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Yin, Chang Ming, Xiao Jie Li, and Dan Fu. "Strong Consistency of Maximum Likelihood Estimators in Sequential-Cumulative Logit Model." Applied Mechanics and Materials 742 (March 2015): 445–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.742.445.
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In this article, for the sequential-cumulative logit model, we show that maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameter vector is asymptotically existence and strongly consistent under mild conditions
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Yan, Dongmei, and Yang Yang. "A Stochastic User Equilibrium Formulation for the Cumulative Prospect Theory-Based Cross-Nested Logit." Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2021 (June 14, 2021): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/9929015.
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The cumulative prospect theory provides a better description for route choice behavior of the travelers in an uncertain road network environment. In this study, we proposed a multiclass cumulative prospect value- (CPV-) based cross-nested logit (CNL) stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) model. For this model, an equivalent variational inequality (VI) model is provided, and the existence and equivalence of the model solutions are also proved. The method of successive averages (MSA), method of successive weighted averages (MSWA), and self-regulated averaging (SRA) method are designed and compared. In addition, the proposed multiclass CPV-based CNL SUE model is also compared with the multiclass utility value- (UV-) based CNL SUE model. The results show that the path flow assigned by the multiclass CPV-based CNL SUE model is more consistent with the actual situation. The impact of different model parameters on the cumulative prospect value (CPV) is investigated.
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Park, Sun-Sook. "A Study on the Determinants of Partner Violence Change Using Cumulative Logit Model." Correction Welfare Society of Korea 54 (June 30, 2018): 25–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.35422/cwsk.2018.54.2.
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Cappelleri, Joseph C., Stephen S. Bell, and Richard L. Siegel. "Interpretation of a Self-Esteem Subscale for Erectile Dysfunction by Cumulative Logit Model." Drug Information Journal 41, no. 6 (November 2007): 723–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/009286150704100605.
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Zhang, Xuxin, Xuesong Wang, Xiaohan Yang, Chuan Xu, Xiaohui Zhu, and Jiaohua Wei. "Driver drowsiness detection using mixed-effect ordered logit model considering time cumulative effect." Analytic Methods in Accident Research 26 (June 2020): 100114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2020.100114.
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Cheng, Chad Shouquan, Guilong Li, Qian Li, and Heather Auld. "A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Simulate Daily Rainfall and Extremes in Ontario, Canada: Potential for Climate Change Projections." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 49, no. 5 (May 1, 2010): 845–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jamc2016.1.
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Abstract An automated synoptic weather typing and stepwise cumulative logit/nonlinear regression analyses were employed to simulate the occurrence and quantity of daily rainfall events. The synoptic weather typing was developed using principal component analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure, and discriminant function analysis to identify the weather types most likely to be associated with daily rainfall events for the four selected river basins in Ontario. Within-weather-type daily rainfall simulation models comprise a two-step process: (i) cumulative logit regression to predict the occurrence of daily rainfall events, and (ii) using probability of the logit regression, a nonlinear regression procedure to simulate daily rainfall quantities. The rainfall simulation models were validated using an independent dataset, and the results showed that the models were successful at replicating the occurrence and quantity of daily rainfall events. For example, the relative operating characteristics score is greater than 0.97 for rainfall events with daily rainfall ≥10 or ≥25 mm, for both model development and validation. For evaluation of daily rainfall quantity simulation models, four correctness classifications of excellent, good, fair, and poor were defined, based on the difference between daily rainfall observations and model simulations. Across four selected river basins, the percentage of excellent and good simulations for model development ranged from 62% to 84% (of 20 individuals, 16 cases ≥ 70%, 7 cases ≥ 80%); the corresponding percentage for model validation ranged from 50% to 76% (of 20 individuals, 15 cases ≥ 60%, 6 cases ≥ 70%).
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Iyit, Neslihan. "Modelling world energy security data from multinomial distribution by generalized linear model under different cumulative link functions." Open Chemistry 16, no. 1 (April 30, 2018): 377–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/chem-2018-0053.
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AbstractEnergy securityis one of the major components of energy sustainability in the world’s energy performance. In this study,energy securityis taken as an ordinal response variable coming from the multinomial distribution with the energy grade levelsA,B,C, andD. Thereafter, the worldenergy securitydata is tried to be statistically modelled by usinggeneralized linear model (GLM)approach for the ordinal response variable under different cumulative link functions. The cumulative link functions comparatively used in this study are cumulative logit, cumulative probit, cumulative complementary log-log, cumulative Cauchit, and cumulative negative log-log. In order to avoid a multicollinearity problem in the data structure, principal component analysis (PCA) technique is integrated with theGLMapproach for the ordinal response variable. In this study, statistically, the importance of determining the best cumulative link function on the accuracy of parameter estimates, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests in theGLMfor the multinomially distributed response variable is highlighted. In terms of energy evaluation, by usingcumulative logitas the best cumulative link function,energy sources consumptions,electricity productions from nuclear energy,natural gas,oil,coal,and hydroelectric,energy use per capita and energy importsare found to have statistically significant effects onenergy securityin the world’s energy performance.
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Lee, Deogro, and Heuiju Chun. "Analysis of factor of life planners' satisfaction after turnover using the cumulative logit model." Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society 24, no. 6 (November 30, 2013): 1369–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2013.24.6.1369.
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Prasetyo, Rindang Bangun, Heri Kuswanto, Nur Iriawan, and Brodjol Sutijo Suprih Ulama. "Binomial Regression Models with a Flexible Generalized Logit Link Function." Symmetry 12, no. 2 (February 2, 2020): 221. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sym12020221.
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In binomial regression, a link function is used to join the linear predictor variables and the expectation of the response variable. This paper proposes a flexible link function from a new class of generalized logistic distribution, namely a flexible generalized logit (glogit) link. This approach considers both symmetric and asymmetric models, including the cases of lighter and heavier tails, as compared to standard logistic. The glogit is created from the inverse cumulative distribution function of the exponentiated-exponential logistic (EEL) distribution. Using a Bayesian framework, we conduct a simulation study to investigate the model performance compared to the most commonly used link functions, e.g., logit, probit, and complementary log–log. Furthermore, we compared the proposed model with several other asymmetric models using two previously published datasets. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the existing ones and provides flexibility fitting the experimental dataset. Another attractive aspect of the model are analytically tractable and can be easily implemented under a Bayesian approach.
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Indriany, Sylvia, Ade Sjafruddin, Aine Kusumawati, and Widyarini Weningtyas. "Identification of cumulative prospect theory parameters for mode choice model." MATEC Web of Conferences 270 (2019): 03012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201927003012.
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The use of Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) in decision making related to transportation risk is still much debated. Mainly because of the travel and socio-economic characteristics of the traveller it possible for different responses to the specified Reference Point (RP) as well as the loss aversion. This difference can be seen from the value of Cumulative Prospect Theory parameters. Therefore, this paper will discuss about the determination of parameters CPT which affect public transportation mode choice model in the course of work trip activity. The reference point as an essential part of this study is determined based on the average travel time of commuter worker from South Tangerang City to Jakarta. Data obtained from stated preference survey, Feeder Busway/Busway and Commuter Line Jabodetabek as mode alternative and travel time attribute as a risk factor. The Binomial Logit model which has transformed utility distribution and probability with CPT and the Least Square Method to be obtained the parameters. Finally, some conclusions can be drawn that the CPT parameters produced by this study, have closed the range of value requirements in the CPT theory. So that the parameter value can be used to model the probability of mode choice with the risk of travel time in the study area.
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Lu, QiQi, and Xiaolan L. Wang. "An extended cumulative logit model for detecting a shift in frequencies of sky-cloudiness conditions." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 117, no. D16 (August 27, 2012): n/a. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012jd017893.
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Mbunzi, Stephen M., Joseph K. Mung'atu, Anthony G. Waititu, Samuel M. Mwalili, Kenneth O. Ogila, Thomas N. O. Achia, and Daniel Nthiwa. "Severity of Infestation Levels of Tunga Penetrans in Central, Kenya: A Bayesian Cumulative Logit Model." International Journal of Statistics and Probability 10, no. 5 (August 20, 2021): 70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijsp.v10n5p70.
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Tungiasis is a neglected parasitic disease that significantly affects communities, especially in developing countries. This study developed a Bayesian severity of the jigger infestation model and its spatial counterpart. Putative determinants leading to different levels of infestation and the most affected areas were to be identified through the model. We collected data through a cross-sectional study with a multi-stage sampling design. A structured questionnaire was administered in each household to capture variables used for modelling jigger infestations. The severity of jigger infestation categorized for each individual was modelled against all the other predictor variables. It was also integrated with spatial data to determine the spatial distribution pattern of jigger infestation. A Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model was used to assess the association between various predictors and different infestation levels. Specifically, an ordered Bayesian Severity Hierarchical (OBSH) categorical model was obtained. This model was categorical based on the Counties (1-Nyeri, 2-Murang'a and 3-Kiambu). Results from this model showed that for a one-unit decrease in the poverty index at level 1 (individuals categorized as poor) there was about a 69% increase in the severity of jigger infestation. A one-unit increase in the percentage of clay in the soil increased the odds ratio of the severity of jigger infestation by a factor of 11.21 while a high percentage of nitrogen in the soil lowered the severity of infestation. Severity of jigger infestation reduced from the baseline, Nyeri County to Kiambu County. It also increased with increasing altitude due to a decrease in nitrogen levels.
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Purczyński, Jan, and Kamila Bednarz-Okrzyńska. "The Raybit Model and the Assessment of its Quality in Comparison with the Logit and Probit Models." Przegląd Statystyczny 64, no. 3 (September 30, 2017): 305–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.0824.
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A new model for a dependent variable taking the value 0 or 1 (binary, dichotomous) was proposed. The name of the proposed model – the raybit model – stems from the fact that the probability corresponds to the Rayleigh cumulative distribution function. The assessment of the quality of selected models was conducted with the use of four definitions of error: MSE, MAE, WMSE, WMAE. Two computational examples were considered, which proved that the raybit model yields smaller values of error than the logit and probit models. Computer simulations were conducted using a random number generator with a binomial distribution. They proved that for the values of the theoretical probabilityfor the interval Pi ∈ [0; 0.8] the raybit model outperforms the other two models yielding a smaller value of error.
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Ganguly, Shyam S. "Cumulative logit model in the analysis of endometrial cancer under a matched pair case-control design." Open Journal of Epidemiology 03, no. 04 (2013): 153–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojepi.2013.34023.
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Mozumder, Sarwar Islam, Mark J. Rutherford, and Paul C. Lambert. "A Flexible Parametric Competing-risks Model Using a Direct Likelihood Approach for the Cause-specific Cumulative Incidence Function." Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata 17, no. 2 (June 2017): 462–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1536867x1701700212.
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In competing-risks analysis, the cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF) is usually obtained in a modeling framework by either 1) transforming on all cause-specific hazards or 2) transforming by using a direct relationship with the subdistribution hazard function. We expand on current competing-risks methodology from within the flexible parametric survival modeling framework and focus on the second approach. This approach models all cause-specific CIFs simultaneously and is more useful for answering prognostic-related questions. We propose the direct flexible parametric survival modeling approach for the cause-specific CIF. This approach models the (log cumulative) baseline hazard without requiring numerical integration, which leads to benefits in computational time. It is also easy to make out-of-sample predictions to estimate more useful measures and incorporate alternative link functions, for example, logit links. To implement these methods, we introduce a new estimation command, stpm2cr, and demonstrate useful predictions from the model through an illustrative melanoma dataset.
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Gupta, Sunil. "Impact of Sales Promotions on when, what, and how Much to Buy." Journal of Marketing Research 25, no. 4 (November 1988): 342–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002224378802500402.
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The effectiveness of a sales promotion can be examined by decomposing the sales “bump” during the promotion period into sales increase due to brand switching, purchase time acceleration, and stockpiling. The author proposes a method for such a decomposition whereby brand sales are considered the result of consumer decisions about when, what, and how much to buy. The impact of marketing variables on these three consumer decisions is captured by an Erlang-2 interpurchase time model, a multinomial logit model of brand choice, and a cumulative logit model of purchase quantity. The models are estimated with IRI scanner panel data for regular ground coffee. The results indicate that more than 84% of the sales increase due to promotion comes from brand switching (a very small part of which may be switching between different sizes of the same brand). Purchase acceleration in time accounts for less than 14% of the sales increase, whereas stockpiling due to promotion is a negligible phenomenon accounting for less than 2% of the sales increase.
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Semmens, S., and W. Zhou. "Predicting backward erosion piping hazard, Lower Mississippi Valley, USA." Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology 54, no. 1 (July 29, 2020): qjegh2020–035. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/qjegh2020-035.
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Backward erosion piping (BEP) is a form of internal erosion and common failure mode along levees. Despite over a century of study, predicting where BEP will initiate is still a considerable challenge. This study proposes a new model for predicting BEP initiation focused on the widest range of applicability. A logit model is trained using data from 15 sites along the Lower Mississippi Valley. The included parameters are independent of geography or geological regime and exhibit recorded or suspected correlations to BEP. Three significant factors (95% confidence interval) are retained for the final model: cumulative clay thickness within the blanket (odds ratio (OR) 0.520), critical gradient (OR 0.001) and exit gradient (OR 63.15). Receiver operating characteristics analysis indicates an area under the curve of 0.823. The model demonstrates 71% classification accuracy, a dramatic 10% increase over previous logit model attempts. Model results are most applicable within 150 m of the levee toe to predict new incidents of BEP initiation. The final model is a useful tool for BEP assessment and mitigation efforts.
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Budden, Michael C., Yu Hsing, Connie B. Budden, and Michelle Hall. "Heads Or Tails (Success Or Failure)? Using Logit Modeling To Predict Student Retention And Progression." Contemporary Issues in Education Research (CIER) 3, no. 5 (November 9, 2010): 35. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/cier.v3i5.204.
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Using a sample of 2,137 university students and applying the logit model, we find that the probability for students to return in fall 2008 is higher with a higher cumulative GPA, a higher grade for SE 101, and a returning status in the previous semester. Several other explanatory variables are tested and have insignificant coefficients. A few variables such as the Board of Regent’s core requirements (CORE) and high school graduating GPA (HSGPA) have the expected signs and z-statistics closer to one, suggesting that the correlation coefficient may rise if the sample size were larger. The findings suggest that the cumulative GPA is a dominant factor and that the large number of failures in SE 101 may need to be examined in order to fulfill its described purpose: “a course designed to ensure first-year student success.”
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Saigusa, Yusuke, Tomohisa Maruyama, Kouji Tahata, and Sadao Tomizawa. "Extended Marginal Homogeneity Model Based on Complementary Log-Log Transform for Square Tables." International Journal of Statistics and Probability 7, no. 4 (May 28, 2018): 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijsp.v7n4p27.
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For square contingency tables with the same ordinal row and column classifications, McCullagh (1977) gave the marginal cumulative logistic model, which is an extension of the marginal homogeneity (MH) model using the logit transform. The present paper proposes a different extension of the MH model using the complementary log-log transform. In addition, the present paper gives the theorem that the MH model is equivalent to the proposed model and the equality of row and column marginal means holding simultaneously. In data analysis, if the MH model fits the data poorly, the theorem may be useful for seeing the reason for the poor fit. As example, the occupational status data for British father-son pairs are analyzed.
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Hsu, Wan-Hsiang, and A. Gregory DiRienzo. "Parsimonious covariate selection for a multicategory ordered response." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 26, no. 6 (October 1, 2015): 2743–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0962280215608120.
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We propose a flexible continuation ratio (CR) model for an ordinal categorical response with potentially ultrahigh dimensional data that characterizes the unique covariate effects at each response level. The CR model is the logit of the conditional discrete hazard function for each response level given covariates. We propose two modeling strategies, one that keeps the same covariate set for each hazard function but allows regression coefficients to arbitrarily change with response level, and one that allows both the set of covariates and their regression coefficients to arbitrarily change with response. Evaluating a covariate set is accomplished by using the nonparametric bootstrap to estimate prediction error and their robust standard errors that do not rely on proper model specification. To help with interpretation of the selected covariate set, we flexibly estimate the conditional cumulative distribution function given the covariates using the separate hazard function models. The goodness-of-fit of our flexible CR model is assessed with graphical and numerical methods based on the cumulative sum of residuals. Simulation results indicate the methods perform well in finite samples. An application to B-cell acute lymphocytic leukemia data is provided.
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Cao, Xueren, Dongming Yao, Xiangming Xu, Yilin Zhou, Kejian Ding, Xiayu Duan, Jieru Fan, and Yong Luo. "Development of Weather- and Airborne Inoculum-Based Models to Describe Disease Severity of Wheat Powdery Mildew." Plant Disease 99, no. 3 (March 2015): 395–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/pdis-02-14-0201-re.
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Disease severity of wheat powdery mildew, caused by Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici, was recorded weekly in fungicide-free field plots for three successive seasons from 2009 to 2012 in Langfang City, Hebei Province, China. Airborne conidia of B. graminis f. sp. tritici were trapped using a volumetric spore sampler, and meteorological data were collected using an automatic weather station. Cumulative logit models were used to relate the development of wheat powdery mildew to weather variables and airborne conidia density. Density of airborne conidia was the most important variate; further addition of weather variables, although statistically significant, increased model performance only slightly. A model based on variables derived from temperature and humidity had a generalized R2 of 72.4%. Although there were significant differences in model parameters among seasons, fine adjustment did not increase model performance significantly.
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Ali, Sabz, Amjad Ali, Sajjad Ahmad Khan, and Sundas Hussain. "Sufficient Sample Size and Power in Multilevel Ordinal Logistic Regression Models." Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 2016 (2016): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7329158.
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For most of the time, biomedical researchers have been dealing with ordinal outcome variable in multilevel models where patients are nested in doctors. We can justifiably apply multilevel cumulative logit model, where the outcome variable represents the mild, severe, and extremely severe intensity of diseases like malaria and typhoid in the form of ordered categories. Based on our simulation conditions, Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is better than Penalized Quasilikelihood (PQL) method in three-category ordinal outcome variable. PQL method, however, performs equally well as ML method where five-category ordinal outcome variable is used. Further, to achieve power more than 0.80, at least 50 groups are required for both ML and PQL methods of estimation. It may be pointed out that, for five-category ordinal response variable model, the power of PQL method is slightly higher than the power of ML method.
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CHANG, BI-JUAN, JOW-RAN CHANG, and MAO-WEI HUNG. "SEARCHING FOR LANDMINES IN EQUITY MARKETS." Annals of Financial Economics 09, no. 02 (September 2014): 1440004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010495214400041.
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Distressed firms in equity markets are like landmines in the battlefields due to their undetectability and devastating effects. This paper is concerned with distressed firms forecasting by the distance-to-default (DTD) and rare event logit (REL) models via public available data. Comparing these two models by cumulative accuracy profiles (CAP) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we conclude that the REL model performs better than the DTD model. The data contains US-listed firms on the S&P 500 for the period January 1986 to December 2012, including 2138 companies and 271,912 firm months, with 444 distressed firms. We set the dynamic thresholds as the last 6% of firms based on the historical cross-section distress rates. Upon Bayesian posterior probability examination, the REL model shows about 40–60% affinity with S&P Domestic Long Term Issuer Credit Rating records on average, and the rate increases to 70% in some situations. We conclude that the REL model can be a good warning indicator of distress in firms at least three years ahead.
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Li, Manman, Jian Lu, Jiahui Sun, and Qiang Tu. "Day-to-Day Evolution of Traffic Flow with Dynamic Rerouting in Degradable Transport Network." Journal of Advanced Transportation 2019 (December 23, 2019): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/1524178.
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Random events like accidents and vehicle breakdown, degrade link capacities and lead to uncertain travel environment. And whether travelers adjust route or not depends on the utility difference (dynamic rerouting behavior) rather than a constant. Considering travelers’ risk-taking behavior in uncertain environment and dynamic rerouting behavior, a new day-to-day traffic assignment model is established. In the proposed model, an exponential-smoothing filter is adopted to describe travelers’ learning for uncertain travel time. The cumulative prospect theory is used to reflect route utility and its reference point is adaptive and set to be the minimal travel time under a certain on-time arrival probability. Rerouting probability is determined by the difference between expected utility and perceived utility of previously chosen route. Rerouting travelers choose new routes in a logit model while travelers who do not choose to reroute travel on their previous routes again. The proposed model’s several mathematical properties, including fixed point existence, uniqueness, and stability condition, are investigated through theoretical analyses. Numerical experiments are also conducted to validate the proposed heuristic stability condition, show the effects of four main parameters on dynamic natures of the system, and investigate the differences of the system based on expected utility theory and cumulative prospect theory and with static rerouting behavior and dynamic rerouting behavior.
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Lessman, Stefan, Ming-Chien Sung, and Johnnie E. V. Johnson. "ADAPTING LEAST-SQUARE SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION MODELS TO FORECAST THE OUTCOME OF HORSERACES." Journal of Prediction Markets 1, no. 3 (December 14, 2012): 169–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v1i3.427.
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This paper introduces an improved approach for forecasting the outcome of horseraces. Building upon previous literature, a state-of-the-art modelling paradigm is developed which integrates least-square support vector regression and conditional logit procedures to predict horses’ winning probabilities. In order to adapt the least-square support vector regression model to this task, some free parameters have to be determined within a model selection step. Traditionally, this is accomplished by assessing candidate settings in terms of mean-squared error between estimated and actual finishing positions. This paper proposes an augmented approach to organise model selection for horserace forecasting using the concept of ranking borrowed from internet search engine evaluation. In particular, it is shown that the performance of forecasting models can be improved significantly if parameter settings are chosen on the basis of their normalised discounted cumulative gain (i.e. their ability to accurately rank the first few finishers of a race), rather than according to general purpose performance indicators which weight the ability to predict the rank order finish position of all horses equally.
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Deepnarain, Nashia, Sheena Kumari, Jordache Ramjith, Feroz Mahomed Swalaha, Valter Tandoi, Kriveshin Pillay, and Faizal Bux. "A logistic model for the remediation of filamentous bulking in a biological nutrient removal wastewater treatment plant." Water Science and Technology 72, no. 3 (May 12, 2015): 391–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2015.181.
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Biological nutrient removal (BNR) systems across the globe frequently experience bulking and foaming episodes, which present operational challenges such as poor sludge settling due to excessive filamentous bacteria. A full-scale BNR plant treating primarily domestic wastewater was monitored over a period of 1 year to investigate filamentous bacterial growth response under various plant operating parameters. Identification of filamentous bacteria by conventional microscopy and fluorescent in situ hybridisation indicated the dominance of Eikelboom Type021N, Thiothrix spp., Eikelboom Type 1851 and Eikelboom Type 0092. A cumulative logit model (CLM) was applied to elucidate significant relationships between the filamentous bacteria and plant operational parameters. The model could predict the potential abundance of dominant filamentous bacteria in relation to wastewater treatment plant operational parameters. Data obtained from the model corroborated with previous findings on the dominance of most filaments identified, except for Type 0092, which exhibited some unique traits. With further validation, the model could be successfully applied for identifying specific parameters which could contribute towards filamentous bulking, thus, providing a useful tool for regulating specific filamentous growth in full-scale wastewater treatment plants.
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Wang, Jian, Zhu Bai, and Xiaowei Hu. "The Effect of the Integrated Service Mode and Travel Time Uncertainty on Taxis Network Equilibrium." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2015 (2015): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/641418.
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This paper aims to discuss the trip mode choice problem by using cumulative prospect theory (CPT) rather than utility maximization from the network uncertainty perspective and evaluates the effect of the integrated service mode on taxi network equilibrium. The integrated service mode means taxis either are actively moving through traffic zones to pick up customers (cruising mode) or are queued at the center of a zone waiting for customers (dispatch mode). Based on this, CPT models are adopted to analyze the choice of customers’ trip mode. The travel time uncertainty of the network and the applicability of CPT are considered first, and the Nested Logit model was used to complete the trip mode split problem. Further, several relevant relationships including supply-demand equilibrium, network conditions, taxi behavior, and customer behavior perspectives were analyzed with respect to the integrated mode. Moreover, a network equilibrium model was established and its algorithm was designed. Finally, this paper presented a numerical example and discussed the taxi network equilibrium’s characteristic after introducing the integrated service mode.
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Polednik, Katherine M., Aleksandr R. Bukatko, Matthew Gaubatz, Matthew C. Simpson, Eric Adjei Boakye, Kahee A. Mohammed, and Nosayaba Osazuwa-Peters. "Cumulative odds of increased comorbid score in head and neck cancer." Journal of Clinical Oncology 37, no. 15_suppl (May 20, 2019): e17555-e17555. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2019.37.15_suppl.e17555.
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e17555 Background: Survival of head and neck cancer is impacted by known clinical factors, including anatomic subsite, stage of presentation, and treatment modality. An important clinical factor less explored is comorbidity burden. While it is known that a greater comorbidity burden is prognostic for poorer outcomes, it is unclear how the odds of presenting with increased comorbidity score is associated with head and neck cancer anatomic subsite. This study aimed at estimating the cumulative odds of increased comorbidity in head and neck cancer based on anatomic subsites. Methods: Data queried from National Cancer Database (2004-2015). Study sample (N = 328,504) consisted of Stage I-IV, Head and neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) patients, with no missing demographic variables (age, sex, race, insurance status, local income, local population density). Multivariable cumulative logit model was used to estimate outcome of interest: odds of higher Charlson-Deyo comorbid condition score(CDCC) at HNSCC diagnosis. Results: Compared to patients diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer (mostly HPV-related HNSCC), patients diagnosed with more tobacco-related HNSCC, such as laryngeal cancer (aOR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.65-1.73), hypopharyngeal cancer (aOR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.28-1.38), oral cavity (aOR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.23-1.29), and sinonasal cancer (aOR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.06-1.19) had greater odds of presenting with a higher CDCC. Patients with nasopharyngeal cancer did not statistically differ from oropharyngeal patients in odds of higher CDCC presentation. Conclusions: Patients diagnosed with cancers of larynx, hypopharynx and oral cavity (typically associated with tobacco and alcohol use) present with greater comorbid burden compared to patients diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer (typically associated with HPV). It is important that the role of comorbidity burden be recognized in head and neck cancer prognostication.
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Zhang, Jinbao, and Jaeyoung Lee. "Interactive effects between travel behaviour and COVID-19: a questionnaire study." Transportation Safety and Environment 3, no. 2 (April 13, 2021): 166–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/tse/tdab003.
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Abstract This study has two main objectives: (i) to analyse the effect of travel characteristics on the spreading of disease, and (ii) to determine the effect of COVID-19 on travel behaviour at the individual level. First, the study analyses the effect of passenger volume and the proportions of different modes of travel on the spread of COVID-19 in the early stage. The developed spatial autoregressive model shows that total passenger volume and proportions of air and railway passenger volumes are positively associated with the cumulative confirmed cases. Second, a questionnaire is analysed to determine changes in travel behaviour after COVID-19. The results indicate that the number of total trips considerably decreased. Public transport usage decreased by 20.5%, while private car usage increased by 6.4%. Then the factors affecting the changes in travel behaviour are analysed by logit models. The findings reveal significant factors, including gender, occupation and travel restriction. It is expected that the findings from this study would be helpful for management and control of traffic during a pandemic.
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Ács, Virág, György Kövér, János Farkas, Árpád Bokor, and István Nagy. "Effects of Long-Term Selection in the Border Collie Dog Breed: Inbreeding Purge of Canine Hip and Elbow Dysplasia." Animals 10, no. 10 (September 25, 2020): 1743. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani10101743.
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Pedigree data of 13,339 border collie dog was collected along with canine hip dysplasia (CHD) and canine elbow dysplasia (CED) records (1352 CHD and 524 CED), and an inbreeding–purging (IP) model was created. Ancestral inbreeding coefficients were calculated by using a gene dropping simulation method with GRain 2.2 software. Cumulative logit models (CLM) for CHD and CED were fitted using a logit-link Poisson distribution and the classical (F_W), and ancestral inbreeding (F_BAL, F_KAL, and F_KAL_NEW) coefficients as linear regression coefficients. The effective population size was calculated from F_W and decreased in the examined period along with an increase of F_W; however, slight differences were found as a consequence of breeding dog imports. CHD values were lowered by the expansion of F_BAL, as the alleles had been inbred in the past. For CHD, signs of purging were obtained. There was a positive trend regarding the breeding activity (both sire and dam of the future litters should be screened and certified free from CHD and CED), as years of selection increased the frequency of alleles with favorable hip and elbow conformation. Division of the ancestral inbreeding coefficient showed that alleles that had been identical by descent (IBD) for the first time (F_KAL_NEW) had a negative effect on both traits, while F_KAL has shown favorable results for alleles IBD in past generations. Some authors had proven this phenomenon in captive populations or experimental conditions; however, no evidence of inbreeding purge has ever been described in dog populations. Despite the various breeding practices, it seems that alleles of these polygenic disorders could be successfully purged out of the population with long-term selection.
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Cannon, Bryan C., Dawn T. Robinson, and Lynn Smith-Lovin. "How Do We “Do Gender”? Permeation as Over-Talking and Talking Over." Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World 5 (January 2019): 237802311984934. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2378023119849347.
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Gendered expectations are imported from the larger culture to permeate small-group discussions, creating conversational inequalities. Conversational roles also emerge from the negotiated order of group interactions to reflect, reinforce, and occasionally challenge these cultural patterns. The authors provide a new examination of conversational overlaps and interruptions. They show how negotiated conversational roles lead a status distinction (gender) to shape conversational inequality. The authors use a mixed-effects logit model to analyze turn taking as it unfolds in task-group discussions, focusing on how previous behavior shapes current interaction. They then use these conversational roles to examine how locally produced interaction orders mediate the relationship between gender and interruptions. The authors find a more complex process than previous research has revealed. Gender influences the history of being interrupted early in an interaction, which changes the ongoing behavioral patterns to create a cumulative conversational disadvantage. The authors then discuss the implications of these group dynamics for interventions.
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Yan, Qianqian, Tao Feng, and Harry Timmermans. "Investigating private parking space owners’ propensity to engage in shared parking schemes under conditions of uncertainty using a hybrid random-parameter logit-cumulative prospect theoretic model." Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 120 (November 2020): 102776. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2020.102776.
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B, Adekanmbi, D. "Multiple Binomial Regression Models of Learning Style Preferences of Students of Sidhu School, Wilkes University." International Journal of Statistics and Probability 7, no. 3 (March 13, 2018): 9. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijsp.v7n3p9.
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The interest of this study is to explore the relationship between a dichotomous response, learning style preferences by university students of Sidhu School, Wilkes University, as a function of the following predictors: Gender, Age, employment status, cumulative grade point assessment (GPA) and level of study, as in usual generalized linear model. The response variable is the students’ preference for either Behaviorist or Humanist learning style. Four different binomial regression models were fitted to the data. Model A is a logit regression model that fits all the predictors, Model B is a probit model that fits all the predictors, Model C is a logit model with an effect modifier, while Model D is a probit model also with an effect modifier. Models A and B appeared to have performed poorly in fitting the data. Models C and D fit the data well as confirmed by the non-significant chi-square lack of fit with p-values 0.1409 and 0.1408 respectively. Among the four models considered for fitting the data, Model D, the probit model with effect modifier fit best. There was a marginal difference in the measure of goodness-of-fit for models C and D. Since probit model usually do not lend itself to ease of interpretation, model C was focused on for interpretation of results. The four variables that made significant contributions to model C were gender, age, employment status and the interaction variable. Academic performance of the students measured by their GPA and the level of study of the students were not significant predictors of the learning style preference by the students. The results of Model C revealed that the likelihood that a student prefers Behaviorist learning style is negatively related to his or her gender, age, employment status, GPA and level of study. However, the likelihood is positively related to the interaction term: Gender* Age. The result also showed that every one year increase in age of the students leads to decrease in the log-odds of preference for Behaviorist learning style. Also the odds of an MBA student preference for Behaviorist learning style are 1.1925 times greater than the odds of an undergraduate student. The association between gender and age was significant, so that gender modifies the association between age and preference. The interaction term showed that both the male and female odds ratio indicate an increase of odds of Behaviorist learning style, with increasing age of students, but the rate of increase is greater for male students. Plots of residuals and other diagnostic procedures conducted further confirmed that models A and B did not yield good fit, while both models C and D though identified an outlier which was not influential, but the functional forms of the models appeared suitable and seemed to fit the data well, and were therefore considered adequate. The residual mean deviance of model C was slightly above 1 which an indication of a slight overdispersion problem in the model. Important issues arising from the study were also discussed.
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Soares, Sónia, Carlos Campos, João Miguel Leitão, António Lobo, António Couto, and Sara Ferreira. "Distractive Tasks and the Influence of Driver Attributes." Sustainability 13, no. 9 (May 1, 2021): 5094. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13095094.
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Driver distraction is a major problem nowadays, contributing to many deaths, injuries, and economic losses. Despite the effort that has been made to minimize these impacts, considering the technological evolution, distraction at the wheel has tended to increase. Not only tech-related tasks but every task that captures a driver’s attention has impacts on road safety. Moreover, driver behavior and characteristics are known to be heterogeneous, leading to a distinct driving performance, which is a challenge in the road safety perspective. This study aimed to capture the effects of drivers’ personal aspects and habits on their distraction behavior. Following a within-subjects approach, a convenience sample of 50 drivers was exposed to three unexpected events reproduced in a driving simulator. Drivers’ reactions were evaluated through three distinct models: a Lognormal Model to make analyze the visual distraction, a Binary Logit Model to explore the adopted type of reaction, and a Parametric Survival Model to study the reaction times. The research outcomes revealed that drivers’ behavior and perceived workload were distinct when they were engaged in specific secondary tasks and for distinct drivers’ personal attributes and habits. Age and type of distraction showed statistical significance regarding the visual behavior. Moreover, reaction times were consistently related to gender, BMI, sleep patterns, speed, habits while driving, and type of distraction. The habit of engaging in secondary tasks while driving resulted in a cumulative better performance.
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CARABIN, HÉLÈNE, STEPHEN T. McGARVEY, LAWRENCE JOSEPH, CLARE M. MARSHALL, REMIGIO OLVEDA, and STEVEN RILEY. "ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF INFECTION WITH SCHISTOSOMA JAPONICUM IN VILLAGERS OF LEYTE, PHILIPPINES. PART I: A BAYESIAN CUMULATIVE LOGIT MODEL. THE SCHISTOSOMIASIS TRANSMISSION & ECOLOGY PROJECT (STEP)." American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 72, no. 6 (June 1, 2005): 745–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2005.72.745.
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Ma, Zhenyuan (Eric), Abdul Rahman Masoud, and Ahmed O. Idris. "Modeling the Impact of Transit Fare Change on Passengers’ Accessibility." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2652, no. 1 (January 2017): 78–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2652-09.
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Accessibility “to” and “through” public transit has been one key transit planning indicator that reflects service quality. Occasionally, transit agencies may consider a fare change to maintain operations or to attract more passengers. However, transit agencies do not usually consider the effect of such fare change on passengers’ accessibility. This paper investigates that effect. A multinomial logit mode choice model is developed to measure the monetary value of transit users’ travel time. Then, the cumulative opportunity measure of accessibility is used to examine the change in job accessibility after a recent transit fare increase in the city of Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada. The results show that the loss in job accessibility resulting from transit fare increase is inversely proportional to the length of the trip, given a flat fare structure. The findings of this paper should be kept in mind before a transit agency rethinks transit fare structures. For example, a transit agency could consider applying a zone-based fare structure as opposed to a flat fare structure to ensure better equity for all transit users.
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López-Mendoza, Héctor, Antonio Montañés, and F. Javier Moliner-Lahoz. "Disparities in the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic between Spanish Provinces." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 10 (May 11, 2021): 5085. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18105085.
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Spain experienced a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in autumn 2020, which has been approached with different measures by regional authorities. We analyze the presence of convergence in the cumulative incidence for 14 days (CI14) in provinces and self-governing cities. The Phillips–Sul methodology was used to study the grouping of behavior between provinces, and an ordered logit model was estimated to understand the forces that drive creating the different convergence clubs. We reject the presence of a single pattern of behavior in the evolution of the CI14 across territories. Four statistically different convergence clubs and an additional province (Madrid) with divergent behavior are observed. Provinces with developed agricultural and industrial economic sectors, high mobility, and a high proportion of Central and South American immigrants had the highest level of CI14. We show that the transmission of the virus is not homogeneous in the Spanish national territory. Our results are helpful for identifying differences in determinants that could explain the pandemic’s evolution and for formulating hypotheses about the effectiveness of implemented measures.
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Agrawal, Shipra, Vashist Avadhanula, Vineet Goyal, and Assaf Zeevi. "MNL-Bandit: A Dynamic Learning Approach to Assortment Selection." Operations Research 67, no. 5 (September 2019): 1453–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1832.
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We consider a dynamic assortment selection problem where in every round the retailer offers a subset (assortment) of N substitutable products to a consumer, who selects one of these products according to a multinomial logit (MNL) choice model. The retailer observes this choice, and the objective is to dynamically learn the model parameters while optimizing cumulative revenues over a selling horizon of length T. We refer to this exploration–exploitation formulation as the MNL-Bandit problem. Existing methods for this problem follow an explore-then-exploit approach, which estimates parameters to a desired accuracy and then, treating these estimates as if they are the correct parameter values, offers the optimal assortment based on these estimates. These approaches require certain a priori knowledge of “separability,” determined by the true parameters of the underlying MNL model, and this in turn is critical in determining the length of the exploration period. (Separability refers to the distinguishability of the true optimal assortment from the other suboptimal alternatives.) In this paper, we give an efficient algorithm that simultaneously explores and exploits, without a priori knowledge of any problem parameters. Furthermore, the algorithm is adaptive in the sense that its performance is near optimal in the “well-separated” case as well as the general parameter setting where this separation need not hold.
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Nkosi, Sidwell Sabelo, Rosemary Sibanda, and Ankit Katrodia. "Mobile Technology as a Learning Tool in the Academic Environment." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 11, no. 2(J) (May 13, 2019): 92–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v11i2(j).2823.
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Education in South Africa is not equally accessible, and the quality of education is not the same across all educational institutions. Students from low-income societies are scoring lower marks in contrast to students from higher income societies. The influence on this is the unavailability of efficient educational resources and infrastructure. This study uses a focus group of 300 students from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) School of Economics. It attempts to examine and explain the effect of the use of mobile technology in academic activities within the school of economics at UKZN. The study divides the sample size into two groups, half is given mobile technology and the remaining group is deprived of mobile technology. The data is recorded in two educational production functions, namely Ordinary Least Squares and Logistic Regression Model. The cumulative distribution function examines the probability, in form of Logit, that a student passes economic if using mobile technology for academic activities or studying. Study findings indicate that it is imperative that institutions invest in mobile technology as their learning tool to improve throughput rate and it allows efficiency in all academic activities. Mobile technology enables students to be disciplined, effective and work ready.
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Alaimo, Leonardo Salvatore, Mariantonietta Fiore, and Antonino Galati. "How the Covid-19 Pandemic Is Changing Online Food Shopping Human Behaviour in Italy." Sustainability 12, no. 22 (November 18, 2020): 9594. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12229594.
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The advent of the Internet has significantly changed consumption patterns and habits. Online grocery shopping is a way of purchasing food products using a web-based shopping service. The current COVID-19 pandemic is determining a rethinking of purchase choice elements and of consumers’ behavior. This work aims to investigate which characteristics can affect the decision of online food shopping during the pandemic emergency in Italy. In particular, the work aims to analyze the effects of a set of explanatory variables on the level of satisfaction for the food online shopping experience. For achieving this aim, the proportional odds version of the cumulative logit model is carried out. Data derive from an anonymous on-line questionnaire administrated during the first months of the pandemic and filled by 248 respondents. The results of this work highlight that people having familiarity with buying food online, that have a higher educational level and consider food online channels easy to use, appear more satisfied for the food online shopping experience. These findings can be crucial for the future green global challenges as online shopping may help to reach competitive advantages for company sustainability.
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Filosso, Pier Luigi, Francesco Guerrera, Nicola Rosario Falco, Pascal Thomas, Mariano Garcia Yuste, Gaetano Rocco, Stefan Welter, et al. "Anatomical resections are superior to wedge resections for overall survival in patients with Stage 1 typical carcinoids†." European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery 55, no. 2 (July 18, 2018): 273–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ejcts/ezy250.
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Abstract OBJECTIVES Typical carcinoids (TCs) are rare, slow-growing neoplasms, usually characterized by satisfactory surgical outcomes. Due to the rarity of TCs, international guidelines for the management of particular clinical presentations currently do not exist. In particular, non-anatomical resections (wedges) are sometimes advocated for Stage 1 TCs because of their indolent behaviour. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the most effective type of surgery for Stage 1 TCs, using the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons retrospective database of the Neuroendocrine Tumors of the Lung Working Group. METHODS We analysed the effect of surgical procedure on the survival of patients with Stage 1 TCs. Overall survival (OS) was calculated from the date of intervention. The cumulative incidence of cause-specific death (tumour- and non-tumour-related) was also estimated. The impact of the surgical procedure (i.e. lobectomy vs segmentectomy vs wedge resection) on survival was investigated using the Cox model with shared frailty (for OS, accounting for the within-centre correlation) and the Fine and Gray model (for cause-specific mortality) using the approach based on the multinomial propensity score. Effects were estimated including in the model the logit-transformed propensity scores of segmentectomy and wedge resection as covariates. RESULTS A total of 876 patients with Stage 1 TCs (569 women, 65%) were included in this study. The median age was 60 years (interquartile range 47–69). At the last follow-up, 66 patients had died: The 5-year OS rate was 94.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 92.2–95.9]. The 5-year cumulative incidences of tumour- and non-tumour-related deaths were 2.4% (95% CI 1.4–3.9) and 3.9% (95% CI 2.5–5.6%), respectively. The analysis performed using the multinomial propensity score approach confirmed the significantly worse survival of patients treated with a wedge resection compared to those treated with a lobectomy (hazard ratio 2.01, 95% CI 1.09–3.69; P = 0.024). Similar effects of wedge resection are detectable for cause-specific deaths: tumour-related (hazard ratio 2.28, 95% CI 0.86–6.02; P = 0.096) and non-tumour-related (hazard ratio 1.74, 95% CI 0.89–3.40; P = 0.105). CONCLUSIONS In a large cohort of patients, we were able to demonstrate the superiority of anatomical surgical resection in Stage 1 TCs in terms of OS. This result should therefore be considered for future clinical guidelines for the management of TCs.
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Shahsavarinia, Kavous, Peyman Habibi, Ali Taghizadieh, Payman Moharamzadeh, Farzad Rahmani, Tahmoures PourSafar, and Neda Gilani. "Are Aorta Artery Diameter and Inferior Vena Cava Diameter a Reliable Predictor index in Traumatic Patients with Hemorrhagic Shock?" Journal of Research in Clinical Medicine 9, no. 1 (March 18, 2021): 14. http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/jrcm.2021.014.
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Background: Intravascular volume is the most important factor in determining patients' hemodynamic status. This present study aimed to assay the predictive value of aorta artery diameter and inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter in trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted on 69 trauma patients who referred to Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz. Inclusion criteria were all trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock. Patients with diseases such as liver disease,cardiovascular,coronary heart disease and concurrent dehydration were excluded. Odds ratios and Adjusted odds ratios for the risk of events were obtained using cumulative logit ordinal regression model with version 15 of Stata software. Results: There were 58 men (84/1%) and 11 women (15/9%) with an average age of 36.4±12.4 year. Findings showed that for one unit increase in the diameter of the aorta by controlling the effect of other variables, the odds of mortality decreased for 2% compared with hospitalization in ward or intensive care unit (ICU). The reduction was also statistically significant (P=0.037). Furthermore, by modifying the effect of other variables, one unit increase in the diameter of IVC during inhale and exhale, increases the odds of hospitalization in ward or ICU. Conclusion: This study showed that the diameter of the aorta and also the diameter of IVC during inhale and exhale can be used to predict the outcome of trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock and eventually to take steps for emergent and effective treatment.
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Marshall, Teresa, Alexandra Curis, Joseph Cavanaugh, John Warren, and Steven Levy. "Age 2- to 5-Year Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Intakes Predict Age 5- to 17-Year BMI Cluster Assignment, but Not %BF or FMI Cluster Assignment, Following Energy Adjustment." Current Developments in Nutrition 4, Supplement_2 (May 29, 2020): 1658. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cdn/nzaa063_056.
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Abstract Objectives Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intakes have been associated with obesity, generally assessed using body mass index (BMI). BMI is a surrogate measure of obesity, with % body fat (%BF) and fat mass index (FMI) considered more direct measures of BF. Our objectives were to predict age 5- to 17-year low, middle, and high BMI, %BF, and FMI cluster assignments from age 2- to 5-year beverage and energy intakes. Methods Iowa Fluoride Study/Iowa Bone Development Study participants were recruited at birth and followed longitudinally. Participants (n = 299) with at least two beverage questionnaires and 3-day diet records completed between 2–5 years and at least four of six dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans at 5, 9, 11, 13, 15, and 17 years were included in analyses. Beverage intakes (i.e., SSB, juice, water, milk) were calculated from beverage questionnaires and energy intakes from diet records. %BF and FMI were obtained from DXA scans. Ward's method for hierarchical clustering was used to identify low, medium, and high BMI, %BF and FMI clusters. Multinomial cumulative logit models were used to predict the dependent variables (BMI, %BF and FMI cluster assignments) from the independent variables (beverage and energy intakes) with adjustment for sex and/or socioeconomic status (SES). Results In multivariable models, SSB intake adjusted for other beverage intakes and sex was significantly associated with BMI, %BF, and FMI cluster, while energy intake adjusted for sex was also significantly associated with BMI, %BF, and FMI cluster. In a full model including all beverage and energy intakes, which was adjusted for sex and SES, both SSB and energy intakes were significantly associated with BMI, but not %BF or FMI. In the full model, for each 8 oz/day increase in SSB at 2–5 years, the odds of being in a higher BMI cluster as opposed to a lower cluster at 5–17 years increased by 73% (95% CI: 7%, 179%). In the full model, each 100 kcal/day increase in energy increased the odds of being in a higher BMI cluster by 11% (95% CI: 1%, 21%). Conclusions In separate models, both SSB and energy intakes predicted BMI, %BF and FMI cluster. When included in the same model, both SSB and energy intakes predicted BMI, yet neither predicted %BF or FMI, likely due to collinearity resulting from the association between SSB and energy intakes. Funding Sources NIH; RJ Carver Trust; Iowa Delta Dental.
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Mouronte-López, Mary Luz. "Modeling the Public Transport Networks: A Study of Their Efficiency." Complexity 2021 (August 13, 2021): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/3280777.
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The public transportation network (PTN) provides mobility and access to community resources, employment, medical care, infrastructures, and other resources in the city. This research studies the process of the formation of links among nodes in different real-world PTNs. We have found that this process may be appropriately explained by a generalized linear model (GLM) using local, global, and quasilocal similarity indexes as explanatory variables. In modeling, the response variable was described by a binomial probability density function, and the logit function was used as a link function. In the crossvalidation process, utilising a downsampling approach, both average accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metrics presented higher values than 0.99. The kappa parameter had magnitudes larger than 0.93 for most of the PTNs. In the final validation stage, recall and specificity metrics took the value 1. Accuracy and precision parameters were larger than 0.99 and 0.87, respectively, for the majority of PTNs. Only one of the PTNs required utilising a smoothed bootstrap approach in order to achieve better results. The similarity measures with the greatest influence on the model were determined. We also assessed the impact of link removal on the global efficiency of PTNs, considering several similarity indexes. Additionally, we find that most of the networks show low local and global efficiencies (≤0.20), as well as travel times with a relevant variability, exhibiting standard deviations larger than 790 seconds. Significant similarities exist between the cumulative probability distributions of the local efficiency in all PTNs. With respect to the centrality measures, the eigenvector centrality presented a strong correlation with the hub/authority centralities (>0.80), while the pagerank showed a moderate, high, or very high correlation with the degree in all PTNs, >0.50.
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Haun, Markus W., Isabella Stephan, Michel Wensing, Mechthild Hartmann, Mariell Hoffmann, and Hans-Christoph Friederich. "Intent to Adopt Video-Based Integrated Mental Health Care and the Characteristics of its Supporters: Mixed Methods Study Among General Practitioners Applying Diffusion of Innovations Theory." JMIR Mental Health 7, no. 10 (October 15, 2020): e23660. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/23660.
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Background Most people with common mental disorders, including those with severe mental illness, are treated in general practice. Video-based integrated care models featuring mental health specialist video consultations (MHSVC) facilitate the involvement of specialist mental health care. However, the potential uptake by general practitioners (GPs) is unclear. Objective This mixed method preimplementation study aims to assess GPs’ intent to adopt MHSVC in their practice, identify predictors for early intent to adopt (quantitative strand), and characterize GPs with early intent to adopt based on the Diffusion of Innovations Theory (DOI) theory (qualitative strand). Methods Applying a convergent parallel design, we conducted a survey of 177 GPs and followed it up with focus groups and individual interviews for a sample of 5 early adopters and 1 nonadopter. We identified predictors for intent to adopt through a cumulative logit model for ordinal multicategory responses for data with a proportional odds structure. A total of 2 coders independently analyzed the qualitative data, deriving common characteristics across the 5 early adopters. We interpreted the qualitative findings accounting for the generalized adopter categories of DOI. Results This study found that about one in two GPs (87/176, 49.4%) assumed that patients would benefit from an MHSVC service model, about one in three GPs (62/176, 35.2%) intended to adopt such a model, the availability of a designated room was the only significant predictor of intent to adopt in GPs (β=2.03, SE 0.345, P<.001), supporting GPs expected to save time and took a solution-focused perspective on the practical implementation of MHSVC, and characteristics of supporting and nonsupporting GPs in the context of MHSVC corresponded well with the generalized adopter categories conceptualized in the DOI. Conclusions A significant proportion of GPs may function as early adopters and key stakeholders to facilitate the spread of MHSVC. Indeed, our findings correspond well with increasing utilization rates of telehealth in primary care and specialist health care services (eg, mental health facilities and community-based, federally qualified health centers in the United States). Future work should focus on specific measures to foster the intention to adopt among hesitant GPs.
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Beemer, Geoffrey H., Patricia H. Goonetilleke, and Andrew R. Bjorksten. "The Maximum Depth of an Atracurium Neuromuscular Block Antagonized by Edrophonium to Effect Adequate Recovery." Anesthesiology 82, no. 4 (April 1, 1995): 852–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/00000542-199504000-00006.
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Background The inability of edrophonium to rapidly reverse a deep nondepolarizing neuromuscular block may be due to inadequate dosage or a ceiling effect to antagonism of neuromuscular block by edrophonium. A ceiling effect means that only a certain level of neuromuscular block could be antagonized by edrophonium. Neuromuscular block greater than this could not be completely antagonized irrespective of the dose of edrophonium administered. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a ceiling effect occurred for antagonism of an atracurium-induced neuromuscular block by edrophonium and, if so, the maximum level of block that could be antagonized by edrophonium. Methods In 30 adult patients, atracurium was administered to maintain a constant neuromuscular block. The level of block varied between patients. Evoked adductor pollicis twitch tension was monitored. Incremental doses of edrophonium were administered while the infusion of atracurium continued. Increments were given until adequate recovery occurred, as defined by a train-of-four (TOF) ratio > or = 70%, or until no further antagonism of the block could be achieved. The probability of being able to effect adequate recovery by antagonism with edrophonium was determined using a logistic regression model. Cumulative dose-response curves were constructed using the logit transformation of the neuromuscular effect versus the logarithm of the cumulative dose of edrophonium. Results In 14 patients with a block of 25-77% depression of the first twitch response, antagonism by edrophonium to a TOF ratio > or = 70% was possible, whereas in 16 patients with a 60-92% depression of T1, a TOF ratio > or = 70% was not achievable, indicating that a ceiling effect for antagonism by edrophonium occurred. A block of 67 +/- 3% (mean +/- SE) had a 50% probability of adequate antagonism. In patients in whom block was antagonized to a TOF ratio < 70%, 95% of the peak antagonistic effect occurred with an edrophonium dose of 0.8 +/- 0.33 mg.kg-1 (mean +/- SD). Conclusions There is a maximum level of neuromuscular block that can be antagonized by edrophonium to effect adequate recovery. The level corresponds approximately to the reappearance of the fourth response to TOF stimulation. It is probably safest to wait until this level of block occurs before edrophonium is given for reversal. Earlier administration will not hasten recovery.
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Hadi, Syamsul, and Nurul Fathiyah Fauzi. "PELUANG PENGEMBANGAN AGROINDUSTRI BERBASIS PERIKANAN LAUT DI DUSUN PAYANGAN DESA SUMBEREJO KECAMATAN AMBULU KABUPATEN JEMBER." Marine Fisheries : Journal of Marine Fisheries Technology and Management 7, no. 2 (November 19, 2016): 191. http://dx.doi.org/10.29244/jmf.7.2.191-201.
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<p><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>The development of agro-industries through the development of domestic industry based fisheries in the Payangan hamlet Sumberejo District of Ambulu Jember faced with various problems that started from the central issue is the level of knowledge and skills is relatively low, the ownership of venture capital is relatively limited, the production activities as individuals not groups, access difficult commercial lending and access to technology is also difficult. These conditions resulted in labor productivity and production quality is low. The purpose of this study were: 1) Knowing the agro-industry development opportunities based marine fisheries; 2) Analyze the added value of the fish catch if processed further; and 3) to analyze the socio-economic factors that affect the chances of developing agro-industries based marine fisheries. The method used is descriptive quantitative and qualitative survey techniques. Types of populations in this study were fishermen and craftsmen, artisans and fishermen of each sampl e taken as many as 10, 11 and 9 of the techniques of simple random sampling and quota sampling, while the data collection techniques used depth Interview. Analysis of the data used to answer the purpose of the first, second and third use analysis tools respective R / C Ratio, Value-added models Hayami and probability cumulative logit model. The results of this study concluded: 1) Opportunities-based agro-industrial development of marine fish in the study area is wide open (R / C = 4.61); 2) Activity based agro-industry marine fish that includes pemindangan, fogging and making shrimp paste provide added value as much as Rp 43,672.02 per kg per production process; and 3) Simultaneously five independent variables significantly affect the chances of developing agroindustry and the partial factor significant business experience, whereas other estimators factors had no significant effect.</p><p>Keywords: added value, agro-industry, development opportunities</p><p><br /> <strong>ABSTRAK<br /> </strong><br />Pengembangan agroindustri melalui pengembangan industri rumah tangga yang berbasis perikanan di Dusun Payangan Desa Sumberejo Kecamatan Ambulu Kabupaten Jember dihadapkan pada berbagai masalah yang dimulai dari masalah pokok yaitu tingkat pengetahuan dan ketrrampilan relatif rendah, kepemilikan modal usaha relatif terbatas, kegiatan produksi secara perseorangan tidak berkelompok, akses pinjaman modal usaha sulit dan akses teknologi juga sulit. Kondisi ini mengakibatkan produktivitas tenaga kerja dan kualitas produksi menjadi rendah. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah: 1) Mengidentifikasi peluang pengembangan agroindustri berbasis perikanan laut; 2) Menganalisis nilai tambah hasil tangkapan dalam bentuk olahan; dan 3) Menganalisis faktor sosial ekonomi yang mempengaruhi peluang pengembangan agroindustri berbasis perikanan laut. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah deskriptif-kuantitatif dan kualitatif melalui teknik survei. Target responden adalah nelayan sekaligus pengrajin, pengrajin dan nelayan, sebanyak masing-masing 10, 11 dan 9 orang melalui teknik simple random sampling dan quota sampling. Teknik pengumpulan data digunakan depth Interview. Analisis data yang digunakan untuk menjawab tujuan pertama, kedua dan ketiga digunakan alat analisis masing-masing R/C Ratio, nilai tambah model Hayami dan probabilitas komulatif Model Logit. Adapun hasil penelitian ini menyimpulkan: 1) Peluang pengembangan agroindustri berbasis ikan laut di daerah penelitian sangat terbuka lebar (R/C = 4,61); 2) Kegiatan agroindustri berbasis ikan laut yang meliputi pemindangan, pengasapan dan pembuatan terasi memberikan nilai tambah sebanyak Rp</p><p>43.672,02 per kg per proses produksi; dan 3) Secara simultan kelima variabel bebas berpengaruh nyata terhadap peluang pengembangan agroindustri dan secara parsial faktor pengalaman berusaha berpengaruh nyata, sedangkan faktor penduga lainnya tidak berpengaruh nyata.</p><p>Kata kunci: nilai tambah, agroindustri, peluang pengembangan</p>
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Dopierała, Łukasz, Daria Ilczuk, and Liwiusz Wojciechowski. "Sovereign credit ratings and CDS spreads in Emerging Europe." Equilibrium 15, no. 3 (September 7, 2020): 419–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.019.
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Research background: Sovereign credit ratings play an important role in determining any country’s access to the international debt market. During the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, credit rating agencies were harshly criticized for the timing of their announcements regarding ratings downgrades and the ranges of those downgrades. Therefore, it is worth considering whether the sovereign credit rating is still a useful benchmark for investors.
Purpose of the article: This article examines whether credit rating agencies still provide financial markets with new information about the solvency of governments in Emerging Europe countries. In addition, it describes the differences in the effect of particular types of rating events on financial markets and the impact of individual agencies on the market situation. Our study also focuses on evaluating these occurrences at different stages of the business cycle.
Methods: This article uses data about ratings events that took place between 2008 and 2018 in 17 Emerging Europe economies. We took into consideration positive, neutral, and negative events related to ratings changes and the outlooks reported by Fitch Ratings, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s. We used a methodology based on event studies. In addition, we performed Wilcoxon signed-ranks test and used a logit model to determine the usefulness of cumulative adjusted credit default swap (CDS) spread changes in predicting the direction of ratings changes.
Findings & Value added: Our research provides evidence that the CDS market reflects information regarding government issuers up to three months before ratings downgrades are announced. Information reported to the market by ratings agencies is only relevant in the short timeframe surrounding ratings downgrades and upgrades. However, positive credit rating changes convey more information to the market. We also found strong evidence that, in the post-crisis period, credit ratings provide markets with less information.
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Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham, and Eugene H. Blackstone. "Interval estimation for individual categories in cumulative logit models." Statistics in Medicine 26, no. 22 (2007): 4150–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.2854.
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Shipounova, Irina N., Natalia Petinati, Alexey Bigildeev, Natalia Sats, Nina I. Drize, Larisa A. Kuzmina, Elena N. Parovichnikova, and Valeri G. Savchenko. "Characteristics of Mesenchymal Multipotent Stromal Cells Determine Their Effectiveness for Acute Graft Versus Host Disease Prophylaxis after Allogeneic Bone Marrow Transplantation." Blood 124, no. 21 (December 6, 2014): 2484. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.v124.21.2484.2484.
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Abstract Introduction Allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (allo-BMT) is currently the only way to cure many hematoproliferative disorders. However, allo-BMT use is limited by severe complications, among which the most challenging is graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). As the conventional methods of GVHD prophylaxis are often inefficient new method involving the use of donors’ multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) was developed. In some cases prophylaxis of acute GVHD (aGVHD) failed. The reasons of the failure could be either the result of particular qualities of donor-recipient interaction, patient status or characteristics of MSC samples. The results of the aGVHD prophylaxis with donors’ MSC injections after allo-BMT in patients with hematological malignancies included in the randomized clinical trial (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01941394) were analyzed. In order to discriminate between effective and ineffective for aGVHD prophylaxis MSC samples were thoroughly analyzed. The growth and differentiation characteristics, relative expression levels of different genes were investigated in all MSC samples. Methods The study included 77 patients who received allo-BMT from related donors after informed consent. The patients were randomized into 2 groups: the first received standard prophylaxis of aGVHD and the second were additionally infused with MSC from the bone marrow of corresponding hematopoietic stem cells donor at day of WBC reconstitution >1*109/l. MSC were cultivated in aMEM with 4% donors’ platelet lysate. MSC were administered intravenously when the blood counts indicated recovery (peripheral blood leukocytes reached 1x109/l). MSCs and colony-forming unit-fibroblasts (CFU-Fs) from the bone marrow of those donors were analyzed. For this purpose MSC were cultivated in standard conditions (aMEM, 10% fetal calf serum) for 5 passages. Relative expression level (REL) of 30 genes involved in proliferation, differentiation and immunomodulation was estimated by RT-qPCR in all MSC samples. Results The infusion of MSC reduced the incidence of aGVHD 2 times and increased the 5 years overall survival of patients (p=0.047). Four of 39 MSC samples have been ineffective for preventing aGVHD. Analysis of individual donor characteristics (gender, age, body mass index), the MSC properties of these donors (growth parameters, REL of 30 genes involved in proliferation, differentiation and immunomodulation) found no significant differences between the MSC, effective and ineffective for preventing aGVHD. However the analysis revealed that cumulative MSC production and CFU-F concentrations in bone marrow decreased with donor age. MSC populations revealed the hierarchy that changed during cultivation, resulting in an increase in the impact of mature cells and a decrease in the subpopulation of cells with high proliferation potential. The combination of predictors that characterize the most suitable for the prevention of aGVHD MSC samples was revealed by multiple logistic regression analysis. A model calculating the probability of the success of MSC samples application was proposed: logit(P)=0,75+10,897*FGFR1-4,272*PPARG-2,014*IGF1, where logit(P) = ln[P/(1-P)], P – probability of successful prophylaxis, FGFR1, PPARG and IGF1 – REL of corresponding genes in tested MSC sample. Chi-square goodness of fit test p= 0.0053. The calculated efficiency of this model was 94%. The following parameters of MSC were essential for the success of aGVHD prophylaxis: increased REL of FGFR1 combined with reduced REL of PPARG and IGF1 genes. Depending on the chosen value for probability of successful application of MSC, this model can correctly predict the outcome of the use of MSC in 82-94% of cases. Conclusions These data confirm the presence of hierarchy as well as heterogeneity in MSC population. The high variability of all analyzed characteristics among MSC from different donors was shown. The mathematical model revealed the combination of parameters enabling to distinguish effective and ineffective MSC samples. By means of the proposed model ineffective MSC samples could be discharged and replaced by effective MSC sample from the third part donor. Such strategy hopefully will prevent the development of aGVHD in the maximum number of patients. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.