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1
Yerushalmi, Erez. "Essays in applied public economics using computable general equilibrium models." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2012. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/57035/.
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This thesis analyses two issues in public economics: (1) water allocation in Israel; and (2) malaria prevention in Ghana. In both cases a computable general equilibrium modelling approach has been applied for policy analysis. Part I: In Israel, parliamentary investigative committees and water researchers have concluded that for decades, the administrative water allocation mechanism has mismanaged water allocation. Over subsidising of the agricultural sector, and underfunding of desalination plants, had led to a severe hydrological deficit. Critics argue that a water market allocation could solve these issues. However, the administrative allocation is crucial because it protects social value, which is not represented in a market mechanism. Part I of the thesis compares these two alternative allocation mechanisms using a general equilibrium model, for the case of Israel. The model concludes that from 1995 to 2006, the upper-bound water misallocation in Israel was relatively small, on the average of 5.5% of the potable water supply. The lower-bound value of agricultural amenities is imputed at approximately 2.3 times agricultural economic output. At the margin, introducing a water market in Israel is not recommended, i.e., net-social welfare would fall. Part II: Research that links between malaria and economic growth have, so far, used econometric approaches. These provide results that are too broad, and not particularly useful for policy analysis. We, therefore, develop a multi-region multihousehold dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model, which is calibrated to Ghana as a case study. Households are disaggregated by five epidemiological malaria regions, urban-rural divide, and income level quintiles. The model links with malaria through regional demographic effects, and labour effectiveness indices. Hypothetical interventions simulate reducing malaria prevalence by 50%, for children under-five years with varying degrees of coverage. We find that even under this limited intervention, malaria prevention clearly adds to economic growth and reduces income inequality. Our approach is particularly useful for policy makers to compare alternative intervention strategies using cost-benefit methods, which are not commonly used in health policy.
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Punt, Cecilia. "Modelling multi-product industries in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/79959.
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Thesis (PhD (Agric))--Stellenbosch University, 2013.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is common practice in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models that the output composition of multi-product industries remains constant despite changes in relative prices of products. The results of any scenario will show that products produced by a single industry will still be produced in the same ratio to each other as reflected by the base data. The objective of the study was to develop a CGE model for South Africa in which this assumption of fixed composition of output can be selectively relaxed. In order to allow industries to adjust their output composition in response to changes in relative prices of products a Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) function and the related first order condition were incorporated into an existing CGE model. This alternative specification of an output transformation function in the model enables the modeller to allow selected multi-product industries to increase production of products that show greater price increases relative to other products. The first order condition of the CET function determines the optimal combination of products for each industry. With the inclusion of the CET function there is a trade-off between theoretical rigour of the model and realism of the results, therefore an assumption of input-output separability was introduced as a way of recognising that the inclusion of a CET function violates the assumption that prices in the same row of a social accounting matrix (SAM) are equivalent.
The model was calibrated with a SAM for South Africa for 2007 that was developed for purposes of this study. Set controls were included in the model to generalise the model in order that it can be calibrated with data from other countries as well. The SAM for South Africa contains provincial level information in the accounts for agriculture, labour and households. The agricultural industries are defined by geographical area, hence these industries are particularly good examples of multi-product industries that respond to relative price changes when determining production levels of individual products.
The adjusted CGE model was used to analyse four scenarios focusing on selected issues mentioned in the National Development Plan for South Africa released by the National Planning Commission in 2011. The scenarios relate to increases in fruit exports as a result of global positioning, technical efficiency improvements for the agricultural sector through continued research and development, factor productivity growth in government and selected services sectors resulting from fighting corruption and curbing strikes, and augmenting the supply of skilled labour through an improvement in the quality of education. The results of the adjusted model show the desired effect: producers produce relatively more of the products for which they can get a relatively higher price and vice versa. This holds true regardless of whether the level of industry output increases or decreases.
The impact of the model adjustment and the effects of changes in the levels of elasticities and choice of variables to close the model were analysed as part of the sensitivity analyses. The impact of changes in the functional form, elasticities and model closures on results, are different for each scenario.<br>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is erkende praktyk in berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodelle dat die verhoudings waarin produkte tot mekaar geproduseer word deur multi-produk industrieë konstant gehou word, ongeag veranderings in relatiewe pryse van produkte. Die resultate van enige senario sal dus aandui dat die produkte wat deur 'n enkele industrie geproduseer word steeds in dieselfde verhouding tot mekaar geproduseer sal word, soos weerspieël in die basis data. Die doel van die studie was om 'n berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel vir Suid-Afrika te ontwikkel wat die aanname dat die samestelling van elke industrie se uitset onveranderbaar is, selektief kan verslap. Om toe te laat dat industrieë die samestelling van uitset kan aanpas namate die relatiewe pryse van produkte verander, is 'n Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie en die gepaardgaande eerste orde voorwaarde in 'n bestaande berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel ingesluit. Die eerste orde voorwaarde bepaal die optimale verhoudings waarin produkte geproduseer moet word. Met die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word teoretiese korrektheid van die model ingeboet in ruil vir meer realistiese resultate, dus is die aanname van inset-uitset onafhanklikheid gemaak en daardeur word ook erken dat as gevolg van die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word daar nie meer voldoen aan die aanname data alle pryse in dieselfde ry van die sosiale rekeninge matriks (SRM) aan mekaar gelyk is nie.
Die model is gekalibreer met 'n SRM vir Suid-Afrika vir 2007 wat vir doeleindes van die studie ontwikkel is. Deur die insluiting van kontroles vir versamelings is die model veralgemeen sodat die model ook met data van ander lande gekalibreer kan word. Die SRM vir Suid-Afrika se rekeninge vir landbou, arbeid en huishoudings bevat inligting op provinsiale vlak. Die landbou industrieë is volgens geografiese gebiede afgebaken en is dus besonder goeie voorbeelde van multi-produk industrieë wat reageer op relatiewe prys veranderings wanneer die produksievlakke van afsonderlike produkte bepaal word.
Die aangepaste algemene ewewigsmodel is gebruik om vier senarios te ondersoek wat fokus op geselekteerde onderwerpe vervat in die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan wat deur die Nasionale Beplanningskommissie van Suid Afrika in 2011 vrygestel is. Die senarios hou verband met 'n styging in vrugte uitvoere as gevolg van globale posisionering, tegniese produktiwiteitsverhogings vir die landbousektor deur volgehoue navorsing en ontwikkeling, verhoging in die produktiwiteit van produksiefaktore van die regering en geselekteerde dienste sektore deur die aanspreek van korrupsie en vermindering in stakings, en die toename in geskoolde arbeid deur 'n verbetering in die kwaliteit van onderwys. Resultate van die aangepaste model toon die gewenste uitwerking: produsente produseer relatief meer van die produkte waarvoor hulle 'n relatiewe hoër prys kan kry, en omgekeerd. Dit geld ongeag of daar 'n verhoging of 'n verlaging in die vlak van die industrie se uitset is.
Die impak van die modelaanpassing, die effek van veranderings in die vlakke van elastisiteite en die keuse van veranderlikes om die model te sluit, is geanaliseer as deel van die sensitiwiteitsanalises. Die impak van veranderings in die funksionele vorm, elastisiteite en modelsluiting op resultate, is verskillend vir elke senario.
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Rumler, Fabio. "Computable general equilibrium modeling. Numerical simulations in a 2-country monetary general equilibrium model." Inst. für Volkswirtschaftstheorie und -politik, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 1999. http://epub.wu.ac.at/70/1/document.pdf.
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This paper presents the concept of numerical CGE modeling with the help of a 2-country general equilibrium model. In the framework of this simple dynamic monetary model the effects of a (unilateral) monetary and fiscal expansion are simulated. The exchange rate of the home vis-à-vis the foreign currency depreciates in response to both types of shocks. The monetary expansion leads to an increase in home relative to foreign private consumption and to a sharp increase in relative home output in the short run, while in the long run output increases in the foreign country and decreases in the home country. The unilateral fiscal expansion, on the other hand, results in a fall of private consumption in the home relative to the foreign country, and in an increase in relative home output in the short as well as in the long run. The world real interest rate falls quite substantially in response to both shocks. (author's abstract)<br>Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Naqvi, Farzana. "GE-PAK : a computable general equilibrium model of energy-economy interaction in Pakistan." Phd thesis, Department of Economics, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/3964.
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Zhu, Jie. "A spatial computable general equilibrium model for London and surrounding regions." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.610888.
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Lee, Huey-Lin 1974. "Modelling private vehicle use in a computable general equilibrium model of Taiwan." Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies, 2002. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/7895.
