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1
L'Horty, Yannick. "Cycle financier ou risque déflationniste." Revue d'économie financière 26, no. 3 (1993): 65–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ecofi.1993.2006.
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Aglietta, Michel. "Finance globale, cycle financier et stabilité macroéconomique." Revue d'économie financière 127, no. 3 (2017): 223. http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/ecofi.127.0223.
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Aglietta, Michel. "Finance et macroéconomie : la prépondérance du cycle financier." Revue de l'OFCE 153, no. 4 (2017): 221. http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/reof.153.0221.
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Pandher, Gurupdesh. "Financier Search and Boundaries of the Angel and VC Markets." Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice 43, no. 6 (September 11, 2018): 1223–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1042258718780476.
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This paper studies how critical entrepreneurial finance outcomes such as the investment return and equity division are shaped by venture characteristics, financier risk preferences, and competitive searching. Our analysis uses a double-hazard agency model in which financiers determine the equity division to maximize the expected utility of their investment return while entrepreneurs search for the best deal. Model results provide new theoretical insights on the venture funding cycle, the coexistence of angels/venture capitalists (VCs) with heterogeneous risk aversion, and risk separation in the entrepreneurial finance market. The model predicts that financiers with higher funding capacity and advisory capabilities (e.g., VC firms) will prefer to fund at later stages as their expected investment return rises with the venture’s initial value and financier productivity. Competitive searching by entrepreneurs enables financiers with a diverse set of risk preferences to coexist profitably by reducing the advantage (disadvantage) of lower (higher) risk aversion financiers and making investment returns more similar. Further, the model shows the emergence of a risk separation cutoff beyond which only angels/VCs with lower levels of risk aversion can profitably fund riskier ventures.
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Rauwerda, Kirsten, Frank Jan de Graaf, Lex van Teeffelen, and Jamal Abid. "Gewoonten en tijdsdruk leidend bij keuzes voor mkb-financieringen." Maandblad voor Accountancy en Bedrijfseconomie 95, no. 3/4 (April 21, 2021): 137–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.5117/mab.95.47817.
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Behavioural finance maakt inzichtelijk door welke sociaal-psychologische drijfveren mensen zich laten leiden bij financiële beslissingen. In onze exploratieve studie naar financiering van het mkb laten wij zien hoe financiële professionals worden geleid door gewoonten en routines. Het blijkt dat hun afweging veel componenten kent en dat niet alleen de kapitaalkosten belangrijk zijn. Adviseurs hebben een sterke voorkeur voor reguliere bancaire producten, kiezen uit een beperkt aantal opties en worden erg gedreven door de haalbaarheid van een financieringsaanvraag en de aansluiting van de financier bij de ondernemer. Daarmee negeren zij belangrijke inzichten vanuit financieringstheorieën, zoals de Pecking Order en Growth Cycle Theory.
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Widodo, Arif. "THE ROLE OF INTEGRATED ISLAMIC COMMERCIAL AND SOCIAL FINANCE FOR CURBING CREDIT CYCLES AND ACHIEVING MACROPRUDENTIAL OBJECTIVE." Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance 3, no. 2 (March 28, 2018): 139–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/jimf.v3i2.887.
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It is widely believed that Islamic finance is inherently stable since the principle of risk-sharing and linking the financial to real counterpart in particular through its social finance are applied, hence the financial stability may successfully be attained. If mimicking the conventional finance, Islamic model will probably be facing instability, following the financial cycle. There has been a growing literature discussing credit cycle in mainstream perspective since 2008 global financial crash. However, it is quite rare to find study, in macro context, on credit cycles and the effectiveness of integrated Islamic commercial and social finance in achieving macroprudential objective: curtailing excessive credit. This study is designed to empirically examine the characteristics of cycles stemming from conventional and Islamic credit whether both have similar trend and also to investigate how the integrated Islamic commercial and social finance may be effective to hamper such cycles. By employing Hodrick-Presscot Filter, Markov Switching and Vector Error Correction Model, this study demonstrates that, in terms of cycle, Islamic model cycle has certain similarities with conventional counterpart since it functions under similar financial environment despite the fact that Islamic has less amplitude compared with conventional credit. Both credit and financing cycles tend to grow rapidly (excessive) several months before global financial crisis happened in 2008. This means that, in a dual banking system, credit and financing boom may precede financial crisis. Moreover, it is apparent also that the integrated Islamic finance is proven to be effective in curbing credit growth due to the effectiveness of both macroprudential instrument applied in banking sector and social finance in safeguarding financial stability.
Keywords: Credit cycle, Macroprudential policy, Markov Switching, HP filter
JEL Classification: E32, E51, G29
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Yuliani and Ade Maharini Adiandari. "Personal Financial Behavior and Financial Life Cycle: Evidence from Indonesia." International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation 24, no. 02 (February 12, 2020): 2490–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.37200/ijpr/v24i2/pr200545.
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Jerman, Frane. "Éditorial." Linguistica 35, no. 2 (July 22, 2021): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.4312/linguistica.35.2.1.
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La Faculté des Lettres de l'Université de Ljubljana est très honorée de pouvoir présenter au monde des sciences linguistiques, en résumé, les premiers travaux de jeunes chercheurs, actuellement assistants ou chargés de cours près des deux Universités slovenès, de Ljubljana et de Maribor, mais tous issus d'études auprès de la Faculté de l' Université de Ljubljana. Il s 'agit de quatre thèses de doctorat ès sciences, de quatre thèses de troisième cycle et, chose particulièrement précieuse, de deux travaux de licence que les directeurs des études de ces jeunes étudiants ont jugé dignes de publication. Les thèmes traités portent sur les domaines des langues slaves, romanes et germaniques. Méritent une mention particulière les travaux qui embrassent plus d'un seul domain, lorsque le regard du chercheur s'est posé sur la situation en slovène en la comparant, en clé contrastive, avec la situation dans une langue étrangère. La Faculté des Lettres de l'Université de Ljubljana est fière d'avoir pu encourager ces travaux et rendre possible leur publication, grâce aussi à l'aide du Ministere des Sciences et Technologie de la République de Slovénie, lequel avec son soutien financier permet la publication de la revue linguistique. Au nom de la Faculté et en mon nom je souhaite aux jeunes chercheurs beaucoup de succès dans leur carrière scientifique.
