Academic literature on the topic 'Condition of vulnerability'

A category of fundamental importance in the context of professional fishing in the Brazil, artisanal fishers live in condition of vulnerability threatened by various vulnerability processes that permeate their own social and cultural reproduction. This article aims to produce a sociodemographic analysis about these workers in order to subsidize the elaboration of public policies that aim to overcome their vulnerability condition. Therefore, firstly, this paper reflected about the Brazilian artisanal fishingfrom specialized literature on the subject, with the help of the concepts of risk, danger, vulnerability and vulnerability processes. In addition, using the software R-Studio version 1.1.463, the regional sociodemographic and household characteristics of Brazilian artisanal fishers were quantitatively analyzed using the 2018 Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNADC) microdata. This article concludes that this group has characteristics that denote their vulnerability condition, with regional differences in Brazil’s territory, which are reinforced by vulnerability processes, such as environmental degradation, industrialization, urbanization, overfishing, among others, which also have regional differences in their occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary that public policies that focus on these workers consider the complexity of factors that configure such condition, including the interregional discrepancy, improving their responsiveness to risks and dangers.

This paper examines vulnerability in the context of affluence and privilege. It focuses on the 1991 Oakland Hills Firestorm in California, USA to examine long-term lived experiences of the disaster. Vulnerability is typically understood as a condition besetting poor and marginalized communities. Frequently ignored in these discussions are the experiences of those who live in more affluent areas. This paper seeks to more closely explain vulnerability at its interface with affluence. The aim is to challenge uncritical explanations of vulnerability. We also offer alternative ways of conceptualizing vulnerability as a material condition and social construct that acknowledges broader cultural, ecological, and economic conditions, which may offset, maintain or deepen true risk exposure. Drawing on in-depth interviews with residents and emergency service managers, the paper presents a suite of vulnerability categories that intersect to create two concomitant and competing conditions. First, vulnerability is variegated between households within communities, including those in more affluent areas. Second, household vulnerability is collectively altered, and oftentimes reduced, by the broader affluent community within which individual households reside. By paying closer attention to the Affluence–Vulnerability Interface the paper reveals a recursive process, which is significant in the context of building more disaster resilient communities.

This research was conducted in June to July 2019. It aimed to analyze the vulnerability and the shoreline change of coastal area of Padang Pariaman Regency, West Sumatera Province. Survey methods with direct field observations were applied and different satellite imageries were also used to find out the shoreline change of coast under study. The results showed that there five categories of changes, namely high and low accretion (>2.1 m yr-1; 1 - 2 m yr-1); stable condition (-1 to 1 m yr-1); and high and low erosion (<-2 m yr-1; -1 to -2 m yr-1). Furthermore, the percentages of coastal vulnerability of the areas under study can be classified into five categories such as Very Low Condition (17.27 %), Low Condition (39.68 %), Medium Condition (29.02 %), High Condition (8.88 %), and Very High Condition (5,75 %). In addition, the districts of Sungai Limau and Batang Gasan had very high vulnerability conditions.

Every ecosystem has a different level of susceptibility to environmental disturbances it receives, both from natural factors or anthropogenic disturbance. National Park (NP) Baluran is one national park that has a representation of a complete ecosystem that includes upland forest ecosystems, lowland forests, coastal forests, mangroves, savanna and evergreen forest. The objective of this study is to get a formula calculation of vulnerability analysis of constant and dynamic factors. Baluran NP vulnerability assessment to climate change done by looking at the dynamic and fixed factors. Vulnerability remains a vulnerability factor to the condition of the original (control), whereas vulnerability is the vulnerability of the dynamic change factors which affected the condition from the outside. Constant Vulnerability (CV) in Baluran NP dominated resistant conditions (61%), meaning that the geomorphology and other fixed factors (slope and slope direction/aspect, then the condition in Baluran NP sufficiently resilient to climate change. Dynamic Vulnerability (DV) is the vulnerability of an area or areas that change because of pressure from external factors. DV is influenced by climatic factors (WI = Wetness Index), soil (SBI = Soil Brightness Index), and vegetation (GI = Greenness Index). DV in Baluran NP from 1999 to 2010 shifted from the original category of being (84.76%) and shifted to the susceptible (59.88%). The role of remote sensing for the analysis of raster digital system, while the geographic information system to display the results of cartographic maps.

This review examines precarity through two foci. First, I focus on related terms of the lumpenproletariat and informal economy, each of which have left their mark on the notion of precarity as a bounded historical condition, and its related notion of the precariat, a sociological category of those who find themselves subject to intermittent casual forms of labor. I explore the ways in which these terms offer pictures of politics and the state that are inherited by the term precarity, understood as the predicament of those who live at the juncture of unstable contract labor and a loss of state provisioning. I then turn to the second pole of precarity to chart a tension between asserting a common condition of ontological precarity and the impulse to describe the various ways in which vulnerability appears within forms of life.

The research on component vulnerability testing is critical. In this paper, an approach of vulnerability testing is proposed based on condition mutation and parameter mutation in order to effectively detect the explicit vulnerabilities of third-party components. To start with, the Pre-condition Mutation Algorithm (PCMA) is presented to generate mutants set of the pre-condition and test cases are generated based on these mutants. Then, the Single Parameter Mutated Values (SPMV) procedure is addressed to generate parameter values based on mutation operators of parameter specification. These values are then taken as the input of the Test Case Generation Algorithm based on the Parameter Constraint (TCGPC), which is addressed to generate test case set violating the parameter constraint. The explicit vulnerabilities can be detected by the vulnerability detecting algorithm based on the test cases of condition and parameter mutation. The experiments show that our approach can detect explicit vulnerability faults of third-party components. Furthermore, the proposed approach can detect more vulnerability faults than other related approaches such as condition coverage methods, fuzzy testing method and boundary value method.

