Academic literature on the topic 'Climatic models'

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Journal articles on the topic "Climatic models"

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Quénol, Hervé, Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Benjamin Bois, Andrew Sturman, Valérie Bonnardot, and Renan Le Roux. "Which climatic modeling to assess climate change impacts on vineyards?" OENO One 51, no. 2 (May 15, 2017): 91. http://dx.doi.org/10.20870/oeno-one.2016.0.0.1869.

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The impact of climatic change on viticulture is significant: main phenological stages appear earlier, wine characteristics are changing,... This clearly illustrates the point that the adaptation of viticulture to climate change is crucial and should be based on simulations of future climate. Several types of models exist and are used to represent viticultural climates at various scales. In this paper, we propose a review of different types of climate models (methodology and uncertainties) and then few examples of its application at the scale of wine growing regions worldwide.
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Quénol, Hervé, Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Benjamin Bois, Andrew Sturman, Valérie Bonnardot, and Renan Le Roux. "Which climatic modeling to assess climate change impacts on vineyards?" OENO One 51, no. 2 (May 15, 2017): 91–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.20870/oeno-one.2017.51.2.1869.

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The impact of climatic change on viticulture is significant: main phenological stages appear earlier, wine characteristics are changing,... This clearly illustrates the point that the adaptation of viticulture to climate change is crucial and should be based on simulations of future climate. Several types of models exist and are used to represent viticultural climates at various scales. In this paper, we propose a review of different types of climate models (methodology and uncertainties) and then few examples of its application at the scale of wine growing regions worldwide.
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MacKey, Brendan G., Daniel W. McKenney, Yin-Qian Yang, June P. McMahon, and Michael F. Hutchinson. "Site regions revisited: a climatic analysis of Hills' site regions for the province of Ontario using a parametric method." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 26, no. 3 (March 1, 1996): 333–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x26-038.

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A climatic analysis was conducted` of Hills' site regions for Ontario using spatially distributed models of long-term, mean monthly climate data. Gridded estimates of eight climatic variables were generated by coupling thin-plate smoothing spline surfaces (fitted as a trivariate function of longitude, latitude, and elevation) to a 1-km resolution digital elevation model of Ontario. The gridded climate estimates were used to characterize the climate of each site region. New climatic classifications for the province were calculated from these data using a clustering algorithm. They were also compared with the existing site region boundaries. The analyses confirm many of the general climatic gradients established by Hills, but also suggest where major revisions should be made. The climatic models present new analytical opportunities for mapping plant–climate response in the context of forest planning and management.
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Duncan, Richard P., Phillip Cassey, and Tim M. Blackburn. "Do climate envelope models transfer? A manipulative test using dung beetle introductions." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 276, no. 1661 (February 25, 2009): 1449–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2008.1801.

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Climate envelope models (CEMs) are widely used to forecast future shifts in species ranges under climate change, but these models are rarely validated against independent data, and their fundamental assumption that climate limits species distributions is rarely tested. Here, we use the data on the introduction of five South African dung beetle species to Australia to test whether CEMs developed in the native range can predict distribution in the introduced range, where the confounding effects of dispersal limitation, resource limitation and the impact of natural enemies have been removed, leaving climate as the dominant constraint. For two of the five species, models developed in the native range predict distribution in the introduced range about as well as models developed in the introduced range where we know climate limits distribution. For the remaining three species, models developed in the native range perform poorly, implying that non-climatic factors limit the native distribution of these species and need to be accounted for in species distribution models. Quantifying relevant non-climatic factors and their likely interactions with climatic variables for forecasting range shifts under climate change remains a challenging task.
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Li, C. Z., L. Zhang, H. Wang, Y. Q. Zhang, F. L. Yu, and D. H. Yan. "The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 4 (April 26, 2012): 1239–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1239-2012.

