anthropogenic influence on climate through changes in aerosol emissions from air pollution and land use change." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-137077.
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Particulate matter suspended in air (i.e. aerosol particles) exerts a substantial influence on the climate of our planet and is responsible for causing severe public health problems in many regions across the globe. Human activities have altered the natural and anthropogenic emissions of aerosol particles through direct emissions or indirectly by modifying natural sources. The climate effects of the latter have been largely overlooked. Humans have dramatically altered the land surface of the planet causing changes in natural aerosol emissions from vegetated areas. Regulation on anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions have the potential to affect the climate on regional to global scales. Furthermore, the regional climate effects of aerosol particles could potentially be very different than the ones caused by other climate forcers (e.g. well mixed greenhouse gases). The main objective of this work was to investigate the climatic effects of land use and air pollution via aerosol changes. Using numerical model simulations it was found that land use changes in the past millennium have likely caused a positive radiative forcing via aerosol climate interactions. The forcing is an order of magnitude smaller and has an opposite sign than the radiative forcing caused by direct aerosol emissions changes from other human activities. The results also indicate that future reductions of fossil fuel aerosols via air quality regulations may lead to an additional warming of the planet by mid-21st century and could also cause an important Arctic amplification of the warming. In addition, the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone and the Asian monsoon appear to be sensitive to aerosol emission reductions from air quality regulations. For these reasons, climate mitigation policies should take into consideration aerosol air pollution, which has not received sufficient attention in the past.
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Gottschalk, Pia. "Modelling soil organic carbon dynamics under land use and climate change." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2012. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=186643.
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Soil organic matter (SOM) models simplify the complex turnover dynamics of organic matter in soils. Stabilization mechanisms are currently thought to play a dominant role in SOM turnover but they are not explicitly accounted for in most SOM models. One study addresses the implementation of an approach to account for the stabilization mechanism of physical protection in the SOC model RothC using 13C abundance measurements in conjunction with soil size fractionation data. SOM models are increasingly used to support policy decisions on carbon (C) mitigation and credibility of model predictions move into the focus of research. A site scale, Monte Carlo based model uncertainty analysis of a SOM model was carried out. One of the major results was that uncertainty and factor importance depend on the combination of external drivers. A different approach was used with the SOM ECOSSE model to estimate uncertainties in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes of mineral and organic soils in Scotland. The average statistical model error from site scale evaluation was transferred to regional scale uncertainty to give an indication of the uncertainty in national scale predictions. National scale simulations were carried out subsequently to quantify SOC stock changes differentiating between organic and mineral soils and land use change types. Organic soils turned out to be most vulnerable to SOC losses in the last decades. The final study of this thesis emplyed the RothC model to simulate possible futures of global SOC stock changes under land use change and ten different climate scenarios. Land use change turned out to be of minor importance. The regionally balance between soil C inputs and decomposition leads to a diverse map of regional C gains and losses with different degrees of certainty.
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Ferreira, Marcelo Dias Paes. "Climate change, farm size and land use in Brazilian Legal Amazon." Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 2015. http://www.locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/6632.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
A Amazônia Legal é estratégica para os indicadores ambientais e sociais brasileiros e o padrão do uso da terra nessa região influencia tais indicadores. Nesse sentido, este trabalho buscou avaliar como as mudanças climáticas e o tamanho das propriedades afetaram o padrão do uso do solo nessa região. Para responder esses questionamentos, foram desenvolvidos dois capítulos: Climate Change, Climate Risk and Land Use in Brazilian Legal Amazon e Farm Size and Land Use Efficiency in Brazilian Legal Amazon. No primeiro capítulo foi desenvolvido um modelo de uso da terra incorporando aversão ao risco. Os resultados indicam que a quantidade de chuvas, variância interanual da temperatura e variância interanual das chuvas afetam a decisão de uso da terra na Amazônia Legal. Constatou-se que há evidência de aversão ao risco por parte dos produtores rurais na região e que o estabelecimento de pastagens está associado positivamente com risco pluviométrico. Simulações realizadas a partir de projeções climáticas indicam que a estratégia de adaptação por parte dos produtores é a conversão de áreas de lavouras e florestas em pastagens. Dependendo do aumento da variabilidade climática e do horizonte de tempo, a taxa de desmatamento varia de 10% a 16% da área total de florestas nas propriedades rurais. No segundo capítulo, foi medida a eficiência do uso da terra e a eficiência técnica por meio da Análise de Fronteira Estocástica (Stochastic Frontier Analysis). Foi verificado que o tamanho das propriedades na Amazônia Legal está negativamente associado às medidas de produtividade. Assim, propriedades maiores apresentam menor produção e desperdiçam mais terra do que propriedades menores.
Brazilian Legal Amazon is strategic to Brazilian environmental and social achievements and land use plays an important role in this context. This study aimed to assess how climate change and farm size would affect the land use pattern in this region. We developed two chapters to address these issues: Climate Change, Climate Risk and Land Use in Brazilian Legal Amazon and Farm Size and Land Use Efficiency in Brazilian Legal Amazon. In the first chapter, we set up a risk-averse land use model. Results pointed out that the amount of rainfall, inter-annual temperature variance and inter-annual rainfall variance are associated to land use allocation in Brazilian Legal Amazon. There is evidence that farmers are risk-averse and the establishment of pasture is positively associated to rainfall risk. Our climate change simulations indicate that there will be re-allocation of land from forest and crops to pasture. Depending on the increase in climate variability and time horizon, deforestation ratios range between 10% to 16% of total forest areas. In the second chapter, we measure land use efficiency and technical efficiency by Stochastic Frontier Analysis. We found that farm size is negatively associated to the productivity measures. Therefore, larger farms are less productive and waste more land than smaller farms.
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Baran, Ayden Alexander. "Integrated Model-Based Impact Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use Change on the Occoquan Watershed." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/99706.
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Forecasted changes to climate and land use were used to model variations in the streamflow characteristics of Occoquan watershed and water quality in the Occoquan reservoir. The combination of these two driving forces has created four themes and an integrated complexly-linked watershed-reservoir model was used to run the simulations. Two emission scenarios from the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), along with four General Circulation Models (GCMs) by using two statistical downscaling methods, were applied to drive the Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) and CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) in two future time periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100). Incorporation of these factors yielded 68 simulation models which were compared with historical streamflow and water quality data from the late 20th century. Climate change is projected to increase surface air temperature and precipitation depth in the study area in the future. Using climate change only, an increase in high and median flows and decrease in low flows are projected. Changes in flow characteristics are more pronounced when only future land use changes are considered, with increases in high, median and low flows. Under the joint examination of the driving forces, an amplifying effect on the high flows and median flows observed. In contrast, climate change is projected to dampen the extreme increases in the low flows created by the land use change. Surface water temperatures are projected to increase as a result of climate change in the Occoquan reservoir, while these changes are not very noticeable under the effect of land use change only. It is expected that higher water temperatures will promote decreased oxygen solubility and greater heterotrophy. Moreover, longer anoxic conditions are projected at the bottom of the reservoir. Results indicate that higher water temperature will increase the denitrifying capacity of the reservoir, especially during summer months, further reducing the nitrate concentration in the reservoir.PHD
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Sadeghian, Amir. "Long-term hydrological modeling of 16 arable land stations, Using measured and interpolated climate data." Thesis, KTH, Mark- och vattenteknik, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-99345.
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The impact of anthropogenic activities on environment, especially the effect of land-use and climate changes was investigated in a series of studies. A comprehensive study of 16 research sites in different parts of Sweden was evaluated by using one dimensional hydrological model (CoupModel) to represent water and heat dynamics in layered soil profile covered with vegetation. Simulations are based on daily values and the results are representatives of variations in daily values and changes over years. The models accuracies controlled by measured run-off and snow depth values. However, there are uncertainties in both input data and simulated parameters. The interaction between run-off and snow depth were obtained when the models constrained by both run-off and snow depth. Parameters values variations and models performances changes in different time domains indicate the changes in land-use and climate over time and the model ability to handle these changes respectively. The strong interaction between meteorological stations density and models performances were indicated by comparing results with interpolation radius used for input data preparation.
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Ostberg, Sebastian. "Joint impacts of climate and land use change on the terrestrial biosphere." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19319.
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Es gibt zwei Hauptpfade, über die der Mensch die terrestrische Biosphäre verändert: 1) direkt durch Landnutzungswandel (LNW) und 2) indirekt durch Klimawandel (KW), welcher seinerseits zu Ökosystemveränderungen führt.
Die vorliegende Dissertation unternimmt den Versuch, die vom Menschen über beide diese Pfade verursachten Veränderungen konsistent und quantitativ zu bestimmen. Die Analyse basiert auf einem integrierten Indikator für makro-skalige Veränderungen der biogeochemikalischen Eigenschaften und der Ökosystemstruktur. Große Verschiebungen bei diesen grundlegenden Bausteinen der Biosphäre bedeuten ein Risiko für komplexere Ökosystemeigenschaften, da sie möglicherweise lange bestehende biotische Interaktionen unterbrechen. Die Arbeit stützt sich auf Simulationen mit dem dynamischen globalen Vegetations-, Agrar- und Hydrologiemodell LPJmL, um zu bestimmen, wie biogeochemische Eigenschaften und die Ökosystemstruktur auf historischen LNW und KW reagiert haben. Für die Zukunftsprojektionen wird LPJmL mit einer großen Anzahl an Klima- und Landnutzungsszenarien angetrieben. Laut den Simulationsergebnissen haben sich schwere Ökosystemveränderungen durch LNW und KW von lediglich 0,5% um 1700 auf 25-31% der Landoberfläche heute ausgedehnt. Landnutzung war in der Vergangenheit der wichtigste anthropogene Treiber schwerer Ökosystemveränderungen. Für das 21. Jahrhundert zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass KW voraussichtlich in allen außer den ambitioniertesten Mitigationsszenarien den Platz als Haupttreiber schwerer Ökosystemveränderungen übernehmen wird. Einige Landnutzungsszenarien nehmen an, dass zukünftige Effizienzsteigerungen trotz Bevölkerungswachtum eine Verringerung der landwirtschaftlichen Fläche ermöglichen. Doch auch verminderte LNW-Auswirkungen werden wahrscheinlich nicht ausreichen, um die Zunahme von Klimafolgen zu kompensieren, so dass die vom Menschen verursachte Transformation der Biosphäre in diesem Jahrhundert wahrscheinlich unabhängig vom Szenario wachsen wird.There are two major pathways of human interference with the terrestrial biosphere: 1) directly through land use change (LUC) and 2) indirectly through anthropogenic climate change (CC) which in turn drives ecosystem change. This dissertation presents an attempt to assess human-induced biosphere change through both these pathways in a consistent and quantitative way. The analysis is based on an integrated indicator of macro-scale changes in biogeochemical characteristics and ecosystem structure. Large shifts in these basic building blocks of the biosphere are taken to indicate a risk to more complex ecosystem properties as they potentially disrupt long-standing biotic interactions. This dissertation relies on simulations with the dynamic global vegetation, agriculture and hydrology model LPJmL to quantify how biogeochemical characteristics and ecosystem structure have responded to historical LUC and CC. For future projections LPJmL is driven by a large number of CC and LUC scenarios, using the same indicator to measure the impact on the biosphere. Simulation results show that major impacts on the biosphere from CC and LUC have expanded from merely 0.5% of the land surface in 1700 to 25-31% of the land surface today. Land use has been the main anthropogenic driver causing major ecosystem change in the past. For the future, results show that CC is expected to take over as the main anthropogenic driver of major ecosystem change during this century in all but the most ambitious climate mitigation scenarios. Despite a growing world population, some land use scenarios project that future efficiency improvements will allow for a reduction of agricultural land and hence a reduction of the impact of LUC on the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, results also show that reduced LUC impacts will likely not be able to compensate for the increase in CC impacts, and human-induced transformation of the biosphere is likely to grow during this century regardless of the considered scenario.
