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Spires, Meggan Hazel. "Barriers to and enablers of climate change adaptation in four South African municipalities, and implications for community based adaptation." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1018913.
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The focus of this study is on understanding the multiple and interacting factors that hinder or enable municipal planned climate change adaptation, here called barriers and enablers respectively, and their implications for community based adaptation. To do this I developed a conceptual framework of barriers to and enablers of planned climate change adaptation, which informed a systematic literature review of barriers to planned community based adaptation in developing countries. In this framework barriers were grouped into resource, social and physical barriers. I then conducted empirical case study analysis using qualitative research methods in four South African municipalities to understand what barriers and enablers manifested in these contexts. In light of the reflexive nature of my methodology, my framework was adjusted based on my empirical findings, where contextual barriers were found to better represent the empirical results and subsumed physical barriers. I found my framework useful for analysis, but in the empirical cases, barriers and enablers overlaid and interacted so significantly that in reality it was often difficult to separate them. A key finding was that enablers tended to be more about the way things are done, as opposed to direct opposites of barriers. Comparison of barriers and enablers across the case studies revealed a number of key themes. Municipalities struggle to implement climate change adaptation and community based adaptation within contexts of significant social, economic and ecological challenges. These contextual barriers, when combined with certain cognitive barriers, lead to reactive responses. Existing municipal systems and structures make it difficult to enable climate change adaptation, which is inherently cross‐sectoral and messy, and especially community based adaptation that is bottom‐up and participatory. Lack of locally applicable knowledge, funding and human resources were found to be significant resource barriers, and were often underlain by social barriers relating to perceptions, norms, discourses and governance challenges. Enablers of engaged officials, operating within enabling organisational environments and drawing on partnerships and networks, were able to overcome or circumvent these barriers. When these enablers coincided with windows of opportunity that increased the prioritisation of climate change within the municipality, projects with ancillary benefits were often implemented. Analysis of the barriers and enablers identified in the literature and case studies, informed discussion on whether municipalities are able to implement community based adaptation as defined in the literature, as well as the development of recommendations for how municipal planned climate change adaptation and community based adaptation can be further understood and enabled in the future. These recommendations for practice and research include: (a) To acknowledge and understand the conceptual framings of municipal climate change work, as these framings inform the climate change agenda that is pursued, and hence what municipal climate change adaptation work is done and how it was done. (b) The need for further research into the social barriers that influence the vital enablers of engaged officials, enabling organisational environments, and partnerships and networks. (c) To learn from pilot community‐level interventions that have been implemented by municipalities, as well as from other disciplines and municipalities. (d) To develop top‐down/bottom‐up approaches to enable municipal planned climate change adaptation and community based adaptation, that benefits from high level support and guidance, as well as local level flexibility and learning‐by‐doing. (e) To develop viable mechanisms for municipalities to better engage with the communities they serve.
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Adams, Terence Gilbert. "The late holocene vegetation history of Lake Farm, South Eastern Cape Province, South Africa." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14715.
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Bibliography: p. 155-175.Palynological analysis of organic sediments from a freshwater lake near Port Elizabeth (34°S,25°30'E) has provided a high- resolution vegetation history of the area for the last 2200 years. Detailed identification and counting of the fossil pollen resulted in the generation of a pollen diagram. Changing frequencies in fossil pollen over time are represented, and inferences are made regarding environmental conditions which influenced the vegetation. A detailed narrative of vegetation history in response to environmental change is presented, and this is compared to results from related studies. The significance of the Lake Farm study site has been noted in terms of its location as a 'zone of convergence' for a variety of vegetation types. Results of fossil pollen analysis indicate that environmental conditions prior to 1 500BP were drier than at present. Forest and fynbos vegetation were not well-represented in the pollen spectrum at this time, and it is suggested that they were not favoured by these conditions. Environmental conditions ameliorated after 1500BP, becoming more mesic, which favoured the proliferation of both forest and fynbos vegetation types. At present xeric and grassland elements are declining, while shrubs increase, indicating an enhanced human-induced disturbance regime. It is suggested that the partial decline in forest elements at present 1s most likely attributable to human-induced disturbance of the environment. The introduction of exotic trees has been noted (approx. 280BP) and is seen to have coincided with the influx of european settlers to the region. Principal Components Analysis has revealed that the vegetation distribution in the area has been most heavily influenced by human activity and moisture availability. The necessarily subjective interpretation of the statistical results, however, casts some doubt on the validity of the conclusions drawn. The validity of the conclusions drawn from this study becomes apparent not only in terms of what is learned about the history of forests, but also the form any future management should take.
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Van, Niekerk Christiaan Hermanus. "Past and present climates : owl pellet composition as an indicator of local climatic change." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52395.
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Thesis (MScAgric)--University of Stellenbosch, 2001.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: During Holocene times a considerable deposit of barn owl pellet material accumulated in the Hot Pot Cave at De Hoop Nature Reserve on the southern coast of the Western Cape Province, South Africa. An excavation of this accumulation has yielded information on barn owl prey species over the past some two millennia. Four distinct layers were excavated and radiocarbon-dated to AD 381, AD 615, AD 991 and AD 1417. The micromammalian cranial contents of these layers were compared to material from two pellet collections that represent modem bam owl predation at De Hoop (AD 2000). Comparisons were made from three perspectives: (1) physical size measurements of certain cranial parameters, (2) micromammal community species composition and (3) community structure indices, such as the Shannon-Wiener diversity index, Simpson's diversity index and the species equitability index. By extrapolating from known ecological distribution information of the relevant prey species, these data were used to recreate the local climate at the time of the accumulation of the layers. The results were compared to other palaeoclimate models for the region as a test of validity. It was found that the lower two layers of the sequence represented mild conditions with possibly more grass than in recent times, while the upper layers represented cool weather with a possible increase in scrub. AD 381 was found to be somewhat dry and mild, AD 615 to be the wettest level and possibly milder than AD 381, AD 991 to be the coolest of all the levels and dryest of the ancient levels, AD 1417 to be somewhat cool and probably drier than AD 615, but wetter than AD 381, and AD 2000 to be the mildest and dryest of all levels, with the artificial influence of nearby agricultural activities evident.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tydens die Holoseen tydperk het 'n relatief groot hoeveelheid nonnietjie-uil bolusmateriaal versamel in Hot Pot Grot in die De Hoop Natuurreservaat aan die Wes-Kaapse suidkus, Suid- Afrika. Opgrawings van hierdie bolusversameling het waardevolle en insiggewende inligting aandie lig gebring rakende nonnetjie-uil prooi tydens ongeveer die afgelope tweeduisend jaar. Vier defnitiewe lae is opgegrawe en deur radiodatering is die lae se datums vasgestelop 381, 615, 991 en 1417 n.e. Deur gebruik te maak van kraniale kriteria. is die mikrosoogdier inhoud van die opgrawings vergelyk met dié van twee bolusversamelings wat die huidige uilprooi (2000 n.Ci) in De Hoop verteenwoordig. Die vergelykings is op drie maniere getref: (1) fisiese grootternates van sekere kraniale parameters, (2) species-samestelling van die mikrosoogdiergemeenskap en (3) gemeenskap-struktuur indekse nl. die Shannon-Wiener diversiteitsindeks, Simpson se diversiteitsindeks en die species-gelykheid indeks. Deur ekstrapolasie vanaf bekende ekologiese verspreidingsinligting rakende die betrokke species, is hierdie data gebruik om die klimaat van daardie tydperke te herskep op 'n streeksbasis en vergelyk met ander paleoklimaat-modelle om die geldigheid daarvan te beproef. Die resultate het getoon dat die onderste (oudste) twee lae warmer toestande met moontlik meer gras verteenwoordig, terwyl die boonste twee lae koeler weer met moontlik meer bosse verteenwoordig. Daar is verder gevind dat 381 n.e. redelik droog en warm was, 615 n.e. die natste laag en moontlik warmer as 381 n.e., 991 n.e. die koudste van al die lae en droogste van die grot-lae, 1417 n.e. redelik koel en moontlik droëer as 615 n.e., maar natter as 381 n.e., en 2000 n.C. die warmste en droogste van al die lae, met kunsmatige invloed van nabygeleë landbou aktiwiteite.
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Tabalaza, Nomthetho. "The impact climate change on rural households in Binfield village." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/20626.
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Climate change poses a major environmental challenge, due to its adverse effects on human settlement patterns and food security. The global phenomenon upsets seasonal shifts, leading to changes in planting dates and weather patterns. This unpredictability has severe and adverse effects on farmers and rural communities, as variable environmental factors govern activities related to daily sustenance and food availability. The kind of rapid and intense climate change that South African rural spaces are experiencing now, increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and floods. There are growing concerns that the rural poor will be unable to adapt. Rural livelihoods are therefore facing overwhelming and extensive environmental threats, while rural dwellers are finding it difficult to adapt and cope. As a result, climate change can thus be described as one of the most complex and dangerous environmental problems challenging rural livelihoods today. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of climate change on rural poverty at Binfield village in the Eastern Cape and to identify the livelihood activities practiced. Furthermore, the research was conducted to ascertain how rural livelihood activities are affected by climate change and identify and assess the effectiveness of adaption strategies employed by the households. The research also aimed to explore and establish further adaptation strategies. This study made use of a qualitative research method. Babooa (2008) argues that qualitative research is concerned with stories and accounts including subjective understandings, feelings, opinions and beliefs. The study used both primary and secondary data for data. The researcher adopted interviews and field observation for primary data whilst secondary data was sourced from journals, articles and internet sources. O‘ Leary (2004) describes the interview as a method of collecting data where the interviewer asks the Interviewee open-ended questions. The questions were based on the key areas of interest. Qualitative research methods are aimed at understanding the rich, complex characteristic nature of human phenomena. Qualitative methods are concerned with understanding human behaviour from the participant‘s own frame of reference.
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Moodley, Shomenthree. "Energy emissions input-output analysis in South Africa." Pretoria: [s.n.], 2005. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-07292008-113130/.
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Pereira, Taryn, Sheona Shackleton, and Felix Kwabena Donkor. "Integrating Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) for greater local level resilience: lessons from a multi-stakeholder think-tank." Rhodes University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62027.
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The last few years have seen one of the most severe droughts in recent times in the southern African region, and news headlines are increasingly full of warnings about heavy storms, fires and floods. There is no doubt that extreme hydro-meteorological events, and their multiple and potentially disastrous impacts, are at the forefront of the public consciousness at the present time and are one of the key concerns regarding the impacts of climate change in the region. While the links between extreme climate events, disaster risk reduction (DRR - see Box 1) and climate change adaptation (CCA - see Box 2) are recognised in the South African Climate Change White Paper, this is not the case for the whole region. Furthermore, even if there is national recognition of the need to synergise these two spheres of endeavour, this does not always trickle down to effective policy, planning and implementation at the local level.
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Van, Huyssteen Roelof Cornelis. "Regulatory aspects of carbon credits and carbon markets." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/5086.
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Regulating carbon markets in order to fight the effects of climate change has in recent years become an integral part of many economies around the world. Ensuring that policymakers implement market-based climate change legislation according to international best practice is an essential part to guarantee that a carbon market system operates smoothly within a country’s economy. There are many opportunities that exist in South Africa towards developing a lucrative carbon market; however, the information to implement such a system is hard to come by and complex to analyse. This dissertation will aim to shed some light on this relatively new field of the law as it will provide an overview of international best practice within the carbon market sphere. Furthermore, this dissertation will examine the legal nature of a carbon credit; analyse international instruments regulating carbon markets and discuss existing South African policies and legislation related to climate change and carbon markets. This will lead to the ultimate objective of this dissertation: to propose a possible framework for the regulation of a South African carbon market based upon international best practice. This dissertation revealed the imperative need for South African policymakers to implement legislation to conform to international best practice within carbon markets. In this regard the dissertation also revealed that the infrastructure to regulate such a market already exists within South Africa. Only subtle changes to these infrastructure systems will be required in order for to accommodate a functioning carbon market. The study revealed that the only way to convince entities around the world to emit fewer emissions and to contribute towards the fight against climate change is to attach a monetary value to emissions. Associating a price to carbon is the only way to sanction entities that produce emissions and compensate entities that mitigate emissions. A carbon tax coupled with a carbon offset mechanism, as opposed to a emissions trading scheme, would be the best option with regards to establishing a South African carbon policy. This will ensure a fair playing field, as carbon tax liable entities would be held responsible to pay the same fixed price per ton of carbon that they emit. Coupling the carbon tax with a carbon offset mechanism, trading with carbon credits, will incentivise companies to invest in “greener” technologies and to emit fewer emissions. This dissertation revealed that international best practice in the carbon market sphere, still poses significant difficulties such as price volatility associated with carbon credits; validation and verification inconsistencies within the different carbon standards; and supply and demand fluctuations. These difficulties where highlighted in this dissertation and solutions relating to these difficulties were discussed. The time has come for South Africa to enter the carbon market sphere, whether it be through the introduction of a carbon tax or otherwise. This dissertation illustrates that the infrastructure and stakeholders associated to a South African carbon market needs to be developed. If, when and how the government will actually implement such a carbon market system, remains a question to be answered.
