Academic literature on the topic 'Coffin lid'

The colored stone coffin lids are exposed to many different deterioration factors, whether in the burial or exposure environment. In the burial environment, these colored coffin lids are subjected to the pressure of soil sediments, which leads to their being crushed into parts, especially since the case study is made of limestone. In the soil, caused by the presence of ground water, which leads to the crystallization of salts and the growth of microorganisms. Also, false excavation of these colored stone coffins lids and their transfer from equilibrium in the burial environment to the exposure environment leads to exposing to other pressures and may lead to irreversible damage and loss of color, as the temperature difference in the exposure environment and burial environment will lead to fissures and cracks as well. Crystallization of salts in the case of high temperature, as well as the difference in relative humidity levels, will lead to the dissolution of the color-bonding material and the dissolution of the air pollution gases, which leads to the formation of acids that interact with the material of these stone coffins lids to form water-soluble compounds, which leads in the end to the loss and deterioration of them. The selected object of study is a colored stone coffin lid no. 1939, broken into several parts of limestone (about 13 parts), dated to the Late Period and saved in Atifyah museum store – Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities- Giza – Egypt, samples were taken from limestone, red and black pigments and examined by optical microscope, polarizing microscope and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) also analyzed by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD). The restoration processes are summarized in cleaning, consolidation, assembling and loss- compensation for the selected colored stone coffin lid.

Block lifting is a key step in stabilizing and removing fragile remains at archaeological excavation sites. Due to its favorable working properties and adhesive effect, menthol has recently been proposed as a volatile binding medium for temporary consolidation in archaeological conservation. This paper presents a case study on the use of menthol in the extraction and restoration of a large wooden coffin lid, approximately 1.9 m long and 0.9 m wide, from tomb 11 (M11) at Xie’ertala, located east of a Xie’ertala town in Hailar City, Inner Mongolia, dating to the 7th to 10th centuries CE. This coffin lid had fragmented into numerous wooden pieces, and was preserved in a relatively arid steppe environment, necessitating the extraction of the lid as a consolidated block. The use of menthol for consolidating and lifting the highly fragmented wooden coffin lid was intended to preserve critical archaeological information while avoiding damage to the underlying objects. An analysis of the physicochemical properties of these wooden remains suggests that the timber used for the coffin lid belongs to a common pine species from the Hulunbuir region. The degradation of the coffin lid was relatively mild, as shown by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) results. Dynamic Vapor Sorption (DVS) tests indicated that the hygroscopicity of the archaeological wood was 23.4%, compared to 21.1% for the reference sample, demonstrating good environmental stability. The safety of menthol as a treatment for fragile wooden remains was evaluated by comparing changes in the morphological and porosity characteristics of the coffin lid before and after menthol treatment. After treatment, the widths of the fissures remained largely unchanged, with all relative variations being less than 1%, and the porosity as well as pore size distribution of the wood showed negligible changes. Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) results showed that only 0.6% of menthol residue remained after 8 days of sublimation. This pilot study demonstrates that menthol is a safe temporary consolidant for block lifting and offers a promising alternative to the widely used cyclododecane. In conclusion, this research provided a new approach for conservators to safely lift similarly large and fragile wood remains during archaeological excavations.

