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Lardeau, Thomas Laurent. "Equilibre du marché du crédit et cycle économique : un nouvel accélérateur financier." Thesis, Paris 13, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA131027/document.
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Avec le retour des cycles financiers et la crise des subprimes, la littérature a remis en avant l’influence macroéconomique des facteurs financiers. A partir du marché du crédit, elle s’est essentiellement développée avec la théorie de l’accélérateur financier (Bernanke et Gertler [1989], Bernanke, Gertler et Gilchrist [1999]) fondée sur l’hypothèse d’asymétrie d’information. Cette thèse se propose de compléter cette littérature en considérant le cas dans lequel l’offre de crédit s’exprime en situation d’incertitude radicale et de revenir sur cette théorie en proposant, à partir de certaines de ses limites, un autre mécanisme d’accélération financière qui soit de nature plus macroéconomique. Ce mécanisme permet alors d’améliorer la compréhension du rôle du marché du crédit dans l’explication des fluctuations économiques et de réinterpréter les recommandations de politique économiqueWith the renewal of financial cycles and the subprime crisis, literature had focused on the macroeconomic influence of the financial factors. From the credit market, it mainly developed along the theory of financial accelerator (Bernanke and Gertler [1989], Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist [1999]) which is based on the hypothesis of asymmetric information. This thesis gives aim to complete this literature by considering that credit supply must be also considered in radical uncertainty and to return on it by proposing, from some of its own limits, another mechanism of financial accelerator which can be viewed as more macroeconomic. So, it leads us to improve our understanding of the credit market in the explanation of macroeconomic fluctuations and to reconsider economic policy related
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Tabarly, Guilhem. "The Financial Cycle and the Business Cycle : it Takes Two to Tango." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PSLED007.
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La thèse explore, via différents outils statistiques, les interactions entre la sphère financière et la sphère réelle, dont la compréhension est cruciale pour assurer la stabilité financière. Le chapitre introductif détaille l’importance des frictions financières pour les mécanismes de transmissions macro-financiers, et illustre ces phénomènes avec la récente crise financière. Le deuxième chapitre décompose le Cycle Financier en deux composantes, le Cycle du Crédit et le Cycle des Conditions Financières. Les deux composantes sont identifiées en fonction de leur impact négatif non-linéaire sur l’activité économique et leur pertinence est évaluée à l’aune de leur contribution à la mesure de l’écart de production en temps réel. Le troisième chapitre étudie l’impact réel d’un choc financier structurel, grâce à une méthode d’identification statistique des liens de causalité entre les variables économiques et financières. Le dernier chapitre interroge les fondements de l’instabilité chronique du contenu prédictif des variables financières à l’aide de nombreux modèles économétriques et d’apprentissage automatiqueThe interplay between financial factors and the real economy is now a focal point of macroeconomic research. The introductory chapter seeks to provide a conceptual framework for the study of macro-financial linkages. The rest of the thesis falls within the impetus to research programs brought to the fore by the recent crisis. The second chapter claims that the Financial Cycle is made up of two different components, the Credit Cycle and the Financial Condition Cycle. The two cycles are identified in the light of their impact on economic activity and their relevance is assessed on the grounds of their contribution for the real-time estimation of the output gap. The third chapter uses a datadriven technique to unravel the contemporaneous causal ordering between economic variables and financial variables and investigates the impact of structural financial shocks on economic activity. The final chapter explores, via a battery of econometric and Machine Learning models, whether the inherently unstable nature of financial variables’ predictive power for output is related to the modelling framework or to the variables themselves
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Lavoie, Sébastien. "Expliquer les points tournants du cycle économique à l'aide du cycle financier." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/MQ57872.pdf.
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Gauthier, David. "Financial stress and the business cycle." Thesis, Paris 1, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PA01E057.
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Le fil directeur de cette thèse est l’étude du stress financier et en particulier de ses implications pour les fluctuations économiques. Comment expliquer l’impact des crises financières ? Quel est le rôle du système bancaire dans la propagation des chocs financiers ? Comment reconnaître et prévoir une crise financière ? Chacun des chapitres de cette thèse a pour but d’apporter des éléments de réponse nouveaux à ces grandes questions de la macroéconomie moderne. Dans le premier chapitre, réalisé en collaboration avec Yvan Bécard, nous estimons un modèle d’équilibre général dans lequel les banques ajustent leurs conditions de crédit selon leur capacité à liquider le collatéral de leurs emprunteurs. Nous montrons que les chocs de collatéral, c’est-à-dire des chocs affectant l’efficacité des banques à liquider le collatéral, permettent de comprendre le cycle des affaires américain et en particulier les variations de la consommation, des volumes de prêts et des taux d’emprunt. Les chocs de collatéral ont aussi la particularité de ressembler aux conditions de crédits bancaires observées ces trente dernières années pour les firmes et les ménages. Dans un second chapitre, je développe un modèle d’équilibre général où le système bancaire est organisé en compétition de monopole. J’utilise le modèle pour étudier le rôle de la compétition bancaire dans la propagation des crises financières. Je trouve qu’un faible degré de compétition du système bancaire peut limiter l’impact des chocs financiers lorsque l’efficacité de la politique monétaire est limitée par la borne à taux zéro. Dans le troisième chapitre, j’étudie l’évolution des choix de financement des firmes américaines en réponse à différent types de chocs économiques. Je trouve que seuls les chocs financiers impliquent des mouvements opposés pour les prêts bancaires et les prêts obligataires. J’utilise ce résultat couplé avec une méthode dite de restriction de signe pour identifier les chocs financiers dans un modèle VAR. Je trouve que les chocs ainsi identifiés expliquent une large partie du cycle des affaires et en particulier les deux dernières récessions. Finalement, cette stratégie d’identification me permet de calculer une mesure de stress financier capable de prédire l’évolution des spreads obligatairesIn this thesis, I investigate the implications of financial stress for economic fluctuations along several dimensions. What is it that makes financial crisis so disruptive? What is the role of the banking system in their propagation? How to identify and forecast financial distress? Each chapter brings new elements to complement the literature on these broad questions. In the first chapter of this thesis, written together with Yvan Bécard, we estimate a general equilibrium model where banks can adjust their lending standards for households and firms depending on their ability to liquidate the collateral of their borrowers. We find that collateral shocks, shocks that modify the liquidity of banks’ collateral, explain most of the US business cycle fluctuations for investment, consumption, loan volumes, and the credit spreads. In addition, the collateral shocks resemble measures of bank lending standard as observed over the past 30 years for households and firms. In the second chapter, I develop a model where the banking system is characterized by monopolistic competition and used to study the role of bank competition in the propagation of financial crises. I find that low competition in the banking system can dampen the impact of financial stress in situations where monetary policy is impeded by the ZLB. In the last chapter, I study the evolution of firm debt choices in response to different types of aggregate shocks. I find that only financial shocks imply opposite movements in bond and loan volumes. I use this result with sign-restriction methods to identify financial shocks in a VAR model. I find that financial shocks identified with bond and loan series explain a large share of the business cycle and especially the two last recessions. I also use the identification strategy to recover a measure of financial stress. This measure allows predicting the evolution of corporate bond spreads
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Lefebvre, Vivien. "Stratégie de croissance, cycle de vie financier et gestion financière des petites et moyennes entreprises." Thesis, Strasbourg, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020STRAB002.
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Les petites et moyennes entreprises (PME) font face à des contraintes de financement qui restreignent leurs stratégies de croissance et la flexibilité de leur gestion financière. Cette thèse contribue à une meilleure compréhension des stratégies de croissance de PME ainsi qu’à leur gestion et leur financement du besoin en fonds de roulement (BFR). La première partie se concentre sur les stratégies de croissance mises en œuvre par les PME. Le premier chapitre présente les principales caractéristiques des opérations de croissance externe des PME et l’articulation de ces opérations avec l’introduction en bourse. Le deuxième chapitre étudie l’impact sur la performance des opérations de croissance externe. Le troisième chapitre propose une étude exploratoire de la formation de groupes de sociétés par les PME. Dans la deuxième partie, les caractéristiques de la gestion et du financement du BFR des PME sont analysées. Le quatrième chapitre montre ainsi que la performance des PME est négativement affectée par un sous-investissement en BFR à travers des coûts d’opportunités et que cet effet est plus fort que pour des entreprises plus grandes. Le cinquième chapitre indique que les PME nouvellement introduites en bourse offrent des délais de paiement plus importants à leur clients mais sans que d’autres aspects de la gestion du BFR ne soient modifiés par l’introduction. Le sixième chapitre montre la flexibilité financière offerte par l’appartenance à un groupe de sociétés en matière de gestion du BFRSmall and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face financing constraints that limit both their growth choices and financial management. This thesis contributes to a better understanding of SMEs growth strategies and working capital management. The first part focuses on SMEs growth strategies. The first chapter documents the main characteristics of SMEs acquisition activities at the initial public offering stage. The second chapter investigates the impact of acquisitions on SMEs performances. The third chapter is an exploratory study of the formation and expansion of business groups by SMEs. In the second part, we study the characteristics of SMEs working capital management. The fourth chapter highlights that the performance of SMEs is negatively related to underinvestment in working capital due to opportunity costs and that this effect is higher than for larger firms. Chapter five reports that newly listed SMEs offer longer payment delays to their customers but that going public does not impact other aspects of working capital management. Chapter six documents the financial flexibility offered by business group affiliation with respect to working capital management
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Pradat, Yannick. "Retraite et risque financier." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLED022/document.
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Le premier chapitre examine les caractéristiques statistiques à long terme des rendements financiers en France et aux USA. Les propriétés des différents actifs font apparaître qu’à long terme les actions procurent un risque sensiblement moins élevé. En outre, les propriétés de retour à la moyenne des actions justifient qu’elles soient utilisées dans une stratégie de cycle de vie comme « option par défaut » de plans d’épargne retraite. Le chapitre deux fournit une explication au débat sur l'hypothèse d’efficience des marchés. La cause du débat est souvent attribuée à la petite taille des échantillons et à la faible puissance des tests statistiques dédiés. Afin de contourner ce problème, nous utilisons l'approche développée par Campbell et Viceira (2005) qui utilisent une méthode VAR pour mettre en évidence l’existence de retour vers la moyenne dans le cours des actifs risqués.Le troisième chapitre évalue la vitesse de convergence des cours des actions. Un moyen classique pour caractériser la vitesse de retour vers la moyenne est la « demi-vie ». En comparant les indices boursiers de quatre pays développés (États-Unis, Royaume-Uni, France et Japon) sur la période 1950-2014, nous établissons une vitesse de convergence significative, avec une demi-vie entre 4,0 et 5,8 ans.Le dernier chapitre présente les résultats d'un modèle conçu pour étudier les interactions entre la démographie et les régimes de retraite. Afin d’étudier les risques inhérents à l’utilisation des revenus du capital pour financer les retraites, nous utilisons un « Trending OU process » au lieu d’un MBG classique pour modéliser les rendements. Pour un épargnant averse au risque le marché pourrait concurrencer les régimes par répartitionChapter one examines the long run statistical characteristics of financial returns in France and the USA for selected assets. This study clearly shows that the returns’ distributions diverge from the Gaussian strategy as regards longholding periods. Thereafter we analyze the consequences of the non-Gaussian nature of stock returns on default-option retirement plans.Chapter two provides a reasonable explanation to the strong debate on the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The cause of the debate is often attributed to small sample sizes in combination with statistical tests for mean reversion that lackpower. In order to bypass this problem, we use the approach developed by Campbell and Viceira (2005) who have settled a vectorial autoregressive methodology (VAR) to measure the mean reversion of asset returns.The third chapter evaluates the speed of convergence of stock prices. A convenient way to characterize the speed of mean reversion is the half-life. Comparing the stock indexes of four developed countries (US, UK, France and Japan) during the period 1950-2014, we establish significant mean reversion, with a half-life lying between 4,0 and 5,8 years.The final chapter provides some results from a model built in order to study the linked impacts of demography and economy on the French pension scheme. In order to reveal the risks that are contained in pension fund investment, we use a Trending Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process instead of the typical GBM for modeling stock returns. We find that funded scheme returns, net of management fees, are slightly lower thanthe PAYG internal rate of return
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Mendez, Julien. "Théories pré-keynésiennes de l’instabilité financière : Marx, Veblen, Hawtrey." Thesis, Paris 10, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA100060/document.
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Cette thèse montre que l’on peut trouver chez Marx, Veblen et Hawtrey trois théories pré-keynésiennes de l’instabilité financière. Elle dégage, pour chacun d’eux, le cadre théorique qu’il met en place et qui lui permet de poser la question du rôle de la finance dans la dynamique économique. Elle analyse ensuite leurs écrits pour montrer que l’on peut en déduire des théories (incomplètes) de l’instabilité financière, c’est-à-dire que les perturbations économiques sont dues à la manière dont les entreprises se financent. Le chapitre I reconstruit la théorie marxienne des marchés financiers, ce qui permet, dans le chapitre II, de montrer le rôle central joué par la finance dans l’explication du cycle économique chez Marx. Le chapitre III dégage les éléments qui font de la théorie de Veblen une théorie du capitalisme financier, puis, dans le chapitre IV, discute cette dernière pour montrer qu’il s’agit d’une théorie de l’instabilité financière. Le chapitre V propose une représentation du modèle macroéconomique de Hawtrey, à partir de laquelle le chapitre VI dégage les conditions dans lesquelles le crédit est instable dans sa théorie. Le chapitre VII fait le lien entre les théories de ces auteurs et les faits économiques dont la connaissance a nourri leur réflexion : les théories de l’instabilité financière sont à la fois une explication, une représentation et un projet de régulation du capitalisme financierThe thesis demonstrates that three pre-keynesians theories of financial instability can be found in Marx, Veblen and Hawtrey. For each of these three authors, the argument is that the theoretical frame displayed allows him question the role of finance in the economic dynamic. Then, analysis of their main writings shows that theories of financial instability can be infered from them. In chapter I, the marxian theory of financial markets is reconstituted paving the way to the demonstration of the central role played by finance in the explanation of the business cycle in Marx’s theory in Chapter 2. In Chapter III, we show what elements in Veblen’s theory constitutes a theory of finance capitalism. Then, the discussion in Chapter IV shows how it a theory of financial instability. In Chapter V is displayed a representation of of Hawtrey’s macro-model. Chapter VI highlights the conditions under which credit is unstable in his theory. Chapter VII shows the links between the three authors’ theories and the economic facts that nurtured their thinking. It shows that their theories of financial instability are an explanation, a representation et a project of regulation of financial capitalism
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Zeng, Songlin. "Nonlinear Time Series Models with Applications in Macroeconomics and Finance." Thesis, Cergy-Pontoise, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013CERG0638.
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Les trois chapitres suivants examinent: 1) si les taux de change réels d'Asie du Sud-Est sont nonlinéaire, 2) l'inférence bayésienne sur le modèle de série temporelle nonlinéaire avec des applications sur le taux de change réel,et 3) la cyclicité et effet de rebond dans le marché boursier.Depuis la fin des années nonante, les analyses théorique et empirique consacrée au taux de change réel suggèrent que la dynamique pourrait être bien estimés par les modèles non linéaires. Le premier chapitre examine cette possibilité utilisant les données mensuelles de l'ASEAN-5, et il s'étend la recherche existante dans deux directions. Tout d'abord, nous utilisons récemment mis au point des tests de racine unitaire ce qui permettra d'assouplir les modèles non linéaires stationnaires dans le cadre du d'autre alternative que l'couramment utilisés à SETAR ou ESTAR modèle. Deuxièmement, bien que différents modèles nonlinéaires survivre aux tests de mis-spécification, une expérience Monte Carlo à partir de généralisées fonctions de réponse impulsionnelle est utilisé pour comparer leur pertinence relative. Nos résultats i) soutenir l'hypothèse de retour nonlinéaire à la moyenne , et donc la parité de pouvoir d'achat, dans la moitié des cas et ii) indiquent MRLSTAR et ESTAR comme les plus probables processus générant des taux de change réels.Le deuxième chapitre analyse ACR modèle. Nous proposons une approche bayésienne complète d'inférence et une attention particulière est portée sur les paramètres des variables de seuil. Nous discutons le choix des distributions a priori et proposer une chaîne de Markov algorithme de Monte Carlo pour estimer les paramètres et les variables latentes. Une étude de simulation et de l'application à des données taux de change réelles illustrer l'analyse.Le troisième chapitre explore que les différentes formes de recouvrements dans les marchés financiers peuvent présenter dans un modèle de Markov Switching. Elle s'appuie sur les effets de rebond d'abord analysé par Kim, Morley et Piger [2005] dans le cycle des affaires et généralisé par Bec, Bouabdallah et Ferrara [2011] pour permettre une plus souple de type rebond.Nos résultats i) montrer que l'effet de rebond est statistiquement significative et importante dans tous les cas, mais l'Allemagne où la preuve est moins claire et ii) l'impact négatif permanent de marchés baissiers sur l'indice est notablement réduite lorsque le rebond est explicitement pris en compteThe following three chapters investigate: 1) whether Southeast Asian real exchange rates are nonlinear mean reverting, 2) bayesian inference on nonlinear time series model with applications in real exchange rate, and 3)cyclicality and bounce-back effect in stock market. Since the late nineties, both theoretical and empirical analyses devoted to the real exchange rate suggest that their dynamics might be well approximated by nonlinear models. This paper examines this possibility for post-1970 monthly ASEAN-5 data, extending the existing research in two directions. First, we use recently developed unit root tests which allow for more flexible nonlinear stationary models under the alternative than the commonly used Self-Exciting Threshold or Exponential Smooth Transition AutoRegressions. Second, while different nonlinear models survive the mis-specification tests, a Monte Carlo experiment from generalized impulse response functions is used to compare their relative relevance. Our results support the nonlinear mean-reverting hypothesis, and hence the Purchasing Power Parity, in half the cases and point to the Multiple Regime-Logistic Smooth Transition and the Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegressive models as the most likely data generating processes of these real exchange rates.Various nonlinear threshold models are employed to mimic the real exchange rate dynamics. A natural question arises: Which model does the best job of modeling the real exchange rate process? It is difficult and not straightforward to formally compare the nonlinear models within classic approach. In the second chapter, we propose to use Bayesian approach to address this issue. The second part of my dissertation actually uses a Bayesian method to estimate some nonlinear time series models, the ACR model, SETAR model, and MAR model. We propose a full Bayesian inference approach and particular attention is paid to the parameters of the threshold variables. We discuss the choice of the prior distributions and propose a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating both the parameters and the latent variables. A simulation study and the application to real exchange rate data illustrate the analysis. Our empirical results of the second chapter show that i) Bayesian estimations closely match those of the Maximum likelihood for French real exchange rate vis-a-vis Deutsche Mark; ii)the speed of real exchange rate's adjustment to equilibrium level is overestimated if heterogeneous variances in two regimes is not taken into account; iii) ACR model is preferred to other nonlinear threshold models, SETAR and MAR; iv) within ACR class models, the suitable transition function form is selected based on Bayes factor.This paper proposes an empirical study of the shape of recoveries in financial markets from a bounce-back augmented Markov Switching model. It relies on models first applied by Kim, Morley et Piger [2005] to the business cycle analysis. These models are estimated for monthly stock market returns data of five developed countries for the post-1970 period. Focusing on a potential bounce-back effect in financial markets, its presence and shape are formally tested. Our results show that i) the bounce-back effect is statistically significant and large in all countries, but Germany where evidence is less clear-cut and ii) the negative permanent impact of bear markets on the stock price index is notably reduced when the rebound is explicitly taken into account
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Langlais, Éric. "Consommation et épargne dans l'incertain : analyse et implications du concept de prudence." Paris 1, 1992. http://www.theses.fr/1992PA010021.
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Nous développons une analyse des choix de consommation dans l'incertain qui repose sur le concept de "prudence". Celui-ci permet de caractériser la sensibilité au risque des décisions optimales d'un agent et donne une information sur sa capacité à s'en prémunir, par la recherche d'une couverture contre un risque non désiré. En contrepartie, l'hypothèse usuelle "d'aversion pour le risque" ne donne que la disposition générale d'un agent à préférer des situations certaines sur des situations risquées, mais ne donne aucune indication quant au comportement optimal d'un agent face à un accroissement du risque. Nous caractérisons cette hypothèse de prudence dans un modèle simple à deux périodes, en présence d'un risque de revenu d'abord, puis d'un risque de taux d'intérêt. Nous montrons ensuite que l'hypothèse de prudence permet d'avancer un certain nombre d'explications simples et originales pour les paradoxes empiriques mis en évidence dans la littérature, dans le domaine de la théorie de la consommation et de la théorie des prix sur les marchés financiersWe develop an analysis of consumption choices under uncertainty, based on the concept of "prudence". This one characterizes the sensibility to risk of consumer's decisions, and gives an information about his ability to forearm himself in the face of uncertainty. In return, the common hypothesis of "risk aversion" is only a general behavioral hypothesis, implying that an agent preferes sure situation as compared to risky situations, but giving no information on optimal decisions of the consumer when uncertainty is growing. We define this notion of "prudence" in a simple two-periods model, firstly when there is a risky income, and secondly a risky interest rate. Then, we show that this assumption of "prudence" can be used to give some new insights on a few empirical puzzles which appear in the literature, and which concern the theory of consumption under uncertainty and the theory of asset prices
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Majoul, Amira. "Transmission du cycle économique des Etats Unis au reste du monde : le cas des pays émergents." Thesis, Lyon 2, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014LYO22002/document.
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La question de la transmission internationale des cycles a reçu une attention considérable en raison de l’intensification de la globalisation économique et financière. La problématique générale de cette thèse s’inscrit dans le prolongement de la littérature consacrée à cette question. Plus précisément, elle focalise son attention sur l’analyse de la transmission du cycle des Etats-Unis sur les pays émergents. Elle comporte trois chapitres. Le premier, en se basant sur une nouvelle approche économétrique en termes de modèle Global VAR, s’attache à étudier l’effet des chocs provenant des Etats-Unis sur les pays émergents. Il confirme l’idée que les Etats-Unis jouent un rôle important dans la transmission des cycles économiques étant donné leur poids dans l’économie mondiale. Le second chapitre propose d’étudier la transmission financière des Etats-Unis en s’intéressant à la crise des subprimes sur ces pays. L’estimation du modèle switch à probabilité variée développée indique que la persistance des stress financiers, le durcissement des conditions du crédit et l’augmentation du risque de non-solvabilité bancaire ont été les causes fondamentales de la transmission financière. La volatilité de l’indice boursier américain a été le facteur clé de la contamination avec tous les pays étudiés. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à étudier si les pays émergents sont en mesure d’adopter des politiques budgétaires contracycliques pouvant atténuer les chocs provenant de l’extérieur. En utilisant le modèle à seuil avec transition lisse en panel (le modèle PSTR), ce chapitre confirme que la politique budgétaire dans les pays émergents est procyclique en période de ralentissement économique et aussi lorsque la dette publique dépasse le seuil critique. De ce fait, une solide position budgétaire est fondamentale pour assurer la stabilité macroéconomiqueThe issue of international transmission cycles has considerably received attention due to the increasing economic and financial globalization. Our thesis is in line with the literature dedicated to this question. More specifically, we focusour attention on the analysis of the transmission cycle of the United States to emerging countries. It consists of three chapters. The first one, based on a new econometric approach in terms of Global VAR model, aims to study the effect of shocks from the U.S. to emerging countries. The main resultconfirms the idea that the United States plays an important role in the transmission of economic cycles given their weight in the world economy. The second chapter proposes to study the financial transmission of the United States by focusing on the subprime crisis on these countries. The estimation of time varyingtransitionprobability (TVTP) Markov switchingmodel indicates that the persistence of financial stress, the tightening of the conditions of the credit and the increase of the risk of Banking solvency constitute the major determinants of the financial transmission. The US stock market volatility is the key factor transmission channel for all the studied countries. The third chapter is devoted to investigate whether emerging countries are able to adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to mitigate the impact from outside. Using the threshold model with smooth transition panel ( the PSTR model ), this chapter confirms that fiscal policy in emerging countries is procyclicalin the slowdown periodand also when public debt exceeds the critical threshold. Therefore, a strong fiscal position is fundamental to ensure macroeconomic stability
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Petronevich, Anna. "Dynamic factor model with non-linearities : application to the business cycle analysis." Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E050/document.
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Cette thèse est dédiée à une classe particulière de modèles à facteurs dynamiques non linéaires, les modèles à facteurs dynamiques à changement de régime markovien (MS-DFM). Par la combinaison des caractéristiques du modèle à facteur dynamique et celui du modèle à changement de régimes markoviens(i.e. la capacité d’agréger des quantités massives d’information et de suivre des processus fluctuants), ce cadre s’est révélé très utile et convenable pour plusieurs applications, dont le plus important est l’analyse des cycles économiques.La connaissance de l’état actuel des cycles économiques est crucial afin de surveiller la santé économique et d’évaluer les résultats des politiques économiques. Néanmoins, ce n’est pas une tâche facile à réaliser car, d’une part, il n’y a pas d’ensemble de données et de méthodes communément reconnus pour identifier les points de retournement, d’autre part, car les institutions officielles annoncent un nouveau point de retournement, dans les pays où une telle pratique existe, avec un délai structurel de plusieurs mois.Le MS-DFM est en mesure de résoudre ces problèmes en fournissant des estimations de l’état actuel de l’économie de manière rapide, transparente et reproductible sur la base de la composante commune des indicateurs macroéconomiques caractérisant le secteur réel.Cette thèse contribue à la vaste littérature sur l’identification des points de retournement du cycle économique dans trois direction. Dans le Chapitre 3, on compare les deux techniques d’estimation de MS-DFM, les méthodes en une étape et en deux étapes, et on les applique aux données françaises pour obtenir la chronologie des points de retournement du cycle économique. Dans Chapitre 4, sur la base des simulations de Monte Carlo, on étudie la convergence des estimateurs de la technique retenue - la méthode d’estimation en deux étapes, et on analyse leur comportement en échantillon fini. Dans le Chapitre 5, on propose une extension de MS-DFM - le MS-DFM à l’influence dynamique (DI-MS-DFM)- qui permet d’évaluer la contribution du secteur financier à la dynamique du cycle économique et vice versa, tout en tenant compte du fait que l’interaction entre eux puisse être dynamiqueThis thesis is dedicated to the study of a particular class of non-linear Dynamic Factor Models, the Dynamic Factor Models with Markov Switching (MS-DFM). Combining the features of the Dynamic Factor model and the Markov Switching model, i.e. the ability to aggregate massive amounts of information and to track recurring processes, this framework has proved to be a very useful and convenient instrument in many applications, the most important of them being the analysis of business cycles.In order to monitor the health of an economy and to evaluate policy results, the knowledge of the currentstate of the business cycle is essential. However, it is not easy to determine since there is no commonly accepted dataset and method to identify turning points, and the official institutions announce a newturning point, in countries where such practice exists, with a structural delay of several months. The MS-DFM is able to resolve these issues by providing estimates of the current state of the economy in a timely, transparent and replicable manner on the basis of the common component of macroeconomic indicators characterizing the real sector. The thesis contributes to the vast literature in this area in three directions. In Chapter 3, I compare the two popular estimation techniques of the MS-DFM, the one-step and the two-step methods, and apply them to the French data to obtain the business cycle turning point chronology. In Chapter 4, on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, I study the consistency of the estimators of the preferred technique -the two-step estimation method, and analyze their behavior in small samples. In Chapter 5, I extend the MS-DFM and suggest the Dynamical Influence MS-DFM, which allows to evaluate the contribution of the financial sector to the dynamics of the business cycle and vice versa, taking into consideration that the interaction between them can be dynamic
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Giauffer, André-Charles. "Processus d'accélérateur financier et dynamique financière du cylcle d'affaires : une comparaison internationale." Nice, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008NICE0012.
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La question du rôle des variables financières dans l'explication du rythme de la croissance économique des pays industrialisés ainsi que dans ses soubresauts est de plus en plus centrale. En effet, les mouvements de déréglementation et de libéralisation financière engagés au début des années 1970 ont engendré un fort développement des marchés financiers et une nette progression de l'influence des variables financières au sein de la dynamique des économies industrialisées. Les évolutions des moyens de financement ainsi que la hausse des encours de financement externes ont favorisé et accompagné une forte progression du niveau de création de richesses des économies capitalistes. En revanche, ils en ont également modifié profondément la dynamique ainsi que la physionomie des cycles d'affaires. Plus précisément, les conditions de financement apparaissent déterminer de plus en plus fortement le niveau de l'activité économique par l'intermédiaire de la prime de financement car cette dernière pèse sur les efforts d'investissement des entreprises par l'intermédiaire de leurs coûts de financements externes. Or, cette prime de financement est en grande partie déterminée par le niveau des richesses nettes des entreprises ainsi que leurs perspectives de profits. C'est à partir de ce principe que nous pouvons mettre en évidence le fonctionnement d'un processus d'accélérateur financier faisant interagir les conditions de financement avec les richesses nettes et la solidité des structures de financement des entreprises. Le niveau de la prime de financement qui en découle venant peser plus ou moins fortement sur la profitabilité de leurs projets d'investissement. Ce processus insuffle ainsi une dynamique financière au cycle d'affaires dont nous nous efforçons de mettre en évidence les fondements théoriques pour ensuite mesurer les interactions établies par l'estimation de modèles vectoriels à correction d'erreur. Dans le cadre des systèmes financiers des cinq pays faisant partie des économies les plus industrialisés et dont les caractéristiques sont sensiblement différentes, les interactions relevées au sein du processus d'accélérateur financier mettent en évidence notamment des relations de cointégration entre les variables étudiéesThe role of financial variables in explaining the rate of industrialized countries economic growth as well as its turbulence is increasingly central. Indeed, the deregulation and financial liberalization movements undertaken in the early 1970's have resulted in a strong development of financial markets and a sharp increase in the influence of the financial variables in the industrialized economies dynamics. The changes in funding as well as the rising stock of external financing have encouraged and accompanied a sharp increase in the level of wealth creation in capitalist economies. However, they have also changed the dynamics as well as the face of business cycles. Specifically, the financing conditions appear to increasingly determine the level of economic activity through the grant funding since the latter weighs on the efforts of firms to invest through their outside funding costs. Yet, that premium funding is largely determined by the level of firms' net worth and their expected profits. It's from this principle that we can enlighten the way the process of financial accelerator interacts heavily in financing conditions with firms' net worth and health structures. The level of premium funding those results weighs more or less strongly on their investment projects profitability. This process brings a financial dynamic to the business cycle in which we try to highlight the theoretical foundations and then measure the interactions determined by the estimate of vector error correction models. As part of the financial systems of the five countries among the most industrialized ones and with different characteristics, interactions observed in the process of financial accelerator shows cointegration relations between the studied variables
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Pisani, Florence. "La prise des risques financiers : une approche macro-économique du rôle des marchés." Thesis, Paris 9, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA090032.
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La montée du poids de la finance est, pour une part au moins, une réponse à la mise en place et en œuvre de stocks de capital productif toujours plus importants et à l’accumulation, qui en est la contrepartie, d’une masse toujours plus grande d’actifs financiers. A ce premier facteur qui fait de la montée du poids de la finance une conséquence en partie « mécanique » du développement économique, s’en est toutefois ajouté un autre : une montée incontestable du rôle des marchés financiers qui est venue modifier en profondeur la façon dont les risques liés au financement de cette accumulation de capital productif sont désormais portés. Le mécanisme d’allocation de l’épargne et de prise de risques mis à disposition de nos économies par les marchés financiers n’a toutefois ni la puissance ni la robustesse que lui prêtent les tenants de la libéralisation financière. La masse de risques qu’un système financier peut porter est fonction des contraintes de prudence imposées par les régulateurs, mais aussi de l’attitude face au risque des acteurs financiers. Le caractère cyclique de cette dernière a une incidence majeure sur la stabilité financière : le système peut brutalement ne plus parvenir à trouver seul son équilibreThe rise of finance in developed economies is, for a part at least, a response to the provision and use of an ever growing volume of productive capital stocks and to the accumulation of an ever growing amount of financial assets, which is its counterpart. It is, however, far from being only a mechanical consequence of the development of the real sphere of the economy: the development of financial markets has also radically altered the way financial risks associated with the financing of the accumulation of capital stocks are now borne. The mechanisms allocating savings and redistributing financial risks at the disposal of our economies have, however, neither the efficiency nor the robustness advocated by the proponents of financial liberalization. The mass of risks a financial system can absorb depends not only on prudential regulatory constraints, but also on financial agents’ attitude towards risk. The pro-cyclical nature of the latter has a major impact on financial stability: the system can suddenly be unable to strike a balance on its own
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Augustin, Ted Emmanuel. "Synchronisation des cycles, vulnérabilité financière et politique macro-prudentielle : vers une réforme en Haïti." Thesis, Rennes 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013REN1G017/document.
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La résilience apparente du secteur financier haïtien face à la crise financière de 2007-2008 soulève de nombreuses questions quant à son degré réel d’immunité face au risque systémique et aux raisons fondamentales qui auraient pu expliquer ce phénomène. Leur apporter des éclairages, notamment à partir d’études empiriques, peut aider à mieux cerner les enjeux et la formulation d’une politique macro-prudentielle pour Haïti. De fait, Haïti est un pays à faible revenu disposant d'un système financier formel restreint. De ce point de vue, son exposition aux aléas de l’environnement financier international peut paraître relativement faible. Toutefois, on se demande comment protéger l’industrie bancaire – et, incidemment l’économie haïtienne – d’un risque de nature systémique, compte tenu en particulier de l’ampleur des transferts de liquidité par la diaspora et ceux en nature. On peut donc y voir une source supplémentaire de vulnérabilité en cas de récession appelant un changement de priorité chez ces pays donateurs aux dépens de l’équilibre financier global de cette petite économie de la zone Caraïbe. Dans cette perspective, le présent travail de thèse vise d’abord à déterminer les principaux facteurs de la résilience des banques haïtiennes à la crise financière de 2007-2008. Les interdépendances entre les cycles financiers haïtien et ceux de ses voisins nord-américains sont ainsi étudiées. Pour apprécier la dimension systémique du risque que fait peser l’activité des banques, l’analyse porte aussi sur les liens entre cycle de crédit et cycle d’activité en Haïti. Ensuite, des estimations sont réalisées pour quantifier l’impact de la variabilité de la conjoncture sur les performances des banques. Les enseignements tirés de ces analyses alimentent la réflexion sur l’élaboration d’un dispositif de surveillance macro-prudentielle en Haïti. Les résultats obtenus attestent du lien étroit entre le cycle financier haïtien et ceux des membres de l’accord de libre échange nord-américain. Ceci représente une source de risques exogènes pour le système financier haïtien. De plus, l’analyse de l’impact de la variabilité de l’environnement macroéconomique sur les performances financières des banques commerciales haïtiennes supportent l’hypothèse de la fragilité du secteur bancaire. La diversité des expériences de politique macroprudentielle invite à recommander une voie médiane, entre séparation totale et fusion complète des pouvoirs monétaires et de surveillance de l’industrie bancaire, compatible avec les contraintes auxquelles Haïti est soumise. Finalement, l’implémentation d’une direction de macroprudence et une liste de plusieurs recommandations d’ordre macroprudentiel ont été proposées. Ces propositions visent à répondre aux problématiques qui semblent mettre en lumière les limites des instruments de la politique monétaireThe apparent resilience of the financial sector in Haiti towards the financial crisis of 2007-2008 raises many questions about the actual degree of resistance to systemic risk and the fundamental reasons that could explain this phenomenon. Providing insights, especially from empirical studies can help better understand the issues and the need for a strong macro -prudential policy in Haiti. In fact, Haiti is a low-income country with a limited formal financial system. From this point of view, its exposure to the unpredictable international financial environment may seem relatively low. However, one wonders how to protect the banking industry - and incidentally the Haitian economy – from a systemic risk, especially given the magnitude of the transfers of food and money from the Diaspora. It can therefore be seen as an additional source of vulnerability to recession resulting to a change of emphasis in the donor countries at the expense of overall financial equilibrium of this small economy in the Caribbean. The purpose of this thesis is to first identify the key factors of the resilience of Haitian banks to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. It also covers the interdependencies between Haitian financial cycles and those of its North American neighbors. To assess the systemic dimension of risk posed by the activities of banks, the analysis also focuses on the relationship between the credit cycle and the business cycle in Haiti. Second, estimates are made to quantify the impact of change in economic environment on the performance of banks. The lessons learned from these analyses feed the thought on the development of an efficient setup for macro-prudential regulation in Haiti. The results demonstrate the close relationship between the Haitian financial cycle and those members of the Agreement North American Free Trade Agreement. This is an exogenous source of risk for the Haitian financial system. In addition, the analysis of the impact of a change in the macroeconomic environment on the financial performance of the Haitian commercial banks strengthens the hypothesis of the banking system’s fragile state. The diversity of macro-prudential policy experiments lead me to recommend a compromise between total separation and complete fusion of monetary authorities and monitoring of the banking industry, consistent with the constraints that Haiti is facing. Finally, the implementation of a macro-prudential department as well as a list of several macro-prudential recommendations has been suggested. These proposals aim to address the issues that highlight the limits of the effectiveness of the monetary policy instruments
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Scott, Mary Christine. "Strategies to Implement Efficient Closing Cycles." ScholarWorks, 2019. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/7335.
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Many financial leaders lack strategies to make the timely fiscal reporting needed for business to obtain profitability, competitive advantage, and sustainability. The purpose of this single case study was to explore successful strategies used to complete efficient closing cycles to evaluate performance and support business decisions. The conceptual framework for this study was process improvement and the theory of constraints. Data were collected from semistructured interviews with 5 purposively selected leaders; data were supplemented with information from the organization's website and print materials. Financial leaders who had developed successful strategies to complete timely financial statements were selected to participate in the study from a U.S. healthcare organization. Data were analyzed using Yin's 5-step approach, which included examining, categorizing, tabulating, creating a data display, and testing the data. Transcript review validated that emerging themes were in alignment with participant experiences. Four major themes emerged from data analysis: provide training and professional development, promote teamwork, engage in effective communication, and use information technology. Social change implications include potential process improvement in hospitals that could provide insight into specific system processes that contribute to the rising cost of global healthcare. Financial leaders achieving increased profitability through process improvement could enable administrators to make financial contributions to their communities, expand to new markets, and create new employment opportunities.
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Boshoff, Willem Hendrik. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/1733.
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Thesis (MComm (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2006.The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in South African financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationship between cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The study is based on the original business cycle framework of Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell, but incorporates recent contributions by Australian economists Don Harding and Adrian Pagan, as well as the work of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York. Part I of the thesis is concerned with the characteristics of cycles in financial variables within the South African context. The first chapter presents a taxonomy of the concepts of classical, deviation and growth rate cycles in order to establish a simple reference framework for cycle concepts. At this point the concept of a ‘turning point cycle’ is introduced, with particular focus on the non-parametric method of turning point identification, following Harding and Pagan’s recent translation of the original work of Burns and Mitchell into a modern version with a sound statistical basis. With the turning points identified the dissertation proceeds to an exposition of descriptive measures of expansion and contraction phases. The second chapter entails an empirical report on descriptive results for amplitude and duration characteristics of cycle phases in the different financial variables, with separate reports for classical cycles and growth rate cycles. Chapter two concludes with a series of tables in which the behaviour of cycle phases are compared for different financial variables. Part II considers financial variables as potential leading indicators of the business cycle in South Africa. Chapter 3 introduces the concept ‘leading indicator’ to this end and distinguishes the original concept from modern, econometric versions. The chapter then introduces a framework for evaluating potential leading indicators, which emphasises two requirements: firstly, broad co-movement between cycles in the proposed leading indicator and the business cycle and, secondly, stability in the number of months between turning points in cycles of the proposed indicator and business cycle turning points. The capacity of potential indicators to meet these criteria is measured via the concordance statistic and the ‘lead profile’ respectively. Chapter four provides the statistical basis for the concordance statistic, after which the empirical results (presented separately for classical and growth rate cycles) are presented. The fifth chapter presents the statistical test for the stability of the interval by which cyclical turning points in the potential indicator lead turning points in the business cycle. Empirical results are presented in both tabular form (the ‘lead profile’) and graphical form (the ‘lead profile chart’). As far as can be determined, this analysis represents the first application of the ‘lead profile’ evaluation to financial variables. Chapter six concludes by presenting a summary of the results and a brief comparison with findings from an econometric study of leading indicators for South Africa.
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Hammady, Brho Mazen. "Supply Chain Finance: Developing a Weighted Cash Conversion Cycle to Proxy Corporate Financial Performance." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2018. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1248432/.
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The objective of this three-essay dissertation are to develop a weighted cash conversion cycle (CCC_EVA) and empirically investigate its commensurability of corporate financial performance. Essay 1, titled "Supply Chain Finance: Developing a Weighted Cash Conversion Cycle to Proxy Operations Liquidity", presents the development and supporting empirical evidence of CCC_EVA measurability of operations liquidity. This essay shows the processes of scaling capital intensity and financing cost into time intervals captured by the traditional metric. Specifically, this essay investigates how accurately CCC_EVA indexes operations liquidity captured working capital, operational cash flow-to-modified working capital ratio, and quick ratio. The sample used in this essay consists of 4,333 firm-year observations of publicly traded industry classified firms listed on the U.S. exchange markets. The results of the empirical testing have statistically supported the essay hypotheses, that is CCC_EVA is a more accurate proxy of operations liquidity in comparison to the traditional metric (CCC_D).
Essay 2, titled "Supply Chain Finance: Weighted Cash Conversion Cycle and Corporate Finance", expands the first essay findings by accounting for well-known financial measurements. Specifically, this essay examines the relations between CCC_EVA and operations liquidity and leverage, Market value, operating profitably and growth, and long-term asset management efficiency. This essay paper has used a sample of 24,127 firm-year observations of publicly traded firms listed on U.S. exchange markets from 1994 to 2016. The results support and extend the previous findings, that is CCC_EVA is a robust proxy of operations liquidity and can enhance its resiliency; maximize market value of corporate equity and debt; identify strategies to improve corporate profitability and credibility.
Essay 3, titled "Supply Chain Finance: An Advanced Weighted Cash Conversion Cycle", advances the accuracy of CCC_EVA by differentiating between cash and credit forms of corporate sales and purchase transactions, and introducing operational cash flow into CCC_EVA. The advanced metric allows differences in inventory carrying cost and capital costs to be sources of the economic value added (EVA). Within a longitudinal case-based approach, the results show that the advanced metric is a potential decision tool to leverage on supply chain diversity and capitalize on its relation dynamics. Specifically, the implantation of the advanced metric can minimize the overall SC weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and its inventory carry cost (ICC); boost EVA of SC activities; and hedge liquidity risk.
This three-essay dissertation has addressed the academic skepticism about CCC_D‘s commensurability by developing an advanced weighted metric (CCC_EVA) that accounts for capital intensity and financing cost. The three essays provide evidence of CCC_EVA testability and its adequacy of presenting corporate financial performance. The findings of this dissertation contribute to both industry and academia. Industry practitioners can implement CCC_EVA as a strategic decision instrument to balance SC liquidity distribution and resilience; hedge default risk of hidden deep-tier SC partners; increase overall SC profitability and creditability; boost equity value; and reveal existing opportunities of SC's EVA sources. Academically, these three essays initiate a fundamental and much-needed step for scholars to advance a systematically published metric, which can contribute to the implications, innovations, and knowledge of the SCF domain.
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Nagamine, Akamine Javier. "Boom-bust cycles and the credit channel in Peru." Diss., Restricted to subscribing institutions, 2009. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1835499361&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=1564&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Antonakakis, Nikolaos, Max Breitenlechner, and Johann Scharler. "Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Spillovers in the G7 Countries." Elsevier, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2015.03.002.
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In this study we examine the dynamic interactions between credit growth and output growth using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Based on quarterly data on credit growth and GDP growth over the period 1957Q1
-2012Q4 for the G7 countries we find that: (i) spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth evolve rather heterogeneously over time and across countries, and increase during extreme economic events. (ii) Spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth are of bidirectional nature, indicating bidirectional spillovers of shocks between the financial and the real sector. (iii) In the period shortly before and during the global financial crisis, the link between credit growth and GDP growth becomes more pronounced. In particular, the financial sector plays a dominant role during the early stages of the crisis, while the real sector quickly takes over as the dominant source of spillovers. (iv) Interestingly, credit growth in the US is the dominant transmitter of shocks to the G7 countries, and especially to other G7 countries' real sectors in the run up period to (and during) the global financial crisis. Overall, our results suggest that the magnitude and direction of spillovers between financial cycles and business cycles vary over time along with changes in the economic environment in the G7 countries. (authors' abstract)
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Ibrahim, Elgahry Baher. "La synchronisation des cycles économiques entre pays avancés et pays émergents : couplage ou découplage ?" Thesis, Le Havre, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014LEHA0015/document.
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AL’objectif de cette thèse est de tester la corrélation des cycles économiques entre les pays développés et les pays émergents, et de déterminer, en outre, l’importance relative des mécanismes causaux de la synchronisation/désynchronisation cyclique entre ces deux groupes de pays. Il s’agit notamment d’examiner comment les phases cycliques qui secouent les pays avancés se transmettent aux pays émergents. En étudiant les relations économiques entre les pays avancés et les pays émergents, nos résultats montrent qu’il existe une synchronisation cyclique entre les deux groupes de pays, mais aussi, en même temps, un découplage partiel des cycles conjoncturels entre un nombre limité de ces deux groupes de pays, notamment l’Inde et la Chine. Les circuits commerciaux et les canaux financiers sont les déterminants principaux de la synchronisation cyclique entre les pays développés et les pays émergents, en tenant compte d’une importance relative des facteurs financiers. Ce résultat nous a amené à analyser plus en profondeur les aspects financiers. Ainsi, on a étudié, en premier lieu, l’indice des turbulences financières. On observe qu’il existe une forte corrélation entre les troubles financiers des pays avancés et ceux des pays émergents. On a également testé, en second lieu, la synchronisation cyclique sous les différents régimes de change. On constate que les économies émergentes qui adoptent un régime de change intermédiaire sont les plus synchronisées, parce qu’il existe un lien entre corrélation cyclique et comportement des réserves de change. Ces dernières arrivent à leur pic dans un régime de change intermédiaire, ce qui est probablement dû aux relations intenses avec l’Europe et les Etats-Unis qui atteignent leur plus haut niveau sous un système intermédiaire de changesThe aim of this thesis is to analyze business cycles correlation between developed and emerging countries, and to determine the relative importance of causal mechanisms of synchronization/desynchronization between these two groups of countries. The business cycles across countries: divergence or convergence? How cyclical phases that shake the developed countries are transmitted to emerging countries ? By examining the economic relations between advanced and emerging countries, our results show that there is business cycles synchronization between the two groups of countries, but also at the same time, a partial decoupling of business cycles between a limited number of these two groups of countries, particularly India and China. Trade integration and financial channels are the main determinants of cyclical synchronization between developed countries and emerging economies, with a relative importance of the financial factors. This result led us to analyze, further, the financial aspects. Thus, we studied in the first place, the financial stress index. It is observed that there is a strong correlation between financial turmoil of developed countries and emerging countries. It was tested, in the second place, the cyclical synchronization under different exchange rate regimes. It appears that emerging economies that adopt an intermediate exchange rate regime are more synchronized because there is a link between their cyclical correlation and their international reserves behavior. These arrive at their peak under an intermediate exchange rate regime, probably due to the intense relations with Europe and the United States, which reach their highest level under an intermediate exchange rate system
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Bécard, Yvan. "Banks and business cycles." Thesis, Paris 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA01E009.
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La question centrale qui chapeaute cette thèse est : quelle sont les sources des fluctuations économiques ? De nombreux articles mettent en évidence le rôle majeur des facteurs et chocs financiers. A partir de ce postulat, j'analyse la capacité des modèles macroéconomiques dynamiques à reproduire les co-mouvements observés dans les données entre la production, la consommation, l'investissement et l'emploi, suite à un choc financier. Le premier chapitre montre que les modèles standards n'arrivent pas à générer ces co-mouvements, car ils impliquent des mouvements opposés entre la consommation et l'investissement. Une solution est de modéliser des banques qui prêtent à la fois aux entreprises et aux ménages, puis de considérer le choc financier comme un resserrement simultané des contraintes de crédit des deux types d'emprunteurs. Le second chapitre est une évaluation quantitative de cette idée. Avec David Gauthier, nous estimons un riche modèle macroéconomique sur données américaines à l'aide de méthodes bayésiennes. Nous motivons notre choc de collatéral par l'observation que les banques américaines ajustent les conditions de crédit de manière similaire pour les firmes et les ménages. Nous trouvons que le choc de collatéral explique une large partie des fluctuations économiques, car il est capable de générer les co-mouvements. Le troisième chapitre est l'étape suivante. Je souhaite endogénéiser les conditions de prêts bancaires. L'idée est de reproduire la récession de 2008, au cours de laquelle un choc dans le marché immobilier affectant initialement les ménages a été transmis au reste de l'économie à travers les banques qui ont diminué le crédit alloué aux entreprisesThe main question at the heart of this thesis is, what drives business cycle fluctuations? A growing body of evidence suggests that financial factors and shocks matter most. Based on this premise, I ask whether financial shocks in dynamic macroeconomic models can generate the positive co-movements in output, consumption, investment, and hours worked observed in the data. The first chapter shows that standard models fail in doing so, because they typically imply a countercyclical response of consumption. One solution is to have banks lend both to firms and households, and to assume, that the financial shock is a common credit tightening on both. The second chapter offers a quantitative analysis of this idea. Together with David Gauthier, we motivate what we call the collateral shock by documenting that banks in the US effectively adjust standards in a similar way regard less if the borrower is a firm or a household. We estimate a rich macroeconomic model with Bayesian methods on US financial and macro data over the 1985-2015 period. We find that the collateral shock is the main driver of economic fluctuations. The reason is the collateral shock is able to generate pro cyclical consumption, investment, hours, and credit to firms and households, which are features of US business cycles. The third chapter attempts to go a step further by making lending standards endogenous. The idea is to have banks act as a propagation channel. A shock that emerges in the housing market and that initially affects households is transmitted to firms by a panic-prone financial sector that tightens credit to businesses. This model would replicate the story of the 2008 recession in the United States
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Mottet, Stéphane. "L'accélerateur financier : fondements théoriques et vérifications empiriques." Orléans, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000ORLE0501.
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Cette these tente d'evaluer la pertinence theorique et empirique du phenomene << d'accelerateur financier >>. Les interrogations concernant l'amplitude des cycles economiques ne sont pas nouvelles : leur explication par la theorie standard est, a bien des egards, peu satisfaisante. L'existence d'asymetries d'information permet de renouveler l'approche des cycles. En particulier, il est possible quela facilite a obtenir un financement depende de la solvabilite financiere (de la richesse nette) de l'emprunteur : quand la richesse nette de l'emprunteur est elevee, il peut se financer sans difficulte. Or cette richesse nette depend en grande partie de l'evolution de la conjoncture : en periode de recession, elle a tendance a diminuer, ce qui a pour consequence de durcir les conditions de financement de l'emprunteur. Apres avoir presente les origines et les principaux resultats de cette theorie, notre these revient sur le role des banques, et la maniere dont elles peuvent attenuer, ou aggraver, les effets d'amplification des cycles. Nous presentons ensuite un modele original, qui essaie d'enrichir l'analyse theorique du phenomene, en conferant a la richesse nette (au sens de garantie), un caractere aleatoire. Ce caractere aleatoire peut avoir deux consequences : les firmes peuvent avoir du mal a trouver un financement, meme si elles detiennent des projets << sains >> ; et les banques peuvent, en ne s'interessant qu'a la garantie fournie par les firmes, se croire mieux couvertes contre le risque qu'elles ne le sont en realite. Dans un deuxieme temps, nous testons la validite empirique de ce phenomene dans le cas francais. Le dernier cycle que la france a connu, en particulier la recession de 1993, a eu une ampleur surprenante. Il est possible que l'accelerateur financier en soit en partie responsable. Pour verifier ce point, nous utilisons un echantillon de plus de 900 entreprises francaises. Nous pouvons ainsi tester le poids des contraintes financieres dans les fonctions d'investissement et de stockage des firmes. Il semble bien que des contraintes aient existe en 1993 : les variables financieres ont apparemment eu un effet significatif sur les decisions reelles des firmes.
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Xu, TengTeng. "Topics in credit, financial intermediation and international business cycles." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.609928.
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Owen, Andrew Peter. "Life cycle financial planning for UK investors." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.608618.
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Famy, George. "Forecasting Reurns to Pure Factors: A Study of Time Varying Risk Premia." restricted, 2006. http://etd.gsu.edu/theses/available/etd-04282006-162928/.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Georgia State University, 2006.Stephen D. Smith, committee chair; Jason Greene, James Owens, Alok Srivastava, committee members. Electronic text (132 p. : ill. (some co.)) : digital, PDF file. Description based on contents viewed July 12, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 91-97).
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Dunaway, Tarrah M. "Farm Financial Performance of Kentucky Farms." UKnowledge, 2013. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_etds/13.
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This study examines farm financial performance of Kentucky farms using Kentucky Farm Business Management data from 1998-2010. Logit models are used to estimate the likelihood of farm characteristics affecting whether financial ratios fall into critical zones or not. The results show that large farms in terms of total gross returns and total assets are less likely to experience repayment capacity problems. Total gross returns significantly affect all five financial measures. These findings will help farmers and lenders understand what factors influence farm financial performance. Profitability migration is tested to see if the migration probabilities differ across business cycles. Migration drift is also tested to determine if the Markov property of independence is violated. Results show substantial retention in return on equity (ROE) performance over time, and a tendency for trend-reversal if ROE changes occur. Results are compared to previous literature using ARMS data and Illinois FBFM.
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Zivanovic, Jelena. "Essays on Credit Markets and Business Cycles." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19356.
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Diese Arbeit befasst sich mit der Rolle der Unternehmenskreditfinanzierung für die Realwirtschaft. Im ersten Teil untersuche ich die Entwicklung der externen Finanzierungsprämien in den USA in Folge von ökonomischen Schocks und finde, dass die Prämie antizyklisch auf Angebots- und monetäre Schocks reagiert. Im zweiten Teil analysiere ich mit Hilfe eines DSGE-Modells, wie die Zusammenfassung aus Bankkreditfinanzierung und Anleihefinanzierung die Transmission von ökonomischen Schocks beeinflusst. Angenommen, dass große Unternehmen größtenteils Anleihenmärkte verwenden und kleine Unternehmen auf Bankkredite angewiesen sind, zeigt das Modell, dass die Zusammensetzung des Unternehmenskreditfinanzierung relevant für die Verbreitung von Schocks ist. Negative monetäre Schocks und Finanzschocks beeinträchtigen die Kreditvergabe von fragilen Banken, die in Folge die Bankkredite an kleine Unternehmen kürzen. Unternehmen, die auf Anleihenfinanzierung zurückgreifen können, können sich in Zeiten steigender Prämien über Unternehmensanleihen refinanzieren. Daher reduzieren diese Unternehmen nicht in so starken Ausmaß ihre Investitionen wie kleine Firmen. Als Folge davon, ist eine Volkswirtschaft, die nur auf Bankkredite angewiesen ist, stärker von Schocks betroffen als eine Volkswirtschaft mit sowohl Bank- als auch Anleihenfinanzierung. Abschließend wird das Modell verwendet, um eine Kombination konventioneller und unkoventioneller Geldpolitik sowie makroprudentieller Politik in einer Ökonomie mit segmentierten Kreditmärkten zu evaluieren. Es wird gezeigt, dass der optimale Politikmix die höchsten Wohlfahrtsgewinne in Folge von Finanzschocks erreicht.This thesis examines the role of corporate debt financing for the real economy. First, I study the conditional dynamics of the external finance premium using US data and find that the premium is countercyclical following supply and monetary policy shocks. Second, I analyze to which extent bank and bond financing affect the transmission of economic shocks in the context of a DSGE model. To the extent that large firms predominantly use capital market finance, whereas small firms rely on bank loans, the model predicts that the composition of corporate debt is relevant for the propagation of shocks. Contractionary monetary policy and financial shocks impair the ability of leveraged banks to provide loans, which adversely affects small firms. Bond financing dependent firms can nevertheless issue bonds in times of rising bond finance premia. These firms do not reduce their investments as strongly as bank financing dependent firms. As a consequence, the economy that relies only on bank credit is affected more by shocks than the economy with bank and bond finance. Finally, the model is used to evaluate the optimal mix of conventional, unconventional and macroprudential policies for segmented credit markets. I find that the optimal policy mix attains the highest welfare gains following financial shocks.
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Beeby, Michael Robert. "Housing in an equilibrium business cycle model." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/7927.
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Ghilardi, Matteo F. "Financial frictions, fiscal policy and business cycle dynamics." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.608350.
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This thesis examines the role of financial frictictions, capital regulation and fiscal policy in business cycle dynamics. It consists of three self-contained chapters. In the first chapter I develop a model with financial n:ictions on the supply and demand side of credit. I introduce a financial accelerator mechanism on the demand side of credit that can be implemented without the costly state verification approach. Moreover) using Bayesian methods I compare three models: a plain vanilla new Keynesian model, a model with banking frictions, and a model with banking and entrepreneurial frictions. I find that (i) there are substantial differences between the model with no financial frictions and the model with the banking sector in explaining non financial data, (ii) the model with the banking and entrepreneurial sector frictions outperforms the model with the banking sector friction in explaining financial data and (iii) the capital quality shock is a key driver of business cycle fluctuations, The second chapter develops an open-economy DSGE model with an optimizing banking sector to assess the role of capital flows, macro-financial linkages, and macroprudential policies in the Philippines. The key H:~sult is that macroprudential measures can usefully complement monetary policy. Countercyclical macroprudential polices can help reduce macroeconomic volatility and enhance welfare. The results also demonstrate the importance of capital flows and financial stability business cycle fluctuations as well as for supply side financial accelerator effects in the amplification and propagation of shocks. The last chapter introduces in an otherwise standard real business cycle model a more general and data coherent class of production functions, namely a constant elasticity of substitution production function. I show that the degree of substitutability between production factors is a key ingredient to understand the (de)stabilising properties of a balanced-budget rule. Then I calibrate the model consistently with the empirical evidence, i.e. we set the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital below unity. I show that compared to the Cobb-Douglas case, the likelihood of indeterminacy under a balanced-budget rule is greatly reduced.
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Stanca, Luca. "Business cycle asymmetries and the financial propagation mechanism." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1999. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1506/.
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This dissertation presents the results of an investigation into the nature and causes of aggregate economic fluctuations. It comprises four essays, analysing the following topics: - Chapter 1 investigates the main features of business cycles in Italy in historical perspective (1861-1995). The essay reconsiders the assumption that business cycles are all alike, complementing the search for time domain regularities with a classical analysis of individual cycles and phases. It also provides formal tests, for ten industrialized countries, of various aspects of the representative cycle hypothesis. The results show that there is substantial heterogeneity in individual cycles and phases in terms of duration, amplitude, and co-movements between variables, and that such heterogeneity is generally statistically significant. - Chapter 2 reports the results of an empirical investigation of business cycle asymmetries in the Italian economy. Macroeconomic time series, both long run annual and post-war quarterly, are investigated to test for the presence of non-linearity and cyclical asymmetry. The dynamics of recessions and expansions are then modelled with threshold autoregressive and Markov-switching models. The essay shows that allowing for two regimes can be sufficient to account for the finding of neglected non-linearity, and concludes that business cycle asymmetries provide both an intuitive economic interpretation and a parsimonious representation of non-linearities in macroeconomic time series. - Chapter 3 applies models of explicit distribution dynamics to company account data for a panel of U.S. manufacturing firms, to investigate the dynamics of the cross-section distribution of firms' financial positions and its interactions with aggregate activity. The dynamics of different parts of the leverage distribution are found to contain significant predictive information for aggregate investment growth. The distribution dynamics reveal substantial intra-distribution mobility, although there is little evidence of significant interactions with aggregate economic activity. Intra-distribution mobility is higher for small than for large firms, and displays asymmetric patterns across business cycle phases. - Chapter 4 investigates the dynamic interaction between financial conditions and investment decisions by estimating and testing vector autoregressions on company account panel data for U.S. manufacturing firms. The results show that indicators of liquidity and solvency contain significant predictive information for investment at firm level. There is also evidence of both sectional and time heterogeneity: the role played by financial factors is significantly more important for highly leveraged than for low-debt firms; capital market frictions are shown to have asymmetric effects, displaying a larger impact in contractions than in expansions. Overall, the evidence supports the hypothesis that capital market imperfections have an important role in explaining aggregate cyclical dynamics.
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Kapp, Konrad Phillip. "Optimal cycle dating of large financial time series." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/17767.
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The study of cycles in the context of economic time series has been active for many decades, if not centuries; however, it was only in recent decades that more formal approaches for identifying cycles have been developed. Litvine and Bismans (2015) proposed a new approach for dating cycles in financial time series, for purposes of optimising buysell strategies. In this approach, cycle dating is presented as an optimisation problem. They also introduced a method for optimising this problem, known as the hierarchical method (using full evaluation 2, or HR-FE2). However, this method may be impractical for large data sets as it may require unacceptably long computation time. In this study, new procedures that date cycles using the approach proposed by Litvine and Bismans (2015), were introduced, and were speciffically developed to be feasible for large time series data sets. These procedures are the stochastic generation and adaptation (SGA), buy-sell adapted Extrema importance identity sequence retrieval (BSA-EIISR) and buysell adapted bottom-up (BSA-BU) methods. An existing optimisation technique, known as particle swarm optimisation (PSO), was also employed. A statistical comparison was then made between these methods, including HR-FE2. This involved evaluating, on simulated data, the performance of the algorithms in terms of objective function value and computation time on different time series lengths, Hurst exponent, and number of buy-sell points. The SRace methodology (T. Zhang, Georgiopoulos, and Anagnostopoulos 2013) was then applied to these results in order to determine the most effcient methods. It was determined that, statistically, SGA, BSA-EIISR and BSA-BU are the most effcient methods. Number of buysell points was found to have the largest effect on relative performance of these methods. In some cases, the Hurst exponent also has a small effect on relative performance.
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Gerba, Eddie. "Financial cycles and macroeconomic stability." Thesis, University of Kent, 2014. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.633646.
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We establish a set of US stylized facts on prices, quantities and balance sheets, assess the consistency of the current generation of financial DSGE models to these, and provide guidance on the challenges ahead. We mainly find four aspects which future financial friction models should take into acc~unt. The first is the profound shift in household financing structure, botli on the asset and liability side, which has meant that they have been left vulnerable. Second, the balance sheet of firms has become increasingly lever aged and coupled with more volatile and pro cyclical equity prices has rrieant that the balance sheet of firms has become ihcreasirlgly procyclical and volatile since the 1990's. The current generation of FA models do capture some aspects of this but produce excessively smooth results. Third, it would be of interest for policy makers to find the optimal level/percentage of foreign ownership of the Federal debt at which the debt portfolio is diversified, but the future government budget constraint and its stabilisation capacity is not put in danger by over-exposure to international shocks. Lastly, models might be extended to include a regime-switching mechanism and explore the effects on model dynamics and model stability when the economy goes from a low volatility-low correlation state to a high volatility-high correlation state. A wider implication of our findings is that accumulation of stocks might alter agents risk preferences, production technologies, or beliefs to such a degi'ee that the optimization problem that those agents face has transformed over time .. The economy is effectively in a different state of nature, and agents may face c;lifferent constraints. Future macroeconomic models need to take a different strategy to modelingthe long-run ratios, since these have increased over the long-run, and .this has had an effect on boththe frequency and the amplitude of the business cycles. Chapter 2 Following recent observations by policymakers of the Bank of England and others that low financial market confidence and pessimistic expectations about bank (and non-bank fii'm) profits over the next three years has lead to unusually low price-to-book ratios, we incorporate a market price mechanism in a general equilibrium framework. More specifically, we introduce an endogenous wedge between inarket and book value of capital, and make investment a function of the wedge in a standard financia1 accelerator model. The price wedge is driven by an information set containing expectations about the future state of the economy. The result is that the impulse responses to exogenous disturbances are some two to three times more volatile than in the benchmark financial accelerator model. Moreover, the model offers an improved matching in firm variables and financial rates to US data compared to the standard Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) model. We also derive a model based quadratic, loss function and measure the extent to which \ monetary policy can feed a bubble by further loosening the credit market frictions that entrepreneurs face. In addition, we take into account the possibility that policymakers have incomplete information about the current state of. the economy and therefore make errors type I and II in deciding what policy to implement. A policy that explicitly targets stock market developments can be shown to improve welfare in terms of miriimizing the consumption losses of consumers, even when we account for a degree of incomplete information of central bankers regarding the current state of the economy. To conclude, we find that for a monetary authority to be indifferent betweeri responding and not responding to stock market developments, the probability of an economy with a positive asset price wedge needs to be between 2 and 6 percent lower than the probability of an economy without a wedge. Chapter 3 Locating the appropriate degree of interaCtion between fiscal and monetary policy . plays remains a key issue in ensuring economic stability. Their joint impact is, however, still unclear. We use a Bayesian TVP-VAR model with a tight identification scheme to examine the interaction between the two policies between 1979 and 2013. We observe significant differences in the transrriission of shocks, in particular between the Great Recession and the Great Moderation. Monetary policy reacts more aggressively to stabilize the economy during Volcker, whereas fiscal policy does so during the Great Recession. Second, we find a high degree of interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. They behave as substitutes for both the spending and monetary policy shocks but as compliments for a taX, shock. Third, government revenues largely infhience decisions on spending, while spending does not influence tax decisions. Fourth, the spending multiplier is large and persistent, in particular during recessionary periods. We conclude that the spending stimuli are more effective in expanding output than tax cuts by as much as ?O percent. Under certain conditions regarding private agent expectations, spending increases can result in high and persistent growth.
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Zhang, Yu. "Three Essays on Household Life-Cycle Investment Decisions." The Ohio State University, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1532090430374447.
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ERRAIS, HENCHIRI OLFA. "Endettement et surendettement des entreprises en france : une analyse des evolutions et des evolutions et des ajustements a moyen terme." Lille 2, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000LIL20028.
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L'objectif general de cette etude est d'analyser, de caracteriser et d'expliquer dans un premier temps le comportement financier des entreprises francaises << sur-endettees >>, puis dans un second temps celui des entreprises francaises en general. Un survol des travaux conceptuels et empiriques dedies au financement des entreprises permet de situer les divers cadres conceptuels proposes autour des notions de << sur♭ endettement >> et de ratio-cible de levier financier. Le second chapitre analyse le comportement des entreprises francaises << surendettees >> sur la periode 1989-1996. Cette partie met en evidence le comportement cyclique en matiere d'endettement des entreprises << sur-endettees >>. Ces cycles sont motives par deux considerations. Ainsi, une entreprise peut s'endetter soit pour financer une operation de croissance externe soit pour palier a une degradation de sa rentabilite. L'etude des donnees individuelles d'entreprises entre 1987 et 1996 montre que leur evolution en terme d'endettement est globalement significative et qu'elle est, elle aussi, cyclique. Ce mouvement cyclique s'explique en partie par l'evolution generale de l'economie influencee par la conjoncture economique. L'autre partie qui concerne une part specifique a pour origine soit un besoin de croissance externe, soit une degradation de la rentabilite. Finalement, ces cycles d'endettement sont expliques non pas par des cibles d'endettement fluctuantes, mais plutot par des ecarts transitoires par rapport au ratio-cible d'endettement dus au financement des operations de croissance externe ou a la degradation de la rentabilite des entreprises.
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Mendicino, Caterina. "Financial market imperfections, business cycle fluctuations and economic growth." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Economic Research Institute (EFI), Stockholm School of Economics, 2006. http://www2.hhs.se/EFI/summary/705.htm.
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Kleemann, Michael. "Empirical essays on business cycle analysis and financial constraints." Diss., Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-177273.
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This dissertation comprises three distinct economic stduies. The first deals with the origin of business cycle fluctuations and the other two with the measurement of financial constraints and the identification of the respective treatment effect.
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Yan, Jingsi. "Asset liability management throughout macroeconomic cycle in financial institutions." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/80669.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 40).
In this thesis, we are going to study asset liability management throughout the macroeconomic cycle in financial institutions. There are two important problems in financial institutions. The first is that asset and liability management has significant effects on the financial institution's value. The second is that in different stages of the macroeconomic cycle, the effect of asset and liability management approaches is not same. Therefore, the purpose of the thesis is to study how asset liability management causes economic consequences for financial institutions and in what capacity. In this thesis, based on the analysis of asset liability management and the economic cycle, we establish a dynamic system to simulate how a financial institution makes decision throughout economic cycles. In order to simulate the system, we established a model to reflect how the economic cycle affects the financial institution's value by using the economic relationship and we built up the decision making progress. Then we simulate the system through Matlab. From the simulation results, we can observe the changes of system in the given time horizon.
by Jingsi Yan.
S.M.
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J, Hawkins Raymond, and Hengyu Kuang. "Lending Sociodynamics and Drivers of the Financial Business Cycle." AMER INST MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES-AIMS, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/626093.
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We extend sociodynamic modeling of the financial business cycle to the Euro Area and Japan. Using an opinion-formation model and machine learning techniques we find stable model estimation of the financial business cycle using central bank lending surveys and a few selected macroeconomic variables. We find that banks have asymmetric response to good and bad economic information, and that banks adapt to their peers' opinions when changing lending policies.
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Oman, William. "Essays on the financial cycle and macroeconomics : measuring macrofinancial pro-cyclicality." Thesis, Paris 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA01E012.
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Cette thèse étudie le rôle du cycle financier dans la macroéconomie. Le chapitre 1 étudie le synchronisme des cycles conjoncturels et des cycles financiers en zone euro. Le chapitre 2 propose une nouvelle mesure de l’écart de production corrigé des facteurs financiers. Le chapitre 3 propose un indicateur simple et intuitif pour quantifier la procyclicité de la politique budgétaire en fonction d’estimations de l’écart de production et du solde budgétaire primaire corrigé des variations conjoncturelles. La thèse montre que la prise en compte du cycle financier permet d’éclairer l’analyse des fluctuations macrofinancières. L’un des résultats clés est que la Grèce, l’Irlande et l’Espagne ont connu un cycle de macrofinancier boombust commun dans les années 2000. Les éléments empiriques présentés dans les trois chapitres de cette thèse ont des implications pour les principaux domaines de la politique macroéconomique : la politique monétaire (les politiques macroprudentielles et monétaires doivent être coordonnées), la politique budgétaire (la procyclicité de la politique budgétaire peut être réduite en tenant compte du cycle financier dans l’estimation du solde budgétaire structurel), et la politique financière (les politiques de stabilité financière peuvent compléter les politiques budgétaires et monétaires dans leur fonction de stabilisation du cycle)This dissertation studies the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics. Chapter 1 studies the synchronization of business cycles and financial cycles in the euro area. Chapter 2 proposes a new, financeadjusted measure of the output gap. Chapter 3 proposes a simple and intuitive indicator to quantify the procyclicality of fiscal policy based on output gap and cyclicallyadjusted primary fiscal balance estimates. The dissertation shows that taking account of the financial cycle can help inform the analysis of macrofinancial fluctuations. A key finding is that Greece, Ireland and Spain experienced a common macrofinancial boombust cycle in the 2000s. The evidence in the three chapters of this dissertation has implications for the main areas of macroeconomic policy: monetary policy (macroprudential and monetary policies should be coordinated), fiscal policy (fiscal policy pro-cyclicality can be reduced by taking account of the financial cycle in estimating structural fiscal balances), and financial policy (financial stability policies can complement fiscal and monetary policies in stabilizing the cycle)
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Ligonnière, Samuel. "Financial cycles : determinants and policy implications." Thesis, Lille, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018LIL1A002.
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Cette thèse analyse les déterminants et les conséquences des cycles financiers, afin d’en fournir des recommandations de politique économique. Ce terme relativement nouveau invoque aussi bien le comportement pro-cyclique des agents financiers que le cycle de différentes variables, tels que le crédit, et les marchés boursiers et immobiliers. Cette définition permet de dissocier le cycle financier national de l’international. Dans un premier temps, cette thèse propose de nouveaux déterminants aux cycles financiers nationaux. Je mets en avant le rôle primordial de la structure de la dette en termes de maturité. A travers une analyse flux-stock, je démontre que la dynamique de la dette suit généralement une tendance sous-optimale, tantôt trop axée sur les dettes de court-terme, tantôt trop tournée vers le long-terme. Cette thèse propose aussi un deuxième nouveau déterminant de ces cycles financiers, à savoir l’évolution des inégalités. J’en tire trois prédictions théoriques, qui se vérifient dans mon analyse économétrique : i) la hausse des inégalités conduit à une augmentation du crédit aux ménages au niveau agrégé ; ii) l’essentiel de ce lien de causalité est tiré par le rôle clé des classes moyennes ; iii) ce lien de causalité positif existe si et seulement si le pays est suffisamment développé. Dans un deuxième temps, j’analyse les conséquences du cycle financier global, conduit principalement par la politique monétaire américaine. Je démontre que l’exposition domestique aux forces étrangères, en particulier via la présence de banques globales, réduit l’autonomie de la politique monétaire, mais que ce cycle ne change pas la nature du triangle d’incompatibilité de MundellThis thesis focuses on the determinants and policy implications of financial cycles. This term is fairly new and in line with the conventional logic of business cycles. It involves the boom-bust cycle in credit, equity and housing markets as well as the procyclical behavior of agents. This general definition allows us to distinguish the national financial cycles from the international ones exclusively through the level of integration to the international financial system, with close transmission channels. On the one hand, this brings up questions about their various determinants. I consider debt maturity structure as potential determinant. By using a stock-flow analysis, I find that the mix of these debts chosen by the agent follows a suboptimal path. Financial crises could be triggered by excessive reliance on either short-term or long-term debt. This thesis also exhibits the role of income inequality as key factor of these national financial cycles. Three main predictions are supported by an empirical analysis: i), an increase in inequality leads to an expansion on household credit at the aggregate level; ii) the bulk of the positive impact of inequality on household credit is driven by middle classes; iii) the positive causal link from inequality to household credit exists if and only if the country is sufficiently developed. On the other hand, I will also debate the consequences and policy implications of the global financial cycle, led primarily by US monetary policy. This exposure to foreign forces reduces the scope of domestic monetary policy, but the Mundellian trilemma does not morph into a dilemma
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Silva, Vitor Hugo Crespo da. "Working capital management and financial constraints in Europe within different economic cycles." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16654.
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Mestrado em Contabilidade, Fiscalidade e Finanças EmpresariaisO Fundo de Maneio Necessário (WCM) tem vindo a ganhar uma crescente importância ao longo dos anos, nos pontos de foco das estratégias das empresas. Especialmente, quando se considera a mais recente crise financeira e a sua principal consequência, a redução de liquidez providenciada pelas fontes de financiamento. Neste sentido, procuramos entender a relação entre o WCM e a performance das empresas não cotadas, medido através da Rendibilidade dos Capitais Próprios, considerando também a presença de constrangimentos de financiamento e a canalização de investimento entre activos alternativos. Usando uma amostra de 135.005 observações empresa-ano, aproximadamente 19.814 empresas de 25 países da União Europeia cobrindo o período de 2008-2017. Os nossos resultados mostram que empresas com maiores montantes de financiamento dedicados a Working Capital (WC) afectam negativamente a sua performance. De salientar que, as empresas que sintam maior pressão em obter liquidez internamente sofrem mais com pequenas alterações no investimento de WC. Concluímos também que, em períodos de crise, empresas com menores recursos que sejam possíveis ser usados como colateral apresentam maior risco de prejudicar a sua rendibilidade ao aumentarem os montantes dedicados a WC. Finalmente, em períodos de crise, o efeito negativo na performance proveniente de investir em WC, enquanto financiam também outros activos, é atenuado devido à diminuição de oportunidades de investimento nestes últimos.
Working Capital Management (WCM) elevated its importance throughout the years in the companies strategies focus. Specially, when considering the recent financial crisis and its main consequence: the reduction of liquidity provided by financing sources. In this sense, this paper examines the relation between WCM and unlisted firms corporate performance, measured by Return on Equity, while considering the presence of financial constraints and the channeling of investment between alternative assets. Using a sample of 135.005 unlisted firm-year observations, approximately 19.814 firms from 25 countries of the European Union over the period of 2008-2017. We show that firms with greater amounts of financing reserved to Working Capital (WC) affect negatively their performance. Importantly, when considering firms which are more distressed in the availability of internal finance, will suffer more the impact on their profitability derived by smaller changes in the investment in WC. We also exhibit that, in periods of crisis, firms with lower resources to use as collateral have more risk of harming their performance by increasing the amount of financing dedicated to WC. Finally, in periods of crisis, the negative effect on performance of investing in WC while having cash tied in other assets is diminished due to the tightening of investment opportunities in the latter assets.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Ben, Mohamed Imen. "Credit market imperfections and business cycles." Thesis, Paris 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA010002/document.
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La crise financière de 2009 a ravivé le débat entre les classiques et les keynésiens concernant le rôle de la finance dans le cycle d’affaire. Cette thèse étudie les conséquences macroéconomiques des imperfections du marché de crédit ainsi que quantifie leur impact sur le marché de travail. L’interaction entre chômage et frictions financière passe par l’hypothèse que les postes vacants sont financés par des fonds externes qui sont plus couteux qu’un financement interne, de par de l’impact de l’asymétrie d’information sur le marché du crédit. Il est alors montré, à l’aide de simulation d’un modèle DSGE calibré sur données US., qu’un choc financier négatif, i.e. un choc qui augmente la prime de risque sur le marché du crédit ou un choc qui détériore le bilan des entrepreneurs, réduit de manière significative les capacités d’emprunt, et, par conséquent, la création d’emplois diminue spécialement. En outre, un choc d'incertitude engendre une augmentation du taux de chômage et rend cette augmentation plus persistante en période de crise. Ce résultat est confirmé par une évidence empirique qui consistait à estimer un modèle VAR bayésien, où des variables de marché de travail réelles et financièresThe crisis of 2009 raised the question whether the financial conditions matter for the business cycles and the propagation of shocks originating in the financial sphere. I tried to drive a fine analysis of this issue using micro-founded general equilibrium models. The modelling choice was backed by empirical motivations. In three essays, i study the impact of monetary and financial shocks on growth and labour market dynamics. First, an expansionary monetary policy eases credit conditions, raises risk tolerance and the quality of borrowers and generates a liquidity effect. The potency of the monetary policy and the size of the credit channel depend considerably on the degree of financial frictions in the credit market. Second, a restrictive monetary policy shock, an positive credit shock and a positive uncertainty shocks have similar effects on the economy: they plunge the economy in a recession, with output, job creations, and hours worked decreasing, while unemployment and job destructions increase. In all cases the interest rate spread increase, therefore indicating that financial conditions deteriorate, which is interpreted as a sign that financial frictions play a critical role in the propagation of these shocks. Third, the interaction between financial and labour market frictions does exist. The interplay between the two indeed plays a role in propagating the shocks. A shock to net worth, a credit shock and an uncertainty shock play a non-trivial role for the dynamics on the labour market
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Ardiles, Morales Sebastian Alonso. "Calidad de cartera: provisiones y ciclos económicos en América Latina." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/652563.
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En los últimos años han existido fluctuaciones cotidianas dentro del sistema financiero latinoamericano, con excepción de la crisis del 2008, que demuestra como la economía se comporta luego de una situación particular como es una recesión mundial a gran escala. Cabe resaltar que pueden ocurrir eventos no comunes que pueden desembocar en una crisis económica. A partir de esto nace la curiosidad de investigar una variable que permita ser medida como un soporte para el sector financiero para mitigar una futura recesión económica en los países.
Este documento investiga de qué forma el riesgo crediticio a través de las provisiones bancarias afecta el ciclo económico y los créditos bancarios. La evidencia empírica señala que el indicador de calidad de cartera total del sistema bancario impacta a las variables como créditos, PBI y tasa de interés principalmente. Se estima un modelo de panel de Vectores Autorregresivos para una muestra equilibrada de 4 países de Latinoamérica (Chile, Colombia, México y Perú) para el periodo 2005-2019.
Se utilizan las variables tasa de interés, créditos bancarios, la inflación, brecha producto, así como las provisiones como parte de la calidad de cartera del sistema bancario. Se encuentra que la calidad de cartera en los cuatro países de Latinoamérica impacta negativamente los ciclos económicos y los préstamos bancarios con el soporte de un análisis estadístico y revisión de conceptos económicos, el cual aplicado un marco macroeconómico que incluye al sector bancario y la variable de calidad de cartera considerando el nivel de provisiones como un factor para medir el riesgo crediticio.In recent years there have been daily fluctuations inside the Latin American financial system, with the exception of the 2008 crisis, which shows how the economy behaves after a particular situation such as a large-scale global recession. It should be noted that unusual events can occur that can lead to an economic crisis. About this situations, the initiative arises to investigate a variable that allows measuring it as a support for the financial sector to mitigate a future economic recession in the countries. This document investigates how credit risk through bank provisions affects the economic cycle and bank loans. The empirical evidence indicates that the indicator of quality of the total portfolio of the banking system impacts variables such as loans, GDP and interest rate mainly. A panel model of Autoregressive Vectors is estimated for a balanced sample of 4 Latin American countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) for the period 2005-2019. The variables interest rate, bank loans, inflation, output gap, as well as provisions are used as part of the portfolio quality of the banking system. It shows that portfolio quality in the four Latin American countries negatively impacts business cycles and bank loans with the support of a statistical analysis and review of economic concepts, which applied a macroeconomic framework that includes the banking sector and the variable of portfolio quality considering the level of provisions as a factor to measure credit risk.
Trabajo de investigación
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Kundisch, Dennis. "New strategies for financial services firms : the life-cycle-solution approach /." Heidelberg : Physica-Verl, 2003. http://opac.nebis.ch/cgi-bin/showAbstract.pl?u20=379080066X.
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Costa, Bárbara Reis da. "Cash conversion cycle across industries." Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/11731.
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and EconomicsThe purpose of this research is to assess whether Cash Conversion Cycle differs between industries via their components, namely Days Inventory Outstanding, Days Sales Outstanding and Days Payables Outstanding. Based on a sample of multinational companies from two different industries, Fast Moving Consumer Goods and Airline industry for the period 2009-2012, the results suggest that Cash Conversion Cycle differs between industries. Also it differs between large and smaller companies due to different accounting choices. It contributes to a better understanding about how size of the firm, inventory system, liquidity and payables impact on CCC and consequently on companies’ profitability.
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Monteiro, Ornella Lassalette. "Comparison of the financial cycle in advanced and emerging economies." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-262237.
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This dissertation argues that financial cycles are different for advanced economies and emerging countries. The main underlying reason is the different financial development that makes for instability in emeging markets which is pronounced by more intensive and amplified financial cycle. As such, even the policy implications are different.
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Majetti, Reynald. "Analyse du cycle économique. Datation et prévision." Thesis, Université de Lorraine, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013LORR0249.
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La « Grande Récession » de 2008-2009 ou encore l'aggravation de la crise des dettes souveraines et de la dette publique dans la zone euro à l'été 2011, constituent de récents événements qui ont cristallisé les enjeux de l'analyse conjoncturelle, ceux relatifs notamment à la datation et à la prévision des inflexions cycliques de l'activité réelle. L'objet de cette thèse s'inscrit fondamentalement au sein de ces deux approches complémentaires du cycle économique.Le chapitre 1 dresse un portrait du cycle autour de trois conceptions distinctes de ses points de retournement : le cycle classique, le cycle de croissance et le cycle d'accélération. Nous discutons également de sa mesure eu égard aux diverses représentations possibles de l'activité agrégée d'un pays, ainsi qu'aux deux traditions existantes dans lesquelles s'inscrivent les modèles de datation. Nous mettons par ailleurs en lumière l'influence grandissante de l'environnement financier sur la dynamique cyclique des économies. Le chapitre 2 nous amène à développer deux algorithmes non-paramétriques dans le but de repérer les inflexions propres à chacun des cycles auparavant conceptualisés, mais aussipour en mesurer leurs principales caractéristiques. Le premier (resp. le second) algorithme repose sur une représentation univariée (resp. multivariée) de l'activité économique globale ; in fine, nous les appliquons aux données de la conjoncture française entre 1970 et 2010. Le chapitre 3 tire parti de nos résultats en matière de datation conjoncturelle afin de prévoir les récessions françaises depuis 1974. Au moyen de modèles probits, nous illustrons le rôle de variables financières et monétaires en tant qu'indicateurs avancés des fluctuations du cycle des affaires français. Nous montrons de plus que nos modèles prédictifs assurent uneparfaite détection des récessions pour un horizon égal à deux trimestres.Le chapitre 4 prolonge l'ensemble de l'analyse à plusieurs États membres de la zoneeuro, ces derniers étant observés depuis 1979. Nous construisons d'abord une chronologie de leurs cycles classiques respectifs puis, nous proposons un examen de leurs caractéristiques moyennes et de leur degré de synchronisation. Enfin, en s'appuyant sur des indicateurs financiers et monétaires dans le cadre d'un probit dynamique à effets fixes, nous parvenons à anticiper - jusqu'à un horizon de deux trimestres - les épisodes récessifs survenus dans les économies considéréesThe « Great Recession » of 2008-2009 and the sovereign and public debt crises which strengthened in the euro area in the summer of 2011 are recent events that have crystallized the challenges facing economic analysis, especially those related to dating and predicting cyclical inflections of real activity. The purpose of this thesis is to study these two complementary approaches to the economic cycle. Chapter 1 provides a portrait of the cycle using three distinct conceptions of its turning points: the classical cycle, the growth cycle and the acceleration cycle. We also discuss the measurement of the cycle with respect to various possible representations of aggregate activity of a country, as well as to two existing traditions which encompass dating models. Moreover, we highlight the growing influence of the financial environment over business cycle fluctuations.In chapter 2, we develop two non-parametric algorithms in order to identify theinflections that are particular to each of the previously conceptualized cycles, but also to measure their main characteristics. The first algorithm is based on a univariate representation of overall economic activity, the second on its ultivariate representation; ultimately, we apply the algorithms to the data of the French economy between 1970 and 2010. Chapter 3 builds on our results for cyclical dating to predict French recessions since 1974. Using probit models, we illustrate the role of monetary and financial variables as leading indicators of French business cycle fluctuations. In addition, we show that our models accurately detect recessions for a forecasting lag of two-quarters. Chapter 4 extends the entire analysis to several member states of the euro zone, with observations beginning in 1979. We first construct a chronology of their classical cycles, and then we propose an analysis of their main characteristics and their degree of synchronization.Finally, based on financial and monetary indicators in the context of a dynamic probit with fixed effects, we can anticipate the recessionary episodes which occurred in these economies with a horizon of two quarters
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Dang, Tran Dong. "Intelligence financière et statistique zipfienne : deux outils au service de la prise de position des marchés financiers. Application au cas des entreprises vietnamiennes non financières." Thesis, Toulon, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015TOUL0003/document.
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Dans un contexte économique mondialisé, les prises de position d’achat et/ou de vente sur les marchés financiers obéissent à des logiques qui échappent parfois à la rationalité (bulle spéculative…). Les prévisionnistes et les analystes financiers mobilisent une boite à outil statistique pour connaître les tendances futures à partir de l’étude des tendances passées. Cette boite à outils repose sur l’hypothèse de normalité des lois statistiques sous jacentes ce qui autorise des logiques d’inférence statistique, de test, de corrélation... On a pu observer par le passé que les résultats de ces projections ont souvent été miss à défaut : la crise financière que nous traversons correspond par exemple à un choc difficilement prévisible même s’il fait l’objet d’une rationalisation a posteriori. Notre objectif, partant de ce constat, est de renouveler les approches traditionnelles des prévisionnistes et analystes financiers en mobilisant deux approches complémentaires : l’intelligence économique appliquée au domaine financier et l’utilisation de techniques modernes de gestion de l’imprévisible. Dans ce travail interdisciplinaire, notre approche s’inspire tout d’abord du concept d’image, de réputation d'une entreprise cible et de la démarche du cycle de renseignement issue de l’approche de l’intelligence économique. De plus, nous pouvons compléter notre démarche à travers les travaux de Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Nous mobilisons enfin le concept de force de situation (François Julien) pour renforcer la décision des investisseurs institutionnels en situation d’incertitude. Pour valider notre contribution théorique, nous avons choisi le Vietnam comme terrain de recherche. A partir d’une approche qualitative conduite auprès de gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens, nous avons pu connaître mieux leurs pratiques de prises de décisions, les critères d’évaluation d’investissement différents issus des analyses de matrices stratégiques, leur perception de la réputation et le rôle de l’intelligence financière dans leur processus d’investissement. Nous proposons alors une méthode qualitative reposant sur la réputation pour caractériser le degré de robustesse d’une organisation à des chocs et élaborons en outre un système de renseignement financier en prenant en compte la hiérarchie des critères d’évaluation d’investissement des gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens. Notre démarche est illustrée par l’étude de cas d'une entreprise aquacole VietnamienneIn the context of economic globalization, the stand point of purchase and/or sale on the financial market obeys logics which escape sometimes rationality (speculative bubbles…).The forecasters and the financial analysts mobilize one statistical toolbox in order to know the future trends based on the study of the last trends.This toolbox builds on the assumption of normality of the statistical laws underlying which authorizes logics of statistical inference, test, correlation… We could observe in the past which the results of these projections were often failed:the financial crisis which we pass correspondent to a not easily foreseeable shock even if it is the object of a rationalization a posteriori. Our objective,on the basis of thisreport,is to renew the traditional approaches of the forecasters and financial analysts by mobilizing two complementary approaches: business intelligence applied to the financial field and the utilization of modern technologies of management of the unforeseeable risks.In this interdisciplinary work,our approaches are inspired,first of all concept oftheimage or of the reputation of a target company and approach of the intelligence cycle resulting from the approach of the business intelligence.Moreover,we can complete our approach through the principle of bounded rationality,that of the speculative bubble and that of the logic uncertain suggested by Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Finally, we mobilize the concept of force of situation(François Julien) in order to reinforce the decision of the institutional investors in uncertain situation.To validate our theoretical contribution,we chose Viet Nam as our ground of research.From a qualitative approach and based on experimentation ahead 5 Vietnamese portfolio managers, we could better know their practice of making decision, their different investment evaluation criteria, their perception of reputation and the role of the financial intelligence in their process of investment. Thus, we propose a qualitative method based on the reputation in order to characterize the degree of robustness of an organization faced to shocks and elaborate moreover a system of financial information by taking into account the hierarchy of the investment evaluation criteria of the Vietnamese portfolio managers. Our approach is illustrated through a case study of a Vietnamese aquaculture company
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Lešková, Michaela. "Finančný cyklus a jeho indikátory." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-264318.
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Subject of the diploma thesis is a broad analysis of financial cycles that are often behind other financial topics and their clear and precise understanding is still not sufficient, despite their high significance, and indeed a critical issue for financial stability. The paper will discuss indicators of financial cycles, we can ask ourselves how each financial cycles, meaning equity, credit and real estate prices, are synchronized with each other, but also toward the economic cycle, and what consequences this synchronization brings looking at different scenarios. The turning point in the boom phase is often triggered by the financial crisis, so we look if it is possible to predict these breaks in time. We discuss the recommended adaptations of policies to the financial cycle and in the final phase of diploma work will focus on the analysis of financial cycle in the Czech Republic.
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Yayi, Adémola Eric. "Les choix de portefeuille des ménages au cours du cycle de vie." Thesis, Orléans, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015ORLE0507/document.
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La complexité grandissante des produits financiers proposés aux ménages et les innovations financières récentes ont révélé la vulnérabilité et la difficulté des ménages `à prendre des décisions appropriées. Afin de mieux comprendre leur comportement, cette thèse se concentre sur les choix de portefeuille des ménages au cours de leur cycle de vie. Quatre chapitres ont ´été d´développés dans ce but. Les conseillers en patrimoine suggèrent aux ménages de de s’investir en actifs risqués à l’approche de la retraite. Le chapitre 1 apporte un éclairage sur cette recommandation. Nous montrons que le profil d’investissement fondé sur cette recommandation n’est pas préférable à un profil d’investissement constant en raison de la sensibilité de leur performance aux marchés et période d’investissement. Cela nous a amené à analyser la relation entre les choix financiers et l’inertie de portefeuille dans le chapitre 2. Il ressort que la part d’actifs risqués est sensible à la conjoncture boursière mais essentiellement à la date d’ouverture du contrat. Les ménages maintiennent le plus souvent leur décision d’investissement tout au long de la durée du contrat. En revanche, en cas de fortes variations boursières, ils réajustent leurs portefeuilles. Ils sont plus sensibles aux baisses qu’aux hausses boursières. L’inertie de portefeuille est influencée par l’ˆâge de l’´épargnant et la date d’ouverture du contrat. Nous approfondissons le résultat de l’effet de l’âge sur l’inertie. Le chapitre 3 étudie donc comment varie la part d’actifs risqués avec l’âge. Nous montrons que cette part décline de façon régulière. Enfin le chapitre 4 analyse la participation des ménages au marché financier ainsi que les incidences de l’environnement économique sur les choix de portefeuille. Nous montrons que les facteurs institutionnels encouragent l’investissement dans l’immobilier au détriment des actifs risqués. Les choix de portefeuille des ménages sont aussi influencés par des facteurs d´démographiques et sociauxThe increasing complexity of financial products offered to households and the recent financial inno-vations have revealed households’ vulnerability and their difficulty in making appropriate decisions. Tounderstand their behaviour, this thesis deals with household portfolio choice over their life cycle. It consistsof four chapters. Professional financial planners often advise savers that the fraction of wealth held in riskyassets should decline with age or the distance to retirement. Chapter 1 sheds light on this recommendation.We show that the investment profile based on this recommendation is not preferable to an investment profilewhose share invested in risky assets remains constant over time, due to the sensitivity of their performance tomarket and investment length. This led us to analyse the relationship between financial decisions and portfolioinertia in Chapter 2. It appears that the risky share is sensitive to market conditions, but mainly at the dateof subscription. Once the initial share has been selected, inertia of portfolio choice is observed as investorsrarely revise their position subsequently. However, in case of large swings in financial markets, portfolio inertiafalls, and even more so when market go down. The propensity to inertia is influenced by savers’ age, the time,and the subscription date of the contract. Chapter 3 examines how household risky share vary with age. Weshow that the share of capital invested in unit-linked funds chosen by the investor declines steadily. Chapter 4analyses household participation in financial markets and the impact of the economic environment on portfoliochoice. We show that institutional factors encourage investment in real estate at the expense of risky assets.In addition to their economic environment, household portfolio choices are influenced by demographic andsocial factors