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New, Mark George. "Hydrologic sensitivity to climatic variability and change in the south western Cape Province, South Africa." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.624376.
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Morahanye, Mokhantso Lilian. "Investigating adaptation strategies to climate change by smallholder farmers : evidence from, Lesotho." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/5807.
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In Lesotho, agriculture is the dominant activity and involves crop and livestock production, range management and forestry activities. The current climatic variability in the country has caused decline in food production as result of increased dry spells, frequency of droughts and erratic rainfall. These climatic events are expected to have a significant impact on the livelihoods of the smallholder farmers. In combatting the harmful effects of climate change, smallholder farmers in Lesotho have employed various adaptation strategies based on their local knowledge and limited means. While these strategies may not be optimal they obviously constitute the basis for potentially effective improved technologies which can be developed and communicated through an efficient extension system, hence the need to precisely identify them and understand the factors that affect their choice. The main objective of this study was therefore, to identify the adaptation strategies and investigate the factors influencing smallholder farmers’ choice of those adaptation strategies. The study made use of multi-stage stratified sampling technique to select 160 respondents across four agro-ecological zones (lowlands, highlands, foothills and Senqu River Valley) in Leribe and Mohales’Hoek districts of Lesotho. Primary data for the study were collected using semi - structured questionnaire assisted with interview schedules administered on the respondents. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics and the multinomial logistics regression model. The results show that there are more males than females, majority of the respondents’ attained primary education, and older people dominate the smallholder farming system. The adaptation strategies used in MNL model were soil and water management, crop management and livestock management. The results further revealed that soil and water management strategies were the most adopted climate change strategies amongst smallholder farmers. It is understood that marital status, age and gender, income, land tenure, crop grown, extension services, and agro-ecological zones are the determinant factors influencing the choice of the adaptation strategies. This study concludes by recommending that smallholder farmers should be sensitised about climate change and both government and non-government organisations working on climate change related issues should direct their attention to rural communities to ensure effective response to climate change.
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Hamer, Nick, and Sheona Shackleton. "Interaction of multiple stressors: vulnerability, coping and adaptation within the context of climate change and HIV/AIDS in South Africa: Investigating strategies to strengthen livelihoods and food security and build resilience." Rhodes University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/50065.
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Government policy development and implementation is often designed to address different sectors of society in isolation, so social, economic and environmental issues are considered as being distinct from one other. Recently it has been acknowledged that 'working in silos' is not conducive for good governance and so efforts have been made for better co-ordination between different government departments and different spheres of government. Our research findings show the knock on effects of one problem into other areas of people's lives, highlighting why it is vital for policies and programmes to be far better co-ordinated. The different challenges and stresses that people face in their lives interact with one another in complex ways, undermining their capacity to cope with and adapt to future changes, such as those expected under climate change.
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Marais, Frans. "Considerations for implementating market based mechanisms in combating climate change in South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012952.
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Since the first period of the Kyoto Protocol, there has been a growing concern that the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions should not only be borne by developed countries, but developing countries as well. South Africa, as the 18th highest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and highest in Africa, has a significant responsibility to reduce its emissions levels. The South African government is currently in the process of implementing a carbon tax for its short term response to climate change and considering the implementation of a carbon market as a medium to long term response to climate change. Both of these market based mechanisms are widely deemed effective in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by economists, however are also known to have negative social and economic implications upon an economy. This study identifies these implications and attempts to provide considerations on how to alleviate the implications through the most appropriate process of revenue recycling. The negative effects of Implementing a carbon tax or carbon market could be severe as and not limited to: a significant decline in GDP, a reduction in the standard of living for certain households, a fall in a country's exports and even an increase in poverty. South Africa's environmental and development policies place a strict precedence on the protection of the poor and the prevention of economic hardship induced by such policies. This places significant importance on the prevention of these externalities from occurring. A primary means of doing so is through the process of revenue recycling, however, certain channels of revenue recycling are by no means helpful, hence the most appropriate channel needs to be identified. The study carried out a multiple case study analysis on Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand and Norway, to determine what effects a carbon tax had on their economies and how these effects were mitigated through carbon tax revenue recycling. An additional analysis of the EU ETS was carried out to determine how the EU ETS was implemented and the controversies and concerns that arose during its implementation. The findings of this analysis were then compared to a number of South African economist’s case studies, and the most appropriate method of revenue recycling identified and possible solutions to the EU ETS controversies found. The study concludes that a food subsidy has the potential to provide positive effects on welfare employment and GDP; therefore could be considered to be the most appropriate method of revenue recycling. However, these effects are limited to be experienced only at low levels of a carbon tax, hence, short term in nature. The study therefore provides a further consideration that the use of multiple channels for revenue recycling needs to be explored that could provide stable longer term effects. In addition, in the implementation of a carbon market, the study concludes that government should consider using an auction approach in the initial allocation phase of an ETS and the use of a centralized registry for monitoring and controlling of information and transactions.
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Cramer, Carolyn Maire ̌. "The framing of climate change in three daily newspapers in the Western Cape Province of South Africa /." Link to the online version, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10019/820.
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Sotsha, Kayalethu. "Indicators of household-level vunerability to climate change in three topographically diverse rural villages." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1016204.
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Climate change has become a major concern globally and it clearly exerts a profound influence on the lives of poor rural populations who depend on agriculture for livelihoods.Generally, agriculture is more at risk from weather, pests and diseases than is industry or trade. Furthermore, many farming units are at low levels of development with little technological input in their production systems. This makes them vulnerable to any exposure to climate and environmental variation, given that there is little capacity for the system to adjust to change. Most at risk are the rural poor with low levels of development and limited ability to adapt to and overcome the effects of climate change. Using data from a sample survey of 120 households this study attempts to assess and compare indicators of vulnerability to climate change. The comparison was made at household level between three typical villages, an inland, a river catchment and a coastal village. This idea of comparison arises from the general understanding that different variables affect different regions differently so that the impact of and vulnerability to climate change differs across regions, areas and populations. The data was obtained using a questionnaire that was administered through face-to-face interviews. Given that sensitivity and adaptive capacity of farming systems to climate change is shaped by both socioeconomic and institutional factors, a multiple regression model was used to test the relationship between indicators of vulnerability and household socioeconomic and institutional characteristics. Indicators were selected based on significant statistical relationships. This means that the statistical procedure for selecting indicators involved relating a large number of variables to vulnerability in order to identify statistically significant factors. The results showed reliability of income and reliability of water resources to be good indicators of vulnerability. Many statistically significant variables as well as respective R2 of 0.988 and 0.825 confirm the foregoing. Another indicator was the Simpson index that measures diversification of agricultural production. The results show that vulnerability to climate change was highest for the households near the river and lowest for the inland village. Moreover, the results confirmed that most blacks that are practicing agriculture receive little if any support largely because available resources are highly skewed towards certain farmers rather than others.
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Mongie, Caitlin Claire. "Voluntary climate change disclosure in South Africa." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30897.
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There is increasing evidence that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are the major cause for global warming. A changing external environment and societal pressure is driving companies to respond to climate change and to limit further contribution where possible. Despite carbon emissions still being largely unregulated and carbon disclosure not being mandatory, many companies in South Africa have voluntarily decided to reduce emissions and make disclosures to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP). Institutional, socio-political and economic voluntary disclosure theories all indicate that there is a pressure for companies to monitor their climate mitigation, evaluate the costs of disclosing and manage stakeholders’ pressures by producing voluntary climate change disclosure. The CDP scores the disclosure made by each company as a measure of the company’s progress towards environmental stewardship. The highest CDP score indicates that a company has leadership in its efforts to environmental stewardship and so addressed stakeholders’ concerns. This study aims to determine which factors, either company specific or individual company responses within the CDP questionnaire, influence a high CDP climate change score for South African companies. The top 100 South African companies were selected using a full Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listing as at 31 March 2017 and the climate change programme score and individual company responses to the climate change questionnaire were obtained from the CDP for the five-year period from 2013 to 2017. A random effect model was used to examine the determinants of voluntary disclosure of carbon information. The results indicate that while CDP scores have improved post the signing of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, providing incentives for managing climate change has also led to improvements in the CDP score which results in improved climate change disclosure. Furthermore, the longer the company assesses climate change risks and opportunities into the future, the better its CDP score. This research contributes a more thorough understanding of disclosure theories, as established from these results. In terms of institutional theories, institutional investors should call for incentives to motivate for climate change management because companies might then be more likely to receive a better CDP score. In terms of socio-political theories, this study’s findings indicate that managers should be made aware that the further into the future they consider climate change risk management the better because this practice will result in the company obtaining an improved CDP score, while simultaneously managing stakeholders’ perceptions of the company. Additionally, this study contributes by making recommendations for companies and policy makers.
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Sibanda, Patience. "Climate change mitigation and resilience by four major supermarkets in East London, South Africa." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/5406.
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Climate change is a human development challenge. Its negative impacts have the potential to reverse the human development gains made in Africa. South Africa, just like many other countries in the Global South, is being negatively affected by climate change. The country`s economy is largely dependent on agriculture, extractive industries and manufacturing, all of which are vulnerable to climate change in different ways. This vulnerability means different public and private stakeholders must institute sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation measures so as to ameliorate climate change impacts. Gradually transforming to an environmentally friendly ‘green economy’ and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are some of South Africa’s climate change mitigation priorities. Just like the public sector, the private sector has a major role to play in this transition to a low carbon economy through minimising its carbon emissions in their operations. Against this background, this qualitative research examines the role played by four major supermarkets (Shoprite, Spar, Pick n Pay and Woolworths), in climate change mitigation and resilience building. It does so through an appraisal of their mitigation and resilience programs. The four supermarkets were purposively selected in East London, Eastern Cape. Data collection combined heavy reliance on desktop discourse analysis with field interviews in the form of purposively sampled key informant interviews. The results show that the four major supermarkets are implementing a variety of climate change mitigation and resilience strategies. These include reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, prioritisation of renewable energy, recycling and environmentally friendly packaging, promotion of sustainable ways of farming and improved fuel efficiency in their transport systems. In terms of policy improvement, the study recommends that there is need for supermarkets to learn from each other’s’ climate change mitigation initiatives so as to advance South Africa’s ‘green economy’ agenda.
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Martens, Brendon. "Livelihoods and climate change in Hamburg: issues for food security." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017538.
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Climate change continues to present a major challenge to food security around the world. The potential impact of climate change of rural livelihoods is especially significant as rural communities often rely heavily on natural resources to sustain their livelihoods and, hence, food security. This is applicable to the rural town of Hamburg, on the Eastern Cape coast of South Africa. The Sustainable Rural Livelihoods framework analyses livelihoods in terms of the context, available capitals and institutional framework that determines the livelihood strategies and outcomes for rural households. In terms of livelihood outcomes for Hamburg, it was found that the households have a heavy reliance on state grants in their livelihood portfolios. Natural resources, in the form of agriculture and harvesting of marine organisms, played only a supplementary role in livelihood strategies. Thus, given that climate change would impact negatively on the estuarine resources and the impact on agriculture is unknown as the climate becomes wetter and hotter, the impact on livelihoods and food security would not be significant. However, the sustainability of current livelihood strategies is questionable as grants, by their very nature, or unsustainable and therefore can result in vulnerability and food insecurity in the long-run for households. It is recommended that grants should be issued within the community, instead of in the distant town of Peddie, to help develop the local economy and reduce leakages. This would allow for diversification of livelihood strategies in Hamburg. In addition, government support through extension officers should be extended to Hamburg to assist in developing the local agriculture sector
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Pathack, Beenay M. R. "Modulation of South African summer rainfall by global climatic processes." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/21735.
