Academic literature on the topic 'Consecutive dry days'

Rainfall is a crucial agrometeorological parameter that impacts hydrology and agricultural planning in a region. The spatiotemporal changes in the occurrences of precipitation extremes must be monitored to reduce the hazards caused by the fluctuating rainfall pattern. The extreme rainfall indices for each year categorized under excess, normal and deficit rainfall categories were calculated over the agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu using the high-resolution CHIRPS datasets from 1991 to 2022. The results highlighted that High Rainfall Zone has more consecutive wet days (22 days), minimum consecutive dry days (25 days) and Daily Intensity Index with threshold of 2.5 mm (28.6 mm) compared to other zones. The maximum consecutive dry days of 99 days, a high rainy day of 142 days, and minimum daily intensity of 8.9 mm are experienced by the Cauvery Delta Zone, High Altitude and Hilly Zone, and Western Zone, respectively. Overall, the High Rainfall Zone faces a higher number of extreme rainfall events in terms of wet days and intensity, whereas the average maximum consecutive dry days and minimum rainfall intensity is observed over the north eastern zone and north western zone, respectively indicating high dry periods.

Precipitation is among the more limiting meteorological factors affecting the occurrence and extent of forest fire. We examined the correlation between burned area of individual wildfires and the rainfall amounts occurring on the day of the burn and the number of consecutive dry days for a range of limiting daily rainfall amounts (0–6mm) used to define a “dry” day. Daily threshold rainfall levels that most significantly affected area burned were determined for each ecoregion in Yunnan province, a major fire-prone area, in southwestern China. Results showed that the burned area of a wildfire decreased exponentially with increasing rainfall amounts on the day of burning. Burned area was also positively correlated to the number of consecutive dry days prior to burning. The threshold rainfall value providing the highest correlation between burned area and the number of consecutive dry days prior to a burn varied between ecoregions. Consecutive dry days with rainfall less than the specified threshold predominantly affected large fires (>100 ha) rather than more frequently occurring small fires. These results will help forest managers evaluate regionalfire danger indices for forest fire prevention, particularly for catastrophic forest wildfires causing significant economic losses and threats to human life and environment.

The Primary aim in this paper is to find an alternative approach that consists of modeling the pattern of dry and wet spell over some districts of Assam. The Markov Chain Model is used to predict the length of dry and wet spells during the Indian summer monsoon season (June to September). This information may help the agronomists and agricultural scientists in crop planning. Five districts viz., Dibrugarh, Kamrup, Sonitpur, Dhemaji and North­ Lakhimpur are considered here for this study. Markov Chain Model is fitted for each of the district and the results of the five districts are pooled. This pooled result reveals that during the period 1987-1992, the probability for the day being wet when the immediately preceding day is dry for different years varies from 0.44 to 0.54 while the probability of the day being wet when the immediately preceding day is wet for different years varies from 0.74 to 0.86. It is also found that in the Indian summer monsoon season after about every consecutive 4 - 7 wet days a dry day is expected to occur whereas alter about consecutive 2 dry days, a wet day is expected to occur. The number of days required for the process to reach the state of equilibrium varies from 4 - 7 days.

West Kalimantan has experienced significant loss of wet primary forests in recent years. During 2017-2021, the region also faced considerable forest and land fires compared to other areas in Kalimantan. Factors such as low rainfall and prolonged drought have contributed to the occurrence of forest fire. This research was conducted using daily rainfall data at 127 observation points and hotspot data during 2012 to 2021. The research results show monthly CDD characteristics in West Kalimantan, with the highest number of CDD occurring in Kubu Raya Regency for 126 days and the lowest in Kayong Utara, Melawi, Kubu Raya, Sambas, Kapuas Hulu, Bengkayang, Mempawah, Sintang, and Pontianak City for 3 days. The hotspot distribution pattern indicates the highest number of hotspots occurring in August throughout the 10-year period. Hotspots probability varies for each CDD category: very short CDD has a probability ranging from 0.01 to 0.11, short CDD has a probability ranging from 0.03 to 0.33, moderate CDD has a probability ranging from 0.03 to 0.38, long CDD has a probability ranging from 0.00 to 0.53, very long CDD has a probability ranging from 0.00 to 0.43, and extremely long CDD has a probability ranging from 0.10 to 0.48.

Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) plants were exposed, in controlled environments with 2.7 kJ/(m2 ∙ day) background ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation from fluorescent and incandescent lamps, to ambient (380 μL ∙ L−1) or elevated (600 μL−1) CO2 combined with a total of 7.2 or 13.1 kJ/(m2 ∙ day) UV-B radiation to determine effects on growth and photosynthesis. Ten consecutive days of exposure to the higher level of UV-B significantly reduced total and stem dry weight, leaf area, and plant height compared with the lower level. Only leaf area and plant height were significantly reduced after 19 consecutive days of exposure. To investigate whether plants recover from UV-B damage, the UV-B exposures were halted for 3 days after 19 days of UV-B exposure and then restarted for a further 2 days. The largest reduction in plant growth was found after 3 days with no UV-B followed by 2 days of the higher level of UV-B. Plants did not recover from UV-B damage during the 3 days with background UV-B. Significant CO2xUV-B interactions were detected on stem dry weight after 10 consecutive days of the higher level of UV-B and on total dry weight, leaf dry weight, stem dry weight, and plant height after 3 days with no UV-B followed by 2 days of the higher level of UV-B. The higher dose of enhanced UV-B resulted in more severe damage at 600 μL ∙ L−1 CO2, than at ambient CO2. The higher level of UV-B did not affect the leaf net photosynthesis rate on a leaf area basis, although this UV-B level may have inhibited tomato growth through reducing the photosynthetic area. UV-absorbing compounds in leaves in the highest UV-B radiation level for 19 days were greater than for leaves with the lower dose. These UV-absorbing compounds in the higher UV-B dose diminished more than in the lower dose plants during the 3 days without UV-B. The UV-absorbing compounds maintained by plants exposed to the highest level of UV-B radiation may have protected plants from UV-B damage, particularly between 10 and 19 consecutive days of exposure. Key words: CO2, growth, Lycopersicon esculentum Mill., photosynthesis, tomato, ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B), UV-absorbing compounds.

