Academic literature on the topic 'Consumer behavior after purchasing'

The book describes the basic issues concerning consumer behavior on the basis of the simulation of the decision-making process on buying behavior of customers in the sales area of the store and shopping Internet sites. 
 The classification of models of consumer behavior, based on research in the area of economic, social and psychological theories and empirical evidence regarding decision-making by consumers when purchasing the goods, including online stores. Methods of qualitative and quantitative research of consumer behavior, fundamentals of statistical processing of empirical data. 
 Attention is paid to the processes of consumers ' perception of brands (brands) and advertising messages, the basic rules for the display of goods (merchandising) and its impact on consumer decision, recommendations on the use of psychology of consumer behavior in personal sales.
 Presents an integrated model of consumer behavior in the Internet environment, the process of perception of the visitor of the company, the factors influencing consumer choice of goods online. 
 Is intended for preparation of bachelors in directions of preparation 38.03.02 "Management", 38.03.06 "trading business" and can be used for training of bachelors in direction of training 43.03.01 "Service", and will also be useful for professionals working in the field of marketing, distribution and sales.

The submitted paper focuses on the application of CSR as a marketing tool in the practice of food companies in Slovakia. Currently, the concept of corporate social responsibility is very widespread. Making profit is no longer the only goal, companies are gradually starting to feel a certain obligation to be involved in the society in which they operate. Even the company on the Slovak food market is increasingly interested in building a good name and brand awareness through CSR activities. To achieve the given goal and obtain the required data, it was based on a questionnaire survey with a total of 946 respondents. To achieve this goal, two research questions and hypotheses were set, which we evaluated using various statistical methods. After evaluating the data obtained from the conducted questionnaire survey, it was found that the respondents do not prefer buying food from a socially responsible food companies based on advertising and that only the youngest generation Z is willing to invest more in socially responsible food products based on advertising. The survey focuses on CSR as an element of marketing communication and its influence on the formation of consumer preferences. At the threshold of the 3rd millennium, CSR is also associated with rationality and irrationality in the creation of preferences in the purchasing behavior of consumers.

Abstract This study aims to investigate the purchasing behavior of Instagram users in the UAE and understand the factors influencing their purchase decisions. Data was collected from 10 respondents through personal interviews, focusing on their demographics, frequency of Instagram usage, purchasing behavior, and the role of social media influencers. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were female Emiratis in their early twenties who use Instagram daily for both personal and business purposes. They reported making purchases through Instagram, with social media influencers significantly impacting their decisions. However, concerns about the authenticity of products were noted. This study provides valuable insights into the behavior of Instagram users in the UAE and underscores the importance of social media influencers in shaping purchase decisions. The findings suggest that businesses in the UAE should leverage Instagram as a marketing tool and ensure the authenticity and reliability of their products to avoid negative customer experiences. Future studies can explore the purchasing behavior of Instagram users in other countries and investigate the impact of various marketing strategies on their purchasing decisions.

Abstract The emergence of sustainability concerns has significantly influenced company strategies. The growing importance of sustainability is particularly affecting marketing, especially product-line pricing strategies. Companies are being coerced into integrating sustainability goals and eco-friendly practices into their current operations; practices which also entail pricing strategies. Proposing optimal pricing strategies according to customer-perceived prices, to maximize sales optimization, has thus gained increased attention from both practitioners and scholars. This chapter explores sustainable consumer behavior and aims to investigate how organizations influence sustainable consumption through a pricing strategy that relies on descriptive and predictive analytics using machine learning methods. More precisely, the focus of this chapter is to provide a comprehensive overview of factors affecting sustainable consumer behavior and the role of price by using descriptive analytic methods (data summarization and visualization) and predictive analytic methods (logistic regression) as tools. Our empirical context features a Nordic retail conglomerate and covers data on sustainable consumer behavior from 2019 to 2024, to which descriptive and predictive analytics using machine learning methods are applied. We conclude the chapter by discussing how retailers can analyze and predict their customers’ purchasing behavior regarding choosing sustainable products over substituting ones.