Coral reef ecosystems provide many ecological, economic, and social benefits. Despite their numerous functions, coral reefs are in a vulnerable state due to the effects of human activities. The condition of coral reefs has decreased in many parts of the world. Therefore, coral reef examinations need to be carried out continuously in order to formulate management strategies that can reduce their vulnerability over time. This study aims to analyze the vulnerability index of coral reefs, the sensitivity of coral reefs to the causes of vulnerability, and the adaptive capacity to anticipate vulnerability. The primary data are the perceptions of respondents’ who filled out a prepared questionnaire which included eight dimensions: information on the environmental conditions, fishing ports, fishing areas, coastline settlements, tourism management, tourism attractions, socio-economic conditions and population, and aquaculture. The data were analyzed using multidimensional scaling (MDS). The results of the analysis revealed that fishing ports, fishing areas, and environmental condition are high vulnerability indexes which cause damage to coral reefs. The highest coral reef vulnerability sensitivity was found to be triggered by the distance from fishing areas and the distance from fishing vessel channels. An inverse relationship between vulnerability and adaptive capacity was shown. Hence distance from fishing areas and distance from fishing vessel channels are the attributes that have low adaptive capacity.

The recent global financial crisis has renewed the focus on the resistance of Islamic banks in order to confront the crisis. While several empirical studies show that Islamic banks have no resist from the crisis. thus, Islamic banks run their business side by side with their counterpart and play the game under the same umbrella and the rules of game. In case of Indonesia, which implement dual banking system, Islamic banks have potential to be effected by the variables of conventional banks. Which mean, this condition led the Islamic banks have the vulnerable spot in economic life. This paper aim to examine the stability of Islamic banks and to discern dynamic behavior of Islamic banks to the macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate. the measure of stability of Islamic banks formulated as z-score. Then, We use VAR/VECM analysis in order to see the dynamic behavior and the vulnerability of Islamic banks. the paper found several findings, first, during the global financial crisis, Islamic banks more stable than the conventional banks, while after the global financial crisis conventional banks tend to be more stable than Islamic banks. Second, From the IRF test display that Islamic banks react sensitively to the shock of interest rate. however, Islamic banks prohibit the practice of interest rate. even though, in practical reason, Islamic bank use interest rate as benchmarking to determine the price. This condition put the Islamic Banks in vulnerable condition. Third, the FEVD test showed that the stability of Islamic banks mostly contribute by its own stability then followed by GDP, interest rate, exchange rate and Inflation. At the seventh period the stability of Islamic banks mostly contribute by its stability then followed by Inflation rate, GDP, exchange rate and interest rate.

Conservation science in rivers is still lagging behind its terrestrial and marine counterparts, despite increasing threats to freshwater biodiversity and extinction rates being estimated as five times higher than in terrestrial ecosystems. Internationally, most protected rivers have been assigned reserve status in the framework of terrestrial conservation plans, neglecting catchment effects of disturbance. While freshwater conservation tools are mainly index based (e.g. richness, rarity), modern terrestrial and marine conservation planning methods use complementarity-based algorithms - proven to be most efficient at protecting a large number of taxa for the least cost. The few complementarity-based lotic conservation efforts all use broad river classifications instead of biota as targets, a method heavily disputed in the literature. They also ignore current condition and future vulnerability. It was the aim of this thesis to develop a framework for conservation planning that: a) accounts for the connected nature of rivers b) is complementarity based and uses biota as targets c) integrates current status and future vulnerability I developed two different approaches using macroinvertebrate datasets from Australia, Canada and the USA. The first new method was a site/based two-tiered approach integrating condition and conservation value, based on RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS � a modelling technique that predicts macroinvertebrate composition. The condition stage assesses biodiversity loss by estimating a site-specific expected assemblage and comparing it to the actual observed assemblage. Sites with significant biodiversity loss are flagged for restoration, or other management actions. All other sites progress to the conservation stage, in which an index of site-specific taxonomic rarity is calculated. This second index (O/E BIODIV) assesses the number of rare taxa (as defined by &lt50% probability of occurrence). Using this approach on a dataset near Sydney, NSW, Australia, I was able to identify three regions: 1) an area in need of restoration; 2) a region of high conservation value and 3) an area that had high conservation potential if protection and restoration measures could counteract present disturbance. However, a second trial run with three datasets from the USA and Canada highlighted problems with O/E (BIODIV). If common taxa are predicted at lower probabilities of occurrence (p&lt50%) because of model error, they enter the index and change O/E (BIODIV). Therefore, despite an attractive theoretical grounding, the application of O/E (BIODIV) will be restricted to datasets where strong environmental gradients explain a large quantity of variation in the data and permit accurate predictions of rare taxa. It also requires extensive knowledge of regional species pools to ensure that introduced organisms are not counted in the index. The second approach was a proper adaptation of terrestrial complementarity algorithms and an extension to the Irreplaceability-Vulnerability framework by Margules and Pressey (2000). For this large-scale method, distributions for 400 invertebrate taxa were modeled across 1854 subcatchments in Victoria, Australia using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs). The best heuristic algorithm to estimate conservation value was determined by calculating the minimum area needed to cover all 400 taxa. Solutions were restricted to include rules for the protection of whole catchments upstream of a subcatchment that contained the target taxon. A summed rarity algorithm proved to be most efficient, beating the second best solution by 100 000 hectares. To protect 90% of the taxa, only 2% of the study area need to be protected. This increases to 10% of the study area when full representation of the targets is required. Irreplaceability was calculated by running the heuristic algorithm 1000 times with 90% of the catchments randomly removed. Two statistics were then estimated: f (the frequency of selection across 1000 runs) and average c (contribution to conservation targets). Four groups of catchments were identified: a) catchments that have high contributions and are always selected; b) catchments that have high contributions and are not always selected; c) catchments that are always chosen but do not contribute many taxa; d) catchments that are rarely chosen and did not contribute many taxa. Summed c, the sum of contributions over 1000 runs was chosen as an indicator of irreplaceability, integrating the frequency of selection and the number of taxa protected. Irreplaceability (I) was then linked to condition (C) and vulnerability (V) to create the ICVframework for river conservation planning. Condition was estimated using a stressor gradient approach (SGA), in which GIS layers of disturbance were summarised to three principal axes using principal components analysis (PCA). The main stressor gradient � agriculture � classified 75% of the study area as disturbed, a value consistent with existing assessments of river condition. Vulnerability was defined as the likelihood that land use in a catchment would intensify in the future. Hereby current tenure was compared to land capability. If a catchment would support a land use that would have a stronger effect on the rivers than its current tenure, it was classified as vulnerable. 79% of catchments contained more than 50% vulnerable land. When integrating the three estimators in the ICV-framework, seven percent of catchments were identified as highly irreplaceable but in degraded condition. These were flagged for urgent restoration. Unprotected, but highly irreplaceable and highly vulnerable catchments that were still in good condition made up 2.5% of the total area. These catchments are prime candidates for river reserves. The ICV framework developed here is the first method for systematic conservation planning in rivers that is complementarity-based, biota-driven but flexible to other conservation targets and accounts for catchment effects, thus fulfilling all the gaps outlined in the aims.