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Sue, Wing Ian 1970. "Induced technical change in computable general equilibrium models for climate-change policy analysis." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/16783.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, 2001.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 329-352).<br>This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.<br>Policies to avert the threat of dangerous climate change focus on stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by drastically reducing anthropogenic emissions of carbon. Such reductions require limiting the use of fossil fuels-which supply the bulk of energy to economic activity, and for which substitutes are lacking-which is feared will cause large energy price increases and reductions in economic welfare. However, a key determinant of the cost of emissions limits is technological change-especially innovation induced by the price changes that stem from carbon abatement itself, about which little is understood.This thesis investigates the inducement of technological change by limits on carbon emissions, and the effects of such change on the macroeconomic cost of undertaking further reductions. The analysis is conducted using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy-a numerical simulation that determines aggregate welfare based on the interaction of prices with the demands for and supplies of commodities and factors across different markets. Within the model induced technical change (ITC) is represented by the effect of emissions limits on the accumulation of the economy's stock of knowledge, and by the reallocation of the intangible services generated by the stock, which are a priced input to sectoral production functions.<br>(cont.) The results elucidate four key features of ITC: (1) the inducement process, i.e., the mechanism by which relative prices determine the level and the composition of aggregate R&D; (2) the effects of changes in R&D on knowledge accumulation in the long-run, and of contemporaneous substitution of knowledge services within and among industries; (3) the loci of sectoral changes in intangible investment and knowledge inputs induced by emissions limits; and (4) the ultimate impact of the accumulation and substitution of knowledge on economic welfare.<br>by Ian Sue Wing.<br>Ph.D.
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Breuss, Fritz, and Jean Tesche. "A general equilibrium analysis of East-West migration. The case of Austria-Hungary." Forschungsinstitut für Europafragen, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 1996. http://epub.wu.ac.at/870/1/document.pdf.
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We use a three-country, 14-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the effect of immigration on the labor market, production sectors and the macroeconomy of Austria and Hungary. We analyze the phenomenon of immigration in an empirical model in order to get an idea of the quantitative dimension of the economic problems involved, rather than introduce new integration theory. Our study aims more at the impact of migration than at forecasting future migration flows. (excerpt)<br>Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut
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Gounder, Neelesh. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Fiji: A Computable General Equilibrium - Microsimulation Analysis." Thesis, Griffith University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367969.
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The aim of this thesis is to examine whether trade liberalization, in terms of complete tariff reductions, will contribute to poverty reduction in Fiji. Whilst poverty reduction is the ultimate goal of trade reforms, and if trade liberalization does promote growth, then will the poor benefit from this trade liberalization? Previous studies on trade liberalization on Fiji are based on partial equilibrium as well as general equilibrium analysis. These studies have shown that trade liberalization will have positive impacts on the Fijian economy. Trade liberalization is unlikely to produce equivalent results of its impact on poverty across households and regions. Thus even within a country or geographic regions, households and individuals are likely to be differently impacted. However, none of the existing studies focus on the impact of trade liberalization on poverty at the household level. This, according to my knowledge, is thus the first study using a computable general equilibrium combined with a microsimulation approach for analysing the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in Fiji. This research will therefore further our understanding of the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in a small island developing country. It will also fill the gap in the literature on Fiji which lacks the impact of macroeconomic policies such as the impact of trade liberalization on poverty.<br>Thesis (PhD Doctorate)<br>Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)<br>Griffith Business School<br>Griffith Business School<br>Full Text
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Cameron, Marthinus Johannes. "Policy analysis in South Africa with regional applied general equilibrium models / M.J. Cameron." Thesis, North-West University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/2024.
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Gomes, Josà Weligton FÃlix. "General equilibrium model for computable policy analysis fiscal agent heterogeneous restricted and non restricted credit." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2012. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=9873.
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CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior<br>This research aims to develop a computable general equilibrium model with heterogeneous
agents restricted (p-type) and not restricted to credit (q-type) for policy analysis. We
used data from the National Accounts (IBGE), PNAD (2009), IPEADATA, to calibrate
the model according to the Brazilian economy in 2009. According to the model 11:31% of
agents (p-type) generate 0:65% of the total income and are responsible for paying 0:66% of
the total tax burden. While other agents (q-type) generate 99:35% of income accounting
for 99:34% of the payment of the tax burden. In terms of importance of sources of income,
while for p-type income transfers correspond to 55% of labor income for agents of q-type
these account for only 16%, which leads to dierent choices of work and leisure between
these two types of agents.<br>O presente trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo de equilbrio geral comput
avel com agentes heterog^eneos restritos (tipo p) e n~ao restritos ao credito (tipo q) para
ns de analise de poltica. Utilizou-se dados das Contas Nacionais (IBGE), PNAD (2009),
IPEADATA, para calibrar o modelo segundo a economia brasileira no ano de 2009. De
acordo com o modelo, 11; 31% dos agentes (tipo p) geram 0; 65% do total da renda e s~ao
responsaveis por pagar 0; 66% da carga total tributaria. Enquanto que os demais agentes
(tipo q) geram 99; 35% da renda sendo responsaveis por 99; 34% do pagamento da carga
tributaria. Em termos de import^ancia das fontes de rendimentos, enquanto para o tipo p
rendas de transfer^encias correspondem a 55% da renda do trabalho, para agentes do tipo
q estas correspondem a apenas 16%, o que provoca escolhas distintas de trabalho e lazer
entre esses dois tipos de agentes.
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Deng, Ziliang. "The productivity spillovers of foreign direct investment in China : a computable general equilibrium model." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2009. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/29397/.
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One of the most important aspects of foreign direct investment (FDI) is that it embodies advanced technologies and business practices which can spill over to domestic firms via various channels, e.g. labour mobility, input-output linkages, export of multinational affiliates, demonstration and competition. This research combines computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling and econometric techniques to quantify FDI productivity spillovers. The research is conducted in the context of the Chinese economy. A static lOl-sector CGE model is constructed to measure the endogenous productivity spillovers of FDI. Spillover effects are analysed under three different market structure assumptions, namely perfect competition, monopolistic competition with homogeneous firms, and monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms. The research results show that the presence of FDI productivity spillovers can generally improve the productivity and output level of domestic enterprises in China. Spillovers make foreign firms' total output decrease. But collectively, spillovers exert positive impact on national aggregate variables, i.e. GDP, total output and welfare. The market structure assumptions of monopolistic competition and firm heterogeneity provide more perspectives (e.g. product variety and scale) for this research than the assumption of perfect competition does. A removal of preferential corporate income tax treatment on foreign enterprises can increase the output level of domestic enterprises and promote national welfare. From a dynamic perspective, it could also promote the productivity splllovers from foreign firms.
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Easterly, William Russell. "A computable general equilibrium model of Mexico with portfolio balances : with application to devaluation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/15128.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 1985.<br>MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY<br>Includes bibliographies.<br>by William Russell Easterly.<br>Ph.D.
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TRAN, Thanh Tu. "A Study on Low Carbon Development with a Computable General Equilibrium Model : Application to Vietnam." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/161002.
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Naranpanawa, Athula Kithsiri Bandara, and n/a. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model: The Sri Lankan Case." Griffith University. Griffith Business School, 2005. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20070130.165943.
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Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.
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Naranpanawa, Athula. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model: The Sri Lankan Case." Thesis, Griffith University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366815.
Full textAbstract:
Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.<br>Thesis (PhD Doctorate)<br>Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)<br>Griffith Business School<br>Griffith Business School<br>Full Text
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Pratt, Stephen A. "The economic impact of uncertain tourism demand in Hawaii : risk in a computable general equilibrium model." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2009. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/10753/.
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This thesis estimates the economic impact of uncertain tourism demand in Hawaii. It does this by incorporating risk into a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. CGE models have been used to investigate a wide range of policy issues. To date, none have investigated how uncertainty regarding future tourism demand impacts on an economy. The context in which this research is set is the US State of Hawaii. The economy of Hawaii is heavily dependent on tourism as a source of income and a generator of employment. Shocks originating outside of Hawaii have resulted in sharp decreases in visitor arrivals to Hawaii. Yet, these events and the risks associated with future possible shocks to an economy is something that needs to be factored in when planning for the future hence the need to understand what type of impacts uncertain tourism demand will have on the economy. This thesis develops a new method for incorporating uncertainty within an applied economic model. The method involves incorporating uncertainty through different states of the world or paths that the economy may take. The risk then is that one or more of the paths may experience an external shock, which in the example used is a downturn in tourism demand. This thesis then adds to the body of knowledge methodologically. The multi-sector forward-looking CGE model with risk shows the impact of uncertainty on the economy. The results show that, where there is an asymmetric shock, the possibility of a future tourism demand shock creates a welfare loss. The welfare gains along the non-shocked path are a result of household’s risk aversion and their substituting resources away from the shocked path. The difference in the monetary values of the welfare on the different paths can be interpreted as the ‘price’ of the risk. It is the price households would pay to remove the possibility of the tourism shock. Therefore, this research was able to quantify the monetary value of the risk. Several government policy decisions, such as the imposition of a tourism tax, are simulated to mitigate the impact of the uncertainty.
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Gelana, Ayele. "Impacts of devaluation on urban rural interactions : a computable general equilibrium model for the Ethiopian economy." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.248664.
