Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Climate impact'

Low impact developments (LID) have been used to mitigate the effects of urbanization on the hydrological cycle. However, there is a lack of studies on LID performance in subtropical climates and under potential impacts of climate change scenarios. This dissertation evaluated the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) on urban drainage with pollutants and their effect on LID practice efficiency located in a subtropical climate, with Cfa classification according to Köppen and Geiger. First, the inlet quantity and quality parameters were calibrated. The buildup/washoff model was evaluated, comparing load calibration and concentration of pollutants: chemical oxygen demand (COD), total organic carbon (TOC), phosphate (PO4) (NH3), iron (Fe), cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn). Pollutant washing was studied in the area of the bioretention catchment using historical rainfall data between 2013 and 2017, analyzing the influence of the buildup/washoff parameters of each pollutant in the input mass. Afterwards, Eta5x5km (INPE) climate change scenarios were disaggregated to 5-minute intervals by the modified Bartlett-Lewis method. The disaggregated series was used to estimate the impacts of climate change on urban drainage into the bioretention. Therefore, a simple model, developed specifically for the study bioretention cell, was used to estimate the qualitative-quantitative efficiencies of each period of the climate change scenarios. According to the data acquired from INPE, climate change will result in a fall in the volume of rainfall in São Carlos, resulting in lower volumes of surface runoff. The impacts on pollutant washing, however, vary according to the buildup/washoff parameters, explained by a sensitivity analysis. Climate change does not affect the bioretention quantitative efficiency very much: 81.7% from 1980 to 1999 to 81.4% and 81.3% from 2080 to 2099 for CPR scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. The pollutant removal efficiencies, as well as the washing, depend on buildup/washoff characteristics. One of the main consequences of climate change is a drop in the runoff quality. However, even with quantitative efficiency being maintained, bioretention is capable of mitigating this increase in the concentration of pollutants in urban drainage. Thus, the LID will help preserve the quality of downstream rivers, whose volumes will already have diminished by the decrease in rainfall volume.
Técnicas compensatórias de drenagem (TC) vêm sido utilizadas para mitigar efeitos da urbanização no ciclo hidrológico. Entretanto faltam estudos sobre a performance destas TCs em clima subtropical e sob potenciais impactos de cenários de mudanças climáticas. Esta dissertação avaliou os impactos de dois cenários de mudanças climáticas (RCP 4.5 e 8.5) sobre o escoamento superficial urbano com poluentes e sua afetação na eficiência da TC localizada em clima subtropical, classificação Cfa segundo Köppen e Geiger. Primeiro se calibrou os parâmetros de quantidade e qualidade do escoamento superficial na entrada da biorretenção. O modelo buildup/washoff foi avaliado, comparando-se calibração da carga e concentração de poluentes: demanda química de oxigênio (DQO), carbono orgânico total (TOC), fosfato (PO4), nitrato (NO3), nitrito (NO2) amônia (NH3), ferro (Fe), cadmio (Cd) e zinco (Zn). Então se estudou a lavagem de poluentes na área de contribuição da biorretenção com histórico de precipitação entre 2013 e 2017 e analisando a influência dos parâmetros buildup/washoff de cada poluente na entrada de massa. Em seguida, cenários de mudanças climáticas Eta-5x5km (INPE) foram desagregados em intervalos de 5 minutos, pelo método de Bartlett-Lewis modificado. A série desagregada foi utilizada para se estimar os impactos das mudanças climáticas na drenagem urbana, a incidir na biorretenção. Então um modelo simples desenvolvido especificamente para a biorretenção em estudo foi usado para se estimar as eficiências quali-quantitativas de cada período dos cenários de mudanças climáticas. Os dados adquiridos do Inpe mostram que as mudanças climáticas resultarão em uma queda no volume de chuvas em São Carlos, resultando em menores volumes de escoamento superficial. Os impactos na lavagem de poluentes, entretanto, variam de acordo com os parâmetros buildup/washoff, explicados por uma análise de sensibilidade. As mudanças climáticas pouco afetam a eficiência quantitativa da biorretenção, 81.7% no período 1980-1999 para 81.4% e 81.3% no período 2080-2099 para cenários RCP 4.5 e 8.5. Já as eficiências de remoção de poluentes, assim como a lavagem destes, dependem das características buildup/washoff de lavagem. Uma das principais consequências observadas das mudanças climáticas é uma queda na qualidade do escoamento. Porém, mesmo com eficiência quantitativa sendo mantida, a biorretenção é capaz de amenizar essa o aumento na concentração de poluentes na drenagem urbana. Assim, a técnica ajudará a preservar a qualidade dos rios à jusante, que já terão seus volumes diminuídos pela queda no volume de chuva.

Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This conflict leads to many still unsolved challenges, especially regarding the quantification and aggregation of the components and their suitable level of complexity. This thesis therefore aims at advancing the scientific foundation of such studies by translating the concept of vulnerability into a systematic assessment structure. This includes all components and implies that for each considered impact (e.g. flash floods) a clear sensitive entity is defined (e.g. settlements) and related to a direction of change for a specific climatic stimulus (e.g. increasing impact due to increasing days with heavy precipitation). Regarding the challenging aggregation procedure, two alternative methods allowing a cross-sectoral overview are introduced and their advantages and disadvantages discussed. This assessment structure is subsequently exemplified for municipalities of the German state North Rhine-Westphalia via an indicator-based deductive approach using information from literature. It can be transferred also to other regions. As for many relevant sectors, suitable indicators to express the vulnerability components are lacking, new quantification methods are developed and applied in this thesis, for example for the forestry and health sector. A lack of empirical data on relevant thresholds is evident, for example which climatic changes would cause significant impacts. Consequently, the multi-sectoral study could only provide relative measures for each municipality, in relation to the region. To fill this gap, an exemplary sectoral study was carried out on windthrow impacts in forests to provide an absolute quantification of the present and future impact. This is achieved by formulating an empirical relation between the forest characteristics and damage based on data from a past storm event. The resulting measure indicating the sensitivity is then combined with wind conditions. Multi-sectoral vulnerability assessments require considerable resources, which often hinders the implementation. Thus, in a next step, the potential for reducing the complexity is explored. To predict forest fire occurrence, numerous meteorological indices are available, spanning over a range of complexity. Comparing their performance, the single variable relative humidity outperforms complex indicators for most German states in explaining the monthly fire pattern. This is the case albeit it is itself an input factor in most indices. Thus, this meteorological factor alone is well suited to evaluate forest fire danger in many Germany regions and allows a resource-efficient assessment. Similarly, the complexity of methods is assessed regarding the application of the ecohydrological model SWIM to the German region of Brandenburg. The inter-annual soil moisture levels simulated by this model can only poorly be represented by simpler statistical approach using the same input data. However, on a decadal time horizon, the statistical approach shows a good performance and a strong dominance of the soil characteristic field capacity. This points to a possibility to reduce the input factors for predicting long-term averages, but the results are restricted by a lack of empirical data on soil water for validation. The presented assessments of vulnerability and its components have shown that they are still a challenging scientific undertaking. Following the applied terminology, many problems arise when implementing it for regional studies. Advances in addressing shortcomings of previous studies have been made by constructing a new systematic structure for characterizing and aggregating vulnerability components. For this, multiple approaches were presented, but they have specific advantages and disadvantages, which should also be carefully considered in future studies. There is a potential to simplify some methods, but more systematic assessments on this are needed. Overall, this thesis strengthened the use of vulnerability assessments as a tool to support adaptation by enhancing their scientific basis.
Die Anpassung von Sektoren an veränderte klimatische Bedingungen erfordert ein Verständnis von regionalen Vulnerabilitäten. Vulnerabilität ist als Funktion von Sensitivität und Exposition, welche potentielle Auswirkungen des Klimawandels darstellen, und der Anpassungsfähigkeit von Systemen definiert. Vulnerabilitätsstudien, die diese Komponenten quantifizieren, sind zu einem wichtigen Werkzeug in der Klimawissenschaft geworden. Allerdings besteht von der wissenschaftlichen Perspektive aus gesehen Uneinigkeit darüber, wie diese Definition in Studien umgesetzt werden soll. Ausdiesem Konflikt ergeben sich viele Herausforderungen, vor allem bezüglich der Quantifizierung und Aggregierung der einzelnen Komponenten und deren angemessenen Komplexitätsniveaus. Die vorliegende Dissertation hat daher zum Ziel die Anwendbarkeit des Vulnerabilitätskonzepts voranzubringen, indem es in eine systematische Struktur übersetzt wird. Dies beinhaltet alle Komponenten und schlägt für jede Klimaauswirkung (z.B. Sturzfluten) eine Beschreibung des vulnerablen Systems vor (z.B. Siedlungen), welches direkt mit einer bestimmten Richtung eines relevanten klimatischen Stimulus in Verbindung gebracht wird (z.B. stärkere Auswirkungen bei Zunahme der Starkregentage). Bezüglich der herausfordernden Prozedur der Aggregierung werden zwei alternative Methoden, die einen sektorübergreifenden Überblick ermöglichen, vorgestellt und deren Vor- und Nachteile diskutiert. Anschließend wird die entwickelte Struktur einer Vulnerabilitätsstudie mittels eines indikatorbasierten und deduktiven Ansatzes beispielhaft für Gemeinden in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Deutschland angewandt. Eine Übertragbarkeit auf andere Regionen ist dennoch möglich. Die Quantifizierung für die Gemeinden stützt sich dabei auf Informationen aus der Literatur. Da für viele Sektoren keine geeigneten Indikatoren vorhanden waren, werden in dieser Arbeit neue Indikatoren entwickelt und angewandt, beispielsweise für den Forst- oder Gesundheitssektor. Allerdings stellen fehlende empirische Daten bezüglich relevanter Schwellenwerte eine Lücke dar, beispielsweise welche Stärke von Klimaänderungen eine signifikante Auswirkung hervorruft. Dies führt dazu, dass die Studie nur relative Aussagen zum Grad der Vulnerabilität jeder Gemeinde im Vergleich zum Rest des Bundeslandes machen kann. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, wird für den Forstsektor beispielhaft die heutige und zukünftige Sturmwurfgefahr von Wäldern berechnet. Zu diesem Zweck werden die Eigenschaften der Wälder mit empirischen Schadensdaten eines vergangenen Sturmereignisses in Verbindung gebracht. Der sich daraus ergebende Sensitivitätswert wird anschließend mit den Windverhältnissen verknüpft. Sektorübergreifende Vulnerabilitätsstudien erfordern beträchtliche Ressourcen, was oft deren Anwendbarkeit erschwert. In einem nächsten Schritt wird daher das Potential einer Vereinfachung der Komplexität anhand zweier sektoraler Beispiele untersucht. Um das Auftreten von Waldbränden vorherzusagen, stehen zahlreiche meteorologische Indices zur Verfügung, welche eine Spannbreite unterschiedlicher Komplexitäten aufweisen. Bezüglich der Anzahl monatlicher Waldbrände weist die relative Luftfeuchtigkeit für die meisten deutschen Bundesländer eine bessere Vorhersagekraft als komplexere Indices auf. Dies ist er Fall, obgleich sie selbst als Eingangsvariable für die komplexeren Indices verwendet wird. Mit Hilfe dieses einzelnen meteorologischen Faktors kann also die Waldbrandgefahr in deutschen Region ausreichend genau ausgedrückt werden, was die Ressourceneffizienz von Studien erhöht. Die Methodenkomplexität wird auf ähnliche Weise hinsichtlich der Anwendung des ökohydrologischen Modells SWIM für die Region Brandenburg untersucht. Die interannuellen Bodenwasserwerte, welche durch dieses Modell simuliert werden, können nur unzureichend durch ein einfacheres statistisches Modell, welches auf denselben Eingangsdaten aufbaut, abgebildet werden. Innerhalb eines Zeithorizonts von Jahrzehnten, kann der statistische Ansatz jedoch das Bodenwasser zufriedenstellend abbilden und zeigt eine Dominanz der Bodeneigenschaft Feldkapazität. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Komplexität im Hinblick auf die Anzahl der Eingangsvariablen für langfristige Berechnungen reduziert werden kann. Allerdings sind die Aussagen durch fehlende beobachtete Bodenwasserwerte zur Validierung beschränkt. Die vorliegenden Studien zur Vulnerabilität und ihren Komponenten haben gezeigt, dass eine Anwendung noch immer wissenschaftlich herausfordernd ist. Folgt man der hier verwendeten Vulnerabilitätsdefinition, treten zahlreiche Probleme bei der Implementierung in regionalen Studien auf. Mit dieser Dissertation wurden Fortschritte bezüglich der aufgezeigten Lücken bisheriger Studien erzielt, indem eine systematische Struktur für die Beschreibung und Aggregierung von Vulnerabilitätskomponenten erarbeitet wurde. Hierfür wurden mehrere Ansätze diskutiert, die jedoch Vor- und Nachteile besitzen. Diese sollten vor der Anwendung von zukünftigen Studien daher ebenfalls sorgfältig abgewogen werden. Darüber hinaus hat sich gezeigt, dass ein Potential besteht einige Ansätze zu vereinfachen, jedoch sind hierfür weitere Untersuchungen nötig. Insgesamt konnte die Dissertation die Anwendung von Vulnerabilitätsstudien als Werkzeug zur Unterstützung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen stärken.

