Academic literature on the topic 'Credit Risk, Steel Industry'

Learning outcomes The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how a well-performing company can turn into a loss-making company on account of adverse industry cycle and poor management of risks in the business. The importance of factors like optimal level of leveraging, the ability of the management to deal with external and internal risks, and importance of corporate governance in the process of credit appraisal is understood from this case. Case overview/synopsis The case relates to the credit appraisal by the banks of a prominent steel company in India. The company, Bhushan Steel Limited, was doing very well. The banks lent aggressively to the company, based on their credit appraisal. However, the company soon turned insolvent on account of poor assessment of risks and deteriorating external factors. While this case may be analysed and studied through the eyes of both the Management and the lenders, the focus is currently on the latter. In a real-world scenario, the challenge for the lender is to sieve through the financial as well as non-financial data and make a valid conclusion on the level of credit worthiness of the borrowing company. This includes the topics of operational efficiency and synergies, commodity price cycles, external credit ratings, operating and financial leverage, regulatory risks and corporate governance. Complexity academic level Post graduate business management programmes – Finance specialisation. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes. Subject code CSS 1: Accounting and Finance

Given the fact that a swift rehabilitation procedure is very critical due to the risk of the collapse of business foundation (e.g. falling asset value), this paper analyzes the effect of the Fast-track program, introduced to address insolvent companies swiftly. A Differences-in-Differences model is used to analyze and compare the prior-and-post effects of the program. The analysis result shows that the effect of this program on ICR (interest coverage ratio), representing the degree of rehabilitation, is positive; but its statistical significance is low. This is because the business foundation has been undermined around the time of receivership; and even after the termination of the receivership, the program effect is limited due to the bankruptcy stigma. The same result is observed in estimations by company size and by industry. This result has following implications. First, to improve the effect of Fast-track, institutional efforts are required to reduce disadvantages induced by the bankruptcy stigma (e.g. a fall in credit rating and high-risk premiums). Next, as observed in the empirical analysis of steel and shipbuilding, the effect of the Fast-track may not be exercised to the full with weakened industrial competitiveness. Therefore, restructuring efforts such as business reshuffle are necessary.

In January 2014, the CEO of the renowned U.S. discount retailer Target wrote an open letter to its customers apologizing for the massive data breach the company experienced during the 2013 holiday season. Attackers were able to steal credit card data of 40 million customers and more were probably at risk. Share prices, profits, but above all reputation were all now at stake. How did it happen? What was really stolen? What happened to the data? How could Target win consumer confidence back? While the company managed the consequences of the attack, and operations were slowly back to normal, in the aftermath the data breach costs hundreds of million dollars. Customers, banks, and all the major payment card companies took legal action against Target. Some of these litigations remained unsettled 3 years later. The importance of the breach lays in its far broader consequences, rippling through the U.S. Congress, and raising consumer and industry awareness on cyber security. The case provides substantial data and information, allowing students to step into the shoes of Target executives as they seek answers to the above questions.

PurposeThis study aims to examine and compare the credit risk management (CRM) scenario of Islamic banks (IBs) and conventional banks (CBs) in Pakistan, keeping in view the phenomenal growth of Islamic banking and its future implications.Design/methodology/approachA sample of five CBs and four IBs was chosen out of the whole banking industry for the study. Secondary data obtained from the banks’ annual financial reports for 13 years, starting from 2004 to 2016, were analyzed. Multiple regression, correlation and descriptive analysis were used in the examination of the data.FindingsThe results show that loan quality (LQ) has a positive and significant impact on CRM for both IBs and CBs. Asset quality (AQ), on the other hand, has a negative impact on CRM in the case of IBs, but has a significantly positive relation with CRM in the case of CBs. The impact of 16 ratios measuring LQ and AQ have also been individually checked on CRM, by making use of a regression model using a dummy variable of financial crises for robust comparison among CBs and IBs. The model proved significant, and CRM performance of IBs was observed to be better than that of CBs. Moreover, the mean average value of financial ratios used as a measuring tool for these variables shows that the CRM performance of IBs operating in Pakistan was better than that of CBs over the period of the study.Practical implicationsThe research findings are expected to facilitate bankers, investors, academics and policy makers to build a better understanding of CRM practices as adopted by CBs and IBs. The findings would be useful in formulating policy measures for the progress of the banking industry in Pakistan.Originality/valueThis research is unique in terms of its approach toward analyzing and comparing CRM performance of CBs and IBs. Such work has not been carried out before in the Pakistani banking industry.

A lack of reliable credit risk measurements and poor control of credit risks has caused massive financial losses across a wide spectrum of business. Financial institutions like banks have not been able to control and contain the rapid increases of the credit defaulting. In this paper, we address the credit lending challenges by eliminating credit defaulting faced by the banking industry. Data from bank of previously accepted and rejected loan applicants was used to construct a credit risk evaluation network. The artificial neural network technique with back-propagation algorithm was applied to develop a model that supports the banks in the credit granting decision-making. The model was trained to categorize applicants as either good (credit granted) or bad (credit denied) based on the credit record. The model was able to predict whether a particular applicant is likely or unlikely to repay the credit. The training of neural network model and validation testing was done using data obtained from the bank. The results show a greater performance, classification and prediction accuracy.

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Credit risk management has assumed increasing importance for the managers and directors of enterprises. Thus, different approaches aimed to measure the probability of default are under discussion nowadays. This paper evaluates models that have become more popular over the last 30 years in order forecast defaults or to provide information regarding to financial difficulties of enterprises. This paper will focus on the KMV model in order to estimate the probability of default, its methodology based on market value of the asset and its volatility and finally estimate the probability of default. Finally, to test the KMV model will be used a sample of global steel companies that have credit in Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), which will allow us to make comparisons with the models presented in this work.

This paper looks at whether firms’ credit ratings are negatively affected by litigation risk after controlling for known factors that affect credit ratings. The conventional wisdom is that litigation risk and credit ratings have an inverse relationship. However, my hypothesis is that the inverse relationship will not be stable if the model of credit ratings has taken other factors into account. The methodology first constructs a model of litigation risk, and then regress the credit ratings on the measurement of litigation risk. Previous empirical research on litigation risk measurement uses industry proxies as indicators for litigation risk. In this paper, I include firm characteristics and the Beneish M-score (a determinant for earnings manipulation) in addition to the industry proxy to construct an alternative model measuring litigation risk. I find that supplementing the Francis, Philbrick and Schipper (1994a, b; hereafter FPS) industry proxy with measures of firm characteristics improves predictive ability. In the model of credit ratings, I find that the change of litigation risk has a negative correlation with the credit ratings. However, the negative coefficient on the change of litigation risk changes to a positive one after controlling for other variables such as firm size, return on asset, and interest coverage ratio. This finding provides support for the hypothesis that the negative correlation between the credit ratings and litigation risk is not stable. This suggests that credit ratings may not incorporate litigation risk specifically although litigation can lead to firms’ financial damage and reputation crisis. However, the negative coefficient on the change of litigation risk remains unchanged when I control for the year fixed effects. I also find a negative correlation between the year 2007 and credit ratings due to financial crisis. The results are not conclusive given the likely simultaneous determination of litigation risk and credit ratings.

In recent years, it has been witnessed that a number of countries are trying to recover from a deep recession which spread widely around the world. Researchers have pointed out that the laxity of credit risk management is one of the causes of the growth in the number of non-performing loans. It is necessary, therefore, to work out a method to improve the efficiency of credit risk management. This thesis examined five large commercial banks in China and studied their credit risk management processes. This study intends to develop an up-to-date understanding of Chinese banking industry, covering some aspects of credit risk management, banking profitability and competition level using Panzar and Rosse model. The results have shown that the current competition level in Chinese banking industry is monopolistic competition. Regarding credit risk management, a set of face to face questionnaires aimed at the senior credit risk managers helped the author to analyse some existing management process in some aspect of loan decision making. Results indicated that the larger the size of the branch, the higher rate of return it generates on their investments. The rate of return is considered as an indicating factor to examine the profitability of banks. Furthermore, a discussion on banking profitability has been carried out using Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Johansen’s co-integration test and Granger causality test. The results have shown that there is no short term relationship between capital ratio and profitability. According to trade-off theory and pecking order theory, it 6 can be understood that the capital ratio of Chinese banks, during the examined period of time, was close to the optimum capital ratio. The author hopes that the findings of empirical analysis in this work could play some part during the process of bank lending and borrowing activities and therefore reduce non-performing loans and increase the profitability.

Business Administration/Risk Management and Insurance
Ph.D.
This dissertation consists of two topics. Chapter 1 explores the relationship between U.S. Property-Casualty (P/C) insurers’ underwriting risk, investment risk, and leverage risk, using data from 1998 to 2013. I test the trade-off hypothesis using a simultaneous equation model framework with partial adjustment effects. The three equations model intend to examine the interrelations between insurers’ leverage and two measures of firm risks: underwriting risk and investment risk. The empirical evidence, various to different sample periods and model specifications, suggests there is no significant relationship existing between insurers’ underwriting risk and investment risk. But these two types of risks are both significantly and negatively related to the leverage ratio. The overall results imply that insurers tend to tradeoff leverage risk and underwriting risk/investment risk, but it appears that they have not taken an integrated approach between the total level of underwriting risk and investment risk yet. The second part of this dissertation empirically investigates the impact of credit risk on insurers’ reinsurance demand, using data on the U.S. P/C insurance industry from 2000 to 2014. I mainly explore how insurers’ credit rating status and downgrade risk affects their reinsurance demand. Using a two-stage least square (2SLS) regression model, I find that low-rated insurers are associated with a higher utilization of reinsurance. In addition, insurers that are downgraded in the previous year tend to have a higher reinsurance demand than the others. Results also show that downgraded group-affiliated insurers tend to significantly increase their internal reinsurance demand from the group-affiliated members while decreasing the purchase of external reinsurance significantly. In general, I find that insurers’ reinsurance demand is affected by their credit rating and downgrade risk.
Temple University--Theses

Thesis (MTech (Cost and Management Accounting))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2019
The risk that borrowers may not fulfil borrowing obligation presents credit owners (lenders) with a default risk management opportunity to maximize risk-adjusted rate of return and maintain minimum exposure to default associated cost. This study investigated respondents' perception of the cost of credit default and examines requirements for default risk management (ORM) in the vehicle finance industry in South Africa. It is noted that with increased level of consumer indebtedness, an unstable economy, and high unemployment, vehicle financing faces a higher probability of default from borrowers. This descriptive investigation utilised both the quantitative and qualitative approaches using the survey method to collect data from 381 purposive, randomly selected respondents who are vehicle finance customers in South Africa; Cape Town specifically. Data collection took place in the Western Cape over a nine months period, utilising personal interview, and emails to administer open-ended questionnaires for credit managers and close-ended questionnaires, for the vehicle finances' customers, as data collection instrument. Responses received were codified and quantitative data was analysed using the Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS version 25) while qualitative data was analysed using the content analysis of percentage of word similarities. The study found mixed and variable respondents' perception of the cost of credit default. In conclusion, it is perceived that in South Africa the cost of credit would become more costly with credit default. It can be recommended that a default risk management intervention could be applied to mitigate the risk of credit default within the context of unified credit assessment policy of South Africa.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2011.
The research report provides a credit risk assessment and evaluation of Accion Microfinance Bank Limited (AMFB) for the period 2006 to 2010, using Morgan Stanley’s methodology for analysing the credits and performance ratings of microfinance institutions (MFIs). Since MFIs are set up to provide credit and other financial services to the poor, financially underserviced segment of the society, and since the credit support granted to such micro businesses usually lacks collateral, it is imperative that the management of such credit services be sound in order to mitigate the high risks involved. Thus, credit risk management determines the success and survival of microfinance banks (MFBs): weak credit management leads to capital erosion and eventual failure, whereas sound credit risk management guarantees profitability and sustainability and, hence, the realisation of the objectives of their setup – enhancing the welfare of micro-entrepreneurs. The data for the research report were sourced from AMFB’s financial statements for the years 2006 to 2010 and from interviews that were conducted with principal officials of this MFB. The research found that good regulatory corporate governance and management practices, sound quantitative credit risk assessment and management, and quality and maturity of management lead to low credit risk accompanied by high profitability and sustainability for MFBs. As AMFB matured, the quality of portfolio, profitability, sustainability and operating efficiency were seen to increase. The quality of shareholders, board and management was found to be crucial for the sound management of the MFB. The research report, therefore, recommends regular and continuous credit risk identification, assessment and management, as well as sound corporate governance, if MFBs are to survive and grow and achieve their developmental objectives.

Stålindustrin förser såväl människor som samhället med många nödvändiga byggstenar. I Sverige finns tolv ståltillverkande anläggningar och hela 80 % av stålet exporteras. Som alla andra tillverkande industrier har den flera miljöaspekter att ta hänsyn till, men stålets nytta väger tungt och därför är det av stor vikt att genom forskningsprojektet Stålkretsloppet nå hållbar utveckling. Miljöskyddslagen, miljöbalken och ett ökande miljöengagemang har lett till arbete med miljöfrågor. Syftet med den här studien var att undersöka hur allmänhetens riskperception, attityd och oro gentemot stålindustrin ser ut. Skiljer sig kunskapen och intresset beroende på olika bakgrundsvariabler så som ålder, kön, sysselsättning, om kommunen har stålindustri eller inte, etc. Enkäten skickades till 1000 personer fördelade över fyra kommuner; två med stålverk, Luleå och Smedjebacken kommun, och två utan, Kalmar och Tingsryds kommun. Enkätundersökningens svarsfrekvens hamnade slutligen på omkring 43 %. Resultaten visade att de största skillnader finns mellan kommunerna. Respondenter med fram för allt arbetsrelaterad koppling till stålindustri är de som instämmer mest i de olika påståendena. Giftiga ämnen är det som oroar mest. Slutsatser som drogs var att skillnader mellan kommunerna med stålverk och kommunerna utan stålverk är tydligast. Kunskapen om stålindustrin är tämligen liten och allmänheten önskar mer information, inte minst om miljöarbetet.
The steel industry and its production are fundamental to our society and the modern way of life. There are twelve steel manufacturing facilities in Sweden, exporting as much as 80 % of the produced steel. Like all other manufacturing industries it is giving rise to environmental aspects, but steel’s advantage weighs heavily and it is therefore of great importance through the research programme the Steel Eco-Cycle (Stålkretsloppet) to achieve sustainable development. The purpose of this study was to examine what the general public’s risk perception, attitude and worry towards steel industry looks like. Are there any variations in knowledge and interest based on different background variables such as age, gender, employment, if the municipality has manufacturing or not, etc. The survey was sent to 1000 people spread in four municipalities, two having steel industry and two not having. The answering rate of the survey finally ended at 43 %. The results showed that the biggest differences are to find between the different municipalities. Respondents with a work related connection to the steel industry seems to agree more on the different allegations. The respondents are mainly worried about toxic substances. The most striking conclusion was that the biggest differences lay between the municipalities with steel industry and the ones without it. The knowledge about the industry is however relatively small and the respondents are therefore asking for more information, not least about the work with environmental aspects.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

With its annual Payment Systems Report, Banco de la República offers a complete overview of the infrastructure of Colombia’s financial market. Each edition of the report has four objectives: 1) to publicize a consolidated account of how the figures for payment infrastructures have evolved with respect to both financial assets and goods and services; 2) to summarize the issues that are being debated internationally and are of interest to the industry that provides payment clearing and settlement services; 3) to offer the public an explanation of the ideas and concepts behind retail-value payment processes and the trends in retail payments within the circuit of individuals and companies; and 4) to familiarize the public, the industry, and all other financial authorities with the methodological progress that has been achieved through applied research to analyze the stability of payment systems. This edition introduces changes that have been made in the structure of the report, which are intended to make it easier and more enjoyable to read. The initial sections in this edition, which is the eleventh, contain an analysis of the statistics on the evolution and performance of financial market infrastructures. These are understood as multilateral systems wherein the participating entities clear, settle and register payments, securities, derivatives and other financial assets. The large-value payment system (CUD) saw less momentum in 2019 than it did the year before, mainly because of a decline in the amount of secondary market operations for government bonds, both in cash and sell/buy-backs, which was offset by an increase in operations with collective investment funds (CIFs) and Banco de la República’s operations to increase the money supply (repos). Consequently, the Central Securities Depository (DCV) registered less activity, due to fewer negotiations on the secondary market for public debt. This trend was also observed in the private debt market, as evidenced by the decline in the average amounts cleared and settled through the Central Securities Depository of Colombia (Deceval) and in the value of operations with financial derivatives cleared and settled through the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC). Section three offers a comprehensive look at the market for retail-value payments; that is, transactions made by individuals and companies. During 2019, electronic transfers increased, and payments made with debit and credit cards continued to trend upward. In contrast, payments by check continued to decline, although the average daily value was almost four times the value of debit and credit card purchases. The same section contains the results of the fourth survey on how the use of retail-value payment instruments (for usual payments) is perceived. Conducted at the end of 2019, the main purpose of the survey was to identify the availability of these payment instruments, the public’s preferences for them, and their acceptance by merchants. It is worth noting that cash continues to be the instrument most used by the population for usual monthly payments (88.1% with respect to the number of payments and 87.4% in value). However, its use in terms of value has declined, having registered 89.6% in the 2017 survey. In turn, the level of acceptance by merchants of payment instruments other than cash is 14.1% for debit cards, 13.4% for credit cards, 8.2% for electronic transfers of funds and 1.8% for checks. The main reason for the use of cash is the absence of point-of-sale terminals at commercial establishments. Considering that the retail-payment market worldwide is influenced by constant innovation in payment services, by the modernization of clearing and settlement systems, and by the efforts of regulators to redefine the payment industry for the future, these trends are addressed in the fourth section of the report. There is an account of how innovations in technology-based financial payment services have developed, and it shows that while this topic is not new, it has evolved, particularly in terms of origin and vocation. One of the boxes that accompanies the fourth section deals with certain payment aspects of open banking and international experience in that regard, which has given the customers of a financial entity sovereignty over their data, allowing them, under transparent and secure conditions, to authorize a third party, other than their financial entity, to request information on their accounts with financial entities, thus enabling the third party to offer various financial services or initiate payments. Innovation also has sparked interest among international organizations, central banks, and research groups concerning the creation of digital currencies. Accordingly, the last box deals with the recent international debate on issuance of central bank digital currencies. In terms of the methodological progress that has been made, it is important to underscore the work that has been done on the role of central counterparties (CCPs) in mitigating liquidity and counterparty risk. The fifth section of the report offers an explanation of a document in which the work of CCPs in financial markets is analyzed and corroborated through an exercise that was built around the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC) in the Colombian market for non-delivery peso-dollar forward exchange transactions, using the methodology of network topology. The results provide empirical support for the different theoretical models developed to study the effect of CCPs on financial markets. Finally, the results of research using artificial intelligence with information from the large-value payment system are presented. Based on the payments made among financial institutions in the large-value payment system, a methodology is used to compare different payment networks, as well as to determine which ones can be considered abnormal. The methodology shows signs that indicate when a network moves away from its historical trend, so it can be studied and monitored. A methodology similar to the one applied to classify images is used to make this comparison, the idea being to extract the main characteristics of the networks and use them as a parameter for comparison. Juan José Echavarría Governor