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Ozkan, Aydin. "Costs of financial distress and capital structure of firms." Thesis, University of York, 1996. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/2502/.
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Costa, Magali Pedro. "Three essays on firms' financial distress." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/17512.
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Financial and output market decisions are crucial to the success or failure of an or-
ganization. These decisions are influenced by the dynamic and competitive economic
environment in which firms operate and, in turn, affect the ability of firms to meet their
debt obligations.
This thesis is constituted by three separate but interrelated essays which explore the
impact of financial and operating decisions on the default risk. The first two essays study
the equilibrium default probability, in a two-stage differentiated product duopoly model
with uncertainty, where firms decide their financial structure in the first stage and their
quantities in the second stage. These two essays analyze the impact of changes in the
parameters of the model, on the equilibrium default probability (the first essay uses com-
parative statics tools while the second uses numerical simulation). The impact of changes
in the uncertainty level, in the degree of product substitutability, in the marginal costs
and in the default cost on the financing and output decisions and on the default risk are
analyzed. The third essay tests empirical the relationship between market structure and
capital structure decisions and their relationship with the default probability using a sam-
ple of eleven members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD).
The three essays reach a coherent set of conclusions. In particular, they show that
uncertainty, market structure and default costs influence financial and product market de-
cisions and the probability of default. Moreover, they show that the default probability is
influenced directly by the parameters, but it is also influenced by the way firms optimally
adjust their financial and product market decisions when the parameters change. There-
fore a less favorable environment does not necessarily imply higher default probability, as
firms may respond by financing less with debt; RESUMO:Decisões financeiras e no mercado do produto são cruciais para o sucesso ou falência de
uma organização. Estas decisões são influenciadas pelo ambiente econômico, dinâmico e
competitivo em que as empresas operam e, por sua vez, afetam a capacidade das empresas
cumprirem suas obrigações.
Esta tese é constituída por três ensaios distintos, mas interrelacionados que exploram
o impacto das decisões financeiras e operacionais sobre o risco de incumprimento. Os dois
primeiros ensaios estudam a probabilidade de incumprimento de equilíbrio, num modelo
duopólio, com produtos diferenciados, com dois estágios e com incerteza, onde as em-
presas no primeiro estágio decidem a sua estrutura financeira, e no segundo estágio as
suas quantidades. Estes dois ensaios analisam o impacto de alterações dos parâmetros
do modelo na probabilidade de incumprimento de equilíbrio (o primeiro ensaio usa ferra-
mentas de estática comparada, enquanto o segundo usa simulação numérica). É analisado
o impacto de mudanças no nível de incerteza, no grau de substituibilidade do produto,
nos custos marginais e no custo de incumprimento sobre as decisões de financiamento e
de produção, e sobre o risco de incumprimento. O terceiro ensaio testa empíricamente a
relação entre estrutura de mercado e as decisões da estrutura de capital e a sua relação
com a probabilidade de incumprimento, utilizando uma amostra de onze membros da
Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico (OCDE).
Os três ensaios chegam a um conjunto coerente de conclusões. Nomeadamente, mostram
que a incerteza, a estrutura de mercado e custos de incumprimento infuenciam as decisões
financeiras e no mercado do produto e a probabilidade de incumprimento. Além disso,
mostram que a probabilidade de incumprimento é infuênciada diretamente pelos parâmetros
, mas também é infuênciada pela forma como as empresas ajustam de forma ótima as
suas decisões financeiras e no mercado do produto quando os parâmetros alteram. Por
conseguinte, um ambiente menos favorável não significa necessariamente maior probabilidade
de incumprimento, uma vez que as empresas podem responder financiando-se com menos dívida
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Pereira, Raynolde. "Taxes, endogenous financial distress costs, and the choice between private and public debt." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/280709.
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This dissertation examines the role of taxes and financial distress costs in the incremental financing choice between private and public debt. Theory suggests it is easier to renegotiate and restructure private debt claims outside bankruptcy. While financial distress costs may matter in the choice between private and public debt, the primary motivation for this study is to examine whether the relationship between financial distress costs and the private-public debt choice is dependent on firm's marginal tax rates. The point being firms more likely to default on their debt will exploit tax savings using private debt claims. Using a sample from the SDC database, I find a positive relationship between the issuance of private debt and the proxy for firms' financial distress costs. Additionally, I find a positive and significant relationship between the interaction of taxes and financial distress costs and the issuance of private debt claims. This supports the argument that the relationship between financial distress costs and the choice of debt is dependent on the firm's tax status. The intuition is that while financial distress costs differ between private and public debt claims, firms are likely to exploit this cost differential in the presence of positive tax savings available through the issuance of debt. Overall, the results are robust to alternative specifications of financial distress costs. The empirical models also control for variables that may lead to cost differential between private and public debt claims. I find firms with high growth opportunities are more likely to issue private debt claims. Consistent with the economies of scale argument, I find public debt tend to be denominated in large issues. I also find that large firms are more likely to issue in public debt markets. One argument here is that large firms do not require the close monitoring provided by private lenders. Finally, as documented in prior studies, I find that regulated firms are less likely to issue private debt claims.
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Tshitangano, Funanani. "Cost of financial distress model for JSE listed companies : a case of South Africa." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/26385.
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The idea behind the study was to answer the question: how costly is financial distress and what is an appropriate model in quantifying these costs for JSE listed entities? The objective was to find a sample of companies that were purely financially distressed on the bases of interest coverage and then to follow those through the resolution of the distress, to see what happened to them and to quantify how costly those factors were. The analysis was conducted through a robust regression exercise and a time series investigation. Quality control was done through outlier investigations and Benford law distribution to determine human influence on the financial statements. It was found that the average costs of financial distress for JSE listed companies is approximately 16.7% market value per annum. The South African appropriate model for JSE listed companies resulted in the cost of financial distress being inversely related to the change in investment policy, holding of liquid assets, size of an entity and Tobin’s Q ratio, but directly related to the economic effect, probability of financial distress and change in employment policy.<br>Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010.<br>Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)<br>unrestricted
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Wijantini, Wijantini. "An empirical analysis of the effect of voluntary disclosure on the indirect costs of financial distress of companies in Indonesia." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.433508.
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Barbaret, Cécile. "Détresse financière en phase palliative chez les patients atteints de cancer : vers une approche structurée des coûts de la fin de vie Financial distress in patients with advanced cancer Inequalities in financial distress, symptoms and quality of life among patients with advanced cancer in France and the United States of America The association between palliative care team follow-up and aggressiveness of cancer care near the end of life. Research Protocol on Early Palliative Care in patients with acute leukaemia after one relapse." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2019. https://thares.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/2019GREAS022.pdf.