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Slocum, Susan L. "The impact of tourism on the economy of Nevada a tourism satellite account and computable general equilibrium model /." abstract and full text PDF (free order & download UNR users only), 2006. http://0-gateway.proquest.com.innopac.library.unr.edu/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:1433417.
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Palaparambil, Dinesh Lakshmi. "Essays on Mathematical Optimization for Residential Demand Response in the Energy Sector." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1511860511116905.
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Bokhari, Abla Abdul. "The economic impacts of religious tourism in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia : evaluating using the Computable General Equilibrium model." Thesis, University of Bradford, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.507955.
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Luckmann, Jonas Jens [Verfasser], and Harald [Akademischer Betreuer] Grethe. "An integrated computable general equilibrium model including multiple types and uses of water / Jonas Jens Luckmann. Betreuer: Harald Grethe." Hohenheim : Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1101573422/34.
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Lucia, Caterina De. "Integrating local and EU environmental policies, trade and transboundary pollution in an enlarged Europe : a computable general equilibrium model." Thesis, University of York, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.444666.
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Fernando, G. W. J. Sriyantha. "Tourism in Sri Lanka and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Effects of Post-War Tourism Boom." Thesis, Griffith University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366944.
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The main objective of this study is two-fold. First, it aims to undertake a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the performance of the Sri Lankan tourism sector using historical data and policy documents and to present a historical narrative on tourism. Second, it aims to analyse the effects of the post-war tourism boom on the Sri Lankan economy within an economy-wide framework by developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, labelled as SLCGE-Tourism. In the process of achieving the above objectives the study addressed two knowledge gaps related to Sri Lankan tourism as identified in the literature.
The first knowledge gap is that there is a lack of systematic historical analysis of Sri Lankan tourism both in terms of policy and data. This study contributes significantly in addressing this knowledge gap by undertaking a number of complementary analyses. Firstly, it undertakes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of post-independence tourism promotion strategies in the economic development process. It shows that Sri Lanka had many post-independence advantages, especially given its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and on the major air and sea routes between Europe and the Far East. However, it missed opportunities due to inward-oriented development policies implemented by successive governments until 1977 and the three decade long civil war and other political violence ending in 2009.<br>Thesis (PhD Doctorate)<br>Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)<br>Griffith Business School<br>Griffith Business School<br>Full Text
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Westin, Lars. "Vintage models of spatial structural change." Doctoral thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för nationalekonomi, 1990. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-73665.
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In the study a class of multisector network models, suitable for simulation of the interaction between production, demand, trade, and infrastructure, is presented. A characteristic feature of the class is a vintage model of the production system. Hence, the rigidities in existing capacities and the temporary monopolies obtainable from investments in new capacity at favourable locations are emphasized.As special cases, the class contains models in the modelling traditions of "interregional computable general equilibriunT, Hspatial price equilibrium**, "interregional input-output" and transportation networks.On the demand side, a multihousehold spatial linear expenditure system is introduced. This allows for an endogenous representation of income effects of skill-differentiated labour.The models are represented by a set of complementarity problems. This facilitates a comparison of model properties and the choice of an appropriate solution algorithm.The study is mainly devoted to single period models. Such equilibrium models are interpreted as adiabatic approximations of processes in continuous time. A separation by the time scale of the processes and an application of the slaving principle should thus govern the choice of endogenous variables in the equilibrium formulation.<br>digitalisering@umu
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Tchouamou, Njoya Eric [Verfasser], and K. [Akademischer Betreuer] Mitusch. "Aviation, Tourism and Poverty Relief in Kenya: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis / Eric Tchouamou Njoya. Betreuer: K. Mitusch." Karlsruhe : KIT-Bibliothek, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1097380904/34.
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Kerwat, Jamal S. "Constructing a Social Accounting Matrix for Libya and Using it to Conduct Policy Experiments with a Computable General Equilibrium Model." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.521665.
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Butt, Muhammad Shoaib. "Impact of Tariff Cuts on Pakistan: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis with Particular Focus on Main Exports and Regional Disparities." Thesis, Griffith University, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/365384.
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The history of Pakistan has been characterised by frequent military interventions in the democratic governing process, diverse economic and trade policies pursued by different autocratic and democratic governments, and regional conflicts and disparities which led to the civil war of 1971 and the secession of the country’s majority wing—East Pakistan. More recently, in common with other South Asian economies, Pakistan has embarked on an extensive trade liberalisation program since the late 1980s, with across-the-board tariff reductions being one of its key ingredients. This study critically reviews the political economy of Pakistan and examines the likely impacts, in both the short run and long run, of the comprehensive tariff cuts on the economy as a whole, its key industries, and its main regions. In doing so, it utilises a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the economy. The study highlights the effects of the tariff cuts on the country’s major exports, and on the output and employment levels of various regions of Pakistan.
The review of Pakistan’s economy reveals a possible, positive relationship between trade liberalisation and regional disparities under military regimes. By contrast, under truly democratic governments, trade liberalisation has tended to be associated with reduced disparities. CGE model simulations suggest that across-the-board tariff reductions increase real GDP slightly in the short run but significantly in the long run. At the microeconomic level, a striking implication of the tariff cuts is a persistent slowdown, or even a decline, in cotton and textile related exports in the long run. Increases in regional disparities are also likely. In the short run, the gap between the rates of output growth of the largest and most developed region, Punjab, and two smaller and less developed regions—North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan—will probably rise sharply. In the long run, a sustained increase in unemployment in another smaller region, Sindh, is predicted. The study recommends a number of appropriate policy responses to these likely developments, at the national as well as regional levels of government.<br>Thesis (PhD Doctorate)<br>Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)<br>Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics<br>Griffith Business School<br>Full Text
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Choi, Ki-Whan. "Economic Effects of Land Value Taxation in an Urban Area with Large Lot Zoning: an Urban Computable General Equilibrium Approach." unrestricted, 2006. http://etd.gsu.edu/theses/available/etd-07182006-170042/.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Georgia State University, 2006.<br>Title from title screen. David L. Sjoquist, committee chair; Geoffrey K. Turnbull, Sally Wallace, Michael J. Rushton, committee members. Electronic text (195 p : charts) : digital, PDF file. Description based on contents viewed on June 7, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 181-194).
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Mosa, Abdulaziz Abdulsemed [Verfasser], and Harald [Akademischer Betreuer] Grethe. "Non-agricultural activities and household time use in Ethiopia : a computable general equilibrium model analysis / Abdulaziz Abdulsemed Mosa ; Betreuer: Harald Grethe." Hohenheim : Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1197125604/34.
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Gomo, Charity [Verfasser]. "Government social assistance transfers, income inequality and poverty in South Africa: a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) - Microsimulation (MS) Model / Charity Gomo." Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1077768036/34.
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Pham, Tien Duc, and n/a. "A new approach to regional modelling: an Integrated Regional Equation System (IRES)." Griffith University. School of International Business and Asian Studies, 2004. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20041022.083520.
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This thesis develops a new structure that explicitly combines two CGE models, a national and a regional, in an integrated structure that gives the thesis model the name IRES, in short for the Integrated Regional Equation System. The typical features of the integrated structure are the adding-up conditions and the two-way linkages between the national and the regional modules facilitated by the interface shifters. The adding-up conditions ensure the two modules produce consistent results and updated databases. The inclusion of the interface shifters on the one hand plays a role in ensuring compatibility of results of the two modules, i.e. no distortion occurs because technical or taste changes are transferred across modules. On the other hand, the interface shifters assist the operation of IRES in different modes: the model can be used as a top-down model, a bottom-up model or an integrated model where national and regional shocks can be introduced at the same time. Hence, IRES has more flexibility in its application than a regional model or a national model alone, as IRES can make use of availability of data at any levels in the economy. IRES has a new labour market in which regional migration is no longer the only factor that settles the labour market as in the original setting of the MMRF model. Regional unemployment and regional participation rates are modelled to response to changes in regional employment growth using elasticities estimated econometrically in this thesis. IRES implements historical patterns of regional migration so that results of regional migration are consistent with observed patterns. Altogether, regional migration, regional unemployment and participation rates determine the equilibrium of the labour market. IRES adopts new approaches to modelling margin demands and indirect taxes. These new approaches are very effective in reducing the size of IRES but they do not compromise the use of the model. These approaches are readily applicable to any other regional CGE models.
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Pham, Tien Duc. "A new approach to regional modelling: an Integrated Regional Equation System (IRES)." Thesis, Griffith University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366367.