This study evaluates the impacts of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) on precipitation-related climate extremes in Southeast Asia. Using simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS), we assess spatial anomalies and differences in extreme precipitation indices—number of wet days (RR1), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), consecutive dry days (CDD), and consecutive wet days (CWD)—relative to historical (1980–2009) and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) baselines. The results reveal that SRM induces highly heterogeneous precipitation responses across the region. While SRM increases rainfall frequency in parts of Indonesia, it reduces the number of wet days and lengthens dry spells over Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. Spatial variations are also observed in changes to heavy precipitation days and multi-day rainfall events, with potential implications for flood and drought risks. These findings highlight the complex trade-offs in hydrological responses under SRM deployment, with important considerations for agriculture, water resource management, and climate adaptation strategies in Southeast Asia.

No<br>A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active." Building on earlier studies in this series in which we describe the methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multiday periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods and, conversely, correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event, and event/no-event) and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day 1 remains high/low on day 2, even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line.

A New Imperial History of Northern Eurasia, 600-1700 proposes a new language for studying and conceptualizing the spaces, societies, and institutions that existed on the territory of today’s Northern Eurasia, until recently part of the USSR. Traditional concepts and genealogies that frame human experience have to be avoided or reframed: this is not the story of a certain present-day state or people evolving through consecutive historical stages. Rather, the book’s point of departure is a modern analytical approach to the problem of human diversity as a fundamental social condition. In the form of cooperation and confrontation, various attempts to manage diversity fostered processes of societal self-organization, as new ideas, practices, and institutions were developed virtually from scratch or radically altered when borrowed. Essentially, this is the story of individuals and societies who creatively responded to their natural and social environments and sought answers to universal problems in unique historical circumstances. This volume, which brings together leading scholars from both the United States and Russia, covers a millennium-long period in the history of the region characterized by the coexistence of several local sociopolitical arrangements. The book shows that their mutual interactions and attempts to integrate with one of the universal cultures of the time caused a string of unintended consequences. As a result, the enormous landmass from the Carpathian Mountains in the west to the Pacific Ocean in the east, from the Polar Circle in the north to the steppe belt in the south was divided among several regional powers. Ultimately unable to overtake each other by military force, they were locked in a zero-sum game until the uneven development of modern state institutions tilted the balance in favor of one of them – Russia.

The 306 is a trilogy of music-theatre works co-created by composer Gareth Williams and writer Oliver Emanuel that explore the stories of the 306 British soldiers executed during World War 1. Many of these 306 men, executed for cowardice, desertion and mutiny are not listed on any official memorials, even after they were conditionally pardoned by the British Government in 2006. This work gathered all of these names for the first time, listing them in song to complete the trilogy. As a part of 14-18 NOW (the UK-wide commemorative cultural program of work from 2016 – 2018) The 306 explored ideas of heroism and protest, by looking at this lesser known, deliberately forgotten, part of our national storyabout the cultural legacy of World War 1. Drawing on primary documents such as letters and telegrams from the front lines, protest songs and documents describing the women’s peace movement in Glasgow, music hall and classical repertoire, as well as contemporary interviews with family members of those executed for cowardice during WW1, the stories and songs were developed continuously from 2013 through to 2018, in residencies, workshops, and rehearsals. 306 Dawn and 306 Day were written for an ensemble of singing actors, and Red Note Ensemble (piano, violin and cello), while 306 Dusk was created for three singing actors, piano, string quartet, and community choir of 40 singers formed in Perth for the production. Throughcomposed across different productions in three consecutive seasons, the work challenges and progresses the role and status of live music in Scottish theatre. The music has been recorded as an album, funded by the Imperial War Museum, and was released by the National Theatre of Scotland in 2020.

A New Imperial History of Northern Eurasia, 1700-1918proposes a new language for studying and conceptualizing the spaces, societies, and institutions that existed on the territory of today’s Northern Eurasia, until recently part of the USSR. Traditional concepts and genealogies that frame human experience have to be avoided or reframed: this is not the story of a certain present-day state or people evolving through consecutive historical stages. Rather, the book’s point of departure is a modern analytical approach to the problem of human diversity as a fundamental social condition. In the form of cooperation and confrontation, various attempts to manage diversity fostered processes of societal self-organization, as new ideas, practices, and institutions were developed virtually from scratch or radically altered when borrowed. Essentially, this is the story of individuals and societies who creatively responded to their natural and social environments and sought answers to universal problems in unique historical circumstances. This volume, which brings together leading scholars from both the United States and Russia, covers the period during which the enormous landmass from the Carpathian Mountains in the west to the Pacific Ocean in the east, from the Polar Circle in the north to the steppe belt in the south was put under the control of a single polity: the Russian Empire. Previously, the competing local scenarios of self-organization had taken specific political forms that suited them best. This book shows that the Russian Empire faced the daunting task of coordinating multifaceted diversity within a single political and legal body, under constantly changing domestic and international circumstances. The study reveals that, to this end, the imperial regime employed various means, from violence to science, from segregation to integration, and yet was still unable to block multiple political actors within the empire from advancing their own strategies of belonging, resistance, and participation.