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Fazel, Modares N. (Nasim). "The role of climate and land use change in Lake Urmia desiccation." Doctoral thesis, Oulun yliopisto, 2018. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789526221021.
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Abstract Wetlands in arid and semi-arid regions are complex fragile ecosystems that are critical in maintaining and controlling environmental quality and biodiversity. These wetlands and specially closed lake systems depend on support processes in upstream parts of the basin or recharge zone, as small changes in river flow regime can cause significant changes in lake level, salinity and productivity. Recent strong alterations in river flow regimes due to climate and land use change have resulted in ecosystem degradation and desiccation of many saline lakes in arid and semi-arid regions. Because of the low economic value of these lakes, their hydrology has not been monitored accurately, making it difficult to determine water balance and assess the role of water use and climate in lake desiccation. Furthermore, available data are usually of coarse resolution on both spatial and temporal scale. New frameworks using all available data and refining existing information on lake basins were developed in this thesis to assess regional differences in water resource availability, impacts of human activities on river flow regime alteration and agricultural land use change. The frameworks were applied to study causes and impacts of desiccation of a major lake, Lake Urmia, one of the largest saltwater lakes on Earth. This highly endangered ecosystem is on the brink of a major environmental disaster resembling that around the Aral Sea. The spatial pattern of precipitation across the Lake Urmia basin was investigated, to shed light on regional differences in water availability. Using large numbers of rainfall records and a wide array of statistical descriptors, precipitation across space and time was evaluated. Another important research component involved examining streamflow records for headwaters and lowland reaches of the Lake Urmia basin, in order to determine whether observed changes are mainly due to climate change or anthropogenic activities (e.g. water withdrawal for domestic and irrigation purposes). Principal component and clustering analyses of all available precipitation data for the lake basin revealed a heterogeneous precipitation pattern, but also permitted delineation of three homogeneous precipitation areas within the region. Further analysis identified variation in seasonal precipitation as the most important factor controlling the spatial precipitation pattern in the basin. The results showed that climate change impact on headwaters is insignificant and that irrigation is the main driving force for river flow regime alterations in the basin. This is supported by evidence that the headwaters have relatively remained unaffected by agriculture and by lack of significant changes in the historical records. The approach presented, involving clear in terpretation of existing information, can be useful in communicating land use and climate change information to decision makers and lake restoration plannersTiivistelmä Kuivilla aridisilla ja semiaridisilla alueilla sijaitsevat kosteikot ovat hauraita ekosysteemejä. Ne ovat myös tavallista tärkeämpiä, koska ne ylläpitävät ja säätelevät ympäristön laatua sekä luonnon monimuotoisuutta. Nämä kosteikot, kuten valtaosa muistakin kosteikoista, ovat riippuvaisia vesistöalueen ylemmillä osilla tehdyistä toimista kuten vesistöjen säännöstelystä. Jopa pienet muutokset jokien virtauksissa voivat aiheuttaa merkittäviä muutoksia järvien vedenpinnan korkeuteen, suolapitoisuuteen ja tuottavuuteen. Viimeaikaiset ilmastonmuutoksen ja maankäytön muutosten aiheuttamat voimakkaat muutokset jokien virtaamiin ovat johtaneet ekosysteemien rappeutumiseen sekä monien suolajärvien kuivumiseen kuivilla ja puolikuivilla alueilla. Kuivilla alueilla sijaitsevien suolajärvien hydrologiaa ei ole tarkkailtu riittävästi niiden alhaisemman taloudellisen arvon vuoksi. Se hankaloittaa vesitaseen määrittämistä. Tarkkojen tietojen puuttuessa on vaikea arvioida myös sitä, miten vedenkäyttö ja ilmasto ovat vaikuttaneet järvien kuivumiseen. Lisäksi saatavilla olevat tiedot ovat yleensä sekä ajallisesti että alueellisesti epätarkkoja. Analysointiin tarvittavien tietojen ja välineiden puute saattaa pahimmillaan johtaa ristiriitaisiin oletuksiin. Väitöstyön päätavoite on tarjota puitteet, joilla parannetaan ymmärrystä vesivarojen alueellisista eroista, ihmisen toiminnan vaikutuksista jokien virtausten muutoksiin ja maatalouden maankäytön muutoksista käyttäen kaikkea saatavilla olevaa dataa sekä täsmentäen samalla vesistöistä jo olemassa olevaa tietoa. Väitöskirja tutkii yhden suuren järven kuivumisen syitä ja seurauksia. Urmiajärvi on yksi maapallon suurimmista suolajärvistä sekä erittäin uhanalainen ekosysteemi. Järvi on samankaltaisen ympäristökatastrofin partaalla, joka aiheutti Araljärven kuivumisen. Väitöskirja antaa tietoa veden saatavuuden alueellisista eroista tutkimalla sademäärien alueellista jakautumista Urmiajärven valuma-alueella. Tutkielmassa arvioidaan sadannan ajallista ja paikallista vaihtelua erilaisten tilastollisten menetelmien avulla. Tutkielman toinen tärkeä osa keskittyy vesialtaan latvavesistön ja tasankoalueiden valumatietoihin. Tämän osuuden päätavoite on määritellä johtuvatko havaitut muutokset järvessä pääasiassa ilmastonmuutoksesta vai ihmisen toiminnasta kuten kastelusta. Sadantatietojen pääkomponentti- ja ryhmittelyanalyysien tulokset osoittavat, että Urmiajärven allas on sadannaltaan heterogeeninen alue. Analyysi johti seudun jakamiseen kolmeen homogeeniseen sadanta-alueeseen. Analyysi osoitti, että sademäärien kausittainen vaihtelu on merkittävin järvialtaan alueellisiin sademääriin vaikuttava tekijä. Tulokset osoittavat, että ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset latvavesistöön eivät olleet merkittäviä ja keinokastelu on ylivoimaisesti merkittävin järvialtaan jokien virtausten muutoksiin vaikuttava tekijä. Tätä johtopäätöstä tukee se tosiseikka, että maanviljelys ei ole juurikaan vaikuttanut latvavesistöihin eikä niissä näy historiallisten lähteiden perusteella merkittäviä muutoksia. Tutkimuksen hyöty on siinä, että se tulkitsee saatavilla olevan tiedon selkeästi, joka on avuksi, kun maankäyttöön ja ilmastonmuutokseen liittyviä tietoja välitetään päättäjille ja järven kunnostusta suunnitteleville tahoille
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Ruo, Pingping. "ASSESSMENT OF WATER-RELATED PROBLEMS CONSIDERING LAND USE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CONDITION." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/157559.
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Humagain, Kamal. "Examining Land Use/Land Cover Change and Potential Causal Factors in the Context of Climate Change in Sagarmatha National Park, Nepal." TopSCHOLAR®, 2012. http://digitalcommons.wku.edu/theses/1218.
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In the context of growing tourism and global warming, the fragile landscape of the Himalayas is under immense pressure because of rapid land cover changes in developing countries like Nepal. Remotely sensed data combined with ethnographic knowledge are useful tools for studying such changes. The quantitative change can be measured analyzing satellite images whereas local people’s perceptions provide supportive information. To measure such changes in Sagarmatha National Park of Nepal, Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) images since 1972 were used. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was calculated for different elevation classes and land cover types. These measurements, along with land cover change (1992- 2006) analysis, shows a significant conversion of the areas covered by ice, shrub and grass to rock and soil. Factors including political conflict due to a Maoist rebellion group, inactive park management, increasing tourist demand, and consequent natural resources exploitation helped to explain the change in the forested areas. This is supported by the information from short, informal, semi-structured interviews with local people. However, the local people are unaware of global warming, which has caused the ice melting and glacial lake expansion. Although global causes are out of the immediate control of land managers, better management practices and managed tourism might help alleviate deteriorating Himalayan ecosystems.
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Ampomah, Richard Owusu. "Sediment Harvesting, Beneficial Use and the Impact of Climate and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Sediment Load." University of Akron / OhioLINK, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1403478256.
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Umulisa, Viviane. "Investigating the relationship between land use and soil moisture variation in Suid Bokkeveld, South Africa." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/19992.
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This study investigated the spatial variability of soil moisture as well as changes within the soil profile of different land use types in the Suid Bokkeveld, situated to the south-west of the Nothern Cape, South Africa. This area has been experiencing harsh weather conditions that affect local agricultural production and multiple livelihood activities. The primary aim of the research was to analyse the influence of land use adopted in response to weather and climate change by studying the effects of soil moisture variations in the area. The study found that, together with depth and soil particle size, different types of land use contribute to soil moisture variations. Out of the five types of land uses that were investigated, rooibos cultivated farms had the highest soil moisture variability. The second highest variability was found in grazing cultivated farms and the lowest in natural and grazing never cultivated land, respectively. The results confirm that the shift from rooibos tea and wheat cultivation to grazing has contributed to a reduction in soil moisture variations. The grazing cultivated and fallow system could therefore be an effective land use types to ensure water and soil conservation, reduce land degradation and adapt to weather and climate change. The significance of this study lies in it being one of the first explorations into soil moisture in this area. Other forcing factors will need to include building a comprehensive and integrated understanding of soil moisture variability based on multiple influencing factors.
