Journal articles: 'Coattail Effect of Presidential Election'

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Campbell, James E. "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections." American Political Science Review 80, no. 1 (March 1986): 45–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957083.

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The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41 states are examined. The analysis indicates that the president's party gains seats in presidential elections in proportion to the presidential vote in a state, and subsequently loses seats in midterm elections also in proportion to the prior presidential vote in the state. The presidential coattail and the midterm repercussion effects are evident even when gubernatorial coattail effects are introduced, but are fairly modest in states lacking competitive parties.

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Broockman, David E. "Do Congressional Candidates Have Reverse Coattails? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design." Political Analysis 17, no. 4 (2009): 418–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpp013.

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Although the presidential coattail effect has been an object of frequent study, the question of whether popular congressional candidates boost vote shares in return for their parties' presidential candidates remains unexplored. This article investigates whether so-called “reverse coattails” exist using a regression discontinuity design with congressional district-level data from presidential elections between 1952 and 2004. Taking incumbency to be near-randomly distributed in cases where congressional candidates have just won or lost their previous elections, I find that the numerous substantial advantages of congressional incumbency have no effect on presidential returns for these incumbents' parties. This null finding underscores my claim that the existing coattail literature deserves greater scrutiny. My results also prompt a rethinking of the nature of the advantages that incumbents bring to their campaigns and may help deepen our understanding of partisanship in the United States.

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Rich, Timothy S. "COATTAILS AND MIXED ELECTORAL SYSTEMS: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN'S 2016 ELECTION." Journal of East Asian Studies 18, no. 1 (January 9, 2018): 47–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jea.2017.25.

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AbstractTo what extent do presidential candidates influence voting in mixed member legislative elections? A sizable literature addresses presidential–legislative coattail effects in the American context, with less attention given to this interaction in non-Western democracies. Nor is the role of past voting behavior adequately assessed in the literature. Taiwan's historic 2016 election allows for an analysis of the extent in which the popularity of presidential candidates influences coattail voting in the more complex electoral environment of two-vote mixed legislative systems. Evidence finds that, controlling for partisanship and previous voting behavior, voters who supported a presidential candidate were more likely to also support the party's legislative candidates, although this influence is stronger in regards to Democratic Progressive Party's Tsai Ing-wen.

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Fullmer, Elliott, and Rebecca Daniel. "Invisible Coattails: Presidential Approval and Gubernatorial Elections, 1994–2014." Forum 16, no. 2 (July 26, 2018): 269–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/for-2018-0013.

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AbstractHoping to insulate their contests from national politics, thirty-six states hold their gubernatorial elections in national midterm election years. Many scholars have assessed whether presidential evaluations nevertheless have an effect on these races, though findings have varied. We offer a new approach to examining this question, relying on underutilized state-level presidential approval data preceding 143 gubernatorial races across six national midterm election cycles. Accounting for the effects of state ideology, gubernatorial approval, campaign spending, state economic performance, and incumbency, we report that presidential approval has a positive and significant effect on the performance of the presidential party in gubernatorial races. The substantive effects are modest, though still potentially meaningful. In the primary specification, an additional six points of presidential approval is associated with about one additional point of gubernatorial vote share.

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Alesina, Alberto, John Londregan, and Howard Rosenthal. "A Model of the Political Economy of the United States." American Political Science Review 87, no. 1 (March 1993): 12–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2938953.

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We develop and test a model of joint determination of economic growth and national election results in the United States. The formal model, which combines developments in the rational choice analysis of the behavior of economic agents and voters, leads to a system of equations in which the dependent variables are the growth rate and the vote shares in presidential and congressional elections. Our estimates support the theoretical claims that growth responds to unanticipated policy shifts and that voters use both on-year and midterm elections to balance the two parties. On the other hand, we find no support for “rational” retrospective voting. We do reconfirm, in a fully simultaneous framework, the “naive” retrospective voting literature's finding that the economy has a strong effect on presidential voting. We find congressional elections unaffected by the economy, except as transmitted by presidential coattails.

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Ames, Barry. "The Reverse Coattails Effect: Local Party Organization in the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election." American Political Science Review 88, no. 1 (March 1994): 95–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2944884.

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Increasingly, it is said that the main determinants of electoral outcomes are class, ethnicity, and religion and that local political organizations occupy only marginal roles in national elections. I assess the effects of local party organizations in the presidential election of 1989 in Brazil. Given the long hiatus in competitive politics, the absence of any parties linked to the country's previous democratic experience, and the weakness of citizen identification with political parties, Brazil should be a textbook example of the collapse of local political organizations. The presidential candidates, however, acted as if party endorsements mattered, and in the context of Brazilian politics, it was rational for municipal mayors to trade blocs of votes for future local benefits. Applying a series of increasingly complex models to the vote shares of the leading candidates, I show that all candidates did significantly better in municipalities where the mayor represented their party. I also show that spatial factors affect the tactics of local politicians, and I distinguish charismatic from purely organizational components of support.

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Golosov, Grigorii V., and Kirill Kalinin. "Presidentialism and legislative fragmentation: Beyond coattail effects." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 19, no. 1 (December 19, 2016): 113–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369148116682654.

