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1
Bonetti, Maria Fernanda, and John J. Wiens. "Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1795 (November 22, 2014): 20133229. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.3229.
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The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change.
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Varzinczak, Luiz H., Mauricio O. Moura, and Fernando C. Passos. "Shifts to multiple optima underlie climatic niche evolution in New World phyllostomid bats." Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 128, no. 4 (October 22, 2019): 1008–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blz123.
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Abstract Climate underlies species distribution patterns, especially in species where climate limits distributions, such as the phyllostomid bats, which are mostly restricted to the New World tropics. The evolutionary dynamics that shaped phyllostomid climatic niches remain unclear, and a broad phylogenetic perspective is required to uncover their patterns. We used geographical distributions and evolutionary relationships of 130 species, climate data and phylogenetic comparative methods to uncover dynamics of phyllostomid climatic niche evolution. Diversification of climatic niches began early in phyllostomid evolution (~34 Mya), with most changes taking place ~20 Mya. Although most of these bats were found in tropical regions, shifts towards different evolutionary optima were common. Shifts were mostly towards temperate climates, reflecting complexities in phyllostomid evolution highlighted by the probable role of species-specific adaptations to cope with these climates, the influence of palaeoclimatic events, and biogeographical effects related to the evolution and dispersal of clades in the New World. Our results broaden our understanding of the relationships between phyllostomid bats and climate, filling an important gap in knowledge and suggesting a complex evolution in their occupation of the climatic niche space.
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Cang, F. Alice, Ashley A. Wilson, and John J. Wiens. "Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses." Biology Letters 12, no. 9 (September 2016): 20160368. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0368.
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Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources.
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Dorey, James B., Scott V. C. Groom, Elisha H. Freedman, Cale S. Matthews, Olivia K. Davies, Ella J. Deans, Celina Rebola, Mark I. Stevens, Michael S. Y. Lee, and Michael P. Schwarz. "Radiation of tropical island bees and the role of phylogenetic niche conservatism as an important driver of biodiversity." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 287, no. 1925 (April 15, 2020): 20200045. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0045.
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Island biogeography explores how biodiversity in island ecosystems arises and is maintained. The topographical complexity of islands can drive speciation by providing a diversity of niches that promote adaptive radiation and speciation. However, recent studies have argued that phylogenetic niche conservatism, combined with topographical complexity and climate change, could also promote speciation if populations are episodically fragmented into climate refugia that enable allopatric speciation. Adaptive radiation and phylogenetic niche conservatism therefore both predict that topographical complexity should encourage speciation, but they differ strongly in their inferred mechanisms. Using genetic (mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)) and morphological data, we show high species diversity (22 species) in an endemic clade of Fijian Homalictus bees, with most species restricted to highlands and frequently exhibiting narrow geographical ranges. Our results indicate that elevational niches have been conserved across most speciation events, contradicting expectations from an adaptive radiation model but concordant with phylogenetic niche conservatism. Climate cycles, topographical complexity, and niche conservatism could interact to shape island biodiversity. We argue that phylogenetic niche conservatism is an important driver of tropical island bee biodiversity but that this phylogenetic inertia also leads to major extinction risks for tropical ectotherms under future warming climates.
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Duarte, Milen, Pablo C. Guerrero, Mary T. K. Arroyo, and Ramiro O. Bustamante. "Niches and climate-change refugia in hundreds of species from one of the most arid places on Earth." PeerJ 7 (September 12, 2019): e7409. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7409.
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Background and Aims Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. Several arid areas might expand in the future, but it is not clear if this change would be positive or negative for arid-adapted lineages. Here, we explore whether climatic niche properties are involved in the configuration of climate refugia and thus in future species trends. Methods To estimate putative climate refugia and potential expansion areas, we used maximum entropy models and four climate-change models to generate current and future potential distributions of 142 plant species endemic to the Atacama and mediterranean Chilean ecosystems. We assessed the relationship between the similarity and breadth of thermal and precipitation niches with the size of climate refugia and areas of potential expansions. Key Results We found a positive relationship between breadth and similarity for thermal niche with the size of climate refugia, but only niche similarity of the thermal niche was positively related with the size of expansion areas. Although all lineages would reduce their distributions in the future, few species are predicted to be at risk of extinction in their current distribution, and all of them presented potential expansion areas. Conclusion Species with a broad niche and niche dissimilarity will have larger refugia, and species with niche dissimilarity will have larger expansion areas. In addition, our prediction for arid lineages shows that these species will be moderately affected by climate change.
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Vásquez-Aguilar, Antonio Acini, Juan Francisco Ornelas, Flor Rodríguez-Gómez, and M. Cristina MacSwiney G. "Modeling Future Potential Distribution of Buff-Bellied Hummingbird (Amazilia yucatanensis) Under Climate Change: Species vs. Subspecies." Tropical Conservation Science 25 (January 2021): 194008292110308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/19400829211030834.
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Global climate change is associated with changes in precipitation patterns and an increase in extreme weather events, which might shift the geographic distribution of species. Despite the importance of this topic, information is lacking for many species, particularly tropical birds. Here, we developed species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections of the distribution of the widespread Buff-bellied Hummingbird ( Amazilia yucatanensis) and for each of the recognized subspecies ( A. y. yucatanensis, A. y. cerviniventris, A. y. chalconota), under climate change scenarios. Using SDMs we evaluate current and future projections of their potential distribution for four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) for the years 2050 and 2070. We also calculated the subspecies climatic niche breadth to test the relationship between their area of distribution and climatic niche breadth and their niche overlap. Future climate-change models suggested a small increase in the potential distribution of the species and the subspecies A. y. yucatanensis, but the predicted potential geographic range decreased in A. y. chalconota and remained unaffected in A. y. cerviniventris. The climatic niche of A. y. cerviniventris contained part niche space of A. y. yucatanensis and part of A. y. chalconota, but the climatic niches of A. y. yucatanensis and A. y. chalconota did not overlap. Our study highlights the importance of correctly choosing the taxonomic unit to be analyzed because subspecies will respond in a different manner to future climate change; therefore, conservation actions must consider intrinsic requirements of subspecies and the environmental drivers that shape their distributions.
