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Polk, Thomas E. "Decision making strategies : the influence of task complexity, decision importance, decision maker impulsivity, and decision maker gender /." Thesis, This resource online, 1990. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-03122009-040747/.
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Krisandersson, Patric, and Johan Hulthin. "The complexity of the audit process: : Judgment and decision making." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-180174.
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This paper explains what recognition the auditor has of theoretical judgment and decision making subjects surrounding the audit process. The auditors’ judgment and decision making skills seem to be more challenged when it comes to estimating their clients’ valuations. Therefore, the audit process of fair value measures (FVM) is used to charterer the recognition more clearly. Attention to this topic is warranted for several reasons. First, FVM was implemented on the Swedish market in 2005 and is relatively recent to Swedish auditors. Second, to our knowledge no similar study, regarding the Swedish audit firms, has been conducted within this area. Third, the evidence, drawn from previous research, of what recognition the auditors have of the theoretical judgment and decision making subjects seem to be more indirect than direct and we also extend the previous research. We find, through semi-structured interviews with employees of the ‘Big four’, that both judgment and decision making are acknowledged as possible issues. However, we also find that certain areas within these two categories are unrecognized to be of immediate concern.
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Nguyen, Tam Robert. "Using structural complexity to explain decision-making on corporate responsibility." Thesis, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/2225.
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Intra-organizational factors are an important line of inquiry to improve the explanation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) behavior in current theory and management concepts. Contributions from organizational behavior literature were used in this thesis to orient the analysis to the company’s structure in order to provide alternative explanations as to ‘why’ and ‘how’ companies addressed social responsibility issues and activities. Qualitative methods were employed to investigate the structure/decision relationship among a sample of decision processes of multinational business organizations. Conclusions suggest that social responsibility issues and activities can be treated contextually by the company, and its complexity can influence and shape the development of alternatives to address the issues and activities.
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Ortz, Courtney L. "THE INFLUENCE OF WIDOWED STATUS AND TASK COMPLEXITY ON DECISION MAKING." UKnowledge, 2013. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/gerontol_etds/5.
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Widowhood is a stressful life event that can impact an individual’s everyday life, including her decision making abilities. The complexity of the decision is also likely to influence the decision making abilities of these widows. The purpose of this dissertation was to better understand widows’ decision making processes, their preferences for collaboration when making decisions, and their satisfaction with the decision outcomes. Data analysis consisted of a series of 3 (widowed status) x 2 (task complexity) ANOVAS and ANCOVAS which found that both complexity and widowed status influence decision making processes. Higher complexity led to less overall satisfaction, but none of the other satisfaction variables yielded significant results. In addition, there were no significant findings with regard to preferences for collaboration. Multiple linear regressions were conducted to better understand individual difference variables on decision processing. Restoration orientation coping, loss orientation coping, and task complexity were found to be significant for decision processing and satisfaction measures. Future studies should aim to develop decision aids for this particular population so that they are able to make better decisions.
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Karlsson, Marie, and Linda Kraufvelin. "Decision Making under Uncertainty and Complexity : A study of young investors’ decision to buy warrants." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-53045.
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Background: A warrant is a derivative that is normally issued over stocks. During the last financial crisis, the trading of warrants reached new records. The high leverage and the complexity of the product make the warrant a risky investment. Financial products such as warrants therefore imply a significant purchase decision for an individual and the consequences of making a poorly thought-out choice can be of considerable importance. Financial products require a high degree of involvement since the decision process is characterized by uncertainty of outcome and complexity of the product. Traditional theories on consumer decision making build on the assumptions of self-interest and rationality. In the context of financial services, the rationality of the decision process has been questioned within the field of behavioral economics, a field that suggests that the consumer is unable to make rational decisions as well as comparative judgments.
Purpose: With a theoretical basis in the traditional consumer decision process, the purpose of this thesis is to examine and describe the decision making of young investors that buy warrants.
Methodology: The study can be described as abdicative, since the subject of this thesis is based on an empirical problem observed in reality as well as based on existing theories on the subject. The thesis is furthermore a mixed qualitative and quantitative study. The empirical information was gathered using an Internet survey that was sent out to young investors that are members or are connected to financial associations or societies at different universities.
Results: The study is considered to show that the decision making of young investors can be described as neither optimal nor rational when buying warrants. The respondents seldom seem to make efficient and as rational decisions as the traditional decision process model implies. Instead, individual characteristics and attitudes of the young investors affect their decision making.
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Orellana, Salomon E. "Coping with policy-making complexity electoral institutions, diversity, and policy problem-solving /." Diss., Connect to online resource - MSU authorized users, 2008.
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Chinburapa, Vijit. "Physician prescribing decisions: The effects of situational involvement and task complexity on information acquisition and decision-making." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/185478.
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This research utilized a structural analysis of final judgment and a process-tracing method to examine the effects of situational involvement and task complexity on information acquisition and the decision-making process. In addition, the predictive accuracy of the linear model in predicting drug choice across decision situations was assessed. A contingency model for the selection of decision strategies based on a cost/benefit principle was used as a framework in the study. A randomized mixed model factorial design was conducted in which a sample of forty-eight physicians, recruited from the University Medical Center at the University of Arizona, indicated their preferences and choices for hypothetical anti-infective drugs. Subjects were randomly assigned to experimental and control groups. Subjects in the experimental group were told via the written scenario to assume that his/her decision would be reviewed and evaluated by peers and (s)he would be asked to justify drug choice. No mention of peer review was made in the scenario used by the control group. Subjects in both groups were required to perform the two choice tasks and conjoint ranking task. The number of drug alternatives in a choice set was varied between three and six alternatives. The Mouselab program was used to monitor physicians' information acquisition behavior. The measures concerning the amount of information searched, order, duration, direction of search, and the chosen alternative were observed. The conjoint LINMAP program was used to estimate drug attribute importance weights. Results of the study provide support that the information acquisition and decision-making process is contingent on the characteristics of decision tasks. A significant number of subjects shifted from using compensatory to noncompensatory decision-making processes when task complexity increased. The study did not find support for the effects of situational involvement on the decision-making process. However, subjects in the two groups were found to differ in choice outcomes and the attention given to specific drug attribute information. Finally, the study found support for the robustness of the linear models in predicting drug choice across contexts.
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Prosser, Diane Johnson. "Cognitive complexity, problem solving skill, and career decision making : a structural equation model /." The Ohio State University, 1989. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1487675687174987.
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Babaeizadeh, malmiry Roozbeh. "Managing Complexity and Uncertainty by a Modelling Approach for Decision Making in Integrated Product/Process Design." Thesis, Paris, ENSAM, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016ENAM0035/document.
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L'objectif principal lors de la conception et du développement de produits est d'augmenter la valeur de ceux-ci. La Valeur comprend deux aspects : la qualité et le coût. Afin de prendre en compte ces deux aspects, cette thèse se focalise sur la conception intégrée des produits et des processus, et en particulier sur la complexité du processus de conception et les incertitudes associées. Cette thèse propose une approche de modélisation systématique pour maitriser les incertitudes et gérer la complexité. Cette approche comprend deux phases: détermination du modèle et analyse du système. La première phase contient deux propositions : une approche de modélisation de produits basée sur la modélisation des flux d'énergie dans le cadre méthodologique Characteristics-Properties Modelling (CPM). Cette approche donne un cadre qui permet de facilité la transition d’une vue fonctionnelle à une vue structurelle associée à une modélisation quantitative. La seconde proposition porte sur l’aide du concepteur lors de la conception concurrente (IPPD) où à la fois les performances et les coûts sont pris en compte. Cette approche est basée sur le flux du processus en respectant le même cadre (CPM), elle donne aussi un cadre pour la transition fonctionnelle / structurelle. Les modélisations structurelles quantitatives permettent l’analyse de sensibilité, l’analyse des tolérances et l'optimisation. L’application de l'approche est démontrée par une étude de cas industriel.Grâce à cette approche, les caractéristiques modifiables et pertinentes du produit peuvent être déterminées. Le tolérancement peut être intégré dans le processus de conception et son impact sur la performance du produit peut être analysé. Les relations quantitatives du produit, du processus sont identifiées. Les incertitudes dans les relations et dans toutes les étapes de la modélisation peuvent être élicitées et maitrisées. Cette approche systématique donne un cadre pour le concepteur à travers le processus de conception pour prendre des décisions dans tous les niveaux de décomposition sur la base de la fonction requise et le coût de fabrication. L'approche est applicable tant pour la modélisation d'un produit existant (une approche d'optimisation), tant pour la modélisation d'un nouveau produit (phase de conception conceptuelle)The main objective in product design and development is to increase the value of a product. Value includes two aspects of quality and cost. In order to take into account both aspects, this thesis aims at Integrated Product and Process Design, especially on product design complexity and its inherent (associated) complexities. This thesis proposes a systematic modelling approach to reduce uncertainty and manage complexity. The approach includes two phases: model determination and system analysis. The first phase contains two propositions: first, a product modelling approach based on energy flow modelling in the framework of Characteristics-Properties Modelling (CPM). This approach gives a modelling framework for a smoother transition from functional to structural views, with a quantitative modelling. The second proposition is to help the designer for decision making in concurrent designing (IPPD) where both performance and cost are taken into account. This approach is based on the process flows in the same framework (CPM). The second phase is to use the determined model of phase 1 to analyse the system. So, phase 2 includes sensitivity analysis, tolerance analysis and optimisation. An application of the approach is demonstrated through an industrial case study.Thanks to this approach, effective modifiable characteristics of the product on its performance are determined. Tolerancing can be integrated in design process and its impact on the product performance can be analysed. Quantitative links in product, in process and between product elements and process elements are identified. Uncertainty in the links and every step of modelling can be elicited and managed. This systematic approach gives a pathway to the designer through the design process to make decisions in every level of decomposition based on the required function and cost of manufacturing. The approach is applicable for both modelling an existing product (optimisation approach) and modelling a new product (conceptual design phase)
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Grobler, Schalk Willem. "Organisational structure and Elliot Jaques' stratified systems theory." Unisa, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/146.
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Conduct an exploratory study on operationally focussed managers within a South African company, using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, to determine the correlation between the required and actual levels of complexity and time-span of control at specific hierarchical levelsOrganisational design needs to be in line with capabilities of the individual-inrole. The structure of an organization directly impacts the overall effectiveness and ultimately the success of such an organization and the number of layers required in any given hierarchy is a product of the organization’s mission (Jaques, 1989). Stratified Systems Theory (Jaques, 1989) defines work in seven strata based on a basis of decision-making complexity. The research presented here identifies a specific organisation’s current level of work based on complexity and the time-span of decision-making. Research was done in one specific geographical region of a company operating in the Supply Chain and Logistics industry in South Africa. Qualitative data collection was done by means of interviews with a defined sample group that provided an adequate cross-section of the main functions of the business, however, the sampling technique used may not provide results representative of the entire population. ii The Brunel Institute for Organisation and Social Studies’ (BIOSS) Matrix of Working Relationships was used as main basis for reporting results. The research indicates that the organisation is presently, according to Jaques Stratified Systems Theory (Jaques, 1989), operating at one level below their intended level that will allow them to effectively meet their longterm strategic objectives. The report identifies shortcomings in terms of the current capabilities of the individual-in-role and the actual work requirements, setting a foundation for further analysis of individual capabilities for effective organisational design.
