Academic literature on the topic 'Consumptiion (Economics) Household appliances'

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Journal articles on the topic "Consumptiion (Economics) Household appliances"

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Santos, Ricardo, J. C. O. Matias, and Antonio Abreu. "Using Evolutionary Algorithms to Achieve Sustainable Solutions through Household Appliances." Journal of Modeling and Optimization 11, no. 2 (December 15, 2019): 69–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.32732/jmo.2019.11.2.69.

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In order to reach a sustainable planet, there is a permanent need by the consumer (decision- agent), to achieve sustainable solutions, with its decisions. Given the importance of the buildings, as a sector to achieve such solutions, as well as the diversity of household appliances existent on the market, with all its different issues, there are several tradeoffs to consider (e.g. energy and water consumption vs initial investment), which difficult the consumer’s choices from the market. The problem increases, since nowadays, the consumer tries to get a solution from the market, with a good compromise between the Economic, Social and Environmental dimensions, and according to its specific needs, which can be different from other consumers. By considering a multicriteria approach, combined with an optimization technique, based on Evolutionary Algorithms (EA), it’s provided a set of sustainable solutions from the market to the consumer that respects the compromise referred before. In this work, it is presented an approach to support a decision-agent (DA) (consumer), by performing a set of sustainable choices based on household appliances from the market and suitable to its needs. Based on the obtained solutions, several savings are achieved (electrical and water consumption, CO2 emissions), by considering the consumer’s relative importance, regarding its Economics, Environmental and Social concerns.
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Jacobsen, Mette Hove. "Social bases of material consumption: The relationship between social groups and possession of household appliances in Denmark." Journal of Consumer Culture 19, no. 1 (December 21, 2016): 47–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1469540516684190.

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In this article, possession of household appliances in Denmark is used to address the role of social groups in reproducing social norms of material consumption practices. This has been down-played in studies engaging with the ‘practice turn’, especially within the sociology of sustainable consumption. Using latent class analysis, four distinct latent subgroups with similar patterns of material consumption are identified and analysed. On the basis of the possession of appliances, these groups are characterised and labelled unlimited, outdated, limited and updated. After assigning the households to the latent group to which they have the highest probability of belonging, the social character of these groups is examined using logit models, thus making explanations of differences in material consumption practices possible. As identified in other domains of consumption, this study found that patterns of material consumption are socially structured. Researchers within the sociology of sustainable consumption have been particularly interested in studying the role of material arrangements and infrastructures in reproducing shared understandings and common procedures. This article argues that, in order to fully understand the dynamic mechanisms of consumption patterns and the possibilities for sustainable development, the field should equally engage with shared understandings generated and reproduced by social groups.
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Santos, Ricardo, António Abreu, José Soares, Fernanda Mendes, and João M. F. Calado. "A Soft Computing Framework to Support Consumers in Obtaining Sustainable Appliances from the Market." Applied Sciences 10, no. 9 (May 4, 2020): 3206. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10093206.

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Currently, sustainability is considered a priority by society, with the household appliances being one of the economic sectors involved in achieving sustainability. However, the existence of several issues (e.g., energy and water consumption, reliability, initial cost, and illuminance, among others) together with the diversity of brands and models on the market, make the consumer’s decisions regarding sustainable options difficult, according to their concerns and related to each sustainability dimension (economic, environmental, and social). By combining evolutionary algorithms (EA) with multicriteria techniques, it is possible to achieve sustainable solutions for the consumer based on their requirements. In this paper, a method is presented to support the consumer by obtaining a set of sustainable household appliances on the market that suit their preferences, concerns, and needs. By using a case study to apply the approach developed here, a set of sustainable appliances from the market is obtained, where several benefits are achieved (e.g., energy and water consumption savings, avoidance of CO2 emissions) during the lifecycle of each appliance, chosen from the appliance’s industry.
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Sena, Boni, Sheikh Ahmad Zaki, Hom Bahadur Rijal, Jorge Alfredo Ardila-Rey, Nelidya Md Yusoff, Fitri Yakub, Mohammad Kholid Ridwan, and Firdaus Muhammad-Sukki. "Determinant Factors of Electricity Consumption for a Malaysian Household Based on a Field Survey." Sustainability 13, no. 2 (January 15, 2021): 818. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13020818.

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Electricity-saving strategies are an essential solution to overcoming increasing global CO2 emission and electricity consumption problems; therefore, the determinant factors of electricity consumption in households need to be assessed. Most previous studies were conducted in developed countries of subtropical regions that had different household characteristic factors from those in developing countries of tropical regions. A field survey was conducted on electricity consumption for Malaysian households to investigate the factors affecting electricity consumption that focused on technology perspective (building and appliance characteristics) and socio-economic perspective (socio-demographics and occupant behaviour). To analyse the determinant factors of electricity consumption, direct and indirect questionnaire surveys were conducted from November 2017 to January 2018 among 214 university students. Direct questionnaire surveys were performed in order to obtain general information that is easily answered by respondents. On the other hand, some questions such as electricity consumption and detailed information of appliances must be confirmed by the respondents’ parents or other household members through an indirect questionnaire survey. The results from multiple linear regression analyses of the survey responses showed that appliance characteristic factors were the main variables influencing electricity consumption and house characteristics were the least significant. Specifically, air conditioners, fluorescent lamps, and flat-screen TVs emerged as appliances with the most significant effect on electricity consumption. Occupant behaviour factors had a more significant influence than socio-demographic factors. The findings in this study can be used by policymakers to develop electricity-saving strategies in Malaysia.
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Gayathree, Poornima K., and Dinesh Samarasinghe. "Green Stimuli Characteristics and Green Self-Identity Towards Ethically Minded Consumption Behavior with Special Reference to Mediating Effect of Positive and Negative Emotions." Asian Social Science 15, no. 7 (June 30, 2019): 77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ass.v15n7p77.

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Research studies related to ethical consumerism has been gaining increasing attention in the last decade due to growing importance with environmental pollution. Research studies pointed out a gap between ethical consumers’ behavior and intention which is common in Sri Lanka as well. Hence the study used emotions and self-identity as two key drivers which assist in exploring the intention-behavior gap that has not been researched so far. Therefore the research problem addressed is “whether the positive and negative emotions aroused as a result of consumer subjective evaluation to stimuli, impact on the ethically minded consumption behavior?”. The study focused only on environmental friendly electrical household appliances and the population is the academics and professionals who reside Gampaha and Colombo suburbs and who bought environmental friendly electrical household appliances within the last one year of duration. The unit of analysis is individual consumers and the convenience sampling method used. 200 individual respondents contributed to the study and the data collection was done through a self-administered questionnaire. The study has used Smart PLS 3.2 software and the results showed that the green stimuli characteristics and green self-identity significantly influence ethically minded consumer behavior and only positive emotions act as a significant mediator. Most importantly if the consumer’s perceived effectiveness is high, despite the presence of emotions ethically minded consumer behavior will be triggered more. In conclusion, marketers have to use positive emotions when creating the stimuli and should give more priority for assuring the individuals small step for protecting the environment.
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Vieira, P., M. do C. Almeida, J. M. Baptista, and R. Ribeiro. "Household water use: a Portuguese field study." Water Supply 7, no. 5-6 (December 1, 2007): 193–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2007.098.

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Household water use structure can vary significantly depending on several factors like personal habits, socio-economic, cultural and climatic conditions. In the absence of Portuguese data on domestic water consumption, a field study was carried out in order to obtain information that could help support the definition of water conservation measures within the scope of the Portuguese National Program for the Efficient Use of Water. The paper describes the methodology and results obtained in this study, which involved approximately 100 participants that made a characterization of their appliances and detailed recordings of all water uses. Results allowed for the determination of average values of usage duration and frequency for each appliance, total volume consumed per water appliance and per capita water consumption. In terms of consumption structure, it was found that showering and bathing were the main components (36±13%) followed by taps (29±10%) and toilet flushing (21±7%).
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Rinkinen, Jenny, Elizabeth Shove, and Mattijs Smits. "Cold chains in Hanoi and Bangkok: Changing systems of provision and practice." Journal of Consumer Culture 19, no. 3 (July 12, 2017): 379–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1469540517717783.

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We know that patterns of domestic consumption are situated within broader systems of provision and that home appliances like the fridge freezer bridge between practices of cooking, shopping and eating, on one hand, and increasingly global systems of food production, distribution and diet on the other. In analysing the uses of fridge freezers in Hanoi and Bangkok as expressions, in microcosm, of complex and evolving processes of urbanisation and food provisioning, this article provides new insight into how specific configurations, dependencies and patterns of consumption take hold and how they vary and change. Our analysis of systems and practices in flux has the dual function of showing how household strategies reflect and contribute to more extensive transformations, and of demonstrating how these are shaped by ongoing tensions and relations between new and established forms of urban food supply and associated concepts of freshness and safety. The result is a subtle account of the multiple routes through which consumer ‘needs’ evolve.
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Jiang, Wei Fan. "Research on the Selection of Modes of Recycling End-of-Life Appliances Based on AHP." Advanced Materials Research 591-593 (November 2012): 2519–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.591-593.2519.

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As the number of household appliance increasing, and the number of waste products has increased dramatically, these waste electrical appliances’ processing not only bring huge economic expense, and a lot of waste electrical appliances influence ecological environment and the human health. Recycling economy requirements enterprise to reduce energy consumption, and improve the utilization of the resources Focused on the issue of recycling end-of-life appliances, this paper presents three modes of recycling end-of-life appliances, which are self-supporting mode, outsourcing mode and joint management mode, and analyzed the characteristics and application areas respectively. According to the characteristics of the three modes, this paper presents the evaluation index system, and compares each evaluation index. At last, this paper uses the AHP method to choose the mode of recycling end-of-life appliances.
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Auffhammer, Maximilian, and Catherine D. Wolfram. "Powering up China: Income Distributions and Residential Electricity Consumption." American Economic Review 104, no. 5 (May 1, 2014): 575–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.5.575.

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Current forecasts suggest that the vast majority of growth in energy demand will come from the developing world, and that China will play a major part in that growth. This paper presents evidence suggesting that the shape of the income distribution, which is typically omitted from forecasting models, plays a major role in driving household acquisition of energy-using durable goods in rural China. We use province-level data for rural households to show that the share of the population living above the poverty line is an important determinant of household appliance holdings even controlling for average household income.
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Garcia, Janine, Luis Ricardo Salfer, Andreza Kalbusch, and Elisa Henning. "Identifying the Drivers of Water Consumption in Single-Family Households in Joinville, Southern Brazil." Water 11, no. 10 (September 24, 2019): 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11101990.

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This study aims to identify the factors that may influence water consumption in single-family households in the city of Joinville, Southern Brazil. Through questionnaires, data were collected from 108 households in several neighborhoods of the city. The questionnaires contained open-ended and closed-ended questions involving the surrounding infrastructure, socio-economic and demographic characteristics, constructive characteristics, installed plumbing fixtures, and water-use habits, totaling 57 variables. The independent variables were correlated to monthly water consumption (m3/month/household) and per capita consumption (liters/person/day) of each household. The statistically significant variables that affected households water consumption were related to demographic characteristics such as number of residents and educational level, construction features (i.e., number of bathrooms, building age, and built area), the presence of water-efficient appliances and water conservation habits. The results obtained can contribute to the development of new studies on water consumption and sustainable policies and awareness on the importance of water conservation.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Consumptiion (Economics) Household appliances"

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Ward, David O. "Consumers' Willingness to Pay for Energy Labels on Household Appliances." 2010. http://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes/669.

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Voluntary environmental labeling or certification programs provide information about the environmental characteristics of one or more aspects of a product’s life cycle to consumers. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Energy were among the first governmental agencies in the world to adopt environmental information programs. This study examines two U.S. programs – Energy Star, an energy efficiency labeling program, and Green Power Partnership (GPP), a green energy purchasing program, and estimates how much consumers are willing to pay for refrigerators that have been awarded these labels and what factors motivate that willingness to pay. The data were obtained from a survey conducted in March and April of 2009 via an online research panel, which was constructed to be representative of the U.S. population. Analysis of the data was conducted using conditional logit regression models with fixed parameters and mixed logit regression models with random parameters. Results revealed that consumers, on average, have a willingness to pay ranging from $237.81 to $350.54 for the Energy Star label and a willingness to pay ranging from $48.52 to $70.95 for the GPP label. The results also indicate that consumer demographics and attitudes influence WTP. In particular, individuals with greater levels of stated concern for the environment or individuals exhibiting strong perceptions on the effectiveness of consumers to affect product design and the ambient environment had a greater likelihood of choosing a labeled alternative, and thus, a greater WTP for both the Energy Star and GPP label. To manufacturers and government regulators, these results suggest that energy labels can play a significant role in a consumer’s decision making process when selecting a new appliance.
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Books on the topic "Consumptiion (Economics) Household appliances"

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Mormiche, Pierre. L' équipement des foyers en 1988: Enquête biens durables-ameublement de juin 1988. Paris: République française, Ministère de l'économie, des finances et du budget, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques, Direction générale, 1991.

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Dumartin, Sylvie. Equipement des ménages en biens durables électro-ménagers, audiovisuels et de communication: Indicateurs sociaux annuels. Paris: INSEE, 2001.

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Un certain goût français: 1920-1980. Paris: Courtes et Longues, 2011.

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Alice, Ravenhill. Labour-saving devices in the household. Victoria, B.C: W.H. Cullin, 1997.

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Demory, Josette. Les arts ménagers. Boulogne-Billancourt: Du May-Parenthèse, 2007.

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From washboards to washing machines: How homes have changed. Minneapolis: Lerner Publications Co., 2012.