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Abstract. This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), modified index of agreement (d1) and water balance error (WBE) were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to parameter instability and non-uniqueness.
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Li, C. Z., L. Zhang, H. Wang, Y. Q. Zhang, F. L. Yu, and D. H. Yan. "The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 8, no. 5 (September 23, 2011): 8701–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-8-8701-2011.

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Abstract. This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 years of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and absolute percentage water balance error (WBE) were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation can reduce uncertainties due to parameter instability and non-uniqueness.
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Green, Rhys E., Yvonne C. Collingham, Stephen G. Willis, Richard D. Gregory, Ken W. Smith, and Brian Huntley. "Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change." Biology Letters 4, no. 5 (July 29, 2008): 599–602. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0052.

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Twenty-five-year population trends of 42 bird species rare as breeders in the UK were examined in relation to changes in climatic suitability simulated using climatic envelope models. The effects of a series of potential ‘nuisance’ variables were also assessed. A statistically significant positive correlation was found across species between population trend and climate suitability trend. The demonstration that climate envelope models are able to retrodict species' population trends provides a valuable validation of their use in studies of the potential impacts of future climatic changes.
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Pujol, Toni, and Josep Enric Llebot. "Periodic Solutions in Low-Dimensional Climatic Models." Journal of Climate 12, no. 2 (February 1999): 325–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0325:psildc>2.0.co;2.

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Karakoti, Indira, Prasun Kumar Das, and Bibek Bandyopadhyay. "Diffuse radiation models for Indian climatic conditions." International Journal of Ambient Energy 33, no. 2 (June 2012): 75–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01430750.2011.640099.

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Croce, Pietro, Paolo Formichi, and Filippo Landi. "Enhancing the Output of Climate Models: A Weather Generator for Climate Change Impact Studies." Atmosphere 12, no. 8 (August 21, 2021): 1074. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081074.

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Evaluation of effects of climate change on climate variable extremes is a key topic in civil and structural engineering, strongly affecting adaptation strategy for resilience. Appropriate procedures to assess the evolution over time of climatic actions are needed to deal with the inherent uncertainty of climate projections, also in view of providing more sound and robust predictions at the local scale. In this paper, an ad hoc weather generator is presented that is able to provide a quantification of climate model inherent uncertainties. Similar to other weather generators, the proposed algorithm allows the virtualization of the climatic data projection process, overcoming the usual limitations due to the restricted number of available climate model runs, requiring huge computational time. However, differently from other weather generation procedures, this new tool directly samples from the output of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), avoiding the introduction of additional hypotheses about the stochastic properties of the distributions of climate variables. Analyzing the ensemble of so-generated series, future changes of climatic actions can be assessed, and the associated uncertainties duly estimated, as a function of considered greenhouse gases emission scenarios. The efficiency of the proposed weather generator is discussed evaluating performance metrics and referring to a relevant case study: the evaluation of extremes of minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, and ground snow load in a central Eastern region of Italy, which is part of the Mediterranean climatic zone. Starting from the model ensemble of six RCMs, factors of change uncertainty maps for the investigated region are derived concerning extreme daily temperatures, daily precipitation, and ground snow loads, underlying the potentialities of the proposed approach.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Climatic models"

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Gbobaniyi, Emiola Olabode. "Transferability of regional climate models over different climatic domains." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/4854.

