Academic literature on the topic 'Credit services'

The most important tax credits available to low-income households with children are the earned income tax credit (EITC), the child tax credit, and the child and dependent care tax credit (hereafter, child-care credit). Only the EITC and the child-care credit exist in current law in the United States. This note will discuss some equity and efficiency implications of four commonly stated purposes of these credits within the tax/transfer system: greater progressivity, adjustments for the presence of children, greater choice among goods and services, and greater work incentives for low-income individuals.

This research aims to examine the relationships among evaluation of green credit card services, overall satisfaction with green credit card services, and loyalty to green credit cards.In addition, this search examines whether consumers’ green ethics moderates the relationship between evaluation of green credit card services and loyalty to green credit cards. An online survey (N = 2,000) was conducted to test the hypotheses. Consistent with all the hypotheses, the results indicate that (1) evaluation of green credit card services has a positive effect on overall satisfaction with green credit card services (hypothesis 1); (2) evaluation of green credit card services has a positive effect on loyalty to green credit cards (hypothesis 2); (3) overall satisfaction with green credit card services has a positive effect on loyalty to green credit cards (hypothesis 3); (4) overall satisfaction with green credit card services mediates the relationship between evaluation of green credit card services and loyalty to green credit cards (hypothesis 4); and (5) the magnitude of the positive effect of evaluation of green credit card services on loyalty to green credit cards increases as individuals’ green ethics decreases (hypothesis 5).

The study was carried out in Doyogena district, Kembata Tembaro Zone of southern Ethiopia to assess the awareness of farmers on saving and credit cooperatives, and examine the effect of SACCO‟s on household income generation. Multistage sampling procedure was used to select sample households. Structured interview questionnaires were prepared to collect brief information from the sample households by preparing interview schedule, focused group discussion and personal observation. For data analysis descriptive statistics like mean, frequency, percentages are used for quantitative data. In the study area, about 57.35% of respondents are member of saving and credit service in the study area. The age, sex and educational status of household determine the cooperative member of saving and credit services. About 97.43% households are a member of cooperative saving and credit services in the age group of 30-65 years, whereas for age of households between 18-29 years were 2.57 % in study area. About 97.43% of male household are a members saving and credit services.About 56.42% of sampled households are those who able to read and write were a member of saving and credits organization. The access to awareness (63.23%), income generation are >500ETB per months 41.23% respondents those are a member of SACCOs and 24.13% for non-members, un satisfy on adequacy and timeline less of loan and recovery rate(54.54%),weak governance and weak financial management system arethe effects saving and credit service of cooperative organization in study area. Most the users of agricultural input 12(51.61%) are the members of SACCOs. This might be due to use credit from SACCOs. But non-members of cooperative are not using agricultural inputs as members SACCO due to lack credit. Therefore, creation of awareness for members and non-members, and cooperative leaders important for saving and credit services in the study area.

Access to credit is essential for sustainable agricultural development. This paper evaluates the impact of formal and informal agricultural credit, access to extension services, and different combinations of agricultural credit and extension services on the economic outcomes of farming households in Afghanistan. This study applies a quasi-experimental approach (propensity score matching) and inverse-probability-weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) analysis. The data comes from a survey of 277 randomly selected farming households in the three districts of rural Afghanistan. The results show that having access to formal agricultural credit has a positive and differentiated impact on the farming costs and net revenue of farming households. However, the effects increase when a farming household has access to both formal credit and extension services. The results also reveal that credit constraints affect farming costs and net revenue. The study provides some practical implications for agricultural development policymakers. First, formal agricultural credit affects farm revenue in rural Afghanistan. Second, the impact of credit bundled with agricultural extension services on farm revenue is higher than the impact of the provision of each service separately. Therefore, a more sustainable agricultural credit arrangement should be supplemented by extension services for farmers in Afghanistan.