The subject of this paper is the analysis of funerary assemblage of Nesmut, the Egyptian priestess of the 21st Dynasty (her titles are “Mistress of the House, Chantress of Amun, king of the gods”). The burial of Nesmut was discovered in 1891 in the so-called “Second Cache” at Deir al-Bahri, also known as Bāb el-Gusūs (set no. A.48). Inventory that was discovered on the mummy: leather mummy braces, three “napkins”, linen gloves, shale heart scarab, and wax images of the sons of Horus. Inventory that was found near or inside of the coffin: two shabti-boxes, shabtis. Nesmut’s mummy cover is located in the Museum of Antiquities in Cairo (Cairo CG 6007). Her coffin is currently stored in the Odesa Archaeological Museum (OAM) of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (inv. no. 71695). It was part of the so-called Lot VI presented to Russian Empire by Egyptian government in 1893. In 1895, the coffin of Nesmut was sent from Odesa to the Archaeological Museum of St. Volodymyr Kyiv University. In 1959 the coffin of Nesmut was among other objects that were transferred from the State Republican Historical Museum in Kyiv to the OAM. The lid of the coffin with inv. no. OAM 71695 differs in design style from the trunk and has an earlier dating. Structurally, the lid has retained traces of technological processing and fitting the trunk of the later coffin of its namesake. Accordingly, there were two Nesmuts, whose funerary objects were discovered in Bāb el-Gusūs. The burial of Nesmut (II) corresponds to the set no. A.48 by Daressy and it is linked with the coffin trunk no. OAM 71695. Separate objects from Nesmut’s (I) grave goods were adapted for later burials: the lid of her inner coffin was used for the Odesa coffin of Nesmut (II), and the lid of the outer coffin might have been adapted for an anonymous burial from Bāb el-Gusūs set no. A.54 (Swiss lot IX, Neuchâtel, Musée d’Ethnographie, inv. no. Eg. 184) on which the name “Nesmut” preserved in one segment of the lid. The burial of Nesmut was also equipped with two different types of shabtis. It is possible that like the lid of the coffin, part of the shabtis was “usurped” by Nesmut (II) and previously belonged to the burial of her namesake and probably relative, Nesmut (I). It is quite probable, that they were reused and adopted for the burial of new owner together with the shabti-box, since the two of them were found in the set no. A.48. This may prove that during the 21st Dynasty, not only large objects, but also small items of grave goods could be reused.

The coffin of Nefer-renepet was donated to the National Museum in Belgrade by Ernest Brummer (born in Sombor in 1881) in 1921. The coffin is a fine example of the artistry of the funerary industry of ancient Akhmim. Previous publications have classified this object as belonging to the 22nd-25th Dynasty or Ptolemaic period. The present analysis indicates that it dates to the period of the mid-4th century B.C., i.e. 30th Dynasty, based on stylistic comparisons, orthography and genealogical information from similar coffins in other collections. This stylistic/chronological phase is not well-represented numerically, and this makes Nefer-renepet’s coffin all the more important. The design characteristics of the phase broadly emulate those of the 26th Dynasty, but they are clearly distinguishable as belonging to a later era. Among the many distinctive aspects of Nefer-renepet’s coffin is the interior decoration of its lid, published here for the first time, showing the ‘gliding Nut motif with upward streaming hair’ accompanied by abbreviated texts derived from the Book of Day and Book of Night. The goddess represented on the coffin trough is Imentet, with the maat-feather on her head as a reduction of the full hieroglyphic symbol for West.

The anthropoid wooden coffin with plinth (L. 183.5 cm), datable to the mid–4th century B.C. (30th Dynasty), names Nefer-renepet, a dancer of Min from Akhmim. This object represents one of the artistically and technically superior coffins produced by Late Period Egyptian coffin workshops. It was formerly part of the Amherst collection, and was purchased by Ernest Brummer at a Sotheby, Wilkinson & Hodge auction in London in 1921, then donated the same year to the National Museum in Belgrade. The interior of the lid is distinguished by a remarkable ‘gliding Nut motif with upward streaming hair’ (an extremely important iconographic element) while the interior of the trough is dominated by a line drawing of Imentet wearing a diagonallyveined maat-feather on her head. The interior decoration includes inscriptions written on the side facets. Written hastily in whitish-yellow line on a rough ground of thick black pigment (in contrast to the fine outer decoration of the coffin) these barely legible Stundenwachen texts, are nonetheless significant, and are to be identified as abbreviated texts derived from the Book of Day and Book of Night. They are a manifestation of Late Period magical symbolism stemming from New Kingdom funerary compositions. Their presence on the coffin, however hurried, was intended to ease Nefer-renepet’s passage through the netherworld. Since 1992 the coffin of Nefer-renepet is kept in the Archaeological Collection of the Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade.