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This thesis develops a new structure that explicitly combines two CGE models, a national and a regional, in an integrated structure that gives the thesis model the name IRES, in short for the Integrated Regional Equation System. The typical features of the integrated structure are the adding-up conditions and the two-way linkages between the national and the regional modules facilitated by the interface shifters. The adding-up conditions ensure the two modules produce consistent results and updated databases. The inclusion of the interface shifters on the one hand plays a role in ensuring compatibility of results of the two modules, i.e. no distortion occurs because technical or taste changes are transferred across modules. On the other hand, the interface shifters assist the operation of IRES in different modes: the model can be used as a top-down model, a bottom-up model or an integrated model where national and regional shocks can be introduced at the same time. Hence, IRES has more flexibility in its application than a regional model or a national model alone, as IRES can make use of availability of data at any levels in the economy. IRES has a new labour market in which regional migration is no longer the only factor that settles the labour market as in the original setting of the MMRF model. Regional unemployment and regional participation rates are modelled to response to changes in regional employment growth using elasticities estimated econometrically in this thesis. IRES implements historical patterns of regional migration so that results of regional migration are consistent with observed patterns. Altogether, regional migration, regional unemployment and participation rates determine the equilibrium of the labour market. IRES adopts new approaches to modelling margin demands and indirect taxes. These new approaches are very effective in reducing the size of IRES but they do not compromise the use of the model. These approaches are readily applicable to any other regional CGE models.<br>Thesis (PhD Doctorate)<br>Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)<br>School of International Business and Asian Studies<br>Full Text
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Olwert, Craig Thomas. "A Computable General Equilibrium Model of the City with Optimization of its Transportation Network: Impacts of Changes in Technology, Preferences, and Policy." The Ohio State University, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1269369926.
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Bueno, Eduardo Urbanski. "A entrada da Venezuela no Mercosul : uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável sobre os impactos setoriais no Brasil." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/79106.
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O presente trabalho tem o objetivo de avaliar o impacto que a adesão da Venezuela ao Mercosul terá sobre o bloco em termos de criação/desvio de comércio e de bem-estar. Mais especificamente, pretende-se quantificar os impactos estáticos dos choques tarifários que este processo pode gerar sobre setores da economia brasileira. Busca-se testar a hipótese de que o resultado líquido (em termos de criação de comércio e de bem-estar) dessa ampliação do bloco será positivo. Para atingir tal objetivo, o trabalho utilizará o modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP, V.8). A hipótese é confirmada, havendo resultados particularmente positivos para as indústrias automobilística, de bens de capital e têxtil brasileiras.<br>This study aims to evaluate the impact that the accession of Venezuela to Mercosur will have on the block in terms of trade creation/diversion and of welfare. More specifically, it intends to quantify the static impacts of tariff shocks that this process can generate on sectors of the Brazilian economy. The article seeks to test the hypothesis that the net result (in terms of trade creation and welfare) of this regional agreement will be positive. To achieve this goal, the work uses the Computable General Equilibrium Model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP, V.8). The hypothesis is confirmed, with particularly positive results for the Brazilian automobile, capital goods and textile industries.<br>Este estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar el impacto que la adhesión de Venezuela al Mercosur tendrá en el bloque en términos de creación/desviación de comercio y de bienestar. Más concretamente, se pretende cuantificar los impactos estáticos de los shocks arancelarios que este proceso puede generar sobre los sectores de la economía brasileña. Tratamos de probar la hipótesis de que el resultado neto (en términos de creación de comercio y bienestar) de este acuerdo regional será positivo. Para lograr este objetivo, el trabajo utiliza el modelo de Equilibrio General Computable del Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP, V.8). La hipótesis se confirma, con resultados especialmente positivos para las industrias automotriz, de bienes de capital e textil brasileñas.
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Otto, Vincent M., Andreas Loeschel, and John M. Reilly. "Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy." MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32541.
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This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward-looking CGE model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find the cost-effective climate policy to include a combination of R&D subsidies and CO2 emission constraints, although R&D subsidies raise the shadow value of the CO2 constraint (i.e. CO2 price) because of a strong rebound effect from stimulating innovation. Furthermore, we find that CO2 constraints differentiated toward CO2-intensive sectors are more cost effective than constraints that generate uniform CO2 prices among sectors. Differentiated CO2 prices, through technical change and concomitant technology externalities, encourage growth in the non-CO2 intensive sectors and discourage growth in CO2-intensive sectors. Thus, it is cost effective to let the latter bear relatively more of the abatement burden. This result is robust to whether emission constraints, R&D subsidies or combinations of both are used to reduce CO2 emissions.<br>Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).
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Al-Hawwas, Abdullah. "Policy experiments for the Saudi's economy using a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) : oil demand and tariff liberalisation effects on the Saudi economy." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2010. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/5028d3bf-71ed-4788-b032-945fd8b002c9.
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This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive analysis using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for the economy of Saudi Arabia and of the possible effects of some policy measures. It further explains the mechanisms through which they affect different economic agents. Using a static CGE Model, we show the possible micro and macroeconomic effects of an exogenous shock of world oil demand and the possibility of adapting a trade liberalisation regime in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, this study comprises of two main experiments each with a number of simulations. The first experiment examines the effects of an increase in world oil demand on the Saudi economy. Due to the significant effects of closure rules on the results, this experiment implements two simulations based on an alternative closure rules, the first in which saving is flexible and investment remains fixed, the second in which investmentis flexible and saving remain fixed. The second experiment investigates the impact of tariff elimination on the Saudi economy. As a result of dropping the import tax, government revenue declines. Based on that the experiment includes three simulations:(i) Examines the effects of tariff elimination without revenue neutral policies, (ii) examines the effects of tariff elimination combined with revenue neutral policy (sales tax) and (iii) examines the effects of tariff elimination combined with income tax.Sensitivity analysis has been done to test the robustness of the model. Household welfare effects have also been measured across households using an Equivalent Variation measure (EV). The study concludes that the third simulation (iii) in the second experiment is preferred in case compensation tariff drop but the first simulation (i) in second experiment is better and use oil revenue for compensation instead.
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Godoy, Priscila Henriques. "A hipótese da desindustrialização e os impactos de políticas de estímulo à indústria brasileira: uma análise de equilíbrio geral." Universidade de São Paulo, 2013. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-04092013-102649/.
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O debate sobre a desindustrialização brasileira é bastante denso e ainda inconclusivo, embora haja algum consenso entre as diferentes vertentes econômicas de que o setor manufatureiro tem passado por dificuldades, principalmente após a crise financeira de 2008. Tendo este cenário em vista, o governo atuou na tentativa de restaurar a atividade industrial com algumas medidas de estímulo ao setor e através de políticas macroeconômicas (câmbio e juros). Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho investiga os impactos econômicos dessas políticas - redução da taxa de juros, desoneração da folha de pagamentos, redução do IPI, restrição ao fluxo de capitais estrangeiros (elevação do IOF) e redução da tarifa de energia elétrica - sobre a produção, o bem-estar, o consumo, entre outras variáveis macroeconômicas e setoriais. Além disso, busca-se analisar outras duas medidas alternativas - subsídio ao setor de transportes e reforma tributária, comparando seus resultados com aqueles obtidos pela avaliação das medidas já adotadas pelo governo. Para tanto, utiliza-se um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (EGC) calibrado para o ano de 2009, com o intuito de estudar cenários de adoção dessas políticas e contribuir para a literatura econômica de forma mais objetiva. Os resultados obtidos pela modelagem indicam que é possível afirmar que muitas das medidas implementadas mostram-se adequadas para o contexto da economia brasileira no pós-crise, seja pelos benefícios setoriais associados a um maior nível tecnológico da produção quanto pelos resultados macroeconômicos de reanimar a atividade econômica. As medidas de redução na taxa de juros (Selic e TJLP) e reforma tributária neutra que considera a substituição dos impostos intermediários pelo VAT são capazes de elevar o PIB e o bem-estar e ainda melhorar a composição setorial da produção e exportação, sem que a atividade do governo seja negativamente afetada. Outras medidas, como a desoneração da folha de pagamentos, reforma tributária com redução da receita fiscal, e a redução no IPI também trazem bons resultados, mas não se sustentam no longo prazo se não houver mudança na eficiência dos gastos públicos, uma vez que todas geram queda na atividade do governo. No sentido contrário, as medidas de subsídio ao setor de transporte, de redução da tarifa de energia elétrica e redução do fluxo de capitais externos, que implicam na atuação do governo sobre o livre funcionamento do mercado, geraram resultados indesejados no que diz respeito a um menor estímulo a indústrias de maior conteúdo tecnológico, além de não reverterem a perda de participação da indústria no emprego e no PIB.<br>Brazilian deindustrialization debate is quite dense and still inconclusive, although there is some consensus on the manufacturing struggle among different economic approaches, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. Considering this scenario, the government has been acting in an attempt to restore industrial activity by granting stimuli focused on the manufacturing sector and curbing currency appreciation. In this context, this study aims to investigate the economic impacts of these policies on GDP, welfare, consumption and macroeconomic and sectorial variables. Furthermore, alternative policies were considered, in order to compare the results with those obtained through the evaluation of effective government policies. Therefore, we apply a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, updated for 2009, in order to study the effects of adopting these polices and contribute to the economic literature concerning this subject. The results indicate that it is possible to affirm that most measures are appropriate to help Brazilian economy after the crisis, both by sector benefits associated with a higher technological level of production and by improving macroeconomic outcomes. Measures to reduce interest rate (Selic and TJLP) and neutral tax reform that considers the replacement of intermediaries tax by VAT are able to raise GDP and welfare and to further improve the sectoral composition of production and export, without adversely affecting government activity. Other measures, such as payroll exemptions, tax reform with reduction of the fiscal income, and IPI reduction also bring good results, but would hardly be maintained in long term if there is no change in public spending efficiency, since all have negative impacts on government activity. On the contrary, subsidies to the transport sector, cuts in electricity rates and restriction to foreign capital inflow, which reflect government action on free market functioning, led to undesirable results in the context of raising technological level of the Brazilian production and reverse industry participation loss in employment and GDP.