The rising temperature of the earth due to climate change has shown to alter the variations of hydro-climate variables, including their intensities, frequencies and durations. Extreme events such as floods are, in particular, susceptible to any disturbances in climate cycles. As such it is important to provide policymakers with sufficient knowledge about the probable impacts of climate change on hydrologic extremes and most importantly on floods, which have the highest impacts on the societies. For this reason analysis of hydro-climate extremes is commonly performed using data at each site (or grid cell), however due to the limited number of extreme events, these analyses are not robust. Current methods, such as the regional frequency analysis, which combine data from different locations are incapable of incorporating the spatial structure of the data as well as other explanatory variables, and do not explicitly, assess the uncertainties. In this thesis the spatial hierarchical Bayesian model is proposed for hydro-climate extreme analyses using data recorded at each site or grid. This method combines limited number of data from different locations, estimates the uncertainties in different stages of the hierarchy, incorporates additional explanatory variables (covariates), and can be used to estimate extreme events at un-gaged sites. The first project develops a spatial hierarchical Bayesian method to model the extreme runoffs over two spatial domains in the Columbia River Basin, U.S. The model is also employed to estimate floods with different return levels within time slices of fifteen years in order to detect possible trends in runoff extremes. Continuing on the extreme analysis, the impact of climate change on runoff extremes is investigated over the whole Pacific Northwest (PNW). This study aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes will change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes, and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes. Given the increasing number of climate model simulations the goal of the third project is to provide a multi-model ensemble average of hydro-climate extremes and characterize the inherent uncertainties. Outputs from several regional climate models provided by NARCCAP are considered for the analysis in all seasons. Three combination scenarios are defined and compared for multi-modeling of extreme runoffs. The biases of each scenario are calculated and the scenario with the least bias is selected for projecting seasonal runoff extremes. The aim of the fourth project is to quantify and compare the uncertainties regarding global climate models to the ones from the hydrologic model structures in climate change impact studies. Various methods have been proposed to downscale the coarse resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) climatological variables to the fine scale regional variables; however fewer studies have been focused on the selection of GCM predictors. Additionally, the results obtained from one downscaling technique may not be robust and the uncertainties related to the downscaling scheme are not realized. To address these issues, in the fifth study we employed Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for predictor selection which determines spatially independent GCM variables (as discussed in Appendix A). Cross validation of the independent components is employed to find the predictor combination that describes the regional precipitation over the upper Willamette basin with minimum error. These climate variables along with the observed precipitation are used to calibrate three downscaling models: Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS).

The main objective of this thesis is to develop a robust statistical model by accounting the non-linear relationships between hospital admissions due to lower respiratory (LR) disease and factors of climate and pollution, and their delayed effects on hospital admissions. This study also evaluates whether the model fits can be improved by considering the non-linearity of the data, delayed effect of the significant factors, and thus calculate threshold levels of the significant climate and pollution factors for emergency LR hospital admissions. For the first time three unique administrative datasets were merged: Hospital Episode Statistics, Met office observational data for climate factors, and data from London Air Quality Network. The results of the final GLM, showed that daily temperature, rain, wind speed, sun hours, relative humidity, and PM10 significantly affected the LR emergency hospital admissions. Then, we developed a Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) model considering the significant climate and pollution factors. Time and ‘day of the week’ was incorporated as linear terms in the final model. Higher temperatures around ≥270C a quicker effect of 0-2 days lag but lower temperatures (≤00C) had delayed effects of 5-25 days lag. Humidity showed a strong immediate effect (0-3 days) of the low relative humidity at around ≤40% and a moderate effect for higher humidity (≥80%) with lag period of 0-2 days. Higher PM10 around ≥70-μg/m3 has both shorter (0-3 days) and longer lag effects (15-20 days) but the latter one is stronger comparatively. A strong effect of wind speed around ≥25 knots showed longer lag period of 8-15 days. There is a moderate effect for a shorter lag period of 0-3 days for lower wind speed (approximately 2 knots). We also notice a stronger effect of sun hours around ≥14 hours having a longer lag period of 15-20 days and moderate effect between 1-2 hours of 5-12 days lag. Similarly, higher amount of rain (≥30mm) has stronger effects, especially for the shorter lag of 0-2 days and longer lag of 7- 10 days. So far, very little research has been carried out on DLNM model in such research area and setting. This PhD research will contribute to the quantitative assessment of delayed and non-linear lag effects of climate and pollutants for the Greater London region. The methodology could easily be replicated on other disease categories and regions and not limited to LR admissions. The findings may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policies to reduce and prevent the impact of climate change on health problems.

Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2013.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 87-97).
The climate change mitigation potential of energy technologies depends on how their lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compare to global climate stabilization goals. Current methods for comparing technologies, which assess impacts over an arbitrary, fixed time horizon, do not acknowledge the critical link between technology choices and climate dynamics. In this thesis, I ask how we can use information about the temporal characteristics of greenhouse gases to design new metrics for comparing energy technologies. I propose two new metrics: the Cumulative Climate Impact (CCI) and Instantaneous Climate Impact (ICI). These metrics use limited information about the climate system, such as the year when stabilization occurs, to calculate tradeoffs between greenhouse gases, and hence the technologies that emit these gases. The CCI and ICI represent a middle ground between current metrics and commonly-proposed alternatives, in terms of their level of complexity and information requirements. I apply the CCI and ICI to evaluate the climate change mitigation potential of energy technologies in the transportation sector, with a focus on alternative fuels. I highlight key policy debates about the role of (a) natural gas as a "bridge" to a low carbon energy future and (b) third generation biofuels as a long-term energy solution. New metrics shed light on critical timing-related questions that current metrics gloss over. If natural gas is a bridge fuel, how long is this bridge? If algae biofuels are not commercially viable for the next twenty years, can they still provide a significant climate benefit? I simulate technology decisions using new metrics, and existing metrics like the Global Warming Potential (GWP), identifying the conditions where new metrics improve on existing methods as well as the conditions under which new metrics fail. I show that metrics of intermediate complexity, such as the CCI and ICI, provide a simple, reliable, and policy-relevant approach to technology evaluation and capture key features of the future climate system. I extend these insights to energy technologies in the electricity sector as well as a variety of environmental impact categories.
by Morgan R. Edwards.
S.M.in Technology and Policy

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), the global mean temperature has increased by 0,7 °C during the last 100 years and, as a consequence, the hydrological cycle has intensified with, for example, more intense rainfall events. As urban drainage systems have been developed over a long period of time and design criteria are based upon climatic characteristics, these changes will affect the systems and the city accordingly.The overall objective of this thesis is to increase the knowledge about urban drainage in a changing climate. In more detail, the objective is to investigate how climate change may affect urban drainage systems, and also to suggest methods for these investigations.The thesis consists of four papers. The first paper concentrates on the Delta change method for adaptation of rainfall data from climate models for urban hydrology use. The second paper is an impact assessment with urban drainage model simulation of a study area in the south of Sweden. The third paper is also an impact study, from a cause and effect approach, where the whole urban water is included. Finally, the fourth paper contains a strategy and suggestions about tools to use for assessing impacts on urban drainage systems due to climate change. The suggested tools are urban drainage model simulations, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and risk analysis methods.The Delta change approach is feasible for handling the differences in spatial and temporal resolution between climate model data and the needs for urban drainage model simulations, as the method is relatively simple and the temporal resolution of observed rainfall series is preserved. In the study area with separated storm water system, the model simulations show that the number of surface floods as well as the geographical distribution of the floods increases in the future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Future precipitation will also increase both the flooding frequency and the duration of floods; therefore, the need to handle future situations in urban drainage systems and to have a well-planned strategy to cope with future conditions is evident. The overall impacts on urban drainage systems due to increased precipitation may, for example, be an increased number of basement floods, surface floods, problems with property and road drainage, and also increased amount of infiltration into pipes and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). The knowledge gained from this thesis, and the strategy suggested, can be used as a starting point for impact studies on urban drainage systems. Since most impacts concern several different disciplines and a multifunctional understanding, the studies should also be performed in cooperation with parties concerned.
Godkänd; 2007; 20071010 (karober)

The global mean surface temperature rise was observed in the past century and proved the warming of the earth climate system. Global warming is believed to continue into the next decades due to unprecedented increases in greenhouse gas emissions. As a consequence of global warming, extreme weather scenarios are also expected to occur more frequently. In such a context, it is of vital importance to assess the impacts of climate change on the operational performance of power systems. This thesis investigates the impacts of climate change on the operational performance of power systems. The future climate is simulated based on emission scenarios and is then used as an input to the thermal models of power system components to assess their ratings and ageing, and further the reliability of the system. This research contributes to a number of areas in power system research. In the literature review, the risks that climate change may cause to power systems are identified. The models used for the simulation of future climate are firstly introduced. The weather variables that can be simulated from the models include air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and direction, soil moisture and soil temperature. Among the models, the one for soil temperature is originally developed in this thesis. Following this, the component thermal models of overhead line, cable and transformer, from different standards are compared and selected. After that, the sensitivity of component ratings to individual weather variables is investigated, as a preliminary study for the later research in this thesis. Then, the impacts of climate change on component ratings (including both static and dynamic rating) are comprehensively and probabilistically assessed. The assessment results indicate the reduction of component ratings due to climate change. The impacts of climate change on system reliability is further examined on the IEEE Reliability Test System. Results demonstrate and quantify the reduction of both component ratings and system reliability, and prove that the dynamic rating can be used to mitigate the reduction. Finally, the preliminary exploration of transformer ageing is carried out and shows an increased ageing rate due to air temperature rises.