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A partir de recherches effectuées et présentées s’est développée une réflexion sur les coûts du cancer en phase palliative et comment au-delà des mesures coercitives, il pourrait être possible, par différentes moyens cliniques, d’enseignements et de recherches, de limiter ces coûts.Méthode : L’existence en France de détresse financière a été identifiée ainsi que son impact sur la qualité de vie des patients atteints de cancer en phase avancé. Dans l’objectif d’améliorer la qualité de vie des patients, il est important de savoir d’où provient cette détresse financière et les différents coûts induits par le cancer. D’autres études ont été réalisées dont notamment une sur la fin de vie et sur les critères d’agressivité des soins qui peuvent être une source de dépenses ainsi que d’altération de la qualité de vie.Discussion : La collaboration, l’anticipation, la qualité de la formation et le développement de la recherche en soins palliatifs sont autant d’éléments pertinents pouvant impacter les coûts du cancer en phase palliative. Dans la littérature, ces différents coûts ne sont jamais étudiés en même temps. Tout ce travail conduit à la construction d’un protocole de recherche sur les coûts de la phase palliative chez les patients atteints de cancer.Conclusion : L’avenir est non seulement de mieux comprendre les dépenses imputables au cancer pour le patient et sa famille mais aussi d’avoir une réflexion plus globale en discutant de l’amélioration de la consommation des soins et des collaborations qui pourraient avoir un impact non négligeable tout en prodiguant des soins de meilleure qualité et en respectant l’individu ainsi que le collectif. La mort fera toujours partie de la vie quelles que soient les avancées médicales, elle est inéluctable mais la façon de mourir ne l’est pas. La clinique, la recherche et l’enseignement sont les 3 axes qui peuvent permettre son amélioration<br>Concerns about costs of the palliative phase in patients with cancer has emerged. Beyond usual measures to control health expenses other ways involving clinical, teaching and research might impact costs of the palliative phase and health expenses.Methods:Association between financial distress and lower quality of life was highlighted. In order to improve patients’ quality of life, focusing on costs and financial distress seems necessary. Other studies especially one concerning aggressive cancer care near the end of life were made. Those criteria could be one source of health expenses and alteration of quality of life.Discussion: Collaboration, anticipation, quality of professionals training programs and palliative care research development are all possible solutions which could lead to decrease health expenses. In literature no study focusing on all type of cost during the palliative phase was made. All this work leads to a new research protocol concerning palliative phase costs among patients with cancer.Conclusion: Understanding specific cancer expenses for patients and their families is undoubtedly important for quality of life. Concerning a more global approach, health consumptions and quality of collaboration are possible ways to improve quality of life while respecting the individual and the collectivity. Death is inevitable but our way to die is not. Clinics, research and teaching are the three axes to focus on
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Wallberg, Martin, and David La. "Optimal kapitalstruktur : En undersökning tillämpad på skandinaviska och tyska företag." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-156767.
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This paper describes and develops a trade off model of optimal capital structure by Bradley et al. (1984). The model is then tested to examine how changes in corporate tax rates affect the optimal capital structure of firms. Based on theoretical implications of the model, four hypotheses are derived stating that firms’ optimal debt-to-value ratio is (1) negatively related to financial distress costs, (2) negatively related to non-debt tax shields, (3) negatively related to firm volatility and (4) positively related to the corporate tax rate. Based on the results of two regression models applied on 753 Scandinavian and German firms, we find empirical support for hypothesis 1 and 3 while we find no empirical support for hypothesis 2 and 4. These results can be explained by problematic empirical proxies and in the light of the pecking-order theory.
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Thorburn, Karin S. "Cash auction bankruptcy and corporate restructuring." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics [Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet vid Handelshögsk.] (EFI), 1998. http://www.hhs.se/efi/summary/475.
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Pranckh, Rupprecht. "Corporate Financial Distress and Financial Restructuring Solutions." St. Gallen, 2006. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/01666007002/$FILE/01666007002.pdf.
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Outecheva, Natalia. "Corporate financial distress : an empirical analysis of distress risk." kostenfrei, 2007. http://www.unisg.ch/www/edis.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/3430.
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Ashraf, Sumaira. "Three essays on financial distress." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/30150.
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Large corporate failures and scandals in recent years indicate the shortcomings of current risk assessment tools and highlight the need for more extensive research on predicting financial distress (FD). The main objective of this thesis, comprised of three independent essays, is to provide empirical evidence on the factors affecting financial distress of firms. The first essay compares the accuracy of traditional distress prediction models at predicting the early warning signs of financial distress. The results reveal that the prediction accuracy of models declines for both early and more progressed financially distressed firms, when applied to an emerging market, Pakistan. The study results suggest that the researchers and practitioners should periodically revise the distress prediction models to adjust them with the dynamic changes in the business environment. The second essay for the first time investigates the benefit of combining accounting, market-based and financial reporting quality (FRQ) measures to predict financial distress of the developed and emerging market firms, UK and Pakistan, respectively. The resulting model shows good prediction accuracy for firms in the developed and emerging market, showing that the FRQ plays a significant role in the financial distress of firms. The findings of the study suggest that the researchers should use this hidden information of financial reports to predict financial distress of firms. The third essay explores the importance of board committee independence for firms operating in a developed market, the UK, and an emerging market, China. Our overall results support current best practice for corporate governance, which recommends more independent board members in compensation and nomination committees to ensure the unbiased selection and evaluation of corporate leadership; Três Ensaios sobre Empresas em Dificuldades Financeiras
Resumo: Nos últimos anos observou-se a falência de grandes empresas, bem como vários escândalos financeiros, o que se tornou indicativo da existência de falhas ao nível das actuais ferramentas de avaliação de riscos, bem como da necessidade de estudos relacionados com a previsão da existência de empresas em dificuldades financeiras (FD). O principal objetivo desta tese, composta de três ensaios independentes, é fornecer evidências empíricas sobre os fatores que afetam as empresas em FD. O primeiro ensaio compara a exatidão dos modelos tradicionais de previsão de stress em prever os primeiros sinais de alerta de FD nas empresas. Os resultados revelaram que a exactidão da previsão dos modelos diminui no caso das empresas em fase inicial ou mais avançada de FD, quando aplicados ao mercado emergente Paquistão. Os resultados do estudo sugerem que tanto investigadores como profissionais devem periodicamente rever os modelos de previsão de FD por forma a os ajustar às mudanças dinâmicas do ambiente de negócios. O segundo ensaio investiga, pela primeira vez, o benefício da combinação de medidas contabilísticas, baseadas no mercado e na qualidade dos relatórios financeiros (FRQ), para prever se as empresas dos mercados desenvolvido e emergente, Reino Unido e Paquistão, respectivamente, se encontram em FD. O modelo final resultante mostra uma boa precisão de previsão para as empresas dos mercados desenvolvidos e emergentes, mostrando que a FRQ desempenha um papel significativo no FD das empresas. Os resultados do estudo sugerem que os investigadores devem usar essa informação, oculta dos relatórios financeiros, para prever o nível de FD das empresas. O terceiro ensaio explora a importância da independência do conselho do quadro de directores para as empresas que operam quer num mercado desenvolvido, Reino Unido, quer num mercado emergente, China. Os resultados globais fundamentam a prática da melhor governança empresarial, o que conduz à recomendação de um quadro de directores mais independente, ao nível dos comités de remuneração e nomeação, como forma de garantir uma selecção e avaliação da liderança empresarial não enviesadas.
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Aziz, Muhammad A. "Predicting corporate financial distress in UK." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2007. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/34090.
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The motivation for empirical research in corporate financial distress prediction is clear: the early detection of financial distress and the use of corrective measures are preferable to protection under insolvency law. Many different models have been used to predict corporate financial distress, and choosing between them for empirical application is not straightforward. One objective of this research is providing a comprehensive review, clarifying the problem of model choice in empirical prediction of corporate financial distress. To that end, we conduct a meta-analysis of the literature reviewed in this thesis. This analysis supports the use of Multiple Discriminant Analysis on rather objective grounds. This study adopts a novel approach by using a large panel of UK-quoted firms (3135) from 1990 to 2004 and develops a multiple discriminant distress prediction model, using 58 firm-specific financial ratios. The results are also compared with cross-sectional data sets and using GDP growth rate as a control variable.
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Kapp, Daniel. "Financial crises : occurrence, costs and provisions." Thesis, Paris 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA010046.