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Palermo, Patrícia Ullmann. "Efeitos econômicos e fiscais de uma reforma tributária no Brasil : análise com um modelo inter-regional de equilíbrio geral computável para o Rio Grande do Sul." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/18841.
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Alterações na legislação tributária sempre motivaram profundas discussões políticas e acadêmicas. Isso ocorre pois mudanças dessa natureza promovem a realocação dos fatores de produção, alterando a produção de setores e regiões, e, consequentemente, da receita arrecadada pelos governos. Essa última, por sua vez, é alterada por duas motivações: as variações das alíquotas e as da própria base tributária. O sistema tributário brasileiro, ao longo do tempo, passou por constantes reformulações buscando torná-lo mais moderno e adequado às condições econômicas e políticas vigentes. Entretanto, atualmente, diferentemente do que ocorreu no passado, não é mais possível prover reformas tributárias lastreadas no aumento da carga, uma vez que essa já assume patamares incompatíveis com o grau de desenvolvimento do País. Nesse cenário, apresenta-se a PEC nº 233/08, a mais recente proposta de reforma tributária que, buscando manter inalterada a carga tributária no patamar atual, propõe, entre outras mudanças, modificações relevantes na legislação do ICMS. Esse projeto de emenda constitucional propõe a harmonização da legislação do ICMS e a preservação do sistema misto de apropriação do imposto entre origem e destino, aumentando significativamente, porém, a apropriação pelo destino. Dada a necessidade de uma abordagem empírica para as discussões, essa tese, com o objetivo de estimar os impactos decorrentes dessa proposta de reforma, utilizou um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável inter-regional denominado BMARIA- RS-TAX (ano-base 2004), que investigou as relações econômicas entre o Rio Grande do Sul e o Restante do Brasil. Para tanto, dois experimentos são implementados. O primeiro trata especificamente de uma reestruturação tributária para o Rio Grande do Sul em que um desconto de ICMS relativo a 1% da arrecadação total em um produto é financiado via aumento da alíquota efetiva dos demais. O experimento mostrou que mudanças na matriz tributária gaúcha não se mostram nem economicamente nem fiscalmente neutras, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo. Esse tipo de simulação é fundamental para determinar o posicionamento do Estado no caso das rodadas de discussão no Confaz quanto à alocação dos produtos nas faixas de alíquotas pré-definidas pelo Senado, pois evidencia os efeitos de aumentar a alíquota em um determinado setor e reduzir em outro. O segundo experimento aplica a proposta da PEC nº 233/08, assumindo que a harmonização se dará através da assimilação da alíquota efetiva média vigente no País em ambas as regiões analisadas. Os resultados mostraram que a harmonização leva a um aumento relevante da alíquota efetiva média no Rio Grande do Sul, com impactos negativos sobre o PIB e o emprego, porém com aumento significativo da arrecadação (com resultados opostos no Restante do Brasil). No entanto, esse resultado em termos de receita do Estado tem seu efeito diminuído em virtude da mudança do regramento do regime de apropriação do ICMS. Ainda assim, mesmo que potencialmente menor, o resultado revela, no caso do Rio Grande do Sul, um incremento na arrecadação em comparação com a arrecadação corrente. No entanto, é provável que isso não se materialize integralmente em ganhos de caixa para o Estado, dado que a reforma prevê mecanismos de compensação entre “ganhadores” e “perdedores” com a reforma. A temporalidade e os próprios mecanismos da reforma não atentam para questões econômicas, mas apenas fiscais. Os resultados da análise de equilíbrio geral computável mostram que, para o Rio Grande de Sul, a reforma pode gerar efeitos perversos sobre a atividade econômica e sobre as finanças públicas se os mecanismos de compensação de receita exaurirem o potencial ganho fiscal identificado para o Rio Grande do Sul. Neste caso, o Rio Grande do Sul perderia duplamente no processo de reforma.<br>Changes in the tributary legislation have always brought deep discussions into politics and the academic field. This happens because changes in this matter promote the reallocation of production factors, altering the production of sectors and regions and, thus, the production of revenues collected by the governments. The latter, therefore, altered by two reasons: the variations of the tax rate and the ones of the tributary bases themselves. The Brazilian tributary system, along the years, has gone through constant reformulations trying to become more modern and adequate to the current economic and political conditions. However, nowadays, different from what had occurred in the past, it is not possible to provide reforms based on tax load, since it has already reached incompatible standards compared with the country’s development level. In this scenario, it is presented the PEC 233/08, the most recent proposal of tributary reform that tries to keep unchanged the current tax load level; it proposes, among other changes, relevant modifications in the ICMS (Value Added Tax – VAT) legislation. This project of constitutional amendment proposes a harmonic legislation of ICMS and the preservation of mixed system of appropriation of taxes between the origin and the destination, increasing significantly, however, the appropriation of the destination. As it is needed an empiric approach for discussions, this thesis, which had the objective to estimate the impact derived from this proposal of reform, used a interregional computable general equilibrium (ICGE) model named BMARIA-RS-TAX, (database 2004), that investigated the economic relations between Rio Grande do Sul and the rest of Brazil. In order to carry out this research two experiments are implemented. The first deals specifically with tributary restructuring for Rio Grande do Sul, in which 1% discount in the ICMS total revenue of one product is financed by the effective increase on other products tax rates. The experiment showed that the changes in the tributary model of Rio Grande do Sul were neither economically nor fiscally neutral in short and long term period. This kind of simulation is essential to determine the positioning of the state in the rounds of discussions at Confaz as for allocating the products in the range of pre-determined tax rates by the Senate, because it shows evidences of increasing taxes in one specific sector and deceasing in another. The second experiment applied the proposal of PEC 233/08, assuming that the harmonization will be done through the assimilation of the current effective tax rate average in the country in both analyzed regions. The results showed the harmonization leads to a significant increase in the effective tax rate average in Rio Grande do Sul, which had negative impact in the GDP and employment rate; although, there were significant increases in the tax revenue collected in Rio Grande do Sul (the opposite results were also found for the rest of the country). However, in terms of revenue for the state, this result has its effects diminished due to the changing of rules of ICMS approval regime. Nevertheless, even being potentially smaller, the results show the increase in the revenues collection in comparison to the current revenue income. However, it is likely that this will not be materialized thoroughly in gains for the cash flow of the state, since the legislation provides mechanisms of compensation for ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ with the reform. The temporality and the reform’s own mechanisms do not draw attention to economic matters, but to fiscal ones. The result of the a interregional computable general equilibrium (ICGE) model analysis shows that, for Rio Grande do Sul, the reform can generate harsh results on the economic activities and on the public finances if mechanisms of income compensation blow over the potential of fiscal gains identified in Rio Grande do Sul. In this case, the state would lose twice in the process of reform.
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VIANA, Jorge Henrique Norões. "Impactos de uma Redução na Disponibilidade Hídrica Sobre a Agricultura e a Pobreza Multidimensional No Brasil." Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2016. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/17447.
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Previous issue date: 2016-03-11<br>CNPq<br>Esta tese desenvolve uma plataforma integrada para avaliar os efeitos sobre a economia de possíveis reduções na disponibilidade hídrica sobre a agricultura, sobretudo o impacto de tais reduções na pobreza. Para construir a plataforma foi necessário o uso de diversas ferramentas metodológicas. Inicialmente foi construído um índice de pobreza multidimensional (MPI) para as unidades federativas do Brasil com base nos dados da POF 2008/2009. Dentre os principais resultados obtidos com esta aplicação do MPI destaca-se o percentual de 14% dos domicílios classificados como pobres usando a referida medida no Brasil. Posteriormente foi estimado um modelo de demanda por alimentos em dois estágios, com o primeiro estágio sendo um modelo Working-Leser e o segundo um modelo LA-AIDS, com variável instrumental, ambos baseados na Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF). Então foram estimadas funções de produção translog para os setores agrícola e o de Água & Esgoto (AE). Além disso, acrescentou-se uma função de produção translog ray para o setor de AE, a qual representava a criação de novas ligações de água encanada e esgotamento sanitário, baseados nos dados do Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento (SNIS) e do Censo Agropecuário 2006. Por fim, o último bloco da plataforma foi um modelo básico de Equilíbrio Geral Computável padrão, com base nos dados das Tabelas de Recurso e Usos, usando os valores estimados dos parâmetros do sistema de demanda e das funções de produção dos setores agrícolas e AE. Foram simulados três cenários envolvendo restrições de disponibilidade de água pelos setores agrícolas de 10%, 20% e 30% de forma exógena obtendo-se assim tarifas endógenas ou disposição a pagar (DAP) pelo uso da água em cada um dos setores agrícolas. Esses recursos obtidos com as tarifas permaneceriam sob o domínio do governo nestes primeiros cenários. Além disso, foram simulados mais dois cenários com restrição hídrica de 30%, mas nestes os recursos obtidos com as tarifas foram repassados para as famílias ou como um subsídio ao setor AE. Dentre os vários resultados, destaca-se que a redução na demanda total por água bruta foi maior quanto maior foi a restrição hídrica para a agricultura simulada, chegando a 18,44% sob uma restrição hídrica de 30%. Quanto a produção, sua maior redução foi de 0,39% sob uma restrição hídrica de 30% Sobre as tarifas sobre o uso da água obtidas endogenamente, resultaram bem maiores do que aquelas praticadas atualmente em algumas regiões no Brasil. Finalmente, no que diz respeito a pobreza, a medida MPI nacional foi fracamente crescente com a restrição hídrica, mas sob todos os cenários sua variação não foi estatisticamente significante. E assim como aconteceu com os demais resultados, as medidas de pobreza não variaram em decorrência do destino dos recursos obtidos com a tarifa sobre a água. Quanto a distribuição dos impactos entre as UFs, os resultados foram bastante distintos, com algumas UFs apresentando aumentos da pobreza na ordem de 15% (Amapá e Rondônia), enquanto outras apresentaram aumentos do MPI abaixo dos 2%, como São Paulo e Distrito Federal. Já entre os diferentes estratos sociais de renda, de maneira geral, famílias mais pobres sofreram mais com os aumentos nos preços dos alimentos causados pelas restrições hídricas. Por fim, ainda que não tenham sido analisados nesta tese, a plataforma encontra-se habilitada a gerar diversos outros resultados sob cenários de restrições hídricas que não envolvam apenas o setor agrícola mas também o setor de AE. Ademais, de maneira inversa ao que se apresenta como resultados nesta tese, a plataforma pode simular de forma exógena diversas tarifas de água bruta para os dois setores (agrícola e AE) e mensurar os resultantes impactos não só nas reduções de demanda dos referidos setores, mas também nos agregados econômicos e na medida de pobreza.<br>This thesis develops an integrated platform to assess the effects on the economy of possible reductions in water availability on agriculture, especially the impact of such reductions on poverty. To build the platform various methodological tools were required. Initially a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) to the federal units of Brazil based on data from POF 2008/2009 was built. Among the main results of this application of the MPI we can highlight that 14% of Brazilian households were classified as poor using this measure. Later a demand model for food in two stages, with the first stage being a Working-Leser model and the second a LA-AIDS model with instrumental variable, both based on the POF, was estimated. Also translog production functions for the agricultural sector and the Water & Sewer sector (AE) were estimated. In addition, we estimated a translog ray production function to the AE sector, which represented the creation of new connections of piped water and sanitation, based on data from the National Sanitation Information System (SNIS) and the Agricultural Census 2006. Finally, the last building block of the was a standard Computable General Equilibrium model, based on the data of the Tabela de Recursos e Usos, but incporporating the estimated demand system parameters and production functions of agricultural and AE sectors. We simulated three scenarios involving exogenously restrictions of water availability for agricultural sectors of 10%, 20% and 30% thus yielding endogenous tariffs or willingness to pay (WTP) for water use in each of the agricultural sectors. While the revenues of these rates would remain under government domain in these three standard scenarios. In addition, two other scenarios were simulated with water restriction of 30%, but with the revenues from these tariffs passed on directly to the families or used to finance a subsidy to the AE sector. Among the various results, it is emphasized that the reduction in the total demand for raw water (blue water) was greater than the reduction in agriculture production, with the primer reaching 18,44% under a water restriction of 30%. As for total production, the greater reduction was 0.39% under a water restriction of 30%. About the tariffs on water use obtained endogenously, they were much higher than those currently practiced in some regions in Brazil. Finally, with regard to poverty, national MPI was weakly increasing with water restriction, but under all scenarios its variation was not statistically significant. And as happened with the other results, the poverty measures did not change due to the destination of the revenues from the tariff on water. As the distribution of impacts among the Federative Units, the results were quite different, with some Federative Units presenting poverty increases above 15% (Amapá e Rondônia), while others showed poverty measures increases below 2%, like São Paulo e Distrito federal. Among the different social strata of income, in general, poorer households suffered most with increases in food prices caused by water restrictions. Finally, even if they have not been analyzed in this thesis, the platform is enabled to generate different results under other scenarios of water restrictions that not only involve the agricultural sector but also the AE sector. In addition, conversely to what is presented in this thesis, the platform can simulate various exogenously raw water tariffs for the two sectors (agricultural and AE) and measure the resulting impact not only on the demand of those sectors, but also in the economic aggregates and poverty measures.
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Look, Wesley Allen. "The economics of US greenhouse gas emissions reduction policy : assessing distributional effects across households and the 50 United States using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79205.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2013.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 60-62).<br>The political economy of US climate policy has revolved around state- and district- level distributional economics, and to a lesser extent household-level distribution questions. Many politicians and analysts have suggested that state- and district-level climate policy costs (and their distribution) are a function of local carbon intensity and commensurate electricity price sensitivity. However, other studies have suggested that what is most important in determining costs is the means by which revenues from a price on carbon are allocated. This is one of the first studies to analyze these questions simultaneously across all 50 United States, household income classes and a timeframe that reflects most recent policy proposals (2015 - 2050). I use a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economic effects of a US "cap-and-dividend" policy, by simulating the implementation of the Carbon Limits and Energy for America's Renewal (CLEAR) Act, a bill proposed by Senators Cantwell (D-WA) and Collins (R-ME) in 2009. I find that while carbon intensity and electricity prices are indeed important in determining compliance costs in some states, they are only part of the story. My results suggest that revenue allocation mechanisms and new investment trends related to the switch to low-carbon infrastructure are more influential than incumbent carbon intensity or electricity price impacts in determining the distribution of state-level policy costs. These findings suggest that the current debate in the United States legislature over climate policy, and the constellation of both supporters and dissenters, is based upon an incomplete set of assumptions that must be revisited. Finally, please note that this study does not claim to comprehensively model the CLEAR Act,. nor does it incorporate a number of important data and assumptions, including: the latest data on natural gas resources and prices, the price effects on coal of EPA greenhouse gas and mercury regulations, the most recent trends in renewable energy pricing.<br>by Wesley Allen Look.<br>S.M.
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Morais, Maurício Delago. "O Brasil e a integração com as Américas: comércio Sul-Sul e Sul-Norte." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2016. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/5412.
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Previous issue date: 2016-02-26<br>UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos<br>O comércio entre os países do hemisfério Sul tem crescido de forma significativa nas últimas décadas e, em 2011, já representava mais da metade de suas trocas comerciais. Além do forte crescimento, ele tem se tornado cada vez mais intensivo em capital e trabalho qualificado em comparação ao comércio Sul-Norte. O objetivo da pesquisa é analisar os efeitos sobre comércio e bem-estar da formação de uma área de livre comércio entre todos os países da América do Sul (UNASUL) e entre o Brasil e o North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), caracterizando comércio Sul-Sul e Sul-Norte, respectivamente. Neste estudo são realizadas duas simulações por meio de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável. Os resultados mostraram que a UNASUL, apesar de gerar benefícios, expressos principalmente na forma de aumento de bem-estar e de exportações de bens de maior intensidade tecnológica para os países envolvidos, eles são limitados. Os ganhos mais expressivos para o Brasil ocorrem com a liberalização comercial Sul-Norte.<br>South-South trade has increased significantly in the last decades. In 2011, it accounted for more than half of total trade of the region. Besides the strong growth it is becoming more intensive in capital and skilled labor in comparison with South-North trade. The study analyses the effects on trade and welfare of the formation of a free trade area in South America (UNASUL) and between Brazil and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) using a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that despite UNASUL would generate gains for the countries that participate in this agreement, in terms of increased trade on high technology sectors and welfare, they are limited. The more significant gains for Brazil occur with the South-North trade liberalization.
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Reis, Magnus dos. "Ensaios acerca dos impactos da abertura multilateral sobre os fluxos de comércio e bem-estar dos países." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/172472.
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Utilizando o modelo gravitacional, estimado através da Pseudo Máxima Verossimilhança de Poisson com a inclusão de efeitos fixos, esta tese de doutorado fornece evidências de que a OMC teve um profundo impacto sobre o comércio internacional. Entretanto, esse impacto ocorreu de forma assimétrica entre os setores, países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros. Considerando as importações agregadas, os países em desenvolvimento foram os mais favorecidos pela atuação da OMC, porém com dados desagregados de produtos primários, têxteis e industrializados, os países desenvolvidos foram os que mais se beneficiaram do aumento do comércio mundial promovido pela OMC. Muito embora as nações desenvolvidas também tiveram seus fluxos de comércio ampliados pela OMC nos setores têxtil e industrial, o maior crescimento ocorreu no setor primário. Além disso, esses países não discriminaram os não membros da instituição. Diferentemente, a abertura comercial dos países em desenvolvimento foi discriminatória e o crescimento do comércio foi observado apenas em produtos primários e industriais, mas em menor magnitude que as nações desenvolvidas. Alternativamente, utilizando o Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável do GTAP, foram avaliados os impactos de uma hipotética conclusão da Rodada de Doha sobre os países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, membros e não membros da OMC. Os resultados sugerem que, ao incorporar a redução de barreiras não tarifárias nas reformas, além das tarifas de importação e subsídios à exportação, os ganhos, em termos de PIB e bem-estar, ampliam-se para os seus membros, sugerindo que seus efeitos são claramente dominantes em relação às tarifas de importação e aos subsídios à exportação. Considerando o cenário de maior liberalização comercial, os países desenvolvidos teriam um crescimento de bem-estar de aproximadamente US$ 572 bilhões, enquanto os em desenvolvimento aumentariam US$ 441 bilhões. O custo de não ser membro da OMC, em termos de bem-estar, pode chegar até US$ 34 bilhões.<br>Using the gravitational model, estimated through the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood of Poisson with the inclusion of fixed effects, this doctoral thesis provides evidence that the WTO had a profound impact on international trade. However, this impact occurred asymmetrically between the developed and developing countries, members and non-members. Considering aggregate imports, developing countries were the ones most benefited by the WTO, but with disaggregated data on primary, textile and industrialized products, developed countries benefited most from the increase in world trade promoted by the WTO. Although developed nations also had their trade flows expanded by the WTO in the textile and industrial sectors, the largest growth occurred in the primary sector. In addition, these countries did not discriminate against non-members of the institution. In contrast, trade liberalization in developing countries was discriminatory and trade growth was observed only in primary and industrial products, but to a lesser extent than developed nations. Also, using the GTAP General Computable Equilibrium Model, the impacts of a hypothetical conclusion of the Doha Round on the developed and developing countries, members and non-members of the WTO, were evaluated. The results suggest that, by incorporating the reduction of non-tariff barriers in the reforms, in addition to import tariffs and export subsidies, gains in terms of GDP and welfare increase for its members, suggesting that its effects Are clearly dominant in relation to import tariffs and export subsidies. Considering the scenario of increased trade liberalization, developed countries would have a welfare growth of approximately US$ 572 billion while developing countries would increase US$ 441 billion. The cost of not being a member of the WTO in terms of welfare can reach up to US$ 34 billion.
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Baillet-Gallardo, Alvaro L. "A computable general equilibrium model of the Mexican economy to study the effects of the oil boom on the balance of trade, structural change and the distribution of income under." Thesis, University of Sussex, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.255844.
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Verikios, George. "Understanding the world wool market : trade, productivity and grower incomes." University of Western Australia. School of Economics and Commerce, 2007. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2007.0064.
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[Truncated abstract] The core objective of this thesis is summarised by its title: “Understanding the World Wool Market: Trade, Productivity and Grower Incomes”. Thus, we wish to aid understanding of the economic mechanisms by which the world wool market operates. In doing so, we analyse two issues trade and productivity and their effect on, inter alia, grower incomes. To achieve the objective, we develop a novel analytical framework, or model. The model combines two long and rich modelling traditions: the partial-equilibrium commodity-specific approach and the computable-general-equilibrium approach. The result is a model that represents the world wool market in detail, tracking the production of greasy wool through five off-farm production stages ending in the production of wool garments. Capturing the multistage nature of the wool production system is a key pillar in this part of the model . . . The estimated welfare gain for China is 0.1% of real income; this is a significant welfare gain. For three losing regions Italy, Germany and Japan the results are robust and we can be highly confident that these regions are the largest losers from the complete removal of 2005 wool tariffs. In both wool tariff liberalisation scenarios, regions whose exports are skewed towards wool textiles and garments gain the most as it is these wool products that have the highest initial tariff rates. The overall finding of this work is that a sophisticated analytical framework is necessary for analysing productivity and trade issues in the world wool market. Only a model of this kind can appropriately handle the degree of complexity of interactions between members (domestic and foreign) of the multistage wool production system. Further, including the nonwool economy in the analytical framework allows us to capture the indirect effects of changes in the world wool market and also the effects on the nonwool economy itself.
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Vu, Trung Dien. "Transportation Infrastructure Investment and Economic Integration: A Case of Vietnam Economy." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/151960.
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Proença, Sara Isabel Azevedo. "Impact assessment of energy and climate policies : a hybrid botton-up general equilibrium model (HyBGem) for Portugal." Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/6126.
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Doutoramento em Economia<br>Climate change mitigation and the imperative of a new sustainable energy paradigm are among the greatest challenges facing the world today, and they are high on the priority list of policy makers as well as within the scientific community. In this context significant efforts are being made in the design and implementation of energy and carbon mitigation policies at both European and national level. Evidence of this can be seen in the recent adoption by the EU of an integrated climate and energy policy that setts ambitious binding targets to be achieved by 2020 – known as the 20-20-20 targets of the EU Climate and Energy Package. Undoubtedly, the cost of these policies can be substantially reduced if a comprehensive impact assessment is made of the most efficient and cost-effective policy measures and technological options. Policy impact assessment therefore plays an important role in supporting the energy and climate decision-making process. This is the context of and motivation for the research presented in this thesis. The first part of the thesis, the conceptual framework, describes the development of the Hybrid Bottom-up General Equilibrium Model (HyBGEM) for Portugal, as a decision-support tool to assist national policy makers in conducting energy and climate policy analysis. HyBGEM is a single integrated, multi-sector, hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium E3 model formulated as a mixed complementarity problem. The second part of the thesis, the empirical analysis, provides an impact assessment of Portugal’s 2020 energy-climate policy targets under the EU Climate and Energy Package commitments, based on the HyBGEM model and the baseline projections previously developed. Five policy scenarios have been modelled and simulated to evaluate the economic, environmental and technological impacts on Portugal of complying with its individual 2020 carbon emissions and renewable energy targets. Furthermore, insights are gained into how these targets interact with each other, what are the most efficient and cost-effective policy options, and how alternative pathways affect the extent of policy-induced effects.
The numerical analysis reveals that Portugal’s 2020 energy-climate targets can be achieved without significant compliance costs. A major challenge for policy makers is to promote an effective decarbonisation of the electricity generation sector through renewable-based technologies. There is evidence that the compliance costs of Portugal’s low carbon target in 2020 are significantly higher than the costs of achieving the national RES-E target, given that imposing carbon emissions constraints and subsidising renewable electricity generation via a feed-in tariffs scheme both have a similar impact on economy-wide emissions. This result suggests that the most cost-effective policy option to achieve the national energy-climate targets is to promote renewable power generation technologies, recommending that policy makers should proceed with the mechanisms that support it. The transition to a ‘greener’ economy is thus central to the ongoing fight against climate change. There is also evidence that emission market segmentation as imposed by the current EU-ETS creates substantial excess costs compared to uniform emissions pricing through a comprehensive cap-and-trade system. The economic argument on counterproductive overlapping regulation is not corroborated by the findings. Furthermore, there is no potential for a double dividend arising from environmental tax reforms. To conclude, the results highlight the critical importance of market distortions and revenue-recycling schemes, together with baseline projections in policy impact assessment.<br>A mitigação das alterações climáticas e o imperativo de um novo paradigma energético sustentável estão entre os maiores desafios que o mundo de hoje enfrenta, surgindo no topo da lista de prioridades quer dos decisores políticos quer da comunidade científica. Neste contexto, têm sido envidados esforços significativos na conceção e aplicação de políticas energéticas e de mitigação de carbono, tanto a nível europeu como nacional. A recente adoção de uma política integrada da UE em matéria de clima e energia, com objetivos ambiciosos a serem alcançados até 2020 – os denominados objetivos 20-20-20 do Pacote Clima-Energia da UE, é prova disso. Não há dúvida de que o custo destas políticas pode ser substancialmente reduzido se for feita uma avaliação global das medidas e das opções tecnológicas mais eficientes e com melhor relação custo-eficácia. A avaliação de impacto das políticas desempenha assim um papel importante no apoio à tomada de decisão em matéria energética e climática.
