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Journal articles on the topic 'Counterfactual reasoning'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 11 February 2022

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1

Rafetseder, Eva, and Josef Perner. "Is reasoning from counterfactual antecedents evidence for counterfactual reasoning?" Thinking & Reasoning 16, no. 2 (2010): 131–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2010.488074.

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2

Spellman, Barbara A., and Dieynaba G. Ndiaye. "On the relation between counterfactual and causal reasoning." Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30, no. 5-6 (2007): 466–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x07002725.

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AbstractWe critique the distinction Byrne makes between strong causes and enabling conditions, and its implications, on both theoretical and empirical grounds. First, we believe that the difference is psychological, not logical. Second, we disagree that there is a strict “dichotomy between the focus of counterfactual and causal thoughts.” Third, we disagree that it is easier for people to generate causes than counterfactuals.

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3

Zeki, S., O. R. Goodenough, Abigail A. Baird, and Jonathan A. Fugelsang. "The emergence of consequential thought: evidence from neuroscience." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 359, no. 1451 (2004): 1797–804. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2004.1549.

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The ability to think counterfactually about the consequence of one's actions represents one of the hallmarks of the development of complex reasoning skills. The legal system places a great emphasis on this type of reasoning ability as it directly relates to the degree to which individuals may be judged liable for their actions. In the present paper, we review both behavioural and neuroscientific data exploring the role that counterfactual thinking plays in reasoning about the consequences of one's actions, especially as it pertains to the developing mind of the adolescent. On the basis of assi

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4

HÉDOIN, CYRIL. "Institutions, rule-following and conditional reasoning." Journal of Institutional Economics 15, no. 1 (2018): 1–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1744137418000073.

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AbstractThis paper is a contribution to the advancement of a naturalistic social ontology. Individuals participate in an institutionalized practice by following rules. In this perspective, I show that the nature, the stability, and the dynamics of any institution depend on how people reason about states of affairs that do not occur. That means that counterfactual reasoning is essential in the working of institutions. I present arguments for the importance of counterfactuals as well as a game-theoretic framework to account for them. Since the role of counterfactuals does not directly transpire

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5

Hassanpour, Negar. "Counterfactual Reasoning in Observational Studies." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 33 (July 17, 2019): 9886–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v33i01.33019886.

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To identify the appropriate action to take, an intelligent agent must infer the causal effects of every possible action choices. A prominent example is precision medicine that attempts to identify which medical procedure will benefit each individual patient the most. This requires answering counterfactual questions such as: ""Would this patient have lived longer, had she received an alternative treatment?"". In my PhD, I attempt to explore ways to address the challenges associated with causal effect estimation; with a focus on devising methods that enhance performance according to the individu

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6

Trabasso, Tom, and Jake Bartolone. "Story understanding and counterfactual reasoning." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 29, no. 5 (2003): 904–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.29.5.904.

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7

Halpern, Joseph Y. "Hypothetical knowledge and counterfactual reasoning." International Journal of Game Theory 28, no. 3 (1999): 315–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001820050113.

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8

Leahy, Brian, Eva Rafetseder, and Josef Perner. "Basic Conditional Reasoning: How Children Mimic Counterfactual Reasoning." Studia Logica 102, no. 4 (2013): 793–810. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11225-013-9510-7.

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9

Ibeling, Duligur, and Thomas Icard. "Probabilistic Reasoning Across the Causal Hierarchy." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 34, no. 06 (2020): 10170–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v34i06.6577.

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We propose a formalization of the three-tier causal hierarchy of association, intervention, and counterfactuals as a series of probabilistic logical languages. Our languages are of strictly increasing expressivity, the first capable of expressing quantitative probabilistic reasoning—including conditional independence and Bayesian inference—the second encoding do-calculus reasoning for causal effects, and the third capturing a fully expressive do-calculus for arbitrary counterfactual queries. We give a corresponding series of finitary axiomatizations complete over both structural causal models

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10

Marcacci, Flavia. "Argumentation and counterfactual reasoning in Parmenides and Melissus." Revista Archai, no. 30 (May 10, 2020): e03004. http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/1984-249x_30_4.