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Includes bibliographical references (p. 119-144).
In the continuing quest to improve climate model predictions to meet the increasing demand for knowledge on the regional effects of global climate change, it is pertinent to increase our understanding of how the underlying processes of climate are represented in the models we use to make these predictions. Concerted efforts in model evaluations and intercomparison have provided numerous insights into various model biases which plague current state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs). Model evaluation and assessment is crucial to model development and understanding how physical processes are represented in models is necessary for improving model parameterizations. This thesis explored model transferability as a new approach for systematic process-based intercomparison of RCMs. It investigated an untested transferability hypothesis which states that “for non-monsoon regions experiencing weak synoptic scale forcing, the height of the cloud base is correlated with the daytime surface fluxes”. An initial transferability experiment was conducted over Cabauw, the Netherlands (51.97°N, 4.93°E) to assess the models’ skill in resolving the diurnal and seasonal cycles and to investigate the simulated connections between surface and hydrometeorological variables over a non-monsoon station. The ability of models to resolve these cycles correctly is a good metric of their predictive capabilities. The data used for the study comprises three-hourly surface observations for the period October 2002 – December 2004 from the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) measuring campaigns of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and three-year simulations (2002 -2004) from five RCMs (CLM, GEMLAM, MRCC, RCA3 and RSM). In simulating seasonal and diurnal cycles of CBH and surface variables, the European models (CLM and RCA3) demonstrate a clear home advantage over the North American models (GEMLAM, MRCC and RSM). Principal component analysis revealed that the models couple the cloud base height with surface fluxes as in observations and that this coupling is not sensitive to changes in wind speed. This study found that summer daytime loadings gave the strongest couplings of variables. Three major processes were identified over Cabauw. First and most dominant is the surface energy process which couples sensible and latent heat with net radiation. The second process is thermodynamic, coupling temperature and surface moisture (specific humidity), and the third is a dynamic process which couples pressure and wind speed. A model intercomparison was then carried out across the six midlatitude domains to test the validity of the Cabauw findings. In observations, CBH is well coupled with the surface fluxes over Cabauw, Bondville, Lamont and BERMS, but coupled only with temperature over Lindenberg and Tongyu. All the models (except GEMLAM) simulated a good coupling with surface fluxes at all stations. In GEMLAM, there is no coupling between CBH and surface fluxes at any station. In less homogenous domains of the study, a very slight decrease in the strength of coupling is seen in most of the models, under strong large scale forcing. This would suggest that the coupling between cloud base height and surface fluxes in the models is possibly more influenced by radiative forcing than by synoptic controls. This second study confirmed the findings at Cabauw that the simulated cloud base is correlated with surface energy fluxes and the sign of the correlations in the models is as in observations. This finding is important for the modeling community as it establishes the fact that the models are actually simulating the direction of influence of surface fluxes and possibly, soil water variability, on cloud processes.
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Salazar-Ferrer, Olivier. "Climatic variability and aperiodic behaviour: low order climate models and dynamical reconstruction." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/213250.

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Cain, Russell. "The climatic significance of tropical forest edges and their representation in global climate models." Thesis, Durham University, 2009. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/302/.

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An emerging theme in global climate modelling is whether land covers created in the clearance of tropical humid forests influence water exchange between remnant forest patches and the atmosphere, and, if so, how this affects regional and global water exchange. Fieldwork presented in this thesis ascertains whether the amount of water transferred to the atmosphere from a humid tropical forest situated in Sabah, Northern Borneo, Malaysia, differs between its edge and interior due to the influence of surrounding clearings through horizontal heat transfer. Using satellite imagery to measure the shape and size of tropical forests, field measurements of water transfer were extrapolated to continental and global levels to infer how differences in water exchange with the atmosphere between forest edges and interiors may influence regional and global forest-atmosphere water exchange. Mean sap flow in trees within 50 meters of a forest-clearing boundary was found to be 73% greater than that in trees further into the forest; an observation supported by the decreased canopy temperature also recorded there. Evaporation from the forest canopy constituted a high fraction of annual rainfall (33%), but showed no edge effect similar to that of sap flow. Edge plots, however, expressed evapotranspiration rates 22% lower than forest interiors (657-890 mm yr-1), owing to the lower number and size of trees there. One edge plot, however, exhibited evapotranspiration 49.5% greater than that of forest interiors. Gradients of air temperature, vapour pressure deficit and wind speed from the adjacent clearing to the forest interior indicated that warm, dry air moving from the clearing to the forest was the most credible cause of increased sap flow of trees near the forest edge. This hypothesis was supported by a strong correlation between the amount of vapour in the air moving from the clearing and tree water use. It was estimated that the influence of differences in water transfer to the atmosphere between the edges and interiors of tropical forest would not alter global water transfer to the atmosphere by more than 0.25-4%, or by 4-7% in the most fragmented tropical continent, Africa. However, it remains unclear whether the inclusion of tropical forest edge effects within climate models is necessary, as the pioneering nature of this thesis, and of existing studies reviewed within it, means that solid conclusions will be dependent upon future work. This thesis concludes with suggestions for future research that will most effectively consolidate the provisional conclusions and recommendations herein.
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Santer, B. D. "Regional validation of General Circulation Models." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.383549.

