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Robinson, Jeffrey Brett, University of Western Sydney, of Science Technology and Environment College, and School of Environment and Agriculture. "Understanding and applying decision support systems in Australian farming systems research." THESIS_CSTE_EAG_Robinson_J.xml, 2005. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/642.
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Decision support systems (DSS) are usually based on computerised models of biophysical and economic systems. Despite early expectations that such models would inform and improve management, adoption rates have been low, and implementation of DSS is now “critical” The reasons for this are unclear and the aim of this study is to learn to better design, develop and apply DSS in farming systems research (FSR). Previous studies have explored the merits of quantitative tools including DSS, and suggested changes leading to greater impact. In Australia, the changes advocated have been: Simple, flexible, low cost economic tools: Emphasis on farmer learning through soft systems approaches: Understanding the socio-cultural contexts of using and developing DSS: Farmer and researcher co-learning from simulation modelling and Increasing user participation in DSS design and implementation. Twenty-four simple criteria were distilled from these studies, and their usefulness in guiding the development and application of DSS were assessed in six FSR case studies. The case studies were also used to better understand farmer learning through models of decision making and learning. To make DSS useful complements to farmers’ existing decision-making repertoires, they should be based on: (i) a decision-oriented development process, (ii) identifying a motivated and committed audience, (iii) a thorough understanding of the decision-makers context, (iv) using learning as the yardstick of success, and (v) understanding the contrasts, contradictions and conflicts between researcher and farmer decision culturesDoctor of Philosophy (PhD)
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Tarnoff, David Lee. "A decision support tool for preliminary system design." Thesis, This resource online, 1991. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-10312009-020108/.
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Dilijonas, Darius. "Service systems profitability research for real-time decision support using intelligent systems." Doctoral thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2011. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2011~D_20110519_082139-31189.
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Summary presents self-service networks operational performance improvement and management system, which is adapted to manage the supply of ATMs’ cash flows. The system is created using multi-agent technologies and artificial neural networks. Adaptive neural network model has been created for the forecast of ATMs’ cash demand. Flexibility of the network is regulated in real time mode by limiting neural network weights, depending on process complexity, therefore such network better forecasts in real life situations. Evaluation and process improvement methodology has been created to optimize productivity of self-service systems, which includes: value-based self-service quality and performance criteria’s, and performance evaluation models. Using these models is possible to increase productivity of self-service systems. Using theoretical studies results a computer program enabling real-time monitoring and management of ATM cash flows was created. Analysis of high and low intensity of ATM network profitability showed that the created flexible neural network forecast method is more superior than classical methods of time series forecast (moving average, Holt, Winters, and ARMA), and is able to quite accurately forecast various time series of ATM cash demand. Based on studies found that using the created ANN method and optimization procedure, ATM cash management productivity may be approximately increased by 33 percent.Santraukoje pristatoma savitarnos tinklų veiklos našumo didinimo ir valdymo intelektinė sistema, pritaikyta valdyti bankomatų grynųjų pinigų tiekimo srautus. Sistema sukurta naudojant multi-agentų technologijas ir neuroninius tinklus. Bankomatų grynųjų pinigų poreikiui prognozuoti sudarytas adaptyvus neuroninis tinklas. Šio tinklo lankstumas reguliuojamas realiu laiku apribojant neuroninių tinklų svorius, priklausomai nuo proceso sudėtingumo, todėl toks tinklas gali geriau prognozuoti realiose situacijose. Savitarnos sistemų našumui optimizuoti sukurta vertinimo ir procesų tobulinimo metodika apimanti: verte pagrįstus savitarnos kokybės ir našumo kriterijus bei našumo vertinimo ir procesų tobulinimo modelius. Naudojant šiuos modelius galima užtikrinti našesnį savitarnos sistemų darbą. Teorinių tyrimų pagrindu buvo sukurta kompiuterinė programa, leidžianti realiu laiku stebėti ir valdyti bankomatų grynųjų pinigų srautus. Šios programos panaudojimas leidžia sumažinti tinklo valdymo kaštus ir padidinti paslaugų prieinamumą. Atlikus didelio ir mažo intensyvumo bankomatų tinklų pelningumo analizę nustatyta, kad sukurtas lankstus neuroninių tinklų prognozavimo metodas yra pranašesnis už klasikinius laiko eilučių prognozavimo metodus (slankiųjų vidurkių, Holto, Vinterio, ARMA), ir gali pakankamai tiksliai prognozuoti įvairias bankomatų grynųjų pinigų poreikio laiko eilutes. Remiantis atliktais tyrimais nustatyta, kad pritaikius sukurtą ANN metodą ir optimizavimo procedūrą, bankomatų... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
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Fox, Fred Andrew 1956. "Irrigation scheduling decision support." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/288770.
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Irrigation scheduling using the soil water balance approach has been recommended to irrigators for many years. Reasonably good results are normally obtained by researchers using carefully quantified inputs. Irrigators in production agriculture may estimate inputs and then question the validity of the method when the irrigation recommendations conflict with present irrigation schedules. By associating each input with an interval representing possible bias based on the way the input was estimated, and solving the irrigation scheduling model using the intervals as inputs, the output was associated with an interval representing possible bias. This method was also used to evaluate possible bias associated with growing degree day based crop coefficient curves developed from Arizona crop consumptive use measurements. For comparison purposes, roughly estimated inputs based on irrigation system type, soil type, area weather data and available crop coefficient curves were used as default intervals. Improved input intervals consisted of observed irrigation system performance, soil property measurements, local weather data and theoretical improvements in crop coefficient curves. For surface irrigation, field observation of plant stress and soil water content showed the greatest potential to improve irrigation date predictions. For buried drip under a row crop, accuracy of the predicted daily irrigation rate was most improved by a better estimate of irrigation efficacy.
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Clark, Cindy, and R. Warren Miller. "Experimental research and empirical testing of distributed Group Decision Support Systems." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/42109.
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Past research in the area of Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) has attempted to ascertain its future potential in the business world. This thesis extends the GDSS research to the area of distributed Group Decision Support Systems (DGDSS) . An experiment was performed where groups of three and four persons were tested in different group decision making settings, a traditional decision room and a DGDSS. An experimental prototype DGDSS program, developed at Claremont University, Claremont, CA, was evaluated during the experiment. The experiment pointed out several program advantages and disadvantages during the evaluation. The study determined that use of the DGDSS resulted in generation of larger numbers of criteria and alternatives and greater decision satisfaction. DGDSS supported groups experienced: less commitment to the final decision, less satisfaction with the decision process, and less satsifaction with communication.
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Elder, Mark D. "Visual interactive modelling : some guidelines for its implementation and some aspects of its potential impact on operational research." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 1992. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=21384.
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The thesis reports a research programme designed to answer two research questions. These are concerned with improving the practice of Visual Interactive Modelling in the context of an Operational Research activity and the potential contribution of Visual Interactive Modelling towards overcoming certain long term concerns which the Operational Research community has regarding the service it provides. The literature of Visual Interactive Modelling is reviewed, as is that of wider aspects of Operational Research concerned with the paradigm used by its practitioners and researchers. Two series of experimental studies are undertaken to collect data to help answer the research questions. Action Research is used for a series of six studies of Visual Interactive Modelling cases. The second series is more laboratory based to gain a type of data which is not available from Action Research. Results are presented in three forms. A 'body of experience' is collated from the data collected during the studies. This will form a base for future researchers in the Visual Interactive Modelling field. Secondly, a series of guidelines is tentatively proposed which could be used by practitioners as a basis for good practice in Visual Interactive Modelling. Finally, in the light of the data collected and reviews of the literature, a new way of considering the contribution of Visual Interactive Modelling to the Operational Research process is proposed. Suggestions for further research are offered.
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Silva, Frederica Nishakumari de. "CEMPS - spatial decision support system for evacuation planning : an operational research - geographical information systems approach." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.242839.
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Leiva, Conrad M. "A decision support system for workforce preference scheduling." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1986. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/24361.
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Mahalak, David Matthew. "Using Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Decision Support Systems to Conduct Analysis of Alternatives for Department of Defense Acquisition Programs." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10686509.
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Despite being a mandated requirement, the U.S. Government Accountability Office found a lack of guidance across the Department of Defense for conducting analysis of alternatives which contributed to significant cost, schedule, and performance problems for Defense acquisition programs. In 2008 ninety-six major weapon system programs were reviewed and findings showed cost growths of $296 billion, average program delays of twenty-two months, and the delivery of fewer systems with reduced capabilities. Without specific guidance and criteria for how analysis of alternatives should be conducted the Department of Defense will continue to struggle to make informed trade-offs and start executable programs. This praxis presents a decision support system that enables decision makers to analyze cost, schedule, and performance ratings for multi criteria decision analysis problems. The decision support system provides interactive visualization tools that allow decision makers to execute sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, analyze the decision problem from multiple stakeholder-specific viewpoints, and synthesize results in a meaningful way. Although the primary motivation of this praxis is to fill the gap identified by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the decision support system presented in this praxis can be modified and applied across multiple domains.
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Sahle, Habtemichael Faniel. "The application of decision support systems in the Eritrean public sector." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/50117.