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Grossman, Jake J. "Evidence of Constrained Divergence and Conservatism in Climatic Niches of the Temperate Maples (Acer L.)." Forests 12, no. 5 (April 26, 2021): 535. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f12050535.
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Research highlights: The availability of global distribution data and new, fossil-calibrated phylogenies has made it possible to compare the climatic niches of the temperate maple (Acer L.) taxa and assess phylogenetic and continental patterns in niche overlap. Background and Objectives: The maples have radiated from East Asia into two other temperate continental bioregions, North America and Eurasia (Europe and West Asia), over a roughly 60-million-year period. During this time, the Earth’s climate experienced pronounced cooling and drying, culminating in cyclic periods of widespread temperate glaciation in the Pliocene to Pleistocene. The objective of this study is to use newly available data to model the climatic niches of 60% of the temperate maples and assess patterns of niche divergence, constraint, and conservatism in the genus’s radiation out of East Asia. Materials and Methods: I assembled global occurrence data and associated climatic information for 71 maple taxa, including all species endemic to temperate North America and Eurasia and their closely related East Asian congeners. I constructed Maxent niche models for all taxa and compared the climatic niches of 184 taxa pairs and assessed phylogenetic signal in key niche axes for each taxon and in niche overlap at the continental and global scale. Results: Maxent models define a fundamental climatic niche for temperate maples and suggest that drought-intolerant taxa have been lost from the Eurasian maple flora, with little continental difference in temperature optima or breadth. Niche axes and niche overlap show minimal evidence of phylogenetic signal, suggesting adaptive evolution. Pairwise niche comparisons reveal infrequent niche overlap continentally and globally, even among sister pairs, with few taxa pairs sharing ecological niche space, providing evidence for constrained divergence within the genus’s fundamental climatic niche. Evidence of niche conservatism is limited to three somewhat geographically isolated regions of high maple diversity (western North America, the Caucasus, and Japan). Conclusions: Over 60 million years of hemispheric radiation on a cooling and drying planet, the maple genus experienced divergent, though constrained, climatic niche evolution. High climatic niche diversity across spatial and phylogenetic scales along with very limited niche overlap or conservatism suggests that the radiation of the genus has largely been one of adaptive diversification.
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Qu, Yan-Fu, and John J. Wiens. "Higher temperatures lower rates of physiological and niche evolution." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 287, no. 1931 (July 15, 2020): 20200823. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0823.
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Understanding rates and patterns of change in physiological and climatic-niche variables is of urgent importance as many species are increasingly threatened by rising global temperatures. Here, we broadly test several fundamental hypotheses about physiological and niche evolution for the first time (with appropriate phylogenetic methods), using published data from 2059 vertebrate species. Our main results show that: (i) physiological tolerances to heat evolve more slowly than those to cold, (ii) the hottest climatic-niche temperatures change more slowly than the coldest climatic-niche temperatures, and (iii) physiological tolerances to heat and cold evolve more slowly than the corresponding climatic-niche variables. Physiological tolerances are significantly and positively related to the corresponding climatic-niche variables, but species often occur in climates outside the range of these tolerances. However, mismatches between climate and physiology do not necessarily mean that the climatic-niche data are misleading. Instead, some standard physiological variables used in vertebrates (i.e. critical thermal maxima and minima) may reflect when species are active (daily, seasonally) and their local-scale microhabitats (sun versus shade), rather than their large-scale climatic distributions.
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Amano, Tatsuya, Robert P. Freckleton, Simon A. Queenborough, Simon W. Doxford, Richard J. Smithers, Tim H. Sparks, and William J. Sutherland. "Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1779 (March 22, 2014): 20133017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.3017.
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To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.
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Waterson, Amy M., Daniela N. Schmidt, Paul J. Valdes, Patricia A. Holroyd, David B. Nicholson, Alexander Farnsworth, and Paul M. Barrett. "Modelling the climatic niche of turtles: a deep-time perspective." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 283, no. 1839 (September 28, 2016): 20161408. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.1408.
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Ectotherms have close physiological ties with the thermal environment; consequently, the impact of future climate change on their biogeographic distributions is of major interest. Here, we use the modern and deep-time fossil record of testudines (turtles, tortoises, and terrapins) to provide the first test of climate on the niche limits of both extant and extinct (Late Cretaceous, Maastrichtian) taxa. Ecological niche models are used to assess niche overlap in model projections for key testudine ecotypes and families. An ordination framework is applied to quantify metrics of niche change (stability, expansion, and unfilling) between the Maastrichtian and present day. Results indicate that niche stability over evolutionary timescales varies between testudine clades. Groups that originated in the Early Cretaceous show climatic niche stability, whereas those diversifying towards the end of the Cretaceous display larger niche expansion towards the modern. Temperature is the dominant driver of modern and past distributions, whereas precipitation is important for freshwater turtle ranges. Our findings demonstrate that testudines were able to occupy warmer climates than present day in the geological record. However, the projected rate and magnitude of future environmental change, in concert with other conservation threats, presents challenges for acclimation or adaptation.
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Xu, Chi, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer. "Future of the human climate niche." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 21 (May 4, 2020): 11350–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117.
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All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.
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Pahad, Govan, Claudine Montgelard, and Bettine Jansen van Vuuren. "Phylogeography and niche modelling: reciprocal enlightenment." Mammalia 84, no. 1 (December 18, 2019): 10–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mammalia-2018-0191.