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Global climatic processes which control the interannual variability of summer rainfall over South Africa are studied. Monthly and seasonal rainfall variations are analysed with respect to fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and tropospheric winds. OLR is used as a proxy for convective intensity and for the identification of areas of sympathy and opposition to convection over South Africa. Wind data (and derived parameters) are employed to explore large- scale tropical dynamical structures. Plausible explanations are offered for the observed associations. A change in sign of the correlation structure from the October/November rainfall regime to the December through March regime is indicative of a shift from downstream advective processes (Atlantic side) to a teleconnection-type of behaviour (Indian Ocean side). Rainfall variations during the late summer months show significant (and negative) links with SST fluctuations within the equatorial/tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean areas and are consistent with results obtained in analyses with respect to OLR fluctuations. December OLR in the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean is associated with a large portion of the variance in late summer rainfall, and points to a possible relation with the evolution of the Indian monsoon. The positive association implies that reduced cloudiness off the eastern coast of equatorial Africa in the spring precedes above normal mid- and late- summer rainfall over South Africa. Vertical mass overturnings are investigated through the velocity potential and derived parameters (the Zonal Circulation and Meridional Circulation Indices). The results suggest that the vertical tropospheric cells are among the important associated components which modulate climate across southern Africa, and that broad scale flows have an impact upon regional circulation cells. Evaluation of the vertical circulations with respect to wet and dry composites reveals that the Walker-type cell which connects a branch over the Indian Ocean gradually forms after November and reaches peak development in February. A slight increase of SST in the Central Equatorial Indian Ocean (CEI) modifies the Walker cell anomaly leading to below normal summer rainfall over South Africa. Additional thermodynamic inputs in the CEI region are conducive to deeper convection, hence elevated outflow signatures are observed in the velocity potential and related fields. It is conjectured that the teleconnections between South Africa, the CEI and the remote Pacific Ocean regulate the depth of moisture influx and convergence over South Africa. Based on the results of this study, it is believed that empirical models could be designed for long-range prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over the central interior of South Africa.
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Midgley, Craig. "Trends in the fish assemblage structure of two South African transition-zone estuaries : can these trends be linked to climate change?" Thesis, Rhodes University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013173.
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Changes in the fish communities of the Breede and Mbashe estuaries were investigated in relation to the environmental variables that influence the fish assemblages in these systems. The Breede Estuary (34° 24’21.6”S, 20° 51’ 08.2”E) occurs within the warm-temperate/cool-temperate transition-zone, while the Mbashe Estuary (32o 14' 55.4"S, 28o 54' 03.7"E) falls within the subtropical/warm-temperate transition-zone along the South African coastline. The Breede Estuary was sampled (seine and gill nets) during summer (January-March) over a period of 10 years (2002-2012), while the Mbashe Estuary was sampled (seine net) during spring (October) over a period of three years (2010-2012). The proportion of tropical fish species was higher in the Mbashe Estuary compared to the Breede Estuary, while the Breede Estuary contained a higher proportion of temperate species than the Mbashe Estuary. Although the abundance of individual species in both estuaries varied, the ranking of species in the Breede Estuary was stable over the 10 year period. Multivariate analysis showed that the fish communities within each reach (upper, middle, lower) of the Breede Estuary remained similar, regardless of year. In contrast, species composition in the Mbashe Estuary differed significantly between years mainly due to differences in the river flow regime during the study period. Environmental variables responsible for structuring the fish assemblage in each estuary differed. Salinity significantly impacted the spatial fish assemblage structure of the Breede Estuary, with most of the species recorded being associated with the more saline lower reaches. The abundance of tropical species near their distributional limit in the Breede Estuary appeared to be impacted by sea surface temperature (SST) as peak total abundance of these species coincided with the warmest SST, while the lowest total abundance coincided with the coldest annual SST during the study period. The fish assemblage structure in the Mbashe Estuary was impacted by differing freshwater input prior to sampling, with flooding negatively impacting the mean total abundance, species composition and diversity in this system. The variables that influenced the fish assemblage structure of both transition-zone estuaries will be affected by climate change in the future. These variables will, in turn, determine the composition, abundance and diversity of species within these important estuarine systems. In order to measure these impacts with any degree of understanding, long-term studies on the abiotic and biotic (including the ichthyofauna) features of these estuaries are required to interpret climate change trends.
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Anyanwu, Raymond Ndubisi. "An assessment of climate change science literacy and climate change pedagogical literacy of geography teachers in the Western Cape." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96831.
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Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University 2015.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This survey research employed a criterion-referenced multiple-choice questionnaire to collect data from 194 FET Geography teachers in the Western Cape province to assess their level of literacy in both climate change science and climate change pedagogy, and to determine the influence of gender, age, qualification, specialisation, experience, grade mostly taught, their experience in providing instruction on climate change and the location of their school. Aspects of climate change science assessed include: climate processes and probable causes of climate change; climate change impacts; and climate change responses. Aspects of climate change pedagogy assessed include: the aims and significance of climate change education; and constructivist teaching principles and practice. The collected data was analysed using percentage frequencies to determine the teachers‟ level of literacy in climate change science and climate change pedagogy; the Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to determine the influence of the mediating variables on climate change science literacy and climate change pedagogical literacy, respectively. The results indicate that Geography teachers in the Western Cape Province demonstrated „High‟ literacy in climate change science and „Low‟ literacy in climate change pedagogy. Factors such as school location, gender, age and teaching experience were found to have a significant influence on climate change science literacy; whereas qualification, specialisation, grade mostly taught and experience in providing instruction on climate change did not. Conversely, teaching experience and grade mostly taught had a significant influence on climate change pedagogical literacy; whereas school location, gender, age, qualification, specialisation and experience in providing instruction on climate change did not. Based on these findings, it is recommended that professional development interventions in climate change pedagogy are required in order to expose Geography teachers to the aims and significance of climate change education and methods of facilitating problem-based, learner-centred instruction on climate change.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie opnamenavorsing het gebruik gemaak van ‟n kriteriumverwysing- meerkeusige vraelys om data by 194 VOO Aardrykskunde onderwysers in die Wes-Kaap provinsie te versamel om hulle vlak van geletterdheid in beide die wetenskap en pedagogie van klimaatsverandering te bepaal en om die invloed van geslag, ouderdom, kwalifikasie, spesialisasie, ervaring, graad wat die meeste onderrig is, hulle ervaring van onderrig oor klimaatsverandering en die ligging van hulle skool te bepaal. Aspekte van klimaatsverandering wat geassesseer is, het klimaatsprosesse en moontlike oorsake van klimaatsverandering, impakte van klimaatsverandering en reaksies op klimaatsverandering ingesluit. Aspekte van die pedagogie van klimaatsverandering wat geassesseer is, het die doelwitte en betekenisvolheid van opvoeding oor klimaatsverandering en konstruktivistiese onderrigbeginsels en -praktyk ingesluit. Die versamelde data is met persentasiefrekwensie geanaliseer om die onderwysers se vlak van geletterdheid in die wetenskap en pedagogie van klimaatsverandering te bepaal; die Mann-Whitney en Kruskal-Wallis toetse is gebruik om die invloed van bemiddelende veranderlikes op geletterdheid met betrekking tot die wetenskap en pedagogie van klimaatsverandering onderskeidelik te bepaal. Die resultate dui aan dat Aardrykskunde-onderwysers in die Wes-Kaap „Hoë‟ geletterdheid in die wetenskap van klimaatsverandering en „Lae‟ geletterdheid in die pedagogie van klimaatsverandering getoon het. Faktore soos ligging van die skool, geslag, ouderdom en onderrigervaring het ‟n betekenisvolle invloed op geletterdheid in klimaatsverandering gehad, terwyl kwalifikasie, spesialisasie, graad wat die meeste onderrig is en ervaring van onderrig oor klimaatsverandering nie so ‟n invloed gehad het nie. In teenstelling het onderrigervaring en graad wat die meeste onderrig is, ‟n betekenisvolle invloed op geletterdheid in klimaatsverandering gehad, terwyl ligging van die skool, geslag, ouderdom, kwalifikasie, spesialisasie en ervaring van onderrig oor klimaatsverandering nie so ‟n invloed gehad het nie. Op grond van hierdie resultate kan gesê word dat professionele ontwikkelingsingrypings in die pedagogie van klimaatsverandering nodig is om Aardrykskunde-onderwysers bloot te stel aan die doelwitte en belangrikheid van onderwys oor klimaatsverandering en metodes om probleemgebaseerde, leerdergesentreerde onderrig oor klimaatsverandering te fasiliteer.
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De, Waal Jan Hofmeyr. "Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/71654.
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Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.Severe floods in the Western Cape have caused significant damage to hydraulic structures, roads and other infrastructure over the past decade. The current design criteria for these structures and flood return level calculations are based on the concept of stationarity, which assumes that natural systems vary within an envelope of variability that does not change with time. In the context of regional climate change and projected changes in rainfall intensity, the basis for these calculations may become unrealistic with the passage of time. Hydraulic structures and other infrastructure may become more vulnerable to damaging floods because of changing hydroclimatic conditions. This project assesses the changes in extreme rainfall values over time across the Western Cape, South Africa. Using a Generalised Pareto Distribution, this study examines the changes in return levels across the Western Cape region for the periods 1900-1954 and 1955-2010. Of the 137 rainfall stations used in this research, 85 (62%) showed an increase in 50-year return level, 30 (22%) a decrease in 50-year return level and 22 (16%) stations displayed little change in rainfall intensity over time. While there were no clear spatial patterns to the results, they clearly indicate an increase in frequency of intense rainfalls in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st century. The changes in return level are also accompanied by a change in the frequency of high intensity 2-3 day long storms. 115 (84%) of the 137 rainfall stations showed an increase in the frequency of long duration, high intensity storms over the data record. This change generates a shifting risk profile of extreme rainfalls, which, in turn, creates challenges for the design of hydraulic structures and any infrastructure exposed to the resulting damaging floods. It can therefore be argued that it is inappropriate to design structures or manage water resources assuming stationarity of climate and that these principles should be assessed in order to reduce the risk of flood damage owing to increasing storm intensity. KEY WORDS Flood Risk, Stationarity, Disaster Risk, Hazard, Extreme Rainfall, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Climate
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Mqadi, Lwandle. "Production function analysis of the sensitivity of maize production to climate change in South Africa." Diss., Pretoria : [s.n.], 2005. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-02132006-083959.
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Lupindo, Yamkela. "The role of sense-of-place in climate-change adaptation: the case of Soweto-on Sea and Veeplaas." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/3318.
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The study has investigated the relationship between climate-change adaptation and the role of sense-of-place on people’s decisions regarding relocation, using Soweto-On-Sea and Veeplaas as case studies. The adoption of social science methods in the investigation led to the development of indicators, which themselves were derived from theories, which explained the building blocks of sense-of-place. These indicators: place attachment, place identity and place dependence, helped explain the connection people have with home, and how these connections are influenced and affected by interactions that take place in Soweto-on-Sea and Veeplaas. The fixed-mixed methodology, along with purposive-quota sampling, provided the means of investigating climate-change adaptation and sense-of-place in Soweto-on-Sea and Veeplaas. The three indicators were used in conjunction with a six-point ranking system, which was used to analyse the findings. The ranking system measured the degree of connection people have with home. A noticeable pattern between length-of-stay, and a very strong connection, could be recognised. A gradual increase in the degree of connection to home was recognised; as younger members of the two communities scored more moderately; and the oldest members (willing to sacrifice for a place, ranking five) scored highly. A strong interplay between the indicators could be observed; and thus, a single indicator on its own could not properly explain sense-of-place; but interactions between the two theories allowed for greater understanding. The youngest members of the two communities scored lower; because their connection was based on practical issues, access to schools, police stations, cheaper public transport and a sense-of-safety; as the members in the communities knew one another. Those residents who scored high on the ranking system had a much stronger bond, which went beyond practicality; as various interactions contributed to their sense-of-place. Sense-of-place contributes significantly to people’s decisions regarding relocation; and thus, fundamental benefits in incorporating a study of sense-of-place in climate-change adaptation would allow for greater understanding, and lead to improved ways of protecting people in areas at risk.
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Madzivhandila, Thanyani Selby. "The effects of climate change on household food production in rural Makhado Local Municipality, Limpopo Province." Thesis, University of Limpopo, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10386/1548.