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Les crises financières sont des interruptions fonctionnels extrêmes des systèmes monétaires et financiers. Cette thèse est consacrée à la compréhension des crises financières, leurs coûts, et tente de proposer quelques idées pour la protection contre des crises financières. Chapitre 1 tente d'expliquer pourquoi certains pays bénéficient de plus longues périodes de stabilité entre les crises financières que les autres. Il considère l'impact des politiques macro-prudentielles et réglementaires et introduit le modèle de mélange fini pour surmonter les problèmes économétriques des distributions asymétriques, biaisée, et multimodal. Dans le chapitre 2, une approche pour estimer les coûts de la production réelle des crises financières est proposée. L'approche de la distribution des pertes est utilisée pour étudier les événements de crises financières en termes de fréquence et de gravité. Un modèle théorique est développé dans le chapitre 3, cherchant la taille optimale et la fonction du mécanisme européen de stabilité. Le chapitre conclut que tout à la fois, 'Core' et 'Periphery' Europe ont un intérêt dans l'existence de l'ESM. Les contributions à l'ESM et sa taille varient considérablement en fonction des coûts et des effets de contagion. Les effets d'un outil de prévention des crises et des efforts pour diminuer l'opacité bancaire- des tests de résistance des banques-sont analysés au chapitre 4, pour évaluer dans quelle mesure les tests européens de résistance des banques ont exercé une influence sur les actions les CDS, ainsi que sur des structures de marché<br>Financial crises are extreme functional interruptions of the financial and monetary systems. This thesis is dedicated to the understanding of financial crises, their costs, and attempts to offer some insights for financial crisis provision. Chapter 1 tries to explain why some countries enjoy longer stability periods between financial crises than others. It considers the impact of macroeconomic and regulatory policies and introduces the Finite Mixture Model to overcome econometric problems of asymmetric, skewed, and multimodal distributions. In Chapter 2, an approach to estimate real output costs of financial crises is proposed. The Loss Distribution Approach is used to study financial crises events in terms of frequency and severity. A theoretical model is developed in Chapter 3, endeavouring the optimal size and the function of the European Stability Mechanism. The Chapter concludes that while both, 'Core' and 'Periphery' Europe have an interest in the existence of the ESM, contributions to the ESM and its size vary substantially depending on costs and spillover effects. The effects of a crisis prevention tool and effort to diminish bank opacity - bank stress tests - are analyzed in Chapter 4, gauging to what extent European bank stress tests exerted an influence on bank's stock and CDS returns, as well as market structures
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Oshiro, Renan Kenji. "Estruturas de governança corporativa e financial distress: há relação entre conselho de administração e empresas em financial distress?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/15858.
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Previous issue date: 2016-02-15<br>In this master’s thesis it was analyzed if there is a significant relationship among governance structures (structure and board composition) and financial distress. This essay focused on this issue because academic studies in corporate governance and its relation to financial distress are still largely unexplored. In addition, the topic has relevance in the corporate world, since understanding which board structures and its compositions would be more efficient to avoid financial distress is attractive for many stakeholders, mainly for shareholders and creditors. To check the existence of this relationship, it was used data from Brazilian public companies and logit models of financial distress were developed. With financial distress as response variable and starting from a base model with financial control variables, new determinants and combinations of these variables were added step by step to set up intermediate models. At last, the final model included all relevant explanatory variables. The variables can be classified into governance structure variables (DUA, GOV and COF), board quality (QUA) and ownership structure (PRO1 and PRO2). The following base models were used: Daily and Dalton (1994a) and an own model, which was developed to model better financial distress and its relation to the governance structure variables. In several tested models, significant relationships were found in the percentage of dependent directors (GOV), percentage of education’s elite directors (QUA), percentage of discriminated stock (PRO1) and percentage of relevant state stock ownership (PRO2). Hence, the hypothesis that more dependent directors, less education’s elite directors and less concentrated ownership structures contribute to a future financial distress situation cannot be rejected. On the other hand, in dummy variables as duality (DUA) and supervisory board (COF) were not found statistical significance<br>Nesta dissertação foi analisada se há uma relação significante entre estruturas de governança (estrutura e composição de conselho) e financial distress. Este trabalho focou neste tema porque os estudos acadêmicos em governança corporativa e sua relação com financial distress ainda são pouco explorados. Além disso, o tema tem relevância no mundo corporativo, pois entender quais estruturas e composições de conselho seriam mais eficientes para evitar financial distress é interessante para diversos stakeholders, principalmente para os acionistas e os credores. Para verificar a existência dessa relação, foram utilizados dados de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto e foram desenvolvidos modelos logit de financial distress. Sendo a variável resposta financial distress, partiu-se de um modelo base com variáveis financeiras de controle e, por etapas, foram adicionadas novos determinantes e combinações dessas variáveis para montar modelos intermediários. Por fim, o modelo final contou com todas as variáveis explicativas mais relevantes. As variáveis de estudo podem ser classificadas em variáveis de estrutura de governança (DUA, GOV e COF), qualidade do conselho (QUA) e estrutura de propriedade (PRO1 e PRO2). Os modelos base utilizados foram: Daily e Dalton (1994a) e um próprio, desenvolvido para modelar melhor financial distress e sua relação com as variáveis de estrutura de governança. Nos diversos modelos testados foram encontradas relações significativas no percentual de conselheiros dependentes (GOV), percentual de conselheiros da elite educacional (QUA), percentual de ações discriminadas (PRO1) e percentual de ações de acionista estatal relevante (PRO2). Portanto, não se descartam as hipóteses de que mais conselheiros dependentes, menos conselheiros da elite educacional e estrutura de propriedade menos concentrada contribuem para uma situação de financial distress futura. Entretanto, as variáveis dummy de dualidade (DUA) e de conselho fiscal (COF) não apresentaram significância estatística
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Rutishauser, Philipp. "Unternehmen im Financial Distress Modelle zur Krisenfrüherkennung /." St. Gallen, 2006. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/03601762001/$FILE/03601762001.pdf.
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Stulpinienė, Vaida. "Financial distress prediction model of family farms." Doctoral thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2014. http://vddb.library.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2013~D_20140123_133545-56537.
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Designed financial distress prediction model is intended directly for the farmer (decision-maker) in order to diagnose the farm’s financial condition and predict the likelihood of financial distress, by using financial information of his farm. There are identified family farm characteristics in which family farms have higher risks to run in financial distress and are guidelines for the family farms that intend to more carefully monitor and control their financial condition. The aim of the research: after analysing the conception of financial distress and identifying the factors determining the financial condition as well as related indicators and prediction models, to methodologically justify and design financial distress prediction model of family farms.<br>Parengtas finansinio išsekimo prognozavimo modelis tiesiogiai skirtas ūkininkui, kuris panaudodamas savo ūkio finansinę informaciją, galėtų diagnozuoti ūkio finansinę būklę ir iš anksto numatyti finansinio išsekimo grėsmę. Disertacijoje nustatytos ir įvardintos ūkininkų ūkių charakteristikos, kurioms esant ūkiai turi didesnes grėsmes finansiškai išsekti, yra gairės ūkininkų ūkiams, kurie ketina atidžiau stebėti savo veiklą ir kontroliuoti finansinę būklę. Tyrimo tikslas – ištyrus finansinio išsekimo sampratą, identifikavus finansinę būklę sąlygojančius veiksnius, indikatorius ir prognozavimo modelius, metodologiškai pagrįsti ir parengti ūkininkų ūkių finansinio išsekimo prognozavimo modelį.
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Musmar, Firas Fathi. "Financial Distress in the Health Care Business." ScholarWorks, 2016. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/3053.
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Sixty-four United States hospitals closed for poor organizational performance during 2010 through 2016. Because of hospital closures, community members experienced delays in obtaining needed care, reduced access to specialty care, and increased travel distances. Based on the balanced scorecard model theory, the purpose of this qualitative single case study was to explore strategies that 10 health care leaders used at a healthcare organization in central Texas to prevent financial distress. Semistructured interviews were conducted and archival organizational accounting records were reviewed, including company surveys with employees and patients. Data were thematically analyzed and triangulated to ensure the trustworthiness of interpretations. The findings identified 3 themes: effective leadership to improve organizational performance; training, skills development and continuous learning to improve performance; and customer focus strategies to increase customer satisfaction. The findings of this study may contribute to social change by improving access to healthcare services, increasing access to specialty care, and increasing customer satisfaction.
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Stoecker, Rick L. Arnold Robert L. "An examination of instructional costs in financially distressed and other Illinois school districts." Normal, Ill. Illinois State University, 1989. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ilstu/fullcit?p9014759.
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Thesis (Ed. D.)--Illinois State University, 1989.<br>Title from title page screen, viewed November 1, 2005. Dissertation Committee: Robert L. Arnold (chair), G. Alan Hickrod, Calvin C. Jackson, Patricia H. Klass, Ronald L. Laymon. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-88) and abstract. Also available in print.
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Markeprand, Tobias. "Incomplete financial markets : Volatility and transaction costs." Kbh. : Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, 2009. http://www.econ.ku.dk/Forskning/Publikationer/ph.d_serie_2007-/red132.pdf.
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Sang, Le Quang. "The value of financial flexibility, corporate investment policy and financial distress risk." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2018. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/427735/.
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This study investigates the effects of the value of financial flexibility (VOFF) on corporate investment policies and distress risk. I empirically examine three main following research questions: (1) Does VOFF affect level and efficiency of firm's capital investment, (2) does VOFF impact corporate ability to invest in working capital and the speed of working capital adjustment, and (3) does VOFF explain the variation in a firm's default probability. The study is mainly motivated by the well-established theoretical framework that suggests that financial flexibility enables a firm to finance desirable projects in a timely and value-maximising manner when such profitable opportunities arise and it may reduce the likelihood of financial distress under the effects of negative shocks in cash flows (Gamba and Triantis, 2008). However, to date, no systematic investigation has considered whether and to which extent the value, not level, of financial flexibility can affect firm investment, whether VOFF's effects are the same across different types of investment and how it can explain the variations in failure probability. I use a sample of 8024 non-financial US firms over the period of 1978-2013 and employ multiple methods under the panel data methodology to answer the research and hypothesis questions. I find that higher VOFF can lead to lower investment level in fixed capital, a higher likelihood of bypassing investment opportunities, and more likelihood of suffering from higher investment distortions, especially underinvestment, in long-term assets. In addition, the negative relation between investment efficiency and VOFF is higher for more financially constrained firms. With regards to the effect of VOFF on firm policy in working capital management, I uncover that firms whose shareholders confer a higher value on financial flexibility suffer from both underinvestment and overinvestment problems, particularly the latter. I also find that VOFF accelerates the SOA of WC and that such factors as WC approach, financial constraint, and types of industry have bearing effects on the relation between VOFF and SOA of WC. I also show that firms with higher VOFF suffer less from the risk of failure. I find that the main mechanism for this negative relation is via a reduction in total leverage, especially short-term debts. I also evince that such factors as firm rigidity (a proxy for operating flexibility), credit-default swaps trading and managerial quality have moderating effects that exert possible influences on the nature and strength of the credit risk-VOFF relation. The thesis's results advance the literature in several ways. First, it provides evidence in support of theoretical works that emphasise the precautionary motive of cash holding, the value of liquid assets, and their implications for corporate decisions (Gamba and Triantis, 2008, Riddick and Whited, 2009, Bolton et al., 2011). Second, while existing approaches aim at to measure the level of financial flexibility, I, in contrast, follow a new approach to measure the economic value of financial flexibility by using the stock market reaction as a means to an end to measure VOFF and subsequently utilize this measure to study different issues on corporate investment and credit risk. I view my thesis as an extension to Rapp et al.'s (2014) works by providing new empirical evidence of possible effects of VOFF a firm's investment policy and credit risk. From a practical viewpoint, this thesis highlights the impacts of financial flexibility on real investment decisions and its risk relevance. The findings also help to explain why financial flexibility is a first-order consideration in making financial decisions among the top CEO around the globe (Graham and Harvey, 2001, Brounen et al., 2004, Campello et al., 2010). Furthermore, since VOFF is found to have significantly explanatory power for the variation in credit risk it can help to increase the information set to predict credit risk by relevant parties such as managers, suppliers, and lenders, among others.
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Remer, Laxmi Sven. "Corporate Financial Distress and Recovery : The UK Evidence." Thesis, City University London, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.511767.
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Lu, Shun-Lung, and 呂順隆. "Financial Distress Costs－Evidence from Listed Companies in Taiwan." Thesis, 2002. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74251755072202452992.
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碩士<br>東海大學<br>企業管理學系碩士班<br>90<br>This study discusses the costs of financial distress resulted from thirty-three financial distress public firms in Taiwan from 1992 to 2001. This study is primarily divided into four parts. First, we examine what factors drive the sample firms into financial distress, estimating the costs of financial distress in order to observe the relationship between the costs of financial distress and the financial-distress-related variables after the financial distress happened. Furthermore, we verify the effects of adverse economic shock on financial distress costs in Taiwan. Finally, adding the response variables, we discuss whether the responses taken by the distressed firms can reduce their financial distress costs effectively.
The empirical results indicate firm performance and firm leverage are the primary factors that drive the public firms in Taiwan into financial distress, and averagely the financial distress costs are high. Discussing the relationship between the costs of financial distress and the financial-distress-related variables, we find that firm size﹑investment ratio﹑asset turnover﹑sales growth ratio included in firm characteristic are positively related to financial distress costs significantly, and debt ratio and EPS have significant negative effects on financial distress costs instead. Testing the average by Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon, we infer that large size﹑less debt﹑high investment level﹑superior operating ability﹑inferior profit-making ability and high level of growth tend to result in high financial distress costs after the financial distress happened.
In terms of firm governance, the holding and pledging ratio of the directors and supervisors both are significantly positive related to financial distress costs respectively, which imply that agency problem of the directors and supervisors might result in costly financial distress costs. In terms of external environment variables, market return ratio is negatively correlated to financial distress costs significantly, indicating that when market prosperity in the year before financial distress year is poor, it might damage the financial distress costs. The third quartile of industry return ratio is positively correlated to financial distress costs significantly, indicating that when the industry in which distressed firm locates has better performance than the whole industry, it would tend to result in higher financial distress costs.
Besides, the adverse economic shock do significantly affects the financial distress costs, and the firms that do not experience an adverse economic shock have higher financial distress costs than the ones that do experience an adverse economic shock. Finally, in terms of responses, distressed firms tend to increase short-term finance in financial distress year, which would enhance the financial distress costs instead. If the distressed firms laid off employees in the next year, the costs of financial distress would be improved.
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Chen, Yu-Dan, and 陳禹丹. "The Effect of Default Risk on Equity Liquidity When Expected Financial Distress Costs are High." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/59234783562037825954.
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碩士<br>國立交通大學<br>財務金融研究所<br>93<br>This dissertation is to demonstrate the relation between default risk and equity liquidity. Market makers will widen spreads if the trading proportion of informed traders increases and uninformed traders exit market as firm’s financial performance deteriorates. Increased default probability usually concealed by managers will enlarge asymmetric information costs and thus market makers offer greater bid-ask spreads to protect their profit. Default risk measured by Merton’s option pricing model to investigate whether firms with financial distress possess higher bid-ask spreads. Furthermore, we take the panel threshold regression model to examine the possible non-linear relationship between default risk and equity liquidity. The result shows default risk observably has more significant and stronger relation to equity liquidity in the corporate scandal disaster period than usual time. We infer that results in corporate scandal and listed company bankruptcy events always lead to a chain reaction. The happenings of firm’s bankrupt and enormous dump of prices are generally clustered, in particular for the firms with deteriorating financial condition.
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Chen, Hung-Tse, and 陳宏澤. "Accounting Measures of Corporate Liquidity, Debt Policy, and Costs of Financial Distress for Taiwan Publicly Listed Companies." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/40102412863243803080.
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碩士<br>國立高雄第一科技大學<br>金融營運所<br>94<br>ABSTRACT
Financial distress results from a mismatch between the available liquid assets of
a company and its interest expenditure generated by debt. Mechanisms for dealing
with financial distress rectify the mismatch by either restructuring the liquidity ratio
or restructuring the debt contract. The costs of financial distress are those resulting
from the costs of liquid asset restructuring or the costs of debt contract restructuring.
The costs of financial distress have an important implication for financial policy of a
company. It will affect the company’s risk and profitability.
The multiple linear regression and the stepwise regression are applied to
investigate the relationship between the costs of financial distress and (1) the liquid
asset ratio, and (2) the debt ratio of the public companies listed in the TSE (Taiwan
Stock Exchange).
The empirical results show that：The financial distress costs have positive
impact on the liquid asset ratio. Furthermore, it is negatively related between the
financial distress costs and debt ratio. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the
hypothesized relationship of the study. The stepwise regression procedure further
shows that the significant variables in the regression model for companies listed in
TSE market. It, therefore, implies that the considerations, i.e. the predictor variables
in the regression models, for making proper decisions of financial policy should be adjusted for different industries.
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Hsieh, Yi-Hsiu, and 謝宜秀. "A Further Investigation on Financial Distress Costs of TSE-listed Firms: Empirical Findings from Stock Price Changes and the Market Adjusted Model." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/n6vb2v.
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碩士<br>朝陽科技大學<br>企業管理系碩士班<br>94<br>This thesis examines two principal research issues: First, the present study makes use of stock prices for TSE-listed companies of which a financial distress takes place as reported in the press during the period from 1998 to 2004 to estimate financial distress costs. Second, in Taiwan, besides “maintaining normal trading”, the Securities and Futures Commission, Ministry of Finance is empowered to decide the modes of transaction for financially distressed firms including “cash transaction only”, “suspended trading”, and “delisting” which allows us to estimate further financial distress costs under different categories.
After collecting 104 TSE-listed companies which took place financial distress during the period from 1998 to 2004, the primary empirical findings are as follows: Concerning the first research issue, for the entire sample, the present study finds that the financially distressed firms during the period from the date of reporting in the press to 20 transaction days after the date in change of transaction mode have registered an average 50%~60% reduction in shareholder wealth. Moreover, the magnitude of 50%~60% reduction has reached statistical significance. Concerning the second research issue, the major findings are as follows: the present study finds that, in terms of the financial distress costs, the “delisting” group is largest, the financial distress costs of the “maintaining normal trading” group is lowest, and the “cash transaction only/suspended trading” group falls somewhere in between.
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Figueira, Milton José Andrade. "US airways: the ugly girl gets married again." Master's thesis, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/35359.
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This case follows US Airways’ performance from inception to the potential merger with bankrupted
American Airlines in 2012. Throughout the case, several events that endangered the existence of US
Airways are brought into light. These events serve as basis to introduce the value of leverage and
financial distress costs. Moreover, the case reflects on the decision between out-of-court restructuring
and chapter 11, while assessing distressed mergers and acquisitions. Finally, the potential merger is
analyzed and the proposed solution is that new equity should be split 69-31 per cent between
American Airlines’ unsecured creditors and shareholders, and US Airways’ shareholders.
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Shu-Ping, Shih, and 施淑萍. "Financial distress predictive model and the financial characteristic of financial distress companies." Thesis, 2000. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/00408871848432497327.
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碩士<br>東吳大學<br>會計學系<br>88<br>In order to found financial distress predictive model for banks and financial companies, the study establishes a predictive model of financial distress by expanding the samples and the definition of financial distress of previous studies. The sample separates them into two parts. One establishes financial distress predictive model for stocks companies listed in Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation. The other is for banking institutions financing over thirty million dollars for public-trade segments. However, judging from the definition of financial distress, the meaning of financial distress company lies on the stock companies listed in Taiwan stock exchange corporations whose stocks are required to be full delivery, temporary suspend and stopping suspension From the appearance of the banking loan public-traded market, the definition of the financial distress firms indicates that the receivables of these firms become overdue, on demand, and bad debt. Using the matched pairs designed, the sample of financial distress firms and healthy firms were drawn in the same industry and approximately the same asset size and fiscal year. Furthermore, this study also discusses the financial characteristic of financial distress companies. In addition, the companies with financial distress are discussed in the study.
From the viewpoint of variable of financial distress predictive model, seven financial rations practiced by banks are selected in this study. Moreover, audit opinions about going-concern or significant uncertain and cash flow ratio are also included in the study.
The study includes thirty financial distress firms and fifty-five healthy firms in listed market from 1995 to 1999. It also contains sixty companies whose receivables become overdue, on demand and bad debt, related sixty healthy firms, forty-one firms whose receivables become bad debt, and related forty-one healthy firms from 1995 to1998. The future developments of these financial distress firms from 1993 to 1997 are discussed in the study.
In all samples, using the test of mean difference population of two groups, the financial distress firms and healthy firms have significant difference on the firms’ ability to pay interests and the cash flow of financial activity. In the alarm logistic model of financial distress, the cash flow from financial activity is as an important predictor. These both imply cash flow from financial activity can predict the probability of firm to appear financial distress or the latter financial situation of the financial distress firms. In addition, in listed company sample finds the possibility of financial distress is positively associated with the CPA’s opinion about going-concern or significant uncertainly. And the model’s prediction with CPA’s opinion is more correct than the one without CPA opinion in the listed market, but, however, the result is not founded in the public-traded firms with default or bad debt.
The percentage of correctly predicted of the financial characteristic of financial distress companies of model is 62.84%. The prediction is more correct with the close to the year of financial distress excluding the traded-public firms with default. The percentages of correctly classified firm in the listed firms, and the public-traded firms incurred default, in the public- traded firms incurred bad debt is 67.69%-95.08%, 58.43%-80%, 57.14%-78.57%, respectively.
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Chen, Chin-Tsun, and 陳進村. "Analysis of Financial Distress." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/33122709897442072312.
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碩士<br>國立中興大學<br>高階經理人碩士在職專班<br>94<br>This study employs Ohlson’s (1980) logit model to detect the probabilities of financial distress of Taiwanese public companies. In addition to financial variables traditionally used in the literature, corporate governance factors are incorporated into the logit model. Also I separate the sample of distressed companies into two groups: insufficient cash flows and human manipulations. The results show that adding corporate governance factors can increase the explanatory power of financial distress. It implies that distressed companies do have serious agency problems, in which major shareholders expropriate wealth from minor shareholders. Furthermore, I find that financial variables have a stronger prediction on the distress probabilities of the group with insufficient cash flows and corporate governance factors can better explain the group of human manipulations.
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Wen, Tsou Hui, and 鄒惠雯. "Financial Distress Prediction Model." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/13836405838104904375.
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碩士<br>健行科技大學<br>國際企業管理研究所<br>101<br>In this study, logical construct financial distress logistic regression model for the study period from 2007 to 2011, the Hong Kong enterprises as the research object, assess Hong Kong''s corporate financial variables on the early warning model predictive ability; empirical results show that the financial ratio variables debt and total asset turnover ratio greater impact on the enterprise; insufficient if the company''s profitability, debt ratio is higher, but will cause cash flow problems of the situation, the enterprise is the higher the likelihood that the financial crisis. In this study, Logica logistic regression model prediction accuracy, the closer point in time of financial distress, the higher the predictive ability of the model overall accuracy rate of 76.6%.
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chi-hau, Teng, and 鄧志豪. "using divided samples to detect financial-distress company--new financial distress forcasting model." Thesis, 2000. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/49893131152954942484.
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碩士<br>國立政治大學<br>金融學系<br>88<br>This paper choose 30 financial - distress companies in Taiwan stock market during Asian financial crisis and divide them into four samples－（1）bad performance in main business（2）too much investment（3）buying stocks by co-company（4）cheat by hierarchy. We compare the financial - distress forecasting model''s distinction ability , using correct rate, between divided and undivided samples. The result is that financial - distress forecasting model from divided samples have better performance in correct rate. So using divided samples to build financial-distress forecasting model is meaningful. At the mean time, we use F test for testing the hypothesis that the distressed company''s mean and normal company''s mean is the same. There are four financial ratios which are significant in the four samples, they are (1)the ratio of adaptable cash flow、(2)the ratio of extra-business expense、(3)EPS及(4)debt ratio。
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Huang, Yi-Jie, and 黃怡潔. "What Financial Report Information Signals Bank Financial Distress?" Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/05330348386079442492.
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碩士<br>元智大學<br>財務金融學系<br>98<br>The aim of this study is to figure a more complete framework to detect troubled financial institutions. Past researches measure the fundamentals of banks mainly by using the financial ratios which are constructed from financial statements. However, nowadays banks involve in many off-balance sheet activities that may cause a huge amount of losses, and this type of risk is not reflected from balance sheet. Moreover, the users of financial reports observe the main asset types that banks hold, but some specific information about the underlying assets, such as the risky level, might be unavailable for the public. On the basis of CAMEL structure, we add some off-balance sheet items and the extent of investing in risky assets. We expect the new structure to enhance the prediction power on the possibility of financial institutions to be in trouble. The main results show that liquidity and capital adequacy of banks and what the extent of banks’ involvement in securitized business are important warning indicators of bank failures. Besides, macroeconomic environment, such as less concentrated banking sector and high GDP growth, is also main cause of destabilizing banks’ soundness.
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Kang, Hsiu-Ting, and 康秀婷. "Ownership Structure, Diversification, Financial Policy and Financial Distress." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19530983112734125885.
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碩士<br>銘傳大學<br>企業管理學系碩士班<br>99<br>The financial crisis from U.S. in 2007 not only negatively influenced the worldwide economies, but also had impacts on some of Taiwan’s companies involving financial distresses. Some literatures mentioned that ownership structure could be one of key factors resulting in financial crisis in Taiwan. The other suggested that diversified operations for a firm may face both maximizing profit and increasing operation risk. The objectives of this study based on the methods of logistic regression and general regression are: (1) investigating the relationships between ownership structure (or diversification strategy) and financial crisis, and (2) analyzing the mediation effect of financial policy on the financial crisis. The sample is collected during the period of 2007-2009. The results indicate that the Herfindahl index, the stock holding ratios of institution ownership, and the debt ratio have significantly impacts on the possibility of occurring financial distresses, and that the mediation effect of financial policy is not significant.
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Kao, Wei-Bo, and 高偉柏. "Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress." Thesis, 2001. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/70643773063389329545.
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張思佳. "Corporate Governance before Financial Distress." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/73056485246051039413.
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碩士<br>國立彰化師範大學<br>商業教育學系<br>97<br>This study examines the variation of corporate governance before financial distress. According to the corporate governance index documented by Chen et al. (2007), we compare the differences of corporate governance index variables between good companies and bad companies. We find that not all of the corporate governance index variables will warn us before financial distress. In addition, the differences of corporate governance index variables between good companies and bad companies are significant.
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Hsiao, Ching-Han, and 蕭清漢. "Financial Distress Prediction Using Data Mining." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/79449758562654212379.
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碩士<br>中國文化大學<br>會計學系<br>104<br>To predict the financial crisis of enterprise in the past using traditional regression models, many scholars have been using data mining method of forecasting enterprises financial crisis. The accuracy has improved, but it is incomplete in the literature. This study uses data mining to forecast a business's financial crisis. The data is from TEJ during year 2004 to 2014. In the first stage, we using neural network, stepwise regres-sion and decision tree C5.0. In the second stage we combine with two artificial intelli-gence algorithms “ decision tree CHAID ”, and “ decision tree CART ” to establish two stages of financial crisis predicting models. The results show that NN+CART, SR+CART and C5.0+CART have the highest accuracy of 90%.
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Lin, Chili, and 林琪莉. "The Study of Financial Distress Syndrome." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/66830199496725126120.
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碩士<br>東吳大學<br>會計學系<br>92<br>Several requirements are required by SEC for the listing companies, such as diversity of ownership, capital structure, profitability and the minimum capital amounts. The corporations operating are in shape. Due to the business operating risk or the capital market risk, some listed companies might come to the financial problems.
Human being and corporations are organism and operate under the same mechanism. On the subject of corporations, before facing financial distress there are some hints, which might be revealed and observed. Foretokens are shown some where. Transparently, through gathering the available data and thereby understanding the whole story, we are able to conclude the symptoms of financial distress syndrome.
This study is different from others in financial distress area. Most of the papers talk about the prediction model of financial distress, but we want to derive some nature and behavior of financial distress. Citing clinical medicine, we view financial distress as an imbalanced operating of corporation. Hence we divide the characteristic of financial distress into three groups.
According to the evidence, the symptoms of each group are quite different. Primary distress syndrome faces liquidity crisis serially and we have discovered the omen at the beginning. But the others have no intense pressure on liquidity.
We also find that primary distress syndrome devoted on major operating activity with buying many manufacturing asset to produce product. However the operating activity is inefficient. But there are no significant manufacturing assets of the other two groups.
Both primary and secondary distress syndrome get abnormal deviation with changeable major operating and the minor operating for last three years prior to occurrence. But we discover that there is not much significant pattern of symptom in complication distress syndrome but had strong cash investment rate. We conclude that the symptom of each element might get mixing and not easy to detect.
To sum up, there are many signals showed out prior 3 years to occurrence of financial distress. Comparing to early stage, the symptom is obvious in the late stage. If the major operation gets inefficient, major and minor operation income get abnormal deviation at the same time, financial distress will take place soon.
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Lin, Rong-Yi, and 林容以. "Corporate Governance in Financial Distress Companies." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19487363692923864482.
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碩士<br>世新大學<br>法律學研究所(含碩專班)<br>100<br>The issues of corporate governance have brought attention to the world since Enorn case. Unfortunately, our academy only pays attention to corporate financial situation but neglects the problems which may cause during corporate reorganization process.
The aim of corporate governance lies in making benefits for shareholders and the society at the same time avoiding company to offend against the law. Lowering down the agency cost to build corporate value maximization spontaneously. Under the condition of corporate personality exists that must comply with the rules of corporate governance. Even corporate personality still exist, implementing the corporate governance shall take further consideration when facing corporate reorganization process.
This dissertation based on corporate governance to carry out the concept of agency cost and corporate reorganization which is adoptable under the premise by making reviews from theory to practice. Focus on analyzing fiduciary duty of corporate owner in order to reflect the difficulties of operating and implementing the present law of corporate reorganization. At the end, make an attempt to link with the subject of corporate social responsibility and discover the new direction for corporate reorganization.
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Lin, Yi-Ling, and 林禕玲. "Venture Capitalists in Distress Financial Companies." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/13202646168948389230.
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碩士<br>元智大學<br>財務金融學系<br>95<br>Since venture capitalists can help companies promote their operating performance and venture capitalists will continue to play a role of monitor after IPO. However, there are still many VC-backed IPO that faced financial distress problem and bankruptcy. This paper explores the characteristics of venture capital fund which invests in the financial distress companies and this paper also discusses several features of the financial distress companies.
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張媛婷. "Diversification, Corporate Governance, and Financial Distress." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/23736833137956227029.
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碩士<br>國立政治大學<br>會計研究所<br>95<br>This study employs discrete-time hazard model to investigate how the distress-diversification sensitivity is moderated depending on the level of corporate governance in nested models which sequentially incorporate diversification and then corporate governance as a moderator. The findings show that diversification reduces the possibility of financial distress while corporate governance moderates the diversification effect on financial distress.
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Shen, Chang-Han, and 沈昌翰. "Predicting Corporate Financial Distress in Taiwan." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/31808411140680089876.
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碩士<br>國立臺灣大學<br>國際企業學研究所<br>95<br>Since the late 1990s, the amount of credit risk taken by banks has increased so that the ability to predict company’s default probability has become a critical issue of risk management. This thesis aims to develop a financial distress prediction model, which is based on the KMV model and utilizes historical default probability data from the S&P and Taiwan Ratings Corporation. We hope this model will meet the requirements under the New Basel Capital Accord.
Moreover, this thesis focuses on comparing the forecast accuracy of option pricing model and credit scoring model. We use the KMV-S&P model developed in our research as a representative of option pricing model, and choose a Z-Score model for Taiwan’s companies to represent the credit scoring model. Through intra-cohort analysis, logit regression method and power curve, we investigate the relative informativeness regarding financial distress of the models. The findings of our research are as follows:
1.As for the KMV-S&P model, first-order correlation stock price volatility and total debt are the best agents of equity volatility and default point, respectively.
2.We compare the KMV-S&P model and local Z-Score model in their predicting corporate financial distress with the intra-cohort analysis and logit regression methods; the results indicate that both models have significant predictive ability. However, the alternative method, power curve, concludes that the KMV-S&P model outperforms the local Z-Score model.
3.Although the power curve shows that KMV-S&P model is superior in predicting financial distress of Taiwan’s companies, the intra-cohort analysis and logit regression methods indicate that both models have equal predictive abilities. Therefore, we suggest that both models provide incremental information in measuring credit risk.
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Jan, Yitzung, and 詹益宗. "Comparison Between Financial Distress Prediction Models." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/86423538258426182202.
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碩士<br>國立交通大學<br>財務金融研究所<br>94<br>Based on the data of Taiwan corporations trading in TSE and OTC, this study used financial accounting variables and market variables to construct financial distress prediction models, such as Logit model, MDA model and discrete-time hazard model. With such methodology, I examined whether the added-in market variables could enhance the model’s discrimination ability and predicting capability or not, furthermore, I compared the accuracy of three statistical models. This study classified the variables into four categories, which are financial accounting variable group, financial accounting variable plus market variable group, market variable group and Shumway’s variable group, separately. The methods used in analyzing the models’ prediction accuracy are the default probability table, misclassification table, ROC curve and AUC, and EMC.
The empirical results showed that the best model to discriminate in-sample data is Logit model composed of financial accounting variable plus market variable group; however, the best model to predict out-sample data is composed by financial accounting variable plus market variable group and Shumway’s variable group, but there are no difference between three statistical models in predicting capabilities. In summary, adding market variables does really enhance discrimination ability of in-sample data, but it doesn’t obviously enhance the prediction ability of out-sample data. Moreover, it is better to use financial distress prediction models alternatively in judging the tendency of the out-sample default firms.
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LIANG, QING-YUAN, and 梁清源. "The judgement of financial distress model." Thesis, 1992. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/05665700240579551679.
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Sera, Roxana. "Financial distress prediction for portuguese SMEs." Master's thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/1822/69982.
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Dissertação de mestrado em Finance<br>In Portugal, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent 99.9% of the total number of
companies and are key generators of employment and contributors to the country`s economy. Given
their key role and the fact that their main source of funding comes from financial institutions, it is vital
that they have easy access to diversified financing instruments as well as the capacity of presenting their
activity and results in an efficient way in order to gain access to them.
In this context, a way of interpreting the information available about a company in a clear, concise and
efficient manner is through the application of an accounting - based financial distress model. The analysis
provided by such an instrument is beneficial to both financial institutions, that can use the results in order
to understand the general situation of the company, and to the company`s management, who can foresee
and prevent eventual financial problems.
The objective of this study is to identify the main financial ratios that are relevant in order to discriminate
between financially distressed and healthy companies and estimate financial distress prediction models
based on them then use the estimated parameters to predict the probability of financial distress in
Portuguese SMEs.
In order to obtain a more balanced data set of companies the propensity score method, with matching of
one-to-one as well as one-to-many, was applied. The model estimation was made with insolvent
companies` data from one year prior to insolvency. Validation tests were performed on data samples for
one, two and three years before insolvency, as well as for years one to three in a joint data set and also
for the entire set of insolvent companies available, up to six years prior to insolvency.
The five variables found to be the best predictors of insolvency are Current Assets to Total Assets,
Operating Cash Flow to Total Assets, Operating Cash Flow to Debt, Retained Earnings to Total Assets and
Equity to Debt. The overall forecasting accuracy of the final model was of over 85%, by which we conclude
that the model could be successfully applied to the Portuguese market, in the context of the SMEs.<br>Em Portugal, as Pequenas e Médias Empresas (PMEs) representam 99.9% do número total de empresas
e são um fator chave para a geração de emprego, com uma contribuição elevada para a economia geral
do país. Considerando o papel estratégico desempenhado e o fato de que a maior fonte de recursos para
as PMEs são as instituições financeiras, é fundamental que essas tenham tanto facilidade de acesso à
instrumentos financeiros diversificados, quanto a possibilidade de apresentar a sua atividade e resultados
obtidos de uma maneira adequada que lhes garante acesso a esses instrumentos.
Nesse contexto, a aplicação de um modelo de previsão de insolvência baseado na análise de rácios
financeiros é uma maneira de interpretar a informação disponível sobre uma empresa de uma forma
clara, concisa e eficiente. A análise facilitada por tal instrumento beneficia tanto as instituições
financeiras, que podem interpretar os resultados obtidos para melhor entender a situação geral da
empresa, quanto os gestores da empresa, para quais facilita a detecção e prevenção de eventuais
problemas financeiros.
O objetivo deste estudo é identificar os principais rácios financeiros relevantes para distinguir entre
empresas em dificuldades financeiras e empresas saudáveis, estimar com base neles um modelo de
previsão de insolvência e utilizar os parámetros estimados para previsão de dificuldades financeiras nas
PMEs portuguesas.
Para obter uma amostra mais equilibrada de empresas foi aplicado o método Propensity Score Matching,
com pareamentos de um-para-um e um-para-muitos. O modelo foi estimado com base nos dados
financeiros de empresas insolventes de um ano antes da insolvência. Testes de validação foram feitos
em amostras de um, dois e três anos antes da insolvência, amostra de um a três anos antes da falência,
bem como no inteiro conjunto de empresas com dados disponíveis, até seis anos antes da insolvência.
As cinco variáveis que mostraram melhor capacidade de previsão da insolvência são: Ativo Corrente/
Total do Ativo, Fluxo de Caixa Operacional/ Total do Ativo, Fluxo de Caixa Operacional/ Total do Ativo,
Resultados Transitados/ Total do Ativo e Patrimônio Líquido/ Total do Passivo. A capacidade total
preditiva do modelo é acima de 85%, o que leva à conclusão de que o modelo pode ser aplicado ao
mercado Português, no contexto das PMEs.
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Falcato, Inês Fazeres Marques. "Financial distress determinants of portuguese firms." Master's thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/35292.
Full textAbstract:
This dissertation aims to: (1) investigate the most determinant factors responsible for the financial distress of Portuguese firms, (2) identify the most common causes for the rejection of firms’ restructuring plans and (3) understand if the state and condition of the company both when it asks for help and when it initiates its restructuring plan affect their survival in the future.
Financial distress determinants are identified by analysing the companies that applied for Processo Especial de Revitalização (PER) and by comparing them to analogous healthy firms. The impact of these factors on companies’ likelihood of distress and survival is acknowledged through logistic regressions. The variables included in the models considered the context of Portuguese companies and aimed to account simultaneously for endogenous and exogenous distress factors.
The findings suggest that both endogenous and exogeneous factors impact the likelihood of firms’ financial distress. Endogenous factors, such as companies’ corporate governance and capital structures, asset efficiency and profitability levels influence both their likelihood of distress and survival in the long term. Exogenous factors such as the business cycle proved to be relevant as well to explain these two events.
Results also verified that restructuring measures focusing on the reorganisation of firms’ assets, restructuration of debt, recovery of profitability and liquidity have a significant impact on their likelihood of survival in the future.<br>Esta dissertação tem três objetivos fundamentais: (1) investigar os principais fatores responsáveis pela ocorrência de dificuldades financeiras em empresas Portuguesas (2) identificar as causas mais comuns para a rejeição dos seus planos de restruturação e (3) perceber se as condições em que as empresas se encontram quando concorrem aos planos de restruturação influenciam a sua sobrevivência no futuro.
Os fatores que contribuem para a ocorrência de dificuldades financeiras são identificados numa primeira fase, através da análise das empresas que concorreram ao Processo Especial de Revitalização e posteriormente por comparação das mesmas com outras empresas que não registaram qualquer dificuldade financeira nos períodos analisados.
As variáveis incluídas nos modelos consideram as características das empresas Portuguesas e abrangem fatores que lhes são endógenos e exógenos. A relevância destas variáveis é subsequentemente avaliada através de regressões logísticas.
Os resultados obtidos mostram que fatores internos como a estrutura de governação corporativa da empresa, a estrutura de capital, a eficiência do ativo e a rentabilidade são determinantes para a ocorrência de dificuldades financeiras e para a falência das empresas. Fatores externos como as flutuações no ciclo económico explicam também estes dois fenómenos. Medidas de recuperação empresarial centradas na restruturação do ativo e da dívida das empresas, na recuperação da rentabilidade e da liquidez têm uma repercussão significativa na probabilidade de sobrevivência das mesmas no futuro.
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WANG, HSIAO-YU, and 王筱瑜. "Financial Distress Prediction and Stock Returns." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/02812360762111558985.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立中正大學<br>財務金融系研究所<br>104<br>This study explores the relationship between default risk and stock returns. There are many kinds of financial distress prediction models and I choose financial distress prediction models constructed by univariate analysis, discriminant analysis and regression analysis. Using bankruptcy prediction models as signals, I buy high-default risk stocks and sell low-default-risk stocks at the same time and compare their returns.
The results show that financial distress prediction models shown as function forms can’t be signals, only using financial ratios can generate significant differences between high-default-risk and low-default-risk firms. In addition, high-default risk firms earn lower returns than low-default risk firms.
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Shin-YiWu and 吳欣怡. "Exercise of ESOs and financial distress." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47362686267583597120.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立成功大學<br>會計學系碩博士班<br>100<br>Firms typically have two ways to delivery shares to their employees when they exercise the employee stock options (ESOs) .Firms can either acquire treasury shares from the open market or issue new shares to employees. For firms that repurchase shares, the settlement of ESOs generates cash outflows, which reduce net assets available to service debt and thereby negatively affect firms’ financial risk. By contrast, for firms that choose to issue new shares, the settlement of ESOs does not affect cash flows. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the ways that firms choose to fulfill the terms of ESO obligations affect firms’ financial risk.
To address our research questions, we collect publicly electronic industrial firms in Taiwan for the years 2004-2009.The empirical results suggest that the use of treasury stock to fulfill the ESO obligations has unfavorable effect on the issuer's financial risk. Conversely, the issuance of new shares to satisfy ESO exercises does not have unfavorable effect on the issuer's financial risk.
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Li, Chun-Hsuan, and 李純萱. "Constructing a Financial Distress Warning Model with Financial and Non-financial Indicators." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/75842806310770189989.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>中國文化大學<br>會計學系<br>99<br>Many companies have occurred financial distress, such as Enron, WorldCom, Procomp and Infodisc. Lehman Brothers also bankrupted in 2008. These companies bankrupted with no early warning signs. Investors are afraid of their stocks changing as tank stocks suddenly. Therefore, if there is a financial distress warning model that can prepare in advance, and avoid losing much money.
Considering the type of industry and firm size, this study adopts the samples of distressed companies in Taiwan from 2006 to 2010. This study also employs Logistic regression to analyze 171 companies and match the distressed and healthy companies in one to two.
This study aims to realize whether to add non-financial variables in the warning model can improve the ability of warning comparing with those just using financial variables. Hopefully, this warning model can provide the investors to classify companies whether they may occur financial distress and to reduce the investment and credit risks. The major result shows that the model which adds in non-financial variables has a better predicting ability.
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QI, WU-JUN, and 戚務君. "Using financial statement as analysis of financial distress in Taiwan." Thesis, 1991. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98741665447729211782.
Full text
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賴士詮. "Prediction of financial distress with text mining and financial indicators." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/r37695.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立政治大學<br>資訊管理學系<br>106<br>The financial crisis of listed companies not only threatens the interests of the enterprise and internal staff, but also makes investors face significant financial loss, and that could also lead to the chaos of financial environment. It is important to establish an effective early warning system for prediction of financial crisis. The early warning system can detect the financial deterioration of the company earlier and find the company which have potential crisis. It also can prevent and decrease the harm in the international financial markets.
Financial annual reports and financial news are unstructured text data, however, these unstructured text data also contain a lot of information about the financial status of the business. Although these public text data are plentiful and complete, past studies seldom explore the financial news which could reflect the company's internal financial operating conditions. Therefore, this study takes into account the unstructured text data to the early warning system for sentimental analysis. According to financial news of the past year to warn the company whether it is facing a crisis of collapse.
We adopt three algorithms (KNN, Naive Bayes, SVM) to classify sentiment of the financial news and observe the accuracy of the three algorithms. According to research result, SVM have the best accuracy among these three algorithms. In the section of financial ratio indicators, this study uses the seven major categories of financial ratios in the ZETA model of Altman (2000).
This study uses the statistics provided by the Taiwan Stock Exchange for companies which have terminated the listing of listed stocks from 2015 to 2017. We select 21 financial distress companies and other 42 normal companies without financial distress to train financial early warning model. We adopt logistic regression and random forest two data mining techniques to establish the model. However, the weakness of ZETA model is that the prediction accuracy will be greatly dropped over two years. This study introduces a hidden Markov model to improve the long-term prediction accuracy of the model.
In the financial early warning model established in this study, it can be found that the sentimental indicators of textual data are significantly affect the model and verify that textual data can reveal the internal financial status of the company. This paper provides a hybrid method which integrates text mining and hidden Markov model for prediction of financial distress for listed companies in Taiwan
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Min-HsienTsou and 鄒明憲. "The Prediction of Financial Distress with Macroeconomic Variables, Financial and Non-financial Factors." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/25234937270291369652.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立成功大學<br>財務金融研究所碩士在職專班<br>103<br>Using sample data of TSEC-listed and OTC-listed companies between 2001 and 2010, this study develops a financial distress forecasting model on a logit base. Different from most previous studies, besides six financial variables, this study adds in seven non-financial variables that are more difficult to be quantified and four macroeconomic variables for improving the forecasting capacity of the model. Moreover, in contrast to the conventional use of 0.5 as the financial distress critical value, this study chooses the critical probability based on the principle of minimizing Type I and Type II errors in order to enhance the forecasting efficacy of the distress forecasting model. The results suggest that for the development samples, the forecast accuracy of Model β, which comprises the macroeconomic variables, is better than of Model α. For the testing samples, though adding the macroeconomic variables into Model β does not improve the forecasting accuracy of the overall model, it can significantly reduce the probability of Type I error. From the perspective of credit risk analysis, it is important to reduce the probability of Type I error as much as forecast accuracy and Type II error permit. According to the analysis results, this study proposes that in general, Model β, which takes macroeconomic variables into consideration, could enhance the forecasting capacity.