Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Coattail Effect of Presidential Election'

The purpose of this study is to examine two major psychological determinants of the vote in presidential elections - candidate image and party orientation. The central thesis of this study is that candidate image, as measured here, has been a greater determinant of electoral choice in the majority of presidential elections since 1952 than has party orientation. One of the vices as well as virtues of a democratic society is that the people often get what they want. This is especially true in the case of electing our leaders. Political scientists have often concentrated their efforts on attempting to ascertain why people vote as they do. Studies have been conducted focusing on the behavior of voters in making that important decision-who should govern?

The advent of the Internet has increased access to information and impacted many aspects of life, including politics. The present study utilized Pew Internet & American Life survey data from the November 2008 presidential election time period to investigate the degree to which political blog reading predicted online political discussion, online political participation, whether or not a person voted, and voting choice, over and above the predication that could be explained by demographic measures of age, education level, gender, income, marital status, race/ethnicity, and region. Ordinary least squares hierarchical regression revealed that political blog reading was positively and statistically significantly related to online political discussion and online political participation. Hierarchical logistic regression analysis indicated that the odds of a political blog reader voting were 1.98 the odds of a nonreader voting, but vote choice was not predicted by reading political blogs. These results are interpreted within the uses and gratifications framework and the understanding that blogs add an interpersonal communication aspect to a mass medium. As more people use blogs and the nature of the blog-reading audience shifts, continuing to track and describe the blog audience with valid measures will be important for researchers and practitioners alike. Subsequent potential effects of political blog reading on engagement, discussion, and participation will be important to understand as these effects could impact the political landscape of this country and, therefore, the world.

碩士
國立中正大學
會計與資訊科技研究所
106
This study wants to find a suitable time point for investment and investment targets, in view of a short period of time after the presidential election stock prices rose higher, so this study determines the period and the event, expect to find good screening of investment targets screening model. In this study, we found all the variables that have been proved to be effective from the past studies as the input variables of this study. After the selection of variables, we make neural network prediction. In addition, this study also tried to use event research to confirm that the presidential election has a significant impact on the stock market. After the event research method used to confirm that the presidential election has a significant impact on the stock market. The study conducted during the election period, hoping to obtain better forecasting ability. Use the 15 days prior to the election as a restriction to do the collection of variables as much as possible that used to predict the election 15 days after the stock price. The results of this study are mainly due to the good or bad predictors of the variables. The predictions result of stepwise regression in the three screening methods is bad. The remaining principal component analysis and random forest two methods, the principal component analysis to 80% of the main components to make better than 90% of the main components of the results are slightly worse than the original model, did not enhance the effect of predicting ability. The random forest is better than the principal component analysis and even beyond the unscreened variable model, which is the best prediction model in this study.

碩士
國立成功大學
經濟學系
104
Under Basu’s (1997) interpretation of conservatism, earning reflects bad news more quickly than good news. My samples include observations of firm listed on Taiwan stock exchange market and over-the-counter (OTC) market from 1999 to 2012, and I employ the C-SCORE measure to examine the variation of accounting conservatism around Taiwan presidential elections. My empirical result shows that accounting conservatism increase in the years prior to the election periods. Further, I also find that the effect of political uncertainty on accounting conservatism is greater when election is more competitive or incumbent president is seeking re-election.

碩士
國立中正大學
財務金融研究所
101
This paper, using stock markets data from 10 emerging markets between January 1999 and July 2012, examines the momentum strategies documented by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) and Novy-Marx (2012). The results indicate that there are momentum returns in the emerging markets. Furthermore, this study divides the momentum returns of the periods of the presidential elections from the other periods. To discuss the effect of the presidential elections, I found that there are still momentum returns in the emerging markets during the periods of the presidential elections. However, the momentum returns in either the periods of the presidential elections or the other cannot beat the market index returns.

碩士
國立宜蘭大學
應用經濟學系碩士班
99
It seems that the domestic elections and fluctuation in the stock market strong relation have strong relation. This study focuses on the Taiwan’s presidential election in 2008. First, this study examines whether the abnormal returns exist in the stock market during the election period by using the event study approach. By adopting the concept of anchoring effect, Amir and Ganzach’s regression model(1998) is modified to explain the biased reactions of stock market investors. The difference among this study and other election and stock fluctuation related studies is that this research introduces the concept of anchoring effect which is used to explain the analysts’ biased reactions to earning forecasts. For example, if we suppose the political statements of president candidates would affect the decisions of stock market investors on forecasting the stock trend, then it is an anchor. When investors are restricted on this reference point, the underreaction phenomenon would appear in the stock market. According to this study, the positive abnormal returns are significant before the president’s inauguration day. However, the global economic recession made the investors lose confidence on the stock market and foreign investors oversell the stocks after the president’s inauguration day, which caused the negative abnormal returns. On the other hand, the stock market trend after the election is anchored at the beginning’s anticipation that caused the underreaction of price correction. Therefore, the anchoring effect is significant in the behavior of stock investors. If we further divide the samples into stock price rise (over correction than expectation) and stock price decline (under correction than expectation), we find the prices in the subsample of price rise are significantly higher than the final prices, which results in overreaction. The subsample of price decline, the prices are high than the final prices which leads to underreaction. This phenomenon represents that the anchoring effect exists in the behavior of stock investors after the presidential election.

博士
中國文化大學
中山與中國大陸研究所博士班
102
ABSTRACT This study investigated the relationships among Taiwanese voters’“cross-strait political issues position,” “media usage behavior,” “voting decisions,” and whether their “cross-strait political issues position” associated with the media’s related reporting stand in the 2012 presidential election. In addition, this study also explored on the mainland people’s “Taiwan media usage behavior” and “cross-strait political issues opinions,” to further interpret the results of Taiwan’s study in the present study regard as circumstantial evidence. In order to verify whether the study’s four hypotheses can be established, this study used the content analysis to explore four newspapers’ reporting stand on “cross-strait political issues” (the 1992 Consensus, ECFA, Taiwan Consensus) in the election period, and an exit polls and follow-up telephone interviews of Taiwanese voters’, additional questionnaires survey and in-depth interviewed mainland Chinese people. Factor analysis, chi-square analysis, multinomial logistic regression analysis were performed and reached the main findings and conclusions as follows: THE MAIN FINDINGS (1)China Times, United Daily News, Liberty Times, Apple Daily the four newspapers media’s reporting position on “cross-strait political issues (the 1992 Consensus, ECFA, Taiwan Consensus),” in which both the “1992 Consensus”and “ECFA” issues had significantly different position, but the “Taiwan Consensus” issue found no significant difference. (2)Taiwan voters’ “media usage behavior” and their “cross-strait political issues position”, “voting decisions” significantly associated, in which the correlation with “cross-strait political issues position,” was higher than “voting decisions.” (3)During the 2012 presidential election, Taiwan voters’ “cross-strait political issues position” was significantly associated with the media’s “cross-strait political issues coverage stand” they used. (4)The mainland people’s “cross-strait political issues position ( including four aspects: ‘support for the cross-strait discourse,’ ‘support for the cross-strait agreement,’ ‘unfavorable on cross-strait current status,’ and ‘favorable on cross-strait progress’),” and their “Taiwan media usage behavior” significantly associated. CONCLUSION (1)In the 2012 presidential election, the mass media’s influence on the people across the Taiwan Strait was mainly in the political awareness, opinion and attitude aspects, on Taiwan voters’ voting behavior caused only a slight impact. In fact, this election influenced either on Taiwan voters’ “cross-strait political issues position” or their “voting decisions,” Taiwan voters’ “media usage behavior” influence less than their “party identification”. This showed due to Taiwan voters’ strong “party identification”, made their selective “media exposure behavior” to be more effectively than the mass media’s “Agenda-Setting” function; not only confirmed the “party identification” its effect on voting behavior in the 2012 presidential election was still to play the most crucial role; also confirmed the main function of the mass media is to enhance rather than changing the audience existing behavior. In addition, according to the result of “ ‘party identification,’ ‘media usage behavior,’ ‘cross-strait political issues position,’ influenced on ‘voting decisions’ ” in Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis, the effect of “party identification” on “voting decisions” was higher than that on “cross-strait political issues position.” In other words, that the influence of Taiwan voters’ “party identification” in the 2012 presidential election, was mainly on their behavior level, lesser on their cognitive, opinions and attitudes levels. (2)This study explored by “the relationship between the four of Taiwan voters’ ‘party identification,’ ‘media usage behavior,’ ‘cross-strait political issues position’ and ‘voting decisions,’ ” found that the mass media in the 2012 presidential election influenced on Taiwan voters’ “cross-strait political issues (the 1992 Consensus, ECFA, Taiwan Consensus) position,” in which the most significant impact was on the “1992 Consensus position.” And according to the study result of “Taiwan voters’ ‘party identification,’ ‘media usage behavior,’ ‘cross-strait political issues position’ influence on their ‘voting decisions’ ” in Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis, that Taiwan voters’ “media usage behavior” influenced on their “1992 consensus position,” and the influence also to the same extent reflected in the result that Taiwan voters’ “1992 consensus position” effected on their “voting decision,” but in this mode the most affect to “voting decisions” was the “ECFA position” (Its impact was equivalent to “party identification”), followed by the “Taiwan Consensus position,” again for the “1992 consensus position.” Obviously, the economic factor equates party identification factor on voting behavior also has a strong influence large enough to overcome the impact caused by the mass media. However, the impact of mass media on the voters’ “1992 Consensus position” was still effective in influencing their “voting decisions,” indeed, though the 2012 presidential election isn't a referendum of the “1992 Consensus,” but it can be said a referendum of the “ECFA,” while for Ma Ying-jeou's victory, the “1992 Consensus” is also a timely boost to play the finishing touches. In fact, the "cross-strait political issues," whether its "ECFA", "Taiwan Consensus" or "1992 Consensus" on the 2012 presidential election, voters’ “voting decisions” has caused quite a significant impact.