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Thesis (MPA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The traditional skills required in government-wide local knowledge, sound political judgment and concern for the welfare of people-are still essential in the global information society. But, to be more effective, these skills now have to be supported by the new decision-making techniques of operations research and decision support systems. The capacity of the human mind to handle complex issues is limited. This situation of complexity and incapacity makes the application of operations research techniques and electronic DSS essential for good governance outcomes. Operations research is a multidisciplinary discipline that requires a team approach to decision making. It is based on systems analysis approach because of its preoccupation with interconnections among parts rather than within the parts themselves. This systems approach allows the optimization of an organization's overall goals, not just those of isolated departments. Optimization is one of the functions of operations research techniques. Linear programming models are most effective at the operational level of decision making with a single objective where scarce or limited resources must be allocated or used in an optimal manner. At the policy level where there are many uncertainties and conflicting objectives, multiobjective programming is more suitable. On the other hand, dynamic programming is flexible and is particularly applied whenever a sequence of decisions must be made and the goal is to find the combination of decisions that optimizes the overall effectiveness of the entire set of decisions. However, when a problem is too complex to be treated by numerical optimization techniques, simulation is used. That is when the problem either cannot be formulated for optimization, because the formulation is too large, there are too many interactions among the variables, or the problem is stochastic (probabilistic) in nature. Despite the analytical power of operations research, many real-world problems are not amenable to direct analytical solution by known mathematical techniques. Hence, in the absence of exact methods to solutions, we usually resort to heuristics, i.e. finding a good but not necessarily the best solution. Other problems encountered by public sector agencies include service stations (waiting lines), inventory levels, forecasting, and project scheduling, which all need decision support systems. To reduce the adverse impact of waiting to acceptable levels one has to minimize costs associated with providing service and those associated with waiting time. For smooth operations, inventory of goods must be kept to an acceptable level to minimize setup or ordering, inventory holding, and shortage (public complaints, and loss of good will and sales) costs. Forecasting is crucial as most managerial decisions are based on projected information and policy analysis is almost always about future outcomes. Many government policies and programs are implemented through projects. Project managers must know how long a specific project will take to finish, what the critical tasks are, and what the probability of completing the project within a given time span is. Successful applications of operations research and decision support systems in the public sector have been recorded including in the areas of the military, transportation, crime and justice, police units, energy, natural resources, facility location, and land use planning. However, operations research applications are not without impediments. Technical and institutional barriers are some of the problems encountered in the effort to apply operations research in the public sector. Similarly, reasons for the slow growth of decision support systems include lack of user demand, lack of system designer motivation, lack of system designer expertise, reluctance to change, and increased risk of failure In the Eritrean public sector, the low level of awareness of operations research and decision support systems is reflected in the inadequacy of addressing multicriteria decision processes, the lack and lor inappropriate selection of decision support systems, improper project management techniques, suboptimal facility locations and service stations, the low level of multidisciplinary approach, and the absence of national standards for pollution control. In general, constraints such as the lack of capacity, awareness, know-how, and software, are rampant. The study concludes that policy-making processes should incorporate opportunities to exercise choices and explore rational options. These rational options are the results of appropriate interface of human, operations research and decision support systems.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die tradisionele vaardighede wat van 'n regering verwag word - wye kennis van plaaslike omstandighede, goeie politieke oordeel en besorgdheid oor die welvaart van mense - was nog altyd belangrik in die moderne wêreld. Hierdie vaardighede moet egter ondersteun word deur die nuwe besluitnemingstegnieke van operasionele navorsing en besluitnemings ondersteuningstelsels om effektief te wees. Die vermoë van die menslike brein om komplekse kwessies te hanteer, is beperk. Hierdie situasie van kompleksheid aan die een kant en onvermoë aan die ander kant maak die aanwending van operasionele navorsingstegnieke en elektroniese besluitneming nodig vir goeie regeringsuitkomste. Operasionele navorsing is 'n multidisiplinêre disipline wat 'n spanbenadering tot besluitneming benodig. Dit is baseer op die sisteemanalise benadering omdat dit gaan oor interkonneksies tussen onderdele en nie soseer oor die onderdele self nie. Hierdie sisteembenadering maak die optimisering van die sisteem se oorhoofse doelwitte moontlik, nie net die doelwitte van geïsoleerde departemente nie Optimisasie is een van die funksies van operasionele navorsing. Liniêre programmeringsmodelle is meer effektief op die operasionele vlak van besluitneming met 'n enkel doelwit waar skaars of beperkte bronne toegewys of gebruik moet word op 'n optimale wyse. Op die beleidsvlak waar baie onsekerhede en botsende doelwitte voorkom, is multi-doelwit programmering meer geskik. Aan die ander kant is dinamiese programmering meer toepaslik en buigsaam, veral as dit toegepas word waar 'n reeks besluite geneem moet word en die doel is om 'n kombinasie van besluite te vind wat die oorhoofse effektiwiteit van die hele stel besluite optimiseer. Sekere probleme is egter te kompleks om met numeriese optimisering op te los, omdat die probleem nie geprogrammeer kan word vir optimisering nie, omdat die formulasie te groot is, daar te veel interaksies tussen die veranderlikes is, of die probleem stogasties van aard is. Dan kan simulasies oorweeg word om oplossings te probeer vind. Ten spyte van die analitiese krag van operasionele navorsing, kan baie werklike probleme nie direk deur analitiese wiskundige tegnieke opgelos word nie - altans nie deur bekende wiskundige tegnieke nie. As 'n presiese oplossing nie moontlik is nie, kan kan 'n heuristiese oplossing ondersoek word, d.w.s. 'n goeie, maar nie noodwendig die beste oplossing nie. Ander probleme wat deur die openbare sektor ondervind word, sluit in diensstasies, inventarisvlakke, voorspellings, en projekskedulering. Hulle benodig almal besluitnemingsstelsels vir effektiewe oplossings. Om die wagtydperk te verminder tot 'n aanvaarbare vlak moet die koste verbonde aan die verskaffing van die diens en die koste verbonde aan wagtydperke minirniseer word. Om 'n operasie glad te laat verloop moet die inventaris van goedere op 'n aanvaarbare vlak gehou word om die koste van bestellings, die byhou van voorrade en tekorte (klagtes van die publiek, die verlies aan vertroue en verkope) te minirniseer. Voorspelling is van die uiterste belang vir hierdie doel, omdat bestuursbesluite baseer is op geskatte syfers en beleidsontleding betrekking het op toekomstige uitkomste. Baie regeringsbeleide en -programme word deur projekte geïmplementeer. Projekbestuurders moet weet hoe lank dit sal neem om 'n projek te voltooi, wat die belangrike take is en hoe waarskynlik dit is dat die projek betyds voltooi sal word. Operasionele navorsing en besluitnemingsondersteuning stelsels is al suksesvol aangewend in die volgende openbare sektore: militêre funksies, vervoer, misdaad en justisie, die polisie, energie, natuurlike hulpbronne, en die beplanning van grondgebruik. Tegniese en ander hindernisse word egter soms ondervind by die gebruik van operasionele navorsingstegnieke in die openbare sektor. Redes hoekom die gebruik van sulke stelsels so stadig toeneem, sluit in die gebrek aan aanvraag van verbruikers, die gebrek aan stelselontwerp motivering, die gebrek aan stelselontwerp vaardighede, onwilligheid om te verander en die groter risiko van mislukking. In die openbare sektor van Eritrea word die lae vlak van bewustheid van operasionele navorsing en besluitnemingsondersteuning stelsels gereflekteer in 'n onvermoë om dit te gebruik, die gebrek aan of verkeerde keuse van sulke hulpmiddels, verkeerde bestuurstegnieke, suboptimale plasing van dienspunte, die afwesigheid van multi-disiplinêre benaderings, en die afwesigheid van nasionale standaarde vir die beheer van besoedeling. Beperkings soos 'n gebrek aan kapasiteit, bewustheid, kennis en sagteware kom algemeen voor. In hierdie studie word daar tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat beleidmakende prosesse die geleentheid behoort in te sluit om keuses te maak en om verskillende opsies te toets. Hierdie rasionele opsies is die gevolg van die regte interaksie tussen die mens, operasionele navorsing en besluitnemingsondersteuning stelsels.
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Chetsumon, Sireerat. "Attitudes of extension agents towards expert systems as decision support tools in Thailand." Lincoln University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10182/1371.
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It has been suggested 'expert systems' might have a significant role in the future through enabling many more people to access human experts. It is, therefore, important to understand how potential users interact with these computer systems. This study investigates the effect of extension agents' attitudes towards the features and use of an example expert system for rice disease diagnosis and management(POSOP). It also considers the effect of extension agents' personality traits and intelligence on their attitudes towards its use, and the agents' perception of control over using it. Answers to these questions lead to developing better systems and to increasing their adoption. Using structural equation modelling, two models - the extension agents' perceived usefulness of POSOP, and their attitude towards the use of POSOP, were developed (Models ATU and ATP). Two of POSOP's features (its value as a decision support tool, and its user interface), two personality traits (Openness (0) and Extraversion (E)), and the agents' intelligence, proved to be significant, and were evaluated. The agents' attitude towards POSOP's value had a substantial impact on their perceived usefulness and their attitude towards using it, and thus their intention to use POSOP. Their attitude towards POSOP's user interface also had an impact on their attitude towards its perceived usefulness, but had no impact on their attitude towards using it. However, the user interface did contribute to its value. In Model ATU, neither Openness (0) nor Extraversion (E) had an impact on the agents' perceived usefulness indicating POSOP was considered useful regardless of the agents' personality background. However, Extraversion (E) had a negative impact on their intention to use POSOP in Model ATP indicating that 'introverted' agents had a clear intention to use POSOP relative to the 'extroverted' agents. Extension agents' intelligence, in terms of their GPA, had neither an impact on their attitude, nor their subjective norm (expectation of 'others' beliefs), to the use of POSOP. It also had no association with any of the variables in both models. Both models explain and predict that it is likely that the agents will use POSOP. However, the availability of computers, particularly their capacity, are likely to impede its use. Although the agents believed using POSOP would not be difficult, they still believed training would be beneficial. To be a useful decision support tool, the expert system's value and user interface as well as its usefulness and ease of use, are all crucially important to the preliminary acceptance of a system. Most importantly, the users' problems and needs should be assessed and taken into account as a first priority in developing an expert system. Furthermore, the users should be involved in the system development. The results emphasise that the use of an expert system is not only determined by the system's value and its user interface, but also the agents' perceived usefulness, and their attitude towards using it. In addition, the agents' perception of control over using it is also a significant factor. The results suggested improvements to the system's value and its user interface would increase its potential use, and also providing suitable computers, coupled with training, would encourage its use.
