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Pidgeon, N. F. "Strategies and heuristics in individual decision-making." Thesis, University of Bristol, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/1983/55fca988-59c0-4463-9306-27eb28ded4b0.
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Hagman, William. "Affective Biases and Heuristics in Decision Making : Emotion regulation as a factor for decision making competence." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för datavetenskap, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-96364.
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Stanovich and West (2008) explored if measures of cognitive ability ignored some important aspects of thinking itself, namely that cognitive ability alone is not enough to generally prevent biased thinking. In this thesis a series of decision making (DM) tasks is tested to see if emotion regulation (ER) is a factor for the decision process and therefore should be a measured in decision making competence. A set of DM tasks was compiled involving both affective and cognitive dimensions. 400 participants completed an online web-survey. The results showed that ER ability was significantly associated with performance in various DM tasks that involved both heuristic and biased thinking. These findings suggest that ER can be a factor in decision making competence.
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Govender, Lovendran. "Heuristics in managerial decision making during company turnaround and uncertainty." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/59834.
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The ever-changing business landscape is becoming increasingly uncertain and complex. Negative environmental forces, often uncontrollable by companies, are frequently causing firms to pursue a state of turnaround to navigate out the spiral of decline they unfortunately enter. Managerial decision making is understood to be an important lever that firms possess with potential to enable or disable successful organisational turnaround, driving a business imperative for understanding. Heuristics, often referred to as shortcuts or rules of thumb, have enjoyed growing acceptance in academia as a valuable decision technique to combat uncertainty under decision constraints of time and cost. This research explored the use of heuristics by managerial decision makers during company turnaround, the relationship between heuristics and changes in company environment, and motivating factors for heuristics in conditions of company turnaround. The research was conducted as a qualitative exploratory and quasi-experimental study containing three purposefully designed vignettes prompting a decision to be made, followed by several open ended questions. Data was collected from thirteen semi-structured interviews with Senior Managers in various decision making positions across a firm undergoing turnaround. The use of vignettes to test heuristic use in a qualitative manner contrasts existing computational quantitative studies, contributing to future research in heuristic decision making and environmental influence. Key findings revealed the use of three heuristics, although not dominant, in conditions of turnarounds by managerial decision makers, namely the Take-the-best, Satisficing and Recognition heuristic. However, a blended approach, combining both rational and cognitive decision making, was the preferred approach. Heuristic use was found to be influenced by changes in the company environment and better suited during company turnaround, where uncertainty is evident. The study extends existing factors for heuristics by revealing that comfort level, decision impact, urgency, pressure and strategic importance motivate heuristic use in organisational turnaround. Identified heuristic development methods contribute to existing literature and provides guidance to companies intending to address uncertainty in company turnaround decision environments.Mini Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2017.
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Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
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Chan, Yu Man Norman Psychology Faculty of Science UNSW. "The effects of mood and judgmental heuristics on decision making under uncertainty." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Psychology, 2005. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/23933.
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Five experiments investigated the effects of mood and judgmental heuristics on decision making under uncertainty. According to the mood-and-general-knowledge model (Bless, 2000), the assimilation-accommodation model (Fiedler, 2000) and the numeric-priming account of anchoring (Jacowitz & Kahneman, 1995; Wong & Kwong, 2000), happy individuals should rely more on the anchoring heuristic in decision making under uncertainty. However, the semantic-priming account of anchoring (Strack & Mussweiler, 1997) and the processing account of mood (Bless, 2000; Fiedler, 2000) predict that it is sad individuals who should be more susceptible to the anchoring bias. Experiment 1 used a new methodological paradigm, which captures the key methodologies of past mood and anchoring studies to test these two competing hypotheses. The overall results of Experiment 1 found that neither positive nor negative mood influenced the reliance on the anchoring heuristic, but a post-hoc analysis suggests that happy participants relied more on the anchoring heuristic in making decisions for low personal relevance, low familiarity scenarios whereas sad participants were more susceptible to the anchoring heuristic in making high personal relevance, high familiarity decisions. Experiment 2 tested this suggestion and confirmed that personal relevance significantly moderated the effects of mood on the use of the anchoring heuristic. Experiment 3 replicated this result and showed that sad participants processed longer in the high personal relevance condition whereas happy participants were comparably fast in making high and low personal relevance decisions. These findings support the suggestion that it was changes in processing styles that were responsible for the effects of mood and personal relevance on the reliance of the anchoring heuristic. In addition, Experiment 3 found no evidence that familiarity moderated the effects of mood on anchoring. Experiment 4 extended these results to the domain of general knowledge questions but failed to show that an individual difference variable, the Need for Cognition (Cacioppo & Petty, 1982) moderated these effects. The fifth and final experiment extended these findings to a different kind of heuristic, the representativeness heuristic. It was predicted and found that, contrary to the previous results, happy participants relied more on the representativeness heuristic in the high personal relevance condition. These findings have important implications for the theories of mood, judgmental heuristics and decision making under uncertainty.
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Ronan, Daniel. "Decision making heuristics and biases in software project management: an experimental investigation." Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/37550.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedSoftware project development has been plagued with an infamous reputation for cost overruns, late deliveries, poor reliability and users' dissatisfaction. Much of this blame has been placed on the managerial side of software development. The Systems Dynamic Model of Software Project Management is a quantitative model of software project dynamics that is attempting to gain some valuable insight into the managerial side of developing software systems. The objective of this thesis is to use the Systems Dynamic Model's gaming interface to investigate managerial heuristic and biases in software project management. Specifically, three experiments were executed to determine the effect of anchoring on productivity estimation, the effect of poor cost estimation on staffing decisions and the effect of social loafing on a software project's staffing decisions, final cost and final duration.
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Crowder, Mark. "Decision-making in practice : the use of cognitive heuristics by senior managers." Thesis, University of Chester, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10034/314940.
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This thesis uses a grounded theory methodology to reveal the processes by which cognitive heuristics are used by senior managers to make decisions in a large UK local authority. The thesis is based on primary data, organisational documentation and an extensive and critical review of the pertinent literature. Primary data was generated over four years and involved detailed observation of 156 senior managers making a total of 513 decisions, together with formal interviews and informal discussions with these managers. The organisation under study provided an ideal context for this research since it offered a rich insight into management decision-making practices in diverse contexts such as social work and highways, and with varying degrees of urgency ranging from procurement decisions lasting several months to instant decisions concerning child protection. Furthermore, UK local government has been subject to drastic change in recent years, such as the introduction of private sector management practices and increased competition. This has been exacerbated by an austerity programme which means that local authorities, in common with much of the world, have to do a lot more with a lot less. The turbulent context of local government is, in Yin’s (2009) terms, an ‘exemplifying’ case study, and hence the issues raised in this study resonate far beyond the scope of this thesis. This thesis makes a number of significant contributions to knowledge. Firstly, original flow charts are developed that allow the underlying processes of heuristic decision-making to be identified, and these reveal that, whereas the academic literature treats heuristics as discrete entities, there is actually considerable interplay between them. Further, a new definition of the moral heuristic is developed, which allows researchers to view this heuristic at a higher, more conceptual level than has hitherto been possible. The thesis also extends the work of Daniel Kahneman and demonstrates that the role of the unconscious in decision-making is more complex than previously thought. For instance, intuitive heuristics can be used consciously and choice-based heuristics can be used unconsciously. It is also argued that the underlying processes of ‘classical’ theory are better explained by the degree of consciousness involved when making a decision, and not by the commonly accepted normative/behavioural distinction made by Herbert Simon and others. As such, this thesis represents an important contribution to the decision-making literature.
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Kelly, Máire. "Heuristics and priming : investigating NHS professionals' judgments and decision making in child observations." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 2014. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.675663.
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The complex: and important task of clinical assessment includes the completion of observations to inform consequent judgments and management decisions. The current study investigated the impact of priming and professional variables on psychologists' judgments and decision making about a child they observed. A novel experimental method was employed where participants were assigned to a primed or unprimed condition (through simulated referral letters), and then viewed a video of a simulated "assessment" session where the child's behaviour was constructed to be deliberately ambiguous. Participants provided hypotheses and ratings of the child's behaviour, predicted their planned actions as professionals, and judged their confidence in their assessment. Results suggested that priming did not have a significant influence on participant ratings of the child's behavior. Although, priming significantly increased participant confidence in their assessment, it did not significantly affect proposed actions. Participant variables (e.g., age, gender, years of experience) did not affect behavior ratings, but professional training did significantly influence hypotheses generation, whereby qualified psychologists' hypotheses had more non-pathologising content and increased focus on difficulties within the parent-child relationship, than did their pre-qualified counterparts. These results are discussed within their theoretical and empirical context, as are the study's limitations and potential to inform clinical assessment and professional training for psychologists.
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Van, Dyke Thomas P. (Thomas Peter). "The Effects of Alternative Presentation Formats on Biases and Heuristics in Human Decision Making." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1996. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc279303/.
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The purpose of this research was to determine whether changes in the presentation format of items in a computer display could be used to alter the impact of specific cognitive biases, and to add to the knowledge needed to construct theory-based guidelines for output design. The problem motivating this study is twofold. The first part of the problem is the sub-optimal decision making caused by the use of heuristics and their associated cognitive biases. The second part of the problem is the lack of a theoretical basis to guide the design of information presentation formats to counter the effects of such biases.
An availability model of the impact of changes in presentation format on biases and heuristics was constructed based on the findings of a literature review. A six-part laboratory experiment was conducted utilizing a sample of 205 student subjects from the college of business. The independent variable was presentation format which was manipulated by altering the visual salience or visual recency of items of information in a visual computer display. The dependent variables included recall, perceived importance, and the subjects' responses to three judgment tasks.
The results clearly demonstrate that changes in presentation format can be used to alter the impact of cognitive biases on human decision making. The results also provide support for the availability model, with the exception of the proposed influence of learning style. Learning style was found to have no significant impact on decision making whether alone or in combination with changes in presentation format.
The results of this investigation demonstrate that by using our knowledge of cognitive processes (e.g., the visual salience effect, the visual recency effect, and the availability heuristic), presentation formats can be altered in order to moderate the effects of certain biases and heuristics in human decision making. An understanding of these results may be useful in improving DSS design.