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Thesis (Ph.D. (Administration)) -- University of Limpopo, 2015The thesis of this study is that food production systems for self-provisioning have historically constituted the backbone for survival and life-support in rural South Africa. Colonialism and apartheid capitalism bore harsh effects on the food production life support systems. However, these effects pale into insignificance compared to the present devastation of the food production systems associated with climate change. The contribution of rural South Africa towards climate change is at all scale negligible because poor people hold limited capacity to produce the deleterious gas emissions that allegedly causes global warming. However, the poor are disproportionately exposed to the adversarial effects of climate change and their food production systems have demonstrated beyond doubt that they cannot cope with stressors occasioned by climate change. Government policy and measures continue to be inadequate and inaccessible for rural households that produce for self-provisioning. The thesis further demonstrate that scientifically–based intervention measures adopted among rural poor in developing countries are viewed as alien and therefore not wholeheartedly adhered to by the users. The thesis points to this discrepancy to illustrate that the value systems among the rural population in South Africa describe changes in their food production in terms of climatic conditions that are, according to their belief systems, avoidable consequences of people’s conduct of life outside tradition, religion and so on. It engages a nascent argument relating to the failure of private and public scientifically-generated intervention measures within developing countries’ rurality, which is ironically exacerbated by the apparent inappropriateness and, often, destructiveness vi of the Green Revolution Technologies. As such interventions fail, the thesis points, they create skeletons of evidence, that appear to corroborate the traditionalist belief systems about the locus of causes of change in climatic conditions being extra-terrestrial as a consequence of people’s misconduct of life. The study investigates the effects of climate change on household food production systems in rural Makhado Local Municipality. 30 villages are used for this study in both households questionnaire survey, interview of the key informants and observation of different patterns of production process, geo-spatial features and current settlements patterns. The data analysis results reflect that different households within the municipality experiences variety of effects of climate change. Furthermore, the climatic conditions which consisted of enough reliable precipitation during food production stages have declined; rather in the post-1990 period, the area have been experiencing continuous heatwaves and drought which destroyed household’s crops and livestock. Using the normative and historical research designs the study found that the situation within villages has changed drastically because of climate change when comparing the conditions preand post-1990. The deliberate adoption of the historical design was crucial given that the thesis mission was to highlight the discrepancies in the so-called modern systems versus the traditionalist philosophies that continue to dominate the thinking and action rural populations in most developing countries. Equally, the historical design provides unquestionable possibility of applying appropriate research techniques to contextualize the research problem under investigation. Indeed, this manoeuvre has always been an important part and parcel of the research design and methodology because the thesis vii had to adopt a longitudinal research orientation through an appropriately designed data collection tool, specifically the questionnaire and interview schedule. From a philosophical perspective, the thesis demystifies the thinking that the so-called scientifically-generated interventions against climate change could resolve the attendant challenges, inclusive of food production. That is, it insinuates that appropriate research is needed for developing countries rurality in order to find intervention measures that are a product of the evolution of traditionalist value systems. Tacitly, the thesis challenges the statist and private sector habits of always parachuting the so-called scientifically generated solutions to climate change.
University of Limpopo Research Administration Department.
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Thorpe, Joanna Lucy. "Records of late Quaternary climatic change from Tswaing crater lake, South Africa, and the Central Kenyan Rift." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2006. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1445898/.
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The relative influence of precessionally-driven changes in direct insolation and changes in boundary conditions associated with glacial-interglacial cycles on climatic conditions at low latitudes remains uncertain. This thesis presents records of late Quaternary climatic change from Tswaing crater lake in South Africa and from the Naivasha and Nakuru-Elmenteita basins in the Central Kenya Rift, with the aim of increasing our understanding of the nature and causes of climatic change at low latitudes in Africa. The sedimentary sequence from Tswaing crater lake provides some of the longest terrestrial records of palaeoclimatic change in southern Africa, but the confidence associated with these records is limited by chronological uncertainty. This thesis presents five new 230Th/234U dates from the lower, previously undated section of the sequence, which are used to construct a new age-depth model for the sediments. When viewed in light of this chronology, new sedimentological, geochemical, and diatom assemblage records from the sequence indicate that boundary conditions associated with glacial-interglacial cycles determined climatic conditions at the site over the last -150 kyr, and that the obliquity of the earth's axis may have affected conditions between -150 and -350 kyr B.P. Diatomite beds deposited in the Naivasha and Nakuru-Elmenteita basins at the time of the last interglacial document a period in which deep, dilute lakes existed in the Central Kenya Rift. 518Odiatom records from these 40Ar/39Ar-dated beds are used to reconstruct palaeohydrological conditions during this lake-level highstand. The records indicate that lake levels in both basins responded to increases in precipitation driven by peaks in March and September insolation on the equator, and by increased tropical sea-surface temperatures. It is therefore concluded that precipitation in the Central Kenya Rift was influenced by both precessionally-driven changes in insolation and global boundary conditions during this period.
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Hoppe-Speer, Sabine Clara-Lisa. "Response of mangroves in South Africa to anthropogenic and natural impacts." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1012123.
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The total mangrove area cover in South Africa is 1631.7 ha, with the largest area cover in a few estuaries in the KwaZulu-Natal Province (1391.1 ha) and the remainder recorded in the Eastern Cape Province with 240.6 ha. This represents 0.05 percent of Africa‟s mangrove area cover and although small adds irreplaceable value to the biodiversity of South Africa. Mangroves are threatened by over-utilization through harvesting for firewood and building materials as well as excessive browsing and trampling by livestock. The objective of this study was to investigate the response of mangroves to different stressors from natural change as well as anthropogenic pressures. This was done by identifying pressures, measuring area cover, population structure and environmental parameters such as sediment characteristics. Mangroves in 17 estuaries along the east coast were investigated. Population structure and the area covered by mangroves in 2011/2012 were compared with data from the same area for 1999. Detailed studies were conducted in St. Lucia Estuary to investigate the response of mangroves to reduced tidal flooding; mangrove expansion at a latitudinal limit in a protected area at Nahoon Estuary was studied and the effect of cattle browsing on mangroves was measured at Nxaxo Estuary. The St. Lucia Estuary (28°S; 32°E) represented a unique study site as the mouth has been closed to the sea since 2002 and the mangrove habitats have been non-tidal. St. Lucia Estuary is both a Ramsar and World Heritage site and therefore understanding the response of mangroves to changes in the environment is important. In 2010 sediment characteristics and mangrove population structure were measured at four sites which were chosen to represent different salinity and water level conditions. The site fringing the main channel had the highest density of mangrove seedlings and saplings. The dry site had a lower density of mangroves with mostly only tall adult trees and few saplings. Mangrove tree height and density increased at sites with high sediment moisture and low surface sediment salinity. Few seedlings and saplings were found at sites with dry surface sediment and high salinity. Long term data are needed to assess the influence of mouth closure on recruitment and survival of the mangrove forest at St. Lucia Estuary; however this study has shown that sediment characteristics are unfavourable for mangrove growth at sites now characterized by a lack of tidal flooding. It is not known when exactly the mangroves were planted in Nahoon Estuary (32°S; 27° E), East London, but it is suspected that this was in the early 1970s. Avicennia marina (Forrsk.)Vierh. was planted first, followed a few years later by the planting of Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (L.) Lam. and Rhizophora mucronata (L.) among the larger A. marina trees. Surprisingly the mangrove population appears to be thriving and this study tested the hypothesis that mangroves have expanded and replaced salt marsh over a 33 year period. This study provides important information on mangroves growing at higher latitudes, where they were thought to not occur naturally due to lower annual average temperatures. It further provides insights on future scenarios of possible shifts in vegetation types due to climate change at one of the most southerly distribution sites worldwide. The expansion of mangroves was measured over a 33 year period (1978 - 2011) using past aerial photographs and Esri ArcGIS Desktop 10 software. In addition, field surveys were completed in 2011 to determine the population structure of the present mangrove forest and relate this to environmental conditions. The study showed that mangrove area cover increased linearly at a rate of 0.06 ha-1 expanding over a bare mudflat area, while the salt marsh area cover also increased (0.09 ha-1) but was found to be variable over time. The mangrove area is still small (< 2 ha) and at present no competition between mangroves and salt marsh can be deduced. Instead the area has the ability to maintain high biodiversity and biomass. Avicennia marina was the dominant mangrove species and had high recruitment (seedling density was 33 822 ± 16 364 ha-1) but only a few Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Rhizophora mucronata individuals were found (< 10 adult trees). The site provides opportunities for studies on mangrove / salt marsh interactions in response to a changing climate at the most southern limit of mangrove distribution in Africa. This research has provided the baseline data, permanent quadrats and tagged trees to be used in future long-term monitoring of population growth and sediment characteristics. At Nxaxo Estuary (32°S; 28°E) the response of mangrove trees (Avicennia marina) to cattle browsing and trampling was investigated by using cattle exclusion plots. Exclusion plots were established by fencing in five 25 m2 quadrats and adjacent to each experimental quadrat a control quadrat (not fenced in, 25 m2) was set-up. Trees were tagged and measured annually from 2010 to 2012. Sediment salinity, pH, moisture, organic content, compaction as well as sediment particle size was also measured in each quadrat. Sediment characteristics did not vary between control and experimental plots but did show changes between the years. The mangrove trees in the cattle exclusion plots grew exponentially over a period of two years. There was a significant increase in mean plant height (5.41 ± 0.53 cm), crown volume (0.54 ± 0.01 m3) and crown diameter (7.09 ± 0.60 cm) from 2010 to 2012. Trees in the control plots had significantly lower growth (p < 0.05). There was a decrease in plant height (-0.07 ± 0.67cm1) and only small increases in crown volume (0.14 ± 0.1 m3) and crown diameter (2.03 ± 2.61 cm). The research showed that browsing on mangroves by cattle stunts growth and causes a shrubby appearance as a result of coppicing. The browsed trees were dwarfed with horizontal spreading of branches and intact foliage close to the ground while the plants in the cattle exclusion plots showed an increase in vertical growth and expansion. In the cattle exclusion plots there was a significantly higher percentage of flowering (67 percent) and fruiting (39 percent) trees in 2012 compared to the control sites where 34 percent of the plants were flowering and 5.4 percent of the plants carried immature propagules. Observations in the field also indicated that cattle had trampled a number of seedlings thus influencing mangrove survival. The study concluded that browsing changes the morphological structure of mangrove trees and reduces growth and seedling establishment. This is an additional stress that the mangroves are exposed to in rural areas where cattle are allowed to roam free. Seventeen permanently open estuaries provide habitat for mangrove forests along the former Transkei coast. This part of the Eastern Cape is mostly undeveloped and difficult to access. Mangrove area cover, species distribution, population structure and health of the mangrove habitat were compared with results from previous studies in 1982 and 1999. The mangrove Bruguiera gymnorrhiza had the densest stands and was widely distributed as it was present in 13 of the 17 estuaries. Avicennia marina was dominant in those estuaries which had the largest area cover of mangroves and was present in 10 estuaries, while Rhizophora mucronata was rare and only present in five estuaries. Anthropogenic and natural impacts were noted within the mangrove habitats in each of these estuaries. Harvesting of mangrove wood, livestock browsing and trampling and footpaths occurred in most of the estuaries (> 70 percent). It was observed that browsing on trees resulted in a clear browse-line and browsing on propagules mainly by goats resulted in reduced seedling establishment in most of the estuaries except those in protected areas. Mangroves had re-established in estuaries where they had been previously lost but mouth closure due to drought and sea storms resulted in the mass die back of mangroves in the Kobonqaba Estuary. There was a total loss of 31.5 ha in mangrove area cover in the last 30 years and this was a total reduction of 10.5 ha (11 percent) for every decade. This is high considering that the present total mangrove area cover is only 240.6 ha for all the Transkei estuaries. In this study it was concluded that the anthropogenic impacts such as livestock browsing and trampling as well as harvesting in these estuaries contributed most to the mangrove degradation as these are continuous pressures occurring over long periods and are expected to increase in future with increasing human population. Natural changes such as sea storms occur less frequently but could result in large scale destruction over shorter periods. Examples of these are mouth closure that result in mangrove mass mortality as well as strong floods which destroy forest by scouring of the banks.
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Shoko, Witness Alvis. "Smallholder farmer's climate change knowledge in Ngqushwa Local Municipality, Eastern Cape : implications on coping and adaptation." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/6480.