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Gauthier, Jean-Maurice. "A decision-support system for optimal operation of hydropower stations /." Thesis, McGill University, 2000. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=31159.
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Hydro-Quebec utilizes a one-dimensional hydrological model called H2RM to simulate the evolution of flow on harnessed rivers. The model produces reliable results but its application is restricted to so-called 'hydrological domains', that define the flow routing pattern in-between hydroelectric facilities. When many power stations are present on a river, each hydrological domain must be treated separately, then linked to the next one. No information is provided on storage in head reservoirs nor electric production from power stations.A computer program (shell) has been developed to simulate a complete hydropower system comprising a number of head reservoirs, hydrological domains and power stations. In this program, head reservoir behavior is reproduced by computing a mass balance, flow routing within a hydrological domain is simulated using the H2RM model, and production from each power station is estimated through an optimization procedure.
The shell program can be used as a decision support tool by allowing the comparison between various water management schemes and by displaying stage and discharge at any point of the hydropower system, storage in head reservoirs, and optimal power output from the turbines for the head and flow conditions prevailing at each power station. Examples of application are provided.
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Feigh, Karen M. "Design of cognitive work support systems for airline operations." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/26524.
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Thesis (Ph.D)--Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009.Committee Chair: Pritchett, Amy R.; Committee Member: Clarke, John-Paul; Committee Member: Cross, Stephen; Committee Member: Endsley, Mica; Committee Member: Goldsman, David. Part of the SMARTech Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Collection.
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Adendorff, S. A. "A decision support model for the cash replenishment process in South African retail banking." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2006. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-11092006-150852/.
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Bernroider, Edward, Stefan Koch, and Volker Stix. "A Comprehensive Framework Approach using Content, Context, Process Views to Combine Methods from Operations Research for IT Assessments." Taylor and Francis, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10580530.2013.739896.
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Motivated by IT evaluation problems identified in a large public sector organization, we propose how
evaluation requirements can be supported by a framework combining different models and methods
from IS evaluation theory. The article extends the content, context, process (CCP) perspectives of
organizational change with operations research techniques and demonstrates the approach in practice
for an Enterprise Resource Planning evaluation.
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Stevens, Caroline A. "A research framework and questionnaire for group decision support system evaluation." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1995. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/25599.
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Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) have been designed to support groups of people engaged in the cooperative working activities of a meeting. The interactions of a group of people working together in a meeting are termed the "group process" whereby certain factors or input variables influence the group process which in turn characterize the group process outcomes. A review of the work in this field has revealed the absence of a standard organizing framework in GDSS research that adequately models this group process and identifies those variables recognized as characterizing the group process. The introduction of such a framework would be a significant advance in GDSS research, both improving the methods for describing and assessing GDSS-supported meetings and helping to understand the effects of input variables on the group process and its outputs. This thesis presents such a framework. Evaluation of the group process and its outcomes is essential in studying the use of GDSS and the effects of input variables upon the group process and its outcome. Post-process questionnaires to be completed by group members have frequently been used to evaluate GDSS. However, articles describing the use of questionnaires in GDSS research provide little information regarding development of the questionnaires and the assessment of validity and reliability of questionnaires is rarely addressed. This calls into question the validity and reliability of results and conclusions drawn from questionnaire responses. In this research, a questionnaire which aims to evaluate group members' perceptions of the meeting process and its outcomes was developed directly from the variables in the framework. The questionnaire was completed by a total of 57 group members attending five meetings using three different types of GDSS to help them with their real problems. Their responses were used to test the questionnaire for validity and reliability. The results of these tests were used to revise the questionnaire. As a result, a valid questionnaire has been devised which can be used with confidence in future research to provide valid conclusions. Use of such a standard valid questionnaire will produce comparable results from all GDSS research, promoting cross comparison of study results, more efficient interpretation of results and more fruitful conclusions. This will enhance the researchers' understanding of GDSS use.
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Kizito, Frank. "Water supply management in an urban utility a prototype decision support framework /." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad, Kungliga Tekniska högskolan, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-11900.
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Kizito, Frank. "Development of Decision Support Tools for Urban Water Supply Management in Uganda." Licentiate thesis, Stockholm : Mark- och vattenteknik, Land and Water Resource Engineering, Kungliga Tekniska högskolan, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4803.
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Gallion, Mark Steven. "A simulation-based decision support system for finite population maintenance logistics." Thesis, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1986. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/91096.
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This thesis presents a decision support system, MAINTAIN, that was developed to assist maintenance and logistics planners in the evaluation of alternative strategies that might be used in the maintenance of a finite population of end items. The modeled population must consist of a finite number of identical end items, each at age zero at the beginning of the analysis. End items are modeled at their component level, with the lifetime of each component described by a probability distribution. These components are assumed to fail independently of each other and to cause end item failure if any one component should fail. Several component-level preventive maintenance policies are integrated into the modeling system and include age-based replacement, opportunistic lookahead replacement, or no replacement until failure.
Also incorporated into the model is the use of two repair facilities, which function as constraints on the resources available to perform maintenance tasks. One repair facility is used under normal conditions, while the second can be used when the first facility is operating beyond its capacity.
MAINTAIN is a simulation-based modeling system, in that a proposed or actual maintenance system is captured as an input data set and its operation is simulated over the specified planning horizon. Time-series output statistics are produced by the model to allow the analysis of time dependent parameters such as population availability, maintenance costs, spares requirements and repair facility utilization. Output data are available in several forms for use in external analyses.M.S.
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Singh, Pavan Pratap. "An empirical study of the idea generation productivity of decision-making groups implications for GDSS research, design, and practice /." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0015/NQ56268.pdf.
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ZHAO, YING, and JINZI GAO. "Decision Support System- Research on the application of DSS in China's Banks." Thesis, Högskolan i Borås, Institutionen Handels- och IT-högskolan, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-20445.
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Information system is widely used in financial area all around the world today, and businessintelligence systems has draw more and more attention from both academia and businesscircles. Based on this situation, we carried out our research. The main purpose of our researchis to find out how Decision Support System (DSS) is used in China's banks. As there are morethan five hundred banks in China, we choose the four biggest commercial banks(which hascover more than 85% of financial activities in China's banking area) as examples to study. Wesent Emails and made telephone calls to different roles in these four banks, from chiefinformation officer, managers of business to normal staff. Before carried out interviews, wedid literature study to set a scientific background for our interviews. After the collection andanalysis of data from both interview and literature study, the result is presented in threechapters. The theoretical study part introduces the theory background of DSS and how it isused in banks, the framework of the DSS and the basic model of the DSS, also newtechniques in DSS. The Empirical results part introduces the results got from interviews. InAnalysis part the results from the former chapters will be combined and analyzed, in this partwe presents the application situation of DSS in China's banks, the affection of DSS on banksemployees and improvement and drawback DSS brings to China's banks. Also newtechnology of decision support system and its application. And the last part we would drawconclusions for this thesis and summarize results from the interviews and theories andevaluate the whole research process. And the introduction of our research and the methodsused to achieve the research goal will be introduced in the first two chapters.
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Kong, Zhaojun. "The Research on the Simulation Method in Public Management Decision Support System." 名古屋大学大学院経済学研究科附属国際経済政策研究センター, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/10882.
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Lingga, Marwan Mossa. "Developing a Hierarchical Decision Model to Evaluate Nuclear Power Plant Alternative Siting Technologies." PDXScholar, 2016. http://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/2943.
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A strong trend of returning to nuclear power is evident in different places in the world. Forty-five countries are planning to add nuclear power to their grids and more than 66 nuclear power plants are under construction.
Nuclear power plants that generate electricity and steam need to improve safety to become more acceptable to governments and the public. One novel practical solution to increase nuclear power plants' safety factor is to build them away from urban areas, such as offshore or underground. To date, Land-Based siting is the dominant option for siting all commercial operational nuclear power plants. However, the literature reveals several options for building nuclear power plants in safer sitings than Land-Based sitings.
The alternatives are several and each has advantages and disadvantages, and it is difficult to distinguish among them and choose the best for a specific project. In this research, we recall the old idea of using the alternatives of offshore and underground sitings for new nuclear power plants and propose a tool to help in choosing the best siting technology.
This research involved the development of a decision model for evaluating several potential nuclear power plant siting technologies, both those that are currently available and future ones. The decision model was developed based on the Hierarchical Decision Modeling (HDM) methodology. The model considers five major dimensions, social, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP), and their related criteria and sub-criteria. The model was designed and developed by the author, and its elements' validation and evaluation were done by a large number of experts in the field of nuclear energy.
The decision model was applied in evaluating five potential siting technologies and ranked the Natural Island as the best in comparison to Land-Based, Floating Plant, Artificial Island, and Semi-Embedded plant.
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Thiede, David Michael. "A rail transit decision support system for the 1996 summer olympics." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/25025.
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Gomes, Roger. "The influence of just-in-time systems on physical distribution channel performance: an experiment utilizing a dynamic simulation decision support system." Diss., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/53696.
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Currently many American industrial firms are considering the adoption of Just-In-Time (JIT) as an inventory control/material flow system. A JIT system can have several configurations. Examples exist of JIT being applied system-wide between all the echelons which make up a channel. There are also examples of firms adopting JIT only on the materials management side, or alternatively, only on the physical distribution side of a particular focal organization (echelon) within a channel.
The reality of uncertainty in the channel's operation and environment suggests that alternative inventory systems (such as JIT) must be evaluated under a range of internal operational uncertainty and external demand uncertainty conditions. This study offers a rational methodology to anticipate the performance impact of alternative system designs under realistic operating conditions.