In an increasingly competitive marketplace, understanding consumer behavior is crucial for companies aiming to maintain market leadership. This study explores consumer buying behavior and satisfaction levels with Samsung products, focusing on key factors influencing purchasing decisions, such as brand perception, product features, pricing, and customer service. The research employs both secondary and primary methodologies, with surveys conducted among 83 respondents to assess their preferences, satisfaction, and loyalty towards Samsung products. Findings indicate that the majority of respondents (71.1%) belong to the 18-25 age group, highlighting the prominence of young consumers in Samsung’s customer base. Most purchases (55.4%) are made in physical stores, emphasizing the continued importance of retail locations. Display quality and brand reputation are significant factors influencing consumer decisions, with 53% and 44.6% of respondents, respectively, rating them as highly important. Additionally, 41% of participants reported being very satisfied with Samsung products, while 32.5% expressed a high likelihood of recommending them to others. However, pricing remains a concern, as 54.2% perceive Samsung products to be more expensive compared to competitors. While after-sales service satisfaction is moderate, with 45.8% expressing satisfaction, 34.9% of respondents are very likely to repurchase Samsung products.This study provides insights that can guide Samsung in refining its marketing strategies and customer engagement efforts. By addressing consumer concerns and leveraging their preferences, Samsung can enhance brand loyalty and maintain its competitive edge in the market.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented changes in con- sumer behavior worldwide. This study explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior in Albania, with a focus on the shift from physical store shopping to online purchases via social media. The research aims to understand how the pandemic influenced consumer purchasing habits and to identify the factors driving this transition. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining qualitative data from 4 focus groups of various participants and quantitative data from a survey of 124 respondents aged 18-39. The findings reveal a significant increase in online shopping during the pandemic, with approximately 40% of respondents showing a preference for social media purchases even after the pandemic. Key factors influencing this shift include time-saving benefits, ease of product search and comparison, a wider variety of products, and lower perceived costs. The study contributes valuable insights into the Albanian market, highlight- ing the dual influence of the pandemic and digital platforms on evolving consumer preferences.

From the perspective of e-commerce, delivery and retail operators can join in discovering valuable data on the platform through interactive data on consumer preferences for delivery service and online-and-offline purchasing. These operators can then summarize the information to make collaborative recommendations more accurately, thus increasing consumer purchasing. The delivery service business model is the final link in logistics for both online-and-offline business. An omni-channel, the online-and-offline business model, provides a complete and uninterrupted consumption experience by combining data and marketing content, acting as an offline physical channel and online with consistent services and information. Online-and-offline business models combine e-commerce and physical commerce. A recommendation system filters information to recommend information, services, or products that users may need based on their preferences, interests, behaviors or needs. Recommendation systems include collaborative filtering, content-oriented recommendation, and knowledge-oriented recommendation. Regarding retail collaborative recommendation, that is, a recommendation mechanism involves two or more parties, such as logistics, retail firms and e-commerce operators, working together to obtain necessary consumer information and knowledge, such as profiles and preferences, as the basis for personalized product recommendations. For example, when consumer A purchases mountaineering equipment on a website, the shipping fee is included after discounts, and A then chooses the transaction method of electronic payment and home delivery service. This transaction record involves three-party operators of products, logistics, and cash flows. Through this transaction, the multi-party platform not only understands consumers' purchasing behavior, but also specifically understands consumers' intentions, including outdoor sports, mountain climbing, online discount preference, electronic payments, home delivery, etc. Through collaborative recommendation, multi-party operators can analyze the specific profile of consumer A and further promote information that may interest the customer. This information is not just about specific products, but also includes information related to backpacks, such as weather, map routes, sports news, blog articles, etc. Thus, collaborative recommendation is an approach that seeks to understand consumers' lives and context. In these regards, this study investigates Vietnamese consumer behaviors with delivery services and omni-channel online-and-offline (n=2,354). Data mining analytics, including clustering analysis and association rules, reveal knowledge clusters/patterns/rules for investigating delivery service and omni-channel online-and-offline for retail collaborative recommendations. Finally, with information technologies and business applications developments, such as artificial intelligence, data computation, business intelligence and machine learning, the theoretical and practical applications of retail collaborative recommendations can be more completely developed for human interaction and emerging technologies.

This article proposes to examines how internet shopping for sports equipment changed during and after the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK. The goal of the study is to comprehend how the pandemic affected consumer behavior in relation to purchasing of sporting goods. Using Google search data for phrases related to sporting goods, the study looks for patterns and changes in customer interest over time. According to our findings, there were considerable shifts in the sports equipment search trends both during and after the epidemic, with a noticeable rise in searches for terms like "home gym," "fitness equipment," and "fitness app," among others. According to the analysis, pandemic-related lockdowns and gym closures were the main causes of the rise in sports gear and fitness-related searches. The survey sheds light on how customers shop online, emphasizing the significance of the home gym trend as a reaction to the closing of conventional gyms and the demand for at-home fitness options. By offering insights into the changing customer behavior during a pandemic, this study adds novelty to the field of sports equipment sales. In their quest to comprehend shifts in customer behavior and modify their strategies in light of such shifts, marketers, corporations, and legislators may find the findings to have major practical ramifications. The research also gives prospects for future studies, such as the comparison of the results with other regions or the discovery of specific elements that influence consumer behavior in this setting.