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Lack of knowledge about climate change poses a greater risk to human development in general. This study emerges from the premise that agriculture, and more specifically smallholder farmers, are the most affected by climate variability due to the type of assets they hold. Among other factors, climate change can directly and adversely impact the ability of smallholder farmers to sustain their livelihoods. Taking into consideration spatial differences across Ngqushwa Local Municipality, smallholder farmers in different areas have to understand the constraints they face that emanate from climate change. The study aimed to explore the knowledge that smallholder farmers in Ngqushwa local municipality have on climate change, strategies they utilise to cope and minimise the detrimental effects of climate change. The study also focused on climate change information sources namely, meteorological and Indigenous Knowledge (IK) that smallholder farmers have at their disposal for coping and adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, the study analyses comprehensiveness and usefulness of information that the resource-poor farmers possess. The findings of this study show that smallholder farmers in Ngqushwa local municipality access climate change information through televisions, newspapers and listening to the radio. Their knowledge of the behaviour of birds, moon, wind, and insects is also an important source of forecasting weather patterns. Recommendations from this study include the following: enhancing and widening the sources of climate change information, education encompassing the nature of climate change, networking of smallholder farmers, linking meteorological and indigenous knowledge and supplementing natural water supply.
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Vincent, Katharine. "Gendered vulnerability to climate change in Limpopo province, South Africa." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.439905.
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Agenbag, Lize. "A study on an altitudinal gradient investigating the potential effects of climate change on Fynbos and the Fynbos-succulent Karoo boundary /." Thesis, Link to the online version, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10019/954.
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Oosthuizen, Hamman Jacobus. "Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa." Thesis, Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/95831.
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Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Numerous studies indicate that the agricultural sector is physically and economically vulnerable to climate change. In order to determine possible impacts of projected future climates on the financial vulnerability of selective farming systems in South Africa, a case study methodology was applied. The integrated modelling framework consists of four modules, viz.: climate change impact modelling, dynamic linear programming (DLP) modelling, modelling interphases and financial vulnerability assessment modelling. Empirically downscaled climate data from five global climate models (GCMs) served as base for the integrated modelling. The APSIM crop model was applied to determine the impact of projected climates on crop yield for certain crops in the study. In order to determine the impact of projected climates on crops for which there are no crop models available, a unique modelling technique, Critical Crop Climate Threshold (CCCT) modelling, was developed and applied to model the impact of projected climate change on yield and quality of agricultural produce. Climate change impact modelling also takes into account the projected changes in irrigation water availability (ACRU hydrological model) and crop irrigation requirements (SAPWAT3 model) as a result of projected climate change. The model produces a set of valuable results, viz. projected changes in crop yield and quality, projected changes in availability of irrigation water, projected changes in crop irrigation needs, optimal combination of farming activities to maximize net cash flow, and a set of financial criteria to determine economic viability and financial feasibility of the farming system. A set of financial criteria; i.e. internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), cash flow ratio, highest debt ratio, and highest debt have been employed to measure the impact of climate change on the financial vulnerability of farming systems. Adaptation strategies to lessen the impact of climate change were identified for each case study through expert group discussions, and included in the integrated modelling as alternative options in the DLP model. This aims at addressing the gap in climate change research, i.e. integrated economic modelling at farm level; thereby making a contribution to integrated climate change modelling.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die fisiese sowel as ekonomiese kwesbaarheid van die landbousektor as gevolg van klimaatverandering word deur verskeie studies beklemtoon. ‘n Gevallestudie-benadering is gebruik ten einde die potensiële impak van klimaatsverandering op die finansiële kwesbaarheid van verskillende boerderystelsels te bepaal. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel bestaan uit vier modelleringsmodules, naamlik: klimaatsverandering, dinamiese liniêre programmering (DLP), interfases en finansiële-kwesbaarheidsontleding. Empiries afgeskaalde klimatologiese data van vyf verskillende klimaatmodelle dien as basis vir die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel. Die APSIM gewas-model word aangewend om die impak van klimaatsverandering op gewasse-opbrengs te bepaal. Vir sekere gewasse is daar egter nie modelle beskikbaaar nie en het gevolglik die ontwikkeling van ‘n nuwe model genoodsaak. Die Kritiese Gewasse Klimaatsdrempelwaarde (KGKD) modelleringstegniek is ontwikkel ten einde die impak van klimaatsverandering op die opbrengs en kwaliteit van gewasse te kwantifiseer. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel neem ook die verwagte verandering in besproeiingswaterbeskikbaarheid (ACRU-hidrologiemodel) en gewas-besproeiingsbehoeftes (SAPWAT3-model) as gevolg van klimaatsverandering in ag. Die model lewer waardevolle resultate op, naamlik: geprojekteerde veranderinge in gewasse-opbrengs en -kwaliteit, geprojekteerde verandering in beskikbaarheid van besproeiingswater en gewasse-besproeiingsbehoeftes, die optimale kombinering van boerdery-aktiwiteite om netto kontantvloei te maksimeer, asook ‘n stel finansiële resultate wat die impak van klimaatsverandering kwantifiseer. Die finansiële kriteria sluit in: interne opbrengskoers, netto huidige waarde, kontanvloeiverhouding, hoogste skuldverhouding en hoogste skuldvlak. Deur middel van deskundige-groepbesprekings is aanpassingstrategieë vir elk van die gevallestudies geïdentifiseer en by die geïntegreerde model ingesluit as alternatiewe opsies in die DLP-model. Die studie poog om die gaping in die huidige klimaatsveranderingnavorsing met betekking tot ‘n geïntegreerde ekonomiese model op plaasvlak aan te spreek en sodoende ‘n bydrae tot geïntegreerde klimaatveranderingmodellering te maak.
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Stadler, Leigh Tessa. "Assessing household assets to understand vulnerability to HIV/Aids and climate change in the Eastern Cape, South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001655.
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Livelihood stressors in southern Africa, such as HIV/Aids and climate change, do not act in isolation but rather interact concurrently in complex socio-ecological systems with diverse, interrelated and compounded affects. Households experience differential vulnerability to such stressors based on contextual factors such as geographical location, income level and the gender and age of its members. Households’ differential experiences of vulnerability are further defined by the households’ use of their capital stocks: the human, social, natural, financial and physical capital available to the household to form livelihoods and resist the detrimental effects of a stressor. The capital stocks of 340 households were measured in two sites in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, using a household survey. These data were analysed to determine differences between the sites, households with heads of different gender and households of different income levels. Further data relating to the drivers and interactions of stressors over temporal and spatial scales, as well as the perceived value of various forms of capital by different social groups in the two sites, were collected via Participatory Learning and Action (PLA) methods including timelines, mental modelling and pair-wise ranking. Although the two sites have similar levels of income and fall within the same province, many significant differences emerged. The two sites showed different distributions of household head genders and different stressors and perceptions of vulnerability, perhaps owing to differences in their capital stocks, acting alongside the influence of culture and access on a shifting rural-urban continuum. These discrepancies further transpired to reflect crucial differential experiences along gender lines and income levels in each site. Vulnerability was often context specific, not only because of unique drivers of stress in different areas, but also because socio-economic groups and localities often had characteristics that could potentially exacerbate vulnerability, as well as characteristics that can potentially facilitate adaptive capacity. Stressors were found to have depleted multiple forms of capital over time, while new stressors were emerging, raising concerns over the most appropriate means of social protection within these contexts.
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Crisp, Abigail Gilmour. "Development role players' knowledge of ecological infrastructure in Eden district, South Africa." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/8725.
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Coastal disasters have been increasing in intensity and frequency around the world causing loss of life and millions of Rands’ worth of damage to infrastructure. Coastal communities are growing as more people are drawn to urban areas. These people depend on the services the coastal ecosystem provide but through degradation and land use change the supply of services is reduced. The ability of these communities and landscapes to bounce back from disturbance has been severely hampered. As a result communities are looking for ways in which they can protect their lives and their assets and become more resilient. Through development planning structures such as coastal foredunes, that offer a buffering capacity against storm surges, can be used to strengthen the resilience of coastal communities. The type of defences used in communities would be dependent on the knowledge of the decision makers. This study explores the discourses and practices that are present in development processes regarding ecological infrastructure (in its buffering capacity for risk reduction) as an option for adaptation to global environmental change in the coastal areas of Eden District. Qualitative data collection and analysis techniques were used. In-depth interviews were used to collect data, which was transformed into frequency data using content analysis. Descriptive statistics was then applied to the coded frequencies. The interpretation of the data was presented alongside the frequency data, via the descriptive statistics and quotations from interviews. It was determined that role players in development processes are aware of the complexities surrounding coastal social-ecological systems and understand the role foredunes play as ecological infrastructure within this system. Those who lack knowledge are aware of their knowledge gaps. Participants believe the study area is at risk due to human impacts and overall, participants felt that there is a general lack of awareness with regard to issues affecting our coastline, compounded by the absence of an enabling environment brought about by a lack of finances and time.
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Rabie, Elsa. "The impact of climate change on human security in South Africa." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/2214.
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Thesis (MA (Political Science))--Stellenbosch University, 2008.The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is conclusive that climate change will lead to scarcity of the basic resources that sustain life for people around the world – fresh water supplies, food production and land for habitation and cultivation. It is argued that environmental scarcity leads to migration which in turn results in conflict in the receiving area as competition over resources develops. Based on the main theories relating to resource scarcity and conflict, the purpose of this study is to examine the link between climate change and human security. The relevance of this research is the fact that the Stern Review concludes that climate change poses a serious threat to the world and that Africa will be one of the hardest hit continents. Africa is already vulnerable to climate variability and has the least capacity to respond, and this study aims to establish the impacts of resource scarcity on human security in South Africa. The theoretical approach addresses the much debated concept of ‘human security’ as it has developed since the end of the Cold War and the analysis is based on the main conflict theories that maintain that competition over access to scarce resources is one of the root causes of violent conflict. The research design for this study is of an empirical nature with the units of analysis being states, physical events and processes and the resulting human actions. It is a descriptive analysis, interpreting the impact of climate change on scarce resources and the resulting propensity for conflict. Much of the violence against migrants has been the result of varying degrees of xenophobia amongst all racial groups in South Africa. This study proposes the hypothesis that migration results in increased competition over scarce resources in receiving areas, which as a result of xenophobia leads to conflict. Based on the theoretical arguments put forward, the paper aims to determine what policy options for adaptation, mitigation and governance would be most likely to reduce the harmful impacts of climate change on vulnerable regions and groups of people in South Africa and neighbouring countries in order to contain migration and lessen the likelihood of violent conflict. Having identified xenophobia as a spark that could ignite violent inter-group conflict it would be useful to gain some theoretical insight into reducing group prejudice and attaining group cooperation through inter-group contact. It is apparent that there is no single theoretical approach that can be applied to gain a better insight into the complex link between resource scarcity and conflict. The different theories are mutually compatible and each theoretical perspective contributes a partial elaboration to and additional insights into the climate change/conflict hypothesis. There is possibly room for a new theoretical approach to gain a better understanding of the complexity and the uncertainties that are inherent in the study of a mechanism as complex as climate change. South Africa has the responsibility to use its global political influence to promote a shared understanding of responsible behaviour across all societies. Active participation will enable South Africa to guide global negotiations towards outcomes that will lessen the impact of climate change on the most vulnerable countries and populations. In conclusion, possible policies and actions are identified that could support these objectives. Without urgent, appropriate intervention climate change will undermine any efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, and a crippled African continent will be a threat to world security.
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Banda, Musale Hamangaba. "A critical analysis of the management of climate change risk among short-term insurers in South Africa: evidence from company annual reports." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003943.
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This study investigates the extent to which South African short-term insurance companies manage climate change risk, as evidenced in their annual and sustainability reporting. The study context takes into account the fact that the world’s climate has been changing at a more accelerated rate since the early 1970s, causing disasters that have negatively affected world economies in the last ten years. Insurers, due to their huge financial resource base, long history of spurring innovation around risk and encouraging loss-reducing behaviour as well as high levels of vulnerability, have been identified as one industry that could lead societies in finding solutions to climate change risk. A key element of such a corporate resolve involves taking a leadership position which makes business sense for insurers. As such, this research analyses how innovative solutions to change-related problems could result in reduced exposure to climate change in line with corporate triple bottom line objectives. Based on a purposive sampling of short-term insurance companies operating in the South African market during the 2007 financial year, the study uses the companies’ annual and sustainability reports in order to critically assess evidence of climate change-related performance. The assessment is undertaken against the best practice indicators of climate change risk management, as defined by Ceres – a global researcher on climate change management in the business context. The data analysis is largely qualitative, consisting of a narrative presentation of the results and a conceptual application of the results to the triple bottom line which forms the theoretical framework of this study. The study finds that the South African short-term insurers were generally not living up to the climate change management ideals, in comparison to their multinational counterparts. For the South African short-term insurers, corporate strategic product innovation and planning was insignificant. Also negligible was board involvement, as well as CEO involvement, though in at least one case of the 4 local short-term insurance, there was evidence of extensive CEO involvement in climate change risk management. On the whole, these findings represent a lapse in corporate governance inasmuch as climate change risk management is concerned. Local short-term insurers generally performed well in the area of public disclosure, with their scores ranging from insignificant to extensive. In contrast, multinational short-term insurers’ performance with regard to climate change risk intervention ranged from insignificant tointegrated, across the five governance areas of board oversight, management execution, public disclosure, emissions accounting and strategic planning. As such, the study broadly recommends that short-term insurers in South Africa should make climate change part of their overall risk management strategies in order for them to remain competitive in an environment of increased climate change-related risk. More specifically, the research project recommends that the local insurers should proactively lead climate change mitigation measures through, for instance, investing in clean energy projects and incentivising their clients’ participation in the carbon market to prepare themselves for possible regulatory restrictions after the Copenhagen climate change conference planned for December 2009. This study also challenges insurers to help communities and as well as other businesses in their value chain to reduce their negative impacts on the world’s climate and to be more resilient against disasters which may arise from the high levels of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. Further, it recommends that insurers should create internal board and executive level climate change-related structures, as these will facilitate the integration of the proposed initiatives into their overall sustainability strategies. Above all, the study recommends that insurers should enhance the reporting of their climate change-related risk, opportunities and initiatives to improve their integrity.
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Clarke, Caryn Lee. "Responses to the linked stressors of climate change and HIV/AIDS amongst vulnerable rural households in the Eastern Cape, South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003818.
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Climate change and the HIV/AIDS epidemic are two of the most critical long-term global challenges, especially for Africa and even more so Southern Africa. There is great concern that the poor will be unable to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change while HIV/AIDS will exacerbate the impacts of such stressors and deepen the insecurities of many communities already affected by this disease. Studies that consider the interlinked effects of climate change and HIV/AIDS along with other multiple stressors are increasingly needed. This study, located in two rural communities in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, namely Lesseyton and Willowvale, assessed the responses of vulnerable households to the linked shocks and stressors of climate change and HIV/AIDS. This involved assessing, through household surveys, life history interviews and Participatory Learning and Action (PLA), the way in which multiple stressors interacted and affected vulnerable households, the way in which these households responded to and coped with such shocks and stressors, and the barriers which prevented them from coping and adapting effectively. Unemployment emerged as the dominant stress amongst households. The lack of development and having too few opportunities for employment has limited vulnerable households from being able to invest in assets, such as education or farming equipment. This, in combination with the impacts of increased food and water insecurity from recent drought, has created an extremely vulnerable environment for these households. They rely largely on two important safety-nets, namely social capital and the use of natural and cultivated resources; however the latter has been limited due to the impacts of water scarcity and an inability to farm. It was evident that there was little planned long-term adaptation amongst households and from government. Maladaptive short-term coping strategies, such numerous household members depending on one social grant and transactional sex, were too often relied upon, and although they may have helped relieve the stress of shocks momentarily, they did not provide for the long-term well-being of individuals and households. Poor communication and capacity between the different levels of government and between the government (especially at the local level) and the two rural communities has created an environment full of uncertainty and lacking in advocacy. Local government needs increased human, informational, and financial capacity and a clear delegation of responsibilities amongst the different departments in order for the two communities to benefit from the implementation of support strategies. There is also a great need for educational programmes and capacity development within the two rural communities, particularly based on improved coping and longer-term adaptation strategies in response to climate change in order for households to better prepare themselves for the future.
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Nzante, Ekiyie. "Improving socio-ecological resilience strategies of climate change in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018823.
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The Kyoto Protocol of UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) postulated that anthropogenic causes are the main drivers of global climate change. This Kyoto Protocol was ratified by South Africa, with South Africa accepting all the binding commitments. Since then South Africa has promulgated legislations which cater for the environment and the reduction of the greenhouse gases respectively, with the aim of promoting sustainable development. The South African constitution has recognised the environment in Section 24. This is the birth place of the “Environmental Clauses” which do not only speak to the national government but are also broken down to the provincial and local government. This study was grounded within the field of Development studies and undertook a case study of improving the socio-ecological resilience strategies of climate changes in Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole (NMBM). The study employed the use of semi-structure interviews whereby a questionnaire was used to guide the researcher in the interview process. A total of 23 officials were interviewed, ranging from governmental departments (municipality) through civil societies to private consultants, in order to avoid the generation of biases. The data obtained from respondents were presented, analysed, and discussed. From the data collected, it was possible to single out certain barriers to climate change resilience initiative in NMBM. Some of these barriers include the lack of awareness of climate change resilience issues, lack of political will, lack of funding, and the poor concern given to climate change issues since the municipality does not consider it a core issue. Based on the study findings, the main recommendation offered to NMBM was the creation of a Sustainable Development Framework, which will provide a perfect platform for development, acknowledge the threat posed by the negative effects of climate change, and enhance opportunities to execute climate change projects in NMBM.
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Dapilah, Frederick. "Climate change adaptation in the Global South." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/21309.
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Die Folgen des Klimawandels, sowie damit einhergehende Verluste und Schäden nehmen weltweit zu. Der damit verbundene globale Anstieg von Treibhausgasemissionen, zunehmende Verstädterung sowie ausufernder Konsum machen die Suche nach Anpassungsstrategien zur Vermeidung schädlicher Auswirkungen gegenwärtig wie zukünftig zu einer erheblichen Herausforderung. Diese erfordert ein tiefgehendes Verständnis der Komplexität vom Klimawandelfolgen für landwirtschaftsbasierte Existenzgrundlagen. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es zu einem solchen Verständnis beizutragen. Die vorliegende Forschungsarbeit fragt daher danach, wie etwaige Umstellungsprozesse die Anpassungsfähigkeit sowie Resilienz der Bewohner_innen von Bagri, einem kleinen Dorf im Norden Ghanas, erweitern. Die Ergebnisse dieser Dissertationsschrift basieren auf empirischen Erhebungen, die zwischen Februar und Juli 2017 in Lawra District in Nordghana unter Heranziehung qualitativer Fallstudieninstrumente durchgeführt wurden. Zum Einsatz kamen semi-strukturierte Interviews, Fokusgruppendiskussionen, Umfragen sowie ethnographische teilnehmende Beobachtungen. Die so gewonnenen Daten wurden kodiert und mit SPSS (Version 20) kreuztabellarisch sowie anhand verschiedener Variablen ausgewertet. Außerdem wurden Häufigkeiten interpretiert und die Ergebnisse schließlich in Tabellen, Graphen und Prozentsätzen verarbeitet. Des Weiteren wurden inhaltlichen Analysen der qualitativen Daten vorgenommen, die es erlaubten, Muster und Themen aus den Interviews und Diskussionen weiter zu verfolgen. Die Resultate zeigen, dass die Bewohner_innen in der untersuchten Gemeinde über die letzten drei Jahrzehnte eine Reihe klimatischer Veränderungen mit negativen Folgen für die Landwirtschaft erfahren haben. Um sich beispielsweise an die klimawandelbedingte kürzere Dauer der Regenzeit sowie niedrige Niederschlagsmengen anzupassen, greifen Kleinbauern auf schrittweise Anpassungsstrategien wie verbessertes Saatgut und weitere unterstützende Maßnahmen zurück. Paradoxerweise, untergraben Klimawandelextreme derlei Strategien auf mehreren Ebenen und reduzieren Erträge um ein Vielfaches ihres Potenzials, was wiederum finanzieller Verschuldung Vorschub leistet. Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie zeigen daher, dass die Überwindung nicht-klimatischer Barrieren landwirtschaftlicher Anpassungsstrategien eine notwendige wenn auch nicht ausreichende Bedingung für eine erfolgreiche Umstellung darstellt. Immer neu aufkommende Schwierigkeiten machen Anpassung zu einem langfristigen Prozess. Eine zweite Erkenntnis dieser Arbeit ist, dass die sich wandelnden klimatischen Verhältnisse zu einer Diversifizierung der Lebensgrundlagen weg von landwirtschaftlicher Produktion hin zu Aktivitäten jenseits der Höfe in Bagri geführt haben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Prozess der Diversifizierung abhängig ist von der Einbindung der Haushalte in Gruppenaktivitäten sowie in formelle und informelle Netzwerke. Zusammenfassend gilt, dass Haushalte, die engmaschig in soziale Netze eingebettet sind eine höhere Resilienz gegenüber wahrgenommenen klimatischen Veränderungen aufweisen. Dies liegt darin begründet, dass sie zumeist über einen besseren Zugang zu kritischen – materiellen wie immateriellen – Ressourcen verfügen, welche Diversifizierung maßgeblich ermöglichen. Zudem deuten die Befunde an, wie Gruppenaktivitäten und soziale Netzwerke Marginalisierung und widersprüchlichen Ressourcenumgang befeuern können, die zugleich die Gefahr bergen, soziale und ökologische Resilienz im Dorf zu verringern. Darüber hinaus zeigt diese Arbeit die Mechanismen kollaborativer Anpassungssteuerung auf, indem sie den Fragen nachgeht, warum und wie diese Steuerungsformen Anpassungsfähigkeit befördern. Die Ergebnisse verweisen auf die Beziehungsdynamiken zwischen den relevanten Akteuren sowie Nutzen und Misserfolge und die Herausforderungen nachhaltiger kollaborativer Anpassungsstrategien in Nordghana. Ergänzend, stellt diese Studie heraus, wie machtvolle Akteure Agenden setzen, Problematisierungen generieren sowie Regeln und Anreize schaffen, die im Widerspruch zu den normativen Grundsätzen der kollaborativen Anpassungstheorie stehen können. Ausgehend von der Fallstudie in Nordghana stellt diese Arbeit auch Überlegungen dazu an, wie kollaborative Anpassungssteuerung erfolgreichen Umgang mit klimawandelbedingten Veränderungen weltweit befördern kann. Zusammenfassend, leistet diese Arbeit einen Beitrag zur Schließung theoretischer wie empirischer Wissenslücken im wachsenden Bereich der Forschung zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Sie illustriert darüber hinaus den unschätzbaren Wert qualitativer Fallstudien und zeigt auf, wie diese einen Beitrag leisten können zu oftmals abstrakten und schwer fassbaren Themen in der wissenschaftlichen Diskussion und damit ein Fundament für informierte politische Entscheidungen sowohl auf lokaler als auch globaler Ebene legen.Climate change impacts, related losses and damages are increasing globally. When these consequences are coupled with increasing global greenhouse gas emission, urban expansion and unsustainable consumption, the pursuit of adaptation to avoid adverse outcomes is a present necessity and a significant future challenge. The overarching aim of this doctoral dissertation is to gain a better understanding of the complexity of climate change impacts on agricultural livelihoods and how adaptation processes enhance adaptive capacity and resilience in Bagri, a small village in northern Ghana. The results presented in this doctoral thesis are based on empirical data obtained between February and July, 2017 in the Lawra District of northern Ghana using qualitative case study research methods: semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions, survey and ethnographic participant observation. Data from the survey were coded and inputted into Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) version 20 and cross tabulation and analysis of different variables and interpretation of frequencies were done and processed into tables, graphs and percentages. Content analyses of qualitative data were done which allowed patterns and themes in interviews and discussions to be derived and interpreted. The findings show that, people in the studied community have experienced a range of climatic changes with negative impacts on agriculture in the last three decades. In order to adapt to the short duration of the rainy season and low rainfall amounts associated with climate change, smallholder farmers use incremental adaptation strategies such as improved crop varieties and other support strategies. Paradoxically, however, climate change extremes (CCEs) undermined these strategies in several instances, causing crop yields to fall short of their actual potential leading to financial indebtedness. The results therefore, showcase that surmounting non-climatic barriers to the uptake of agricultural adaptation strategies is a necessary but not sufficient condition to achieving successful outcomes, as new barriers in the adaptation process beyond uptake are constantly emerging with CCEs being one example. Secondly, the findings show that climatic changes have necessitated livelihood diversification away from crop production and into off-farm and non-farm activities in Bagri. The results highlight how the process of diversification is dependent on household participation in various group activities and formal and informal social networks. Generally, households in dense social networks were found to be more resilient to perceived climate changes because they had access to the critical resources (material and non-material) essential for diversification. Importantly, the findings shed light on how group activities and social networks can create marginalization and conflicting resource use with the potential of undermining social and ecological resilience in the village. Moreover, this dissertation explores the mechanics of collaborative adaptation governance (CAG) addressing questions of why and how this mode of governance facilitates adaptive capacity. The findings illuminate stakeholder relational dynamics, benefits and failures, and the sustainability challenge of collaborative adaptation governance (CAG) in northern Ghana. More importantly, this study unveils how powerful actors set the agenda, frame problems, and implement rules and incentives contrary to the normative tenets of collaborative governance theory. Ultimately, the results highlights the failures, successes and sustainability challenges of CAG in northern Ghana, while also providing insight into the extent to which CAG approaches can facilitate adaptation to climate change globally. In conclusion, this doctoral dissertation responds to both theoretical and emperical knowledge gaps in the burgeoning climate change adaptation research, and illustrates how invaluable, qualitative case studies can contribute to illuminate some of the elusive themes in the literature and provide evidence for policy making at both local and global levels.
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Singh, Karishma. "Population dynamics of the Zuurberg Cycad and the predicted impact of climate change." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1012857.
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Cycads first appeared about 300 million years ago and historical data indicates that they survived fluctuations of global temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations and reached peak abundance during periods where temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations were much higher than the present conditions as well as the predicted increased levels. With Africa being one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and in the absence of an evaluation of predicted impacts of climate change on cycads, this study aims to contribute to our understanding of responses of Encephalartos longifolius to increased temperature. Encephalartos longifolius (Jacq.) Lehm is an Eastern Cape endemic and like most cycads has been around for millions of years with very little change to its basic structure. Photosynthetic rates showed E.longifolius seedlings have C3 photosynthesis and even under stress they do not switch over to CAM photosynthesis. The photosynthetic rates of seedlings showed a typical C3 -plant type response under elevated carbon dioxide levels. Increased temperatures could be detrimental to the species but coupled with elevated carbon dioxide levels the growth of Encephalartos longifolius are postulated to outweigh the negative impacts of increased temperatures. Whilst climatic conditions in the Eastern Cape might not impact the abundance of Encephalartos longifolius, the species however is declining rapidly to the present near-threatened status. Demographic studies revealed a high percentage of juvenile numbers in the wild; however juvenile plants are impacted on by animals thereby jeopardizing their survival. Adult plants are heavily impacted on by animals; this reduces the probability of new offspring being produced. Cycads are also very slow - growing which is the primary cause of their ruin in the wild. Encephalartos longifolius grows at just over approximately 1 cm per year with growth being more rapid in the juvenile plants. Once juvenile plants reach approximately 60 cm they stop growing in diameter but only get taller. Seed germination is also a very slow process with an optimum temperature of 28°C and a growth medium of at least 50 percent moisture. Regardless of the Eastern Cape predicted to become the hottest province in South Africa as a result of climate change, cycads will be able to adapt to the changing environment and conservation plans should focus on animal and human impacts that are the major force causing decreasing abundance of Encephalartos longifolius in the wild.
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Chigavazira, Blessing Munyaradzi. "Adapting to climate change to achieve household food security: a case study of small-scale farmers at Dzindi smallholder irrigation scheme in the Limpopo Province of South Africa." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007186.
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This dissertation explored adaptation mechanisms and adaptation options employed by rural small-scale farmers at Dzindi Irrigation Scheme to achieve food security in the midst of climate change as well as reflecting on the role of the state in building capacity of rural small-scale farmers to adapt to climate change. The study employed qualitative research techniques and data was obtained through semi-structured interviews with 40 small-scale farmers at Dzindi smallholder irrigation scheme.Irrigation control, high yielding crop varieties (HYVs), drought resistant crop varieties, drip irrigation are among a host of adaptation strategies successfully employed by farmers at Dzindi. These strategies have been effective in giving the farmers a lifeline in terms of household food supply and income.However, lack of funding, modern infrastructure and equipment has hampered adaptation efforts at the scheme. This has been compounded by lack of support from the Government. Government seemingly has not done enough to capacitate and assist famers to adapt to climate change.
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Busayo, Emmanuel Tolulope. "Township spatial planning and climate change adaptation : a case of Mdantsane in Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/6005.
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Spatial planning plays a significant role in enhancing climate change adaptation especially within an urban area. The alignment of spatial planning with climate change adaptation opens an opportunity to improve resilience in areas of high vulnerability and manage the unavoidable. This mini-dissertation examines township spatial planning and climate change adaptation in identifying potentialities for an integrated approach. Therefore, Mdantsane case study as one of the largest townships in South Africa was explored as a unique landscape with reminiscent of apartheid to improve the people’s climate change adaptation under urban poverty, lack of basic facilities and other environmental challenges. In keeping with a case study design, mixed methods were adopted in data collection and analysis making use of GIS and remote sensing techniques alongside pretested open and close-ended questionnaires. The study reveals that townships are extremely susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to their built-up and natural environment set up as well as the existing interrelations. Based on this study major findings, Mdantsane built up cover in year 1996 was 269.496 km2 followed by vegetation area of about 142.272 km2; the area covered by water body was 31.554 km2 while other land surface features cover about 317.277 km2. It was revealed that there was a drastic change in vegetation cover between 1996 and 2016, where built up cover area increased to 375.552 km2 and vegetation cover is 119.277 km2 while water body and other land features cover was about 29.889 and 235.881 km2 respectively. Furthermore, 66 percent of the respondents agreed that agriculture is the predominant land use activity been carried out in the study area, respondents at 74.4 percent affirmed that solid waste and sanitation problems are environmental issues which can lead to climate change over time as a result of the burning of garbage. It is worthy to note that 70 percent of the entire respondents have not participated in any spatial planning process in the past. Thus, comprehensive integration of spatial planning is essential for townships proofing, health, wellbeing and resilience. To this end, the five P’s model (Policy, Public participation, Programme implementation, Political will and Programme monitoring) integration was proposed to seek strategic intervention in sustaining adaptation of local residents to climate change in the future with specific focus to reduce climate and environmental risks in Mdantsane Township.
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Brooks, Haydn. "The role of field and garden cultivation for food security under a changing climate: the case of Fairbairn and Ntloko villages, Eastern Cape." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/58013.
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The world is becoming more complex due to the increasing occurrence of social-ecological change. This is particularly evident in the developing world, especially on the African continent, where existing vulnerabilities (i.e. endemic poverty, weak governance, overpopulation and HIV/AIDS) are being exacerbated by the impact of climate change. Climate change poses a very real threat to millions of Africans, especially those who rely on the natural world for their livelihoods. The increasing variability of climate and rainfall patterns are said to have dire consequences on agricultural production which is the main livelihood activity of rural dwellers across the continent. The impacts of such change and variability include, changes in the frequency and intensity of droughts, flooding and heavy storms, leading to worsening soil conditions, desertification as well as disease and pest out-breaks which will likely result in reduced crop and livestock yields. A reduction in agricultural production will likely have a negative effect on the food security of millions of people. This study was conducted in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, in two rural villages, Fairbairn and Ntloko located in the former Ciskei homeland, with the purpose of exploring the nexus between climate change, cultivation and food security. This study combined social-ecological thinking with that of political ecology to create a robust lens, in which to analyse the complex interactions between humans and the environment. A mixed methods approach was used to gather the data which consisted of a household survey, using a structured questionnaire as well as semi-structured interviews with various respondents. Quantitative data were analysed using Excel and Statistica 13, whilst coding was used for qualitative data. The main aim of the study was to explore the extent and characteristics of cultivation in the two study sites, the role of household food production in food security as well as the challenges that local cultivator’s face with regards to climate change. In recent decades, there has been a decline in rural agricultural production with many fields that were previously cultivated, lying vacant and unused. However, as this study found, cultivation is still important as over 50% of sampled households cultivated a small area within the homestead. This was mainly done to supplement household food expenditure in order to save cash incomes. The results also found that although participants had perceived negative changes in climate and rainfall (amount, onset, duration), it was not considered the most important challenge for own production. Rather, lack of fencing and capital were seen as major hindrances to efficient own production. Understanding the complexity of own production and food security under a changing climate can help form better and more resilient policies and strategies for rural development, in addition to strengthening future livelihoods of rural people in an ever changing world.
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Cramer, Carolyn Maire. "The framing of climate change in three daily newspapers in the Western Cape Province of South Africa." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/2204.
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Thesis (MPhil (Journalism))--University of Stellenbosch, 2008.Scientists predict that the Western Cape region of South Africa is likely to be one of the regions most affected by climate change. Though the effects on the Cape Floral Kingdom are a huge concern in terms of biodiversity, the effects of climate change are predicted to be far broader than the natural environment. Agriculture, industry, the health sector, politics and the socio-economic sectors among others are all likely to be significantly impacted by climate change in the coming years. The underlying theoretical assumption of the study is that understanding how the climate question has been understood and framed is of vital importance for how the general public will be able to respond to lifestyle changes in aid of climate protection.This study examines the media coverage of climate change over the period of one year in the Western Cape media context, specifically the Cape Times, the Cape Argus and Die Burger. Using a quantitative framing analysis as the central methodology, the study focused on six core frames in analysing all articles relating to climate change. In addition, journalists at the respective newspapers were interviewed to complement the textual analysis. Finally, climate change scientists were interviewed in order to gain their perspectives of the reporting. The study found that the environmental frame was the dominant frame chosen. The political and scientific frames were the next two most prominent frames. It is argued that the dominance of these frames and the comparative lack of reports featuring the human impact frame is problematic as the environment, science and politics are all fairly abstract to the general public.
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Coetzee, Bernard W. T. "Implications of global change for important bird areas in South Africa." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/29591.
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The Important Bird Areas (IBAs) network of BirdLife International aims to identify sites that are essential for the long-term conservation of the world’s avifauna. A number of global change events have the potential to negatively affect, either directly or indirectly, most bird species, biodiversity in general and associated ecological processes in these areas identified as IBAs. To assist conservation decisions, I assessed a suite of ten landscape scale anthropogenic pressures to 115 Important Bird Areas (IBAs) in South Africa, both those currently placing pressures on IBAs and those that constitute likely future vulnerability to transformation. These threats are combined with irreplaceability, a frequently used measure of conservation importance, to identify the suite of IBAs which are high priority sites for conservation interventions: those with high irreplaceability and are highly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. A total of 22 (19%) of the South African IBAs are highly irreplaceable and are highly vulnerable to at least some of the pressures assessed. Afforestation, current and potential future patterns of alien plant invasions affect the largest number of highly irreplaceable IBAs. Only 9% of the area of highly irreplaceable IBAs is formally protected. A total of 81 IBAs (71%) are less than 5% degraded or transformed. This result, together with seven highly irreplaceable IBAs found outside of formally protected areas with lower human densities than expected by chance provides an ideal opportunity for conservation interventions. However, all the pressures assessed vary geographically, with no discernible systematic pattern that might assist conservation managers to design effective regional interventions. Furthermore, I used the newly emerging technique of ensemble forecasting to assess the impact of climate change on endemic birds in relation to the IBAs network. I used 50 endemic species, eight bioclimatic envelope models, four climate change models and two methods of transformation to presence or absence, which essentially creates 2400 projections for the years 2070-2100. The consensual projection shows that climate change impacts are very likely to be severe. The majority of species (62%) lose climatically suitable space and 99% of grid cells show species turnover. Five species lose at least 85% of climatically suitable space. The current locations of the South African Important Bird Areas network is very likely ineffective to conserve endemic birds under climate change along a “business a usual” emissions scenario. Many IBAs show species loss (41%; 47 IBAs) and species turnover (77%; 95 IBAs). However, an irreplaceability analysis identified mountainous regions in South Africa as irreplaceable refugia for endemic species, and some of these regions are existing IBAs. These IBAs should receive renewed conservation attention, as they have the potential to substantially contribute to a flexible conservation network under realistic scenarios of climate change. Considering all the global change threats assessed in this study, the Amersfoort-Bethal-Carolina District and the Grassland Biosphere Reserve (IBA codes: SA018; SA020) are the key IBAs in South Africa for conservation prioritisation.Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008.
Zoology and Entomology
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Sery, Roy Aharon. "Strategic response of private healthcare funders in South Africa to global climate change." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/26045.