AbstractClimate change impact on rainfall and temperature extreme indices in the Vea catchment was analyzed using observation and an ensemble mean of bias-corrected regional climate models datasets for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) scenario. Rainfall extreme indices such as annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), extremely wet days (R99P), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), and temperature indices such as warmest day (TXx) and warmest night (TNx) from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI) were computed for both the historical (1986–2016) and future (2020–2049) period using the RClimdex. The parametric ordinary least square (OLS) regression approach was used to detect trends in the time series of climate change and extreme indices. The results show an increase in mean annual temperature at the rate of 0.02 °C/year and a variability in rainfall at the catchment, under RCP 4.5 scenario. The warmest day and warmest night were projected to increase by 0.8 °C and 0.3 °C, respectively, in the future relative to the historical period. The intensity (e.g., R99p) and frequency (e.g., CDD) of extreme rainfall indices were projected to increase by 29 mm and 26 days, respectively, in the future. This is an indication of the vulnerability of the catchment to the risk of climate disasters (e.g., floods and drought). Adaptation strategies such as early warning systems, availability of climate information, and flood control measures are recommended to reduce the vulnerability of the people to the risk of the projected impact of climate extreme in the future.

AbstractClimate change impact on rainfall and temperature extreme indices in the Vea catchment was analyzed using observation and an ensemble mean of bias-corrected regional climate models datasets for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) scenario. Rainfall extreme indices such as annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), extremely wet days (R99P), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), and temperature indices such as warmest day (TXx) and warmest night (TNx) from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI) were computed for both the historical (1986–2016) and future (2020–2049) period using the RClimdex. The parametric ordinary least square (OLS) regression approach was used to detect trends in the time series of climate change and extreme indices. The results show an increase in mean annual temperature at the rate of 0.02 °C/year and a variability in rainfall at the catchment, under RCP 4.5 scenario. The warmest day and warmest night were projected to increase by 0.8 °C and 0.3 °C, respectively, in the future relative to the historical period. The intensity (e.g., R99p) and frequency (e.g., CDD) of extreme rainfall indices were projected to increase by 29 mm and 26 days, respectively, in the future. This is an indication of the vulnerability of the catchment to the risk of climate disasters (e.g., floods and drought). Adaptation strategies such as early warning systems, availability of climate information, and flood control measures are recommended to reduce the vulnerability of the people to the risk of the projected impact of climate extreme in the future.

AbstractIt is commonly accepted that the Earth’s climate is changing and will continue to change in the future. Rising temperatures are one of the direct indicators of global climate change. To investigate how the rising global temperature will affect the spatial pattern of rainfall in West Africa, the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration variables from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario were driven by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) and analyzed at four specific global warming levels (GWLs) (i.e., 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C) above the preindustrial level. This study utilized three indices, the precipitation concentration index (PCI), the precipitation concentration degree (PCD), and the precipitation concentration period (PCP) over West Africa to explore the spatiotemporal variations in the characteristics of precipitation concentrations. Besides, the analysis of the effect of the specified GWLs on the Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), and frequency of the intense rainfall events allowed to a better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in West Africa. Results reveal that, for the projections simulations and at each GWL, the rainfall onset starts one month earlier in the Gulf of Guinea in response to the control period. To encourage adaptation to the various changes in climate in general, and particularly in respect of rainfall, this study proposes several adaptation methods that can be implemented at the local (country) level, as well as some mitigation and adaptation strategies at the regional (West African) level.

AbstractIn a Danish context regular (weekly or biweekly) education outside the classroom (EOtC), school-based outdoor learning or learning outside the classroom (LOtC) is called udeskole and aims to enhance both health and education. The purpose of this chapter is to present two Danish research projects; the Søndermark School and TEACHOUT studies. It highlights the impact and potentials of physical activity (PA) in primary school based on results from pupils (grade 3–6 grade—year 9–12), taught weekly outside the classroom and school buildings. The chapter summarises how teaching in nature, green areas or using cultural institutions like museums, factories, cemeteries etc. has an impact on PA levels. The Søndermark School study in Copenhagen investigated whether udeskole in urban nature or cultural institutions helps to increase children’s PA in four classes. 44 girls and 40 boys (grade 4–6) participated in this study, where the PA was measured for seven consecutive days. For all 84 pupils, the average PA was significantly higher on udeskole days compared to traditional school days without PE lessons. The average PA levels among boys were significantly higher than among girls in all mentioned settings, except on days with PE lessons, where both sexes’ PA levels were equal. As part of the TEACHOUT research project, PA of 663 children was measured 24 h a day for 9–10 consecutive days. Udeskole classes were compared with control classes, i.e. their parallel classes, from 12 schools located in different parts of Denmark, in a quasi-experimental design. A gender comparison was made on a weekly basis, i.e. days with more than 150 min of udeskole were compared with traditional school days and days with physical education (PE) classes. Measured over a whole week, boys having udeskole were more physically active than boys in control classes and girls in both settings. No difference was found between girls in udeskole and the comparison classes during a week, but girls on udeskole days were associated with a greater proportion of PA at light intensity than on traditional school days and days with PE lessons. In general, the children were far less sedentary during udeskole compared to traditional classroom teaching.