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Parmenides and Melissus employ different deductive styles for their different kinds of argumentation. The former’s poem flows in an interesting sequence of passages: contents foreword, methodological premises, krisis, conclusions and corollaries. The latter, however, organizes an extensive process of deduction to show the characteristics of what is. In both cases, the strength of their argument rests on their deductive form, on the syntactical level of their texts: the formal structure of their reasonings help to identify the features and logical intersections of their thoughts. On the one han

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11

Girard, Patrick, and Marcus Anthony Triplett. "Ceteris paribus logic in counterfactual reasoning." Electronic Proceedings in Theoretical Computer Science 215 (June 23, 2016): 176–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.4204/eptcs.215.13.

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12

Esterling, Kevin M. "Citizen Reasoning within Counterfactual Democratic Institutions." PS: Political Science & Politics 52, no. 4 (2019): 650–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096519000878.

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13

Quelhas, Ana Cristina, and Ruth Byrne. "Reasoning with deontic and counterfactual conditionals." Thinking & Reasoning 9, no. 1 (2003): 43–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13546780244000105.

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14

Contreras, Fernando, Auria Albacete, Pere Castellví, Agnès Caño, Bessy Benejam, and José Manuel Menchón. "Counterfactual Reasoning Deficits in Schizophrenia Patients." PLOS ONE 11, no. 2 (2016): e0148440. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0148440.

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15

Rips, Lance J., and Brian J. Edwards. "Inference and Explanation in Counterfactual Reasoning." Cognitive Science 37, no. 6 (2013): 1107–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12024.

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16

Smallman, Rachel, and Amy Summerville. "Counterfactual thought in reasoning and performance." Social and Personality Psychology Compass 12, no. 4 (2018): e12376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12376.

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17

Gummerum, Michaela, Christopher Cribbett, Anna Nogueira Nicolau, and Rebecca Uren. "Counterfactual reasoning and moral emotion attribution." European Journal of Developmental Psychology 10, no. 2 (2013): 144–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17405629.2012.756394.

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18

Uckelman, Sara L. "Sit Verum Obligationes and Counterfactual Reasoning." Vivarium 53, no. 1 (2015): 90–113. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/15685349-05301005.

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In the early 1980s, Paul V. Spade advanced the thesis that obligational reasoning was counterfactual reasoning, based upon his interpretation of the obligationes of Walter Burley, Richard Kilvington, and Roger Swyneshed. Eleonore Stump in a series of contemporary papers argued against Spade’s thesis with respect to Burley and Swyneshed, provisionally admitting it for Kilvington with the caveat that Kilvington’s theory is by no means clear or non-idiosyncratic. In this paper, we revisit the connection between counterfactual reasoning and obligationes, focusing on one particular treatise, the an

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19

Rafetseder, Eva, Maria Schwitalla, and Josef Perner. "Counterfactual reasoning: From childhood to adulthood." Journal of Experimental Child Psychology 114, no. 3 (2013): 389–404. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2012.10.010.

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20

Meyer, J. J. Ch, and W. van der Hoek. "Counterfactual reasoning by (means of) defaults." Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 9, no. 3-4 (1993): 345–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01530938.

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21

Gregory, Dominic. "Counterfactual reasoning and knowledge of possibilities." Philosophical Studies 174, no. 4 (2016): 821–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11098-016-0707-2.

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22

Buchsbaum, Daphna, Sophie Bridgers, Deena Skolnick Weisberg, and Alison Gopnik. "The power of possibility: causal learning, counterfactual reasoning, and pretend play." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 367, no. 1599 (2012): 2202–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0122.

