Academic literature on the topic 'Crime forecasting'
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Journal articles on the topic "Crime forecasting"
Tariq, Haseeb, Muhammad Kashif Hanif, Muhammad Umer Sarwar, Sabeen Bari, Muhammad Shahzad Sarfraz, and Rozita Jamili Oskouei. "Employing Deep Learning and Time Series Analysis to Tackle the Accuracy and Robustness of the Forecasting Problem." Security and Communication Networks 2021 (March 31, 2021): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5587511.
Full textKhairuddin, Alif Ridzuan, Razana Alwee, and Habibollah Harun. "Comparative Study on Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Crime Forecasting." Applied Mechanics and Materials 892 (June 2019): 94–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.892.94.
Full textStupar, Davor. "Criminal intelligence as a prerequisite for quality crime forecasting." Zurnal za bezbjednost i kriminalistiku 3, no. 2 (2021): 57–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/zurbezkrim2101057s.
Full textMohamad Zamri, Nurul Farhana, Nooritawati Md Tahir, Megat Syahirul Amin Megat Ali1, Nur Dalila Khirul Ashar, and Ali Abd Al-misreb. "Mini-review of Street Crime Prediction and Classification Methods." Jurnal Kejuruteraan 33, no. 3 (August 30, 2021): 391–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jkukm-2021-33(3)-02.
Full textGorr, Wilpen, and Richard Harries. "Introduction to crime forecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 19, no. 4 (October 2003): 551–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(03)00089-x.
Full textLee, YongJei, and SooHyun O. "Flag and boost theories for hot spot forecasting: An application of NIJ’s Real-Time Crime forecasting algorithm using Colorado Springs crime data." International Journal of Police Science & Management 22, no. 1 (August 12, 2019): 4–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1461355719864367.
Full textWang, Chenyu, Zongyu Lin, Xiaochen Yang, Jiao Sun, Mingxuan Yue, and Cyrus Shahabi. "HAGEN: Homophily-Aware Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Crime Forecasting." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 36, no. 4 (June 28, 2022): 4193–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v36i4.20338.
Full textLee, YongJei, O. SooHyun, and John E. Eck. "A Theory-Driven Algorithm for Real-Time Crime Hot Spot Forecasting." Police Quarterly 23, no. 2 (November 12, 2019): 174–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1098611119887809.
Full textAlwee, Razana, Siti Mariyam Hj Shamsuddin, and Roselina Sallehuddin. "Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models Improved by Particle Swarm Optimization for Property Crime Rates Forecasting with Economic Indicators." Scientific World Journal 2013 (2013): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/951475.
Full textGorr, Wilpen, Andreas Olligschlaeger, and Yvonne Thompson. "Short-term forecasting of crime." International Journal of Forecasting 19, no. 4 (October 2003): 579–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(03)00092-x.
Full textDissertations / Theses on the topic "Crime forecasting"
Chukwu, Idam Oko. "Public expenditures and crime in a free society." CSUSB ScholarWorks, 1999. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/1802.
Full textCohn, Ellen Gail. "The effects of weather and temporal variables on calls for police service." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.386413.
Full textBreetzke, Gregory Dennis. "Geo-analysis of offenders in Tshwane: towards an urban ecological theory of crime in South Africa /." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2008. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-01062009-141141/.
Full textAlshalan, Abdullah. "Cyber-crime fear and victimization." Diss., Mississippi State : Mississippi State University, 2006. http://library.msstate.edu/etd/show.asp?etd=etd-01232006-095728.
Full textВоскобойнік, І. І. "Статистичний аналіз та прогнозування рівня злочинності в Україні." Thesis, Одеський національний економічний університет, 2020. http://dspace.oneu.edu.ua/jspui/handle/123456789/12542.
Full textThe paper considers theoretical and methodological issues related to statistical assessment of offenses and crime in Ukraine. The dynamics of the crime rate in Ukraine is analyzed and the structure of crimes is analyzed. The analysis of regional features of crime prevalence in Ukraine is carried out. An analysis of development trends and crime rates in Ukraine.
Holm, Noah, and Emil Plynning. "Spatio-temporal prediction of residential burglaries using convolutional LSTM neural networks." Thesis, KTH, Geoinformatik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-229952.
Full textCicconi, Claudia. "Essays on macroeconometrics and short-term forecasting." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209660.
Full textis composed of three chapters. The first two chapters are on nowcasting,
a topic that has received an increasing attention both among practitioners and
the academics especially in conjunction and in the aftermath of the 2008-2009
economic crisis. At the heart of the two chapters is the idea of exploiting the
information from data published at a higher frequency for obtaining early estimates
of the macroeconomic variable of interest. The models used to compute
the nowcasts are dynamic models conceived for handling in an efficient way
the characteristics of the data used in a real-time context, like the fact that due to the different frequencies and the non-synchronicity of the releases
the time series have in general missing data at the end of the sample. While
the first chapter uses a small model like a VAR for nowcasting Italian GDP,
the second one makes use of a dynamic factor model, more suitable to handle
medium-large data sets, for providing early estimates of the employment in
the euro area. The third chapter develops a topic only marginally touched
by the second chapter, i.e. the estimation of dynamic factor models on data characterized by block-structures.
The firrst chapter assesses the accuracy of the Italian GDP nowcasts based
on a small information set consisting of GDP itself, the industrial production
index and the Economic Sentiment Indicator. The task is carried out by using
real-time vintages of data in an out-of-sample exercise over rolling windows
of data. Beside using real-time data, the real-time setting of the exercise is
also guaranteed by updating the nowcasts according to the historical release calendar. The model used to compute the nowcasts is a mixed-frequency Vector
Autoregressive (VAR) model, cast in state-space form and estimated by
maximum likelihood. The results show that the model can provide quite accurate
early estimates of the Italian GDP growth rates not only with respect
to a naive benchmark but also with respect to a bridge model based on the
same information set and a mixed-frequency VAR with only GDP and the industrial production index.
The chapter also analyzes with some attention the role of the Economic Sentiment
Indicator, and of soft information in general. The comparison of our
mixed-frequency VAR with one with only GDP and the industrial production
index clearly shows that using soft information helps obtaining more accurate
early estimates. Evidence is also found that the advantage from using soft
information goes beyond its timeliness.
In the second chapter we focus on nowcasting the quarterly national account
employment of the euro area making use of both country-specific and
area wide information. The relevance of anticipating Eurostat estimates of
employment rests on the fact that, despite it represents an important macroeconomic
variable, euro area employment is measured at a relatively low frequency
(quarterly) and published with a considerable delay (approximately
two months and a half). Obtaining an early estimate of this variable is possible
thanks to the fact that several Member States publish employment data and
employment-related statistics in advance with respect to the Eurostat release
of the euro area employment. Data availability represents, nevertheless, a
major limit as country-level time series are in general non homogeneous, have
different starting periods and, in some cases, are very short. We construct a
data set of monthly and quarterly time series consisting of both aggregate and
country-level data on Quarterly National Account employment, employment
expectations from business surveys and Labour Force Survey employment and
unemployment. In order to perform a real time out-of-sample exercise simulating
the (pseudo) real-time availability of the data, we construct an artificial
calendar of data releases based on the effective calendar observed during the first quarter of 2012. The model used to compute the nowcasts is a dynamic
factor model allowing for mixed-frequency data, missing data at the beginning
of the sample and ragged edges typical of non synchronous data releases. Our
results show that using country-specific information as soon as it is available
allows to obtain reasonably accurate estimates of the employment of the euro
area about fifteen days before the end of the quarter.
We also look at the nowcasts of employment of the four largest Member
States. We find that (with the exception of France) augmenting the dynamic
factor model with country-specific factors provides better results than those
obtained with the model without country-specific factors.
The third chapter of the thesis deals with dynamic factor models on data
characterized by local cross-correlation due to the presence of block-structures.
The latter is modeled by introducing block-specific factors, i.e. factors that
are specific to blocks of time series. We propose an algorithm to estimate the model by (quasi) maximum likelihood and use it to run Monte Carlo
simulations to evaluate the effects of modeling or not the block-structure on
the estimates of common factors. We find two main results: first, that in finite samples modeling the block-structure, beside being interesting per se, can help
reducing the model miss-specification and getting more accurate estimates
of the common factors; second, that imposing a wrong block-structure or
imposing a block-structure when it is not present does not have negative
effects on the estimates of the common factors. These two results allow us
to conclude that it is always recommendable to model the block-structure
especially if the characteristics of the data suggest that there is one.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Barbosa, Guilherme Valentim. "Análise de bolhas imobiliárias ao redor do mundo." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/24764.
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Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-19T13:06:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Guilherme Valentim Barbosa - Dissertação - 20180917.pdf: 947230 bytes, checksum: a6fd42e0aefd410304cfa0f0ba723d7b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-10
Este trabalho busca analisar empiricamente a existência de bolhas imobiliárias ao redor do mundo e identificar quando esses comportamentos explosivos no preço dos imóveis ocorreram. Os resultados foram obtidos por meio de uma metodologia recursiva de testes de raiz unitária, os testes SADF e GSADF propostos por Phillips e co-autores. Foram coletados dados de preços de imóveis para 28 países e seus respectivos índices de preços ao consumidor. Os resultados obtidos apontaram a existência de comportamentos explosivos em aproximadamente 90% das séries analisadas.
This study aims to empirically analyze the existence of real estate bubbles around the world and to identify when these explosive behavior in real estate prices occurred. The results were obtained through a recursive methodology of unit root tests, the SADF and GSADF tests proposed by Phillips and co-authors. Real estate price data were collected for 28 countries and their respective consumer price indexes. The results obtained indicate the existence of explosive behavior in about 90% of the analyzed series.
Singh, Prakash. "Time series forecasting on crime data in Amsterdam for a software company." Master's thesis, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/57826.
Full textIn recent years, there have been many discussions of data mining technology implementation in the fight against terrorism and crime. Sentient as a software company has been supporting the police for years by applying data mining techniques in the DataDetective application (Sentient, 2017). Experimenting with various types of predictive model solutions, selecting the most efficient and promising solution are the objectives of this internship. Initially, extended literatures were reviewed in the field of data mining, crime analysis and crime data mining. Sentient provided 7 years of crime data which was aggregated on daily basis to create a univariate dataset. Also, an incidence type daily aggregation was done to create a multivariate dataset. The prediction length for each solution was 7 days. The experiments were divided into two major categories: Statistical models and neural network models. Neural networks outperformed statistical models for the crime data. This paper provides the overview of statistical models and neural network models used. A comparative study of all the models on similar dataset gives a clear picture of their performance on available data and generalization capability. Evidently, the experiments showed that Gated Recurrent units (GRU) produced better prediction in comparison to other models. In conclusion, gated recurrent unit implementation could give benefit to police in predicting crime. Hence, time series analysis using GRU could be a prospective additional feature in DataDetective.
Miles, Thomas John. "Three empirical essays in the economics of crime /." 2000. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:9965120.
Full textBooks on the topic "Crime forecasting"
English, Kim. Measuring crime rates of prisoners. [Denver, Colo.?]: Colorado Dept. of Public Safety, Division of Criminal Justice, Office of Research and Statistics, 1992.
Find full textBabachinaitė, G. Nusikalstamumas Lietuvoje ir jo prognozė iki 2015 m.: Monografija. Vilnius: Mykolo Romerio universiteto Leidybos centras, 2008.
Find full textVserossiĭskiĭ nauchno-issledovatelʹskiĭ institut (Russia (Federation). Ministerstvo vnutrennikh del), ed. Sostoi͡a︡nie prestupnosti v Rossiĭskoĭ Federat͡s︡ii i ee dolgosrochnyĭ prognoz. Moskva: Ministerstvo vnutrennikh del Rossiĭskoĭ Federat͡s︡ii. Vserossiĭskiĭ nauchno-issl. institut, 1998., 1998.
Find full textChalka, Robert. Prognóza vývoja kriminality v Slovenskej republike. Bratislava: Akadémia policajného zboru v Bratislave, 2000.
Find full textBeken, T. vander. European organised crime scenarios for 2015. Antwerp, Belgium: Maklu, 2006.
Find full textSheilagh, Hodgins, ed. Mental disorder and crime. Newbury Park: Sage Publications, 1993.
Find full textDeadman, Derek. Forecasting recorded property crime using a time-series econometric model. Leicester: Public Sector Economics Research Centre, 1995.
Find full textMuraskin, Roslyn. Visions for change: Crime and justice in the twenty-first century. 4th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J: Prentice Hall, 2005.
Find full textBabaev, Mikhail Matveevich, and V. A. Kikotʹ. Kriminogennai︠a︡ situat︠s︡ii︠a︡ v Rossiĭskoĭ Federat︠s︡ii v nachale XXI veka. Moskva: VNII MVD RF, 2001.
Find full textSmirnyĭ, A. M. Tendent︠s︡ii prestupnosti v Rossii v nachale XXI veka. Moskva: VNII MVD Rossii, 2002.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Crime forecasting"
Gottschalk, Petter. "Forecasting Crime Occurrence." In Trusted White-Collar Offenders, 309–30. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73862-4_10.
Full textJohnson, Shane D., and Kate J. Bowers. "Near Repeats and Crime Forecasting." In Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 3242–54. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_210.
Full textFaujdar, Neetu, Yashita Verma, Yogesh Singh Rathore, and P. K. Rohatgi. "Crime Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis." In Advances in Interdisciplinary Research in Engineering and Business Management, 253–62. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-0037-1_20.
Full textMu, Yang, Wei Ding, Melissa Morabito, and Dacheng Tao. "Empirical Discriminative Tensor Analysis for Crime Forecasting." In Knowledge Science, Engineering and Management, 293–304. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25975-3_26.
Full textBeken, Tom Vander. "Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime." In Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks, 85–96. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230316911_6.
Full textDevi, J. Vimala, and K. S. Kavitha. "Time Series Analysis and Forecasting on Crime Data." In Algorithms for Intelligent Systems, 281–97. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6332-1_26.
Full textYu, Chung-Hsien, Wei Ding, Ping Chen, and Melissa Morabito. "Crime Forecasting Using Spatio-temporal Pattern with Ensemble Learning." In Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 174–85. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06605-9_15.
Full textPiraján, Freddy, Andrey Fajardo, and Miguel Melgarejo. "Towards a Deep Learning Approach for Urban Crime Forecasting." In Communications in Computer and Information Science, 179–89. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31019-6_16.
Full textMuthamizharasan, M., and R. Ponnusamy. "Forecasting Crime Event Rate with a CNN-LSTM Model." In Innovative Data Communication Technologies and Application, 461–70. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7167-8_33.
Full textHu, Xiaochen, Xudong Zhang, and Nicholas P. Lovrich. "Forecasting Identity Theft Victims: Analyzing Characteristics and Preventive Actions through Machine Learning Approaches." In The New Technology of Financial Crime, 183–212. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003258100-10.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Crime forecasting"
Borowik, Grzegorz, Zbigniew M. Wawrzyniak, and Pawel Cichosz. "Time series analysis for crime forecasting." In 2018 26th International Conference on Systems Engineering (ICSEng). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icseng.2018.8638179.
Full textYu, Chung-Hsien, Max W. Ward, Melissa Morabito, and Wei Ding. "Crime Forecasting Using Data Mining Techniques." In 2011 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops (ICDMW). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icdmw.2011.56.
Full textChen, Peng, Hongyong Yuan, and Xueming Shu. "Forecasting Crime Using the ARIMA Model." In 2008 Fifth International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD). IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/fskd.2008.222.
Full textBogucki, Robert, Jan Kanty Milczek, and Patryk Miziuła. "A simple crime hotspot forecasting algorithm." In 2020 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems. IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.15439/2020f5.
Full textMitchell, Mark B., Donald E. Brown, and James H. Conklin. "A Crime Forecasting Tool for the Web-Based Crime Analysis Toolkit." In 2007 IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium. IEEE, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/sieds.2007.4373988.
Full textMarzan, Charlie S., Maria Jeseca C. Baculo, Remedios de Dios Bulos, and Conrado Ruiz. "Time Series Analysis and Crime Pattern Forecasting of City Crime Data." In the International Conference. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3127942.3127959.
Full textRetnowardhani, Astari, and Yaya Sudarya Triana. "Classify interval range of crime forecasting for crime prevention decision making." In 2016 11th International Conference on Knowledge, Information and Creativity Support Systems (KICSS). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/kicss.2016.7951409.
Full textZhuo, Eugenia R., and Jake Libed. "Analysis of Crime Rates in Rizal Province using Crime Forecasting Models." In ICCMB 2020: 2020 The 3rd International Conference on Computers in Management and Business. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3383845.3383884.
Full textWawrzyniak, Zbigniew M., Radoslaw Pytlak, Paweł Cichosz, Stanisław Jankowski, Grzegorz Borowik, Wojciech Olszewski, Eliza Szczechla, and Paweł Michalak. "The data-based methodology for crime forecasting." In Photonics Applications in Astronomy, Communications, Industry, and High-Energy Physics Experiments 2020, edited by Ryszard S. Romaniuk and Maciej Linczuk. SPIE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2583580.
Full textM, Dhanush, Hasifa A. S, and Merin Meleet. "Crime Prediction and Forecasting using Voting Classifier." In 2021 Fourth International Conference on Electrical, Computer and Communication Technologies (ICECCT). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icecct52121.2021.9616911.
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