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Ramsay, Susan. "The process and consequences of population ageing in Cuba." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.528260.
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Carr, Dawn C. "DEMOGRAPHY, IDEOLOGY, AND STRATIFICATION: EXPLORING THE EMERGENCE AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE THIRD AGE." Oxford, Ohio : Miami University, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=miami1239036755.
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Cséfalvaiová, Kornélia. "Spoločnosť a seniori." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-142089.
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The European Commission has declared 2012 The European year for active aging and solidarity between generations. This issue calls each society to analyze the process of population aging and it's social and economic consequences. Currently active aging can be the key to solve the demographic trends, because Europe is the continent with the slowest population growth. The present study follows the issue of seniors from a demographic and socio-economic point of view, as well as social attitudes towards seniors. Process of demographic aging in the Czech Republic is characterized by using literature and statistical sources, as well as the position of society to activity of the post-productive population in the labor market, to health, social security and pension, as well as the relationship within the family and society. Attention is given to life satisfaction and quality of life of older people. The submitted diploma thesis has a theoretical-empirical nature. The theoretical part consists of five chapters. The first chapter defines the basic concepts associated with the process of aging. The following chapters are dealing with life satisfaction and quality of life of older people, as well as with social and intergenerational relationships in the family and in society as a whole. The socio-economic impact of demographic aging on society and the measures needed to deal with the unfavorable consequences are also presented. The thesis also includes a questionnaire and evaluation of life satisfaction and quality of life of seniors, addressed to two groups of people at retirement age. The aim of work is reflecting the period of old age and life satisfaction of the elderly. Another aim of this thesis is to characterize the evolution of aging in the Czech Republic, highlighting its likely future development. The results are dedicated for those who seek to understand this issue of the elderly in our society.
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Vaniš, Jakub. "Přirozený pohyb obyvatelstva v EU a jeho důsledky." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-192574.
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This diploma thesis focuses on the analysis of demographic indicators and their development for the member states of the current European Union. The work is thematically divided into four chapters. The first chapter is mostly theoretically defined, for the purpose of explanation of all basic concepts. The second chapter shows us where Europe currently stands in terms of demographics. The third chapter is focused on defining the consequences of natural movement. The last chapter offers an analysis of a survey, in which total of 453 respondents from ten countries from allover Europe have participaded. There is no doubt, that the aging of population will have extensive social and economic soconsequences for Europe. On the other hand, we musn't forget that it is also an indicator of social and economic development, and therefore we should not be limited to perceive it only in a negative way.
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Prenzel, Paula. "Regional consequences of demographic change : regional development and disparities in a context of ageing and shrinking population in Germany." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2017. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3705/.
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Demographic change represents the defining trend in population development of the 21st century on a global, national, and regional level. Although some countries are yet to see its impacts, others, such as Germany, have already begun experiencing the effects of demographic change. Sub-replacement level fertility since the 1970s coupled with increases in life expectancy have slowed German population growth and cause pronounced shifts in the age composition. These changes are even more noticeable on a sub-national level, where, in the context of national-level demographic change, shrinking and ageing regions are no longer transitory and exceptional but a wide-spread and permanent phenomenon. Despite the relative predictability of these trends, there is little empirical research on the consequences of demographic change on regional socio-economic conditions. This thesis analyses demographic change using the case of Germany on a regional level and considers how changes in population size and age composition affect economic outcomes and their geographical patterns. It focuses on three aspects that are central to processes of regional economic development. First, it investigates the role of demographic change in the provision of public services, using the example of primary school closures in response to falling student numbers. Second, it studies the effect of population ageing on availability and composition of human capital in regional labour markets. Third, it examines the relationship between regional age structures and patterns of internal migration, testing for evidence whether the two trends may be mutually reinforcing. Using administrative and micro-data for 332 German district regions between 1996 and 2010, this thesis documents the current relevance of demographic change for socioeconomic conditions and emphasises its future role in shaping regional economic development in ageing and shrinking countries.
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Kreitsch, Thomas. "Nachwuchsschwäche und Nachwuchssicherung in Deutschland : Staat in der Verantwortung für eine aktive Bevölkerungspolitik? ; Ein Handbuch zur Bevölkerungspolitik." Universität Potsdam, 2011. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2011/4931/.
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Die Ursache der Nachwuchsschwäche ist der Geburtenrückgang. Quantitative demografische Determinanten sind auf ideelle Merkmalsausprägungen der Bevölkerung und strukturelle Eigenschaften der Gesellschaft zurückzuführen.
Die niedrige Fertilität führt als einflussreiche Kenngröße zu einem Bevölkerungsrückgang und zu altersstrukturellen Veränderungen in der Zusammensetzung der Bevölkerung, die mit weitreichenden und umfassenden gesellschaftlichen Konsequenzen einhergehen. Indem die Konsequenzen künftig insbesondere auf junge Generationen zurückwirken werden und somit zugleich die Ursachen der niedrigen Geburtenrate verstärken, entfaltet die demografische Entwicklung eine Eigendynamik.
Maßnahmen zur Nachwuchssicherung treffen jedoch auf ungünstige Handlungsvoraussetzungen. Monetäre und materielle Fertilitätsanreize sind von unterschiedlicher demografischer Wirksamkeit und haben an Bedeutung verloren. Gesellschaft und Staat haben den Fokus von einer reaktionären Symptomkurierung, die eine passive Gestaltung der Konsequenzen verfolgt, auf eine aktive Ursachenbekämpfung zu richten. Es zeigt sich, dass auf der nationalen Ebene die größten Handlungspotentiale erschlossen werden können.The reason for insufficient offspring is a decline in the birth rate. Quantitative demographic determinants can be explained by ideal characteristic values of population as well as structural properties of society. The low fertility as an influential parameter causes not only a decline in population but also age-structural changes in the composition of population, which come along with extensive social consequences. As consequences will retroact especially on young generations and therefore increasing the reasons for a low birth rate, the demographic trend unfolds its own momentum. However, measures to secure sufficient offspring encounter unfavourable conditions for action. Monetary and material incentives of fertility are of different demographic effectiveness and have lost importance. Instead of pursuing a passive arrangement of the consequences of demographic change by unprogressively treating the symptoms, society and state have to focus on fighting the causes of the decline in the birth rate actively. It turns out that the largest potential for actions can be developed at the national level.
