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1
Pashourtidou, Nicoletta. "Cointegration in misspecified models." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.252324.
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Al-Balaa, Norah Rashid. "On the estimation of cointegration models." Thesis, Aberystwyth University, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.271006.
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Silvestrini, Andrea. "Essays on aggregation and cointegration of econometric models." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210304.
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This dissertation can be broadly divided into two independent parts. The first three chapters analyse issues related to temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of econometric models. The fourth chapter contains an application of Bayesian techniques to investigate whether the post transition fiscal policy of Poland is sustainable in the long run and consistent with an intertemporal budget constraint.<p><p><p>Chapter 1 surveys the econometric methodology of temporal aggregation for a wide range of univariate and multivariate time series models. <p><p><p>A unified overview of temporal aggregation techniques for this broad class of processes is presented in the first part of the chapter and the main results are summarized. In each case, assuming to know the underlying process at the disaggregate frequency, the aim is to find the appropriate model for the aggregated data. Additional topics concerning temporal aggregation of ARIMA-GARCH models (see Drost and Nijman, 1993) are discussed and several examples presented. Systematic sampling schemes are also reviewed.<p><p><p>Multivariate models, which show interesting features under temporal aggregation (Breitung and Swanson, 2002, Marcellino, 1999, Hafner, 2008), are examined in the second part of the chapter. In particular, the focus is on temporal aggregation of VARMA models and on the related concept of spurious instantaneous causality, which is not a time series property invariant to temporal aggregation. On the other hand, as pointed out by Marcellino (1999), other important time series features as cointegration and presence of unit roots are invariant to temporal aggregation and are not induced by it.<p><p><p>Some empirical applications based on macroeconomic and financial data illustrate all the techniques surveyed and the main results.<p><p>Chapter 2 is an attempt to monitor fiscal variables in the Euro area, building an early warning signal indicator for assessing the development of public finances in the short-run and exploiting the existence of monthly budgetary statistics from France, taken as "example country". <p><p><p>The application is conducted focusing on the cash State deficit, looking at components from the revenue and expenditure sides. For each component, monthly ARIMA models are estimated and then temporally aggregated to the annual frequency, as the policy makers are interested in yearly predictions. <p><p><p>The short-run forecasting exercises carried out for years 2002, 2003 and 2004 highlight the fact that the one-step-ahead predictions based on the temporally aggregated models generally outperform those delivered by standard monthly ARIMA modeling, as well as the official forecasts made available by the French government, for each of the eleven components and thus for the whole State deficit. More importantly, by the middle of the year, very accurate predictions for the current year are made available. <p><p>The proposed method could be extremely useful, providing policy makers with a valuable indicator when assessing the development of public finances in the short-run (one year horizon or even less). <p><p><p>Chapter 3 deals with the issue of forecasting contemporaneous time series aggregates. The performance of "aggregate" and "disaggregate" predictors in forecasting contemporaneously aggregated vector ARMA (VARMA) processes is compared. An aggregate predictor is built by forecasting directly the aggregate process, as it results from contemporaneous aggregation of the data generating vector process. A disaggregate predictor is a predictor obtained from aggregation of univariate forecasts for the individual components of the data generating vector process. <p><p>The econometric framework is broadly based on Lütkepohl (1987). The necessary and sufficient condition for the equality of mean squared errors associated with the two competing methods in the bivariate VMA(1) case is provided. It is argued that the condition of equality of predictors as stated in Lütkepohl (1987), although necessary and sufficient for the equality of the predictors, is sufficient (but not necessary) for the equality of mean squared errors. <p><p><p>Furthermore, it is shown that the same forecasting accuracy for the two predictors can be achieved using specific assumptions on the parameters of the VMA(1) structure. <p><p><p>Finally, an empirical application that involves the problem of forecasting the Italian monetary aggregate M1 on the basis of annual time series ranging from 1948 until 1998, prior to the creation of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), is presented to show the relevance of the topic. In the empirical application, the framework is further generalized to deal with heteroskedastic and cross-correlated innovations. <p><p><p>Chapter 4 deals with a cointegration analysis applied to the empirical investigation of fiscal sustainability. The focus is on a particular country: Poland. The choice of Poland is not random. First, the motivation stems from the fact that fiscal sustainability is a central topic for most of the economies of Eastern Europe. Second, this is one of the first countries to start the transition process to a market economy (since 1989), providing a relatively favorable institutional setting within which to study fiscal sustainability (see Green, Holmes and Kowalski, 2001). The emphasis is on the feasibility of a permanent deficit in the long-run, meaning whether a government can continue to operate under its current fiscal policy indefinitely.<p><p>The empirical analysis to examine debt stabilization is made up by two steps. <p><p>First, a Bayesian methodology is applied to conduct inference about the cointegrating relationship between budget revenues and (inclusive of interest) expenditures and to select the cointegrating rank. This task is complicated by the conceptual difficulty linked to the choice of the prior distributions for the parameters relevant to the economic problem under study (Villani, 2005).<p><p>Second, Bayesian inference is applied to the estimation of the normalized cointegrating vector between budget revenues and expenditures. With a single cointegrating equation, some known results concerning the posterior density of the cointegrating vector may be used (see Bauwens, Lubrano and Richard, 1999). <p><p>The priors used in the paper leads to straightforward posterior calculations which can be easily performed.<p>Moreover, the posterior analysis leads to a careful assessment of the magnitude of the cointegrating vector. Finally, it is shown to what extent the likelihood of the data is important in revising the available prior information, relying on numerical integration techniques based on deterministic methods.<p><br>Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
4
Li, Hongyi. "Small sample inference in unit roots and cointegration models." Connect to resource, 1995. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1263403552.
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Abhayaratne, Anoma S. P. "Growth and international trade in developing countries : an empirical analysis." Thesis, University of Essex, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.242227.
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Lebo, Matthew Jonathan. "Fractional Integration and Political Modeling." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1999. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc2229/.
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This dissertation investigates the consequences of fractional dynamics for political modeling. Using Monte Carlo analyses, Chapters II and III investigate the threats to statistical inference posed by including fractionally integrated variables in bivariate and multivariate regressions. Fractional differencing is the most appropriate tool to guard against spurious regressions and other threats to inference. Using fractional differencing, multivariate models of British politics are developed in Chapter IV to compare competing theories regarding which subjective measure of economic evaluations best predicts support levels for the governing party; egocentric measures outperform sociotropic measures. The concept of fractional cointegration is discussed and the value of fractionally integrated error correction mechanisms are both discussed and demonstrated in models of Conservative party support. In Chapter V models of presidential approval in the United States are reconfigured in light of the possibilities of fractionally integrated variables. In both the British and American case accounting for the fractional character of all variables allows the development of more accurate multivariate models.
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Li, Dao. "Common Features in Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models." Doctoral thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Statistik, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-13253.
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This thesis consists of four manuscripts in the area of nonlinear time series econometrics on topics of testing, modeling and forecasting nonlinear common features. The aim of this thesis is to develop new econometric contributions for hypothesis testing and forecasting in these area. Both stationary and nonstationary time series are concerned. A definition of common features is proposed in an appropriate way to each class. Based on the definition, a vector nonlinear time series model with common features is set up for testing for common features. The proposed models are available for forecasting as well after being well specified. The first paper addresses a testing procedure on nonstationary time series. A class of nonlinear cointegration, smooth-transition (ST) cointegration, is examined. The ST cointegration nests the previously developed linear and threshold cointegration. An Ftypetest for examining the ST cointegration is derived when stationary transition variables are imposed rather than nonstationary variables. Later ones drive the test standard, while the former ones make the test nonstandard. This has important implications for empirical work. It is crucial to distinguish between the cases with stationary and nonstationary transition variables so that the correct test can be used. The second and the fourth papers develop testing approaches for stationary time series. In particular, the vector ST autoregressive (VSTAR) model is extended to allow for common nonlinear features (CNFs). These two papers propose a modeling procedure and derive tests for the presence of CNFs. Including model specification using the testing contributions above, the third paper considers forecasting with vector nonlinear time series models and extends the procedures available for univariate nonlinear models. The VSTAR model with CNFs and the ST cointegration model in the previous papers are exemplified in detail,and thereafter illustrated within two corresponding macroeconomic data sets.
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Andersson, Michael K. "On testing and forecasting in fractionally integrated time series models." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics [Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet vid Handelshögsk.] (EFI), 1998. http://www.hhs.se/efi/summary/467.htm.
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Brännström, Tomas. "Bias approximation and reduction in vector autoregressive models." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Ekonomisk Statistik (ES), 1995. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-878.