Research studies indicate that during the XXI century the rate of damages and vulnerability of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.)　will increase. The aim of the study was to assess changes of condition and vulnerability of Norway spruce in Lithuania and evaluate the impact of the main affecting factors, including climate change. To achieve this aim the following objectives were set up: to evaluate dynamics of spruce crown condition during 1990–2013 period in the different climatic regions of Lithuania and hydrotops and assess the impact of climatic factors on defoliation; to identify factors wish have impact on frequency of biotic and abiotic damages, evaluate dynamics of damages and assess relation between damages and crown condition; to identify factors wish have impact on frequency of wood decay in spruce stands and assess the impact of wood decay on crown defoliation; to assess changes of the spruce phonological structure in different climatic regions of Lithuania. Novelty of the study. For the first time in Lithuania a systematic (integrated) research has been done one the Norway spruce condition in a changing climate. The effects of precipitation and temperature on crown condition in different climatic and site humidity gradients were identified. The key biotic and abiotic damaging factors were identified and was assessed they impact on crown defoliation. Relation of incidence of decay and crown defoliation was identified. Structure of spruce phenological forms... [to full text]<br>Moksliniai tyrimai rodo, kad XXI a. paprastosios eglės (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) pažeidžiamumo rizika išaugs. Darbo tikslas – nustatyti paprastosios eglės (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) būklės ir pažeidžiamumo tendencijas Lietuvoje, įvertinti juos lemiančius veiksnius ir galimą klimato kaitos įtaką. Uždaviniai: nustatyti eglės lajų būklės kaitos dėsningumus 1990–2013 metais skirtinguose Lietuvos klimatiniuose rajonuose ir hidrotopuose bei įvertinti klimato veiksnių ir galimą klimato kaitos įtaką lajų defoliacijai; išaiškinti eglės biotinių ir abiotinių pažeidimų gausos pokyčių tendencijas, nustatyti lemiančius veiksnius bei įvertinti pažeidimų poveikį medžių būklei; nustatyti eglės liemens puvinio paplitimą lemiančius veiksnius ir puvinių įtaką lajų būklei; nustatyti savaiminio žėlimo eglių fenologinių formų struktūros pokytį skirtinguose Lietuvos klimatiniuose rajonuose. Darbo mokslinis naujumas. Pirmą kartą Lietuvoje atlikti sistemingi klimato pokyčių poveikio eglės būklei tyrimai. Išaiškinti svarbiausi klimato veiksniai lemiantys eglių lajų būklę bei įvertintas jų reikšmingumas skirtinguose Lietuvos klimatiniuose rajonuose ir augavietėse augančioms eglėms. Išaiškinti pagrindiniai biotiniai ir abiotiniai eglę pažeidžiantys veiksniai ir įvertinta jų įtaka lajų būklei. Įvertintas eglės liemens puvinio intensyvumo poveikis lajų defoliacijai. Nustatytas savaiminio žėlimo eglių fenologinių formų pasiskirstymas brandžiuose eglynuose ir žėliniuose Lietuvos klimato rajonuose.

In general, computer software vulnerabilities are defined as special cases where an unexpected behavior of the system leads to the degradation of security properties or the violation of security policies. These vulnerabilities can be exploited by malicious users or systems impacting the security and/or operation of the attacked system. Since the literature on vulnerabilities is not always available to developers and the used tools do not allow detecting and avoiding them; the software industry continues to be affected by security breaches. Therefore, the detection of vulnerabilities in software has become a major concern and research area. Our research was done under the scope of the SHIELDS European project and focuses specifically on modeling techniques and formal detection of vulnerabilities. In this area, existing approaches are limited and do not always rely on a precise formal modeling of the vulnerabilities they target. Additionally detection tools produce a significant number of false positives/negatives. Note also that it is quite difficult for a developer to know what vulnerabilities are detected by each tool because they are not well documented. Under this context the contributions made in this thesis are: Definition of a formalism called template. Definition of a formal language, called Vulnerability Detection Condition (VDC), which can accurately model the occurrence of a vulnerability. Also a method to generate VDCs from templates has been defined. Defining a second approach for detecting vulnerabilities which combines model checking and fault injection techniques. Experiments on both approaches