This paper aims to document the conservation processes of a polychrome wooden coffin in the Dahshur archaeological area dating back to the late period. The exterior part of the coffin is decorated with a painted layer. Visual observation, 2D Program, and Optical Microscopy (OM) were used. wood identification. The coffin was in a bad condition. It was covered with a thick layer of dust, losing parts of the painted and gesso layers, as well as other parts of these layers, were lost. Some parts were missing from the head area of the lid coffin. The conservation processes of the wooden coffin included mechanical and chemical cleaning, reattachment of the separated parts of the ground layer and painted layers, filling the edge of the painted layer, and consolidating the painted layer. The conservation process included mechanical cleaning using soft brushes, chemical cleaning using ethyl alcohol and distilled water for painting, stabilization of the separated gesso layer using Paraloid B72, filling cracks of the gesso layers using glass microballoon with Paraloid B72 and consolidating the painted layer with calcium oxide nanoparticles with Klucel G (hydroxypropyl cellulose) 0. 5%

According to the Graeco-Roman zodiacs, the appearance of the full moon on the day of the autumnal equinox signified the moment in the astral myth of Osiris when the god was resurrected. The paper argues that the concise version of the hour vigil on the interior surface of the lid of Peftjauneith’s coffin refers to the same mythical episode. Similarly to a few other coffins of the 26th dynasty, Peftjauneith’s composition includes a short exhortative text, a visual list of the hour goddesses, together with their names (twelve for the day, and twelve for the night), and the figure of Nut who is unusually depicted as swallowing the sun and giving birth to the moon. The even distribution of the hours points to the equinox, while the juxtaposition of the sun and the moon captures the rising of the full lunar disc. The whole scene thus refers to a detail of the hour vigil not documented elsewhere, namely, that it was ideally performed when the full moon coincided with the day of the equinox. With its setup, the hour vigil of Osiris on Peftjauneith’s coffin is a forerunner of the later Graeco-Roman zodiacs.

This research studied the thermal fatigue life for eutectic solder balls of thermally enhanced flip-chip plastic ball grid array (FC-PBGA) packages with different lid materials under thermal cycling tests. Three FC-PBGA packages with different lid materials, i.e., Al, AlSiC, and Cu, were utilized to examine the lid material effect on solder ball reliability. The cyclic stress/strain behavior for the packages was estimated by using the nonlinear finite element method. The eutectic solder was assumed to be elastic-plastic-creep. The stable stress/strain results obtained from FEM analysis were utilized to predict the thermal fatigue life of solder balls by using the Coffin-Manson prediction model. Simulation results showed that the fatigue life of the FC-PBGA package with a Cu lid was much shorter than FC-PBGA packages with other lid materials. The relatively shorter fatigue life for the FC-PBGA package with a Cu lid was due to the complex constrained behavior caused by the thermal mismatch between the lid, substrate and the printed circuit board. The difference was insignificant in the fatigue lives between the package with an Al lid and the conventional package.

In 1932–1933, a shaft tomb with several funerary ensembles of a family of Late Period priests of Montu was found on the Upper Terrace of the Temple of Hatshepsut at Deir el-Bahari. Among them was the Qrsw-coffin of Nes(pa)qashuty, which is the first coffin to date containing a version of the Rituals of the Hours of the Day and the Night with excerpts from the daily hymns to the sun-god on the inner vault of the lid. The texts for the Ritual of the Hours of the Day, written in cursive hieroglyphs, are here represented as standard hieroglyphs, with destroyed or illegible parts supplemented, followed by comments and translations. The coffin contains three hymns unknown from other sources. Finally, there are some remarks on the transmission of this important text in general and on the series of private funerary texts divided into 24 hours and representing their corresponding deities.

The first major history of the American glider pilots, the forgotten heroes of World War II, by aNew York Timesbestselling author. A story of no guns, no engines and no second chances. This book distills war down to individual young men climbing into defenseless gliders made of plywood, ready to trust the towing aircraft that would pull them into enemy territory by a cable wrapped with telephone wire. Based on their after-action reports, journals, oral histories, and letters home, this book reveals every terrifying minute of their missions. They were all volunteers, for a specialized duty that their own government projected would have a 50 percent casualty rate. None faltered. In every major European invasion of the war they led the way. They landed their gliders ahead of the troops who stormed Omaha Beach, and sometimes miles ahead of the paratroopers bound for the far side of the Rhine River in Germany itself. From there, they had to hold their positions. They delivered medical teams, supplies and gasoline to troops surrounded in the Battle of the Bulge, ahead even of Patton's famous supply truck convoy. These all-volunteer glider pilots played a pivotal role in liberating the West from tyranny, from the day the Allies invaded Occupied Europe to the day Germany finally surrendered. Yet the story of these anonymous heroes is virtually unknown. Here it is told in full – a story which epitomizes courage and sacrifice.

Let the melodies of the truth be made abundant.—Ephrem the Syrian Hymns on FaithFOR THE SECOND procession, a number of young men, strikingly dressed in military uniform, carry the coffin. The military uniform does not represent a modern costume for the Roman soldiers who crucified Jesus; it is a real-life daily attire for those men. Some will have been recently drafted into mandatory military service but will have obtained permission to celebrate Easter at home. They carry the coffin to earn a blessing in the form of protection from life-threatening dangers associated with being in the military. This is 2007. Urfallis say that ominous associations with military service are no longer immediate; yet “one never knows” what might happen in the army, I am told. As those men would be the first to fight should war break out, they seek the blessing of this special event when it coincides with their time in service, which is traditionally an emotionally difficult time for the young men and their families, particularly the mothers. Seeking blessing from the symbolic shrouded body of Christ in liturgical drama represents belief in the transcendence of divine blessings. While embodied in symbols of death, Christ’s blessing extends to protecting the lives of those in whose obligations death is conceivable. Less than a decade later, many a flower-covered coffin would carry the picture of a young man in military uniform, right where the shrouded cross is laid on ...

AbstractIn Tanzania, about 90% of the banana-coffee-based farming systems lie in the hands of smallholder farmer families. In these systems, smallholder farmers traditionally add farm waste to crop fields, making soils rich in organic matter (humus) and plant-available nutrients. Correspondingly, soils remained fertile during cultivation for over a century. Since the 1960s, the increasing demand for food and biofuels of a growing population has resulted in an overuse of these farming systems, which has occurred in tandem with deforestation, omitted fallows, declined farm size, and soil erosion. Hence, humus and nutrient contents in soils have decreased and soils gradually degraded. Inadequate use of farm waste has led to a further reduction in soil fertility, as less organic material is added to the soils for nutrient supply than is removed during harvesting. Acknowledging that the traditional use of farm waste successfully built up soil fertility over a century and has been reduced in only a few decades, we argue that traditional composting practices can play a key role in rebuilding soil fertility, if such practices are adapted to face the modern challenges. In this chapter, we discuss two cases in Tanzania: one on the traditional use of compost in the Kagera region (Great African Rift Valley) and another about adapted practices to produce compost manure in the Morogoro region (Uluguru Mountains). Both cases refer to rainfed, smallholder banana-coffee-based farming systems. To conclude, optimised composting practices enable the replenishment of soil nutrients, increase the capacity of soils to store plant-available nutrients and water and thus, enhance soil fertility and food production in degraded banana-coffee-based farming systems. We further conclude that future research is needed on a) nutrient cycling in farms implementing different composting practices and on b) socio-economic analyses of farm households that do not successfully restore soil fertility through composting.