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Dan-Jumbo, Nimi Gibson. "Assessing the effects of urban development and climate change on flooding in the Greater Port-Harcourt watershed, Niger Delta, Nigeria." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/28960.
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Developing countries have been rapidly urbanising over the last decades, resulting in major environmental pressures and increased vulnerability to natural disasters. A complex combination of factors, including climate change, land use change, poorly implemented regulation and a lack of integrated planning has often resulted in environmental degradation and disproportionate impacts of natural disasters affecting millions worldwide, particularly in tropical cities. The main aim of this study is to understand the effects of land-use and climate change on flooding in the Greater Port-Harcourt watershed. The specific research objectives were: to understand the historical and future land use /land cover changes; to understand the magnitude of change in hydrologic and hydraulic conditions due to land-use and climate changes; to assess the influence of different forest mitigation scenarios on peak-discharge; and to make recommendations on how to improve future planning using insights from this study. Methodologically, the post-classification change detection method was applied to examine the extent and nature of historical LULC changes using remotely sensed data. Future LULC changes were estimated by superimposing the 2060 digitised Masterplan map on the year 2003 baseline imagery. Hydrologic changes were assessed using HEC-HMS model, while changes in the hydraulic condition were assessed using HEC-RAS model. Model output was further used to map flood hazards, flood zones and damage potential. Priority areas and infrastructure at risk were identified by means of their location in flood zones and exposure to floods with high damage potential. On the extent of change, this study revealed that urbanisation and loss of agricultural land had been the dominant and intensive land use change in the watershed. Urbanisation is projected to almost double its 2003 extent by 2060 and is likely to remain the dominant force of land use change. On the nature of change, this study found that urban land was the most dynamic in terms of gross gain and net change. It exhibited the grossest gain (about 9% of the watershed) and the grossest loss leading to a high net change of about 8.6%. In fact, the most prominent transition was the conversion of agricultural land (about 422km2) to urban land, and roughly 93.3% of all conversions to urban land resulted from agricultural land. On the process of change, urban land mainly experienced a net-type of change (change in quantity), whereas changes in agricultural land was more of a swap-type of change (change in location). Importantly, the study reveals that the impact on flood flow was historically significant (about 68%) and is projected to amplify in future, however, these changes are largely attributed to increased storm size. Urbanisation is likely to have little or no impact on annual maximum peak flow at the watershed scale; however, urbanisation is projected to have a considerable impact on peak flow in a number of subbasins, which could have severe implications for flash flooding in those subbasins. Similarly, afforestation could have little or no impact on future maximum peak flow when assessed at the watershed scale. Although some subbasins experienced changes in peak flow, the effect of forest is variable. The study concludes that although the impact of urbanisation is projected to be insignificant at the watershed scale, it could also increase flood risk due to increasing developments in floodplains and channel encroachment. Priority infrastructure and areas requiring urgent flood risk management include the Port-Harcourt seaports, Onne seaport, the University of Science and Technology and cement factory. Priority areas in the Masterplan are mainly in the south (Phase 3), comprising of the Air force base and the residential area near Onne seaport. Lastly, approximately 8.1km and 189m of road and rail network are at greater risk of flooding by means of their exposure to floods with the highest damage potential. Based on this study, I have furthered understanding by showing that the transition to urban land category was dominated by net changes (i.e. changes in quantity). I have also furthered understanding by showing that substantial changes in future urban land-use may not have significant effect on flood parameters. My main contribution to knowledge is that despite the high rate of urbanisation in the GPH watershed and its minimal impact on flooding (which could be due the large size of the storm and watershed), urbanisation could still increase flood risk due to greater exposure of elements at risk in the flood plains to damaging floods. Based on the results, the study recommends that the development authorities should integrate both structural measures (mainly for flood defence around existing developments) and non-structural measures (primarily for future developments). For flood risk management research, this study recommends that conclusions about the effects of urbanisation should not be made solely on the basis of changes in hydrology and river hydraulics, however researchers should also consider the exposure of important elements at risk within the floodplains under study to better understand the effects of urbanisation. Moreover, to better understand urbanisation effects on runoff dynamics in other watersheds, this study recommends that research efforts should be concerted in understanding subbasin-scale changes given that the effects of urbanisation are more pronounced in smaller basins.
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Xi, Xin. "Examination of mineral dust variability and linkages to climate and land-cover/land-use change over Asian drylands." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/53433.
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Large uncertainties remain in estimating the anthropogenic fraction of mineral dust and the climatic impact of dust aerosol, partly due to a poor understanding of the dust source dynamics under the influence of climate variability and human-induced land-cover/land-use change (LCLUC). So far, the dust dynamics and linkage to climate and LCLUC in Central Asia have received little attention from the aerosol research community. This thesis comprises a comprehensive study of the dust dynamics in Central Asia focusing on 1) the seasonality of erosion threshold and dust emission affected by soil moisture, vegetation phenology and surface roughness, 2) the dust interannual variability and connections with large-scale climate variation (ENSO) through effects on the atmospheric circulation, precipitation, vegetation dynamics and drought, and 3) the impact of dust aerosol on surface radiative balance and photosynthetically active radiation, and possible effect on dryland ecosystems. A coupled dust model and multi-year ground and satellite observations of dust frequency, dust loading, and atmospheric and land conditions are used in this study. We find the threshold friction velocity significantly varies in space and time in response to soil moisture seasonality, surface roughness heterogeneity and vegetation phenology. Spring is associated a higher threshold friction velocity than summer, due to wetter soils and more vegetation cover. As a result, although more frequent strong winds occur during spring, spring dust emission is less than summer by 46.8% (or 60.4 Mt). Ignoring the dependence of the threshold friction velocity on the surface characteristics leads to biased spatial distribution and seasonality of dust emission. There is a strong linkage between dust and ENSO in Central Asia: La Nina years produce drought condition and enhance the dust activity. A decline in the strong wind frequency during 1999−2012 results in a decreasing trend in the modeled dust emission, at a rate of -7.81±2.73 Mt yr-1, as well as a decreasing trend in the ground observed dust frequency index, at a rate of -0.14±0.04%. We estimate that 58.4% of dust emission is caused by human activity during the 1999−2012 period. Our estimates suggest human plays an important role in the region’s dust budget through agriculture and water resource usage.
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Shang, Linyuan. "Climate Change And Land Use/cover Change Impacts On Watershed Hydrology, Nutrient Dynamics – A Case Study In Missisquoi River Watershed." ScholarWorks @ UVM, 2019. https://scholarworks.uvm.edu/graddis/1016.
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Watershed regulation of water, carbon and nutrient dynamics support food, drinking water and human development. Projected climate changes and land use/cover change (LUCC) have been identified as drivers of watershed nutrient and hydrological processes and are likely to happen jointly in the future decades. Studying climate change and LUCC impacts on watersheds' streamflow and nutrients dynamics is therefore essential for future watershed management.
This research aimed to unveil how climate change and LUCC affect water and nutrient dynamics in the Missisquoi River watershed, Vermont. We used 12 scenarios of future climate data (2021 – 2050) generated by three GCMs (ccsm4, mri-cgcm3, and gfdl-esm2m) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For LUCC, we used three different scenarios generated by the Interactive Land Use Transition Agent-Based Model (ILUTABM). The three LUCC scenarios were Business As Usual (BAU), Prefer Forest (proForest), and Prefer Agriculture (proAg). New land use maps were generated every 10 years for the period of 2021 – 2050. Combining each climate change and LUCC scenario resulted in 36 scenarios that were used to drive Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) ecohydrological model.
In chapter 3, we used RHESSys to study streamflow. We found climate was the main driver for streamflow because climate change directly controlled the system water input. For streamflow, climate change scenarios had larger impacts than LUCC, different LUCCs under the same climate change scenario had similar annual flow patterns.
In chapter 4, we used RHESSys to study streamflow NO3-N and NH4-N load. Because fertilizer application is the major source for nitrogen export, LUCC had larger impacts; watersheds with more agricultural land had larger nitrogen loads.
In chapter 5, we developed RHESSys-P by coupling the DayCent phosphorus module with RHESSys to study climate change and LUCC impacts on Dissolved Phosphorus (DP) load. RHESSys-P was calibrated with observed DP data for 2002 – 2004 and validated with data for 2009 - 2010. In both calibration and validation periods, simulated DP basically captured patterns of observed DP. In the validation period, the R2 of simulated vs observed DP was 0.788. Future projection results indicated BAU and proForest annual loads were around 4.0 × 104 kg under all climate change scenarios; proAg annual loads increased from around 4.0 × 104 kg in 2021 to 1.6 × 105 kg in 2050 under all climate change scenarios. The results showed LUCC was the dominant factor for dissolved phosphorus loading.
Overall, our results suggest that, while climate drives streamflow, N and P fluxes are largely driven by land use and management decisions. To balance human development and environmental quality, BAU is a feasible future development strategy.
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Gebrehiwot, Worku Zewdie Verfasser], Elmar [Akademischer Betreuer] [Gutachter] Csaplovics, Marcus [Gutachter] [Nüsser, and Michael [Gutachter] Köhl. "Climate, land use and vegetation trends : Implication of land use change and climate change on northwestern drylands of Ethiopia / Worku Zewdie Gebrehiwot ; Gutachter: Elmar Csaplovics, Marcus Nüsser, Michael Köhl ; Betreuer: Elmar Csaplovics." Dresden : Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1114068063/34.
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Gebrehiwot, Worku Zewdie [Verfasser], Elmar Akademischer Betreuer] [Gutachter] Csaplovics, Marcus [Gutachter] [Nüsser, and Michael [Gutachter] Köhl. "Climate, land use and vegetation trends : Implication of land use change and climate change on northwestern drylands of Ethiopia / Worku Zewdie Gebrehiwot ; Gutachter: Elmar Csaplovics, Marcus Nüsser, Michael Köhl ; Betreuer: Elmar Csaplovics." Dresden : Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1114068063/34.
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Lapola, David Montenegro [Verfasser]. "Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change / David Montenegro Lapola." Kassel : Universitätsbibliothek Kassel, 2010. http://d-nb.info/1006192484/34.
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Zahabiyoun, Bagher. "Stochastic generation of daily streamflow data incorporating land use and/or climate change effects." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/733.