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Using data from a nearly comprehensive set of the world’s electoral democracies, 1992–2014, this article empirically evaluates the impact of presidentialism upon legislative fragmentation. The analysis demonstrates that the impact is strong, consistent across a wide variety of political contexts, and conditioned by the type of presidential regime, the scope of presidential powers, electoral system effects, and essential party system properties. While much of the reasoning regarding the interplay between presidentialism and legislative fragmentation has been traditionally focused on short-term coattail effects of presidential elections, this study shows that these effects are real, but they are insufficient to make a significant impact upon the parameter of crucial importance for the functioning of presidential regimes: the number of parties in the legislature. The main impact of presidentialism is systemic, stemming from its tendency to restrict the number of parties to a limited set of viable competitors for the presidential prize.

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Ratnawati and Davit Romansa. "Coattail Effect Strategy of Gerindra Party in 2019 Concurrent Election." UNISCI Journal 18, no. 53 (May 2020): 177–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.31439/unisci-90.

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9

Stone, Walter J. "The Carryover Effect in Presidential Elections." American Political Science Review 80, no. 1 (March 1986): 271–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957095.

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The carryover hypothesis asserts that participants' candidate support behavior in the general election is affected by their preferences for their party's nomination. This paper examines data from activist and national sample surveys for evidence of a carryover effect in the 1980 election. There is a detectable carryover effect on voting behavior both for activists and for citizens generally. Among activists, where evidence about candidate support behaviors beyond voting is available, the effect on such activity is substantial, and increases with the effort associated with the general election activity in question.

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MEREDITH, MARC. "Exploiting Friends-and-Neighbors to Estimate Coattail Effects." American Political Science Review 107, no. 4 (October 8, 2013): 742–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055413000439.

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Federalist democracies often hold concurrent elections for multiple offices. A potential consequence of simultaneously voting for multiple offices that vary with respect to scope and scale is that the personal appeal of candidates in a high-profile race may affect electoral outcomes in less salient races. In this article I estimate the magnitude of such coattail effects from governors onto other concurrently elected statewide executive officers using a unique dataset of county election returns for all statewide executive office elections in the United States from 1987 to 2010. I exploit the disproportionate support that candidates receive from geographically proximate voters, which is often referred to as the friends-and-neighbors vote, to isolate variation in the personal appeal of candidates. I find that a one-percentage-point increase in the personal vote received by a gubernatorial candidate increases the vote share of their party's secretary of state and attorney general candidates by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, personal votes for a secretary of state or attorney general candidate have no effect on the performance of their party's gubernatorial candidate or other down-ballot candidates.

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Lago, Ignacio. "The psychological effect of electoral systems in founding elections." Party Politics 25, no. 2 (May 8, 2017): 221–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354068817706342.

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In this research note, I revisit the conventional wisdom about when the psychological effect of electoral systems is observed. I rely on data from the first presidential and legislative elections in 45 third- and fourth-wave presidential and semi-presidential regimes to show that the psychological effect of electoral systems manifests itself in the first election. The effective number of legislative parties is significantly higher than the effective number of presidential candidates in the first election when the electoral system in legislative elections is more permissive than in presidential elections.

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12

Knuckey, Jonathan. "The “Palin Effect” in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election." Political Research Quarterly 65, no. 2 (April 8, 2011): 275–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1065912911401415.

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Sturm, Ray R. "The ‘other’ January effect and the presidential election cycle." Applied Financial Economics 19, no. 17 (September 2009): 1355–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09603100802599589.

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Southwell, Priscilla L. "The Effect of Nomination Divisiveness on the 2008 Presidential Election." PS: Political Science & Politics 43, no. 02 (April 2010): 255–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096510000089.

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AbstractThis research examines the effect of disgruntlement among primary and caucus voters who supported U.S. presidential nomination losers—a potentially divisive nomination process. I analyze the general election voting behavior of primary and caucus voters in the 2008 presidential election to determine if differences exist between supporters of the winning nominee in each party and backers of other candidates who also sought the nomination. A multivariate analysis of the determinants of “loyal party vote” suggests that Clinton and Edwards supporters showed a significantly higher degree of defection in the general election, although this behavior did not occur among people who voted for Romney or Huckabee in their state's primary or caucus.

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Shaikh, Imlak. "The U.S. Presidential Election 2012/2016 and Investors’ Sentiment: The Case of CBOE Market Volatility Index." SAGE Open 9, no. 3 (July 2019): 215824401986417. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2158244019864175.

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Given that political events have substantial effect on new economic policies and economic performance of the country, this article aims to examine the behavior of the investors’ sentiment in terms of implied volatility index trailed by the U.S. presidential elections. The study empirically tests whether the presidential elections in 2012/2016 do contain the important market inclusive information to explain the expected stock market volatility. The findings indicate that investors’ concern was distracted around the presidential elections window, albeit the market performed identically in both the presidential election years. The significant fall in the implied volatility level (post-election period) is the calm before the storm, just wait and watch. The positive estimate uncovers the fact that investor worries were higher before the election day. In particular, the significant estimate of the presidential election debate shows that investors do regard the minutes of the presidential election debates in their portfolio selection. At the two elections era, on the candidacy of both the parties, the empirical result speaks marginally contrasting outcomes and falsifies the presidential election cycle hypothesis of past 29 U.S. election years. Empirical estimates conclude that the presidential elections in 2012/2016 have a strong, significant relationship with investor’s sentiment and stock market performance.