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Peng, Zhun. "Population aging and asset prices." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015SACLE009/document.
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La démographie des économies développées révèle un vieillissement rapide de leur population et ce processus s'est amorcé dans les pays émergents. Le vieillissement démographique est dû à trois phénomènes : le report de l'âge du premier enfant, la baisse de la fécondité et la hausse de l'espérance de vie. Ce phénomène entraîne des conséquences économiques importantes, notamment à travers l'élévation du ratio de dépendance défini comme le nombre des retraités rapporté à la population en âge de travailler. Cette thèse s'intéresse aux conséquences du vieillissement démographique sur le prix du capital ainsi qu'au financement des retraites face à la crise financière. Dans un premier chapitre, nous étudions l'effet de la dynamique de la structure démographique sur le prix du capital dans un modèle à générations imbriquées avec coût d'ajustement du capital. Les conclusions indiquent que le prix des actifs augmente puis diminue en fonction de l'évolution de la structure démographique. Le deuxième chapitre porte sur la performance d'un portefeuille de grande taille lors de tensions sur les marchés financiers. Grâce à la théorie des copules, nous développons une méthodologie qui permet d'analyser l'exposition d'un portefeuille aux différents risques de marché extrêmes. Le troisième chapitre aborde l'analyse de la sensibilité de la situation financière des fonds de pension aux risques de marché, en utilisant la méthodologie élaborée dans le chapitre précédent. Nous constatons que l'actif et le passif du bilan d'un fonds de pension sont vulnérables aux mouvements volatils des marchés financiersPopulation of advanced economies is rapidly aging while emerging countries follow closely the same transformation. Population aging is due to three factors: delayed child-bearing, falling birth rates, and rising life expectancy. This process causes significant economic consequences, especially due to the rise in the dependency ratio that is defined as the number of retirees divided by the working age population. This thesis is particularly interested in the consequences of population aging on the price of capital as well as the pension funding under current financial crisis. In the first chapter, we study the effect of the dynamics of population structure on the price of capital in an overlapping generations model with capital adjustment costs. The results show that the asset prices increase and then decrease with changes in the demographic structure. The second chapter focuses on the performance of a large portfolio during turbulent periods in financial markets. Using the copula theory, we develop a methodology for analyzing the exposure of a portfolio to different extreme market risks. The third chapter covers the analysis of the sensitivity of the funding situation of a representative pension fund to market risks, by using the methodology developed in the second chapter. We find that both the asset and liability sides of pension fund's balance sheets are vulnerable to volatile movements in financial markets
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Wennersten, Lena. "Population-level consequences of variation." Doctoral thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för naturvetenskap, NV, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-32522.
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Consequences of within population variation have recently attracted an increased interest in evolutionary ecology research. Theoretical models suggest important population-level consequences, but many of these predictions still remain to be tested. These issues are important for a deepened understanding of population performances and persistence, especially in a world characterized by rapid fragmentation of natural habitats and other environmental changes. I review theoretical models of consequences from intra population genetic and phenotypic variation. I find that more variable populations are predicted to be characterized by broader resource use, reduced intraspecific competition, reduced vulnerability to environmental changes, more stable population dynamics, higher invasive potential, enhanced colonization and establishment success, larger distribution ranges, higher evolvability, higher productivity, faster population growth rate, decreased extinction risk, and higher speciation rate, compared with less variable populations. To test some of these predictions I performed experiments and compared how different degree of colour polymorphism influences predation risk and establishment success in small groups. My comparisons of predation risk in mono- and polymorphic artificial prey populations showed that the risk of being eaten by birds does not only depend on the coloration of the individual prey item itself, but also on the coloration of the other members of the group. Two experiments on establishment success in small founder groups of Tetrix subulata pygmy grasshoppers with different degree of colour morph diversity show that establishment success increases with higher degree of diversity, both under controlled conditions in outdoor enclosures and in the wild. These findings may be important for re-stocking of declining populations or re-introductions of locally extinct populations in conservation biology projects. I report on remarkably rapid evolutionary shifts in colour morph frequencies in response to the changed environmental conditions in replicated natural populations of pygmy grasshoppers in fire ravaged areas. This finding 1 illustrates the high adaptive potential in a polymorphic species, and indicates the importance of preserved within-species diversity for evolutionary rescue. Finally, I review if theoretical predictions are supported by other published empirical tests and find strong support for the predictions that more variable groups benefit from reduced vulnerability to environmental changes, reduced population fluctuations and extinction risk, larger distribution ranges, and higher colonization or establishment success. In conclusion, my thesis illustrates how within-population variation influences ecological and evolutionary performances of populations both in the short and long term. As such, it emphasizes the need for conservation of biodiversity also within populations.
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Nikpoor, Somaieh. "Three Essays on Modeling Aging Population." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/36433.
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Chapter 1: Interregional Transfers through Public Pension in Canada-
In this chapter, I build a regional computable general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations (OLG) structure of the Canadian economy to analyze population aging dynamics and public pensions. Canada is divided into three regions: Atlantic, Quebec and Rest of Canada (ROC). The impact of population aging is investigated on each of three regions' pension systems. The results confirm that as a result of aging all regions are affected negatively if they choose to have an independent pension system. Under a joint pension system most of the pressure of the provision of the pension system is on the ROC. Atlantic region benefits the most from a joint pension plan as the implicit funds ow from ROC to Atlantic region. Quebec benefits from having its own program, but the benefits disappear slowly in future years.