Moksliniai tyrimai rodo, kad XXI a. paprastosios eglės (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) pažeidžiamumo rizika išaugs. Darbo tikslas – nustatyti paprastosios eglės (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) būklės ir pažeidžiamumo tendencijas Lietuvoje, įvertinti juos lemiančius veiksnius ir galimą klimato kaitos įtaką. Uždaviniai: nustatyti eglės lajų būklės kaitos dėsningumus 1990–2013 metais skirtinguose Lietuvos klimatiniuose rajonuose ir hidrotopuose bei įvertinti klimato veiksnių ir galimą klimato kaitos įtaką lajų defoliacijai; išaiškinti eglės biotinių ir abiotinių pažeidimų gausos pokyčių tendencijas, nustatyti lemiančius veiksnius bei įvertinti pažeidimų poveikį medžių būklei; nustatyti eglės liemens puvinio paplitimą lemiančius veiksnius ir puvinių įtaką lajų būklei; nustatyti savaiminio žėlimo eglių fenologinių formų struktūros pokytį skirtinguose Lietuvos klimatiniuose rajonuose. Darbo mokslinis naujumas. Pirmą kartą Lietuvoje atlikti sistemingi klimato pokyčių poveikio eglės būklei tyrimai. Išaiškinti svarbiausi klimato veiksniai lemiantys eglių lajų būklę bei įvertintas jų reikšmingumas skirtinguose Lietuvos klimatiniuose rajonuose ir augavietėse augančioms eglėms. Išaiškinti pagrindiniai biotiniai ir abiotiniai eglę pažeidžiantys veiksniai ir įvertinta jų įtaka lajų būklei. Įvertintas eglės liemens puvinio intensyvumo poveikis lajų defoliacijai. Nustatytas savaiminio žėlimo eglių fenologinių formų pasiskirstymas brandžiuose eglynuose ir žėliniuose Lietuvos klimato rajonuose.<br>Research studies indicate that during the XXI century the rate of damages and vulnerability of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.)　will increase. The aim of the study was to assess changes of condition and vulnerability of Norway spruce in Lithuania and evaluate the impact of the main affecting factors, including climate change. To achieve this aim the following objectives were set up: to evaluate dynamics of spruce crown condition during 1990–2013 period in the different climatic regions of Lithuania and hydrotops and assess the impact of climatic factors on defoliation; to identify factors wish have impact on frequency of biotic and abiotic damages, evaluate dynamics of damages and assess relation between damages and crown condition; to identify factors wish have impact on frequency of wood decay in spruce stands and assess the impact of wood decay on crown defoliation; to assess changes of the spruce phonological structure in different climatic regions of Lithuania. Novelty of the study. For the first time in Lithuania a systematic (integrated) research has been done one the Norway spruce condition in a changing climate. The effects of precipitation and temperature on crown condition in different climatic and site humidity gradients were identified. The key biotic and abiotic damaging factors were identified and was assessed they impact on crown defoliation. Relation of incidence of decay and crown defoliation was identified. Structure of spruce phenological forms... [to full text]

Climate change is associated with altered environmental conditions and shifting mosaics of suitable habitats for organisms. Climate change in the form of drought can shift important lake shoreline habitats downslope, altering the lakes chemistry and habitat availability. Additionally, negative biological consequences can occur after a loss of submerged habitat along shorelines, hereafter littoral habitat. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether littoral habitat is lost (cobble, coarse woody habitat (fallen trees; CWH), and aquatic vegetation) under drought conditions across the United States. I used the National Lakes Assessment physical habitat data collected in summer 2012, when 75% of the U.S. experienced drought. I calculated the probability of cobble, CWH, and aquatic vegetation loss with lake level decline. I found cobble and CWH were highly vulnerable, where just 1 meter of lake level loss would result in nearly 100% habitat loss. Aquatic vegetation exhibited vulnerability but at a higher threshold. Multiyear drought will continue into the future with scientists estimating increases in drought frequency and severity, and we do not yet understand how or if aquatic animals will be resilient to a loss of littoral habitat. For example, previous research suggests food webs may be slow to recovery following littoral habitat loss. We must continue to evaluate the biological and environmental consequences of littoral habitat loss under drought conditions to successfully manage lakes and reservoirs into the future.

Research Project (M.R.M.) - Simon Fraser University, 2005.<br>Theses (School of Resource and Environmental Management) / Simon Fraser University. Research Project (School of Resource and Environmental Management) / Simon Fraser University.

Thesis (M.Dev.) --University of Limpopo, 2010<br>Living in informal settlements is associated, theoretically, with the exposure and vulnerability to Brown Environmental Problems. Literature further stresses the association of informal settlements and poor living conditions by demonstrating that the establishment of informal settlements around the cities is intricately associated with poor living conditions that enforce circumstances of perpetual risk and high levels of vulnerability to Brown Environmental Problems. Overcrowding, poor service provision and heavy reliance on dirty fuels characterizes informal settlements and therefore link these settlements and environmental risks and hazards. The link between informal settlements and environmental risks and hazards is in return making people who live in these settlements vulnerable to, among other things, the Brown Environmental Problems, such as indoor pollution, dirty water, poor sanitation and poor waste management. It therefore became increasingly necessary to investigate the vulnerability to Brown Environmental Problems associated within these settlements. The investigation was done in Seshego, Zone 6, mostly known as Shushumela (Rainbow-Park). The study adopted a combination of the qualitative and quantitative approaches. The qualitative approach was used to describe the characteristics of the informal settlement, the types and origins of the Brown Environmental Problems, the living conditions within the settlement, and to detail the individual accounts of the informal settlements population’s opinions and experiences on their vulnerability. Additionally, quantitative approach was used to measure the demographic profile of the households within the settlements, to determine the population density in the settlements, the frequency of the households’ exposure to a variety of Brown Environmental Problems and the amount of time of exposure to dirty fuels, dirty water, and poor sanitation. The prevalence rate of the different types of the Brown Environmental Problems was also quantitatively constructed. The study compiled its conceptual framework by digesting and synthesising contributions from the system of ideas that involves the general assumption about the relationship between informal settlements living conditions and vulnerability of the populations therein to Brown Environmental Problems. Zone 6 is an informal settlement in Seshego, this settlement is also known as Rainbow Park-Shushumela. Like other informal settlements, Shushumela comprises of people who need a place to stay but unable to find one due to various reasons one of them being affordability issue. Shushumela informal settlement does not have basic services. Its residents stay in shacks and use their own ways to survive the situation of living without electricity, adequate sanitation and waste removal services. The residents are exposed to various Brown Environmental Problems such as indoor air pollution due the use of paraffin wood and coal, waterborne diseases and sanitation-borne diseases due to the limited access of water and use of pit latrines. The residents’ overall living conditions expose them to Brown Environmental Problems.

