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1
Mason, S. J. "Climatic change over the Lowveld of South Africa." Climatic Change 32, no. 1 (January 1996): 35–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00141277.
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Klein, Richard G. "Carnivore Size and Quaternary Climatic Change in Southern Africa." Quaternary Research 26, no. 1 (July 1986): 153–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(86)90089-x.
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The relationship between carnassial length and latitude south is analyzed for 17 African carnivore species to determine if individuals tend to be larger in cooler climates, as predicted by Bergmann's Rule. With modern data in support, middle and late Quaternary temperatures might then be inferred from mean carnassial length in fossil samples, such as those from Equus Cave, Elandsfontein, Sea Harvest. Duinefontein, and Swartklip in the Cape Province of South Africa. One problematic aspect of the study is the use of carnassial length and latitude as necessary but imperfect substitutes for body size and temperature, respectively. For some species, another difficulty is the relatively small number of available modern specimens, combined with their uneven latitudinal spread. Still, in 14 of the species, carnassial length does tend to increase with latitude south, while mean carnassial length in the same species tends to be greater in those fossil samples which accumulated under relatively cool conditions, as inferred from sedimentologic, palynological, or geochemical data. Given larger modern samples from a wide variety of latitudes, refinement of the mathematical relationship between carnassial length and latitude in various species may even permit quantitative estimates of past temperatures in southern Africa.
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Hessler, I., L. Dupont, D. Handiani, A. Paul, U. Merkel, and G. Wefer. "Masked millennial-scale climate variations in South West Africa during the last glaciation." Climate of the Past 8, no. 2 (April 24, 2012): 841–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-841-2012.
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Abstract. To address the connection between tropical African vegetation development and high-latitude climate change we present a high-resolution pollen record from ODP Site 1078 (off Angola) covering the period 50–10 ka BP. Although several tropical African vegetation and climate reconstructions indicate an impact of Heinrich Stadials (HSs) in Southern Hemisphere Africa, our vegetation record shows no response. Model simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity including a dynamical vegetation component provide one possible explanation. Because both precipitation and evaporation increased during HSs and their effects nearly cancelled each other, there was a negligible change in moisture supply. Consequently, the resulting climatic response to HSs might have been too weak to noticeably affect the vegetation composition in the study area. Our results also show that the response to HSs in southern tropical Africa neither equals nor mirrors the response to abrupt climate change in northern Africa.
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Kanle Satishchandra, Nitin, and Sjirk Geerts. "Modeling the Distribution of the Invasive Alien Cycad Aulacaspis Scale in Africa Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios." Journal of Economic Entomology 113, no. 5 (July 29, 2020): 2276–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jee/toaa156.
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Abstract The cycad aulacaspis scale, Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Diaspididae), is native to Southeast Asia but an invasive pest of the gymnosperm order Cycadales in many parts of the world. Aulacaspis yasumatsui was recently reported on the cycad genus Encephalartos in South Africa and is currently categorized as a ‘prohibited terrestrial invertebrate’ in the invasive species legislation, National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act, 2004 (NEM:BA). Encephalartos is endemic to Africa, and 11 species are listed as critically endangered and four species as endangered. Seeing the limited distribution of A. yasumatsui in South Africa and only one unconfirmed record from the Ivory Coast, understanding the potential distribution range is essential for control and management. Here we model the potential distribution of A. yasumatsui under current and future climate scenarios in Africa, with a focus on South Africa. Future climatic scenarios were simulated using a bio-climatic software, CLIMEX. The model indicates that, under the current climatic scenario, all 17 African countries possessing Encephalartos are susceptible to A. yasumatsui establishment. However, under climatic change, the suitability decreases for large parts of Africa. In South Africa, 93% of the winter rainfall areas, and 90% of the temperate, summer rainfall areas are suitable for A. yasumatsui establishment. In this study, we highlight the urgent need for regulation, management, and research on A. yasumatsui in African countries with native cycads.
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Guo, Danni, Gina Zietsman, and Philip A. R. Hockey. "Climate Change Impacts on the Common Swift in South Africa." International Journal of Environmental Science and Development 7, no. 4 (2016): 306–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.7763/ijesd.2016.v7.789.
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Schulze, R. E. "Impacts of global climate change in a hydrologically vulnerable region: challenges to South African hydrologists." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 21, no. 1 (March 1997): 113–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030913339702100107.
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South Africa is already hydrologically vulnerable and this is likely to be exacerbated by both nonpermanent ENSO-related as well as more permanently greenhouse-gas forced climate changes. Climate change effects are explained by way of the hydrological equation. This serves as a backdrop to a brief review, in a hydrological context, of projected perturbations to temperature, rainfall and potential evaporation, over southern Africa. Methodologies for simulating hydro logical responses to climate change are assessed. These include more direct GCM-derived output, with some emphasis on recent advances in climatic downscaling, and the application of appro priate hydrological models for use in impact studies. Scale problems of importance to hydrologists are highlighted. Directions to which climate change-related hydrological research efforts should be expended in South Africa are summarized, before two case study simulations, one a general sensitivity study of hydrological responses to changes in rainfall over southern Africa, the other a more specific hydrological response study to the El Niño of the 1982-83 season, are presented. The article concludes with a discussion on whether or not water resources practitioners in South Africa should respond to climate change.
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Woillez, M. N., G. Levavasseur, A. L. Daniau, M. Kageyama, D. H. Urrego, and M. F. Sánchez-Goñi. "Impact of precession on the climate, vegetation and fire activity in southern Africa during MIS4." Climate of the Past Discussions 9, no. 5 (September 17, 2013): 5391–438. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-5391-2013.
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Abstract. The relationships between climate, vegetation and fires are a major subject of investigation in the context of climate change. In southern Africa, fire is known to play a crucial role in the existence of grasslands and Mediterranean-like biomes. Microcharcoal-based reconstructions of past fire activity in that region have shown a tight correlation between grass-fueled fires and the precessional cycle, with maximum fire activity during maxima of the climatic precession index. These changes have been interpreted as the result of changes in fuel load in response to precipitation changes in eastern southern Africa. Here we use the general circulation model IPSL_CM5A and the dynamical vegetation model LPJ-LMfire to investigate the response of climate, vegetation and fire activity to precession changes in southern Africa during Marine Isotopic Stage 4. We perform two climatic simulations, for a maximum and minimum of the precession index, and use a statistical downscaling method to increase the spatial resolution of the IPSL_CM5A outputs over southern Africa and perform high-resolution simulations of the vegetation and fire activity. Our results show an anti-correlation between the North and South African monsoons in response to precession changes. A decrease of the precession climatic index leads to a precipitation decrease in the summer rainfall area of southern Africa. The drying of climate leads to a decrease of vegetation cover and fire activity. Our results are in qualitative agreement with data and confirm that fire activity in southern Africa is strongly dependent on the vegetation type.