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Graham, Stephen Thomas. "Continental river routing for fully coupled climate system models /." Full text (PDF) from UMI/Dissertation Abstracts International, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p3024456.

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Pasquali, Flavia. "State space models for the analysis and forecasting of climatic time series." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2021. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/23081/.

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We analyse climatic time series with state space models in order to compute the forecast distribution. The task is challenging since the temperature series are characterised by large temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. We modify and apply the three-step method proposed in Li et al. Journal of Econometrics 2020, which exploit the cross information in order to improve prediction. We fit the linear Gaussian state space model to different univariate time series, estimating the model parameters with the Kalman filter and computing the prediction errors. The prediction error time series are then jointly analysed by means of a dynamic factor model. The estimation procedure follows the two-step approach suggested by Doz, Giannone, and Reichlin in the context of macro-economic time series nowcasting. Finally, the simulation smoother by Durbin and Koopman allows to sample scenarios conditional on the observed time series and to reconstruct the forecast distribution. The results we obtained are promising. They demonstrate the feasibility of the entire procedure. Our explorations involved just a climatic parameter (the maximum temperature) and a reduced sample of data (8 years on a weekly basis for twenty climatic stations) , but we preliminarily tested the whole approach on much longer time series - up to 150 years - with a richer cross-sectional structure - up to 10.000 stations - experiencing viable computational times and very promising estimation results.
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Pérez, Navarro Maria Ángeles. "Plant species climatic niche and its relationship with population responses to extreme drought." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/669559.

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Understanding how climate affects species’ distribution and performance is a central issue in ecology since its origins. In last decades, however, the interest in this question has been reactivated by the current context of climate change. Species Niche Modelling has been widely used to assess shifts in species distribution and to test the relationship between species’ climatic niche and species physiological and demographic performance. Nevertheless it is still largely undetermined whether these models can portray population and community responses, particularly in relation to extreme climatic episodes. In this thesis I aim at exploring the capacity of niche modelling to predict species decay under extreme climatic conditions, particularly droughts, addressing some constraints of this approach and proposing possible solutions. To achieve this goal, I counted with 3 vegetation decay datasets measured in the Spanish SE after the extreme drought year 2013-2014. In the second chapter I used different Species Distribution Model (SDMs) algorithms to estimate species’ climatic suitability before (1950-2000) and during the extreme drought, in order to test the possible correlation between suitability and decay, and whether the existence of this relationship depended on the applied SDM algorithm. I consistently found a positive correlation between remaining green canopy and species’ climatic suitability before the event, suggesting that populations historically living closer to their species’ tolerance limits are more vulnerable to drought. Contrastingly, decreased climatic suitability during the drought period did not correlate with remaining green canopy, likely because of extremely low climatic suitability values achieved during the exceptional climatic episode. In order to test whether this extremely low suitability values could derive as a consequence of only considering climatic averages when calibrating SDMs, in the thired chapter I developed a method to include inter-annual climatic variability into niche characterization. I then compared the respective capacities of climatic suitabilities obtained from averaged-based and from inter-annual variability-based niches to explain demographic responses to extreme climatic events. I found that climatic suitability obtained from both niches quantifications significantly explained species demographic responses. However, climatic suitability from inter-annual variability-based niches showed higher explanatory capacity, especially for populations that tend to be more geographically marginal. In the fourth chapter I tried to overcome the inability of the SDMs to predict populations decay during extreme conditions, by using Euclidean distances to species’ niche in the environmental space. I compared the capacities of both population distances in the climatic environmental space and population climatic suitability derived from SDMs to explain population observed demographic responses to an extreme event. I found that SDMs-derived suitability failed to explain population decay while distances to the niche centroid and limit significantly explained population die-off, highlighting that population displaced farther from species’ niche during the extreme episode showed higher vulnerability to drought. In the fifth chapter, I used species niche characterizations in the environmental space and demographic data to address the impact of extreme events at community level. Particularly, I estimated the community climatic disequilibrium before and after a drought episode. I found that extreme drought nested within a decadal trend of increasingly aridity led to a reduction in community climatic disequilibrium.
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Serefiddin, Feride Schwarcz H. P. "Paleoclimate models for western North America as inferred from speleothem isotope records /." *McMaster only, 2003.