The G.P.M. simulation model was used to represent the operation of a channel under sixteen treatment conditions. The research design was full factorial with two levels each of four factors (physical distribution JIT, materials management JIT, materials management operational uncertainty, and demand uncertainty). The response variables which were used as indicators of channel performance included: profitability, order cycle time, standard deviation of order cycle time, and percent customer orders filled.
Eleven research hypotheses explored the relationship between JIT configuration and uncertainty, both in terms of profitability and physical distribution service level maintained.
The major conclusions of the research are:
1. JIT is not the unidimensional system often depicted in descriptive studies. JIT effects tend to be complex, interactive, and level dependent. It is particularly difficult to predict the effect of JIT on one echelon, or on subsystems within echelons.
2. Rather than the inherent positive effects often attributed to JIT, results indicate negative effects for both profit and service under a range of uncertainty conditions.
3. Results support the common criticism of JIT that its performance is sensitive to uncertainty, particularly demand uncertainty. The performance of non-JIT systems were also shown to have similar sensitivity to uncertainty.
4. Most synergistic interactions between factors were not significant, but the statistical procedure for means comparison was acknowledged to be conservative.
5. Results also indicated that JIT systems may make the job of maintaining high customer service levels more difficult.Ph. D.
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Mbiyana, Keegan. "Winter Road Maintenance Planning-Decision Support Modelling." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för samhällsbyggnad och naturresurser, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-70475.
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Winter in Northern Sweden comes with very harsh and unpredictable condition associated with large amounts of snowfall covering roadways thereby affecting transportation by roads. When the road conditions i.e. the snow depth, road unevenness and friction of the road surface are accessed and found to exceed the threshold, a maintenance action must be carried out to retain the road to the required condition for the user. The aim of maintenance, in this case, is to make the road comfortable, safe and economical for the road user. Decision support system, therefore, comes in handy to facilitate on deciding what maintenance action to carry out and when the action should be carried out, where the action should be carried out and how to go about the action based on the various data and resources available. This thesis project concentrates on how to carry out a winter road maintenance after receiving an alert of an action to carry out, when to carry it out and the road network that needs to be maintained. The thesis work focusses only on two of the winter road maintenance actions namely snow ploughing of bus stops in Luleå and application of abrasives commonly referred to as sanding of bus stops. Carrying out winter road maintenance comes at a huge cost from both direct and indirect costs with the Swedish government spending about SEK 1.75 billion every year as indicated by Jana Sochor and Cecilia Yu (Sochor & Yu, 2004). This means that reduction in the maintenance cost of even 5% through optimisation of the maintenance cost would translate into a saving of about 87.5 million SEK per year and in 10 years could amount to close to 1 billion SEK. Optimization also leads to efficiency and effectiveness that could result in improved movement on the road and reduced environmental and social-economic impacts. Maintenance planning thus becomes essential for the effective and efficient execution of work and utilisation of the available scarce resource. This thesis project focusses on the use of Operations research methods to minimise the cost of carrying out a winter road maintenance action by finding the near optimal or if possible optimal solution and still deliver the required service level. The thesis delivers two main things: It first delivers a framework to support winter road maintenance decision making after an alert of an action is received and secondly an algorithm for the route that minimises the cost of maintenance by providing the route that minimises the travel distance of the ploughing/sanding vehicle from its source depot and back to the depot after completing a maintenance action assuming that the vehicle and material (fuel and sand) are in the same depot. The routes with minimum travel distance will, therefore, be that route that will reduce the labour time and in turn the labour cost, reduce the fuel consumption and the maintenance of the equipment due to reduced usage. The project uses a vehicle routing problem which is a generalised travelling Salesman as the optimisation technique to determine the optimal solution for the allocation of resources for carrying out a maintenance action to facilitate efficient utilisation of the available resources. This is with the help of a commercial optimisation software and support tools namely ArcGIS. To come up with the algorithm, the first step was a digital representation of the vehicle road network in Luleå for network analysis after which the bus stops were imported from google earth into the network. A two-stage optimisation was then carried out: first was a model for route optimisation based on the road network in ArcGIS with the objective function to minimise the travel distance and constraints based on the available resources. The results of ii the model were then exported into excel for the second optimisation for the optimal cost of maintenance done through a developed excel algorithm. The total cost of maintenance comprised direct and indirect cost. The direct cost consisted of the cost of fuel, the cost of personnel and the cost of hiring vehicles while the indirect cost results from the penalty fee charged for sanding and ploughing a bus stop after the threshold time given to a maintenance contractor by the municipality. Any bus stop that is ploughed after the threshold attracts a penalty per hour of the exceeded time. Six penalty threshold times were considered i.e. 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 minutes and a single parameter deterministic sensitivity analysis was carried out for each cost parameters to determine the sensitivity of the total maintenance cost. The more relaxed penalty thresholds were found to be less sensitive to the direct cost and the total maintenance cost compared to the more sensitive ones. When the penalty threshold is relaxed, the optimal maintenance cost reduces, and the required number of vehicles reduces. The cost of vehicle hire was found to be more sensitive than the other costs. The results of this project can help the maintenance contractor in developing a work schedule for the maintenance personnel and improve vehicle fleet management. By modelling the worst scenario, a contractor can plan for the maximum number of vehicles required and consequently the personnel required. With the optimal travel route for each vehicle and the total maintenance cost determined, maintenance contractors can determine the sustainability and profitability of their business and be able to negotiate for a better and more sustainable agreement (Contract) or for the relaxation of the penalty threshold time if it does not affect the service level required i.e. the quality and safety requirements. The approach used in this project can also be used for other winter road maintenance problems.
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Louw, Johannes Jacobus. "Advanced supply chain planning processes and decision support systems for large-scale petrochemical companies." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/1117.
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Thesis (PhD (Logistics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006.Conventional supply chain integration concepts focus primarily on the internal and external integration of individual supply chains (can be viewed as intra-supply chain integration). Due to the highly integrated nature of petrochemical value chains, related supply chains should also be integrated by taking account of enterprise/industry-wide synergies and interdependencies (can be viewed as inter-supply chain integration). Inter-supply chain integration can typically develop along three dimensions: - Upstream feed clusters (upstream in the chemical value chain) - Downstream product clusters (downstream in the chemical value chain) - Macro logistics network clusters (within and across related logistics networks for liquid bulk, dry bulk, packaged goods and gases) This dissertation presents a generic framework of applicable intra- and inter-supply chain planning processes that supports related long- (strategic), medium- (tactical) and short-term (operational) supply chain decisions for large-scale petrochemical companies. This type of companies has to manage relative complex supply chains. Highly complex supply chains (due to an extensive product portfolio, supplier base, customer base, manufacturing processes, transportation, and management processes and systems) require far more advanced planning processes than simple supply chains. Advanced supply chain planning processes cover an extended supply chain scope, deal with longer time horizons, and utilize more sophisticated analytical techniques and decision support systems. An extensive literature study, supplemented by empirical research in the South African petrochemical industry, provided the foundation for the advanced supply chain planning framework concluded in this dissertation. Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire presented to an informed audience constitute the empirical research conducted. The related best practices, concepts, approaches followed, and level of advancement in three supply chain planning dimensions were derived. To guide petrochemical companies along the planning advancement journey, the roadmap developed can be utilized for the application and implementation of the advanced supply chain planning framework. This roadmap articulates the advancement stages, dimensions, characteristics, and triggers to advance. Typical characteristics associated with the advancement stages and dimensions provide the means for a company to assess their level of progression. The essential mechanisms that can enable interventions are also articulated.
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Cooper, Tessa L. "Case Adaptation for an Intelligent Decision Support System for Diabetes Management." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1289585163.
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Van, der Merwe Adri. "A decision support system for scheduling the harvesting and wine making processes at a winery." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/3046.
