Relevant bibliographies by topics / Counterfactual scenario

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  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers

Academic literature on the topic 'Counterfactual scenario'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 11 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Counterfactual scenario"

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Riddle Harding, Jennifer. "Evaluative stance and counterfactuals in language and literature." Language and Literature: International Journal of Stylistics 16, no. 3 (2007): 263–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0963947007079109.

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This article argues that speakers often express attitudes not only toward events that have happened, but also toward counterfactual events; speakers communicate these attitudes by expressing an evaluative stance toward counterfactual scenarios. By analyzing examples from a variety of discourse situations, from conversation to canonical literature, the author demonstrates that counterfactuals and evaluations function jointly to produce rhetorical effects. The options for expressing evaluative stance are described in detail, as are the four configurations of focal scenario and evaluative stance
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Nestler, Steffen, and Gernot von Collani. "Hindsight Bias and the Activation of Counterfactual Mind-Sets." Experimental Psychology 55, no. 5 (2008): 342–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1618-3169.55.5.342.

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Previous research has shown that conditional counterfactuals are positively related to the magnitude of creeping determinism. Unlike previous experiments which show this increased hindsight bias to occur after exceptional antecedents, we investigated another possible factor, namely a prior activation of a counterfactual mind-set. We investigated our prediction using a hypothetical scenario. Prior to reading the hindsight scenario some participants were asked to solve a scrambled-sentence test including conditional counterfactual sentences. Results of two experiments were consistent with our pr
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Marques, João, Cristina Quelhas, and Csongor Juhos. "Counterfactual thinking: Study of the focus effect of scenarios and blame ascriptions to victim and perpetrator." Análise Psicológica 32, no. 4 (2014): 355–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.14417/ap.952.

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In two different studies we examined the focus effect of a scenario (i.e., the fact that a given character is the protagonist of a story) on two interconnected domains: the generation of counterfactual thoughts and the ascription of blame. It was hypothesised that being the focal agent of a story would not only lead to more counterfactuals centred on him or her, but also to greater ascriptions of blame as it would be easier to imagine how that actor could have behaved differently had he chosen or wanted to, and thus avoided a deleterious outcome. Different negatively-valenced scenarios depicti
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Zhukov, D. S., D. G. Seltser, and N. S. Barabash. "SCENARIOS OF TRANSFORMATION OF REGIONAL ELITES IN THE LATE SOVIET AND POST-SOVIET PERIODS: RESULTS OF SYSTEM-DYNAMIC MODELING." Innovatics and Expert Examination, no. 2(30) (December 3, 2020): 96–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.35264/1996-2274-2020-2-96-107.

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The article presents realistic and alternative (counterfactual) scenarios for the development of regional administrative and political elites in Russia in 1985-2004. The scenarios are built using a system-dynamic model that simulates elite recruitment in the Powersim Studio software environment. The model describes the mechanisms and channels for recruiting managerial personnel, as well as the sociopolitical forces that influenced elite substitution. Experiments with the model allow us to explore different variants of the evolution of elites. The counterfactual scenario proceeds from the hypot
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Keen, Sarah, Hashina Begum, Howard S. Friedman, and Chris D. James. "Scaling up family planning in Sierra Leone: A prospective cost–benefit analysis." Women's Health 13, no. 3 (2017): 43–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1745505717724617.

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Family planning is commonly regarded as a highly cost-effective health intervention with wider social and economic benefits. Yet use of family planning services in Sierra Leone is currently low and 25.0% of married women have an unmet need for contraception. This study aims to estimate the costs and benefits of scaling up family planning in Sierra Leone. Using the OneHealth Tool, two scenarios of scaling up family planning coverage to currently married women in Sierra Leone over 2013–2035 were assessed and compared to a ‘no-change’ counterfactual. Our costing included direct costs of drugs, su
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González-Roldán, Jesús Felipe, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Martin I. Meltzer, et al. "Cost-effectiveness of the national dog rabies prevention and control program in Mexico, 1990–2015." PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15, no. 3 (2021): e0009130. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009130.

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Background Rabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the econom
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Born, Benjamin, Alexander M. Dietrich, and Gernot J. Müller. "The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden." PLOS ONE 16, no. 4 (2021): e0249732. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249732.