Chapter 2: Age-Variable Rate of Time Preference in CGE-OLG Model-
Contrary to the mainstream studies in the area of intertemporal optimization that assume a constant rate of time preference over individuals' life cycles, in this chapter I propose a new approach to measure the rate of time preference by assuming that the rate of time preference evolves by age. I construct an overlapping generations model (OLG) and calibrate rate of time preference. The age-variable rate of time preference would permit to capture many other elements that affect the life cycle profile of consumption as observed in the data. The results show that rate of time preference exhibits three phases and is different for young versus old.
Chapter 3: Computing Demographic Change Simulation under Constant
and Age-variable Rate of Time Preference -
This chapter simulates the impact of an aging population on various macroeconomic variables and calculates the cohort welfare as well as social welfare. The outcomes from simulations are dependent on the choice of rate of time preference as well as the structure of the model. The results in this chapter provide a new approach to determining the impact of aging population. The choice of a realistic rate of time preference, which allows its variability by age, affects the cohort welfare noticeably.
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Brown, Robert L. "Economic security for an aging Canadian population." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/nq24297.pdf.
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Harris, GladysMarie W. R. "Exploring Disaster Preparedness for the Aging Population." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/6211.
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Older adults are encountering harsh recovery after disasters, and compounding this problem is the lack of research on older adults' perceptions on disaster preparedness as aging affects the ability to react to emergency situations. To partially address that gap, the purpose of this general qualitative research study was to use Rotter's spectrum of locus of control theory to examine the level of preparation regarding disaster preparation of older adults who were living independently in single-family homes in a state affected by Hurricane Sandy. Data were collected through a qualitative survey distributed to adults aged 65 to 80-years (N=88) and publicly available documents from federal and state emergency management agencies. These data were inductively coded and subjected to a thematic analysis procedure. Findings identified 3 themes that consisted of (a) delayed acceptance, (b) defective instinct, and, (c) unexpected effects of disasters. This study contributes to social change by helping emergency management officials understand the deficiencies in preparedness by an aging population which may in turn improve the quality of life for older adults by stressing proper preparation for sheltering in place or evacuation in the event of a disaster.
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Le, Vavasseur dit Durell Sarah Elizabeth Aubin. "Oystercatcher specialisation : fitness implications and population consequences." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.342650.
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Coats, Rachel. "Fine motor control in a healthy aging population." Thesis, University of Reading, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.515882.
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Berkel, Barbara. "Empirical analyses of financial markets and population aging." [S.l. : s.n.], 2006. http://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/madoc/volltexte/2006/1341/.
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Dowd, Jennifer Beam, Warren Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov. "Measuring the Speed of Aging across Population Subgroups." Public Library of Science, 2014. http://epub.wu.ac.at/5792/1/file.pdf.
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People in different subgroups age at different rates. Surveys containing biomarkers can be used to assess these subgroup differences. We illustrate this using hand-grip strength to produce an easily interpretable, physical-based measure that allows us to compare characteristic-based ages across educational subgroups in the United States. Hand-grip strength has been shown to be a good predictor of future mortality and morbidity, and therefore a useful indicator of population aging. Data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) were used. Two education subgroups were distinguished, those with less than a high school diploma and those with more education. Regressions on hand-grip strength were run for each sex and race using age and education, their interactions and other covariates as independent variables. Ages of identical mean hand-grip strength across education groups were compared for people in the age range 60 to 80. The hand-grip strength of 65 year old white males with less education was the equivalent to that of 69.6 (68.2, 70.9) year old white men with more education, indicating that the more educated men had aged more slowly. This is a constant characteristic age, as defined in the Sanderson and Scherbov article "The characteristics approach to the measurement of population aging" published 2013 in Population and Development Review. Sixty-five year old white females with less education had the same average hand-grip strength as 69.4 (68.2, 70.7) year old white women with more education. African-American women at ages 60 and 65 with more education also aged more slowly than their less educated counterparts. African American men with more education aged at about the same rate as those with less education. This paper expands the toolkit of those interested in population aging by showing how survey data can be used to measure the differential extent of aging across subpopulations.
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Engel, Mary. "The duration of tinnitus in an aging population." PDXScholar, 1990. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/3967.
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The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the perceived severity of chronic tinnitus in a geriatric population increased, decreased, or remained constant with the passage of time. A questionnaire was designed to ascertain the subjects' perceived severity at time of onset and the perceived severity of their current tinnitus. The subjects were asked to rate their past and present tinnitus severity according to how much it bothered them. They were also asked questions pertaining to noise exposure history, hearing aid use, and tinnitus sound parameters for purposes of comparison with other groups previously studied.
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Ridley, Jo. "The population consequences of social complexity in birds." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.399770.
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Ishihara, Junichi. "Exploring Factors Affecting the Aging Prison Population in Japan." Available to subscribers only, 2009. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1968005121&sid=2&Fmt=2&clientId=1509&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Sanderson, Warren C., Sergei Scherbov, and Patrick Gerland. "The end of population aging in high-income countries." Austrian Academy of Sciences, 2018. http://epub.wu.ac.at/6882/1/0xc1aa5576_0x003a4447.pdf.
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Will the population of today's high-income countries continue to age throughout
the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two
methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the
use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life
expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend
on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional
measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65-
year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time,
ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is
preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes
in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of
population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income
countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures
of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century
is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective
measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly
come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of
population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory
phenomenon.
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Emelyanova, A. (Anastasia). "Cross-regional analysis of population aging in the Arctic." Doctoral thesis, Oulun yliopisto, 2015. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789526210049.