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In the last few decades, vector autoregressive (VAR) models have gained tremendous popularity as an all-purpose tool in econometrics and other disciplines. Some of their most prominent uses are for forecasting, causality tests, tests of economic theories, hypothesis-seeking, data characterisation, innovation accounting, policy analysis, and cointegration analysis. Their popularity appears to be attributable to their flexibility relative to other models rather than to their virtues per se. In addition, analysts often use VAR models as benchmark models. VAR modeling has not gone uncriticised, though. A list of relevant arguments against VAR modelling can be found in Section 2.3 of this thesis. There is one additional problem which is rarely mentioned though, namely the often heavily biased estimates in VAR models. Although methods to reduce this bias have been available for quite some time, it has probably not been done before, at least not in any systematic way. The present thesis attempts to systematically examine the performance of bias-reduced VAR estimates, using two existing and one newly derived approximation to the bias. The thesis is orginanised as follows. After a short introductory chapter, a brief history of VAR modelling can be found in Chapter 2 together with a review of different representations and a compilation of criticisms against VAR models. Chapter 3 reports the results of very extensive Monte Carlo experiments serving dual purposes: Firstly, the simulations will reveal whether or not bias really poses a serious problem, because if it turns out that biases appear only by exception or are mainly insignificant, there would be little need to reduce the bias. Secondly, the same data as in Chapter 3 will be used in Chapter 4 to evaluate the bias approximations, allowing for direct comparison between bias-reduced and original estimates. Though Monte Carlo methods have been (rightfully) criticised for being too specific to allow for any generalisation, there seems to be no good alternative to analyse small-sample properties of complicated estimators such as these. Chapter 4 is in a sense the core of the thesis, containing evaluations of three bias approximations. The performance of the bias approximations is evaluated chiefly using single regression equations and 3D surfaces. The only truly new research result in this thesis can also be found in Chapter 4; a second-order approximation to the bias of the parameter matrix in a VAR(p) model. Its performance is compared with the performance of two existing first-order approximations, and all three are used to construct bias-reduced estimators, which are then evaluated. Chapter 5 holds an application of US money supply and inflation in order to find out whether the results in Chapter 4 can have any real impacts. Unfortunately though, bias reduction appears not to make any difference in this particular case. Chapter 6 concludes.<br>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.
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Custódio, Sandra Cristina Casquinha Gancho da Silva. "Curva de Phillips para Portugal : uma abordagem de cointegração." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/18802.
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Mestrado em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão<br>A presente dissertação surge no âmbito da disciplina de Econometria I do curso de
Mestrado em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, como proposta de um estudo
de aplicação, e se possível desenvolvimento, de algumas técnicas econométricas
leccionadas ao longo do curso. A este objectivo de carácter mais pedagógico juntou-se um
genuíno interesse científico pelo tema: a cointegração é uma matéria "de ponta" no âmbito
da econometria, tendo em si mesma um rigoroso suporte teórico em termos estatísticos,
sendo naturalmente aplicável a diversas relações económicas.
Neste contexto, é desenvolvido o tema das raízes unitárias e cointegração,
propondo modelizações alternativas que passam pela consideração de modelos com
mecanismo correctores do erro e análise em termos univariados e multivariados de
algumas séries respeitantes à economia Portuguesa. Após a introdução, em termos da
vertente económica, do tema referente ao eventual "trade-off' entre o produto-inflação em
Portugal, inicia-se o estudo empírico das potenciais relações de cointegração.
Pretendia-se inicialmente especificar uma Curva de Phillips para a economia
Portuguesa, que fora já proposta por Carlos Robalo Marques, "Cointegration and the
Output-Inflation trade-off': empirical evidence for Portugal" (1994, Banco de Portugal),
como uma oportunidade de alargar conhecimentos e de aplicar técnicas econométricas
com um desenvolvimento recente, no âmbito da modelização num contexto de
integrabilidade. Em simultâneo, a perspectiva da teoria económica é de grande interesse,
explicando a adesão ao tema em questão. Desta forma, era nosso objectivo, para além de
dar continuidade temporal à análise de Marques (1994), fazer uma extensão da mesma
pela introdução de novas variáveis, concretamente o grau de abertura da economia ao
exterior, num contexto de cointegração.<br>This thesis is a proposal of a practical use of the econometric techniques applied to
the economic science. It also surveys the cointegration theory in long-term equilibrium
relationships and short-term model specifications.
Specifically the study of unit roots and cointegration is developed by proposing
altemative models, such as error-correction models, and by analysing series related to the
Portuguese economy while looking at their univariate and multivariate properties. The first
part of this paper is an introduction to the present economy in Portugal and the trade-off
between product and inflation. Following is the empirical study of potential relationships of
cointegration in the economy.
As an opportunity to revise integrability, modelling methods, and to apply recently
developed econometric techniques, a Phillips Curve pertinent to the Portuguese economy is
specified, similar to the one proposed by Carlos Robalo Marques in "Cointegration and the
Output-Inflation trade-off: empirical evidence for Portugal" (1994, Bank of Portugal). It is
our goal then, to update and expand the Marques's analysis, always in the context of
cointegration, by introducing new variables such as the degree of openness of the
Portuguese economy.
However, as will be shown by the parsimony principal, the inclusion of this new
regressor does not change significantly the earlier results making it unnecessary and even
counter-productive. As a result, the fluctuation of the real GDP will then be modelled with
simple methods and using already existent variables.
Due to the difficulties in obtaining sufficiently long and credible economic series,
mainly those related to oil prices, the original goal of the thesis was affected. The data used
carne ffom annually updated publications by the Bank of Portugal, National Institute of
Statistics and the OECD. However, discrepancies in some of the series were found and
these had to be re-evaluated.
Due to eventual structural changes in the Portuguese economy, an analysis was
done to the tests used; namely the ECM test which led to interesting results. The interpretation of this model should however be done with great care namely where the
existence of cointegration between variables is concemed, since it may not be the most
adequate due to its eventual lack of global stability as seen in the history of Portuguese
economy,<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Silva, Bruno Gonçalves da. "Evolução do setor elétrico brasileiro no contexto econômico nacional: uma análise histórica e econométrica de longo prazo." Universidade de São Paulo, 2011. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/86/86131/tde-12032012-091848/.
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A energia elétrica tem papel fundamental em todos os lugares do mundo e, no Brasil, a importância não poderia ser menor. Com sua implantação no país no final do século XIX, o setor passou por diversos períodos de crescimento com características distintas. A economia nacional, de forma similar ao setor elétrico, ao longo do mesmo período passou por fases de grande expansão e por fases de crise. Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho analisa a evolução da economia e do setor elétrico nacionais desde o final do século XIX até o ano de 2010 e, com isso, busca investigar de que forma se relacionaram os crescimentos de um e de outro. Para isso são conduzidas análises histórica e econométrica. A primeira é feita por meio de revisão da bibliografia pertinente ao tema em que o período do estudo é dividido em sete partes: a primeira aborda o início da indústria elétrica brasileira e vai até o final da Primeira República (1889-1930), a segunda abrange o início do governo Getúlio Vargas até o início da ditadura militar (1930-1964), a terceira trata do período da ditadura (1964-1985), a quarta engloba a fase do início da República Nova até a estruturação do setor elétrico (1985-1994), a quinta analisa o período entre a reestruturação do setor elétrico e a crise energética (1995-2002), a sexta trata da contra-reforma do setor elétrico e também de suas características de mercados (2002-2003) e, por fim a última parte analisa o setor elétrico e economia contemporâneos (2003-2010). Na análise econométrica utilizada nesta dissertação testa-se, de forma quantitativa, as evidências de existência de relação de longo prazo entre a economia e o setor elétrico através de um teste de cointegração. A seguir, é conduzida uma análise econométrica adicional com a qual, por meio de um modelo estrutural de séries de tempo, estima-se a demanda de energia elétrica para os próximos anos no Brasil. Com essa ferramenta de projeção de demanda pretende-se oferecer subsídios para o planejamento da expansão da capacidade instalada de geração de energia elétrica do sistema brasileiro. Por fim, analisa-se a validade dos resultados econométricos à luz do contexto histórico desenvolvido anteriormente e apresentam-se conclusões e limitações para este trabalho.<br>Electricity plays a fundamental role in all parts of the world and in Brazil the importance could not be lower. With its beginnings in the country in the late nineteenth century, the power sector has gone through several periods of growth with distinct characteristics. The national economy, similarly to the electricity sector, over the same period went through phases of boom and phases of crisis. In this context, this dissertation analyzes the evolution of the economy and of the national power sector since its beginning until the year 2010 and, therefore, seeks to investigate how the increases of one were related to the other. Historical and econometric analyses are conducted for this purpose. The first is through the review of the literature relevant to the topic, where the period of study is divided into seven parts: the first is from the start of the Brazilian electrical industry and runs until the end of the First Republic (1889-1930), the second is from beginning of the Getulio Vargas government until the beginning of the military dictatorship (1930-1964), the third deals with the period of the dictatorship (1964-1985), the fourth phase studies from the beginning of the New Republic to the structuring of the electricity sector (1985-1994), the fifth examines the period between the electricity sector restructuring and the energy crisis (1995-2002), the sixth comes from the electricity sector reform as well as its market characteristics (2002-2003) and finally the last part examines the contemporary electricity sector and economy (2003-2010). In econometric analysis tests used in this dissertation, it is tested, quantitatively, the evidence of the existence of long-term relationship between the economy and energy sector through a cointegration test. Next, an additional econometric analysis is conducted where, through a structural time series model, it is estimated the demand for electricity for the next years in Brazil. With this demand projection tool, it is intended to provide background information for planning the expansion of installed capacity of electric power generation system in Brazil. Finally the validity of the econometric results is analyzed in the light of the historical context previously developed, and conclusions and limitations of this paper are presented.
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Verner, Jan. "Analýza konvergence vybraných finančních ukazatelů ČR a EU." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-81859.
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This thesis deals with the nominal and real convergence for Czech Republic and the Euro zone. It also includes analysis of synchronization of economic development in Czech and European economies for identifying potential risks associated with introducing the euro in the CR. The thesis describes different types of convergence and the relevant indicators with their historical evolution and hypothesis about future trends. The empirical part of the paper analyzes some selected indicators using econometric VAR models and linear and non-linear models of conditional heteroskedasticity. A suitable model for the analyzed data is chosen which gives a comparison of development in the Czech Republic and the EU. Especially time series causality, the existence of cointegration and conditional variance processes are observed. In conclusion there's a summary of all theoretical and modelled outputs with the risk evaluation of joining the monetary union.
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Бардадим, Т. О., Ю. П. Лаптін, J. F. Emmenegger та В. М. Домрачев. "Моделі коінтегрування як засіб розробки ринкових стратегій". Thesis, Українська академія банківської справи Національного банку України, 2008. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/61458.
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Сучасна світова фінансова криза вимагає розробки антикризових
заходів, основою яких повинна бути стратегія протидії зовнішнім
чинникам, які негативно впливають на українську економіку. Розробці
моделей виявлення таких чинників присвячена запропонована робота.
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Yang, Kai. "Essays on Multivariate and Simultaneous Equations Spatial Autoregressive Models." The Ohio State University, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1461277549.
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Starkey, Randall Ashley. "Financial system development and economic growth in selected African countries: evidence from a panel cointegration analysis." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002713.
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Financial systems (i.e. banking systems and stock markets) can influence economic growth by performing the five key financial functions, namely: mobilising savings, allocating capital, easing of exchange, monitoring and exerting corporate governance, as well as ameliorating risk. The level of development of the financial system is a key determinant of how effectively and efficiently these functions are performed. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between financial system development and economic growth for a panel of seven African countries (namely: Egypt, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia) covering the period 1988 to 2008. While numerous empirical studies have researched this topic, none of the previous African empirical literature have investigated thjs by using three groups of financial development measures (i.e. overall financial development, banking system development and stock market development measures) as well as employing panel cointegration analyses. The investigation of the long-run finance-growth relationship is conducted using two methods; the Pedroni panel cointegration approach and the Kao panel cointegration technique. The Pedroni panel cointegracion approach is more often applied in empirical research as it has less restrictive deterministic trend assumptions, while the Kao panel cointegration technique is employed in this study for comparison purposes. Furthermore, the short-run linkages bet\veen financial development and economic growth are analysed using the Holtz-Eakin d of (1989) panel Granger causality test. The results of the Pedroni cointegration tests show that there are long-run relationships between overall financial development (measured by LOFD and OFD2) and economic growth, banking system development (measured by LPSC) and economic growth, as well as stock marker development (measured by LMCP and LVLT) and economic growth. In contrast, the Kao test fails to find any cointegration between finance and growth. However, on the balance, findings largely support a conclusion of cointegration between financial development and economic growth since the Pedroni approach is more appropriate for examining cointegration in heterogeneous panels. Estimates of these long-run cointegrating relationships show that all five financial development measures have the expected positive linkages with growth. However, only four of the five financial development measures were found to have significant long-run linkages with growth, as the relationship between LOFD and growth was not found to be significant in the long-run. The panel Granger causality results show that economic growth Granger causes banking system development in the short-run (i.e. there is demand-following finance), irrespective of the measure of banking development used. While there is bi-directional, reciprocal causality between economic growth and both of the measures of overall financial development and one measure of srock market development (i.e. LVLT). Thus, pulicy makers should focus on formulating policy which promotes faster paced economic growth so as to stimulate financial development, while at the same time encourage policy that promotes the balanced expansion of the banking systems and srock markets in ordet to augment economic growth.
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Dias, Gustavo Fruet. "Uma estimativa da taxa de câmbio real com mudança de regime markoviano : uma análise para o Brasil 1994 a 2005." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/8785.
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A presente dissertação de conclusão de mestrado tem por objetivo contribuir com a literatura existente que versa acerca da estimação da Taxa de Câmbio Real (RER) através de fundamentos econômicos. O objetivo deste trabalho é utilizar o instrumental teórico de modelos com mudança de regime (Markov Switching) aplicado sobre os fundamentos que determinam a RER em um modelo de Cointegração. O modelo teórico utilizado para a estimação foi o proposto por Montiel (1999), modelo este que é mais indicado para países em desenvolvimento, para o período de 1994 até 2005. Os resultados obtidos na estimação da Taxa de Câmbio Real foram contundentes em demonstrar que havia três regimes distintos (definidos como sendo regimes de estabilidade, transição e risco extremo) na determinação da RER, indicando que havia uma relação não linear entre está última e os fundamentos econômicos. Verificou-se ainda que a magnitude e os sinais dos parâmetros dos fundamentos estimados para cada regime distinto eram diferentes, sugerindo que a RER reagia de maneira distinta a choques nos fundamentos econômicos de acordo com o regime que a economia se encontrava. Os coeficientes obtidos nas estimações foram utilizados para estimar uma Taxa de Câmbio de Equilíbrio, sendo possível identificar os desvios (misalignments) da taxa observa com relação à taxa estimada a parti r de 1994.<br>The present dissertation aims to contribute with the studies over Real Exchange Rate in Brazil and the impact of the economic fundamentals on its determination. The main purpose of the dissertation is to use the Markov Switching framework over the fundamentals in the estimation of the Real exchange Rate to the period between 1994 and 2005, using a model based on Montiel (1999), which is more appropriate to developing countries. The results show strong evidences that there are different regimes (interpreted as stability, transition and extremely risk), which can be understood as a non linear relationship between the Real Exchange Rate and the fundamentals. In other words, it was possible to show that the impact of the fundamentals over the Real Exchange Rate is submitted to three different regimes, where the magnitude and signal of their coefficients are different in each regime. The parameters of the model were used to estimate an Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, which was possible to demonstrate the misalignments after 1994.
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Nahhas, Abdulkader. "Essays in international finance and banking." Thesis, Brunel University, 2016. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/13160.
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In this thesis financial movements are considered in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI) and a related way to international banking. In Chapter 2 FDI is analysed in terms of the major G7 economies. Then this is further handled in Chapter 3 in terms of bilateral FDI (BFDI) data related to a broader group of economies and a main mode of analysis the Gravity model. Gravity models are then used in Chapter 4 to analyse bilateral cross border lending in a similar way. While the exchange rate effect is handled in terms of volatility and measured using models of conditional variance. The analysis focused on the bilateral data pays attention to the breakdown of crises across the whole period. With further consideration made of the Euro zone in terms of the study of BFDI and cross border lending. The initial study looks at the determinants of the inflow and outflow of stocks of FDI in the G7 economies for the period 1980-2011. A number of factors, such as research and development (R&D), openness and relative costs are shown to be important, but the main focus is on the impact of the real and nominal effective exchange rate volatility. Where nominal and real exchange rate volatility are measured using a model of generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) to explain the variance. Although the impact of volatility is theoretically ambiguous inflows are generally negatively affected by increased volatility, whilst there is some evidence outflows increase when volatility rises. In Chapter 3, the effect of bilateral exchange rate volatility is analysed using BFDI stocks, from 14 high income countries to all the OECD countries over the period 1995-2012. This is done using annual panel data with a gravity model. The empirical analysis applies the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to a gravity model of BFDI stocks. The findings imply that exports, GDP and distance are key variables that follow from the Gravity model. This study considers the East Asian, global financial markets and systemic banking crises have exerted an impact on BFDI. These effects vary by the type and origin of the crisis, but are generally negative. A high degree of exchange rate volatility discourages BFDI. Chapter 4 considers the determinants of cross-border banking activity from 19 advanced countries to the European Union (EU) over the period 1999-2014. Bilateral country-level stock data on cross-border lending is examined. The data allows us to analyse the effect of financial crises – differentiated by type: systemic banking crises, the global financial crisis, the Euro debt crisis and the Lehman Brothers crisis on the geography of cross-border lending. The problem is analysed using quarterly panel data with a Gravity model. The empirical "Gravity" model conditioned on distance and size measured by GDP is a benchmark in explaining the volume of cross border banking activities. In addition to the investigation of the impact of crises further comparison is made by investigating the impact of European integration on cross-border banking activities between member states. These results are robust to various econometric methodologies, samples, and institutional characteristics.
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Tonguc, Ozlem. "Wheat Price Dynamics In Turkey: A Nonlinear Analysis." Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612357/index.pdf.
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Wheat is an extremely important agricultural commodity, due to its crucial role in everyday nutrition, food security, and in terms of incomes of a large body of farmers worldwide. This study examines the dynamics of wheat prices in Turkey in a framework that allows for regime switching. Due to their simplicity, threshold autoregressive (TAR) models are used to capture the effects of factors such as transaction costs and other institutional arrangements that generate discontinuous adjustment to equilibrium price level. The results are compared with standard linear model estimations. Results indicate that there is strong evidence for asymmetric adjustment of wheat prices in Turkey to the equilibrium price, hence models allowing for regime switching are more preferable over the linear ones. However, the diagnostics of the TAR model reveal that specification of a TAR model allowing for more than two regimes, or a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model that allows for smooth transition through a continuum of regimes might be more appropriate.
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Obešlo, František. "Exportní a importní funkce (empirická analýza na příkladě České republiky)." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-201093.
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This work focuses on import and export of goods of the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic is very open country in European Union. Ratio of import and export of goods and services to GDP is above European Union average. The goal is to find explaining variables, which has an influence on import and export of goods and to create robust and economically interpretable models. Models are created by cointegration analysis. The advantage of cointegration analysis and error correction models is avoiding spurious regression and differentiation of short-term and long-term relations. There will be used two attitudes for creation of models: with help of ADL models and Johansen method, which serve to comparison of results. There is a space for test of influence of exchange rate shocks on import and export of goods in the end.
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Díaz, Vela Carlos. "Contrastes de no invertibilidad y cointegración en modelos VARIMA." Doctoral thesis, Universidad de Cantabria, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/80195.
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En esta tesis doctoral se deriva un procedimiento de contraste localmente óptimo para la hipótesis nula de cointegración en modelos ARIMA multivariantes. Si existen combinaciones lineales estacionarias entre las variables integradas que componen el sistema objeto de análisis, la diferenciación simultánea de las mismas introduce una estructura MA(1) adicional no invertible en el modelo VARIMA que sigue el vector de series. El procedimiento de análisis que se propone en esta tesis, por tanto, consiste en ajustar un modelo VARIMA al vector de series y detectar la presencia de cointegración contrastando la no invertibilidad del polinomio media móvil. Para ello se deriva la extensión multivariante de los contrastes de no invertibilidad tanto para el modelo básico VIMA(1,1) como para el modelo general VARIMA(p,1,q+1). En este último caso, se propone una corrección paramétrica basada en los residuos exactos del modelo, alternativa a las correcciones no paramétricas habituales en la literatura.<br>In this doctoral thesis a locally optimal testing procedure for the null of cointegration in multivariate ARIMA models is derived. If there are linear combinations of integrated variables that are stationary, simultaneously differencing them introduces an additional noninvertible MA(1) structure to the VARIMA model that describes the vector of time series. The procedure of analysis proposed in this thesis consists of fitting a VARIMA model to the vector of series and detecting the presence of cointegration testing the noninvertibility of the moving average polynomial. To this aim, the multivariate extension of the noninvertibility tests in the basic model VIMA(1,1) and in the general VARIMA(p,1,q+1) model are derived. In the latter case, a parametric correction based on the exact residuals of the model is proposed, alternative to the non parametric corrections common in the literature.
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Suwardi, Eko. "Exploring the relationship between market values and accounting numbers of firms listed in an emerging market." Queensland University of Technology, 2004. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/15986/.
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Studies of the relationship between market values and accounting numbers have long been a part of an established theme in capital markets research (CMR). These studies have taken various forms, most being conducted on a cross sectional basis, tied closely with the assumptions of equilibrium behaviour and efficient markets. Explanatory variables for market value have been dominated by firm-specific variables without incorporating macroeconomic variables. Recently, however, some studies have employed macroeconomic variables and dynamic specification in assessing the relationship between market values and accounting numbers (e.g. Bilson et al. 2001, Nissim and Penman, 2003, and Willett, 2003). The objective of this thesis is to investigate the nature of the relationship between share prices and accounting numbers on the Jakarta Stock Exchange for the period 1992-2002, using dynamic modelling principles in addition to the more usual cross sectional analysis. The approach to regression modelling (general-to-specific strategy)incorporated in this thesis relies less heavily than most CMR on prior economic theories of equilibrium behaviour. Apart from these novel aspects of approach and method, the study also provides valuable information about the emerging financial markets of Indonesia. The results of this thesis show that cointegration and the accompanying equilibrium correction relationship between market and book values for firms listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) can often be identified using accounting and macroeconomic regressors. The models are typically more informative, plausible and consistent than cross sectional models and are useful in interpreting the context in which the market to book relationship exists in Indonesia. A possibly surprising result is that in Indonesia, compared to similar models estimated using US data, the book value of net assets seems to have a stronger relationship with market value. This may be a function of the relative importance of financial statements as a source of information on the JSX.
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Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna, and Stefan Humer. "Modelling Primary Energy Consumption under Model Uncertainty." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2012. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3706/1/wp147.pdf.
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This paper examines the long-term relationship between primary energy consumption and other key macroeconomic variables, including real GDP, labour force, capital stock and technology, using a panel dataset for 64 countries over the period 1965-2009. Deploying panel error correction models, we find that there is a positive relationship running from physical capital, GDP, and population to primary energy consumption. We observe however a negative relationship between total factor productivity and primary energy usage. Significant differences arise in the magnitude of the cointegration coefficients, when we allow for differences in geopolitics and wealth levels. We also argue that inference on the basis of a single model without taking model uncertainty into account can lead to biased conclusions. Consequently, we address this problem by applying simple model averaging techniques to the estimated panel cointegration models. We find that tackling the uncertainty associated with selecting a single model with model averaging techniques leads to a more accurate representation of the link between energy consumption and the other macroeconomic variables, and to a significantly increased out-of-sample forecast performance. (authors' abstract)<br>Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Yanik, Yeliz. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Investigation." Master's thesis, METU, 2006. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12608286/index.pdf.
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This study investigates the validity of the twin deficits hypothesis for the Turkish quarterly data over the 1988:1-2005:2 periods. To this end, we consider a VAR variable space containing budget deficits, current account deficits, real output, real interest rates and real exchange rates and employ cointegration, equilibrium/error correction mechanism techniques along with Granger-non-causality tests and impulse response analyses. The empirical results from decompositions of the budget and current account deficits into their cyclical and structural components suggest that both CAD and BD are counter-cyclical. The twin deficit hypothesis, consistent with the conventional Mundell-Flemming framework, postulates that current account and budget deficits move together in the long run and the causality runs from the former to the latter. The results from Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration procedures support either the twin divergence or the Ricardian equivalence postulations but not the twin deficits hypothesis. Current account deficits and budget deficits are also found to be jointly endogenous. The short-run impacts of budget deficits on current account deficits are found to be mainly through the real exchange rate and real interest rate channels.
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Caiado, Aníbal Jorge Da Costa Cristóvão. "Taxas de juro e inflação em Portugal : testes e modelos de previsão." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16213.
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Mestrado em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão<br>O propósito do presente trabalho é modelizar quatro sucessões cronológicas de taxas de juro activas e passivas das instituições bancárias em Portugal para os meses de Junho de 1987 a Junho de 1996, e analisar as suas relações de causalidade com a taxa de inflação. A ocorrência de determinados acontecimentos que interferiram com o comportamento das taxas de juro nominais, como por exemplo, a supressão dos preços máximos e mínimos fixados administrativamente para as operações de empréstimos e depósitos bancários, ou o estabelecimento da liberalização do movimento de capitais com a União Europeia, levounos a proceder à modelização de análise de intervenção, associando à metodologia ARIMA univariada de Box-Jenkins os efeitos determinísticos desses choques exógenos (intervenções e outliers), de modo a permitir uma melhoria da qualidade do ajustamento dos modelos e uma melhor descrição da estrutura das referidas sucessões. Através da metodologia função transferência e com a inclusão da taxa de inflação, pretende-se mostrar que as variações no nível geral dos preços produzem um efeito sobre as taxas de juro nominais, mas que há desfasamentos que são variáveis consoante o prazo e o tipo de operação (de concessão de empréstimos ou de captação de depósitos). Como alternativa aos modelos de função transferência que, por um lado, partem da hipótese fundamental de ausência de feedback ou interdependência entre as sucessões e, por outro lado, exigem adequadas transformações a fim de as tornar branqueadas, o que pode diminuir a força das suas relações de causalidade, procederam-se a testes de causalidade à Granger para modelos VAR bivariados. Das verificações empíricas dos testes realizados, concluiu-se que não existe uma relação de causalidade recíproca no sentido das taxas de juro nominais poderem também ser consideradas preditivas do nível futuro da inflação, e as taxas de juro apenas são influenciadas pelas variações no nível geral dos preços ou integram as expectativas inflacionistas para alguns subperíodos considerados.<br>The purpose of the present work is to modelize four time series concerning the lending and deposit interest rates ofthe banking institutions in Portugal, from June 1987 to June 1996. This work also aims at analysing their implications in the inflation rate. Some facts have had deep influence on the behaviour of the nominal interest rates, such as: the abolition of the maximum and minimum prices administratively fixed for lending operations and banking deposits, or the liberalization of the capitai movements within the European Union which led us to the systematization ofthe intervention analysis associating the Box-Jenkins' univariate ARIMA methodology with the deterministic effects ot the exogenous shocks (intervations and outliers), in order to achieve an improvement of quality in the models adjustment, as well as a better description of the abovementioned time series. Through the methodology of tranfer function models and with the inclusion of the inflation rate, our purpose is to show that the changes, in what regards the prices general levei, affect the nominal interest rates although there are some gaps wich vary according to the term and type of operation (lending or deposit-taking). As an alternative to the transfer function models that assume beforehand the crucial hypothesis of the lack of feedback or interdependence between the time series and, on the other hand, demand suitable transformations in order to make them prewhitened (which may reduce the strength of their causal relationships), GrangeTs causality tests have been carried out for bivariate VAR models. Of the empirical verifiability of the tests carried out, we carne to the conclusion that there is no feedback relation confirming that the nominal interest rates might be considered preditive of the future levei of inflation. And the interest rates are only affected by the changes occurred in the general price levei or take part in the inflation expectations for some of the sub-periods referred to.<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Fonseca, Eder Lucio da. "Modelo de cointegração variando com o tempo: abordagem via ondaletas." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45133/tde-26032017-175337/.
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Duas ou mais séries não estacionárias são cointegradas se existir uma relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo entre elas. Nas últimas décadas, o interesse na literatura sobre o tema cointegração aumentou de maneira expressiva. Os modelos tradicionais supõem que o vetor de cointegração não varia ao longo do tempo. Entretanto, existem evidências na literatura de que esta suposição pode ser considerada muito restritiva. Utilizando o conceito de ondaletas, propomos um modelo de correção de erros vetorial em que é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar ao longo do tempo. Diferente de trabalhos similares, é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar suave ou abruptamente, dependendo da família de ondaletas considerada. Experimentos de Monte Carlo foram utilizados para estudar os quantis e o poder do teste de razão de verossimilhanças entre as hipóteses de cointegração usual e a de cointegração variando com o tempo. Os experimentos sugerem que o teste possui poder contra alternativas que variam ao longo do tempo. Foi demonstrada a capacidade do modelo em lidar satisfatoriamente com séries cointegradas simuladas, que apresentavam mudança de regime para o vetor de cointegração. O modelo foi empregado ainda para testar a validade da hipótese de paridade de poder de compra entre Estados Unidos e doze países da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OECD): Canadá, Japão e mais dez países europeus. Assim como em trabalhos similares, foram verificadas evidências de cointegração variando com o tempo entre os países. Foram utilizados valores-p bootstrap para verificar a significância da estatística do teste.<br>Two or more non-stationary time series are cointegrated if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. In recent decades, interest in the literature on the subject of cointegration increased expressively. Traditional models that address this issue assume that the cointegration vector does not vary over time. However, there is evidence in the literature that this assumption can be considered very restrictive. Using the concept of wavelets, we propose a vector error correction model in which is allowed to the cointegration vector vary over time. Unlike similar works, the cointegration vector is allowed to vary smoothly or abruptly, depending on the considered family of wavelets. Monte Carlo experiments were used to study the quantiles and the power of the likelihood ratio test of the hypotheses of usual cointegration versus the time-varying cointegration. The experiments suggest that the test has power against alternatives that vary over time. It was demonstrated the ability of the model to deal satisfactorily with simulated cointegrated series, which presented regime change for the cointegration vector. The model was also used to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis between United States and twelve countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): Canada, Japan and ten other European countries. As in similar works, evidence of time-varying cointegration was verified among countries. Bootstrap p-values were used to verify the significance of the likelihood ratio of the test.
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Mnjama, Gladys Susan. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Kenya." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002709.
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In 1993, Kenya liberalised its trade policy and allowed the Kenyan Shillings to freely float. This openness has left Kenya's domestic prices vulnerable to the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. One of the objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya is to maintain inflation levels at sustainable levels. Thus it has become necessary to determine the influence that exchange rate changes have on domestic prices given that one of the major determinants of inflation is exchange rate movements. For this reason, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in Kenya. In addition, it takes into account the direction and size of changes in the exchange rates to determine whether the exchange rate fluctuations are symmetric or asymmetric. The thesis uses quarterly data ranging from 1993:Ql - 2008:Q4 as it takes into account the period when the process of liberalization occurred. The empirical estimation was done in two stages. The first stage was estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) co integration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage entailed estimating the impulse response and variance decomposition functions as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. In determining the asymmetric aspect of the analysis, the study followed Pollard and Coughlin (2004) and Webber (2000) frameworks in analysing asymmetry with respect to appreciation and depreciation and large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results obtained showed that ERPT to Kenya is incomplete but relatively low at about 36 percent in the long run. In terms of asymmetry, the results showed that ERPT is found to be higher in periods of appreciation than depreciation. This is in support of market share and binding quantity constraints theory. In relation to size changes, the results show that size changes have no significant impact on ERPT in Kenya.
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Senzangakhona, Phakama. "The impact of oil price volatility on unemployment: a case study of South Africa." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/1697.
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This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.
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Tshipinare, Katso. "Purchasing power parity between Botswana and South Africa: a cointegration analysis." Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2006. http://etd.uwc.ac.za/index.php?module=etd&action=viewtitle&id=gen8Srv25Nme4_1984_1184669340.
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<p>This paper tested the purchasing power parity hypothesis for Botswana and South Africa using cointegration analysis. The data used are the spot exchange rate between the two countries (rand and pula) and their consumer price indices.</p>
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Juselius, Mikael. "A cointegration approach to topics in empirical macroeconomics /." Helsingfors : Svenska Handelshögskolan, 2007. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/555519236.pdf.
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Chang, Jaechul. "Real exchange rate and relative real wage : the Balassa-Samuelson model revisited /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/7430.
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Jovanović, Mario. "Welche Bedeutung hat die Theorie für die Praxis? : Schätzung ökonometrischer Mehrgleichungsmodelle unter Cointegration /." Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] : Lang, 2007. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=015591756&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
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Korucu, Gumusoglu Nebile. "Modelling Nonlinearities In European Money Demand: An Application Of Threshold Cointegration Model." Phd thesis, METU, 2013. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12615635/index.pdf.
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The money demand function has been regarded as a fundamental building block in macroeconomic modelling, as it represents the link between the monetary policy and rest of the economy. The extensive literature on money demand function is concerned with the existence of a stable money demand function, which ensures adequate prediction of impact of a given change in money supply on other economic variables such as, inflation, interest rates, national income, private investment and other policy variables. This thesis employs both linear and nonlinear estimation methods to investigate the relationship between money demand, GDP, inflation and interest rates for the Euro Area over the period 1980-2010. The aim of this thesis is to compare the European money demand in linear and nonlinear framework. First a vector autoregression (VAR) model has been estimated. Then a threshold cointegration model has been employed and nonlinearity properties of the money demand relationship has been investigated. In contrast to the existing empirical literature, linear VEC model can find evidence of stability, however it has some conflicting results which can be explained by the nonlinearity of the model. Empirical results of MTAR type threshold cointegration specification verifies the nonlinearity in European money demand. The adjustment coefficient of lower regime suggests faster adjustment towards long run equilibrium compared to upper regime in nonlinear model. Moreover, the nonlinear model presents better fit to economic literature than linear model for European money demand.
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Hu, Zhejin. "Time Series Forecasting Model for Chinese Future Marketing Price of Copper and Aluminum." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2008. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/math_theses/60.
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This thesis presents a comparison for modeling and forecasting Chinese futures market of copper and aluminum with single time series and multivariate time series under linear restrictions. For single time series, data transformation for stationary purpose has been tested and performed before ARIMA model was built. For multivariate time series, co-integration rank test has been performed and included before VECM model was built. Based on selected models, the forecasting shows multivariate time series analysis has a better result than single time series, which indicates utilizing the relationships among the series can improve the accuracy of time series forecasting.
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Guo, Yuanxiang. "Chinese wheat price analysis - with application of cointegration and Granger causality test." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/52978.
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Traditional demonstration of price fluctuation in the wheat market, by the theory of supply and demand is not comprehensive enough. With limited understanding of macroeconomic effects on the wheat market, accurate prediction of wheat price is impossible. Given the Chinese self—sustainable food policy, grain imports is a sensitive topic which may incur fierce argument. In this paper, however, I emphasize effect of exchange rate on nominal wheat price. By application of the cointegration theory, CPI shows slight negative correlation with nominal wheat price, yet GDP and population move in the same direction as the wheat price. The cointegration study of exchange rate implies, with appreciating Chinese RMB, domestic buyers incline to purchase wheat from the cheaper foreign market. According to the Granger causality test, the whole package of variables suggests significant causal relation with the wheat price.
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Oliach, Güell Mª José. "Mesura de la influència dels determinants de la salut en l'evolució de la tuberculosi." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/385740.
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Antecedents: la malaltia tuberculosa està relacionada tant amb factors biològics com amb altres determinants de la salut. A Espanya durant els darrers anys es produeixen canvis a l’entorn econòmic, social i sanitari que poden afectar a l’evolució de la malaltia tuberculosa.
Objectiu de la tesi: establir com els determinants poden explicar els canvis en el comportament epidemiològic de la tuberculosi i quina ha estat la importància relativa de cadascun. Plantegem una visió holística de la malaltia, en la qual la seva evolució es relaciona amb múltiples factors, molts d’ells no sanitaris.
Metodologia: (1) revisió de la literatura i recollida de dades; (2) anàlisi de cointegració de les sèries temporals per a descriure la consistència de cadascun dels determinants i confirmar les seves relacions a llarg termini amb la malaltia; i (3) construcció de models estructurals per analitzar dades transversals que poden mesurar fenòmens multidimensionals i latents, no directament mesurables, com és la propensió a la tuberculosi.
Els resultats confirmen les hipòtesis:
A) Anàlisi de sèries temporals: (1) la població desprotegida és més susceptible enfront de la malaltia, mentre que no ho és una societat més benestant; (3) els trastorns orgànics i multiorgànics faciliten la progressió de la tuberculosi; (4) la capacitat econòmica, un millor finançament del sistema sanitari i una planificació eficient d’estratègies en salut contribueixen a una menor incidència de la tuberculosi i a una utilització més eficient dels recursos; (5) els estils de vida perjudicials i una climatologia adversa produeixen més utilització dels serveis sanitaris i una major incidència.
B) Models estructurals: tant el model MIMIC com el model PATH confirmen que els pesos relatius de cada determinant són diferents. La importància de variables representatives del medi ambient i estils de vida pot ser quatre vegades més gran que la de variables relacionades amb el determinant biològic.<br>Antecedentes: la tuberculosis está relacionada tanto con factores biológicos como con otros determinantes de la salud.
Objetivo de la tesis: establecer como los determinantes de la salud pueden explicar los cambios en el comportamiento epidemiológico de la tuberculosis y cuál ha sido la importancia relativa de cada uno en España. Planteamos una visión holística de la enfermedad, en la cual su evolución se relaciona con múltiples factores, muchos de ellos no sanitarios.
Metodología: (1) revisión de la literatura y recogida de datos; (2) análisis de cointegración de las series temporales para describir la consistencia de cada uno de los determinantes y confirmar sus relaciones a largo plazo con la enfermedad; y (3) construcción de modelos estructurales para analizar datos transversales que pueden medir fenómenos multidimensionals y latentes, no directamente medibles, como es la propensión a la tuberculosis.
Los resultados confirman las hipótesis:
A) Análisis de series temporales: (1) la población desprotegida es más susceptible frente a la enfermedad, mientras que no lo es una sociedad con un alto nivel de vida ; (3) los trastornos orgánicos y multiorgánicos facilitan la progresión de la tuberculosis; (4) la capacidad económica, una mejor financiación del sistema sanitario y una planificación eficiente de estrategias en salud contribuyen a una menor incidencia de la tuberculosis y a una utilización más eficiente de los recursos; (5) los estilos de vida perjudiciales y una climatología adversa producen más utilización de los servicios sanitarios y una mayor incidencia.
B) Modelos estructurales: tanto el modelo MIMIC como el modelo PATH confirman que los pesos relativos de cada determinante son diferentes. La importancia de variables representativas del medio ambiente y estilos de vida puede ser cuatro veces más grande que la de variables relacionadas con el determinante biológico.<br>Background. Tuberculosis is related to biological factors, as well as, to other health factors.
Objective. The purpose of this thesis is to analyse the contribution of health determinants to understand changes in the epidemiological behaviour of tuberculosis in Spain. The relative importance of each health determinant effect is evaluated. It is shown that the evolution of tuberculosis is not only related to health determinants, but also to non-health factors.
Methodology. (1) Review of the literature and data collection; (2) time series cointegration analysis to describe the consistency of each of the determinants and to confirm its long-term relationships with the disease; and (3) cross-sectional data analysis through structural equations models that allow to measure latent multidimensional phenomena, which are not directly measurable, such as the propensity to tuberculosis.
The results confirmed our hypothesis:
A) Time series analysis: (1) the unprotected population is more susceptible against tuberculosis. In contrast, a welfare society is more resistant against the disease; (2) organic and multi-organic disorders facilitate the progression of tuberculosis; (3) the size of the budget devoted to health, a better health care financing system and effective health care planning strategies contribute to a lower incidence of tuberculosis and more efficient use of resources; (4) harmful lifestyles and adverse weather conditions increase the use of health services and the incidence of tuberculosis.
B) Structural equation modeling: both the hypothesized multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) model and the path model show significant differences in the relative weight of the determinants in explaining tuberculosis indicators. Interestingly, the impact of environment and lifestyles variables on tuberculosis is four times higher than the impact of biological health variables.
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Havrlant, David. "Analýza vývoje cenové konvergence ČR k EU." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2006. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-77050.
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The price level convergence of the transition economies towards the reference economies is linked to the relative price of nontradables, which is explained by the total factor productivity differentials in tradable and nontradable sector. Basic concept is offered by the Balassa Samuelson model and its modifications. Testable equations are derived from these models, and the panel data approach is applied for their estimation. The results indicate faster growth of the relative price of nontradables in transition economies as succession of higher growth rate of the total factor productivity in tradable sector. Hence estimated models confirm the price level convergence of transition economies towards the reference economies. The analyses of price dynamics of the complementary field, i. e. of the tradables, follows, and the basic concept is represented by the rational bubble hypothesis. The stress is putted on the impact of the word prices on the price levels of the Czech Republic. After a cointegration analysis of the time series is carried out, the influence of the word prices of tradable commodities is estimated within a vector error correction model and regression analysis. This cost factors analysis is afterwards related to the export dynamics of the Czech Republic, and models suitable for quantitative analysis of export dynamics as well as its prediction based on vector error correction model and regression analysis are evaluated. Their forecasting ability is assessed within a simulation of ex-post forecasts and a root mean squared error. The aim is to consider the relationship between the price levels and the export dynamics, for the relation of both variables evaluated within the Granger causality seems to be less straightforward then the standard export equations suggest, and the estimated equations confirm significant influence of the export dynamics on the price level.
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He, Wei. "Model selection for cointegrated relationships in small samples." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/971.
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Vector autoregression models have become widely used research tools in the analysis of macroeconomic time series. Cointegrated techniques are an essential part of empirical macroeconomic research. They infer causal long-run relationships between nonstationary variables. In this study, six information criteria were reviewed and compared. The methods focused on determining the optimum information criteria for detecting the correct lag structure of a two-variable cointegrated process.
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Bonilla, Bolanos Andrea. "A step further in the theory of regional economic integration : a look at the Unasur's integration strategy." Thesis, Lyon 2, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015LYO22009.
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La nouvelle stratégie d'intégration adoptée en 2000 par les pays Sud-Américains, après trois décennies d'instabilité économique et de crises récurrentes, est un jalon de l'histoire économique de la région. En effet, la volatilité du cycle économique de ces pays s'est réduite significativement à partir de cette date, atteignant son niveau le plus bas depuis 1950. L'analyse d'un tel phénomène est particulièrement intéressante en particulier lorsque l'on se place dans le contexte de turbulences et de crises des années 2000, à savoir, la crise financière mondiale (2008-2009) et, dans son sillage, la crise des dettes souveraines en zone euro. Dans cette thèse, l'objectif est d'étudier le projet d'intégration régionale d'Amérique du Sud, institutionnalisé en 2008 avec la création de l'Union des Nations Sud-Américaines Unasur, en tant que vecteur de stabilisation de ces économies. De ce fait, il s'agit de concentrer l'analyse sur les interactions entre les douze pays du continent Sud-Américain – Argentine, Bolivie, Brésil, Chili, Colombie, Équateur, Guyana, Paraguay, Pérou, Uruguay, Suriname et Venezuela – qui forment un groupe hétérogène autour d'un objectif commun l' "… intégration culturelle, sociale, économique et politique …" et la "… réduction des asymétries de la qualité de vie de ses citoyens … ". La thèse s'intéresse exclusivement aux aspects économiques d'un tel projet d'intégration régionale. À partir d'outils empiriques et théoriques, nous cherchons à évaluer le niveau de convergence et de vulnérabilité des économies concernées. Plus particulièrement une analyse des impacts des politiques d'intégration dans court terme et une étude de leurs performances macroéconomiques de long terme. La thèse se divise en quatre chapitres et s'appuie sur des modèles qui intègrent diverses sources de diffusion des chocs asymétriques. Le premier chapitre présente l'état de l'art de la théorie d'intégration économique régionale en soulignant le cas Sud-Américain. Le deuxième chapitre analyse, à l'aide de modèles vectoriels autorégressifs structurels et de mesures de corrélation, l'impact de chocs externes sur les secteurs réel, monétaire et budgétaire des pays membres de l'Unasur. L'analyse montre que : (i) même les pays les plus fermés (Argentine et Venezuela) et les plus industrialisées (Brésil) présentent une forte vulnérabilité aux perturbations internationales, (ii) cette vulnérabilité individuelle se traduit en une convergence de court terme des trajectoires des principales variables macroéconomiques des pays concernés. Dans le troisième chapitre, on cherche à mesurer le degré de convergence de long terme des niveaux de vie des citoyens Sud-Américains à l’aide de modèles empiriques vectoriels à correction d'erreur et de techniques de cointégration. Les résultats montrent l'existence de tendances stochastiques communes à long terme. Cela signifie que les pays sont engagés dans un processus d'évolution vers un objectif commun, autrement dit, que les conditions de vie des citoyens Sud-Américains ne divergent pas à long terme. En fin, le troisième chapitre vise à analyser l'impact de l'investissement dans la construction de réseaux régionaux de transport, de communication et d'énergie, sur la réduction de l'hétérogénéité structurelle des pays de l'Unasur (projet IIRSA). En effectuant un certain nombre d'expériences de politique dans un cadre théorique, cette analyse constate que : (i) une accroissement d'investissement public en infrastructure suscite une augmentation du commerce intra-intra-régional mais pas forcément une réduction de l'écart de production entre les pays, (ii) l'écart de production à long terme entre l'Argentine et le Brésil diminue, dans un scénario gagnant-gagnant, en termes de croissance économique, seulement si les gouvernements de ces deux pays coordonnent leur augmentation d'investissement en infrastructure, comme proposé par l'IIRSA<br>Economic integration seems to be a new global trend. The past two decades have witnessed the formation of several economic unions in Asia (ASEAN+3 in 1997), Europe (Eurozone in 1999), Africa, and America (Union of South American Nations, Unasur in 2008). The South American case deserves special attention because, unlike the other blocs, the Unasur emerged as a political alliance and not as an economic one. Furthermore, Unasur is conceived as a strategy for improving the socioeconomic conditions of nations that have a common history of economic instability and external dependence. However, while common concerns and political willingness exist among group members, the question of whether that consensus is sufficient to ensure economic integration remains unanswered. For instance, economic integration as a strategy for macroeconomic stability has seemed to work well in Europe after the euro was launched in 1999 (Sapir, 2011), until the breakdown of the European sovereign debt crisis in recent years has revealed the inherent weaknesses of an economic union that lacks a political union (Fligstein et al., 2012, Issing, 2011). This development suggests that the Unasur project is likely to fail if the concerned economies do not converge economically. This is the reason why, this thesis assesses the Unasur project from an economic integration perspective, thus, complementing the huge body of political literature that has been developed on the issue (Briceño-Ruiz, 2014, Sanahuja, 2012). The first chapter describes the theory of economic integration' state of art focusing on South America. The second chapter examines the reactions of the Unasur economies to external shocks. By using a structural vector autoregression approach, it measures the impact of three external shocks (monetary, commercial, and financial) in the real, monetary, and fiscal economic sectors of Unasur economies and investigates co-movement paths. The results show (i) a non-negligible degree of synchronization across the studied economies, confirming their high external vulnerability, (ii) irrespective of size or integration degree, all Unasur members share mutual weaknesses, which they must fight to overcome. The third chapter evaluates the convergence in real GDP per-capita, as a suitable proxy measure, of the concerned economies for the period 1951-2011. By relying on cointegration techniques and applying Bernard and Durlauf's (1995) stochastic definitions of convergence and common trends, the presented evidence supports the existence of common long-run trends driving output in South America, meaning that the region is involved in a dynamic process of convergence in living standards. Finally, the fourth chapter studies the economic spillovers of the most advanced structural project of the group: the Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA). A micro-founded two-country general equilibrium model is constructed to evaluate potential gains or losses (in terms of output convergence and trade integration) of raising publicly provided transportation infrastructure in a coordinated and uncoordinated manner. The model is solved using data from Argentina and Brazil. Results show that: (i) rising public investment in infrastructure boost commercial integration but not necessarily generates output converge, (ii) the only way for the Argentina and Brazil to achieve output convergence is to coordinate their increments on public infrastructure as proposed by the IIRSA
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Darpeix, Pierre-Emmanuel. "Three essays in applied economics with panel data." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PSLEH099/document.
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Cette thèse se compose de trois articles empiriques appliquant à divers sujets des techniques d'économétrie sur données de panel. L'article principal étudie l'évolution de la transmission des prix des trois principales céréales (blé, maïs, riz) des marchés internationaux vers les producteurs domestiques pour 52 pays sur la période 1970-2013, et cherche à identifier les principaux facteurs expliquant l'hétérogénéité des pass-through. Le second article mesure l'élasticité du trafic aérien au produit intérieur brut dans le monde et met en évidence la grande stabilité de la relation tant dans le temps que d'une région à l'autre. Enfin, le troisième article modélise le mécanisme de fixation du taux de rendement servi par les assureurs français à leurs clients sur les produits d'assurance-vie<br>This dissertation is composed of three empirical articles resorting to econometric methods in panel data analysis to address various research questions. The main article investigates the evolution of the level of price transmission for the three major cereals (wheat, maize and rice) from the international commodity markets down to the local producers for 52 countries between 1970 and 2013 while attempting to identify the main drivers of the heterogeneity in pass-through. The second article measures the elasticity of air-traffic to GDP around the world and demonstrates that the relationship is very stable across régions and through time. Eventually, the third article models the mechanisms through which French life-insurers set the rate of return they pay annually to their policyholders
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Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa. "An analysis of the long run comovements between financial system development and mining production in South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689.
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This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.
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clements, john s. III. "Agricultural Commodity Futures and Farmland Investment: A Regional Analysis." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2010. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/real_estate_diss/8.
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Using seventeen years of data from 1991 to 2008, I derive a pricing model for farmland values. This valuation model is the first using agricultural commodity futures as a proxy for “ex ante” income projections for the crops grown or livestock grazed on United States farmland. While not all inclusive, the model is tested regionally including the Corn Belt, Delta States, Lake States, Mountain, Pacific Northwest, Pacific West and Southeast Regions. Additionally, I test whether interest rate futures contracts have a relationship with farmland values as interest rates have been proven to be a reliable predictor in past research. Farmland capitalization rates and anticipated inflation have hypothesized relationships, but are mainly used as control variables in the study.
In general, agricultural commodity futures contracts are a poor predictor of changes in farmland market values. When examining relationships with quarterly percentage change regression models of the included variables, I find the Mountain region provides the most reliable pricing model where both live cattle and Minnesota wheat futures contracts has a positive statistically significant relationships with farmland market values. Also, wheat futures prices have a significant relationship with farmland values in the Corn Belt region. Interest rate futures contracts, farmland capitalization rates and anticipated inflation are not statistically significant in the majority of the regions.
As a robustness check, I model the price levels of the variables using Johansen’s cointegration procedure. This time-series econometric methodology provides results in regards to long-run equilibrium relationships between the variables. The results are only slightly better. Corn, orange juice and sugar futures contracts have positive statistically significant relationships with farmland market values in multiple regions. Again, wheat has a statistically significant positive relationship with farmland values in the Corn Belt region. The Mountain region and interest rate futures contracts are not applicable for the cointegration tests as they are not integrated to the order of one.
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Asfaha, S. G. "Exchange rate misalignment and international trade competitiveness : A cointegration analysis for South Africa." University of the Western Cape, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/7772.
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Magister Commercii - MCom<br>Issues pertaining to the misalignment of exchange rate have become central in the analysis of open economy macroeconomics for developing countries. This is at least due to two reasons: first persistent overvaluation of currency is seen as a powerful early warning of potential currency crisis and second protracted periods of exchange rate misalignment are highly associated with poor economic performance in a number of developing countries. Owing to this fact, economists are in concession that aligning real exchange rates towards their equilibrium values is an important component of macroeconomic policy adjustments in order to achieve and maintain a sustainable development. For this purpose the estimation of the degree of the real exchange rate misalignment has become pivotal. However, despite the concession among economists regarding the need to minimize the frequency and magnitude of exchange rate misalignment, the estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate (hence the misalignment) has been among the most controversial and challenging issues in modem macroeconomics. For several decades, the Purchasing power parity (PPP) approach-which is based on the law of one price-has been the most widely used methodology for the estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate in both developed and developing countries. In South Africa some attempts have been made to estimate the misalignment of the rand against major currencies on the basis of the PPP approach. However, large numbers of empirical studies show that PPP does not hold except in the 'ultra' long run. In addition, PPP's assumption of a constant equilibrium exchange rate makes it ill-fitted to serve as a bench-mark for the analysis of the exchange rate in countries such as South Africa that experience substantial structural changes. As a result a number of macro-econometric models underlying on the macroeconomic
determinants of exchange rate have been developed, albeit with little applicability in developing countries. In this study, we have used Edwards' (1989) intertemporal general equilibrium model of a small open economy in order to estimate the degree of the real exchange rate misalignment and its impact on the international trade competitiveness of the South African economy for the period 1985:1-2000:4. For this purpose a dynamic single equation error correction model of a first order autoregressive distributed lag model, ADL (1,1), and five years moving average technique have been employed to estimate the exchange rate misalignment. Whereas impulse response analysis and variance decomposition techniques of a cointegrated VAR (vector auto regression) have been established to assess the impact of the misalignment on trade competitiveness. The fmdings of the study reveal that the real exchange rate had been consistently overvalued during the period' 1988:3-1998:2 but undervalued during periods 1998:3- 2000:4. For most of the periods during 1985:1-1988:2 the rand had been undervalued. More over the study discloses that exchange rate misalignment debilitates South Africa's international trade competitiveness accounting for 20 percent of the variation in competitiveness.
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Hlongwane, Tshembhani Mackson. "The effect of South African public debt on economic growth: An ARDL cointegration approach from 1961-2017." University of Western Cape, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/7927.
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Magister Commercii - MCom<br>This study investigates the effect of public debt on economic growth in South Africa since 1961-2017. Public debt stock is disaggregated into external debt and domestic debt in order to determine the effect of each on economic growth independently. The study employed the ARDL bound test to estimate the long and short run relationship among several macroeconomic variables - real economic growth, domestic debt, external debt, budget deficit, inflation rate and investment. An error correction model was used to analyses the short-run disequilibrium. The results show that there is a short and long run equilibrium relationship between foreign debt, domestic debt, budget deficit, inflation rate and economic growth. The empirical results indicate that external debt negatively affects the real GDP growth in South Africa, both in the short and long-run. Several policy implications emerged from the empirical results. To keep public debt more manageable, South Africa should improve its debt management. Furthermore, the country can make use of debt to equity swaps by privatizing underperforming parastatals. This would make them competitive and efficient.
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Fernandes, Pedro Manuel Ribeiro. "The role of banks in economic growth : an empirical application to Portugal." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/19408.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira<br>Esta dissertação avalia o contributo dos bancos para o crescimento económico em Portugal desde a adopção do Euro, usando testes de cointegração e causalidade, bem como funções de resposta a impulsos. Usando rácios de passivos líquidos (depósitos) dos bancos e empréstimos em percentagem do PIB nominal como medidas do desenvolvimento financeiro, encontramos forte evidência de que o crescimento económico exerce um impacto positivo no desenvolvimento financeiro, de acordo com Demetriades e Hussein (1996). Concluiu-se também que os empréstimos bancários não aumentam o produto real no longo e no curto prazo, também de acordo com Demetriades e Hussein (1996). Ao invés disso, estes têm um efeito negativo no PIB real per capita. Esses resultados corroboram a visão defendida por Robinson (1952), como citado em King e Levine (1993a) e Lucas (1988), de que o financiamento apenas evolui em resposta aos desenvolvimentos da economia.<br>This dissertation evaluates the role of banks in economic growth in Portugal since the adoption of the Euro, using cointegration and causality tests, as well as impulse response functions. Using ratios of banks? liquid liabilities (deposits) and loans to nominal GDP as a measure of financial development, we find strong evidence of economic growth exerting a positive impact on financial development, in line with Demetriades and Hussein (1996). It was also concluded that bank lending does not boost real output both in the long-run and in the short-run, also in line with Demetriades and Hussein (1996). Instead, it has a negative effect on real per capita GDP. These results support the view championed by Robinson (1952), as cited in King and Levine (1993a), and Lucas (1988), that finance only evolves in response to developments in the economy.<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Maxa, Jan. "Analýha a komparace inflace v ČR a SRN." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-124610.
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The aim of this paper is to analyse and compare inflation and its dynamics between two countries -- the Czech Republic and Germany -- applying a special kind of econometric models. The first part of this paper is dedicated to economic theory of inflation -- fundamental terms, measuring methods and its targeting. The monetary policy in the Czech Republic and Germany is also shortly introduced. Next chapter tries to describe the econometric concept which is used in this paper -- vector autoregression model (VAR model). In connection with the VAR models, Granger causality, impulse response function, cointegration and error correction model are mentioned as well. The empirical part includes application of selected models on real time series of macroeconomic indicators. Next to the interpretation of results, the forecasts are also implemented.
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Akusuwan, Mutita. "A small quarterly macroeconometric model for the Thai economy : a structural cointegrating VAR approach." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.614921.
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"Cointegration pairs trading strategy on derivatives." 2013. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5549271.
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在現今的社會，協整技術已被廣泛應用於金融和計量經濟領域，特別用於構建股票市場的統計套利策略。在這一篇論文中，我們主要考察在衍生品市場中，基於協整技術的套利交易策略，這一策略的主要研究對象是隱含波動率。利用隱性波動率的線性組合的均值回歸的特性，通過配對兩隻帶有正利差(如theta) 的短期平價歐式跨式期權來獲利。同時，構建實際波動率的模型和預測未來實際波動率的模型將會用於補充這一交易策略的不足，隱性一實際條件和Gamma-Vega條件被引入來提高交易策略的效率。這一策略的績效分析是基於三年的歷史外匯期權數據。從實證數據中，基於協整技術的策略能賺取利潤，而且Vega在利潤中起著重要的作用，並且無論是隱性一實際條件還是Gamma-Vega條件都是有效的。<br>The notion of cointegration has been widely used in finance and econometrics, in particular in constructing statistical arbitrage strategies in the stock market. In this thesis, an arbitrage trading strategy for derivatives based on cointegration is studied to account for the volatility factor. Pairs of short dated at-the-money straddles of European options with positive net carry (i.e. theta) are used to capture the mean-reverting property of the linear combinations of implied volatilities. Furthermore, modeling and forecasting realized volatility are also considered as a supplement to the trading strategy. Implied-Realized Criertion and Gamma-Vega Criterion are introduced to improve the trading strategy. A performance analysis is conducted with a 3-year historical data of Foreign Exchange Options. From the empirical results, the portfolio based on the cointegration strategy makes a profit, where Vega plays a dominant role, and either the Implied-Realized Criertion or the Gamma-Vega Criterion is effective.<br>Detailed summary in vernacular field only.<br>Pun, Lai Fan.<br>Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013.<br>Includes bibliographical references (leaves 43-45).<br>Abstracts also in Chinese.<br>List of Tables --- p.v<br>List of Figures --- p.vi<br>Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1<br>Chapter 2 --- Basic Ideas --- p.4<br>Chapter 2.1 --- Cointegration and Johansen’s Methodology --- p.4<br>Chapter 2.1.1 --- Cointegration --- p.4<br>Chapter 2.1.2 --- Johansen’s Methodology --- p.5<br>Chapter 2.2 --- Cointegration Pairs Trading Strategy --- p.6<br>Chapter 2.3 --- Modelling and Forecasting Realized Volatility --- p.8<br>Chapter 3 --- Cointegration Pairs Trading Strategy On Derivatives --- p.10<br>Chapter 3.1 --- Trading On Implied Volatility --- p.10<br>Chapter 3.2 --- Cointegration Trading Strategy --- p.12<br>Chapter 3.3 --- Greek Letters --- p.13<br>Chapter 3.3.1 --- Requirements of the Trade --- p.13<br>Chapter 3.3.2 --- Approximation of the Expected P/L --- p.15<br>Chapter 3.4 --- Foreign Exchange Options --- p.18<br>Chapter 3.4.1 --- Cointegration Pairs --- p.19<br>Chapter 3.4.2 --- Trading Process --- p.21<br>Chapter 3.4.3 --- More Examples --- p.22<br>Chapter 4 --- Further Trading Strategies --- p.26<br>Chapter 4.1 --- Estimation of Realized Volatility --- p.26<br>Chapter 4.2 --- Implied-Realized Criterion --- p.27<br>Chapter 4.3 --- Gamma-Vega Criterion --- p.29<br>Chapter 4.4 --- Summary --- p.32<br>Chapter 5 --- Conclusion and Further Discussion --- p.37<br>A --- p.39<br>B --- p.41<br>Bibliography --- p.43
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Ssekuma, Rajab. "A study of cointegration models with applications." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/4821.
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This study estimates cointegration models by applying the Engle-Granger (1989) two-step es-
timation procedure, the Phillip-Ouliaris (1990) residual-based test and Johansen's multivariate
technique. The cointegration techniques are tested on the Raotbl3 data set, the World Economic
Indicators data set and the UKpppuip data set using statistical software R. In the Raotbl3 data
set, we test for cointegration between the consumption expenditure, and income and wealth vari-
ables. In the world economic indicators data set, we test for cointegration in three of Australia's
key economic indicators, whereas in the UKpppuip data set we test for the existence of long-run
economic relationships in the United Kingdom's purchasing power parity. The study nds the
three techniques not to be consistent, that is, they do not lead to the same results. However, it
recommends the use of Johansen's method because it is able to detect more than one cointegrating
relationship if present.<br>Decision Sciences<br>M. Com. (Statistics)
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"Longevity risk management with continuous-time cointegration models." 2014. http://repository.lib.cuhk.edu.hk/en/item/cuhk-1291794.
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Wong, Tat Wing.<br>Thesis Ph.D. Chinese University of Hong Kong 2014.<br>Includes bibliographical references (leaves 100-106).<br>Abstracts also in Chinese.<br>Title from PDF title page (viewed on 14, November, 2016).
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"Cointegration and model selection on foreign exchange markets." 1998. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5889711.
Full textAbstract:
by Wai-Man Leung.<br>Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998.<br>Includes bibliographical references (leaves 107-112).<br>Abstract also in Chinese.<br>Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1<br>Chapter 1.1 --- Problems of Cointegration Analysis --- p.1<br>Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions of this Research --- p.2<br>Chapter 1.3 --- Applications of this Research --- p.3<br>Chapter 1.4 --- Organization of this Thesis --- p.3<br>Chapter 2 --- Foreign Exchange Features --- p.5<br>Chapter 2.1 --- Spot Exchange Rate Markets --- p.5<br>Chapter 2.2 --- Development of International Monetary System --- p.6<br>Chapter 2.3 --- Determinants of Foreign Exchange Rates --- p.7<br>Chapter 2.4 --- Description of Foreign Exchange Data --- p.9<br>Chapter 3 --- Literature Overview --- p.17<br>Chapter 3.1 --- Model Selection --- p.17<br>Chapter 3.2 --- Line and Curve Detection......................................................' --- p.20<br>Chapter 3.3 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.23<br>Chapter 4 --- Regression by Minor Component Analysis --- p.24<br>Chapter 4.1 --- Regression by Ordinary Least Squares --- p.24<br>Chapter 4.2 --- Regression by Total Least Squares --- p.27<br>Chapter 4.3 --- The comparison of PCA and MCA --- p.28<br>Chapter 4.4 --- Experiment 4A : Regression on Artifical Data --- p.29<br>Chapter 4.5 --- Experiment 4B : Regression on FX Data --- p.30<br>Chapter 4.6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.32<br>Chapter 5 --- Cointegration Test by Minor Component Analysis --- p.33<br>Chapter 5.1 --- Concept of Cointegration --- p.33<br>Chapter 5.2 --- MCA Based Cointegration Test --- p.34<br>Chapter 5.3 --- Experiment 5B : Cointegration Test on FX Data --- p.36<br>Chapter 5.4 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.38<br>Chapter 6 --- Model Selection by Minor Component Analysis --- p.44<br>Chapter 6.1 --- Hypothesis Test on Minor Component Coefficients --- p.44<br>Chapter 6.2 --- Experiment 6B : Forward Selection on FX Data --- p.46<br>Chapter 6.3 --- Experiment 6B : Backward Elimination on FX Data --- p.50<br>Chapter 6.4 --- Experiment 6C : MCA Based Selection on FX Data --- p.53<br>Chapter 6.5 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.54<br>Chapter 7 --- Cointegration by Modular MCA --- p.55<br>Chapter 7.1 --- Ordinary Modular MCA Based Cointegration --- p.56<br>Chapter 7.2 --- Experiment 8A : OMMCA on Artificial Data --- p.58<br>Chapter 7.3 --- Experiment 8B : OMMCA on FX Data --- p.63<br>Chapter 7.4 --- Variable-Dependent Modular MCA Method --- p.71<br>Chapter 7.5 --- "Experiment 8C : VMMCA on Artificial Data," --- p.73<br>Chapter 7.6 --- Experiment 8D : VMMCA on FX Data --- p.80<br>Chapter 7.7 --- Adaptive Modular MCA Based Cointegration --- p.89<br>Chapter 7.8 --- Experiment 8E : AMMCA on Artificial Data --- p.90<br>Chapter 7.9 --- Experiment 8F : AMMCA on FX Data --- p.94<br>Chapter 7.10 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.103<br>Chapter 8 --- Conclusions and Future Works --- p.105