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Abstract Phylogeography examines the spatial genetic structure of species. Environmental niche modelling (or ecological niche modelling; ENM) examines the environmental limits of a species’ ecological niche. These two fields have great potential to be used together. ENM can shed light on how phylogeographical patterns develop and help identify possible drivers of spatial structure that need to be further investigated. Specifically, ENM can be used to test for niche differentiation among clades, identify factors limiting individual clades and identify barriers and contact zones. It can also be used to test hypotheses regarding the effects of historical and future climate change on spatial genetic patterns by projecting niches using palaeoclimate or future climate data. Conversely, phylogeographical information can populate ENM with within-species genetic diversity. Where adaptive variation exists among clades within a species, modelling their niches separately can improve predictions of historical distribution patterns and future responses to climate change. Awareness of patterns of genetic diversity in niche modelling can also alert conservationists to the potential loss of genetically diverse areas in a species’ range. Here, we provide a simplistic overview of both fields, and focus on their potential for integration, encouraging researchers on both sides to take advantage of the opportunities available.
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Antell, Gwen S., Isabel S. Fenton, Paul J. Valdes, and Erin E. Saupe. "Thermal niches of planktonic foraminifera are static throughout glacial–interglacial climate change." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 18 (April 26, 2021): e2017105118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2017105118.
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Abiotic niche lability reduces extinction risk by allowing species to adapt to changing environmental conditions in situ. In contrast, species with static niches must keep pace with the velocity of climate change as they track suitable habitat. The rate and frequency of niche lability have been studied on human timescales (months to decades) and geological timescales (millions of years), but lability on intermediate timescales (millennia) remains largely uninvestigated. Here, we quantified abiotic niche lability at 8-ka resolution across the last 700 ka of glacial–interglacial climate fluctuations, using the exceptionally well-known fossil record of planktonic foraminifera coupled with Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Model reconstructions of paleoclimate. We tracked foraminiferal niches through time along the univariate axis of mean annual temperature, measured both at the sea surface and at species’ depth habitats. Species’ temperature preferences were uncoupled from the global temperature regime, undermining a hypothesis of local adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, intraspecific niches were equally similar through time, regardless of climate change magnitude on short timescales (8 ka) and across contrasts of glacial and interglacial extremes. Evolutionary trait models fitted to time series of occupied temperature values supported widespread niche stasis above randomly wandering or directional change. Ecotype explained little variation in species-level differences in niche lability after accounting for evolutionary relatedness. Together, these results suggest that warming and ocean acidification over the next hundreds to thousands of years could redistribute and reduce populations of foraminifera and other calcifying plankton, which are primary components of marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles.
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Aguilée, Robin, Gaël Raoul, François Rousset, and Ophélie Ronce. "Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 39 (September 12, 2016): E5741—E5748. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607612113.
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Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.
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Dormann, Carsten F., Bernd Gruber, Marten Winter, and Dirk Herrmann. "Evolution of climate niches in European mammals?" Biology Letters 6, no. 2 (October 14, 2009): 229–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2009.0688.
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Our ability to predict consequences of climate change is severely impaired by the lack of knowledge on the ability of species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We used distribution data for 140 mammal species in Europe, together with data on climate, land cover and topography, to derive a statistical description of their realized climate niche. We then compared climate niche overlap of pairs of species, selected on the basis of phylogenetic information. In contrast to expectations, related species were not similar in their climate niche. Rather, even species pairs that had a common ancestor less than 1 Ma already display very high climate niche distances. We interpret our finding as a strong interspecific competitive constraint on the realized niche, rather than a rapid evolution of the fundamental niche. If correct, our results imply a very limited usefulness of climate niche models for the prediction of future mammal distributions.
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Martínez-Méndez, Norberto, Omar Mejía, Jorge Ortega, and Fausto Méndez-de la Cruz. "Climatic niche evolution in the viviparousSceloporus torquatusgroup (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae)." PeerJ 6 (January 9, 2019): e6192. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6192.
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The cold-climate hypothesis maintains that viviparity arose as a means to prevent increased egg mortality in nests owing to low temperatures, and this hypothesis represents the primary and most strongly supported explanation for the evolution of viviparity in reptiles. In this regard, certain authors have stated that viviparous species will exhibit speciation via climatic niche conservatism, with similar climatic niches being observed in allopatric sister species. However, this prediction remains to be tested with bioclimatic variables relevant to each viviparous group. In the present study, we examined climatic niche evolution in a group of North American viviparous lizards to determine whether their diversification is linked to phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC). We evaluated the phylogenetic signal and trait evolution of individual bioclimatic variables and principal component (PC) scores of a PC analysis, along with reconstructions of ancestral climate tolerances. The results suggest that diversification of theSceloporus torquatusgroup species is associated with both niche differentiation and PNC. Furthermore, we did not observe PNC across nearly all bioclimatic variables and in PC2 and PC3. However, in Precipitation Seasonality (Bio15), in Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (Bio19) and in PC1 (weakly associated with variability of temperature), we did observe PNC. Additionally, variation of the scores along the phylogeny and Pagel’s delta (δ) >1 of PC3 suggests a fast, recent evolution to dry conditions in the clade that sustainsS. serrifer.
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Zhang, Sheng-Nan, and Kôhei Kubota. "Integrating intraspecific variation in species distribution models by quantifying niche differentiation." Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 133, no. 1 (March 13, 2021): 187–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blab021.
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Abstract Intraspecific variation provides insight into heterogeneous demography and adaptive history across distribution ranges of organisms. Most species distribution models assume that species respond to the environment as a single undifferentiated entity across their entire distribution. However, populations occupying different niches might differ in their ability to cope with climate change. Here, we assessed potential climatic niche differentiation at the species and subspecies levels and identified the palaeoclimatic range of three cold-adapted, low-dispersal beetle species: Carabus irregularis, Platycerus albisomni and Platycerus takakuwai. Our results showed that: (1) MaxEnt models incorporating information derived from intraspecific variation outperformed the species-level models; (2) tests of niche similarity revealed niche conservatism in most subspecies, except for two subspecies of C. irregularis, C. i. irregularis and C. i. bucephalus; and (3) historical predictions suggested substantial shifts within species ranges, with multiple glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum. In conclusion, we recommend closer examination of intraspecific variation when predicting species distributions, in order to obtain more accurate generalizations regarding range shifts under climate change.
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Chen, Youhua, and Tania Escalante. "Correlates of ecological-niche diversity and extinction risk of amphibians in China under climate change." Australian Systematic Botany 30, no. 6 (2017): 414. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/sb17001.
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In the present study, we measured spatiotemporal properties of ecological niches of amphibians in China and tested the relative importance of various niche-diversity metrics for explaining the evolutionary distinctiveness-weighted extinction risk (EDGE) of amphibian species. We applied the hierarchical partitioning technique on the phylogenetically independent contrasts of the niche covariates and EDGE of amphibians, for the purpose of removing the influence of evolutionary inertia among species. As a comparison, phylogenetic least-square general regression (PLGS) was also conducted. The results showed that EDGE was high for those amphibian species of China identified as Critically Endangered or Endangered on the IUCN Red List. Niche fragmentation dimension (NFD) and niche position (NP) were the top two predictors across partial correlation analyses, hierarchical variation partitioning, PLGS and multiple regression analyses. Most temporal niche properties were not significantly associated with the EDGE index of amphibians. Variation partitioning analysis showed that the spatial component of niche measures explained the largest proportion of total variation in EDGE (~31%), whereas the temporal component of niche properties explained ~8% of the variation. The significantly negative role of NFD and extinction risk of amphibians in China may be attributed to a reduced rescue effect, habitat geometry, and local extinction in species with large and continuous distributional ranges.
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Escoriza, Daniel, and Félix Amat. "Habitat Partitioning and Overlap by Large Lacertid Lizards in Southern Europe." Diversity 13, no. 4 (April 4, 2021): 155. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d13040155.
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South-western Europe has a rich diversity of lacertid lizards. In this study, we evaluated the occupancy patterns and niche segregation of five species of lacertids, focusing on large-bodied species (i.e., adults having >75 mm snout-vent length) that occur in south-western Europe (Italian to the Iberian Peninsula). We characterized the niches occupied by these species based on climate and vegetation cover properties. We expected some commonality among phylogenetically related species, but also patterns of habitat segregation mitigating competition between ecologically equivalent species. We used multivariate ordination and probabilistic methods to describe the occupancy patterns and evaluated niche evolution through phylogenetic analyses. Our results showed climate niche partitioning, but with a wide overlap in transitional zones, where segregation is maintained by species-specific responses to the vegetation cover. The analyses also showed that phylogenetically related species tend to share large parts of their habitat niches. The occurrence of independent evolutionary lineages contributed to the regional species richness favored by a long history of niche divergence.
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Alexander, Jake M. "Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 280, no. 1767 (September 22, 2013): 20131446. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1446.
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A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.
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Fan, Jingyu, Pengxiang Wu, Tianqi Tian, Qilin Ren, Muhammad Haseeb, and Runzhi Zhang. "Potential Distribution and Niche Differentiation of Spodoptera frugiperda in Africa." Insects 11, no. 6 (June 21, 2020): 383. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects11060383.
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The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is a serious agricultural pest. The species originates from the tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas and has now become established in many countries. Its strong migratory ability is the key factor in the rapidly expanding range of S. frugiperda in Africa, where food security faces unprecedented challenges. Exploring potential distributions and niche differentiation of S. frugiperda could provide new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate further invasions. In this study, the occurrence population records (native, source, global, and African) and environmental variables of S. frugiperda were selected to fit ecological niche models (ENMs), with an evaluation of niche conservatism during its invasion of Africa. The results showed that the potential distributions of S. frugiperda are mainly in tropical and subtropical areas in Africa. The climate spaces occupied by its native population and introduced African population broadly overlap. Although, climate niches were conserved during invasion of Africa, many climate spaces were unoccupied, suggesting a high remaining invasion potential in Africa. The selection of the biogeographic realm is an important factor in model construction, and has a great influence on the transferability of the models. Indeed, the global model produced the best performance, following the source and native models.
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Chowdhary, Anuradha, Harbans S. Randhawa, Teun Boekhout, Ferry Hagen, Corné H. Klaassen, and Jacques F. Meis. "Temperate Climate Niche forCryptococcus gattiiin Northern Europe." Emerging Infectious Diseases 18, no. 1 (January 2012): 172–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1801.111190.
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Algar, Adam C., and Simon Tarr. "Fossils, phylogenies and the evolving climate niche." Nature Ecology & Evolution 2, no. 3 (January 29, 2018): 414–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0480-z.
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Scheffer, Marten, Chi Xu, Stijn Hantson, Milena Holmgren, Sietse O. Los, and Egbert H. van Nes. "A global climate niche for giant trees." Global Change Biology 24, no. 7 (May 2, 2018): 2875–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14167.
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Fandos, Guillermo, Shay Rotics, Nir Sapir, Wolfgang Fiedler, Michael Kaatz, Martin Wikelski, Ran Nathan, and Damaris Zurell. "Seasonal niche tracking of climate emerges at the population level in a migratory bird." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 287, no. 1935 (September 23, 2020): 20201799. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1799.
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Seasonal animal migration is a widespread phenomenon. At the species level, it has been shown that many migratory animal species track similar climatic conditions throughout the year. However, it remains unclear whether such a niche tracking pattern is a direct consequence of individual behaviour or emerges at the population or species level through behavioural variability. Here, we estimated seasonal niche overlap and seasonal niche tracking at the individual and population level of central European white storks ( Ciconia ciconia ). We quantified niche tracking for both weather and climate conditions to control for the different spatio-temporal scales over which ecological processes may operate. Our results indicate that niche tracking is a bottom-up process. Individuals mainly track weather conditions while climatic niche tracking mainly emerges at the population level. This result may be partially explained by a high degree of intra- and inter-individual variation in niche overlap between seasons. Understanding how migratory individuals, populations and species respond to seasonal environments is key for anticipating the impacts of global environmental changes.