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Tidwell, Amy C. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on river basin management a new method with application to the Nile river/." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/19830.

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Thesis (Ph.D)--Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007.
Committee Chair: Georgakakos, Aris; Committee Member: Fu, Rong; Committee Member: Peters-Lidard, Christa; Committee Member: Roberts, Phil; Committee Member: Sturm, Terry; Committee Member: Webster, Don.
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Zeng, Ning. "Climatic impact of Amazon deforestation: A study of underlying mechanism through simple modeling." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/186999.

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An intermediate level model for tropical climatology including atmosphere-land-ocean interaction is developed. The model contains basically linearized steady state primitive equations with simplified thermodynamics. A simple hydrological cycle is also included. Special attention has been paid to land surface processes in attempting to study climate change caused by Amazon deforestation. In comparison with previous simple modeling work on tropical climatology or anomaly, the present model is more sophisticated in the sense that it predicts all the important meteorological variables with little input, while being computationally simple. The modeled tropical climatology appears to be realistic. The model generally better simulates the ENSO anomaly compared to many previous simple model simulations. We provide analysis of model results and discuss model deficiencies and possible improvements of the model. The climatic impact of Amazon deforestation is studied in the context of this model. Model results show a much weakened Atlantic Walker/Hadley circulation as a result of the existence of a strong positive feedback loop in the atmospheric circulation system and the hydrological cycle. The regional climate is very sensitive to albedo change and sensitive to evapotranspiration change. The pure dynamical effect of surface roughness on convergence is small, but the surface flow anomaly displays intriguing features. Analysis of the thermodynamic equation reveals the balance among convective heating, adiabatic cooling and radiation largely determines the deforestation response. The model provides a plausible mechanism for the common results of many GCM simulations. Studies of the consequences of hypothetical continuous deforestation suggest that the replacement of forest by desert may be able to sustain a desert-like climate. When a simple mixed layer ocean model is coupled with the atmospheric model, the results suggest a 1 °C decrease in SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic ocean in response to Amazon deforestation. The magnitude of the decrease depends on the coupling strength.
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Books on the topic "Climatic models"

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Dobrovolʹskiĭ, S. G. Stochastic climate theory: Models and applications. New York: Springer, 2000.

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NASA Scientific Forum on Climate Variability and Global Change (1999 Vienna, Austria). NASA Scientific Forum on Climate Variability and Global Change: 20 July 1999 : UNISPACE III. [Washington, DC]: Published by National Aeronautics and Space Administration as a contribution to United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs for UNISPACE III, 1999.

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Malanson, George P. Improving environmental simulation models: To asses climate change impacts. Iowa City, Iowa: Uniersity of Iowa, Dept. of Geography, 1990.

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Rapp, Donald. Ice Ages and interglacials: Measurements, interpretation and models. Berlin: Springer, 2009.