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Abstract Despite the greater strategic importance and increasing activities in the Arctic as well as the increased attention paid by national governments, few attempts have been made to understand the on-going demographic changes from a pan-Arctic perspective. In particular, population aging or “silverization” is a demographic megatrend affecting regional societies and the economy which can exert profound social consequences in this most desolate and least populated region in the world. Although there are a few studies investigating aging in the Arctic countries, none have extended their research to the sub-national level. This thesis consists of an analysis of aging and possible rejuvenation trends in 23 Arctic sub-regions, and compares these trends to the national average of their eight respective countries. Two groups of indicators have been used to measure aging; these are based on “chronological” and “prospective” ages, the latter considers changes in life expectancy and improvements in population health. The study generated a large set of aging data for the period 1980/1990 to 2010 as well as the present day, utilizing the available baseline data. The discussion examined major trends in aging elucidating the interactions of conventional and prospective indicators, revealed the oldest and youngest territories, linkages between the Arctic and nationwide rates, the fastest and slowest regions that are aging (or in contrast, rejuvenating), sex and ethnic differences, and whether Northern Canada and Alaska, North Atlantic, Arctic Russia and Northern Fennoscandia are converging or diverging in terms of aging development. In addition, the interplay of causes of aging and other demographic conditions of Arctic territories was examined as well as the gaps in knowledge and prospects for future research. The international comparative evidence of the thesis can help the northern communities’ policy makers in planning changes that have to be made in order to adjust to an aging transition. It is clear that sustainable population development is the key to a viable Arctic regionTiivistelmä Arktisella alueella tapahtuvaa väestörakenteen muutosta ja sen syitä on tutkittu vähän, vaikka alueen merkitys ja aktiviteetit ovat korostuneet valtioiden strategioissa. Erityisesti väestön ikääntyminen tai ”harmaantuminen” on yleinen demografinen suuntaus, joka vaikuttaa pohjoisten alueiden väestöön ja talouteen ja voi johtaa syvällisiin yhteiskunnallisiin seurauksiin tällä maailman harvaan asutuimmalla alueella. Ikääntymistä on tutkittu jonkin verran yksittäisissä maissa, mutta ei näiden maiden pohjoisissa osissa. Tässä väitöskirjatyössä analysoidaan ikääntymistä ja mahdollista nuorentumista kahdeksan arktisen maan 23 pohjoisella alueella ja näitä verrataan saman maan kansalliseen keskiarvoon. Ikääntymisen mittareina on käytetty kahta mittaustapaa perustuen joko ”kronologiseen” tai ”prospektiiviseen” ikään, joista jälkimmäinen huomioi muutokset odotettavissa olevassa eliniässä sekä väestön terveydentilan kohentumissa. Tutkimuksen tuloksena syntyi laaja ikääntymistä käsittelevä tietoaineisto vuosilta 1980/1990 vuoteen 2010/nykypäivään perustuen käytettävissä oleviin lähtöaineistoihin. Tässä työssä yksilöitiin ikääntymisen pääsuuntaukset ja vertailtiin perinteisten ja uusien indikaattoreiden tuottamia tuloksia. Lisäksi selvitettiin ikääntymisen kannalta väestöltään vanhimmat ja nuorimmat alueet, verraltiin arktisen alueen ja kansallisten lukujen välisiä yhteyksiä sekä esiteltiin nopeimmin ja hitaimmin ikääntyvät (tai nuorentuvat) alueet sekä sukupuoleen ja etnisyyteen liittyviä eroja. Tutkimus luo uutta tietoa Pohjois-Kanadan ja Alaskan, Pohjois-Atlantin alueen, Venäjän arktisen alueen sekä pohjoisen Fennoskandian väestöjen ikääntymiskehityksestä. Lisäksi väitöskirjatyö analysoi ikääntymiskehityksen ja muiden väestökehitykseen liittyvien olosuhteiden syitä arktisella alueella sekä tulevaisuuden tutkimustarpeita. Kansainvälinen vertailu voi auttaa valtioiden ja alueiden päättäjiä tekemään suunnitelmat, joilla pohjoiset yhteisöt voivat sopeutua ikääntymisen tuomiin haasteisiin. Kestävä väestökehitys on avain elinvoimaiseen arktiseen alueeseen
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Knight, Kyle Walker. "The ecological implications of population aging a cross-national analysis of the ecological footprint /." Pullman, Wash. : Washington State University, 2008. http://www.dissertations.wsu.edu/Thesis/Fall2008/K_Knight_101608.pdf.
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Thesis (M.A. in sociology)--Washington State University, December 2008.Title from PDF title page (viewed on Dec. 31, 2008). "Department of Sociology." Includes bibliographical references (p. 40-45).
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Fisher, Mary Caperton. "Aging America: Essays on Population Aging and the Physical and Economic Landscapes in the United States." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/39257.
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Major population shifts shape both economic and physical landscapes of nations because demographic and economic drivers are inextricably linked. This study follows a three essay approach focused on the impact of population aging on two broad categories, physical and economic development in the United States. Specifically, this dissertation investigates later life entrepreneurship, elder housing choices and the impact of aging on rural prosperity.
It appears that age is a factor in later life labor force participation choices, with 61 to 70 year olds and those over 70 years of age exhibiting a greater tendency toward self-employment than their 50 to 60 year old counterparts. However, individuals over age 60 are more likely to retire than transition to self-employment. Still, economic developers should consider small business development programs that include even those ahead of the baby boomer cohort.
Amongst recent mover households, age influences dwelling selection. Households headed by 50 to 69 year olds are more likely to move to single family dwellings of 1,000 to just under 3,000 square feet. Conversely, households headed by individuals aged 70 years or more, are more likely to select multi-family dwellings and in particular, smaller units (under 1,000 square feet). Thus, oldest individuals are more likely to relocate to the smallest, highest density units even after controlling for increased housing costs, shocks, income and children. These results suggest that older households are not homogenous in their housing preferences.