碩士
國立中央大學
企業管理研究所
94
There are very many factors influencing Taiwanese investors to invest in the stock market, it is nearly divided into the economic factor and not economic factors. And the serious acute respiratory disease syndrome influencing the heaviest 2003 to Taiwan in recent years (hereafter referred to as SARS) disease disaster of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS ). It is not that an economic factor is a political factor that another kind is comparatively common, such as electing. The dispute after selecting after 2004 general presidential election also causes influence on the stock market of Taiwan. Therefore, this research is with SARS incident and two incidents of general presidential election of 2004, utilize the event study to probe into stock price influence of transport service, general merchandise industry, and visiting industry. The empirical research finds that the results of SARS incident and 2004 general presidential election, except that transport the type stock in SARS incident does not accord with Semistrong-form efficiency market hypothesis, the others all accord with Semistrong-form efficiency. SARS incident and 2004 general presidential election all cause the stock of transporting, general merchandise, and visiting industry to have the Cumulative Abnormal Returns. In SARS incident and 2004 general presidential election, the classification of the industry has no statistic significant difference of Cumulative Abnormal Returns. Four financial rate factors which this research adopts: total asset (TA), return on assets, the liquidity ratio (CR), and the ratio of debt to asset (LA) unable to totally explain all industries. The empirical research shows that the classification of the industry and different events both result in the diversified understanding of investors. Far greater than other event to the impact that enterprises operate in a short time because of SARS incident, so investors will pay attention to the liquidity ratio of short-term debt paying ability. However, investors will consider the relevant financial rates totally about the 2004 general presidential election.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
政治學研究所
94
In the traditions of mass communication theory, mass media is responsible for social integration, public interests and national democratization. In recent years, however, Taiwan’s mass media, including newspapers and television stations, has been developing an organism in a symbiotic relationship with conspicuous political high profile--- so-called green and blue. As green-blue political ground is considered as different political ideologies, Taiwan’s mass media has become a unit of political mobilization. Most of he previous studies have showed that political party identity is a significant predictor of voting behavior, while scant attention in the literature has been paid to the effect of mass media political ground on voting saviors. This study is a breakthrough by using Hierarchical Linear Model that allows us to examine cross-level effect, including aggregate and individual levels. This study aims to answer whether there is a significant cluster effect of mass media with different degree of political ground on voting behaviors in 2004 presidential election in Taiwan. Correspond analysis was first used to quantify mass media’s political ground, which was classified into green or blue imaged by the public in the past. The findings accord with people’s image about Taiwan mass media’s political ground. This thesis, however, unlocks the answer in the first step. Second, the results of multilevel model confirm the existence of cluster effect of media. The audiences of media with more blue ground are more likely than their counterparts to vote for Lien-Song, and vice versa. After controlling for party identity, the cluster effect slightly declines but is still statistically significant. We still have no direct answer to the question whether audience‘s political ground in mind comes first and then affects their choice of mass media or they are under the influence of mass media to choose the political parties and candidates. It is similar to the question of which came first, the chicken or the egg and is worthy to be further investigated in the future.

碩士
國立中興大學
國家政策與公共事務研究所
104
The election is an essential mechanism of modern democratic politics, as well as a fundamental process in the practice of democracy. The research results of the past studies focusing on Taiwan’s elections showed that both party identification and candidate orientation are the important factors that have a significant influence on voters. In the era of information explosion, the spread of messages is even quicker and far-reaching. On this account, the search of electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) has been a preparatory step for modern people to engage in shopping behavior. Through the collection of eWOM information, customers are able to accumulate the correct basic information about the products before making decisions. With the increase in the application of the Internet, politicians have started to use the Internet as a communication platform with the voters, and voters in return have also used the online platform to comment on public policies, political parties and candidates. The concepts of shopping and voting are considerably similar as both of them are rational selection processes regardless of deciding which product to buy or which candidate to vote. Then the question arises: if the eWOM affects the voters’ decisions on selecting candidates? Taking the users from PTT Gossiping Board as the subjects, this study aimed to explore the factors that affected their voting choices of the 2016 presidential election. The online questionnaire and voluntary sampling methods were used, and a total of 300 copies of valid questionnaires were collected. The results clearly showed that if the participants recognized a certain political party or had a particular preference for a certain candidate, they were more likely to vote the party or the candidate. The results also found that if the participants used PTT for a longer time, they were more likely to recognize the quality and sources of eWOM on PTT Gossiping Board. Moreover, they were also more likely to use the articles of PTT Gossiping Board as a reference when considering their voting strategies.