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In the stochastic hydrology literature, suitable time series modelling approaches have been developed for modelling daily streamflow. However, problems arise with this approach if changes are occurring to the precipitation regime generating the historic streamflow data, or if land-use changes are occurring within the catchment which may alter the water balance and the streamflow regime. Traditional time series modelling approaches employ historic streamflow data only and will generate synthetic data which are representative only of the historic conditions. It is not possible to predict how the model parameters should be changed to reflect changes in the climate (precipitation) and catchment response regimes. Developing a methodology to deal with the stochastic generation of daily streamflow that reflects changes to the catchment system and climatic inputs (rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) and then applying the corresponding methodology to a study catchment (upper Thames) in England is the focus of this study. To study the water resources impacts of land-use change on the daily streamflow regime of a catchment, a daily rainfall-runoff model is needed which can accommodate various land cover characteristics and provide separate estimates of potential and actual evapotranspiration in its evapotranspiration component for each land cover type. Given a model with this capability, the impacts of various land-use scenarios on daily streamflow can be investigated. In the case of climate change, since GCMs do not provide useable results on a short time scale such as a day and on a spatial scale such as a catchment of about 1000 km2, a methodology is required to predict the changes which may occur in the climate inputs of a catchment, and the resulting impacts on water resources. The approach developed here for water resources impact studies of land-use change and climate change has three main elements: (I) Two stochastic models, one for rainfall (Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses, NSRP, model) and the other for potential evapotranspiration (PET), are employed to generate daily rainfall and daily PET sequencesr,e spectively. Thesem odels have been validated using historic records for the study catchment. ABSTRACT ii (II) The ARNO model has been calibrated and validated using daily streamflow data for the study catchment. The evapotranspiration component of the model has been modified to obtain a satisfactory water balance. The model is then extended to include the explicit calculation of interception for different land cover types within the catchment. The runoff from these areas is then routed to the catchment outlet. The rainfall and PET models are used to generate synthetic daily input series to the modified ARNO model for present catchment land-use conditions, and overall procedure is validated using the historic streamflow record. This is then worked out using the extended model and referred to as the constructed` control' scenariow hich is used as a benchmarkf or assessingla nd-usec hange impacts on water resources for two different land-use scenarios. (III) The transient GCM climate scenarios are used as the starting point for assessing climate change impacts. Regression relationships are derived between atmospheric circulation variables and rainfall statistics used in fitting the NSRP model for present climate conditions and then used to predict the rainfall statistics for future conditions using GCM outputs. That is, the scenarios of a climate model are downscaled by a regression technique to a resolution sufficient to represent daily rainfall at the catchment scale. To generate potential evapotranspiration (PET) scenarios, an empirical equation is used to estimate PET daily values as a function of temperature, thus enabling future scenarios to be generated as a function of GCM temperature predictions. Generated rainfall and PET scenarios are used as inputs to the adapted ARNO catchment response model to generate daily streamflow data. Impact assessments using both land-use change and climate change scenarios are then carried out using a range of water resources assessment measures such as flow duration curves, cumulative run sums and storage/yield relationships, and the practical implications discussed.
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Götzinger, Jens. "Distributed conceptual hydrological modelling - simulation of climate, land use change impact and uncertainty analysis." [S.l. : s.n.], 2007. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:93-opus-33499.
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Robillard, Cassandra. "Prioritizing Areas for Habitat Conservation in the Face of Climate and Land-Use Change." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/34499.
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The selection of sites for biodiversity conservation is best done if it anticipates future challenges and efficiently accomplishes targets, given limited funding for such efforts. The first chapter of this thesis discusses how conservation practitioners might manage and enhance long-term survival for species whose ranges must shift as climate changes, across regions that present significant mobility barriers. I describe recommendations highlighting connectivity, refugia from climate change, adaptation, and restoration within agricultural landscapes in North America, but these recommendations are transferable elsewhere. The second chapter examines patterns of change in agricultural intensity and land price within Canada’s species-rich farmland between 1986 and 2011, and creates sequential cost-efficient plans to conserve resident species-at-risk within that time period, to determine how environmental and cost changes erode the efficiency of conservation plans. While sites initially selected as cost-efficient remained so through time, total plan costs increased, decreasing each plan’s ability to represent all species for a given budget. This emphasizes the urgent need for conservation within Canada’s farmland.
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Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina. "Modelling land-use and climate change impacts on hydrology : the Upper Ganges river basin." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/24809.
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This thesis explores the effects that large-scale land-use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change pose to the terrestrial water cycle, by developing a case study in the Upper Ganges (UG) river basin, in India. In an area experiencing rapid rates of LUCC and changes in irrigation practices, historic land-use maps are developed, based on satellite images, to investigate historical trends of LUCC. Future projection scenarios of LUCC for years up to 2035 are derived from Markov chain analysis. To explore the impacts of those changes in hydrology, the generated maps are used to force the Land Surface Model (LSM) JULES. JULES is found to be reasonably skilful in terms of its ability to reproduce observed streamflow. However, the results indicate that there is much room left for improved estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) fluxes, which JULES is found to over-predict. By dynamically coupling JULES with the crop model InfoCrop, the simulated ET fluxes are improved, compared to the original JULES model. The difference in mean annual ET between the two models (coupled and original) is approximately 150 mm/yr and indicates the potential error in ET flux estimations of an LSM without dynamic vegetation. The impact of LUCC and climate change on the hydrological response of the UG basin is quantified, by calculating variations in hydrological components (streamflow, ET and soil moisture) during the period 2000-2035. Severe increases in the high extremes of flows (+40% in the multi-model mean) are being projected for the nearby future (2030-2035). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change scenario, whilst climate change is the main driver of those changes. These results provide the necessary evidence-base to support regional land-use planning, advanced irrigation practices and develop future-proof water resource management strategies under a water-limited environment.
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Rizzo, Rodnei. "Effects of climate change and land use change on the water balance components of the Xingu river basin, southeastern Amazon." Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/91/91131/tde-21012019-144713/.
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In the southern of the Amazon basin, extensive deforestation associated with global climate change have impacted the regional water cycle. Predictions indicate that future alteration might cause even higher pressure over regional water resources. The goal of this study was to perform a detailed evaluation of past changes in the water resources of the upper Xingu basin, a region which is broadly representative of southern Amazon. The evaluation consisted of characterizing alterations in medium and long-term time series of rainfall, river discharge, evapotranspiration and total water storage change. The study employed not only in situ measurements, but also remotely sensed data. Remote sensing products including rainfall, evapotranspiration and water storage change were employed in the evaluation of the regional water balance. A thirteen years\' time series derived from RS products was submitted to a trend analysis, to detect significant variations in the water balance. Furthermore, uncertainties in each remote sensing product were retrieved, mostly comparing in situ measurements with RS estimates. To describe limitations of such products to evaluate the regional water balance, river discharge was calculated as the residual of the water balance. Later on, the estimated river discharge was compared to in situ measurements and uncertainties in the water balance were defined. The analysis of long-term alterations considered in situ measurements of rainfall and river discharge, from the period of 1976-2015. In this case, a group of hydro-climatological indicators was derived and then submitted to Mann-Kendall and Petit test. Due to the relevance of forest cover on river flow regulation, land use changes (LUC) were mapped every five years from 1985 to 2015. LUC results were then compared to the hydro-climatological data, to identify similarities in changing patterns. The evaluation of water balance components based on remote sensing products described fairly well the spatial variability in the study site. The uncertainties in P, ET and TWSC products corresponded to 41, 25 and 18 mm month-1, respectively. Due to these uncertainties, it was not possible to perform the water balance closure based on RS data. No significant changes were observed in the time series derived from these products. Contrastingly, the evaluation of a 40-years\' time series presented a decrease of 245 mm in rainfall, with intensity and number of rainy events being reduced. This phenomenon is most likely resultant from two process, the reduction in water recycling due to deforestation, as well as the Pacific Ocean decadal oscillation, which influences the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Although deforestation tends to increase river discharge, the reduction in rainfall in the Upper Xingu Basin was high enough to mask this effect.O desmatamento em larga escala na região sul da bacia amazônica brasileira, associado às mudanças climáticas globais, tem impactado o ciclo hidrológico regional. Previsões futuras indicam uma pressão ainda maior sobre os recursos hídricos regionais. O objetivo deste estudo foi realizar uma avaliação detalhada das possíveis alterações nos recursos hídricos da bacia do Alto Xingu, uma região extremamente representativa do sul da Amazônia. Para tanto, foram empregadas séries temporais de longa e média duração, correspondentes à precipitação (P), vazão (Q), evapotranspiração (ET) e variação do armazenamento de água (TWSC). O estudo empregou medições in situ, bem como dados de sensoriamento remoto (SR). As estimativas de sensoriamento remoto foram empregadas na avaliação do balanço hídrico regional. As séries temporais de treze anos derivadas de produtos de SR foram submetidas a uma análise de tendência, com o objetivo de detectar variações significativas nos componentes do balanço hídrico. Além disso, as incertezas em cada produto foram obtidas comparando-se medições in situ com as estimativas de SR. Com o objetivo de descrever as limitações de tais produtos para a realização do balanço hídrico regional, a vazão do rio Xingu foi estimada com base na fórmula do balanço hídrico. Posteriormente, tal estimativa foi comparada com as medições in situ, gerando um indicativo da incerteza no fechamento do balanço hídrico. Já a análise das alterações a longo prazo considerou as medidas in situ da precipitação e vazão, no período de 1976-2015. Neste caso, um grupo de indicadores hidro-climatológicos foi calculado e posteriormente submetido aos testes de Mann-Kendall e Pettit. Devido à relevância das florestas na regulação da vazão dos rios, as mudanças no uso e ocupação da terra foram mapeadas a cada cinco anos, durante 1985-2015. Os resultados foram comparados aos dados hidro-climatológicos, buscando assim semelhanças nos padrões de alteração. Os produtos de sensoriamento remoto descreveram razoavelmente bem a variabilidade espacial dos componentes do balanço hídrico. As incertezas nas estimativas de P, ET e TWSC corresponderam a 41, 25 e 18 mm mês-1. Devido a incertezas nos produtos de SR, não foi possível realizar o fechamento do balanço hídrico. Com relação as séries temporais derivadas dos dados de SR, nenhuma mudança significativa foi observada. Por outro lado, a avaliação das séries temporais de longa duração, apresentaram diminuição de 245 mm na precipitação, com as chuvas tendo intensidade e número de eventos reduzidos. Este fenômeno é provavelmente resultante de dois processos, sendo um deles a redução na ciclagem da água devido ao desmatamento. O segundo corresponde a oscilação decadal na temperatura da superfície do Oceano Pacífico, a qual influencia a circulação atmosférica em grande escala. Embora o desmatamento cause aumento na vazão do rio, a redução da precipitação na Bacia do Alto Xingu foi suficientemente alta para mascarar esse efeito. Os dados aqui apresentados não só apresentam um diagnóstico sobre os recursos hidrícos do Alto Xingu, como também são extremamente relevantes para a compreensão da interação entre a paisagem e os componentes do balanço hídrico.