AbstractThis chapter outlines the activities in the Wildeman neighborhood in Amsterdam, undertaken within the context of the New European Bauhaus project Desire by two organizations, Samenwonen-Samenleven and The Beach. It starts by describing the local context, including new policies and developments that are taking place. The main challenges are identified. Firstly, there is a lack of trust and feeling of community. Inhabitants are not being involved and do not feel ownership in the developments happening in their neighborhood. Additionally, existing community activities and services are fragmented. Several activities that attempt to deal with these challenges are then discussed. These activities include integration of and reflection on the methodologies of the two participating organizations, engagement and organization of informal networks, and the creation of Design- and Do-groups (Ontwerpen Doe groepen). These groups composed of residents, focused on designing and implementing interventions to improve the area. Each group took on a specific topic: community gardens, youth education & media, healthy relationism, circular waste processing, local coffee & tea distribution, and circular street fashion. Lastly, the results and learnings from this process are presented.

Abstract As the Dutch and English battled at home and abroad, the major trade commodities also underwent a dramatic shift. Changes in tastes and political climates in Europe caused the profitability of the spices to fall precipitously. This led the VOC and the EIC to seek new markets including cotton, coffee, opium and tea. It was in the middle of the seventeenth century that European interest in spices began to wane. In fact, there was an oversupply of pepper by mid-century, which dropped prices by about 40% compared with that which the Portuguese and then the VOC had long been able to maintain (Lunde, 2005). After a peak of seven million kilograms of pepper imported in 1670, levels fell to about three-and-a-half million kilograms in 1688 (Krondle, 2007). Pepper had lost its status as an exotic luxury in Europe and was now more or less a mundane commodity. The other spices held their high status longer, but they too began to lose their glow by the end of the seventeenth century.

AbstractHong Kong has a dual land regime in the urban and rural territories. The urban areas on both sides of Victoria Harbour (8.8% of land, excluding Country Parks on Hong Kong Island) and new towns (about 15.3% of land) house over 90% of the city’s population (about 7.5 million) with an extremely high population density of about 26,000 per km2. After deducting Country Parks and Special Areas (about 40% of land), the rest of the rural New Territories (traditional settlements leased by the British Government in 1898 for 99 years) constitutes about 35% of land, but houses 5.5% of all residents with a substantially lower population density of about 1,000 per km2. China’s Open Door Policy since 1978 has led to economic restructuring in Hong Kong, changing its occupational structure, intensifying income inequality, and leading to socio-economic and spatial segregation. Whilst the affluent classes continue to concentrate in traditionally central locations in urban areas, or in luxurious residential enclaves in rural New Territories, the less well-off tend to be marginalised and live in remote new towns or rural New Territories. The latter is also a result of a skewed power relationship between the government and the property sector in directing spatial development that breeds a hegemonic (dis)course and regime of urban-biased and property-dominant development, sustaining the government’s coffer through a high land price policy.

AbstractThis chapter adopts a desktop review of diverse literature to understand the legal, cultural and religious underpinning of sustainable soil governance in Africa. The role of traditional knowledge systems in achieving sustainable soil governance in Africa will also be evaluated. The African Union recognises five geographic regions on the continent namely, North, South, West, East and Central. A sixth region consisting of people of African descent living outside the continent is also categorized but it is not materially relevant for the present analysis. The countries highlighted in this chapter are only used representatively of the entire continent to the extent possible. Africa is a large continent with diverse traditions, cultures and religions upon which the legal systems responsible for natural resources and environmental protection are anchored. It is therefore impossible to discuss any issue pertinent to the continent with homogeneity. Africa is no doubt one of the most resource-abundant continents. Natural resources such as gold, diamond, oil, natural gas, copper, uranium, among others are mined in different parts of the continent. Almost every country in Africa has a deposit of natural resources because the continent is endowed with about 97% of the world’s chromium, 90% of the world’s cobalt, 85% of the word’s platinum, 70% of the world’s cocoa, and 60% of the world’s coffee. Despite this abundance of natural resources, Africa is also among the poorest continents. One of the factors that has led to the continent’s extreme poverty levels is that the extraction of land or soil based natural resources is minimally utilised to the benefit of the African countries themselves. The process of natural resources extraction causes immense damage primarily to land and soil as well as the general environment. Against this background, this chapter assesses how culture, traditional norms and religion have shaped sustainable soil governance in Africa.

Abstract When Carter’s friends finally worked out an agreement with the Antiquities Service so Carter could return to work, he had a very difficult logistical task ahead of him: he had to raise and separate the three nested coffins still inside the sarcophagus. Gallons of sacred oils had been poured on them at the time of burial and now were congealed, so the coffins were firmly stuck together. As the team worked on separating the coffins, they couldn’t figure out why they were so heavy (as it turned out, the innermost coffin was solid gold and weighed nearly 250 pounds), which made things even more difficult. This chapter describes the ingenious method of pulleys, Primus lamps, and other means Carter used to successfully extract the coffins. Once the coffins were out of the sarcophagus, the lid of the innermost gold coffin was raised, revealing the mummy of Tutankhamun. The chapter ends with a detailed description of the mummy and Dr. Douglas Derry’s autopsy, during which he literally tore the mummy to pieces. However, much was still learned from this autopsy, including that Tutankhamun was a boy-king.

Во время работ 2019 г. на Восточном некрополе Фанагории в богатом двухкамерном склепе найдены золотые индикации и имитации монет. Они обнаружены в пяти гробах обеих камер грунтовой усыпальницы. Все индикации и имитации монет из склепа 315/2019 были использованы при погребении в качестве «обола Харона». При этом четыре из пяти предметов во время погребальной церемонии находились во рту умерших, пре имущественно за правой щекой. В одном случае достоверно установлено, что «монета» была вложена под нижнюю губу над подбородком человека. И только один предмет найден на животе, вероятно, он был спрятан в кошельке. Для трех из пяти золотых «монет» удалось определить патрицы. Одна, происходящая из гроба 4 северной камеры, оттиснута с аверса монеты Констанция II (351–361 гг. н. э.). Вторая индикация из гроба 1 южной камеры оттиснута с реверса бронзовой монеты Прокопия (365–366 гг.).Обе монеты были отчеканены на монетном дворе Константинополя. Индикация из гроба 7 южной камеры была оттиснута с римской бронзовой монеты 4 в. н. э. Все индикации, безусловно, изготавливались в местной мастерской с монет, обращавшихся на денежном рынке города, в связи с чем эта категория предметов рассматривается в общем контексте с находками синхронных монет. Еще две находки из склепа относятся к имитациям монет. Поскольку в большинстве случаев оттиски синхронны обращавшимся монетам-патрицам, они играют важнейшую роль в определении хронологии погребальных комплексов. В рассматриваемой гробнице датировка нумизматического материала органично дополняет хронологические позиции других категорий погребального инвентаря и позволяет говорить, что захоронения, обнаруженные в двухкамерном склепе, были совершены в последней трети 4 в. – после 366 г. н. э In the 2019 field season, a number of gold danakes and imitations of coins were found in a rich two-chamber tomb in the East Necropolis of Phanagoria. They come from five coffins arranged in both chambers. All the danakes and imitations from tomb 315/2019 were used as ‘Charon’s obol’. Four of the five objects were placed in the dead persons’ mouth by the right cheek. In one case ‘the coin’ was arranged under the lower lip over the chin. Only one object was found upon the stomach, possibly hidden in the dress. For three of the five ‘gold coins’ found it is possible to identify their architypes. The danake from coffin 4 in the north chamber is stamped from the obverse of the coin of Constantius II (A. D. 351–361). The second danake from coffin 1 of the south chamber is impressed from the reverse of the bronze coin of Procopius (A. D. 365–366). Both coins were produced by the Constantinople mint. The danake from coffin 7 of the south chamber is impressed from the obverse of a 4th-century Roman bronze coin. All the danakes were doubtlessly made in a local workshop from locally circulated coins. The other two finds from the tomb are imitations of coins. Along with the other grave-goods, all these finds indicate that the burials in the tomb date from the last third of the fourth century, after 366 A. D. Phanagoria, necropolis, tomb, funeral rites, Charon’s obol, gold danakes

"The aim of this work is to compare the environmental impact of three different packaging systems for coffee capsules, which can be used in the same coffee machine. A comparative Life Cycle Assessment has been performed considering the following three types of coffee capsules: 1. Compostable coffee capsules packaged into a multichamber PET tray. 2. Capsules made of aluminium and packaged into cardboard boxes. 3. Capsules made of polypropylene with an aluminium top lid, singularly packaged in modified atmosphere into a bag made of multilayer film of aluminium and polypropylene. The functional unit considered is a coffee capsule. To evaluate the environmental impact, the EPD (Environmental Product Declaration) method is used. This work shows that it is possible to reduce the environmental impact of compostable capsules packaged in PET tray by two ways: by using a less polluting starch polymer and by producing biogas instead of compost from the organic waste. With these improvements, the compostable coffee capsule in PET tray results the less damaging packaging system for all categories except than for the ozone layer depletion and the fossil fuels depletion."

Abstract One feature of creep fatigue data is the large amount of scatter present, even for test specimens taken from the same heat of material and tested under nominally identical conditions. This has led to considerable discrepancies between methods proposed during the last 40 years for fatigue life prediction of high temperature components. Presently, there is no general agreement on optimum approaches. The inadequacy of the Manson-Coffin law for high temperature use is discussed. The frequency modified fatigue life model and the strain range partitioning method, two popular extensions of the Manson-Coffin law for high temperature use, are studied. Major differences in terms of mechanistic interpretations and mathematical formulations between these two models are investigated. Also, difficulties in the realistic application of these methods are studied and some simplified solutions are proposed. The time-dependent damage rule of the ASME Boilerand Pressure Vessel Code is studied for its application to notched components and issues such as creep rupture under compressive stress, creep rupture time of notched components, and cyclic creep rupture curves vs. static creep rupture curves are discussed. Difficulties in the calculation of the time fraction term of this method are investigated for notched components and a simplified solution is proposed.

Sustainability has been the emphasis of intense discussion over recent decades, but mostly focused on addressing critical aspects of environmental issues. An increasing awareness of social responsibilities and ever-shifting customer requirements have led manufacturers to consider social sustainability during the design phase in tandem with addressing environmental concerns; thus, design for social sustainability has evolved as a new product design direction. Modular product design (MPD), has been widely used in both academia and industry because of its significant benefits in design engineering. Because of the potential synergy, investigating design for social sustainability in association with MPD holds promise as a field of investigation. In this paper, we introduce a novel MPD approach that uses the elements of key component specification and product impact on social sustainability. The key components carry core technologies or have the highest sustainability effects in a product (i.e., the most costly or environmentally polluting parts). Product competitiveness strongly relies on a few key components that should be a focal point during product development. However, to the best of our knowledge, key components have not been well addressed in modular product design. In this paper, we employ labor time as an indicator to measure social sustainability. A heuristic-based clustering algorithm with labor time optimization is developed to categorize components into modules. A coffee-maker case study is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.

El Manglito was a community in Baja California Sur, Mexico, that was turning into a cesspool for all the communities surrounding it. About 15 years ago, an NGO NOS brought in biologists and environmental scientists to work with the community. NOS took steps to clean up community by removing waste and and implementing sustainable fishing practices. 15 years later, a sharp increase in cartel violence was reported. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, cartel violence inward into Mexico has both increased and diversified. With border closures negatively affecting the cartel’s economy, they have turned to different forms of income generation, including extortion of local communities. The Corioli Institute team approached the El Manglito community to explore a potential collaboration that took shape as a trust building exercise. We went in with an open and participatory approach to engage with the community, informing them of our research capabilities, understanding their needs and desires, and asking what would be most useful for them. The community were keen on building intergenerational cohesion, with the older generation expressing a desire to foster a sense of belonging for the young people within the community. One of the primary drivers of youth participation in cartels within the community was a lack of belonging within the community, which children and yoth sought within the cartels. Engaging with children and youth, we elected to produce a coffee table book. Our team led a series of workshops, brought in consultants, and funded the production of the coffee table book for the community. The final book was a resounding success and is being put into libraries across Mexico. The novel participatory, receptive, collaborative approach to trust building and social cohesion within the El Manglito community resulted in a strong sense of identity, efficacy, and pride among the youth of the community.

Background to the topic: For food safety and security reasons, hundreds of pesticides, veterinary drugs, and environmental pollutants should be monitored in the food supply, but current methods are too time-consuming, laborious, and expensive. As a result, only a tiny fraction of the food is tested for a limited number of contaminants. Original proposal objectives: Our main original goal was to develop fast, practical, and effective new approaches for the analysis of hazardous chemicals in the food supply. We proposed to extend the QuEChERS approach to more pesticides, veterinary drugs and pollutants, further develop GC-MS and LC-MS with SMB and combine QuEChERS with GC-SMB-MS and LC-SMB-EI-MS to provide the “ultimate” approach for the analysis of hazardous chemicals in food. Major conclusions, solutions and achievements: The original QuEChERS method was validated for more than 200 pesticide residues in a variety of food crops. For the few basic pesticides for which the method gave lower recoveries, an extensive solvent suitability study was conducted, and a buffering modification was made to improve results for difficult analytes. Furthermore, evaluation of the QuEChERS approach for fatty matrices, including olives and its oil, was performed. The QuEChERS concept was also extended to acrylamide analysis in foods. Other advanced techniques to improve speed, ease, and effectiveness of chemical residue analysis were also successfully developed and/or evaluated, which include: a simple and inexpensive solvent-in-silicone-tube extraction approach for highly sensitive detection of nonpolar pesticides in GC; ruggedness testing of low-pressure GC-MS for 3-fold faster separations; optimization and extensive evaluation of analyte protectants in GC-MS; and use of prototypical commercial automated direct sample introduction devices for GC-MS. GC-MS with SMB was further developed and combined with the Varian 1200 GCMS/ MS system, resulting in a new type of GC-MS with advanced capabilities. Careful attention was given to the subject of GC-MS sensitivity and its LOD for difficult to analyze samples such as thermally labile pesticides or those with weak or no molecular ions, and record low LOD were demonstrated and discussed. The new approach of electron ionization LC-MS with SMB was developed, its key components of sample vaporization nozzle and flythrough ion source were improved and was evaluated with a range of samples, including carbamate pesticides. A new method and software based on IAA were developed and tested on a range of pesticides in agricultural matrices. This IAA method and software in combination with GC-MS and SMB provide extremely high confidence in sample identification. A new type of comprehensive GCxGC (based on flow modulation) was uniquely combined with GC-MS with SMB, and we demonstrated improved pesticide separation and identification in complex agricultural matrices using this novel approach. An improved device for aroma sample collection and introduction (SnifProbe) was further developed and favorably compared with SPME for coffee aroma sampling. Implications, both scientific and agricultural: We succeeded in achieving significant improvements in the analysis of hazardous chemicals in the food supply, from easy sample preparation approaches, through sample analysis by advanced new types of GC-MS and LCMS techniques, all the way to improved data analysis by lowering LOD and providing greater confidence in chemical identification. As a result, the combination of the QuEChERS approach, new and superior instrumentation, and the novel monitoring methods that were developed will enable vastly reduced time and cost of analysis, increased analytical scope, and a higher monitoring rate. This provides better enforcement, an added impetus for farmers to use good agricultural practices, improved food safety and security, increased trade, and greater consumer confidence in the food supply.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This case study describes how a sustained NGO-company partnership led to the coffee industry’s first sustainability standard. This case study is part of a broader analysis on key lessons women’s health advocates can learn from the environmental movement on effective strategies for driving changes in corporate policies and practices.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.