[spa] Los trastornos internalizantes (TIs) son las psicopatologías más prevalentes en adultos y generan un gran deterioro en muchas áreas de la persona y de sus familiares. La edad media de inicio de muchos de estos trastornos se encuadra dentro de la adolescencia, motivo por el cual esta etapa se considera un periodo de riesgo para el desarrollo de TIs. La probabilidad de que un TI se mantenga de la adolescencia hasta la edad adulta es elevada, ya que estos problemas no son suficientemente detectados por los sistemas de atención primaria. En este sentido, el estudio de los factores de vulnerabilidad relacionados con los TIs puede ayudar esclarecer la génesis y el mantenimiento de estos trastornos y, consecuentemente, ayudar a diseñar programas de prevención y de intervención basados en la evidencia empírica. Por lo que sabemos, la evidencia disponible sobre este tema en adolescentes es limitada. Tradicionalmente, el estudio de la psicopatología se ha centrado en concepciones lineales de la conducta humana. En respuesta a ello, la Teoría de los Sistemas Dinámicos (TSD), una perspectiva reciente dentro del ámbito de la psicología, puede ser útil a la hora de incrementar nuestro conocimiento sobre la conducta humana como lo que es: un fenómeno complejo y no lineal. El objetivo principal de esta tesis fue utilizar la TSD como marco teórico para dar respuesta a algunas de las lagunas existentes sobre la vulnerabilidad psicológica y fisiológica para el desarrollo de TIs en adolescentes. Se intentó dar respuesta a dos preguntas generales: a) ¿Se puede distinguir entre adolescentes sanos más y menos vulnerables a desarrollar TIs, mediante el uso de índices de complejidad afectiva y cardíaca?, b) ¿Cómo se relacionan la complejidad afectiva y cardíaca de los adolescentes sanos con otros factores de vulnerabilidad para los TIs ya establecidos, como el sexo, los síntomas de ansiedad o la desregulación emocional? Se diseñaron cinco estudios en condiciones ecológicas o de laboratorio con el objetivo de obtener una mejor representación de las dinámicas afectivas y cardíacas. En el estudio 1, una muestra de adolescentes sanos informó sobre sus niveles de estado de ánimo, ansiedad y preocupación, dos veces al día durante un periodo de 100 días. Los estudios 2 y 3 consistieron en registrar la actividad cardíaca de adolescentes sanos durante 120 minutos mientras llevaban a cabo actividades diarias dentro del contexto académico. La muestra del estudio 2 se dividió en dos grupos en función del sexo (chicos/chicas) y del nivel de ansiedad (alto/bajo). Para el estudio 3 se seleccionó una muestra aleatoria, independiente del nivel de ansiedad de los participantes. En los estudios 4 y 5 se registró la respuesta cardíaca de adolescentes sanos mientras se sometían a un protocolo de inducción de estrés social. El estilo de regulación emocional de los participantes también se evaluó en el estudio 4. Casi todos los exponentes de escala demostraron su fractalidad y multiestabilidad. Además, los exponentes de preocupación correlacionaron positivamente con el control intencional, y negativamente con la afectividad negativa y la necesidad de afiliación (estudio 1). En referencia a la complejidad cardíaca se encontró que ésta era inferior en las chicas en comparación con los chicos (estudios 2, 3 y 5), así como en aquellos adolescentes con una mayor tendencia a utilizar estrategias de regulación emocional negativas en general, pero solo cuando pasaron de la fase de estrés a la de recuperación (estudio 4). También se observó que, a menor complejidad cardíaca, mayor nivel de síntomas internalizantes (estudio 3). Finalmente, el sexo femenino predijo una menor complejidad cardíaca, al contrario que el estilo de regulación emocional negativo, que se observó que estaba positivamente relacionado con la complejidad cardíaca (estudio 4). En resumen, esta tesis doctoral demuestra que las fluctuaciones afectivas y cardíacas se encuentran bajo procesos de regulación complejos con memoria, que tienen en cuenta la información de diferentes escalas temporales para asegurar una adaptación más exitosa a la vida diaria. También se concluye que aquellos adolescentes más vulnerables a desarrollar un TI (chicas, mayores síntomas de ansiedad o estrategias de regulación emocional disfuncionales) parecen tener menores niveles de complejidad afectiva y cardíaca que aquellos adolescentes menos vulnerables. Por tanto, una complejidad/flexibilidad afectiva y cardíaca reducidas podrían constituir marcadores psicológicos y fisiológicos de un patrón desadaptativo a la hora de confrontar demandas internas y externas<br>[cat] Els trastorns internalitzants (TIs) són les psicopatologies amb major prevalença en adults i generen un gran deteriorament en moltes àrees de la persona i dels seus familiars. L’edat mitjana d’inici de molts d’aquests trastorns s’emmarca dins l’adolescència, motiu pel qual aquesta etapa és considerada un període de risc per al desenvolupament de TIs. La probabilitat que un TI es mantingui de l’adolescència fins a l’edat adulta és elevada, ja que aquests problemes no són suficientment detectats pels sistemes d’atenció primerenca. En aquest sentit, l’estudi de factors de vulnerabilitat relacionats amb els TIs pot ajudar a esclarir la gènesi i el manteniment d’aquests trastorns i, conseqüentment, ajudar a dissenyar programes de prevenció i d’intervenció basats en l’evidència empírica. Pel que sabem, l’evidència disponible sobre aquest tema en adolescents és limitada. Tradicionalment, l’estudi de la psicopatologia s’ha centrat en concepcions lineals de la conducta humana. En resposta a això, la Teoria dels Sistemes Dinàmics (TSD), una perspectiva recent dins l’àmbit de la psicologia, pot ser útil a l’hora d’incrementar el nostre coneixement sobre la conducta humana com el que és: un fenomen complex i no lineal.L’objectiu principal d’aquesta tesi va ser emprar la TSD com a marc teòric per a donar resposta a algunes de les llacunes existents sobre la vulnerabilitat psicològica i fisiològica per al desenvolupament de TIs en adolescents. Es va intentar donar resposta a dues preguntes generals: a) Es pot distingir entre adolescents sans més i menys vulnerables a desenvolupar TIs, mitjançant l’ús d’índexs de complexitat afectiva i complexitat cardíaca?, b) Com es relacionen la complexitat afectiva i cardíaca dels adolescents sans amb altres factors de vulnerabilitat per als TIs ja establerts, com el sexe, els símptomes internalitzants o la desregulació emocional? Es van dissenyar cinc estudis sota condicions ecològiques o de laboratori, amb l’objectiu d’obtenir una millor representació de les dinàmiques afectives i cardíaques. En l’estudi 1, una mostra d’adolescents sans va informar sobre els seus nivells d’estat d’ànim, ansietat i preocupació, dues vegades per dia durant un període de 100 dies. Els estudis 2 i 3 van consistir en l’enregistrament de l’activitat cardíaca d’adolescents sans durant 120 minuts mentre duien a terme les seves activitats diàries dins el context acadèmic. La mostra de l’estudi 2 es va dividir en dos grups en funció del sexe (nins/nines) i del nivell d’ansietat (alt/baix). Per a l’estudi 3 es va seleccionar una mostra aleatòria, independent del nivell d’ansietat dels participants. En els estudis 4 i 5 es va enregistrar la resposta cardíaca d’adolescents sans mentre es sotmetien a un protocol d’inducció d’estrès social. L’estil de regulació emocional dels participants també es va avaluar durant l’estudi 4. Quasi tots els exponents d’escala varen demostrar la seva fractalitat i multiestabilitat. A més a més, els exponents de preocupació correlacionaren positivament amb el control intencional, i negativament amb l’afectivitat negativa i la necessitat d’afiliació (estudi 1). En referència a la complexitat cardíaca, es va trobar que aquesta era més baixa en les nines en comparació amb els nins (estudis 2, 3 i 5), així com en aquells adolescents amb una major tendència a emprar estratègies de regulació emocional més negatives en general, però només quan passaren de la fase d’estrès a la de recuperació (estudi 4). També es va observar que a menor complexitat cardíaca, major nivell de símptomes internalitzants (estudi 3). Finalment, el sexe femení va predir una menor complexitat cardíaca, al contrari de l’estil de regulació emocional negatiu, que es va trobar que estava positivament relacionat amb la complexitat cardíaca (estudi 4). En resum, aquesta tesi doctoral demostra que les fluctuacions afectives i cardíaques es troben sota processos de regulació complexos amb memòria, que tenen en compte la informació de diferents escales temporals per assegurar una adaptació més exitosa a la vida diària. També es conclou que aquells adolescents més vulnerables a desenvolupar un TI (nines, majors símptomes internalitzants o estratègies de regulació emocional disfuncionals) semblen tenir menors nivells de complexitat afectiva i cardíaca que aquells adolescents menys vulnerables. Per tant, una complexitat/flexibilitat afectiva i cardíaca reduïdes podrien constituir marcadors psicològics i fisiològics d’un patró desadaptatiu a l’hora de confrontar demandes internes i externes.<br>[eng] The internalizing disorders (IDs) are the highest prevalent psychopathological conditions in adults and cause great impairment in several areas of the individual and their relatives. Since adolescence marks the median age of onset for many IDs, it is considered a risk period for their development. Unfortunately, these problems are not sufficiently detected in primary care and the probability of maintaining an ID from adolescence to adulthood is high. The study of related vulnerability factors can help to disentangle the genesis and the maintenance of IDs, and consequently to design empirically based prevention and intervention programs. As far as we know, the evidence in adolescent population is still scarce. Traditionally, the study of psychopathology has focused on linear conceptions of human behavior. The Dynamic System Theory (DST), a recent perspective in the field of Psychology, can be a useful strategy for understanding human behavior as it is, a complex nonlinear phenomenon. The main objective of the present thesis was to overcome some gaps regarding the psychological and physiological vulnerability for IDs in adolescents, using the DST as the main theoretical framework. Two general questions were tried to answer: a) Can cardiac and affective complexity indexes help to distinguish between healthy adolescents more vulnerable and less vulnerable to experience IDs?, b) How are affective and cardiac complexity from healthy adolescents related to other established IDs-related vulnerability factors, such as sex, internalizing symptomatology or emotion dysregulation? Five studies were designed in ecological or laboratory conditions, in order to obtain a better representation of cardiovascular and affective dynamics. In the study 1, a sample of healthy adolescents reported their daily mood, anxiety and worry levels twice a day over a period of 100 days. In the studies 2 and 3, the cardiac activity of healthy adolescents was recorded during 120 minutes while performing regular activities within the academic context. The sample of the study 2 was divided into two groups according to sex (male/female) and anxiety symptoms level (high/low). The sample of the study 3 was randomly selected, regardless of their level of anxiety symptoms. In the studies 4 and 5, the cardiac activity of healthy adolescents was recorded while performing a socially relevant stress induction protocol. The emotion regulation style of the participants from the study 4 was also assessed. Almost all scaling exponents proved their fractal nature and multistability. Furthermore, worry exponents were positively correlated with effortful control, and negatively associated with negative affectivity and affiliativeness (study 1). Regarding cardiac complexity, it was found to be lower in females in comparison to males (study 2, 3 and 5), as well as in adolescents prone to engage in more negative emotion regulation strategies in general, but only when they switched from stress to recovery (study 4). Prediction analyses showed that the lower the cardiac complexity, the higher the internalizing symptoms (study 3). Finally, the female sex predicted a lower cardiac complexity, but the negative emotion regulation style was positively related to cardiac complexity (study 4). In summary, this doctoral thesis proves that the affective and cardiac fluctuations of healthy adolescents are under complex regulation processes that have memory and take into account information from different time scales, to successfully adapt to their daily life. It is also concluded that healthy adolescents more vulnerable to IDs (females, higher internalizing symptoms or emotion dysregulation strategies) seem to have lower levels of affective and cardiac complexity than less vulnerable adolescents. Therefore, this attenuated cardiac and affective flexibility/complexity may constitute physiological and psychological markers of a maladaptive pattern to confront internal and environmental challenges.