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Harrison, Susan, Marko J. Spasojevic, and Daijiang Li. "Climate and plant community diversity in space and time." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 9 (February 18, 2020): 4464–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921724117.
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Climate strongly shapes plant diversity over large spatial scales, with relatively warm and wet (benign, productive) regions supporting greater numbers of species. Unresolved aspects of this relationship include what causes it, whether it permeates to community diversity at smaller spatial scales, whether it is accompanied by patterns in functional and phylogenetic diversity as some hypotheses predict, and whether it is paralleled by climate-driven changes in diversity over time. Here, studies of Californian plants are reviewed and new analyses are conducted to synthesize climate–diversity relationships in space and time. Across spatial scales and organizational levels, plant diversity is maximized in more productive (wetter) climates, and these consistent spatial relationships are mirrored in losses of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity over time during a recent climatic drying trend. These results support the tolerance and climatic niche conservatism hypotheses for climate–diversity relationships, and suggest there is some predictability to future changes in diversity in water-limited climates.
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Olthoff, Adriana E., Carolina Martínez-Ruiz, and Josu G. Alday. "Niche Characterization of Shrub Functional Groups along an Atlantic-Mediterranean Gradient." Forests 12, no. 8 (July 24, 2021): 982. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f12080982.
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The identification of the factors controlling the understory species distribution and abundance is essential to understand the ecology and dynamics of natural forests and their management response. We assess the relationships between environmental gradients and shrub functional groups distribution patterns and niche characteristics in a transitional area between the Eurosiberian and Mediterranean biogeographic regions in Northern Spain. Here, 772 plots from the 3rd Spanish National Forest Inventory were used. Shrub functional groups respond to the same complex environmental gradients as trees, i.e., the north-south climatic gradient and a slope gradient. Unimodal response curves of shrub functional groups and families dominate along both gradients, providing evidence of successful functional turnover. Similar to tree species, the niche location of functionally related shrubs is close. Functional groups occupying environments with sharp contrast or transitional environments have the broadest niches, whereas those specialized functional groups occupying localized habitats showed the narrowest niches. The knowledge of shrub species distributions and niche characteristics along complex environmental gradients will improve our ability to discuss potential conservation management goals or threats due to land-use changes and future climate change.
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Urban, Mark C., Josh J. Tewksbury, and Kimberly S. Sheldon. "On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 279, no. 1735 (January 4, 2012): 2072–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2011.2367.
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Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called ‘no-analogue’ communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences.
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van Heerwaarden, Belinda, and Carla M. Sgrò. "Is adaptation to climate change really constrained in niche specialists?" Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1790 (September 7, 2014): 20140396. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.0396.
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Species with restricted distributions make up the vast majority of biodiversity. Recent evidence suggests that Drosophila species with restricted tropical distributions lack genetic variation in the key trait of desiccation resistance. It has therefore been predicted that tropically restricted species will be limited in their evolutionary response to future climatic changes and will face higher risks of extinction. However, these assessments have been made using extreme levels of desiccation stress (less than 10% relative humidity (RH)) that extend well beyond the changes projected for the wet tropics under climate change scenarios over the next 30 years. Here, we show that significant evolutionary responses to less extreme (35% RH) but more ecologically realistic levels of climatic change and desiccation stress are in fact possible in two species of rainforest restricted Drosophila . Evolution may indeed be an important means by which sensitive rainforest-restricted species are able to mitigate the effects of climate change.
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Pearman, Peter B., Manuela D'Amen, Catherine H. Graham, Wilfried Thuiller, and Niklaus E. Zimmermann. "Within-taxon niche structure: niche conservatism, divergence and predicted effects of climate change." Ecography 33, no. 6 (November 23, 2010): 990–1003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06443.x.
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Loulida, Soumia, Pedro Segurado, Mohamed Naimi, and Mohammed Znari. "Niche differentiation among genetic lineages in the Mediterranean Pond turtle, Mauremys leprosa, across its geographical range." Amphibia-Reptilia 42, no. 2 (March 4, 2021): 227–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/15685381-bja10049.
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Abstract Ecological niche modelling provides a useful tool to measure niche properties such as niche breadth, niche overlap and niche conservatism among genetic lineages, with relevant implications for conservation. The Mediterranean pond turtle Mauremys leprosa occurs on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar over most Iberia and the Maghreb Region of north-western Africa, where it shows a complex genetic structure as the result of Pleistocene climatic oscillations and the particular geographical features of this region. We analyzed the overlap of the climate niche of genetic lineages and sublineages of Mauremys leprosa, based on confirmed records across the known geographical range of the species. We also compared the accuracy of environmental niche models obtained by splitting the two lineages into subunits and lumping across lineages. Results revealed an overall niche overlap between the two main lineages and among most sublineages, indicating no relationship between genetic variation and niche divergence. Likewise, the environmental niche modelling revealed an extensive geographical overlap of climatic suitability between the two lineages. However, some ecological differentiation occurs for some sublineage pairs, in particular involving a sublineage whose occurrence corresponds to a particular morphotype – the Sahara blue-eyed pond turtle – which occupies very isolated habitats along the Draa basin in Morocco. These populations are currently threatened by fragmentation of habitats, drought and water salinization. This study will help assessing more effectively the impacts of ongoing climate change on Mauremys leprosa that along with local human activities are likely to increase in the southernmost limit of its distribution.
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Cardoza-Martínez, Gabriel, Jorge Becerra-López, Citlalli Esparza-Estrada, José Estrada-Rodríguez, Alexander Czaja, Muhammad Ehsan, Eduardo Baltierra-Trejo, and Ulises Romero-Méndez. "Shifts in Climatic Niche Occupation in Astrophytum Coahuilense (H. Möller) Kayser and Its Potential Distribution in Mexico." Sustainability 11, no. 4 (February 21, 2019): 1138. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11041138.
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It has frequently been reported that species with strong niche conservatism will not be able to adapt to new climatic conditions, so they must migrate or go extinct. We have evaluated the shifts in climatic niche occupation of the species Astrophytum coahuilense and its potential distribution in Mexico. We understand niche occupation as the geographic zones with available habitats and with the presence of the species. To assess shifts in climatic niche occupation, we used niche overlap analysis, while potential distribution modeling was performed based on the principle of maximum entropy. The results indicate that this species presents a limited amplitude in its climate niche. This restriction of the climatic niche of A. coahuilense limits its ability to colonize new geographical areas with different climatic environments. On the other hand, the potential distribution models obtained from the present study allow us to identify potential zones based on the climatic requirements of the species. This information is important to identify high priority areas for the conservation of A. coahuilense.
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Datta, Kausik, Karen H. Bartlett, and Kieren A. Marr. "Cryptococcus gattii: Emergence in Western North America: Exploitation of a Novel Ecological Niche." Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases 2009 (2009): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2009/176532.
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The relatively uncommon fungal pathogenCryptococcus gattiirecently emerged as a significant cause of cryptococcal disease in human and animals in the Pacific Northwest of North America. Although genetic studies indicated its possible presence in the Pacific Northwest for more than 30 years,C. gattiias an etiological agent was largely unknown in this region prior to 1999. The recent emergence may have been encouraged by changing conditions of climate or land use and/or host susceptibility, and predictive ecological niche modeling indicates a potentially wider spread.C. gattiican survive wide climatic variations and colonize the environment in tropical, subtropical, temperate, and dry climates. Long-term climate changes, such as the significantly elevated global temperature in the last 100 years, influence patterns of disease among plants and animals and create niche microclimates habitable by emerging pathogens.C. gattiimay have exploited such a hitherto unrecognized but clement environment in the Pacific Northwest to provide a wider exposure and risk of infection to human and animal populations.
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González, Victoria T., Bente Lindgård, Rigmor Reiersen, Snorre B. Hagen, and Kari Anne Bråthen. "Niche construction mediates climate effects on recovery of tundra heathlands after extreme event." PLOS ONE 16, no. 2 (February 4, 2021): e0245929. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245929.
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Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events in northern ecosystems. The outcome of these events across the landscape, might be mediated by species effects, such as niche construction, with likely consequences on vegetation resilience. To test this hypothesis, we simulated an extreme event by removing aboveground vegetation in tundra heathlands dominated by the allelopathic dwarf shrub Empetrum nigrum, a strong niche constructor. We tested the hypothesis under different climate regimes along a 200-km long gradient from oceanic to continental climate in Northern Norway. We studied the vegetation recovery process over ten years along the climatic gradient. The recovery of E. nigrum and subordinate species was low and flattened out after five years at all locations along the climatic gradient, causing low vegetation cover at the end of the study in extreme event plots. Natural seed recruitment was low at all sites, however, the addition of seeds from faster growing species did not promote vegetation recovery. A soil bioassay from 8 years after the vegetation was removed, suggested the allelopathic effect of E. nigrum was still present in the soil environment. Our results provide evidence of how a common niche constructor species can dramatically affect ecosystem recovery along a climatic gradient after extreme events in habitats where it is dominant. By its extremely slow regrowth and it preventing establishment of faster growing species, this study increases our knowledge on the possible outcomes when extreme events harm niche constructors in the tundra.
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Gorel, Anaïs-Pasiphaé, Jérôme Duminil, Jean-Louis Doucet, and Adeline Fayolle. "Ecological niche divergence associated with species and populations differentiation in Erythrophleum (Fabaceae, Caesalpinioideae)." Plant Ecology and Evolution 152, no. 1 (March 25, 2019): 41–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5091/plecevo.2019.1543.
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Background and aims – The isolation of populations inside forest refugia during past climate changes has widely been hypothesized as a major driver of tropical plant diversity. Environmental conditions can also influence patterns of diversity by driving divergent selection leading to local adaptation and, potentially, ecological speciation. Genetic and phylogenetic approaches are frequently used to study the diversification of African tree clades. However, the environmental space occupied by closely related species or intra-specific gene pools is barely quantified, though needed to properly test hypotheses on diversification processes.Methods – Using species distribution models, we determined the bioclimatic constraints on the distribution of closely related species and intra-specific gene pools. Our study model, Erythrophleum (Fabaceae – Caesalpinioideae), is a tropical tree genus widespread across Africa, and vastly investigated for genetics. Here, we combined the available phylogenetic data with information on niche divergence to explore the role of ecology into diversification at the species and gene pool levels.Key results – Ecological speciation through climate has probably played a key role in the evolution of the Erythrophleum species. The differential climatic niche of the species indicated adaptive divergence along rainfall gradients, that have probably been boosted by past climate fluctuations. At the gene pool level, past climate changes during the Pleistocene have shaped genetic diversity, though within Erythrophleum suaveolens, adaptive divergence also occurred.Conclusions – We believe that ecological speciation is a key mechanism of diversification for tropical African tree species, since such climatic niche partition exist among many other genera. Modelling the environmental niche of closely related taxa, and testing for niche differentiation, combined with divergence dates offered new insights on the process of diversification.
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Castillo, Andrea G., Dominique Alò, Benito A. González, and Horacio Samaniego. "Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile." PeerJ 6 (May 28, 2018): e4907. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4907.
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Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.
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González-Moreno, Pablo, Jeffrey M. Diez, David M. Richardson, and Montserrat Vilà. "Beyond climate: disturbance niche shifts in invasive species." Global Ecology and Biogeography 24, no. 3 (December 16, 2014): 360–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12271.
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Lim, Haw Chuan, Fasheng Zou, and Frederick H. Sheldon. "Genetic differentiation in two widespread, open-forest bird species of Southeast Asia (Copsychus saularis and Megalaima haemacephala): Insights from ecological niche modeling." Current Zoology 61, no. 5 (October 1, 2015): 922–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/czoolo/61.5.922.
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Abstract Ecological niche modeling has emerged as an useful tool in the investigation of the phylogeographic histories of species or communities in a region. The high biodiversity (oftentimes cryptic), and complex geography and geological history of Southeast Asia particularly call for multipronged approaches in phylogeographic investigations. Past studies have focused on taxa that are associated with lowland rainforests, which is the dominant natural vegetation type. Here, we combine published phylogenetic data, ecological niche modeling and paleo-climate models to reveal potential drivers of divergence in two open-forest bird species, the oriental magpie-robin Copsychus saularis and Coppersmith barbet Megalaima haemacephala. In spite of broad overlap in current distributions, there are subtle differences in their climatic niches, which result in different responses to past climatic changes. For C. saularis, both Last Glacial Maximum climate models indicated that the entire Sundaland was climatically suitable, while phylogenetic analyses found divergent eastern and western Sundaland lineages. We thus postulate that this genetic divergence was a result of past separations of coastal habitats into eastern and western portions due to the emergence of Sunda shelf as sea-level fell. The current separation of morphological subspecies in Borneo is maintained by low climatic suitability (high annual rainfall) in certain regions. The extirpation of M. haemacephala from Borneo and southern Malay Peninsula might have been driven by unsuitable conditions (high temperature seasonality) in central Sundaland and/or the lack of open woodlands. Our study shows that ecological niche modeling adds a powerful dimension to our attempt to understand lineage evolution in space.
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Rehfeldt, Gerald E., Cheng C. Ying, David L. Spittlehouse, and David A. Hamilton. "GENETIC RESPONSES TO CLIMATE INPINUS CONTORTA: NICHE BREADTH, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND REFORESTATION." Ecological Monographs 69, no. 3 (August 1999): 375–407. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/0012-9615(1999)069[0375:grtcip]2.0.co;2.
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Jezkova, Tereza, and John J. Wiens. "Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 283, no. 1843 (November 30, 2016): 20162104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.2104.
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Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change.
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Cabaña, Imanol, Margarita Chiaraviglio, Valeria Di Cola, Antoine Guisan, Olivier Broennimann, Cristina N. Gardenal, and Paula C. Rivera. "Hybridization and hybrid zone stability between two lizards explained by population genetics and niche quantification." Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society 190, no. 2 (March 21, 2020): 757–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/zoolinnean/zlaa018.
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Abstract Understanding the factors that affect hybridization is an important issue in the study of species evolution. In this work, we analyse the genetic structure of two lizard species, Salvator merianae and Salvator rufescens, at a microscale within a climatic niche analysis framework, to reveal the main factors that contribute to the stability of their hybrid zone. We assess the effect of climate in hybridization by quantifying and decomposing the niche overlap of both species. Using a mitochondrial and a nuclear marker, we find that hybridization is frequent and is not restricted to the sympatric region. The gene flow is mainly from S. rufescens to S. merianae, with introgression into the range of S. merianae. Also, S. merianae would have long been present in the area, while S. rufescens appears to be a recent colonizer. The climate contributes to the population structure of S. merianae, but not to that of S. rufescens. The niches occupied by S. rufescens in the hybrid zone and the non-hybrid zone are similar, while the niches of S. merianae are different. Our results do not fit previous models of hybrid zone stability, suggesting the need to develop new models that consider the evolutionary factors that can differentially affect parental species and hybrids.
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Teixeira, Karina De Oliveira, Thiago Cesar Lima Silveira, and Birgit Harter-Marques. "Different Responses in Geographic Range Shifts and Increase of Niche Overlap in Future Climate Scenario of the Subspecies of Melipona quadrifasciata Lepeletier." Sociobiology 65, no. 4 (October 11, 2018): 630. http://dx.doi.org/10.13102/sociobiology.v65i4.3375.
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Climate change is suggested to be one of the possible drivers of decline in pollinators. In this paper, we applied an ecological niche model to modeling distributional responses in face of climate changes for the subspecies of Melipona quadrifasciata Lepeletier. This species is divided into two subspecies based on difference in the yellow tergal stripes, which are continuous in M. q. quadrifasciata and interrupted in M. q. anthidioides. The geographic distribution of each subspecies is also distinct. M. q. quadrifasciata is found in colder regions in the Southern states of Brazil, whereas M. q. anthidioides is found in habitats with higher temperatures, suggesting that ecological features, such as adaption to distinct climatic conditions may take place. Thus, the possibility of having diff erent responses in geographic range shifts to future climate scenario would be expected. This study aimed to investigate the eff ects of climate changes on the distribution of the two M. quadrifasciata subspecies in Brazil, using an ecological niche model by the MaxEnt algorithm. Our results indicate that the subspecies showed clear diff erences in geographic shift patterns and increased climate niche overlap in the future scenarios. M. q. anthidioides will have the potential for an increase of suitable climatic conditinos in the Atlantic Forest, and towards the Pampa biome, while M. q. quadrifasciata will suffer a reduction of adequate habitats in almost all of its current geographic distribution. Given the potential adverse eff ects of climate changes for this subspecies, conservation actions are urgently needed to avoid that it goes extinct.
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Lima, FD, LE Ángeles-González, TS Leite, and SMQ Lima. "Global climate changes over time shape the environmental niche distribution of Octopus insularis in the Atlantic Ocean." Marine Ecology Progress Series 652 (October 15, 2020): 111–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps13486.
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In the Atlantic Ocean, Octopus insularis (Cephalopoda: Octopodidae) Leite and Haimovici, 2008 inhabits warm and shallow habitats, where it is one of the main targets of cephalopod fisheries. Considering the current trend of increasing seawater temperature, warm-water species are expected to expand their geographic distribution ranges. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is an important tool to help describe likely changes in geographic distribution patterns of a species in different climatic scenarios. To evaluate changes in the distribution of Octopus insularis over time, the maximum entropy approach was used, which estimated a suitable climatic niche for Octopus under 5 scenarios of global climate change. Four environmental variables were chosen to model the suitable climatic niche of O. insularis in the present, past, and future scenarios. The ENM in different climatic scenarios showed good validation and pointed out an increase of the suitable niche for O. insularis settlement, from the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kya) up to future scenarios. In the future projections, suitable niche space will potentially increase in the tropical Atlantic compared to the current distribution. Modeling pointed out the possibility of expansion from the current range of the species to the temperate northern Atlantic, temperate South America, and temperate South Africa. This may cause potential threats, such as possible extinction of endemic species, habitat displacement of native octopuses, and reorganizations in the trophic chain.
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Silva, Tiago Castro, Lara Gomes Côrtes, and Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira. "Could Protected Areas in Brazil’s Semi-Arid Conserve Endangered Birds Facing Climatic and Land Cover Changes?" Biodiversidade Brasileira - BioBrasil, no. 2 (August 12, 2020): 50–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.37002/biobrasil.v10i2.1469.
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Protected areas act as pillars on which conservation strategies are built. Besides human activities, global climate changes are an additional concern to species’ conservation. In northeastern Brazil, climate change should lead to a replacement of the current native vegetation by semi-desert vegetation. This study evaluates whether the protected areas of the Caatinga can contribute to the maintenance of suitable climatic conditions for endangered birds over time in the face of global climate changes and land cover change. We used ecological niche models as input layers in a spatial prioritization program, in which stability indices were used to weight the targets. Results predicted that most taxa (18) will have their suitability lowered in the future, and all taxa (23) will have their ecological niche geographically displaced. However, our results showed that the Caatinga’s protected areas system integrated with a set of priority areas can maintain suitable climatic conditions for endangered birds in the face of climate change and land cover change. On average, Caatinga’s protected areas system could protect climatic stability areas at least 1.7 times greater than the scenarios without it. This reinforces the importance of protected areas as a biodiversity conservation strategy.
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Rehfeldt, Gerald E., Cheng C. Ying, David L. Spittlehouse, and David A. Hamilton. "Genetic Responses to Climate in Pinus contorta: Niche Breadth, Climate Change, and Reforestation." Ecological Monographs 69, no. 3 (August 1999): 375. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2657162.
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Angulo, D. F., L. D. Amarilla, and V. Sosa. "Incipient speciation in the Chihuahuan Desert shrub Berberis trifoliolata under divergent climate scenarios." Botany 92, no. 3 (March 2014): 195–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjb-2013-0213.
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The discovery of biotic and ecological factors that influence genetic isolation in populations contributes to our understanding of speciation, one of the most important issues in evolutionary biology. In this paper, we ask whether differences in climate preferences are influencing genetic isolation in two assemblages of populations of Berberis trifoliolata Moric., the Northeastern and the Mexican Plateau groups. Agarito, as this species is known, is a remarkable shrub in the arid regions of North America and found mostly in the Chihuahuan Desert. Ecological niche modeling and two tests of niche evolution were carried out. The Ecological Niche Modeling suggests that the potential distribution of the Northeastern group does not predict that of the Mexican Plateau group, and nor does the latter predict the former. Tests of niche evolution indicate a divergent niche between these two groups. Among the most important climate factors detected in the multivariate niche evolution test are mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. We concluded that the two lineages exemplify an incipient speciation process.
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Heap, Marshall J. "Verifying the Ability of Environmental Niche Models to Predict Species' Niche Response to Climate Change." International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses 8, no. 1 (2015): 51–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.18848/1835-7156/cgp/v08i01/57871.
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Jones, Lewis A., Philip D. Mannion, Alexander Farnsworth, Paul J. Valdes, Sarah-Jane Kelland, and Peter A. Allison. "Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change." Royal Society Open Science 6, no. 4 (April 2019): 182111. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.182111.
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Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.
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Brodie, Jedediah F., Matthew Strimas-Mackey, Jayasilan Mohd-Azlan, Alys Granados, Henry Bernard, Anthony J. Giordano, and Olga E. Helmy. "Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 284, no. 1847 (January 25, 2017): 20162335. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.2335.
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The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities—currently the most diverse on Earth—may become depauperate (‘biotic attrition’). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely.
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Li, Fengyuan, Lili Shao, and Shuqiang Li. "Tropical Niche Conservatism Explains the Eocene Migration from India to Southeast Asia in Ochyroceratid Spiders." Systematic Biology 69, no. 5 (February 3, 2020): 987–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syaa006.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Biological migrations between India and Southeast (SE) Asia provide an ideal system for exploring the effects of geology and climate on species ranges. Geologists have confirmed that the direct collision between India and Eurasia occurred in the Early Eocene, but most migrations occurred between the Indian subcontinent and SE Asia rather than the former and the southern margin of Eurasia. To explain this seemingly paradoxical disconnect between the routes of plate movement and biological migration, we studied the evolutionary history of the tropical spider family Ochyroceratidae based on 101 globally distributed species. We infer a robust dated phylogeny using both transcriptomic data and a data set of classical markers and relate these to biogeographic and climatic analyses. Our results indicate that the monophyly of Ochyroceratidae is strongly supported, and the divergence times suggest a Cretaceous Gondwanan origin of the family. Reconstructed biogeographic histories support a dispersal event from the Indian subcontinent to islands of SE Asia 55–38 Ma. Climatic analyses and the fossil record reveal that ochyroceratids are characterized by a high degree of tropical niche conservatism, and that the ancestor of the Indian and SE Asian clades originated in very warm, wet environments. Early Eocene tropical, perhumid climates in India, and SE Asia may have facilitated ochyroceratid migration, whereas the dry or seasonal climate extending from the eastern coast of China to Central Asia may have acted as a barrier, preventing dispersal. Our analyses suggest that climate plays a more important role than geology in biological migration from the Indian subcontinent to SE Asia, providing new insights into the Indian–Asian biogeographic link. [Biogeography; ecology; geological connections; macroevolution; paleoclimate.]