AbstractObjective: Surgical revascularization for moyamoya disease (MMD) prevents cerebral ischemic attack by improving cerebral blood flow (CBF) and could also reduce the risk of re-bleeding in hemorrhagic-onset patients. We sought to clarify the cerebral hemodynamic changes in the acute stage after revascularization surgery for adult MMD.Materials and methods: The present study includes 54 consecutive adult patients with MMD (21–76 years old, 43.1 average), undergoing superficial temporal artery-middle cerebral artery anastomosis with indirect pial synangiosis on 65 affected hemispheres. We prospectively performed single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) at postoperative day (POD) 1 and 7 of 65 surgeries. Perioperative management was conducted with strict blood pressure control (100–130 mmHg) and minocycline hydrochloride administration.Results: The outcome of 65 surgeries was favorable except for one (1.5%), which manifested as delayed intracerebral hemorrhage due to local hyperperfusion. The postoperative SPECT revealed the characteristic CBF improvement pattern with transient local hyperperfusion (POD1) and subsequent distribution of CBF in wider vascular territory (POD7) on 37 hemispheres (56.9%, 37/65).Conclusion: The revascularization surgery is a safe and effective treatment for adult MMD, while transient local hyperperfusion should be strictly managed by intensive perioperative care.

In the sport psychology, the theories of motivation, such as the McClelland's need achievement theory and the Nicholls' achievement goal theory, play an important role in the team sports in motivating and encouraging team members. The practical implementation of these theories relies on detecting the variables that significantly affect the probability of winning so as to identify the key elements for the team motivation, the role assignment, and the decision-making process. As the relevant variables change in accordance with the type of sport, in this contribution we focus on the basketball. In detail, we consider the traditional box score of the U.S. National Basket Association (NBA) regular season games played in the seasons 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2020-21. Each season comprises of 82 games played by each of the 30 teams, which cumulates to 4920 games. Hence, data have a multilevel structure, with multiple observations for each team. To properly address the data structure, the probability of winning is modelled through a random-intercept logit model, where teams are the upper-level units and games are the lower-level units. Among the independent variables, we take into account several possible determinants of winning, such as number of assists, number of offensive rebounds, number of defensive rebounds, number of turnovers, number of stolen balls, percentage of free throws made, number of fouls made. Moreover, we devote a special attention to the effect of two more independent variables: the number of key-players that are missing or injured and a dummy if the team plays without a day of rest between consecutive games. The study provides insights in the determinants of success of the basketball games: these results can be used by the team decision makers to assign roles that favor motivation and performance of players and of team as a whole.

Western Himalayas (WH) have experienced a two-fold temperature increase compared to the Indian sub-continent post-2000, strongly linked to global warming with significant implications for precipitation patterns. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we examine seasonal precipitation changes in the WH between recent (2001–2020) and past decades (1961–2000). Mean summer precipitation has increased over foothills but declined at higher elevations, while winter precipitation has increased region-wide except in certain parts of Jammu-Kashmir (JK), Uttarakhand (UK), and Punjab. In summer, light precipitation has increased in JK, while moderate precipitation has decreased over foothills but enhanced at higher altitudes. Moreover, extreme precipitation has significantly increased in the UK and Himachal Pradesh. During winter, light and extreme precipitation has increased, while moderate and heavy precipitation declined. Maximum one and five-day precipitation extremes (Rx1day, Rx5day) have increased in the foothills with more consecutive wet days. Winter extremes have increased in the northern region, while consecutive dry and wet days have declined, except for specific areas in eastern Ladakh and JK. Furthermore, rising sea surface temperatures, enhanced moisture transport, increased precipitable water and cloud cover in WH are associated with increasing mean and extreme precipitation, emphasizing the impacts of global warming on temperature and precipitation transitions in the region.

Thailand is located between 5°30' and 20°30'N latitudes and between 97°30' and 105°30'E longitudes. Geographically, the country can be divided into northern, northeastern, central, and southern regions. Most of the country experiences distinct wet and dry climates, except some parts of the southern region, which experience a wet and humid climate. Of the country’s total area (514,000 km2), 41% is under agricultural use (Office of Agricultural Economics, 1999) with 92% of it being rainfed. Drought normally occurs during the hot season (March–April) and sometimes during dry season (November–April) due to inadequate rains. In recent times, the occurrence of drought has increased in Thailand, threatening sustainability of agricultural production. According to Department of Local Administration (1998), droughts of varying intensity occur in 67 out of 76 provinces of Thailand almost every year. During the period from 1987 to 1997, drought impacted a total of 5.44 million ha of agricultural land, causing $1.4 billion in losses. Droughts of varying intensity or severity occur in different regions of Thailand. A drought is categorized as severe, moderate, slight, or none drought using a radiative index (RI) determined during the rainy season (May– October). The RI for a region is determined using the number of rainy days, percentage of irrigated area, groundwater availability, topography, land use, soil, drainage density, and watershed size. If RI ranges from 1.0 to 1.2 for 15 consecutive days for a region or area, the region is said to be affected by slight drought. If RI exceeds 1.2 for 30 consecutive days, the region is considered to be affected by moderate drought, and if RI exceeds 1.0 for more than 30 consecutive days, severe drought is said to have occurred in the region. Using these criteria, the percentage of area affected by different drought categories has been determined in Thailand. It can be observed from table 25.1 that the northeastern region is the most droughtprone in Thailand. A drought index, D, is also used to monitor drought conditions in Thailand.