Introduction. The country's economy is still in a state where its development is hampered by the absence of clearly defined, priority programs to stimulate business and economic sectors, including through credit. Bank lending to business entities is an effective way of getting out of the crisis. Strengthening the role of credit relations as a means of stimulating the development of production is manifested in various aspects. Methods. Fundamental economic theories, lending theories, financial studies, as well as research by scholars and foreign scientists are investigated in the research. They used the generally accepted principles of scientific research to make their decision. A number of general scientific methods were used in the process of research, in particular: analogies and logical generalization (to study the prospects of bank lending); systematic analysis (to study the organization of the process of bank lending in the market of credit services), etc. Results. Based on the isolated problems, the foreign experience of countries such as the USA, Germany, Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Canada and Italy was explored, on the basis of which the prospects for improvement of the bank lending mechanism in Ukraine and credit monitoring of the borrower in particular were outlined. Discussion. Given the overseas experience of developed countries, it is possible to distinguish: a combination of different methods of restructuring problem loans; when assessing the potential risk of default on a loan, use different methods of determining it ("SAMRARI", "PARSEL" or "Rule 5 C"); when making class calculations, make corrective adjustments to the credit score of the borrower. Prospects for further studies of the credit services market may be the intensification of bank lending, which certainly implies further liberalization of refinancing policy, taking into account foreign experience. Keywords: credit, credit relations, credit policy, credit services market, bank lending.

The article analyzes modern tendencies and broadening dynamics of insurance companies’ and credit unions’ services in terms of world regions. The correlation analyses for finding lag relation between access broadening to the insurance companies’ and credit unions’ services and financial and economic parameters is held. The distribution-lag models for force and direction interrelation between access level to non-banking financial services and financial and economic regions development are elaborated. Keywords: financial inclusion, insurance company, credit union, lag, economic growth, regression

The Emergency Ordinance no. 99 of 6 December 2006, on credit institutions andcapital adequacy, presents the credit institution as "an entity whose business is to attractdeposits or other repayable funds from the public and to grant credits in its own account". The2006/48/EC Directive of the European Parliament and the European Council, presents thecredit institution as "an undertaking whose business is to receive deposits and other repayablefunds from the public and to grant credits for its own account" definition that seemsappropriate, justified by the fact that, in our opinion, the concept of undertaking is assigned tothose innovative and imaginative companies that produce goods. Since money is a commodityand economic agents that we call credit institutions produce money by reinventing themselvesevery day to keep up with technology, we consider that the idea of “undertaking” formulatedby the 2006/48/EC Directive of the European Parliament and of the European Council isappropriate and that these credit institutions be hereinafter referred to as undertakings andtherefore enterprises. We believe that the enterprise, in our case, the credit institutions, is amatter that produces, consumes and trades services in order to achieve positive economiceffects therefore saving and lending are their direct support. Moreover, credit is the source forfinancing growth and welfare, therefore the engine of the capitalist economy

Credit unions have been functioning on the financial market of Ukraine for more than twenty years, and necessity of their existence is still questionable. Imperfect system which controls credit unions in our country often leads to distorted activity. Investigating the uniqueness of the world credit unions and basic principles of their activity stipulated the necessity of a completely new approach to the evaluation of credit unions positions in the world market of financial services. Due to the analysis of penetration it is educed that credit unions embrace a substantial financial market share on different world continents. A cluster analysis revealed that credit unions with the similar functions belong to the same cluster. After investigation of management monitoring systems of credit unions in different countries it has been established that these systems are rather «ex»/ «post» indicators of the present credit unions problems. Relations between regulators and credit unions are of different types. «Three Bucket Approach» methodology for credit unions and theoretical aspects of the methodology, which involves reserve formation on loans and its application have been considered.

The article analyzes the development of the financial services market in the global financial crisis. Due to the influence of modern civilized culture of developed European countries, the demand for credit and credit services has increased and needs adjustment, preventive regulation, because society does not have the skills to forecast and take into account economic changes in the country and the world as a whole. However, the financial awareness and legal awareness of consumers of banking services is generally not high, which is the reason for inadequate initiatives and improper implementation of credit relations. Therefore, in light of the expanded demand for banking credit services, the authors emphasize that it is very important to study the characteristics of financial services, which will ensure adequate legal protection of private human rights in today's volatile economic environment. The authors analyze the development trends and favorable conditions for the formation of demand for credit services both nationally and internationally. Favorable circumstances that shape the demand for such services as a credit line are highlighted. The advantages of a line of credit are defined – the borrower can get a loan within a certain limit at any time when he needs it. The situation in the country with regard to the use of international credit lines is analyzed. The main attention is paid to the study of key, essential terms of the contract in view of the possible risks of its implementation and compliance with the rights of counterparties. The paper emphasizes the importance of an objective approach in determining the terms and limits of the credit line. It is determined that provided that the goal is clearly defined, which allows to assess the risks of the loan, and the establishment of correct limits and terms of loan repayment, proper development of credit relations is possible in which the rights of each party will have prospects.

The treatment of financial services under the VAT has been one of the most contentious VAT issues since the origin of the VAT. Due to theoretical and measurement complexities, most countries opt to exempt financial services under the VAT. Exemption is the cause of all the controversy. Exempting supplies under the VAT compromises one of the corner-stones of the VAT – neutrality. South Africa is one of many countries that exempts most financial services under VAT. Credit card suppliers in South Africa offer a bundle of financial services comprising fee-based-charges and interest earned. The credit card user is usually only charged for the interest. Interest is an exempt supply under VAT. This gives rise to many distortions for South African credit card users and financial intermediaries. Exhaustive research has been conducted on the treatment of financial services under the VAT around the world. This study only focusses on the VAT treatment of interest margins of credit cards in South Africa. Firstly, it was determined that credit card offerings in South Africa include bundled offerings which is impractical to separate on a transaction-for-for transaction-basis due to valuation complexities and market conditions. Secondly, it was determined that VAT doesn’t play a major role in credit card suppliers’ decision on how offerings are structured. It is mostly guided by the competition and legislation. Thirdly, it was determined that administrative burden and compliance cost caused by apportionment in South Africa is highly underplayed in the literature. Lastly, it was proposed that full taxation of all financial services with implicit charges at a lower rate or full taxation of fee-based charges with exemption of financial services with a partial input recovery, to be the best alternatives for South Africa to consider to tax financial services under VAT.
Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2013.
am2014
Taxation
unrestricted

This project develops and analyzes a business plan for Media Benefits Corporation, a subsidiary of First Entertainment Credit Union. The business plan will address the recent trend to move certain services back to the credit union and make recommendations as to how Media Benefits Corporation should continue to exist. Issues concerning liability will also be addressed in the plan.

Dissertation (PhD) -- University of Stellenbosch, 2005.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study was motivated by the need to determine the key factors that influence credit demand and credit rationing in the informal financial markets so as to contribute to policy formulation to improve access for the poor in Uganda to the broader (formal and informal) financial sector. The results of the study suggest that credit demand in the informal financial sector is positively and significantly influenced by capacity related variables (education level, and household expenditure) at the household level, and the informal lenders' credit rationing behaviour is also negatively and significantly influenced by household wealth factors (asset values). The same variables have similar effects in the models for credit demand and credit rationing in the broader financial sector. Since households demand credit for both investment and consumption smoothing, improved access to the broader financial sector will enable them to acquire more wealth, and move out of poverty in the long run. The policy options to improve small borrower access to the broader financial sector include provision of incentives to banks to serve the smaller borrowers, development of credit reference bureaus, provision of innovative insurance products to the poor, and broader economic policies that enable households to acquire more wealth. In addition appropriate linkages need to be developed between the formal and informal financial sectors so as to broaden the financial system.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie is gemotiveer deur die behoefte om die sleutelfaktore te identifiseer wat die vraag na krediet en kredietrantsoenering in die informele finansiele markte bemvloed ten einde In bydrae te kan maak tot beleid om beter toegang vir die armes tot die bree (formele en informele) finansiele sektor in Uganda te bewerkstellig. Die resultate van die studie dui aan dat die vraag na informele krediet In betekenisvolle en positiewe verwantskap toon met kapasiteitsverwante veranderlikes (vlak van opvoeding en huishoudelike besteding) op die huishoudingvlak. Informele uitleners se kredietrantsoeneringsoptrede toon In betekenisvolle en negatiewe verwantskap met huishoudings se vlak van rykdom (batewaardes). Dieselfde veranderlikes toon soortgelyke verwantskappe in die geval van die modelle vir kredietvraag en kredietrantsoenering in die bree finansiele sektor. Huishoudings se vraag na krediet is vir beide investeringsdoeleindes en om In meer egalige verspreiding van verbruik te verkry. Daarom sal verbeterde toegang tot die bree finansiele sektor hulle in staat stel om meer rykdom te bekom en so uit armoede in die langer termyn te ontsnap. Die beleidsopsies om kleiner leners beter toegang tot die bree finansiele sektor te bied, sluit in voorsiening vir insentiewe aan banke om klein leners te bedien, die ontwikkeling van kredietverwysingsburo's, die voorsiening van innoverende versekeringsprodukte aan die armes, en breer ekonomiese beleid wat huishoudings in staat sal stel om meer rydom te bekom. Toepaslike skakeling tussen die formele en informele finansiele sektore moet ook ontwikkel word ten einde In verbreding van die finansiele sektor te bewerkstellig.

Based on research into the area of financial service delivery it has become obvious that convenience and simplicity are the keys to success in the future as far as delivering financial services to consumers. This thesis discusses how this convenience and simplicity will be accomplished. It also covers the changes that need to be made and the financial impact on the institutions.

Cette thèse étudie différentes questions en lien avec la régulation des coopératives de crédit (CC, credit unions en anglais), et plus particulièrement les régulations de capital et de liquidité. Elle comprend trois essais. Les données utilisées proviennent essentiellement du National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) des États-Unis. Dans le premier essai, nous étudions l’effet du capital sur les activités de prêt des CC en utilisant les régressions quantiles. Nous trouvons que la croissance des prêts des CC diminue à mesure que leur ratio de capital augmente, et cela pour les 60 premiers centiles du taux de croissance des prêts. Pour chaque quantile, l'impact négatif est plus marqué lors de la crise financière de 2007-2009. Les résultats ne sont pas identiques pour les CC complexes (taille des actifs > 100 millions$-US) et les CC non-complexes (taille des actifs ≤ 100 millions$-US). Pour les CC non complexes, des ratios de capital plus élevés se traduisent par un taux de croissance des prêts plus faible pour la plupart des quantiles, tandis que le ratio de capital n'est pas déterminant dans la croissance des prêts des CC complexes. Dans cet essai, nous fournissons également un moyen de tester laquelle de la demande ou de l'offre est le facteur le plus important de la variation des prêts pour les CC. Dans le deuxième essai, nous analysons l’interaction entre le capital et la liquidité dans les CC. L’essai examine le comportement d'ajustement de la liquidité des CC à la suite de chocs exogènes de capital. Nous trouvons en premier lieu que la majorité des CC non complexes auraient satisfait à l’exigence du ratio de liquidité NSFR s’il avait été en vigueur tandis que les CC complexes n’y auraient pas satisfait. De plus, après avoir subi des chocs exogènes du capital, les CC non complexes augmentent leur position de liquidité tout en améliorant simultanément leur ratio de capital, ce qui n'est pas le cas pour les CC complexes. Ainsi, malgré l'absence de réglementation explicite de la liquidité imposée aux CC américaines, il existe une synergie entre le capital et la liquidité de sorte que les normes minimales de capital réglementaire suffisent à elles seules à atténuer, au moins en partie, le risque d'insolvabilité et le risque d'illiquidité dans les CC non complexes. Dans le troisième essai, nous testons si et comment les CC américaines gèrent activement leurs ratios de liquidité, et estimons la vitesse d'ajustement pour chaque CC séparément. La majorité des coopératives gèrent activement un ratio de liquidité assimilable au NSFR. Pour ce ratio de liquidité, les ajustements au niveau du passif du bilan sont plus fréquents que celles au niveau de l’actif mais les vitesses d'ajustement au niveau de l'actif sont plus élevées. Les CC qui ont une taille plus grande, celles dont le taux de croissance des prêts est plus élevé et celles dont le niveau de liquidité est plus bas, sont plus susceptibles de gérer activement leurs ratios de liquidité.
This thesis studies different questions related to the regulation of credit unions (CUs), and more particularly the capital and liquidity regulations. It includes three essays. The data used comes mainly from the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) of the United States. In the first essay, we study the effect of capital on lending activities of CUs using quantile regression. We find that CUs’ loan growth decreases as their net worth ratio increases for the first 60 percentiles of loan growth. For each quantile, the negative impact is stronger during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The results are not identical for complex CUs (asset size> US$-100 million) and for non-complex CUs (asset size ≤ US$-100 million). For non-complex CUs, higher capital ratios imply lower loan growth rates for most quantiles, while the capital ratio is not determinant in the loan growth of complex CUs. In the first essay, we also provide a way of testing which of demand and supply is the more important driver of loan variation for CUs. In the second essay, we analyze the interaction between capital and liquidity in CUs. The essay examines the adjustment behavior of CUs’ liquidity following exogenous capital shocks. We find that the majority of non-complex CUs would have met the NSFR requirement if it had been in effect, while complex ones would not have. Moreover, after experiencing exogenous capital shocks, non-complex CUs increase their liquidity position while simultaneously improving their capital ratio, which is not the case for complex CUs. Thus, despite the absence of explicit liquidity regulation imposed on CUs, there is a synergy between capital and liquidity such that minimum regulatory capital standards alone are enough to mitigate, at least partly, both insolvency risk and illiquidity risk in noncomplex CUs. In the third essay, we test whether and how CUs actively manage their liquidity ratios and estimate the adjustment speed for each CU separately. The majority of CUs actively manage a liquidity ratio consistent with the NSFR. Adjustments on the liability side are more frequent but adjustment speeds on the asset side are higher. Larger CUs, CUs with higher loan growth rates and CUs with lower liquidity ratio levels are more likely to actively manage their liquidity ratios.

Magister Artium (Development Studies) - MA(DVS)
This thesis is both a qualitative and quantitative study, investigating the sustainability of Credit Management Services Limited (CMS) within the broader context of the Zambian micro finance industry. Micro finance is regarded as one of the tools for poverty reduction. As such, making microfinance available to many poor people is the purpose of microJinance. Over the years it has become clear that microfinance institutions have to operate efficiently and be self-sustai nable in order to continue assisting the poor. However. in spite of the support and encouragement given for sustainability, evidence shows that there are few sustainable microfinanee institutions in the world. The various factors impacting upon sustainability therefore, need to be examined and means of enhancing sustainabi Ii ty mapped out. The study brought to the fo re the main viewpoints regarding sustainability and how they have been inl1uenced by experiences of MFls around the world. The framework for discussion and analysis of operational sustainability, financial sustainability and operational e ffi ciency is also set out. The study discusses the Zambian microfinance industry and shows how and why the industry has emerged and grown in the past decade. Some constraints are identified that need to be dealt with in order to enhance sustainability of the industry. The study of CMS reveals that the institution is not yet fi nancially sustainable, but that its effi ciency levels are steadily increasing as it has put in place mechanisms to recover costs, charge economic rates of interest and increase and maintain its client outreach. Indicators are that it is moving in the right direction with its cost recovery. increasing client outreach and utilization of loans for on-lending as opposed to subsidies. This study therefore draws on the general experiences of the Credit management Services in order to draw lessons for the Zambian industry. The study will argue the case that though sustainability is difiicult to achieve, there arc positive indicators in the Zambian industry that this is possible and that CMS could be considered as an example. This claim is verified against the experi ence on the ground of Credit Management Services. The study concludes that building a sustainable microfinance industry anywhere is not the easiest task. Sustainabi lity is possible but requires a lot of investment in capacity bui lding and del iberate steps for cost effi ciency, appropriate pricing poli cies and an increased client outreach. The Zambian situation characterised by even a younger industry. will require not only a concerted effort in capacity building, but much more, the need to counter constra ints in the external environment of Mrls. Recommendations lo stake holders inc lude the need to utilise cheaper local human resources and invest in strengthening local institutions owned by local communities, to enhance the sustainability or micro finance initiatives.

Within the flourishing area of new economic geography, increased attention is currently being paid to a variety of 'alternative' sources of credit and finance. As one of these forms, British credit unions are currently particularly 'sexy'. One reason for this status relates to increasing interest (both within the academy and outside) in the role(s) credit unions can play in relieving the effects of financial exclusion and poverty throughout Britain. In the context of the growing concerns of 'New Labour' about these issues, credit unions are progressively being posited as one route to a more inclusive society, both in social and economic terms. However, through an analysis that positions credit unions as 'civil', embodied, institutions in the specific context of their development in Kingston upon Hull, this thesis proposes that the achievement of such a goal is not a straightforward issue. This work questions the extent to which British credit unions have historically contributed towards financial inclusion, finding that such evidence remains partial and somewhat underlain by a 'faith' in the merits of the credit union model. As a consequence, it emphasises that in taking the route to a more financially included society through increased usage of credit unions, a number of barriers to their development and growth will have to be surmounted. These barriers are highlighted within this work through an exploration of a prevailing credit union discourse, which draws attention to the linkages between the structural features of the British credit union environment, and the manifestations of these features within localities such as Hull. In so doing, it concludes by outlining a number of challenges and changes facing the British movement that are reflective of a growing awareness of these barriers and their effects. It is argued that these features will broadly affect (and effect) the contribution made by credit unions within a more (financially) inclusive society in the years to come.

Credit is seen in Economic Literature as one of development drivers, promoting investment, smoothing consumption, allowing for risk sharing and the use of new production technologies. Our objective is to analyze if the physical presence of banks through bank branches is still relevant to develop local credit markets in Brazil. Since there are unobservable market characteristics that could drive both credit and bank entry, the relation between credit and branches may suffer from endogeneity. Therefore, the simple regression of credit on bank branches would be biased. To try to deal with this endogeneity, we employ an IO framework to model firm entry and use the estimated result as an instrument for observed bank branches. We find that estimations using expected values or predicted probabilities of bank branches show little to no effect of bank branches on credit. The same result is achieved when using a second IO model as an additional analysiss
A Literatura Econômica de desenvolvimento aponta o crédito como um dos determinantes do desenvolvimento econômico, que promove investimentos, suavização do consumo, mitigação do risco e uso de novas tecnologias de produção. O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em analisar se a presença física de bancos por meio da agência bancária ainda é relevante para o desenvolvimento de mercados locais de crédito no Brasil. A relação entre crédito e agências bancárias pode sofrer de endogeneidade, uma vez que existem características de mercado não-observáveis que podem afetar tanto crédito quanto a entrada de bancos nos mercados. Para tratar esta endogeneidade, se propõe o uso de um framework de OI para modelar a decisão de entrada de firmas. A partir destes modelos, utiliza-se o resultado previsto como instrumento para as agências bancárias observadas. O resultado encontrado é de que, ao utilizar o valor esperado de agências ou a probabilidade estimada de haver agência, o impacto de agência em crédito se reduz significativamente e é nulo na maioria das especificações e para a maior parte dos anos da amostra. O uso de um segundo modelo de OI como teste secundário teve o mesmo resultado

The author starts from the thesis about the service contract as a special type of contract, which, in his opinion, points to the inevitable application of general contract law and to these contracts, too. Knowledge of this type of contract law and of general contract law are of extremely important today. The author refers in his work to two types of contracts of services. One is a credit agreement with the use of a currency clause and the conversion of one currency to another, with a tendency to maintain a contract in force as a whole. The another example is an agreement on the use of electronic communications services in case of unilateral change of charge for the use of the service (to higher amount, by the operator). Legislative activity, as it seems, does not always follow the expectations of service users, and so it has been with credit users on a particular issue, but also with users of electronic communications services. The importance and control of general business conditions in the field of service provision are emphasized.

In this paper we estimate the average treatment effect from access to extension services and credit on agricultural production in selected Andean countries (Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia). More specifically, we want to identify the effect of accessibility, here represented as travel time to the nearest area with 1,500 or more inhabitants per square kilometer or at least 50,000 inhabitants, on the likelihood of accessing extension and credit. To estimate the treatment effect and identify the effect of accessibility on these variables, we use data from the Colombian and Bolivian Agricultural Censuses of 2013 and 2014, respectively; a national agricultural survey from 2017 for Peru; and geographic information on travel time. We find that the average treatment effect for extension is higher compared to that of credit for farms in Bolivia and Peru, and lower for Colombia. The average treatment effects of extension and credit for Peruvian farms are $2,387.45 and $3,583.42 respectively. The average treatment effect for extension and credit are $941.92 and $668.69, respectively, while in Colombia are $1,365.98 and $1,192.51, respectively. We also find that accessibility and the likelihood of accessing these services are nonlinearly related. Results indicate that higher likelihood is associated with lower travel time, especially in the analysis of credit.

Access to piped sewage in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) cities has been on the rise in recent decades. Yet achieving high rates of end-user connection between dwellings and sewage pipelines remains a challenge for water and sanitation utilities. Governments throughout the region are investing millions in increasing access to sewage services but are failing in the last mile. When households do not connect to the sewage system, the full health and social benefits of sanitation investments fail to accrue, and utilities can face lost revenue and higher operating costs. Barriers to connect are diverse, including low willingness to pay for connection costs and/or the associated tariffs, liquidity and credit constrains to cover the cost of upgrades or repairs, information gaps on the benefits of connecting, behavioral obstacles, and collective action failures. In contexts of weak regulation and strong social pressure, utilities typically lack the ability to enforce connection through fines and legal action. This paper explores the scope of the connectivity problem, identifies potential connection barriers, and discusses policy solutions. A research agenda is proposed in support of evidence-based interventions that have the potential to achieve higher effective sanitation coverage more rapidly and cost-effectively in LAC. This research agenda must focus on: i) quantifying the scope of the problem; ii) understanding the barriers that trigger it; and iii) identifying the most cost-effective policy and market-based solutions.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This paper aims to estimate the future long-term care needs and expenditures in Quebec while proposing and evaluating a reform package that could deliver increased coverage as well as be more financially sustainable than current policy. This reform package consists of a shift towards more intensive use of home care while increasing public coverage of care needs. A key feature of the proposed reform is to improve the ability of users to choose their provider with the creation of a senior’s care account, an account that grants individuals in need to purchase services from several providers, including both home and institutional care. To improve the neutrality of public support across care arrangements, we also propose to increase residents’ contribution in nursing homes while favoring the continued use of existing tax credits to help seniors with lower needs in terms of care. Using detailed dynamic modelling of care needs, living arrangements, and expenditures, we estimate that long-term care needs will grow rapidly in the next two decades and the costs will quickly become prohibitive under current policy. We show that substantial cost savings may exist.

This paper aims to estimate the future long-term care needs and expenditures in Quebec while proposing and evaluating a reform package that could deliver increased coverage as well as be more financially sustainable than current policy. This reform package consists of a shift towards more intensive use of home care while increasing public coverage of care needs. A key feature of the proposed reform is to improve the ability of users to choose their provider with the creation of a senior’s care account, an account that grants individuals in need to purchase services from several providers, including both home and institutional care. To improve the neutrality of public support across care arrangements, we also propose to increase residents’ contribution in nursing homes while favoring the continued use of existing tax credits to help seniors with lower needs in terms of care. Using detailed dynamic modelling of care needs, living arrangements, and expenditures, we estimate that long-term care needs will grow rapidly in the next two decades and the costs will quickly become prohibitive under current policy. We show that substantial cost savings may exist.