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Thesis (MSc (Logistics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Technological advances made over the past century have had a major impact on traditional wineries. Software solutions for management issues are widely available and give rise to the prospect of computerized decision support systems assisting in various aspects of managing a winery. The most popular applications seem to be concerned with supply chain management or harvest scheduling. Such projects are under way all over the globe and great success has been achieved to this e ect. However, prior to this study no such project has been considered in South Africa. The phrase active cellar scheduling problem refers to the assignment of grape batches to processors inside the cellar where bottlenecks often occur during the busy harvesting period. The phrase harvest scheduling problem, on the other hand, refers to selecting the best possible dates to harvest the respective vineyard blocks in order to preserve grape quality. A mixed integer programming model for the active cellar scheduling problem is derived in this thesis, but proves to be too time consuming to solve exactly via the branch-and-bound method. A meta-heuristic tabu search approach is therefore designed to solve the problem approximately instead. When applied to a small, ctitious cellar, it is found that the tabu search method often solves the problem optimally. The computer processing time associated with the tabu search approach also constitutes a signi cant (often thousand-fold) improvement over that of the branch-and-bound approach for realistically sized problem instances. A generic tabu search is also designed to solve the over-arching harvest scheduling problem for a general winery. This schedule is found by referring to the smaller tabu search of the active cellar scheduling in order to verify the impact that harvesting moves have on activities in the cellar. One harvesting schedule is considered a better schedule than another when it has a lower harvest evaluation score, determined by the placement of the vineyard blocks in the harvesting schedule. The harvest evaluation score takes into account the combination of vineyard blocks selected for harvesting on the same day (and their e ect on the active cellar) as well as the ripeness and quality of the grapes. Both tabu searches are nally included in a exible, computerized decision support system, called VinDSS. This system is found to produce good harvesting schedules when compared to an actual ve day schedule during the 2009 harvesting period at Wamakersvallei, a winery serving as case study for this thesis.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tegnologiese vooruitgang oor die afgelope eeu het 'n groot invloed op tradisionele wynkelders gehad. Sagteware-oplossings wat besluitsteun tot bestuursaangeleenthede bied, is algemeen beskikbaar en het gelei tot die rekenaarmatige implementering van besluitsteunstelsels vir wynkelders. Dit blyk dat die mees popul^ere besluitsteuntoepassings in die wynindustrie te make het met besluite rakende van voorsieningskettings en oes-skedulering. Sulke besluitsteunprojekte is w^ereldwyd onderweg en het alreeds groot sukses behaal. Daar is egter tot dusver geen so 'n projek in Suid-Afrika onderneem nie. Die frase aktiewe kelderskeduleringsprobleem verwys na die toekenning van druifvragte aan masjiene binne die kelder waar bottelnekke algemeen tydens die besige parstydperk voorkom. Die frase oes-skeduleringsprobleem, daarenteen, verwys na die seleksie van bes moontlike oesdatums vir elk van die wingerdblokke om sodoende druifkwaliteit te verseker. 'n Gemengde heeltallige programmeringsmodel is vir die aktiewe kelderskeduleringsprobleem ontwikkel, maar die rekenaaroplossingstyd van hierdie benadering blyk te lank te wees om die probleem eksak deur middel van 'n vertak-en-begrens metode op te los. 'n Meta-heuristiese tabu soektog is dus ontwikkel om die probleem benaderd op te los. Wanneer hierdie benadering op 'n klein, ktiewe kelder toegepas word, word optimale oplossings dikwels verkry. Verder toon die rekenaaroplossingstyd van die tabu soektog 'n groot (in sommige gevalle byna 'n duisendvoudige) verbetering op di e van die eksakte oplossingsmetode. 'n Generiese tabu soektog is ook ontwikkel om die oorkoepelende oes-skeduleringsprobleem vir 'n algemene wynkelder op te los. So 'n oes-skedule word gevind deur na die kleiner tabu soektog vir die aktiewe kelderskedulering te verwys om sodoende die e ekte van veranderinge in die oesskedule op die prosesse binne die aktiewe kelder na te speur. Een oes-skedule word beter as 'n ander skedule beskou wanneer dit met 'n beter oes-evalueringswaarde gepaard gaan, soos deur die plasing van die wingerdblokke in die skedule bepaal. Die oes-evalueringswaarde neem die moontlike kombinasies van wingerblokke wat op dieselfde dag geoes word, in ag (en ook die e ek wat dit op aktiwiteite in die kelder het), asook die rypheid en kwaliteit van die druiwe. Beide tabu soektogte word in 'n plooibare, rekenaar-ge mplementeerde besluitsteunstelsel, bekend as VinDSS, ingesluit. Daar word gevind dat hierdie stelsel goeie oes-skedules lewer wanneer dit vergelyk word met 'n werklike vyf-dag skedule tydens die 2009 parsseisoen van Wamakersvallei, die kelder wat as gevallestudie vir hierdie tesis gedien het.
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Anand, Farminder Singh. "Bayesian framework for improved R&D decisions." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/39530.
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This thesis work describes the formulation of a Bayesian approach along with new tools to systematically reduce uncertainty in Research&Development (R&D) alternatives. During the initial stages of R&D many alternatives are considered and high uncertainty exists for all the alternatives. The ideal approach in addressing the many R&D alternatives is to find the one alternative which is stochastically dominant i.e. the alternative which is better in all possible scenarios of uncertainty. Often a stochastically dominant alternative does not exist. This leaves the R&D manager with two alternatives, either to make a selection based on user defined utility function or to gather more information in order to reduce uncertainty in the various alternatives. From the decision makers perspective the second alternative has more intrinsic value, since reduction of uncertainty will improve the confidence in the selection and further reduce the high downside risk involved with the decisions made under high uncertainty.
The motivation for this work is derived from our preliminary work on the evaluation of biorefiney alternatives, which brought into limelight the key challenges and opportunities in the evaluation of R&D alternatives. The primary challenge in the evaluation of many R&D alternatives was the presence of uncertainty in the many unit operations within each and every alternative. Additionally, limited or non-existent experimental data made it infeasible to quantify the uncertainty and lead to inability to develop an even simple systematic strategy to reduce it. Moreover, even if the uncertainty could be quantified, the traditional approaches (scenario analysis or stochastic analysis), lacked the ability to evaluate the key group of uncertainty contributors. Lastly, the traditional design of experiment approaches focus towards reduction in uncertainty in the parameter estimates of the model, whereas what is required is a design of experiment approach which focuses on the decision (selection of the key alternative). In order to tackle all the above mentioned challenges a Bayesian framework along with two new tools is proposed. The Bayesian framework consists of three main steps:
a. Quantification of uncertainty
b. Evaluation of key uncertainty contributors
c. Design of experiment strategies, focussed on decision making rather than the traditional parameter uncertainty reduction
To quantify technical uncertainty using expert knowledge, existing elicitation methods in the literature (outside chemical engineering domain) are used. To illustrate the importance of quantifying technical uncertainty, a bio-refinery case study is considered. The case study is an alternative for producing ethanol as a value added product in a Kraft mill producing pulp from softwood. To produce ethanol, a hot water pre-extraction of hemi-cellulose is considered, prior to the pulping stage. Using this case study, the methodology to quantify technical uncertainty using experts' knowledge is demonstrated.
To limit the cost of R&D investment for selection or rejection of an R&D alternative, it is essential to evaluate the key uncertainty contributors. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a tool which can be used to evaluate the key uncertainties. But quite often global sensitivity analysis fails to differentiate between the uncertainties and assigns them equal global sensitivity index. To counter this failing of GSA, a new method conditional global sensitivity (c-GSA) is presented, which is able to differentiate between the uncertainties even when GSA fails to do so. To demonstrate the value of c-GSA many small examples are presented.
The third and the last key method in the Bayesian framework is the decision oriented design of experiment. Traditional 'Design of Experiment' (DOE) approaches focus on minimization of parameter error variance. In this work, a new "decision-oriented" DOE approach is proposed that takes into account how the generated data, and subsequently, the model developed based on them will be used in decision making. By doing so, the parameter variances get distributed in a manner such that its adverse impact on the targeted decision making is minimal. Results show that the new decision-oriented DOE approach significantly outperforms the standard D-optimal design approach. The new design method should be a valuable tool when experiments are conducted for the purpose of making R&D decisions.
Finally, to demonstrate the importance of the overall Bayesian framework a bio-refinery case study is considered. The case study consists of the alternative to introduce a hemi-cellulose pre-extraction stage prior to pulping in a thermo-mechanical pulp mill. Application of the Bayesian framework to address this alternative, results in significant improvement in the prediction of the true potential value of the alternative.
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O'Neil, Daniel Arthur. "An integrated decision support system for spectator transportation planning for the 1996 Summer Olympics." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/24540.
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Sukumara, Sumesh. "A MULTIDISCIPLINARY TECHNO-ECONOMIC DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR VALIDATING LONG-TERM ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF BIOREFINING PROCESSES." UKnowledge, 2014. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/cme_etds/42.
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Increasing demand for energy and transportation fuel has motivated researchers all around the world to explore alternatives for a long-term sustainable source of energy. Biomass is one such renewable resource that can be converted into various marketable products by the process of biorefining. Currently, research is taking strides in developing conversion techniques for producing biofuels from multiple bio-based feedstocks. However, the greatest concern with emerging processes is the long-term viability as a sustainable source of energy. Hence, a framework is required that can incorporate novel and existing processes to validate their economic, environmental and social potential in satisfying present energy demands, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own energy needs.
This research focuses on developing a framework that can incorporate fundamental research to determine its long-term viability, simultaneously providing critical techno-economic and decision support information to various stakeholders. This contribution links various simulation and optimization models to create a decision support tool, to estimate the viability of biorefining options in any given region. Multiple disciplines from the Process Systems Engineering and Supply Chain Management are integrated to develop the comprehensive framework. Process simulation models for thermochemical and biochemical processes are developed and optimized using Aspen Engineering Suite. Finally, for validation, the framework is analyzed by combining the outcomes of the process simulation with the supply chain models. The developed techno-economic model takes into account detailed variable costs and capital investments for various conversion processes. Subsequently, case studies are performed to demonstrate the applicability of the decision support tool for the Jackson Purchase region of Western Kentucky. The multidisciplinary framework is a unique contribution in the field of Process Systems Engineering as it demonstrates simulation of process optimization models and illustrates its iterative linking with the supply chain optimization models to estimate the economics of biorefinery from multi-stakeholder perspective. This informative tool not only assists in comparing modes of operation but also forecasts the effect of future scenarios, such as, utilization of marginal land for planting dedicated energy crops and incorporation of emerging enzymatic processes. The resulting framework is novel and informative in assisting investors, policy makers and other stakeholders for evaluating the impacts of biorefining. The results obtained supports the generalizability of this tool to be applied in any given region and guide stakeholders in making financial and strategic decisions.
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Sontamino, Phongpat. "Decision support system of coal mine planning using system dynamics model." Doctoral thesis, Technische Universitaet Bergakademie Freiberg Universitaetsbibliothek "Georgius Agricola", 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:105-qucosa-159919.
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Coal is a fossil fuel mineral, which is presently a major source of electricity and energy to industries. From past to present, there are many coal reserves around the world and large scale coal mining operates in various areas such as the USA, Russia, China, Australia, India, and Germany, etc. Thailand’s coal resources can be found in many areas; there are lignite mining in the north of Thailand, the currently operational Mae Moh Lignite Mine, and also coal reserves in the south of Thailand, such as Krabi and Songkhla, where mines are not yet operating. The main consumption of coal is in electricity production, which increases annually. In 2019, the Thai Government and Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) plans to run a 800 MW coal power plant at Krabi, which may run on imported coal, despite there being reserves of lignite at Krabi; the use of domestic coal is a last option because of social and environmental concerns about the effects of coal mining. There is a modern trend in mining projects, the responsibility of mining should cover not only the mining activity, but the social and environmental protection and mine closure activities which follow. Thus, the costs and decisions taken on by the mining company are increasingly complicated.