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Odeku, Kola, and Edson Meyer. "Climate Change Surge: Implementing Stringent Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies in South Africa." Journal of African Law 54, no. 2 (September 20, 2010): 159–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021855310000033.
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AbstractThis article examines how the South African government, realizing the country's vulnerability to climate change, deemed it necessary to strengthen adaptation and mitigation measures and put in place legal and institutional frameworks to ensure implementation and compliance. Government must take responsibility for industry's inaction by implementing policies on climate change and, more importantly, through a visible change in government policy to hold industry accountable. The stringent policies and strategies being put in place are reducing vulnerability and also enhancing a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, climatic, resource and economic perturbations. The article further reviews state of the art methods and tools available to strengthen mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures in the areas of the existing frameworks regarding climate change. It also considers various measures by Eskom in particular, and strategies embarked upon by South Africa's national and local governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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Jones, M. Q. W., P. D. Tyson, and G. R. J. Cooper. "Modelling climatic change in South Africa from perturbed borehole temperature profiles." Quaternary International 57-58 (June 1999): 185–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1040-6182(98)00059-7.
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Vogel, Coleen H. "A documentary-derived climatic chronology for South Africa, 1820?1900." Climatic Change 14, no. 3 (June 1989): 291–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00134967.
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Kom, Zongho, Nthaduleni S. Nethengwe, Sylvester Mpandeli, and Hector Chikoore. "Climate Change Grounded on Empirical Evidence as Compared with the Perceptions of Smallholder Farmers in Vhembe District, South Africa." Journal of Asian and African Studies 55, no. 5 (December 23, 2019): 683–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0021909619891757.
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In South Africa, the smallholding-farming system is a dominant economic activity in rural communities. This study examines smallholder-farmers’ perceptions in regards to climate changes, in comparison with evidence from meteorological data from 1980–2015, across Vhembe District; data from a questionnaire and recorded meteorological were used. The results reveal that, farmers’ perceptions of climatic conditions are consistent with meteorological details on climatic change. In other words, the study, showed that, farmers’ perceptions using climate indicators, mirror meteorological data. It was concluded that it is imperative for farmers to understand issues such as, temperature and rainfall patterns in order to identify adaptive strategies to the negative impacts of climate.
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Chikosi, Enerst Shingai, Shingirai Stanley Mugambiwa, Happy Mathew Tirivangasi, and Sejabaledi Agnes Rankoana. "Climate change and variability perceptions in Ga-Dikgale community in Limpopo Province, South Africa." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 11, no. 3 (May 20, 2019): 392–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-01-2018-0004.
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Purpose Perceptions of climate change and its threats to rural communities are among major challenges faced by scientists around the world. A few studies prove that these communities are aware of change in climatic conditions and their impacts on people’s livelihoods. Climate change is usually perceived as increasing warming days, erratic rainfall patterns, ecological variability, biological change and their adverse effects on human beings. This study aims to assess Ga-Dikgale community’s perceptions on climate change and variability. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative research method was adopted and community members of age 60 and above in GaDikgale community were purposively selected as participants in the study. Data were collected through in-depth interviews, and thematic content analysis was used to analyse data. Findings The study found that the community perceives climate change and climate variability based on changes in temperature patterns, erratic rainfall patterns, seasonal change, depletion of biodiversity, decline in subsistence crop production, change in water quality and cessation of cultural activities. Originality/value The study concludes that community’s perceptions of climate change are largely centred on variations in temperature and rainfall patterns. It has been established that knowledge of climate change in rural communities is of paramount importance in as far as adaptation to climate hazards is concerned.
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Hessler, I., L. Dupont, D. Handiani, A. Paul, U. Merkel, and G. Wefer. "Masked millennial-scale climate variations in South West Africa during the last glaciation." Climate of the Past Discussions 7, no. 5 (October 20, 2011): 3511–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-7-3511-2011.
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Abstract. Large and abrupt shifts between extreme climatic conditions characterise the last glacial and deglacial period and are thought to be transmitted by the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Millennial-scale climatic shifts associated with North Atlantic Heinrich Stadials (HSs) are thought to be closely related to a reduction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which lead to the accumulation of heat in the South Atlantic and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Due to the linkage between the oceans and the atmosphere it is assumed that HSs also influence the vegetation composition in the African tropics. To address the connection between tropical African vegetation development and high-latitude climate change we present a high-resolution marine pollen record from ODP Site 1078 (off Angola) covering the period 50–10 ka BP. Although several tropical African vegetation and climate reconstructions indicate an impact of HSs on the African subcontinent, our vegetation record shows no response. Model simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) including a dynamical vegetation component lead to the hypothesis that the vegetation response during HSs might have been muted by mechanisms that partly cancel each other.
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Arnell, N. W. "Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 7, no. 5 (October 31, 2003): 619–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-7-619-2003.
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Abstract. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5&#176 using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model), and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and mild climates, higher temperatures mean that peak streamflow moves from spring to winter as less winter precipitation falls as snow. The spatial pattern of changes in the 10-year return period maximum monthly runoff follows changes in annual runoff. Keywords: SRES emissions scenarios, climate change impacts on runoff, multi-decadal variability, macro-scale hydrological model, drought frequency, flood frequency
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Rowlands, Ian H. "South Africa and Global Climate Change." Journal of Modern African Studies 34, no. 1 (March 1996): 163–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022278x00055257.
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Globalclimate change is now firmly on the international agenda. Although the heady days of the 1992 Earth Summit have been replaced by an atmosphere of greater caution, events in 1995 have nevertheless revealed that climate change is set to be one of the key international issues during the coming decades. Indeed, it is inevitable that global climate change – as both a physical phenomenon and a social institution – will have a tremendous impact on every nation's future.
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Daniel, Gimo M., Catherine L. Sole, Clarke H. Scholtz, and Adrian L. V. Davis. "Historical diversification and biogeography of the endemic southern African dung beetle genus, Epirinus (Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae)." Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 133, no. 3 (April 22, 2021): 751–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blab051.