The conventional approach to the frequency analysis of extreme rainfall is complicated by non-stationarity resulting from climate change. In this study significant trends in extreme rainfall are detected using statistical trend tests (Mann-Kendall test and t-test) for all over the Korean Peninsula. The violation of the stationarity for 1 hour annual maximum series is detected for large part of the area especially for southwestern and northeastern regions. For stations showing non-stationarity, the non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model with a location parameter in the form of linear function of time makes significant improvement in modeling rainfall extremes when compared to the stationary GEV model. The Bartlett-Lewis rainfall model is used to generate annual maximum series for the purpose of generating the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve. Using 100 sets of 50 year synthetic annual maxima, it is found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series are reasonably represented by the model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the climate change scenario from the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) regional climate model into IDF estimates. The IDF curves for the future period 2040-2079 show highest estimates for all return periods and rainfall durations. The future IDF estimates show significant difference from the IDF estimates of the historical period (1968-2000). Overall, IDF curves show an increasing tendency over time. A historical and future climate simulation is evaluated over the Colorado River Basin using a 111-year simulation (1969-2079) of the WRF climate change scenario. We find the future projections show statistically significant increases in temperature with larger increases in the northern part of the basin. There are statistically insignificant increases in precipitation, while snowfall shows a statistically significant decrease throughout the period in all but the highest elevations and latitudes. The strongest decrease in snowfall is seen at high elevations in the southern part of the basin and low elevations in the northern part of the basin.

Recent trends in global energy systems have seen a rapid uptake in renewable generation, however, few studies have investigated the impacts of inter-annual climate variability and climate change on power system operation. This thesis aims to explore these impacts for the GB power system. Multi-decadal re-analysis and climate model datasets are used to create demand and wind power time-series as inputs for a load duration curve based power system assessment. Using the MERRA reanalysis, it was found that all aspects of the GB power system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, but the impacts are most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of climate variability are amplified by increasing onshore wind power capacity, and decreased by increasing offshore wind power capacity. The GB power system model is most sensitive to winter weather. A system with no installed wind power capacity is driven by inter-annual variability in temperatures. As the amount of installed wind power capacity is increased, the power system becomes increasingly sensitive to variability in winds. It was found that more than 10 years of climate data are required to adequately sample the impacts of inter-annual variability of climate on the power system. In the HiGEM 4XCO2 climate scenario, mean winter demand reduces (-6%) while mean summer demand increases (+5%) primarily due to warmer temperatures. These changes result in a reduction in the use of conventional generation (-30%) and peak load (-6%). Furthermore, suggesting that climate change may somewhat counteract the increases in inter-annual power system variability which would otherwise be associated with increasing installed wind power capacity.

Understanding the conflict potential of climate variability is critical for assessing and dealing with the societal implications of climate change. Yet, it remains poorly understood under what circumstances – and how – extreme weather events and variation in precipitation patterns affect organized violence. This dissertation suggests that the impacts of climate variability on organized violence are conditional on specific climate patterns, the sensitivity of livelihoods, and state governance. These theoretical conjectures are subjected to novel empirical tests in four individual essays. Three essays investigate the relationship between climate variability and communal and civil conflict through sub-national quantitative analysis focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa. The fourth essay sheds light on causal mechanisms leading to participation in land-related conflict based on interview material on 75 ex-participants in violence from Mt. Elgon, Kenya. Essay I suggests that the exposure of vulnerable agricultural livelihoods to sustained drought increases the risk of civil conflict violence. Essay II indicates that rainfall anomalies increase the risk of communal violence, an effect which is amplified by political marginalization. Essay III finds support for the proposition that volatility in resource supply increases the risk of communal conflict over land and water in remote regions, which tend to have limited state presence. Essay IV proposes that individuals depending on agriculture are prone to participate in land-related conflict as they face impediments to leaving a conflict zone, and additionally have high incentives to partake in fighting for land. Taken together, the dissertation furthers our understanding of the specific economic and political context under which climate variability impacts armed conflict. This knowledge is important for conflict-sensitive adaptation to climate change and conflict prevention efforts.

Magister Artium - MA
This thesis investigates the influence of climate change and climatic variability on wetland ecosystems (coastal and inland wetlands) on the Agulhas coastal plain. Firstly, this research examines coastal wetland ecosystem resilience to sea level rise by modelling sea level rise trajectories for the Droё River wetland. The rate of sediment accretion was modelled relative to IPCC sea level rise estimates for multiple RCP scenarios. For each scenario, inundation by neap and spring tide and the 2-, 4- and 8-year recurrence interval water level was modelled over a period of 200 years. When tidal variation is considered, the rate of sediment accretion exceeds rising sea levels associated with climate change, resulting in no major changes in terms of inundation. When sea level rise scenarios were modelled in conjunction with the recurrence interval water levels, flooding of the coastal wetland was much greater than current levels for the 1 in 4 and 1 in 8 year events. The study suggests that for this wetland, variability of flows may be a key factor contributing to wetland resilience. Secondly, the thesis examines the variability of open wetland water surface areas and their relation to rainfall to determine wetland hydrological inputs for the Nuwejaars wetland system and respective wetlands. A remote sensing approach was adopted, Landsat 5 TM and 8 OLI multispectral imagery were used to detect changes of water surfaces for the period 1989 to 2017. Water surfaces were enhanced and extracted using the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index of Xu (2006). The coefficient of variation of wetland water surface area was determined. The variability ranges from low to high for respective wetlands. A correlation analysis of wetland water surfaces and local and catchment rainfall for the preceding 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 and 24 months was undertaken. The preceding month and associated inputs explains the annual variability of surface waters. The study suggests that, the variability of wetland water surface area are related to variations to water inputs and groundwater, as well as variations in water outputs such as evapotranspiration and an outlet channel.

The subantarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs, 47◦S-38◦E) are classified as isolated and hostile regions, in which the terrestrial and marine ecosystems are relatively simple and extremely sensitive to perturbations. The island’s location, between the Subantarctic Front (SAF) and the Polar Front (PF), bordering the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) provides an ideal natural laboratory for studying how organisms, ecological processes and ecosystems respond to a changing climate in the Southern Ocean. Recent studies have proposed that climate changes reported at the islands may correspond in time to a southward shift of the ACC and in particular of the SAF. This southward migration in the geographic position of major ocean fronts is likely to coincide with dramatic changes in the distribution of species and total productivity of this region. However, there are other sources of variability in the hydrodynamic conditions around the PEIs: upstream of the islands, at the South West Indian Ridge (SWIR), a region of high eddy kinetic activity produces mesoscale features that directly irrigate the PEIs and may impact their marine environment. Based on satellite altimetry in that region, the positions of the SAF and PF were found to be highly variable at interannual and monthly time scales. They also revealed a significant long-term southward trend which was highlighted at the Southern Ocean scale. The mesoscale activity also showed an interannual and intra-annual variability and a decrease in eddy kinetic energy over 24 years was observed in the region. At a more local scale, we highlighted that the archipelago’s environment was impacted by the mesoscale features produced at the SWIR. The temperature, the mixed layer and velocities recorded between the islands were clearly affected by the eddies passing in the vicinity of the PEIs. Moreover, a large signal dominating the main current time series appeared to be a tidal signal, another important driver of variability of the circulation in between the two islands. On a second hand, an idealised model configuration was designed for the PEIs region to study the mesoscale eddy properties and the physical mechanisms of their formation at the ridge. The Eddy Available Potential Energy revealed a maximum of energy around 800 m depth, confirming the deep reaching characteristic of the eddy originated in the region and suggested the presence of a local energy source at this depth. This eddies activity was shown to be the result of a combination of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities occurring at the ridge. Finally, we investigated on the potential consequences of a southward shift of the SAF in the region of the islands. Because the model was idealised, it allowed us to simulate an SAF southward shift by shifting the initial and boundary conditions. The main result was the clear decrease of mesoscale activity in the region which could potentially impact the ecosystems of the PEIs.

Impacts of Climate-responsive Controls and Land Usage on Regional Climate and Air Quality Marcus A. Trail 201 pages Directed by Dr. Armistead G. Russell Regional air quality impacts public health, visibility and ecosystem health, and is significantly affected by changes in climate, land use and pollutant emissions. Predictions of regional air quality responses to such changes can help inform policy makers in the development of effective approaches to both reduce greenhouse gases and improve air quality. However, major sources of uncertainty exist in predicting future air quality including limitations in the tools used to project future emissions, land use changes and uncertainties associated with predicting future climate. Recently, technical advances in downscaling global climate simulations to regional scales, and, the development of bottom-up operational tools used to forecast emissions have enhanced our ability to account for the complex interactions between population, socio-economic development, technological change, and federal and regional environmental policies. The results show that emissions reductions strategies will continue to play a vital role in improving air quality over the U.S. while CO2 emission reduction policies can have mixed positive and negative impacts on air quality. However, additional costs will be necessary to reach air quality goals due to climate change because deeper emission reductions will be required to compensate for a warmer climate, even if current efforts are predicted to show improvement. The results of this study also show that regional climate and O3 and aerosol concentrations are highly sensitive to reforestation and cropland conversion in the Southeast and these land use changes should be considered in air quality management plans.

