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1
Shen, Zhihua. "Cost: a possible explanation for risk premium?" Thesis, Montana State University, 1995. http://etd.lib.montana.edu/etd/1995/shen/ShenZ1995.pdf.
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Transaction costs, information costs and defaults costs are suspected to partially explain differences in returns which were previously attributed to risk premiums in the financial markets. Two portfolios with identical costs are constructed from a Put, a Call, and underlying S&P 500 stocks, with the first Portfolio being hedged (Put-Call Parity) and the second Portfolio being unhedged (with systematic beta close to 2). The expected stock prices of S&P 500 were calculated based on 52-year historical data using several methods, and returns of the two portfolios were obtained and compared, using 935 observations of S&P 500 from January 2, 1992 through June 30, 1992. A linear regression model adjusted for cross-sectional heteroskedasticity and auto-correlation was used to estimate the expected risk premium rate. Transaction, information and default costs were statistically significant and estimated at 0.6% of value annually. These costs reduce the risk premium estimated by the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
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Omar, Sadek A. Thomas Randolph. "Identifying the risk in cost reimbursable contracts." [University Park, Pa.] : Pennsylvania State University, 2009. http://etda.libraries.psu.edu/theses/approved/WorldWideIndex/ETD-4843/index.html.
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Ren, Hong. "Risk management in construction cost and inflation." Thesis, University of Reading, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.332040.
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Aggarwal, Taroon. "Prediction markets for cost and risk assessment." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/67211.
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Thesis (S.M. in Engineering and Management)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, System Design and Management Program, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 95-99).
Several temporal and political factors can sometimes limit the effectiveness of traditional methods of project tracking and cost estimation. A large organization is susceptible to internal and external risks that are difficult to predict by a single person. Use of collective intelligence tools can help gather inputs from a crowd of people and help provide insight into future events with their collective wisdom. A prediction market is one such tool that provides an environment for traders to buy and sell contracts, whose values are tied to uncertain future events. Efficient prediction markets have been shown to outperform available polls and other forecasting mechanisms. This thesis focuses mainly on the features of a prediction market, its use in the context of a large organization and the steps needed for its implementation. We believe that prediction markets can be a useful supplementary tool along with the existing cost estimation and project management tools in a large organization. They can help aggregate information and identify any direct or indirect factors that can impact cost, or schedule estimates, or create risk for the completion of a project. Major design principles for implementation of prediction markets have been identified by the author based on seven mini case studies from different industries. The author also conducted three pilot studies at MIT and the observations from these have been used to identify best practices related to design and implementations of markets. We found increased involvement of participants and increased awareness in the projects to be one of the major benefits of prediction markets. From the case studies, research and data collected from simulations, we found positive evidence that prediction markets can supplement the use of current estimation and risk assessment methodologies when deployed correctly, and help keep a check on the pulse of an organization by preparing it for any future events or outcomes.
by Taroon Aggarwal.
S.M.in Engineering and Management
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Yeager, Elizabeth Anne. "Impact of risk on cost and revenue efficiencies." Diss., Kansas State University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/13161.
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Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Agricultural Economics
Michael Langemeier
This study focused on the inclusion of risk in efficiency measures to determine its impact on traditional efficiency scores. Previous research and theory suggests efficiency scores will be lower under risk and for risk averse individuals. Risk aversion may deter use of new production technologies and production levels may not be as high as under other risk preferences. Two data sets were used in the analysis. A panel data set of 256 farms from 1993-2010 was used to address the impact of risk measured as variability in outputs and downside risk on efficiency. A separate data set of 258 farms for 2008 was used with a corresponding risk preference score to determine the impact of risk preference on efficiency. The risk preference scores in the sample ranged from 5 to 86 where a smaller value represents stronger risk aversion. Data envelopment analysis was used to construct a nonparametric efficiency frontier and calculate cost- and revenue-based economic, overall, technical, allocative, and scale efficiency measures. Five inputs: labor, crop input, fuel, livestock input, and capital; and two outputs: crops and livestock were used in the analysis. The results focused on cost- and revenue-based economic efficiency. They showed that risk did affect average efficiency scores and is necessary to include in efficiency analysis. The average cost efficiency without risk was 0.6763. It increased to 0.7200 and 0.7018 respectively when cost efficiency was adjusted to recognize variability in outputs and downside risk. The average portion of cost inefficiency explained by variability in outputs was 28.06 percent. Downside risk explained 22.66 percent of cost inefficiency. The average revenue efficiency without risk was 0.7611 and increased to 0.8372 and 0.7811 when revenue efficiency was adjusted for variability in outputs and downside risk, respectively. Variability in outputs explained 42.53 percent and downside risk explained 30.58 percent of revenue inefficiency. The average cost efficiency for the 258 farms was 0.5691 and increased to 0.6043 with the consideration of risk preference scores. The average revenue efficiency was 0.6735 and increased to 0.6987 with risk preference scores. The efficient farms varied across cost and revenue efficiency, and the risk measures used. This lends support to the use of both input-oriented (cost) and output-oriented (revenue) efficiency measures as well as the use of multiple measures of risk.
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Hercock, Carol Ann. "Specialisation for fast locomotion : performance, cost and risk." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2010. http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3453/.
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The racing Greyhound presents us with an opportunity to study the characteristics of a successful athlete and the costs and risks such specialisation entails. This thesis investigates the nature of the injuries suffered by racing Greyhounds and how adaptation of the musculoskeletal system to the unique pattern of stresses encountered during racing and training might impact upon the risk of injury. Racing Greyhounds sustain a number of musculoskeletal injuries. Several of these, notably fatigue fractures of distal limb bones, are very similar to those seen in human athletes and military recruits (Armstrong et al. 2004; Beck et al. 2000; Brukner et al. 1996; Kowal 1980; Matheson et al. 1987). The most common, often leading to the dog being euthanatised, is fracture of the right tarsus. Evaluation of tarsal fractures via radiography alone frequently resulted in an underestimation of the severity of the injuries, whereas the use of computed tomography provided a more detailed, accurate assessment. Evidence of asymmetric bone remodelling was found in the distal limb bones of racing Greyhounds. Rail‐side bones had significantly higher bone density and increased levels of bone resorption and formation markers compared to contralateral bones. Greyhound bones also have regional differences in trabecular architecture. In contrast, Staffordshire Bull Terrier (SBT) bones did not show these differences. Additionally, Greyhound distal limb tendons appear well adapted to withstand the high stresses of racing; they are stronger, stiffer, and in the pelvic limbs, return more elastic strain energy than the corresponding SBT tendons. Greyhounds had left‐to‐right asymmetries in the tensile properties of their pelvic limb tendons, which SBTs did not. SBTs are not bred for racing and are unlikely to encounter asymmetric stresses. Therefore, the adaptive changes observed in the Greyhound bones and tendons appear to result from the asymmetric stresses encountered by the Greyhounds during racing around ovoid tracks.
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Viduto, Valentina. "A risk assessment and optimisation model for minimising network security risk and cost." Thesis, University of Bedfordshire, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10547/270440.
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Network security risk analysis has received great attention within the scientific community, due to the current proliferation of network attacks and threats. Although, considerable effort has been placed on improving security best practices, insufficient effort has been expanded on seeking to understand the relationship between risk-related variables and objectives related to cost-effective network security decisions. This thesis seeks to improve the body of knowledge focusing on the trade-offs between financial costs and risk while analysing the impact an identified vulnerability may have on confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). Both security best practices and risk assessment methodologies have been extensively investigated to give a clear picture of the main limitations in the area of risk analysis. The work begins by analysing information visualisation techniques, which are used to build attack scenarios and identify additional threats and vulnerabilities. Special attention is paid to attack graphs, which have been used as a base to design a novel visualisation technique, referred to as an Onion Skin Layered Technique (OSLT), used to improve system knowledge as well as for threat identification. By analysing a list of threats and vulnerabilities during the first risk assessment stages, the work focuses on the development of a novel Risk Assessment and Optimisation Model (RAOM), which expands the knowledge of risk analysis by formulating a multi-objective optimisation problem, where objectives such as cost and risk are to be minimised. The optimisation routine is developed so as to accommodate conflicting objectives and to provide the human decision maker with an optimum solution set. The aim is to minimise the cost of security countermeasures without increasing the risk of a vulnerability being exploited by a threat and resulting in some impact on CIA. Due to the multi-objective nature of the problem a performance comparison between multi-objective Tabu Search (MOTS) Methods, Exhaustive Search and a multi-objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) has been also carried out. Finally, extensive experimentation has been carried out with both artificial and real world problem data (taken from the case study) to show that the method is capable of delivering solutions for real world problem data sets.
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Saunders, Brian J. "A Total Cost Approach to Supply Chain Risk Modeling." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2011. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/3179.
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The modern supply chain is long, complex, interconnected and global, and plays a fundamental role in business competitiveness. These conditions, along with various supply chain management trends in recent years have increased risks in supply chains which threaten supply chain performance. Greater impact, especially on cost, from an increased threat of supply disruptions is one area of particular concern. Companies today are struggling to find effective means to manage this increased risk and avoid adverse financial impacts. An approach to managing supply disruption risk in supply chains based on the minimization of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the supply chain is explored in this thesis. Insights are provided into an appropriate view of supply chain risk and a general four step risk management process to guide the design and evaluation of a new risk management tool based on such an approach. A prototype of the new total cost-based, modeling and simulation tool was created in partnership with ProModel Corporation and a government contractor that requested to remain anonymous. A preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of this tool in minimizing TCO and providing an interface useable by non-modelers is provided. This study also reviews and compares a sample set of current supply chain risk management methods and tools and compares them with the new tool for relevance in aiding users in managing supply disruption risk. Based on literature findings and preliminary feedback from pilot contextual demonstrations of the tool, the total cost approach to risk modeling appears promising, although the execution needs to be improved with further enhancements made to the prototype tool. In this preliminary study and evaluation, sufficient evidence is not available to determine that the new prototype tool is any more effective than other currently available risk management tools to provide necessary information to make supply chain risk management decisions that minimize TCO of a supply chain. Suggestions for further development of the tool, especially for improvement of the total cost approach, are provided as well as a preliminary evaluation procedure and survey instruments for a more robust evaluation of the new tool.
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Papin, Timothée. "Pricing of Corporate Loan : Credit Risk and Liquidity cost." Phd thesis, Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00937278.
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This PhD thesis investigates the pricing of a corporate loan according to the credit risk, the liquidity cost and the embedded prepayment option. A loan contract issued by a bank for its corporate clients is a financial agreement that often comes with more flexibility than a retail loan contract. These options are designed to meet clients' expectations and can include e.g., a prepayment option (which entitles the client, if he desires so, to pay all or a fraction of its loan earlier than the maturity). The prepayment is the main option and it will be study in this thesis. In order to decide whether the exercise of the option is worthwhile the borrower compares the remaining payments with the outstanding amount of the loan. If the remaining payments exceed the nominal value then it is optimal for the borrower to refinance his debt at a lower rate. For a bank, the prepayment option is essentially a reinvestment risk, i.e. the risk that the borrower decides to repay earlier his/her loan and that the bank cannot reinvest his/her excess of cash in a new loan with same characteristics.The valuation problem of the prepayment option can be modelled as an embedded compound American option on a risky debt owned by the borrower. We choose in this thesis to price a loan and its prepayment option by resolving the associated PDE instead of binomial trees (time-consuming) or Monte Carlo techniques (slow to converge).
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Brau, Rojas Agustin. "Controlled Markov chains with risk-sensitive average cost criterion." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/284004.
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Discrete controlled Markov chains with finite action space and bounded cost per stage are studied in this dissertation. The performance index function, the exponential average cost (EAC), models risk-sensitivity by means of an exponential (dis)utility function. First, for the finite state space model, the EAC corresponding to a fixed stationary (deterministic) policy is characterized in terms of the spectral radii of matrices associated to irreducible communicating classes of both recurrent and transient states. This result generalizes a well known theorem of Howard and Matheson, which treats the particular case in which the Markov cost chain has only one dosed class of states. Then, it is shown that under strong recurrence conditions, the risk-sensitive model approaches the risk-null model when the risk-sensitivity coefficient is small. However, it is proved and also illustrated by means of examples, that in general, fundamental differences arise between both models, e.g., the EAC may depend on the cost structure at the transient states. In particular, the behavior of the EAC for large risk-sensitivity is also analyzed. After showing that an exponential average optimality equation holds for the countable state space model, a proof of the existence of solutions to that equation for the finite model under a simultaneous Doeblin condition is provided, which is simpler than that given in recent work of Cavazos-Cadena and Fernandez-Gaucherand. The adverse impact of "large risk-sensitivity" on recently obtained conditions for the existence of solutions to an optimality inequality is illustrated by means of an example. Finally, a counterexample is included to show that, unlike previous results for finite models, a controlled Markov chain with infinite state space may not have ultimately stationary optimal policies in the risk-sensitive (exponential) discounted cost case, in general. Moreover, a simultaneous Doeblin condition is satisfied in our example, an assumption that enables the vanishing discount approach in the risk-null case, thus further suggesting that more restrictive conditions than those commonly used in the risk neutral context are needed to develop the mentioned approach for risk-sensitive criteria.
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Berg, Florian. "Extra-Financial Risk Factors and the Cost of Debt." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PSLED030/document.
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Cette thèse a pour ambition d’analyser si la performance environnementale, sociale et de gouvernance (ESG) est intégrée par les marchés de la dette d'entreprise et souveraine. Le premier chapitre se concentre sur les informations ESG publiés à contenu négatif et leur impact négatif sur le coût de la dette. Plus exactement, dans les secteurs industriels et utilitaires les événements négatifs sociaux et de gouvernance font augmenter le coût de la dette. Également, un bon niveau général de performance ESG agit comme un mécanisme d'assurance contre ces événements négatifs. Dans un deuxième chapitre seront présentés les résultats d’une simulation de portefeuille intégrant la performance ESG d'entreprise. Un gérant de portefeuille peut améliorer le niveau agrégé de la performance ESG du portefeuille de 1,5 écart-type sans faire baisser la performance financière. Ainsi, le gérant peut combiner cette intégration avec des stratégies d'allocation d'actif financiers ou des stratégies de rendement absolu. Dans un troisième chapitre les résultats sur la réduction du coût de la dette dû à une bonne performance environnementale et sociale de souverains émergents seront analysés. Enfin dans le quatrième chapitre je décris comment la performance de gouvernance des souverains influence la différence entre le yield émis en devise étrangère et celui émis en devise locale. Dans les pays développés cette différence augmente avec le risque politique, i.e. le yield étranger augmente plus rapidement que le yield domestique. Dans les pays émergents, c'est l’effet inverse qui est observé. Cette différence entre les deux yields varie plus fortement avec un taux croissant de la dette domestique détenue par des investisseurs étrangersThis thesis analyzes if and to what extent debt markets value the environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance of firms and sovereigns. The first chapter shows that negative ESG news has a negative impact on the cost of debt of firms. The news relates to environmental and social events within the industrial/utilities sector. In this sector, a sound corporate social performance acts as an insurance against the adverse impact of negative environmental events on bond prices. The second chapter reveals that ESG scores integrated into portfolios do not change the financial performance ex post. A portfolio manager can increase the average ESG rating of her portfolio by 1.5 standard deviations without incurring cost. This leaves substantial room and opportunity for ESG ratings to be combined with asset allocation or absolute return strategies. The third chapter shows how ESG performance is linked to a lower cost of debt of emerging sovereigns. Research indicates that an emerging country’s average cost of capital decreases with its positive environmental and social performance. The fourth chapter discusses how governance performance may influence the spread of debt denominated in local and foreign currency. In developed countries, the spread between a foreign currency yield and a hedged local currency yield increases with our political risk indicator, i.e. the foreign yield increases faster than the domestic one. For emerging countries, the reverse trend is true. Interestingly, the foreign currency and local currency yield spreads move significantly stronger in absolute terms with increasing foreign investment participation in both emerging countries and developed countries’ debt markets
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Khan, Lutfor Rahman. "Reliability estimation and risk-cost optimisation of underground pipelines." Thesis, University of Greenwich, 2014. http://gala.gre.ac.uk/12597/.
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The safety of infrastructure facilities is the primary objective of any civil engineering design. A large section of underground pipelines in the UK are classified as structurally deficient and functionally obsolete. Due to low visibility, condition assessment and rehabilitation of underground pipelines are frequently neglected until a catastrophic failure occurs. Providing an acceptable level of service and overcoming the practical difficulties, the concerned industry has to plan how to operate, maintain and renew (repair or replace) the pipeline systems under the budget constraints. This research is focused on estimating pipe reliability and deciding when and how interventions are needed to prevent unexpected failures of flexible underground metal pipelines subject to externally applied loadings and pipe material corrosion during the whole service life at the optimal cost. The time-dependent reliability due to corrosion induced excessive deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending has been estimated. First, Hassofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler (HL-RF) algorithm and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) have been used to estimate the reliability. Then Subset Simulation (SS) method is developed to enhance the applicability, especially for small failure probability prediction. Accuracy prediction method, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve has been introduced in this research to assess the accuracy of pipeline reliability analysis. Then the study has been extended to determine the intervention year for maintenance and identify the most appropriate renewal solution by optimising the risk of failure and life cycle cost, including carbon dioxide emissions mitigation cost, using Genetic Algorithm (GA). Optimisation technique, SS has also been developed for risk-cost optimisation of underground pipelines. Examples are presented to validate the proposed methods with a view to prevent unexpected failure of pipes by prioritising maintenance based on failure severity and system reliability. The proposed reliability estimation and risk-cost optimisation approach can be utilised to form a maintenance strategy and to avoid unexpected failure of pipeline networks during service life.
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Poh, Yan Ping. "Knowledge-based integrated project duration-cost risk simulation model." Thesis, London South Bank University, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.435204.
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Quantitative risk analysis is an essential part of a systematic project risk management process. Although numerous techniques, either conventional or ad hoc, are available, quantitative risk analysis is not commonly implemented in the construction industry. A literature review has led to the identification of critical shortcomings in available quantitative techniques. Usually, project risk information is vague and incomplete, and is available qualitatively. Many existing techniques adopt statistical and probabilistic approaches. Though it is possible to convert qualitative risk information to subjective statistical inputs, practitioners often lack the knowledge to do so. In addition, certain statistical techniques are developed using the risk data of specific types of works, and hence, their areas of application are limited. Another limitation of conventional techniques is duration and cost risks are analysed separately although both measures are correlated. The exclusion of the correlation in the analysis affects the accuracy of the results. Factor-based risk analysis techniques have been developed in the past to promote an in-depth understanding of the root causes of project poor performance. However, they do not provide a means to understand the nature of risks, which can help handling risk impacts more effectively. Furthermore, many developed factor-based techniques limit the number of risk factors to be analysed. Since every construction project is unique, certain excluded risk factors may be crucial in some projects. Risk management often involves intuitive judgements. Hence, a knowledge-based risk analysis technique, which can capture users' intuitions about risk impacts, is viewed as an added advantage for promoting the application of quantitative risk analysis. This research aims at developing a risk simulation model that addresses the abovementioned shortcomings of existing techniques. An influence network has been developed to integrate the parameters that determine the duration and cost of a construction task. Mathematical equations representing the dependencies among the parameters have been formulated. The generic structure of the integrated network can explicitly model risk impacts on any type of construction tasks, and hence, it is adopted as the core for risk simulation in this research. A novel risk assessment approach that assesses risk factors against the duration and cost parameters has been developed. Fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic has been applied for enabling linguistic risk assessment and evaluation. This approach can systematically capture the nature of risks, and reflect it in the simulation. A knowledge-based risk aggregation algorithm for computing the combined risk effects on the duration and cost parameters has been developed by extracting and exploiting the algorithms in fuzzy sets theory and fuzzy logic, and artificial neural networks. The algorithm can be applied to different combinations of risk factors, and the parameter values in it can be modified for effectively representing different assumptions of risk impacts. Work has also been undertaken to develop mathematical equations for propagating the risk effects on the parameters through the influence network, and for quantifying the risk-adjusted duration and cost. In the risk simulation, Monte Carlo simulation is incorporated to generate different scenarios of risk-adjusted outcomes. A prototype system has been developed using Microsoft (MS) Excel VBA for demonstrating the risk simulation model developed. The prototype system has been tested using a real-world bridge construction project that involves various types of construction activities and resources. The outputs have shown that the developed risk simulation model has huge potential in improving the quantitative risk analysis process, and hence, makes contribution to knowledge in this area.
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Gurcihan, Burcu H. "Risk Analysis Of The Government Domestic Debt Stock In Turkey: Cost-at-risk Approach." Master's thesis, METU, 2004. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12605677/index.pdf.
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In this study, stochastic simulation based risk analysis is applied to the government
domestic debt stock in Turkey with the motivation to identify the cost and risk
characteristics of alternative debt financing strategies. Future path of interest rates is
simulated by using the yield curve forecasting framework in Diebold and Li (2002),
which is founded on the Nelson-Siegel yield curve model. Yield curve simulation is
based on the estimated term structure of interest rates for the period June 2001-July
2004. Simulated yield curves are generally upward sloped and concave. Contrary to
the common observation, long-term yields are more volatile compared to short-term
yields. Under each financing strategy, debt is rolled over on top of simulated term
structure of interest rates. Alternative financing strategies are compared with respect
to absolute Cost-at-Risk, relative Cost-at-Risk and relative risk measures computed
from the simulated cost distributions. Results of the risk analysis are influenced by
the characteristics of the simulated term structure of interest rates and the additional
yield imposed on the coupon bonds, which is assumed to reflect risk perception of
investors for increased maturity.
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Hermansson, Hélène. "Rights at Risk : Ethical Issues in Risk Management." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Filosofi och teknikhistoria, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4570.
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he subject of this thesis is ethical aspects of decision-making concerning social risks. It is argued that a model for risk management must acknowledge several ethical aspects and, most crucial among these, the individual’s right not to be unfairly exposed to risks. Article I takes as its starting point the demand frequently expressed in the risk literature for consistent risk management. It is maintained that a model focusing on cost-benefit analysis does not respect the rights of the individual. Two alternative models are outlined. They evolve around the separateness of individuals, rights, and fair risk taking. It is claimed that a model that focuses on a fair procedure for risk decisions seems most fruitful to develop. Article II discusses the NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) conflict. The ethical premises behind the negative characterization of the NIMBY concept are investigated. It is argued that a collective weighing of risks and benefits ignores individuals’ rights not to be unfairly exposed to risks in siting scenarios. Article III presents a three-party model tool for ethical risk analysis. The focus in such analysis is a discussion of three parties that are involved in risk decisions: the risk-exposed, the beneficiary, and the decision-maker. Seven crucial ethical questions are discerned by combining these parties pairwise. Article IV discusses a model for procedural justice for risk decisions. Two theories of deliberative democracy are explored. The first focuses on a hypothetical contract, the second argues for the actual inclusion of affected parties. It is maintained that hypothetical reasoning should mainly serve as a guide concerning risk issues that affect people who cannot be included in the decision-making process. Otherwise an interactive dialogical reasoning is to be preferred. Article V explores the claim that there are no real, objective risks – only subjective descriptions of them. It is argued that even though every risk can be described in different ways, involve value judgements and emotions, the ideal of objectivity should not be abandoned.QC 20100714
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Alzahrani, Saleh. "Dynamic simulation of the impact of risk events and risk cost in KSA PPP projects." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2015. http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/2013619/.
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The majority of risk events in Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects are due to the complexity of these projects. It requires the best of risk allocation to the appropriate party that is able to manage and control the allocated risks in order to achieve best value for money. Many researchers stated that the influence of a risk might trigger another risk event. Sterman (1992) identified that large-scale projects are complex and they have extremely dynamic and interdependent risks and uncertainties over their life cycle. Williams (2002) also state that in a large scale construction project the risk generally interact with each other in a nonlinear manner over time. Investigating the interaction between risk factors can help to decrease uncertainties. Dey and Ogunlana (2004) state that there it is necessity to analyse the interactions between risk events in complex projects. In recent approaches to risk management in PPP projects, experts tend to consider risk factors as being independent and ignore the influence of interaction between risk events over the project life cycle. This undermines the effectiveness of project risk estimation. In this work, further investigation on the interaction between risk factors and their impact on the risk cost in PPP projects will be investigated in Saudi Arabia based on first hand data collected from practitioner working in the kingdom. A questionnaire was designed and sent to a representative set of 250 practitioners in the field of Saudi PPP projects. 68 practitioners completed and returned the questionnaire with a 27% response rate. The collected data was pre-processed, processed and analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Using this statistical tool, regression analysis was carried out to build the equation of impact of risk events in each risk category. After that, the BestFit software was used to find best probability distribution fit for each risk factor. In This study, a new modelling approach for mapping risks and analysing the impact of risk events interaction considering the best distribution fit for each risk factor is developed using System Dynamics (SD) techniques (VENSIM software). This proposed model can help to estimate outturn construction unit cost of PPP projects and risk cost that is influenced by risk events interaction. Based on comprehensive prototyping and validation, the proposed approach is found to be robust valid tool for addressing real impact of risk events and evaluating the expected risk cost, which can help to improve risk allocation in PPP projects.
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Salem, Ossama M. "Infrastructure construction and rehabilitation, risk-based life cycle cost analysis." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/nq39588.pdf.
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Eyers, Kevin. "Belief network analysis of direct cost risk in building construction." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/MQ58766.pdf.
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Minina, Vera. "The cost of risk and option hedging in incomplete markets." Enschede : University of Twente [Host], 2008. http://doc.utwente.nl/58406.
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Hooper, Seth T. "Enhancing the enhanced scenario-based method of cost risk analysis." Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/10622.
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The current S-Curve method of cost risk analysis for major DON acquisitions projects does not accurately estimate actual cost when the program reaches Full Rate Production. Another, sometimes more effective method of measuring cost risk, is by using the enhanced scenario-based method (eSBM) of risk analysis. The reason that cost estimations from the milestone B costs are inaccurate is that very little, if any, real information about the project is known. eSBM allows managers a less statistically tasking method of determining cost risk for a project while still maintaining the requirements of the Weapons System Acquisitions Reform Act. The key factors in measuring the usefulness of eSBM should be focused on the acquisition strategy being used for the project and the time frame from Milestone B to later Milestones. I presume that different acquisition strategies will yield different levels of success in estimating cost risk for eSBM.
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Singh, Alex. "A risk-transaction cost trade-off model for index tracking." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-143807.
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This master thesis considers and evaluates a few different risk models for stock portfolios, including an ordinary sample covariance matrix, factor models and an approach inspired from random matrix theory. The risk models are evaluated by simulating minimum variance portfolios and employing a cross-validation. The Bloomberg+ transaction cost model is investigated and used to optimize portfolios of stocks, with respect to a trade off between the active risk of the portfolio and transaction costs. Further a few different simulations are performed while using the optimizer to rebalance long-only portfolios. The optimization problem is solved using an active-set algorithm. A couple of approaches are shown that may be used to visually try to decide a value for the risk aversion parameter λ in the objective function of the optimization problem. The thesis concludes that there is a practical difference between the different risk models that are evaluated. The ordinary sample covariance matrix is shown to not perform as well as the other models. It also shows that more frequent rebalancing is preferable to less frequent. Further the thesis goes on to show a peculiar behavior of the optimization problem, which is that the optimizer does not rebalance all the way to 0 in simulations, even if enough time is provided, unless it is explicitly required by the constraints.
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Ball, Ryan T. Bushman Robert M. "Does anticipated information impose a cost on risk-averse investors?" Chapel Hill, N.C. : University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2008. http://dc.lib.unc.edu/u?/etd,2652.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2008.Title from electronic title page (viewed Oct. 5, 2009). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Kenan-Flagler Business School." Discipline: Business Administration; Department/School: Business School, Kenan-Flagler.
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Sunny, Iftekhar Zaman. "Long-term cost-effective trunk main discolouration risk management strategy." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2018. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/21368/.
Full textAbstract:
Material responsible for discolouration risk has been shown to accumulate on pipe walls even after cleaning intervention, suggesting that risk cannot be eliminated with a single applied intervention and hence the long-term water quality benefits are uncertain. This recurring cleaning requirement can substantially increase total expenditure on interventions. Although different interventions exist to manage accumulated material, flow conditioning is considered to be a long-term intervention due to the use of only system hydraulic (shear stress) with minimal resources. The water quality performance of the selected intervention was tested in multiple operational trunk mains including a control main with similar physical, chemical and microbiological conditions and their discolouration risk and chlorine wall decay were measured as a water quality performance indicator. The periodic trunk main flow conditioning improved the long-term chronic material loading and chlorine wall decay of trunk mains compared to the control. Although transport of occasional acute loading to the downstream network from the flow conditioning trial was recorded, the improved downstream accumulation return period found for the flow conditioned main evidenced that chronic loading has a significant influence on discolouration risk than acute loading. Using the field observed material accumulation processes for large diameter main and long-term measured data, the Variable Condition Discolouration (VCD) model was used successfully to simulate long-term discolouration behaviour with high accuracy and the model’s accumulation functionality was validated. This fundamental way of capturing accumulation behaviour in the VCD model was used to develop a novel whole life costing (WLC) model for designing flow conditioning intervention cycle cost trading against hydraulic resilience. The WLC modelling framework derived exponential Pareto front solutions that can select best solutions between intervention expenditure and level of resilience achieved. This research enlightens for the first time how the trunk main and downstream network discolouration risk behaves in response to periodically controlled interventions and how risk can be managed proactively and strategically from treatment works to trunk main and downstream distribution zone.
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Membah, Joseph F. J. "Parametric Cost Estimating and Risk Analysis of Transportation Tunneling Projects." Diss., North Dakota State University, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10365/25908.
Full textAbstract:
Due to the increased scrutiny of construction costs for infrastructure projects by the
public and legislators, it is becoming increasing important for project developers to prepare
accurate conceptual cost estimates for transportation tunnel projects at the feasibility stage to aid
in making investment decisions. Past studies have emphasized that tunnel-project costs have
been significantly underestimated, and cost uncertainties and risks have been identified as the
cause of cost under or overestimation. A broad understanding of the factors that contribute to
cost underestimation is important as it enables researchers and estimators to develop appropriate
functions, evaluate, and implement them to produce realistic cost estimates.
This study was aimed at developing parametric cost estimation functions and quantifying
their risks for transportation tunnel projects. A comprehensive background study of more than 39
published articles on transportation tunnel infrastructure projects was conducted through a
systematic literature review and 40 key estimating parameters that may impact project costs and
the associated project logistics were identified. Data from completed tunnel projects were
collected and used to develop the parametric cost equations. Exploratory analyses were first
performed to discover the correlations among tunnel costs and tunnel cost parameters/drivers.
The purpose of this effort was to assess if a relationship existed between tunnel variables and
tunnel project cost estimates. Parametric cost estimation functions were then developed for
different tunnel applications. There has been no comprehensive study performed to date to
develop parametric cost estimation functions that incorporated risk and uncertainty for
transportation tunnel projects. Two representative sample case studies were performed and
Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantify the associated risks. The results from the case
studies illustrate the need to use appropriate techniques to simulate tunnel costs and quantify the risks associated with the estimates. The findings of the study provide a methodology to estimate
the costs of transportation tunnels and quantify the uncertainties and risks associated with the
costs. The methodology developed in this research could help reduce the incidence of project
cost underestimation and alleviate some of the controversies surrounding cost overruns in
transportation tunnel projects.
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Leece, Ryan Don. "Enterprise Risk Management, Earnings Predictability and the Cost of Debt." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/37506.
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The extant academic literature considers enterprise risk management (ERM) to be the fundamental paradigm for managing the portfolio of risks confronting organizations. However, there is debate as to whether ERM actually enhances stakeholder value. This study investigates whether ERM is associated with increased earnings predictability and a lower risk of firm failure, two theoretical predications regarding ERMâ s impact on stakeholder value.
My research utilizes the Security and Exchange Commissionâ s (SEC) enhanced proxy statement disclosures as of February 28th, 2010 to measure ERM performance. Additionally, in order to quantify the operational construct, textual analysis is performed to develop a measure of ERM performance to be used in econometric analyses.
The analyses presented in this paper investigate whether key predicted benefits of ERM are observable. Results support the proposition that ERM is associated with increased earnings predictability. Specifically, earnings and accruals are found to be more persistent for firms with better ERM performance. Additionally, analystsâ earnings forecasts are more accurate in the presence of enhanced ERM performance. Results are inconclusive with regards to ERMâ s ability to influence the risk of firm failure during this studyâ s sample period (i.e., 2007-2009). One explanation for this departure, the economic volatility during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, may make it difficult to empirically detect the relationship between ERM performance and the risk of firm failure.Ph. D.
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Zeng, Chenxi. "A minimum cost and risk mitigation approach for blood collection." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/54966.
Full textAbstract:
Due to the limited supply and perishable nature of blood products, effective management of blood collection is critical for high quality healthcare delivery. Whole blood is typically collected over a 6 to 8 hour collection window from volunteer donors at sites, e.g., schools, universities, churches, companies, that are a significant distance
from the blood products processing facility and then transported from collection site to processing facility by a blood mobile. The length of time between collecting whole blood and processing it into cryoprecipitate ("cryo"), a critical blood product for controlling massive hemorrhaging, cannot take longer than 8 hours (the 8 hour collection to completion constraint), while the collection to completion constraint for other blood products is 24 hours. In order to meet the collection to completion constraint for cryo, it is often necessary
to have a "mid-drive collection"; i.e., for a vehicle other than the blood mobile to pickup and transport, at extra cost, whole blood units collected during early in the collection window to the processing facility. In this dissertation, we develop analytical models to: (1)
analyze which collection sites should be designated as cryo collection sites to minimize total collection costs while satisfying the collection to completion constraint and meeting the weekly production target (the non-split case), (2) analyze the impact of changing the current process to allow collection windows to be split into two intervals and then determining which intervals should be designated as cryo collection intervals (the split case), (3) insure that the weekly production target is met with high probability. These problems lead to MDP models with large state and action spaces and constraints to guarantee that the weekly production target is met with high probability. These models are computationally intractable for problems having state and action spaces of realistic cardinality. We consider two approaches to guarantee that the weekly production target is met with high probability: (1) a penalty function approach and (2) a chance constraint approach. For the MDP with penalty function approach, we first relax a constraint that significantly reduces the cardinality of the state space and provides a lower bound on the optimal expected weekly cost of collecting whole blood for cryo while satisfying the collection to completion constraint. We then present an action elimination procedure that coupled with the constraint relaxation leads to a computationally tractable lower bound. We then develop several heuristics that generate sub-optimal policies and provide an analytical description of the difference between the upper and lower bounds in order to determine the quality of the heuristics. For the multiple decision epoch MDP model with chance constraint approach, we first note by example that a straightforward application of dynamic programming can lead to a sub-optimal policy. We then restrict the model to a single decision epoch. We then use a computationally tractable rolling horizon procedure for policy determination. We also present a simple greedy heuristic (another rolling horizon decision
making procedure) based on ranking the collection intervals by mid-drive pickup cost per unit of expected cryo collected, which results in a competitive sub-optimal solution and leads to the development of a practical decision support tool (DST). Using real data from the American Red Cross (ARC), we estimate that this DST reduces total cost by about 30% for the non-split case and 70% for the split case, compared to the current practice. Initial implementation of the DST at the ARC Southern regional manufacturing and service center supports our estimates and indicates the potential for significant improvement in current practice.
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Kruzel, Mark M. "Effects of changes in risk exposure on capital structure, cost of capital, and gas transmission costs." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ38540.pdf.
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Rahming, Kiah Bernard. "Applying risk management to reduce the time in lay-up while increasing the cost effectiveness of a Nimitz (CVN 68) class aircraft carrier in dry dock during the execution phase of a refueling and complex overhaul." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Naval Postgraduate School, 2009. http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2009/Mar/09Mar%5FRahming.pdf.
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Thesis (M.S. in Systems Engineering)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2009.Thesis Advisor(s): Langford, Gary O. "March 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 23, 2009. Author(s) subject terms: Systems Engineering Process, Risk Management, Risk Analysis, Risk Matrix, Cost Effectiveness, Time Effectiveness, Refueling and Complex Overhaul. Includes bibliographical references (p. 111-114). Also available in print.
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Dewar, Althea C. Savanh Bobby. "Analyzing C2 Greyhound capacity at Fleet Readiness Center Southwest (FRC SW)." Monterey, Calif. : Naval Postgraduate School, 2009. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA501383.
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"Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration from the Naval Postgraduate School, June 2009."Advisor(s): Heath, Susan ; Euske, Kenneth. "June 2009." "MBA professional report"--Cover. Description based on title screen as viewed on July 14, 2009. DTIC Identifiers: CPI (Continuous Process Improvement), C2 Greyhound, capacity analysis, process flow. Author(s) subject terms: C2 Greyhound; Capacity Analysis; AirSpeed Toolset; Process Flow; Precedence Diagram; Work Breakdown Structure (WBS); PMI3 Includes bibliographical references (p. 43-44). Also available in print.
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Cevikparmak, Sedat. "Effects of Managerial Risk Propensity and Risk Perception on Contract Selection: Revisiting the Risk Neutrality Assumption of Transaction Cost Economics (TCE)." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2020. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1707314/.
Full textAbstract:
Contract selection is at the forefront of risk management and mitigation, yet it is an underrepresented area of research in supply chain management field as well as the influences of individual-level risk propensity and risk perception on supply chain decision-making processes. This dissertation explores effects of managerial risk propensity and risk perception on contract selection through the theoretical lens of Transaction Cost Economics (TCE), using a vignette-based experimental research design. This body of work introduces both a first-ever systemmigram of TCE in relation to contract selection, and a novel measurement scale for TCE contract typology. Furthermore, this dissertation tests the TCE predictions towards contract selection and explores the moderating role of financial risk propensity and risk perception (cost vs. supplier performance) on contract selection. The main theoretical contribution of this research is the opening of an old debate on the risk neutrality assumption of TCE, by providing empirical evidence that individual-level risk propensity and perception effect contract selection. The practical implications are significant and points out to the need for a better fit between individual-level and firm-level risk propensity.
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Drawer, Scott. "Risk evaluation in professional football." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2001. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/7542.
Full textAbstract:
Risk management is composed of three major elements viz., hazard identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. The aim of hazard identification and risk estimation is to identify the outcomes from risk, the magnitude of the associated con&quences from risk, and the estimation of the probabilities of these outcomes. Previous work focused on hazard identification and risk estimation and identified the relatively high risks associated with playing professional football. By adhering to the risk management process, the aim of this thesis was to determine the significance of these high risks to football clubs and their players. A theoretical framework was designed to evaluate the influence of player injury on the financial and playing performance of professional football clubs. This framework was also used to assess, through use of cost benefit analysis, the practicalities of investing in suitable injury prevention strategies, to reduce the risks to football clubs and their players. Former professional footballers were surveyed to investigate the long-term medical and socioeconomic consequences associated with the high risks of playing professional football. The results identified the high financial costs associated with player injury on professional football clubs. Although the high risks of player injury have a relatively minor effect on teamperformance of the Premier League clubs, this effect still has a relatively major influence on the financial performance of the club. In contrast, the influence of player injury to teamperformance was relatively major for Division I and Division 2 clubs, but this had a relatively minor effect on financial performance. The application of cost benefit analysis to the investment of specialist personnel to reduce the risks of injury demonstrated that the proposals were practicable for Premier League and Division I clubs only. In addition, it was also demonstrated that the high risks associated with playing professional football have a significant influence on the long-term well-being of foriner players. One-third of former players had been medically diagnosed osteoarthritic in a lower limb joint. The majority of players also perceived that injury had a negative influence on their present and future welfare. The results demonstrate that the consequences associated with the relatively high acute injury risk also have a significant effect on the financial and playing performance of football clubs and the future welfare of their players.
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Forland, Sven Ivar, and Varun Upadhyay. "Risk - A Cost to Allocate? : An Emipirical Study of Business Practice." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for industriell økonomi og teknologiledelse, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-15044.
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The combination of risk management and cost allocation in order to allocate risk in a sensible manner is a field with not much existing theory. The ABC (Activity Based Costing) model seems as an appropriate cost allocation method, with a structure of using activities as a connecting link. ERM (Enterprise Risk Management) is selected as foundation for the risk management theory because it provides a general framework and a holistic approach. Furthermore, we choose to use four main risk categories. Some hypothetical ABRM (Activity Based Risk Management) alternatives based on these can be used to allocate risk. These alternatives include approaches where risk is allocated to products either from the bottom and up (bottom-up) or from the top and down (top-down). The top-down approach is most suitable when the total risk is known, while the bottom-up is most suitable when a risk category should be divided into sub-categories. A combination of the two approaches may also be of purpose. A qualitative research is conducted among Norwegian banks and power companies in order to map current risk practice. This empirical results show that banks are more sophisticated regarding both cost allocation and risk management, but neither of banks and power companies use ABC extensively, in fact the product calculations are independent of the ABC allocations. Banks have a customer focus instead of emphasizing products.If risk can be divided into overhead and direct as for costs, this fact along with the empirical findings gives a good foundation for discussing the hypothetical alternatives. Another alternative is added to better handle complex risk categories, like e.g. concentration risk. It also becomes apparent that the manufacturing industry, which we believe uses ABC for calculating product profitability, can apply all the discussed alternatives in this thesis, whereas banks and power companies can only use some of them. Regarding the question of whether or not the ABRM alternatives would be of purpose or not, this is not easy to answer before having applied it in the real world and judged its results (even after having conducted a research of banks and power companies). However, attention-directing information can be gained, and the present paper is only meant as an introductory discussion to the topic, and will hopefully provide some innovative input to the world of risk management.
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Zhao, Shan 1972. "A quantitative QFD method taking into account cost and risk factors /." Thesis, McGill University, 2004. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=81580.
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This thesis develops a quantitative quality function deployment (QFD) method and integrates it with the methodologies of value engineering and risk analysis. Numerical parameters and scales allow measurement of product development and onward adjustment as the process unfolds. In QFD, customer requirements are usually defined in terms of design characteristics. In the method developed here, customer requirements are related to product functions. The use of value engineering then allows costs to be quantified. The analysis of design uncertainties allows the determination of risk factors. By introducing the new concepts of customer satisfaction value and an integrated evaluation index, an appropriate balance between customer and enterprise satisfaction can be attained in the final product. The new QFD method provides a quantitative approach based on cost and risk for evaluating how well customer requirements are taken into account in the development of a product.
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Baloi, Daniel. "A framework for managing global risk factors affecting construction cost performance." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2002. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/6808.
Full textAbstract:
Poor cost performance of construction projects has been a major concern for both contractors and clients. The effective management of risk is thus critical to the success of any construction project and the importance of risk management has grown as projects have become more complex and competition has increased. Contractors have traditionally used financial mark-ups to cover the risk associated with construction projects but as competition increases and margins have become tighter they can no longer rely on this strategy and must improve their ability to manage risk. Furthermore, the construction industry has witnessed significant changes particularly in procurement methods with clients allocating greater risks to contractors. Evidence shows that there is a gap between existing risk management techniques and tools, mainly built on normative statistical decision theory, and their practical application by construction contractors. The main reason behind the lack of use is that risk decision making within construction organisations is heavily based upon experience, intuition and judgement and not on mathematical models. This thesis presents a model for managing global risk factors affecting construction cost performance of construction projects. The model has been developed using behavioural decision approach, fuzzy logic technology, and Artificial Intelligence technology. The methodology adopted to conduct the research involved a thorough literature survey on risk management, informal and formal discussions with construction practitioners to assess the extent of the problem, a questionnaire survey to evaluate the importance of global risk factors and, finally, repertory grid interviews aimed at eliciting relevant knowledge. There are several approaches to categorising risks permeating construction projects. This research groups risks into three main categories, namely organisation-specific, global and Acts of God. It focuses on global risk factors because they are ill-defined, less understood by contractors and difficult to model, assess and manage although they have huge impact on cost performance. Generally, contractors, especially in developing countries, have insufficient experience and knowledge to manage them effectively. The research identified the following groups of global risk factors as having significant impact on cost performance: estimator related, project related, fraudulent practices related, competition related, construction related, economy related and political related factors. The model was tested for validity through a panel of validators (experts) and crosssectional cases studies, and the general conclusion was that it could provide valuable assistance in the management of global risk factors since it is effective, efficient, flexible and user-friendly. The findings stress the need to depart from traditional approaches and to explore new directions in order to equip contractors with effective risk management tools.
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Lee, Hoyoung. "Client risk, audior cost structures, and auditor switches : an empirical study /." view abstract or download file of text, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p9987429.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2000.Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 88-93). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.
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Bermúdez, Marcos José. "Analysis and quantification of risk of cost overruns in construction projects." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/15145.
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Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1985.MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ENGINEERING
Bibliography: leaves 121-123.
by José Bermúdez Marcos.
M.S.
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Dzobo, Oliver. "Risk-based interruption cost index based on customer and interruption parameters." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/8683.
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Includes bibliographical references.Modern competitive electricity markets do not ask for power systems with the highest possible technical perfection, but for systems with the highest possible economic efficiency. Higher economic efficiency can only be achieved when accurate and flexible analysis tools are used. Thus, the modelling of reliability inputs, methodology applied in assessing supply reliability and the interpretation of the reliability outputs should be carefully considered in power system management. In order to relate investment costs to the resulting levels of supply reliability, it is required that supply reliability be quantified in a monetary way. This can be done by calculating the expected interruption costs. Interruption costs evaluation, however, cannot be done correctly in all cases by methods that are based on the commonly used average values. It is the objective of this thesis to find a new way of calculating interruption costs which would combine the precision of a probabilistic method with the flexibility and correctness of customer and interruption parameters. A new reliability worth index was found, based on customer and interruption parameters. This new index was called a Risk-based interruption cost (RBIC) index and is described in detail in this thesis. The technique applies a time-based probabilistic modelling approach to network reliability worth parameters. The approach uses probability distribution functions to model customer interruption costs (CICs) while taking into account seasonal, day-of-week and time-of-day infl uences. In addition, customer specific parameters - economic activity, energy consumption, turnover and power interruption mitigation measures are used to segment electricity customers into customer cluster segments of similar cost profiles. Unlike the conventional deterministic approach, the new technique thus considers variability in CICs. The new model and methods to calculate the new reliability worth index have been implemented in a computer program and the accuracy of the calculation method was tested in various case studies and by comparison with the traditional average process. This research shows that probability density functions are superior to deterministic average values when modelling reliability worth parameters. Probability distribution functions reflect the variability in reliability worth parameters through their dispersion and skewness. Disregarding the effects of probability distribution of the interruption cost leads to large errors, up to 40% and more, in the calculated expected interruption costs. The actual error in specific reliability worth calculations is hard to estimate. It is however clear that this error cannot be simply ignored. Furthermore, the risk-based approach applied to the interpretation of risk-based interruption cost (RBIC) index significantly influences the perception on the network's reliability performance. The risk-based approach allows the uncertainty allowed in a network planning or iv operation decision to be quantified. Use of the new reliability worth index offer more flexibility in reliability worth assessment and produce more accurate results. It can be used in all areas of power system reliability worth assessment which have always been exclusive domain of the average process.
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Raitio, M. (Maarit). "Caries risk determination and cost-effectiveness of targeted prevention in adolescents." Doctoral thesis, University of Oulu, 2005. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9514266366.
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Abstract
The aim of this study was to assess a series of caries risk indicators to find a suitable model for
screening adolescents for risk cases, and to evaluate the long-term efficacy and cost-effectiveness of an
one-year intervention programme provided for the resulting risk groups.
To reduce the spread of infectious diseases at 20 day-care centres, risk factors for the occurrence of
salivary mutans streptococci were surveyed in 345 children before and after 8 months of intervention, i.e.
withdrawal of tooth brushing in 10 centres. Dental health habits were evaluated by means of questionnaires.
Four clinical and six salivary tests were related to 11-month caries increment in 181 adolescents. The 109
high-risk subjects presenting four or more risk factors were provided either with chlorhexidine or fluoride
treatment, the low-risk group receiving basic prevention. An age and sex-matched control group was chosen.
Life-long data on all 390 subjects were collected from their dental records. Survival analysis was applied,
taking as the starting point the time of tooth eruption and as the event the first filling due to caries.
The costs of the intervention and the number of fillings were compared between the groups.
The dental health of the risk groups tended to approach the average level for the control group. One
tooth surface per subject was saved from filling. The costs of fillings for the control group were twice as great
as those for the risk groups at the end of the intervention, but only slightly more after the five-year
follow-up period.
The model (DFS, Candida and sucrase) offers additive information for finding adolescents at risk
of caries, and for targeting preventive measures at the individual level and for the motivation of patients. The results stress the importance of dental age and of
providing preventive procedures at the time of tooth eruption. The present risk-based strategy proved to be
of moderate benefit to dental health by comparison with the costs of normal preventive and restorative care
and cannot be recommended as such for a target population with a high risk of caries.
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Linnes, Cathrine. "Applying Decision Theory to Quantify the Cost of Network Security Risk." NSUWorks, 2006. http://nsuworks.nova.edu/gscis_etd/673.
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This research quantifies the maximum potential loss due to a breach of security to help decision makers understand and justify the expenses necessary to properly protect information systems and identify the optimally priced security features that will provide the maximum cost benefit ratio. The purpose is to help assess and reduce the value of risk such that it is as close to zero as possible, where companies are not spending too little or too much on security prevention. The research uses decision analysis, specifically a "decision tree" and "influence diagram" to model the problem, quantify the losses, and gauge the risk associated with network intrusions and security technologies applied to an organization. The model is designed to help decision makers balance the costs of security procedures against the potential costs of internal and external information systems misuse and computer crime whether the attack is intentional or unintentional. The methodology can be used to better plan for the prevention of attacks. The model incorporates sufficient flexibility to accommodate the different risks and associated costs faced by different organizations. The model will help managers understand and justify the expenses necessary to protect information systems properly.
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Moore, Julie Carolyn. "Comparisons of correlation methods in risk analysis." Thesis, This resource online, 1994. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06102009-063246/.
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Hansen, Carsten. "Examining political risk in service offshoring strategies." Thesis, Cranfield University, 2015. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10181.
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This research investigates political risk in the context of service offshoring and the corresponding impact on risk management decisions. The first stage of the study uses the Repertory Grid Technique (RGT), to explore key post-contract political risks experiences within offshore outsourcing activities. Twelve key political risks affecting offshore outsourcing decisions are identified, and the moderating effect of offshoring activity types (BPO, ITO or KPO) on political risk exposure and impact perceptions is highlighted. The research also explores the conditioning effect of industry specific exposure to political risk and enhances the explanatory ability of the Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) constructs, offering a re-operationalization of the political risk component of external uncertainty.
The second stage of the research introduces a series of hypotheses between offshoring flows and political risk profiles, and applies multiple regression to analyse political risk affecting offshore activities in low cost countries across contract-based offshoring engagements and FDI. The findings highlight that political risk is a genuine business concern for offshore contract-based outsourcing modalities, and identify concerns with Intellectual Property protection, Quality of Bureaucracy and Corruption as key considerations affecting location decisions in low-cost countries. The research further suggests a positive relationship between strong country level institutional and regulatory systems and high knowledge content in offshoring engagements.
From a practical perspective, the research highlights the need for managerial tools to determine diversified firm and industry specific political risk impact on global service outsourcing engagements. The key practical contribution is the development of differentiated political risk typologies that can capture the nuances of external risks in offshoring, allowing for more accurate risk assessment of offshoring decisions.
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Lyle, Todd Duncan. "Risk control as a cost control tool a study on the viability of a uniform risk control expenditure tracking system for the semiconductor industry /." Online version, 1998. http://www.uwstout.edu/lib/thesis/1998/1998lylet.pdf.
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Bowen, Lucy R. "The Performance Cost of Security." DigitalCommons@CalPoly, 2019. https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/theses/2002.
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Historically, performance has been the most important feature when optimizing computer hardware. Modern processors are so highly optimized that every cycle of computation time matters. However, this practice of optimizing for performance at all costs has been called into question by new microarchitectural attacks, e.g. Meltdown and Spectre. Microarchitectural attacks exploit the effects of microarchitectural components or optimizations in order to leak data to an attacker. These attacks have caused processor manufacturers to introduce performance impacting mitigations in both software and silicon.
To investigate the performance impact of the various mitigations, a test suite of forty-seven different tests was created. This suite was run on a series of virtual machines that tested both Ubuntu 16 and Ubuntu 18. These tests investigated the performance change across version updates and the performance impact of CPU core number vs. default microarchitectural mitigations. The testing proved that the performance impact of the microarchitectural mitigations is non-trivial, as the percent difference in performance can be as high as 200%.
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Boadi, Richard S. "Toward a risk framework in prioritizing ancillary transportation assets for management." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/42847.
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A growing number of transportation agencies have begun to manage selected ancillary transportation assets systematically--culverts, guardrails, pavement markings, sidewalks and curbs, street lighting, traffic signals, traffic signs, utilities and manholes, earth retaining structures, and environmental mitigation features. Given prevailing budget limitations, several agencies are interested in prioritizing these assets for inclusion in their existing management systems. This paper discusses critical elements of a framework for assessing the risks, benefits and costs of incorporating ancillary assets in existing Transportation Asset Management programs. The paper reviews some basic elements of a risk theory, examines risk applications in transportation asset management, water mains, and storm water management, and identifies the basic elements of a risk-benefit-cost framework for prioritizing ancillary assets for management. These elements can be used as a basis for developing a decision analysis framework to make a business case for the formal management of ancillary transportation assets and to prioritize them for inclusion in existing Transportation Asset Management programs. Using these elements, we have developed a risk ranking model that can be used by transportation officials to prioritize their ancillary asset classes for management. A demonstration of the model is presented in this paper to show its effectiveness. The study concludes that tracking and documentation of ancillary transportation asset failures would help agencies better understand the risks associated with failure. Tracking and documenting the failures of ancillary transportation assets would also help in identifying trends/probability of failure as well as quantifying the consequences associated with these failures. Such information could also be used to estimate risk factors to prioritize individual asset classes for inclusion in existing management systems.
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Carle, Fredrik, and Joakim Villner. "Is there a cost of being ethical?" Thesis, KTH, Fastigheter och byggande, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-152592.
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Sweden is one of the countries in the world where investing in mutual funds is most prevalent among the population. The supply of funds in the market has increased significantly in recent decades as well as the public debate on ethical issues. This has contributed to the development of the market for ethical funds. There is no clear definition of what an ethical fund is but generally it is a fund that takes into account factors related to social responsibility in different ways. This study analyzes the ethical funds historical performance levels in comparison with the corresponding traditional mutual funds. Three questions have been answered with the help of quantitative and qualitative analysis. A computational model has been constructed in Excel to analyze historical data from a range of ethical funds and traditional mutual funds. The results of the calculations are the basis for the quantitative portion of the analysis. These have been supplemented by external expertise. The effects, which the commodity prices have had on the yield differences between traditional and ethical funds, have also been studied. In this study, the price of oil has been chosen to illustrate these effects. It is not possible to reliably reach any general conclusions about how ethical funds as a fund category have performed in comparison with the corresponding traditional mutual funds. However, a pattern is observed, that the risk levels for the selected ethical funds, during the periods studied when the market went sharply up or down, respectively, were higher in all cases. The reason for this seems to be the diversification problems that have arisen due to the ethical constraints, something that both the underlying theory on the subject and the discussion with one of Swedbank Roburs portfolio manager’s support. The increased level of risk has contributed to the fact that ethical funds have found it harder to reach an equivalent risk-adjusted rate of return when the bull and the bear markets were examined.Sverige är ett av de länder i världen där sparandet i fonder är som mest utbrett bland befolkningen. Utbudet av fonder på marknaden har ökat markant de senaste decennierna och i takt med att samhällsdebatten kring etiska frågor ökat, har en ny marknad vuxit fram, marknaden för etiska fonder. Det finns ingen tydlig definition på vad en etisk fond är men generellt är det fonder som tar hänsyn till faktorer kopplade till socialt ansvarstagande på olika sätt. Denna undersökning analyserar etiska fonders historiska prestationsnivåer i jämförelse med motsvarande traditionella aktiefonder. Tre frågeställningar har besvarats med hjälp av kvantitativ och kvalitativ analys. En beräkningsmodell har byggts i Excel i syfte att analysera historisk data från ett urval av etiska fonder och traditionella aktiefonder. Resultaten från beräkningarna ligger till grund för den kvantitativa delen av analysen som därefter har diskuterats med extern expertis. Råvaruprisernas effekter på skillnader i avkastning mellan traditionella och etiska fonder har också analyserats. I denna undersökning har oljepriset valts för att studera dessa effekter. Det går inte att med säkerhet komma fram till några generella slutsatser kring hur etiska fonder som fondkategori presterat i jämförelse med motsvarande traditionella aktiefonder. Dock kan ett mönster observeras under de perioder som undersökts då marknaden gått kraftigt uppåt respektive neråt, nämligen att risknivåerna för de utvalda etiska fonderna varit högre i samtliga fall. Anledningen till detta tycks vara de diversifieringsproblem som uppstått till följd av de etiska restriktionerna, något som bakomliggande teori inom ämnet och intervju med en av Swedbank Roburs förvaltare stödjer. Den ökade risknivån bidrar till att de etiska fonderna haft svårare att uppnå en likvärdig riskjusterad avkastning när den uppåtgående och den nedåtgående perioden granskats.
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Celenligil, Onur. "Analogical Reasoning For Risk Assessment And Cost Overrun Estimation In Construction Projects." Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612229/index.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Project cost increase is the main concern in international construction projects which usually results in disputes and conflicts among the project participants. The aim of this thesis is to construct a database that represents risk event history regarding international construction projects and construct a cost overrun prediction model. It is hypothesized that magnitudes of project related, company related and country related risk factors can be predicted by assessing the level of vulnerability by analogical reasoning with previous projects. The vulnerability and risk factors can further be used to predict cost overrun in the bid preparation stage of international construction projects. Thus, prediction models that link vulnerability with risk factors and cost are constructed by using a dataset of 166 international construction projects, which consists of 66 real and 100 hypothetical cases. Case-based reasoning (CBR) technique is used to construct the prediction models. After testing the performance of various CBR models using different weight generation and retrieval methods, error rate of +/- 7.15 % cost increase is achieved. The utilization of CBR models in the prediction of potential risk sources and cost overrun is demonstrated by a real case study. Finally, the benefits and pitfalls of using analogical reasoning for risk and cost overrun assessment of construction projects are discussed.
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Fridriksson, Johann. "Finite element analysis and cost/risk assessment of the flex cover system." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/37099.
Full textAbstract:
The flex cover system has two main components, the flex cover which is a flexible cover for coal transportation railcars, and a handling machine. The flex cover system is currently being developed by Empire Dynamic Structures.
The research presented in this thesis revolves around the flex cover itself and not the cover handling machine although the entire concept is introduced in some detail.
The flex cover is described in detail and extensive analysis was performed to determine the behaviour of the cover under static and dynamic loading. Additionally a cost/risk analysis was performed to break down and analyse the cover by components and determine the economical impacts involved with fabrication of the cover.
The finite element analysis was performed by conventional methods using the software ANSYS. The cost/risk analysis was done by creating a decision tree and using expected monetary value in the software DecisionPro.
The finite element analyses showed that the original design of the cover holds up in the conditions imposed on it when it is undamaged but some types of damage can quickly impair on the performance.
Due to a lack of solid data the cost/risk analysis did not yield useful results as most of the input values had to be made up. The model was still constructed and is ready for future use when better data has been acquired.
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Coffindaffer, Jarrett W. "Colorectal cancer cost-effectiveness of screening and chemoprevention in average risk males /." Morgantown, W. Va. : [West Virginia University Libraries], 2006. https://eidr.wvu.edu/etd/documentdata.eTD?documentid=4633.
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Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2006.Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains ix, 98 p. : ill. (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 92-98).
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Vidalis, Sofia Margarita. "Relation between cost, quality, and risk in Portland Cement Concrete pavement construction." [Gainesville, Fla.] : University of Florida, 2005. http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/UFE0013025.
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Rennison, Willaim Ross. "Reducing management risk : forecasting the deployment and cost of naval service personnel." Thesis, University of Portsmouth, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.555150.
Full textAbstract:
The Royal Navy requires a well trained and highly motivated workforce to perform specialised and demanding tasks efficiently and effectively. Its continued success depends on sound financial provision and a supply of suitable personnel willing to serve. There are severe penalties from over or under estimating the number and cost of the people needed, so achieving the right balance is a matter of risk management. Study of the Royal Navy's history shows the problem of controlling the number of and expenditure on its personnel is not new, but the decision by the author in April 1997 to capture the location and payment made to each Naval Service person every month has enabled more light to be thrown on this complex issue. As a result of this work, a reliable, coherent and comprehensive data library was built and is still being maintained. New techniques were devised to track the movements and payments made to individual Naval Service people as they pass through the manning system. This dataset was used to establish the future cost and deployment patterns for Naval personnel in order to protect the Service by ensuring sufficient funds would be available to pay its planned strength. To achieve this, detailed forecasts were constructed so all the available trained strength was distributed to the individual budgets based on their historical allocation. This approach allowed visibility of the movement of manpower and its cost as the system responded to fluctuations in demand. Budget managers actively sought this information as it exposed sudden changes in manning levels and costs caused by action elsewhere. To meet this need, each budgetary area is now provided with its own individual planned demand for Naval manpower, its forecast of strength and its cost for the next four years. In this increasingly difficult financial situation, the political and economic signs indicate that the need for this type of work will grow as Service planners will be called upon to show their equipment programmes and personnel plans are affordable. As future governments struggle to meet demands for funding, the Service will have to demonstrate the cost effectiveness of any new manning initiative which, for it to be successful, will have to be supported by empirical evidence and offer an analytical framework that will demonstrate its value both before and after implementation.