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Blanco, González Víctor. "Modelling adaptation strategies for Swedish forestry under climate and global change." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/25380.
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Adaptation is necessary to cope with, or take advantage of, the effects of climate change on socio-ecological systems. This is especially important in the forestry sector, which is sensitive to the ecological and economic impacts of climate change, and where the adaptive decisions of owners play out over long periods of time. These decisions are subject to experienced and expected impacts, and depend upon the temporal interactions of a range of individual and institutional actors. Knowledge of, and responses to, climate change are therefore very important if forestry is to cope with, or take advantage of, the effects of climate change over longer timescales. It is important to understand the role of human behaviour and decision-making processes in the study of complex socio-ecological systems and modelling is a method that can support experiments to advance this understanding. This study is based on the development of CRAFTY-Sweden; an agent-based model that allows the exploration of Swedish land-use dynamics and adaptation to climate change through scenario analysis. In CRAFTY-Sweden, forest and farmland owners make land use and management decisions according to their objectives, management preferences and capabilities. As a result of their management and location characteristics they are able to provide ecosystem services. To explore future change, quantitative scenarios were used that considered both socio-economic development pathways and climatic change. Simulations were run under the different scenarios for the period 2010-2100, for the whole of Sweden. Furthermore, because institutions (i.e. organisations) also influence socio-ecological systems through their actions and interactions between them and with land owners and the environment, a conceptual model of institutional actions applied to socio-ecological systems was developed. The application of this conceptual model was explored through a model of institutions that can act, interact and adapt to environmental change in attempting to affect ecosystem service provision within a simple forestry governance system. I found that forestry in the future will likely be unable to meet societal demands for forest services solely on the basis of autonomous adaptation. A northward expansion of agriculture and especially of forestry proved positive for both sectors to adapt to changing conditions, under several scenarios, given the substantial land availability and the improved environmental conditions for plant growth. Legacy effects of past land-use change can have a great impact on future land-use change and adaptation processes, especially in forestry. Also, greater competition for land may lead to shorter forest rotation times. Socio-economic change and land owner behavioural differences may have a larger impact on owner competitiveness, land-use change and ecosystem service provision than climate-driven changes in land productivity. Different owner objectives and behaviour resulted in different levels of ecosystem service provision. Also, particular forest types were differently suitable for adaptation depending on the sets of objectives under which they were managed. Owners implementing particular management strategies can be differently competitive under different future scenarios, and the suitability of such strategies for adaptation is not a static, inherent characteristic of a system. Instead, it evolves in response to changing contexts that include both the external global change drivers and the internal dynamics of agent interactions. Additionally, institutional conceptual models as presented here can support better understanding of the key institutional decision-making dynamics and their consequences, endogenously, flexibly across different socio-ecological systems. Finally, study limitations, future research and the policy relevance of findings are discussed.
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Liu, Shuguang, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Lena R. Boysen, James D. Ford, Andrew Fox, Kevin Gallo, Jerry Hatfield, et al. "Grand Challenges in Understanding the Interplay of Climate and Land Changes." AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/624354.
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Half of Earth's land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decisionmaking processes work in specific contexts.
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Mango, Liya M. "Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya." FIU Digital Commons, 2010. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/159.
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Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.
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Kalantari, Zahra. "Road structures under climate and land use change : Bridging the gap between science and application." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Mark- och vattenteknik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-140631.
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Future changes in climate and land use are likely to affect catchment hydrological responses and consequently influence the amount of runoff reaching roads. Blockages and damage to under-dimensioned infrastructure can be extremely costly for the regions affected. This study aims to produce scientifically well-founded suggestions on adaptation of road drainage systems to climate changes resulting in more frequent floods. This thesis demonstrates the need to integrate aspects of climate change and land use impacts into the planning and practice of road construction and maintenance in Sweden. Tools such as hydrological models are needed to assess impacts on discharge dynamics. Identifying a ‘best’ practically performing hydrological model is often difficult due to the potential influence of modeller subjectivity on calibration procedure, parameter selection, etc. Hydrological models may need to be selected on a case-by-case basis and have their performance evaluated on an application-by-application basis. The work presented here began by examining current practice for road drainage systems in Sweden. Various hydrological models were then used to calculate the runoff from a catchment adjacent to a road and estimate changes in peak discharge and total runoff resulting from simulated land use measures. Overall, the results indicate that the specific effect of land use measures on catchment discharge depend on their spatial distribution and on the size and timing of storm events. Scenarios comprising a changing climate up to 2050 or to 2100 and forest clear-cutting were used to determine whether the current design of road drainage construction is sufficient for future conditions. Based on the findings, the approach developed can be used for similar studies, e.g. by the Swedish Transport Administration in dimensioning future road drainage structures to provide safe and robust infrastructure. Furthermore, a statistical method was developed for estimating and mapping flood hazard probability along roads using road and catchment characteristics. The method allows flood hazards to be estimated and provides insight into the relative roles of landscape characteristics in determining road-related flood hazards. Overall, this method provides an efficient way to estimate flooding hazards and to inform the planning of future roadways and the maintenance of existing roadways.QC 20140130
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Siswanto, Shantosa Yudha. "Impact Evaluation of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water and Sediment Regime using Distributed Hydrological Modelling in a Tropical Rainforest Catchment in West Java (Indonesia)." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/153152.
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[EN] Climate change has occurred in Indonesia, for example, increasing the surface air temperature, including in the Upper Citarum watershed. This phenomenon leads to a lack of water in the dry season, which lowers agriculture production and remains a great obstacle for agricultural activity. Meanwhile, human activity has produced severe LULC changes within the Upper Citarum watershed. This occurs due to the demands of the ever-increasing population growth in the region. As a result, rice field and forested areas have been sacrificed to compensate the urban increment. The general objective of this dissertation is to understand and analyze the impact of climate and LULC changes on the hydrological process and their relationship with historical and future changes by using spatially distributed modeling on the Upper Citarum tropical catchment. The distributed model TETIS has been implemented to obtain the results of past and future scenarios on the water and sediment cycles. Annual historical bathymetries in the reservoir were used to calibrate and validate the sediment sub-model involving Miller's density evolution and trap efficiency of Brune's equation. Climate change has been considered under RCP 45 and RCP 85 trajectories. Meanwhile, to overcome the LULC problem, historical and future LULCs have been studied. LCM model was used to forecast the LULC in 2029. The forecasted results of LCM model show, on one hand, a continuation in the expansion of urban areas at the expense of the contiguous rice fields. The results determined that deforestation and urbanization were the most influential factors for the alteration of the hydrological and sedimentological processes in the Upper Citarum Catchment. Thus, it decreases evapotranspiration, increases water yield by increasing all its components; overland flow, interflow and baseflow. The changes in LULC are currently producing and will produce in the future, a relatively small increment of erosion rates, increasing the area exceeds Tsl erosion. Sediment yield will increase in 2029 as the result of erosion increment. Other LULC scenarios such as conservation, government plan and natural vegetation scenarios are expected to have an increment in total evapotranspiration, the water yield is expected to decrease. Flood regime, erosion and sedimentation are reduced dramatically. Hence, it leads to a massive increment of reservoir and hydropower lifetime signed by a very long period of the lifetime. Climate change alters the magnitude of water balance and can be identified from the shift of infiltration, overland flow, interflow, baseflow and water yield. Those increments finally change the flood regime, catchment erosion. RCP 85 trajectory gives a bigger impact compared to RCP 45 trajectory on hydrological and sediment cycle. . LULC change results a bigger impact on water balance, flood regime, erosion and sedimientation. The combination of climate and LULC change give a bigger impact on the flows of water balance, erosion, flood, sedimentation and will be catastrophic for the hydropower operation of the Saguling Dam.[ES] El cambio climático ha afectado a Indonesia, por ejemplo, incrementando la temperatura del aire en la superficie, incluso en la cuenca del Upper Citarum. Este fenómeno conduce a la falta de agua en la estación seca, reduciendo la producción agrícola lo que es un gran obstáculo para su actividad. Además, la actividad humana ha producido cambios severos en LULC en la cuenca del Upper Citarum, Indonesia. Esto se debe al elevado crecimiento de la población en la región, por el que se han convertido campos de arroz y áreas boscosas en suelo urbano. De esta forma, el objetivo general de esta tesis es comprender y analizar el impacto de los cambios climáticos y LULC en el proceso hidrológico y su relación con los cambios históricos y futuros mediante el uso de modelos distribuidos espacialmente en la cuenca tropical del Upper Citarum. El modelo distribuido TETIS se ha implementado para obtener los resultados de escenarios pasados y futuros en los ciclos de agua y sedimentos. Se usaron batimetrías históricas anuales en el embalse para calibrar y validar el submodelo de sedimentos que involucra la evolución de la densidad de Miller y la eficiencia de retención de la ecuación de Brune. Con el fin de arrojar más luz sobre estos problemas, el escenario de cambio climático se ha implementado en base al modelo de cambio climático bajo las trayectorias RCP 45 y RCP 85. Además, para intentar resolver el problema LULC, también se ha implementado el LULC histórico y futuro. El modelo LCM se usó para pronosticar el LULC en 2029 y los resultados muestran, por un lado, una continuación en la expansión de las áreas urbanas a expensas de los arrozales contiguos. Los resultados determinaron que la deforestación y la urbanización fueron los factores más influyentes para la alteración de los procesos hidrológicos y sedimentológicos en la cuenca del Upper Citarum. Por lo tanto, disminuye la evapotranspiración, aumenta la producción de agua al aumentar todos sus componentes; escorrentía, interflujo y flujo base. Los cambios en LULC están produciendo y producirán, un incremento relativamente pequeño de las tasas de erosión, aumentando el área excede la erosión de Tsl. La producción de sedimentos aumentará en 2029 como resultado del incremento de la erosión. Se espera que otros escenarios de LULC como la conservación, el plan gubernamental y los escenarios de vegetación natural tengan un incremento en la evapotranspiración total, y se espera que la producción de agua disminuya. El régimen de inundación, la erosión y la sedimentación se reducen drásticamente. Por lo tanto, habrá un incremento de la vida útil del embalse y la energía hidroeléctrica. El cambio climático altera la magnitud del equilibrio hídrico y puede identificarse a partir del cambio de infiltración, escorrentía, interflujo, flujo base y producción de agua. Esos incrementos finalmente cambian el régimen de inundación y erosión de la cuenca. La trayectoria RCP 85 tiene un mayor impacto en comparación con la trayectoria RCP 45 en el ciclo hidrológico y de sedimentos. El cambio de LULC tiene un mayor impacto en el balance hídrico, el régimen de inundación, la erosión y la sedimentación. La combinación del cambio climático y LULC tiene un mayor impacto en los flujos de equilibrio hídrico, erosión, inundación, sedimentación y será catastrófico para la operación hidroeléctrica de la presa Saguling.
[CA] El canvi climàtic ha afectat Indonèsia, per exemple, incrementant la temperatura de l'aire en la superfície, inclús en la conca de l'Upper Citarum. Aquest fenomen conduïx a la falta d'aigua en l'estació seca, reduint la producció agrícola, el que és un gran obstacle per a la seua activitat. A més, l'activitat humana ha produït canvis severs en LULC en la conca de l'Upper Citarum, Indonèsia. Açò es deu a l'elevat creixement de la població en la regió, motiu pel qual s'han anat convertint camps d'arròs i àrees boscoses en sòl urbà. D'aquesta manera, l'objectiu general d'aquesta tesi és comprendre i analitzar l'impacte dels canvis climàtics i LULC en el procés hidrològic i la seua relació amb els canvis històrics i futurs per mitjà de l'ús de models distribuïts espacialment en la conca tropical de l'Upper Citarum. El model distribuït TETIS s'ha implementat per a obtindre els resultats d'escenaris passats i futurs en els cicles de l'aigua i sediments. Es van usar batimetries històriques anuals en l'embassament per a calibrar i validar el submodel de sediments que involucra l'evolució de la densitat de Miller i l'eficiència de retenció de l'equació de Brune. Amb la finalitat de donar més llum a aquests problemes, l'escenari de canvi climàtic s'ha implementat basant-se en el model de canvi climàtic davall les trajectòries RCP 45 i RCP 85. A més, per a intentar resoldre el problema LULC, també s'ha implementat el LULC històric i futur. El model LCM es va usar per a pronosticar el LULC en 2029 i els resultats mostren, d'una banda, una continuació en l'expansió de les àrees urbanes a costa dels arrossars contigus. Els resultats van determinar que la desforestació i la urbanització van ser els factors més influents per a l'alteració dels processos hidrològics i sedimentològics en la conca de l'Upper Citarum. Per tant, disminuïx l'evapotranspiració, augmenta la producció d'aigua en augmentar tots els seus components; escorrentia, interflux i flux base. Els canvis en LULC estan produint i produiran, un increment relativament xicotet de les taxes d'erosió, augmentant l'àrea excedix l'erosió de Tsl. La producció de sediments augmentarà en 2029 com a resultat de l'increment de l'erosió. S'espera que altres escenaris de LULC com la conservació, el pla governamental i els escenaris de vegetació natural tinguen un increment en l'evapotranspiració total, i s'espera que la producció d'aigua disminuïsca. El règim d'inundació, l'erosió i la sedimentació es reduïxen dràsticament. Per tant, hi haurà un increment de la vida útil de l'embassament i l'energia hidroelèctrica. El canvi climàtic altera la magnitud de l'equilibri hídric i pot identificar-se a partir del canvi d'infiltració, escorrentia, interflux, flux base i producció d'aigua. Eixos increments finalment canvien el règim d'inundació i erosió de la conca. La trajectòria RCP 85 té un major impacte en comparació amb la trajectòria RCP 45 en el cicle hidrològic i de sediments. El canvi de LULC té un major impacte en el balanç hídric, el règim d'inundació, l'erosió i la sedimentació. La combinació del canvi climàtic i LULC té un major impacte en els fluxos d'equilibri hídric, erosió, inundació, sedimentació i serà catastròfic per a l'operació hidroelèctrica de la presa Saguling.
thank the Directorate General of Higher Education of Indonesia (DIKTI), for granting me the opportunity to pursue PhD study and adventure in Europe. The authors are also thankful to the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects TETISMED (CGL2014-58127-C3-3-R) and TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-I00).
Siswanto, SY. (2020). Impact Evaluation of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water and Sediment Regime using Distributed Hydrological Modelling in a Tropical Rainforest Catchment in West Java (Indonesia) [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/153152
TESIS
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Kumar, Navneet [Verfasser]. "Impacts of Climate change and Land use change on the Water resources of the Upper Kharun Catchment, Chhattisgarh, India / Navneet Kumar." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1077268912/34.
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Sabellek, Katharina [Verfasser]. "Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Plant Diversity Patterns in Africa / Katharina Sabellek." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2010. http://d-nb.info/1016248784/34.
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Müller, Christoph. "Climate change and global land-use patterns : quantifying the human impact on the terrestrial biosphere." Hamburg Max-Planck-Inst. für Meteorologie, 2007. http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/publikationen/Reports/WEBB̲zE4̲1.pdf.
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Lawrence, Brendan W. "Determining Heat Island Response to Varying Land Cover Changes Between 2004 and 2017 Within the City of Reno, Nevada." Thesis, University of Nevada, Reno, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10932769.
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The objective of this research was to investigate the role of land cover changes through time in influencing spatial variability of the surface urban heat island of the metropolitan area of Reno-Sparks, Nevada. Free and widely available thermal data from Landsat 7 ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) sensor was gathered for a period between 2004 and 2017 and processed to at-satellite surface temperature. Using parcel data and the National Land Cover Database, the time series of Landsat data was sampled for areas which had undergone development during that time. This sample was cross-validated with ten iterations of equal sample size, with a mean correlation coefficient of 0.623 (standard deviation of 0.008) versus the model’s value of 0.624. A set of generalized linear models was conducted on this sample to determine expected temperature change with land cover class. It was found that recently developed regions within Reno-Sparks are 0.6 °C warmer on average than the undeveloped desert grasses and sage. When wetlands/irrigated greenery were converted to impervious surfaces, it resulted in a positive surface temperature change of over 2 °C. Once developed, no significant difference was found in the surface temperature trends. This research, using remote sensing technologies, has shown that the Reno-Sparks surface urban heat island has undergone local, but measurable growth in the last fourteen years.
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Jaramillo, Fernando. "Changes in the Freshwater System : Distinguishing Climate and Landscape Drivers." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-113101.
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Freshwater is a vital resource that circulates between the atmosphere, the land and the sea. Understanding and quantifying changes to the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, runoff and water storage change in the landscape are required for assessing changes to freshwater availability. However, the partitioning processes and their changes are complex due to multiple change drivers and effects. This thesis investigates and aims to identify and separate the effects of atmospheric climate change and various landscape drivers on long-term freshwater change. This is done based on hydroclimatic, land-use and water-use data from the beginning of the twentieth century up to present times and across different regions and scales, from catchment to global. The analyzed landscape drivers include historic developments of irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture and flow regulation. The thesis uses and develops further a data-motivated approach to interpret available hydroclimatic and landscape data for identification of water change drivers and effects, expanding the approach application from local to continental and global scales. Based on this approach development, the thesis identifies hydroclimatic change signals of landscape drivers against the background of multiple coexisting drivers influencing worldwide freshwater change, within and among hydrological basins. Globally, landscape drivers are needed to explain more than 70% of the historic hydroclimatic changes, of which a considerable proportion may be directly human-driven. These landscape- and human-driven water changes need to be considered and accounted for also in modeling and projection of changes to the freshwater system on land.At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Submitted.
VR, project 2009-3221
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Le, Lance Olot. "Modeling stream discharge and nitrate loading in the Iowa-Cedar River basin under climate and land use change." Diss., University of Iowa, 2015. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/1872.
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A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed for the Iowa-Cedar River Basin (ICRB), a 32,660 km2 watershed dominated by agricultural land cover (∼70%) to simulate hydrology and water quality for the prediction of stream discharge, nitrate loads, and nitrate concentration under climate and land use change scenarios. Iowa exports as much as 20% of the nitrogen entering the Gulf of Mexico at the mouth of the Mississippi, contributing to Gulf hypoxia as well as local threats to water quality in the ICRB. The model utilized a combined autocalibration and sensitivity procedure incorporating Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI) and generalized additive models. This procedure resulted in Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) goodness-of-fit statistics that met literature guidelines for monthly mean stream discharge (NSE≥0.60) and daily nitrate load (NSE≥0.50). Artificial neural networks coupled with SWAT stream discharges aided in the simulation of daily mean nitrate concentrations that met the literature guideline (NSE≥0.50).
The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) provided an ensemble of 11 climate change scenarios. NARCCAP is a multi-institutional effort to simulate climate change at the mesoscale by downscaling global circulation models (GCM) with regional climate models (RCM). The resulting GCM-RCM produced synthetic precipitation and temperature time-series that drove the SWAT simulations and scenarios. The land use scenarios were a collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, using a rule-based GIS method to generate scenarios that (1) maximized agricultural productivity, (2) improved water quality and reduced flooding, and (3) enhanced local biodiversity. The SWAT simulations and ensemble climate change scenarios resulted in a warmer and wetter climate with greater and more extreme discharge in all seasons except summer where the models indicate a somewhat higher probability of extreme low flows (p-value<0.05). The land use scenarios for SWAT showed that nitrate load and discharge positively and linearly scale with percent of agricultural land area (p-value<0.05).
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Yang, Zhao, and Zhao Yang. "Land-Atmosphere Interactions Due to Anthropogenic and Natural Changes in the Land Surface: A Numerical Modeling." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/623069.
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Alterations to the land surface can be attributed to both human activity and natural variability. Human activities, such as urbanization and irrigation, can change the conditions of the land surface by altering albedo, soil moisture, aerodynamic roughness length, the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat, and other surface characteristics. On the other hand, natural variability, manifested through changes in atmospheric circulation, can also induce land surface changes. These regional scale land surface changes, induced either by humans or natural variability, can effectively modify atmospheric conditions through land-atmosphere interactions. However, only in recent decades have numerical models begun to include representations of the critical processes driving changes at the land surface, and their associated effects on the overlying atmosphere. In this work we explore three mechanisms by which changes to the land surface–both anthropogenic and naturally induced–impact the overlying atmosphere and affect regional hydroclimate. The first land-atmosphere interaction mechanism explored here is land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) due to urban expansion. Such changes alter the surface albedo, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity of the surface. Consequently, the energy balance in urban regions is different from that of natural surfaces. To evaluate the changes in regional hydroclimate that could arise due to projected urbanization in the Phoenix–Tucson corridor, Arizona, my first study applied the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) with an Urban Canopy Model (UCM; which includes a detailed urban radiation scheme) coupled to the Noah land surface model to this region. Land-cover changes were represented using land-cover data for 2005 and projections to 2050, and historical North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to specify the lateral boundary conditions. Results suggest that temperature changes are well defined, reflecting the urban heat island (UHI) effect within areas experiencing LULCC, whereas changes in precipitation are less certain (statistically less robust). However, the study indicates the likelihood of reductions in precipitation over the mountainous regions northeast of Phoenix and decreased evening precipitation over the newly urbanized area. The second land-atmosphere interaction mechanism explored here is irrigation which, while being an important anthropogenic factor affecting the local to regional water cycle, is not typically represented in regional climate models. In this (second) study, I incorporated an irrigation scheme into the Noah land surface scheme coupled to the WRF model. Using a newly developed water vapor tracer package (developed by Miguez-Macho et al. 2013), the study tracks the path of water vapor that evapotranspires from the irrigated regions. To assess the impact of irrigation over the California Central Valley (CCV) on the regional climate of the U.S. Southwest, I ran six simulations (for three dry and three wet years), both with and without the irrigation scheme. Incorporation of the irrigation scheme resulted in simulated surface air temperature and humidity that were closer to observations, decreased the depth of the planetary boundary layer over the CCV, and increased the convective available potential energy. The results indicated an overall increase in precipitation over the Sierra Nevada Range and the Colorado River Basin during the summer, with water vapor rising from the irrigated region moving mainly northeastward and contributing to precipitation in Nevada and Idaho. The results also indicate an increase in precipitation on the windward side of the Sierra Nevada Range and over the Colorado River Basin. The former is possibly linked to a sea-breeze type circulation near the CCV, while the latter is likely associated with a wave pattern related to latent heat release over the moisture transport belt. In the third study, I investigated the role of large-scale and local-scale processes associated with heat waves using the Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and evaluate the performance of the regional climate model ensemble used in the North America Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP) in reproducing these processes. The Continental US is divided into different climate divisions (following the convention of the National Climate Assessment) to investigate different mechanisms associated with heat waves. At the large scale, warm air advection from terrestrial sources is a driving factor for heat waves in the Northeast and Midwest. Over the western United States, reduced maritime cool air advection results in local warming. At the local scale, an antecedent precipitation deficit leads to the continuous drying of soil moisture, more energy being partitioned into sensible heat flux and acting to warm surface air temperatures, especially over the Great Plains. My analysis indicates that the NARCCAP simulated large-scale meteorological patterns and temporal evolution of antecedent local-scale terrestrial conditions are very similar to those of MERRA. However, NARCCAP overestimates the magnitude and underestimates the frequency of Northeastern and Midwestern US heat waves, partially due to anomalous heat advection through large-scale forcing. Overall, the aforementioned studies show that utilization of new parameterizations in land surface models, such as the urban canopy scheme and the irrigation scheme, allow us to understand the detailed physical mechanisms by which anthropogenic changes in the land surface can affect regional hydroclimate, and may thus help with informed decision making and climate adaptation/mitigation. In addition to anthropogenic changes of the land surface, humans are of course affecting the overlying atmosphere. Currently, NARCCAP is the best available tool we have to help us understand the effects of changes greenhouse gas induced climate change at the regional scale. The regional climate models participating in NARCCAP are able to realistically represent the dominant processes associated with heat waves, including the atmospheric circulation changes and the land-atmosphere interactions that drive heat waves. This lends credibility, when analyzing the projections of these models with increased GHG emissions, to the assessment of changes in heat waves under a future climate.
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Schwantes, Ana Paula. "Agricultural resource efficiency and reduction of impacts under land-use and climate change scenarios in Brazil." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11136/tde-02102017-094321/.
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Cerrado is the second largest Brazilian biome and originally corresponded to 24% of the national territory, and since the 1970´s has been under agriculture and cattle activities. Soybean and maize are two of the most important grain-crops found in this region, with an estimated production of approximately 223 millions of tons in the Brazilian 2016/17 harvest. Changes in soil physical properties due to soil management affect productivity. Possible changes in climatic variables may also affect agricultural productivity, either per unit area (land productivity) or per unit of water volume (water productivity). One option for studying the relation between land and water productivity and how they are affected by soil hydraulic properties and climatic factors is by using an agro-hydrological model. In this study, the aim was to quantify aspects of the soil water balance and to make estimates of land and water productivity for soybean in a clay soil and maize in a medium texture in the Cerrado region using SWAP simulations for different irrigation strategies. Effects on agricultural productivity of a climatic prevision with increasing the air temperature and rainfall reduction for the years 2016-2040 were also simulated. Results show that an increase of soil porosity, resulting from a conservation tillage management, leads to a higher infiltration capacity and is shown to increase land and water productivity, when associated to irrigation scenarios. Higher water productivities were observed with only supplementary irrigation. Predicted climate changes will lead to a decrease of approximately 20% by the end of the years 2016-2040 in land productivity, under rainfed conditions.O Cerrado é o segundo maior bioma brasileiro que originalmente, correspondia a 24% do território nacional, e desde os anos 1970 tem sido utilizado para atividades ligadas à agricultura e pecuária. Soja e milho são duas das mais importantes culturas graníferas encontradas nesta região, com uma estimativa de produtividade de aproximadamente 223 milhoes de toneladas na safra brasileira de 2016/17. Mudanças nas propriedades físicas do solo devido ao manejo do solo afetam a produtividade agrícola. Possíveis mudanças de variáveis climáticas também poderão afetar a produtividade agrícola, tanto por unidade de área (produtividade de terra) ou por unidade de volume de água (produtividade de água). Uma opção para estudar as relações entre a produtividade de água e de terra e como elas são afetadas pelas propriedades hidraulicas do solo e pelos fatores climáticos é pela utilização de um modelo agro-hidrológico. Neste trabalho, o objetivo foi quantificar os aspectos do balanço hídrico do solo e realizar estimativas da produtividade de água e de terra para soja em um solo argiloso e para milho em um solo de textura média, na região do Cerrado, utilizando simulações com o modelo SWAP para diferentes manejos de irrigação. Os efeitos na produtividade agrícola de uma previsão climática com aumento da temperatura do ar e redução da precipitação para os anos 2016-2040 foram também simulados. Os resultados mostram que um aumento na porosidade do solo, resultante de um manejo conservacionista do solo, leva a uma maior infiltração e resulta num aumento na produtividade da terra e da água, quando associado a cenários de irrigação. As maiores produtividades da água foram observadas com irrigação suplementar. As mudanças climáticas previstas levarão a uma diminuição de aproximadamente 20% na produtividade da terra ao final dos anos 2016-2040, em áreas não irrigadas.
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Bouska, Kristen Leah. "Impacts of climate and land use change on fish species distributions in the central United States." OpenSIUC, 2014. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/dissertations/939.
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Species distribution models are useful tools that can be used to evaluate tradeoffs of management and conservation strategies under scenarios of environmental change. Modeling efforts for fish species have largely focused on cold-water, commercial, and recreationally-valued species, even though warm-water, non-game species have important roles in ecosystem services and processes. I developed species distribution models for fourteen warm-water fish species native to the Central United States and evaluated environmental drivers and predictive performance. I used an ensemble model approach produced by combining forecasts of five single-model techniques. Response plots and variable importance calculations were used to evaluate the influence of individual variables. The predictive performance of the ensemble models was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic plot. Ensemble model AUC values generally performed better than single-model types, suggesting ensemble models are more reliable and applicable for management purposes than single-models. Most models were influenced by a mix of climate, land use and geophysical variables; however, climate variables were the dominant environmental drivers across models. Next, I projected distribution responses of 14 warm-water fish species to climate and land use scenarios using the ensemble models combined with scenario analyses. I incorporated different time periods, greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and general circulation models into the scenario analysis. I then tested the effect of climate change scenario and the incorporation of land use on range change. Although it has been hypothesized that warm-water fishes will generally benefit from future climate changes through range expansion, I found wide variability in range change across the species modeled. There was a significant effect of greenhouse gas scenario and year on overall range change for half of the species modeled. The incorporation of future land use projections into scenarios generally led to increased range expansion. I combined all scenarios into consensus projections to visualize range change projections across all scenarios. Some species expanded their range to the north and into higher elevations while other species were projected to lose significant portions of their range. For example, orangethroat darter (Etheostoma spectabile) is projected to gain between 30 to 90 percent new range and lose between 0 to 6 percent of its current range while bigmouth shiner (Hybopsis dorsalis) is projected to gain between 0 to 20 percent new range and lose 75 to 100 percent of its current range. Variability in climate change responses across warm-water species may be a result of ecological traits, such as range size and fecundity. The variability in warm-water species' responses suggests management of these species can be informed through the use of species distribution modeling and scenario analysis.
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Hayes, Nicole M. "Climate and watershed land use as drivers of change in phytoplankton community structure and ecosystem function." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1434464484.
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Mwangi, Hosea M., Stefan Julich, Sopan D. Patil, Morag A. McDonald, and Karl-Heinz Feger. "Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya." Elsevier, 2016. https://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A30418.
Full textAbstract:
Study region
Nyangores River watershed, headwater catchment of Mara River basin in Kenya.
Study focus
Climate variability and human activities are the main drivers of change of watershed hydrology. The contribution of climate variability and land use change to change in streamflow of Nyangores River, was investigated. Mann Kendall and sequential Mann Kendall tests were used to investigate the presence and breakpoint of a trend in discharge data (1965–2007) respectively. The Budyko framework was used to separate the respective contribution of drivers to change in discharge. Future response of the watershed to climate change was predicted using the runoff sensitivity equation developed.
New hydrological insights for the region
There was a significant increasing trend in the discharge with a breakpoint in 1977. Land use change was found to be the main driver of change in discharge accounting for 97.5% of the change. Climate variability only caused a net increase of the remaining 2.5% of the change; which was caused by counter impacts on discharge of increase in rainfall (increased discharge by 24%) and increase in potential evapotranspiration (decreased discharge by 21.5%). Climate change was predicted to cause a moderate 16% and 15% increase in streamflow in the next 20 and 50 years respectively. Change in discharge was specifically attributed to deforestation at the headwaters of the watershed.
