Academic literature on the topic 'Credit risk assessment – Nigeria'

There has been a huge and deluge of risk threatening industries at an unequalled magnitude in recent times. As such, the board of directors and senior executives are increasingly expected to manage their various organizations' risk portfolios, affecting their financial performance. This has led to the assigning of the risk assessment role to the audit committee. The board of directors and its audit committee play an essential function in Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) by building up the right condition or tone-at-the-top. Given the board's responsibilities for representing the interests of shareholders, it plays a vital role in overseeing management's approach to ERM. This study examined the relationship between audit committee characteristics and risk management of some selected listed firms in a developing country like Nigeria. The study used secondary data to describe the dependent variable (financial risk decomposed into credit risk and liquidity risk) and the explanatory variables (decomposed into audit committee accounting expertise, audit committee meetings, audit committee independence and audit committee gender). The study used pair sample t-test, student t-test, Pearson Moment Correlation and random panel data estimator for twenty (20) selected listed firms for 2012-2016. Findings indicate that there is a negative between audit committee accounting expertise and financial risk. This revealed that Accounting Expertise in Audit Committees are likely to involve in activities and practices to curb financial risk. In addition, the Audit committee meeting indicates a negative relationship with credit risk. Audit committee gender and audit committee independence have a negative effect on liquidity risk. Therefore, this study recommends that Audit committees embrace Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) to manage risks effectively across the organization. Risk management processes should be one of the major points of discussion during audit committee meetings.

With the diversified developments of the financial market, commercial banks are confronted with various risks, among which the credit risk is the core, and thus the assessment of enterprises’ credit risks is especially important in the credit process of the commercial banks. Based on the relevant researches about commercial banks’ credit risk management, the paper carries out a deep analysis on the factors that may affect the credit risk assessment and then establishes a relatively comprehensive credit risk assessment system. In this paper, we apply our risk assessment model, which is established on the basis of GRNN neural network model, to make an empirical analysis with the selected sample data. And the results suggest that the hit rates of identifying high quality enterprises and low quality enterprises are 92.16 percent and 93.75 percent, respectively, indicating that the model has realized a good prediction.

This study examines the impact credit risk management has on the profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria. The main objective of this material is to show how credit risk parameters are related to the expected performance of commercial banks in Nigeria. Using the regression analysis, relationship was drawn between credit risk parameters (which include capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loan ratio) and the profitability ratio (return on average asset, in particular) of five big Nigerian banks. Mixed research methodology was adopted in that primary data were sourced via questionnaires and secondary data were used via annual report of selected banks. Regression analysis was used to analyse the data. The conclusion drawn from the data analysis shows that there is a strong relationship between credit risk parameters and returns of the bank implying that credit risk management has a strong impact on the profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria. The study recommends that banks’ capital should be matched with their total risk exposure and if there is an imbalance, new capital requirements are necessary. Insider-related interests in loan applications should be closely monitored by the regulators to ensure continuous performance of the loan facility. Also, there should be an extant profiling of loan defaulters whether individuals or corporate entities.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2011.
The research report provides a credit risk assessment and evaluation of Accion Microfinance Bank Limited (AMFB) for the period 2006 to 2010, using Morgan Stanley’s methodology for analysing the credits and performance ratings of microfinance institutions (MFIs). Since MFIs are set up to provide credit and other financial services to the poor, financially underserviced segment of the society, and since the credit support granted to such micro businesses usually lacks collateral, it is imperative that the management of such credit services be sound in order to mitigate the high risks involved. Thus, credit risk management determines the success and survival of microfinance banks (MFBs): weak credit management leads to capital erosion and eventual failure, whereas sound credit risk management guarantees profitability and sustainability and, hence, the realisation of the objectives of their setup – enhancing the welfare of micro-entrepreneurs. The data for the research report were sourced from AMFB’s financial statements for the years 2006 to 2010 and from interviews that were conducted with principal officials of this MFB. The research found that good regulatory corporate governance and management practices, sound quantitative credit risk assessment and management, and quality and maturity of management lead to low credit risk accompanied by high profitability and sustainability for MFBs. As AMFB matured, the quality of portfolio, profitability, sustainability and operating efficiency were seen to increase. The quality of shareholders, board and management was found to be crucial for the sound management of the MFB. The research report, therefore, recommends regular and continuous credit risk identification, assessment and management, as well as sound corporate governance, if MFBs are to survive and grow and achieve their developmental objectives.

This thesis studies the Chinese banks’ credit risk assessment using the Post Keynesian approach. We argue that bank loans are the major financial sources in emerging economies and it is uncertainty, an unquantifiable risk, rather than asymmetric information about quantifiable risk, as held by the mainstream approach, which is most important for the risk attached to credit loans, and this uncertainty is particularly important in China. With the universal existence of uncertainty, borrowers and lenders have to make decisions based on convention and experience. With regard to the nature of decision-making, this implies the importance of qualitative methods rather than quantitative methods. The current striking problem in Chinese banking is the large amount of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and this research aims to address the NPLs through improving credit risk management. Rather than the previous literature where Western models are introduced into China directly or with minor modification, this work advocates building on China’s conventional domestic methods to deal with uncertainty. We briefly review the background of the Chinese banking history with an evolutionary view and examine Chinese conventions in the development of the credit market. Based on an overview of this history, it is argued that Soft Budget Constraints (SBC) and the underdeveloped risk-assessing mechanism contributed to the accumulation of NPLs. Informed by Western models and experience, we have made several suggestions about rebuilding the Chinese convention of credit risk assessment, based on an analysis of publications and interviews with Chinese bankers. We also suggest some further development of the Asset Management Companies (AMCs) which are used to dispose of the NPLs.

The study offers an insight into the dynamics of the relationship between political risk and multinational firms in the context of emerging markets. Political Risk Assessment (PRA) importance for multinational firms investing in emerging markets has increased significantly with the growing rate of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) globally. It is used for managing political risk, and decision-making processes during firms’ internationalisation, and has been identified as one of the key determinants of FDI into developing countries. However, only a few empirical studies on PRA have been undertaken in emerging markets. Previous studies have shown that political risk has been evolving and has resulted in a range of consequences that have influenced the type of strategies which firms adopt. It is in recognition of this that the need to identify a country’s specific political risk factors and their consequences for multinational firms that this study is undertaken in Nigeria. Despite the flux in the political environment of the country with its population divided along cultural, ethnic, language and religious lines within its different geographical regions, Nigeria has witnessed a continuous inflow of FDI. This research contributes to the assessment of political risk by critically analysing the determinants and indicators to examine how the consequences of political risk impact upon multinational firms, with a view to understanding the managerial practices associated with managing political risk in Nigeria. Six objectives were identified as follows: to investigate the determinants of political risk; to examine their impacts; to investigate the variables and indicators used to forecast political risk; to investigate the consequences of political risk; to explore practices of PRA in multinational firms and to identify strategies used to manage and mitigate political risk in Nigeria. Likewise, four hypotheses underpinning these objectives were formulated to understand the dynamics of the relationship between political risk and multinational firms. This study empirically used a sequential mixed method strategy to analyse statistically as well as using thematic and content analysis data collected through a multi-method approach from 74 multinational firms in Nigeria. The dataset of the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) PRA annual rating for Nigeria within the period 2011 to 2015 was also analysed. The study identifies eight determinants that contribute to the emergence of political risk. It highlighted factors that influence the consequences of political risk on multinational firms which supports the conceptual premise for identifying reasons why firms manage and mitigate political risk in countries, and why some internationalise into specific countries. Empirically, it showed that the impact of political risk varies from one part of a country to another, as do the consequences of their impacts which inform why multinational firms are located more in some parts of the country, and how the consequences of political risk will differ between firms, depending on their location in a country. These findings have implications for practice and showed that firms could improve their conduct of PRA, influence the type of strategies they adopt and how to explore quantitative PRA methodologies when operating in similar emerging markets. This study also showed that some risk indicators used for forecasting political risk appeared major and did not retain the same value within the country. The case of Nigeria showed that the presence of high political risk does not deter firms if the financial and economic risk is low. It reveals also that the practice of PRA differs within firms and that the strategies used to mitigate political risk mostly involve the conduct of PRA and engagement in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR).

The question of whether ratings agencies convey new information to financial markets when they assign new ratings or change previous ratings has been debated for at least 40 years. In this study I first examine equity market, bond market and CDS market reactions to long and short term rating changes from S&P, Fitch and Moody's. I find that not all the credit rating changes affect the market but only those classified as unanticipated. Subsequently, I study whether the regulatory setting, in which the Credit Ratings Agencies work, can possibly affect the financial markets reactions. Lastly I show that the probability of a future rating change is severely affected by different factors proportional hazard rate models.

The vast majority of the Swedish real estate companies are to some extent financed by debt and are dependent on external capital when expanding their business. Swedish real estate companies have traditionally financed their business through bank loans, but as a result of – among other things – stricter regulations, an increasing share of the Swedish real estate companies seek funding in the capital market, and corporate bonds in particular have emerged as an alternative to bank loans. In all types of lending, whether it is a bank loan or an investor who buys a bond, the lender must assess the credit risk of the company and / or the bond. This is to ensure the company's repayment ability and that the borrower gets sufficient compensation for the risk undertaken. In this thesis, the credit risk assessment process has been evaluated from two different perspectives to explore if there are any differences in the assessment conducted by banks and bond investors. In this thesis, it appears that the differences between the different parties' assessment are relatively small and that both parties evaluate approximately the same parameters and key performance indicators.
De allra flesta fastighetsbolag i Sverige finansierar sig delvis genom externt kapital och är beroende av nya krediter när de vill utöka sin verksamhet. Svenska fastighetsbolag har traditionellt sett finansierat sig via banklån men på grund av bland annat striktare regleringar väljer alltfler fastighetsbolag att söka finansiering på kapitalmarknaden, där framförallt företagsobligationer har växt fram som ett alternativ till bankfinansiering.  I alla typer av kreditgivning, oavsett om det handlar om banklån eller en investerare som köper en obligation, måste kreditgivaren göra en kreditriskbedömning av bolaget och/eller obligationen. Detta för att säkerställa bolagets återbetalningsförmåga och att långivaren får tillräcklig kompensation för den risk denne tar. I det här examensarbetet har kreditriskbedömningsprocessen utvärderats från två olika perspektiv för att se om det går att hitta några skillnader i bedömningen utförd av banker respektive obligationsinvesterare. Resultatet tyder på att skillnaderna mellan de olika parternas bedömning inte är särskilt stora utan båda parter utvärderar ungefär samma parametrar och nyckeltal.

This thesis is concerned with statistical aspects of credit scoring, the process of determining how likely an applicant for credit is to default with repayments. In Chapters 1-4 a detailed introduction to credit scoring methodology is presented, including evaluation of previous published work on credit scoring and a review of discrimination and classification techniques. In Chapter 5 we describe different approaches to measuring the absolute and relative performance of credit scoring models. Two significance tests are proposed for comparing the bad rate amongst the accepts (or the error rate) from two classifiers. In Chapter 6 we consider different approaches to reject inference, the procedure of allocating class membership probabilities to the rejects. One reason for needing reject inference is to reduce the sample selection bias that results from using a sample consisting only of accepted applicants to build new scorecards. We show that the characteristic vectors for the rejects do not contain information about the parameters of the observed data likelihood, unless extra information or assumptions are included. Methods of reject inference which incorporate additional information are proposed. In Chapter 7 we make comparisons of a range of different parametric and nonparametric classification techniques for credit scoring: linear regression, logistic regression, projection pursuit regression, Poisson regression, decision trees and decision graphs. We conclude that classifier performance is fairly insensitive to the particular technique adopted. In Chapter 8 we describe the application of the k-NN method to credit scoring. We propose using an adjusted version of the Eucidean distance metric, which is designed to incorporate knowledge of class separation contained in the data. We evaluate properties of the k-NN classifier through empirical studies and make comparisons with existing techniques.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
The study was carried out to find out the effect of credit risk and portfolio loan management on profitability of microfinance Banks (MFBs) in Lagos, Nigeria. To achieve the objective of the study, an econometric model was developed. A sample size of 14 microfinance banks was randomly selected, comprising four national, five state and five unit microfinance banks respectively. Five year annual financial statements of these 14 selected microfinance banks were obtained for this analysis using panel data that produce 70 observations for the period 2006 to 2010 The result reveals that the current value of all independent variables follow an expected relationship with the profitability of microfinance banks. That is, the net interest margin, asset mix proxied by ratio of loan to total asset, and ratio of equity to total assets have a positive relationship with the profitability of microfinance banks (MFBs) in Lagos state, Nigeria. Asset quality (ratio of non-performing loan to total loan) and the interest earnings to total assets ratio have a negative relationship with profitability of microfinance banks. However, the result reveals that of the five immediate past value of these independent variables, only net interest margin and interest earnings to total assets ratio maintained expected relationship with the performance (profitability) of microfinance banks. From the hypothesis test, it was found that credit risk management has a significant effect on the profitability of microfinance banks in Lagos state, Nigeria The study is set against the background and realisation that many MFBs in Lagos seem to continue to seek growth and profit without much attention to addressing credit risk issues – a necessity for their survival on a sustainable basis. The results indicated that the credit evaluation process was positively and significantly related to the quality of the loan portfolio in MFBs. The study also found out that internal rather than external to the MFB’s are more likely to provide the main explanation for MFBs’ profitability. To enhance their profitability, loan products which seem to have various defects which make loans even more risky need to be reviewed. The defects include: long loan processing procedures, absence of training to clients on proper utilisation of loans, lack of mechanisms to assess the suitability and viability of the business proposal for which loans were applied, inappropriate mechanism for assessing character for loan applicants, absence of moratorium periods between taking of a loan and repayment of a first instalment as clients were requested to repay their first instalment within the first month. The study recommended that MFBs should have a broad outlook in its credit risk and portfolio management strategy and this calls for radical reforms within the MFB’s operations and policies as well as more aggressive approaches most especially before availing credit and in its loan recovery as it had a direct impact on profitability.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.