<p>This study deals with the perspective of vulnerability of the Swedish electricity distribution system to climate and weather related risks. How and to what extent the electricity sector is adapting to the risk and what possibilities are formed in this respect are investigated. This is a quantitative and qualitative analysis where statistical data has been used to apprehend the extent of disturbances of the electricity distribution system and their causes. Interviews have been used in order to investigate different views among actors working within the electricity distribution system sector.</p><p>The result shows that the dominating cause of disturbances in the electrical network in Sweden is the weather, giving most hours of breaks. The countryside has more often disturbances than urban areas. It also emerges that it is the lines overhead that are most affected by disturbances. The system is flexible. If one line is disturbed the electricity can be distributed using another line (redundancy). It seems like there is a diversion between the respondents on how and if a future climate change really is a risk for the electricity distribution system. It is clear that the vulnerability has increased in the society during the past 10-20 years, and so has the societal costs of the disturbances because of the increasing dependence on electricity. Reducing the consequences of a weather related impact on the electrical system will make society more resilient and less vulnerable. The respondents in this study are somewhat adapting to the weather related risks that they have identified with technical solutions. It is important to learn more about how the electrical system properties influence the sensitivity in society. There is a need to investigate the dependency of electricity in society. It is also important that all the actors have the same interpretation of the difference between a recurrent event and a nature disaster. More work should be done to clarify where the responsibility for adapting the electrical sector to the possible climate change lies. This complex responsibility issue with all affected actors influences the sensitivity of society and the electrical system.</p>