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Pasanen, Mortensen Marianne. "Anthropogenic impact on predator guilds and ecosystem processes : Apex predator extinctions, land use and climate change." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Zoologiska institutionen, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-100720.
Full textAbstract:
Humans affect ecosystems by changing species compositions, landscape and climate. This thesis aims to increase our understanding of anthropogenic effects on mesopredator abundance due to changes in apex predator status, landscape and climate. I show that in Eurasia the abundance of a mesopredator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), is limited top-down by the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and bottom-up by winter severity. However, where lynx has been eradicated, fox abundance is instead related to bottom-factors such as cropland (paper I, II). Fox abundance was highest when croplands constituted 25% of the landscape (paper II). I also project red fox abundance in Sweden over the past 200 years and in future scenarios in relation to lynx density, land use and climate change. The projected fox abundance was highest in 1920, when lynx was eradicated and the proportion of cropland was 22%. In 2010, when lynx had recolonised, the projected fox abundance was lower than in 1920, but higher than in 1830. Future scenarios indicated that lynx abundance must increase in respond to climate change to keep fox at the same density as today. The results suggest a mesopredator release when lynx was eradicated, boosted by land use and climate change, and that changes in bottom-up factors can modify the relative strength of top-down factors (paper IV). From 1846-1922, lynx, wolverine (Gulo gulo) and grey wolf (Canis lupus) declined in Scandinavia due to persecution; however I show that the change in wolverine abundance was positively related to the changes in lynx and wolf abundance. This indicates that wolverine is subsidized by carrions from lynx and wolf kills rather than limited top-down by them (paper III). This thesis illustrates how mesopredator abundance is determined by a combination of top-down and bottom-up processes, and how anthropogenic impacts not only can change the structures of predator guilds, but also may modify top-down processes through changes in bottom-up factors.At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Submitted. Paper 3: Submitted. Paper 4: Manuscript.
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Mwangi, Hosea M., Stefan Julich, Sopan D. Patil, Morag A. McDonald, and Karl-Heinz Feger. "Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227067.
Full textAbstract:
Study region
Nyangores River watershed, headwater catchment of Mara River basin in Kenya.
Study focus
Climate variability and human activities are the main drivers of change of watershed hydrology. The contribution of climate variability and land use change to change in streamflow of Nyangores River, was investigated. Mann Kendall and sequential Mann Kendall tests were used to investigate the presence and breakpoint of a trend in discharge data (1965–2007) respectively. The Budyko framework was used to separate the respective contribution of drivers to change in discharge. Future response of the watershed to climate change was predicted using the runoff sensitivity equation developed.
New hydrological insights for the region
There was a significant increasing trend in the discharge with a breakpoint in 1977. Land use change was found to be the main driver of change in discharge accounting for 97.5% of the change. Climate variability only caused a net increase of the remaining 2.5% of the change; which was caused by counter impacts on discharge of increase in rainfall (increased discharge by 24%) and increase in potential evapotranspiration (decreased discharge by 21.5%). Climate change was predicted to cause a moderate 16% and 15% increase in streamflow in the next 20 and 50 years respectively. Change in discharge was specifically attributed to deforestation at the headwaters of the watershed.
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Peach, Michelle. "Evaluating the Role of Protected Areas in Mitigating Avian Responses to Climate and Land Use Change." Thesis, State University of New York Col. of Environmental Science & Forestry, 2017. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10623168.
Full textAbstract:
Billions of dollars have been invested in land protection as a strategy to conserve biodiversity based on the assumption that protected areas buffer species from processes that drive extinction. Increasingly, protected area expansion and connectivity are being incorporated into climate change adaptation strategies to facilitate anticipated shifts in species ranges in response to predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. However, the effectiveness of protected areas at maintaining biodiversity, either by reducing the risk of extinction or facilitating colonization into new areas, has not been well established. In addition, the growing reliance on multiple-use protected areas that allow resource extraction, such as timber harvest and mineral mining, has raised questions about whether multiple-use protected areas are equally beneficial for long-term biodiversity conservation as more strictly protected areas that limit active resource management. In order to address these questions using repeated Breeding Bird Atlas data, I first had to confront the limitations of existing approaches to account for imperfect detection by developing a novel modelling approach to addresses the gap between requirements of other multi-season occupancy models (i.e. repeated sampling) and existing datasets. I then applied that single-visit dynamic occupancy modelling approach to Atlas data in New York and Pennsylvania for 97 species to quantify drivers of colonization and extinction while accounting for imperfect detection in landscapes that varied by type and amount of land cover and area under protection. In general, protected areas increased colonization and lowered extinction probabilities to an increasing degree as both forest cover and neighborhood protection decreased, with particular benefits for forest breeding birds. Both strict and multiple-use protected areas increased colonization and reduced extinction more for mature forest species than early forest species, with the greatest benefits accruing when forest cover was relatively low. These results provided the most comprehensive evidence to date that protected areas can facilitate species persistence by both reducing the risk of extinction and providing attractive colonization sites as species? ranges shift and that biodiversity conservation can be compatible with renewable resource extraction.
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Ylänne, H. (Henni). "Herbivory control over tundra carbon storage under climate change." Doctoral thesis, Oulun yliopisto, 2017. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789526215105.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Air temperatures in high-latitude regions are anticipated to rise by several degrees by the end of the century and result in substantial northward shifts of species. These changes will likely affect the source and sink dynamics of greenhouse gases and possibly lead to a net carbon release from high-latitude soils to the atmosphere. However, regional differences in carbon cycling depend highly on the vegetation community composition, which may be controlled by the abundance of herbivores. I investigated whether mammalian herbivores, mainly reindeer and rodents, alter ecosystem carbon storage through their impacts on vegetation and on dominant plant functional traits. I combined observations of recent changes in ecosystem carbon with experimental field manipulations of both herbivory and climate change and measured carbon storage in vegetation and soil, the uptake and release of carbon dioxide, microbial activity and compared these to plant community composition. Results of my PhD thesis show that under ambient conditions, the impacts of herbivory on both above- and belowground carbon storage ranged from positive to negative. Herbivory altered dominant plant functional traits and these were fairly good predictors of the changes in soil carbon. When combined with experimental warming, herbivory continued to exert control on the dominant plant functional traits but the strong effects of warming on ecosystem carbon storage mostly concealed the impact of herbivory. Interestingly, herbivory–nutrient interactions that were not linked to dominant functional traits determined the consequences of warming on soil carbon. Taken together, I show clear and site-specific impacts of herbivores on vegetation and ecosystem carbon storage and the processes that govern them. Therefore, I suggest that an improved understanding of the role of herbivory in the global carbon cycle could improve estimations of global carbon–climate feedbacksTiivistelmä Vuosisadan loppuun mennessä arktisten alueiden lämpötilan odotetaan nousevan usealla asteella ja johtavan lajien siirtymiseen yhä pohjoisemmaksi. Nämä muutokset todennäköisesti muuttavat pohjoisten ekosysteemien kykyä vapauttaa ja sitoa ilmakehän hiiltä ja saattavat johtaa siihen, että yhä enemmän hiiltä vapautuu tundramailta ilmakehään. Kuitenkin paikallisesti hiilenkierto on riippuvainen kasviyhteisöstä ja erityisesti kasvien funktionaalisista ominaisuuksista. Väitöskirjassani tutkin, voivatko herbivorit, pääasiassa porot sekä jyrsijät, muokata hiilenkiertoa muuttamalla kasvillisuutta. Tutkimuksissani seurasin kuinka alueen laidunnushistoria on muokannut hiilivarastoja ja hiilenkiertoa tällä hetkellä ja pyrin arvioimaan herbivorien vaikutusta lämpenevässä ilmastossa kokeiden avulla, joissa manipuloidaan sekä herbivoriaa että lämpötilaa tai ravinteiden saatavuutta. Tulokseni perustuvat arvioihin hiilen varastoista, hiilidioksidin vapautumisesta ja sitoutumisesta sekä mikrobien aktiivisuudesta, joita vertaan kasviyhteisöön. Tulokseni osoittavat, että herbivoria voi joko lisätä tai vähentää ekosysteemin hiilivarastoja sekä maan päällä että maan alla. Muutokset hiilivarastoissa selittyivät varsin hyvin herbivorien tuottamilla kasvillisuusmuutoksilla ja valtalajien funktionaalisilla ominaisuuksilla. Herbivoria muokkasi kasviyhteisöä myös kokeellisen lämmityksen yhteydessä, mutta lämmityksen välittömät vaikutukset hiilivarastoihin peittivät suureksi osaksi alleen herbivorian vaikutukset. Kuitenkin herbivorian ja lannoituksen kasvillisuusmuutoksista riippumattomat yhdysvaikutukset määrittivät lämpenemisen seuraukset maan hiileen. Kaiken kaikkiaan, tutkimukseni osoittaa, että herbivorit voivat paikkakohtaisesti muokata kasvillisuutta, ekosysteemin hiilivarastoja sekä hiilenkierron prosesseja. Näiden tulosten myötä ehdotan, että parempi ymmärrys herbivorian vaikutuksista maailmanlaajuisesti voisi parantaa nykyisiä ennusteita siitä, kuinka ilmaston lämpeneminen muuttaa hiilenkiertoa
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Quayle, Annette Maree. "Managing climate change by the numbers in a UK energy company : the double-disciplinary power of accounting." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2013. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/59763/.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis explores the modern power of accounting in shaping individuals, organisations and society. It does so by examining a series of theoretical, empirical and historical issues at the intersection of accounting and climate change. Accounting’s modern power is studied from a disciplinary perspective derived from the work of Michel Foucault (Foucault, 1977) and Hoskin & Macve (1986; 1988) and concentrates on those historical moments where power-knowledge practices change in ‘fundamental and significant ways’. It suggests one such moment is at the intersection of accounting and climate change, where climate change becomes an object to be managed ‘by the numbers’ through accounting-based measures of control. These ideas are examined through two separate but related modes of analysis. At a macro level, the research traces the emergence of the UK Climate Change Act (2008) as an example of accounting travelling to a new governmental domain. The micro portion of the study examines the emergence of climate change as a new non-financial performance measure in a large UK energy company. The research suggests that the intersection of accounting and climate change was made possible by the modern power of accounting in tying disciplinary subjectivities and objectivities together whilst operating simultaneously at the level of individuals, organisations and government. Studying these interrelations provide a particularly apposite example of accounting’s double-disciplinary power to increasingly manage our world ‘by the numbers’.