Graduate School of Business Leadership
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Hayes, Jared, and n/a. "Reducing the impact of decision complexity in ambulance command and control." University of Otago. Department of Information Science, 2008. http://adt.otago.ac.nz./public/adt-NZDU20080404.160620.
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The overriding goal of this work was to present information to ambulance command and control (AC2) operators in a manner that complemented their dispatchers decision making processes whilst minimising the effects of a number of identified complexities. It was theorised that presenting information in this manner would improve the decision making performance of the dispatchers. The initial stages of this work involved identifying the strategies that AC2 operators use when making decisions regarding the allocation of ambulances to emergency incidents and the complexities associated with these decisions. These strategies were identified after the analysis of interviews with AC2 operators using an interview approach called the Critical Decision Method. The subsequent analysis of the interview transcripts using an Emergent Themes Analysis provided a significant number of insights regarding the decision making processes of the operators and the information required to support these decisions. Of particular significance was the importance of situation awareness in the decision making process. For example, when dispatchers have a sound understanding of incidents and additional factors such as the ambulances under their control, the dispatch decision becomes less complicated.
To extend the understanding of the dispatcher�s work in the communication centres, a number of factors that could contribute to the complexity of the dispatch task were identified from an additional analysis of the interview transcripts. However it was not possible to establish from this the contribution of these factors to the perceived complexity encountered by the operators. To address this, a questionnaire was circulated requiring dispatchers to rate the contribution of a number of factors to the complexity of the dispatch task and the frequency that these factors occurred. The results showed that the most prevalent factors related to a number of the cognitive processes that the dispatchers performed to manage the dispatch task. Such processes included determining the resource most likely to arrive at the scene of an emergency incident the quickest. There were also differences in regard to which areas of the dispatch process the dispatchers in the two centres considered to be the most complex.
The final stage of this research was the design of a prototype interface that complemented the decision making strategies used by the dispatchers and addressed the identified complexities. At this stage the scope of the research was narrowed to focus primarily on the resource assessment and allocation phases of the dispatch process and several of the complexities associated with these. The prototype interface made use of a novel display technology that allowed the presentation of information across two overlapping LCD displays (referred to as a Multi Layered Display (MLD)). To test the effectiveness of this display a laboratory experiment was conducted comparing the perfomance of participants using the MLD with participants using a Single Layered Display (SLD) that presented the same information. The results indicated that in almost all cases the participants using the multi layer display performed better. However these differences did not prove to be significant.
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Milliner, Lloyd A., and n/a. "Systems Thinking and Strategic Decision-Making: A Consideration of Chaos Theory." Griffith University. Griffith Business School, 2006. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20070212.162743.
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Strategic decision-making is a fundamental process in business management as strategic decisions affect the long-term health of the organisation. However, a constantly and unpredictably changing business environment, becoming progressively more complex as time passes makes strategy formulation increasingly difficult. Shock events such as terrorist attacks, rapidly spreading communicable diseases, and unexpected business failures of large and well-established companies greatly affect organisations by making it difficult to effectively plan for the future. This thesis contributes to the strategic decision-making literature by investigating the role of shock events in a complex system, namely strategic decision-making. Using chaos/complexity theory as an intellectual platform this thesis argues that strategic decision-making is a complex, open, dynamic and non-linear system and that shock events can represent an opportunity in strategic decision-making. A number of contemporary writers are calling for more integrated models. In response this research proposes a generic and integrative framework that highlights the complexity of strategic decision-making and its processes. The research is qualitative and a single-case study approach was chosen, examining the decision-making processes in a large Australian regional airport. Data collection was triangulated, consisting mainly of in-depth interviews with executives but also included questionnaires, and quantitative and qualitative archival data. It was found that shock events influenced strategic decision-making by causing evolutionary changes in the strategic decision-making processes. In addition it was found that shock events impacted on internal drivers such as cognition and organisational culture. The shock event was perceived as an opportunity, which resulted in changing decision-making processes a change in business strategy. It was concluded that environmental perception, intuition and an opportunity-seeking culture can play an important part in strategic decision-making following a shock event.
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Mayer, Bradley Wayne. "Cognitive Complexity in Group Performance and Satisfaction." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1996. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc278567/.
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In this study, a comparison was made between the various levels of group cognitive complexity and its relationship to task performance and task satisfaction. The goal of this research is to answer the general question, "Should decision-making groups consist of individuals who are similar in the way they differentiate and/or integrate various stimuli in order to increase performance and satisfaction?"
The preceding research problem was analyzed in a laboratory setting using a 2 X 2 factorial design blocked on the variable, cognitive complexity. The Repertory Grid was used to measure the cognitive complexity of 228 student subjects. These subjects were stratified into groups of three based on their cognitive complexity score on the Repertory Grid (Kelly, 1955). Each group was treated randomly with one of two levels of task complexity (complex or not complex). Moreover, the groups received an imposedgroup structure that incorporated centralized or decentralized decision-making.
Results indicated that groups consisting of cognitively complex members outperformed groups consisting of noncomplex members. No support was obtained for the two-way interaction between group cognitive complexity and either task complexity or group structure. Support was obtained for the interaction between task complexity and group structure on both task satisfaction measures. The highest satisfaction levels occurred with a complex task in a decentralized structure. In addition, the three-way interaction effect on the task satisfaction scale between group structure, task complexity, and group cognitive complexity was significant. The means, however, were not in the predicted direction. For cognitively simple groups, a complex task with a decentralized structure lead to the highest task satisfaction level; whereas, a less complex task with a decentralized group structure lead to the lowest task satisfaction score for noncomplex members. There were no significant differences for cognitively complex groups when analyzing the three-way interaction between group cognitive complexity, task complexity, and group structure.
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Adana, Saban. "Exploring the Impact of Decentralization of Decision Making and Complexity on Supply Chain Resilience." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2020. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1707293/.
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The purpose of this three-essay dissertation is to synthesize and extend the effects of decentralization in decision-making and supply chain complexity in the context of supply chain resilience (SCRES).First essay contributes to theory and practice by expanding resilience thinking into including supply chain orientation and organizational structure and their implications and also responds to prior research arguing for the importance of identifying organizational factors that improve supply chain resilience. Second essay contributes to the supply chain organizational structure and SCRES literature by not just providing empirical support for decentralization of decision making in times of disruptions but more precisely by showing the factors that either impede or facilitate decentralization at the organizational level. Understanding the interplay among these factors is critical to explaining the lack of success for decentralization in the context of SCRES. Third essay contributes to practice by reviewing some of the major complexity drivers present in the supply chains and providing strategies along with a four-step process that practitioners can use to manage complexity.
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Kim, Yushim. "Analysis for adaptive complex public enterprises." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1164742628.
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Monasterolo, Irene, and Candice Howarth. "Opportunities for knowledge co-production across the energy-food-water nexus: Making interdisciplinary approaches work for better climate decision making." Elsevier, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.05.019.
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The relationship between the energy-food-water nexus and the climate is non-linear, multi-sectoral and time sensitive, incorporating aspects of complexity and risk in climate related decision-making. This paper seeks to explore how knowledge co-production can help identify opportunities for building more effective, sustainable, inclusive and legitimate decision making processes on climate change. This would enable more resilient responses to climate risks impacting the nexus while increasing transparency, communication and trust among key actors. We do so by proposing the operationalization of an interdisciplinary approach of analysis applying the novel methodology developed in Howarth and Monasterolo (2016). Through a bottom-up, participative approach, we present results of five themed workshops organized in the UK (focusing on: shocks and hazards, infrastructure, local economy, governance and governments, finance and insurance) featuring 78 stakeholders from academia, government and industry. We present participant's perceptions of opportunities that can emerge from climate and weather shocks across the energy-food-water nexus. We explore opportunities offered by the development and deployment of a transdisciplinary approach of analysis within the nexus boundaries and we analyse their implications. Our analysis contributes to the current debate on how to shape global and local responses to climate change by reflecting on lessons learnt and best practice from cross-stakeholder and cross-sectorial engagement. In so doing, it helps inform a new generation of complex systems models to analyse climate change impact on the food-water-energy Nexus.
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Van, Allen Katherine Lynn. "Effects of group status and cognitive appraisal prime on integrative complexity in a decision making context." College Park, Md.: University of Maryland, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/10030.
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Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2009.Thesis research directed by: Dept. of Psychology. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
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Kolb, Jakob J. "Heuristic Decision Making in World Earth Models." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/22147.
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Die Dynamik des Erdsystems im Anthropozän wird durch eine zunehmende Verschränkung von Prozessen auf physikalischer und ökologischer sowie auf sozioökonomischer Ebene bestimmt. Wenn Modelle als Entscheidungshilfen in diesem Umfeld nützlich sein sollen, müssen sie diese komplexen Rückkopplungen ebenso berücksichtigen wie die inhärent emergenten und heterogenen Qualitäten gesellschaftlicher Dynamik. Diese Arbeit schlägt vor, den Menschen als begrenzten rationalen Entscheidungsträger zu modellieren, die (soziales) Lernen nutzen, um Entscheidungsheuristiken zu erwerben, die in einer gegebenen Umgebung gut funktionieren. Dies wird in einem Wirtschaftsmodell mit zwei Sektoren veranschaulicht, in dem ein Sektor eine fossile Ressource für die wirtschaftliche Produktion verwendet und die Haushalte ihre Investitionsentscheidungen in der zuvor beschriebenen Weise treffen. In der Modellökonomie können individuelle Entscheidungsfindung und soziale Dynamik die CO 2 Emissionen nicht auf ein Niveau begrenzen, das eine globale Erwärmung über 1,5◦C verhindert. Eine Kombination aus kollektivem Handeln und koordinierter öffentlicher Politik allerdings kann. Eine Folgestudie analysiert das soziale Lernen der individuellen Sparquoten in einer Ein-Sektor-Wirtschaft. Hier nähert sich die aggregierte Sparquote der eines intertemporär optimierenden allwissenden Sozialen Planers an, wenn die soziale Interaktionsrate ausreichend niedrig ist. Gleichzeitig führt eine abnehmende Interaktionsrate einem plötzlichen Übergangs von einer unimodalen zu einer stark bimodalen Verteilung des Vermögens unter den Haushalten. Schließlich schlägt diese Arbeit eine Kombination verschiedener Methoden vor, die zur Ableitung analytischer Näherungen für solche vernetzten heterogenen Agentenmodelle verwendet werden können, bei denen Interaktionen zwischen Agenten sowohl auf individueller als auch auf aggregierter Ebene auftreten.The trajectory of the Earth system in the Anthropocene is governed by an increasing entanglement of processes on a physical and ecological as well as on a socio-economic level. If models are to be useful as decision support tools in this environment, they ought acknowledge these complex feedback loops as well as the inherently emergent and heterogeneous qualities of societal dynamics. This thesis improves the capability of social-ecological and socio-economic models to picture emergent social phenomena and uses and extends techniques from dynamical systems theory and statistical physics for their analysis. It proposes to model humans as bounded rational decision makers that use (social) learning to acquire decision heuristics that function well in a given environment. This is illustrated in a two sector economic model in which one sector uses a fossil resource for economic production and households make their investment decisions in the previously described way. In the model economy individual decision making and social dynamics can not limit CO 2 emissions to a level that prevents global warming above 1.5 ◦ C. However, a combination of collective action and coordinated public policy actually can. A follow up study analyzes social learning of individual savings rates in a one sector investment economy. Here, the aggregate savings rate in the economy approaches that of an intertemporarily optimizing omniscient social planner if the social interaction rate is sufficiently low. Sumultaneously, a decreasing interaction rate leads to emergent inequality in the model in the form of a sudden transition from a unimodal to a strongly bimodal distribution of wealth among households. Finally, this thesis proposes a combination of different moment closure techniques that can be used to derive analytic approximations for such networked heterogeneous agent models where interactions between agents occur on an individual as well as on an aggregated level.
