Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Correlation; Volatility; Portfolio Diversification'

Investing in commodities may have important benefits for investors but only in the last few decades have they started to think more about this possibility. Furthermore, large investors are more inclined to change their own personal view. Therefore, understanding the benefits that commodities could give to an investment portfolio might alleviate investors’ concerns. Several previous studies, as Belousova and Dorfleitner (2012) suggest, that the commodities with higher benefits are precious metals and gold, in particular. The purpose of our work is to understand which possible benefits are for equity investors and if they are common for certain commodities with different physical characteristics. The first part of our empirical work focuses on the main descriptive statistics of the return distribution (mean, variance, volatility, skewness, kurtosis and correlation) for 8 stock indices and 7 commodity futures. The main goal of this is to understand the differences among the commodities and between the commodities and the stock indices. In the second part of the empirical work, we test the safe-haven and the hedge properties of these commodities on a weekly basis for all of them with stock indices, and we do the same on a daily and monthly basis for only commodities which are negatively correlated on average with the stock indices. In the last part of our work, we combine these 7 commodities, following the principles of Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), in order to create a well-balanced and well-diversified commodity index. Additionally, we create some mixed portfolios using this index and a different stock index every time. After that we look at the volatilities and the returns of these mixed portfolios with different weight combinations. Our main goals in this section are to understand the characteristics of the commodity index in comparison with stock indices and then, finding which weight combinations give the mixed portfolios the optimal risk-return trade off. Understanding which are efficient weights, can lead to conclusions about the weight that commodities should have in a portfolio according to the risk tolerance of the investors.  The research is done considering three time frequencies: daily, weekly and monthly; in line with the ones used by Baur and McDermott (2010). The sample size differs among these three different time basis. In fact, daily data started in January 2007 and the other two time frequencies data began with January 1997. All the time samples ended in March 2016. The results of the first part show that gold is the only commodity with a volatility similar to the stock indices (it also has a higher average return) and that on the daily, weekly and monthly basis. Whereas, the other commodities are much riskier than stock indices since they have higher volatility for all the three time-frequencies analyzed.  The results of the second part suggest that only gold is both a safe-haven and hedging commodity in line with the methodology used by Baur and McDermott (2010), but only for DAX 30 on a weekly basis. Furthermore, our results also show that natural gas is strong hedge in some cases such as natural gas for STI (Singapore) on a monthly basis or gold for Nikkei 225 on daily, weekly and monthly basis. Other commodities are neither safe-haven nor hedge in any case, except for silver which is a safe-haven commodity for DAX 30 and Sensex which at its worst, 1% and 5%, declines in the market respectively. The results of the last part of our work show that all the minimum variance mixed portfolios (the ones with the weights give the lowest risk) - made on a weekly basis - reduce the portfolio volatility and make the portfolio returns higher than the stock indices returns in 5 cases out of 8. Additionally, the results show how investors, who add a well-balanced and well-diversified commodity index to their portfolios, are able to observe several weight combinations and choose the one which suits their risk tolerance. Moreover, our results show that the optimal-weight combinations for commodity weights are lower than 0,5 only for FTSE 100 and S&P 500 (both values are 0,49) and higher than 0,62 but lower than 0,7 for DAX 30, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Sensex, SSEC. Furthermore, the optimal weight for STI is 0,54.

Increasing awareness of sustainable issues is just one of the ways how modern society has evolved. Due to the growing challenges faced by climate change and societal issues, our world has grown to be more innovative in the fight and support towards initiatives that will contribute to the long-term of the world we live in. Capitalists have exploited the resources, and as such, it is the economy where we can make the most significant changes to reverse the negative consequences. Responsible investment has incorporated various financial tools oriented towards the support of environmental, societal, and governance practices to revert the adverse effects brought on by capitalism. Sustainable bonds are a type of fixed income financial tool to support responsible investment practices. Their motive is to drive the financing of projects oriented towards positively contributing to the environment, society, and governance.   Previous studies on the field of responsible investment have covered the topic of green bonds and, most recently, social bonds. Although this field is relatively new, much of the literature developed has focused on the financial returns of such fixed-income assets. This thesis is the first to attempt the study of a self-created Swedish Sustainable Bond index consisting of 156 sustainable bonds issued in the Swedish market in correlation to three other asset classes. General interests and a lack of research due to its contemporary issuance in this context brought us to study such relation of return characteristics with its conventional bond counterpart, the equity market, and the energy stock section all within the Swedish market. The objective, as such, was to determine whether such an instrument could be used as a diversification tool.   For us to be able to conduct this study, we utilized the returns of each category’s indices. We applied different statistical models and tests, including correlation, univariate, and multivariate GARCH models, to be able to ensure robust results that could yield thought-provoking results for us to analyze. In conjunction with the Modern Portfolio Theory, we were able to determine that sustainable bonds provide investors with some diversification benefit by a positive correlation with the conventional bond and negative correlations with the equity and energy stock market. Volatility clustering and spillover effects within the Swedish sustainable bonds and the identified markets were also present.   We went a step ahead and curious to explore whether the conventional bond market was better off than the sustainable bond market. Such results indicate that the conventional bond is still a better tool for diversification purposes with the other two asset classes selected in comparison to the Swedish Sustainable Bond. As such, we are still wishful that sustainable bonds could potentially change their behavior in the future as a diversification tool, as more regulations and standardization of such asset classes are implemented.

Mestrado em Finanças<br>Normalmente, as Bitcoins são associadas a um lado mais controverso e ilegal - Bitcoin como meio de chantagem a pessoas ou empresas. Esquemas de pirâmide (Ponzi) ou ainda meio de pagamento no mercado negro, geralmente na dark-web. Mas, existem investidores que estão a utilizar Bitcoin como um ativo nos seus investimentos, seja numa estratégia mais passiva seja mais ativamente, com compra e venda consoante as flutuações cambiais. O aspeto negativo deste ativo financeiro é a sua volatilidade Apesar de, atualmente, Bitcoins e outras cripto moedas se encontrarem numa zona cinzenta, ou vazio legal, e serem um ativo de elevado risco, existe a possibilidade de estas pertencerem a portfolios de investimento, como agente de diversificação. Um agente diferente e recente, mas algo possível. Esta dissertação tem, portanto, como objetivo, analisar se a Bitcoin pode ser um agente diversificador num portfolio eficiente e bem diversificado.<br>Usually, we associate Bitcoin with the dark side of the finance world - Bitcoin as a mean for online blackmail or scam, the black market or even for Ponzi schemes, where Bitcoin and other digital currencies are used as mean of payment, instead of physical currency. But, there are also investors who are using Bitcoin as an investment asset, whether for buy and hold strategies or trading The downside of this investment asset it is the volatility Although risky and legally in a grey zone, it can be used in an investment portfolio as a diversification agent, an odd one but perhaps feasible. The aim of this thesis is to analyze if Bitcoin can as a diversification agent in an efficient and well diversified portfolio.<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Submitted by Joana Vieira (joana_cvieira@hotmail.com) on 2015-10-13T12:58:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FINAL REPORT JOANA VEIRA FGV.pdf: 3927213 bytes, checksum: a8f998809220a76b7f10b84fa630e2b0 (MD5)<br>Rejected by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br), reason: Joana, o numero das paginas deve contar a partir da capa, está certo mas só deve aparecer o numero a partir da introdução. fico a disposição. Ana Luiza Holme 3799-3492 on 2015-10-13T16:24:51Z (GMT)<br>Submitted by Joana Vieira (joana_cvieira@hotmail.com) on 2015-10-13T17:42:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FINAL REPORT JOANA VEIRA FGV.pdf: 3951971 bytes, checksum: 667456b57a07dda99ac9aeb852a0c8ee (MD5)<br>Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2015-10-13T17:44:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FINAL REPORT JOANA VEIRA FGV.pdf: 3951971 bytes, checksum: 667456b57a07dda99ac9aeb852a0c8ee (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2015-10-13T17:49:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FINAL REPORT JOANA VEIRA FGV.pdf: 3951971 bytes, checksum: 667456b57a07dda99ac9aeb852a0c8ee (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-25<br>Taking into account previous research we could assume to be beneficial to diversify investments in emerging economies. We investigate in the paper International Portfolio Diversification: evidence from Emerging Markets if it still holds true, given the assumption of larger world markets integration. Our results suggest a wide spread positive time-varying correlations of emerging and developed markets. However, pair-wise cross-country correlations gave evidence that emerging markets have low integration with developed markets. Consequently, we evaluate out-of-sample performance of a portfolio with emerging equity countries, confirming the initial statement that it has a better a risk-adjusted performance over a purely developed markets portfolio.

Submitted by Moritz Gorny (mgorny@online.de) on 2017-10-23T17:41:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV_WORKPROJECT_FINAL.pdf: 9639847 bytes, checksum: f844e7eb2597f24be32d35574b55e41d (MD5)<br>Approved for entry into archive by Josineide da Silva Santos Locatelli (josineide.locatelli@fgv.br) on 2017-10-23T18:02:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV_WORKPROJECT_FINAL.pdf: 9639847 bytes, checksum: f844e7eb2597f24be32d35574b55e41d (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-24T12:05:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV_WORKPROJECT_FINAL.pdf: 9639847 bytes, checksum: f844e7eb2597f24be32d35574b55e41d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-09-25<br>The thesis uses return data on equities, bonds, commodities and real estate for the U.S., Europe, Asia and Latin America to examine diversification potentials. The analysis focuses on benefits of cross-asset and cross-region diversification as well as the impact of financial distress on those strategies and portfolio performances. It concludes that diversification benefits vary over time and decrease in bear markets due to higher correlation. Investmentgrade bonds and gold have shown the highest diversification benefits for equity investors during financial distress. Assets from emerging markets seem to be less sensitive to global market drops and show more constant performances.<br>A tese utiliza dados de retorno sobre ações, títulos, commodities e imóveis para os EUA, Europa, Ásia e América Latina para examinar os potenciais de diversificação. A análise centra-se nos benefícios da diversificação entre ativos e entre regiões, bem como o impacto do sofrimento financeiro nessas estratégias e desempenhos da carteira. Conclui que os benefícios da diversificação variam ao longo do tempo e diminuem nos mercados ostentosos devido à maior correlação. Os títulos de grau de investimento e o ouro mostraram os maiores benefícios de diversificação para os investidores de capital durante o sofrimento financeiro. Os ativos dos mercados emergentes parecem ser menos sensíveis às quedas do mercado global e mostram performances mais constantes.

This thesis aims to investigate the benefits of international diversification from a Swedish perspective. It presents a comparative study of the performance of different portfolios based on their degree of international diversification with a focus on Swedish investors frame of reference. Such a study is motivated by the contradictory literature about portfolio diversification and information portfolio theory that advocate for a more concentrated portfolio. It focuses solely on comparing portfolios constituted with major indices of a representative sample including countries from different parts of the world. The different scales of those portfolios start from a divided part of the Swedish economy to end with a global portfolio. We observed that international diversification can outperform the domestic portfolios when considering risk and return. In addition, we observed that the best performing portfolios over the periods are systematically concentrated on emerging countries and that the high return of those emerging countries is often not associated with a correspondingly high standard deviation as it should be expected. The best levers of performance that we identified as a result of this comparative study are, first, the strategy consisting in focusing on the most concentrated portfolios in order to maximize the return and then trying to time the market, thanks to a specialized information collection strategy, but this bear a high undiversifiable risk. Or second, adopting an intentionally diversified portfolio and collecting information about the most promising emerging markets that will be then over weighted in the portfolio to lower the risk and higher the return. Lastly, the study recommend that home-biased investors should change their behavior and consider international investments when building a portfolio.

<p>There is evidence that globalization, economic assimilation and integration among countries and their financial markets have increased correlation among stock markets and the correlation may in turn impact investors’ allocation of their assets and economic policies. We have conducted a quantitative study with daily stock index quotes for the period January 2000 and December 2009 in order to measure the eventual correlation between the markets of ASEAN+3. This economic integration consists of; Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, China, Japan and South Korea. Our problem formulation is:Are the stock markets of ASEAN+3 correlated?Does the eventual correlation change under turbulent market conditions?In terms of the eventual correlation, discuss: is it possible to diversify an investment portfolio within this area?The purpose of the study is to conduct a research that will provide investors with information about stock market correlation within the chosen market. We have conducted the study with a positivistic view and a deductive approach with some theories as our starting point. The main theories discussed are; market efficiency, risk and return, Modern Portfolio Theory, correlation and international investments. By using the financial datatbase, DataStream, we have been able to collect the necessary data for our study. The data has been processed in the statistical program SPSS by using Pearson correlation.From the empirical findings and our analysis we were able to draw some main conclusions about our study. We found that most of the ASEAN+3 countries were strongly correlated with each other. Japan showed lower correlation with all of the other countries. Based on this we concluded that economic integration seems to increase correlation between stock markets. When looking at the economic downturn in 2007-2009, we found that the correlation between ASEAN+3 became stronger and positive for all of the countries. The results also showed that the correlation varies over time. We concluded that it is, to a small extent, possible to diversify an investment portfolio across these markets.</p>

This paper examines the impact of USD and EUR exchange rates on the Swedish stock market performance for different economic sectors over a time period of ten years (2003-2013). The growing integration between foreign exchange markets and stock markets with the wide spread use of hedging and diversification policies made it necessary to test the degree of impact these two distinct markets share between each other. Number of studies, were done studying the relationship between the exchange rates and stock performance combining and comparing different economies and currencies. Nevertheless, research gap prevailed when it came at the point of the studying the relationship on Swedish stock and foreign exchange market. The research was conducted with the quantitative method. Initially we have tested how the performance of Swedish stock market is correlated with the return of the USD and EUR in different economic sectors over different time periods. Later, we try to investigate if there is any spillover effect flows from the exchange market to the Swedish stock market. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient and GARCH (1,1) model were applied to study the correlation and spillover effect between the exchange and stock return respectively. Our empirical study showed that there is very low correlation which is statistically insignificant between the two different markets. Correlations were found to be significantly varied across the different economic sectors in different time periods. Moreover empirical study supported that the spillover effect exists and showed that movement of exchange rates will affect the future performance of stock market. The significant conclusions were that USD and EUR can be used as portfolio diversification and during the volatile exchange market, investors should diversify or hedge their risk domestically and vice versa. The implications of this finding is particularly very important for the portfolio managers when devising their hedging policies and diversifying their portfolios in order to minimize their unsystematic risk.

La crise financière de 2008 a mis en exergue l'instabilité financière des banques en identifiant le caractère procyclique du levier bancaire, la sous-capitalisation des banques, et la nécessité de définir une nouvelle régulation bancaire. La dimension internationale des activités bancaires et l'identification des banques globales complètent ce constat. Les banques européennes, par leurs expositions aux marchés financiers américains, sont diversifiées internationalement: une part de leurs actifs et de leurs dettes est libellée en dollar américain. Le taux de change flottant entre le dollar et l'euro introduit un effet de valorisation et un risque de change qui impactent la stabilité bancaire. Cette thèse étudie l'impact de la diversification internationale des bilans bancaires sur la procyclicité du levier, sur la structure du capital, et sur la volatilité de capital. Quatre chapitres combinent des travaux théoriques et empiriques. Le premier chapitre analyse l'impact théorique de la diversification sur la procyclicité du levier. Le chapitre 2 utilise des données bancaires françaises entre 1999 et 2015 et montre un impact positif. Dans le chapitre 3, les mêmes données sont utilisées afin d'estimer l'impact de la diversification sur la structure du capital. L'introduction de cette dimension est déterminante dans le cadre de cette analyse. Enfin, le chapitre 4 élargit la problématique en reliant l'intégration internationale, la diversification et la volatilité du capital. Nous identifions les différentes sources de risque et nous montrons que la banque peut bénéficier d'un régime de change flottant et d'une diversification internationale<br>The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled discussions on the financial stability of banks by identifying the procyclical behavior of banking leverage, the lack of capital in banks' balance sheet and the necessity of introducing a new regulatory framework. It has also highlighted the international dimension of banking activities and the identification of global banks. The significant exposure to the US financial markets leads to an international diversification of European global banks where part of their assets and liabilities are denominated in US dollar. The floating exchange rate regime between the US dollar and the euro then implies a foreign exchange risk and a valuation effect that would affect banking stability. The purpose of thesis is to study the impact of international diversification of bank’s balance sheet on leverage procyclicality, capital structure and equity volatility. I develop four chapters combining theoretical and empirical research. The first chapter analyses the theoretical impact of currency diversification on leverage procyclicality. Chapter 2 uses innovative data on banks located in France from 1999 to 2015 and shows that the relationship is positive. In the third chapter, we use our data to estimate the impact of international diversification on capital structure and we show that introducing this new dimension is determinant to the capital structure. Finally, chapter 4 enlarges the analysis to international integration, diversification and equity volatility. I identify all risk channels a bank supports and show that banks can benefit from both floating foreign exchange regime and international diversification

Real estate is an attractive asset class in the mixed-asset portfolio due to favorable risk return characteristics and low correlations with other asset classes like stock and bonds. Unlike financial assets, real estate is a physical asset where large lot sizes/indivisibility, heterogeneity, low liquidity and high transaction costs make applying financial models like modern portfolio theory (MPT) challenging. Optimal allocations to real estate found in literature are generally lower than actual allocations by investors and portfolio managers indicating there are aspects of the application of MPT to real estate that are not fully understood. Since management of real estate is costly and requires expert skills, the question on whether to outsource property management functions is of paramount interest for the real estate industry. The aim of the thesis is to contribute to the literature on strategic decisions for real estate investors on allocation and management, Apart from reviewing literature relevant for strategic decisions at different levels and using a top-down approach to illustrate how selected allocation and management decisions are connected, four separate empirical studies are made to investigate the nature of selected strategic decisions for real estate investors.<br><p>QC 20170515</p>

The diploma thesis focuses on the design of suitable stock exchange indices for portfolio diversification. The essence and principle of functioning of financial markets and investment funds is presented. According to suitable indicators, stock exchange indices are analyzed and compared with the market. Suitable indices are verified by means of correlation analysis and subsequently recommended to diversify the portfolios of investment funds managed through the investment company.

The main purpose of this thesis is to assess the potential of emerging stock markets and commodity markets in attracting the attention of international investors who utilize various portfolio diversification strategies to reduce the cumulative risk of their portfolio. A successful portfolio diversification strategy requires low correlation among financial markets. However, it is now well documented that the correlations among financial markets in developed countries are very high and hence the benefits of international portfolio diversification among these markets have been very limited. This fact suggests that investors should look for alternative markets whose correlations with developed markets are low (or even negative if possible) and which have high growth potentials. In this thesis, two emerging countries&#039<br>stock markets and two commodity markets are considered as alternative markets. Among emerging countries, Turkey and China are chosen due to their promising growth performance since the mid-2000s. As commodity markets, agricultural commodity and precious metal markets are selected because of the outstanding performance of the former and the &quot<br>safe harbor&quot<br>property of the latter. The structures and properties of dependence between these markets and stock markets in developed countries are examined by modeling the conditional correlation in the dynamic conditional correlation framework. The results reveal that upward trend hypothesis is valid for almost all correlations among market pairs and market volatility plays significant role in time varying structures of correlations.

Syfte: Studera sju portföljer och notera den bästa typen av portfölj med högst avkastning till lägst risk. Metod: Sekundärdata är grunden för uträkning av samtliga portföljers avkastningar, risker och korrelation. Studien är deduktiv med kvantitativa inslag av kända teorier av nobelpristagare i ekonomisk vetenskap.  Slutsats: Studien visar att stora bolag i olika branscher är ett vinnande portföljinnehåll för denna studie. Stora bolags aktier har visat högre avkastning till lägre risk jämfört med små bolag under studiens tid då ekonomiska kriser drabbade marknaden. Den mest presterande portföljen var därför storbolagsportföljen. Vidare forskning: Längre tidsperspektiv och nya teorier som Jensens alfa samt Treynorkvot är av intresse för vidare forskning för att styrka vår slutsats.<br>Intention: To study seven portfolios and note the best type of portfolio with the maximum return at a minimum risk. Method: Secondary data is the basis for calculation of the total portfolio returns, risk and correlation. This study is deductive based using a quantitative method of world-known theories of Nobel laureates in economic sciences. Conclusion: The study shows that the best efficient portfolio contains large companies in different lines of business. Large companies' shares have higher returns at lower risk compared to small companies in circumstances to difficult economic situations globally. The best performed portfolio was the portfolio with large companies.                                       Further Research: Longer period of time study and a study of new theories such as Jensens Alfa and Tretnor ratio would be interesting for further research.

Few studies have examined the impact of portfolio concentration upon the realised volatility of stock index portfolios, such as the FTSE 100. Instead, previous research has focused upon diversification across industries, across geographic regions and across different firms. The present study addresses this imbalance by calculating the daily time series of four concentration metrics for the FTSE 100 Index over the period from January 1984 through March 2003. In addition, the value weighted variance covariance matrix (VCM) of daily FTSE 100 Index constituent returns is decomposed into four sub-components: two from the diagonal elements and two from the off-diagonal elements of the VCM. These consist of the average variance of constituent returns, represented by the sum of diagonal elements in the VCM, and the average covariance represented by the sum of off-diagonal elements in the VCM. The value weighted average variance (VAV) and covariance (VAC) are each subdivided into the equally weighted average variance (EAV) the equally weighted average covariance (EAC) and incremental components that represent the difference between the respective value-weighted and equally weighted averages. These are referred to as the incremental average variance (IAV) and the incremental average covariance (IAC) respectively. The incremental average variance and the incremental average covariance are then combined, additively, to produce the incremental realised variance (IRV) of the FTSE 100 Index. The incremental average covariance and the incremental realised variance are found to be negative during the 1987 crash and the 1992 ERM crisis. They are also negative for a substantial part of the study period, even when concentration was at its highest level. Hence the findings of the study are consistent with the notion that the value weighted, and hence concentrated, FTSE 100 Index portfolio is generally less risky than a hypothetical equally weighted portfolio of FTSE 100 Index constituents. Furthermore, increases in concentration tend to precede decreases in incremental realised volatility and increases in the equally weighted components of the realised VCM. The results have important implications for portfolio managers concerned with the effect of changing portfolio weights upon portfolio volatility. They are also relevant to passive investors concerned about the effects of increased concentration upon their benchmark indices, and to providers of stock market indices.

This thesis is composed of three chapters. The first two chapters provides novel approaches for<p>modeling and estimating the dependence structure for a large portfolio of assets using rating data.<p>In both chapters a natural form of organizing a portfolio in terms of the levels of exposure to economic sectors and geographical regions, plays a key role in setting up the dependence structure.<p>The last chapter investigates weather financial strategies that exploit sector or geographical heterogeneity in the asset space are relevant in terms of portfolio optimization. This is also done in a context of a large portfolio but with data on stock returns.<br>Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This thesis consists of four self-contained papers related to the change of market structure and the quality of equity market. In Paper [I] we found, by using of a Flexible Dynamic Component Correlations (FDCC) model, that the creation of a common cross-border stock trading platform has increased the long-run trends in conditional correlations between foreign and domestic stock market returns. In Paper [II] we study whether the creation of a uniform Nordic and Baltic stock trading platform has affected weak-form information efficiency. The results indicate that the stock market consolidations have had a positive effect on the information efficiency and turnover for an average firm. The merger effects are, however, asymmetrically distributed in the sense that relatively large (small) firms located on relatively large (small) markets experience an improved (reduced) information efficiency and turnover. Although the results indicate that changes in the level of investor attention (measured by turnover) may explain part of the changes in information efficiency, they also lend support to the hypothesis that merger effects may partially be driven by changes in the composition of informed versus uninformed investors following a stock. Paper [III] analyzes whether the measured level of trust in different countries can explain bilateral stock market correlations. One finding is that generalized trust among nations is a robust predictor for stock market correlations. Another is that the trust effect is larger for countries which are close to each other. This indicates that distance mitigates the trust effect. Finally, we confirm the effect of trust upon stock market correlations, by using particular trust data (bilateral trust between country A and country B) as an alternative measurement of trust. In Paper [IV] we present the impact of the stock market mergers that took place in the Nordic countries during 2000 – 2007 on the probabilities for stock price jumps, i.e. for relatively extreme price movements. The main finding is that stock market mergers, on average, reduce the likelihood of observing stock price jumps. The effects are asymmetric in the sense that the probability of sudden price jumps is reduced for large and medium size firms whereas the effect is ambiguous for small size firms. The results also indicate that the market risk has been reduced after the stock market consolidations took place.

[Truncated abstract] Given the theoretical and historical evidence that support the benefit of investing internationally. there is Iittle knowledge available of proper international portfolio construction in terms of how much should be invested in foreign countries, which countries should be targeted, and types of assets to be included in the portfolio. The prospects of these benefits depend on the market volatilities, cross-country correlations, and currency risks to change in the future. Another important issue in international portfolio diversification is the growth of newly emerging markets which have different characteristics from the developed ones. Addressing the issues, the thesis intends to investigate the nature of volatility, conditional correlations, and the impact of currency risks in international portfolio, both in developed and emerging markets. Chapter 2 provides literature review on volatility spillovers, conditional correlations, and forecasting both VaR and conditional correlations using GARCH-type models. Attention is made on the estimated models, type of assets, regions of markets, and tests of forecasts. Chapter 3 investigates the nature of volatility spillovers across intemational assets, which is important in determining the nature of portfolio's volatility when most assets are seems to be connected. ... The impacts of incorporating volatility spillovers and asymmetric effect on the forecast performance of conditional correlation will also be examined in this thesis. The VARMA-AGARCH of McAleer, Hoti and Chan (2008) and the VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003) will be estimated to accommodate volatility spillovers and asymmetric effect. The CCC model of Bollerslev (1990) will also be estimated as benchmark as the model does not incorporate both volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects. Given the information about the nature of conditional correlations resulted from the forecasts using a rolling window technique, Section 2 of Chapter 4 investigates the nature of conditional correlations by estimating two multivariate GARCH models allowing for time-varying conditional correlations, namely the DCC model of Engle (2002) and the GARCC model of McAleer et al. (2008). Chapter 5 conducts VaR forecast considering the important role of VaR as a standard tool for risk management. Especially, the chapter investigates whether volatility spillovers and time-varying conditional correlations discussed in the previous two chapters are of helps in providing better VaR forecasts. The BEKK model of Engle and Kroner (1995) and the DCC model of Engle (2002) will be estimated to incorporate volatility spillovers and conditional correlations, respectively. The DVEC model of Bollerslev et al. (1998) and the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990) will be estimated to serve benchmarks, as both models do not incorporate both volatility spillovers and timevarying conditional correlations. Chapter 6 concludes the thesis and lists somc possible future research.

The thesis uses return data on equities, bonds, commodities and real estate for the U.S., Europe, Asia and Latin America to examine diversification potentials. The analysis focuses on benefits of cross-asset and cross-region diversification as well as the impact of financial distress on those strategies and portfolio performances. It concludes that diversification benefits vary over time and decrease in bear markets due to higher correlation. Investment grade bonds and gold have shown the highest diversification benefits for equity investors during financial distress. Assets from emerging markets seem to be less sensitive to global market drops and show more constant performances.

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management<br>Volatility products have seen a growth in trading volume, partly due to the interesting characteristics these products demonstrate in relation to the market. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is seen as a fear gauge and as such is normally used to hedge against big drops in market value as a form of insurance for a portfolio. This thesis extends the original Dash and Moran framework and tests new ways to use the exchange traded product associated with VIX. I study whether VIX option strategies, in specific Straddle and Strangle, can improve the risk adjusted performance of a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and commodities. The study takes place between the periods of 2006 and 2013 and relies on simulations of different portfolio combinations including the main instrument (equity, bond or commodity) and a percentage invested in the VIX strategy. We find that, in general, straddle strategies are not recommended since we obtain a lower volatility and Value-at-Risk with the impact of much lower returns making it an unattractive investment for any investor. On the other hand, the strangle strategy shows improvements in the overall performance of the equity and commodities portfolios mainly in the periods during which securities prices fall and with a low allocation to the strategy (lower than 2%) and highly Out-of-the-Money.

