Academic literature on the topic 'Cost manner'

There are a number of different costs associated with the development and operation of telemedicine services. A model is proposed in order to assist in strengthening the evidence base for telemedicine. It includes the following components: project establishment costs; equipment costs; maintenance costs; communication costs; staffing costs. All need to be considered in arriving at an annual cost figure for operating a telemedicine service. The inclusion of all these costs, prepared in the standard manner outlined in the model, will ensure that a realistic cost figure is available when evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a telemedicine service.

In cloud manufacturing, customers register customized requirements, and manufacturers provide appropriate services to complete the task. A cloud manufacturing manager establishes manufacturing schedules that determine the service provision time in a real-time manner as the requirements are registered in real time. In addition, customer satisfaction is affected by various measures such as cost, quality, tardiness, and reliability. Thus, multiobjective and real-time scheduling of tasks is important to operate cloud manufacturing effectively. In this paper, we establish a mathematical model to minimize tardiness, cost, quality, and reliability. Additionally, we propose an approach to solve the mathematical model in a real-time manner using a multiobjective genetic algorithm that includes chromosome representation, fitness function, and genetic operators. From the experimental results, we verify whether the proposed approach is effective and efficient.

Introduction:Disaster Medicine training in most parts of the world is done in a practical manner to allow users to practice the skills of triage and resource allocation.Aim:To develop a low-cost tabletop simulation and measure its effectiveness from the user perspective.Methods:A modified Delphi approach was used in developing a low-cost tabletop simulation exercise. Simple playing cards were used as patients with specific vitals and injuries. Two Hundred trainees of the National Ambulance Service were used to test the exercise. All the participants had an equal chance to triage a patient and arrange transport to an appropriate facility.Results:All participants expressed their satisfaction in the design and implementation of the tabletop exercise. Over 90% showed interest in replicating the exercise in their respective setting due to the low-cost nature of the setup. During the exercise6. 0% of the patients were triaged correctly, while 80% were transported from the scene in an orderly manner. All the participants agreed on the useful and educational value of the exercise.Discussion:The use of a low-cost tabletop exercise in disaster medicine training is essential for low- and middle-income countries to promote education, and has been shown to be acceptable and feasible.

The introductory part of the thesis deals with the overall issue of valuation, explaining the basic concepts that are necessary for the valuation. Then followed the analysis of market with the real estates and characteristic description of the specified location. For the purposes of the valuation was selected 10 real estates of type garage, which are valued at cost and comparative manner according to the announcement and comparative manner with the database. The real estates were selected around the city Protivin. A local investigation was carried out and the documentation was made for the each garage. The acquired data are evaluated and the result describes the effect of the location on the price of the property.

This diploma thesis concerns in the assessment of the impact on the price of newly built houses in part of Kraj Vysočina. In the first theoretical part of thesis are describe basic terms of the assessing, which are use in second practical part. Second part discusses pricing family houses with cost approach, comparative manner according to the regulation and direct comparative. This prices are after that recalculate to unit prices and evaluated.

This diploma thesis concerns in the assessment of the impact on the price of newly built houses in part of Královohradeckého kraje. In the first theoretical part of thesis are describe basic terms of the assessing, which are use in second practical part. Second part discusses pricing family houses with cost approach, comparative manner according to the regulation and direct comparative. This prices are after that recalculate to unit prices and evaluated.

Cost overrun is prevalent in the construction industry. Usually, an owner sets a budget at the preliminary phase of a project which changes over time. Past studies are focused on analyzing the cost growth of design-bid-build projects during construction. Limited efforts have been made to analyze details of projects delivered with the Construction Manager General Contractor (CM/GC) method. This study tracks and analyzes the construction cost variation of a project from the conceptual phase to the design completion phase. The analysis is presented with a case study of a new stadium construction project. It identifies that the changes in the scope and design of the project due to the change in available budget were a major reason for variation in the cost estimates over time. Further, this study identifies a) trades with the highest variation in subcontractors’ bids, b) trades that were most overestimated, and c) trades that were most underestimated. The findings of this study is expected to aid owners, designers, and contractors of future projects in improving the preparation, planning, and estimating of future projects; reducing cost variation within trades; and optimizing the amount of contingency required to ensure the successful completion of similar projects.

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Cost estimation of computer software development is a critical problem for the Department of Defense. The acquisition of major weapons or hardware has been impacted cost overruns and schedule slippage in software development. Program managers are responsible for estimating a program's using the information provided by the contractor and the cost analysis divisions within the System Commands. This study first analyzes why variance exists between the different estimates for the same software project that are provided to the Program Manager as input to the budget estimate. This study then examines four methods that are used to understand and reduce the variance between the estimates to give the Program Manager more control over the software development cost estimation process. A set of five specific decision rules is developed for the Program Manager to implement in the cost estimation process. The intent of the study is to improve the accuracy of the cost estimate by reducing variance between the independently generated estimate submitted to the Program Manager.

Following Bourdieu (1977) and alluding to the work of Toren (1990,1993a, 1999) and Lave (1991) this thesis supports the argument that learning, understood as a participative, historical and generative process, is intrinsic to all social practice and furthermore that all social practice substantiates human mind. It follows therefore that mind is a learning phenomenon and that it makes no sense, for example, to isolate didactic practice from the wider social situations in which children learn. The thesis argues that the form participative learning takes is that of an increasingly differentiated competence with respect to complex relations of exchange in objects, bodily actions and language. It is shown how, through particular exchange relations, the value of persons, practices and things is created and transformed as an ongoing and mutually specifying material process. Taking both childhood and the practice of ethnography as examples of legitimate peripheral participation (Lave 1991) the thesis aims towards a phenomenological description of what it means to become working class in Bermondsey, South East London. Responding to a multicultural political climate in which claims are made that the working class no longer exists, the thesis addresses the popular backlash in which white working class people demand that their social values are recognised and protected. What matters in Bermondsey, for example, is that class relations are to be understood ethnographically as the difference between common and posh people and that this distinction is articulated with whether or not a person was born and bred in Bermondsey. This means that specific ideas about kinship relations and place, understood as particular forms of materiality, mediate the development in Bermondsey of the kind of persons people can become. The chapters that follow will describe the social processes through which Bermondsey people reproduce (Narotzky 1997) the idea of themselves as a distinctive community.

Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2007.
Thesis Advisor(s): Jacobs, Patricia A. ; Gaver, Donald P. "December 2007." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 18, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (p. 139-140). Also available in print.

The World Bank’s mission has important environmental and social implications. These issues are of acute concern to our shareholders, as well as to civil society in both developed and developing countries. We believe that the World Bank now has moved significantly towards procedures and expertise to address environmental dimensions of its work. However, we are very concerned at the slow progress in establishing equivalent strengths in social analysis, which is essential to the Bank’s objective of reducing poverty in an equitable and cost-effective manner.

AbstractTo ensure a high availability, communication networks provide resilient routing mechanisms that quickly change routes upon failures. However, a fundamental algorithmic question underlying such mechanisms is hardly understood: how to verify whether a given network reroutes flows along feasible paths, without violating capacity constraints, for up to k link failures? We chart the algorithmic complexity landscape of resilient routing under link failures, considering shortest path routing based on link weights as e.g. deployed in the ECMP protocol. We study two models: a pessimistic model where flows interfere in a worst-case manner along equal-cost shortest paths, and an optimistic model where flows are routed in a best-case manner, and we present a complete picture of the algorithmic complexities. We further propose a strategic search algorithm that checks only the critical failure scenarios while still providing correctness guarantees. Our experimental evaluation on a benchmark of Internet and datacenter topologies confirms an improved performance of our strategic search by several orders of magnitude.

AbstractMagnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an emerging method to obtain valuable functional and structural information about the kidney noninvasively. Before performing specialized MR measurements for probing tissue structure and function, some essential practical steps are needed, which are common for most applications. Here we describe in a step-by-step manner how to (1) achieve the double-oblique slice orientation coronal-to-the-kidney, (2) adapt the scan protocol for avoiding aortic flow artifacts and covering both kidneys, (3) perform localized shimming on the kidney, and (4) check perfusion in the large renal blood vessels using time-of-flight (TOF) angiography. The procedures are tailored to preclinical MRI but conceptionally are also applicable to human MRI.This chapter is based upon work from the COST Action PARENCHIMA, a community-driven network funded by the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) program of the European Union, which aims to improve the reproducibility and standardization of renal MRI biomarkers. This experimental protocol chapter explains the initial and essential MRI steps that precede specific functional and structural MR imaging techniques (T1- and T2*-mapping, DWI, ASL, etc.), which are described in separate chapters.

For many projects, resources are always limited. Hence, there is often a need to allocate resources in a most cost-effective manner. There are some cost models developed as guidelines on how to estimate the costs of digitalization and preservation of information in a comparatively more accurate way. By knowing the factors which affecting those costs, it will be easier to find a cost-effective strategy for digital preservation. Among different migration strategies proposed by researchers, in this article the migration in the framework of Open Archival Information System (OAIS) will be studied. This is applied to the case of this small-scale music library, Melos Music Library in El Parnaso Centre in Uruguay.

This chapter explains how you can use level-dependent social welfare functions (SWFs) to evaluate health distributions in a manner that is founded on explicit, challengeable, and consistent ethical principles. A level-dependent social welfare function (SWF) weights health gains for one person or group relative to another as a function of their absolute health levels. By contrast, a rank-dependent SWF weights health gains for one person or group relative to another as a function of their health ranks in the wider population. A level-dependent SWF is also called a prioritarian SWF. The basic prioritarian principle is a specific value judgment giving priority to the worse-off based on their absolute level of health. The aim of this chapter is to describe level-dependent SWFs and how they can be used to conduct equity-efficiency trade-off analysis. A SWF can be consistent with many different sets of weights, which vary according to the chosen value of an equity parameter. We show how level-dependent equity parameters can be used to perform a systematic sensitivity analysis of how different degrees of concern for the worse-off have different policy implications.

The primary contribution offered by this book chapter is that it presents a quantitative assessment of the effect of offering warranties on remanufactured items from a manufacturer's perspective in that it proposes an appealing price in the eyes of the buyer as well. While there are developmental studies on warranty policies for brand new products and a few on secondhand products, there exist limited studies that evaluate the potential benefits of warranties on remanufactured products in a quantitative and comprehensive manner. In these studies, the profit improvements achieved by the offering of warranties for different policies determine the range of how much money can be invested in a warranty while still keeping it profitable overall. This paper considers how to predict the effect of offering non-renewable one-dimensional warranty policies to disassembled components and sensor embedded remanufactured products and how to assess the impact of sensor embedded products on warranty cost.

Abstract Dioxin and dioxin-like substances represent a collection of a large number of widely dispersed environmental organic chlorinated chemicals, many of which are unusually toxic. These substances and many related non-chlorinated substances primarily arise from the high temperature burning of organic material such as that produced by waste incineration. Although these substances have been experimentally shown to be able to produce cancer and other serious toxicities, the evidence on their public health significance is still not clear, in considerable measure because the tests required for producing the data needed for public health assessment are so costly. With such inadequate information, the views of the scientific, regulatory, industry, and environmental citizens’ communities are often at odds. More cost-effective methods need to be developed so that this perceived public health problem can be given a proper assessment. The theoretical principles of relatively new methods, which are based on the biological activity of these chemicals, are presented. It will be shown that one such method, which is designed to screen samples which makes use of the central event of toxicity and which is much more cost-effective, possesses the theoretical capability of providing the type of information needed for better public health assessment.

The Amazon biome, despite its resilience, is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer possible. This is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. In this paper, we develop scenarios that represent movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of these scenarios using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with high resolution spatial land use land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEMESM). This papers main contributions are developing: (i) a framework for evaluating strategies to avert an Amazon tipping point based on their relative costs, benefits and trade-offs, and; (ii) a first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of movement towards an Amazon tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. We find that a conservative estimate of the cumulative regional cost through 2050 of an Amazon tipping point would be US$256.6 billion in Gross Domestic Product. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in climate-adapted agriculture, and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth. From a public investment perspective, the returns to implementing strategies for averting a tipping point would be US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can pave the way for evidence-based approaches to support policy action focusing on the design of regional strategies for the Amazon biome and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable their implementation.

Los modelos de equilibrio general computable (EGC) son sistemas de ecuaciones matemáticas que permiten describir una economía completa. Intensivos en datos, estos requieren que la información utilizada para resolver dichas ecuaciones esté organizada de manera particular que toma la forma de una Matriz de Contabilidad Social (MCS), la cual describe el flujo circular de transacciones entre agentes económicos para un periodo de referencia. En este documento se describe el procedimiento seguido para la construcción de una MCS para Costa Rica para el año 2016, la cual utiliza, tanto los Cuadros de Oferta y Utilización, como las Cuentas Económicas Integradas más recientes del Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales del Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) como fuente principal de datos. La MCS resultante identifica 139 actividades y 183 productos. Además de detallar los pasos tradicionales para la construcción de este tipo de matrices, este documento constituye una contribución importante al estado de la ciencia en Latinoamérica al proveer una descripción detallada de todos los ajustes necesarios para desagregar actividades económicas, productos y factores productivos. A pesar de que la MCS aquí descrita ha sido desarrollada para ser utilizada con la Plataforma de Modelado Económico Ambiental Integrada (IEEM), puede ser utilizada para calibrar cualquier modelo de EGC.

Los administradores del agua enfrentan desafíos cada vez mayores para satisfacer la demanda de agua, que depende de condiciones socioeconómicas y climáticas. La evolución de estas condiciones en las próximas décadas es profundamente incierta e impredecible. El presente estudio demuestra la utilidad del enfoque de Toma de Decisiones Robustas (RDM por sus siglas en ingles), un método de toma de decisión bajo incertidumbre profunda, para evaluar la vulnerabilidad y las oportunidades de adaptación de la gestión de los recursos hídricos en Mendoza, Argentina. El análisis confirma que el sistema actual de agua de Mendoza es vulnerable a los cambios en el uso de suelo y a los impactos del cambio climático. En casi 900 futuros analizados, la demanda insatisfecha crece significativamente durante los períodos de sequía, un problema que empeora con el tiempo. La mayoría de la demanda insatisfecha se produce en el sector agrícola, con carencias que superan el 35 por ciento en algunos años y futuros. Se analizó la vulnerabilidad de las cuencas de Tulumaya y Costa de Araujo en particular, dos áreas de riego aguas abajo que exhiben una alta demanda insatisfecha en muchos futuros, y del sector agrícola en su conjunto. Tres tipos de futuros conducirían a una alta demanda insatisfecha: 1. Crecimiento económico rápido, excepto si las precipitaciones aumentan mucho; 2. Urbanización tendencial bajo condiciones climáticas medianas o secas; o 3. Urbanización acelerada bajo condiciones secas y un aumento de la temperatura pronunciado. Se evaluaron diferentes estrategias para reducir estas vulnerabilidades: i) construcción de pocos reservorios grandes; ii) de una serie de reservorios más pequeños; iii) e inversiones en riego presurizado. Este es el primer ejercicio de comparación de estas tres opciones bajo incertidumbres climáticas y de uso del suelo. Los resultados demuestran que el aumento del almacenamiento, a través de uno o unos pocos reservorios grandes o una red de reservorios pequeños, no mitigaría significativamente estas vulnerabilidades y sería extremadamente costoso. Las inversiones en riego presurizado podrían reducir las vulnerabilidades de manera más significativa. Este análisis podría ser fortalecido mediante iteraciones adicionales del enfoque RDM, que incorpore las demandas de agua urbana de manera más representativa, así como un mejor reflejo de la temporalidad de regulación de los reservorios, y una mejor representatividad de escenarios climáticos extremos.

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Durante el segundo trimestre de 2021 la economía de la región Caribe registró un aumento anual respecto al mismo periodo del año anterior, y mejoró de manera importante el ritmo de crecimiento previo de los indicadores analizados, esto como resultado de la baja base de comparación y de la reactivación económica. Se destacó el avance en transporte, construcción, comercio, tanto interno como externo, e industria; en menor medida lo hicieron el sector financiero y el agropecuario. Este buen desempeño incidió de forma positiva en el mercado laboral, y el índice general de precios regional se mantuvo por debajo de la meta de inflación