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Abstract The role of the geological uplift and climatic changes during the late Cenozoic on the species diversification of southern African dung beetles is not fully understood. Therefore, we use a divergence-time-estimated phylogeny, macroevolutionary analyses and ecological niche modelling under different climatic scenarios to investigate diversification of the endemic southern African genus, Epirinus. We predict the ancestral range and vegetation type occupied by Epirinus and how late Cenozoic climatic fluctuations and resulting vegetation changes affected speciation and extinction of Epirinus species. Our results suggest that the genus originated in forest with radiation into three geographical centres: (a) north-east escarpment forest and highland grassland; (b) south-east forest; and (c) south-west lowlands to north-east uplands in open vegetation. Reduced speciation rates in the mid-Miocene and increased extinction rates during the drier and cooler Plio-Pleistocene coincide with the replacement of forest by grassland or savanna in southern Africa. The drier climate in southern Africa may have driven extensive contraction of shaded vegetation, forcing an adaptation of forest inhabitants to upland grassland environments, or driving Epirinus species to extinction. Our study supports hypothesis of climatically driven diversification of Epirinus whereas ecological niche modelling across different geological periods suggest that the south-east and, to a lesser extent, the west coast of South Africa as stable areas.
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Hahn, Annette, Enno Schefuß, Sergio Andò, Hayley C. Cawthra, Peter Frenzel, Martin Kugel, Stephanie Meschner, Gesine Mollenhauer, and Matthias Zabel. "Southern Hemisphere anticyclonic circulation drives oceanic and climatic conditions in late Holocene southernmost Africa." Climate of the Past 13, no. 6 (June 9, 2017): 649–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-649-2017.
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Abstract. Due to the high sensitivity of southern Africa to climate change, a reliable understanding of its hydrological system is crucial. Recent studies of the regional climatic system have revealed a highly complex interplay of forcing factors on precipitation regimes. This includes the influence of the tropical easterlies, the strength of the southern hemispheric westerlies as well as sea surface temperatures along the coast of the subcontinent. However, very few marine records have been available in order to study the coupling of marine and atmospheric circulation systems. Here we present results from a marine sediment core, recovered in shallow waters off the Gouritz River mouth on the south coast of South Africa. Core GeoB18308-1 allows a closer view of the last ∼ 4 kyr. Climate sensitive organic proxies, like the distribution and isotopic composition of plant-wax lipids as well as indicators for sea surface temperatures and soil input, give information on oceanographic and hydrologic changes during the recorded time period. Moreover, the micropaleontology, mineralogical and elemental composition of the sediments reflect the variability of the terrigenous input to the core site. The combination of down-core sediment signatures and a catchment-wide provenance study indicate that the Little Ice Age ( ∼ 300–650 cal yr BP) was characterized by climatic conditions favorable to torrential flood events. The Medieval Climate Anomaly ( ∼ 950–650 cal yr BP) is expressed by lower sea surface temperatures in the Mossel Bay area and humid conditions in the Gouritz River catchment. These new results suggest that the coincidence of humid conditions and cooler sea surface temperatures along the south coast of South Africa resulted from a strengthened and more southerly anticyclonic circulation. Most probably, the transport of moisture from the Indian Ocean by strong subtropical easterlies was coupled with Agulhas Bank upwelling pulses, which were initiated by an increase in Agulhas Current strength.
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Hahn, Annette, Enno Schefuß, Jeroen Groeneveld, Charlotte Miller, and Matthias Zabel. "Glacial to interglacial climate variability in the southeastern African subtropics (25–20° S)." Climate of the Past 17, no. 1 (January 29, 2021): 345–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-345-2021.
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Abstract. We present a continuous and well-resolved record of climatic variability for the past 100 000 years from a marine sediment core taken in Delagoa Bight, off southeastern Africa. In addition to providing a sea surface temperature reconstruction for the past ca. 100 000 years, this record also allows a high-resolution continental climatic reconstruction. Climate sensitive organic proxies, like the distribution and isotopic composition of plant-wax lipids as well as elemental indicators of fluvial input and weathering type provide information on climatic changes in the adjacent catchment areas (Incomati, Matola and Lusutfu rivers). At the transition between glacials and interglacials, shifts in vegetation correlate with changes in sea surface temperature in the Agulhas Current. The local hydrology, however, does not follow these orbitally paced shifts. Instead, precipitation patterns follow millennial-scale variations with different forcing mechanisms in glacial vs. interglacial climatic states. During glacials, southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone facilitates a transmission of northern hemispheric signals (e.g., Heinrich events) to the southern hemispheric subtropics. Furthermore, the southern hemispheric westerlies become a more direct source of precipitation as they shift northward over the study site, especially during Antarctic cold phases. During interglacials, the observed short-term hydrological variability is also a function of Antarctic climate variability; however, it is driven by the indirect influence of the southern hemispheric westerlies and the associated South African high-pressure cell blocking the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone related precipitation. As a consequence of the interplay of these effects, small-scale climatic zones exist. We propose a conceptual model describing latitudinal shifts of these zones along the southeastern African coast as tropical and temperate climate systems shift over glacial and interglacial cycles. The proposed model explains some of the apparent contradictions between several paleoclimate records in the region.
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Leck, Hayley, and David Simon. "Local Authority Responses to Climate Change in South Africa: The Challenges of Transboundary Governance." Sustainability 10, no. 7 (July 19, 2018): 2542. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10072542.
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Recent progress and innovation are testament to the willingness of municipal authorities to address climate change. However, urban regions worldwide exhibit an immense diversity of conditions, capabilities and responses to the challenges of changing climatic conditions. While separated by politico-administrative borders, adjacent municipalities within such regions are connected through biophysical, politico-economic, and social systems likely to be reconfigured under changing climatic/environmental conditions. Yet, to date, politico-administrative borders have largely determined the parameters of local government climate change adaptation strategies, with insufficient attention to the role of inter-municipal collaboration, especially between neighbouring rural, peri-urban and urban municipalities, for co-ordinating such policies and interventions. Within a multi-level governance framework, this paper considers the recent evolution of climate agendas in the eThekwini (formerly Durban City Council) metropolitan municipality and the adjacent Ugu (predominantly rural) district municipality on the south coast of KwaZulu-Natal province (KZN), South Africa, focusing particularly on cross-border collaboration within the greater city region. The challenges were investigated by means of 53 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with municipal, regional and local authority association staff in November 2009, March 2012, and August 2017. Our core argument is that weak inter-municipal collaboration, particularly between urban, peri-urban and rural areas within metropolitan and functional city regions, has been a significant impediment to realizing transformative adaptation within such regions. The experiences of these two contiguous yet contrasting municipalities represent a microcosm of the dramatic discontinuities and inequalities on all variables within adjacent urban metropolitan and rural contexts in South Africa and beyond. Despite promising recent signs, the challenges of inter-municipal collaborative action are therefore formidable.