abstract: This dissertation assesses the impact of revenue diversification on state revenue growth and volatility and then, the economic, political and institutional factors that predict diversification. Previous studies, taking advice from modern portfolio theory, argue that diversifying a revenue portfolio can stabilize volatility and even lead to faster rates of growth over time. However, levels of diversification are not assigned randomly. Rather, differences among states in diversification might be a consequence of differences in states such as electoral cycles and the presence and strictness of tax limitations. Thus, the research question is: Whether or to what extent has diversification increased revenue growth and decreased volatility when the endogeneity of diversification is considered? Using two-stage least squares and fixed-effects regression models with the data of the 50 states from 1980 to 2011, I examined the impact of diversification, reflecting a state's own political and institutional characteristics (i.e., endogeneity), on growth and volatility. I found diversification was positively related to growth, but a diversified portfolio does not smooth volatility. Furthermore, I found that the level of revenue diversification increased in each year of legislators' terms and decreased in every year of governors' terms. These findings imply that legislators and governors have different preferences for diversification, perhaps due to different opportunities to enhance their reelection prospects. I then investigated the relationship between political leaders' year of the terms and changes in specific revenue sources, the biggest set of reelection opportunities. Selective sales and income taxes were negatively related to every year of legislators' terms. General sales taxes, corporate income taxes, and charges are positively related to every year of governors' terms. The results suggest that legislators focus on their districts or specific interest groups, closely associated with selective sales taxes. In contrast, governors' constituency-driven preferences lead them to be responsible for broader issues such as balancing the state budget, thereby using general sales taxes and charges as methods to do so. As a consequence of these political factors, levels of diversification will change, thereby influencing revenue growth and volatility.<br>Dissertation/Thesis<br>Ph.D. Public Administration 2013

Плоткін О. І. Розробка проекту диверсифікації виробництва на підприємстві АТ «Мелітопольський м’ясокомбінат» : кваліфікаційна робота магістра спеціальності 073 "Менеджмент" / наук. керівник С. В. Северина. Запоріжжя : ЗНУ, 2019. 96 с.<br>UA : Кваліфікаційна робота: 96 с., 10 рис., 15 табл., 4 додатки, 47 джерел. Об’єкт дослідження кваліфікаційної роботи – особливості розробки та впровадження проектів диверсифікації виробництва на підприємстві. Предмет дослідження – методичні підходи та принципи розробки (впровадження) проектів диверсифікації виробництва на АТ «Мелітопольський м’ясокомбінат». Метою кваліфікаційної роботи є аналіз господарської діяльності та фінансового стану АТ «Мелітопольський м’ясокомбінат», а також обґрунтування проекту диверсифікації виробництва. Відповідно до визначеної мети в роботі поставлені такі завдання: розглянути поняття диверсифікації, вивчити фактори, що впливають на вибір проекту диверсифікації; дослідити основні підходи та особливості впровадження проектів диверсифікації виробництва на підприємстві; проаналізувати господарську діяльність та фінансовий стан АТ «Мелітопольський м’ясокомбінат»; запропонувати підхід до розробки проекту диверсифікації виробництва; застосувати підхід до оптимізації товарного портфеля, що може використовуватись при розробці проекту диверсифікації виробництва. Методи дослідження: загальнонаукові та емпіричні методи наукових досліджень, зокрема, описовий, методи аналізу та синтезу; кількісні: методи порівняння відносних і абсолютних величин, групування; методи економічного, статистичного й експертного аналізу; метод графічного зображення. У процесі дослідження отримано такі наукові результати, яким притаманна наукова новизна: набуло подальшого розвитку застосування методичного підходу до розробки проекту диверсифікації виробництва на підприємстві, послідовність проведення якого дещо відрізняється від стандартної методики за кількістю етапів і враховує особливості діяльності м’ясокомбінату; запропоновано підхід до формування товарного портфелю АТ «Мелітопольський м’ясокомбінат», який передбачає оцінку ризику недоотримання прибутку по кожному виду продукції та ступінь кореляції між ними, що може використовуватися при розробці проекту диверсифікації виробництва. Отримані результати дослідження щодо впровадження проектів диверсифікації виробництва можуть бути впроваджені в практику роботи виробничих підприємств, зокрема АТ «Мелітопольський м’ясокомбінат». Застосування на практиці запропонованих автором рекомендацій дозволить покращити фінансові результати діяльності та підвищити конкурентоспроможність згідно вибраного напрямку диверсифікації в довгостроковій перспективі.<br>EN : Qualifying work: 96 pp., 10 fig., 15 tab., 4 annex, 47 references. The object of study is the features of the development and implementation of production diversification projects at the enterprise. The subject of study – methodical approaches and principles of development (implementation) of production diversification projects at the enterprise of JSC «Melitopol meat-packing plant». The purpose of the qualification work is to analyze the economic activity and financial condition of JSC «Melitopol meat-packing plant» and to substantiate the project of production diversification. According to the goals the following tasks are solved: to consider the concept of diversification, to study the factors that influence the choice of diversification project; to investigate the main approaches and features of implementation of production diversification projects at the enterprise; to analyze the economic activity and financial condition of JSC «Melitopol meat-packing plant»; to propose an approach to the development of a production diversification project; apply a product portfolio optimization approach that can be used in the design of a production diversification project. Methods of research: general scientific and empirical methods of scientific research, in particular: descriptive, methods of analysis and synthesis; quantitative: methods for comparing relative and absolute values, groupings; methods of economic, statistical and expert analysis; graphic image method. The study yielded the following scientific results, which are characterized by scientific innovation: further development of the methodological approach to the development of the project of production diversification at the enterprise, the sequence of which is slightly different from the standard methodology in the number of stages and takes into account the peculiarities of the meat-processing plant; the approach to the formation of the product portfolio of JSC «Melitopol meat-packing plant» is proposed, which provides an assessment of the risk of profit loss for each product type and the degree of correlation between them, which can be used in the development of a production diversification project. The results of the research on the implementation of production diversification projects can be put into practice in the work of production enterprises, in particular JSC «Melitopol meat-packing plant». The practical implementation of the recommendations proposed by the author will improve the financial results of the activity and increase the competitiveness according to the chosen diversification direction in the long run.

Bibliographic Record JÍLEK, Jiří. European Real Estate Investment Trusts: Analyzing Correlation with a DCC- GARCH Model. Prague, 2012. 50 p. Master thesis (Mgr.) Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies. Supervisor: Tomáš Jandík MA MSc MRICS. Abstract The main goal of this thesis is to study the interdependencies between returns of European real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other investment asset classes such as European equities, government bonds and commodities. The thesis is divided into two parts: in the first part, we describe the necessary background that led to the emergence of first REIT structures and also provide an overview of the European REITs market. In the second part, we apply the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model to examine correlations between the above mentioned asset classes. The general understanding of real estate is that it provides diversification benefits to a diversified portfolio. However, our results suggest that returns of European REITs and stocks show a relatively high correlation and more importantly, the correlation increases in time. These findings have significant implications for investors and portfolio managers who seek protection for their portfolios in time of market downturns. Our results...

The objective of this dissertation is two-fold. The first objective is to examine whether one can use implied information (implied volatility and implied correlations) from the options market to improve the out-of-sample performance of an all-stock optimized portfolio. Portfolio performance is measured using three metrics, namely, returns, volatility, and the Sharpe Ratio. The second objective is to examine the risk metrics of the portfolios to analyze whether a portfolio created using option-implied information is better at predicting risk than one using a conventional sample covariance matrix. This is done by calculating the portfolios VaR using a variety of methodologies. Empirically, this dissertation finds that the use of option-implied volatility when estimating the covariance matrix was able to increase the Sharpe Ratio of both constrained and unconstrained portfolios. There was no improvement to performance when option-implied correlation was added to the optimization process, thus the primary mechanism for improving performance was the ability to predict asset volatility. The risk management aspect of the dissertation provides two interesting findings. It finds that the use of a covariance matrix using option implied information is better at estimating hit rates than the sample covariance matrix. Also, there is evidence that the use of option implied information in the portfolio selection process reduces tail risk.<br>O objetivo desta dissertação é duplo. O primeiro objetivo é examinar se é possível usar informações implícitas (volatilidade implícita e correlações implícitas) do mercado de opções para melhorar o desempenho fora da amostra de uma carteira otimizada com todas as ações. O desempenho da carteira é medido usando três métricas, a saber, retornos, volatilidade e o Índice de Sharpe. O segundo objetivo é examinar as métricas de risco dos portfólios para analisar se um portfólio criado usando informações implícitas de opções é melhor na previsão de risco do que um usando uma matriz de covariância de amostra convencional. Isso é feito calculando o VaR das carteiras usando uma variedade de metodologias. Empiricamente, este artigo conclui que o uso da volatilidade implícita na opção ao estimar a matriz de covariância foi capaz de aumentar o índice de Sharpe de carteiras restritas e irrestritas. Não houve melhoria no desempenho quando a correlação implícita na opção foi adicionada ao processo de otimização, portanto, o mecanismo principal para melhorar o desempenho foi a capacidade de prever a volatilidade do ativo. O aspecto de gerenciamento de risco da dissertação fornece duas descobertas interessantes. Ele descobre que o uso de uma matriz de covariância usando informações implícitas de opções é melhor para estimar as taxas de acerto do que a matriz de covariância de amostra. Além disso, há evidências de que o uso de informações implícitas nas opções no processo de seleção da carteira reduz o risco de cauda.