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While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3–4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint,
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Bolton, Lisa E. "Stickier Priors: The Effects of Nonanalytic versus Analytic Thinking in New Product Forecasting." Journal of Marketing Research 40, no. 1 (2003): 65–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1509/jmkr.40.1.65.19129.

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The author investigates scenario generation and analogical reasoning as potential sources of bias in new product forecasting. In a series of studies, scenarios and analogies are shown to have persistent effects on judgment, despite subsequent use of corrective analytic techniques (e.g., counterfactual reasoning, counterscenarios, counteranalogies, decomposition, accountability). These findings demonstrate the robustness of nonanalytic processes on judgment and the need to be aware of their seductive effects.
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Chang, Youngho, and Han Phoumin. "Harnessing Wind Energy Potential in ASEAN: Modelling and Policy Implications." Sustainability 13, no. 8 (2021): 4279. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13084279.

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This study examines whether and how harnessing more wind energy can decrease the cost of meeting the demand for electricity and amount of carbon emissions in the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, using the ASEAN integrated electricity trade model. Three scenarios are considered: a counterfactual business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumes no wind energy is used; an actual BAU scenario that uses the wind-generation capacity in 2018; and a REmap scenario, which employs the wind-generation capacity from the Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN. Simulation results suggest t
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Crawford, Beverly. "Germany's Future Political Challenges: Imagine that The New Yorker Profiled the German Chancellor in 2015." German Politics and Society 23, no. 4 (2005): 69–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/gps.2005.230404.

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What follows is a fictitious scenario, a "thought experiment," meant to project a particular future for Germany if certain assumptions hold. Scenarios are hypotheses that rest on a set of assumptions and one or two "wild cards." They can reveal forces of change that might be otherwise hidden, discard those that are not plausible, and describe the future of trends that are relatively certain. Indeed, scenarios create a particular future in the same way that counterfactual methods create a different past. Counterfactual methods predict how events would have unfolded had a few elements of the sto
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Counterfactual scenario"

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Wilkinson, Meredith Ria. "Examining the theory theory versus simulation theory debate via counterfactual scenarios pertaining to mental states." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.662188.

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This thesis examines the theory theory versus simulation theory debate, which concerns how we reason about mental states. Theory theory (e.g ., Carruthers, 1996a) argues that mental state reasoning is achieved using tacit and non-tacit theories. Simulation theory argues that mental state reasoning is achieved either by taking our own beliefs and desires offline, quarantining them and using the beliefs and desires of the person we are reasoning about (e.g., Goldman, 2006), or by imagining how we would respond in a situation and assuming others are sufficiently like us such that they would respo
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Ball, Russell Andrew. "An investigation of biased depictions of normality in counterfactual scenario studies." 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1828/546.

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Counterfactual research and Norrn Theory (Kahneman & Miller, 1986) predict that abnormal antecedents will be more mutable than normal antecedents. Individuals who behaved abnormally prior to accidental or criminal victimization (e.g., choosing a different route home) are usually awarded higher compensation than those victimized in more routine circumstances. Abnormality is said to provoke more available alternatives, and is cited as a positive correlate of affect (the emotional amplification hypothesis). Enhanced affective response is said to be responsible for greater compensation to victims
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Charrua, Vera Veríssimo Agostinho Sabino. "Pensamento contrafactual : ator e leitor em cenários negativos e positivos." Master's thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.12/8098.

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Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada no ISPA – Instituto Universitário de Ciências Psicológicas, Sociais e da Vida, para obtenção do grau de Mestre na especialidade de Psicologia Clínica<br>O Pensamento Contrafactual é um tipo de pensamento espontâneo que nos permite procurar alternativas à nossa realidade, muitas vezes evidenciado através da expressão “e se…”, que ocorre frequentemente no dia-a-dia de qualquer sujeito (Byrne, 2016). Já em muitos estudos foi sugerido o impacto que certas variáveis como a posição do sujeito (ator vs. leitor) (Girotto e. al., 2007; Pighin et. al., 2011), ou o cen
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(9375209), Cristhian Lizarazo Jimenez. "IDENTIFICATION OF FAILURE-CAUSED TRAFFIC CONFLICTS IN TRACKING SYSTEMS: A GENERAL FRAMEWORK." Thesis, 2020.