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Wahyuningsih, Wahyuningsih, and Deli Nirmala. "Perlocutionary Act of Euphemism in Indonesian Presidential Election Debate 2019." Indonesian Journal of EFL and Linguistics 5, no. 1 (May 28, 2020): 113. http://dx.doi.org/10.21462/ijefl.v5i1.230.

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Presidential election debate attracts public attention toward general election. Through the presidential debate, euphemism is uttered by candidates, and it creates effect to other debaters. This paper is focused on examining effect (perlocutionary act)of euphemism in presidential election debate 2019. The corpus covers the utterances containing euphemism and their responses as the effect produced by the candidates in the prime presidential election debate 2019. The methods used in analyzing data were pragmatics identity method and referential method. The results show that the effect of using euphemism includes verbal perlocutionary act acceptance namely agreement and verbal perlocutionary act refusal includes contradiction, rebuttal, disagreement, denial and criticism. Verbal perlocutionary act acceptance is only expressed by a candidate from the same party as support. However, the verbal perlocutionary act of refusal is expressed by candidates respectively. It indicates that each candidate has different ideology and communication strategy.

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Osuala, A. E., U. A. Onoh, and G. U. Nwansi. "Presidential Election Results and Stock Market Performance: Evidence From Nigeria." Applied Economics and Finance 5, no. 2 (February 9, 2018): 117. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v5i2.3016.

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The study investigates the effect of Presidential election results on the performance of an emerging stock market using the case of the 2011 and 2015 Presidential elections in Nigeria. Adopting Event Study methodology to analyse the secondary data obtained from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and some national dailies, the results of the study suggest that the 2011 presidential election result had negative significant impact on the performance of the stock market. On the other hand, the 2015 Presidential election result had positive but insignificant impact on the stock market as evidenced by the average and cumulative abnormal returns on the event date and one day post-event date- an indication that the result of the 2015 Presidential election was a welcomed development as leadership changed from PDP to All Progressives Congress (APC).

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Sinclair, Betsy, Steven S. Smith, and Patrick D. Tucker. "“It’s Largely a Rigged System”: Voter Confidence and the Winner Effect in 2016." Political Research Quarterly 71, no. 4 (April 21, 2018): 854–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1065912918768006.

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The 2016 presidential election provided a unique opportunity to revisit two competing hypotheses for how voters establish their perceptions of electoral integrity. First, mass public opinion is believed to derive from elite messages. In the 2016 presidential campaign, candidate Donald Trump maintained that the election system was “rigged,” while election administration experts and officials received considerable media coverage in their efforts to counter Trump’s claims. Second, literature on voter confidence has established a “winner effect”—voters who cast ballots for winners are more likely than voters on the losing side to believe their vote was counted correctly. Thus, voters were exposed to two theoretically opposite effects. In this paper, we find that the “winner” effect mitigates the effects from strong pre-election cues from elites. We also show the effect of pre-election attention to the rigging issue, find a symmetry of the election outcome effect for winners and losers, and reconsider our explanations of the winner effect. Finally, we go beyond the existing studies of the winner effect to consider the kind of citizens who are most susceptible to that effect.

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Burmila, Edward M., and Josh M. Ryan. "Reconsidering the “Palin Effect” in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election." Political Research Quarterly 66, no. 4 (October 17, 2013): 952–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1065912913508011.

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Zhao, Xiaofeng, Kartono Liano, and William G. Hardin. "Presidential Election Cycles and the Turn-of-the-Month Effect*." Social Science Quarterly 85, no. 4 (December 2004): 958–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0038-4941.2004.00253.x.

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Mattei, Franco, and Herbert F. Weisberg. "Presidential Succession Effects in Voting." British Journal of Political Science 24, no. 4 (October 1994): 495–516. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400006979.

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Attitudes towards a departing administration can help shape attitudes towards candidates, especially when the incumbent vice-president is one of the candidates. This succession effect was apparent in the 1988 presidential election, when Vice-President Bush benefited from the enduring popularity of retiring President Reagan. This article develops a model in which succession effects, the net candidate score and party identification affect the general election vote. Analysis shows that this effect remains when controls are instituted for retrospective voting more generally. Attitudes towards Reagan also had an indirect impact by affecting the net Bush-Dukakis candidate score; altogether the estimated impact of the Reagan effect in 1988 was to turn the vice-president's predicted loss into his observed victory. Additionally, a succession effect was detected in the 1988 nominating campaign, with Bush's popularity over Dole benefiting from reactions to the Reagan administration. There is evidence of succession effects in other presidential elections, particularly a Johnson effect in 1968.

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Maldonado, Miguel, and Vicenta Sierra. "Twitter Predicting the 2012 US Presidential Election?" Journal of Organizational and End User Computing 28, no. 3 (July 2016): 10–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/joeuc.2016070102.

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Throughout the history of elections, political marketing services have led significant efforts aimed at predicting electoral outcomes as essential evidence to refine campaign tactics. This study develops an analytical procedure based on the Wisdom of Crowds effect and on a supervised approach of text analytics over social media content to predict electoral outcomes. Direct application of this procedure is illustrated analyzing 508,000 tweets about the 2012 US presidential election, obtaining results that consistently predicted President Barack Obama as the victor from seven weeks before the election. The study outperformed several traditional polls and similar studies employing social media to estimate potential election outcomes. This procedure offers an efficient alternative to political marketing services and political campaign staff practitioners interested in developing electoral predictions. Contributions to the field, procedural limitations, additional opportunities for knowledge creation, and research streams derived are introduced.

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Trinugroho, Irwan, Aurio Fajrin, and Sutaryo Sutaryo. "Is the effect of a political event more pronounced for government controlled firms?" Journal of Economics, Business & Accountancy Ventura 19, no. 2 (November 30, 2016): 173. http://dx.doi.org/10.14414/jebav.v19i2.629.

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This study investigates market reaction to a political event, which is the presidential election of Republic of Indonesia in 2014 by studying 387 publicly traded firms in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. It employs event study method to measure the information content of this event. By going deeper, this study looked at the effect difference between government controlled firms (partially privatized firms) and private firms. The results show that there was a significant abnormal return around the event date. The negative abnormal return one day before the election date, which was followed by rebounding one day after the event, indicate that investors consider that the election had been done well particularly with respect to the political stability and security. Moreover, this paper reveals that the effect of presidential election is more pronounced for government-controlled firms than private firms. Government controlled firms may be more susceptible to political event.

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Evelyn, Evelyn, and Sautma Ronni Basana. "EFFECT OF 2008 AND 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN THE INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET." Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan 20, no. 1 (April 3, 2018): 16. http://dx.doi.org/10.9744/jmk.20.1.16-22.

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The U.S. Presidential election was an event that received widespread attention across the globe. In the 2008 presidential campaign, Barrack Obama nominated to be the first black President. In 2016, Hillary Clinton potentially becomes the first woman President in American history, while the other candidate, Donald Trump, made some unpopular and controversial proposals. The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether the 2008 and 2016 election were considered as the relevant information in the Indonesian Stock Market (IDX). The daily closing prices of all all share listed in IDX would be examined used event study method. The results provide insight about the responsiveness of IDX participants to the U.S. Presidential election event that could be used in decision making.

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Efriza, Efriza. "Penguatan Sistem Presidensial Dalam Pemilu Serentak 2019." Jurnal Penelitian Politik 16, no. 1 (June 28, 2019): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.14203/jpp.v16i1.772.

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AbstrakTulisan ini mencoba menjelaskan mengenai dinamika koalisi dalam pemerintahan Presiden Joko Widodo dan sekaligus menjelaskan upaya koalisi dalam pemilu serentak 2019. Tulisan ini menuju pada penjelasan mengenai penerapan sistem presidensial yang dapat dikatakan ada kelemahan karena diterapkannya sistem multipartai. Disamping itu, tulisan ini mengkritisi ketiadaan perubahan besar dari diterapkannya sistem pemilihan umum serentak 2019, yang disebabkan oleh masih diterapkannya presidential threshold dan masih lemahnya pelembagaan partai politik itu sendiri, sehingga pola koalisi yang dibangun oleh kedua pasangan calon presiden tetap bersifat pragmatis semata. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Pemilu Serentak 2019 membawa harapan terjadinya coattail effect, sehingga terjadi peningkatan dukungan politik di legislatif terhadap pemerintahan yang terpilih nantinya. Hal ini menunjukkan terjadinya penguatan terhadap sistem presidensial karena dukungan memadai di legislatif. Kata kunci: pemilu serentak, pemilihan presiden, koalisi, sistem multipartai, dan sistem presidensial

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Gahan, Luke, Michael Ruder, Brian O’Mullane, Nathaniel Watson, and Roy Raymann. "218 BIDEN WON, BUT SLEEP LOST IN THE 2020 US ELECTION." Sleep 44, Supplement_2 (May 1, 2021): A87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sleep/zsab072.217.

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Abstract Introduction The 2020 US Presidential Election captivated the US public resulting in record turnout. In the months preceding the elections COVID-19, racial injustice and the economic downturn had a daily impact on the lives of voters. In this research, we analyze the sleep behavior of Americans in the lead up to the Presidential Elections. We examine specifically the nights of the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Debates and Election Night. Methods We examined sleep data from the PSG-validated SleepScore Mobile Application, which uses a non-contact sonar-based method to objectively capture sleep-related metrics and self-reported lifestyle data. The data set included 123,723 nights (5,967 users residing in the US, aged 18-85, mean age: 46.6 +/- 16.7 years, 52.3% female). Data from September 1st until November 3rd were included. This covered the nights of the Presidential Debates (Tuesday 09/29/2020 and Thursday 10/22/2020) and the Vice-Presidential Debate (Wednesday 10/07/2020). Election night was Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Self-reported stress level (0-24 scale) and alcohol consumption (0-9 drinks) were measured using digital slider scales. Mixed Effect Modelling was used for analysis. Results The night of the 1st Presidential debate saw a change in sleep-related behavior with users going to bed 9.5 minutes later, as compared to a regular Tuesday Night. This resulted in a decrease in both TST (11.5 mins, p<0.001) and TIB (11.8 mins, p<0.001). Interestingly, neither the the 2nd Presidential Debate, nor the Vice Presidential Debate resulted in significant differences in sleep behavior. On election night users went to bed 14.5 (p<0.001) min later on average, as compared to a normal Tuesday Night. This resulted in a decrease in both TIB (24.3 mins, p<0.001) and TST (19.2 mins, p<0.001). Self-report data showed a 13.3% (p<0.001) increase in stress level on election night and 34.4% (p<0.001) increase alcohol consumption Importantly, election night was two nights after the end of Daylight Savings Time (DST), Sunday, November 1st. Conclusion This analysis shows the 2020 US Presidential election negatively impacted US population sleep. The impact was most pronounced on election night, but also observed following the first Presidential debate. The effect of DST on these findings is unknown but surmised to be meaningful. Support (if any):

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Sinha, Pankaj, and Ashok K. Bansal. "HIERARCHICAL BAYES PREDICTION FOR THE 2008 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION." Journal of Prediction Markets 2, no. 3 (December 14, 2012): 47–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v2i3.446.

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In this paper a procedure is developed to derive the predictive density function of a future observation for prediction in a multiple regression model under hierarchical priors for the vector parameter. The derived predictive density function is applied for prediction in a multiple regression model given in Fair (2002) to study the effect of fluctuations in economic variables on voting behavior in U.S. presidential election. Numerical illustrations suggest that the predictive performance of Fair’s model is good under hierarchical Bayes setup, except for the 1992 election. Fair’s model under hierarchical Bayes setup indicates that the forthcoming 2008 US presidential election is likely to be a very close election slightly tilted towards Republicans. It is likely that republicans will get 50.90% vote with probability for win 0.550 in the 2008 US presidential election

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Krumel, Thomas P., and Ali Enami. "Balancing the ticket while appealing to the base." Party Politics 23, no. 5 (September 23, 2015): 498–506. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354068815603625.

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Our paper addresses why a moderate presidential candidate would select an extreme running mate, as was the case in the 2012 US presidential election. To address this question, we designed a one-dimensional policy game in which a moderate challenger uses their vice-presidential candidate as a policy tool to alter the median voter participating in the election. Our main conclusion is that the median voter is altered through a mobilization effect, by increasing own party turnout through the convincing of the more extreme segment of a party to participate in the election, rather than altering the voter’s decision to vote for a particular candidate. This decision function only has a marginal effect on independent voters. Our conclusion is in line with recent empirical advances in the literature and our paper aims to more formally ground these advancements in theory. We developed a set of comparative statics to apply the theory of running mate selection more broadly, germane beyond the case of the 2012 presidential election used to frame this topic. Our model also determines the optimal difference between the platforms of a challenger and their vice-presidential candidate.

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Powell, Gary N., and D. Anthony Butterfield. "Is the “Presidential Image” Reserved for Males? Sex-Role Stereotypes and the 1984 Presidential Election." Psychological Reports 61, no. 2 (October 1987): 491–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1987.61.2.491.

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With the selection of Geraldine Ferraro as a vice presidential candidate and the emergence of the “gender gap” issue in the campaign, the 1984 U.S. presidential election provided a unique opportunity for assessment of the effect of gender on preferences for presidential leadership and perceptions of candidates. 277 college students ( Mdn age: 20 yr.) described a Good President, Good Vice-president, Ronald Reagan, Walter Mondale, George Bush, or Ferraro on the revised Bern Sex-role Inventory shortly before the election. The Good President, Good Vice-president, and all candidates except Mondale were seen as more masculine than feminine. In that Reagan was seen as higher in masculinity and lower in femininity than Mondale, results were confirmed by the outcome of the election. However, Ferraro was the only candidate who fitted the Good President profile in both masculinity and femininity. Men and women differed in their perceptions of Reagan and Mondale, supporting the gender-gap hypothesis.

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Hawley, George. "Attitudes toward Mormons and Voter Behavior in the 2012 Presidential Election." Politics and Religion 8, no. 1 (January 20, 2015): 60–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1755048315000048.

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AbstractPrior to the 2012 presidential election, some commentators speculated that Mitt Romney's status as a devout and active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints would undermine his presidential aspirations. Using the 2012 American National Election Survey, this study examines the relationship between attitudes toward Mormons and voter behavior in the United States in that election year. It finds that attitudes toward Mormons had a statistically-significant effect on turnout — though these effects differed according to party identification. It additionally finds that these attitudes influenced vote choice. In both cases, the substantive effects were small, indicating that anti-Mormon feelings did play a role in the 2012 presidential election, but they did not determine the final outcome.

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Kenski, Kate. "The Palin Effect and Vote Preference in the 2008 Presidential Election." American Behavioral Scientist 54, no. 3 (September 27, 2010): 222–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0002764210381700.

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Gill, Jungyun, and James DeFronzo. "Religion, Rational Political Theory, and the 2008 Presidential Election." Politics and Religion 6, no. 2 (March 5, 2013): 303–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1755048312000673.

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AbstractStates of the United States differ significantly in terms of politically salient religious culture. But prior to the 2008 presidential election several studies inspired by rational political theory that found that during war time voting districts with high rates of military fatalities were more likely to vote against incumbent candidates and for anti-war candidates failed to control for variation in religious culture. In the present study, multivariate analyses that controlled for local differences in religious culture found that Iraq War military fatalities had an overall positive effect on the difference in the percent of the vote received in the 50 states and the District of Columbia by the anti-war Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in the 2008 election and the pre-war Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore in the 2000 election. Tests for interaction, however, also found that the magnitude and ultimately the direction of this effect were conditioned by religious culture. In states with very high percentages of evangelical Protestants, the military fatality rate actually appeared to have a negative effect.

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Minkus, Lara, Emanuel Deutschmann, and Jan Delhey. "A Trump Effect on the EU’s Popularity? The U.S. Presidential Election as a Natural Experiment." Perspectives on Politics 17, no. 02 (October 29, 2018): 399–416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1537592718003262.

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Did the election of Donald Trump affect the popularity of the European Union (EU) in Europe? Theoretically, both a positive rally effect (due to a perceived external threat) and a negative domino effect (due to resignation among Europhiles and/or reinforcement among europhobe nationalists) are plausible. We treat Trump’s unexpected victory as an external shock and use a Eurobarometer survey that was conducted in all EU-28 member states four days prior to (control group) and six days after the election (treatment group) as source material for a natural experiment. The analysis reveals that the election of Trump caused a significant increase in the EU’s popularity in Europe immediately after the election. This “Trump effect” is considerable in size, roughly equivalent to three years of education. Gains in popularity were particularly high among respondents who perceived their country as economically struggling and, surprisingly, among the political right, suggesting that Trump’s victory broadened and ideologically diversified the EU’s base of support.

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Maher, Paul J., Eric R. Igou, and Wijnand A. P. van Tilburg. "Brexit, Trump, and the Polarizing Effect of Disillusionment." Social Psychological and Personality Science 9, no. 2 (January 16, 2018): 205–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1948550617750737.

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We investigate experiences of disillusionment as a source of political polarization. Disillusioning experiences motivate a search for meaning, and we propose that people respond by seeking reassurance in political ideologies, reflected in political polarization. We first tested this hypothesis in the context of two major political events: the European Union (EU) membership referendum in the United Kingdom and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. In Study 1, disillusionment stemming from the EU referendum outcome led “remain” supporters to express more extreme political views. In Study 2, we measured political stance and disillusionment before and after the U.S. presidential election. Political polarization occurred among Clinton supporters, and this was mediated by increased disillusionment levels. In Study 3, we manipulated disillusionment and found that disillusioned participants expressed stronger support for diverging forms of political activism. Consistent with our approach, this effect was mediated by epistemic motivations. Implications regarding the effect of political polarization in society are discussed.

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Holbrook, Thomas M. "Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2012 Presidential Election." PS: Political Science & Politics 45, no. 04 (September 27, 2012): 640–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512000923.

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Although research at other levels of elected office has shown that incumbency has a powerful, additive effect on votes (Hogan 2004; Jacobson 2009; Krebs 1998), these effects largely have been ignored in presidential forecasting models (but see Abramowitz 2008). Instead, some scholars speculate about the conditional effects of incumbency; specifically, the decreased applicability of the retrospective model when the president is not on the ticket leaving the somewhat-harder-to-blame-or-reward vice president to represent the administration. The difficult-to-predict 2000 presidential election generated some discussion on this point. Although I and others argued (Campbell 2001; Holbrook 2001; Wlezien 2001) that part of the explanation for the forecasting error in 2000 lies with Al Gore's failure to embrace the Bill Clinton-Al Gore record and reinforce retrospective voting, others indicate that the retrospective cue may generally be weaker when the president is not on the ticket (Campbell 2001; Lewis-Beck and Tien 2001; Nadeau and Lewis-Beck 2001). Indeed, Campbell (2001; 2008) argues in favor of only giving half weight to presidential performance variables when the vice president, rather than president, is representing the incumbent administration. The logic here is simple: absent the president on the ticket, it is more difficult to frame the election as a referendum, leading voters to attach less weight to incumbency-oriented considerations. This is not to say that factors such as presidential approval and economic performance are unimportant when incumbents do not run, only that these factors might matter less.

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Holzer, Joshua. "The perils of plurality rule and the major(itarian) effect of cabinet composition on human rights in presidential democracies." Research & Politics 5, no. 3 (July 2018): 205316801879475. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2053168018794753.

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I argue that when presidents are able (or forced) to cobble together broad-based coalitions to win an absolute majority, their administrations are less likely (and less able) to violate human rights, in comparison to presidential administrations whose victories are the result of a narrow plurality. Consistent with this argument, I find cabinets comprised of a higher percentage of individuals from parties other than that of the president to be associated with greater government respect for human rights. Additionally, I find that in the years after a presidential election won by an absolute majority, states are more likely to experience an increase in government respect for human rights, in comparison to the years after a presidential election won by a mere plurality. Utilizing an original dataset of cabinet composition for 35 presidential democracies spanning from 2001 to 2011, this study concludes that it may prudent for non-majoritarian systems to consider adopting a mandatory majority rule so to encourage the types of conciliatory alliances that appear to promote high human rights respect.

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Sasada, Hironori. "The Electoral Origin of Japan's Nationalistic Leadership: Primaries in the LDP Presidential Election and the “Pull Effect”." Journal of East Asian Studies 10, no. 1 (April 2010): 1–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1598240800003209.

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In recent years, some Japanese prime ministers have exhibited a nationalistic tendency, particularly in their foreign policies. The increasing nationalistic appeal by recent leaders marks a sharp contrast with previous leaders, who were unwilling to cause friction with other countries and thus took more centrist positions. More interestingly, those recent leaders, including Koizumi Junichiro, previously adopted a more modest stance. This article seeks to explain the increase in nationalistic appeal, particularly between 2001 and 2006, among Japanese leaders by focusing on some important changes in the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP's) presidential election procedures. Drawing on the study of US primary elections, I argue that the increase in the weight of rank-and-filers' votes vis-à-vis the LDP Diet members' votes in the LDP presidential election encouraged some candidates to take more ideologically extreme positions. In other words, much like US primaries, the LDP presidential elections can have a tendency to pull some candidates toward extreme positions.

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Halcoussis, Dennis, Anton D. Lowenberg, and G. Michael Phillips. "An Empirical Test of the Comey Effect on the 2016 Presidential Election." Social Science Quarterly 101, no. 1 (September 23, 2019): 161–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12729.

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ABRAMOWITZ, ALAN I., and WALTER J. STONE. "The Bush Effect: Polarization, Turnout, and Activism in the 2004 Presidential Election." Presidential Studies Quarterly 36, no. 2 (June 2006): 141–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2006.00295.x.

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Osamwonyi, Ifuero Osad, and Osazee G. Omorokunwa. "Presidential Election and Portfolio Selections in the Nigeria Stock Exchange." International Journal of Financial Research 8, no. 4 (September 14, 2017): 184. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v8n4p184.

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This study seeks to investigate the effect of presidential elections on investors’ portfolio selection in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The regression analysis was used to identify the effects that election could have on stock prices in the country, while event study was applied to investigate the focused effects of election event on portfolio selection in the Nigerian stock exchange. Price index for high and medium capitalization stocks were used in the analysis. The study showed that there were low returns performance in the stock market during elections and that elections events have strong (generally) negative effects on abnormal returns for the selected companies in the Nigerian Stock Exchange. In addition, the study showed a negative relationship between the return and risk behaviour of selected companies and election announcement in Nigeria. It is recommended that government and relevant authorities should increase the surveillance of both the market and political system prior to the presidential election in order to curtail the instability during this period.

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Winneg, Kenneth, and Kathleen Hall Jamieson. "Learning From the 2016 U.S. General Election Presidential Debates." American Behavioral Scientist 61, no. 4 (April 2017): 362–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0002764217702770.

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Over four decades of research show that presidential debates make it possible for viewers to learn about the issues and form opinions about the character of the candidates running for office, but whether this long-lived finding would hold true in 2016 was open to doubt. In this article, we draw on panel survey data gathered from viewers of the first and third 2016 general election presidential debates to document across time changes in knowledge of issue positions, beliefs about candidate qualifications and character, and perceptions that, if elected, a candidate would or would not pose a threat to the well-being of the nation. We find that viewers of postdebate coverage of the 2016 general election debates exhibited increased knowledge, but viewing the debates or the postdebate coverage had little effect on assessment of either candidate qualifications or perceptions of whether candidates would threaten the nation’s well-being, if elected.

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Listyaningsih, Erna, Eka Sariningsih, and Ritali Mudrikah. "Stock Market Reaction to Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Election." Binus Business Review 11, no. 2 (July 31, 2020): 91–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.21512/bbr.v11i2.6302.

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The research investigated the reaction to Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) stocks around the Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Election in 2019. It was the first time that the election of the president and legislative assembly was held on the same day in Indonesia. The sample used was 30 stocks of JII. The event study methodology was conducted on this issue. The results show a significant positive abnormal return on the tenth day before the event and the seventh day after the event. From the liquidity, it is found that this event has a strong effect on Trading Volume Activity (TVA) of JII stocks surrounding the event. Additionally, another liquidity proxy, namely bid-ask spread, has the same result by experiencing a significant positive difference before and after the event. These results indicate that the information on the event is sufficient to influence the price, TVA, and size of the bid-ask spread of JII stock.

