Academic literature on the topic 'Currency portfolio'

AbstractWe test the relevance of technical and fundamental variables in forming currency portfolios. Carry, momentum, and value reversal all contribute to portfolio performance, whereas the real exchange rate and the current account do not. The resulting optimal portfolio produces out-of-sample returns that are not explained by risk and are valuable to diversified investors holding stocks and bonds. Exposure to currencies increases the Sharpe ratio of diversified portfolios by 0.5 on average, while reducing crash risk. We argue that besides risk, currency returns reflect the scarcity of speculative capital.

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the efficiency of different hedging strategies for an investor holding a portfolio of foreign currency bonds. Design/methodology/approach The simplest strategies of no hedge and fully hedged are compared with the more sophisticated strategies of the ordinary least squares (OLS) approach and the optimal hedge ratios found by the dynamic conditional correlation-generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity approach. Findings The sophisticated hedging strategies are found to be superior to the simple strategies because they lower the portfolio risk in domestic currency terms and improve the Sharpe ratios for multi-asset portfolios. The analyses also show that both the OLS and dynamic hedging strategies imply holding a limited carry position by being long in high-yielding currencies but short in low-yielding currencies. Originality/value The performance of multi-currency portfolios is examined using more realistic assumptions than in the previous literature, including a weekly frequency and a constraint of no short selling. Furthermore, carry trades are shown to be part of an optimal portfolio.

The paper uses Coskewness as risk measure, average return and gives detail of efficient skewness (gamma) of a diversity of currency portfolios. This paper also applies ARCH-GARCH model, significant properties of GARCH allow to efficient modeling financial time series having obese conclusions. Then, we connect Coskewness with ARCH-GARCH models to optimize currency portfolio. To conclude, an empirical study of ten currency portfolios from Pakistan currency exchange market is performed and all the results suggest that Coskewness can better characterized the risk-adjustment and average variance and the performance of ARCH-GARCH model is better than that of ARIMA model in portfolio optimization.

In this paper, we examine the role of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa’s (BRICS) currency in energy market by using vine copula method. The value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall of two portfolios are calculated. One is a benchmark portfolio which is consisted of only energy prices, the other is a portfolio which adding the BRICS’s exchange rate into the benchmark portfolio. The data period is from 24 August 2010 to 29 November 2019. Our results show the BRICS’s currency can reduce the risk in energy investment.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the ability of the Islamic gold dinar to hedge against two well-established foreign exchange (FX) risk factors namely, the dollar risk factor and global FX volatility innovations. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a combination of the Markowitz (1952) portfolio optimization, visual data representations and the classic Fama-Macbeth (1973) two-pass procedure regressions. Findings The findings show that the Islamic gold dinar can serve as a hedge against market volatility, outperforms a diversified currency portfolio, and through its inclusions into the diversified currency portfolio, improve said portfolio’s ability to hedge against market volatility. Research limitations/implications Due to the spread of the sample, country-specific factors could not be taken into account. Practical implications The Islamic gold dinar is a cost-efficient, cost-effective, and Shariah-compliant instrument that provides a solid hedge for investors and/or firms that have financial positions denominated in foreign currencies. Should these investors or firms find it costly to maintain a dinar-only portfolio, including the dinar into their currency portfolios also provides the same benefit, albeit at a lower magnitude. Originality/value This study is timely as the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions has recently for the first time recognized gold as a Shariah-compliant investment. The findings of this study provide the first look as to how investors and firms can benefit through the use of the Islamic gold dinar in their risk management practices.

The De Kock Commission has recommended that exchange control regulations be relaxed so that South African investors may acquire foreign securities. The possible gains accruing to South African investors from international share portfolios representing 18 different countries for the period 1969-1983 were investigated. The inclusion of foreign securities results in superior portfolio returns when compared with returns derived from exclusive investment in South African securities. Furthermore, the South African investor accomplishes significant risk reduction when several foreign countries are included in international portfolios. The returns on South African goldmining shares are negatively correlated with most foreign shares. Therefore, goldmining shares feature prominently in optimal portfolios available to South African investors. By contrast local industrial shares are not included in any of the efficient frontiers. Although the currency factor is important, it was not a major element in the performance and risk components of international portfolios during the study period. The currency factor also constitutes a small percentage of the total risk of an unweighted portfolio representing the 18 selected countries. The importance of the currency factor is minimized due to low and possibly even negative correlations between share prices and exchange rate movements in the different countries.

Virtual currency represents a specific technological innovation on financial markets. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are popular alternatives to traditional cash and investment. We indicate a research gap in the literature review. We find out that current research focused rarely on portfolio diversification using bibliographic analysis in VOSviewer. We think that portfolio diversification is extremely important on the crypto market for most investors because virtual currencies are very risky compared to traditional assets. The primary aim is to construct an optimal portfolio consisting of several cryptocurrencies without traditional assets using a modern theory portfolio. The total sample consists of 16 virtual currencies from 1 October 2017 to 13 January 2020. We mainly obtain historical data on the daily close price of cryptocurrencies from Yahoo Finance. The results show that the optimal portfolio using Markowitz approach consists of Cardano, Binance Coin, and Bitcoin. In addition, virtual currencies are moderately Correlated, with the exception of Tether based on correlation analysis. The high correlation is dangerous for cryptocurrency in portfolio diversification. However, Tether is an atypical virtual currency compared to other cryptocurrencies.

This thesis examines the performance of currency-only portfolios with different strategies, in out-of-sample analysis. I first examine a number of passive portfolio strategies into currency market in out-of-sample analysis. The strategies I applied in this chapter include sample-based mean-variance portfolio and its extension, minimum variance portfolio, and equally-weighted risk contribution model. Moreover, I consider GDP portfolio and Trade portfolio as market value portfolio for currency market. With naïve portfolio, there are 12 different asset allocation models. In my out-of-sample analysis, naïve portfolio performs reasonably well among all 12 portfolios, and transaction cost does not seriously affect the results prior to transaction cost analysis. The results are robust across different estimation windows and perspectives of investors from different countries. Next, more portfolio strategies are examined to compare with naïve portfolio in currency market. The first portfolio strategy called ‘optimal constrained portfolio’ in this chapter is derived from the idea of maximising the quadratic utility function. In addition, the timing strategies, a set of simple active portfolio strategies, are also considered. In my out-of-sample analysis with rolling sample approach, naïve portfolio can be beaten by all the strategies discussed in this chapter. In chapter six, the characteristics of currency are exploited to construct a currency only portfolio. Firstly, the pre-sample test proves that the characteristics, both fundamental and financial, are relevant to the portfolio construction. I then examine the performance of parametric portfolio policies. The results show that while fundamental characteristics can bring investor benefits of active portfolio management, financial characteristics cannot. Moreover, I find the relationship between characteristics of currency and weights of optimal portfolio. The overall results show that currencies can be thought of as an asset in their own right to construct optimal portfolios, which have better performance than naïve portfolio, if suitable strategies are used. In addition, ‘lesser’ currencies, indeed, bring significant benefits to the investors.

This paper will show the effect of cryptocurrencies, specifically Bitcoin and Litecoin, on a diversified portfolio of traditional and alternative assets. By using weekly closing price of these data, I use a single-index model to find betas, Sharpe ratios, and asset correlations. Then using the Markowitz Portfolio Optimization model to find optimal weights both with and without percentage restrictions. To date there is little academic research into cryptocurrency portfolio management. This paper expands upon a similar study done in the summer of 20131 through the Université Libre de Bruxelles. However, their data was from before a major spike in Bitcoin demand in November that same year, and did not include Litecoin. This paper fills the gap.

Fluctuation of exchange rate has affected the increasing burden of foreign debt payment in emerging economies. This issue has negatively influenced the economic growth. It has been a severe obstacle considering that governments have to issue public debt denominated in foreign currency to finance the budget deficit. Hence, there is an urgent necessity to implement an efficient public debt management to minimize the exchange rate exposure. This thesis analyses how efficient the foreign debt portfolio management is in the 14 emerging economies under examination in the period of 1990-2013. Panel Dynamic Fixed-effect Estimator and Granger Causality approach are applied to analyze how responsive the currency composition of foreign debt portfolio to the exchange rates movement. The thesis examines the four biggest foreign debt shares that are denominated in US dollar, Euro, British pound, and Japanese yen, and the related exchange rates movement in the economies under consideration. The observation concludes that the foreign debt portfolio management in these emerging economies is not efficient or not optimal. The evidences prove that changes in the exchange rates of Euro, British pound, and Japanese yen relative to US dollar Granger cause changes in respected debt shares. It means that there is no substitution effects from the appreciation of the currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar during the year of observation.

Doctoral thesis deals with the method of the currency portfolio creation focused on short-term trading, which not exceed one business day. That is the reason why is necessary to increase the profitability of investment positions by using financial leverage. Development of proposed investment strategies is realized with use of computer technology in combination with software that allows direct access to the foreign exchange market. The software enables direct access to a database of historical prices and has an implemented a programming language that allows effective processing of statistical analyzes, which is required for development of investment strategies. The investment strategies are optimized and tested on a database of historical price movements from 1. 1. 2004 to 31. 12. 2012 for the major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. The main assumption of entry to the market for proposed investment strategies is based on specific time intervals during the day, where is an increased probability of new short-term trends beginnings. The doctoral thesis statistically validated this assumption. The proposed method of creation a currency portfolio was applied to real market since 1. 1. 2013 to 30. 9. 2013 and was used for 20 000 $ trading account. Profitability of proposed method of creation a currency portfolio is 26,89%.