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Theodoridis, Constantinos. "Strategic retail location decision-making under uncertainty : an application of complexity theory in the Greek retailing sector." Thesis, Manchester Metropolitan University, 2014. http://e-space.mmu.ac.uk/652/.
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The rapid environmental changes, high levels of uncertainty and difficulty in understanding these situations, make recession a uniquely challenging time for SMEs, particularly with respect to their strategic decision-making. This is especially true for retail SMEs: at the end of the supply chain, they are dependent on consumer buying power. Strategic decision-making in retail SMEs, notably location and expansion decisions, are under-researched, though there is evidence that such decisions are subjective, more an art than a science. These two elements, strategic decision making in SMEs and the context of recession are the focus and contribution of this thesis: the aim of the research was to compile a theoretical framework to portray the emergence of retail location strategies in recession. The research is underpinned by the theoretical domains of strategic location decision-making under the umbrella of complexity theory. The research comprises two case studies of SME electrical retailers in Greece. Pre-recession, these retailers had established track records of aggressive locational expansion and so the impact of the turbulence that accompanied the Greek recession made them ideal exemplar cases for this study. The data collection comprised observation, informal conversations, key informant interviews and focus groups. A thematic analysis approach was taken to the coding, organisation and reporting of the results. The results demonstrate how strategy development is supported by emerging organisational structures, including informal and opportunistic networks that facilitate the diffusion of tacit and explicit knowledge. These networks provide a friendly and supportive environment in which decision-makers are supported in their development of project-specific schemes. Thus this research contributes to understanding the locational decision process, successful locational strategy and strategic development in periods of instability and confusion.
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Beig, Mirza Tanweer Ahmad. "Fractional Calculus and Dynamic Approach to Complexity." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2015. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc822832/.
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Fractional calculus enables the possibility of using real number powers or complex number powers of the differentiation operator. The fundamental connection between fractional calculus and subordination processes is explored and affords a physical interpretation for a fractional trajectory, that being an average over an ensemble of stochastic trajectories. With an ensemble average perspective, the explanation of the behavior of fractional chaotic systems changes dramatically. Before now what has been interpreted as intrinsic friction is actually a form of non-Markovian dissipation that automatically arises from adopting the fractional calculus, is shown to be a manifestation of decorrelations between trajectories. Nonlinear Langevin equation describes the mean field of a finite size complex network at criticality. Critical phenomena and temporal complexity are two very important issues of modern nonlinear dynamics and the link between them found by the author can significantly improve the understanding behavior of dynamical systems at criticality. The subject of temporal complexity addresses the challenging and especially helpful in addressing fundamental physical science issues beyond the limits of reductionism.
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Lopez, Felip Maurici Abraham. "A SCALE TO MEASURE THE COMPLEXITY AND PERCEPTUAL-COGNITIVE SKILLS IN SOCCER." OpenSIUC, 2014. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/1489.
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The complexity of dynamical systems (spanning brain, body and environment) can yield complex adaptive behaviors from non-linear interactions of individuals in space and time. A lack of reliable instruments to assess these varying behaviors results in inferences of how changes in behavior occurred over an extended period of time rather than being based on direct scientific measures. The aim of this study was to develop a scale of complexity and perceptual-cognitive skills' assessment in the sport soccer and to evaluate structural and criterion reliability. Based on the embodied cognition literature, the construct of this scale was identified with three dimensions to assess perceptual-cognitive performance of players when acting within different levels of complex team synergies. A sample of 10 soccer coaches - group A (n = 5 coaches; M = 24 yrs professional coaching experience) and group B (n = 5 coaches; M = 1 year of amateur coaching experience) were recruited to participate in the study. A total of 100 clips of 10 previously recorded soccer matches were analyzed in two assessment periods with one month between the end of the first assessment and the beginning of the second. This resulted in a combined total of 1000 measures used for the study. The results demonstrated that high skilled coaches were more reliable in the complexity dimension (r = 0.87) and also in the decision making dimension (r = 0.79) than low qualified coaches (r = 0.79) and (r = 0.71) respectively; and the complexity dimension was more stable across trials between professional and amateur coaches in the first data collection i (r = 0.79) and second data collection (r = 0 .73) than the decision making dimension (r = 0.50) and (r = 0.43) respectively. These findings indicate that this scale is reliable across applications and at different times with high and low qualified coaches. The use of the scale may be useful for identifying elements of emerging complexity at the team-fractal-player level; determine a perceptual-cognitive profile in athletes; and to better understand complex tactical dynamics in soccer.
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Joshi, Anay. "Geometric Complexity based Process Selection and Redesign for Hybrid Additive Manufacturing." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin151091601846356.
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Atkins, Lois Major. "Organization Features and School Performance." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/27796.
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The purpose of this study was to determine the odds of school organization features predicting schools meeting district or state performance goals. The school organization features were organizational complexity, shared decision making, and leadership behavior. The dependent variable was school performance, operationally defined as a principalâ s yes response or no response to the question, â did your school meet district or state performance goals.â The independent variables representing organizational complexity were school size, diversity of role, span of control. The independent variables representing shared decision making were curriculum influence, policy influence, and professional development influence. The leadership behavior feature was a composite variable. The percent of school lunch was the covariate, as determined by the percentage of students receiving free lunch and reduced price lunch.
The sample for this study was taken from the 1999-2000 Schools and Staffing Surveys (SASS) Public-Use Data (NCES: 2004-372) collected by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). The sample consisted of 5,312 public schools and 5,312 public school principals. Data from the SASS Public School Questionnaire and the SASS Public School Principal Questionnaire were used for the data analysis.
The methods of data analysis consisted of the identification of indicator variables from SASS, the development of scales, and the fitting of a parsimonious logistic regression model. A principal components analysis was used to extract patterns of association among the indicator variables, shared decision making and leadership behavior.
The logistic regression analysis revealed that the best model for predicting the odds of whether schools would meet district or state performance goals consisted of the variables curriculum influence, policy influence, professional development influence, size, diversity of role, span of control, and the covariate, percent of free lunch. The significant variables were curriculum influence, policy influence, professional development influence, and span of control. The odds of school organization features predicting whether schools would meet performance goals was estimated to be .7243, which was less than one or less than chance. There were several limitations of this study that need to be considered when interpreting the results.Ed. D.
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Corral, Nadine Esther. "Dealing with complexity and ambiguity: The nature and influence of educational values and beliefs on administrative decision making." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/186752.
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Changing societal needs and concerns about the educational status of America's students have spawned nation-wide reform efforts. Many of these have targeted principals' practices. This study was focused on one set of variables important in understanding these practices, namely, educational values and beliefs. The participants* in this study were eight elementary school principals whose schools were representative of the linguistic, ethnic, and economic diversity of the community in which the study was conducted. Data regarding decision making events involving complex or ambiguous school issues were obtained from a questionnaire and an interview with each principal. Areas of examination included (a) types of issues perceived as complex or ambiguous, (b) values and beliefs about these issues, (c) the influence of values and beliefs on decisions about these issues, (d) other factors influencing decisions, (e) the use of values and beliefs in responding to these factors, (f) how dealing with these issues affected values and beliefs, and (g) how values and beliefs were used to define roles. Qualitative techniques were used to analyze data: content analysis, Flanagan's (1954) Critical Incident Technique, and interaction schemas. A conceptual model was developed as a framework for analyzing and interpreting interview data. These principals perceived the most complex school issues to originate at the building level, and the most ambiguous at the district level. Principals used educational values and beliefs to clarify goals, guide and evaluate action, and validate judgment. They differed in factors they attempted to influence, goals they established, and problem solving strategies they selected. Understanding the nature and influence of educational values and beliefs on decisions about complex or ambiguous school issues is significant in furthering research on principals' practices, and helping to clarify the kind of vision needed for successful students and effective schools. Note*. "Participants" was selected instead of "subjects" because the researcher was describing phenomena rather than attempting to manipulate variables. By providing information and feedback, these principals participated in the development of a conceptual model and confirmation of the data analysis.
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Amer, Tarek S. "An experimental investigation of the effects of multi-cue financial information display and task complexity on decision making." The Ohio State University, 1989. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1277394380.
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King, Tracey Marie. "Consumer decisions in a complex world measurement concerns, scale development, and validation in a healthcare context /." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/19833.
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Thesis (Ph.D)--Management, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008.Committee Chair: Malhotra, Naresh; Committee Member: Feldman, Jack; Committee Member: Jayaraman, Sundaresan; Committee Member: Ulgado, Francis; Committee Member: Wong, Nancy.
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Domercant, Jean Charles. "ARC-VM: an architecture real options complexity-based valuation methodology for military systems-of-systems acquisitions." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/42928.
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An Architecture Real Options Complexity-Based Valuation Methodology (ARC-VM) is developed for use to aid in the acquisition of military systems-of-systems (SoS). ARC-VM is suitable for acquisition-level decision making, where there is a stated desire for more informed tradeoffs between cost, schedule, and performance during the early phases of design. First, a framework is introduced to measure architecture complexity as it directly relates to military SoS. Development of the framework draws upon a diverse set of disciplines, including Complexity Science, software architecting, measurement theory, and utility theory. Next, a Real Options based valuation strategy is developed using techniques established for financial stock options that have recently been adapted for use in business and engineering decisions. The derived complexity measure provides architects with an objective measure of complexity that focuses on relevant complex system attributes. These attributes are related to the organization and distribution of SoS functionality and the sharing and processing of resources. The use of Real Options provides the necessary conceptual and visual framework to quantifiably and traceably combine measured architecture complexity, time-valued performance levels, as well as programmatic risks and uncertainties. An example suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) capability demonstrates the development and utility of the resulting architecture complexity&Real Options based valuation methodology. Different portfolios of candidate system types are used to generate an array of architecture alternatives that are then evaluated using an engagement model. This performance data is combined with both measured architecture complexity and programmatic data to assign an acquisition value to each alternative. This proves useful when selecting alternatives most likely to meet current and future capability needs.
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Grotsky, Dan Moshe 1971. "A new framework for making sourcing decisions regarding low-volume, high-complexity products." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/34719.
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Thesis (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science; in conjunction with the Leaders for Manufacturing Program at MIT, February 2002.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 49-50).
Compaq Computer Corporation's High Performance Systems Business Unit (HPSBU) manufactures a series of high-end computer servers called Alpha Servers. These servers are manufactured in relatively low volumes, typically for large institutions that require complex computer systems - either rapid number processing, as in scientific applications, or massive data processing, as in large database applications. They are mostly custom-configured for each customer, each server specifically assembled, and each system specifically configured to meet each customer's needs. As computer manufacturing processes become more standardized, and computers almost commoditized, it becomes impractical to manufacture all system components in-house. To that extent, Compaq has gradually outsourced more and more of the functions, which, combined, are necessary to deliver finished product to Compaq's Alpha Server customers. For instance, as computer manufacturing technology progressed, it quickly became evident, that keyboard manufacturing can, and should, be outsourced to a contract manufacturer, which can achieve economies of scale and produce large quantities of standard keyboards at minimal cost. On the other extreme, Compaq has made sure to keep most of its core competencies in-house, in order to preserve its competitive advantage. The key question faced by Compaq today is which functions to preserve in-house, and which to outsource. A new conceptual model for making this make or buy decision is presented. The purpose of this model is to raise the numerous issues at stake when considering outsourcing of a particular function, specifically when dealing with low-volume, high-complexity products, such as the Alpha Server. This model provides Compaq with a structured method of analyzing the various components that make up the finished product delivered to the customer, and deciding which need to be maintained in-house, which should be outsourced, and which of those can be outsourced. Initial model implementation was performed on the latest Alpha Server product family, dubbed Miracle for the purpose of this document.
by Dan Moshe Grotsky.
S.M.
M.B.A.
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Ryan, Anthony Michael. "An investigation of forecasting behaviour." Connect to thesis, 2002. http://repository.unimelb.edu.au/10187/1541.
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To manage an uncertain future relevant societal groups, such as government and corporate sectors, utilise economic forecasts to help plan future strategies. Many vital decisions are based on economic forecasts. Economists have traditionally been the professionals employed as economic forecasting experts. The dominant paradigm for present day forecasting is the "rational expectations theory", which assumes that a forecaster is capable of making optimal use all of the available information. The field of psychology offers a different, yet complementary, approach to the topic of economic forecasting. The aim of the current study was to research mental processes and behaviours of individuals participating in a forecasting task. The role of the following psychological variables within economic prediction behaviour was assessed: (1) task complexity, (2) decision making style, (3) the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, (4) the framing effect, and (5) personal feelings about the task content. All of these variables were hypothesised to have a direct influence on prediction behaviour. In addition, task complexity and decision making style were assumed to moderate the influence of the other psychological variables. A conceptual framework was designed to depict the assumed relationships. (For complete abstract open document)
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Bartels, Julia. "How a feedback system enhances vendor reputation, mitigates product complexity and facilitates online purchase decision-making : insights from B2C transaction logs." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2015. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/808433/.
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Despite the growing population of Internet customers, purchasing online can still be a confusing and overwhelming activity. Perceived risk plays a crucial role in online buying decisions. The mechanism of online customer feedback has been identified to improve trust and to reduce risk in online marketplaces. Feedback from previous customers greatly builds online vendor reputation and establishes trust, which positively influence the intent to purchase. This study aims to find out how a feedback system enhances vendor reputation and can thereby be used to mitigate product complexity and facilitate online purchasing decisions in the B2C environment. The cooperation with a feedback company creates an experimental setting that allows a relationship between positive feedback, conversion rate, arbitrations and feedback submissions to be inferred. The access to real feedback and transaction data allows the investigation of actual risk perception and the need for risk evaluation. This study considers both the user’s and the vendor’s interaction with the feedback system. Nelson’s (1970) product classification is used to divide product categories into different levels of product complexity. The study follows a positivist quantitative approach and applies deductive strategies and procedures to address the research objective. The author presents a number of hypotheses and has analysed data from 400 online stores that have implemented a feedback system. Transaction and feedback data were drawn from a feedback company database and have been analysed using linear regression and partial correlation. The results of this research indicate that product complexity has an inevitable influence upon an online buying process. The greater the transaction value (average price) and the functional/technical complexity of the product (product complexity), the more the presence of feedback grows in importance. However, the aspect of trust, that emerged due to of the percentage of positive feedback by past customers, only influences sales of highly complex products, which means that product category matters with regard to the trust transference theory. The findings identified different risk types which corraborate the theory that risk is multi-faceted. Finally this study provides valuable insights about the vendor's strategic work with a feedback system. The conclusions provide suggestions for online vendors as to how they can use online feedback systems as tools for dealing with the shortcomings associated with electronic commerce. It is important for vendors of complex products to invest in their reputation and to establish trust on the basis of feedback that is as positive as possible. By better understanding the relationships among positive reputation profiles and certain risk types (financial risk, product risk, physical risk, time risk), vendors may be able to take more appropriate actions in their efforts to make shopping online a less risky experience and motivate certain behaviour, such as purchasing. It is recommended that the vendor carries out proper complaint management in the form of arbitration procedures on negative feedback. A feedback system gives online vendors the advantage of protecting themselves against the negative opinions spread on the World Wide Web. The process of arbitrations enables vendors to show competence and has the ability to turn dissatified customers into satisfied customers. In order to enhance the online reputation, organisations should offer workshops on the efficacy of working with a feedback system and how to conduct arbitrations properly.
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Hultberg, Carl. "Technical decision-making in startups and its impact on growth and technical debt." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-299623.
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The rapid pace of digitalization has resulted in increased management of software development, and today a majority of startups are reliant on software. How to manage software development projects is a well-researched area and agile methods are widely adopted by companies in all industries and sizes. However, prior to working with agile methods or any other software development methodology, the founders and management of a startup have to make several technical decisions that could potentially affect the whole software development process and the company's success. Furthermore, studies show that only three programming languages are known by more than 50% of developers, suggesting that the potential effects of technical decisions stretch outside the software development process. By performing a multiple-case study on startups with a mixed-methodology approach, the researcher has analyzed the literature, interviewed several founders and Chief Technology Officers, and quantitatively analyzed hundreds of thousand lines of code, to find how to organize to make better technical decisions in order to enhance growth and generate less technical debt. The results show that the effects of technical decisions stretch outside the software development process, having an apparent effect on a startup's ability to attract and retain talent. Furthermore, the results show that access to talent is an important but not deciding factor in technical decision-making. Additionally, it is found that in the initial stage of a startup, ease of development and speed are important factors in technical decisions as the main objective is to find product-market fit. When product-market fit has been found and the startup matures, the focus shifts and quality and durability are becoming prominent factors. It is found that scooping features only to implement the absolute core functionality is an effective approach to develop quickly and generate less technical debt while maintaining customer satisfaction. Lastly, it is found that programming language affects the number of issues generated per line of code and the time spent on building features. However, as found in the literature, there is no evidence of this being related to the type of programming language. The findings have both practical and academic implications. In academics, this thesis lays the foundation for further studies and provides new insights into the field of startups in general, and technical decision-making in particular. For practitioners, this thesis provides a basis for discussion and execution of technical decisions in the early stages of a startup.Den snabba digitaliseringen har resulterat i en ökad ledning av mjukvaruutveckling och idag är majoriteten av startups beroende av någon form av mjukvara. Hur man leder mjukvaruutvecklingsprojekt är ett välutforskat område och agila metoder är välanvända i företag i alla industrier och storlekar. Innan man arbetar med agila metoder eller någon annan mjukvarutvecklingsmetod så måste grundarna och ledningen ta flera tekniska beslut som potentiellt kan påverka hela mjukvaruutvecklingsprocessen och företagets framgång. Samtidigt finns det studier som visar att endast tre programmeringsspråk hanteras av mer än 50% av utvecklarna, vilket indikerar att de potentiella effekterna av tekniska beslut sträcker sig långt utanför mjukvaruutvecklingsprocessen. Genom att utföra en flerfallsstudie på startups med både kvalitativa och kvantitativa moment, har forskaren analyserat literaturen, intervjuat flertalet grundare och tekniska chefer, och kvantitativt analyserat hundratusentals rader kod, för att undersöka hur startups kan organisera sig för att ta bättre tekniska beslut som förbättrar tillväxten samt genererar mindre teknisk skuld. Resultaten visar att effekten av tekniska beslut sträcker sig långt utanför mjukvaruutvecklingsprocessen genom att ha en direkt påverkan på startups möjlighet att attrahera och behålla talang. Tillgången till talang visar sig även vara en viktig faktor i teknisk beslutsfattande, däremot är den inte en avgörande faktor. Dessutom visar resultaten att i det initiala stadiet av en startup så är enkelhet och hastighet viktiga faktorer i tekniskt beslutsfattande eftersom fokus ligger på att hitta produkt-marknads-anpassning. När produkt-marknads-anpassning är funnen och startupen mognar, så skiftar dessa faktorerna över till kvalité och hållbarhet. Resultaten visar även att en effektiv metod för att utveckla snabbt och skapa mindre teknisk skuld är att skala ner förfrågningar till dess absolut grundfunktionalitet, samtidigt visade det sig att kundnöjdheten inte minskade. Slutligen visar resultaten att val av programmeringsspråk har en effekt på antalet issues genererade per rad kod och även tiden spenderad för att bygga features. Däremot, precis som i tidigare forskning, finns det inga bevis på att det är relaterat till typen av programmeringsspråk. Resultaten har både praktiska och akademiska implikationer. I den akademiska världen så lägger detta arbetet en grund för framtida forskning och ger nya insikter i startupfältet generellt, och tekniskt beslutsfattande i startups i synnerhet. För utövare, lägger detta arbetet en bra bas för diskussion och verkställande av tekniska beslut i startups.
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Singh, Shweta. "Incorporating Biogeochemical Cycles and Utilizing Complexity Theory for Sustainability Analysis." The Ohio State University, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1345519020.
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Billett, Jane. "'Balancing complexity, resources and demand' : a grounded theory of clinical decision making in psychological therapy for older people with posttraumatic stress symptoms." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/9871.