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Kunieda, Takuma, and Akihisa Shibata. "ENTREPRENEURS, FINANCIERS, AND BOOM–BUST CYCLES." Macroeconomic Dynamics 21, no. 3 (April 22, 2016): 785–816. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000681.
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In this paper, a dynamic general equilibrium model with infinitely lived entrepreneurs and financiers is developed to investigate a possible mechanism that explains business cycles and financial crises. The highest growth rate is achievable only if financiers coexist with entrepreneurs, given a certain extent of financial market imperfections. However, if financiers coexist with entrepreneurs, the economy is highly likely to face a financial crisis at certain parameter values. These two-sided implications of the coexistence of entrepreneurs and financiers explain why both instability and high growth are frequently observed in modern economies. Furthermore, our model can obtain countercyclical movements in total factor productivity growth that cannot be explained by the standard real business cycle theory but were observed in the Great Recession of 2007–2008.
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Hindrayani, Aniek, Eduardus Tandelilin, Suad Husnan, and I. Wayan Nuka Lantara. "Does business cycle matter in bank-firm relationships to overcome under-over-investment?" Banks and Bank Systems 13, no. 4 (December 28, 2018): 153–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.13(4).2018.14.
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Considering that bank does not always perform its functions to overcome financial constraints and to monitor the company’s financial activities, this study aims to examine the role of bank-firm relationships in the effect of internal finance on investment based on the business cycle. The testing stages started with testing the effect of internal finance on investment, testing the role of bank-firm relationships in the effect of internal finance to investment, and testing the role of bank-firm relationships based on the business cycles. Non-financial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange make the sample of this study, while the data used are the financial statements for the period of 2002 – 2015 sourced from Osiris database. Hypotheses were tested using unbalanced panel regression. The results showed that internal finance has a positive effect on investment. The bank-firm relationships play a significant role in the effect of internal finance on the investment. In the growing companies, bank-firm relationships reduce underinvestment, and in mature companies, bank-firm relationships reduce overinvestment significantly. This study implies that banks run their role in helping to meet the needs of the internal financing. Companies with strong bank-firm relationships reduce the problem of underinvestment and asymmetric information. They also reduce the problem of overinvestment and agency of free cash flow. Banks perform their role in monitoring the financing activities of the mature companies.
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Pedchenko, Nataliya, Victoria Strilec, Galina M. Kolisnyk, Mariia V. Dykha, and Serhiy Frolov. "Business angels as an alternative to financial support at the early stages of small businesses’ life cycle." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 15, no. 1 (February 22, 2018): 166–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.15(1).2018.15.
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In the process of small business establishment and development, it is very important to understand both the financial needs of entrepreneurs and the main obstacles and difficulties arising in the way of financing. Alternative sources of financial support, along with traditional ones, create opportunities to increase funds, but the solution to the issue of their attraction should be based on modern effective methods and decision- making technologies. The article uses the decision tree method to determine the optimal alternative to financial support of small business at the early stages of the life cycle. The results highlight the importance of alternative source of resources for small business entities, namely business angels’ means. The empirical and statistical analysis confirms that access to alternative sources of financing for small businesses in EU countries is improving, while in Ukraine, informal financing is a rather new and underdeveloped area. Based on the analysis of the advantages of using the business angels’ funds, it was concluded that they need to implement their potential in small business of Ukraine. The results show that the decision tree method is an effective tool for deciding on the prioritization of a financial alternative to the small business, and is characterized by ease of use, forecast precision and problems solution novelty.
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Irawan, Denny, and Febrio Kacaribu. "TRI-CYCLES ANALYSIS ON BANK PERFORMANCE: PANEL VAR APPROACH." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 19, no. 4 (July 7, 2017): 403–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v19i4.694.
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The previous financial crisis has revealed the importance of risk in the financial and business cycle within the economy. This paper examines relationship among three cycles in the economy, namely (i) business cycle macro risk, (ii) credit cycle and (iii) risk cycle, and their impacts toward individual bank performance. We examine the responses of individual bank credit cycle and risk cycle toward a shock in business cycle macro risk and its consequence to the bank performance. We use Indonesian data for period of 2005q1 to 2014q4. We use unbalanced panel data of individual banks’ balance sheet with Panel Vector Autoregressive approach based on GMM style estimation by implementing PVAR package developed by Abrigo and Love (2015). The result shows dynamic relationship between business cycle macro risk and financial risk cycles. The study also observes prominent role of risk cycles in driving bank performance. We also show the existence of financial accelerator phenomenon in Indonesian banking system, in which financial cycles precede the business cycle macro risk.
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Harun, Siti Latipah, Norazlina Abd Wahab, and Rosylin Mohd Yusof. "Islamic Financial Institutions and Real Estate Cycle." Indian-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Finance 2, no. 3 (July 1, 2018): 16–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.52962/ipjaf.2018.2.3.57.
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The role of Islamic financial intuitions is essential in providing Islamic financing specifically to investors and stakeholders to invest in real estate. Therefore, understanding the link of the real estate cycle to the financial institutions is crucial. This is because the real estate cycle is one of the critical elements that will affect financing decisions and strategies of the banking sectors. Hence, this paper employed meta-analysis which aims (1) to systematically review survey the growing literature on real estate cycle and its links to the financial institutions; (2) to highlight possible cross-country trend analysis financial strategy among investors in dealing in with the real estate cycle. The results of the study suggest that during the peak cycle or period of crisis, most investors are risk-averse and increase the risk to the financing of real estate as well. This real estate cycle that occurs almost every 10 years in conventional real estate sectors also give some consequences to the Islamic financial institutions. This paper suggests to investors to understand the real estate cycle and its impact on Islamic financial institutions.
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Male, Rachel. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle." Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 47, sup2 (May 2011): 20–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/ree1540-496x4703s202.
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Chang, Yuan. "Financial Soundness Indicator, Financial Cycle, Credit Cycle and Business Cycle－Evidence from Taiwan." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 4 (March 23, 2016): 166. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n4p166.
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<p>Business cycle is the repeated expansions (from trough to peak) and contractions (from peak to trough) of real economic activity. Credit cycle is the cyclical process of the bank credit, ranging from short/long-term, loan to enterprise and loan to individual. Financial cycle reflects ups and downs in asset prices and financial institution's balance sheet. This paper examines the linkage among cycles as well as their lead-lag relationship. Theoretically, credit cycle is one of reasons driving business cycle, and financial cycle is a fundamental cause of credit cycle. Based on Taiwan’s quarterly data, this paper firstly identifies cyclical behavior of indicators of real economic activity, bank credit and assets prices in recent decade by defining expansion phases and contraction phases of cyclical variables. Second, this paper calculates concordance index to examine the degree of synchronization among cycles. Third, while the soundness for assets and liabilities of financial institution may drive financial cycle, this paper employs IMF’s Financial Soundness Indicator (FSI) as predictor of expansion and contraction phase of cyclical variables. Specifically, the paper assesses the health of bank’s balance sheet variables by Probit estimation on linkage between FSIs and expansion/contraction phase of cycle. Based on empirical evidence, the knowledge about the extent of assets/liability condition of financial institution corresponding to the expansion and contraction phase of financial, credit and business cycle is enhanced. Authority concerning about financial stability should oversight the performance of FSIs and then engage in prompt corrective actions when the level and volatility of those indicators sharply.</p>
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Scharnagl, Michael, and Martin Mandler. "Real and Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: Results from Wavelet Analysis." Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 239, no. 5-6 (September 25, 2019): 895–916. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2019-0035.
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Abstract We study the within-country dimension of financial cycles in the four largest euro area economies using tools from wavelet analysis. We focus on credit and house price cycles which are most commonly used to represent the financial cycle. With the exception of Germany, the variables contain important common cycles within each country close to the upper bound of business cycle length and beyond which can be interpreted as financial cycles. These cycles are closely linked to domestic cycles in real activity showing financial and real economic cycles as interconnected phenomena. For these common cycles, credit and house prices lag real GDP.
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Tatarici, Luminita. "Financial cycle. How does it look like in Romania?" Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Statistics 1, no. 1 (October 1, 2019): 473–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/icas-2019-0041.
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Abstract The paper aims to identify the main characteristics of the financial cycle for Romania using both the classical and growth cycle approaches. The turning point methodology represents the classical approach, while a band-pass filter is applied to capture the growth cycle. First, the paper assesses the significance of the medium-term cyclical component and finds that its importance increased since 2000s. The second purpose is to identify the relevant variables for the construction of a composite measure of the financial cycle. The results reveal that total credit and real estate prices are the best candidates. Regarding cycles’ characteristics, the classical approach shows that credit cycles tend last around 10 years, while the real estate cycles are longer and exhibit higher corrections during downturns.
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Kim Cuong, Ly, and Vo Xuan Vinh. "Interbank financing and business cycle in Europe." Journal of Economic Studies 46, no. 6 (October 14, 2019): 1280–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-08-2016-0148.
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Purpose The knowledge of the link between interbank financing and business cycle fluctuations is important in assessing the stability and soundness of the banking sector. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the simultaneous relationship between interbank financing and the business cycle with respect to the financial structure of the bank-based and market-based systems in European countries by using bank-level data from 2007 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach The study employs an innovative instrumenting technique with an instrument of the financial structure to address the simultaneous determination of interbank financing and the business cycle. Findings The results suggest that banks establish pro-cyclical interbank borrowing by increasing their interbank position during booms and reducing it during downturns. Bank-based system performs better in redistributing the liquidity in the economy than the market-based system when there are imperfectly correlated liquidity shocks across regions during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Practical implications The improvement of banks’ liquidity risk management should be aligned with a specific financial system. The macro-prudential supervisor should require banks in the market-based system to disclose their interbank position on the extent of risk exposure during the liquidity shock period to stabilize the EU banking industry. Originality/value This study is the first to provide policy makers with some novel empirical results concerning the linkage among bank liquidity, the macroeconomic condition and financial structure.
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Mamonov, Mikhail, Vera Pankova, Renat Akhmetov, and Anna Pestova. "Financial Shocks and Credit Cycles." Russian Journal of Money and Finance 79, no. 4 (December 2020): 45–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.31477/rjmf.202004.45.
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This paper compares the contribution of internal and external financial shocks to the formation of credit cycle phases using cross- country quarterly data for 27 countries, including advanced and emerging economies, for the period from 1990 through 2019. To conduct comparative analysis, we apply IV Probit models of the credit cycle which take into account the relationship between the credit and business cycles the inertia of the cycles and the non-linearity of the transmission of internal and external financial shocks to the economy through the credit market. In our sample of countries, the transmission of shocks to credit cycle phases proves to be non-linear (a switching effect is observed depending on the time elapsed since the shocks occurred); with the economic effect of the external capital inflow shock being in absolute value twice stronger than that of the bank credit supply shock (on average for the current and subsequent quarters); in turn, the bank credit supply shock is twice stronger than the monetary policy shock. A counterfactual analysis of the role of financial shocks in the formation of the credit cycle in Russia indicates an increase in the effectiveness of the monetary authorities in terms of their ability to control the phases of the credit cycle and, accordingly, a relative decrease in the role of credit supply shocks, while the global financial cycle retains its dominance.
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Baladayi Nazarov, Javidan. "Legal regulation of cycle economic development and phases of cycles." SCIENTIFIC WORK 61, no. 12 (December 25, 2020): 174–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.36719/2663-4619/61/174-178.
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The subject of the article covers issues that have been relevant since the last century. The study of economic fluctuations, the study of their causes allows us to make proposals to eliminate its negative consequences. Frequent crises since the early twentieth century necessitate the expansion of research in this area. The peculiarities of cyclic phases require different approaches and problem-oriented regulatory policies. For this reason, it is necessary to pursue an adequate state policy. Normative legal acts, laws and decisions are the main tools of legal regulation. Steps are also being taken to reduce the negative effects of the cyclical phases used by the Central Bank and other banking and financial institutions Key words: crisis, economic development, cyclical phases, government regulation, legal norms, financial crisis, fiscal and monetary policy, legal regulation
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El-Baz, Osama. "The Synchronization of Financial and Business Cycles in Saudi Arabia." Scholedge International Journal of Management & Development ISSN 2394-3378 5, no. 4 (May 16, 2018): 32. http://dx.doi.org/10.19085/journal.sijmd050401.
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Financial cycles have become vividly tracked and analyzed by regulatory authorities to avoid the buildup of excessive systemic risks in the financial system that could hamper economic growth. However, fiscal policy usually pays an exclusive attention to business cycles; which might leave fiscal outcomes vulnerable to financial sector dynamics. We investigated financial and business cycles in Saudi Arabia over the period (1970Q1- 2016Q4). The results of the BBQ cycle dating algorithm revealed that the duration of financial upturns (downturns) are longer than that for economic expansions (contractions) in means, also both the amplitude and the slope for upturns (downturns) are higher than those for expansions (contractions) in means. Moreover, financial cycle episodes are more frequent than business cycle episodes. Finally, we found empirical evidence that financial (credit) conditions are crucial for economic stability. Fiscal policy can play an important role in fostering economic growth going forward through the implementation of a countercyclical policy that allows for the accumulation of fiscal buffers and releasing them during periods of an economic slowdown, the setup of early warning systems for business and financial cycles, and the introduction of fiscal rules to limit the scope for a procyclical fiscal stance.
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Škare, Marinko, and Malgorzata Porada-Rochoń. "FORECASTING FINANCIAL CYCLES: CAN BIG DATA HELP?" Technological and Economic Development of Economy 26, no. 5 (June 22, 2020): 974–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.12702.
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Financial cycles as a source of financial crisis and business cycles that was demonstrated during the financial crisis of 2008, so it is important to understand proper methods of measuring and forecasting them to unravel their true nature. We searched financial big data for the UK, USA, Japan and China for a period 2004Q1 to 2019Q1 to find important data corresponding to the research and determine their importance for the financial cycle studies. We use singular spectral analysis (SSA without financial big data) and multichannel singular spectral analysis (MSSA with financial big data) to identify significant deterministic cycles in the residential property prices, credits to private non-financial sector and credit share in the GDP. The forecast test results show on the data for the UK, USA, Japan and China that inclusion of the financial big data significantly (on the level from 30% to four times) improves forecast accuracy for financial cycle components. This is a first study on the importance of the link between financial cycles and financial big data. Policymakers, practitioners and financial cycles research should take into the account the importance of financial big data for the studies of financial cycles for a better understanding of their true nature and improving their forecast accuracy.
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Fan, Conglai, and Gao Jiechao. "Differentiation of economic and financial cycles and the logic of China’s monetary policy reform." China Political Economy 2, no. 2 (December 2, 2019): 277–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cpe-10-2019-0021.
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Purpose In recent years, with the gradual differentiation of economic and financial cycles, it has been increasingly difficult for monetary policies to remain balanced in stabilizing both economy and finance. Taking the period of 1999–2017 as a sample, the purpose of this paper is to find whether the synergy between the growth cycle and the price cycle is constantly improving in the economic cycle is more appropriate. Design/methodology/approach The key to stabilizing the economic cycle lies in the monetary policy and it should abandon the goal of boosting growth in a timely manner and turn into the goal of maintaining steady growth. At present, quantitative monetary policy is still more effective than price-oriented monetary policy in smoothing the economic cycle. Findings The impact of quantitative regulation on the financial cycle is more neutral, whereas price regulation will increase the volatility of price and financial cycles in the course of smoothing the growth cycle. In view of the continuous differentiation between the economic and financial cycles, it is realistic and reasonable to accelerate the establishment of a sound dual-pillar regulatory framework of “monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.” Originality/value The macro-prudential policy is specially used to smooth the financial cycle, so as to reduce the burden and increase the efficiency of the monetary policy on regulating economic cycle. Moreover, the transformation of monetary policy to price-oriented regulation must keep pace with the construction of the dual-pillar regulation framework and complement each other to prevent undesirable consequences in the financial sector. On the other hand, monetary policy still needs to rely on quantitative regulation in the future. The research in this paper also provides a new perspective for understanding the internal and external reform of China’s monetary policy in recent years.
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Amromin, Gene, Neil Bhutta, and Benjamin J. Keys. "Refinancing, Monetary Policy, and the Credit Cycle." Annual Review of Financial Economics 12, no. 1 (November 1, 2020): 67–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012720-120430.
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We assess the complicated reality of monetary policy transmission through mortgage markets by synthesizing the existing literature on the role of refinancing in policy implementation. After briefly reviewing mortgage market institutions in the USA and documenting refinance activity over time, we summarize the links between refinancing and consumption and describe the frictions impeding the refinancing channel. The review draws heavily on research emerging from the experience of the financial crisis of 2008–2009, as it highlights a combination of market, institutional, and policy-making factors that dulled the transmission mechanism. We conclude with a discussion of potential mortgage market innovations and the applicability of lessons learned to the ongoing stresses induced by the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Ajello, Andrea. "Financial Intermediation, Investment Dynamics, and Business Cycle Fluctuations." American Economic Review 106, no. 8 (August 1, 2016): 2256–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20120079.
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I use micro data to quantify key features of US firm financing. In particular, I establish that a substantial 35 percent of firms' investment is funded using financial markets. I then construct a dynamic equilibrium model that matches these features and fit the model to business cycle data using Bayesian methods. In the model, financial intermediaries enable trades of financial assets, directing funds toward investment opportunities, and charge an intermediation spread to cover their costs. According to the model estimation, exogenous shocks to the intermediation spread explain 25 percent of GDP and 30 percent of investment volatility. (JEL D22, D92, E32, G21, G31, G32)
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Kwansa, Francis, and Michael R. Evans. "Financial Management in the Context of the Organizational Life Cycle." Hospitality Education and Research Journal 12, no. 2 (February 1988): 197–214. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/109634808801200220.
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Various researchers agree to the existence of corporate organizational life cycles similar in principle to the product life cycle concept used in marketing. Life cycle models applied to business organizations suggest that functional departments grow and undergo unique changes in various developmental stages of the firm. The purpose of this study was to determine the changes, issues, and responsibilities common to people involved in financial decision-making in foodservice firms at different stages of the organizational life-cycle.
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Gomes, Francisco. "Portfolio Choice Over the Life Cycle: A Survey." Annual Review of Financial Economics 12, no. 1 (November 1, 2020): 277–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-113815.
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Life-cycle portfolio choice models capture the role of human capital, housing, borrowing constraints, background risk, and several other crucial ingredients for determining the savings and investment decisions of households. Over the last two decades, this literature has provided us with multiple insights regarding the asset allocation decisions of individual investors. This article provides a critical survey of this research and suggests directions for future research, namely incorporating additional forms of household heterogeneity.
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Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata, and Marinko Škare. "GENERALIZED FINANCIAL CYCLE THEORY FROM THE MINSKY’S PERSPECTIVE: UK 1270–2016." Journal of Business Economics and Management 21, no. 5 (August 20, 2020): 1375–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2020.12878.
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Our study aims to bridge the gap between contemporary studies on financial cycles and the financial instability hypothesis in the form of a Minsky cycle (Minsky, 1963). Paper contribution range from explored causality links (financial cycles cause business cycles) to the empirical estimation of the Minsky moment. We use Braitung and Candelon (2006) Granger causality test and discrete threshold model (Hansen, 2005) to the link between financial and business cycles in the UK from 1270–2016. Financial and business cycles relation varies over time with contemporary financial cycles being longer to their historical versions. Financial cycles lead business cycles. Business cycles are an economy reaction to them and change in the Minsky moment. Minsky moment has a statistically significant impact on main growth determinants – population, export, technology. Policymakers should look for the Minsky moment when setting up a new economic policy to assure it will be an effective one.
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Lu, Yi Qing. "Internet Financial Innovation Based on Enterprise Growth Cycle for the Small and Medium Enterprises." Advanced Materials Research 989-994 (July 2014): 5386–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.989-994.5386.
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Financing is always a big problem in the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) in our country. It’s necessary to develop Internet financial to support the development of real economy and improve SME’s financing situation. In this paper, an analysis of the SME’s financing innovation is described and then an internet financing innovation which is oriented to growth phase SME is proposed, in order to better meet SME’s financing requirement in different growth phases.
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Crouzet, Nicolas, and Neil R. Mehrotra. "Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle." American Economic Review 110, no. 11 (November 1, 2020): 3549–601. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181499.
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This paper uses new confidential Census data to revisit the relationship between firm size, cyclicality, and financial frictions. First, we find that large firms (the top 1 percent by size) are less cyclically sensitive than the rest. Second, high and rising concentration implies that the higher cyclicality of the bottom 99 percent of firms only has a modest impact on aggregate fluctuations. Third, differences in cyclicality are not simply explained by financing, and in fact appear largely unrelated to proxies for financial strength. We instead provide evidence for an alternative mechanism based on the industry scope of the very largest firms. (JEL D22, E32, G32, L25)
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Fischer, Marcel, and Michael Z. Stamos. "Optimal Life Cycle Portfolio Choice with Housing Market Cycles." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 9 (March 26, 2013): 2311–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hht010.
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Boz, Emine, and Linda Tesar. "The Global Financial Cycle." IMF Economic Review 67, no. 1 (March 2019): 1–3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41308-019-00076-2.
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Kolodiziev, Oleh, Iryna Chmutova, and Viktoriia Biliaieva. "Selecting a kind of financial innovation according to the level of a bank’s financial soundness and its life cycle stage." Banks and Bank Systems 11, no. 4 (December 9, 2016): 40–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.11(4).2016.04.
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This paper presents the recommendations for selecting a kind of financial innovation in a bank based on the results of theoretical research regarding its usage as a tool for ensuring bank financial soundness. The study is aimed at developing an approach to selecting a kind of financial innovation depending on the level of bank financial soundness and the stage of bank life cycle. The existing method of identifying a bank’s life cycle stage in the framework of the developed approach was improved: it was offered to use the criteria of the growth rates of a bank’s market share, total income, staff costs and net cash flow for grouping banks by the stage of their life cycle and conduct two-steps clustering which helps to determine those banks which are on the transitional stages and to refer a bank to a similar group (growth, stabilization and decline). The empirical results of its implementation suggest that there are three groups of Ukrainian banks that vary according to the stage of bank life cycle (growth, stabilization, decline), excepting those institutions which are on the transitional stages. By the example of banks which represent the main characteristics of each cluster, the authors recommend to launch particular kinds of financial innovation in bank operating activity, taking into account the peculiarities of each group. The empirical results confirm the relevance of the developed approach and its value for identifying the current phase of a bank’s development and managing its financial soundness. Keywords: bank financial soundness, bank life cycle stage, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, Ukraine. JEL Classification: G21, D91
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Boehm, Josefine, Daniel Voll, and Henning Zülch. "The hardest cycle climb at TCC: A financial instruments case." Corporate Ownership and Control 15 (2017): 387–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cocv15i1c2p8.
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TCC AG is a fast-growing bicycle production company and is headed by an ambitious top management team that wants to reinforce the firm’s expansion strategy with a sophisticated financial funding scheme. However, combined with an income decline, the financing strategy unexpectedly poses an existential threat to TCC. Complex accounting questions arise including the likely breach of a financial covenant, the detailed contractual clauses of a prospectus and the execution of a debt-for-equity swap. The underlying accounting requirements cover the recognition, the measurement and the disclosures of non-derivative financial instruments according to the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). To foster a holistic understanding of financial instruments, the educational resource further combines the accounting concepts with related corporate finance theory. With this integrative approach, the case intends to encourage students’ critical reflection upon the far-reaching economic consequences resulting from accounting decisions.
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Criste, Adina, Iulia Lupu, and Radu Lupu. "Coherence and Entropy of Credit Cycles across the Euro Area Candidate Countries." Entropy 23, no. 9 (September 14, 2021): 1213. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23091213.
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The pattern of financial cycles in the European Union has direct impacts on financial stability and economic sustainability in view of adoption of the euro. The purpose of the article is to identify the degree of coherence of credit cycles in the countries potentially seeking to adopt the euro with the credit cycle inside the Eurozone. We first estimate the credit cycles in the selected countries and in the euro area (at the aggregate level) and filter the series with the Hodrick–Prescott filter for the period 1999Q1–2020Q4. Based on these values, we compute the indicators that define the credit cycle similarity and synchronicity in the selected countries and a set of entropy measures (block entropy, entropy rate, Bayesian entropy) to show the high degree of heterogeneity, noting that the manifestation of the global financial crisis has changed the credit cycle patterns in some countries. Our novel approach provides analytical tools to cope with euro adoption decisions, showing how the coherence of credit cycles can be increased among European countries and how the national macroprudential policies can be better coordinated, especially in light of changes caused by the pandemic crisis.
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Cunha, André Moreira, Andrés Ernesto Ferrari Haines, and Pedro Perfeito Da Silva. "Global financial cycle and Brazil’s financial integration." International Review of Applied Economics 33, no. 6 (June 17, 2019): 829–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2019.1620701.
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Laktionova, O. A., and O. V. Benzar. "Researching the Financial Cycle Patterns of the Economies of the World’s Countries and Ukraine." Business Inform 6, no. 509 (2020): 252–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-6-252-259.
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Meiryani, Meiryani, Gatot Soepriyanto, Dianka Wahyuningtias, and Kartika Dewi. "Accounting Perspective in Hospital." International Journal of Online and Biomedical Engineering (iJOE) 16, no. 08 (July 17, 2020): 114. http://dx.doi.org/10.3991/ijoe.v16i08.14721.
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<p>The hospital is an organization whose main purpose is to provide services in the form of examinations, treatment, medical measures and other diagnostic measures needed by each patient within the limits of technological capabilities and facilities provided by the hospital. In addition the hospital also provides consulting services that provide information and advice to patients. Hospitals in carrying out operational and investment activities are inseparable from the costs. Various kinds of services in hospitals incur costs. Transaction cycle in Hospital: (1) Revenue cycle related to providing hospital services to patients or other parties and receiving patient payments or bills from other parties; (2) The expenditure cycle is related to the procurement of goods and / or services from other parties and the settlement of debts and obligations; (3) Production / service cycle related to the transformation of hospital resources into hospital services; (4) Financial cycles related to the acquisition and management of capital funds (capital funds), such as working capital (sources of cash funds or other liquid funds) and long-term funding sources; (5) The financial reporting cycle is not related to the operating cycle as the first four cycles above. This cycle obtains operating and accounting data from another cycle and processes them into financial statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.</p>
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Zhou, Haigang. "Cyclical comovements of the world equity indexes." Managerial Finance 42, no. 5 (May 9, 2016): 472–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/mf-11-2014-0287.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study synchronization in stock index cycles across 82 countries and the linkage between macroeconomic and financial integration and stock market synchronization. Design/methodology/approach – The author document the synchronization structure of the world equity index cycles and its evolution over time. The author examine the explanatory power of various economic and financial variables on cycle comovements. Findings – Trade openness, capital openness, and an EU membership contribute to higher stock index cycle synchronization. Additionally, the macroeconomic and financial variables have asymmetric impacts on countries of different development levels. Originality/value – The author is the first to thoroughly chronicle the turning points, i.e., bear and bull regimes, of world equity indexes and empirically examine determinants of their cyclical comovement across nations.
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Skare, Marinko, and Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń. "Tracking financial cycles in ten transitional economies 2005–2018 using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) techniques." Equilibrium 14, no. 1 (March 31, 2019): 7–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2019.001.
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Research background: Financial cycles are behind many deep financial crises and it closely connects them with the business cycles, showing long memory properties and effects. Being closely connected with the business cycles, we must first explore the true nature of the financial cycles to understand the nature of the business cycles. Financial cycles are real, they have long memory properties and long-lasting effects on the economy.
Purpose of the article: This study investigates the use of (SSA) in tracking and monitoring financial cycles focusing on ten (10) transitional economies 2005–2018.
Methods: Singular spectrum analysis isolate significant oscillatory patterns (cycles) on housing markets with an average 4-years length. We isolate credit cycles just for Bulgaria, implying long memory properties of the cycles since this study investigated medium term (2–5 years) oscillations.
Findings & Value added: The results prove the importance and advantages of using (SSA) in the study of financial cycles attempting to reveal the true nature of financial cycles as the principal component behind business cycles. Financial cycles show longer oscillations in the credit and property price series, which can explain 37.7%–49.9% of the variance of the total financial cycle fluctuations. Study results are of practical importance, particularly to policy-makers and practitioners in former transitional economies being vulnerable to adverse shocks on the financial markets. The results should assist policy-makers and financial practitioners in building and maintaining a sound financial policy needed to avoid future financial “bubbles”.
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ERIXON, LENNART. "Development blocks, malinvestment and structural tensions – the Åkerman–Dahmén theory of the business cycle." Journal of Institutional Economics 7, no. 1 (June 7, 2010): 105–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1744137410000196.
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Abstract:Johan Åkerman and Erik Dahmén's institutional theory of economic fluctuations is a constructive alternative to traditional macroeconomic approaches and also to modern business-cycle analysis based on microeconomic optimization models. By its integration of a business-cycle and growth perspective, Åkerman and Dahmén's analysis was similar to that of Schumpeter in Business Cycles. But their notions of malinvestment, structural tensions, and development blocks provided an original explanation of the turning points in the business cycle. The Åkerman–Dahmén approach is more valid for innovation-driven cycles such as the ICT boom in the late 1990s and the subsequent crisis than for cycles with an independent role of financial-market conditions.
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Isaic, Radu, Tudor Smirna, and Cristian Paun. "A critical view on the mainstream theory of economic cycles." Management & Marketing. Challenges for the Knowledge Society 14, no. 1 (March 1, 2019): 48–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/mmcks-2019-0004.
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Abstract World economy is frequently affected by fluctuations that occur recurrently with a certain periodicity. The predictability of economic fluctuations is low. Frequency and magnitude of cycles is generally reduced. Economy cycles belong to the economy’s DNA. It is measured by different indicators, but the most important is GDP. There are four types of economic cycles: Kitchin (Stocks), Juglar (Investment), Kuznets (Infrastructure), Kondratiev (Technological Innovation). Right now, science and technology are going through major changes that lead to an economic crisis of the Kondratiev model. Fiscal and monetary policy can alleviate fluctuations. Theories explaining economic cycles: overinvestment (misallocation of rare resources), Keynesiana (insufficient aggregate demand), monetarist (lack of monetary discipline), real business cycle (aggregate supply in change), neo Keynesiana (market imperfections), consensus (all factors considered). The financial cycle has been little considered so far. The financial cycle greatly influences the economic cycle, finances allocate resources and creates purchasing power. The financial cycle has a different structure than the economic one. It can use fiscal and monetary policies to direct it. The only paradigm that links the economic and financial cycles is the Austrian economic paradigm. In practice and current economic theory, there is a desire for a coincidence in time between the phases of the economic cycles of the various state entities of the United States and a convergence of evolution towards the same qualitative and quantitative characteristics. This implies an identity of cultural, historical, economic, political, and psychological evolution of the EU, which can not be achieved even between close regions of the same national state. The lack of barriers to the circulation of economic information (goods, services) between regions will lead to an approximate coincidence of economic evolution, but starting from the psychic structure of the inhabitants of a region, the cultural, religious and cultural heritage passing through the capital, the economic zones differ and to force them in different directions will lead to unnecessary fragmentation lines. The anticipated outcome of the study: It is desirable to leave economic areas to evolve in their own terms rather than leveling and uniforming them by economic manipulation techniques. It is preferable to use the method of scientific abstraction and deductive apriorism during the study.
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Kurowski, Łukasz. "Financial cycle − A critical analysis of the methodology for its identification." Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 10, no. 3 (September 1, 2021): 99–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0026.
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Abstract While the legitimacy of the concept of the financial cycle (as distinct from the business cycle) in research and economic policy after the experience of the global financial crisis raises no concerns, the methodology for its application has become a subject of discussion. The purpose of this article is to indicate which research methods dominate in identifying a financial cycle and which methodological traps accompany them. The low level of critical perspective on the methods used to identify cycles often results in conclusions that have no economic justification and may result in erroneous decisions in economic policy and central bank practice. The case study carried out in the article confirms that the key elements in identifying a financial cycle are part of a long-term series covering at least two lengths of the financial cycle. In addition, because the results may be sensitive to the type of filter used, it is important not to rely on a single variable but rather to build indexes that take into account a number of them (including those obtained using filtration methods).
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Mendoza, Enrique G. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage." American Economic Review 100, no. 5 (December 1, 2010): 1941–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.5.1941.
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Financial crashes were followed by deep recessions in the Sudden Stops of emerging economies. An equilibrium business cycle model with a collateral constraint explains this phenomenon as a result of the amplification and asymmetry that the constraint induces in the responses of macro-aggregates to shocks. Leverage rises during expansions, and when it rises enough it triggers the constraint, causing a Fisherian deflation that reduces credit and the price and quantity of collateral assets. Output and factor allocations fall because access to working capital financing is also reduced. Precautionary saving makes Sudden Stops low probability events nested within normal cycles, as observed in the data. (JEL E21, E23, E32, E44, G01, O11, O16)
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Golubev, A. V., and E. V. Ivanova. "Some Aspects of Business Cycle Theory." Economics and Management, no. 10 (December 18, 2019): 16–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.35854/1998-1627-2019-10-16-24.
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The presented study examines the economic nature of cycles and its key component — crisis — the initial phase of a business cycle.Aim. The study aims to determine the effect of business cycles and their alternation on the Russian economy.Tasks. The authors examine models that explain the functioning of medium-term business cycles; identify the major causes of financial and economic crises at the turn of the cycle; determine the consequences of modern business cycles for Russia in terms of its macroeconomic indicators.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition to examine the concept of business cycles and determine the causes and consequences of modern crises for the country’s economy.Results. Among the existing types of business cycles there are medium-term cycles, a global turn in which over the last three decades is caused primarily by the problems in the financial sector of the US economy. A comparative analysis of the current medium-term cycle and the previous one makes it possible to determine their quantitative and qualitative implications for the Russian economy. The 2008–2009 turn in business cycles pointed at the low efficiency of the Russian economic policy at the time, which had achieved great results during the previous cycle. The average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Russia decreased not only in comparison between the two business cycles, but also in comparison with the global GDP growth rates. The modern world is currently in the final phase of the business cycle after a sustained growth, while the state of the Russian economy has long been characterized by stagnation in many industries, which poses a threat to the economic stability of the state on the verge of a new crisis.Conclusions. Examination of the concepts of business cycles as recurring periods of fluctuating business activity makes it possible not only to identify external and internal causes of economic instability during a cycle and at the turn of a cycle, but also to analyze the state of the economy in different phases of a cycle to improve the efficiency of the national economic policy.
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Honningdal Grytten, Ola, and Viktoriia Koilo. "Financial instability, institutional development and economic crisis in Eastern Europe." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 16, no. 3 (September 6, 2019): 167–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(3).2019.16.
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This paper sheds light on the financial crisis of 2008–2010 in eleven emerging Eastern European economies (EE11): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Romania, Tajikistan and Ukraine. The aim is twofold. In the first place it seeks to find out if the financial instability hypothesis, as put forward by Minsky and Kindleberger, is a valid explanatory factor for the crisis. Secondly, it tries to map if general institutional frameworks of these countries were developed in order to stand against the factors leading into the financial crisis.To answer these research problems the paper maps cycles of three parameters representing the real economy, i.e. gross domestic product, manufacturing output and unemployment and four parameters representing the financial markets, i.e. money supply, credit volumes, inflation and government debt. The cycle approach is carried out with the help of a structural time series analysis to isolate cycles in time series. The paper concludes that there were substantial positive financial cycles previous to the financial crisis mirrored by similar cycles in the real economy. Similarly, the results show negative cycles in the same parameters during the years of crisis. It seems that an uncontrolled increase in money and credit caused the economy to overheat and thereafter contract into financial and real economy crises.Also, the paper compiles twelve different indices of institutional development. These are standardized and presented in an institutional development matrix, showing that the general institutional framework for the eleven economies was weak previous to and under the meltdown of the economies. The construction of an integrated institutional development index on the basis of the same twelve parameters confirms institutional shortcomings, which may have made the economies less able to guard themselves from a crisis initiated by both domestically and internationally financial instability.
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Sánchez-Vidal, Javier, and Juan Francisco Martín-Ugedo. "ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINANCIAL GROWTH CYCLE CONFIRMED FOR SPANISH SMES?" Journal of Business Economics and Management 13, no. 4 (September 17, 2012): 637–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2011.620161.
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The aim of this paper is to analyze whether some of the empirical implications of the financial growth cycle hold in a sample of Spanish SMEs. We use a sample of 5,944 observations for the year 2007 and test several hypotheses using MANOVA analysis. The results show that companies tend to have different financing structures depending on their age and size. Hypotheses about trade credit, short term debt and risk are confirmed with respect to age, as the younger companies tend to use proportionally more trade credit and short term debt, and are riskier. Size is also associated in the expected way with trade credit, relative trade credit and relative short-term financial debt. On the other hand hypotheses about equity and the financing deficit are not confirmed. The effect of a pecking order behaviour over a long period of time may provide an explanation of why these two hypotheses are not confirmed.
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Massmann, Michael, and James Mitchell. "Have UK and Eurozone Business Cycles Become More Correlated?" National Institute Economic Review 182 (October 2002): 58–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795010218200107.
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Recent estimates suggest that the UK business cycle is closer to the Eurozone business cycle than it was in the early 1990s. This paper investigates whether this phenomenon has been accompanied by increased correlation between UK and Eurozone business cycles. Considering a range of alternative measures of the business cycle we find, using 40 years of monthly industrial production data, no clear evidence for a sustained increase in correlation between UK and Eurozone business cycles. Instead, in the 1990s, the correlation between UK and Eurozone business cycles has been volatile relative to historical levels. It is only recently, i.e. since 1997, that the UK has become more correlated with the Eurozone, although the level of correlation is lower than against non-Eurozone countries. Importantly, the strength of these relationships is sensitive to how the business cycle is measured. Care should therefore be exercised when using business cycles estimates to test the relationship between UK and Eurozone business cycles.
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Kapounek, S., and J. Poměnková. "The endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria in the context of financial crisis: Evidence from the time-frequency domain analysis." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 59, No. 9 (October 4, 2013): 389–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/9/2013-agricecon.
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We provide the wavelet analysis of the economic cycle synchronization during the recent financial crisis. However, the global financial crisis caused economic cycles in most European countries to become more strongly synchronized without increasing of the real convergence process. Our contribution is an application of the singular value decomposition to identify and remove the long-term trend including outliers appearing in the year 2007–2010. We found that the historically greater integration provides more highly synchronized cycles in the core Euro area member countries.
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Škare, Marinko, and Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń. "THE SYNCHRONISATION BETWEEN FINANCIAL AND BUSINESS CYCLES: A CROSS SPECTRAL ANALYSIS VIEW." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 26, no. 4 (May 26, 2020): 907–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.12567.
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Our study bridges the gap between in previous research on the synchronization between financial and business cycles over a long period. Using the data for the UK from 1270 to 2016 we analyze the synchronization between financial and business cycles using spectral Granger causality (Breitung & Candelon, 2006). Our paper brings several important findings to the discussion on the financial and business cycle link. Our paper is the first one (to the best of our knowledge) that use data over a long period spanning several centuries. We use spectral analysis and advanced spectral analysis (SSA) and (MSSA) to study the relationship between financial and business cycles in the long run. Paper results show financial and business cycles series moves along over the medium-term spectrum. We find a strong link between the cyclical component in the output (real GDP series) and the cyclical component in the financial series (housing price, credit).