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We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. We suggest that exploratory childhood learning, childhood play in particular, and causal cognition are closely connected. We report an empirical study demonstrating one such connection—a link between pretend play and counterfactual causal reasoning. Preschool children given new information about a causal system made very similar inferences both when t

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23

NAKAMICHI, Keito. "Young children's counterfactual reasoning and make-believe." Proceedings of the Annual Convention of the Japanese Psychological Association 74 (September 20, 2010): 2EV089. http://dx.doi.org/10.4992/pacjpa.74.0_2ev089.

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24

Chung, Ha Na, and Soon Hyung Yi. "Children's Counterfactual Reasoning According to Task Conditions." Korean Journal of Child Studies 34, no. 6 (2013): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5723/kjcs.2013.34.6.1.

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25

Akatsuko, Noriko. "On the co-construction of counterfactual reasoning." Journal of Pragmatics 28, no. 6 (1997): 781–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0378-2166(97)00074-x.

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26

McGill, Ann L., and Jill G. Klein. "Contrastive and counterfactual reasoning in causal judgment." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 64, no. 6 (1993): 897–905. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.64.6.897.

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27

Stalnaker, Robert. "Knowledge, Belief and Counterfactual Reasoning in Games." Economics and Philosophy 12, no. 2 (1996): 133–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266267100004132.

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Deliberation about what to do in any context requires reasoning about what will or would happen in various alternative situations, including situations that the agent knows will never in fact be realized. In contexts that involve two or more agents who have to take account of each others' deliberation, the counterfactual reasoning may become quite complex. When I deliberate, I have to consider not only what the causal effects would be of alternative choices that I might make, but also what other agents might believe about the potential effects of my choices, and how their alternative possible

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28

Forster, Malcolm R. "Counterfactual Reasoning in the Bell-Epr Paradox." Philosophy of Science 53, no. 1 (1986): 133–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/289299.

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29

van Tiel, Bob, and Walter Schaeken. "Processing Conversational Implicatures: Alternatives and Counterfactual Reasoning." Cognitive Science 41 (March 25, 2016): 1119–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12362.

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30

Lucas, Christopher G., and Charles Kemp. "An improved probabilistic account of counterfactual reasoning." Psychological Review 122, no. 4 (2015): 700–734. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0039655.

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31

Revlin, Russell, Dustin P. Calvillo, and Stephanie Ballard. "Counterfactual Reasoning: resolving inconsistency before your eyes." Psychologica Belgica 45, no. 1 (2005): 47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5334/pb-45-1-47.

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32

SHERMAN, STEVEN J., and ALLEN R. McCONNELL. "The Role of Counterfactual Thinking in Reasoning." Applied Cognitive Psychology 10, no. 7 (1996): 113–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-0720(199611)10:7<113::aid-acp433>3.0.co;2-6.

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33

Nyhout, Angela, Lena Henke, and Patricia A. Ganea. "Children's Counterfactual Reasoning About Causally Overdetermined Events." Child Development 90, no. 2 (2017): 610–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cdev.12913.

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34

Girard, Patrick, and Marcus A. Triplett. "Prioritised ceteris paribus logic for counterfactual reasoning." Synthese 195, no. 4 (2017): 1681–703. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-016-1296-5.

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35

Lorini, Emiliano, and François Schwarzentruber. "A logic for reasoning about counterfactual emotions." Artificial Intelligence 175, no. 3-4 (2011): 814–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.artint.2010.11.022.

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36

Day, Mark. "Counterfactual reasoning and method in historical geography." Journal of Historical Geography 36, no. 3 (2010): 253–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.2009.12.001.

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37

Miller, D. J. "Counterfactual Reasoning in Time-Symmetric Quantum Mechanics." Foundations of Physics Letters 19, no. 4 (2006): 321–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10702-006-0797-8.

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38

Rafetseder, Eva, and Josef Perner. "Belief and Counterfactuality." Zeitschrift für Psychologie 226, no. 2 (2018): 110–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/2151-2604/a000327.