Terra firme forests are those that by definition are not permanently or seasonally flooded (terra firme meaning “firm terrain”). This type of forest encompasses the Amazon and Orinoco basins, stretching from the lower slopes of the Andes, east to the Guianas, and south to about 15°S in western Brazil and northern Bolivia (Richards 1996). Structural and compositional variability in these forests in the Amazon basin is very wide as a result of climate differences and geomorphological position. The region is not climatically uniform; the central and much of the southern parts have less and more seasonal rainfall than the eastern and western parts (Walsh 1996). These differences have direct and indirect ecological significance, as phenology and biological processes related to nutrient availability will be strongly influenced by both factors (Cuevas and Medina 1986, 1988, 1990, Medina and Cuevas 1989). Periods of two or more consecutive dry days are ecologically significant in a humid area such as San Carlos de Río Negro, in the northern part of the Amazon, because of low water retention capacity in the widespread sandy soils. In lower geomorphological positions, dry spells of 5-10 days may result in fluctuations of the water table from 0.4-1.0 m (Herrera 1977, Bongers et al. 1985). In areas with a more strongly seasonal climate, roots have been found extending to 18 m depth (Nepstad et al. 1995). This may explain the presence of evergreen forest in the seasonally dry eastern Amazon. Structure and physiognomy of terra firme forests is very similar throughout Amazonia, but floristically it is quite variable due to different compositions in the subbasins of the Amazon’s major tributaries. These subbasins are located within geochemical regions that can be differentiated based on the physicochemical properties of drainage waters (Sioli 1975, Fittkau 1971, Fittkau et al. 1975). Blackwater rivers, such as the Río Negro, drain mostly sandy podsolized soils low in most essential nutrients for plant growth. They are characterized by a high content of humic acids, which remain dissolved because of the predominant low concentrations of polyvalent cations, mainly Ca2+ and Mg2+.

Abstract In a study of the natural history of schizophrenia, first-episode patients had disease symptoms recorded monthly for up to 10 years following initial hospitalization (Thara et al., 1994). In studies of the health effects of air pollution, asthmatic children recorded the presence or absence of wheezing each day for approximately 60 days (Yu et al., 2000). To determine whether maternal employment correlates with paediatric care utilization and both maternal stress and childhood illness, daily measurements of maternal stress (yes, no) and childhood illness (yes, no) were recorded for 28 consecutive days (Alexander and Markowitz, 1986). Lunn, et al. (2001) analyse ordinal allergic severity scores collected daily for 3 months on subjects assigned either to placebo or to one of three doses of active drug.

Abstract This paper presents results on the electrochemical behavior of reinforcing steel bar (commonly called rebar) embedded in concrete fabricated with natural additions such as dehydrated nopal (prickly pear) and aloe vera. Ten concrete prisms reinforced with two #3 rebars were exposed to wet-dry cycles for 60 days. Two concrete specimens without such additions served as controls. Two identical concrete specimens were fabricated with both 1% and 2% nopal and aloe vera as cement replacements. Four were the stages evaluated: curing, first stabilization, three consecutive wet-dry cycles, and second stabilization. Half cell potentials and Linear Polarization Resistance (LPR) measurements were performed during the four stages. Electrochemical data indicated that the concrete mixture prepared with both nopal and aloe vera, increased the concrete resistivity and the steel resistance against corrosion. The preliminary findings suggest that adding nopal or aloe vera in such concentrations might be suitable for durability enhancing applications in concrete structures.

The main goal of the analysis presented in the paper is to contribute to a clearer understanding of climate changes in Bulgaria, assessing the long-term changes in annual characteristics of surface temperature and precipitation in the period 1961-2020 and providing climate projections to the end of the 21st century. During the last decades of the 20th century, a tendency towards warming occurred in Bulgaria. Since the 1990s, only four years have had negative temperature anomalies compared to the reference period 1961-1990. Changes in the precipitation regime are also apparent, with increasing frequency of days with both torrential rainfall and dry, hot weather. The analysis of future climate is focused on the projected changes under the four RCP climate change scenarios for selected ETCCDI climate indices, computed on a yearly basis: absolute maximum temperature (TXx), absolute minimum temperature (TNn), the maximum number of consecutive frost days (CFD), the maximum number of consecutive summer days (CSU), precipitation sum (RR), number of heavy precipitation days (RR10mm) and maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD). The projected significant warming is manifested in the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of all considered temperature indicators. Despite the predicted decreasing precipitation trend, especially in Southeast Bulgaria, the changes are statistically significant only for scenario RCP8.5.