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E, Schlesinger M., ed. Physically-based modelling and simulation of climate and climatic change. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988.

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Singer, Carol A. Simulation models of climate change: January 1979 - April 1993. Beltsville, Md: National Agricultural Library, 1993.

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Singer, Carol A. Simulation models of climate change: January 1979 - April 1993. Beltsville, Md: National Agricultural Library, 1993.

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Singer, Carol A. Simulation models of climate change: January 1979 - April 1993. Beltsville, Md: National Agricultural Library, 1993.

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Chaikowsky, C. L. A. Analysis of Alberta temperature observations and estimates by global climate models. Edmonton, Alberta: The Branch, 2000.

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Japan) IPCC Asia-Pacific Workshop on Integrated Assessment Models (1997 Tokyo. Climate change and integrated assessment models (IAMs): Bridging the gap : proceedngs of the IIPC Asia-Pacific Workshop on Integrated Assessment Models, United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan, March 10-12, 1997. Onogawa, Tsuuba, Ibaraki, Japan: Secretariat of the IIPC Asia-Pacific Workshop on Integrated Assessment Models, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Environmental Agency of Japan, 1997.

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Book chapters on the topic "Climatic models"

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Joussaume, S., and J. Jouzel. "Simulation of Paleoclimatic Tracers Using Atmospheric General Circulation Models." In Abrupt Climatic Change, 369–81. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3993-6_31.

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Flohn, Hermann. "Air-Sea Interaction Processes as Models for Abrupt Climatic Changes." In Abrupt Climatic Change, 23–30. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3993-6_2.

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Taylor, Karl E. "Climate Models for the Study of Paleoclimates." In Long-Term Climatic Variations, 21–41. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-79066-9_2.

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Hunt, Barrie, and A. C. Hirst. "Global Climatic Models and Their Potential for Seasonal Climatic Forecasting." In Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems, 89–107. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_7.

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Klemeš, V. "Geophysical Time Series and Climatic Change." In Hydrological Models for Environmental Management, 109–28. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0470-1_9.

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Dobrovolski, Serguei G. "Stochastic Models of Recent Climatic Changes." In Stochastic Climate Theory, 125–210. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04119-2_4.

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Ghil, M. "Deceptively-Simple Models of Climatic Change." In Climate and Geo-Sciences, 211–40. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2446-8_11.

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Fouquart, Y. "Radiative Transfer in Climate Models." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change, 223–83. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3041-4_5.

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North, G. R. "Lessons from Energy Balance Models." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change, 627–51. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_1.

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Wigley, T. M. L., and B. D. Santer. "Validation of General Circulation Climate Models." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change, 841–79. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_6.

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Conference papers on the topic "Climatic models"

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Stefanakos, Christos N., and Erik Vanem. "Climatic Forecasting of Wind and Waves Using Fuzzy Inference Systems." In ASME 2017 36th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2017-61968.

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Wind and wave climatic simulations are of great interest in a number of different applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. In a climate change perspective, projections of such simulations to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. This work investigates the applicability of FIS/ANFIS models for climatic simulations of wind and wave data. The models are coupled with a nonstationary time series modelling, which decomposes the initial time series into a seasonal mean value and a residual part multiplied by a seasonal standard deviation. In this way, the nonstationary character is first removed before starting the fuzzy forecasting procedure. Then, the FIS/ANFIS models are applied to the stationary residual part providing us with more unbiased climatic estimates. Two long-term datasets for an area in the North Atlantic Ocean are used in the present study, namely NORA10 (57 years) and ExWaCli (30 years in the present and 30 years in the future). Two distinct experiments have been performed to simulate future values of the time series in a climatic scale. The assessment of the simulations by means of the actual values kept for comparison purposes gives very good results.
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Gaidukova, Ekaterina, Natalia Victorova, Igor Vinokurov, and Victor Alexandrov. "INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ON THE DIMENSION OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELS." In 20th SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Proceedings 2020. STEF92 Technology, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgem2020v/1.3/s02.19.

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"Natural Handling of Uncertainties in Fuzzy Climate Models." In Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences. SciTePress - Science and and Technology Publications, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0004633605370544.

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Guinard, L., S. Parey, H. Cordier, and L. Grammosenis. "Impact of Climate Change on EDF’s Nuclear Facilities: Climate Watch Approach." In 2020 International Conference on Nuclear Engineering collocated with the ASME 2020 Power Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone2020-16186.

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Abstract According to the Periodic Safety Review Process, the safety level is re-assessed every ten years, considering national and international operational feedback, evolution of knowledge and best available practices. Protection against natural hazards is part of this safety level re-assessment. In the current global change context, climate change impact has to be integrated in external natural hazards estimations, such as climatic hazards or external flooding. EDF has consequently implemented a climate watch approach. Undertaken approximately every 5 years, roughly in line with the publication of the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and with the update of safety licensing basis during Periodic Safety Reviews, this approach is intended to: - revisit the climatic hazards which present a plausible or certain upward trend, and could lead to an increased reference hazard level, - monitor the reach of target levels which should trigger a thorough analysis (concept of Major Climate Event) to ensure the robustness of the reference hazard level between two periodic reviews. This climate watch approach is developed in partnership with the scientific community and is based on the following activities: - compile and analyze datasets on hazards that are subject to changes with climate change (observed and modelled time series), - develop knowledge of associated climatic phenomena (models, projections). The application of this approach is presented in two steps: - the key implications of the last climate watch exercise carried out in 2015, which identified climatic hazards whose evolution is unfavorable and is plausible or certain for the sites of EDF NPPs: ○ High air and water temperatures (for the “heat wave” hazard) ○ Sea level (for the “external flooding” hazard for coastal or estuary sites) ○ Drought or « low flow » hazard for fluvial sites; - the results obtained for the 900 MW units, for which EDF started the 4th periodic safety review in 2019. Such an approach, which is closely linked to periodic reviews, ensures the robustness of nuclear power plants to the climatic hazards through the consideration of the updated hazard levels.
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Gorbachev, S. V., and A. Elistratov. "Comprehensive Approach to Seismic Projects in Complex Geological and Climatic Conditions, from Design to Interpretation." In Far East Hydrocarbons 2012 - From oil and gas basin studies to field models. Netherlands: EAGE Publications BV, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.20142987.

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Samokhvalov, Ignatii V., Ilia D. Bryukhanov, Natalia N. Cheredko, and Sergei V. Zuev. "Problem of correct accounting the special features of cirrus microstructure in climatic models." In XXV International Symposium, Atmospheric and Ocean Optics, Atmospheric Physics, edited by Gennadii G. Matvienko and Oleg A. Romanovskii. SPIE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2540922.

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Santos, Enock T., Luis E. Zarate, and Elizabeth M. D. Pereira. "Neural models to insert climatic information in thermal model of swimming pools — simulation for different climate conditions and profile of human activity." In 2010 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics - SMC. IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icsmc.2010.5642221.

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"Quantitative Models Evaluating the Effect Climate Change Effects on Tourism - State of the Art." In Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences. SciTePress - Science and and Technology Publications, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0004591404790488.

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"Simple Fuzzy Logic Models to Estimate the Global Temperature Change Due to GHG Emissions." In Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences. SciTePress - Science and and Technology Publications, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0004164905180526.

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Huang, Wei, Xiangzheng Deng, Jinyan Zhan, and Yingzhi Lin. "Estimating the Effects of Climatic Change on Grain Production: Spatial Versus Non-Spatial Models." In 2009 2nd International Conference on Biomedical Engineering and Informatics. IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/bmei.2009.5304798.