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Lavery, Charne. "Antarctica and Africa: Narrating alternate futures." Polar Record 55, no. 5 (September 2019): 347–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0032247419000743.
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AbstractAfrica has been marginalised in the history of Antarctica, a politics of exclusion (with the exception of Apartheid South Africa) reflected unsurprisingly by a dearth of imaginative, cultural and literary engagement. But, in addition to paleontological and geophysical links, Antarctica has increasing interrelationship with Africa’s climactic future. Africa is widely predicted to be the continent worst affected by climate change, and Antarctica and its surrounding Southern Ocean are uniquely implicated as crucial mediators for changing global climate and currents, rainfall patterns, and sea level rise. This paper proposes that there are in fact several ways of imagining the far South from Africa in literary and cultural terms. One is to read against the grain for southern-directed perspectives in existing African literature and the arts, from southern coastlines looking south; another is to reexamine both familiar and new, speculative narratives of African weather – drought, flood and change – for their Antarctic entanglements. In the context of ongoing work on postcolonial Antarctica and calls to decolonise Antarctic studies – such readings can begin to bridge the Antarctica–Africa divide.
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Klein, Richard G., and Kathryn Cruz-Uribe. "Size Variation in the Rock Hyrax (Procavia capensis) and Late Quaternary Climatic Change in South Africa." Quaternary Research 46, no. 2 (September 1996): 193–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/qres.1996.0059.
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The average adult size of the rock hyrax varies greatly across South Africa. Regression analysis suggests that mean hyrax size is more closely linked to precipitation than to temperature, probably because precipitation has a much greater impact on preferred hyrax food plants. The relationship between mean size and precipitation is curvilinear, such that size increases up to about 700 mm/annum and declines thereafter. This parallels a tendency for less palatable grasses to replace more palatable ones where rainfall exceeds 700 mm/annum. In conjunction with other indicators of past climate, hyrax size variation can be used to reconstruct precipitation history near deeply stratified South African late Quaternary sites, including Elands Bay Cave, Die Kelders Cave 1, and Nelson Bay Cave.
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Nelson, Michael Byron. "Africa’s Regional Powers and Climate Change Negotiations." Global Environmental Politics 16, no. 2 (May 2016): 110–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00348.
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Two pillars underpin Africa’s approach to climate change negotiations: One is the “African Common Position,” and the other is the development of a negotiating coalition for presenting that position. This report explores the roles that Africa’s regional powers—Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa—play in supporting this African approach. These regional powers do not share the same interests as the rest of the continent. Not only do they differ based on energy production (Nigeria) and consumption (South Africa), but also in terms of their general vulnerabilities and readiness to face climate change. Even where they share interests, they often view these negotiation processes as serving goals other than solving the problems of climate change. Despite such issues, Africa still needs its regional powers to play a role in ongoing global negotiations, and the world will likely continue to focus on at least some of them as continental representatives.
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Braun, Yvonne A. "Environmental change, risk and vulnerability: poverty, food insecurity and HIV/AIDS amid infrastructural development and climate change in Southern Africa." Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society 13, no. 2 (July 2020): 267–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsaa008.
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Abstract The Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP) is a transnational multi-dam infrastructural development project to sell water from Lesotho to South Africa. Based on field and secondary research in Lesotho, I demonstrate how infrastructural projects such as the LHWP shape a geography of risk and become a medium through which riskscapes are created or exacerbated in both South Africa and Lesotho. Project-induced changes interacted with and intensified co-occurring vulnerabilities for communities directly and indirectly affected by the LHWP over time. I focus specifically on risks to livelihood, food insecurity and health, within the context of increased climatic shocks in the region.
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Ndlovu, Mendy, Alistair D. Clulow, Michael J. Savage, Luxon Nhamo, James Magidi, and Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi. "An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa." Atmosphere 12, no. 4 (March 26, 2021): 427. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12040427.
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Rainfall and air temperature variability pose the greatest risk to environmental change. Past trends in rainfall and air temperature facilitate projecting future climate changes for informed policy responses. We used a combination of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and observed data from 1968 to 2017 to assess changes in rainfall, moisture stress, and air temperature variability over time on bioclimatic regions of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province, South Africa. Indicators used included consecutive dry days (CDDs), consecutive wet days (CWDs), very heavy rainfall days (R20), monthly maximum daily maximum air temperature (TXx), monthly minimum daily minimum air temperature (TNn), the total number of rainfall days, and monthly air temperature averages. Trends in rainfall and moisture stress are notable in different bioclimatic regions across the province. However, these trends are diverse, in general, and spatially different across and within the bioclimatic regions. Further, related rainfall indicators do not respond in the same way as would be expected. Air temperature trends were consistent with global trends and land–air temperature anomalies. Although daytime air temperatures showed a positive trend, extreme air temperature events and increases are predominant in inland regions. Night-time air temperatures showed an upward trend in most stations across KZN. Local weather-and-climate related characteristics are evolving due to climatic variability and change. The study shows that changes in climatic activities are detectable at a local level from existing historical weather data; therefore, adaptation strategies should be contextualised to respond to local and area-specific challenges.
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Phophi, Mutondwa Masindi, Paramu Mafongoya, and Shenelle Lottering. "Perceptions of Climate Change and Drivers of Insect Pest Outbreaks in Vegetable Crops in Limpopo Province of South Africa." Climate 8, no. 2 (February 6, 2020): 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli8020027.
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Vegetable production is a source of income for smallholder farmers in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Vegetable production is constrained by the negative impacts of climate change and pests. This study assessed farmers’ awareness of climate change, farmers’ knowledge of insect pests and factors that influence insect pests’ prevalence. The data were collected using quantitative and qualitative methods. The data were subjected to descriptive and bivariate analysis. About 84.5% of smallholder farmers were aware of climate change. Late rainfall (24.4%), long dry spells (15%) and increased drought frequency (19.4%) were highlighted as dominant indicators of climate change by farmers. Aphids (22.2%), Bagrada hilaris (12.5%) and Spodoptera frugiperda (10.2%) were the most prevalent insect pests within the Vhembe District. Warmer winters, dry spells and high temperatures were perceived by farmers to influence insect pests’ prevalence within the district. It can be concluded that farmers are aware of climate change and climatic factors influencing pest prevalence within the district. Pest risk maps are needed to improve the preparedness of the government and farmers in controlling insect pests under changing climates.
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PANDY, Wayde R., and Christian M. ROGERSON. "CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND TOURISM IN SOUTH AFRICA: PROJECTIONS AND POLICY." GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites 35, no. 2 (June 30, 2021): 445–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.30892/gtg.35224-671.
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The challenge of climate change and tourism is an evolving international knowledge domain. South Africa is one of the most vulnerable countries with respect to projected climate change. For the national tourism economy climate change is a significant topic of concern. The objectives in this article are to present climate change projections and potential impacts for South Africa’s tourism economy and to critically analyse the policy landscape concerning national government’s response to climate change as a whole and more specifically in relation to the tourism sector. It is shown key tourism assets of South Africa are at risk from the advance of climate change. The analysis discloses that the South African government has supported international efforts and obligations to address the challenge of climate change, commitments which have influenced policy development regarding tourism. Nevertheless, policy development towards climate change and tourism has not progressed greatly over the past decade. Arguably, this is an outcome of the overwhelming concentration in recent government tourism policy in South Africa towards issues of inclusivity and transformation.
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Lovett, Jon C., Phoebe Barnard, and Guy F. Midgley. "National Climate Change Conference in South Africa." African Journal of Ecology 43, no. 4 (December 2005): 279–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2028.2005.00608.x.
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Mason, S. J., and M. R. Jury. "Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: a reflection on underlying processes." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 21, no. 1 (March 1997): 23–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030913339702100103.
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Quasi-periodicities in annual rainfall totals over southern Africa have been identified; in particular, an approximately 18-year cycle may be related to interdecadal variability in sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and central Indian Oceans. A 10-year cycle along the south coast is related to variability in standing wave 3. Atmospheric anomalies associated with wet and dry years can be related to changes in the frequency, intensity and persistence of important rainfall-producing weather systems and highlight the significance of the strength of the continental heat low and the preferred locations and amplitudes of the westerly troughs. El Niño Southern Oscillation events and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Indian and South Atlantic Oceans can influence both the tropical and the temperate atmospheric circulation and moisture fluxes over the subcontinent and thus are significant influences on rainfall variability. Evidence for long-term climatic change is not as definitive as in the Sahel, although there are indications of desiccation in some areas since the late-1970s. Increases in temperatures are of approximately the same magnitude as the hemispheric trends and may be attributable to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
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Abiodun, Gbenga J., Babatope O. Adebiyi, Rita O. Abiodun, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Kelechi E. Oladimeji, Abiodun M. Adeola, Olusola S. Makinde, et al. "Investigating the Resurgence of Malaria Prevalence in South Africa Between 2015 and 2018: A Scoping Review." Open Public Health Journal 13, no. 1 (April 24, 2020): 119–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874944502013010119.
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Background: Malaria remains a serious concern in most African countries, causing nearly one million deaths globally every year. This review aims to examine the extent and nature of the resurgence of malaria transmission in South Africa. Methods: Using the Arksey and O'Malley framework, this scoping review includes articles published between the years 2015 and 2018 on the resurgence of malaria occurrence in South Africa. Articles were searched between October 2018 to January 2019 using the following electronic databases: CINAHL, Pubmed, Science Direct and SCOPUS. Grey literature from Google Scholar was also hand searched. Key search terms and subject headings such as climate variables, climate changes, climatic factors, malaria resurgence, malaria reoccurrence and malaria increase over epidemic regions in South Africa were used to identify relevant articles. Three independent reviewers performed the selection and characterization of articles, and the data collected were synthesized qualitatively. Results: A total number of 534 studies were identified. Among these, 24 studies met the inclusion criteria. The results were grouped by factors (four main themes) that influenced the malaria resurgence: Climatic, Epidemiological, Socio-economic, and Environmental factors. Climatic factors were found to be the major factor responsible for the resurgence of malaria, as more than 55% of the selected articles were climate-focused. This was followed by epidemiological, socio-economic and environmental factors, in that order. Grey literature from Google Scholar yielded no results. Conclusion: This study shows that malaria transmission in South Africa is more associated with climate. Climate-based malaria models could be used as early warning systems for malaria over the epidemic regions in South Africa. Since epidemiological factors also play significant roles in malaria transmission, regular and unrelaxed use of Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) should be encouraged in these regions. Individuals should also be educated on the importance and the usefulness of these deliveries. While some studies have indicated that the vectors have developed resistance to insecticides, continuous research on developing new insecticides that could alter the resistance are encouraged. Furthermore, all efforts to eradicate malaria in South Africa must also target malaria-endemic neighbouring countries.
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Faith, J. Tyler, and Anna K. Behrensmeyer. "Climate change and faunal turnover: testing the mechanics of the turnover-pulse hypothesis with South African fossil data." Paleobiology 39, no. 4 (2013): 609–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1666/12043.
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The turnover-pulse hypothesis (TPH) makes explicit predictions concerning the potential responses of species to climate change, which is considered to be a major cause of faunal turnover (extinction, speciation, and migration). Previous studies have tested the TPH primarily by examining temporal correlations between turnover pulses and climatic events. It is rarely possible to dissect such correlations and observe turnover as it is occurring or to predict how different lineages will respond to climate change. Thus, whether climate change drives faunal turnover in the manner predicted by the TPH remains unclear. In this study, we test the underlying mechanics of the TPH using well-dated Quaternary ungulate records from southern Africa's Cape Floristic Region (CFR). Changes in sea level, vegetation, and topographic barriers across glacial-interglacial transitions in southern Africa caused shifts in habitat size and configuration, allowing us to generate specific predictions concerning the responses of ungulates characterized by different feeding habits and habitat preferences. Examples from the CFR show how climatically forced vegetation change and allopatry can drive turnover resulting from extinction and migration. Evidence for speciation is lacking, suggesting either that climate change does not cause speciation in these circumstances or that the evolutionary outcome of turnover is contingent on the nature and rate of climate change. Migrations and extinctions are observed in the CFR fossil record over geologically short time intervals, on the order of Milankovitch-scale climate oscillations. We propose that such climate oscillations could drive a steady and moderate level of faunal turnover over 104-year time scales, which would not be resolved in paleontological records spanning 105years and longer. A turnover pulse, which is a marked increase in turnover relative to previous and subsequent time periods, requires additional, temporally constrained climatic forcing or other processes that could accelerate evolutionary change, perhaps mediated through biotic interactions.
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Adisa, Omolola, Joel Botai, Abubeker Hassen, Daniel Darkey, Abiodun Adeola, Eyob Tesfamariam, Christina Botai, and Abidemi Adisa. "Variability of Satellite Derived Phenological Parameters across Maize Producing Areas of South Africa." Sustainability 10, no. 9 (August 27, 2018): 3033. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10093033.
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Changes in phenology can be used as a proxy to elucidate the short and long term trends in climate change and variability. Such phenological changes are driven by weather and climate as well as environmental and ecological factors. Climate change affects plant phenology largely during the vegetative and reproductive stages. The focus of this study was to investigate the changes in phenological parameters of maize as well as to assess their causal factors across the selected maize-producing Provinces (viz: North West, Free State, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal) of South Africa. For this purpose, five phenological parameters i.e., the length of season (LOS), start of season (SOS), end of season (EOS), position of peak value (POP), and position of trough value (POT) derived from the MODIS NDVI data (MOD13Q1) were analysed. In addition, climatic variables (Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), Precipitation (PRE), Maximum (TMX) and Minimum (TMN) Temperatures spanning from 2000 to 2015 were also analysed. Based on the results, the maize-producing Provinces considered exhibit a decreasing trend in NDVI values. The results further show that Mpumalanga and Free State Provinces have SOS and EOS in December and April respectively. In terms of the LOS, KwaZulu-Natal Province had the highest days (194), followed by Mpumalanga with 177 days, while North West and Free State Provinces had 149 and 148 days, respectively. Our results further demonstrate that the influences of climate variables on phenological parameters exhibit a strong space-time and common covariate dependence. For instance, TMN dominated in North West and Free State, PET and TMX are the main dominant factors in KwaZulu-Natal Province whereas PRE highly dominated in Mpumalanga. Furthermore, the result of the Partial Least Square Path Modeling (PLS-PM) analysis indicates that climatic variables predict about 46% of the variability of phenology indicators and about 63% of the variability of yield indicators for the entire study area. The goodness of fit index indicates that the model has a prediction power of 75% over the entire study area. This study contributes towards enhancing the knowledge of the dynamics in the phenological parameters and the results can assist farmers to make the necessary adjustment in order to have an optimal production and thereby enhance food security for both human and livestock.
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Stager, J. C., P. A. Mayewski, J. White, B. M. Chase, F. H. Neumann, M. E. Meadows, C. D. King, and D. A. Dixon. "Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies." Climate of the Past Discussions 7, no. 6 (December 20, 2011): 4375–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-7-4375-2011.
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Abstract. The austral westerlies strongly influence precipitation and ocean circulation in the southern temperate zone, with important consequences for cultures and ecosystems. Global climate models anticipate poleward contraction of the austral westerlies with future warming, but the available paleoclimate records that might test these models have been largely limited to South America, are not fully consistent with each other, and may be complicated by influences from other climatic factors. Here we present the first fine-interval diatom and sedimentological records from the winter rainfall region of South Africa, representing precipitation during the last 1400 yr. Inferred rainfall increased ~1400–1200 cal yr BP and most notably during the Little Ice Age with pulses centered on ~600, 530, 470, 330, 200, and 90 cal yr BP. Synchronous fluctuations in Antarctic ice core chemistry strongly suggest that these variations are linked to changes in the westerlies. Partial inconsistencies among South African and South American records warn against the simplistic application of local-scale histories to the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. Nonetheless, these findings in general do support model projections of increasing aridity in austral winter rainfall zones with future warming.
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Baker, Andrea, Nikolai Pedentchouk, Joyanto Routh, and Alakendra N. Roychoudhury. "Climatic variability in Mfabeni peatlands (South Africa) since the late Pleistocene." Quaternary Science Reviews 160 (March 2017): 57–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.009.
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Watt, Michael S., Darren J. Kriticos, Shona L. Lamoureaux, and Graeme W. Bourdôt. "Climate Change and the Potential Global Distribution of Serrated Tussock (Nassella trichotoma)." Weed Science 59, no. 4 (December 2011): 538–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ws-d-11-00032.1.
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We used the process-oriented niche model CLIMEX to estimate the potential global distribution of serrated tussock under projected future climates. Serrated tussock is a drought-tolerant, wind- and human-dispersed grass of South American origin that has invaded pastures in Australia, Europe, New Zealand, and South Africa. The likely effect of climate change on its potential global distribution was assessed by applying six climate-change scenarios to a previously developed model. The projections of climatic suitability under the current climate revealed considerable scope for spread, with the most suitable areas occurring adjacent to existing naturalized populations in Australia, New Zealand, and Western Europe. Under future climates, projected to the 2080s, the land area suitable for serrated tussock contracts globally between 20 and 27%. Changes in projected potential area under the six scenarios were very similar in all geographical regions apart from North America and New Zealand, where the projections range from little change or contraction under the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Centre for Climate Research (MIROC) global climate models (GCMs) to expansion under the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) GCM. Elsewhere, contractions occur in Australia, Asia, South America, and Africa under all six future climate scenarios. By contrast, for Europe, the area climatically suitable for serrated tussock increases under all six scenarios (average increase 47%) through expansions into eastern European countries that are currently unsuitable and through increases in the suitable area in England, Ireland, and Denmark. Since pastoralism is a dominant land use in these regions of Europe, a prudent biosecurity strategy would be to contain the nascent foci of serrated tussock in southern France, along the west coast of Italy, and in the United Kingdom. This strategy could consist of a set of policies to limit human-assisted dispersal of the species' seeds and to reduce wind-borne spread through cultural control of the plant.
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Attfield, Robin. "Africa and Climate Change." Utafiti 14, no. 2 (March 4, 2020): 281–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/26836408-14010016.
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Abstract Africa is affected by climate change in multiple ways. Like other continents, its coastline is in danger of being flooded, and its islands are in danger of being inundated. Many people are forced by climate change to migrate, and this increases the flows of refugees moving both north towards the Mediterranean and south towards the Cape, seeking a viable homeland. It is in the interest of African countries to develop in ways that are climate-friendly. More electricity needs to be generated to enhance people’s quality of life, but this should be generated in environmentally friendly ways. Large schemes of tree-planting are also needed, to restore the forests of areas where they have been lost in civil conflicts (as in central and northern Ethiopia) and at the same time to sequestrate some of the carbon dioxide of the atmosphere. As well as mitigation, collaborative efforts are needed in the field of adaptation, so as to limit the impacts of climate change. Developing countries should assist such measures, but they should be adopted whether or not such assistance materialises.