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Gurks, Johannes. 15 Milliarden Stunden im Jahr: Ein Blick auf Hausarbeit und Haushalttechnik in der DDR. Chemnitz: "Phönix GmbH, 1997.

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Claudín, Víctor. Algo cheira mal na cozinha: Guia prático para a convivência pacífica com os electrodomésticos. Lisboa: Temas da Actualidade, 1996.

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Technologies for rural homes and communities. Udaipur: Agrotech Pub. Academy, 2012.

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International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Household Appliances (1st 1997 Florence, Italy). Energy efficiency in household appliances: Proceedings of the First International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Household Appliances, 10-12 November 1997, Florence, Italy. Edited by Bertoldi Paolo, Ricci Andrea 1954-, and Huenges Wajer Boudewijn 1952-. Berlin: Springer, 1999.

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Conference papers on the topic "Consumptiion (Economics) Household appliances"

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Şengül, Seda, and Çiler Sigeze. "The Consumption Expenditure of Households in Turkey: Demand System Estimation with Pseudo Panel Data." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c04.00709.

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In this study, micro data sets obtained by 2005 and 2009 Household Budget Surveys compiled by Turkish Statistical Institute were used to estimate the parameters of household consumption demand and calculate the income-demand elasticities of consumer goods. Total expenditures of the households in this data set delivered into the following 12 different categories of goods and services. The expenditure share of these different categories of goods and services is the dependent variable of this model. In addition, the total household expenditure, the squared total household expenditure, the household size adjusted in accordance with the OECD equivalence scale and the logarithms of squared household size are the independent variables used in the study. The Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE) is used to estimate the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QAIDS) so as to determine the demand parameters of the main commodity groups. The principal result of the study is that the consumption elasticities of the food and nonalcoholic beverages, housing, water, electricity, fuel, clothing and footwear, furniture and house appliances, communications, alcoholic beverages, cigarette and tobacco expenditure are less than 1. Therefore, it can be said that these commodity groups are considered to be mandatory goods. On the other hand, the consumption elasticities of the health, transportation, education services, entertainment and culture, restaurants, hotels, patisseries are more than 1. Thus, these commodity groups are considered to be luxury goods. In this regard, the study concludes that Turkey is considered to be a developing country in terms of the consumption characteristics.
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Zhang, Yan, and Yulin Xia. "An Empirical Study on Capital Structure Influencing Factors of Listed Companies in Household Appliances Industry." In 2017 3rd International Conference on Economics, Social Science, Arts, Education and Management Engineering (ESSAEME 2017). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/essaeme-17.2017.68.

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Germani, Michele, Marco Mandolini, Marco Marconi, and Marta Rossi. "Usability Demonstration of the G.EN.ESI Eco-Design Platform: The Cooker Hood Case Study." In ASME 2015 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2015-46361.

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Due to the increasing pressure of legislations and market, the environmental sustainability is becoming a key competitive factor for companies. In specific markets, as the Northern Europe one, customers are very careful on the quality and sustainability of products, thus companies has to design and manufacture green goods. In this context, there is a strong need of effective design tools and platform which allows to configure products applying the life cycle paradigm and with the “environment on mind”. Currently in the market there are only few examples of products designed taking into account the eco-design concepts. In particular, for mechatronic or energy using products only the use phase is usually considered and all the re-design strategies aim to reduce the energy consumption. This is essentially due to the fact that there is a lack of tools and design platforms, which are easy to use and well integrated with the traditional design tools and with the design processes of companies. This paper wants to demonstrate the usefulness of a set of interoperable eco-design tools, the G.EN.ESI platform, in supporting the re-design of a mechatronic product. The proposed case study, realized in collaboration with an Italian leading company in the sector of household appliances, focuses on the improvement of a domestic cooker hood with the final objective to obtain a more sustainable product. The in-depth experimentation, for the duration of more than 3 months, involved different stakeholders within the company (designers, environmental expert, etc.), with the aim to validate the G.EN.ESI platform tools in different phases of the re-design process. The case study showed that the use of the platform has supported the company in the identification of the environmental hot-spots and during the product re-design phase, considering the whole life cycle. The re-engineered cooker hood exhibits relevant improvements in the most important environmental and economic indicators (environmental impact, energy efficiency, disassemblability, recyclability, etc.). Also a detailed analysis of the platform usability has been performed in order to measure if the tools completely fulfil the expectations of the final users. Finally, the level of integration within the company processes has been evaluated with a dedicated questionnaire. The results of these last analyses showed that the G.EN.ESI platform is appropriate to support a company to improve the sustainability of their products without the needs to heavily alter the traditional design process.
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Reports on the topic "Consumptiion (Economics) Household appliances"

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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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