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Reports on the topic "Climatic models"

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Prell, W., T. Web, and J. Kutzbach. Evaluation of climatic models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), October 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/5548977.

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Hameed, S. Diagnostic Studies of Climatic Variations in Models and in Observations. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), February 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/833779.

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Notaro, Michael, Fuyao Wang, Yan Yu, Jiafu Mao, Xiaoying Shi, and Yaxing Wei. Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), November 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1574103.

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Covey, Curt, Richard Lindzen, John Fasullo, and Karl Taylor. Quasi-stationary Planetary Scale Waves in Modern Climate Models. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), November 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1716593.

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Prell, W. L., and T. III Webb. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), August 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/7160388.

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Prell, W. L., T. III Webb, and R. J. Oglesby. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), October 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/5981400.

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Verburg, Peter H., Žiga Malek, Sean P. Goodwin, and Cecilia Zagaria. The Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform: IEEM Platform Technical Guides: User Guide for the IEEM-enhanced Land Use Land Cover Change Model Dyna-CLUE. Inter-American Development Bank, September 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003625.

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The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework (CLUE) was developed to simulate land use change using empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors in combination with dynamic modeling of competition between land use types. Being one of the most widely used spatial land use models, CLUE has been applied all over the world on different scales. In this document, we demonstrate how the model can be used to develop a multi-regional application. This means, that instead of developing numerous individual models, the user only prepares one CLUE model application, which then allocates land use change across different regions. This facilitates integration with the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform for subnational assessments and increases the efficiency of the IEEM and Ecosystem Services Modeling (IEEMESM) workflow. Multi-regional modelling is particularly useful in larger and diverse countries, where we can expect different spatial distributions in land use changes in different regions: regions of different levels of achieved socio-economic development, regions with different topographies (flat vs. mountainous), or different climatic regions (dry vs humid) within a same country. Accounting for such regional differences also facilitates developing ecosystem services models that consider region specific biophysical characteristics. This manual, and the data that is provided with it, demonstrates multi-regional land use change modeling using the country of Colombia as an example. The user will learn how to prepare the data for the model application, and how the multi-regional run differs from a single-region simulation.
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Wyndham, Amber, Emile Elias, Joel Brown, Michael Wilson, and Albert Rango. Drought Vulnerability Assessment to Inform Grazing Practices on Rangelands of Southeastern Colorado’s Major Land Resource Area 69. USDA Southwest Climate Hub, July 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.6947062.ch.

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Increased climate variability, including more frequent and intense drought, is projected for the southwestern region of the United States. Increased temperatures and reduced precipitation lower soil water availability, resulting in decreased plant productivity and altering species composition, which may affect forage quality and quantity. Reduced forage quality and increased heat stress attributable to warmer temperatures could lead to decreased livestock performance in this system, which is extensively used for livestock grazing. Mitigating the effects of increasing drought is critical to social and ecological stability in the region. Reduced stocking rates, change in livestock breeds and/or grazing practices are general recommendations that could be implemented to cope with increased climatic stress. Ecological Sites and their associated state–and-transition models (STMs) are tools to help land managers implement and evaluate responses to disturbances. The projected change in climate will vary depending upon geographic location. Vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies are needed at the local level to inform local management decisions and help ameliorate the effects of climate change on rangelands. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Southwest Climate Hub and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) worked together to produce this drought vulnerability assessment at the Major Land Resource Area (MLRA) level, based on ecological sites and state-and-transition models that will help landowners and government agencies to identify and develop adaptation options for drought on rangelands. The assessment illustrates how site-specific information can be used to help minimize the effects of drought on rangelands and support informed decision-making for the selection of management adaptations within MLRA 69.
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Kao, C. Y. J., S. Elliott, R. P. Turco, and X. Zhao. Integrating chemistry into 3D climate models: Detailed kinetics in the troposphere and stratosphere of a global climate model. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), November 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/548668.

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Johannesson, G. Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), March 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/974391.

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