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Background: Preliminary evidence suggests there are differences in how older people and younger people with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) present. However, currently little robust evidence exists relating to the presentation, assessment and intervention of PTSD in a rapidly ageing population. Faced with limited and conflicting evidence, clinical psychologists are reliant on their clinical expertise to make decisions in this context. Method: Eight studies reporting current prevalence of PTSD in older people were systematically reviewed. Semi-structured interviews with eight clinical psychologists with experience of assessment and intervention of post-traumatic stress symptomology in older people were analysed according to grounded theory methods. The analysis abstracted categories of data to construct a substantive theory of clinical decision making in this context. Results: Current and 12 month prevalence of PTSD ranged from 0.7% to 4.0% and 0.2% to 0.4% respectively. Partial PTSD was estimated at 1% to 10%. The quality of evidence limits the generalisability of the results. ‘Balancing complexity, resources and demand’ emerged from participants’ accounts as the core theoretical category, underpinning decision making in this context. Seven sub-categories comprise the model, ‘culture’; ‘NHS’; ‘clinician competencies’; “what the client brings”; ‘reconciling understanding’; ‘tailoring’ and ‘therapeutic relationship’. Conclusions: PTSD appears to be relatively rare among older people but more research is required to better understand the presentation and prevalence of full and partial PTSD. The theoretical model is broadly consistent with extant literature pertaining to the adaptation of psychological therapy for older people, offering further detail on implementation and the influence of treatment non-specific factors.
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Vanni, Fabio. "Criticality in Cooperative Systems." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2012. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc271910/.
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Cooperative behavior arises from the interactions of single units that globally produce a complex dynamics in which the system acts as a whole. As an archetype I refer to a flock of birds. As a result of cooperation the whole flock gets special abilities that the single individuals would not have if they were alone. This research work led to the discovery that the function of a flock, and more in general, that of cooperative systems, surprisingly rests on the occurrence of organizational collapses. In this study, I used cooperative systems based on self-propelled particle models (the flock models) which have been proved to be virtually equivalent to sociological network models mimicking the decision making processes (the decision making model). The critical region is an intermediate condition between a highly disordered state and a strong ordered one. At criticality the waiting times distribution density between two consecutive collapses shows an inverse power law form with an anomalous statistical behavior. The scientific evidences are based on measures of information theory, correlation in time and space, and fluctuation statistical analysis. In order to prove the benefit for a system to live at criticality, I made a flock system interact with another similar system, and then observe the information transmission for different disturbance values. I proved that at criticality the transfer of information gets the maximal efficiency. As last step, the flock model has been shown that, despite its simplicity, is sufficiently a realistic model as proved via the use of 3D simulations and computer animations.
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McLucas, Alan Charles Civil Engineering Australian Defence Force Academy UNSW. "An investigation into the integration of qualitative and quantitative techniques for addressing systemic complexity in the context of organisational strategic decision-making." Awarded by:University of New South Wales - Australian Defence Force Academy. School of Civil Engineering, 2001. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/38744.
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System dynamics modelling has been used for around 40 years to address complex, systemic, dynamic problems, those often described as wicked. But, system dynamics modelling is not an exact science and arguments about the most suitable techniques to use in which circumstances, continues. The nature of these wicked problems is investigated through a series of case studies where poor situational awareness among stakeholders was identified. This was found to be an underlying cause for management failure, suggesting need for better ways of recognising and managing wicked problem situations. Human cognition is considered both as a limitation and enabler to decision-making in wicked problem environments. Naturalistic and deliberate decision-making are reviewed. The thesis identifies the need for integration of qualitative and quantitative techniques. Case study results and a review of the literature led to identification of a set of principles of method to be applied in an integrated framework, the aim being to develop an improved way of addressing wicked problems. These principles were applied to a series of cases in an action research setting. However, organisational and political barriers were encountered. This limited the exploitation and investigation of cases to varying degrees. In response to a need identified in the literature review and the case studies, a tool is designed to facilitate analysis of multi-factorial, non-linear causality. This unique tool and its use to assist in problem conceptualisation, and as an aid to testing alternate strategies, are demonstrated. Further investigation is needed in relation to the veracity of combining causal influences using this tool and system dynamics, broadly. System dynamics modelling was found to have utility needed to support analysis of wicked problems. However, failure in a particular modelling project occurred when it was found necessary to rely on human judgement in estimating values to be input into the models. This was found to be problematic and unacceptably risky for sponsors of the modelling effort. Finally, this work has also identified that further study is required into: the use of human judgement in decision-making and the validity of system dynamics models that rely on the quantification of human judgement.
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Vidal, Ludovic-Alexandre. "Thinking project management in the age of complexity : particular implications on project risk management." Phd thesis, Ecole Centrale Paris, 2009. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00546695.
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Un projet est un effort temporaire et unique entrepris pour fournir un résultat. Ce résultat est toujours unchangement pour l'organisation, qu'il prenne effet dans ses processus, sa performance, ses produits ouservices. De nombreux manques ont été détectés tant dans le monde industriel que dans le mondeacadémique dans la mesure où les paramètres usuels (délai, coût, qualité) ne sont clairement plus suffisantspour permettre de décrire et gérer le projet à un instant t. Dès lors, les méthodes actuelles ne sont plussuffisantes pour répondre aux enjeux grandissant de la complexité projet, source de nombreux risques.Cette thèse de doctorat propose de penser le management de projet dans ces contextes de complexité encherchant à comprendre comment des aspects liés à la complexité peuvent être intégrés plus efficacementdans les pratiques de management de projet, et plus particulièrement dans le processus de management desrisques projets. Elle commence par définir les concepts nécessaires puis vise à décrire dans un premiertemps ce qu'est la complexité projet grâce à l'élaboration d'un référentiel de complexité projet. Ceréférentiel est ensuite raffiné à travers la réalisation d'une étude Delphi internationale. Ce référentiel raffinépermet alors de construire une structure hiérarchique de type Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) et d'endéduire un indicateur relatif de complexité projet. En pratique cette approche permet notammentd'identifier les projets les plus complexes à l'intérieur d'un portefeuille ou les zones les plus complexes àl'intérieur d'un projet, afin d'assister le management de projets complexes. Ensuite, ce rapport a l'ambitionde décrire les conséquences de la complexité projet et de comprendre en quoi les méthodes actuelles demanagement des risques projet ne permettent pas de prendre en compte convenablement certains effets dela complexité. Cette thèse de doctorat propose alors deux approches innovantes pour assister lemanagement des risques des projets complexes. La première est une approche fondée sur la penséesystémique et qui repose sur l'introduction du concept de vulnérabilité projet. La seconde se fonde quant àelle principalement sur une approche analytique dont l'ambition est de regrouper les risques en fonction deleur niveau d'interaction potentielle (en termes de possibilité de relation de cause à effet) afin de faciliter lacoordination. L'ensemble des résultats est testé et illustré grâce à des études de cas diverses (dans lessecteurs de l'industrie automobile, pharmaceutique, du spectacle et de la construction).
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Orndorff, Albert Leslie. "A mixed methods study of school board member decision-making in student drug violations| Extending the fletcher et al. attributional complexity survey with individual interviews." Thesis, Shenandoah University, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3738941.
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One of the major initiatives found in the Improving America’s Schools Act of 1995 was a focus on school safety and security relative to the perceived negative impact of violence generated from guns and illicit drugs. This tougher stand manifested itself in the federal requirement that states adopt laws requiring the expulsion of students for drug violations unless special circumstances were determined to exist. If special circumstances existed then another disciplinary action may be administered. Special circumstances are not defined in the federal law and have not been defined in the subsequent Virginia law. The lack of clarity in the federal and state laws, and their application by school boards has yielded nearly 25 years of widely varying sanctions by local divisions for student drug offenses.
This mixed methods research study analyzed the relationship between the individual school board member’s level of attributional complexity (AC) measured by the Fletcher et al. AC scale and their decision-making in assigning a disciplinary sanction in student drug violations. This research study also analyzed school board members’ level of AC in decision-making with the accumulated hours of training provide through the Virginia School Boards Association (VSBA), years of experience as a school board member, level of confidence in the decision made, and a school board that delegates to the superintendent authority to conduct a preliminary hearing compared to a board that does not delegate the hearing. Individual follow-up interviews extended exploration into other possible factors that influenced decision-making in student drug cases.
The explanatory design methodology provided a structure for identifying trends in judicial decision-making by school board members to aide in explaining how each independent variable may affect the individual participant level of AC. This mixed methods study has a strong quantitative orientation with the final report having two distinct consecutively developed sections. The second qualitative section is built on further explaining the emerging trends in school board decision-making. The survey asked participants if they were willing to participate in a follow-up interview. From this pool of volunteer participants, a purposeful selection was conducted of varying demographic elements to ensure coverage of varying levels of AC, large and small school divisions, gender, age, training and board experience.
The statistical analysis of the quantitative questions suggests that there are no statistical significant differences between the individual level of AC of a school board member and any of the aforementioned factors. The qualitative phase of the study suggests that decision-making is contextual to the individual school board. This context consists of a combination of factors with the dominate theme including the recommendation of the superintendent, and the board’s interpretation of appropriate sanctions grounded by a strict or flexible application of code and policy. Secondary decision-making factors which emerged were: 1. student accountability through assignment of discipline; 2. the need to maintain a safe drug-free environment for all students; 3. the need to continue the drug-violating student’s educational development; and, 4. the need for drug dependency assessment and intervention.
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Shuttleworth, Christina Cornelia. "Towards a financial literacy model as a coordinating interface between financial information and decision makers." Thesis, Pretoria : [s.n.], 2009. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-09262009-093743/.
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Ebert, Philipp Samuel [Verfasser], Stefan [Akademischer Betreuer] Winter, Matti [Gutachter] Kuittinen, Stefan [Gutachter] Winter, and Annette [Gutachter] Hafner. "Value-Based Decision Making Within the Complexity of Building Construction : Development of a System Model of Building Construction for the Derivation of a Holistic Value-Based Decision Making Approach / Philipp Samuel Ebert ; Gutachter: Matti Kuittinen, Stefan Winter, Annette Hafner ; Betreuer: Stefan Winter." München : Universitätsbibliothek der TU München, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1225864798/34.
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Visentini, Monize Sâmara. "Análise da influência do compartilhamento da informação e da complexidade da tarefa na decisão em grupo." Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, 2010. http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/4552.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorDecision making is crucial for enterprises, being frequently done by groups. However, the way information is shared among groups, as well as the complexity of the task being analyzed might affect the quality of group decision. Thus, the following research aims to identify how information sharing and task complexity influence on group decision. Besides, it is aimed to (a) validate a decisive task related to information sharing and task complexity; b) verify the way information sharing affects taking decisions in groups and; c) illustrate the effect of task complexity in group decisive process. Four hypotheses were drawn in order to corroborate these objectives. The methodology applied was an almost-experimental research conducted in a laboratory, having as independent variables the information sharing and task complexity; and as a dependent variable, group decision. In order to contemplate those variables, the applied task has been adapted from Stasser and Stewart (1992) and Fraidin (2004), and is denominated Murder Mystery . This task went through a process of reverse translation, cultural adaptation, and two validations corroborating the first specific objective of this research. It was used a system for data collection developed specifically for the experiment, STAR Individual x SER Grupo . Besides, group discussions were followed by observers previously trained and recorded for further analysis. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted. The number of undergraduate students taking part in the experiment was 144. Concerning specific objectives, it was observed that there were no differences between the quality of the decision from both groups, independently of the type of information sharing, good decisions were taken. Fisher s test has been applied to the decisions with total and partial sharing. It was also compared the decisions taken by groups that mad a simple task and the ones of a complex one, with no statistically significance for Fisher s test, leading to the fact that there is no difference between the quality of the decision taken by groups that made a simple task and groups that made complex ones. However, the more a task is complex; the less information is discussed by a member of the group, jeopardizing decision making. All the research objectives were reached. In a general sense, through testing four hypotheses, there was no influence of information sharing and task complexity in group decision, opposing a great part of the literature, indicating that more studies on this topic are necessary.
O ato de decidir é crucial para as empresas, sendo freqüente que grupos o realizem. Entretanto, a forma como a informação é compartilhada entre os membros do grupo, bem como o grau de complexidade da tarefa que está sendo analisada podem afetar a qualidade da decisão grupal. Dessa forma, esta pesquisa visa identificar como o compartilhamento da informação e a complexidade da tarefa influenciam a decisão em grupo. Além disso, ainda busca-se (a) validar uma tarefa decisória relacionada ao compartilhamento de informações e a complexidade da tarefa; b) verificar como o compartilhamento de informações afeta a tomada de decisão em grupo e; c) ilustrar o efeito da complexidade da tarefa no processo decisório grupal. Quatro hipóteses foram traçadas a fim de corroborar esses objetivos. Como metodologia de investigação realizou-se um quase-experimento em laboratório, tendo como variáveis independentes o compartilhamento da informação e a complexidade da tarefa, e como variável dependente a decisão em grupo. Para contemplar essas variáveis, a tarefa aplicada foi adaptada de Stasser e Stewart (1992) e Fraidin (2004), e denomina-se Mistério do Assassinato . Essa tarefa passou por um processo de tradução reversa, adaptação cultural e duas validações corroborando ao primeiro objetivo específico deste trabalho. Para a aplicação da mesma foi utilizado um sistema de coleta de dados desenvolvido especificamente para este experimento, o STAR Individual x SER Grupo. Além disso, as discussões dos grupos foram acompanhadas por observadores previamente treinados e gravadas para posterior análise. Foram realizadas análises quantitativa e qualitativa dos dados. Ao total participaram do experimento 144 estudantes de graduação. Com relação do aos objetivos específicos, observou-se, através do Teste de Fisher aplicado às decisões tomadas pelos grupos com compartilhamento total e parcial, que não houve diferenças entre a qualidade da decisão de ambos os grupos, sendo que independentemente do tipo de compartilhamento da informação boas decisões foram tomadas. Também se comparou as decisões tomadas pelos grupos que realizaram a tarefa simples e os que realizaram a tarefa complexa, não encontrando significância estatística para o Teste de Fisher, indicando não haver diferença entre a qualidade da decisão tomada pelos grupos que realizaram tarefas simples e os grupos que realizaram tarefas complexas. Entretanto, verificou-se que quanto maior a complexidade da tarefa menor número de informações discutidas pelo membro do grupo, o que pode prejudicar a tomada de decisão. Todos os objetivos da pesquisa foram atingidos. De um modo geral, a partir do teste de quatro hipóteses, não se verificou influência do compartilhamento da informação e da complexidade da tarefa na decisão em grupo, contrariando grande parte da literatura, o que indica que mais estudos acerca dessa temática tornam-se necessários.
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Jabot, Françoise. "L'évaluation des politiques publiques : cadres conceptuel et étude de son utilisation par les décideurs des institutions régionales de santé en France." Thesis, Université de Lorraine, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014LORR0201/document.
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Contexte : Malgré une volonté affichée traduite dans des textes et procédures, l’évaluation en France n’est que peu intégrée dans le processus de décision. Pourtant, dans le secteur de la santé confronté à de multiples défis, l’évaluation pourrait être une approche utile à la détermination des choix. L’utilisation de l’évaluation dépend d’une pluralité de facteurs, dont les connaissances produites et leur mode de production, les caractéristiques des décideurs et autres utilisateurs et le contexte sociopolitique et institutionnel de l’évaluation. Objectifs : Les objectifs de ce travail sont d’apprécier l’utilisation de l’évaluation dans les politiques de santé, d’identifier les leviers associés à cette utilisation et d’apprécier la capacité de l’évaluation à satisfaire les attentes et favoriser l’utilisation de ses productions. Méthode : Une revue de littérature a permis d’enrichir la compréhension du concept d’utilisation, d’identifier les facteurs influents et de faire émerger les problématiques associées. Considérant l’évaluation comme un système d’action complexe, un modèle basé sur une approche systémique a été construit et mis à l’épreuve à travers quatre étapes d’analyse des évaluations des plans régionaux de santé publique (PRSP) : (1) analyse globale de 16 évaluations ; (2) lien processus/utilisation dans une région ; (3) résultats à court/moyen terme dans 9 régions ; (4) études de cas approfondies et analyse multicritères dans 5 régions. Résultats : Une première analyse a éclairé les enjeux du contexte et la contribution des PRSP à la cohérence des politiques régionales de santé. L’examen du processus d’évaluation dans une région a montré la relation entre finalités, démarche et utilisations de l’évaluation. L’observation des suites de l’évaluation dans neuf régions a identifié différentes formes d’utilisation et les principaux facteurs intervenant. La dynamique de changement a été appréhendée dans la globalité des interactions entre le contexte, les acteurs et l’évaluation dans cinq régions. Discussion : Les retombées de l’évaluation sont plus à chercher du côté des savoirs accumulés et des évolutions des pratiques que dans des décisions formelles transformant de façon radicale les politiques. Le contexte, la crédibilité de l’évaluation, l’engagement et la motivation des acteurs sont des facteurs déterminants. Des pistes de recherche sont envisagées en vue d’approfondir les conditions du développement des capacités et de la culture d’évaluation, elles-mêmes indispensables à une meilleure exploitation de l’évaluationContext: Despite the willingness showed in texts and procedures, evaluation in France is little integrated in the decision making process. However, in the health sector which faces multiple challenges, evaluation should be a useful approach to select choices. The use of evaluation depends on multiple factors such as, knowledge and its production process, characteristics of decision makers and others users, and the political and institutional context of the evaluation Objective: The objectives were: to assess the use of evaluation on health policies; to identify levers associated with use; to assess the capacity of evaluation to fit with decision-makers needs and to enhance usability. Method: Literature review allowed to enrich the understanding of the concept of use and to identify the main influent factors as well as the related issues. Regarding evaluation as a complex system, a model based on a systemic approach was built and tested in evaluations of regional public health plans (PRSP) in 4 steps: (1) global analysis of 16 evaluations; (2) relation process/use in on region; (3) use at short/medium term in 9 regions; (4) case studies and multicriteria analysis in 5 regions. Results: A first analysis enlighted the context and the contribution of the PRSP to the coherence of regional policies. A deeper process analysis carried out in one region pointed out the relation between final aims, management and evaluation use. The examination of evaluation consequences conducted in nine regions identified different forms of use and the major factors associated with them. The dynamic of change has been apprehended as a whole through the interactions between context, users and evaluation in five regions. Discussion: The effects of evaluation are more obvious in terms of knowledge building and evolution of practice than in radical change of policies. Context, evaluation credibility, actors’ commitment and motivation are key factors. Future research should help to better understand how to foster the culture and the capacities of evaluation. These are important prerequisites to a wider use of evaluation
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Viacava, Keitiline Ramos. "A prática da "post-normal science" na busca pela sustentabilidade na gestão das florestas brasileiras de acácia negra." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/10038.
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A deterioração das florestas nativas, apesar de já ter motivado preocupações relacionadas à sustentabilidade e incentivado a aplicação de práticas de Gerenciamento Sustentável na Produção de Madeira - GSPM (Sustained Yield Timber Management – SYTM), está ocorrendo a substituição desse conceito pelo conceito de Gerenciamento Florestal Sustentável - GFS (Sustainable Forest Management – SFM). O GFS se diferencia do GSPM, pois extrapola a concepção de produção. Ele é orientado para a gestão das florestas numa perspectiva global, incluindo a preocupação com as gerações futuras e integrando os aspectos sociais e ecológicos, numa ótica de “reflorestamento sustentável”. Como decorrência desses movimentos, as agroindústrias florestais vêm sendo pressionadas a tomar decisões baseadas em princípios de sustentabilidade e, em face do conceito de cadeias produtivas, impulsionam todos os demais elos da cadeia à certificação, orientada pelos mesmos princípios. No Brasil, atualmente, acontece um processo que espelha este momento no Sistema Agroindustrial de Acácia Negra, situado unicamente no Rio Grande do Sul. Porém, isso ocorre num contexto complexo, implicando em decisões ambíguas e arriscadas no âmbito dos ecossistemas florestais que, quando orientadas à sustentabilidade, devem contemplar outros valores e racionalidades, evoluindo da lógica econômica tradicional para a lógica da Economia Ecológica. Assim, parte-se da seguinte questão: existe uma pluralidade de motivações ou unicamente o auto-interesse rege os produtores florestais na tomada de decisão acerca da certificação FSC? O objetivo é analisar a tomada de decisão de acacicultores, fornecedores do Grupo SETA S.A., diante da necessidade de adaptação das unidades de manejo à certificação. Como metodologia incorpora-se a Post-normal science, a ciência que atribui à decisão um papel de extrema relevância no tratamento dos problemas atuais — onde os fatos são incertos, os valores divergentes, os riscos altos e as decisões urgentes. Como resultado identificam-se decisões fundamentadas especialmente com base na maximização do auto-interesse, mas que incluem também o empenho por objetivos desvinculados a este.The deterioration of native forests, although having caused sustainability-related concerns and, consequently, the application of Sustained Yield Timber Management – SYTM - practices, is giving way to the replacement of such concept with that of Sustainable Forest Management – SFM. SFM differs from SYTM in that it goes beyond the concept of production. It is dedicated to forest management under a global perspective, including the concern for future generations and the integration of social and ecological aspects based on a "sustainable reforestation" viewpoint. As a result of these movements, forest agro-industries have been under pressure to make decisions based on sustainability principles and, due to the concept of production chains, led the other links in the chain towards certification guided by the same principles. In Brazil, nowadays, a process reflecting this moment happens in the Black Acacia Agro-Industrial System, located exclusively in Rio Grande do Sul. However, it takes place in a complex system that requires ambiguous, bold decisions regarding forest ecosystems which, when directed towards sustainability, must take into consideration other values and rationales, evolving from the conventional economic logic to Ecological Economics. Hence, we start with the following question: is there plurality of reasons or does self-interest alone rule over forest producers in their decision making regarding FSC certification? The purpose is to analyze decisions made by acacia planters, suppliers of the Grupo SETA S.A., in face of the need to adapt management units to certification requirements. As for methods, we incorporate the Post-normal science, a science which ascribes to decision making a highly relevant role in the handling of current problems — in which facts are uncertain, values diverge, risks are high and decisions are urgent. As a result, we have identified that decisions are made primarily based on the maximization of self-interest, but also include efforts dedicated to objectives unrelated to it.