The shift method of labor organization is widely used in various industries [1], one of which is the exploration and production of oil and gas. Scientific studies have covered in detail the adverse impact of the Far North and the Arctic conditions on the professional health of shift personnel, taking into account the polar stress syndrome [2-11]. At the same time, in the southern regions of the country the climate is characterized by pronounced continentality, characterized by dry and very hot summers, cold winters with strong winds and snowstorms [12]. These features certainly have an adverse impact on workers engaged in oil and gas exploration and production, due to the fact that their activities are carried out primarily in the open air [13]. Drilling wells involves intense muscular activity of workers and includes the performance of complex, varied and repetitive technological operations [13]. The most intense work includes hoisting and hoisting operations, in which all team members participate [13]. In this case, as a rule, the following work and rest regimes for shift personnel are applied: 15-day working periods, alternating 12-hour day and night shifts and equal rest periods (12*12 hours, 15+15 days), in other words, employees work first 15 days on day shifts, and then 15 days on night shifts, and vice versa [14]. Similar work-rest patterns are most common in Norwegian offshore oil and gas production: fixed shifts of 14 consecutive day shifts (14D) or 14 consecutive night shifts (14N), alternating in different stints, or patterns including one week of night shifts (usually first) and one week of working day shifts during the same working period (7 N/7 D) [15]. Studies by both domestic and foreign authors are devoted to the analysis of changes in the functional states of workers during the shift period [8-11]. In the work of A.M. Urazaeva and co-authors established a tendency for pre-work indicators of the speed of sensorimotor reactions to deteriorate during a 15-day night shift, and to improve when working during the daytime [14]. Foreign studies also emphasized that night shift work is more likely to contribute to sleep problems [16, 17]. At the same time, a number of authors noted better sleep quality among offshore platform personnel when working night shifts [18, 19]. A study by S. Waage et al found that there were no significant differences in sleep quality between day and night shift workers at the beginning and end of the shift period. [20]. Longitudinal study of S.A. Ferguson et al showed that pre-sleep fatigue among mining personnel was higher when working night shifts compared to day shifts, but sleep recovery was greater during night shifts than during day shifts [21]. The analysis of the research revealed inconsistency in knowledge regarding the impact of day and night shifts on shift workers in the oil and gas industry, as well as insufficient information regarding the dynamics of the functional states of workers with different shift schedules.

Height loss during the day is attributed to gravitational loading of intervertebral discs. Previous research demonstrated treadmill running could maximize magnitude of vertical spinal creep (VSC) response. To date, previous studies have not yet investigated time of day when performing treadmill running has effects on VSC response. The aim of the study was to determine the effect of diurnal variation on VSC response after treadmill running. Sixty healthy subjects were recruited. Subjects were randomly assigned into either treadmill running or control groups. Each subject was asked to visit the lab on three consecutive days. The first day included familiarization sessions. The subsequent two consecutive days was to perform treadmill running or normal daily activity. Each subject was measured VSC responses using height loss stadiometer. For the intervention group, subjects were asked to perform treadmill running. For the control group, subjects were asked to continue normal daily activities during the experimental trials. Subjects were measured VSC responses after the completion of test trials. Paired t-test revealed significant increases in VSC responses in the treadmill running group for morning (p = 0.007) and afternoon sessions (p = 0.023). However, the time of day had no significantly effects on magnitude of VSC responses.

Parasitic diseases cause significant damage to livestock affecting the productivity and&#x0D; clinical condition of sheep and goats. The purpose of our research was to provide a&#x0D; comprehensive diagnosis of endoparasites in ruminants kept on a private livestock&#x0D; farm in the Moscow Region, and to develop and propose a scheme of therapeutic&#x0D; and preventive measures. Fifty five fecal samples were studied: 19 samples from cows&#x0D; (4 from calves, 15 from adults), 24 from goats (10 from goatlings, 14 from adults), 12&#x0D; from sheep (all age groups were kept together). Fecal samples were taken individually&#x0D; from the cows and goats, and by a group method from the sheep. The samples were&#x0D; examined on the sampling day by the flotation method. The therapy was carried&#x0D; out on a group of goatlings with intense Eimeria spp. infection using toltrazuril at&#x0D; a dose of 15 mg/kg once daily for 3 consecutive days. The adult sheep and goats&#x0D; were given a combined preparation with praziquantel 15 mg and ivermectin 3 mg&#x0D; per 10 kg of animal weight, as a single dose. Fourteen days after helminth therapy,&#x0D; toltrazuril was prescribed at a dose of 15 mg/kg once a day for 2 consecutive days.&#x0D; Toltrazuril was administered individually, and the anthelmintic was chosen in the&#x0D; form of a suspension - it was given to the goats individually, and to the sheep by a&#x0D; group method in food. Fecal samples from the goatlings were examined on day 7&#x0D; after the anticoccidial drug, and fecal samples from the adult animals were examined&#x0D; on day 14 after the anthelmintic therapy and on day 7 after the anticoccidial drug.

Background: Primary progressive aphasia (PPA) is caused by selective neurodegeneration of the specific language areas in the brain. Until recently, this area had been dominated by impairment-focused interventions, more specifically, word-retrieval therapies. The compensatory-based approach targets everyday use of conversation between a people with PPA (pwPPA) and the family member or carer, and is underpinned by an assessment of those strategies which facilitate communication and those that act as a barrier. Objective: To analyze the feasibility of an intensive SLT program for pwPPA. Methods: Three patients with PPA (1 with PPA-S, 1 PPA-NF and 1 PPA-L) received the treatment (2 by face-to-face format and one by videoconference/telerehabilitation). The program comprised an initial evaluation of 2 hours (day 1), five 1-hour treatment sessions on consecutive days (days 2 to 6), followed by a post-treatment evaluation (day 7) to determine the results of the intensive therapy. Results: The treatment provided a greater load of cognitive-linguistic stimuli, which promoted some gains in speech intelligibility, functional communication improving general desire to engage in communicative exchanges relative to baseline. Conclusions: The intensive program was feasible and that some gains in functional communication can be made after five consecutive sessions in the same week.

We have earlier demonstrated considerable increase of the in vivo formation of thromboxane (Tx) in connection with myocardial infarction (AMI). The in vivo formation of prostacyklin (PGI) was also increased, in some cases very much so, with a maximum after the CK peak. In normals ASA reduces the in vivo Tx synthesis to about 15% for several days while the PGI synthesis is only inhibited for 2-3 hrs. The in vivo synthesis of those prostanoids was measured by gas chromatographic mass spectrometric quantitation of the major urinary metabolites. In a serie of twenty patients with AMI we measured the in vivo synthesis of Tx and PGI during seven consecutive days. Ten patients received 0.5 g ASA every third day. In the nontreated group the Tx synthesis slowly decreased to about 70%, in the treated group to about 25% on day 3 as compared to the synthesis at admission. There was no difference in the in vivo synthesis of PGI between the two groups.These data demonstrate that in most individuals with AMI it is possible to inhibit Tx synthesis considerably with intermittent dosages of 0.5g ASA while the PGI synthesis is essentially maintained intact. Therefore this regimen should be more beneficial to the patient than daily doses of any magnitude.

