Relevant bibliographies by topics / Coattail Effect of Presidential Election

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  2. Dissertations / Theses
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  4. Book chapters

Academic literature on the topic 'Coattail Effect of Presidential Election'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 16 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Coattail Effect of Presidential Election"

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Campbell, James E. "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections." American Political Science Review 80, no. 1 (March 1986): 45–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957083.

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The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41 states are examined. The analysis indicates that the president's party gains seats in presidential elections in proportion to the presidential vote in a state, and subsequently loses seats in midterm elections also in proportion to the prior presidential vote in the state. The presidential coattail and the midterm repercussion effects are evident even when gubernatorial coattail effects are introduced, but are fairly modest in states lacking competitive parties.
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Broockman, David E. "Do Congressional Candidates Have Reverse Coattails? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design." Political Analysis 17, no. 4 (2009): 418–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpp013.

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Although the presidential coattail effect has been an object of frequent study, the question of whether popular congressional candidates boost vote shares in return for their parties' presidential candidates remains unexplored. This article investigates whether so-called “reverse coattails” exist using a regression discontinuity design with congressional district-level data from presidential elections between 1952 and 2004. Taking incumbency to be near-randomly distributed in cases where congressional candidates have just won or lost their previous elections, I find that the numerous substantial advantages of congressional incumbency have no effect on presidential returns for these incumbents' parties. This null finding underscores my claim that the existing coattail literature deserves greater scrutiny. My results also prompt a rethinking of the nature of the advantages that incumbents bring to their campaigns and may help deepen our understanding of partisanship in the United States.
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Rich, Timothy S. "COATTAILS AND MIXED ELECTORAL SYSTEMS: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN'S 2016 ELECTION." Journal of East Asian Studies 18, no. 1 (January 9, 2018): 47–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jea.2017.25.

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AbstractTo what extent do presidential candidates influence voting in mixed member legislative elections? A sizable literature addresses presidential–legislative coattail effects in the American context, with less attention given to this interaction in non-Western democracies. Nor is the role of past voting behavior adequately assessed in the literature. Taiwan's historic 2016 election allows for an analysis of the extent in which the popularity of presidential candidates influences coattail voting in the more complex electoral environment of two-vote mixed legislative systems. Evidence finds that, controlling for partisanship and previous voting behavior, voters who supported a presidential candidate were more likely to also support the party's legislative candidates, although this influence is stronger in regards to Democratic Progressive Party's Tsai Ing-wen.
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Fullmer, Elliott, and Rebecca Daniel. "Invisible Coattails: Presidential Approval and Gubernatorial Elections, 1994–2014." Forum 16, no. 2 (July 26, 2018): 269–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/for-2018-0013.

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AbstractHoping to insulate their contests from national politics, thirty-six states hold their gubernatorial elections in national midterm election years. Many scholars have assessed whether presidential evaluations nevertheless have an effect on these races, though findings have varied. We offer a new approach to examining this question, relying on underutilized state-level presidential approval data preceding 143 gubernatorial races across six national midterm election cycles. Accounting for the effects of state ideology, gubernatorial approval, campaign spending, state economic performance, and incumbency, we report that presidential approval has a positive and significant effect on the performance of the presidential party in gubernatorial races. The substantive effects are modest, though still potentially meaningful. In the primary specification, an additional six points of presidential approval is associated with about one additional point of gubernatorial vote share.
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Alesina, Alberto, John Londregan, and Howard Rosenthal. "A Model of the Political Economy of the United States." American Political Science Review 87, no. 1 (March 1993): 12–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2938953.

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We develop and test a model of joint determination of economic growth and national election results in the United States. The formal model, which combines developments in the rational choice analysis of the behavior of economic agents and voters, leads to a system of equations in which the dependent variables are the growth rate and the vote shares in presidential and congressional elections. Our estimates support the theoretical claims that growth responds to unanticipated policy shifts and that voters use both on-year and midterm elections to balance the two parties. On the other hand, we find no support for “rational” retrospective voting. We do reconfirm, in a fully simultaneous framework, the “naive” retrospective voting literature's finding that the economy has a strong effect on presidential voting. We find congressional elections unaffected by the economy, except as transmitted by presidential coattails.
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Ames, Barry. "The Reverse Coattails Effect: Local Party Organization in the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election." American Political Science Review 88, no. 1 (March 1994): 95–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2944884.

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Increasingly, it is said that the main determinants of electoral outcomes are class, ethnicity, and religion and that local political organizations occupy only marginal roles in national elections. I assess the effects of local party organizations in the presidential election of 1989 in Brazil. Given the long hiatus in competitive politics, the absence of any parties linked to the country's previous democratic experience, and the weakness of citizen identification with political parties, Brazil should be a textbook example of the collapse of local political organizations. The presidential candidates, however, acted as if party endorsements mattered, and in the context of Brazilian politics, it was rational for municipal mayors to trade blocs of votes for future local benefits. Applying a series of increasingly complex models to the vote shares of the leading candidates, I show that all candidates did significantly better in municipalities where the mayor represented their party. I also show that spatial factors affect the tactics of local politicians, and I distinguish charismatic from purely organizational components of support.
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Golosov, Grigorii V., and Kirill Kalinin. "Presidentialism and legislative fragmentation: Beyond coattail effects." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 19, no. 1 (December 19, 2016): 113–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369148116682654.

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Using data from a nearly comprehensive set of the world’s electoral democracies, 1992–2014, this article empirically evaluates the impact of presidentialism upon legislative fragmentation. The analysis demonstrates that the impact is strong, consistent across a wide variety of political contexts, and conditioned by the type of presidential regime, the scope of presidential powers, electoral system effects, and essential party system properties. While much of the reasoning regarding the interplay between presidentialism and legislative fragmentation has been traditionally focused on short-term coattail effects of presidential elections, this study shows that these effects are real, but they are insufficient to make a significant impact upon the parameter of crucial importance for the functioning of presidential regimes: the number of parties in the legislature. The main impact of presidentialism is systemic, stemming from its tendency to restrict the number of parties to a limited set of viable competitors for the presidential prize.
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Ratnawati and Davit Romansa. "Coattail Effect Strategy of Gerindra Party in 2019 Concurrent Election." UNISCI Journal 18, no. 53 (May 2020): 177–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.31439/unisci-90.

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Stone, Walter J. "The Carryover Effect in Presidential Elections." American Political Science Review 80, no. 1 (March 1986): 271–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957095.

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The carryover hypothesis asserts that participants' candidate support behavior in the general election is affected by their preferences for their party's nomination. This paper examines data from activist and national sample surveys for evidence of a carryover effect in the 1980 election. There is a detectable carryover effect on voting behavior both for activists and for citizens generally. Among activists, where evidence about candidate support behaviors beyond voting is available, the effect on such activity is substantial, and increases with the effort associated with the general election activity in question.
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MEREDITH, MARC. "Exploiting Friends-and-Neighbors to Estimate Coattail Effects." American Political Science Review 107, no. 4 (October 8, 2013): 742–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055413000439.

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Federalist democracies often hold concurrent elections for multiple offices. A potential consequence of simultaneously voting for multiple offices that vary with respect to scope and scale is that the personal appeal of candidates in a high-profile race may affect electoral outcomes in less salient races. In this article I estimate the magnitude of such coattail effects from governors onto other concurrently elected statewide executive officers using a unique dataset of county election returns for all statewide executive office elections in the United States from 1987 to 2010. I exploit the disproportionate support that candidates receive from geographically proximate voters, which is often referred to as the friends-and-neighbors vote, to isolate variation in the personal appeal of candidates. I find that a one-percentage-point increase in the personal vote received by a gubernatorial candidate increases the vote share of their party's secretary of state and attorney general candidates by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, personal votes for a secretary of state or attorney general candidate have no effect on the performance of their party's gubernatorial candidate or other down-ballot candidates.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Coattail Effect of Presidential Election"

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Phillips, Andrew Michael. "An examination of the effect of church attendance on African American political ideology in the 2004 Presidential Election." Connect to Electronic Thesis (CONTENTdm), 2010. http://worldcat.org/oclc/646030252/viewonline.

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Dube, William. "The effect of new media on political advertising : television ads and internet ads in the 2008 presidential election /." Online version of thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1850/9697.

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King, Bridgett A. "The Effect of State Policy on the Individual Vote Decisions of African Americans in Presidential and Midterm Elections, 1996 to 2008." Kent State University / OhioLINK, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1342496746.

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McConnell, Ethan. "What effect does a state's economic, political, and demographic characteristics have on the support of the 2008 presidential general-election democratic candidate?" Connect to Electronic Thesis (CONTENTdm), 2009. http://worldcat.org/oclc/444576057/viewonline.

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Epstein, Scott. "The rational voter in an age of red and blue states the effect of perceived closeness on turnout in the 2004 presidential election /." CONNECT TO ELECTRONIC THESIS, 2007. http://dspace.wrlc.org/handle/1961/4156.

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Lewis, Ted Adam. "The Effect of American Political Party on Electoral Behavior: an Application of the Voter Decision Rule to the 1952-1988 Presidential Elections." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1990. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc503830/.

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The purpose of this study is to examine two major psychological determinants of the vote in presidential elections - candidate image and party orientation. The central thesis of this study is that candidate image, as measured here, has been a greater determinant of electoral choice in the majority of presidential elections since 1952 than has party orientation. One of the vices as well as virtues of a democratic society is that the people often get what they want. This is especially true in the case of electing our leaders. Political scientists have often concentrated their efforts on attempting to ascertain why people vote as they do. Studies have been conducted focusing on the behavior of voters in making that important decision-who should govern?
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Lewis, Mitzi. "A Hierarchical Regression Analysis of the Relationship Between Blog Reading, Online Political Activity, and Voting During the 2008 Presidential Campaign." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2010. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc33182/.

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The advent of the Internet has increased access to information and impacted many aspects of life, including politics. The present study utilized Pew Internet & American Life survey data from the November 2008 presidential election time period to investigate the degree to which political blog reading predicted online political discussion, online political participation, whether or not a person voted, and voting choice, over and above the predication that could be explained by demographic measures of age, education level, gender, income, marital status, race/ethnicity, and region. Ordinary least squares hierarchical regression revealed that political blog reading was positively and statistically significantly related to online political discussion and online political participation. Hierarchical logistic regression analysis indicated that the odds of a political blog reader voting were 1.98 the odds of a nonreader voting, but vote choice was not predicted by reading political blogs. These results are interpreted within the uses and gratifications framework and the understanding that blogs add an interpersonal communication aspect to a mass medium. As more people use blogs and the nature of the blog-reading audience shifts, continuing to track and describe the blog audience with valid measures will be important for researchers and practitioners alike. Subsequent potential effects of political blog reading on engagement, discussion, and participation will be important to understand as these effects could impact the political landscape of this country and, therefore, the world.
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Li, Wen-Kai, and 李文凱. "Stock Forecasting Model under the Effect of Presidential Election." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/5rkmr9.

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碩士
國立中正大學
會計與資訊科技研究所
106
This study wants to find a suitable time point for investment and investment targets, in view of a short period of time after the presidential election stock prices rose higher, so this study determines the period and the event, expect to find good screening of investment targets screening model. In this study, we found all the variables that have been proved to be effective from the past studies as the input variables of this study. After the selection of variables, we make neural network prediction. In addition, this study also tried to use event research to confirm that the presidential election has a significant impact on the stock market. After the event research method used to confirm that the presidential election has a significant impact on the stock market. The study conducted during the election period, hoping to obtain better forecasting ability. Use the 15 days prior to the election as a restriction to do the collection of variables as much as possible that used to predict the election 15 days after the stock price. The results of this study are mainly due to the good or bad predictors of the variables. The predictions result of stepwise regression in the three screening methods is bad. The remaining principal component analysis and random forest two methods, the principal component analysis to 80% of the main components to make better than 90% of the main components of the results are slightly worse than the original model, did not enhance the effect of predicting ability. The random forest is better than the principal component analysis and even beyond the unscreened variable model, which is the best prediction model in this study.
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Xian-ZhongGuo and 郭憲忠. "The effect of political uncertainty on accounting conservatism: evidence from Taiwan presidential election." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/846m52.

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碩士
國立成功大學
經濟學系
104
Under Basu’s (1997) interpretation of conservatism, earning reflects bad news more quickly than good news. My samples include observations of firm listed on Taiwan stock exchange market and over-the-counter (OTC) market from 1999 to 2012, and I employ the C-SCORE measure to examine the variation of accounting conservatism around Taiwan presidential elections. My empirical result shows that accounting conservatism increase in the years prior to the election periods. Further, I also find that the effect of political uncertainty on accounting conservatism is greater when election is more competitive or incumbent president is seeking re-election.
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Tsai, Aiyun, and 蔡艾芸. "The Effect of the Presidential Election on the Momentum Strategy in the Emerging Markets." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/yxuhnn.

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碩士
國立中正大學
財務金融研究所
101
This paper, using stock markets data from 10 emerging markets between January 1999 and July 2012, examines the momentum strategies documented by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) and Novy-Marx (2012). The results indicate that there are momentum returns in the emerging markets. Furthermore, this study divides the momentum returns of the periods of the presidential elections from the other periods. To discuss the effect of the presidential elections, I found that there are still momentum returns in the emerging markets during the periods of the presidential elections. However, the momentum returns in either the periods of the presidential elections or the other cannot beat the market index returns.
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Books on the topic "Coattail Effect of Presidential Election"

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Perry, Elisabeth Israels. The Difference that “Difference” Makes. University of Illinois Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5406/illinois/9780252036606.003.0012.

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This concluding chapter explores whether the categories of difference that set Americans apart from one another will ever, or should ever, cease to figure in assessments of a person's qualifications for office. It reflects upon what the chapters of this book can teach us about the stereotypes that surfaced during the 2008 campaign, the influence of past political struggles of white women and women and men of color on the election results, and the possible effect of that experience on future presidential races and on the larger political culture within which we live. Arguing that the elimination of categories of difference is neither reasonable nor necessarily desirable, this chapter suggests that the acknowledgment of and respect for difference might be a better goal.
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Shaw, Daron, and John Petrocik. The Turnout Myth. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190089450.001.0001.

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This book refutes the widely held convention that high turnout in national elections advantages Democratic candidates while low turnout helps Republicans. It examines over fifty years of presidential, gubernatorial, Senate, and House election data to show there is no consistent partisan effect associated with turnout. The overall relationship between the partisan vote and turnout for these offices is uncorrelated. Most significant, there is no observable party bias to turnout when each office or seat is examined through time. In some states, across the decades, gubernatorial and senatorial contests show a pro-Democratic bias to turnout; in others an increase in turnout helps Republicans. The pattern repeats for House elections during the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and through the 2010s. The analysis demonstrates that, within the range that turnout varies in American elections, it is the participation and abstention of easily influenced, less engaged citizens—peripheral voters—that move the outcome between the parties. These voters are the most influenced when the short-term forces of the election—differential candidate appeal, issues, scandals, and so forth—help the parties. Since these influences advantage Republicans as often as Democrats, the oscillation in turnout that coincides with pro-GOP and pro-Democratic forces leaves turnout rates inconsequential overall. The connections between short-term forces and the election cycle dominate the inconsistent partisan effects of turnout.
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Book chapters on the topic "Coattail Effect of Presidential Election"

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Yoo, Boonghee, Shawn T. Thelen, and Jessica Feinstein. "The Effect of Fear, Threat, and Trust Among Voters in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election: An Abstract." In Marketing Opportunities and Challenges in a Changing Global Marketplace, 203–4. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39165-2_87.

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"LATINO AGENDA-SETTING EFFECT ON THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION." In The Mass Media and Latino Politics, 376–90. Routledge, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203877142-28.

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Aririguzoh, Stella Amara. "Crystallization Effect of Television Broadcasts on Nigerian Voters During a Presidential Election." In Global Perspectives on the Impact of Mass Media on Electoral Processes, 18–39. IGI Global, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-4820-2.ch002.

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Television is popularly used to offer information to viewers during elections. There will always be citizens who register to participate in an election and then refuse to take further steps, like casting their votes. This study sought to find out if television broadcasts made citizens like these experience the crystallization effect. This effect causes uninterested citizens to make crystal clear choices on particular contestants. This study sought to find out about the crystallization effect on voters in Ado Odo/Ota communities in Ogun State of Nigeria during the 2007 Nigerian presidential election. The survey method was used to get required data from 782 respondents who were not members of any political party, had no candidate preference, and were yet to decide on who to vote for in this election. It seems plain from this study that television broadcasts sharpened these citizens' decisions to make specific choices. These undecided, indifferent, or neutral voters had their ideas crystallized or decisively formed to vote for specific candidates after exposure to television broadcasts.
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Dique, Lauren, and Maria Gallego. "Estimating the Effect of Voters’ Media Awareness on the 2016 US Presidential Election." In Elections - A Global Perspective. IntechOpen, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.80964.

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Jamieson, Kathleen Hall. "The Effect of Hacked Content on the Last Two Presidential Debates." In Cyberwar, 187–95. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190058838.003.0012.

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In Chapter 11, Jamieson examines how the hacked content affected the last two presidential debates of the election, in which the moderators took excerpts of Clinton speeches from the emails released via WikiLeaks and deployed them out of context in their questions. One hacked excerpt was spun into a debate question directed at Clinton about whether it’s acceptable for a politician to be “two-faced”; her response and the subsequent framing by Trump, Russian trolls, and Trump-aligned media fueled the supposition that the Democratic nominee had different public and private stances. In the final debate, a line from another Russian-gotten speech was used to imply that Clinton wanted “open borders,” serving both to create an extended discussion of one of Trump’s central campaign appeals and to further the idea that Clinton’s statements in private diverged from those she made in public.
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Boatright, Robert G., and Valerie Sperling. "In the Shadow of Trump." In Trumping Politics as Usual, 62–98. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190065829.003.0004.

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This chapter explores the impact of presidential primary campaigns on House and Senate primary races, looking at the relationship between presidential and nonpresidential primaries, and evaluating the effect Donald Trump had on candidate emergence and strategy. Few candidates wished to associate themselves with Trump, yet the Republican presidential primary so dominated media and public attention that Republican primary candidates who might have flourished in any other year, such as conservative, Tea Party–style candidates, were unable to garner attention or raise as much money as they might otherwise have. Moreover, even in the handful of primary races featuring so-called “mini-Trumps,” there were few in which attention to gender issues or misogynist rhetoric played a role. The chapter documents these findings by comparing 2016 to prior election years with regard to primary competition, turnout, and spending, and examining congressional primaries in which Republican candidates were overtly compared to or endorsed Donald Trump.
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Kempker, Erin M. "Epilogue." In Big Sister, 135–42. University of Illinois Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.5622/illinois/9780252041976.003.0007.

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The epilogue explores how conspiracy exploded onto the national political scene in the 2016 presidential election cycle with the candidacy of Donald Trump. The prevalence of conspiracy belief in contemporary American is explored, as well as the effect conspiracy belief and conspiracism have on public perceptions of government and politics. The epilogue concludes by returning the focus to women’s politics and how conspiracy belief adds even more variety to the already large number of differences that separate American women’s politics and women’s worldviews.
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Knight, Alan. "2. The old regime and the causes of the Revolution (1876–1911)." In The Mexican Revolution: A Very Short Introduction, 8–26. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/actrade/9780198745631.003.0002.

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‘The old regime and the causes of the Revolution’ outlines the historical backdrop to the Revolution. Porfirio Díaz’s rule (1876–1911) proved crucial in the Revolution’s gestation. The Porfirian regime was strikingly successful: railway mileage increased from virtually none to 15,000; foreign direct investment grew more than thirty-fold; exports quadrupled; and GNP nearly tripled. However, Porfirian development did have a decisive—and negative—effect on Mexican (especially rural) society. Two related trends were crucial: the strengthening of the state and the commercialization of agriculture. The rise of liberal opposition in the run-up to the 1910 presidential election took the regime by surprise and provided the opening act of the Revolution.
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Kraner, Mariah. "Social Media and Voter Participation." In Digital Democracy, 1596–610. IGI Global, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-1740-7.ch079.

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This chapter looks at the political trends associated with using social media sources as a way to enhance participation in national elections. It is hypothesized that participation has declined across groups and through time, regardless of the new uses of social media in political campaigning. The historical significance of voter participation is examined using Alexis De Tocqueville’s and Robert Putnam’s frameworks. The path is paved to examine both the importance of new media in the election process and its drawbacks. A national empirical test is presented that examines the correlation between race categories, genders, and age ranges, with the percentage of voter turnout in each presidential election year from 1964 to 2008. Regression analysis is also conducted to examine the predictive nature of increased time on national voter participation. The correlation and regression results are presented, indicating that, in general, participation has continued to decline among most groups, regardless of the perceived access and connection provided by social media outlets. However, a slight change after 1996 may indicate an effect from social media presence. The data presents a starting point for future evaluation of e-government effects on national voter participation in the election process, providing a benchmark for later empirical tests.
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Kraner, Mariah. "Social Media and Voter Participation." In Public Service, Governance and Web 2.0 Technologies, 19–33. IGI Global, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-0071-3.ch002.

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This chapter looks at the political trends associated with using social media sources as a way to enhance participation in national elections. It is hypothesized that participation has declined across groups and through time, regardless of the new uses of social media in political campaigning. The historical significance of voter participation is examined using Alexis De Tocqueville’s and Robert Putnam’s frameworks. The path is paved to examine both the importance of new media in the election process and its drawbacks. A national empirical test is presented that examines the correlation between race categories, genders, and age ranges, with the percentage of voter turnout in each presidential election year from 1964 to 2008. Regression analysis is also conducted to examine the predictive nature of increased time on national voter participation. The correlation and regression results are presented, indicating that, in general, participation has continued to decline among most groups, regardless of the perceived access and connection provided by social media outlets. However, a slight change after 1996 may indicate an effect from social media presence. The data presents a starting point for future evaluation of e-government effects on national voter participation in the election process, providing a benchmark for later empirical tests.
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