This thesis consists of four essays on topics relating to the fields of international portfolio choice, trading behavior, and asset pricing. "Direct Foreign Ownership, Institutional Investors, and Firm Characteristics" analyzes portfolios of Swedish stocks held by foreign investors. The analysis reveals that foreigners tilt their portfolios to firms with certain attributes. It is also shown that the seemingly specific preferences of foreign investors are driven by the fact that they are large institutional investors, and are not linked to their national origin. "Foreigners' Trades in Risky Assets: An assessment of  Investment Behavior and Performance" analyzes foreigners' trading activities. It is shown that foreigners trade more than domestic investors. Further, they trade as non-informed trend followers in that they buy stocks that have recently done well. Nonetheless, after the liberalization of Sweden's stock market, foreigners' purchases have led to a permanent price increase and to a reduction in the cost of equity capital. "Exchange Rate Exposure, Risk Premia, and Firm Characteristics" shows that about fifty percent of Swedish listed firms are affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The sign and magnitude of exchange rate exposure are characterized across industries as well as firm attributes. The empirical analysis suggests that exposure can be eliminated through diversification, and that exchange rate risk is not priced. "Conditioning Information in Tactical Asset Allocation" examines whether investors can exploit the predictability in time-varying expected returns on Swedish stocks and bonds. It is shown that dynamic allocation strategies, based on conditioning information, significantly outperform several benchmark portfolios. This superior performance is not only statistically significant, it is economically large.
Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

This study aims to investigate currency substitution and financial dollarization in Turkey. The extend of dollarization in Turkey appears to be very high according to both the conventional currency substitution and the recently developed financial dollarization measures. This has serious policy implications as a source of financial fragility through currency/maturity mismatches and balance sheet effects. The empirical part of this study contained an investigation of the long run relationships between the variables in a system containing currency substitution ratio, expected exchange rate change and rates of return on domestic and foreign currency denominated assets. The results of the Johansen cointegration analysis based on quarterly data for the 1987-2004 period appeared not to be strongly supporting the General Portfolio Balance Model (GPBM). The theoretical part of this study suggests that the GPBM can be reduced to the Sequential Portfolio Balance Model (SPBM) under the uncovered interest parity (UIP) hypothesis. Consequently, the GPBM may be misleading under UIP. The Johansen cointegration results suggested the validity of the UIP for the Turkish data. The estimation of the SPBM suggested that there is a long-run relationship between currency substitution and expected exchange rate change in Turkey. The elasticity of currency substitution appeared to be high but consistent with those estimated for other high inflation developing countries. The results further supported the presence of a ratchet/hysteresis effect proxied by a trend variable. All these results are consistent with the argument that currency substitution and financial dollarization are important especially in high inflation countries.

Due to globalization investors have increasing opportunities to invest on international markets for diversification purposes. This thesis illustrates the added risks of investing internationally due to volatile exchange rates. The purpose is to analyze how a volatile

exchange rate affect the risk and return of a portfolio invested in Sweden, when the investor is located in Japan, United Kingdom or the USA.

To analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility the focus is on a portfolio consisting of Swedish stocks from the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE) O-list. First the risk and return to a hypothetical Swedish investor not exposed to exchange rate volatility is calculated.

Then the effects the exchange rates had on the risk and return if a US investor, UK investor and a Japanese investor invested in the same portfolio is analyzed. For the historical period 2005 the portfolio generated a return of 34.36% and a risk of 7.7%. The empirical work showed that for the international investors the risk was increased

with between 1.95% – 410.52% and that the actual return decreased due to weakening currencies against the Krona.

In an attempt to predict future exchange rate movements the thesis analyses two financial relationships, PPP and IRP, to calculate equilibrium movements. Both PPP and IRP predicted a depreciation of the Dollar and Pound Sterling against the Krona over the next

period, but an appreciation of the Yen against the Krona over the same period.

The analytical discussion covers the importance of a well functioning financial system, the institutional effects on exchange rates and the confidence in government policies and their ability to succeed in doing what has been promised.

Portfolio selection is an important yet challenging task in AI for FinTech. One of the key issues is how to represent the non-stationary price series of assets in a portfolio, which is important for portfolio decisions. The existing methods, however, fall short of capturing: 1) the complicated sequential patterns for asset price series and 2) the price correlations among multiple assets. In this paper, under a deep reinforcement learning paradigm for portfolio selection, we propose a novel Relation-aware Transformer (RAT) to handle these aspects. Specifically, being equipped with our newly developed attention modules, RAT is structurally innovated to capture both sequential patterns and asset correlations for portfolio selection. Based on the extracted sequential features, RAT is able to make profitable portfolio decisions regarding each asset via a newly devised leverage operation. Extensive experiments on real-world crypto-currency and stock datasets verify the state-of-the-art performance of RAT.

This article aims to analyze whether investing in international assets, and fluctuations in their own currencies, allow the possibility of structuring diversified investment portfolios that would not only maximize the expected return, but also minimize risk. For this,it is evaluated the impact of currency risk on the profitability of investment portfolios in the stock indexes in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru from the point of view 6 investors (one American and five located in each of these countries) during the period 2002–2014.

The main objective of the paper is to present the solution to the problem of possibilities’ reliability management, which is an important problem of uncertainty (risk) economics. Also, the paper aims to propose adequate methods of stochastic optimization and reveal their broad implementation possibilities. Along with that, the concept of utility function is being disclosed, when we take into account not only the possibilities of prices and costs, but also their reliability, in order to achieve the highest value added in this process. The original methods of stochastic optimization are used, while searching for the optimal allocation of invested capital among the investment assets. Adequate investment portfolio is treated as theoretically sound and practically effective instrument for investment decision-making in capital and currency markets, as well as for other problems related with optimal resource allocation. The adequate portfolio supplements the modern portfolio by adding the third portfolio parameter – the reliability of return. Also, the utility function based on return, reliability and risk is used to find the optimal investment possibility for particular investor. The formed portfolio solutions were tested in the markets of NYSE, UK and France.

International funds flow freely across the countries both quantitatively and legally as a result of financial liberalization carried out by globalization process and huge amount of money flows into the countries in liberal system. Particularly for developing countries, these fund flows refer as hot money are mentioned frequently with respect of positive and negative signs. High export performance of the Netherlands as a result of discovering large natural gas reserve leads to increase rapidly its own currency. In 1959 when economic indicators getting worse, the reason of crisis appears as decreasing export in consequence of over-valued currency leads to decrease the industrial production. This paradoxical situation is named as “Dutch Disease” in economics literature. The purpose of this study is examining the effect of hot money inflow on the manufacturing sector of Turkey and testing Dutch disease for Turkish economy. In this paper, the monthly data 2006:01-2013:12 from Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is used. Test results of causality tests that Toda-Yamamoto method (1995) and Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap method approve that there is no causality between portfolio investment and manufacturing industrial production index and also export. The results confirm that portfolio investments do not lead to Dutch disease for Turkey.

Repository based applications for portfolio design offer the potential for leveraging archived design data with computational searches. Toward the development of such search tools, we present a representation for product portfolios that is an extension of an existing Group Technology (GT) coding scheme. Relevance to portfolio design is treated with a case study example of a hand held grinder design. Results of this work provide a numerical coding representation that captures function, form, material and manufacturing data for systems. This extends the current GT line work by combining these four types of design data and clarifying the use of the functional basis in a GT code. The results serve as a useful starting point for the development of portfolio design algorithms, such as genetic algorithms, that account for this combination of design information.

In 2001, after the preparation of legal infrastructure in Turkey, private pension fund system started to be complementary to the Social Security system. There are many expectations from the private pension fund system both socially and economically. Social expectation is to direct individuals to alternative investment instruments to provide additional income for retirement. Economic expectation is to provide long-term funding to support the economic development. Pension fund companies have the most important responsibility to meet these expectations. In this study, the profits of investment instruments and individual pension funds are compared in a long term perspective, using three basic portfolio performance measures. The term between January 2004 and September 2014 have been considered. Investment alternatives have been discussed in detail. BIST100, deposit, gold and currency basket (USD+EUR) are the investment instruments that are compared with individual pension funds. In addition, individual pension funds have been analyzed on company basis and the achievements of the pension fund companies have been revealed during the term mentioned above. According to our analysis, it has been concluded that personal retirement funds lost value considerably, especially due to inflation.

This paper describes the need for understanding the role of financial markets in successful product development in the global context. Agent-based models distinguish themselves by their ability to generate many real world phenomena endogenously, rather than as a result of ad-hoc assumptions. We report on a model of global financial markets employing the following agents: countries, firms, stock traders, country banks, and a global bank. These agents interact with goods, credit, currency, and stock markets. The model endogenously generated quantitative and qualitative features of real economies, including skewed firm sizes, skewed country GNP’s, skewed stock trader portfolio values, and heavy-tailed non-Gaussian firm growth rate, exchange rate fluctuation, and stock return distributions. Multiple runs were performed with different random number generator seeds to investigate the stability or instability of the economies grown by the model. Both stable and unstable country economies were detected. The multiple runs also verified conclusions drawn from analyzing individual runs showing how small countries could be buffeted by fluctuations in larger countries. Such a model can be used by product development organizations to understand the impacts of their product development decisions in the context of dynamic and unpredictable financial markets.

This investigation builds on the Alvarez et al. (2021) Project Completion Report (PCR) analysis and its aim is to assess the implications of that study for the current portfolio of projects under execution at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). We use the sample of PCRs which reached operational closure (CO) in 2017 and 2018 to estimate the impact that design and execution performance characteristics of projects played in the likelihood of ending as successful and/or effective. Based on the estimated coefficients, we construct risk curves to isolate the effect specific characteristics have on the likelihood of a project being classified as unsuccessful/ineffective. We then use the estimated coefficients and, using the actual values for the current portfolio of projects in execution, identify the fraction of the portfolio that is at risk of ending as unsuccessful/ineffective projects. According to our analysis, of the 249 projects assessed, 39 have a 50% or less chance of being successful. Thirteen (13) projects have less than a 10% chance. For about 70% of the projects analyzed, given the characteristics they exhibit, the likelihood that they end up successful has already been curtailed. The type of analysis presented here can help IDB Management identify key performance indicators to keep track of during execution to periodically assess the level of risk it is willing to accept in terms of projects ending unsuccessful/ineffective as rated by the current PCR methodology.

As the world economy rapidly decarbonises to meet global climate goals, the export credit sector must keep pace. Countries representing over two-thirds of global GDP have now set net zero targets, as have hundreds of private financial institutions. Public and private initiatives are now working to develop new standards and methodologies for shifting investment portfolios to decarbonisation pathways based on science. However, export credit agencies (ECAs) are only at the beginning stages of this seismic transformation. On the one hand, the net zero transition creates risks to existing business models and clients for the many ECAs, while on the other, it creates a significant opportunity for ECAs to refocus their support to help countries and trade partners meet their climate targets. ECAs can best take advantage of this transition, and minimise its risks, by setting net zero targets and adopting credible plans to decarbonise their portfolios. Collaboration across the sector can be a powerful tool for advancing this goal.

On 23 June 2021, Southern Voice and the Institute of Development Studies co-hosted an online dialogue which aimed to enhance efforts to inform and influence policy by sharing learning between CORE projects, at different stages in their policy engagement activities, on their approaches and experiences at sub-national, national, and regional levels. The event was attended by over 70 participants from across the CORE cohort and highlighted the experiences of CORE partners, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP), International Centre for Research on Women (ICRW), and Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE). This learning guide captures the practical insights and advice from the event to help inform the practice of both participants and other projects across the portfolio. The guide is structured around the key challenges identified in influencing policy, particularly within the changing parameters of the current pandemic, highlighting key messages and examples from the three partners.

The ERDC 2020–2030 Strategy outlines the origination of the organization, future direction, and the methods used to accomplish its research and development mission. The Strategy details the Ends (where we are going and why), the Ways (how we will get there), and the Means (the resources needed to get there) by which we will achieve the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) strategy. To realize its vision and maintain its world-class status, ERDC strives to be the go-to organization for the Warfighter and the nation to solve large complex problems in its mission space. To strengthen the outcomes from the Ends, Ways, and Means, ERDC has adopted the philosophy of the Understand-Predict-Shape (UPS) paradigm. The UPS paradigm maximizes the potential of ERDC’s current research programs and helps contemplate, develop, and define the organization’s future portfolio. UPS represents a holistic view of the operational environment: How to better Understand the Present, Predict the Future, and Shape the Outcome. The ERDC leadership team has looked toward the future and defined major strategic Science and Technology campaigns that offer challenges that ERDC can, and should, effectively address.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This report reflects on progress from over eight years of research projects in the cyberlearning community. The community involved computer scientists and learning scientists who received NSF awards to investigate the design of more equitable learning experiences with emerging technology—focusing on developing the learning theories and technologies that are likely to become important within 5-10 years. In early 2020, the Center for Innovative Research in Cyberlearning's team analyzed the portfolio of past and current project in this community and convened a panel of experts to reflect on important trends and issues, including artificial intelligence and learning; learning theories; research methods; out-of-school-time learning; and trends at NSF and beyond.

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor