To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Currency crisi.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Currency crisi'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'Currency crisi.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse dissertations / theses on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
BRAGOLI, DANIELA. "THREE ESSAYS ON OPEN ECONOMY MACROECONOMICS AND POLICY." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/624.
Full textAbstract:
La seguente tesi e’ costituita da tre diversi elaborati, il primo e’ l’estensione di un modello di equilibrio generale a due regioni (Benigno JIE 2004) con l’intento di calcolare i pesi ottimali per l’inflazione dell’area euro utilizzando micro dati sull’eterogeneità delle rigidità dei prezzi in Europa.
Il secondo e il terzo elaborato si focalizzano invece sulle crisi d’insolvenza con l’obiettivo di selezionare le variabili che forniscono maggiori informazioni per la previsione della crisi. La metodologia utilizzata e’ l’analisi della transvariazione. Mentre il secondo ‘essay’ si concentra sulla versione univariata, il terzo estende la metodologia al caso multivariato. Il primo analizza le crisi d’insolvenza più severe degli anni ’90, la seconda utilizza invece gli episodi di crisi analizzati da Frankel e Rose (1996).The present work is made of three different essays, the first is an extension of a two region general equilibrium model (Benigno JIE 2004), with the intent of calculating optimal weights for EU inflation using micro data on the level of price rigidities, the second and the third have as main focus financial and currency country crises, with the task of selecting the most important variables in terms of crisis prediction by means of a descriptive statistics methodology called transvariation analysis. While the second essay focuses on univariate transvariation, the third extends the methodology to a multivariate framework. The last two essays are based on two different datasets. The first studies the most recent deep financial crises of the 1990s and the source is IMF, International Financial Statistics, the second uses a vast sample of currency crisis episodes taken from Frankel and Rose (1996) dataset made of annual data on more than one hundred developed countries from 1971 through 1992 and defining currency crash as a large change of nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. The source in this case is World Bank, World Development Indicators.
2
Ndiritu, Gachiri Charles. "An Application of Multiple Regression in Exchange Rate Arrangements." Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2008. http://etd.uwc.ac.za/index.php?module=etd&action=viewtitle&id=gen8Srv25Nme4_1863_1263418792.
Full textAbstract:
This project "
An application of multiple regression in exchange rate arrangement"
focused on the processes followed by different countries when choosing an exchange rate regime for currency stabilization. It analyses the consequences faced by emerging markets as a result of changes in volatility of developed countries&rsquo
currencies (American Dollar, Japanese Yen, EURO, British Pound and the Canadian Dollar).
3
Seipone, Ruth Bonolo. "Leading indicators of currency crisis : an application to the 1996 South African currency crisis." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9599.
Full textAbstract:
Bibliography: leaves [73-77]Prior to the 1990 currency crisis theoretical and empirical studies concentrated on establishing the causes of currency crises. Models developed then focused mainly on finding out a fixed exchange rate policy combined with excessively expansionary pre-crisis fundamentals push the economy into crisis with the private sector trying to profit from inconsistent policies. The 1990 currency crises on government controlled exchange rate in Europe and Mexico led to the development of new models called the second generation models on which a crisis occurs when the economy suddenly jumps from one solution to the other resulting in multiple equilibria. In these models the main cause of this multiplicity is the interaction between the private sector and government behaviour. There is no policy inconsistency before the crisis but the crisis itself induces a policy change that make the crises self- fulfilling. Policy- makers and academics have therefore focused their attention on policy discussions that involve identifying indicators of currency crisis. The process involves setting up early warning systems by monitoring the behaviour of certain key indicators.
4
Seo, Jeonghee. "Determinants of currency crisis in Korea /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9974685.
Full text
5
Lebastard, Laura. "Three Essays on Currency Union and Trade." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017SACLS438/document.
Full textAbstract:
Cette thèse relève du commerce international, des politiques monétaires et de macroéconomie internationale. Le premier chapitre étudie les différentes caractéristiques des différents régimes de change fixe et évalue les effets de chacune de ces caractéristiques sur le commerce international. Il apparaît que la transparence des prix et les coûts de transaction liés au changement de monnaie n’ont pas d’effet significatif sur le commerce, seule la crédibilité du régime de change fixe (liée à l’absence de possibilité de dévaluation) augmente significativement le commerce. Cela explique pourquoi seule l’union monétaire augmente le commerce entre ses membres dès les premières années du régime de change. Le second chapitre s’intéresse aux effets de l’euro sur le commerce pendant la crise financière de 2008-2009. Il apparaît que l’euro amortit la chute du commerce observée partout dans le monde, grâce à l’absence de volatilité du taux de change entre ses membres. Le troisième chapitre présente un modèle théorique permettant d’étudier la transmission des chocs dans une économie spécialisée verticalement, et propose une politique monétaire optimale pour stabiliser l’économie. Le modèle promeut des politiques monétaires symétriques entre les deux pays partageant un mode de production basé sur les chaînes globales de valeurThis thesis studies international trade, monetary policy and international macroeconomics. Chapter 1 examines the different characteristics of different fixed exchange rate regimes and assesses the effects of each of these characteristics on international trade. It appears that price transparency and transaction costs linked to the currency changes do not have a significant effect on trade; only the credibility of the fixed exchange rate regime (due to the absence of devaluation possibilities) increases trade significantly. This explains why only monetary union increases trade between its members from the first years of the exchange rate regime. Chapter 2 looks at the effects of the euro on trade during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.It seems that the euro amortized the trade drop observed throughout the world, owing to the absence of exchange rate volatility among its members. Chapter 3 presents a theoretical model to study the transmission of shocks in a vertically specialized economy, and proposes an optimal monetary policy to stabilize the economy. The model promotes symmetrical monetary policies between the two countries sharing a production mode based on global value chains
6
Rydqvist, Johan. "FDI and Currency Crises : Currency crises and the inflow of FDI." Thesis, Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-71.
Full textAbstract:
The purpose of this thesis is to analyse if there are any changes in the inflow of Foreign Direct Investments before, during and after a currency crisis. The thesis is based on a theoretical framework and has an empirical part, which use a regression equation.
The theoretical framework presents a foundation of the incentives to mak FDI investments and the implications for a host country. Together with the possible link to the level of the real exchange rate in the host country, this thesis, based partly on previous paper written on the subject, presents a regression equation for an empirical analysis. The regression equation is based on a hypothesis about the changes in FDI inflow before, during and after the occurrence of a currency crisis in the host country.
The empirical analysis presents different results concerning the link between FDI and a currency crisis. The hypothesis stated in the thesis is that a currency crisis influences FDI inflows. This hypothesis is rejected. Moreover, a currency crisis can have both positive and negative effects on the inflow of FDI for the selected countries.
Results find further no similarities in regions or year of occurrence of the currency crises. The depth, length and structure of each currency crisis together with using the right definition of a currency crisis are two important factors relating to the outcomes in this study.
7
Larios-Martinez, Heriberto. "Financial and currency crises : contagion and welfare costs in emerging markets." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/1454.
Full textAbstract:
Crises in emerging markets during the 1990’s pose a challenge to understand why economies with apparently strong fundamentals did face severe devaluations and severe disruption in their functioning. We study three different aspects of crises: i) Contagion is defined as the possibility of a domestic financial or currency crisis to spread to other countries. We study the 1990’s crises and introduce a new measure for defining financial crises and isolating their impact on currency crises and vice versa; ii) During the 1990’emerging countries in crises suffered severe adjustments in the level of consumption. We build on Lucas’s measure of welfare loss and derive a more comprehensive measure that includes: total loss; loss related to changes in consumption growth rate; to volatility of consumption; and, to changes in the level of consumption; iii) Trying to explain the behaviour of consumption after crises in emerging markets during the 1990’s we found contradicting theoretical approaches and empirical results. We solve the model of intertemporal maximisation of consumption assuming that agents maximise over several periods at a time. We extend the intertemporal framework to include the decision of participating not only in the loanable funds market but in other financial assets and derive the solution for a stock market. The results imply an alternative to the specification of the Euler equation for consumption with more explanatory variables previously omitted.
8
Shibata, Miyuki. "Financial crisis in Thailand and the Philippines : an applied approach." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.246960.
Full text
9
Taguchi, Hiroyuki. "The East Asian currency crisis and exchange rate management /." Electronic version of summary Electronic version of examination, 2005. http://www.wul.waseda.ac.jp/gakui/gaiyo/3967.pdf.
Full text
10
Yong, Wai Sing. "The currency crisis & its effects on Malaysian society /." Title page, contents and preface only, 1999. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09AR/09ary55.pdf.
Full text
11
Mariánek, Lukáš. "Marketing in current financial crisis." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-9706.
Full textAbstract:
The paper is describing the effects of recessions and current financial crisis on companies and their marketing. The topic covers the history of marketing throughout the world biggest recessions and describes the current marketing efforts of Czech companies under the current financial crisis. A strategical analysis with the impacts of crisis on long-term strategy planning is provided at the end of the paper.
12
Galpin, Charlotte Amy. "Euro crisis - identity crisis? : the single currency and European identities in Germany, Ireland and Poland." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2015. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/5634/.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis examines the effect of the Euro crisis on the construction of European identities in three case study countries- Germany, Ireland and Poland. Combining a social constructivist approach to European identities with the constructivist and discursive institutionalist literature on ideational change and crisis, it investigates the extent to which the crisis constituted a 'critical juncture' for European identity discourses. Through extensive qualitative frame analysis of political and media discourse at key moments of the crisis, it examines how European identities are constructed through the debates about the crisis. The central argument is that the Euro crisis has had little effect on European identities because actors construct the crisis in their respective national contexts. In doing this, they draw on existing identities and ideas which then 'endogenises' the crisis into the existing national discourses. Where identity change is possible, it is subtle rather than a dramatic shift. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the EU has remained completely unified. Because the crisis generally serves to reinforce, rather than challenge, existing identities, attachments to national sovereignty and old national stereotypes have created or reinforced divisions particularly between northern and southern Europe and core and periphery.
13
Galpin, Charlotte. "Euro crisis - identity crisis? : the single currency and European identities in Germany, Ireland and Poland." Thesis, University of Bath, 2014. http://opus.bath.ac.uk/42493/.
Full text
14
Solomon, Raphael Haim Reuven. "Every bank run need not cause a currency crisis. models of twin crisis with imperfect information." The Ohio State University, 2003. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1054309457.
Full text
15
Stephanides, Phedeas. "Crisis as opportunity? : an ethnographic case-study of the post-capitalist possibilities of crisis community currency movements." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2017. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/64091/.
Full textAbstract:
A growing body of scholarship suggests that capitalism is not inevitable and that moments of crisis provide an opportunity for critique and social transformation. Yet literature on social movements employing direct-action tactics to unmake capitalism and challenge austerity is still lacking. It has neither adequately dealt with non-capitalist practices, nor has it substantiated claims of efficacy in social change. This thesis uses a novel research approach and presents new empirical evidence to deal with these shortcomings. It addresses the timely questions of whether and how these social movements support life despite-yet-beyond the recession. It thinks with, yet beyond, a practice-turn in social movement scholarship to break new ground for literature on non-capitalist practices, alternative economies and social movements. Specifically, the thesis provides a multi-sited ethnographic case-study of three Athenian crisis community currency movements. This informs the first study of community currencies dealing with the nitty-gritty of practicing the alternative economy. In so doing, it outlines what happens when emancipatory ideas of using alternative currencies to support everyday practices come into contact with the realities of modern-day Athens. It details a process of experimentation, learning-in-practice and contestation that both underlies and undermines the emergence of non-capitalist practices. This approach enables an enlightened response on whether – and how – living despite-yet-beyond austerity is possible. The findings suggest that community currencies are only partly successful in enabling non-capitalist practices. And yet, the research uncovers a side of Athens as a crucible of creative resistance that would otherwise go unnoticed. If this is accepted, the thesis concludes with a novel conceptual model and an agenda for future research on non-capitalism. This will play-out both to the benefit of scholarship and society alike, as it promises to conceptually advance the field and to further corroborate the non-capitalist imaginary – enhancing faith in alternatives to austerity and capitalism.
16
Rodriguez, Boetsch Leopoldo. "A political reading of neoliberalism and the Mexican peso crisis of 1994-1995." Digital version accessible at:, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/main.
Full text
17
Li, Kwan-leung, and 李君樑. "The European currency crisis: a replay of strains on bretton woods system." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1995. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31954522.
Full text
18
Li, Kwan-leung. "The European currency crisis : a replay of strains on bretton woods system /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1995. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B16027644.
Full text
19
Corinaldesi, Patrizio. "The Strategy of Italian micro-small business to face the current economic difficulties." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Ekonomihögskolan, ELNU, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-19609.
Full textAbstract:
The current economic-financial conditions in Italy are characterized by the financial crisis, decrease in demand, increase in taxation and banking credit restriction. Moreover, this aspects add up to structural problems of the Italian economy, like low level of labor productivity and high public debt. Italian industry is formed mainly by micro and small companies, that are suffering particularly this situation. This research wants to identify successful strategies for micro and small Italian companies to face actual difficulties and compete in these dynamics. To do that, the method chosen is the multiple-case and the qualitative research with semi-structured interviews to key respondents and strategic decision makers of three micro and small Italian companies. Starting from the literature review on strategic subjects, this paper wants to contribute to investigate a range of successful strategies that Italian micro-small companies could adopt to overcome current problems. The findings of this research are that part of the strategic process should be internal to companies, adopting a right size and boundaries, a good corporate culture, a rigorous financial management and a deep innovation’s process, both for process and products. Then, the more successful competitive strategy for Italian small company seems to be a hybrid strategy, mostly balanced on differentiation. Finally, a partial diversification by developing new products or/and new markets is a good strategy to diversify the high risk of the current situation and create new possibilities of success.
20
Vallejos, Pérez Bruno Antonio. "Crédito en moneda hard currency y carry trade." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2017. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/145966.
Full textAbstract:
Seminario para optar al Título Profesional de Ingeniero Comercial mención Ciencias Económicas.Posterior a la Crisis Sub-Prime, la literatura macro-financiera se ha enfocado en estudiar los efectos financieros existentes sobre las emisiones globales de bonos soberanos, especialmente aquellos provenientes de países con economías emergentes. En este trabajo, se parte de la evidencia inicial de un aumento de las emisiones en moneda “hard currency” en los años posteriores a la Crisis Sub-Prime, para luego dar paso a la construcción de una extensa base de datos que busca agrupar todas las variables necesarias para el estudio del crédito global de países de economías emergentes, junto con las múltiples aristas que el tema posee. Con la base de datos, el trabajo tiene como objeto contrastar la existencia de las emisiones globales (en moneda dura) sobre los “Cash Holdings” para una muestra de 20 economías emergentes. Los hallazgos de este trabajo sugieren que a los países que presentan economías emergentes tienen una mayor propensión a la emisión de bonos en el exterior. En particular, el origen del efectivo que mantienen proviene principalmente de fuentes de financiamiento de bonos, por sobre otras fuentes de financiamiento. Esta diferencia aumenta si las emisiones se realizan con moneda dura. Lo anterior se puede explicar por una propensión de los países en estudio a realizar Carry-Trade, junto con una presencia de control de capital de bonos en la muestra.
21
Valeš, Tomáš. "Finanční krize ve světě - detekce, průběh, příčiny a analýza aplikovaných řešení." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-15453.
Full textAbstract:
The main goal of this paper is to provide complete view about financial crises. Paper is di-vided into the six chapters whereas we explore the definition of crises, than history, causes, indicators and anti-crisis precautions. In last chapter we apply all theoretical observations to case study of Nordic banking crises from the beginning of the 90s in last century. We can't expect the crises to vanish completely because they are natural part of both finan-cial system and whole economy but for which they are extremely dangerous too and that's why the crisis, when it breaks out, must be at every moment managed and under control.
22
Kim, Jung Yeon. "Currency crisis contagion, capital flows, and sovereign ratings : empirical studies of emerging markets." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2001. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/3095/.
Full textAbstract:
Followed by the introduction, we begin the thesis by focusing on providing a quantitative indicator of the currency crisis contagion during the 1997-98 East Asian crisis. The severity of contagion is measured using a state-space model and a technical apparatus known as the Kalman filter. The results show that the contagion level is exceptionally high during the peak of the Asian crisis from June 1997 to January 1998. Further econometric tests were carried out to identify whether the crisis is transmitted to countries linked through trade or to countries characterized by macroeconomic similarities. The results indicate that the macroeconomic similarity dominates trade linkage as the major crisis transmission channel. Further, the high level of domestic claims which were financed by foreign capital inflows were shown to be the most significant factor in explaining crisis contagion in 1997-98. The next part of the thesis develops and implements a method for fore-casting capital flows to emerging markets. We provide capital flow forecasts to thirty-two developing countries using a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework based on the underlying fundamental factors driving capital flows. We also use our estimated models to carry out simulation exercises for the behaviour of capital flows under various economic scenarios. In the following part of thesis, using an unobserved components model and maximum likelihood Kalman filtering estimation, we separate out permanent and temporary components of capital flows. Based on these models, and using monthly data up to December 2000, forecasts of various capital flows are presented for the period January 2001 to December 2003. The results of the time series-based forecasts are then compared to those obtained using the fundamentals-based approach.
23
Wong, Ann Chai 1967. "Creating wealth in post currency crisis Asia : opportunities for financial services in Singapore." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/9190.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2000.Also available online on DSpace at MIT.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 139-141).
The Asian currency crisis revealed the structural weaknesses of the banking systems in Asia, following the devaluation of Thai Baht on 2 July 1997. With freedom of movement of capital, economies in Thailand, Indonesia and Korea were affected adversely by the liquidity squeeze when capital flowed out. Banks had to raise interest rates and nonperforming loans (NPLs) mounted, leading to severe stresses on banking systems. Post crisis, there were signs of limited recovery of the region in sight, but the region-wide reforms would take some time to complete. In the interim, Singapore could use the crisis to position the entire financial sector has to better respond to future challenges. The thesis would analyse the causes of the crisis as starting point to derive the directions the financial sector should take. Preserving the stability of the banking sector whilst engendering a more efficient use of capital remains a central issue in this thesis. The crisis has shown that an over-reliance on the debt capital model could lead to a systemic weakness in the economy, and this motivated the need to develop the financial market to ensure diversification. The thesis then evaluates the liberalisation measures adopted by the regulatory body (Monetary Authority of Singapore) in its bid to enhance the financial sector, and identifies some of the main opportunities and challenges ahead. Beyond leveraging on Singapore's time-tested regulatory, accounting and legal systems, financial institutions will need to take into account the impact of technology and financial innovation. Globalisation, electronic and online trading are potentially going to disrupt the traditional models of banking and exchanges. Consequently, both the banking and financial market industries need to respond to this new challenge, and the traditional advantages of geography were being eroded. To remain as a vibrant international financial market, banks and exchanges have to upgrade, creating new and more sophisticated value-added products and services through specialisation.
by Ann Chai Wong.
M.B.A.
24
Bakar, Nor'Aznin Abu. "Solvency and the currency crisis in Asia : evidence from the four Asian countries." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2000. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/842887/.
Full textAbstract:
The study deals with the Asian currency crises, in which the causes and consequences of the crisis are analysed. The two hypotheses which, are often viewed as competing, fundamental and panic and herd behaviour, are also examined. The first hypothesis states that fundamental imbalances triggered the Asian currency and financial crisis in 1997. The crisis occurred because the economies had deteriorating current accounts, a slowdown in growth rates and short-term debt approaching a dangerous level, while the second hypothesis states that sudden shifts in market expectations and confidence were the cause of the initial financial turmoil. When the crisis erupted it caused panic in domestic and foreign investors. A major focus of the study is to evaluate these two approaches and to examine whether there was evidence of insolvency prior to the crisis. A solvency index as originally popularised by Cohen (1991) is then calculated for each country. An econometric analysis of the trade sector is undertaken in which the Engle-Granger two-step procedure is employed, and the short-run dynamics are described by the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The Johansen Maximum Likelihood test is also employed as a comparison to the Engle-Granger Two-Step model. Subsequently the price elasticities obtained from the export demand model together with the GDP supply elasticity are used to calculate the index. From the results, it appeal's that all countries were solvent prior to the crisis in which the percentage of actual debt service paid (in 1997) was greater than the percentage that needs to be paid to be solvent. This suggests that a further external credit could have solved the problem, as it was a matter of short-term liquidity difficulties and panic, rather than insolvency.
25
Gros, Stéphane Sandretto René. "The 1996-1997 financial crisis in Bulgaria links between the banking and currency crises /." Lyon : Université Lumière Lyon 2, 2004. http://demeter.univ-lyon2.fr:8080/sdx/theses/lyon2/2004/gros_s.
Full textAbstract:
Reproduction de : Thèse de doctorat : Philosophy in economics : Lyon 2 : 2004. Reproduction de : Ph. D. : Philosophy in economics : University of Delaware : 2004.Titre provenant de l'écran-titre. Bibliogr.
26
Gros, Stéphane. "The 1996-1997 financial crisis in Bulgaria : links between the banking and currency crises." Lyon 2, 2004. http://theses.univ-lyon2.fr/documents/lyon2/2004/gros_s.
Full textAbstract:
Au printemps de 1996, la Bulgarie a traversé une crise financière très grave, combinant panique bancaire et spéculation contre la monnaie nationale, le Lev. La crise a culminé en février 1997, avec une courte période d'hyperinflation et une crise politique entraînant la chute du gouvernement. Cette thèse a pour objet d'expliquer la crise bulgare et d'examiner en particulier, les relations entre la crise bancaire et la crise monétaire. Quatre approches sont utilisées à cette fin : 1) une présentation des modèles théoriques de crises financières, et notamment des modèles dits de "crises jumelles" ; 2) une comparaison de la crise bulgare avec celle d'autres économies en transition ; 3) une chronologie détaillée des crises bancaire et monétaire en Bulgarie ; et 4) l'estimation d'un modèle unifié de substitution de devises et d'actifs, avant et pendant la crise. Les quatre approches produisent des conclusions similaires, et suggèrent la prééminence de la crise bancaire sur la crise de change. La crise bancaire aurait entraîné des dépenses fiscales très lourdes, un gonflement de la dette publique et la crainte de voir le gouvernement recourir à la planche à billets, comme dans les modèles "classiques" de crises financières. Il semblerait aussi que le niveau des réserves de change de la banque centrale ait joué un rôle prépondérant dans la formation des anticipations des ménages. L'analyse empirique présentée dans le dernier chapitre mesure l'impact des anticipations de change sur la substitution des devises et tente de quantifier l'effet des variations des réserves de change sur la composition des portefeuilles d'actifs.
27
Baran, Jaroslav. "Post-Crisis Valuation of Derivatives." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-203746.
Full textAbstract:
In this study we analyse relationship between classical approach to valuation of linear interest rate derivatives and post-crisis approach when the valuation better reflects credit and liquidity risk and economic costs of the transaction on top of the risk-free rate. We discuss the method of collateralization to diminish counterparty credit risk, its impact on derivatives pricing, and how overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates became market standard for discounting future derivatives' cash flows. We show that using one yield curve to both estimating the forward rates and discounting the expected future cash flows is no longer possible in arbitrage free market. We review in detail three fundamental interest rate derivatives (interest rate swap, basis swap and cross-currency swap) and we derive discount factors used for calculating the present value of expected future cash flows that are consistent with market quotes. We also investigate drivers behind basis spreads, in particular, credit and liquidity risk, and supply and demand forces, and show how they impact valuation of derivatives. We analyse Czech swap rates and propose an estimation of CZK OIS curve and approximate discount rates in case of cross-currency swaps. Finally, we discuss inflation markets and consistent valuation of inflation swaps.
28
Pedroso, Ludmila Giuli. "União Monetária Europeia: reações assimétricas à luz da crise do euro." Universidade Federal de Alagoas, 2015. http://www.repositorio.ufal.br/handle/riufal/1419.
Full textAbstract:
This paper summarizes the main Optimum Currency Area Theories (AMO), in order to use this branch of regional integration, to verify the configuration, in a cluster scenario, the euro area member countries during the period 2002-2013, from the perspective of macroeconomic imbalances factors, evidenced by the euro crisis, recent. Therefore, making use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis, and, factor analysis and cluster analysis were allowed to result in that during the period before the outbreak of the euro crisis had agreater concentration of countries in the first group, composed of countries more mature and more competitive economy. However, during the most turbulent crisis years, there is a greater amount of the groups formed by making the first less concentrated and dispersed in the composition of the other group. Only in the last two years of observation, 2012 and 2013, we find again a concentration of member countries in a group, then it is observed that in the years most critical crisis, show up macroeconomic disparities in the euro zone countries. Thus, the research contributes in order to verify, by means of multivariate analysis every year, over a period of time, and contrast with the reality that reaches the monetary union in Europe, to confirm that the disparities that existed before the outbreak of the crisis, and continue to exist between the members of the currency area. Confirming that the convergence criteria has not stopped economic disparities were reduced.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
O presente trabalho faz um resumo das principais Teorias de Área Monetária Ótima (AMO), de modo a utilizar este ramo de integração regional, para verificar a configuração, em um panorama de agrupamento, dos países-membros da área do euro, durante o período de 2002 a 2013, pela ótica de fatores de desequilíbrios macroeconômicos, evidenciado pela crise do euro, recente. Logo, fazendo uso de metodologias estatísticas de análise multivariada, mais precisamente, análise fatorial e análise de agrupamento, permitiu-se resultar em que durante o período anterior à eclosão da crise do euro havia uma maior concentração de países no primeiro grupo, composto por países de economia mais madura e mais competitiva. Entretanto, durante os anos mais turbulentos de crise, observa-se uma maior quantidade de grupos formados, tornando o primeiro grupo menos concentrado e disperso na composição dos demais. Apenas nos dois últimos anos observados, 2012 e 2013, verifica-se novamente uma concentração de países-membros em um grupo, logo se observa que nos anos mais críticos de crise, evidenciam-se as disparidades macroeconômicas dos países da zona do euro. Assim, a pesquisa contribui no sentido de verificar, por meio de análise ultivariada ano a ano, ao longo de um período de tempo, e contrastar com a realidade que atinge a união monetária na Europa, ao confirmar que as disparidades, que já existiam antes da eclosão da crise, e continuam a existir entre os integrantes da área monetária. Confirmando que os critérios de convergência não impediu que as disparidades econômicas fossem diminuídas.
29
Marques, João Filipe Francisco. "Terá a Política Monetária sido eficaz no combate à recente crise? Evidências dentro e fora da Zona Euro." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4548.
Full textAbstract:
Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraAtravés de uma análise às políticas monetárias dos países da União Europeia utilizadas durante a crise actual, verifica-se que durante os anos de 2008 a 2010 houve uma variação negativa do PIB bastante mais acentuada nos países pertencentes à Zona Euro que nos países não pertencentes à moeda única. Neste trabalho mostra-se ainda qual o peso que cada um dos instrumentos de política monetária teve, desde o começo da Zona Euro, na variação do PIB, tendo sido a taxa de câmbio aquele que revelou maior eficácia. Para a obtenção destes resultados foi feita uma estimação em dados de painel recorrendo a dados trimestrais de 1999 Q1 até 2010 Q4 dos 15 países da UE(15).
This paper analyses the monetary policies of the European Union member states emerged during the current crisis. It is confirmed that, between the years 2008 and 2010, there was a negative growth of GDP much stronger in the countries inside than outside the Euro Area. Using pooled panel OLS estimation, with quarterly data from Q1 1999 to Q4 2010 from all EU(15) countries this work also shows the weight that each monetary policy's instrument had on GDP variation, since the start of the Euro Zone, and where the exchange rate proved to be more effective.
30
Staněk, Daniel. "Měnové krize a jejich predikce v regionu střední a východní Evropy." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-76346.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis analyses possibilities of currency crises prediction in several countries of Central and Eastern Europe region. The thesis is structured into theoretical and practical part. Theoretical part generally describes currency crises, its importance and includes concrete cases of currency crises. There are also stated possibilities of currency crises prediction and usable indicators. Practical part of the thesis identifies currency crises among countries of the referenced region. Identification of currency crises is made on base of simple currency approach and also on base of Market Pressure Indices, more comprehensive method. Then risk of currency crises inception is analyzed according to method of International Monetary Fund and by using Signal approach. Last section of the practical part analyses influence of capital market on domestic currency and potential of capital market for currency crises prediction.
31
Payo, António Crespo Martins de San. "Como salvar o Euro? A atualidade das propostas de Keynes em Bretton Woods." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/14828.
Full textAbstract:
Mestrado em Economia Internacional e Estudos EuropeusNo início dos anos 40, Keynes formulou um esquema para uma união monetária (UM) internacional a adotar no pós-guerra. A prioridade máxima era desenvolver uma construção institucional capaz de ultrapassar aquilo que considerava ser uma incapacidade histórica de alcançar uma situação duradoura de equilíbrio económico mundial. Décadas mais tarde, surgiria outra construção institucional que alguns autores comparam à UM pensada por Keynes: a União Monetária e Económica da União Europeia (UEM). Apesar da sua elaborada arquitetura institucional, esta não conseguiu prevenir a acumulação de desequilíbrios macroeconómicos e a eclosão da chamada ?crise das dívidas soberanas?, cujas repercussões se estendem até aos dias que correm e podem constituir uma ameaça para a viabilidade do euro. Neste trabalho propomos analisar a estrutura da UM pensada por Keynes, bem como a estrutura e os problemas atuais da UEM, de modo a dar resposta às duas questões-chave seguintes: podem as ideias propostas por Keynes em Bretton Woods ajudar a uma redefinição do euro capaz de prevenir o seu colapso? E caso tal redefinição seja impossível, existe alguma alternativa ao projeto de moeda única que se aproxime da UM pensada por Keynes e que possa vir a ser aplicável no plano europeu?
In the early 1940s, Keynes started working on a plan for an international currency union (CU) to be adopted in the post-war world. His major priority was to develop an institutional construction that would allow overcoming what he considered to be a historical inability to achieve a sustainable situation of global economic equilibrium. A few decades later, another institutional construction would emerge: The Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union (EMU). Many authors have stressed the similarities between the EMU and Keynes's CU. Despite its complex institutional design, the EMU wasn't able to prevent the accumulation of severe macroeconomic disequilibria and the outbreak of the so called European sovereign debt crisis, whose effects are at present still a cause of concern. In this work, we analyse the structure of Keynes's CU, as well as the structure and current issues of the EMU, in order to provide an answer to the two following key questions: can the ideas underlying Keynes's proposal at the Bretton Woods Conference help redefine the euro in a way that would make it more resilient? If not, is there an alternative to the single currency project that comes into line with Keynes's CU and may be applicable at European level?
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
32
Chang, Alexander J. "Lessons China Can Learn from the East Asian Financial Crisis: A Comparative Study of the Pre-Crisis East Asian and Modern-Day Chinese Economies." Thesis, Boston College, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/584.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis advisor: Zhijie XiaoThis paper attempts to deliver a side-by-side examination of the similarities and differences between the economies of East Asia (Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea Republic, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines) and China. After the devastating 1997 Crisis, many investing eyes have turned to China as the next Asian growth engine. China has been opening its economy to foreign investors and its accession into the World Trade Organization will push for increased transparency and efficiency. The paper discusses the internal and external forces that drove the economies, with focused attention on its financial systems, using pre-crisis data. With foreign banks allowed entry into China by the end of 2006, its financial system will be an important component in economic longevity. Lastly, the question of whether or not China is vulnerable to a crisis is assessed based on the same factors that caused it in East Asia
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2006
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics Honors Program
Discipline: College Honors Program
33
Vobořil, Lukáš. "Kreativní destrukce v podmínkách české ekonomiky - případ hospodářské krize konce 90. let." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-197002.
Full textAbstract:
By using statistical methods and methods of macroeconomic analysis it has been proved that Schumpeter's theory of the creative destruction works not only as a theoretical model but it holds true even in real economics. With these methods it has been proved that during the currency and economic crisis in the 1997 and following the creative destruction was present in Czech economy and that it has changed the economy to be more effective and more productive than it was before which has helped to reach steeper growth rate afterwards. This means that the crisis through the creative destruction in fact has improved a condition of the whole Czech economy. Such an improvement has been also proved by an international comparison with the economy of the Slovak republic where the creative destruction didn't act so much due to an absence of economic crisis.
34
Dumoulin, Etienne. "The current financial crisis and its effects on the French economy." Thesis, Mid Sweden University, Department of Social Sciences, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-11348.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractIn this paper, we will be interested by the current financial crisis and how it did affect on the French economy. After setting the global French point of view and an overview of other crises, the discussion will be focused on the subprime crisis and how it turned into a worldwide financial crisis to reach the state of France. The data of the French statistic institute (INSEE) will be used as an analytic tool to show how France has been hit.To discuss this topic, we start from a chronology of the last crises to an overview of the French point of view in economy to correlate the current financial crisis to the French economy shrink. To set the subprime principles permit to explain the spread of the toxic mortgages in the worldwide finance and the collapse of economies. In more details, that explains the French economy collapse. The shrinking French economy started with the GDP and as a snowball effect, foreign trade, and companies followed. In the same time, the rise of unemployment and the change of the consumer behaviour can be notice. All of those are correlated with the current financial crisis.Going through this paper, we learnt that the subprime crisis is the cause of the current financial crisis. Indeed, the spread of the toxic loan into the whole financial market provided its collapse and finally reached to a fall of the world wide economy. In this study, we were focused on the effects of the current financial crisis on the French economy. This paper showed in the conclusion that the economy are recovering after a period of depression.
35
Correia, José Alexandre de Matos. "Comparison between the current crisis and the great depression of 1929." Master's thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/10606.
Full textAbstract:
Mestrado em EconomiaÉ evidente que a crise financeira atual se parece com a Grande Depressão. Esta dissertação providencia uma comparação entra ambas as crises. Ainda nesta dissertação vão ser explicados os eventos que inicialmente a deflagraram bem como a explicação de como é que uma economia, com a expansão incrível como a Americana, pode entrar em recessão em 1929, e sofrer agora dos mesmos problemas. A falta de restrições tanto antes como agora causaram um “boom” de crédito que afetou o mercado imobiliário e o mercado bolsista criando assim uma bolha. Por último esta tese compara as diferenças entre os políticos de outrora e os atuais, ficando uma pergunta por responder até hoje: Será que os políticos atuais aprenderam a lição dos seus antecessores?
It is a fact that the current world crisis resembles the Great Depression. This thesis provides a comparison between both crises. The events that originally deflagrated them will be explained, as well as how does an economy with an incredibly expansion such as the US’ can fall in to a recession in 1929, and suffers now from the same problems. The lack of restrictions then and now caused a credit boom that affected the real estate market, and the stock market creating a bubble. And finally this thesis will compare the differences between the policy makers of then and now, and will answer to the question that still remains today which is: How well did policy makers have learned their lesson from their ancestors past mistakes?
36
Markham-Cameron, Julia M. "The Political Will of the Bundesbank in the European Monetary Integration Process." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2013. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/scripps_theses/244.
Full textAbstract:
The German Central Bank, or Bundesbank, has since its founding in postwar West Germany been committed to the maintenance of a stable, conservative monetary policy to control the German economy. During moments key in the process of European integration, the bank has worked to delay and reframe the integration process in order to best benefit the German economy. This study examines four such moments, beginning with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and ending with the Greek bailouts of 2010, to examine the Bundesbank’s influence, both domestically and internationally, in determining the framework of the current European Union and its monetary policy.
37
Monasor, Jorro Jessica. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Current Crisis: how has it affected in Spain?" Thesis, KTH, Industriell arbetsvetenskap, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-34480.
Full textAbstract:
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is practice that is followed with the controversy of whether is a real management tool or rather is a fad. A good context in order to study this polemic is the current crisis that has affected worldwide, because if CSR practices are kept in this context means that it is not a fad. Spain is the country chosen for focused this report, due to it is one of European countries most affected by economic crisis. So, this thesis seeks to check which polemic part is right as well as observes CSR situation in Spanish companies so far. CSR situation of large companies and SMEs are the main points investigated, in order to do this, it uses a quantitative and qualitative methods. Firstly, using surveys it is examined large companies’ situation, more specifically IBEX 35 companies that are Spanish enterprises that list at the stock market. Secondly, SMEs situation is analyzed qualitatively using gatherings, interviews and the documentary that are conducted by a Spanish awareness camping called “El valor de ser grande”. Moreover, it is reviewed and analyzed the existing literature creating a theoretical framework built on the pillars of CSR. The research allowed us to obtain the main features about Spanish companies both large companies and SMEs regarding CSR. In large companies CSR is root and is perform for years to gain momentum over time, i.e., it is performed as fundamental element in the company. Instead, in SMEs CSR is beginning to gain further strength and is increasingly performed but it still has a long way to go. Therefore, it is said that CSR is in the second phase, the first one was in big companies and now it is up to SMEs. Moreover, it is confirm that the crisis has increased CSR value to society and business provoking a clean effect over bad CSR policies. In conclusion, this research proves that companies have increased CSR actions in the crisis context so far. Therefore CSR is not a fad, although this will not be final result until the crisis is over and then its final effect will be rechecked.
38
Terblanche, Michelle. "The future impact of the current electricity crisis on Sasol South Africa." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/18178.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2008.Towards the end of 2007, South Africa started experiencing widespread rolling electricity blackouts as the electricity demand exceeded the supply from energy giant Eskom. The crisis reached its tipping point when industries, including Sasol, were requested to reduce their electricity consumption by 10%. The purpose of this research was to identify alternative futures for Sasol in the light of the current electricity crisis. The scenario process was used to develop the following independent scenarios for Sasol: • Fuel to the fire. The country is amidst an ongoing nationwide electricity crisis and Sasol is still dependent on Eskom for more than 50% of its electricity demand. The end result is reduced turnover, shortage of liquid fuels and a decrease in Sasol’s contribution to the economy. • Ignorance is bliss. This is a world where Sasol is independent of Eskom for electricity supply despite the country’s continuing electricity crisis. Independence is ideal but unfortunately it comes at a cost. It is about taking painful action in the near term to forestall even more painful consequences in the future. • Blessing in disguise. Sasol is dependent on Eskom for the majority of its electricity requirement. The reliability of electricity supply in South Africa recovered and there is an overall awareness regarding energy efficiency and a positive adoption of alternative energy technologies. • Icing on the cake. Sasol is completely independent of Eskom and Eskom managed to restore the integrity of electricity supply. The end result, Sasol can continue with its planned growth and expansion. In order for the scenarios to be useful for Sasol, it is necessary to incorporate them into the strategic agenda. Some considerations include the gradual replacement of traditional fossil fuels, carbon capture and sequestration, advanced coal electricity generation (clean coal technology), increasing the use of renewable energy sources and developing the hydrogen economy.
39
Delella, José Mauro Cardoso. "Diferenças no desempenho econômico dos países durante e após a crise financeira de 2008-2009 fortalecem Bretton Woods 2?" Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/101/101131/tde-17072013-122025/.
Full textAbstract:
O sistema de Bretton Woods 2 propõe a existência, nos dias atuais, de uma dinâmica semelhante à vigente até 1971, na qual os EUA continuam como economia central e os países asiáticos passam a ocupar o papel de nova periferia, com estratégias de desenvolvimento baseadas na competitividade de seu setor exportador de modo a construir um estoque doméstico de capital capaz de competir nos mercados internacionais. O debate sobre esse sistema ganhou relevância durante a década de 2000, associado às discussões sobre os desequilíbrios globais, e se intensificou com a crise de 2008-09. As previsões feitas pelos críticos do arranjo de Bretton Woods 2, que anteviam um movimento de fuga dos ativos denominados em dólar e a desvalorização da moeda norte-americana, não se confirmaram. Ao contrário, nos momentos de maior aversão a risco, a demanda por títulos do Tesouro dos EUA cresceu significativamente. O desempenho econômico dos países alinhados ao sistema também foi aparentemente melhor do que a média global durante a crise, com menor desaceleração e retomada mais rápida, sendo a China frequentemente destacada como exemplo de sucesso econômico no período. Este estudo tem como proposta avaliar em que medida o desempenho econômico dos países alinhados ao sistema de Bretton Woods 2 realmente diferiu daquele dos não alinhados, durante e logo após a crise. Conjuntamente, o estudo investiga se o desempenho na crise teria servido como incentivo a outros países para um alinhamento ao modelo e conclui que, embora tenha havido ações pontuais nesse sentido, as políticas que caracterizariam uma adesão mais evidente ao sistema de Bretton Woods 2 são ações de difícil compatibilização em países democráticos, com contas de capital relativamente abertas e objetivos conflitantes de política econômica, particularmente em momentos de crise.The Bretton Woods 2 system proposes the existence, at the current time, of a system similar to that which was in force up until 1971, whereby the US remains as the central economy and the Asian countries assume the role of a new periphery, with development strategies based on their export sectors so as to build a domestic stock of capital capable of competing on the international markets. The debate over this system assumed greater importance during the 2000s, in connection with the discussions regarding global imbalances, and intensified during the financial crisis The predictions made by the critics of the Bretton Woods 2 system, who had foreseen that there would be a flight out of dollar denominated assets and a devaluation of the US currency, failed to come about. To the contrary, there was a marked increase in the demand for US treasury bills at times of increased risk aversion. The economic performance of those countries which were linked to the system was apparently better than the global average observed during the crisis, with less deceleration being registered along with faster recovery, with China frequently being pointed to as an example of economic success during this period. The aim of this study is to determine to what degree the economic performance of the countries aligned with the Bretton Woods 2 system really differed from that of countries which were not aligned, both during as well as shortly after the crisis. In addition the study examines whether the performance during the crisis encouraged other countries to align themselves with the model and concludes that, although there were specific actions in this sense, policies which would characterize a clearer compliance to the Bretton Woods 2 system would be hard to reconcile in democratic countries, with relatively open capital accounts and conflicting economic policy objectives, particularly in times of crisis.
40
Wang, Xiao Wei. "World financial crisis and RMB Internationalization : a false or real historical opportunity?" Thesis, University of Macau, 2012. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b2595547.
Full text
41
Kašpar, Jan. "Indikátory měnových a bankovních krizí." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-359564.
Full textAbstract:
This diploma thesis focuses on indicators of currency and banking crises and examines their reliability. The analysis is performed on real economic events - the monetary crisis analysiswill be related to the crisis in Russia in 1998 and in the banking crisis we will examine events in Ireland in 2008-2010. In case of both crises we will try to make a strict definition because the economic literature nor any law regulation do not offer any, whereas for time series analysis is the determination of the outbreak and the end of the crisis crucial. We also look at the change in the understanding of the financial crisis, from the concept of monetary, banking and debt crises typical for the end of the last century and gradually transitioning to a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis as a systemic crisis that represents the current direction of economic thought. The main objective is to analyze the reliability of currency crisis and banking crises indicators on the example of selected economic events. We will try to follow the development of indicators within a few years and look for the development trend, predicting the impending problems. There are also described some methodological problems concerning the research of indicators of financial crises. In the end we will have a comparison of both countries and emphasize what they have in common and what is different.
42
Blikstad, Nicholas Maguns Deleuse 1985. "O projeto de integração europeu e a crise da zona do euro (2007-2013)." [s.n.], 2015. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/286396.
Full textAbstract:
Orientador: Giuliano Contento de OliveiraDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T23:38:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Blikstad_NicholasMagunsDeleuse_M.pdf: 2418684 bytes, checksum: d8b98bbe49c4a2141d314bf67f99c71c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015
Resumo: Esta dissertação tem o objetivo de analisar a crise da zona do euro (2007-2013) à luz do processo de integração europeu do pós-guerra e da teoria econômica ortodoxa que embasou e legitimou a forma de constituição da zona do euro. Em relação ao processo de integração, o trabalho enfatiza cinco fatores: 1) mudança das motivações; 2) consolidação da liderança alemã; 3) como as diversas etapas de integração impactaram na coordenação de políticas econômicas; 4) inserção do bloco no sistema monetário e financeiro internacional em cada período; e 5) constituição de um bloco com países heterogêneos. Argumenta-se que a evolução do processo de integração, resultando na constituição de uma união monetária, em 1999, ocorreu sob influência da teoria econômica ortodoxa, com o Novo Consenso Macroeconômico e a Hipótese dos Mercados Eficientes, além dos efeitos dessas teorias para as modificações da teoria das Áreas Monetárias Ótimas. Nesse sentido, sustenta-se que a institucionalidade da zona do euro, em um contexto de livre movimentação de capitais, resultou em problemas estruturais que permitiram: 1) a evolução dos desequilíbrios internos ao bloco, no período de expansão econômica (2000-2007), entre centro e periferia (PIIGS); 2) o aprofundamento e transformação da crise, a partir de 2010, com a crise dos títulos soberanos dos PIIGS; e 3) o prolongamento da crise, devido às recomendações realizadas pelas autoridades europeias. Defende-se, assim, que a crise da zona do euro é o resultado dessa dinâmica e que os países centrais possuem um papel essencial para sua determinação. Dessa forma, as causas da crise da zona do euro devem ser buscadas nos problemas estruturais do bloco, com a evolução de suas assimetrias internas e das dificuldades que a institucionalidade do euro impôs para a adoção de políticas econômicas autônomas, especialmente de caráter anticíclico. Para isso, será utilizado o referencial teórico keynesiano e pós-keynesiano, evidenciando a importância da incerteza, das expectativas e do comportamento dos bancos nesse processo
Abstract: This paper seeks to analyze the eurozone crisis (2007-2013) in the light of the European integration process and orthodox economic theory that contributed to legitimate the form of the constitution of the euro area. Regarding the integration process, the paper emphasizes five factors: 1) change in the motivations; 2) consolidation of the German leadership; 3) how the different integration steps impacted in the coordination of the economic policies; 4) insertion of the region in the international monetary and financial system in each period; and 5) establishment of a monetary union with heterogeneous countries. It is argued that the evolution of the integration process, resulting in the formation of a monetary union in 1999, occurred under the influence of orthodox economic theory, with the New Consensus Macroeconomic and the Efficient Market Hypothesis, in addition of the effects of these theories to the modifications of the theory of Optimal Currency Area. In this sense, the overall goal of the dissertation is to show that the institutions of the euro area, in a context of free movement of capital, resulted in structural problems that allowed: 1) development of internal imbalances, between center and periphery (PIIGS), in the economic expansion period (2000-2007); 2) deepening and transformation of the crisis, from 2010, with the crisis of sovereign bonds in the PIIGS; and 3) prolonging the crisis, due to recommendations made by the European authorities. It is argued, therefore, that the eurozone crisis is the result of this dynamic and those central countries has a key role in its determination. In this sense, the causes of the eurozone crisis must be sought in the structural problems of the monetary union, in the performance of its internal imbalances and the difficulties that the institutions of the euro imposed for the adoption of autonomous economic policies, especially countercyclical ones. For this, a theoretical framework of Keynesian and post-Keynesian nature will be used, highlighting the importance of uncertainty and bank behavior
Mestrado
Teoria Economica
Mestre em Ciências Econômicas
43
Bandala, Jesus G. Munoz. "Domestic financial & corporate vulnerability to currency crises in emerging markets : an analysis of Mexico after the 1994 crisis." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.420548.
Full text
44
Hotson, Anthony. "Respectable banking : the search for stability in London's money and credit markets since the great currency crisis of 1695." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:146ce3e5-eed1-4f26-9b4c-9e6a2cbe619a.
Full textAbstract:
The history of London's money and credit markets is one of intermittent crises interspersed with successive attempts to find ways and means of stabilizing the system. The currency reforms of the eighteenth century, and the banking ones of the nineteenth, culminated in a century of stability which lasted until 1971. Recent scholarship has emphasized the importance of the Bank of England's role as lender of last resort, and its modern extension, deposit insurance. Less heed has been paid to various market practices introduced in the late nineteenth century that had the effect of restricting competition. These practices included curbs on liability management and rediscounting, prohibitions against speculative lending, liquidity requirements, and limits on maturity mismatching. In the 1930s, the building societies broke most of these rules, combining liability management with maturity mismatching, and the resultant housing boom could have led to a bust, but for the war. Cartel control of the mortgage lending rate after the Second World War helped to limit liability management, and provided a mechanism for managing liquidity in a sector that faced considerable maturity mismatching. A tendency to downplay the importance of these restrictions has encouraged a degree of complacency about their removal, and the deregulation that started in 1971 created a banking model that disregarded these principles of sound banking. The events of 2007-8 suggest a reappraisal is needed, and this study offers a revised interpretation of developments in the London market since the great currency crisis of 1695. Currency stability was achieved in the eighteenth century by keeping the price of gold aligned with the nominal value of guineas. In the late nineteenth century, banking practices likewise sought to stabilize the prices of assets used to support paper money. This culminated in the clearing bank model of the 1890s and the building societies model of the 1950s, both of which lasted until the onset of deregulation in the 1970s and 1980s.
45
Majluf, Natalia. "De cómo reemplazar a un rey: retrato, visualidad y poder en la crisis de la independencia (1808-1830)." Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2013. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/121840.
Full textAbstract:
This essay proposes to explore the visual expressions of political power during the crisis of independence, in the transition from the colonial monarchical system toward the constitution of the new South American republics. We shall take as our point of departure the depersonalization of power which accompanied the fall of the king and explore the different materializations of the modernnation-state and the uncertain place which heroes’ portrait occupied in the new republican symbolic cosmos.Este ensayo explora las formas visuales del poder político en la crisis de la independencia, en el tránsito que marca el paso del sistema monárquico colonial a la constitución de las nuevas repúblicas sudamericanas. Tomando como punto de partida la despersonificación del poder que se impone a partir de la caída del rey, se exploran aquí las diversas materializaciones del moderno Estado-nación y el incierto lugar que el retrato de los héroes tendrá en el nuevo marco simbólico republicano.
46
Gallo, Lassere Davide. "Argent et capitalisme : de Marx aux monnaies du commun." Thesis, Paris 10, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA100130.
Full textAbstract:
Les analyses développées dans cette thèse de doctorat visent à mettre en évidence le rôle éminemment politique de la monnaie. À la différence de ce que soutient la doxa néoclassique, la monnaie n'est pas neutre du point de vue économico-politique. Elle matérialise des rapports de force qui traversent toute la société et qui s’avèrent riches d’implications variées.La recherche se divise en trois parties : « Argent et capitalisme », « Argent et néocapitalisme », « Argent et postcapitalisme ». Elles sont précédées par une préface, dans laquelle j’expose ma démarche épistémologique, et par une introduction ontologique, dans laquelle je me place du point de vue de la projectualité sociétale de subjectivités qui luttent pour réinventer l’argent en fonction de leurs besoins et de leurs exigences. La première partie de la thèse, à travers une analyse croisée de l’oeuvre de Marx, de Simmel et de Keynes, se focalise sur les caractéristiques principales de la monnaie capitaliste : outil de domination, facteur de mobilisation des passions et vecteur de transformation sociale. La deuxième partie explore les aspects cruciaux de la crise néocapitaliste : le redéploiement global du régime d’accumulation, la financiarisation de la vie quotidienne et l’institution de l’euro. La troisième partie, après avoir envisagé les conditions d’une transition postcapitaliste, examine deux pratiques susceptibles de déclencher des processus nouveaux de subjectivation politique : les revendications d’un revenu social garanti et les expérimentations de circuits monétaires complémentaires. Les conclusions sociopolitiques esquissent enfin quelques pistes qui visent à articuler une théorie générale des monnaies du communThe analyses developed in my doctoral dissertation intend to stress the eminently political function played by money. Unlike neoclassic economic theory, I argue that currency is not neutral in economic and political terms. It materializes the power relationships that influence society, producing effects of different nature. The research consists of three parts: “Money and capitalism”, “Money and neocapitalism”, “Money and postcapitalism”. They are introduced by a preface in which I present my epistemological approach and by an ontological introduction, in which I focus on the social projects of the subjectivities who struggle to reinvent money adapting it to their needs. The first part of the dissertation, through a reading of the works of Marx, Simmel and Keynes, focuses on the main features of capitalist money: a tool for domination, a mobiliser of passions and a vector of social transformation. The second part explores some key elements of the crisis of neocapitalism: the global redeployment of the regime of accumulation, financialization of everyday life and the institution of euro. The third part, after an evaluation of the conditions of postcapitalistic transition, examines two practices capable to trigger original processes of political subjectivation: claims for a guaranteed social income and experimenting complementary monetary circuits. Finally, in the socio-political conclusions I delineate some paths in order to articulate a general theory of the common’s coins
47
Yang, Chih-Lin, and 楊之琳. "The Warning System of Currency Crisis—Importance of Current Account and Financial Account." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/60525568258430173297.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立臺灣大學
財務金融組
99
This Paper tries to construct a warning system which can predict the currency crisis. The main variables are Current Account and Financial Account. We use 2 kinds of method to measure the current account: CA/GDP and CA Threshold and one method to measure financial account: FA/GDP, FDI/GDP, FPI/GDP and FOI/GDP. From the empirical results, we found that among the macro-economic variables, the inflation rate、foreign exchange/GDP performs better than real GDP growth rate with significant results, while real GDP growth rate can’t explain the currency crisis significantly. The empirical results of inflation rate、foreign exchange/GDP is consistent with out hypothesis while DC/GDP is opposite with our hypothesis. When we added CA/GDP and CA Threshold into the model, both of them has the significant results. The lower the CA/GDP, the higher the probability of currency crisis. FDI/GDP, FOI/GDP is consistent with our hypothesis but the results are not significant. When we take the CA*FA into consideration, CA*FA is significant (10% significance level)negative related with the currency crisis. It shows that when CA/GDP<-4% and FA/GDP <-4%, the probability of currency crisis increases.
48
Chiang, Hui-chi, and 詹蕙綺. "ARE CURRENCY CRISIS SELF-FULFILLING?" Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98140587864299928330.
Full textAbstract:
碩士南華大學
財務金融學系財務管理碩士班
96
In 1997, the Asia currency crisis spread out from Thailand. Most Asia countries’ currencies devalued. This study uses the Markov-switching model to investigate if the Asia currency crisis was self-fulfilling or came from their weak fundamentals. The Asia currency crisis are popularly studied recently; however, using the Markov-switching model to estimate the self-fulfilling phenomenon is rare. This study attempts to fill the void. So, We choose the Asia currency crisis to be our sample. In this study, we show that the crisis can not only be explained by the macroeconomics, and in particular Thailand, Philippine and South korea were proven to be self-fulfilling in 1997, we also show that the Markov-switching model is the better model than linear model.
49
McIntosh, Bryan, and F. Ferretti. "Pandora box: The eurozone and the euro crisis." 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/9915.
Full textAbstract:
YesThe global economy has experienced considerable turbulence since 2007. The financial crisis has been viewed as the trigger for a prolonged period of economic decline. This decline remains an issue for all member states of the European Union, the eurozone and beyond. We argue genesis of this crisis lies in the integration negotiations of 1991, ratified in 1992. These produced a flawed economic model within the eurozone. Given the seeds of decay were planted at origin; we argue the solution can be found through a reconstructed eurozone via looser integration, where countries less equipped to deal with the realities of closer integration will be economically independent.
50
Kim, Seungwon. "What caused the Asian currency crisis?" 2000. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/49389688.html.
Full text