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Kim, Dong-Gook. "An Analysis of Ecological and Social Rationality: When are Lexicographic Heuristics Preferred?" unrestricted, 2008. http://etd.gsu.edu/theses/available/etd-08182008-212550/.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Georgia State University, 2008.Title from file title page. Thomas Whalen, committee chair; Julian Diaz III, C. S. Thachenkary, Rodney Schultz, committee members. Electronic text (168 p. : ill. (some col.)) : digital, PDF file. Description based on contents viewed November 3, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (p. 164-168).
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Albar, Fatima Mohammed. "An Investigation of Fast and Frugal Heuristics for New Product Project Selection." PDXScholar, 2013. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/1057.
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In the early stages of new product development, project selection is dominantly based on managerial intuition, rather than on analytic approaches. As much as 90% of all product ideas are rejected before they are formally assessed. However, to date, little is known about the product screening heuristics and screening criteria managers use: it has been suggested that their decision process resembles the "fast and frugal" heuristics identified in recent psychological research, but no empirical research exists. A major part of the product innovation pipeline is thus poorly understood.
This research contributes to closing this gap. It uses cognitive task analysis for an in-depth analysis of the new product screening heuristics of twelve experienced decision makers in 66 decision cases. Based on the emerging data, an integrated model of their project screening heuristics is created. Results show that experts adapt their heuristics to the decision at hand. In doing so, they use a much smaller set of decision criteria than discussed in the product development literature. They also combine heuristics into decision approaches that are simple, but more complex than "fast and frugal" strategies. By opening the black box of project screening this research enables improved project selection practices.
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Sra, Sana. "Circadian Variations and Risky Decision Making." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2019. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/scripps_theses/1291.
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Over the past decades, decision making under risk has garnered a great amount of attention both in the field of economics and psychology. Although state-dependent variabilities of risk taking are well-documented, little is known about the effects of a person’s preferred time of day, or chronotype, in risky decision making. Under circumstances of circadian mismatch (e.g., when an “early bird” makes decisions in the evening), research suggests that decision making may reflect a greater reliance on heuristics, such as using stereotypes in social judgments. However, the effects of circadian mismatch on heuristics in risky decision making are relatively unexplored. This paper looks into the effects of circadian mismatch on the reflection effect: a behavioral bias in financial decision making, wherein individuals are risk averse when facing potential gains, and risk seeking when facing potential losses. Participants will be randomly assigned to their circadian matched or circadian mismatched conditions and will play a series of financial gambling tasks with real monetary incentives. This study predicts that the reflection effect will be exacerbated in circadian mismatched individuals as compared to matched participants. Exploring such an effect could have real-world implications on decision making under risk by providing critical knowledge about the effects of time of day on our susceptibility to behavioral biases. It could therefore point to the existence of a more optimal time of day to engage in such critical decision making.
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Linford, Quinn S. "Decision Making in the Backcountry While Carrying a Cellular Phone." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2016. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/6135.
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The purpose of this study was to gain understanding about the influence of technology, specifically cellular phones, on decision making during potentially risky situations in the backcountry. Previous research in this area is contradictory and some studies indicate technology is influencing people to take more risks while others suggest it is not. Further confounding the relationship is the fact that previous studies have found people may be taking more risk in the presence of technology were based largely on respondent perceptions, not observation data. The current study used a scenario-based decision model to examine the difference in decision making between those who carried a cell phone on a hike and those who did not. A one-way ANCOVA revealed there was no statistical difference (F=2.18, p=.0898) between the two groups. This indicated people did not take more risks because they carried a cell phone into the backcountry. Risk tolerance and experience hiking long mountain hikes similar to the mountain used in the scenario were the only two variables that influenced decision making in this model. Because cell phones do not adversely influence decision making, it is proposed cell phones and other wireless communication devices be added as a recommended piece of gear to the 10 essentials to help reduce the time it takes for search and rescue to arrive on scene when help is needed.
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Daňková, Tereza. "Racionalita versus iracionalita v manažerském rozhodování." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-193768.
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The thesis focuses on rationality in decisions by managers. The terms rationality, irrationality and bounded rationality are defined in the first part. The current state of knowledge on the concept of bounded rationality in decision making is then followed by a specific consideration of managerial decision making. The chosen bounded rationality effects, including heuristics, are also described. The purpose of the second part of this study is to examine experimentally the differential uses of heuristics among the students of the Faculty of Management relative to completion of the Managerial Decision Making course. The effect of time to use of heuristics is examined as well.
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Campbell, Christoffer. "Boosting Through Structured Introspection : Exploring Decision-Making in Relation to the COVID-19 Pandemic." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för datavetenskap, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-166404.
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This thesis explores boosting to improve decision-making in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic using a structured introspection. Structured introspection is an intervention where individuals are prompted with and are asked to estimate the importance of a set of attributes relevant to the decision in order to limit the prevalence of potential cognitive biases. To test the intervention, 281 participants divided into an intervention and control group answered an online survey with a dilemma about COVID-19. The dilemma was whether Sweden should shut down the economy or keep it open during the COVID-19 pandemic. The intervention group was asked to rate how important the attributes “saving lives”, “saving the economy”, “concern for the health of the elderly and risk groups”, and “concern for the quality of life and well-being of all citizens” should be for their decision. The control group was only prompted with the question and asked to think carefully. All participants were asked a set of control variables such as risk perception for self and others and emotions when thinking about COVID-19. The results did not show a significant influence on choice on decisions based on the intervention. They did however show a significant correlation with choice on risk perception as well as a correlation between choice on the dependent variable and the attributes in the intervention group. The conclusion of the thesis is that structured introspection may not be suitable on a contemporary issue affecting participants directly, as they may already have strong opinions about the issue. Further and broader research needs to be conducted to determine in which circumstances this boost can be effective.
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Kazakova, Tatjana [Verfasser], and Daniel [Akademischer Betreuer] Geiger. "Strategic Decision Making under Uncertainty : Towards a Theory of Organizational Heuristics / Tatjana Kazakova ; Betreuer: Daniel Geiger." Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1137624841/34.
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Sinyard, David B. "The Investment Process Used By Private Equity Firms: Does The Affect Heuristic Impact Decision-Making?" Digital Archive @ GSU, 2013. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/bus_admin_diss/25.
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Individuals utilize heuristics in order to simplify problems, which may lead to biases in decision-making. The research question of this study is: “How does the affect heuristic impact the investment process of private equity decision-makers reviewing proposals?” Through an exploratory multi-case analysis, insight is provided into complex private equity decisions by studying biases in the investment process. This is a study of private equity groups’ (PEG) decision-making process when they consider businesses for investment. Qualitative data was generated from semi-structured interviews with twenty private equity decision-makers. The deliberative heuristics applied in the teaser review are learned from process experience and guide the deliberation on whether to proceed. Simplifying heuristics are applied in the more informal review process. Organizational learning was exhibited as the PEGs have modified their investment structures based on previous experiences. The study indicates that experience and learning lead to the construction of an affect heuristic that subsequently impacts investments. It also confirms the need for strategic decision-makers to recognize their own biases and adjust their processes accordingly.
A significant practical implication of this study is the insight provided into the views of the PEG decision-makers as they anticipate the need to supplement the management team is helpful to business owners and their advisors. The study highlights the opportunities for biases in PEG decision-making processes. Accessing decision-makers at larger PEGs and approaching more middle market firms would broaden the results.
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Fleischhut, Nadine. "Moral judgment and decision making under uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät II, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16820.
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Die vorliegende Dissertation untersucht, wie Menschen Urteile und Entscheidungen in moralischen Situationen unter Unsicherheit treffen. In theoretischer Hinsicht wird Verhalten in moralischen Situationen aus der Perspektive begrenzter und ökologischer Rationalität analysiert, die das Zusammenspiel zwischen Kognition und der Struktur der Umwelt betont. Empirisch ist das Ziel, moralische Urteile und Verhalten unter epistemischen Bedingungen zu untersuchen, denen Menschen in der realen Welt begegnen. Das erste Projekt diskutiert aus der Perspektive ökologischer Rationalität wie das Zusammenspiel von Heuristiken und Umwelt hilft, moralisches Verhalten zu verstehen, das inkonsistent erscheint, solange es durch Charaktereigenschaften erklärt wird. Aus dieser Perspektive ist es entscheidend, soziale Umwelten zu untersuchen, da Urteile und Verhalten in moralischen Situationen oft nicht durch speziell moralische Regeln sondern durch moralisch neutrale, soziale Heuristiken entstehen können, die den Zusammenhalt sozialer Gruppen fördern. Das zweite Projekt untersucht empirisch Entscheidungen in sozialen Dilemmata. Die Kernfrage ist, wie Kooperation durch den Risikograd geprägt wird, sowie durch die Art, wie Risikoinformationen erworben werden (durch Beschreibung oder Erfahrung), im Vergleich zu nicht-sozialen Situationen mit gleichem Risiko. Kooperation variierte systematisch mit dem Risikograd, aber wie Informationen erworben wurden war nur in den nicht-sozialen Situationen relevant. Prozessdaten und Teilnehmerberichte legen nahe, dass diese Diskrepanz auf Entscheidungsprozessen beruhen könnte, in denen Erwartungen über das Verhaltens anderer sowie die Höhe der Verdienste wichtiger sind als deren Wahrscheinlichkeit. Das dritte Projekt vergleicht Urteile in moralischen Dilemmata, in denen der Verlauf der Ereignisse noch ungewiss ist (Vorschau), mit Situationen, in denen bereits sicher ist, ob negative Nebeneffekte auftreten oder nicht (Rückschau). Die Ergebnisse zeigen einen Rückschaufehler in moralischen Urteilen sowie bei der Wahrscheinlichkeitseinschätzung der Nebeneffekte. Der Unterschied zwischen moralischen Urteilen unter Sicherheit und Unsicherheit wirft die Frage auf, inwieweit sich empirische Ergebnisse generalisieren lassen, die auf den üblicherweise untersuchten moralischen Dilemmata basieren, wie z.B. den „Trolley“-Fällen, in denen alles mit Sicherheit feststeht.In this dissertation I investigate how people make judgments and decisions in moral situations under uncertainty. Theoretically, behavior in moral situations is analyzed from the perspective of bounded and ecological rationality, which emphasizes the interplay between cognition and the structure of the environment. Empirically, the goal is to investigate moral judgment and behavior under epistemic conditions people encounter in the real world. The first project discusses from the perspective of ecological rationality how the interaction of heuristics and the environment helps explaining moral behavior that appears inconsistent from accounts referring to characteristics of the individual. This view also emphasizes the importance of studying social environments, as judgment and behavior in moral situations under uncertainty may often not result from specifically moral rules but instead from morally neutral social heuristics which serve the coherence of social groups. The second project empirically examines decisions in social dilemmas. The key question was how cooperation is shaped by different levels of risk and by the way information about risk is acquired (from description or from experience), compared to nonsocial situations with equivalent risks. Cooperation systematically varied with different levels of risk, yet the way in which information was acquired only mattered in nonsocial situations. Process data and self-reports indicated that this discrepancy may have resulted from decision processes that are more sensitive to expectations about others’ behavior and the size of rewards than to reward probabilities. The third project compared judgments in moral dilemmas when the course of events is still uncertain (foresight) with situations when it was already certain whether negative side-effects did or did not occur (hindsight). Results showed a hindsight effect for moral judgments, as well as for probability estimates of negative side-effects. As moral judgments differed under certainty and uncertainty, this raises concerns about generalizing empirical results from commonly investigated moral dilemmas, such as the “trolley” cases, in which everything is certain.
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Li, Tong. "How does people's social attachment influence their investment decision? Using empathy to explain availability bias." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2021. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/212614/1/Tong_Li_Thesis.pdf.
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By conducting an online lab experiment simulating how investors work with their financial managers, we investigate how empathy influences investors’ decision to maintain the working relationship with their financial managers and how empathy influences the availability bias in investors’ decision-making. We found that investors’ affective empathy is positively related to the duration of the relationship between them and their managers, even though they may have just experienced a loss. Also, investors’ affective and cognitive empathy positively moderates their availability bias, which means that investors with high empathy are more sensitive to information from other people.
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Heidenreich, Sebastian. "Do I care or do I not? : an empirical assessment of decision heuristics in discrete choice experiments." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2016. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=229468.
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Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are widely used across economic disciplines to value multi-attribute commodities. DCEs ask survey-respondents to choose between mutually exclusive hypothetical alternatives that are described by a set of common attributes. The analysis of DCE data assumes that respondents consider and trade all attributes before making these choices. However, several studies show that many respondents ignore attributes. Respondents might choose not to consider all attributes to simplify choices or as a preference, because some attributes are not important to them. However, empirical approaches that account for attribute non-consideration only assume simplifying choice behaviour. This thesis shows that this assumption may lead to misleading welfare conclusions and therefore suboptimal policy advice. The analysis explores 'why' attribute are ignored using statistical analysis or by asking respondents. Both approaches are commonly used to identify attribute non-consideration in DCEs. However, the results of this thesis suggest that respondents struggle to recall ignored attributes and their reasons for non-consideration unless attributes are ignored due to non-valuation. This questions the validity of approaches in the literature that rely on respondents' ability to reflect on their decision rule. Further analysis explores how the complexity of choices affects the probability that respondents do not consider all attributes. The results show that attribute consideration first increases and then decreases with complexity. This raises questions about the optimal design complexity of DCEs. The overall findings of the thesis challenge the applicability of current approaches that account for attribute non-consideration in DCEs to policy analysis and emphasis the need for further research in this area.
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Sephton, Katherine Alison. "Decision-making under information overload : visual representation and ‘fast and frugal’ heuristics as strategies for dealing with information overload." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/80342.
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Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2013.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The volume of information available to the individual today is greater than ever before. From sources that range from verbal to non-verbal, paper to electronic and audio to visual, there is a constant and ubiquitous supply of information. For managers in an organisational context, whose job it is to manage information from various sources and make decisions based on that, this proliferation of information can be overwhelming. As a result, decision-makers can experience information overload, which can have various detrimental effects on them. Both the problems that information overload can cause, as well as some suggested solutions to the effect are explored. A brief investigation follows into the way in which information in different forms is cognitively processed by individuals is explored. Two possible ways in which decision-makers can respond to the problem of information overload are examined. The first focuses on the visualisation of information and visual management in organisations, looking at two examples, the balanced scorecard and the oobeya room. The visualisation of information often integrates information from various sources, reducing its volume to facilitate cognitive processing. The second response to information overload looks at the use of fast and frugal heuristics. These heuristics ignore some of the available information to ease cognitive processing, resulting in faster decisions that use as little information as possible. Both of these two approaches are explored as potential decision support systems for decision-makers in an organisational context, separately and in combination. One approach is structured and planned, while the other is largely unplanned and intuitive. The similarities are investigated in the way that these two approaches structure information. Both methods aim to reduce the amount of cognitive processing for the decision-maker, minimising the chances of information overload occurring and can be used under certain appropriate conditions to minimise the negative effects of information overload on decision-makers in organisations to result in more effective decision-making processes.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die volume inligting wat beskikbaar is tot die individu vandag is groter as ooit tevore. Vanaf bronne wat wissel van verbale tot nie-verbale, papier na elektroniese- en klank tot visuele bronne, is daar 'n konstante en alomteenwoordige verskaffing van inligting. Vir bestuurders in 'n organisasiekonteks, wie se werk dit is om inligting uit verskillende bronne te bestuur en besluite op die hierdie verspreiding van inligting te basseer, kan dit oorweldigend wees. As gevolg hiervan kan besluitnemers ’n inligting-oorlading ervaar, wat verskeie nadelige effekte op hulle kan hê. Beide die probleme wat inligting-oorlading kan veroorsaak, asook 'n paar voorgestelde oplossings met betrekking tot die effek, word ondersoek. 'n Kort ondersoek kyk na die manier waarop die inligting in verskillende vorme kognitief deur die individue verwerk word. Twee moontlike maniere waarop besluitnemers kan reageer op die probleem van inligting-oorlading, word ondersoek. Die eerste fokus op die visualisering van inligting en visuele bestuur in organisasies, deur te kyk na twee voorbeelde: die gebalanseerde telkaart en die oobeya kamer. Die visualisering van inligting behels dikwels die integrasie van inligting uit verskeie bronne en so word die volume saamgevat om kognitiewe prosessering te fasiliteer. Die tweede reaksie op inligting-oorlading kyk na die gebruik van "snelle en spaarsame" heuristiese metodes. Hierdie heuristiese metodes ignoreer sommige van die beskikbare inligting wat kognitiewe prosessering verlig, wat individue in staat stel om vinniger besluite te neem en so min as moontlik inligting gebruik. Beide van hierdie twee benaderings word ondersoek as moontlike ondersteuningstelsels vir besluitnemings deur besluitnemers in 'n organisasiekonteks, beide afsonderlik en as ’n kombinasie. Die een benadering is gestruktureerd en beplan, terwyl die ander grootliks onbeplan en intuïtief is. Die ooreenkomste in die manier waarop hierdie twee benaderings inligting struktureer, word ondersoek. Beide metodes poog om die kognitiewe verwerkingslading vir die besluitnemer te verminder en so die kanse vir inligting-oorlading te verlaag. So kan dit gebruik word om onder gepaste toestande die negatiewe effekte van inligting-oorlading te verminder, sodat besluitnemers in organisasies meer effektiewe besluitnemingsprosesse kan implimenteer.
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Hammack, Taleri Lynn. "Detecting Structure in Activity Sequences: Exploring the Hot Hand Phenomenon." Wright State University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=wright1440498768.
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Bernroider, Edward, Nikolaus Obwegeser, and Volker Stix. "Analysis of Heuristic Validity, Efficiency and Applicability of the Profile Distance Method for Implementation in Decision Support Systems." Elsevier, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cor.2010.09.017.
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This article seeks to enhance acceptance of the profile distance method (PDM) in decision support
systems. The PDM is a multiple attributive based decision making as well as a multiple method
approach to support complex decision making and uses a heuristic to avoid computationally complex
global optimization. We elaborate on the usability of the method and question the heuristic used. We
present a bisection algorithm, which efficiently supports the discovery of transition profiles needed in
a user-friendly and practical application of the method. Additionally, we provide empirical evidence
showing that the proposed heuristic is efficient and delivers results within 5% of the global optimizer
for a wide range of data sets.
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Sjödin, Christoffer, and Sverker Gustafsson. "Incisive decisions? : A study of the affecting factors on fair-value decision making in five Swedish banks." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-167382.
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The fair-value hierarchy used in financial accounting has been criticized because of its complexity being the reason for several accounting issues. This study examines the underlying factors affecting decision makers in the process of fair-value accounting of financial instruments within the fair-value hierarchy. Research has been conducted through in-depth interviews with representatives of five Swedish banks. The findings have been analysed with a frame of reference built on prior judgment and decision making research. The results of the study show that the extent of the affecting factors vary between different banks depending on the banks' individual prerequisites.
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Woods, Jeremy A. "Dominant Logic, Decision-making Heuristics and Selective Information Processing as Antecedents to Financial Escalation of Commitment in Small Family Firms." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1439301333.
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Ross, Lindsey L. "The role of heuristics in sexual decision making among college students determining when "a known partner becomes a safe partner" /." Laramie, Wyo. : University of Wyoming, 2008. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1798967371&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=18949&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Chraibi, Abdelahad. "A decision making system for operating theater design : application of facility layout problem." Thesis, Saint-Etienne, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015STET4017/document.
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Dans les dernières décennies, l'augmentation de la consommation des services de soins et la croissance de la population ont fait de l'élimination du gaspillage et l'amélioration continue de la productivité de plus en plus cruciale pour les hôpitaux. La productivité et l'efficacité d'un hôpital dépendent des conditions de travail des soignants qui sont influencés fortement par l'organisation des lieux de travail et des installations [Dares (2013)]. L’agencement des installations consiste à "déterminer l'organisation physique d'un système de production et de trouver l’arrangement le plus efficace de ‘n’ installations dans ‘n’ positions" [Singh et Sharma (2006)]. L’agencement des installations a un grand impact sur la productivité et l'efficacité du fonctionnement d'un hôpital. Etant conscient de ce besoin, le travail que nous présentons vise à trouver une solution à l’agencement des salles du Bloc Opératoire "le coeur de l'hôpital", ainsi que les salles annexes en proposant un outil intelligent que nous mettons à la disposition des maitres d’ouvrages pour optimiser leur conception du bloc opératoire. Les méthodes que nous avons explorées pour la réalisation de ce travail sont les méthodes exactes, les heuristiques, les métaheuristiques et les méthodes intelligentes, ce qui nous a permis de comparer les différentes approches afin de fournir la meilleure solution pour différents scénarios de problèmes. Nous présentons les contributions majeures de notre travail, à commencer par l'application de la programmation mathématique en nombres entiers mixtes (Mixed Integer Programming (MIP)) pour résoudre le problème d’agencement du bloc opératoire (Operating Theater Layout Problem (OTLP)) comme la première contribution scientifique. Ce travail considère trois structures différentes (multi-section, multi-étage et multi-rangé) dans deux types d'environnement différents, tout en optimisant deux fonctions objectifs différents. La combinaison de ces différentes composantes donne lieu à neuf modèles MIP pour résoudre l’OTLP pour lesquels une solution optimale a été atteinte pour des problèmes avec jusqu'à quarante salles. L'utilisation de Systèmes Multi-Agents (MAS) pour résoudre le problème d’agencement des installations est la deuxième contribution scientifique que nous présentons dans le cinquième chapitre. Dans la littérature, on retrouve un seul travail [Tarkesh et al., (2009)] ayant appliqué le MAS pour résoudre des problèmes de petites tailles, ce qui rend notre travail, le premier adoptant MAS pour répondre à la fois le FLP sous environnement statique et dynamique pour des problèmes de grande taille en utilisant un algorithme en trois étapes pour résoudre OTLP. La plate-forme multi-agents développée exploite les trois différents protocoles de communication d’agents, à savoir la coordination, la coopération et la négociation pour concevoir différentes architectures d’agents afin de faire face à l’OTLP statique et dynamique. La dernière contribution consistant en l'utilisation de l’optimisation par essaim de particules (Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)) sous une représentation continue de l’espace de recherche pour résoudre le problème d’agencement multi-rangée est présentée dans le sixième chapitre. Puisque la PSO est généralement utilisé pour résoudre les problèmes d’affectation ou les FLP avec une représentation discrète, la formulation actuelle est parmi les rares travaux traitant la représentation continue du FLP. Nous avons conçu une nouvelle technique de codage des particules et des heuristiques appropriées pour générer des solutions initiales et pour effectuer la procédure de recherche locale. Une autre nouveauté est liée à l'application de la PSO à un problème de structure multi-rangé, qui n'a pas été abordé auparavant car à notre connaissance, les travaux avec la PSO ont formulé le FLP comme une structure d’une seule rangée ou dans le meilleur des scénarios, comme une structure à deux rangéesIn the last decades, the important increasing consumption of health care and the growing of population make elimination of waste and continuous productivity improvement more and more critical for hospitals to provide their care services effectively and efficiently. The productivity and efficiency of a hospital depends on the caregivers working conditions, which are impacted greatly by the work place and the facilities organization [Dares (2013)]. Facilities planning “determines the physical organization of a production system and finding the most efficient arrangement of ‘n’ indivisible facilities in ‘n’ locations” [Singh & Sharma (2006)]. Thus, facilities planning has a great impact on the productivity and efficiency of running a hospital. Being aware of this need, the work we present aims to find a solution to facilities planning for the Operating Theater “the heart of hospital” by proposing an intelligent tool we make available to decision makers for optimizing their operating theater design. Our research work focuses on the use of operational research methods in order to find a solution for this optimization problem. Methods we explored for the realization of this work were variant, namely exact algorithm, heuristics, metaheuristics and intelligent methods, which allow us to compare different issues in order to provide the best solution to different scenarios of problems. Thus, in this dissertation we present the major contribution of our work, starting with the application of Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) to solve Operating Theater Layout Problem (OTLP) as the first scientific contribution. This work considers three different formulations (i.e. the multi-sections, the multi-floors and the multi-rows) in two different environment types (i.e. static and dynamic) while optimizing two different objective functions (i.e. to minimize the total traveling cost and to maximize the total adjacency rate). The combination of these different components gives rise to nine MIP models to solve the OTLP for which optimal solution was provided to problems with until forty facilities. These contributions are presented in the third and fourth chapters. The use of Multi-Agent System (MAS) to solve Facility Layout Problem (FLP) is the second scientific contribution we present in chapter five. In literature, only one work [Tarkesh et al., (2009)] applied the MAS to solve small sized problems, which makes our work the first one adopting MAS to address both the static and dynamic FLP for large sized problems using a novel algorithm running in three steps to solve OTLP. The developed multi-agent platform exploit the three different agents’ protocols of communication, namely coordination, cooperation and negotiation to conceive different agents’ architectures to deal with the static and dynamic OTLP. The last contribution consisting on the use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) under continuous layout representation to solve multi-rows FLP is presented in chapter six. Since the PSO is generally used to solve assignment problems or discrete FLP, the actual formulation is among the few works dealing with the continuous one. This leads us to conceive a novel encoding technique and the appropriate heuristics to generate initial solutions and to perform the local search procedure. Another novelty is related to the application of PSO to a multi-rows layout problem, which was not addressed before. To the best of our knowledge, PSO works usually formulate the FLP as a single row or in the best of scenarios, as a double-rows problem
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Drvoštěp, Tomáš. "Ekonomie vychýleného odhadu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-193409.
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This thesis investigates optimality of heuristic forecasting. According to Goldstein a Gigerenzer (2009), heuristics can be viewed as predictive models, whose simplicity is exploiting the bias-variance trade-off. Economic agents learning in the context of rational expectations (Marcet a Sargent 1989) employ, on the contrary, complex models of the whole economy. Both of these approaches can be perceived as an optimal response complexity of the prediction task and availability of observations. This work introduces a straightforward extension to the standard model of decision making under uncertainty, where agents utility depends on accuracy of their predictions and where model complexity is moderated by regularization parameter. Results of Monte Carlo simulations reveal that in complicated environments, where few observations are at disposal, it is beneficial to construct simple models resembling heuristics. Unbiased models are preferred in more convenient conditions.
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Bieneck, Steffen. "Soziale Informationsverarbeitung in der juristischen Urteilsfindung : experimentelle Untersuchungen zur Ankerheuristik." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2006. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2006/784/.
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Heuristiken der Urteilsbildung umfassen bottom-up bzw. schemagesteuerte Strategien innerhalb der sozialen Informationsverarbeitung, mit deren Hilfe trotz unsicherer Datenlage hinreichend genaue Urteile gefällt werden können. Die Anker- und Anpassungsheuristik als eine Form solcher Faustregeln beschreibt im Wesentlichen die Wirkung von vorgegebenen Zahlen (den so genannten Ankerwerten) auf numerische Schätzungen. Urteile unter Unsicherheit sind zum Beispiel im Bereich der Rechtsprechung zu beobachten, wobei die Entscheidungsprozesse hier eher normativ auf der Basis der vorliegenden Informationen, d.h. einer datengesteuerten Verarbeitung, erfolgen sollten.
In einer Serie von drei Experimenten wurde die Ankerheuristik auf den Bereich der Rechtsprechung übertragen. Mit Hilfe der Vignettentechnik wurden N = 229 Rechtsreferendare sowie N = 600 Studierende der Rechtswissenschaften zu ihrem Strafverhalten befragt. Im Mittelpunkt standen drei Zielsetzungen: (1) die Replikation und Erweiterung der Ankereffekts in Bezug auf eine größere Gruppe von Deliktarten; (2) die Analyse individueller Unterschiede in der Ankernutzung unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Persönlichkeitsvariablen (Need for Cognition und Need for Cognitive Closure) sowie (3) die Anregung zu verstärkter systematischer Informationsverarbeitung durch die Indizierung einer Genauigkeitsmotivation.
Der Ankereffekt in der juristischen Urteilsfindung konnte für die verschiedenen Deliktgruppen repliziert werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die wahrgenommene Schwere der geschilderten Taten mit dem Strafmaß korrelierte. Dieser Zusammenhang wurde durch die Einführung von Ankerwerten deutlich reduziert. Entgegen den bisherigen Untersuchungen war zwar auch bei den Rechtsreferendaren ein Ankereffekt zu beobachten, der jedoch geringer ausfiel als bei den Studierenden der Rechtswissenschaften. Im Hinblick auf die Persönlichkeitsmerkmale konnte die Erwartung bestätigt werden, dass ein geringes Kognitionsbedürfnis sowie ein hohes Geschlossenheitsbedürfnis mit höherer Anfälligkeit für die Ankerheuristik einhergehen. Die Erzeugung eines Rechtfertigungsdrucks dagegen veranlasste die Probanden, sich intensiver mit den Materialien zu beschäftigen und eher datengeleitet vorzugehen. Implikationen für die juristische Praxis werden diskutiert.
Decisions are usually based on beliefs about the likelihood that an uncertain event will occur (i.e., the results of an election or the liability of the accused). In estimating the likelihood of those events people often revert to heuristics as a theory-driven processing strategy in order to reduce the effort of the decision-making process. On the one hand heuristics might be quite helpful in controlling information processing; on the other hand they can lead to systematic biases in judgments. Anchoring and adjustment describe a judgmental heuristic, where individuals gauge numerical size by starting from an initial arbitrary or irrelevant value (an anchor) and adjusting it during the subsequent course of judgment to arrive at their final judgment. However, the adjustment of the judgment typically remains insufficient, thus leading to judgments that are biased in the direction of the starting value.
The concept of judgmental heuristics can be applied to legal decision making. Legal decision-making is normatively defined as data-driven, which means that judgements about the culpability of a defendant need to be corroborated by evidence specific to the case at hand. Individuals involved in this process are required to assess the evidence without being affected by personal feelings and beliefs or by extraneous evidence.
A series of three experiments tested the impact of anchoring and adjustment on legal decision making. Using the vignette technique, N = 229 junior barristers and N = 600 law students evaluated scenarios describing criminal offences. Apart from replicating the anchoring effect in different samples, the studies explored the impact of individual differences in personality variables (need for cognition and cognitive closure) on the anchoring effect. Further, a strategy to promote data-driven processing by inducing an accuracy motivation was evaluated.
The results clearly indicate an anchoring effect in legal decision-making. The results showed a strong correlation between the perceived severity of the cases and the recommended sentence. This correlation was significantly reduced when an anchor was introduced. In contrast to previous studies, junior barristers showed a less extreme bias in their judgments compared to law students. In terms of individual differences regarding the readiness to engage in elaborate information processing the results showed a higher susceptibility for the anchoring information when need for cognition was low and need for cognitive closure was high. Introducing an accuracy motivation prompted the participants to engage in more data-driven processing, thus reducing the anchoring effect. The implications for social cognition research and legal practice are discussed.
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Silva, Paulo Darcy Teixeira da. "Vieses do decisor que podem influenciar sua tomada de decisão." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/8744.
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A pesquisa aqui representada teve por objetivo identificar quais vieses podem influenciar os tomadores de decisões estratégicas de organizações brasileiras localizadas no estado do Rio de Janeiro. O trabalho realizado apoiou-se em questionário adaptado de Bazerman (2004). A partir de estudos sobre o cognitivo, este autor apresenta as heurísticas e respectivos vieses, objetos desta dissertação. Os tipos de pesquisas utilizados foram a bibliográfica e a de campo. Esta pesquisa de campo foi realizada com presidentes e diretores executivos do ambiente corporativo. Em suas funções, são eles os responsáveis por decisões estratégicas de empresas brasileiras localizadas no Brasil. A pesquisa revelou que os vieses apresentados por Bazerman (2004) foram identificados nos executivos entrevistados.
The objective of this investigation was to identify the biases that can influence strategic decision makers in Brazilian organizations located in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The investigation was based on a questionnaire adapted from Bazerman (2004). Based on studies on cognition, this author presents the heuristics and respective biases, which are the object of this dissertation. Chairmen and CEOs who are responsible for the strategic decisions of Brazilian corporations in Brazil were the objects of the field research. The investigation revealed that the biases pointed out by Bazerman (2004) were identified in the executives that were interviewed.
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Banuazizi, Fard Amir Hossein. "Decision making for IT service selection in Swedish SMEs : A study with focus on Swedish Small and Medium Sized Enterprises." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Informatik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-25071.
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Problem There is a lack of knowledge about how Swedish SMEs make decisions on IT service selection. There is also lack of information about the attributes of IT service providers that are most important to Swedish SMEs. By discovering these attributes, IT service providers could focus on improving their services in those dimensions and become more attractive for Swedish small and medium enterprises. Purpose The purpose of this research is to investigate the decision making process over selection of IT services for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in Sweden. Additionally, this research intends to discover the most important features (attributes) of an IT service provider in its selection. What are the steps involved in decision-making process? What decision-making methods can be used to help explain the process that goes on in the minds of the decision makers? What aspects influence their behaviour when decision makers prefer one service provider to another? IT service comprises of internet-based services such as web hosting, email services, online backup services and cloud apps or locally offered IT services such as IT helpdesk. The candidates who were interviewed were employees or entrepreneurs who work and live in Sweden. Method This research was conducted with an inductive approach using mono method for semi-structured interviews for primary data collection. Secondary data collection was multiple-source through literature reviews in order to learn about different attributes and current knowledge about this subject. The research method was qualitative with exploratory strategy in order to get insights into managers’ decision-making processes. Sampling was non-probability purposive method with sample size as saturation method. The focus was illustrative and method chosen as typical case. Conclusion The conclusions of this thesis illustrates that the important attributes (features) of IT services required by Swedish SMEs are the requirement that the service is being offered from Sweden, due to tax conformity laws and security matters. Moreover, SAT, WADD, FRQ and EBA are decision-making heuristics in use by the companies in selection of suitable IT services.
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Potgieter, Burger Gericke. "Decisions and disinformation : an evaluation of the usefulness of the Fast and Frugal Heuristics Programme in uncovering implicature-type disinformation." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/19992.
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Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis investigates ways in which the Fast & Frugal Heuristics (F&FH) programme in the field of Judgment and Decision Making (JDM) theory can be brought to bear on the phenomenon of disinformation. The study applies existing theory to develop an argument around the capacity of the F&FH framework to respond in a normative, descriptive and prescriptive fashion specifically to implicature-type disinformation. This leads to conclusions about the usefulness of the programme for a specific field that is supposed to be within the ambit of the programme. The study attempts to answer the research question by examining the philosophical and developmental history of JDM and of disinformation as a theme of inquiry. With the necessary background as context, the phenomenon of disinformation is investigated, specifically in the case of advertisements. Specific focus is given to pictorial metaphor that may lead to disinformation. The study concludes that F&FH only succeeds to some extent in its descriptive capacity, whilst it fails to provide normative or prescriptive insights when faced with implicature-type disinformation in the following ways: firstly, proponents of the F&FH programme seem selfcontradictory about the value of F&FH as a decision making theory – on the one hand they are generally positive about the its descriptive, normative and prescriptive abilities, whilst fully admitting to fundamental problems in every aspect of the theory and its applications. Secondly, even though there is a general admission of the importance of social and cultural elements in decision making, F&FH still remains intrinsically individualistic. As such it will fail to recognise deception and disinformation as those form part of a language act that is specifically designed around hidden motives and specialised persuasion techniques. Thirdly, F&FH will not be able to break free from the underlying issues it faces without breaking free from its philosophical underpinnings. F&FH still remains primarily empiricist through its behaviourist/positivist assumptions and application and as such fails to recognise the validity of concepts such as meaning, belief and attitude.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die tesis ondersoek die wyses waarop die Fast & Frugal Heuristics (F&FH) program in die veld van besluitnemingsteorie van toepassing gemaak kan word op die verskynsel van disinformasie. Die studie gebruik bestaande teorie in terme van normatiewe, voorskrywende en beskrywende toepassings om argument te ontwikkel rondom die kapasiteit van die F&FH raamwerk om te reageer op spesifiek implikatuur-tipe disinformasie. Dit lei tot gevolgtrekkings oor die bruikbaarheid van die program vir ‘n spesifieke veld wat veronderstel is om binne die bestek van die program te val. Die studie poog om die navorsingsvraag te antwoord deur die filosofiese en ontwikkelingsgeskiedenis van besluitnemingsteorie asook disinformasie te ondersoek. Met die nodige agtergrond as konteks word die verskynsel van disinformasie deur implikasie ondersoek, spesifiek in die geval van die advertensies. Daar word spesifiek gefokus op advertensies waar metafore wat ontwikkel word deur visuele beelde waardeur disinformasie geïmpliseer kan word. Die studie maak die gevolgtrekking dat F&FH slegs tot ’n mate sukses behaal as beskrywende teorie terwyl dit nie suksesvol toegepas kan word as normatiewe en voorskrywende teorie nie. Die volgende probleme word uitgelig: eerstens, voorstaanders van die F&FH program hou teenstrydige perspektiewe voor – aan die een kant is hulle oor die algemeen positief oor die teorie se beskrywende, normatiewe en voorskrywende kapasiteite terwyl hulle openlik getuig van die grondliggende probleme in bykans elke faset van die teorie en sy toepassings. Tweedens, ten spyte daarvan dat daar erkenning gegee word aan die sosiale en kulturele aspekte van besluitneming bly F&FH primêr individualisties. As sulks sal dit faal om valshede en disinformasie te herken aangesien beide elemente is van ’n taalaksie wat spesifiek ontwerp is rondom versteekte motiewe en gespesialiseerde oorredingstegnieke. Derdens, F&FH kan nie afstand doen van die onderliggende probleme sonder om weg te breek van die onderliggende filosofiese grondslag nie. F&FH bly hoofsaaklik empiristies deur die behavioristiese/positiwistiese eienskappe in die onderliggende aannames en toepassings – as sulks gee dit nie erkenning aan die geldigheid van konsepte soos betekenis, oortuiging en houding nie.
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Szarek, Harmony Kristin. "Subjectivity in Expert Decision Making: Risk Assessment, Acceptability, and Cognitive Heuristics Affecting Endangered Species Act Listing Judgments for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Grizzly Bear." The Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1430998102.
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Amein, Hussein Aly Abbass. "Computational intelligence techniques for decision making : with applications to the dairy industry." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2000. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/36867/1/36867_Digitised%20Thesis.pdf.
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Skelton, Ross Alexander. "The impact of home loan key facts sheets on borrowers' comparisons of loan costs." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2015. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/91053/4/Ross_Skelton_Thesis.pdf.
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This thesis evaluates the effectiveness of the prescribed design and distribution requirements of the Australian Government's home loan key facts sheets (KFS) aimed at helping borrowers compare loan costs. The findings show that despite effectively improving borrower decision-making, few borrowers were aware of their existence and function. It was also demonstrated that KFS have had limited market impact over the four year window since introduction, likely due to the requirement that KFS provision is not required unless formally requested by a borrower. Recommendations include transferring the burden of disclosure to lenders in the first instance to address this information gap.
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Brusattin, Lorenzo. "The impact of political sophistication on the use cognitive shortcuts: evidence from experiments and secondary data." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/85409.
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This research project assesses the role played by political sophistication in terms of itsimpact on the voters’ resort to cognitive shortcuts, with reference both to the consciousand non-conscious components of voting decisions. The investigation scrutinisesempirically the way both sophisticated and unsophisticated individuals make politicaljudgments when prompted with cognitive cues in three different settings. In each ofthem a specific type of cue impinges on the political judgment of individuals at adifferent level and leads to a specific decisional outcome. The overall findings castdoubts on the virtues of heuristic reasoning as effective remedy for voters who have tofind their bearings in the ballot box, but they also downplay the importance of politicalsophistication when visual or subliminal cues are involved in the decision.Aquest projecte de recerca avalua el paper exercit per la sofisticació política en termesdel seu impacte sobre el recurs dels votants als atalls cognitius, amb referència tant alscomponents conscients i no conscients de les decisions de vot. La investigació examinaempíricament la manera com ambdós individus sofisticats i no sofisticats fan judicispolítics quan si li estimuli amb senyals cognitives de tres tipus diferents. En cada und'ells un tipus específic de atall incideix en el judici polític dels individus en un nivelldiferent i condueix a un resultat específic de presa de decisions. Els resultats generalsposen en dubte les virtuts del raonament heurístic com a remei eficaç per als votants ques’han d'orientar a les urnes, sinó que també minimitzen la importància de la sofisticaciópolítica, quan senyals visuals o subliminals estan involucrats en la decisió.
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Proeger, Till Eduard Verfasser], Kilian [Akademischer Betreuer] [Bizer, Markus [Akademischer Betreuer] Spiwoks, and Claudia [Akademischer Betreuer] Keser. "Analyzing the Analyst. Heuristics and Biases, Group Decision-Making and Rational Herding in Forecasting Experiments / Till Eduard Proeger. Gutachter: Markus Spiwoks ; Claudia Keser. Betreuer: Kilian Bizer." Göttingen : Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1054542309/34.
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Koort, Hannes. "Room for More of Us? : Important Design Features for Informed Decision-Making in BIM-enabled Facility Management." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Människa-datorinteraktion, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-447217.
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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is becoming imperative across building disciplines to improve communication and workflow from the first blueprint. Maintenance and facility management is however lagging behind in adoption and research of BIM. Utilizing research-through-design, this study explores BIM-enabled facility management and the critical practice of decision-making at the Celsius building in Uppsala. Contextual design and inquiry were applied to identify and suggest important design features that support decisions related to the task of establishing maximum room occupation. Results show that facility managers can make use of fuzzy multicriteria decision-making and expert heuristics to independently reach conclusions. Important design features were found to heavily rely on the existing building models, where context-view filtered to room capacity data in the existing BIM-system effectively supported the users’ assessment of data. The filtered, aggregated information presented in a simplified mobile format was insufficient for decision-making, suggesting that the building model was more important than initially perceived.
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Ahmadi, Jah Robert Roham, Daniel Chatten, and Ali Hesen Sabah. "Analysera eller gå på magkänsla? : Hur svenska chefer använder analys och intuition i sina beslut under Coronakrisen." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för organisation och entreprenörskap (OE), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-104827.
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En kris såsom Coronapandemin är en extrem situation som skiljer sig från normala förhållanden och kräver att rätt beslut tas. Det sätter press på chefen i en organisation att fatta ett beslut som många gånger är improviserat, dels på grund av tidspress och stress, dels på grund av att varje kris är unik där det är otydligare vad som är rätt och fel beslut. Det beslut som chefen tar under en kris kan många gånger skilja sig från hur beslutet hade tagits under en normal situation. Bör chefen göra mer analyser före beslutet tas eftersom krisen är så pass komplex eller bör chefen i stället förlita sig mer på sin magkänsla eftersom krisens komplexitet är alltför omfattande att göra en analys av? Det är en fråga som har fått mycket uppmärksamhet inom beslutsforskning, inte minst under extrema situationer och kriser såsom en pandemi. Syftet med denna studie är att öka förståelsen för hur chefer hanterar det improviserande beslutsfattandet som uppstår under en kris. I studien sätts analytiska beslut i kontrast till beslut baserade på intuition eller magkänsla, men öppnar samtidigt upp för en möjlighet att båda kan kombineras. Intervjuer har gjorts med chefer från olika branscher runtom i Sverige för att öka förståelsen för krisbeslut under Coronapandemin. Studien visar att de flesta chefer använder analys eller kombinerar analys med intuition. Endast ett fåtal chefer tenderar att enbart använda intuition. Vidare framkommer det att hur chefen betraktar krisen får en effekt på vilka beslut som tas. Betraktas pandemin enbart som ett hot väljer chefen att fokusera på interna aktiviteter som ämnar lindra pandemins negativa påverkan i organisationen och stödja medarbetarna. Väljer chefen att även betrakta pandemin som en möjlighet så öppnar det upp för externa aktiviteter som kan dra nytta av pandemin, såsom att expandera verksamheten till och bredda kontaktnätverken för nya affärsmöjligheter. I de allra flesta beslut framkommer det att de baseras på ett nära samspel och kommunikation med andra aktörer. Det är sällan som ett beslut tas utan någon som helst kommunikation med någon annan. Denna kommunikation tycks ha motarbetat de negativa effekter som olika biaser medför i besluten. Exempelvis är cheferna mindre partiska när andras perspektiv tas med i beaktning före ett beslut tas. Slutligen tror de flesta cheferna att denna pandemi har gjort dem till en bättre beslutsfattare och vissa tror att tidigare stressfulla situationer och kriser har varit till stor hjälp även under Coronapandemin.A crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic is an extreme situation that differs from day-to-day situations and require that the right decisions be made. Such extreme situations put pressure on managers in organizations to make decisions that many times are improvised, in part because of time pressure and stress, and in part because each crisis is unique and makes it harder to know what the right decision is. The decisions managers make during a crisis are often different from how those decisions would have been made during a normal situation. Should the manager analyse the situation before the decision is made because the crisis is so complex, or should the manager instead follow his or her gut feeling because the crisis’ complexity is too overwhelming to possibly analyse? Such a question has received much attention in research of decision making, not least under extreme situations and crisis such as a pandemic. The purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of how managers deal with the improvised decision making that occur during a crisis. This study contrasts analytical decisions to intuitive decisions, while at the same time opens for the possibility that both styles of decision making could be combined. Interviews have been made with managers from different industries throughout Sweden to increase the understanding of crisis decision making during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study shows that most managers use analysis or combine analysis with intuition. Few managers tend to use intuition only. Furthermore, this study shows that the way the manager views the crisis can affect the decisions that he or she makes. If the manager views the merely as a threat, he or she will tend to focus on internal activities aimed at reducing the negative effects caused by the pandemic on the organisation and their members. If the manager chooses also to view the pandemic as an opportunity, it can lead to external activities that can take advantage of the pandemic, by for example expanding their business and business network. The study shows that most decisions have been made through communication and interplay with other actors. Only few decisions have been made without any communication or interplay whatsoever. The fact that most decisions have been made through communication with others seem to have reduced the effect of different biases. Managers have become less partial when other people’s perspectives have been included in the decisions. Finally, most managers believe that this pandemic has made them a better decision maker, and some believe that prior stressful situations and crisis have greatly assisted them during this pandemic.
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Mishra, Arul. "The influence of spatial groupings on consumer decisions." Diss., University of Iowa, 2007. http://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/176.
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Soriano, Flavio de Oliveira. "Overconfidence and confirmation bias: are future managers vulnerable?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13497.
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Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979b). Those cognitive shortcuts are taken by the brain to cope with complexity and time limitation of decisions, by reducing the burden of information processing (Hodgkinson et al, 1999; Newell and Simon, 1972). Although crucial for decision-making, heuristics come at the cost of occasionally sending us off course, that is, make us fall into judgment traps (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Over fifty years of psychological research has shown that heuristics can lead to systematic errors, or biases, in decision-making. This study focuses on two particularly impactful biases to decision-making – the overconfidence and confirmation biases. A specific group – top management school students and recent graduates - were subject to classic experiments to measure their level of susceptibility to those biases. This population is bound to take decision positions at companies, and eventually make decisions that will impact not only their companies but society at large. The results show that this population is strongly biased by overconfidence, but less so to the confirmation bias. No significant relationship between the level of susceptibility to the overconfidence and to the confirmation bias was found.
Tomadores de decisão muitas vezes usam 'regras gerais', ou heurística, para ajudá-los a lidar com situações de tomada de decisão (Kahneman e Tversky, 1979b). Esses atalhos cognitivos são tomados pelo cérebro para lidar com a complexidade e pressão de tempo da tomada de decisão, reduzindo assim a carga de processamento de informação (Hodgkinson et al , 1999; Newell e Simon , 1972). Embora fundamental para a tomada de decisões, a heurística tem o custo de, ocasionalmente, nos tirar do curso, isto é, fazer-nos cair em armadilhas de julgamento (Tversky e Kahneman, 1974). Mais de 50 anos de pesquisa em psicologia tem mostrado que a heurística pode levar a erros sistemáticos, ou vieses, na tomada de decisão. Este estudo se concentra em dois vieses particularmente impactantes para a tomada de decisão - o excesso de confiança e o viés de confirmação. Um grupo específico – estudantes de administração e recém-formados de escolas de negócio internacionalmente renomadas – foi submetido a experimentos clássicos para medir seu nível de suscetibilidade a esses dois vieses. Esta população tende a assumir posições de decisão nas empresas, e, eventualmente, tomar decisões que terão impacto não só nas suas empresas, mas na sociedade em geral. Os resultados mostram que essa população é fortemente influenciada por excesso de confiança, mas nem tanto pelo viés de confirmação. Nenhuma relação significativa entre o excesso de confiança e a suscetibilidade ao viés de confirmação foi encontrada.
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Hermann, Daniel Dr [Verfasser], Holger [Akademischer Betreuer] Rau, Claudia [Gutachter] Keser, and Kilian [Gutachter] Bizer. "The influence of moral costs and heuristics on individual decision making: Five essays in behavioral economics / Daniel Dr. Hermann ; Gutachter: Claudia Keser, Kilian Bizer ; Betreuer: Holger Rau." Göttingen : Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1169912311/34.
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Cazzari, Roberto Bomgiovani. "Tomada de decisão, heurísticas e vieses na análise das demonstrações contábeis." Universidade de São Paulo, 2016. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12136/tde-24022017-101355/.
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Essa tese foi desenvolvida com vistas a responder ao seguinte problema de pesquisa:as heurísticas e os vieses influenciam o processo decisório dos indivíduos quando confrontados com demonstrações financeiras e contábeis publicadas pelas empresas? Baseando-se na Prospect Theory de Kahneman e Tversky, buscou-se verificar como as heurísticas da ancoragem, representatividade e disponibilidade geravam vieses e influenciavam o modo como os usuários tomam suas decisões utilizando informações de cunho contábil e financeiro. Para tanto, foram submetidos questionários contendo situações de decisão junto aos estudantes de graduação da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da Universidade de São Paulo e aos analistas profissionais de uma grande instituição financeira brasileira. 369 estudantes e 55 analistas responderam o questionário proposto. Para evitar com que os resultados pudessem não ser confiáveis, nenhum dos respondentes sabiam que o questionário buscava identificar vieses no processo de tomada de decisão. Para os colaboradores, foi exposto que a pesquisa versava sobre o processo de tomada de decisão com base na divulgação de informações contábeis e financeiras, sem fazer qualquer menção ao estudo das finanças comportamentais ou vieses. Os resultados obtidos divergiram quando foram comparados os dois públicos estudados nessa tese: analistas de mercado de capitais e estudantes de uma das melhores faculdades de negócio do Brasil. Os resultados sugeriram que o uso da heurística da ancoragem não se mostrou significativa nem para os analistas e nem para os estudantes. Entretanto, o uso da heurística da disponibilidade se mostrou estatisticamente significativa, assim como a presença da noção de correlação ilusória e o efeito isolamento. Por sua vez, o efeito reflexão e a não observação da regressão à média foram percebidos somente na amostra composta pelos analistas profissionais da instituição financeira. Finalmente, o uso da heurística da representatividade só teve efeito estatístico na presença dos alunos.This thesis has been developed in order to answer the following research problem: the heuristics and biases influence the decision-making process of individuals when faced with financial and accounting statements published by the companies? Based on the Prospect Theory of Kahneman and Tversky, this research sought to determine how the heuristics of anchoring and adjustment, representativeness and availability generated biases and influenced how users make decisions using accounting and financial nature information. To this end, questionnaires containing decision situations were submitted to undergraduate students of the School of Economics, Business and Accounting of the University of São Paulo and the professional analysts of a large Brazilian financial institution. 369 students and 55 analysts answered the proposed questionnaire. To avoid that the results could not be trusted, none of the respondents knew that the questionnaire sought to identify biases in the decision-making process. It was explained that the survey questionnaire was about the decision-making process based on the disclosure of accounting and financial information, without making any mention of the study of behavioral biases. The results diverged when both public studied were compared in this thesis: capital market analysts and students of one of the best business schools in Brazil. The results suggested that the use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic was not significant neither for the analysts and neither for the students. However, the use of the availability heuristic was statistically significant, as the presence of the concept of illusory correlation and the isolation effect. In turn, the reflection effect and no observation of regression to the mean were perceived only in the sample of the professional analysts of the financial institution. Finally, the use of the representativeness heuristic only had statistical effect in the student\'s sample.
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Rocklage, Matthew D. "Weighting of positive versus negative as an initial default response." The Ohio State University, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1312297627.
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Herr, Nathalie. "Contribution à l'ordonnancement post-pronostic de plateformes hétérogènes et distribuées : approches discrète et continue." Thesis, Besançon, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015BESA2049/document.
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Cette thèse propose une approche originale d’ordonnancement de la production de plates-formes de machines hétérogènes et distribuées, utilisées en parallèle pour fournir un service global commun. L’originalité de la contribution réside dans la proposition de modifier les conditions opératoires des machines au cours de leur utilisation. Il est supposé qu'utiliser une machine avec des performances dégradées par rapport à un fonctionnement nominal permet d'allonger sa durée de vie avant maintenance. L’étude s’inscrit dans la partie décisionnelle du PHM (Prognostics and Health Management), au sein duquel une étape de pronostic permet de déterminer les durées de vie résiduelles des machines. Le problème d’optimisation consiste à déterminer à chaque instant l’ensemble des machines à utiliser et un profil de fonctionnement pour chacune d’entre elles de manière à maximiser l’horizon de production de la plate-forme avant maintenance. Deux modèles sont proposés pour la définition des profils de fonctionnement. Le premier traduit le comportement à l'usure de machines pouvant fournir un nombre discret de performances. Pour ce cas, la complexité de plusieurs variantes du problème d'optimisation est étudiée et plusieurs méthodes de résolution optimales et sous-optimales sont proposées pour traiter le problème d'ordonnancement. Plusieurs méthodes de résolution sous-optimales sont ensuite proposées pour le second modèle, qui s'applique à des machines dont le débit peut varier de manière continue entre deux bornes. Ces travaux permettent de déterminer la durée maximale d’utilisation avant défaillance d’un système à partir des durées de vie résiduelles des équipements qui le composentThis thesis addresses the problem of maximizing the production horizon of a heterogeneous distributed platform composed of parallel machines and which has to provide a global production service. Each machine is supposed to be able to provide several throughputs corresponding to different operating conditions. It is assumed that using a machine with degraded performances compared to nominal ones allows to extend its useful life before maintenance. The study falls within the decisional step of PHM (Prognostics and Health Management), in which a prognostics phase allows to determine remaining useful lives of machines. The optimization problem consists in determining the set of machines to use at each time and a running profile for each of them so as to maximize the production horizon before maintenance. Machines running profiles are defined on the basis of two models. First one depicts the behavior of machines used with a discrete number of performances. For this case, the problem complexity is first studied considering many variants of the optimization problem. Several optimal and sub-optimal resolution methods are proposed to deal with the scheduling problem. Several sub-optimal resolution methods are then proposed for the second model, which applies to machines whose throughput rate can vary continuously between two bounds. These research works allow to determine the time before failure of a system on the basis of its components remaining useful lives
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Herman, Mark Howard. "Subjective Moral Biases & Fallacies: Developing Scientifically & Practically Adequate Moral Analogues of Cognitive Heuristics & Biases." Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1555718254302922.
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Trejbal, Pavel. "Zatíženost lidského myšlení v rozhodovacím procesu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-15549.
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The focus of this thesis is mainly on the area of human decision making. During the decision process we are subjected to several influences, which bias our judgement. Therefore, we may be misguided towards wrong decisions. In addition, it is important that the display of distorted influence is regularly repeated with the same persons. Thus, we may assume that we are talking about a universal apparatus of the human mind. The aim of this thesis is also to identify the above-mentioned influences, and mainly to understand the nature of their origin. The knowledge resulting from the research could become important and useful tool for the reader, since the knowledge may be used for the improvement of our own decisions in both private and professional life. The research is based on interdisciplinary approaches to cognitive science. On one hand we use the functional model of mind, on the other hand we utilize a wide range of empirical data from several fields, such as psychology, behavioral economics and the sciences concerned with the brain. Using these tools, we analyze specific influences, which are considered to be important from the point of view of decision making. They are for example feelings, emotions, social influences, language, self, experience, expectations and prior forms of judgement. Based on the analysis of the influences, hypotheses about their interconnectedness are deduced. Finally, we suggest several practical methods, which should help us to improve our own decision making and help us to avoid wrong conclusions.
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Helversen, Bettina von. "Quantitative estimation from multiple cues." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät II, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/15718.
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Wie schätzen Menschen quantitative Größen wie zum Beispiel den Verkaufspreis eines Autos? Oft benutzen Menschen zur Lösung von Schätzproblemen sogenannte Cues, Informationen, die probabilistisch mit dem zu schätzenden Kriterium verknüpft sind. Um den Verkaufspreis eines Autos zu schätzen, könnte man zum Beispiel Informationen über das Baujahr, die Automarke, oder den Kilometerstand des Autos verwenden. Um menschliche Schätzprozesse zu beschreiben, werden häufig linear additive Modelle herangezogen. In meiner Dissertation schlage ich alternative ein heuristisches Modell zur Schätzung quantitativer Größen vor: das Mapping-Modell. Im ersten Kapitel meiner Dissertation teste ich das Mapping-Modell gegen weitere, in der Literatur etablierte, Schätzmodelle. Es zeigte sich, dass das Mapping-Modell unter unterschiedlichen Bedingungen in der Lage war, die Schätzungen der Untersuchungsteilnehmer akkurat vorherzusagen. Allerdings bestimmte die Struktur der Aufgabe - im Einklang mit dem Ansatz der „adaptiven Werkzeugkiste“ - im großen Maße, welches Modell am besten geeignet war, die Schätzungen zu erfassen. Im zweiten Kapitel meiner Dissertation greife ich diesen Ansatz auf und untersuche, in wie weit die Aufgabenstruktur bestimmt, welches Modell die Schätzprozesse am Besten beschreibt. Meine Ergebnisse zeigten, dass das Mapping-Modell am Besten dazu geeignet war die Schätzungen der Versuchsteilnehmer zu beschreiben, wenn explizites Wissen über die Aufgabe vorhanden war, während ein Exemplar-Modell den Schätzprozess erfasste, wenn die Abstraktion von Wissen schwierig war. Im dritten Kapitel meiner Dissertation, wende ich das Mapping-Modell auf juristische Entscheidungen an. Eine Analyse von Strafakten ergab, dass das Mapping-Modell Strafzumessungsvorschläge von Staatsanwälten besser vorhersagte als eine lineare Regression. Dies zeigt, dass das Mapping-Modell auch außerhalb von Forschungslaboratorien dazu geeignet ist menschliche Schätzprozesse zu beschreiben.How do people make quantitative estimations, such as estimating a car’s selling price? Often people rely on cues, information that is probabilistically related to the quantity they are estimating. For instance, to estimate the selling price of a car they could use information, such as the car’s manufacturer, age, mileage, or general condition. Traditionally, linear regression type models have been employed to capture the estimation process. In my dissertation, I propose an alternative cognitive theory for quantitative estimation: The mapping model which offers a heuristic approach to quantitative estimations. In the first part of my dissertation l test the mapping model against established alternative models of estimation, namely, linear regression, an exemplar model, and a simple estimation heuristic. The mapping model provided a valid account of people’s estimates outperforming the other models in a variety of conditions. Consistent with the “adaptive toolbox” approach on decision, which model was best in predicting participants’ estimations was a function of the task environment. In the second part of my dissertation, I examined further how different task features affect the performance of the models make. My results indicate that explicit knowledge about the cues is decisive. When knowledge about the cues was available, the mapping model was the best model; however, if knowledge about the task was difficult to abstract, participants’ estimations were best described by the exemplar model. In the third part of my dissertation, I applied the mapping model in the field of legal decision making. In an analysis of fining and incarceration decisions, I showed that the prosecutions’ sentence recommendations were better captured by the mapping model than by legal policy modeled with a linear regression. These results indicated that the mapping model is a valid model which can be applied to model actual estimation processes outside of the laboratory.
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Franceschini, Rafaella Maranhão Kawata. "Conhecimentos contábeis e gerenciais e a ocorrência de heurísticas: um estudo com estudantes de Ciências Contábeis." Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, 2017. http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/3445.
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Decisions affect people's lives, just as they do in organizations. Managers make decisions based on intuition for business several times without being guided by management controls. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) created the Prospect Theory, also known as Perspective Theory, in the quest to explain the cognitive and heuristic biases of the decision-making process. The Prospect Theory is based on the fact that decision-making is not a strictly rational process, especially when the time for decision-making is limited. The managerial accountant by the very nature of the functions that are required to perform will require training very different from that required for the professional that acts in the formal accounting. This present study aimed to analyze whether the academic profile and the accounting and management knowledge influence the occurrence of heuristics. The theoretical reference presents the Decision Theory, Prospects Theory, availability heuristics, representativeness and anchoring, and accounting and management knowledge. For that, a field research was carried out with undergraduate students of the course of Accounting Sciences in the three campuses of a Public University of Paraná. The study sample consisted of 133 students, of which 78 were students in the first year and 55 in the fifth year. The research method used was a survey and the data were collected through questionnaires. Three research blocks were constructed, the first one on heuristics, the second on accounting and managerial knowledge, and the third on academic profile. To analyze the results, a descriptive data analysis, heuristic counting, factorial analysis and logistic regression were developed. The results show that the variables of the academic profile and the low managerial knowledge influence the presence of heuristics and that the undergraduate students presented low averages among the students of the first and fifth year, being that the students' lack of knowledge about aspects related to managerial accounting may be explaining the presence of heuristics among these students. As conclusion of the study in the academic profile the variables gender, age, professional experience and accounting performance presented a significant relation with the occurrence of heuristics, corroborating with the findings of the Prospects Theory.
Entende-se que decisões afetam a vida das pessoas, assim como acontece nas organizações. Os gestores tomam decisões pautadas na intuição ou no “faro” para os negócios, diversas vezes sem se pautar nos controles gerenciais. Kahneman e Tversky (1979) criaram a Teoria do Prospecto, também conhecida como a Teoria da Perspectiva, na busca de explicar os vieses cognitivos e heurísticos do processo de tomada de decisão. A Teoria do Prospecto está fundamenta em que a tomada de decisão não é um processo estritamente racional, em especial, quando o tempo para a tomada de decisão é limitado. O contador gerencial, pela própria natureza das funções que lhe são solicitadas a desempenhar, necessitará de formação bem diferente daquela exigida para o profissional que atua na contabilidade formal. O presente estudo teve por objetivo analisar se o perfil acadêmico e os conhecimentos contábeis e gerenciais influenciam a ocorrência de heurística. Quanto ao referencial teórico, apresenta a Teoria da Decisão, Teoria dos Prospectos, heurísticas da disponibilidade, representatividade e ancoragem e os conhecimentos contábeis e gerenciais. Para isso, foi realizada uma pesquisa de campo junto aos alunos de graduação do curso de Ciências Contábeis em três campi de uma Universidade Pública do Paraná. A amostra do estudo foi composta por 133 acadêmicos, sendo 78 estudantes do primeiro ano e 55 do quinto ano. O método de pesquisa utilizado foi o survey e os dados foram coletados por meio de questionários. Foram construídos três blocos de pesquisa, sendo o primeiro sobre heurística, o segundo sobre conhecimentos contábeis e gerenciais e o terceiro sobre perfil acadêmico. Para análise dos resultados desenvolveu-se a análise descritiva dos dados, contagem de heurísticas, análise fatorial e regressão logística. Os resultados apontam que variáveis do perfil acadêmico e o baixo conhecimento gerencial influenciam a presença de heurística e que os alunos de graduação apresentaram médias baixas entre os alunos do primeiro e quinto ano, sendo que, o pouco conhecimento dos alunos sobre aspectos relacionados à contabilidade gerencial podem estar explicando a presença de heurística entre esses alunos. Como conclusão do estudo do perfil acadêmico as variáveis gênero, idade, experiência profissional e atuação contábil apresentaram relação significativa com a ocorrência de heurística, corroborando com os achados da Teoria dos Prospectos.
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Flämig, Katharina Marianne. "Entscheidungsfindung bei Galeristen auf dem primären Kunstmarkt: Die Rolle von Overconfidence bei der Beurteilung von Kunst und der Einfluss von Wissen und Erfahrung auf die Entscheidungslogik." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/21615.
Full textAbstract:
Die vorliegende Arbeit widmet sich der Darstellung des Kunstmarktgeschehens und der Entscheidungsfindung von Galeristen.
Ziel ist es aufzuzeigen, welche Auswirkungen Erfahrung und Expertise sowie ein begrenzter Informationszugang auf die angewandte Entscheidungslogik und das Entscheidungsverhalten von Galeristen haben.
Sie behandelt die Thematik der kausalen und effektualen Entscheidungslogik und der unterschiedlichen Entscheidungsansätze von Novizen und Experten. Gemäß Sarasvathy (2001) tendieren Novizen zu kausaler und Experten zur effektualer Logik. Sie unterscheiden sich durch ihren Grad an Expertise, welche auf Deliberate Practice, Erfahrung und kontinuierlich erbrachter überragender Leistungserbringung basiert (Ericsson 2006; Mitchell et al. 2005:3, Dew et al. 2009: 289).
Gegenstand der Untersuchung war die Beantwortung der Fragen, ob sich die Berufserfahrung, das Geschlecht und der akademische Werdegang des Galeristen auf die angewandte Entscheidungslogik auswirken. Die Ergebnisse belegen, dass die Berufserfahrung einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die angewandte Entscheidungslogik der Galeristen hat: Novizen-Galeristen präferieren die kausale Entscheidungslogik, Experten-Galeristen die effektuale. In Bezug auf das Geschlecht ist nachweisbar, dass Galeristinnen am häufigsten die kausale Entscheidungslogik anwenden. Dasselbe Bild stellt sich bei Galeristen – ungeachtet ihres Geschlechts – ohne akademische Ausbildung ein.
Die Arbeit setzt zudem ihren Fokus auf die experimentelle Untersuchung des Preisbildungsverfahrens durch Galeristen, wobei insbesondere der etwaige Einfluss der Overconfidence im Mittelpunkt steht. Die Studienergebnisse lassen darauf schließen, dass ein signifikantes Maß an Overconfidence dazu führt, dass die Preise für Kunstwerke niedriger gesetzt werden. Zudem konnte ein Wissenseffekt festgestellt werden: Je versierter ein Galerist im Kunstmarkt ist, desto höher setzt er den Preis für ein als „ausstellungswürdig" deklariertes Kunstwerk.The objective of this dissertation is to shed more light on the primary art market and the decision-making processes of its protagonists, the gallery owners. The doctoral thesis focuses on the potential impact of experience and expertise on the gallerists‘ applied decision-making logic and the consequences of limited access to information for the gallery owners‘ decision-making behaviour. In particular, the distinction between novices and experts and their decision-making is addressed. According to Sarasvathy (2001), novices tend to use a predictive decision-making logic (causation), whereas experts apply a non-predictive logic (effectuation). They differ in their level of expertise, which is based on deliberate practice, experience and continuous outstanding and superior performance in a particular domain (Ericsson 2006; Mitchell et al. 2005:3, Dew et al. 2009: 289). The studies conducted examined whether the professional experience, gender and academic career of the gallery owner affects the applied decision-making logic. The results show that professional experience has a significant influence on the applied decision-making logic of the gallery owner: novice-gallerists prefer the causal approach, expert gallery owners favour the effectual decision-making logic. With regard to gender and the academic career, it can be proven that female gallery owners and gallerists without academic training most often apply the causal decision-making logic. This dissertation also focuses on the experimental analysis of the influence and impact of overconfidence on the price setting processes of gallery owners. The results indicate that a significant level of overconfidence leads to lower prices for works of art. In addition, a knowledge effect could be observed: the more sophisticated the gallery owners are, the higher will be the price they set for an art work they consider to be suitable for an exhibition.
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Kämmer, Juliane Eva. "How people make adaptive decisions with (the help of) others." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät II, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16823.
Full textAbstract:
Diese Dissertation untersucht aus der Perspektive der ökologischen Rationalität (ÖR) die Frage, wie Menschen Entscheidungen in sozialen Kontexten treffen, z.B. in Gruppen oder mit Hilfe von Ratschlägen. Zentral waren die Fragen, wie und welche Umweltfaktoren die Verwendung und Güte von verschiedenen Entscheidungsstrategien beeinflussen. Ziel war es, den Forschungsrahmen der ÖR mit der Gruppenforschung und Literatur zum Thema Ratgeben zu verknüpfen, um für die jeweiligen Forschungsstränge neue Erkenntnisse zu gewinnen. Im ersten Projekt wurden die Leistungen von Einzelpersonen und Zweiergruppen in einer Strategielernaufgabe miteinander verglichen. Aufgabe war es, mit Hilfe von Feedback, die Strategie zu lernen, die adaptiv in Bezug auf die Struktur der Umwelt war. Dabei war es entweder adaptiv, auf den besten diskriminierenden Cue zu setzen und die weniger validen Informationen zu ignorieren (take-the-best), oder aber alle vorhandenen Informationen zu verrechnen (weighted additive). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sowohl Einzelpersonen als auch Gruppen die jeweils beste Strategie erlernten, wobei Gruppen einen schnelleren Lernerfolg zeigten, wenn take-the-best adaptiv war. Das zweite Projekt untersuchte, ob Gruppen Entscheidungsstrategien verwenden, die auf ihre Zusammensetzung hinsichtlich aufgabenrelevanter Faktoren abgestimmt sind. Ergebnisse eines Experiments, in dem 3-Personen-Gruppen eine Paarvergleichsaufgabe bearbeiteten, zeigten, dass Gruppen dazu in der Lage sind, den Strategien zu folgen, die am erfolgversprechendsten sind. Das dritte Projekt untersuchte den Einfluss von Aufgabenschwierigkeit auf die Güte und Verwendung von zwei häufig verwendeten Strategien (mitteln und auswählen) zur Integration von Ratschlägen. Wahrgenommene Aufgabenschwierigkeit schlug sich in verschiedenen statistischen Merkmalen der Umweltstruktur nieder, was wiederum die potentielle Güte der Strategien. Zudem stimmten Personen ihre Strategien auf die Aufgabenschwierigkeit ab.This dissertation is an investigation from an ecological rationality (ER) perspective of how people make decisions in social contexts, for example, when people collectively make decisions in small groups or with the help of another person’s advice. Of particular interest were the questions of what and how environmental factors influence the use and performance of different decision strategies. The studies thus were aimed at linking the framework of ER with research on group decision making and advice taking, respectively, in order to derive new insights for the related research streams. A first project compared the performances of individuals and two-person groups in a strategy-learning task. The task was to learn with the help of feedback the most adaptive strategy for a given task environment. One environment favored take-the-best (i.e., the strategy to rely on the best discriminating cue and ignore the rest); the second environment favored the weighted additive strategy, which weights and adds all available cues. Results show that individuals and dyads learned to select the most appropriate strategy over time, with a steeper learning rate in dyads when take-the-best was adaptive. A second project investigated whether small groups apply decision strategies conditional on the group’s composition in terms of task-relevant features. Results of an experiment with three-member groups working on a paired-comparison task support the hypothesis that groups indeed adaptively apply the strategy that leads to the highest theoretically achievable performance. A third project investigated the impact of perceived task difficulty on the performance and use of choosing and averaging, two prominent advice-taking strategies. Perceived task difficulty was reflected in the statistical properties of the environment, which, in turn, determined the theoretical accuracy of choosing and averaging. Further, people were found to adaptively use the strategies in different task environments.