Master of Science<br>Department of Agricultural Economics<br>Andrew Barkley<br>This study examines the effect of extreme climatic conditions (drought, flood, and bushfires) on the livelihood of households in the Bawku West district of Ghana. The research identified the mechanisms with which households cope in such situations, and analyzed factors influencing the adoption of coping strategies for flood, coping strategies for drought, and coping strategies for bushfires. Data for the study were collected in selected villages across the district in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 extreme climatic events (a prolonged drought period followed by an erratic rainfall). A binary logit regression (BLR) model was then specified to estimate factors that influence the adoption of a given coping mechanisms. Results from the BLR model indicate that literacy level, membership with an FBO, household income, and location of households had positive and significant impacts on adaptation to drought. Similarly, source of seeds for planting, membership with an FBO, household income, and farm size had positive significant influence on adaptation to flood. Adaption to bushfire was positively influenced by radio ownership, seed source and income. The main effect of these climatic extreme events on households included destruction of crops, livestock and buildings; food and water shortage; poor yield or harvest and limited fields for livestock grazing. Therefore, government policies should be geared towards creating revenue generating channels and in strengthening institutions that provide access to farm credit, readily available improve seeds and extension. Additionally, policies that expedite information dissemination through radio and other public media will enhance households’ adaptive capacity.

Abstract This exchange, our second transnational engagement, is placed against the backdrop of a global increase in attention to both research and advocacy efforts in the menstrual experience, however cognizant of how some voices and bodies remain silent, invisible, and displaced from global efforts The authors argue that these include the experiences of the most vulnerable, who are physically limited in their ability to manage their menstrual health. To demonstrate, this study looks through the lens of women living under three challenging circumstances—women with disabilities, incarcerated women, and women living in a disaster zone—to explore how they understand, manage, and respond to their menstrual needs. The authors show how the double stigma of the women’s condition or context, with that of their menstruating status, exacerbates their vulnerability, creating further boundaries to their health and well-being.

An open phase condition is a known phenomenon in the power industry and is now recognized to have adverse impact on the electrical power systems in several nuclear power plants. An open phase condition may result in challenging plant safety. Operating experience in different countries has shown that the currently installed instrumentation and protective schemes have not been adequate to detect this condition and take appropriate action. An open phase condition, if not detected and disconnected in a timely manner, represents design vulnerability for many nuclear power plants. It may lead to a condition where neither the offsite power system nor the onsite power system is able to support the safety functions, and could propagate to station blackout. The design of electrical power systems needs to be evaluated systematically and improved, where necessary, to minimize the probability of losing electric power from any of the remaining supplies as a result of single or double open phase conditions. The improved design should be coordinated with existing measures to ensure that the electrical power system is able to support the safety functions after the open phase condition is detected and disconnected. In this regard, the IAEA has developed a safety publication dealing with design vulnerability of open phase conditions. This paper summarizes the contents of the report, the rationale and criteria to enhance the safety of nuclear power plants by providing technical guidance to address an open phase condition vulnerability in electrical systems used to start up, operate, maintain and shutdown the nuclear power plant.

&lt;p&gt;Recently, the engineering interest about the durability of existing reinforced concrete structures has significantly increased as confirmed by the conspicuous scientific literature. The results of these studies are influencing the development of new structural codes. Among the wide range of existing reinforced concrete structures, motorway viaducts stand out for their strategic relevance. Most of these structures were built between ’60 and ’70 years and, nowadays, the materials degradation phenomena are leading to strength capacity reduction, either in serviceability condition or in presence of exceptional loads such as the seismic action. In order to evaluate the degradation phenomena effects on the seismic vulnerability of motorway viaducts, this paper shows an efficient procedure to evaluate the seismic performance of reinforced concrete bridges starting from the modelling of the materials degradation, according to several scenarios, and by carrying out multimodal pushover analyses.&lt;/p&gt;

A new approach to Vulnerability, Uncertainty and Probability (VUP) quantification procedure using Stochastic Petri Nets within a network of interacting satellites is presented. A Stochastic Petri Net based model is developed to quantify VUP in a network of interacting satellites. Three indicators are proposed to determine the VUP definitions in interacting network of satellites. The proposed VUP quantification scheme addresses a methodology which employs a Stochastic Petri Net for quantitative analysis of the behavior of the network. With the random variables associated with the Petri Net transitions, the dynamic behavior of the cooperating satellites in a SPN model can be mapped onto a time-continuous Markov chain with discrete state space. After generating a Markov Stochastic Petri Net model, the probability of a given condition in the network at a specified time can be computed and quantified as well as the vulnerability and uncertainty of the system using the identified indicators.

Piping systems of energy industries in oil &amp; gas play a critical role in meeting the increasing global energy demand. A great portion of these pipelines is located in high seismic-prone areas. Such systems have been found to be quite vulnerable to seismic events. Current seismic design approaches to piping systems are mainly based on the allowable stress method, even though more modern design methods are currently available for buildings or nuclear power plants; for example, the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework has not been applied yet to piping systems and relevant structures. In this respect, both information about the quantification of limit states for pipes and adequate non-linear structural models for seismic analysis of piping systems and relevant structures are very limited. One of the key ingredients of PBEE approach for the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of existing structures is the evaluation of fragility curves, namely the probability of exceeding a certain level of damage for a given seismic intensity measure (IM). However, the contributions in the literature on this delicate aspect are very limited. This paper deals with such a problem by using a very popular method, namely the Cloud Analysis, originally developed as a method for probabilistic seismic demand analysis of civil structures. This method is here applied to a typical piping system for process plants. For this purpose, the structure is properly modelled, especially support structure and pipe, including pipe fittings like elbows and bolted flange joints. Using natural accelerograms selected from the PEER database and in accordance with given hazard conditions, the probabilistic seismic demand analysis is performed adopting different engineering demand parameters (EDP) consistent with the damage states expected in the pipes and fittings and in the support structure. According to the results of experimental tests campaign performed in the past by some of the authors on flanged joints, and elbows, different damage states (leakage, yielding, rupture) have been identified and related to the corresponding EDP and the corresponding probability of exceeding has been determined by assuming a lognormal distribution of the response. The analysis intends to recognise the most probable damage condition in a refinery piping system subjected to a seismic input.

&lt;p&gt;A growing interest concerning the seismic risk assessment at urban scale has been observed. In Italy, recent earthquakes highlighted the vulnerability of the built environment causing severe damage and a high number of casualties. In addition, historical city centres are part of the cultural heritage and their preservation is deemed necessary. For these reasons, understanding how to assess urban systems behaviour is crucial. A major step in this direction is the definition of the Emergency Limit Condition (ELC), by the Civil Protection Department. More recently, a theoretical framework with four additional urban limit conditions has been proposed. This paper tries to take a step forward in this direction by assigning specific performance goals to defined urban limit conditions. These goals are linked to different level of damage and functionality loss of buildings and infrastructures and the possible short-to-long term effects on the population and economy.&lt;/p&gt;

The U.S. national parks have experienced significant climate-change impacts and rapid, on-going changes are expected to continue. Despite the significant climate-change vulnerabilities facing parks, relatively few parks have conducted comprehensive climate-change vulnerability assessments, defined as assessments that synthesize vulnerability information from a wide range of sources, identify key climate-change impacts, and prioritize vulnerable park resources (Michalak et al. In review). In recognition that funding and planning capacity is limited, this project was initiated to identify geographies, parks, and issues that are high priorities for conducting climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVA) and strategies to efficiently address the need for CCVAs across all U.S. National Park Service (NPS) park units (hereafter “parks”) and all resources. To help identify priority geographies and issues, we quantitatively assessed the relative magnitude of vulnerability factors potentially affecting park resources and values. We identified multiple vulnerability factors (e.g., temperature change, wildfire potential, number of at-risk species, etc.) and sought existing datasets that could be developed into indicators of these factors. To be included in the study, datasets had to be spatially explicit or already summarized for individual parks and provide consistent data for at least all parks within the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The need for consistent data across such a large geographic extent limited the number of datasets that could be included, excluded some important drivers of climate-change vulnerability, and prevented adequate evaluation of some geographies. The lack of adequately-scaled data for many key vulnerability factors, such as freshwater flooding risks and increased storm activity, highlights the need for both data development and more detailed vulnerability assessments at local to regional scales where data for these factors may be available. In addition, most of the available data at this scale were related to climate-change exposures, with relatively little data available for factors associated with climate-change sensitivity or adaptive capacity. In particular, we lacked consistent data on the distribution or abundance of cultural resources or accessible data on infrastructure across all parks. We identified resource types, geographies, and critical vulnerability factors that lacked data for NPS’ consideration in addressing data gaps. Forty-seven indicators met our criteria, and these were combined into 21 climate-change vulnerability factors. Twenty-seven indicators representing 12 vulnerability factors addressed climate-change exposure (i.e., projected changes in climate conditions and impacts). A smaller number of indictors measured sensitivity (12 indicators representing 5 vulnerability factors). The sensitivity indicators often measured park or landscape characteristics which may make resources more or less responsive to climate changes (e.g., current air quality) as opposed to directly representing the sensitivity of specific resources within the park (e.g., a particular rare species or type of historical structure). Finally, 6 indicators representing 4 vulnerability factors measured external adaptive capacity for living resources (i.e., characteristics of the park and/or surrounding landscape which may facilitate or impede species adaptation to climate changes). We identified indicators relevant to three resource groups: terrestrial living, aquatic living (including living cultural resources such as culturally significant landscapes, plant, or animal species) and non-living resources (including infrastructure and non-living cultural resources such as historic buildings or archeological sites). We created separate indicator lists for each of these resource groups and analyzed them separately. To identify priority geographies within CONUS,...

The trees, developed green spaces, and natural areas within the City of Austin’s 400,882 acres will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the City Austin to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how less common native species, nonnative species, and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening trees and forests in Austin. Major current threats to the region’s urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, and development. Austin has been warming at a rate of about 0.4°F per decade since measurements began in 1938 and temperature is expected to increase by 5 to 10°F by the end of this century compared to the most recent 30-year average. Both increases in heavy rain events and severe droughts are projected for the future, and the overall balance of precipitation and temperature may shift Austin’s climate to be more similar to the arid Southwest. Species distribution modeling of native trees suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 14 primarily northern species, and increase for four more southern species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that only 3% of the trees estimated to be present in Austin based on the most recent Urban FIA estimate were considered to have low vulnerability in developed areas. Using a panel of local experts, we also assessed the vulnerability of developed and natural areas. All areas were rated as having moderate to moderate-high vulnerability, but the underlying factors driving that vulnerability differed by natural community and between East and West Austin. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning.

A non-stationary climate imposes considerable challenges regarding potential public health concerns. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which occurs every 2 to 7 years, correlates positively with occurrences of the waterborne disease cholera. The warm sea surface temperatures and extreme weather associated with ENSO create optimal conditions for breeding the Vibrio cholerae pathogen and for human exposure to the pathogenic waters. This work explored the impacts of ENSO on cholera occurrence rates over the past 50 years by examining annual rates of suspected cholera cases per country in relation to ENSO Index values. This study provides a relationship indicating when hydrologic conditions are optimal for cholera growth, and presents a statistical approach to answer three questions: Are cholera outbreaks more likely to occur in an El Niño year? What other factors impact cholera outbreaks? How will the future climate impact cholera incidence rates as it relates to conditions found in ENSO? Cholera outbreaks from the 1960s to the present are examined focusing on regions of Central and South America, and southern Asia. By examining the predictive relationship between climate variability and cholera, we can draw conclusions about future vulnerability to cholera and other waterborne pathogenic diseases.

Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter’s recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own.

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governor

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor