Academic literature on the topic 'Commercial agriculture'

Purpose. The purpose of this study was to investigated the impact of commercial bank credits on agricultural output in Nigeria over the period 1980 to 2015 by setting three specific objectives which are to examine the trend of commercial bank credit and agricultural output in Nigeria; to investigate the effect of commercial bank credit on agricultural output in Nigeria and to investigate the effect of commercial bank credit on subsector of agriculture in Nigeria. The trend analysis and the impact of commercial bank credit on subsector of agriculture in Nigeria make this work unique and different from other studies in this area. Trend analysis was used to achieve the first objective and fully modified ordinary least square (OLS) for objective two and three. Methodology. The study employed Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) approach. Findings. It was evidenced that interest rate on commercial banks’ credit to agriculture and deposit money bank’s assets are statistically significant in determine agricultural output in Nigeria within the period considered. Also, commercial bank loan on agriculture and deposit money bank’s assets determine the output of crop production in Nigeria; commercial bank loan on agriculture and interest rate on commercial banks’ credit to agriculture determine the output of livestock production in Nigeria and commercial bank loan on agriculture and interest rate on commercial banks’ credit to agriculture determine the output of forestry in Nigeria while commercial bank loan on agriculture and interest rate on commercial banks’ credit to agriculture determine the output of fishing in Nigeria. Limitations. This study is limited because the study does not include other variables that determine the output of agricultural sector in Nigeria. Also, other theories and methods can still be used by other researcher to make it different from this work. Originality. This is an original work and has neither been published in any other peer-reviewed journal nor is under consideration for publication by any other journal.

This article identified the growth commercial agriculture through diversification of crops to predict the process of agricultural transformation in Indonesia. The result showed that the growth of commercial agriculture was varied. Some provinces, such as Jakarta, West Java, North and West Sumatera, Riau, Kalimantan, Midle and South Sulawesi, which had low index, commercialization worked well. The economic pattern of their farmer changed from subsistence to commercial. Agricultural development in those provinces entered to the growth and advanced stages of agricultural transformation. However, others provinces, which had high index, commercial agriculture worked poorly. For all provinces outside Java islands, the cause of those high indexes were predicted by several factors, such as lack of infrastructure, remote areas, and other limitations, so that business accesses to outside areas were not run well. For all provinces inside Java islands, the cause was predicted by the excessive of subsistence agriculture, so that commercial agriculture was delayed, while other areas were suited for various food crops type. From that situation it could be concluded that agricultural development was not spread equally for every province in Indonesia. Since agricultural development policies were such as the existing strategies, the growth of commercial agriculture were predicted would not affect the increase of farmer’s income, because the growth was not caused by transformation of agricultural economic pattern from subsistence to commercial, but was caused by agriculture household enlargement. Consequently, the government should apply land reform policy immediately.Key words: agricultural diversification, agricultural commercialization, agricultural transformation, and agricultural development

AbstractA tobit econometric procedure was used to examine the effect of selected demand and supply factors on nonreal estate agricultural lending by commercial banks in Texas. Results show that banks have reduced their agricultural loan portfolios in response to increased use of interest sensitive deposits after deregulation. Moreover, almost half of this decrease came from banks that stopped making agricultural loans. Also, results show that banks affiliated with multi-bank holding companies lend less money to agriculture relative to their assets than do independent banks.

One of the basic debates in African development is whether agriculture can be the instrument for the transformation of a rural economy. A common question is whether agricultural policies can provide the impetus to move agriculture in developing economies from subsistence to commercial agriculture. Senegal’s Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE) provides a data point in this discussion. Senegal and international donors invested in agricultural supply chains starting in 2012 to facilitate the emergence of commercial agriculture for peanuts, rice, and vegetables. This study focuses on these investments in the Senegal River Valley of northern Senegal. The empirical results presented in this study provide evidence that farms in the Senegal River Valley impacted by PSE have moved away from subsistence agriculture by planting more hectares in commercial crops.

South Africa is divided into two different worlds when it comes to agriculture. One is the commercial agriculture sector, dominated by white farmers, and the other is the developing sector of small-scale, disadvantaged farmers. This is of course the result of the old system of apartheid, Agricultural research and development as well as extension have been focused on white commercial farmers, to the neglect of the small scale farmers. Agricultural research aimed at their specific conditions is essential for sustainable rural development.

Metropolitan agriculture is economically important, especially in the Northeast. While faced with substantial economic and regulatory obstacles, commercial farming in urban areas is surviving and even prospering. In terms of standard models of agriculture in economic development, this is a puzzle. But more detailed, spatial economic models indicate how labor-intensive production of perishable commodities in urbanized areas can make economic sense, especially when coupled with environmental amenities that farming generates for nonfarm people. At the same time, environmental disamenities of agriculture are larger in densely populated areas. The political economy outcomes have tended to be favorable to continued farming, albeit with increased regulation. Nonetheless, many questions remain about the dynamics of agricultural adjustment to urbanization, and the possible steady-state mix of farm and nonfarm activities.

This paper explores bank lending to agriculture in Fiji, a small developing country. It examines bank lending by bank type—commercial bank lending and lending by the Fiji Development Bank (fdb), a non-commercial bank. The findings reveal the importance of both banking types as well as a significant drop in lending since 1993, despite the need to fund the agricultural sector to boost food production activities. Interest rates, government spending and food production strongly determine fdb lending to agriculture. The availability of arable land has a negative and significant effect on fdb lending to agriculture. The results show commercial banks are performing a slightly different role in the agricultural sector than the Fiji Development Bank; they appear to be unresponsive to economic variables that the fdb is responsive to.

[Abstract]The major objective of this study is to identify the effects of land tenure security on Small Scale Commercial agricultural productivity and development inZimbabwe. Using a probit model, the study draws the following conclusions:i. Under a more secure tenure system, farmers are likely to have some longterm investments, in this case in plantation crops.ii. The type of tenure system may not necessarily influence an investment in non-fixed assets like livestock.iii. Secure tenure is likely to influence investment in property improvement fixed assets such as fencing and woodlots.iv. Secure tenure is likely to positively influence an investment in permanent housing facilities but does not seem to influence an investment in associated infrastructure such as garages, workshops or shades.v. Secure tenure seems to be associated with a higher propensity to invest in improving existing farm infrastructure.vi. Freehold tenure system is associated with a higher propensity to access to credit.vii. Tenure security appears not to significantly affect medium term soil improvements. Medium-term and long-term investments on the farm do not seem to have any significant impact on the level of input use.viii. However, contrary to expectations, the results of this study indicate that tenure security may not necessarily result in higher productivity.

The purpose of the study was to investigate how farmers in Quang Bing Province, Vietnam have been making the transition from subsistence farming to commercial agriculture. This process began in 1986 when the Vietnam economy changed from central planning to a market orientation. The research strategy was based on case study analysis of two communes in each of three agro-ecological zones, defined as coastal, plains and mountains. Within each commune there were six embedded household case studies, i.e 36 in total. Case studies were selected purposively to capture diversity of agro-ecological zones, market access and communications, wealth and income status, and ethnic communities. Households were interviewed twice; first in either late 2006 or early 2007, and again in late 2008. The study was approached using a constructivist paradigm and a lens of livelihood analysis, focusing on resources, institutions, interventions and the dynamics of change. Particular attention was given to the development of markets (inputs, outputs, land, labour and credit) and supply chain factors. Separate measures of commercialisation were constructed based on outputs and inputs, and at the level of both individual activities and the overall household. Investigations were informed by existing theory, but no hypotheses were tested. Instead, the research focused on emergent patterns and insights, and the enrichment and modification of existing theory. A review of literature indicated that the transition from subsistence farming to commercial agriculture in Vietnam was different from other countries on account of the specific combination of low technology agriculture, typical of much of developing Asia, combined with the transformation from a centrally planned economy to a market orientation as occurred in Central and Eastern European countries. At commune level, the key determinants of commercialisation were strong physical connections to markets, with good road access being paramount. Once all weather road access for motorised vehicles was available, then rapid commercialisation occurred. Supply chains typically developed faster for outputs than inputs. New technologies that increased the yield of basic food crops, and facilitated by Government and NGO programs, led to the release of land resources no longer required for meeting food security needs. Households retained their production of food crops that provided food security, and added additional cash earning activities. At the level of individual households, the commercialisation process was led by entrepreneurial families who perceived opportunities relating to profitable activities, and combined this with hard work. Often these opportunities were linked to what they had observed or learnt elsewhere. Once first movers took up a new technology, others observed and followed. There were many enabling factors, such as access to land, access to capital, and access to credit. However, none of these could be considered a determinant, in that the absence of any one factor did not by itself preclude successful commercialisation. Absence of an active male worker was a major constraint to commercialisation, as was lack of necessary crop and livestock skills. There was evidence that income disparities were increasing between the wealthy and the poor. Output commerciality across all households averaged 88 % in 2008 and was higher for wealthy households (95 %) than poor households (83 %). All households still produced their own food crops, but these crops had low market values and hence had a low impact on the output commerciality index. Output commerciality measured in percentage terms obscured that wealthy families had net incomes almost 13 times greater than poor households. A major theoretical insight was that key commercialisation factors are multiple and context dependent. Accordingly, there is a need in any investigation for a holistic approach, based on a livelihood framework that incorporates the complexities associated with the development of markets, as well as giving consideration to the range of interventions and institutional policies that impact on livelihood development.

Marijuana has been given many names that connote an underground existence, but rarely been identified as an agricultural crop. California joins a growing number of states to decriminalize adult (recreational) use of cannabis over twenty years after passing California Proposition 215 which decriminalized medical use of marijuana. Illegality kept economic impacts of cannabis agriculture in the shadows; 2008 conservative estimates for California total $20 billion in wholesale value. If, as suggested by California Assemblyman Jim Wood, cannabis is “going to be treated as an agricultural product,” a critical examination of cannabis as agriculture is needed. This research investigates who cannabis cultivators were before legality and where they were located; likewise it explores who are the potential new cannabis cultivators entering the industry. Data indicate the largest concentration of interest in cannabis cultivation is in southern California and that a patchwork of legislation may severely inhibit large-scale cannabis cultivation in regions like the Central Valley.

The Grand Banks commercial fishing industry has been faced with several crises in the past decades. These crises have included the major financial crunch and inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s, as well as the resources collapse of the Northern cod stock and other groundfish stocks in the 1990s followed by the foreign fishing disputes of the mid 1990s. The thesis examines the evolution of the fishing industry in Atlantic Canada during these critical years with focus on the fisheries of the Grand Banks. A linear programming model of the configuration of the Grand Banks commercial fishing fleet is formulated to describe the post 2000 period. The model is driven using the results of an extensive analysis of historical records for this recent period. The model results are validated by comparing them with historical average annual data over the period 2000-2005. The linear programming model is run under several scenarios emulating changes in government policy and economic conditions affecting the harvesting sector. Based on the results, alternative fishing fleet configurations for the Grand Banks fishery are defined to improve the economic viability of the fishing fleet. The model pointed to changes in fleet configuration including a rationalization of the shrimp and crab fleets and a shift to longline vessels with higher-valued product for groundfish harvesting. Once implemented, these suggestions would advance the goals of the new "Oceans to Plate" approach to fisheries management recently announced by Fisheries and Oceans, Canada.

Nigeria has sought to diversify its economy away from dependence on oil as a major source of government revenue through agricultural commercialisation. Agriculture has been a priority sector because it has very high growth potential and the greatest potential for employment and export revenue. The cocoa and rice value chains are central to the government’s engagement with agriculture to achieve these objectives. This paper sets out to investigate the underlying political economy dynamics of the commercialisation of the cocoa and rice value chains in Nigeria in terms of smallholder farm households’ shift from semi-subsistence agriculture to production primarily for market, and predominantly commercial medium- and large-scale farm enterprises complementing or replacing smallholder farm households.

Trucks serve significant amount of freight tonnage and are more susceptible to complex interactions with other vehicles in a traffic stream. While traffic congestion continues to be a significant ‘highway’ problem, delays in truck travel result in loss of revenue to the trucking companies. There is a significant research on the traffic congestion mitigation, but a very few studies focused on data exclusive to trucks. This research is aimed at a regional-level analysis of truck travel time data to identify roads for improving mobility and reducing congestion for truck traffic. The objectives of the research are to compute and evaluate the truck travel time performance measures (by time of the day and day of the week) and use selected truck travel time performance measures to examine their correlation with on-network and off-network characteristics. Truck travel time data for the year 2019 were obtained and processed at the link level for Mecklenburg County, Wake County, and Buncombe County, NC. Various truck travel time performance measures were computed by time of the day and day of the week. Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was performed to select the average travel time (ATT), planning time index (PTI), travel time index (TTI), and buffer time index (BTI) for further analysis. On-network characteristics such as the speed limit, reference speed, annual average daily traffic (AADT), and the number of through lanes were extracted for each link. Similarly, off-network characteristics such as land use and demographic data in the near vicinity of each selected link were captured using 0.25 miles and 0.50 miles as buffer widths. The relationships between the selected truck travel time performance measures and on-network and off-network characteristics were then analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. The results indicate that urban areas, high-volume roads, and principal arterial roads are positively correlated with the truck travel time performance measures. Further, the presence of agricultural, light commercial, heavy commercial, light industrial, single-family residential, multi-family residential, office, transportation, and medical land uses increase the truck travel time performance measures (decrease the operational performance). The methodological approach and findings can be used in identifying potential areas to serve as truck priority zones and for planning decentralized delivery locations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

For Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) and our partners, 2016 was a year of remarkable successes. Not only did we eradicate 10 fruit fly outbreaks, but we also achieved 4 years with zero detections of pink bollworm, moving us one step closer to eradicating this pest from all commercial cotton-growing areas of the continental United States. And when the U.S. corn industry faced the first-ever detection of bacterial leaf streak (Xanthomonas vasicular pv vasculorum), we devised a practical and scientific approach to manage the disease and protect valuable export markets. Our most significant domestic accomplishment this year, however, was achieving one of our agency’s top 10 goals: eliminating the European grapevine moth (EGVM) from the United States. On the world stage, PPQ helped U.S. agriculture thrive in the global market-place. We worked closely with our international trading partners to develop and promote science-based standards, helping to create a safe, fair, and predictable agricultural trade system that minimizes the spread of invasive plant pests and diseases. We reached critical plant health agreements and resolved plant health barriers to trade, which sustained and expanded U.S. export markets valued at more than $4 billion. And, we helped U.S. producers meet foreign market access requirements and certified the health of more than 650,000 exports, securing economic opportunities for U.S. products abroad. These successes underscore how PPQ is working every day to keep U.S. agriculture healthy and profitable.