As expected, population aging impacts rural prosperity. The effect is not significant for the proportion of the population aged 70 to 79 years. However, the greater the percentage of the population that is 50 to 59 years of old or 60 to 69 years old, the less likely a rural county is to be prosperous. Contrary to this finding, the greater the proportion of the population that is 80 years of age or older, the greater the likelihood of rural prosperity. It was originally hypothesized that rural areas may fall short of prosperity because of a mismatch between an aging labor force and the prevalence of physically demanding occupations - this is likely not the case.Ph. D.
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Grafeneder-Weissteiner, Theresa, and Klaus Prettner. "Agglomeration processes in aging societies." Department of Economics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2010. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1620/1/document.pdf.
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This article investigates agglomeration processes in aging societies by introducing an overlapping generation structure into a New Economic Geography model. Whether higher economic integration leads to spatial concentration of economic activity crucially hinges on the economies' demographic properties. While population aging as represented by declining birth rates strengthens agglomeration processes, declining mortality rates weaken them. This is due to the fact that we allow for nonconstant population size. In particular, we show that population growth acts as an important dispersion force that augments the distributional effects on agglomeration processes resulting from the turnover of generations. (author's abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Heath, John Charles Newland M. Christopher. "Neurobehavioral consequences of aging and chronic methylmercury exposure interactions with dietary selenium /." Auburn, Ala, 2008. http://repo.lib.auburn.edu/EtdRoot/2008/SUMMER/Psychology/Dissertation/Heath_John_22.pdf.
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Bean, Carol. "Meeting the Challenge: Training an Aging Population to Use Computers." Southeastern Library Association, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/106048.
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Older adults present a special challenge to libraries offering computer training. Many of those seeking training have little, if any, prior experience with the concepts and skills necessary to use computers, yet their ability to learn those concepts and skills is hampered by the aging process. This article summarizes the factors in aging which most affect learning computer skills, and how those factors can be mitigated.
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Sciubba, Jennifer Dabbs. "The politics of population aging in Germany, Italy, and Japan." College Park, Md.: University of Maryland, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/8572.
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Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2008.Thesis research directed by: Dept. of Government and Politics. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
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Travassos, Guilherme Fonseca. "Two essays on consumer demand and population aging in Brazil." Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 2018. http://www.locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/19423.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Esta tese estuda dois tópicos sobre a demanda do consumidor e o envelhecimento populacional usando dados do Brasil. Mas, em primeiro lugar, apresentamos um capítulo introdutório sobre a situação dos idosos no Brasil abordando aspectos como a transição demográfica, o perfil dos idosos brasileiros, as condições sócias demográficas deste segmento e, finalmente, as consequências e as tendências do envelhecimento da população no Brasil. A intenção deste capítulo é introduzir os problemas de pesquisa relacionados à população idosa que serão apresentados nos próximos capítulos. No primeiro ensaio, analisamos o nível de bem-estar dos idosos. Compreender esse tema é importante para a formulação de políticas públicas e de transferência de renda para os idosos, como o cálculo das taxas de pobreza, do seguro de vida e das pensões por morte. No entanto, este tema é pouco conhecido nos países em desenvolvimento e estimativas de economias ricas podem ter uma validade externa limitada em comparação àqueles países. Assim, essa aplicação torna-se relevante no contexto brasileiro, uma vez que a grande maioria dos idosos sobrevive de programas de transferência de renda, tais como pensões pós morte e aposentadoria. Os resultados indicaram que as preferências dos idosos no Brasil são muito similares por gênero e ambos são mais sensíveis às mudanças nas despesas e nos preços dos bens relacionados à saúde. Os resultados indicaram substanciais economias de escala e a participação do idoso aumentando à medida que as despesas totais cresciam. A escala da OCDE subestima a pobreza entre idosas em casais e superestima a pobreza entre idosos homens em casais. No caso das viúvas e dos viúvos, na maioria dos períodos, a escala da OCDE subestima as taxas de pobreza. Finalmente, encontramos que a queda no bem-estar material após a morte da esposa é bastante substancial para os idosos homens e o oposto foi observado para as idosas. O segundo ensaio compara os padrões de gastos de consumo e a demanda, medida por elasticidades preços e dispêndio, dos domicílios em que o idoso ou o adulto não-idoso são os responsáveis, levando em consideração os fatores socioeconômicos associados ao comportamento do consumidor. Nosso estudo reconhece que as diferenças entre as despesas dos idosos e adultos são importantes para estabelecer políticas públicas adequadas para ajudar os consumidores idosos. No decurso do processo de envelhecimento, os agregados familiares idosos desempenharão um papel crescente, mas o seu comportamento pode diferir substancialmente das pessoas mais jovens. Novamente, pouco se sabe sobre essa questão nos países em desenvolvimento, especialmente na América Latina e principalmente no Brasil. Os resultados sugerem que os domicílios brasileiros chefiados por idosos e adultos não idosos têm diferentes padrões de consumo. Os domicílios chefiados por adultos são mais sensíveis às mudanças nas despesas com produtos alimentares, enquanto os domicílios chefiados pelos idosos apresentavam maior sensibilidade para os cuidados da saúde. Variáveis demográficas, principalmente gênero, nível educacional e transferências governamentais, influenciam a demanda pela maioria dos bens em famílias chefiadas por idosos no Brasil. As transferências governamentais ajudam as famílias idosas a gastar mais em Habitação, Alimentação e Saúde. Em relação às variáveis de composição domiciliar, os domicílios formados apenas pelos idosos demandam menos Alimentos e mais Habitação; os domicílios compostos por idosos com crianças demandam mais produtos relacionados a vestuário e transporte, e menos produtos de higiene e habitação; e os domicílios compostos por idosos com parentes exigem menos produtos de cuidados de saúde. Juntos, os dois ensaios contribuem para uma melhor compreensão sobre o padrão do consumo, a demanda dos consumidores e o bem-estar dos idosos usando dados do Brasil, uma economia em desenvolvimento.