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Miller, Charlotte, Jemma Finch, Trevor Hill, Francien Peterse, Marc Humphries, Matthias Zabel, and Enno Schefuß. "Late Quaternary climate variability at Mfabeni peatland, eastern South Africa." Climate of the Past 15, no. 3 (June 27, 2019): 1153–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1153-2019.
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Abstract. The scarcity of continuous, terrestrial, palaeoenvironmental records in eastern South Africa leaves the evolution of late Quaternary climate and its driving mechanisms uncertain. Here we use a ∼7 m long core from Mfabeni peatland (KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa) to reconstruct climate variability for the last 32 000 years (cal ka BP). We infer past vegetation and hydrological variability using stable carbon (δ13Cwax) and hydrogen isotopes (δDwax) of plant-wax n-alkanes and use Paq to reconstruct water table changes. Our results indicate that late Quaternary climate in eastern South Africa did not respond directly to orbital forcing or to changes in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Indian Ocean. We attribute the arid conditions evidenced at Mfabeni during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to low SSTs and an equatorward displacement of (i) the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, (ii) the subtropical high-pressure cell, and (iii) the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone (SIOCZ), which we infer was linked to increased Antarctic sea-ice extent. The northerly location of the high-pressure cell and the SIOCZ inhibited moisture advection inland and pushed the rain-bearing cloud band north of Mfabeni, respectively. The increased humidity at Mfabeni between 19 and 14 cal kyr BP likely resulted from a southward retreat of the westerlies, the high-pressure cell, and the SIOCZ, consistent with a decrease in Antarctic sea-ice extent. Between 14 and 5 cal kyr BP, when the westerlies, the high-pressure cell, and the SIOCZ were in their southernmost position, local insolation became the dominant control, leading to stronger atmospheric convection and an enhanced tropical easterly monsoon. Generally drier conditions persisted during the past ca. 5 cal ka BP, probably resulting from an equatorward return of the westerlies, the high-pressure cell, and the SIOCZ. Higher SSTs and heightened El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity may have played a role in enhancing climatic variability during the past ca. 5 cal ka BP. Our findings highlight the influence of the latitudinal position of the westerlies, the high-pressure cell, and the SIOCZ in driving climatological and environmental changes in eastern South Africa.
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van Jaarsveld, Albert S., and Steven L. Chown. "Climate change and its impacts in South Africa." Trends in Ecology & Evolution 16, no. 1 (January 2001): 13–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-5347(00)02037-1.
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Bosch, Tanja. "Blogging and tweeting climate change in South Africa." Ecquid Novi: African Journalism Studies 33, no. 1 (February 2012): 44–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02560054.2011.636825.
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Ziervogel, Gina, Mark New, Emma Archer van Garderen, Guy Midgley, Anna Taylor, Ralph Hamann, Sabine Stuart-Hill, Jonny Myers, and Michele Warburton. "Climate change impacts and adaptation in South Africa." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 5, no. 5 (July 3, 2014): 605–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.295.
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Meadows, Michael E., and Timm M. Hoffman. "Land degradation and climate change in South Africa." Geographical Journal 169, no. 2 (June 2003): 168–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1475-4959.04982.
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Lethoko, Mankolo. "CHILDREN AND YOUTH AS AGENTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT IN SOUTH AFRICA." Commonwealth Youth and Development 12, no. 1 (September 26, 2016): 75–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.25159/1727-7140/1609.
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When the democratic government came into power in 1994 in South Africa, it faced formidable problems stemming from the structural and historical inequalities and imbalances created by apartheid. Among the challenges included climate change. The release of the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) report indicates that climate change is a reality and its effects globally are getting worse daily. However, South African youth have not been adequately educated about climate change through formal basic schooling so that they can act as change agents.This article argues that the curriculum has to include relevant and the most recent content on climate change so that children can become agents of climate change in their homes and communities. The article uses content analysis of the National Curriculum Statement (2012) to determine the relevance and currency of climate change content in the present basic schooling curriculum. The article also makes recommendations on how the present content can be revised and made relevant to South African schools.
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M. Smit, Anet, and Johanna Magdalena van Zyl. "Investigate the level of disclosure of emissions of the top ten manufacturing companies in South Africa." Environmental Economics 7, no. 1 (March 24, 2016): 76–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ee.07(1).2016.10.
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Throughout the world, countries and companies are directing their attention towards actions to protect the planet. An important focus area during various initiatives is the aim to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatic system. Various targets are set by governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the South African Government is, among others, investigating a carbon tax policy to facilitate their transition to a greener economy. This paper analyzes the sustainability reports of the top ten manufacturing companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the disclosures of emissions were evaluated against a checklist that was developed through a literature review comprising various sources. From the results of the research, it is evident that all the companies reviewed are aware of the importance of emissions disclosure and the impact that emissions have on climate change. Companies, in general, adhere more to the qualitative, narrative type of requirements than to the more quantitative, performance-related reporting of emissions. In this study the reporting of the companies specifically on Scope 3 emissions were inadequate. More attention should be given to measure performance and to improve their systems to quantify data
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Mbokodo, Innocent, Mary-Jane Bopape, Hector Chikoore, Francois Engelbrecht, and Nthaduleni Nethengwe. "Heatwaves in the Future Warmer Climate of South Africa." Atmosphere 11, no. 7 (July 3, 2020): 712. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070712.
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Weather and climate extremes, such as heat waves (HWs), have become more frequent due to climate change, resulting in negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts in many regions of the world. The high vulnerability of South African society to the impacts of warm extreme temperatures makes the study of the effect of climate change on future HWs necessary across the country. We investigated the projected effect of climate change on future of South Africa with a focus on HWs using an ensemble of regional climate model downscalings obtained from the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, with 1983–2012 as the historical baseline. Simulations were performed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration) and 8.5 (high GHG concentration) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We found that the 30-year period average maximum temperatures may rise by up to 6 °C across much of the interior of South Africa by 2070–2099 with respect to 1983–2012, under a high GHG concentration. Simulated HW thresholds for all ensemble members were similar and spatially consistent with observed HW thresholds. Under a high GHG concentration, short lasting HWs (average of 3–4 days) along the coastal areas are expected to increase in frequency in the future climate, however the coasts will continue to experience HWs of relatively shorter duration compared to the interior regions. HWs lasting for shorter duration are expected to be more frequent when compared to HWs of longer durations (over two weeks). The north-western part of South Africa is expected to have the most drastic increase in HWs occurrences across the country. Whilst the central interior is not projected to experience pronounced increases in HW frequency, HWs across this region are expected to last longer under future climate change. Consistent patterns of change are projected for HWs under moderate GHG concentrations, but the changes are smaller in amplitude. Increases in HW frequency and duration across South Africa may have significant impacts on human health, economic activities, and livelihoods in vulnerable communities.
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Barbet-Massin, Morgane, Bruno A. Walther, Wilfried Thuiller, Carsten Rahbek, and Frédéric Jiguet. "Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines." Biology Letters 5, no. 2 (February 25, 2009): 248–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715.
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We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is −13 per cent (from −97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.
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Hahn, Annette, Frank H. Neumann, Charlotte Miller, Jemma Finch, Tarryn Frankland, Hayley C. Cawthra, Enno Schefuß, and Matthias Zabel. "Mid-to Late Holocene climatic and anthropogenic influences in Mpondoland, South Africa." Quaternary Science Reviews 261 (June 2021): 106938. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.106938.
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Chaboureau, A. C., Y. Donnadieu, P. Sepulchre, C. Robin, F. Guillocheau, and S. Rohais. "The Aptian evaporites of the South Atlantic: a climatic paradox?" Climate of the Past Discussions 8, no. 1 (January 5, 2012): 121–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-121-2012.
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Abstract. For a long time, evaporitic sequences have been interpreted as indicative of an arid climate. Such systematic interpretations led to the suggestion that the central segment of the South Atlantic (20°–0°) was characterized by an arid climate during the upper Aptian. Indeed, synchronous to this period that corresponds to the rifting and to the opening of this part of the South Atlantic, a large evaporitic sequence spreads out from the equator to 20° S. Using the fully ocean atmosphere coupled model FOAM, we test the potential for the Aptian geography to produce an arid area over the central segment. Sensitivity to the altitude of the rift shoulders separating the Africa and the South America cratons, to the water depth of the central segment and to the drainage pattern have been performed. Using seawater salinity as a diagnostic, our simulations show that the southern part of the central segment is characterized by very high salinity in the case of catchment areas draining the water out of the central segment. Conversely, whatever the boundary conditions used, the northern part of the central segment remains humid and salinities are very low. Hence, we conclude that the evaporites deposited in the southern part of the central segment may have been controlled by the climate favouring aridity and high saline waters. In contrast, the evaporites of the northern part can hardly be reconciled with the climatic conditions occurring there and may be due to hydrothermal sources. Our interpretations are in agreement with the gradient found in the mineralogical compositions of the evaporites from the north to the south, i.e. the northern evaporites are at least 4 times more concentrated than the southern one.
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Chaboureau, A. C., Y. Donnadieu, P. Sepulchre, C. Robin, F. Guillocheau, and S. Rohais. "The Aptian evaporites of the South Atlantic: a climatic paradox?" Climate of the Past 8, no. 3 (June 11, 2012): 1047–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1047-2012.
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Abstract. For a long time, evaporitic sequences have been interpreted as indicative of an arid climate. Such systematic interpretations led to the suggestion that the Central segment of the South Atlantic (20–0°) was characterized by an arid climate during the upper Aptian. Indeed, synchronous to this period that corresponds to the rifting and to the opening of this part of the South Atlantic, a large evaporitic sequence spreads out from the equator to 20° S. Using the fully ocean atmosphere coupled model FOAM, we test the potential for the Aptian geography to produce an arid area over the Central segment. Sensitivity to the altitude of the rift shoulders separating the Africa and the South America cratons, to the water depth of the Central segment and to the drainage pattern have been performed. Using seawater salinity as a diagnostic, our simulations show that the southern part of the Central segment is characterized by very high salinity in the case of catchment areas draining the water out of the Central segment. Conversely, whatever the boundary conditions used, the northern part of the Central segment remains humid and salinities are very low. Hence, we conclude that the evaporites deposited in the southern part of the Central segment may have been controlled by the climate favouring aridity and high saline waters. In contrast, the evaporites of the northern part can hardly be reconciled with the climatic conditions occurring there and may be due to hydrothermal sources. Our interpretations are in agreement with the gradient found in the mineralogical compositions of the evaporites from the North to the South, i.e. the northern evaporites are at least 4 times more concentrated than the southern one.
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Friedrich, Jonathan, Jannik Stahl, Gijsbert Hoogendoorn, and Jennifer M. Fitchett. "Exploring Climate Change Threats to Beach Tourism Destinations: Application of the Hazard–Activity Pairs Methodology to South Africa." Weather, Climate, and Society 12, no. 3 (July 1, 2020): 529–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-19-0133.1.
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AbstractClimate change poses significant threats to the sustainability of tourism economies globally. This is particularly true for beach tourism, which is highly dependent on the mean climate, daily weather, and natural setting of a destination to attract and satisfy tourists. This case study of the South African coastline provides new insights to the applicability of the vulnerability assessment methodology of hazard–activity pairs to the global south and specifically to sub-Saharan Africa. Through this method, tourists’ climate perceptions were analyzed and related to potential future impacts of climate change, creating hazard–activity pairs. Tourists’ perceptions of climate were captured by means of a questionnaire. Downscaled CMIP5 climate projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for six weather stations close to major beach tourism destinations were used to estimate changes in precipitation and temperature. This study reveals that future projections of a mean reduction in precipitation and increasing temperature may have positive rather than negative direct effects on South African beach tourism destinations because what tourists perceive as “comfortable” weather conditions are increasing in prevalence. Nevertheless, indirect and induced effects of an already changing climate, defining further hazard–activity pairs, must be considered in vulnerability assessments. This work endorses the applicability of the hazard–activity pair methodology to South Africa and the global south at large.
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Tlhompho, Gaoshebe. "African Indigenous Food Security Strategies and Climate Change Adaptation in South Africa." Journal of Human Ecology 48, no. 1 (October 2014): 83–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09709274.2014.11906777.
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Scott, L. "Late Quaternary vegetation history and climatic change in the eastern Orange Free State, South Africa." South African Journal of Botany 55, no. 1 (February 1989): 107–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0254-6299(16)31238-8.
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