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<p><a>Proactive evaluation of road safety is one of the most important objectives of transportation engineers. While current practice typically relies on crash-based analysis after the fact to diagnose safety problems and provide corrective countermeasures on roads, surrogate measures of safety are emerging as a complementary evaluation that can allow engineers to proactively respond to safety issues. These surrogate measures attempt to address the primary limitations of crash data, which include underreporting, lack of reliable insight into the events leading to the crash, and long data colle
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Books on the topic "Counterfactual scenario"

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(Editor), James C. Bresnahan, ed. Revisioning the Civil War: Historians on Counterfactual Scenarios. McFarland & Company, 2005.

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Maron, Martine. Is “no net loss of biodiversity” a good idea? Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198808978.003.0022.

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This chapter explores biodiversity offsetting as a tool used to achieve “no net loss” of biodiversity. Unfortunately, no-net-loss offsetting can be—and often is—unintentionally designed in a way that inevitably results in ongoing biodiversity decline. Credit for offset sites is given in proportion to the assumed loss that would happen at those sites if not protected, and this requires clear baselines and good estimates of the risk of loss. This crediting calculation also creates a perverse incentive to overstate—or even genuinely increase—the threat to biodiversity at potential offset sites, i
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Levy, Arnon, and Peter Godfrey-Smith, eds. The Scientific Imagination. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190212308.001.0001.

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Science is both a creative endeavor and a highly regimented one. It involves surprising, sometimes unthinkably novel ideas, along with meticulous exploration and the careful exclusion of alternatives. At the heart of this productive tension stands a human capacity typically called “the imagination”: our ability, indeed our inclination, to think up new ideas, situations, and scenarios and to explore their contents and consequences in the mind’s eye. This volume explores our capacity to imagine and its implications for the philosophy and practice of science. One central aim is to integrate philo
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Volpi, Frédéric. Conclusion. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190642921.003.0007.

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In the four North African countries, the early process of mobilization in protest events illustrated the contingent dynamics of events-generated events. The transformation of localized episodes of unrest into nationwide waves of unrest was not only the product of the strategic and coincidental actions of the protesters but also of the responses of the authoritarian systems in place. The different trajectories of change in the four polities can be used as counterfactuals to map varied scenarios of interactions between multiple players and to draw inferences. They illustrate how the variations i
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Book chapters on the topic "Counterfactual scenario"

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Cento, Veljanovski. "Part III The Legal Framework, 8 Causation and Counterfactuals." In Cartel Damages. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law-ocl/9780198855163.003.0008.

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This chapter looks at the nature and requirements of the legal tests to establish causation in a competition infringement. The claimant must prove on the balance of probabilities that the harm it suffered was a direct result of the alleged violation of the law. More specifically, the claimant must show causation in law—that it was harm of a type prohibited by the law—and causation in fact—that the harm was physically caused by the infringement. Legal causation is used largely to draw the boundaries of the defendant’s liability for damages. Factual causation is a bit more straightforward. The harm must be caused by the impugned conduct in the sense that ‘but for’ that conduct the harm would not have occurred. Increasingly, causation is expressed in terms of a ‘counterfactual scenario’. However, the use of counterfactuals is problematic and has led to confused reasoning in recent English competition damage actions.
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Mark, Brealey, and George Kyla. "16 Damages." In Competition Litigation. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law-ocl/9780199665075.003.0016.

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This chapter examines the processes used to quantify damages in competition cases. It begins with a discussion of compensatory damages and the various ways that they are assessed by the courts. Compensatory damages are designed to restore the claimant to the position the claimant would have been in had the restrictive conduct not occurred. Hence, the assessment necessarily involves a hypothetical scenario known as a counterfactual. Other factors to consider in calculating damages include proof of loss and collateral benefits. The chapter proceeds by analysing the remoteness of damage, focusing on the burden of proving causation, the scope of the defendant’s liability, and contingencies. It also explains how damages may be reduced because of a failure to mitigate or through contributory negligence, before concluding with an overview of the issue of pass-on, the principle of joint and several liability for the damage, and contribution proceedings.
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Malik, Hassan. "Revolutionary Default." In Bankers and Bolsheviks. Princeton University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691170169.003.0005.

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This chapter focuses on the 1918 Bolshevik default—the largest in history—and the continuation of the financial struggle by the Bolsheviks after the October Revolution from the perspective of both bankers and Bolsheviks. In exploring the drivers of the Bolshevik decision to default, the chapter reveals that the decision was rooted partly in Bolshevik ideology but also shaped by practicalities. Considering the very possible counterfactual scenario that the Bolshevik coup in early November 1917 had failed, it is difficult to imagine a situation whereby the Provisional Government or any successor would have been able to avoid at least a fairly significant default. In this sense, investors holding on to Russian debt before, during, and after the Bolshevik Revolution not only failed to account for political factors, but also failed to remain true to the narrow financial analysis that would have dictated caution even in the absence of a Bolshevik takeover. On the Bolshevik side, the decision to default was not just consistent with the Bolsheviks' previously articulated policies, but—from both a political and economic standpoint—rational.
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Murray, Christopher J. L., and S. Andrew Schroeder. "Ethical Dimensions of the Global Burden of Disease." In Measuring the Global Burden of Disease, edited by Nir Eyal, Samia A. Hurst, Christopher J. L. Murray, S. Andrew Schroeder, and Daniel Wikler. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780190082543.003.0003.

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This chapter suggests that descriptive epidemiological studies like the Global Burden of Disease Study can usefully be divided into four tasks: describing individuals’ health states over time, assessing their health states under a range of counterfactual scenarios, summarizing the information collected, and then packaging it for presentation. The authors show that each of these tasks raises important and challenging ethical questions. They comment on some of the philosophical issues involved in measuring health states, attributing causes to health outcomes, choosing the counterfactual against which to assess causes, aggregating and summarizing complex information across multiple domains, discounting, age-weighting, handling fetal deaths, measuring health inequalities, representing uncertainty, and assessing personal responsibility for health outcomes.
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Beckfield, Jason. "Conclusion." In Unequal Europe. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190494254.003.0005.

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This concluding chapter summarizes the book’s main findings, details the limitations of the research, and elaborates the implications of the argument for the social science of stratification, as well as for the political questions of where Europe goes from here. It begins with an analysis of the recent recession through the lens of unequal Europe. It then evaluates three counterfactual scenarios. The first is Global Europe: what if Europe globalized instead of regionalized? The second is Economic Europe: what if Europe integrated economically without integrating politically? The third is Social Europe: what if the technocratic capitalist turn had failed to dominate European-level policy and jurisprudence in the 1980s?
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Collings, David. "The Gothic as a Theory of Symbolic Exchange." In The Gothic and Theory. Edinburgh University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/edinburgh/9781474427777.003.0011.

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Inheriting longstanding norms that require reciprocation between the living and the dead, the Gothic interprets the cultural shifts of the late eighteenth century as a breach in such reciprocation, a breach that it hopes to address through its own account of symbolic exchange. In a wide range of scenarios - ghost tales, stories of sexual transgression, accounts of unborn and undead figures - it proposes that a body, a corpse, or a sexually active individual is inexplicable, out of place, haunting, until it receives the status of human being through a symbolic act. In some tales, it even provides counterfactual narratives of interchanges with supernatural figures - Satan, Dracula - to conceive of how symbolic exchange with the inhuman might cut across, replicate, or disturb human reciprocation. The Gothic thus attempts to redress the conditions of a certain modernity by calling upon -- and theorizing -- the fundamental imperatives of symbolic exchange.
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Rostagno, Massimo, Carlo Altavilla, Giacomo Carboni, et al. "A Combined Arms Strategy." In Monetary Policy in Times of Crisis. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192895912.003.0007.

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The culmination of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy evolution was the ‘combined arms strategy’ that started taking shape in 2014–2015. In this chapter, we review how four unconventional measures—negative interest rates, asset purchases, targeted lending operations, and forward guidance—were progressively combined into a unified policy package. We recount the sequence of ‘recalibrations’ of these tools that took place between December 2015 and June 2018 and the internal debates that informed them. We then conduct an impact analysis where we seek to isolate and examine the contribution of the policy package to financial conditions and macroeconomic outcomes. The novelty of our analysis lies both in its methodological approach and in its diagnostics, which allows us to disentangle the respective contribution of each instrument and assess counterfactual scenarios in which they were not combined. We end by considering some of the side effects of our unconventional policies with a focus on the banking sector.
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Oude Elferink, Alex. "What If the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea had Entered into Force Unamended." In Contingency in International Law. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192898036.003.0013.

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The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Convention) was adopted in 1982 and entered into force in 1994 and is generally considered to be a success story. That success in part it attributed to the adaptation of the mining regime for the deep seabed contained in Part XI of the Convention prior to its entry into force. The chapter considers whether the law of the sea might have development differently in the absence of such adaptation, looking at two scenarios: ‘business as usual’ and ‘dystopia’. After sketching these scenarios, the chapter further assesses the likelihood of a number of the elements they have in common. In concluding, it is observed that the law of the sea might have developed differently had states failed to reach an agreement on the adjustment of Part XI of the Convention prior to its entry into force. The conclusion also consider the question whether the Convention, which was adopted after more than ten years of complex negotiations, actually was ‘too big to fail’. It is submitted that the Convention would not have failed by design. However, the analysis of the counterfactuals suggests that the consultations on Part XI might have been stalled, and developments might have slowly eroded the basis for a compromise. Still, it is unlikely that this would have resulted in a radically different law of the sea regime, but there likely would have been more conflicting claims, leading to less effective cooperation and higher transaction costs.
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Carpenter, Ele. "Shifting the Nuclear Imaginary: Art and the Flight from Nuclear Modernity." In Cold War Legacies. Edinburgh University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/edinburgh/9781474409483.003.0007.

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Drawing on Mackenzie &amp; Spinardi’s research into the potential un-invention of nuclear weapons through the loss of tacit knowledge, this chapter explores a range of artistic responses to the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster. Mackenzie &amp; Spinardi’s work on nuclear weapons design, testing and computing, allows us to think about a new mode of nuclear aesthetics, providing conceptual frameworks relevant to contemporary art practice and discourse such as: the contested nature of sameness in the repetition of objects; the importance of the slowness of tacit knowledge; of the human eye, making and learning with others; the limits of code; and the erosion of nuclear belief systems. Recent artistic practices in Japan and internationally, explore counterfactual possibilities across time; where aspects of nuclear culture are made visible or possible in a world where apocalyptic scenarios are streamed live. The responsibility for nuclear materials is shifting from state weapons production to the privatized nuclear energy industry, and into the public realm of nuclear accidents and public consultation on long-term waste disposal. Artists are concerned with how the networks are interrupted, looped, mapped, slowed down for reflection on how things are made, how stories are told, and how knowledge is consolidated.
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Conference papers on the topic "Counterfactual scenario"

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Sokol, Kacper, and Peter Flach. "Glass-Box: Explaining AI Decisions With Counterfactual Statements Through Conversation With a Voice-enabled Virtual Assistant." In Twenty-Seventh International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-18}. International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2018/865.

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The prevalence of automated decision making, influencing important aspects of our lives -- e.g., school admission, job market, insurance and banking -- has resulted in increasing pressure from society and regulators to make this process more transparent and ensure its explainability, accountability and fairness. We demonstrate a prototype voice-enabled device, called Glass-Box, which users can question to understand automated decisions and identify the underlying model's biases and errors. Our system explains algorithmic predictions with class-contrastive counterfactual statements (e.g., ``Had
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Oosterhuis, Harrie, and Maarten de Rijke. "Unifying Online and Counterfactual Learning to Rank: A Novel Counterfactual Estimator that Effectively Utilizes Online Interventions (Extended Abstract)." In Thirtieth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-21}. International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2021/656.

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State-of-the-art Learning to Rank (LTR) methods for optimizing ranking systems based on user interactions are divided into online approaches – that learn by direct interaction – and counterfactual approaches – that learn from historical interactions. We propose a novel intervention-aware estimator to bridge this online/counterfactual division. The estimator corrects for the effect of position bias, trust bias, and item-selection bias by using corrections based on the behavior of the logging policy and on online interventions: changes to the logging policy made during the gathering of click dat
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Li, Shuxin, Youzhi Zhang, Xinrun Wang, Wanqi Xue, and Bo An. "CFR-MIX: Solving Imperfect Information Extensive-Form Games with Combinatorial Action Space." In Thirtieth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-21}. International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2021/504.

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In many real-world scenarios, a team of agents must coordinate with each other to compete against an opponent. The challenge of solving this type of game is that the team's joint action space grows exponentially with the number of agents, which results in the inefficiency of the existing algorithms, e.g., Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR). To address this problem, we propose a new framework of CFR: CFR-MIX. Firstly, we propose a new strategy representation that represents a joint action strategy using individual strategies of all agents and a consistency relationship to maintain the coo
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