Understanding consumer behavior in the flooring industry enables the development of suitable products. The aim of this research is to investigate the factors influencing consumers' flooring purchase decisions and to identify recent trends in this field. The research methods used included both qualitative analyses, through personal observations and documntation, and quantitative analyses, through questionnaires and relevant statistical data. The results highlight that factors such as durability, aesthetics, cost, and sustainability are among the most important considerations for consumers in the flooring purchase process. Additionally, there has been an increase in interest in eco-friendly materials and personalized products, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards more sustainable options tailored to individual needs. These findings provide a solid foundation for the development and implementation of effective marketing strategies in the flooring industry, aiming to meet the continuously changing demands of consumers and maintain a competitive advantage in an increasingly dynamic and complex commercial environment.

The clothing industry is highly competitive, with rapidly changing trends, diverse customer preferences, and intense market competition. Therefore, gaining insight into consumer behavior in this specific area becomes essential for apparel retailers who want to create successful business strategies. Understanding the motivations, preferences and patterns of consumer behavior is crucial for market orientation and the creation of effective marketing strategies that will meet customer expectations and at the same time increase the competitive advantage of clothing stores on the market. The basic purpose of our research was to determine the most important factors that influence the purchasing decision of consumers, the influence of fashion trends and influencers, the choice of clothing stores and the choices of online and physical stores.

Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3

Macroeconomic summary Economic activity has recovered faster than projected, and output is now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than anticipated. Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward, though significant downward bias remains. (Graph 1.1). Colombia’s economy returned to recovery in the third quarter after significant supply shocks and a third wave of COVID-19 in the second. Negative shocks affecting mobility and output were absent in the third quarter, and some indicators of economic activity suggest that the rate of recovery in demand, primarily in consumption, outpaced estimates from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in the context of widely expansive monetary policy. Several factors are expected to continue to contribute to output recovery for the rest of the year and into 2022, including the persistence of favorable international financial conditions, an expected improvement in external demand, and an increase in terms of trade. Increasing vaccination rates, the expectation of higher levels of employment and the consequent effect on household income, improved investment performance (which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels), and the expected stimulus from monetary policy that would continue to be expansive should also drive economic activity. As a result, output is estimated to have returned to its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter (previously expected in the fourth quarter). Growth is expected to decelerate in 2022, with excess productive capacity projected to close faster than anticipated in the previous report. Given the above, GDP growth projections have been revised upward for 2021 (9.8%, range between 8.4% and 11.2%) and 2022 (4.7%, range between 0.7% and 6.5%). If these estimates are confirmed, output would have grown by 2.3% on average between 2020 and 2022. This figure would be below long-term sustainable growth levels projected prior to the pandemic. The revised growth forecast for 2022 continues to account for a low basis of comparison from this year (reflecting the negative effects of COVID-19 and roadblocks in some parts of the country), and now supposes that estimated consumption levels for the end of 2021 will remain relatively stable in 2022. Investment and net exports are expected to recover at a faster pace than estimated in the previous report. Nevertheless, the downward risks to these estimates remain unusually significant, for several reasons. First, they do not suppose significant negative effects on the economy from possible new waves of COVID-19. Second, because private consumption, which has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could perform less favorably than estimated in this forecast should it reflect a temporary phenomenon related to suppressed demand as service sectors re-open (e.g. tourism) and private savings accumulated during the pandemic are spent. Third, disruptions to supply chains could be more persistent than contemplated in this report and could continue to affect production costs, with a negative impact on the economy. Finally, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances could translate to increased vulnerability to changes in international financial conditions or in international and domestic economic agents’ perception of risk in the Colombian economy, representing a downward risk to growth. A higher-than-expected increase in inflation, the persistence of supply shocks, and reduced excess productive capacity have led to an increase in inflation projections above the target on the forecast horizon (Graph 1.2). Inflation increased above expectations to 4.51% in the third quarter, due in large part to the price behavior of foods and regulated items, and to a lesser extent to core inflation. Increased international prices and costs continue to generate upward pressure on various sub-baskets of the consumer price index (CPI), as has the partial reversion of some price relief measures implemented in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.