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Abstract. The development and relation of counterfactual reasoning and false belief understanding were examined in 3- to 7-year-old children (N = 75) and adult controls (N = 14). The key question was whether false belief understanding engages counterfactual reasoning to infer what somebody else falsely believes. Findings revealed a strong correlation between false belief and counterfactual questions even in conditions in which children could commit errors other than the reality bias (rp = .51). The data suggest that mastery of belief attribution and counterfactual reasoning is not limited to o

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39

Thompson, Ted, Brontë Mason, and Iain Montgomery. "Worry and Defensive Pessimism: A Test of Two Intervention Strategies." Behaviour Change 16, no. 4 (1999): 246–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1375/bech.16.4.246.

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AbstractThis study assessed the effectiveness of counterfactual reasoning and relaxation training in reducing worry and defensive pessimism. Thirty-three participants classified as both worriers and defensive pessimists were allocated to either counterfactual reasoning, relaxation training, or control groups. Participants in counterfactual reasoning and relaxation training groups attended four weekly training sessions. Significant reductions in worry between pre- and post-test were evident for scores on the Worry Domains Questionnaire, as well as a reduced tendency to engage in the kind of pro

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40

Tetlock, Philip E., and Richard Ned Lebow. "Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning." American Political Science Review 95, no. 4 (2001): 829–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055400400043.

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We report a series of studies of historical reasoning among professional observers of world politics. The correlational studies demonstrate that experts with strong theoretical commitments to a covering law and cognitive-stylistic preferences for explanatory closure are more likely to reject close-call Counterfactual that imply that “already explained” historical outcomes could easily have taken radically different forms. The experimental studies suggest that counterfactual reasoning is not totally theory-driven: Many experts are capable of surprising themselves when encouraged to imagine the

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41

Byrne, Ruth M. J., and Alessandra Tasso. "Deductive reasoning with factual, possible, and counterfactual conditionals." Memory & Cognition 27, no. 4 (1999): 726–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/bf03211565.

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42

Babic-Antic, Jelena, and Dragana Spasic. "Counterfactual reasoning and conceptual blending in political discourse." Зборник радова Филозофског факултета у Приштини, no. 47-3 (2017): 181–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/zrffp47-14835.

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43

Harris, Paul L., Tim German, and Patrick Mills. "Children's use of counterfactual thinking in causal reasoning." Cognition 61, no. 3 (1996): 233–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0010-0277(96)00715-9.

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44

DEHGHANI, MORTEZA, RUMEN ILIEV, and STEFAN KAUFMANN. "Causal Explanation and Fact Mutability in Counterfactual Reasoning." Mind & Language 27, no. 1 (2012): 55–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0017.2011.01435.x.

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45

Lipe, Marlys G. "Counterfactual reasoning as a framework for attribution theories." Psychological Bulletin 109, no. 3 (1991): 456–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.109.3.456.

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46

Parbhoo, Sonali, Omer Gottesman, Andrew Slavin Ross, et al. "Improving counterfactual reasoning with kernelised dynamic mixing models." PLOS ONE 13, no. 11 (2018): e0205839. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205839.

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47

Van Hoeck, Nicole, Russell Revlin, Kristien Dieussaert, and Walter Schaeken. "The Development of Counterfactual Reasoning in Belief Revision." Psychologica Belgica 52, no. 4 (2012): 407. http://dx.doi.org/10.5334/pb-52-4-407.

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48

McGill, Ann L. "Counterfactual reasoning in causal judgments: Implications for marketing." Psychology and Marketing 17, no. 4 (2000): 323–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1520-6793(200004)17:4<323::aid-mar4>3.0.co;2-x.

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49

Kocurek, Alexander W. "On the Substitution of Identicals in Counterfactual Reasoning*." Noûs 54, no. 3 (2019): 600–631. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nous.12273.

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50

JOHANSSON, MATS, and LINUS BROSTRÖM. "COUNTERFACTUAL REASONING IN SURROGATE DECISION MAKING - ANOTHER LOOK." Bioethics 25, no. 5 (2009): 244–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8519.2009.01768.x.

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