Lake ecosystems across the globe have responded to climate warming of recent decades. However, correctly attributing observed changes to altered climatic conditions is complicated by multiple anthropogenic influences on lakes. This thesis contributes to a better understanding of climate impacts on freshwater phytoplankton, which forms the basis of the food chain and decisively influences water quality. The analyses were, for the most part, based on a long-term data set of physical, chemical and biological variables of a shallow, polymictic lake in north-eastern Germany (Müggelsee), which was subject to a simultaneous change in climate and trophic state during the past three decades. Data analysis included constructing a dynamic simulation model, implementing a genetic algorithm to parameterize models, and applying statistical techniques of classification tree and time-series analysis. Model results indicated that climatic factors and trophic state interactively determine the timing of the phytoplankton spring bloom (phenology) in shallow lakes. Under equally mild spring conditions, the phytoplankton spring bloom collapsed earlier under high than under low nutrient availability, due to a switch from a bottom-up driven to a top-down driven collapse. A novel approach to model phenology proved useful to assess the timings of population peaks in an artificially forced zooplankton-phytoplankton system. Mimicking climate warming by lengthening the growing period advanced algal blooms and consequently also peaks in zooplankton abundance. Investigating the reasons for the contrasting development of cyanobacteria during two recent summer heat wave events revealed that anomalously hot weather did not always, as often hypothesized, promote cyanobacteria in the nutrient-rich lake studied. The seasonal timing and duration of heat waves determined whether critical thresholds of thermal stratification, decisive for cyanobacterial bloom formation, were crossed. In addition, the temporal patterns of heat wave events influenced the summer abundance of some zooplankton species, which as predators may serve as a buffer by suppressing phytoplankton bloom formation. This thesis adds to the growing body of evidence that lake ecosystems have strongly responded to climatic changes of recent decades. It reaches beyond many previous studies of climate impacts on lakes by focusing on underlying mechanisms and explicitly considering multiple environmental changes. Key findings show that climate impacts are more severe in nutrient-rich than in nutrient-poor lakes. Hence, to develop lake management plans for the future, limnologists need to seek a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of overlapping effects of the multi-faceted human footprint on aquatic ecosystems.
Weltweit haben Seeökosysteme auf den Klimawandel der letzten Jahrzehnte reagiert. Beobachtete Veränderungen eindeutig dem Klimawandel zuzuordnen, wird jedoch häufig dadurch erschwert, dass Seen gleichzeitig vielfachen anthropogenen Einflüssen ausgesetzt sind. Diese Arbeit trägt zu einem besseren Verständnis des Klimaeinflusses auf Algen bei, die am Anfang der Nahrungskette stehen und maßgeblich die Wasserqualität eines Sees beeinflussen können. Zum größten Teil stützt sich die Arbeit auf eine dreißigjährige Datenreihe eines unregelmäßig geschichteten Flachsees im Nordosten von Deutschland (Müggelsee), in dem sowohl steigende Wassertemperaturen als auch sinkende Nährstoffeinträge zu verzeichnen waren. Bei der Datenanalyse wurde ein neu erstelltes dynamisches Simulationsmodell, genetische Algorithmen zur Parametrisierung von Modellen, und statistische Methoden der Klassifizierung und Zeitreihenanalyse genutzt. Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass nicht nur klimatische Faktoren sondern auch die Nährstoffverfügbarkeit im See den Zeitpunkt der Algenfrühjahrsblüte (Phänologie) beeinflussen. Durch eine Veränderung der Mechanismen, die zum Kollaps der Blüte führen, trat diese trotz ähnlich milder Winterbedingungen bei hoher Nährstoffverfügbarkeit früher auf als bei niedriger. Ein neuentwickelter Ansatz zur Modellierung von Phänologie erwies sich als geeignet, um vorherzusagen, wann Algen und ihre Räuber in einem künstlich periodisch angetriebenen Laborsystem ihre Populationshöhepunkte erreichten. Eine Verlängerung der Wachstumsperiode führte dazu, dass diese früher auftraten. Die Untersuchung, warum sich Blaualgen im betrachteten See während jüngster Hitzewellenereignisse überraschend unterschiedlich entwickelt hatten, ergab, dass ungewöhnlich warmes Wetter nicht wie häufig vermutet generell förderlich für ihre Entwicklung ist. Der Zeitpunkt und die Dauer der Hitzewellen waren entscheidend dafür, ob für Blaualgen kritische Schwellenwerte der thermischen Schichtung im See überschritten wurden. Zudem zeigte sich, dass saisonale Erwärmungsmuster einen bedeutenden Einfluss auf Räuber nahmen, die das Auftreten von Algenblüten verhindern können. Diese Arbeit reiht sich in eine wachsende Anzahl von Studien ein, die zeigen, dass Seeökosysteme bereits stark auf die Klimaveränderungen der letzen Jahrzehnte reagiert haben. Mit ihrem Fokus auf Mechanismen und der expliziten Berücksichtigung simultaner anthropogener Einflüsse geht diese Arbeit gleichzeitig über viele bisherige Studien hinaus, die sich auf reine Beobachtung und die Betrachtung klimatischer Faktoren beschränkten. Kernergebnisse deuten daraufhin, dass Klimafolgen in nährstoffreichen Seen stärker ausfallen als in nährstoffarmen Seen. Nur mit einem umfassenden, mechanistischen Verständnis des vielfältigen anthropogenen Einflusses wird eine hohe Wasserqualität in Seen auch in Zukunft aufrechtzuerhalten sein.

Adaptation to past changes in the climate of Britain may be indicative of the way in which society will respond to future climate change. The long run costs associated with climate change are, once full adaptation has occurred, not obviously detrimental. Furthermore even if the frequency of 'extreme events' such as floods and storms increases it is not apparent that these will necessarily be as detrimental to society as they currently might seem since society in effect chooses its exposure to extreme events. Some extreme events such as hard frosts are likely to decrease in frequency. The thesis uses the theory of hedonic prices to examine the role of climate variables in explaining differences in average residential land prices and wage rates relating to 127 English and Welsh counties, Scottish regions, metropolitan areas and London boroughs. Substantial evidence is found in favour of the hypothesis that compensating land price differentials exist for climate variables. An alternative approach to estimating amenity values is to argue that households respond in part to differing levels of environmental amenities by altering their patterns of consumption. This phenomenon can be given a 'Household Production Function' interpretation. Given the assumption of 'demand dependency' between climate variables and marketed commodities it is possible to determine the amenity value of climate change from market data. Using cross country data for 60 countries the analysis points unambiguously to the existence of a 'climatic optimum'. The hedonic technique can also be used as a means of determining the value to British agriculture of a marginal change in climate. In the hedonic approach sale price differentials between land characterised by different climates is given an interpretation in terms of underlying productivity differences. Data characterising over 400 separate transactions in farmland is analysed and the value of marginal changes in climatic variables computed. The analysis suggests that the financial value of climate variables to farmers could in some cases be quite high and also that changes in seasonal patterns and the frequency of 'extreme events' are quite important. The impact of climate change on the chosen destinations of British tourists is also investigated. Destinations are characterised in terms of various 'attractors' including climate variables, travel costs and accommodation costs. Together these variables are used to explain the observed pattern of overseas travel in terms of a model based on the precept of utility maximisation. This approach permits the changes in consumer surplus following climate change to be predicted and effectively identifies the 'optimal' climate for generating tourism. It is argued that British tourists are likely to experience a large gain in welfare in the sense that the attributes of nearby (low cost) locations improve following climate change. Finally, information on marginal willingness to pay for climatic amenities is combined with predictions concerning the scale and direction of possible climate change over Britain in order to provide a money measure of the welfare impact of such changes. Because households appear to prefer a climate characterised by much higher temperatures than currently prevail over Britain households reap large gains from climate change.

Climate change is a global issue and the effects on fish populations remain largely unknown. It is thought that climate change could affect fish at all levels of biological organisation, from cellular, individual, population and community. This thesis has taken a holistic approach to examine the ways in which climate change could affect fish from both tropical, marine ecosystems (Great Barrier Reef, Australia) and temperate, freshwater ecosystems (non-tidal River Thames, Britain). Aerobic scope of coral reef fish tested on the Great Barrier Reef was significantly reduced by just a 2°C rise in water temperature (31, 32 and 33°C, compared to the current summer mean of 29°C) due to increased resting oxygen consumption and an inability to increase the maximal oxygen uptake. A 0.3 unit decline in pH, representative of ocean acidification, caused the same percentage loss in aerobic scope as did a 3°C warming. Interfamilial differences in ability to cope aerobically with warming waters will likely lead to changes in the community structure on coral reefs with damselfish replacing cardinalfish. Concerning Britain, there is evidence of gradual warming and increased rainfall in winter months over a 150 year period, suggesting that British fish are already experiencing climate change. It was evident from an analysis of a 15 year dataset on fish populations in the River Thames, that cyprinid species displayed a different pattern in biomass and density to all the non-cyprinid fish population, suggesting that there will be interfamilial differences in responses to climate change. Using a Biological Indicator Approach on the three-spined stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a 2°C rise in water temperature resulted in a stress response at the cellular and whole organism level. A 6°C rise in temperature resulted in a stress response at the biochemical level (higher cortisol and glucose concentrations), cellular level (higher neutrophil: lymphocyte ratio) and whole organism level (higher ventilation rate and lowered condition factor, hepatosomatic index and growth). G. aculeatus is considered to be temperature tolerant; therefore these results indicate that climate change may prove to be stressful for more temperature-sensitive species. This study has demonstrated that climate change will have direct effects on fish populations, whether they are in temperate regions such as Britain or in tropical coral reefs, but with strong interfamilial differences in those responses.

It is widely understood that the environment is critical for the preservation of historic collections and interiors, if the environment is unsuitable it can create an increased risk of damage. In historic houses collections are usually on open display, and the room environment often has little control thus it is vulnerable to changes in the outdoor environment. The future outdoor environment is projected to change so the aim of this work has been to develop a widely applicable model to investigate the potential impact of climate change on historic interiors. A simple transfer function has been used to predict indoor temperature and relative humidity. The method is widely applicable and easily transferable between unheated buildings. It has been shown that it is important to assess each location and room on an individual basis. The method has been coupled with future climate output, from both the UKCP09 weather generator and the Hadley model, where data has been downscaled. The high resolution climate output allows for projections of future indoor environment. Future temperature is projected to increase in unheated historic houses around the UK and across Europe, although less than outdoors. Annual average relative humidity is largely unchanged in the future. Damage functions are used to determine the impact of the future indoor environment on materials. Typically temperature driven damage such as chemical degradation of paper and silk and insect pest activity increase in the future, whereas damage driven by relative humidity, such as salt transitions, depends upon the location assessed. In general risk of mould growth increases, and dimensional changes to wood decrease. The significance of future changes is an important consideration, requiring some further work. Annual averages are shown to hide seasonal changes, thus it is important to assess these, which can impact upon management strategies. At Knole it is projected that the summer humidity will decrease and the winter humidity increase slightly, which raises the risk of mould growth. The application of conservation heating has been shown to be less effective in future, but is still an effective strategy, although dehumidification may become more appropriate in some locations. The future energy use of conservation heating has a negligible change. There are a number of inherent uncertainties associated with the models used here. Specifically with climate modelling, future emissions are unknown and the physical processes of the climate are not fully understood. There is a statistical error associated with the transfer function, and the damage functions also have a number of related uncertainties. It is important to consider these when assessing future indoor projections. The results allow for long term planning by collection managers, to prepare for the impact of climate change, thus preserving heritage for future generations.

Bei den Schätzungen der künftigen Auswirkungen bleiben die globalen Ungleichheiten der sozioökonomischen Bedingungen meist unberücksichtigt, die für die tatsächliche Fähigkeit der Systeme, viele der Anpassungsmaßnahmen umzusetzen, entscheidend sein werden. Um das zu erwartende Ausmaß der Anpassung auf der Grundlage wirtschaftlicher, finanzieller, menschlicher, technologischer und anderer Kapazitäten besser bestimmen zu können, sollten Projektionen der Klimaauswirkungen und der daraus resultierenden Verluste und Schäden die Koevolution zwischen Klimagefahren und sozioökonomischer Entwicklung berücksichtigen. In dieser Arbeit werden verschiedene Bereiche der Klimawissenschaft miteinander verknüpft, um ein Instrumentarium zur besseren Darstellung der Anpassung in quantitativen Modellierungsinstrumenten anzubieten. Der Ansatz bettet die sozioökonomischen Barrieren in den Szenariorahmen der Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) ein, um quantitative Pfade der Anpassungsfähigkeit zu erstellen. Die Integration der Anpassungsfähigkeit in den Szenarioraum ermöglicht eine differenziertere Operationalisierung der Anpassung in der quantitativen Modellierung. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit werden zwei Erweiterungen des Szenariorahmens vorgestellt, die sich auf Indikatoren für die Regierungsführung und die Gleichstellung der Geschlechter als zwei der wichtigsten Hindernisse für die Anpassung konzentrieren. Im zweiten Teil werden zwei Anwendungen der Anpassungsfähigkeit für die Sektoren Gesundheit und Landwirtschaft vorgestellt, die den Zusammenhang zwischen sozioökonomischen Bedingungen und der unterschiedlichen Anfälligkeit für mögliche Klimastressoren aufzeigen. Das hier vorgestellte Toolkit eignet sich in erster Linie für den Einsatz in quantitativen Bewertungen von Auswirkungen und alternativen politischen Optionen, um anpassungsrelevante Informationen einzubeziehen, damit der Klimawandel unter verschiedenen sozioökonomischen Szenarien robuster dargestellt werden kann.
Adaptation to climate change can substantially reduce the negative impacts of climate change, but quantitative estimates of future impacts tend to disregard global inequalities in socio-economic conditions, which will be decisive for the systems’ actual ability to deploy many of the adaptation measures. To better ascertain the degree of adaptation that can be expected based on economic, financial, human, technological and other capacities, projections of climate impacts and the ensuing loss and damage should account for the co-evolution between climate hazards and socio-economic development. To this end, this thesis connects several areas of climate change science to offer a toolkit for improving the representation of adaptation in quantitative modeling tools. The approach shown here embeds the socio-economic barriers to into the scenario framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to establish quantitative pathways of adaptive capacity. Integrating adaptive capacity in the scenario space opens opportunities for a more nuanced operationalization of adaptation in quantitative modeling. In the first half of the thesis, two extensions of the scenario framework are presented, focusing on indicators of governance and gender equality as two of the key barriers to adaptation that have not yet been part of the set of indicators in the SSPs. The second half of the thesis showcases two sectoral applications of adaptive capacity for the health and agriculture sectors, demonstrating the relationship between socioeconomic conditions and differential vulnerability to possible climate stressors. The toolkit presented in this thesis is primarily suited for use in quantitative assessments of impacts and alternative policy options to incorporate adaptation-relevant information, with the ultimate goal of a more robust representation of climate change under different socio-economic development scenarios.

Critical infrastructure is a term used by governments to describe assets that are essential for the functioning of a modern society and its economy. Most commonly associated with this term are facilities for water supply, oil and gas distribution, power grids, telecommunications, transportation, financial services (banking and finance), and security services (military, police, etc.). Scholarly risk research on critical infrastructures has been motivated by fear of attack since September, 2001. Although, it may seem reasonable that protection from attack would include climate change impact, this has not been the case. Therefore, a research gap on climate change impact risk assessment on critical infrastructures, and their interdependencies , exists. This study attempts to fulfil two purposes in this regard: 1) the assessment of climate change impact risk; and 2) the propagation of the risk due to interdependency. Although, climate change impact is the primary interest in this study, the impact coverag could be extended to include other impacts, either natural and/or man-made, which have drawn worldwide economic concern. Since infrastructures are connected, it is insufficient to assess impact on one without considering the consequences on the dependent others. This problem of determining the impact cascading from one critical infrastructure to another , as well as throughout an entire economy, with detrimental consequences, has attained equal impetus. For example, the recent global financial crisis has exacerbated concerns about risk due to interdependency. Thus, the drive into interdependency analysis is imperative when assessing the impact risk from one location, and the subsequent ripple impacts among the interconnected infrastructures.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith School of Engineering
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
Full Text

Approximately half of the public schools in the United States require uniforms or a formal dress policy and many are intended to reduce discipline problems and improve school climate. A suburban school district in Georgia recognized that there was an increase in discipline problems in their schools that affected the school climate. In an effort to promote school safety and improve climate, stakeholders at a district campus adopted a uniform policy. The purpose of this survey study was to examine the differences in perceived school climate between a district campus with a uniform policy and a similar campus with no uniform policy. The theoretical framework of this study was based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs. The American School Climate Survey-Teacher Version was sent electronically to all teachers from the 2 study sites. The final sample included 62 respondents, 32 from the school with uniforms and 30 from the school without uniforms. Mann-Whitney tests were used to test for differences in survey responses between the 2 groups. The climate of the school that required uniforms was rated significantly higher on 14 of the 25 survey items, including safety, reduced bullying, and improved student learning. There were no differences between group scores for the remaining survey items. Implications for positive social change include providing the findings to the local site as an initial step in investigating school climate and the possible impact of school uniforms. With increased information, the study district can make more informed decisions regarding the use of school uniforms, which might improve safety, reduce bullying, and improve student learning in the district.

Floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters, with strong impacts on both society and economy. Flood hazard estimation is an essential tool for protecting the population from floods both financially, via insurance policies, and physically, via water management and engineering. In the last decades, new approaches based on hydrological and hydraulical modelling emerged as viable, which allows for a more robust and reproducible physically-based estimation of flood extent and water level. In this work a multimodel approach has been adopted, with a hydrological model driven by multiple sources of precipitation input data, generating discharge data for a given region or basin for a long time period. The discharge is then fed to a hydrodynamic model which produces of flood extents and, if necessary, other variables such as flood depth or flow speed. Extreme value analysis is also used to derive any Return Period value (ranging from 10 to 500 years) starting from a shorter observational record, by assuming a given distribution for extreme events. We propose a methodology to simulate flood hazard for any return period, based on a model chain comprised of three models: the Regional Climate Model RegCM, the hydrological model CHyM and the hydraulical model CA2D. In order to provide observed precipitation data as input to the hydrological model, we created a new product called GRIPHO (GRidded Italian Precipitation Hourly Observations), which consists of quality checked hourly precipitation observations over the complete Italian territory. We validate GRIPHO against other state-of-the-art precipitation datasets over Italy, showing good performance in reproducing both mean and extreme precipitation: GRIPHO is comparable with the high resolution ARCIS and EURO4M-APGD datasets in Northern Italy, and shows finer spatial details and more consistent extremes than E-OBS in the rest of the domain. Two regional climate simulations, one run in perfect boundary mode (with ERA-Interim) and one a scenario simulation (driven with HadGEM, RCP8.5), are described and validated over the Italian territory. Both simulations show good agreement with observations in several precipitation and temperature metrics, for both extreme and mean climate. The projected climate change signal is also evaluated, finding, on average, increased extreme precipitation even in areas where mean precipitation decreases. Three hydrological simulations, driven by both observations and regional climate model outputs, are described. Validation is carried out against a set of discharge stations, finding generally good performance of the CHyM model for the regions where observations are available. Using different metrics, we assess the future changes in mean and extreme discharge for the Italian territory, finding strong increases in possible flood proxies. In particular, mean discharge is projected to increase (decrease) in Northern Italy in winter (summer), which is directly linked to changes in mean precipitation over the Po river basin. In winter and autumn, maximum yearly discharges increase by 50% in several Italian regions, with summer and spring showing more mixed results. 100-year Return Period discharges are projected to increase over most of Italy by more than 100% by the end of the century. Similarly, the frequency of exceedance of extreme discharge thresholds drastically increases in the future scenario compared to the reference period, with changes for the 100-year threshold exceeding 500% for several rivers in Italy, including the Po river. Finally, we present preliminary results over the whole Italian territory for flood maps for different Return Periods, as produced by a hydraulic model fed by simulated discharge data. The resulting maps are compatible with the currently available products obtained from regional environment agencies, but have the advantage of being produced with a coherent, scientific methodology.

It is no more news that climate change and variability are greatly impacting our daily lives. Variations in temperature and extreme event trends that we have witnessed in the past decades are consequences of the increase in greenhouse gases concentration, which are subsequently affecting the Human Health. This in turn, certainly affects the quality of life and general well-being of each individual. This paper is intended to evaluate how climate change and variability is affecting, be it directly or indirectly, the human health, the quality of lives and its economic implications. Given the expansive implications climate change carries on human health, it should be regarded of fundamental importance, not only to doctors and health professionals, but also to individuals in any sphere of life, as no one living in this planet is immune to climate change impacts. Climate change is the greatest pressing threat to human health today, and it must be addressed via a combination of mitigation and adaptation techniques. We can all agree that the current generation has the responsibility and the only chance to reverse the present climate change trend before it is too late for the next one. The global human health effects of climate change are not commonly spoken about as frequently as it should be as it is the cause of many diseases, or at least reason to exacerbate pre-existing conditions. Now, thankfully there is a much greater interest in climate change’s effect on human health, and thanks to a considerable progress in new technologies developed around the world, we are now able to evaluate various climate stressors and their potential health impacts. The issue remains that these impacts have a wide range of repercussion that exacerbate the current and future public health burden as well as socio-economical dimensions. Sadly, those with the least capacity to adapt to climate change are the ones which are most vulnerable, including people of third world countries and disadvantaged populations such as the poor, racial and ethnic minorities in industrialized countries, creating environmental justice imbalance among different countries and areas. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to definitely attribute the responsibilities of climate change impacts to certain countries, even though it’s globally undisputed that most developed countries have unfairly contributed to the vast emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Climate change does not only threaten the physical structure and human health, but it also damages the whole socio-economic structure that is key to maintaining a healthy and stable society. So, what we do today against climate change, is what will define the future wellbeing of our environment. In view of an unavoidable climate change scenario, adequate adaption and aggressive mitigation strategies are the best actions to focus on. This thesis is mainly focusing on highlighting the major impacts of climate change on human health by identifying the direct, indirect and social effects.

The main aim of this thesis is to assess the economic impact of climate change and climatic variability on agriculture in Northeast (NE) Thailand. Climate change is a slow and complex phenomenon. Therefore, decision-making in climate change context involves long-time scales and that have led uncertainties associated with many risks. To assess the impact of climate change in agriculture as well as supporting long-term adaptation planning, long-term climate change scenarios are required. This study achieved this requirement by developing long-term climate change scenarios for NE Thailand under the SRES A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s based upon data from the SEA START RC. One of the more significant findings to emerge from this study is that the assessment of climate change impacts on NE Thailand agriculture through a careful consideration of spatial issues in the Ricardian framework that this study has undertaken would be useful in providing a more accurate picture of the potential impacts of climate change on farmer income in NE Thailand. By the end of the 21st century (2080s), NE Thailand farmers of 62 sub-districts in 8 provinces are expected to experience the severe impact of climate change. A full implementation of the key planned adaptation, the IWRM, would therefore be required to alleviate the risk to climate change in NE Thailand agricultural sector.

This thesis presents the development and application of a downscaling framework for multi site simulation of daily rainfall. The rainfall simulation is achieved in two stages. First, rainfall occurrences at multiple sites are downscaled, which is followed by the generation of daily rainfall amounts at each site identified as wet. A continuous weather state based nonparametric downscaling model conditional on atmospheric predictors and a previous day average rainfall state is developed for simulation of multi site rainfall occurrences. A nonparametric kernel density approach is used for simulation of rainfall amounts at individual sites conditional on atmospheric variables and the previous day rainfall amount. The proposed model maintains spatial correlation of rainfall occurrences by simulating concurrently at all stations and of amounts by using random innovations that are spatially correlated yet serially independent. Temporal dependence is reproduced in the occurrence series by conditioning on previous day average wetness fraction and assuming the weather states to be Markovian, and in the amount series by conditioning on the previous day rainfall amount. The seasonal transition is maintained by simulating rainfall on a day-to-day basis using a moving window formulation. The developed downscaling framework is calibrated using the relevant atmospheric variables and rainfall records of 30 stations around Sydney, Australia. Results indicate a better representation of the spatio-temporal structure of the observed rainfall as compared to existing alternatives. Subsequently, the framework is applied to predict plausible changes in rainfall in warmer conditions using the same set of atmospheric variables for future climate obtained as a General Circulation Model simulation. While the case studies presented are restricted to a specific region, the downscaling model is designed to be useful in any generic catchment modelling and management activity and/or for investigating possible changes that might be experienced by hydrological, agricultural and ecological systems in future climates.

The urban drainage in Brazil has been focused historically in the hydraulic conduction of the runoff. From the 1990\'s a paradigm shift was initiated with the study of LID practices, aiming at adapting the local scenario to compensate the urbanization effects on runoff and reestablish the water cycle as close as possible to the natural. However, there is still a gap regarding the integration of qualitative-quantitative variables and their comprehension. In addition, the temperate climate regions have been in the center of the studies, with still few knowledge about other climates influence in its efficiency. Therefore, this research aimed to evaluate the operation of a bioretention structure in a subtropical climate region, regarding mainly its pollutant treatment capacity and water retention, in an integrated way. The results indicate a positive use of the bioretention in reducing the exceedance risks, by reducing the peak flow, the total volume and the pollutant load transferred downstream. However, adaptations the implementation and operation stages are necessary for subtropical climates. The local specific characteristics, such as soil highly weathered and rainfall with high intensities in short intervals of time, affect the water and pollutant retention efficiency. Further studies evaluating different applications locals and scales, and treatment key factors must be performed.
A drenagem urbana no Brasil esteve focada historicamente no tratamento hidráulico para a condução do escoamento superficial. A partir da década de 90 se inicia uma mudança de paradigma com o estudo de técnicas compensatórias (TCs), visando adaptar o cenário local para compensar os efeitos da urbanização sobre o escoamento superficial, de forma a manter o ciclo hidrológico o mais próximo possível do natural. No entanto, existe ainda uma lacuna quanto a integração das variáveis quali-quantitativas e sua compreensão. No mais, as regiões de clima temperado estiveram no centro dos estudos, havendo pouco conhecimento sobre a influência de outros climas em sua eficiência. Assim, a presente pesquisa teve como objetivo avaliar a operação de uma estrutura de bioretenção em uma região de clima subtropical, quanto a sua capacidade de tratamento da poluição difusa e retenção hídrica de forma integrada. Para tal, foram monitorados dois dispositivos em escalas distintas, sendo essas laboratório e campo. Os resultados obtidos indicaram um uso promissor da bioretenção em reduzir os riscos de enchente, reduzindo a vazão de pico e o volume total transferido à jusante, assim como a carga total de poluentes. No entanto, adaptações nas etapas de implantação e operação são necessárias para clima subtropical. As características específicas desses locais, como solos altamente intemperizados e regimes de chuva de alta intensidade em pequeno intervalo de tempo, afetam a eficiência de retenção hídrica e retenção de poluente. Novos estudos avaliando diversos locais, escalas de aplicação, e fatores-chave para o tratamento devem ser realizados.

Tragic, life-changing, and fatal incidents are a reality on large-scale, civil construction projects. Despite a decline following the enforcement of the 1971 Occupational Safety and Health Act, serious and fatal incidents on heavy construction projects remain higher than that of the active military and have not declined in any notable way in the past decade. Industrial-organizational literature suggested a lack of applied testing for the well-developed theory of authentic leadership (AL) to impact safety outcomes. This quasi-experiment combined the constructs of authentic leadership with safety climate perception as quantifiable measurement of potential safety outcomes in the workplace. The research question focused on whether AL would impact safety climate, thus, reducing injury and fatalities on the job. The researcher examined 1 of the 4 segments that comprised a $1 billion freeway improvement project. Perceptions of 108 field craft personnel were collected on a Likert-type instrument before and after their supervisors attended a brief AL workshop. Utilizing an ordinal scale, statistical significance was calculated pre- and postintervention by computing a Mann-Whitney U for independent samples. Significant improvement was found following the supervisor workshop. The reduction in incidents, when compared to the jobsite’s history and the other 3 jobsite segments associated with the highway improvement project, suggests a potential for this framework to support positive social change, that is, to reduce the human cost and suffering associated with industrial accidents.

The health risks posed by hot weather are growing as increasingly frequent extreme weather is brought about by climate change. People spend upwards of 80% of time indoors and so human health is largely dependent on the internal environment of buildings. In the building industry engineers currently design buildings for high-energy performance by maximising heat retention, and whilst this may be effective in cold winters, it can lead to unbearable indoor conditions in hot summers. Thermal comfort inside buildings is a well-discussed topic both in industry and academia, but absolute peak thresholds, especially for heat stress still require development. In this thesis the outcomes of research into the effects of current and future hot weather on the heat stress of occupants inside buildings are presented. Hot weather data from the current climate and mortality rates are compared and several temperature metrics are analysed with respect to health risk forecasting performance, so that peak threshold limits for human health indoors are established for the building design industry. Reference weather data used in building simulations for health assessment is currently chosen based on air temperature alone. In this thesis new reference weather data is created for near-extreme and extreme weather and for current and future climates, based on the peak threshold metric research and future weather analysis. By 2050 hot weather reference years currently occurring once every seven years could become an annual occurrence, and by 2080 extreme hot weather reference years currently occurring once in twenty-one years could become an annual occurrence. Computational fluid dynamics is then used to simulate the internal heat stress inside a building model, and a surrogate model is created to emulate heat stress levels for full calendar years of future climates for several UK locations. It is envisaged that the results presented in this thesis will help inform the industry development of new reference data and aid better building design.

Marine larvae are a critical life history stage of marine molluscs which will be impacted by climate change. There is a pressing need to understand whether marine molluscs will have the capacity to adapt and persist in this era of rapid change. Transgenerational plasticity is a mechanism for rapid acclimation of marine organisms which result in resilient offspring when exposed to climate change. The overall aim of this thesis was to determine the impact of climate change on the larvae of the native Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata and invasive Pacific oyster Magallana gigas. The main hypothesis tested was that whether responses of larvae would be improved through transgenerational exposure to climate change stress including warming and elevated pCO2CO2 on the morphological, physiological and lipid energetics. The experiments in this thesis showed that the larvae of M. gigas may be more robust than the larvae of S. glomerata when exposed to near future climate change conditions, however, S. glomerata may have a greater scope for transgenerational plasticity to cope with a changing climate. This thesis supports the idea that although transgenerational parental conditioning has been suggested as an acclimatory mechanism for marine organisms to cope with the stress of climate change it may not equally be a panacea to all conditions for all oyster species. This thesis has also demonstrated that larval mortality is not likely due to the expiration of lipid reserves when starved or exposed to warming and acidification. The findings of this thesis suggest that the dynamic between the native S. glomerata and invasive M. gigas may be altered as estuarine change in South eastern Australia accelerates. These findings will inform the global bivalve aquaculture industry worth $44 million to the state of New South Wales and $50 billion to the globe, which is at risk due to global climate change.

From 2022 the Swedish housing council (Boverket) is requiring that all new production houses,with a few exceptions, calculate their climate impact in a climate declaration. This is the firststep of many in order to reach climate neutrality in 2045. The plan is to set limits for maximumemissions from a building project in 2027. Any numbers on what the maximum limit might behas not yet been presented.The climate declaration will include the emission from transports and a few mandatory buildingparts. These parts are load-bearing structural parts, interior walls and climate screens. Thedeveloper has the responsibility that the climate declaration will be sent to the housing councilwhen the project is finished.With this law many actors in different parts of the construction value chain will be affected andwill have to change their routines. The thesis aims to present what adjustments different actorsneed to make and what problems may arise in the making of a climate declaration.The thesis is mainly based on interviews and the practical climate calculation that was done inconnection to the study. Results from the interview shows that much of the climate calculationwork will be sent over to the next instance, for example the developer will most likely requirethat the entrepreneur is responsible for the climate calculation, in turn the entrepreneur ordeveloper will require that the material supplier will calculate their emissions on transports andthe material.The material suppliers are those who likely will be affected the most. Customers will demandEPDs and precise transport distances on their orders to make sure their climate declaration iscorrect. Material suppliers with EPDs on many of their products will be much more attractive tocustomers.The results from the practical climate calculation shows that producing a climate declarationdigitally will not be especially complicated as there is intuitive software to ease the transition,without the need for any greater knowledge. The critical moment will be the resourcecompilation and making sure that the amount of material used is correct. This can be done byestablishing templates and routines at an early stage, and continuously post transports andmaterials used throughout the project.
Från och med 2022 ställer boverket krav att alla nyproducerade byggnader, med ett fåtalundantag, skall redovisa sin klimatpåverkan i en klimatdeklaration. Detta är ett första steg avflera för att minska utsläppen i byggbranschen och senare kunna uppnå klimatneutralitet 2045 ienighet med det klimatpolitiska regelverk som röstades igenom i riksdagen 2017. Planen är attår 2027 kommer referensvärden och gränsvärden att träda i kraft, några precisa siffror har pågränsvärden har ännu inte presenterats.Klimatdeklarationen skall visa utsläppet från transporter, energiåtgång i byggprocessen samt ettantal obligatoriska byggnadsdelar. De byggnadsdelar som måste ingå i en klimatdeklaration ärbärande konstruktionsdelar, innerväggar samt klimatskärmar. Byggherren innehar det ytterstaansvaret att klimatdeklarationen lämnas in till boverket när projektet är färdigställt.I och med lagkravet kommer många företag i olika delar av värdekedjan behöva göraomställningar i sina rutiner och arbetssätt. Undersökningen syftar att presentera vilkaomställningar olika aktörer behöver göra samt vilka problem som kan uppstå i samband medframställning av en klimatdeklaration.Arbetet är till stor del baserat på intervjuer och det praktiska klimatberäkningsarbetet som utförtsi samband med studien. Resultatet från intervjuerna visar att nya krav kommer ställas iupphandlingarna angående klimatdeklarationen, likt det vi ser i arbetet med energideklarationeridag. Byggherren kommer ställa krav i upphandlingen att entreprenören skall utföraklimatberäkningen till exempel. I sin tur kommer entreprenören eller byggherren ställa krav påbyggmaterialleverantören att dessa ska redovisa utsläpp för material och transporter.Aktörerna i värdekedjan som med stor sannolikhet kommer påverkas mest ärmaterialleverantörerna. Kunderna kommer begära EPD-underlag på produkterna och precisatransportsträckor för att enkelt kunna säkerställa att deras klimatdeklaration är korrekt.Materialleverantörerna med EPDer på många av sina produkter kommer bli konkurrenskraftigaframöver.Resultatet från det praktiska arbetet visar att framställandet av klimatdeklarationen inte medförstörre svårigheter då det finns flera effektiva programvaror som är lätta att förstå utan störreförkunskaper. Det kritiska momentet kommer vara att resurssammanställningen är korrekt gjordoch att mängderna stämmer. Detta kan göras genom att tidigt upprätta mallar och rutiner för attkontinuerligt kunna bokföra transporter och material i projektets gång.

Climate change poses a major environmental challenge, due to its adverse effects on human settlement patterns and food security. The global phenomenon upsets seasonal shifts, leading to changes in planting dates and weather patterns. This unpredictability has severe and adverse effects on farmers and rural communities, as variable environmental factors govern activities related to daily sustenance and food availability. The kind of rapid and intense climate change that South African rural spaces are experiencing now, increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and floods. There are growing concerns that the rural poor will be unable to adapt. Rural livelihoods are therefore facing overwhelming and extensive environmental threats, while rural dwellers are finding it difficult to adapt and cope. As a result, climate change can thus be described as one of the most complex and dangerous environmental problems challenging rural livelihoods today. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of climate change on rural poverty at Binfield village in the Eastern Cape and to identify the livelihood activities practiced. Furthermore, the research was conducted to ascertain how rural livelihood activities are affected by climate change and identify and assess the effectiveness of adaption strategies employed by the households. The research also aimed to explore and establish further adaptation strategies. This study made use of a qualitative research method. Babooa (2008) argues that qualitative research is concerned with stories and accounts including subjective understandings, feelings, opinions and beliefs. The study used both primary and secondary data for data. The researcher adopted interviews and field observation for primary data whilst secondary data was sourced from journals, articles and internet sources. O‘ Leary (2004) describes the interview as a method of collecting data where the interviewer asks the Interviewee open-ended questions. The questions were based on the key areas of interest. Qualitative research methods are aimed at understanding the rich, complex characteristic nature of human phenomena. Qualitative methods are concerned with understanding human behaviour from the participant‘s own frame of reference.

The implementation of reduced-impact logging (RIL) in Sabah is recognised in the literature as an activity to reduce the environmental impact of timber harvest activities, thus reducing carbon entering the atmosphere. With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, modalities for its application as a project-based activity under the Climate Convention have yet to be developed. Investigations on both, its potential to reduce carbon from being released into the atmosphere in Sabah, specifically, and its modalities as a project-based activity under the Climate Convention in Malaysia, broadly, are warranted. This thesis addresses a set of research questions related to modalities for its inclusion under the Climate Convention, temporal and spatial responses of the forest after its implementation, to the investigation of activity-specific modalities, and their effectiveness, and its associated finance under the Climate Convention in Malaysia. The improvement of the forest activities under the Climate Convention are conceptualised through the Hierarchy of Production Forest Management (HoPFM), i.e., a modular framework defining the progression of the forest industry through demonstrable benefits. The conceptual framework begins from the basic legal and regulatory frameworks that govern forest management activities, towards sustainable forest management as the ideology of the Framework, designed to recognise both local, and global, approaches to forest management, while highlighting the need for balanced considerations of environmental, social and economic values. Through the Framework, the components of RIL in Sabah are discussed, relative to the modalities of the Climate Convention. Since he inception of the GIZ programme to improve forest management systems in the Deramakot forest reserve, there has been limited research on its recovery after RIL activities. Data on aboveground alive tree biomass and deadwood necromass was collected, and tested against 'harvest intensity', and 'time since harvest', to assess the temporal and spatial variability of forest responses, both within diameter classes, and major functional species classes of 'dipterocarp' and 'non-dipterocarp'. It was identified that 'harvest intensity' was found to be affecting forest recovery, relative to 'time since harvest', which was similarly identified for 'dipterocarp' species, relative to 'non-dipterocarp', respectively. The few significant changes detected indicate that long-term periods of analysis are required to identify consistent trends over-time. Since the mandate of the RIL policy in Sabah, conventional harvest activities are no longer eligible to be practiced in commercial production reserves. Therefore, to measure changes in carbon between the practices under the Climate Convention, a baseline needs to be developed, where conventional harvest activities were historically, the only form of harvest practice. An analysis of the literature was undertaken to estimate the difference between the practices, whereby broad impact classes of ‘infrastructure created’, and ‘harvest damage’, were identified. In its application, the ‘crediting’ approach is applied, whereby a benchmark is set, counterfactually, to estimate carbon that would be released without RIL activities. A number of carbon reductions are withheld from issuance into the market, to create a buffer between actually and potential issuance. The approach is conservative, to account for changes in policy and project-based circumstances, which may impact the number of carbon reductions issued in a project timeframe. RIL is currently implemented in the commercial production reserves, however it its effectiveness to reduce carbon from entering the atmosphere under the Climate Convention in Malaysia is unclear. Representing extremes along a range of anthropogenic disturbance through RIL activities, data from RIL activities was collected in a lower montaine forest harvested once, and a lowland forest, harvested multiple times. Both areas were tested against the carbon baseline, to represent conventional harvest practices in Sabah. The estimates were comparable to literature values, with RIL activities found to reduce carbon from entering the atmosphere. The variability in the accumulation of carbon stocks of aboveground alive tree biomass was identified as an important consideration in the trends observed. The condition of the forest at the time of harvest, i.e., primary or severely degraded logged-over forest, was found to impact carbon stocks immediately after harvest and the rate of carbon accumulation over time. The variability of the result supports the concept of conservativeness, as advocated for project-based activities, under the Climate Convention. As a signatory Party, Malaysia is developing the necessary institutional infrastructure to facilitate project-based activities under the Climate Convention. Investigating RIL as a nationally appropriate mitigation action is undertaken, where distinctions are made between its integration at the national level, and its implementation at the sub-national level. Drawing on experiences from Sabah, implementing RIL as a project-based activity under the Climate Convention is broadly applicable to all States in Malaysia, whereby monitoring, reporting and verification at the sub-national level may be implemented through the existing domestic forest certification standard in Malaysia. At the current price of carbon over a 35-year harvest cycle, RIL is estimated to be approximately at the break-even price for its implementation in Sabah. Relative to the cost of restoring severely degraded forests harvested through conventional practices in Sabah, implementing RIL is financially viable. The knowledge gained by investigating RIL as a sub-national approach may be useful to assist Malaysia to meet their intended national emission reduction targets under the Climate Convention. This thesis aims to improve our knowledge of the application of RIL in logged-over forest of Sabah, and its applicability as a project-based activity under the Climate Convention in Malaysia. Several research questions were raised, to contextualise the modalities of RIL in Sabah and the institutional framework in Malaysia, relative to the architecture of the Climate Convention. It highlights the need for a systematic approach to gather observations on forest carbon dynamics and their integration into larger carbon accounting frameworks, to improve our understanding of the potential of RIL to contribute to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere from the forest sector.

Groundwater is naturally present below the ground level and is a fundamental resource which supports the activity of the surface-level ecosystems. In the semiarid region of Portugal the vegetation ecosystems have been adapted by developing root systems which enable them to access deep soil water to cope with recurring droughts. As a result of environmental changes linked to climate change, water availability in the soil is expected to decrease as consequence of temperature increment and decline in precipitation. These changes will cause a drop in the aquifer recharge and phreatic level with possible impacts on the groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Within this framework, the objective of the project is to estimate the impacts of climatic changes on the groundwater system present in the study area, which is characterized from the geotechnical, meteorological and hydrogeological points of view. To address the problem, a numerical model of the portion between ground level and the water table, referred to as the “vadose zone”, is obtained. The model acts as an investigation tool to estimate the ecosystem water balance and the water table fluctuations for different scenarios. A present scenario is modelled to understand the processes taking place in a soil vertical profile and the effects of vegetation and water table position on water dynamics. Model calibration is done using experimental data from tests performed on collected soil samples to find soil hydraulic properties, then adjusted using in-situ data. The model is used to simulate future conditions in a climate change scenario and to evaluate their impact on the overall water balance, making predictions about the evolution of the groundwater position. The results show a high dependency of the ecosystem on the soil water availability, meaning that significant impacts are expected in a climate change scenario. In this case, the model predicts a general decrease in water table level, of up to 8 m by year 2100.

Arctic sea ice loss is a robust feature of observations and of climate model projections. Amplified winter lower tropospheric warming in the Arctic relative to the global mean is associated with this ice loss. Many recent studies have addressed the possible effects of these changes on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, particularly in the North Atlantic. These studies suggest responses including an equatorward jet shift, a negative annular mode response and changes in Rossby wave behaviour. However, there is disagreement on the magnitude, significance and even sign of these responses. Previous studies have shown the advantages of model hierarchies for understanding the atmosphere. In this thesis, experiments are conducted in HadGAM1 with simplified lower boundary conditions. Two sets of experiments are conducted, one in a zonally symmetric aquaplanet and the other in a configuration with representative northern hemisphere land masses. A wide range of sea ice profiles are imposed. The dominant response to ice removal in an aquaplanet is an equatorward jet shift, consistent with previous work. This response is moderate in magnitude for ice which does not exceed 65◦ latitude, but strongly nonlinear for greater ice extents. The zonal mean response is qualitatively similar in the asymmetric configuration, but the nature of the asymmetric response shows sensitivity to the exact ice edge location. These results have implications for understanding the impact of sea ice anomalies in past as well as present climates. Changes in surface temperature gradients, including from Arctic amplification, could affect midlatitude climate even if circulation changes are small. In particular, changes in thermal advection could alter midlatitude temperature variability and extremes. In this thesis a multiple regression model is used to investigate projected monthly temperature variance changes in a recent single model ensemble. Many robust changes, including reduced winter temperature variance in Europe, are consistent with the effect of changes in the seasonal mean temperature gradient alone.

Long-term changes in climatic conditions resulting from greenhouse gas emissions have been shown to have a marked effect on many species. Less well studied are the impacts of climate change on whole communities and in particular the consequences of these changes on the interactions between species within a community. This thesis aimed to test the following hypotheses: (i) the composition of temporary pond macroinvertebrate communities will be influenced by climatic conditions affecting variables such as water depth and temperature, but these impacts will differ according to pond geology and habitat type, (ii) the impact of temperature on life history traits will be modified by the interactions between species within the community and (iii) it is possible to predict the point at which future climatic conditions will become unsuitable for temporary pond specialist species.

Climate change is expected to lead to changes in ambient temperature, wind speed, humidity, precipitation and cloud cover. As electricity demand is closely influenced by these climatic variables, there is likely to be an impact on demand patterns. The potential impact of future changes in climate on electricity demand can be seen on an hourly, daily and seasonal basis through the fluctuation of weather patterns. However, the magnitude of such changes will depend on prevailing electricity use patterns as well as long-term socio-economic trends. This thesis investigates how changing climate will affect Thailand’s short-term and long-term electricity demand. Its review of available literature across the climate change and power systems fields highlights that analysis of such impacts for developing nations is almost entirely lacking. It then presents a modelling approach to capture the influence of temperature on daily and seasonal demand. The models are initially used to examine the sensitivity of demand to uniform rises in temperature. More sophisticated modelling, based on temperature projections from the UK Hadley Centre climate model combined with socio-economic projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios, is used to project absolute changes in Thailand’s electricity demand across three future time periods. The specific climate and socio-economic scenarios considered here indicate that mean annual temperatures in Thailand will rise by 1.74 to 3.43°C by 2080, implying additional increases in Thai peak electricity demand of 1.5–3.1% in the 2020s, 3.7–8.3% in the 2050s and 6.6–15.3% in the 2080s. The implications of the changes are discussed in terms of Thailand’s approach to meeting future electrical demand.

. There is now overwhelming evidence that the stratosphere and troposphere behave as a two-way dy- namically coupled system, such that changes in temperature and wind in the stratosphere can influence the tropospheric circulation and vice versa. This has motivated interest in the role of the stratosphere in determining the climate response to forcing. Observations show that stratospheric water vapour (SWV) increased by ",30% between 1980 and 2000. Despite this, few studies have assessed the tropospheric dynamical response to SWV trends; this is the main aim of this thesis. The first part of the thesis focuses on modelling the radiative response to changes in SWV. It is shown that there are differences of up to ",70% in the magnitude of the temperature response to a given SWV perturbation between two different broad-band radiation codes. The physical basis for the structure of the purely radiative temperature response to an increase in SWV is then considered. The largest cooling occurs in the lower stratosphere and is enhanced in the extratropics compared to the tropics. The typically low concentration of SWV (a few ppmv) and the horizontal gradient in tropopause height are shown to be the dominant drivers of this structure. The second part of the thesis considers the response to SWV perturbations in global climate models (GCMs). An advanced GCM (H~dGAM I) is used to test the response to changes in SWV in the absence of changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A uniform doubling in SWV results in a poleward shift in the rnidlatitude jets, a more positive annular mode index and an increase in the strength of the Brewer- Dobson circulation. In the more simplified Reading IGCM, the inclusion of the changes in SSTs causes a negative feedback, which reduces the amplitude of the tropospheric circulation response to a uniform SWV perturbation.

Climate change is a long-term shift in the average weather conditions that threatens settlements, societies, and industries. Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive industries since the production in this sector is highly dependent on various weather factors. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the economic impact of climate change on Canadian Prairie agriculture using the well-known Ricardian model. The Ricardian model is best described as a hedonic regression of farmland value on an assortment of climatic and non-climatic variables. This model is widely used in economic analysis because it captures farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change. To estimate the parameters of the Ricardian model, three methods are utilized: pooled weighted least squared (WLS), random effects, and spatial random effects. The estimated coefficients are used to predict the impact of three potential climate and price change scenarios on farmland value in the Canadian Prairies. The main contributions of this study relative to existing studies are: the use of updated data, the inclusion of expected prices rather than actual prices in the model, and the utilization of spatial econometrics methods to estimate the model. The estimated marginal impacts of climate demonstrate that an increase in rainfall and winter, spring, and fall temperatures will increase farmland value; the effect is opposite for July temperature. The signs of the marginal impacts of rainfall and July temperature reveal that water availability plays a very important role in crop production on the Canadian Prairies. Overall, climate change is predicted to increase the value of farm land on the Canadian Prairies by an average of 0.9% to 3.87% annually. However, the northern part of Saskatchewan and the north-eastern part of Alberta are forecasted to experience a decrease in farmland value under a medium climate change scenario. The current analysis predicts that farm welfare in the Prairies will increase by about $1.14 - $4.1 billion annually as a result of climate change. This suggests that with proper adaptations, climate change can be beneficial for Prairie agriculture.

There is a consensus in the law and development field and international policy circles that a Theoretically Ideal Legal Climate is necessary to attract foreign investment into an emerging economy. This research study analyses and attempts to build on this 'Dominant Theory' in the context of Russia. The Dominant Theory has little direct empirical support: the methods that are most often used to assert that law as a determinant of foreign investment are inappropriate to the task, and the findings of such studies are inconsistent and unconvincing. Further, the studies that purport to assert the importance of a Theoretically Ideal Legal Climate to foreign investors leave three important questions unanswered: - How do foreign investors perceive the host legal climate before investing? - Why do they invest in countries that lack a Theoretically Ideal Legal Climate? - What factors affect the importance that foreign investors attach to host legal climates? A range of existing research provides preliminary answers to these questions, suggesting that the Dominant Theory is not entirely accurate. They form the basis of two hypotheses. Interviews of foreign investors and their advisors in London and Moscow are carried out to address the research agenda. The evidence verify the hypotheses. While foreign investors would prefer a Theoretically Ideal Legal Climate, and welcome improvements in the quality of the Russian legal climate, it is clear that a notable faction of them do not conform to the Dominant Theory. First, according to the interviewees, the quality of Russia's legal climate does determine whether investors choose to invest there or not. Second, foreign investors can operate successfully in the absence of a Theoretically Ideal Legal Climate. Finally, the impact of the Russia's legal climate depends significantly on the characteristics of the investor and nature of the investment.

The performance of roads is known to progressively reduce as a result of separate and interactive effects of climate and traffic. Existing decision support tools such as HDM-4, which are widely used to investigate long-term road maintenance strategies, utilise past climate data instead of future climate predictions. Uncertainties inherent in future climate predictions however imply that application of such tools could lead to outputs that are not robust in light of climate change. The objectives of the study were threefold: firstly, to develop a rut depth prediction model that considered potential effects of future climate; secondly, to formulate a framework for quantification of uncertainties; and finally, to demonstrate the application of the tools developed using a case study. The model was developed using data provided by the UK Highways Agency and UK Climate Impacts Programme. The methodology used was based on Bayesian regression. The developed model was found to perform better than the current asphalt surfacing rut depth model implemented in HDM-4 when future climate data was used. It was concluded that probabilistic outputs from the tools developed including deterioration rates, pavement condition and discounted maintenance costs for each maintenance strategy, and future climate and socio-economic scenarios provide a useful decision making framework for considering alternative strategies for road maintenance on the basis of the level of climate change risks that can be tolerated.

Abstract: Despite a growing body of literature on social movement outcomes, the field is underdeveloped and under theorised. The present analysis innovatively investigates the national policy outcomes of climate change activism in the UK in order to expand on recent advances in the literature. It takes on the challenge set by social movement scholars to increase the theoretical and empirical strength of outcomes research. It does so by incorporating a wide range of movement-related and contextual data using a mixed-method approach and a dual-sequential design, which allows for inductive and deductive exploration within a single study. The thesis analyses three campaigns across the span of 13 years, al lowing for comparison across cases and over time and for a deep investigation into individual cases. In addition, it explores the degree of success achieved throughout the policymaking process in each campaign, as well as drawing comparisons across cases with a diversity of resources, strategies, and tactics. The thesis attempts to explore the substance, context, and mechanisms entailed in the question: How do social movements matter?

Doctor of Education
Department of Educational Leadership
Robert Shoop
Teachers and administrators are struggling. They must do more with less. Children come to school from a variety of backgrounds and experiences. These issues, as well as numerous others, provoke emotions that run rampant—sometimes out of control and sometimes minimized to the point of being destructive. In turn, the school climate and learning environment is affected. Teachers need support to enhance their understanding of emotional intelligence (EI). Application of EI competencies can positively influence school climate. The purpose of this intrinsic case study was to understand the perceived impact of enhancing teacher knowledge and application of emotional intelligence on school climate. The study explored teacher emotional intelligence, school climate, and the intersection of the two. Emotional intelligence instruction and education were provided to the teacher research participants during the study to support their personal growth. This study provided an understanding of the impact of teacher emotional intelligence on school climate. Results indicated that teacher emotional intelligence can be developed or enhanced and that it does affect their perception of the school climate. The impact was reflected in greater teacher awareness, intentional application of EI strategies, recognition of the benefits of EI on school climate, acknowledgement of factors impeding EI and school climate, and an altered perception of their role in the school climate. The study revealed a continued need for emphasizing and enhancing teacher emotional intelligence as a means of improving school climate. Utilizing a model such as the Six Seconds Model for Emotional Intelligence proved worth the time and effort because it enhanced teacher EI and changed teacher perceptions of school climate. A need for additional time and continued EI training was also noted as a means for additional growth in a more positive school climate.