Physically disabled community in Sri Lanka is not receiving sufficient attention with reference to the conduciveness of their living environments. The patients who are harrowed with mobility impairments should be supported to overcome challenges which hinder the smooth functioning of day today physical activities while maintaining their psychological health by incorporating disabled-friendly, optimum healing design interventions. In view of this, an attempt was made to determine the impact of interior colours to reduce depression, anxiety and stress levels of disabled individuals. The investigation was executed with reference to wall colour of patient’s (n=15) bedrooms of a selected rehabilitation centre, at Ragama. The impact of three selected hues (blue, yellow and green) were tested by installing colour panels on the sidewall of the beds, allowing the participants to be exposed to each colour for three consecutive days. Depression, anxiety and stress levels of participants were measured using DASS-21. Impact of green colour was found to be more favourable to reduce depression, anxiety and stress levels of participants over blue and yellow. It is recommended to extend this study further to test different hues, shades and intensities of green colour with long-term exposure, to enhance psychological health and well-being of disabled patients in health care facilities.

Despite the many differences among Caribbean nations, Climate Change (CC) poses a serious threat to them all. Average temperatures in the Region have increased by 0.1° to 0.2°C per decade over the past three decades and rainfall patterns have shifted, with the number of consecutive dry days expected to increase. Additionally, sea level rise has occurred at a rate of about two to four cm per decade over the past 33 years, a trend which presents risks to the Region's freshwater resources and to its largely coastal population dependent on tourism and agriculture.OVE's regional study aims to assess the IDB's role in responding to CC in the Caribbean over the period 2004-2013.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days. We use a panel regression framework at the sub-national (i.e., region) level to identify the effect of extreme heat on economic growth in Latin America accounting for acclimation to the season and to the local climate. Extreme heat has a negative and significant impact on economic growth, and the magnitude of the impact is increasing in the intensity and duration of heat. Our results suggest that the impact of each additional consecutive day of extreme heat is greater than the impact of the prior day. Extreme heat affects economic growth directly in addition to its indirect effect through higher seasonal mean temperatures and extreme heat could account for 34-68% of the total projected reduction in the annual economic growth rate at midcentury due to temperature change. Our results suggest that extreme heat is one potential channel for the documented non-linearity in the impacts of rising mean temperature.

Purpose: The Southern Colorado Plateau Network (SCPN) used satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data over a 20-year period (2003–2022) to examine trends and patterns of variability in 12 grassland and shrubland study areas within SCPN park units. Methods: SCPN developed daily NDVI records for each study area, from which analyses and visualizations were derived. Raster graphs were created to facilitate data interpretation. Trends were calculated for each ranked day of the spring and monsoon seasons: For each study area, season, and year, each day was ranked from the highest NDVI value to the lowest. Total NDVI change was then estimated for the spring and monsoon season NDVI peaks (day-rank = 1) as well as all other non-peak day ranks for each season. The same analyses were also applied to subsets of pixels corresponding to more productive and less productive pixels within each study area. Results: The study areas had many “likely” trends in NDVI for ranked-daily values, with a smaller number of “very likely” and “highly likely” trends. Monsoon season trends were consistently negative or neutral for more northerly parks—Aztec Ruins National Monument (NM), Chaco Culture National Historical Park (NHP), and Glen Canyon National Recreation Area (NRA); and consistently positive or neutral for more southerly parks—Petrified Forest National Park (NP), Petroglyph NM, and Wupatki NM. Spring season trends varied spatially and included both positive and negative trends. Aztec Ruins NM and Glen Canyon NRA exhibited consistently negative or neutral trends for both seasons. Raster graphs revealed patterns including the variability in timing and intensity of seasonal greenness peaks and multi-year patterns. The raster graphs and associated data release can be used to evaluate the potential for the phenological patterns to correlate with on-the-ground conditions for wildlife resources that depend on vegetation. These data may also be used to parameterize models that relate climate to vegetation condition. Multi-year consecutive seasons of below-average NDVI were found in some records: At Wupatki NM, low NDVI from spring 2017 to spring 2021 corresponded in time with a widespread juniper dieback in 2021 in the adjacent pinyon-juniper woodlands of the area. Consecutive seasons of low NDVI also occurred in Petroglyph NM from 2008 to 2013 and at Aztec Ruins NM from 2020 to 2022. These records show the potential to link plant community stress to disturbance response thresholds, which is a subject of ongoing SCPN research.

Objectives The original project had 2 major objectives: (1) To determine the effects of centrally administered leptin antagonist on appetite and adaptive metabolism in the sheep; (2) To develop and prepare second-generation leptin antagonists combining high binding affinity and prolonged in vivo half-life. Background Periods of suboptimal nutrition or exaggerated metabolic activity demands lead to a state of chronic energy insufficiency. Ruminants remain productive for a surprisingly long period of time under these circumstances by evoking adaptations sparing available energy and nutrients. The mechanism driving these adaptations in ruminant remains unknown, but could involve a reduction in plasma leptin, a hormone acting predominantly in the brain. In laboratory animals, reduced leptin signaling promotes survival during nutritional insufficiency by triggering energy sparing adaptations such as reduced thyroid hormone production and insulin resistance. Our overall hypothesis is that similar adaptations are triggered by reduced leptin signaling in the brain of ruminants. Testing of this hypothesis in ruminants has not been possible due to inability to block the actions of endogenous leptin and access to ruminant models where leptin antagonistic therapy is feasible and effective. Major achievements and conclusions The Israeli team had previously mutated 3 residues in ovine leptin, with no effect on receptor binding. This mutant was renamed ovine leptin antagonist (OLA) because it cannot activate signaling and therefore antagonizes the ability of wild type leptin to activate its receptor. To transform OLA into an effective in vivo antagonist, the Israeli made 2 important technical advances. First, it incorporated an additional mutation into OLA, increasing its binding affinity and thus transforming it into a super ovine leptin antagonist (SOLA). Second, the Israeli team developed a method whereby polyethylene glycol is covalently attached to SOLA (PEG-SOLA) with the goal of extending its half-life in vivo. The US team used OLA and PEG-SOLA in 2 separate animal models. First, OLA was chronically administered directly into the brain of mature sheep via a cannula implanted into the 3rdcerebroventricule. Unexpectedly, OLA had no effect of voluntary feed intake or various indicators of peripheral insulin action but reduced the plasma concentration of thyroid hormones. Second, the US team tested the effect of peripheral PEG-SOLA administration in an energy sensitive, rapidly growing lamb model. PEG-SOLA was administered for 14 consecutive days after birth or for 5 consecutive days before sacrifice on day 40 of life. Plasma PEG-SOLA had a half-life of over 16 h and circulated in 225- to 288-fold excess over endogenous leptin. PEG-SOLA administration reduced plasma thyroid hormones and resulted in a higher fat content in the carcass at slaughter, but had no effects on feed intake, body weight, plasma glucose or insulin. These results show that the team succeeded in developing a leptin antagonist with a long in vivo half-life. Moreover, in vivo results show that reduced leptin signaling promotes energy sparing in ruminants by repressing thyroid hormone production. Scientific and agricultural implications The physiological role of leptin in ruminants has been difficult to resolve because peripheral administration of wild type leptin causes little effects. Our work with leptin antagonists show for the first time in ruminants that reduced leptin signaling induces energy sparing mechanisms involving thyroid hormone production with little effect on peripheral insulin action. Additional work is needed to develop even more potent leptin antagonists, to establish optimal administration protocols and to narrow down phases of the ruminant life cycle when their use will improve productivity.

Pueraria mirifica airy shaw and suvatabandhu, know locally as Kwao Keur, is a plant in family Leguminosae. In this study, effects of P.mirifica on hepatic cytochrome P450 (CYP), serum lipid profile and subchronic toxicity were investigated in male Wistar rats. Rats were randomly divided into four treatment groups as following: normal diet-fed group; normal diet-fed supplemented with P.mirifica group; high cholesterol diet-fed group; high cholesterol diet-fed supplemented with P.mirifica group. Each group comprised 10 rats. P.mirifica was administered orally at a dosage of 100 mg/kg/day for 90 consecutive days. At the end of the treatment, animals were anesthesized. Blood samples were collected by heart puncture and serum sample were prepared for determination of hematology and clinical blood chemistry, respectively. Microsomes were prepared from livers for enzyme assays. The results showed that body weight of rats given P.mirifica in either normal diet or high cholesterol diet conditions were significantly lower than their corresponding control groups. There was no significant difference of these following hematology and clinical blood chemistry: hemoglobin, hemotocrit, WBC count, %differential WBC, platelet count, RBC morphology, glucose, BUN, SCr, total bilirubin, and direct bilirubin in all experimental groups. P.mirifica did not affect serum level of AST, ALT, and ALP in normal diet-fed condition. High cholesterol diet-fed condition caused a significant increase of AST, ALT, and ALP but P.mirifica attenuated these effects. P.mirifica significantly decreased serum total cholesterol and LDL-C in either normal diet-fed or high cholesterol diet-fed rats. Serum triglyceride was increased in normal diet-fed rats but decreased in high cholesterol diet-fed rats. P.mirifica caused a significant decrease of HDL-C in both normal and high cholesterol diet-fed rats whereas its improvement in the LDL-C/HDL-C ratio was shown only in high cholesterol diet-fed rats. Concerning the effects on CYPs, P.mirifica significantly inhibited CYP2B1&amp;B2 in either normal diet or high cholesterol diet-fed rats. Its inhibitory effect of CYP1A2 and CYP2E1 was found only in normal diet-fed rats. No effect of P.mirifica was found on CYP1A1 and CYP3A. Inhibitory effects of P.mirifica on CYP2B1&amp;2B2 and CYP2E1 were also found in the in vitro study. Although, P.mirifica demonstrated a benefit on lipid profile and did not show any toxic effects on liver, kidney, and blood system in this study, an increment of serum triglyceride in normal rat receiving P.mirifica, howerer, is not favorable. Inhibitory effects of P.mirifica on CYP1A2, CYP2B1&amp;2B2 and CYP2E1 indicated a beneficial potential of this plant regarding the chemical-induced carcinogenesis as well as a possible potential of this plant regarding drug-drug interaction with other medicines that are metabolized by these CYPs. Effects of P.mirifica at various doses, long term used as well as mechanism of effects should be further investigated. Effects of P.mirifica on other isoforms of CYP in human should also be explored.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.