To reach a decision on investment in a mining project is not easy; it is a complex process in which all variables are connected. Particularly, the responsibility of coal mining companies to society and the environment is a new topic. Thus, a tool to help to recognize and generate information for decision making is in demand and very important. In this thesis, the system dynamics model of coal mine planning is made by using Vensim Software and specifically designed to encompass many variables during the period of mining activity until the mine closure period. The decisions use economic criteria such as Net Present Value (NPV), Net Cash Flow (NCF), Payback Period (PP), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), etc.
Consequently, the development of the decision support system of coal mine planning as a tool is proposed. The model structure covers the coal mining area from mine reserves to mine closure. It is a fast and flexible tool to perform sensitivity analysis, and to determine an optimum solution. The model results are clear and easily understandable on whether to accept or reject the coal mine project, which helps coal mining companies make the right decisions on their policies, economics, and the planning of new coal mining projects.
Furthermore, the model is used to analyse the case study of the Krabi coal-fired power plant in Thailand, which may possibly use the domestic lignite at Krabi. The scenario simulations clearly show some potential for the use of the domestic lignite. However, the detailed analysis of the Krabi Lignite Mine Project case shows the high possible risks of this project, and that this project is currently not feasible. Thus, the model helps to understand and confirm that the use of domestic lignite in Krabi for the Krabi Coal Power Plant Project is not suitable at this time. Therefore, the best choice is imported coal from other countries for supporting the Krabi Coal Power Plant Project.
Finally, this tool successfully is a portable application software, which does not need to be installed on a computer, but can run directly in a folder of the existing application. Furthermore, it supports all versions of Windows OS.
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Ghodsypour, Seyed Hassan. "A decision support system for supplier selection integrating analytical hierarchy process with operations research methods." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.337182.
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Woodring, Wade Dodd. "A decision support system for planning the athlete transportation system serving the 1996 sumer olympics games." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/23415.
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Odqvist, Patrik. "Information Visualization of Assets under Management : A qualitative research study concerning decision support design for InfoVis dashboards in fund management." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-280848.
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Information visualization dashboards are a widely used supportive tool in decision making. These tools can be difficult to create and utilize especially for the novice user. There is an extensive collection of company related data for decision making, resulting in a need of assistive tools. Prototypes were developed to research and identify design guidelines how to support fund managers in their decision making. This was carried out as a qualitative study involving 7 experts in fund management. The results provide insights and guidelines in decision supportive design for dashboards. The results indicate that there is a threshold in the number of displayed elements without limiting the cognitive analysis by the user. Three aspects; size, distribution and time should be included in the generating of suitable graphics. Assistive tools for connecting multiple context domains has been identified as a crucial element of decision support design. These guidelines should be investigated further in larger and more diverse studies in order to prove its full validity.Information visualiserings dashboards är ett väl etablerat verktyg i beslutsfattning. Sådana verktyg kan vara utmanande att skapa och använda speciellt för en oerfaren användare. Idag samlas det in stora mängder av företagsrelaterad data för beslutsfattning vilket resulterar i ett behov av hjälpande verktyg. I den här studien utvecklades flera prototyper för att undersöka och tag fram designriktlinjer för hur man ska utforma och hjälpa fondförvaltare i sitt beslutsfattande. En kvalitativ studie genomfördes med 7 experter inom fond och kapitalförvaltning i framtagandet av designriktlinjer. Resultaten visar riktlinjer för beslutsstöd i utformningen av dashboards. Resultaten indikerar att det finns en gräns för hur många element man bör presentera för en användare utan att försvåra användarens kognitiva analysförmåga. Tre karaktärsdrag; storlek, distribution och tid påverkar utformningen av passande grafik. Studien har även identifierat behovet av verktyg för sammankopplingen mellan flera olika kontextdomäner i och med den kollaborativa delen av beslutsfattning. Dessa designriktlinjer ligger till grund för fortsatt undersökning i större och mer varierade studier för att styrka dess validitet.
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Koukal, André [Verfasser]. "Contributions to decision support for wind energy, literature research processes and towards a better world through information systems / André Koukal." Hannover : Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1173321853/34.
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Watson, Neil Mark. "Developing decision support for Foodbank South Africa's allocation system: an application of operational research techniques to aid decision-making at a not-for-profit organization." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11775.
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There is a dearth of research on the application of hard Operational Research (OR) techniques (simulation, linear programming, goal programming, etc.) in determining optimal ordering, inventory and allocation policies for goods within distribution systems in developing countries. This study aims to assist decision making at a not-for-profit organization (NPO), Foodbank South Africa (FBSA), within its allocation system through a combined ‘soft-hard’ OR approach. Two problem-structuring tools (soft OR), Causal Mapping (CM) and Soft System Methodology’s Root Definitions (RDs), are used to structure the organization's goals (in order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the decision-context) and gain a better understanding of the ‘decision-issues’ in the allocation system at its Cape Town warehouse.
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Kayondo-Ndandiko, Lydia Mazzi. "Geographical Information Technologies – Decision Support for Road Maintenance in Uganda." Doctoral thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Sektionen för planering och mediedesign, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-00539.
Full textAbstract:
This study set out to develop a framework within which the use of Geographical Information Technologies (GITs) can be enhanced in Road Infrastructure Maintenance (RIM) in Uganda. Specifically it was guided by 3 objectives; 1. To assess the gaps in the use of GITs for RIM in Uganda and the limitations to accessing these technologies, 2. To develop a methodological framework to enhance the use of GITs in RIM and 3. To develop a Geographical Information Systems for Transportation (GIS-T) data model based on the road maintenance data requirements. A participatory approach through a series of interviews, focus group discussions, workshop & conferences, document reviews, field observations & measurements and GIS analysis were employed. Based on the Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) concept and the principle of Causality, the gaps and limitations were established to mainly be concerned with data and organisational constraints as opposed to technical issues. They were classified to include; inadequate involvement of GITs in organisational activities, inappropriate institutional arrangements, absence of data sharing frameworks, budget constraints, insufficient geospatial capacity, digital divide in the perception, adoption & affordability of GITs among the stakeholders and the absence of a road maintenance Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI). A methodological framework, comprising of 6 strategic components was developed to enhance the use of GITs in RIM. This included enactment of relevant policy components to guide GIT use, continuous capacity building, establishment of a road maintenance SDI, fostering collaboration and spatial data sharing frameworks, budgetary allocation based on defined activities inclusive of GIT initiatives, and adoption of a dynamic segmentation data model. Conceptual and logical data models were developed and proposed for the Sector. The conceptual model, presented using an entity relationship diagram, relates the road network to the point and line events occurring on it. The logical object relational model developed using the ESRI provided template represents the road and the point and line events in a total of 19 object classes. The Study concludes that in order to ground GIT benefits in the sector; technical, data and organisational concerns involved in GIT undertakings should be accorded equal emphasis. Institutionalisation and diffusion of GITs as aspects of the component strategies are regarded capacity building mechanisms earmarked to boost success in GIT initiatives. Further research on diffusion and funding models for GIT initiatives is recommended. It is suggested that aspects of the proposed model be considered when establishing GIT standards for the sector. The RIM sector is encouraged to embrace Science and Technology and to participate in Research and Development and particularly to adopt the culture of innovation considering the ready availability of off the shelf equipment, freeware and open source software that can foster informed decision making.
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Engelbrecht, Judith Merrylyn. "Electronic clinical decision support (eCDS) in primary health care: a multiple case study of three New Zealand PHOs : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Systems at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand." Massey University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10179/1107.
Full textAbstract:
Health care providers internationally are facing challenges surrounding the delivery of high quality, cost effective services. The use of integrated electronic information systems is seen by many people working in the health sector as a way to address some of the associated issues. In New Zealand the primary health care sector has been restructured to follow a population based care model and provides services through not-for-profit Primary Health Organisations (PHOs). PHOs, together with their District Health Boards (DHBs), contributing service providers, and local communities, are responsible for the care of their enrolled populations. The Ministry of Health (MoH) is streamlining information sharing in this environment through improvements to computer based information systems (IS). By providing health professionals with improved access to required information within an appropriate time frame, services can be targeted efficiently and effectively and patient health outcomes potentially improved. However, the adoption of IS in health care has been slower than in other industries. Therefore, a thorough knowledge of health care professionals’ attitudes to, and use of, available IS is currently needed to contribute to the development of appropriate systems. This research employs a multiple case study strategy to establish the usage of IS by three New Zealand PHOs and their member primary health care providers (PHPs), with a focus on the role of IS in clinical decision support (CDS). A mixed method approach including semi-structured interviews and postal surveys was used in the study. Firstly, the research develops and applies a survey tool based on an adaptation of an existing framework, for the study of IT sophistication in the organisations. This provides the foundation for an in-depth study of the use of computerised CDS (eCDS) in the PHO environment. Secondly, a conceptual model of eCDS utilisation is presented, illustrating the variation of eCDS use by member general practitioner (GP) practices within individual organisations. Thirdly, five areas of importance for improving eCDS utilisation within PHO’s are identified, contributing information of use to organisations, practitioners, planners, and systems developers. Lastly, the research provides a structure for the study of the domain of eCDS in PHOs by presenting a research approach and information specific for the area.
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Ng, Irene, Ralph Badinelli, Francesco Polese, Nauta Primiano Di, Helge Löbler, and Sue Halliday. "S-D logic research directions and opportunities." Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-218383.