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Climate change is an environmental issue that has actual or potential strategic impacts on many companies. The research problem emanates from the scientific work on climate change and the vast health effects that would pose as implications within the healthcare industry. The aim of the research was to explore the strategic response of private healthcare funders in South Africa to global climate change. By means of a case-study based research design, the stimuli for strategic response, risks and opportunities related to global climate change and strategy and an overall strategic organisational posture under the RDAP continuum scale framework had evolved. Evidence from the results and analysis brings light to the fact that global climate change as a strategic concern to private healthcare funders remains a point of scepticism. Although some of the organisations from the sample have considered climate change as a strategic concern, there are others that do not. The study showed that global climate change continues to remain an issue of complexity and uncertainty in the external business environment such that strategy formulation and implementation and acting proactively on the matter remains complicated. CopyrightDissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010.
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
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Barrable, Anne. "Climate change effects on land degradation and agriculture in the Swartland, South Africa." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/4825.
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Includes bibliographical references.The Swartland is a region of sparse natural vegetation, consisting of primarily dry-land crop farming. The area is particualarly sensitive to the changing Meditterranean-type climatic conditions and is characterised by undulating terrain and a history of land degradation and soil erosion. This thesis therefore considers how future climate change may impact on soil loss in such a climatically sensitive region of central economic significance for southern Africa.
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Erasmus, B. F. N. (Barend Frederik Nel). "Biodiversity and climate change : a South African perspective." Thesis, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/24488.
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The responsiveness of South African fauna to climate change events is poorly documented and not routinely incorporated into regional conservation planning exercises. The lack of detailed distribution data for appreciable numbers of taxa demands a modeling solution. We develop a climate envelope model to predict potential distribution range changes. The model can be used to interpolate the distributions of poorly sampled taxa as well as predict responses to a changing climate. It is predicted that species from the more arid western parts of South Africa will be subject to severe range contraction and range shifts whereas the species from the more mesic eastern parts will experience range contraction with limited range shift. Species that could act as climate change indicator taxa are identified based on their predicted extreme range change responses to climate change. Red-data and vulnerable species were more likely to display range change than less threatened species. Without mitigatory action, conservation areas are likely to lose species. The likelihood of successful range shifts will be affected by the nature of novel communities, habitat suitability and the degree of land transformation encountered. Given the extent of the predicted spatial responses, conservation planners can no longer afford to ignore future climate impacts on species distribution patterns. Disease risk profiles are also expected to change with climate; currently, susceptible forestry plantations exist in areas which may be invaded by an economically important pathogen. Resistant clones should be planted in these future high-risk areas. A decrease in precipitation is an important feature of a future climate. This decrease is expected to impact on the agricultural sector by reducing total employment as producers switch to a more extensive production pattern. The total decline in welfare, therefore, will fall disproportionately on the poor. Climate change presents a significant treat to the South African biodiversity estate, and our ability to manage this transition in the face of changing and competing land uses. Adaptation and mitigation options do exist but they are hampered by a lack of definitive analyses, and ultimately, political will to prioritise the threat of climate change.Thesis (PhD(Zoology))--University of Pretoria, 2006.
Zoology and Entomology
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Sithole, Ticharwa Patrick. "A legal and policy framework for addressing climate change in the Western Cape Province, South Africa." Thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10386/724.
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Thesis (M.Phil. (Environmental Law and Management)) -- University of Limpopo, 2009In recent years, a lot has been said about global warming and climate change. Governments and Institutions have been congregating more frequently all over the world. The subject of global warming and climate change is believed to be a ticking time bomb, which can have catastrophic effects on the existence of the human race and other living organisms. This led me to think and ponder about all our coastal towns in South Africa. What would happen if the melting of the glaciers continues and the sea levels rise by over two meters? This surely is a recipe for disaster and hence a look at the Western Cape Province was really necessary to find out on the province and the country‟s preparedness. Climate change has been scientifically proven to be occurring and is being aggravated by industrialisation1. With South Africa being the 19th Green House Gas (GHG) emitter in the world, the government should definitely take action by either mitigating or adapting to these effects.2 Rightly so, something is being done not only at national level, but at a regional and international level. A number of treaties, conventions and protocols to do with climate change and its related effects have been passed and ratified by most countries. The most notable international protocol is the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change‟s (UNFCCC) Kyoto protocol. At a regional level, New Partnership for Africa‟s Development (NEPAD) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), have come in support of environmental initiatives like the Atmospheric Pollution Information Network for Africa (APINA). The Western Cape Province, in line with most of these agreements and national strategies, have come up with their own polices in trying to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change.
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Aljareo, Abdulhakim. "How is climate change incorporated into environmental impact assessments (EIAs) in South Africa?" Thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/16829.
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A research report submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science by Coursework and Research Report. Johannesburg 2014.Climate change is an issue of global significance resulting in trans-boundary environmental and socio-economic impacts. South Africa is involved in the international efforts to address climate change, has accepted the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report and developed a National Climate Change Response Policy, listing the impacts of climate change on the sustainable development in South Africa. The main causes of climate change are Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), which have been emitted from different development activities over temporal and spatial scales. In order to reduce the emissions of GHGs and protect proposed development projects from climate change impacts, climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be incorporated into Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). This research aimed to describe climate change incorporation into the EIA legal regime and practice in South Africa, based on climate change impacts on sustainable development and the role of EIA in considering climate change. The methodology involved reviewing EIA regulations and related legislation, EIA case studies from Gauteng province conducted between 2010 and 2013, key informant interviews with Environmental Assessment Practitioners (EAPs), and discussion on the linkedin group of the International Association for Impact Assessment of South Africa (IAIAsa). The study concluded that climate change is not explicitly incorporated into the EIA regime, but it is implied in the EIA regulations and related legislation. Largely as a result of the lack of climate change incorporation in the EIA legal regime, climate change is not adequately considered in the EIA practice. In order to support the contribution of EIA to sustainable development in South Africa, It is recommended that climate change should be incorporated into EIA regulations in the next amendment of NEMA. This can be done through including listed activities that require climate change incorporation into the EIA based on type of an activity and/or specific receiving environments. It is also suggested that EIA guidelines for climate change consideration be developed. Further recommendations include supporting the role that Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environmental Management Framework (EMF) play, in conjunction with the EIA, in considering climate change; increasing the availability of accurate, local climate change data and modelling technology; developing staff capacity and awareness about climate change, and building EAP’s ability to incorporate climate change in the EIA through the support of government related authorities and associations such as IAIAsa and EAPSA. Key words: climate change, EIA, mitigation, adaptation, EIA legal regime, EIA practice.
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Matji, Oska. "The impact of climate change on agricultural crop distribution in South Africa." Thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/19288.
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A research report submitted to the Faculty of Science, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science by Coursework and Research Report, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, March 2015.Climate change is considered a dominant factor that controls species distribution at a large spatial scale. Changes in climate conditions are expected to have a significant impact on the distribution of maize in South Africa in the coming years. Determining the potential changes in maize distributions is important, as it is a staple crop for the majority of South Africans and contributes significantly to the country’s economy. The specific objectives of the study were to 1) determine potential distribution of maize under current and predicted climate scenarios using Maxent, 2) determine how the environmental factors change between current and predicted climatic habitat distributions and their influence on maize distributions in South Africa, and 3) statistically compare present and future distributions of maize to see how current and predicted climate habitats differed. Distribution models for high and low maize producing areas were built in Maxent using Bioclim variables from Worldclim. Predicted changes in distributions were then projected using predicted 2050 climate. Two emissions scenarios, RCP2.6 (low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission), from HadGEM2ES model were used to predict the climate suitability of maize. Model evaluations showed that models had adequate predictability for maize under different climate scenarios (AUC values ≥ 0.7). Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16), annual precipitation (Bio12), and maximum temperature of warmest month (Bio5) variables contributed the most to model predictions. The models showed a decrease in suitable areas for maize growth in the Highveld region. Present range area for maize as climate changes from low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios showed a contraction. Predictive models suggest that the most affected areas under future scenarios is the western part of the Highveld region, which is currently characterized by relatively low mean annual precipitation. However, there was an increase in suitability in the Eastern Cape province. Statistical comparisons of current and predicted climatic niches for maize showed that there was little difference, this indicates that climate suitability of maize will not change significantly due to climate change, but that the geographic ranges where these climatic habitats are found will change dramatically. The capacity to develop strategies that will enable maize to adapt to climate change will be vital for South Africa’s agro-ecosystem and food security. The results from this study highlight the possible imposition of climate change on maize distribution and could be useful for future work to minimize the potential negative impacts of climate change on food production. Keywords: Climate change, food security, maize, Maxent, niche quantification, South Africa.
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Ngcobo, Bongiwe Princess. "South African foreign policy decision making on climate change." Thesis, 2017. https://hdl.handle.net/10539/23806.
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Thesis (M.M. (Public and Development Management))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits School of Governance, 2017This thesis was greatly motivated by the desire to understand and explain the foreign policy decision making process of the South African government on climate change. The study deploys Allison and Zelikow’s triple model from their famous analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis as lenses in unmasking the complexities associated with processes of foreign policy decision making, on climate decisions in South Africa. In spite of the multi-sectoral interventions of government, business, NGO’s, civil society and academics in mitigating the impact of climate change, the decision making process excluded participation of other stakeholders at the political level. This was evident in 2009 at Copenhagen when the president announced that South Africa had committed itself to reduce carbon emissions by 34% in 2020 and 42% in 2025. A possible explanation why the multi-stakeholders participation was excluded in setting these numerical targets in the climate change decision making process, lies with the failure of the incumbent government to uphold the democratic principles of inclusive participation. Drawing from the work of Allison and Zelikow (1999), that state that it is not adequate to explain government’s events on decision making through the Rational Actor Model only, it is more useful to also consider the organisational processes and government politics from which the decision emerged. In this regard, interviews and documentary analysis were deployed within a qualitative case study design to gain an indepth understanding of South African foreign policy decision making processes on climate change targets. Overwhelmingly, the study established that there was a gross exclusion of multi-stakeholders participation in foreign policy decision making on setting the climate targets, ignoring the effects of the outcome of those decisions on socio-economic issues. This study therefore concluded that, although efforts are being put into place to ensure maximum participation by both government and other actors, there is still a need for South African government to allow participation of external actors. Premised in the forgoing conclusion, it is recommended that South African government foreign policy decisions on climate change can work better if entrenched on other multi-stakeholders’ decisions and following inclusive participation at the political level.
GR2018
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Reddy, Melissa. "Tourism and climate change risks : opportunities and constraints in South Africa." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/11392.
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M.Sc., Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, 2011Global climate change, often referred to as „global warming‟ is possibly one of the most serious environmental challenges facing the world this century (DEAT, 2004; IPCC, 2007). There have been several studies (e.g. Viner and Agnew, 1999; Higham and Hall, 2005; IPCC, 2007; Midgley et al., 2008) on the potential impacts of climate change on the tourism sector and the likely effects are shown to be extremely wide ranging and may have far-reaching consequences for the tourism sector in many regions and areas of the world. From a review of the literature it was evident that there was limited literature on the response to climate change by the tourism industry in terms of mitigation, adaptation and long- term strategic planning to manage future anticipated climate change impacts. Given this background, this research explores the tourism industry with regard to game and nature reserves in South Africa and probes the perceptions of climate change amongst park managers and tourism operators to understand their awareness regarding the projected impacts of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation strategies that were in place or being developed in the management of the game and nature reserves are identified and examined. Challenges that were experienced by the tourism managers/operators in promoting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in the nature based tourism sector in South Africa are highlighted and discussed and recommendations are provided. Purposeful sampling was employed in the research and the stakeholders were identified according to their important roles in the South African Tourism Industry with regard to game and nature reserve management. These included the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, South African National Parks (SANParks), South African National Botanical Institute (SANBI) and the Provincial Park Managers which comprises the Eastern Cape Parks, Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (GDARD), Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, Limpopo Tourism and Parks Board, Mpumalanga Parks Board, North West Parks and Tourism Board and Cape Nature. The research data was collected using open-ended questionnaires and interviews with the stakeholders. Results of this research showed that there was a basic understanding of climate change and its associated impacts on tourism consistent with what is being established in the scientific literature. Despite this awareness among relevant stakeholders, there was however not much formal long-term strategic planning or mitigation and adaptation plans in place to manage or „manage‟ the suggested projected impacts of climate change on the tourism industry. The research results also highlighted many challenges experienced by the nature- based tourism sector.