This thesis studies two topics on consumer demand and population aging using Brazilian data. We first present an introductory chapter about the situation of the elderly in Brazil addressing aspects such as the demographic transition, the profile of the Brazilian elderly, the socio-demographic conditions of this segment and, finally, the consequences and trends of population aging in Brazil. The intention of this introductory chapter is to guide the research problems related to the elderly population that will be presented in the next chapters. In the first essay, we analyze the level of well-being of the elderly people. Understanding such theme is important for the design of public policies and income transfer for the elderly, such as the calculation of poverty rates, life insurance and death pensions. However, little is known about this topic in developing countries and estimates from rich economies may have limited external validity to the developing world. Thus, this application becomes relevant in the Brazilian context, since the vast majority of the elderly survive from income transfer programs, such as death pensions and retirement. Results indicate that elderly individual’s consumer preferences in Brazil are very similar by gender and both are more sensitive to changes in expenditure and price for Health care. The results indicate substantial economies of scale and a husband’s share that is increasing in total expenditures. OECD scale underestimates poverty among elderly women in couples and overestimates poverty among elderly men in couples. In the case of widow and widowers, in most of the periods, OECD scale underestimates poverty rates. Finally, we find that the drop in material well-being following the wife’s death is rather substantial for men and the opposite was observed for women. The second essay compares consumption expenditure patterns and demand, measure by price and income elasticities, of the elderly and adult-headed households, taking into account socio- economic factors associated to consumer behavior. Our study recognizes that differences between expenditure of the elderly and the adults are important in order to establish appropriate public policies to help elderly consumers. In the course of the aging process, elderly households will play an increasing role, but their behavior might differ substantially from younger people. Again, little is known about this issue in developing countries, especially those in Latin America, and mainly in Brazil. The findings suggest that Brazilian elderly and adult-headed households have different consumption patterns. Adult-headed households were more sensitive to changes in expenditure for Food products, while households headed by the elderly showed more sensitivity for Health care. Demographic variables, mainly gender, education level and government transfers, influence the demand for most of the goods in Brazilian elderly headed households. Government transfers help elderly households to spend more on Housing and Health care. In relation to household composition variables, those formed only by the elderly demand less Food and more Housing; those households composed by the elderly with children demand more Clothing and Transportation products and less Habitation and Health care products; and those households composed by the elderly with relatives demand less Health care products. Together, the two essays contribute to a better understanding about consumer pattern, consumer demand and well-being of elderly using data from Brazil, a developing economy.
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Bagchi, Shantanu. "Essays on Population Aging and Social Security in the U.S." DigitalCommons@USU, 2011. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/895.
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Over the past few decades, falling birth rates and increasing life expectancies have threatened the viability of social security programs all across the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In this dissertation, I attempt to shed some light on the extent of the crisis that the social security program in the United States (U.S.) currently faces, and I also recommend one possible reform policy. In the first essay, I provide an alternative estimate of the impact of population aging on the future social security benefits in the U.S., while accounting for the household-level and macroeconomic adjustments to population aging. Using a general equilibrium life-cycle consumption model with endogenous retirement and incomplete private annuity markets, I find that once these adjustments are accounted for, population aging in the U.S. is likely to cause a significantly smaller decline in the future benefits as compared to the commonly reported estimates that suggest a 25-33% decline. I also find that ignoring either the household retirement mechanism or the aggregate factor price adjustment mechanism could lead to a roughly comparable overestimation of the decline in the future retirement benefits. In the second essay, I ask what should be the optimal or welfare-maximizing social security (OASI) tax rate in the U.S. under such demographic developments. I examine this question using a heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model of life-cycle consumption and labor supply, where social security provides partial insurance against unfavorable efficiency realizations that occur before the agents enter the model. I first calibrate the model such that the current OASI tax rate in the U.S. maximizes social welfare under the current demographics, and then I incorporate empirically reasonable population projections into the calibrated model. Finally, I search for the tax rates that are optimal under such projections. I find that the tax rates that maximize welfare under such projections are about 2 to 5 percentage points higher than the current rate. I also find that a large part of the tax burden of population aging is picked up by the households with relatively favorable efficiency realizations. Finally, the model also predicts that population aging and the optimal tax response may imply a decline in the projected retirement benefits, but of a magnitude smaller than when the tax rate is held unchanged at the current level.
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Gouhier, Tarik Claude. "Causes and consequences of population fluctuations in spatial ecological systems." Thesis, McGill University, 2010. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:8881/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=92227.
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Zannese, Audrey. "Ecological and evolutionary consequences of environmental perturbations for population persistence." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.530811.
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Watts, Phillip Charles. "Population-genetic and biogeographic consequences of dispersal in cheilostome Bryozoa." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.364350.
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Nelson, Erik Healy. "Population consequences of predator avoidance behavior in the pea aphid /." For electronic version search Digital dissertations database. Restricted to UC campuses. Access is free to UC campus dissertations, 2003. http://uclibs.org/PID/11984.
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Gouda, Hebe Naomi. "Events and their consequences : choosing metrics in population health assessments." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.609370.
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Stopher, Katie Vivienne. "Causes and consequences of sexual selection in a wild population." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/5759.
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Although sexual selection in nature has been studied intensively, much is still unknown about the evolution of mating systems in wild populations: for example, how male competition and female choice interact, or the effect of environmental heterogeneity on selection. Further, important questions remain about the consequences of sexual selection for genetic structuring and genetic variation within populations. In this thesis, I investigate the causes and consequences of sexual selection in a polygynous mammal, the red deer Cervus elaphus. This species is characterized by high male reproductive skew resulting from competition to defend harems of females. Here however, I present evidence for previously unappreciated complexity in the mating system, in terms of female mating behaviour and environmental influences on male-male competition. I then go on to investigate the consequences of non-random mating on co-ancestry and inbreeding in the population. Finally, I investigate methods for separating genetic and environmental sources of covariance between individuals. Specifically, I: (i) Show a surprising degree of female mobility during the breeding season (the 'rut‘). Around 40% of females change harem when in oestrus and almost half of these movements result in paternity for the novel male; however I show that these movements are unlikely to be explained by female choice for mates. (ii) Reveal that variance in male mating success is affected by variation in ecological parameters, in particular the interaction between the number of immigrant males in the rutting population and the temporal synchrony of females. (iii) Demonstrate substantial inter-individual differences in the plasticity of acoustic signals produced by rutting males with changes in social context. (iv) Reveal the existence in this population of three rarely reported mating behaviours in polygynous mammals. I find around a fifth of females mate with the same male in multiple years; female relatives frequently mate with the same male; and males rut in locations close to their relatives. Further, I show these behaviours are associated with higher co-ancestry and inbreeding in the population than expected under random mating. (v) Finally, I investigate how spatial associations between relatives upwardly bias estimates of heritability in four phenotypic traits. I do this by accounting for shared environment effects in animal models by i) inclusion of spatial autocorrelation parameters and ii) a novel multi-matrix approach.
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Hubbard, Linda K. "Caring for our own implications of a rapidly aging population for the 21st century community of faith /." Online full text .pdf document, available to Fuller patrons only, 2002. http://www.tren.com.
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Macri, Erin M. "Health outcome measures in an aging population : validity, reliability and interpretability." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/44510.
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In Canada, older adults currently represent a record high proportion of about 15% of the population. Associated with aging is the increased prevalence of multiple morbidity, resulting in widely varied and complex health statuses among our aged. Identifying effective strategies to promote healthy aging and reduce comorbidity hinges on the ability to accurately measure health outcomes. This requires the use of valid and reliable instruments with associated reference statistics to enhance interpretability of test scores.
In Chapter 2, I present a validity study of a patient-reported outcome measure, the Patellofemoral Pain and Osteoarthritis Outcome Scale (PFOOS). The PFOOS is designed to evaluate symptoms relating to patellofemoral (PF) pain and osteoarthritis. I recruited 54 adults aged 18+ with peri- or retro-patellar pain for ≥ 3 months, rated ≥3/10 on a numeric pain scale, aggravated by PF-loading tasks (e.g. squats). People with diffuse knee pain, history of total knee or hip replacement, or severe knee trauma in the past year were excluded. Recruitment was done through adverts to staff & students at an Australian University. Participants completed paper & online versions of the PFOOS, Anterior Knee Pain Scale and SF-36, and repeated the PFOOS in 1-2 weeks. Analysis included internal consistency (Cronbach’s α), test-retest & alternate forms reliability (ICC), and construct validation (hypothesis testing). ICCs were ≥ 0.79, Cronbach’s α ≥ 0.61. The PFOOS performed largely as hypothesized. Overall, the PFOOS demonstrated good validity & reliability in this sample.
In Chapter 3, I report results of a cross-sectional study aimed to develop normative data for the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI). The DEMMI is a performance-based instrument that measures mobility across a spectrum from bed bound to functional independent mobility. A sample of 183 healthy, community-dwelling adults age 60+ were recruited. Mean DEMMI scores varied by age category, by living arrangement (independent vs. assisted living), and by use of mobility aid (p<0.05). Scores did not differ by sex (p=0.49) or falls history (p=0.21). Reference intervals were provided for individual and group comparison, to facilitate use of the DEMMI across the mobility spectrum in clinical and research settings.
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Lam, Mei-yee, and 林美儀. "Community support facilities planning for an aging population in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1998. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31259716.
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Lam, Mei-yee. "Community support facilities planning for an aging population in Hong Kong /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1998. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B19906481.
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Schmucki, Patrick. "The Impact of Population Aging on the Mortgage Market in Switzerland." St. Gallen, 2006. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/03601598001/$FILE/03601598001.pdf.
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Crosson, Ashlee Taylor, and Kelsey Marie Goodwin. "PERCEPTIONS ON THE AGING POPULATION: DISPARITIES AMONG GRADUATE SOCIAL WORK STUDENTS." CSUSB ScholarWorks, 2019. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd/896.
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Social workers are needed to meet the needs of the growing aging population. Yet, there is a shortage of social work students entering the field of gerontology as opposed to child welfare, school social work, or family services. The proposed study used a qualitative research design to explore why social work students are underrepresented in areas that serve older people. A sample of 58 graduate social work students from several universities in Southern California completed open-ended questions on a scale (N = 58). Thematic analysis of the data revealed four major factors that account for the underrepresentation of social work students in gerontology. These were: (a) lack of knowledge about gerontology, (b) misconceptions about the elderly populations, (c) lack of incentives, and (d) preference for other social work areas. These findings hold major implications for theory, research, policy, and social work education.
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Brown, Jeffrey D. "An Investigation Into the Effects of Population Aging on National Saving." Youngstown State University / OhioLINK, 2000. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu999621394.
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Silander, Olin K. "Mutational effects and population genetic consequences a study of two bacteriophages /." Diss., Connected to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2005. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3174408.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2005.Title from first page of PDF file (February 28, 2006). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
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Lucero, Yasmin. "Population consequences of age-dependent maternal effects in rockfish (Sebastes spp.) /." Diss., Digital Dissertations Database. Restricted to UC campuses, 2007. http://uclibs.org/PID/11984.
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Zeybel, Gemma Louise. "Consequences to health : gastro-oesophageal reflux in the cystic fibrosis population." Thesis, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/2692.
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The work described in this thesis relates to gastro-oesophageal reflux (GOR) and extra-oesophageal reflux (EOR) in the cystic fibrosis (CF) population. This thesis describes the characteristics of GOR and EOR and their association with pulmonary function, gastric aspiration and inflammation in the airway. In particular the study explores the increasing prevalence of overweight/obesity in CF and its association with GOR/EOR. In a sub group of patients (n=12) a longitudinal investigation took place to observe the effects of a new CFTR potentiator (Ivacaftor 150 mg/12h) on GOR/EOR symptoms. 72 CF adults recruited from a CF outpatient clinic consented to the study (39M/33F; median age 21 (16-60) years) and completed questionnaires to characterise symptoms of GOR (DeMeester score 0-9; < 1 normal) and EOR (Reflux Symptom Index (RSI) score 0- 2 45; < 13 normal). Patients were measured for BMI kg/m and grouped according to the 2 2 following BMI categories: underweight <18.5 kg/m , normal weight 18.5-25.0 kg/m , 2 2 overweight 25.1-30.0 kg/m and obese >30.0 kg/m . An expectorated sputum sample was provided and analysed for biomarkers of reflux (pepsin n=69 ELISA) and inflammation (IL-6 n=62 and IL-8 n=64 ELISA). Pulmonary function (FEV and FVC % predicted) and 1 genotype were recorded at the time of data collection. Statistical relationships were assessed using the Kruskal-Wallis statistical test followed by the Mann Whitney U test. GOR symptoms (DeMeester) were identified in 42% of patients and EOR symptoms (RSI) in 63% of patients. Pepsin was detected in 48 (70%) patient samples (median: 330ng/ml; range 80-1150ng/ml) and not correlated with GOR/EOR symptoms. GOR/EOR symptoms and gastric aspiration did not associate with pulmonary function, nor was GOR associated with inflammation of the airways. CF patients can be overweight/obese (16.7%), and this was associated with better lung function; they have less reflux. Obesity didn't show a relationship to F508del/F508del status or to gender. Ivacaftor treatment was associated with reduced symptoms of GOR and EOR (6 weeks to 12 month post medication) accompanied by positive effects on pulmonary function. GOR is common in CF patients and EOR symptoms are very prevalent in CF and more so than GOR. Microaspiration of gastric content into the airway was not correlated with pulmonary function and occurred across the spectrum of disease severity. Overweight/obese patients experience less EOR symptoms. The CFTR potentiator Ivacaftor reduced GOR and EOR symptoms after 6 weeks of treatment.
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Crooks, Donneth. "Development and Testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A Composite Indicator to Measure Social Vulnerability in the Jamaican Elderly Population." FIU Digital Commons, 2009. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/186.
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Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.
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Parthasarathy, Sriya. "Digital Human Modeling of the Obese & Aging Population in Automotive Manufacturing." The Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1437474997.
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Turner, Jennifer Renee. "Assessing the Functionality, Triggers, and Emotional Consequences of Nostalgia in a Lifespan Sample: An Experience-Sampling Study." University of Akron / OhioLINK, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1584725172084602.
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Simmonds, Emily G. "Exploring the causes and consequences of phenological change in a wild bird population." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2017. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:89fb7855-fdd8-4f92-915c-8dd9e51a0edd.
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Changes in climate shape biological populations. They can alter spatial distributions, the timing of life history events, and even the species themselves. We are now experiencing a period of rapid directional climate change, alongside seasonal fluctuations. This thesis investigates temporal changes in life history events, phenology, as a climate response. I explore the causes and population level consequences of change in breeding phenology of two wild bird populations from Wytham Woods, UK. I test how great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) achieve temporal synchrony between the peak demands of their breeding and the peak abundance of their prey species (winter moth caterpillars - Operophtera brumata) in an inter-annually variable environment. I demonstrate great tit (Parus major) incubation behaviour fine-tunes the timing of hatching in response to ambient temperatures right up until hatching (Chapter two). Temperatures within the nest box, however, appear to play little role in the breeding phenology of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) (Chapter two). I discuss the merits and limitations of statistical approaches for cue identification (Chapter six), finding the method and time period of data used both affect the cue identified and predictive accuracy. The second part of this thesis explores the influence of a directionally changing environment on great tit phenology. I use an integral projection model (IPM) to predict population dynamics over the 21st century, showing that if the cues used by both interacting species change sufficiently closely, temporal synchrony can be maintained through both phenotypic plasticity and micro-evolution (Chapter 5). However, if the cues diverge mismatch will arise (Chapter 5) causing population declines when certain thresholds are passed (Chapter 4). This work contributes to understanding how phenological synchrony is achieved, how it might change in the future, and its population impacts. In Wytham Woods it appears that great tits have a great deal of flexibility in multiple components of their breeding cycle, allowing them to retain synchrony with their caterpillar prey in a fluctuating environment. These birds are relatively resilient to negative phenological impacts from climate change. Only if the cues used by the predator and prey completely diverge do we predict consistent declines in population size during this century.
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Lüth, Erik. "Private intergenerational transfers and population aging : the German case; with 53 tables /." Heidelberg [u.a.] : Physica-Verl, 2001. http://swbplus.bsz-bw.de/bsz091358108cov.htm.
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Clark, W. Andrew, Ronald C. Hamdy, P. E. Jr Brown, Reza M. Mohseni, and B. H. Owens. "Efficacy of an Absorption Enhanced Vitamin D3 Supplement for an Aging Population." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2018. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/2519.
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