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Benincasa, Stefano. "Evolutionary Behavioral Economics: Essays on Adaptive Rationality in Complex Environments." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trento, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11572/268752.
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Against the theoretical background of evolutionary behavioral economics, this project analyzes bounded rationality and adaptive behaviour in organizational settings characterized by complexity and persistent uncertainty. In particular, drawing upon the standard NK model, two laboratory experiments investigate individual and collective decision-making in combinatorial problems of resource allocation featuring multiple dimensions and various levels of complexity. In the first study, investment horizons of different length are employed to induce a near or distant future temporal orientation, in order to assess the effects of complexity and time horizon on performance and search behaviour, examine the presence of a temporal midpoint heuristic, and inspect the moderating effects of deadline proximity on the performance-risk relationship. This is relevant for organizational science because the passage of time is essential to articulate many strategic practices, such as assessing progress, scheduling and coordinating task-related activities, discerning the processual dynamics of how these activities emerge, develop, and terminate, or interpreting retrospected, current, and anticipated events. A greater or lesser amount of time reflects then a greater or lesser provision of resources, thereby representing a constraint that can greatly affect the ability to maintain a competitive advantage or ensure organizational survival. In the second study, the accuracy of the imitative process is varied to induce a flawless or flawed information diffusion system and, congruently, an efficient or inefficient communication network, in order to assess the effects of complexity and parallel problem-solving on autonomous search behaviour, clarify the core drivers of imitative behaviour, control for the degree of strategic diversity under different communication networks, and evaluate individual as well as collective performance conditional to the interaction between the levels of complexity and the modalities of parallel problem-solving. This is relevant for organizational science because imitating the practices of high-performing actors is one of the key strategies employed by organizations to solve complex problems and improve their performance, thereby representing a major part of the competitive process. The project is intended to contribute grounding individual and collective behaviour in a more psychologically and socially informed decision-making, with a view to further the research agenda of behavioral strategy and sustain the paradigm shift towards an evolutionary-complexity approach to real economic structures.
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Figueiredo, Viviane Marchioni. "O processo decisório estratégico de adaptação de competências organizacionais." Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, 2010. http://tede.mackenzie.br/jspui/handle/tede/762.
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Competitive advantage may be reached in response to environment movements through constant adjustments and adaptations of the organizations in competitive environments, demanding an update capability that raises the flexibility necessary to the organization. In these conditions it is possible to note that organizations adopt certain tactics of alternatives choice, which relate to the need to adapt those skills that keep them competitive, showing complexity of decision making in organizations. Then, appears the question of how complexity of strategic decision making for adaptation of organizational competencies is related to alternatives choice tactics in the Brazilian pharmaceutical industry, segment of human health. To answer this question, we chose to study the decision-making process of adaptation of organizational skills in the Brazilian pharmaceutical industry. The methodology of multiple case studies is used in this study, composed by three international pharmaceutical companies operating in Brazil with drug research and development. The relevance of the research is linked to the understanding and improved knowledge of the complexity of strategic decision making, specially the phase of evaluating alternatives. Also with raising standards of tactics of choice in the segment and build knowledge that can guide the conduct of decisions with less risk and less time.
Em ambientes competitivos a garantia de vantagem competitiva pode estar na resposta a movimentos do ambiente através de adaptações e ajustes constantes das organizações, demandando uma capacidade de atualização que eleva a flexibilidade necessária à organização. Nessas condições é possível notar que as organizações adotam determinadas táticas de escolhas de alternativas, que, por sua vez, relacionam-se a essa necessidade de adaptação de competências que as mantêm competitivas, denotando complexidade aos processos decisórios nas organizações. Coloca-se então a questão de como a complexidade do processo decisório estratégico de adaptação de competências organizacionais influencia as táticas de escolha de alternativas na indústria farmacêutica brasileira, segmento de saúde humana. Para responder a essa questão, optou-se por estudar o processo decisório de adaptação de competências organizacionais na indústria farmacêutica brasileira. Para a realização deste estudo foi utilizada a metodologia de estudos de caso múltiplos, composto por três laboratórios farmacêuticos internacionais atuantes no Brasil e que desenvolvem pesquisa e desenvolvimento de medicamentos. A relevância da pesquisa vincula-se à compreensão e ao aprofundamento do conhecimento sobre a complexidade do processo decisório estratégico, em especial da fase de avaliação de alternativas. Também com o levantamento de padrões de táticas de escolha no segmento e construir conhecimentos que possam direcionar a condução de decisões, com menos riscos e em menor tempo.
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Jaber, Hadi. "Modeling and analysis of propagation risks in complex projects : application to the development of new vehicles." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016SACLC022/document.
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La gestion de projets complexes nécessite d’orchestrer la coopération de centaines de personnes provenant de diverses entreprises, professions et compétences, de travailler sur des milliers d'activités, livrables, objectifs, actions, décisions et risques. En outre, ces nombreux éléments du projet sont de plus en plus interconnectés, et aucune décision ou action n’est indépendante. Cette complexité croissante est l'un des plus grands défis de la gestion de projet et l'une des causes de l'échec du projet en termes de dépassements de coûts et des retards. Par exemple, dans l'industrie automobile, l'augmentation de l'orientation du marché et de la complexité croissante des véhicules a changé la structure de gestion des projets de développement de nouveaux véhicules à partir d'une structure hiérarchique à une structure en réseau, y compris le constructeur, mais aussi de nombreux fournisseurs. Les dépendances entre les éléments du projet augmentent les risques, car les problèmes dans un élément peuvent se propager à d'autres éléments qui en dépendent directement ou indirectement. La complexité génère un certain nombre de phénomènes, positifs ou négatifs, isolés ou en chaînes, locaux ou globaux, qui vont plus ou moins interférer avec la convergence du projet vers ses objectifs.L'objectif de la thèse est donc de réduire les risques associés à la complexité des projets véhicules en augmentant la compréhension de cette complexité et de la coordination des acteurs du projet. Pour ce faire, une première question de recherche est de prioriser les actions pour atténuer les risques liés à la complexité. Puis, une seconde question de recherche est de proposer un moyen d'organiser et de coordonner les acteurs afin de faire face efficacement avec les phénomènes liés à la complexité identifiés précédemment.La première question sera abordée par la modélisation de complexité du projet en analysant les phénomènes liés à la complexité dans le projet, à deux niveaux. Tout d'abord, une modélisation descriptive de haut niveau basée facteur est proposé. Elle permet de mesurer et de prioriser les zones de projet où la complexité peut avoir le plus d'impact. Deuxièmement, une modélisation de bas niveau basée sur les graphes est proposée. Elle permet de modéliser plus finement les éléments du projet et leurs interdépendances. Des contributions ont été faites sur le processus complet de modélisation, y compris l'automatisation de certaines étapes de collecte de données, afin d'augmenter les performances et la diminution de l'effort et le risque d'erreur. Ces deux modèles peuvent être utilisés en conséquence; une première mesure de haut niveau peut permettre de se concentrer sur certains aspects du projet, où la modélisation de bas niveau sera appliquée, avec un gain global d'efficacité et d'impact. Basé sur ces modèles, certaines contributions sont faites pour anticiper le comportement potentiel du projet. Des analyses topologiques et de propagation sont proposées pour détecter et hiérarchiser les éléments essentiels et les interdépendances critiques, tout en élargissant le sens du mot polysémique "critique".La deuxième question de recherche sera traitée en introduisant une méthodologie de « Clustering » pour proposer des groupes d'acteurs dans les projets de développement de nouveaux produits, en particulier pour les acteurs impliqués dans de nombreuses interdépendances liées aux livrables à différentes phases du cycle de vie du projet. Cela permet d'accroître la coordination entre les acteurs interdépendants qui ne sont pas toujours formellement reliés par la structure hiérarchique de l'organisation du projet. Cela permet à l'organisation du projet d’être effectivement plus proche de la structure en « réseau » qu’elle devrait avoir. L'application industrielle aux projets de développement de nouveaux véhicules a montré des résultats prometteurs pour les contributions aux deux questions de rechercheThe management of complex projects requires orchestrating the cooperation of hundreds of individuals from various companies, professions and backgrounds, working on thousands of activities, deliverables, and risks. As well, these numerous project elements are more and more interconnected, and no decision or action is independent. This growing complexity is one of the greatest challenges of project management and one of the causes for project failure in terms of cost overruns and time delays. For instance, in the automotive industry, increasing market orientation and growing complexity of automotive product has changed the management structure of the vehicle development projects from a hierarchical to a networked structure, including the manufacturer but also numerous suppliers. Dependencies between project elements increase risks, since problems in one element may propagate to other directly or indirectly dependent elements. Complexity generates a number of phenomena, positive or negative, isolated or in chains, local or global, that will more or less interfere with the convergence of the project towards its goals. The thesis aim is thus to reduce the risks associated with the complexity of the vehicle development projects by increasing the understanding of this complexity and the coordination of project actors. To do so, a first research question is to prioritize actions to mitigate complexity-related risks. Then, a second research question is to propose a way to organize and coordinate actors in order to cope efficiently with the previously identified complexity-related phenomena.The first question will be addressed by modeling project complexity and by analyzing complexity-related phenomena within the project, at two levels. First, a high-level factor-based descriptive modeling is proposed. It permits to measure and prioritize project areas where complexity may have the most impact. Second, a low-level graph-based modeling is proposed, based on the finer modeling of project elements and interdependencies. Contributions have been made on the complete modeling process, including the automation of some data-gathering steps, in order to increase performance and decrease effort and error risk. These two models can be used consequently; a first high-level measure can permit to focus on some areas of the project, where the low-level modeling will be applied, with a gain of global efficiency and impact. Based on these models, some contributions are made to anticipate potential behavior of the project. Topological and propagation analyses are proposed to detect and prioritize critical elements and critical interdependencies, while enlarging the sense of the polysemous word “critical."The second research question will be addressed by introducing a clustering methodology to propose groups of actors in new product development projects, especially for the actors involved in many deliverable-related interdependencies in different phases of the project life cycle. This permits to increase coordination between interdependent actors who are not always formally connected via the hierarchical structure of the project organization. This allows the project organization to be actually closer to what a networked structure should be. The automotive-based industrial application has shown promising results for the contributions to both research questions. Finally, the proposed methodology is discussed in terms of genericity and seems to be applicable to a wide set of complex projects for decision support
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Bourbia, Salma. "Algorithmes de prise de décision pour la "cognitive radio" et optimisation du "mapping" de reconfigurabilité de l'architecture de l'implémentation numérique." Phd thesis, Supélec, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00931350.
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Dans cette thèse nous nous intéressons au développement d'une méthode de prise de décision pour un équipement de réception de Radio Intelligente qui s'adapte dynamiquement à son environnement. L'approche que nous adoptons est basée sur la modélisation statistique de l'environnement radio. En caractérisant statistiquement les observations fournies par les capteurs de l'environnement, nous mettons en place des règles de décisions statistiques qui prennent en considération les erreurs d'observation des métriques radio, ce qui contribue à minimiser les taux des décisions erronées. Nous visons aussi à travers cette thèse à utiliser les capacités intelligentes de prise de décision pour contribuer à la réduction de la complexité de calcul au niveau de l'équipement de réception. En effet, nous identifions des scénarios de prise de décision de reconfiguration qui limitent la présence de certains composants ou fonctions de la chaîne de réception. En particulier, nous traitons, deux scénarios de décision qui adaptent respectivement la présence des fonctions d'égalisation et du beamforming en réception. La limitation de ces deux opérations contribue à la réduction de la complexité de calcul au niveau de la chaîne de réception sans dégrader ses performances. Enfin, nous intégrons notre méthode de décision par modélisation statistique ainsi que les deux scénarios de décision traités dans une architecture de gestion d'une radio intelligente, afin de mettre en valeur le contrôle de l'intelligence et de la reconfiguration dans un équipement radio.
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Pedrozo, Eugenio Avila. "Cadre conceptuel pour le management des coopératives agricoles : l'économie des conventions, la systématique et la complexité." Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy, INPL, 1995. https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/tel-01751661.
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Nous nous proposons d'analyser le fonctionnement des coopératives agricoles définies comme le rassemblement d'un groupe d'individus afin de résoudre de façon solidaire leurs problèmes économiques. La coopérative est caractérisée par la dominance de phénomènes liés à communalité des décisions (de caractère cognitifs) et de la perception des flux d'information dans un cadre dynamique. L’objectif de cette recherche est d'obtenir une représentation, la plus fidèle possible, de la coopérative dans ses grandeurs essentielles. Jusqu’à présent les représentations, fondées sur une approche unique, ont du mal à capturer, de façon simultanée, les multiples dimensions de ce phénomène. C’est pourquoi, l'ensemble des activités de la coopérative est analysé simultanément à l'aide de trois approches que l'on cherche à intégrer: l'économie des conventions, la systémique, l'approche par la complexité. Les points de focalisation de cette recherche incluent: la coordination, la téléologie, l'information, la dynamique, l'auto-organisation, l'autonomie, la décision, l'ordre et le désordre, l'interaction, la modélisation, etc. Nous avons comme approches sous-jacentes: le constructivisme, la rationalité limitée, la rationalité procédurale, l'interdisciplinarité
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Barkouli, Al. "Organizational Leaders’ Experience with Fear-Related Emotions: A Critical Incident Study." Antioch University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=antioch1432137751.
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Marx, Åberg Angela. "Lesefreude und Lernerorientierung : Eine Untersuchung von Lehrerentscheidungen beim Lesen eines Romans in einer Schülergruppe im schwedischen Unterricht Deutsch als Fremdsprache." Doctoral thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för språk och litteratur, SOL, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-5474.
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In this study, teaching is seen as a complex decision-making situation, where different factors that influence the teaching and learning process are interwoven and connected with each other. To describe and analyse the complexity of teaching literature in a foreign language instruction setting is the aim of the study. The study was conducted with one teacher participant and her group of 16–17 years old pupils in a Swedish upper secondary school, while they read a German youth novel. Data on the teacher decisions in the planning phase was collected by interviewing the teacher before the actual teaching of the novel and between lessons, while the implementation of the teacher decisions was observed during the lessons. In the interviews, four decision areas showed to be central to the teacher: teaching goals, choice of text, task formulation, and the role of freedom and control as central concepts of learner autonomy. In the analysis chapters, the decisions within these different areas are described, commented on, and contextualized within the teacher’s own teaching concepts, and within current research and theory on foreign language reading, learning, and teaching. Factors critical to the decision-making situation are identified. The findings of the study show that teaching literature employs a decision-making process of great complexity because of the subjective character of the reading process. The complexity of the process is increased by the fact that a foreign language was being taught. Even for an experienced teacher (as the teacher who was observed in the study is) teaching decisions are characterized by a complexity which her many years of teaching experience can only partly compensate for. The main goal for the teaching of the novel was formulated by the teacher as ‘reading pleasure’, a concept grounded on a previous teaching experience. Since the teacher saw tasks as an obstacle for a reading experience, the task formulation constituted a conflict for her. In the study, the structure of the conflict is described by investigating different understandings of the concepts ‘reading pleasure’ and ‘task’. A crucial question was raised: What was considered to be the most important activity of the lesson: the reading or the tasks? When the task is secondary to the reading, there is an opportunity for the learner to focus on the reading experience; an important condition for reading pleasure. When the task is considered to be the primary activity, the student’s focus is on solving the task, and the reading activity thus looses its importance when the task is fulfilled. The interpretation of teaching concepts like ‘task’ is therefore a crucial factor that influences the teacher’s decisions about the teaching. A second concept that is central to the teacher’s teaching activities is ‘learner autonomy’. Since it is a central concept in the Swedish school curriculum, learner autonomy is held in very high esteem, whilst teacher control is consequently held in very low esteem. The idealization of learner autonomy, along with insufficient explanation of its impact on the distribution of the responsibility for the learning process between teachers and pupils are seen as factors that lead to an increased complexity in the decision-making process about how to manage situations where pupils are not prepared to take on the responsibility that is given to them.
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Macintyre, Stuart Dunlop, and n/a. "Burglar decision Making." Griffith University. School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 2001. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20050916.165104.
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This thesis examines how burglars select a target and carry out a crime. The four research questions addressed by the two studies conducted for this thesis are: 1. What are the processes used by burglars to select a target, break in, steal, and distribute the proceeds? 2. What are the crucial decision making cues used to select a target? 3. What is the impact of various cues, cue alternatives, cue order and combinations selected on target attractiveness in a controlled situation? 4. Does age or experience interact with the effect of any cues? The results furnish discussion and increase the understanding and prevention of break and enter (B&E). The research for this thesis was conducted in two studies. For Study One interviews were conducted with fifty persons who attend a methadone clinic. Participants were past heroin users who financed their drug use through the commission of break and enter. Semi-structured interviews were conducted that covered their drug use and criminal involvement. From these interviews a list of seventeen cues was developed - cue 1 (dog), cue 2 (lighting), cue 3 (alarm), cue 4 (occupancy - lights/tv/radio), cue 5 (occupancy - car in driveway), cue 6 (affluence), cue 7 (doors/windows), cue 8 (locks), cue 9 (garage), cue 10 (fence), cue 11 (garden), cue 12 (location), cue 13 (people in the street), cue 14 (neighbourhood watch), cue 15 (weather), cue 16 (inside information) and cue 17 (street type). Participants used these seventeen cues to determine the vulnerability of a target. For Study Two a computer program was developed, in which these seventeen cues were arranged in various combinations, across twenty case studies. The computer program allowed subjects to access as much information about a case study as they needed to make a decision about its attractiveness as a burglary target. A new sample of ninety-six burglars were asked to view the twenty case studies and give each target a rating from '0' (not a B&E opportunity) to '100' (a definite B&E opportunity). Over the twenty case studies, the subjects only accessed one third of the available information to make a decision. The lower the final rating for a ease study the fewer cues were selected. Subjects were quickly deterred if the first one or two selections revealed deterrent alternatives. In contrast, if the initial selections revealed attractive alternatives the subjects were hard to deter even if subsequent cue selections revealed only deterrent alternatives. Four cues - cue 1 (dog), cue 3 (alann), cue 13 (people in the street) and cue 16 (inside information) - accounted for 91.77% of all first selections. Six cues - cue 1 (dog), 3 (alarm), cue 4 (occupancy - lights/tv/radio), cue 5 (occupancy - car in driveway), cue 13 (people in the street) and cue 16 (inside information) - accounted for 67.8% of all selections made. Clearly these six cues are very important to offenders and they should be closely examined in any prevention initiative. Results revealed that on 282 Occasions subjects viewed only one cue then made their decision based on this one piece of information. The most common single cue was reliable inside information that there was a large amount of cash inside the house or when a good alarm was present. Decision trees were developed which graphically trace the selections of subjects and the ratings given after each selection. The trees showed that subjects reached different conclusions from the same case study because they could select different cues. The selection of different cues from the same case study led to great variation in subsequent cue selections. The decision trees confirmed the earlier finding that subjects are much harder to deter when the first one or two selections had attractive alternatives even if subsequent selections had deterrent alternatives. Results of linear regressions revealed that every cue was significant as predictor of final rating at least twice, however three cues - cue 3 (alarm), cue 12 (location) and cue 16 (inside information) - were significant as predictors ten or more times. The 96 subjects were divided into four groups on the basis of age (young and old) and experience (experienced and inexperienced). The young and inexperienced group used an average of 188.3 cues across the twenty case studies, whereas the older and experienced group used an average of 43.8 cues. Older and experienced subjects were harder to deter, compared to younger and inexperienced subjects. As experience increased fewer cues were needed to reach a decision. The results showed that the variation in final rating for each case study was explained by a few cues. For example, in case study 16 the Adjusted R Square with all seventeen factors entered was .945. With only six cues as predictors the Adjusted R Square reduced slightly to .939. This shows that although cues are mentioned in the literature and were selected by subjects in this study they were often ineffectual and did not assist in explaining the final rating. The two most effective prevention measures were the deterrent alternatives for cue 3 (alarm) and cue 4 (occupancy -lights/tv/radio). The two most influential attractive alternatives were for cue 12 (location; house is located on a corner block) and cue 16 (inside information; from a reliable source you are told there could be a large amount of cash kept in the house). Overall, the linear models with interactions showed that the inexperienced subjects' decision making was more volatile and fluctuated to a greater extent than the experienced subjects' decision making. When continually attractive infonnation was received the inexperienced subjects' ratings climbed higher than did the experienced subjects. When deterrent information was received the negative effect on the inexperienced subjects' ratings was greater than the effect on experienced subjects. Experience increases burglars' skills and abilities but it also improves their capacity to weigh up information in a more reasoned manner. The results revealed that experienced subjects have probably developed a level of skill to the extent that the deterrent alternatives for many cues have become ineffectual. The experienced subjects have developed strategies to overcome many deterrents. The decision making of the experienced subjects was clearly more sophisticated and considered. The main theoretical finding of this thesis is that research will only produce incomplete findings if it concentrates on place and situation to the neglect of the offender and the antecedents and attributes they bring to a crime. The influence of age and experience on decision making is of such consequence that it must be considered to maximise the prevention of crime. Age and experience have individual and combined influences on cue selection and interpretation.