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Hyde, Susan D. "The Observer Effect in International Politics: Evidence from a Natural Experiment." World Politics 60, no. 1 (October 2007): 37–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wp.0.0001.

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By pressuring governments to hold democratic elections and by becoming directly involved in the electoral process through technical assistance and funding or as election monitors, international actors now play a visible role in domestic elections and other democratic processes throughout the developing world. Although scholars have documented several macrolevel relationships between international-level variables and movement toward democracy, there has been little attention paid to the microlevel effects of international involvement in the democratization process. This article examines the effects of international election observation as a prominent form of international involvement in domestic elections and exploits a natural experiment in order to test whether international observers reduce election fraud. Using data from the 2003 presidential elections in Armenia, the article demonstrates that although observers may not eliminate election fraud, they can reduce election-day fraud at the polling stations they visit. The unusual advantage of experiment-like conditions for this study offers unique causal evidence that international actors can have direct, measurable effects on the level of election-day fraud and, by extension, on the democratization process.

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Bowes, David R. "Stock Market Volatility And Presidential Election Uncertainty: Evidence From Political Futures Markets." Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) 34, no. 1 (December 29, 2017): 143–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v34i1.10105.

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Uncertainty about the economy can increase volatility in financial market returns. One potential source of uncertainty is the outcome of an upcoming national election. This paper uses a GARCH model to estimate the effect of uncertainty surrounding U.S. Presidential elections on the volatility of U.S. stock market returns from 1992-2012. Uncertainty in these elections is measured using asset prices from the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), an on-line futures market based on real-world events, including U.S. elections. The empirical results show that the conditional variance in S&P 500 returns increases when IEM presidential election futures market asset prices indicate greater uncertainty about the outcome of an upcoming election.

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Hyde, Susan D. "Experimenting in Democracy Promotion: International Observers and the 2004 Presidential Elections in Indonesia." Perspectives on Politics 8, no. 2 (June 2010): 511–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1537592710001222.

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Randomized field experiments have gained attention within the social sciences and the field of democracy promotion as an influential tool for causal inference and a potentially powerful method of impact evaluation. With an eye toward facilitating field experimentation in democracy promotion, I present the first field-experimental study of international election monitoring, which should be of interest to both practitioners and academics. I discuss field experiments as a promising method for evaluating the effects of democracy assistance programs. Applied to the 2004 presidential elections in Indonesia, the random assignment of international election observers reveals that even though the election was widely regarded as democratic, the presence of observers had a measurable effect on votes cast for the incumbent candidate, indicating that such democracy assistance can influence election quality even in the absence of blatant election-day fraud.

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Matti, Emanuel. "Austrian Constitutional Court: Presidential Election – Counterevidence and Influence of New Media." ICL Journal 11, no. 1 (May 1, 2017): 123–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/icl-2017-0011.

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Abstract In the course of the annulment of the run-off election of the Federal President by the Austrian Constitutional Court in 2016 formal unlawfulness became evident. This contribution argues that the Constitutional Court did not sufficiently consider if the proven illegalities actually had an effect on the election result. Furthermore, it discusses if the jurisprudence concerning electoral freedom needs to be interpreted more extensively in times of new media.

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Shore, Felice S., and Linda L. Cooper. "Map the Race to the White House." Mathematics Teaching in the Middle School 16, no. 3 (October 2010): 162–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5951/mtms.16.3.0162.

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Chang Woo-Young and Han Woo PARK. "The Characteristics and Effect of Web-Campaign - The Case of 17th Presidential Election -." Discourse 201 12, no. 2 (August 2009): 77–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.17789/discou.2009.12.2.004.

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Kim, Joonchol. "Newspaper's Framing Effect on Voter's Decision - Case Study of the 17th Presidential Election." Journal of Parliamentary Research 10, no. 1 (June 30, 2015): 93–120. http://dx.doi.org/10.18808/jopr.2015.1.4.

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Doherty, Kathleen M., David E. Lewis, and Scott Limbocker. "Presidential Control and Turnover in Regulatory Personnel." Administration & Society 51, no. 10 (September 18, 2019): 1606–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0095399719875458.

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Career executives often occupy administrative positions that determine the pace and content of policy, such as those responsible for developing regulations. Yet, presidential administrations need control over these positions to achieve policy aims. This article considers the extent to which new presidential administrations marginalize career executives in key regulatory positions by transferring responsibilities to another individual and whether the mere expectation of political conflict with a new administration drives career regulators from their positions. Using unique new data on 866 career regulators that led major rulemaking efforts between 1995 and 2013, we demonstrate that turnover among career executives in key regulatory positions increases following a party change in the White House. Turnover also increases during a presidential election year, but this effect is conditioned by bureaucrats’ expectations of the election outcome. Finally, career executives are more likely to depart in response to favorable labor market conditions. Given our findings that turnover in regulatory responsibilities is driven both by presidential marginalization and strategic exit by bureaucrats, we conclude with implications for presidential efforts to control the administrative state.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Coattail Effect of Presidential Election'

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