São estes o contexto e a motivação para a investigação apresentada nesta tese. A primeira parte da tese, referente à estrutura conceptual, descreve o desenvolvimento do modelo HyBGEM – Hybrid Bottom-up General Equilibrium Model, concebido para Portugal. Trata-se de uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão em matéria de políticas de energia-clima. O HyBGEM é um modelo E3 de equilíbrio geral, com uma estrutura híbrida top-down/bottom-up integrada, multi-setorial e formulado como um problema de complementaridade mista. A segunda parte da tese, referente à análise empírica, apresenta uma avaliação de impacto das políticas de energia-clima para Portugal no quadro dos compromissos assumidos no Pacote Clima-Energia da UE, com base no modelo HyBGEM e em projeções de base previamente construídas. Foram modelados e simulados cinco cenários de política para avaliar os impactos económicos, ambientais e tecnológicos do cumprimento das metas nacionais traçadas para 2020 em matéria de limitação de emissões de carbono e promoção das energias renováveis. Avalia-se também o modo como estes objetivos interagem entre si, quais são as opções de política mais eficientes e custo-eficazes, e em que medida opções alternativas influenciam a magnitude dos impactos. A análise numérica revela que as metas energia-clima 2020 para Portugal podem ser alcançadas sem incorrer em custos de cumprimento significativos. O desafio fundamental que se coloca aos decisores políticos consiste em impulsionar a descarbonização do setor de produção de energia elétrica através de tecnologias de energia renovável. Existe evidência de que os custos de cumprimento da meta de redução de carbono são significativamente mais elevados que os custos de cumprimento da meta de FER-E, sendo que a imposição de restrições às emissões e a subsidiação da produção de eletricidade a partir de fontes de energia renovável (regime de tarifas feed-in) têm um impacto semelhante sobre o total de emissões. Este resultado sugere que a promoção das tecnologias de base renovável no sistema energético nacional é a opção com melhor relação custo-eficácia para a concretização dos objetivos nacionais energia-clima para 2020, instando os decisores políticos a prosseguir com os mecanismos de apoio existentes. A transição para uma economia mais ‘verde’ afigura-se assim fundamental no combate em curso contra as alterações climáticas. A análise revela também que a segmentação do mercado de emissões imposta pelo atual CELE gera custos adicionais substanciais quando comparada com um sistema de direitos de emissão uniforme. O argumento económico de que a sobreposição de regulamentação é contraproducente não é corroborado pelos resultados. A expectativa de um duplo dividendo decorrente das reformas fiscais em matéria ambiental não foi confirmada. Os resultados destacam ainda a importância crítica das distorções de mercado, dos sistemas de reciclagem de receitas e das projeções de base, para a avaliação de impacto das políticas.
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Gomes, Alexandre de Araújo. "Impacto de melhorias em infraestrutura de transportes sobre variáveis econômicas no Brasil: uma abordagem com o modelo GTAP." Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2013. http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=9357.
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Neste Trabalho, modelamos a redução de custos de transportes decorrentes de hipotéticas melhorias na qualidade da infraestrutura de transportes terrestres da economia brasileira. A liberação de recursos gerada por essas melhorias foram traduzidas, em nosso modelo, como ganhos de produtividade para dez setores selecionados. A escolha dessa modelagem possui a vantagem de deixar que os agentes econômicos decidam o que fazer após o choque na produtividade total dos fatores, sem que estes recursos estejam comprometidos com quaisquer incentivos de natureza específica, como seria o caso de um subsídio à compra de determinada matéria-prima, por exemplo. O comportamento do setor, em consequência da realização do experimento, fica condicionado às hipóteses iniciais do modelo referentes aos parâmetros de decisão da firma, das famílias e do governo. Para os cálculos dos impactos sobre a produtividade, utilizamos as matrizes de insumoproduto estimadas por Martinez(2013). Os resultados mostraram ganhos expressivos para o produto interno bruto, a Balança Comercial e o volume de produção setorial, dentre outras variáveis analisadas.<br>This work analyses the impacts of lowering transport costs derived from quality improvements in Brazils land transportation infrastructure. The resource disposals generated by those improvements are modeled as total productivity gains in ten selected economic sectors. This modeling pattern presents the advantage of let agents decide about the best resource allocation after the shocks. Proceeding this way, we avoid create any bias in resource allocation decisions, as it would happen if the shocks was established by a subsidy for each sector. The economic behaviors by sector are subordinated to the initial assumptions made about decision parameters of firms, households and government. The main results show that gains in terms of GDP growth, trade flows, and production are significant.
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Freitas, Filho Paulo Roberto de Sousa. "Efeitos do investimento em infraestrutura e de suas formas de financiamento no Brasil: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral computável." Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 2012. http://tede.biblioteca.ufpb.br:8080/handle/tede/5017.
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Previous issue date: 2012-11-06<br>Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior<br>Although infrastructure investment has a central role in economic development, it declined considerably in Brazil during the 1980 and 1990 decades. At the beginning of the 2000s it amounted to 2.2 \% of GDP, while in China and Chile it amounted to 7.3 \% and 6.5 \% of GDP, respectively. The private investment in infrastructure was not enough to offset the decline in public investment, which occurred because of the government's effort to achieve primary surpluses. Thus, the government faces a dilemma between balancing the budget and increasing the investment. In order to achieve the two goals, the investment must be financed. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of an increase in the infrastructure investment and its financing in the Brazilian economy. To do it, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used. It is simulated an increase in the investment for two years, equal to 1 \% of the GDP. The results show that, in the first three years, the increase in the GDP growth rate is higher when the investment is financed by reducing the government consumption (0.73 \%), it is moderate when the financing is done through the tax on production (0.33 \%) or foreign savings (0.34 \%), and it is lower when the financing is done by increasing the income tax (0.28 \%). Construction was the fastest growing sector (2.39 \% on average in the first 3 years). The contribution of this work was to obtain clear and useful results for policy making, enhance the understanding of the effects of infrastructure investment financing in the Brazilian economy, and analyze the sectorial impacts of this investment.<br>Embora o investimento em infraestrutura tenha um papel central no desenvolvimento econômico, ele reduziu-se muito no Brasil nas décadas 1980 e 1990. No início da década de 2000 equivalia a 2,2%do PIB, enquanto que na China e no Chile correspondia a 7,3% e 6,5%do PIB, respectivamente. O investimento privado em infraestrutura, não foi suficiente para compensar a redução do investimento público, que ocorreu por causa do esforço do governo para obter superávits primários. Assim, o governo enfrenta um dilema entre obter o equilíbrio orçamentário ou aumentar o investimento público. Para que os dois objetivos sejam alcançados é preciso que o investimento seja financiado. O objetivo desse trabalho é avaliar o impacto do aumento do investimento em infraestrutura e de seu financiamento na economia brasileira. Para isso, utiliza-se um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável dinâmico. E simulado o aumento do investimento durante 2 anos, equivalente a 1 % do PIB. Os resultados mostram que, nos três primeiros anos, o aumento da taxa de crescimento do PIB é maior quando o investimento é financiado pela redução do consumo do governo (0,73 %), é moderada quando o financiamento é feito através do imposto sobre a produção (0,33 %) ou da poupança externa (0,34 %) e é menor quando o financiamento é feito através do aumento do imposto de renda (0,28 %). O setor que mais cresceu foi o de construção (2,39% em média nos 3 primeiros anos). A contribuição desse trabalho foi obter resultados claros e úteis para a tomada de decisões políticas, ampliar a compreensão dos efeitos do financiamento do investimento em infraestrutura na economia brasileira e analisar os impactos setoriais de tal investimento.
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Sahlén, Linda. "Essays on environmental and development economics : Public policy, resource prices and global warming." Doctoral thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-1957.
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This thesis consists of four self-contained papers, which are all related to important environmental and natural resource issues from a developing country perspective. Paper [I] concerns climate policy and addresses the potential welfare gains of introducing a technology transfer from the North (richer countries) to the South (poorer countries). The results largely depend on the environmental policy in the pre- transfer resource allocation and, in particular, whether or not the South abates its own emissions. Although the technology transfer is desirable from a “global social planners” point of view, it is shown that the incentives to use the transfer might be weak from the perspective of the North; at least if the South takes its own measures to reduce emissions. However, in a situation where the North is committed to emission reductions according to the Kyoto protocol, it is shown that there will clearly be incentives for the North to use the technology transfer in order to reach the Kyoto targets in a more cost efficient way. In paper [II], the likely effects of an environmental fiscal reform in Namibia are examined by means of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that the introduction of an environmental fiscal reform, where taxes on natural and environmental resources (fish rents, energy and water) are recycled to the economy in different ways might give rise to benefits in terms of GDP, employment and income distribution, in addition to the environmental impacts. While subsidizing unskilled labour would give the most favourable outcome in terms of real GDP and employment impacts, a decrease in food taxes might be a more interesting option if GDP, employment, income distribution and environmental impacts are considered in combination. In paper [III], the value of irrigation water used for different crop alternatives in the Hardap region in Southern Namibia is estimated. The study finds that all crop alternatives that farmers in the region currently choose among, will remain financially viable after the planned increases in user charges. However, if full cost recovery is to be achieved in the future, substantial changes in the agricultural production will most likely be necessary. The method is also extended in order to study the potential effects on total water demand if further increases in user charges are implemented. Paper [IV] studies the likely effects of exogenous international food and oil price shocks on the Namibian economy. This is particularly interesting in a country where the domestic consumption of corn and petroleum products is mainly imported, and where water scarcity represents one of the main constraints to agricultural expansion. The results show that the Namibian economy will be negatively affected from the food and oil price increases, and water scarcity will further limit the ability of the economy to adapt to international oil and food price increases.