Full textAbstract:
To date, several disciplines have broached the systems view of service and the engineering of service systems. Operations research applied to services began with a rather simplistic, macro view of resource integration in the form of data envelopment analysis (DEA), introduced by Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes in 1978 (Banker et al., 1984; Charnes et al., 1994). Micro models of service systems have tended to study the systems’ IT components (Hsu, 2009; Qiu 2009). Engineering, which has always been associated with ‘assembling pieces that work in specific ways’ (Ottino, 2004) and ‘a process of precise composition to achieve a predictable purpose and function’ (Fromm, 2010: 2), has contributed to greater scalability and purposeful control in service systems. However, the agents of the system are usually people whose activities may not easily be controlled by predictable processes and yet are critical aspects of the value-creating system (Ng et al., 2011b). There is need for a new combinative paradigm, such as third-generation activity theory, in which two or more activity systems come into contact, to explore dialogue, exchanging perspectives of multiple actors, resulting in networks or groups of activity systems that are constantly interacting (Marken, 2006; Nardi, 1996, Oliveros et al., 2010).
While various systems approaches, such as general systems theory (von Bertalanffy, 1962); open systems theory (Boulding, 1956; Katz and Kahn, 1978); and viable systems approach (Barile, 2008; Beer, 1972; Golinelli, 2010), will not be reviewed here (see Ng et al., 2011a for a systems approach to service science), they share common tenets: boundaries, interfaces, hierarchy, feedback and adaptation to which most systems writers would add emergence, input, output and transformation (Kast and Rosenzweig, 1972). These terms may be used as a basis for a research agenda for the consideration of a service system.
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Sheikh, Nasir Jamil. "Assessment of Solar Photovoltaic Technologies Using Multiple Perspectives and Hierarchical Decision Modeling." PDXScholar, 2013. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/978.
Full textAbstract:
The objective of this research is to build a decision model for a comprehensive assessment of solar photovoltaic technologies using multiple perspectives. These perspectives include: social, technological, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP) with each perspective consisting of multiple criteria. Hierarchical decision modeling and expert judgment quantification are used to provide the relative ranking of the perspectives and criteria. Such modeling is effective in addressing technology evaluations with competing and contrasting perspectives and criteria where both quantitative and qualitative measurements are represented. The model is then operationalized by constructing desirability functions for each criterion. The combined results provide an overall numerical score for each technology under consideration as well as criteria desirability gaps. This model is useful for assessing photovoltaic technologies from varying worldviews such as the electric utility worldview, the photovoltaic manufacturer's worldview, or the national policy worldview. This model can also provide guidance to decision makers and practitioners on areas of improvement for a selected technology. The research utilizes the electric utility worldview as a case study.
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Yang, Chun Chieh. "Evaluating online support for mobile phone selection : using properties and performance criteria to reduce information overload : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Information Science in Information Systems at Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand." Massey University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10179/844.
Full textAbstract:
The mobile phone has been regarded as one of the most significant inventions in the field of communications and information technology over the past decade. Due to the rapid growth of mobile phone subscribers, hundreds of phone models have been introduced. Therefore, customers may find it difficult to select the most appropriate mobile phone because of information overload. The aim of this study is to investigate web support for customers who are selecting a mobile phone. Firstly, all the models of mobile phones in the New Zealand market were identified by visiting shops and local websites. Secondly, a list of all the features of these mobile phones was collated from local shops, websites and magazines. This list was categorised into mobile phone properties and performance criteria. An experiment then compared three different selection support methods: A (mobile phone catalogue), B (mobile phone property selection) and C (mobile phone property and performance criteria selection). The results of the experiment revealed that selection support methods B and C had higher overall satisfaction ratings than selection support method A; both methods B and C had similar satisfaction ratings. The results also suggested that males and females select their mobile phones differently, though there was no gender preference in selection support methods.
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Mobley, Frederick Leonard. "Behavioral Operations Management in Federal Governance." ScholarWorks, 2015. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/1570.
Full textAbstract:
The environmental uncertainty of federal politics and acquisition outsourcing in competitive markets requires an adaptive decision-analysis structure. Practitioners oriented toward exclusively static methods face severe challenges in understanding qualitative aspects of organizational governance. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to examine and understand behavioral relationship attributes within intuitive, choice, judgment, or preference decision-making processes. The problem addressed in this study was the detrimental effects of organizational citizenship behavior (OCB), compulsory citizenship behavior (CCB), and social exchange theory (SET) on the acquisition management relationship The OCB, CCB, SET dictates that sound business development, relationship acumen, emotional intelligence and perceptiveness transcend pure numerical quantification. Exhibition of relationship-based attributes influence and drive long-term contractual relationships and the sustainability of business organizations.
The data collected included historical data and survey responses. Approximately 34,000 acquisition professionals comprised the population-sampling frame. The study sample consisted of 378 survey responses that yielded 294 qualifying respondents with 94 disqualifications that produced a 78% response rate. The Carnegie-Mellon behavioral survey guidelines underpinned questionnaire construction and affirmation of themes. Strauss and Corbin grounded theory and theme generation addressed behavioral decision making under the additive model that inform the development of an organizational social operations and business framework that accounts for intuitive judgment. The study may contribute to positive social change by orienting managers toward behavioral decision making, ensuring responsiveness to the public and federal governance
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Zavichi, Tork Amir. "A real-time crane service scheduling decision support system (CSS-DSS) for construction tower cranes." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2013. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/6041.
Full textAbstract:
The success of construction projects depends on proper use of construction equipment and machinery to a great extent. Thus, appropriate planning and control of the activities that rely on construction equipment could have significant effects on improving the efficiency of project operations. Cranes are the largest and most conspicuous construction equipment, widely used in typical construction sites. They play a major role in relocation of materials in horizontal and vertical directions on construction sites. Given the nature of activities relying on construction cranes in various stages of a project, cranes normally have control over the critical path of the project with the potential to create schedule bottlenecks and delaying the completion of the project. This dissertation intends to improve crane operations efficiency by developing a new framework for optimizing crane service sequence schedule. The crane service sequence problem is mathematically formulated as an NP-complete optimization problem based on the well-known Travel Salesman Problem (TSP) and is solved using different optimization techniques depending on the problem's size and complexity. The proposed framework sets the basis for developing near-real time decision support tools for on-site optimization of crane operations sequence. To underline the value of the proposed crane sequence optimization methods, these methods are employed to solve several numerical examples. Results show that the proposed method can create a travel time saving of 28% on average in comparison with conventional scheduling methods such as First in First out (FIFO), Shortest Job First (SJF), and Earliest Deadline First (EDF).Ph.D.
Doctorate
Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering
Engineering and Computer Science
Civil Engineering
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Bethel, Matthew. "Geospatial Technology/Traditional Ecological Knowledge-Derived Information Tools for the Enhancement of Coastal Restoration Decision Support Processes." ScholarWorks@UNO, 2010. http://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/1228.
Full textAbstract:
This research investigated the feasibility and benefits of integrating geospatial technology with traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) of an indigenous Louisiana coastal population in order to assess the impacts of current and historical ecosystem change to community viability. The primary goal was to provide resource managers with a comprehensive method of assessing localized ecological change in the Gulf Coast region that can benefit community sustainability. Using Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and other geospatial technologies integrated with a coastal community's TEK to achieve this goal, the objectives were (1) to determine a method for producing vulnerability/sustainability mapping products for an ecosystem-dependent livelihood base of a coastal population that results from physical information derived from RS imagery and supported, refined, and prioritized with TEK, and (2) to demonstrate how such an approach can engage affected community residents who are interested in understanding better marsh health and ways that marsh health can be recognized, and the causes of declining marsh determined and addressed. TEK relevant to the project objectives collected included: changes in the flora and fauna over time; changes in environmental conditions observed over time such as land loss; a history of man-made structures and impacts to the area; as well as priority areas of particular community significance or concern. Scientific field data collection measured marsh vegetation health characteristics. These data were analyzed for correlation with satellite image data acquired concurrently with field data collection. Resulting regression equations were applied to the image data to produce estimated marsh health maps. Historical image datasets of the study area were acquired to understand evolution of land change to current conditions and project future vulnerability. Image processing procedures were developed and applied to produce maps that detail land change in the study area at time intervals from 1968 to 2009. This information was combined with the TEK and scientific datasets in a GIS to produce mapping products that provide new information to the coastal restoration decision making process. This information includes: 1) what marsh areas are most vulnerable; and 2) what areas are most significant to the sustainability of the community.
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Ng, Irene, Ralph Badinelli, Francesco Polese, Nauta Primiano Di, Helge Löbler, and Sue Halliday. "S-D logic research directions and opportunities: the perspective of systems, camplexity and engeneering." Marketing Theory, 2012 June; Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 213-217, 2012. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A15287.
Full textAbstract:
To date, several disciplines have broached the systems view of service and the engineering of service systems. Operations research applied to services began with a rather simplistic, macro view of resource integration in the form of data envelopment analysis (DEA), introduced by Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes in 1978 (Banker et al., 1984; Charnes et al., 1994). Micro models of service systems have tended to study the systems’ IT components (Hsu, 2009; Qiu 2009). Engineering, which has always been associated with ‘assembling pieces that work in specific ways’ (Ottino, 2004) and ‘a process of precise composition to achieve a predictable purpose and function’ (Fromm, 2010: 2), has contributed to greater scalability and purposeful control in service systems. However, the agents of the system are usually people whose activities may not easily be controlled by predictable processes and yet are critical aspects of the value-creating system (Ng et al., 2011b). There is need for a new combinative paradigm, such as third-generation activity theory, in which two or more activity systems come into contact, to explore dialogue, exchanging perspectives of multiple actors, resulting in networks or groups of activity systems that are constantly interacting (Marken, 2006; Nardi, 1996, Oliveros et al., 2010).
While various systems approaches, such as general systems theory (von Bertalanffy, 1962); open systems theory (Boulding, 1956; Katz and Kahn, 1978); and viable systems approach (Barile, 2008; Beer, 1972; Golinelli, 2010), will not be reviewed here (see Ng et al., 2011a for a systems approach to service science), they share common tenets: boundaries, interfaces, hierarchy, feedback and adaptation to which most systems writers would add emergence, input, output and transformation (Kast and Rosenzweig, 1972). These terms may be used as a basis for a research agenda for the consideration of a service system.
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Zheng, Guangzhi. "A Multidimensional and Visual Exploration Approach to Project Portfolio Management." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2009. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/cis_diss/34.
Full textAbstract:
Managing projects in an organization, especially a project-oriented organization, is a challenging task. Project data has a large volume and is complex to manage. It is different from managing a single project, because one needs to integrate and synthesize information from multiple projects and multiple perspectives for high-level strategic business decisions, such as aligning projects with business objectives, balancing investment and expected return, and allocating resources. Current methods and tools either do not well integrate multiple aspects or are not intuitive and easy to use for managers and executives. In this dissertation project, a multidimensional and visual exploration approach was designed and evaluated to provide a unique and intuitive option to support decision making in project portfolio management. The research followed a general design science research methodology involving phases of awareness of problem, suggestion, development, evaluation and conclusion. The approach was implemented into a software system using a prototyping method and was evaluated through user interviews. The evaluation result demonstrates the utility and ease-of-use of the approach, and confirms design objectives. The research brings a new perspective and provides a new decision support tool for project portfolio management. It also contributes to the design knowledge of visual exploration systems for business portfolio management by theorizing the system.
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Stray, Bjorn Jonas. "Tactical sugarcane harvest scheduling." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/5194.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (PhD (Logistics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Computerised sugarcane harvest scheduling decision support is an active fi eld of research which ties in closely with the broader problem of automating and streamlining the various activities in the sugar supply chain. In this dissertation, the problem of providing decision support with respect to sugarcane harvesting decisions is defined within a number of contexts, each representing a typical kind of organisation of sugarcane farmers into a cohesive decision making unit with its speci fic requirements and limitations that exist in practice. A number of variations relevant to these contexts of an overarching tactical sugarcane harvest scheduling problem (THSP) are considered and solved in this dissertation. The THSP is the problem of providing objective, responsible decision support to persons charged with the task of determining optimal harvesting dates for a set of sugarcane fields across an entire season. Sugarcane fields typically diff er in terms of the age, variety, life-cycle stage and in many other properties of the cane grown on them. The growth of sugarcane crops may also be a ffected by environmental conditions such as accidental fires, frosts or storms which have a detrimental e ffect on crop-value. Since sugarcane is a living organism, its properties change over time, an so does the potential pro t associated with it. The practicalities of farming cause further complication of the problem (for example, seasonal changes alter the conditions under which the crop is harvested and transported). The rainy season carries with it the added cost of disallowing long-range vehicles to drive into the fields, forcing the unloading and reloading of cane at so-called loading zones. Other considerations, such as the early ploughing out of fields to allow them to fallow before being replanted, compounds the THSP into a multi-faceted difficult problem requiring efficient data management, mathematical modelling expertise and efficient computational work. In the literature the THSP has been viewed from many different standpoints and within many contexts, and a variety of operations research methodologies have been employed in solving the problem in part. There is, however, no description in the literature of a solution to the THSP that takes the negative e ffects of extreme environmental conditions on the quality of a harvesting schedule into account in a scienti fically justifi able manner; most models in the literature are based on optimising sucrose yield alone under normal conditions, rendering weak schedules in practice. The scope of the modelling and solution methodologies employed in this dissertation towards solving the THSP is restricted to integer programming formulations and approximate solution methods. The parameters associated with these models were determined empirically using historical data, as well as previous work on deterioration of sugarcane following environmental and other events. The THSP is solved in this dissertation by designing a generic architecture for a conceptual decision support system (DSS) for the THSP in the various contexts referred to above, which is capable of accommodating the e ects of extra-ordinary environmental conditions, as well as the introduction of a computer-implemented version of a real DSS for the THSP conforming to the framework of this generic architecture. The DSS building blocks include prediction models for sugarcane yield, sugarcane recoverable value under normal circumstances, the costs associated with a harvesting schedule and the negative e ects on sugarcane recoverable value of extraordinary environmental conditions. The working of the DSS is based on a combinatorial optimisation model resembling the well-known asymmetric traveling salesman problem with time-dependent costs which is solved approximately by means of an attribute-based tabu search in which both local and global moves have been incorporated. The DSS is also validated by experienced sugarcane industry experts in terms of the practicality and quality of the schedules that it produces.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Gerekenariseerde besluitsteun vir die skedulering van suikerriet-oeste is 'n aktiewe navorsingsveld wat nou verwant is aan die bre ër probleem van die outomatisering en vaartbelyning van 'n verskeidenheid aktiwiteite in die suikervoorsieningsketting. Die probleem van die daarstelling van steun rakende suikkerriet oestingsbesluite word in hierdie proefskrif in 'n aantal kontekste oorweeg, elk met betrekking tot 'n tipiese soort organisasie van suikerrietboere in 'n samehorige besluitnemingseenheid met sy spesi eke vereistes en beperkings in die praktyk. Verskeie variasies van 'n oorkoepelende taktiese suikerriet-oesskeduleringsprobleem (TSOSP) wat in hierde kontekste relevant is, naamlik die probleem om objektiewe, verantwoordbare steun aan besluitnemers te bied wat verantwoordelik is vir die bepaling van optimale oesdatums vir 'n versameling suikerrietplantasies oor die bestek van 'n hele seisoen, word in hierdie proefskrif bestudeer en opgelos. Suikerrietplantasies verskil tipies in terme van ouderdom, gewastipe, posisie in die lewensiklus, en vele ander eienskappe van die suikerriet wat daar groei. Omgewingstoestande, soos onbeplande brande, ryp of storms, het verder ook 'n negatiewe impak op die waarde van suikerriet op sulke plantasies. Omdat suikerriet 'n lewende organisme is, verander die eienskappe daarvan oor tyd, en so ook die potensi ele wins wat daarmee geassosieer word. Boerderypraktyke bemoeilik verder die skeduleringsprobleem onder beskouing (seisoenale veranderings beïnvloed byvoorbeeld die wyse waarop suikerriet ge-oes en vervoer word). Addisionele koste gaan voorts met die re ënseisoen gepaard, omdat die plantasies dan nie toeganklik is vir langafstand transportvoertuie nie en suikerriet gevolglik na spesiale laaisones gekarwei moet word voordat dit op hierdie voertuie gelaai kan word. Ander oorwegings, soos die vroe ë uitploeg van plantasies sodat die grond kan rus voordat nuwe suikerriet aangeplant word, veroorsaak dat die TSOSP 'n moeilike multi-faset probleem is, wat goeie databestuur, wiskundige modelleringsvernuf en doeltreff ende rekenaarwerk vereis. Die TSOSP word in die literatuur vanuit verskillende standpunte en in verskeie kontekste oorweeg, en 'n aantal uiteenlopende operasionele navorsingsmetodologie ë is al ingespan om hierdie probleem ten dele op te los. Daar is egter geen poging in die literatuur om 'n oplossing vir die TSOSP daar te stel waarin daar op 'n wetenskaplik-verantwoordbare wyse voorsiening gemaak word vir die negatiewe e ffekte wat uitsonderlike omgewingstoestande op die kwaliteit van oesskedules het nie; die meeste modelle in die literatuure is op slegs sukrose-opbrengs onder normale omstandighede gebaseer, wat lei na swak skedules in die praktyk. Die bestek van die wiskundige modellerings- en gepaardgaande oplossings-metodologie ë word in hierdie proefskrif vir die TSOSP beperk tot onderskeidelik heeltallige programmeringsformulerings en die bepaling van benaderde oplossings deur lokale soekprosedures. Die parameters wat met hierdie modelle en soekmetodes geassosieer word, word empiries bepaal deur gebruikmaking van historiese data asook bestaande werk oor die degradering van suikerriet as gevolg van omgewings- en ander eksterne faktore. Die TSOSP word in hierdie proefskrif opgelos deur die ontwerp van 'n generiese argitektuur vir 'n konseptuele besluitsteunstelsel (BSS) vir die TSOSP in die onderskeie kontekste waarna hierbo verwys word en wat die e ekte van uitsonderlike omgewingsfaktore in ag neem, asook die daarstelling van 'n rekenaar-ge ïmplementeerde weergawe van 'n daadwerklike BSS vir die TSOSP wat in die raamwerk van hierdie generiese argitektuur pas. Die boustene van hierdie BSS sluit modelle in vir die voorspelling van suikerrietopbrengs, die herwinbare waarde van suikerriet onder normale omstandighede, die verwagte koste geassosieer met 'n oesskedule en die negatiewe e ekte van omgewingsfaktore op die herwinbare waarde van suikerriet. Die werking van die BSS is gebaseer op 'n kombinatoriese optimeringsprobleem wat aan die welbekende asimmetriese handelreisigersprobleem met tyd-afhanklike kostes herinner, en hierdie model word benaderd opgelos deur middel van 'n eienskap-gebaseerde tabu-soektog waarin beide lokale en globale skuiwe ge ïnkorporeer is. Die BSS word ook gevalideer in terme van die haalbaarheid en kwaliteit van die skedules wat dit oplewer, soos geassesseer deur ervare kundiges in die suikerrietbedryf.
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Beyan, Timur. "A New Fuzzy-chaotic Modelling Proposal For Medical Diagnostic Processes." Master's thesis, METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12605924/index.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Main reason of this study is to set forth the internal paradox of the basic approach of the artificial intelligence in the medical field to by discussing on the theoretical and application levels and to suggest solutions in theory and practice against that. In order to rule out the internal paradox in the medical decision support systematic, a new medical model is suggested and based on this, concepts such as disease, health, etiology, diagnosis and treatment are questioned. Meanwhile, with the current scientific data, a simple application sample based on how a decision making system which was set up by fuzzy logic and which is based on the perception of human as a complex adaptive system has been explained. Finally, results of the research about accuracy and validity of this application, current improvements based on the current model and the location on the artificial intelligence theory is discussed.