Academic literature on the topic 'Demanda externa'

AbstractPotassium (K) demand by crops is almost as high as that of nitrogen (N) and plays a crucial role in many plant metabolic processes. Insufficient K application results in soil K mining, deficiency symptoms in crops, and decreased crop yields and quality. Crop K demands vary with crop types, growth patterns, nutrient needs at different physiological stages, and productivity. Science-based K application in crops needs to follow 4R Nutrient Stewardship to ensure high yield, improved farm income, and optimum nutrient use efficiency. Studies around the world report widespread K deficiency, ranging from tropical to temperate environments. Long-term experiments indicate significant yield responses to K application and negative K balances where K application is either omitted or applied suboptimally. Limited understanding of K supplementation dynamics from soil non-exchangeable K pools to the exchangeable and solution phases and over-reliance on native K supply to meet crop demand are major reasons for deficit of K supply to crops. Research on optimum timing of K fertilizer application in diverse climate–soil–crop systems is scarce. The common one-time basal K management practice is often not suitable to supply adequate K to the crops during peak demand phases. Besides, changes in crop establishment practices, residue retention, or fertigation require new research in terms of rate, time, or source of K application. The current review assesses the synchrony of K supply from indigenous soil system and from external sources vis-à-vis plant demand under different crops and cropping systems for achieving high yield and nutrient use efficiency.

Abstract Electrification of transport and heating, and the integration of low carbon technologies (LCT) is driving the need to know when and how much electricity is being consumed and generated by consumers. It is also important to know what external factors influence individual electricity demand.

Abstract Modern agricultural practices have increased the efficiency of food production with a decrease in their cost and prices for consumers. However, to some extent this has been detrimental to the ethical way in which livestock are treated, particularly in more intensive production systems. On the demand side, an increasing number of consumers are interested in the way that food is produced and the attributes behind it. Animal welfare is one of those ethical attributes that are particularly important for consumers, and at the retail level, it is reflected in a number of labels aiming at passing cues (due to its nature as a credence attribute) to consumers. For meat supply chains, these labels have the possibility to positively affect sales if consumers are willing to pay more for products with those attributes. Moreover, if increasing animal welfare implies higher costs of production, it is important for the supply chain to know whether these costs can be passed on to consumers. These issues have motivated a substantive literature on the measurement of consumers' interest in animal welfare and their willingness to pay for its attributes. The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of the economic theory behind the measurement of animal welfare and some empirical applications.

This chapter traces the historical evolution of working time and internal labor markets in the United Kingdom. The term “internal labor market” refers to the shielding of employment relations from the external labor market through mechanisms such as seniority policies, employment protections, internal promotion ladders, and differentiated job structures based on skill and knowledge development. The chapter then looks at the temporal organization of labor at PartnershipCo. It considers wage rates and pay structure, employment protections, mobility, and promotion opportunities, but finds that flexible scheduling is the most significant means of securing control. Flexible scheduling was found to be highly manager-controlled, even when institutionalized working time regulations were present.

Introdução: A doença de Parkinson (DP) apresenta etiologia multifatorial, que inclui disfunções genéticas e ambientais. Resulta da perda progressiva de células produtoras de dopamina na substância negra e do acúmulo de proteínas, principalmente a alfa-sinucleína (SNCA), nos corpos de Lewy. Esses aspectos levam a sintomatologia de bradicinesia, tremor de repouso e rigidez. Neurônios dopaminérgicos necessitam de demanda energética, assim, distúrbios mitocondriais, como bioenergéticos, mutações no DNA nuclear ou mitocondrial, alterações no transporte, movimento e morfologia dessa organela, estão associados à DP. Objetivo: Esclarecer a relação de distúrbios mitocondriais e o desenvolvimento da DP. Materiais e Métodos: Revisão bibliográfica da literatura realizada na bases de dados PubMed/MEDLINE, durante abril e maio de 2021, por meio do cruzamento dos descritores, cadastradas no DeCS, “Parkinson Disease” AND “Mitochondria”. Foram incluídos artigos com textos disponíveis completos gratuitamente, publicados nos últimos cinco anos, em inglês e português, com o estudo envolvendo humanos e excluídos aqueles cujo título ou resumo eram incoerentes com a linha de interesse da atual revisão. Com base nisso, encontraram-se 106 artigos, dos quais 8 foram selecionados, além de outros 2 e um livro didático, julgados importantes para a discussão do tema. Resultados: Evidências científicas mostram que mutações nos genes SNCA, LRRK2, Parkin e PINK1 implicam em mecanismos mitocondriais deficitários que desenvolvem a DP. A mutação do gene SNCA sensibiliza neurônios ao estresse oxidativo e provoca danos por toxinas, o que induz a fragmentação mitocondrial e a produção de radicais livres. A PARKIN previne o edema e a ruptura mitocondrial secundária à toxicidade, ou seja, relaciona-se à integridade mitocondrial. Alterações na proteína PINK1 interferem no potencial da membrana mitocondrial. Ademais, mutações na quinase LRRK2 interferem no tráfego mitocondrial e nas proteínas da membrana externa. Logo, modificações nesses genes além de diminuírem a atividade do complexo I da cadeia transportadora de elétrons, prejudicam a produção energética, a regulação da síntese de dopamina e sua neurotransmissão. Conclusão: De acordo com a literatura, observa-se a fundamental relação entre DP e disfunções mitocondriais, todavia mais estudos são necessários para esclarecer e justificar tal abordagem, como forma de melhorar o prognóstico e a terapêutica.

Buried pipelines can be exposed to displacement-controlled environmental loadings (such as landslides, earthquake fault movements, etc.) which impose deformation demands on the pipeline. When analyzing pipelines for these load scenarios, the deformation demands are typically characterized based on the curvature and/or the longitudinal tension and compression strain response of the pipe. The term “strain demand” is used herein to characterize the calculated longitudinal strain response of a pipeline subject to environmentally-induced deformation demands. The shape of the pipe steel stress-strain relationship can have a significant effect on the pipe strain demands computed using pipeline deformation analyses for displacement-controlled loading conditions. In general, with sufficient levels of imposed deformation demand, a pipe steel stress-strain curve with a relatively abrupt or “sharp” elastic-to-plastic transition will tend to lead to larger strain demands than a stress-strain curve with a relatively rounded elastic-to-plastic transition. Similarly, a stress-strain curve with relatively low strain hardening modulus characteristics will tend to lead to larger strain demands than a stress-strain curve with relatively high strain hardening modulus characteristics. High strength UOE pipe can exhibit significant levels of anisotropy (i.e., the shapes of the stress-strain relationships in the longitudinal tension/compression and hoop tension/compression directions can be significantly different). To the extent that the stress-strain curves in the different directions can have unfavorable shape characteristics, it follows that anisotropy can also play an important role in pipeline strain demand evaluations. This paper summarizes a pipeline industry research project aimed at evaluation of the effects of anisotropy and the shape of pipe steel stress-strain relationships on pipeline strain demand for X80 and X100 UOE pipe. The research included: a review of pipeline industry literature on the subject matter; a discussion of pipe steel plasticity concepts for UOE pipe; characterization of the anisotropy and stress-strain curve shapes for both conventional and high strain pipe steels; development of representative analytical X80 and X100 stress-strain relationships; and evaluation of a large matrix of ground-movement induced pipeline deformation scenarios to evaluate key pipe stress-strain relationship shape and anisotropy parameters. The main conclusion from this work is that pipe steel specifications for high strength UOE pipe for strain-based design applications should be supplemented to consider shape-characterizing parameters such as the plastic complementary energy.

The concept of Net-Zero Energy in building refers to a building which has an annual balance of energy flow at the utility meter of zero. The concept implies that the building may consume energy from an external provider at times in order to satisfy the building demands, but at other times it must produce enough on-site energy to compensate for this energy. The use of renewable energy technologies is implicit as the source of energy to compensate for any energy used from an external provider. Solar photovoltaic is a proved technology for achieving Net-Zero Energy building but economic factors has limited its broad use. The design stage of a solar photovoltaic project is critical to make a project feasible. In the design stage, the equipment sizing must be optimized in order to reduce the initial capital cost and, therefore, improve the economics of the project. For houses, which is the focus of this paper, a stand-alone solar photovoltaic system must supply the house energy demand at all times since it is not connected to the electric grid. As a means to size the system, data of solar energy availability must be used to ensure that the system will provide enough energy to satisfy the energy demand as well as provide energy to charge the batteries that will provide the energy required when the solar energy is not available. In this paper, a methodology to optimize the size of the photovoltaic array and the battery bank is proposed. The methodology accounts for Typical Meteorological Year data (TMY3) to ensure that the system, based on accepted statistical data, will be able to satisfy the energy demand at all times. An example that uses energy demand data obtained from the simulation of a house using the software EnergyGauge is used to illustrate the implementation of the methodology.

Thermal storage systems were originally designed to shift on-peak cooling production to off-peak cooling production to reduce on-peak electricity demand. Recently, however, the reduction of both on- and off-peak demands is becoming an exceedingly important issue. Reduction of on- and off-peak demands can also extend the life span and defer or eliminate the replacement of power transformers due to potential shortage of building power capacity caused by anticipated equipment load increases. Next day daily average electricity demand is a critical set point to operate chillers and associated pumps at the appropriate time. For this paper, a mathematical analysis of the annual daily average cooling of a building was conducted, and three real-time building load forecasting models were developed: a first-order autoregressive model, a random walk model, and a linear regression model. A comparison of results shows that the random walk model provides the best forecast. A complete control algorithm integrated with forecast model for a chiller plant including chillers, thermal storage system and pumping systems was developed to verify the feasibility of applying this algorithm in the building automation system. Application results are introduced in this paper as well.

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.

With the current state of automotive electrification, predicting which electrification pathway is likely to be the most economical over a 10- to 30-year outlook is wrought with uncertainty. The development of a range of technologies should continue, including statically charged battery electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and EVs designed for a combination of plug-in and electric road system (ERS) supply. The most significant uncertainties are for the costs related to hydrogen supply, electrical supply, and battery life. This greatly is dependent on electrolyzers, fuel-cell costs, life spans and efficiencies, distribution and storage, and the price of renewable electricity. Green hydrogen will also be required as an industrial feedstock for difficult-to-decarbonize areas such as aviation and steel production, and for seasonal energy buffering in the grid. For ERSs, it is critical to understand how battery life will be affected by frequent cycling and the extent to which battery technology from hybrid vehicles can be applied. Unsettled Issues in Electrical Demand for Automotive Electrification Pathways dives into the most critical issues the mobility industry is facing.

Tocilizumab is an anti-inflammatory medication that acts by inhibiting interleukin-6 (IL-6) and is shown to improve outcomes including mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 requiring supplemental oxygen. Ontario supply of tocilizumab is limited, and tocilizumab demand in Ontario might exceed supply in the near future. A strategy that includes using a fixed, single intravenous dose of 400 mg for eligible patients will help extend available supply and is likely effective in treatment of COVID-19. Sarilumab, another IL-6 inhibitor, can be considered as a substitute. Additional options to consider to optimize tocilizumab use include the use of a provincial dashboard to help monitor and allocate use and estimating supply-to-demand adequacy. Likewise, a centralized allocation lottery system could be employed as soon as predicted demand exceeds supply to help ensure fair allocation. However, other issues may need to be taken into account for allocation decisions, as appropriate.

Groundwater resources development and the threat of future drought in Garfield County, southwestern Utah, prompted a study of groundwater quality and quantity in the environs of Bryce Canyon National Park and Bryce Canyon City in Johns and Emery Valleys. Water quality, water quantity, and the potential for water-quality degradation are critical elements determining the extent and nature of future development in the valley. The community of Bryce Canyon City is an area of active tourism and, therefore, of potential increase in growth (likely from tourism-related development). Groundwater exists in Quaternary valley-fill and bedrock aquifers (the Tertiary Claron Formation and Cretaceous sandstone). Increased demand on drinking water warrants careful land-use planning and resource management to preserve surface and groundwater resources of Johns and Emery Valleys and surrounding areas that may be hydrologically connected to these valleys including Bryce Canyon National Park.

In this paper we investigate how the fiscal authorities, through tax policies or fiscal incentives, can play an important role in supporting digitalisation of the economy (digital transformation) to exploit its opportunities. Our approach is to track the influence of these policies indirectly through relevant determinants of internet adoption (connectivity and user enablers). Hence, we first establish empirically the influence of these enablers on internet use by estimating a reduced form equation of determinants of internet adoption (both demand- and supply-side factors). Then we assess the influence of a country’s fiscal policy stance on some of these enablers or determinants (direction and extent) throughout the internet value chain. Using these transmission mechanisms, we estimate the influence of the fiscal regime on digitalisation. We draw on our own empirical analysis and other relevant studies to support our recommendations to the fiscal authorities. Our findings emphasise the importance of trade-offs between short-term revenue objectives and the longer-term opportunity costs of higher revenue, enabled by the large positive externality effects of the sector, generating higher social returns than those accruing privately.

The Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) is tasked with the stewardship of billions of dollars’ worth of public invested highway infrastructure. Not only does INDOT continually seek design and operational policies that foster cost effective project delivery and procurement, they also seek opportunities for revenue generation. Due to population growth and the increased demand for online connectivity and global information transmission, the fiber-optic cable industry has experienced rapid growth over the past few years. Information and communication technology (ICT) companies have long sought to achieve higher economic productivity by installing fiber-optic cables in the right of way (ROW) of access-controlled highways. Based on these developments, an experiment was conducted to measure the economic impact in Indiana. To determine this impact, a database was developed by compartmentalizing the analysis into (1) GDP per county per industry type, (2) the natural growth of GDP as a factor, and (3) the extent of contribution of broadband in the growth of GDP. A general formula was developed to incorporate the adjusted median income on both the industry and county levels, along with a broadband contribution factor. This formula was employed to determine policies that can produce optimum economic outcome by leveraging the Pareto method.

For bridges that are experiencing deterioration, action is needed to ensure the structural performance is adequate for the demands imposed. Innovate repair and strengthening techniques can provide a cost-effective means to extend the service lives of bridges efficiently and safely. The use of fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) systems for the repair and strengthening of concrete bridges is increasing in popularity. Recognizing the potential benefits of the widespread use of FRP, a research project was initiated to determine the most appropriate applications of FRP in Indiana and provide recommendations for the use of FRP in the state for the repair and strengthening of bridges. The details of the research are presented in two volumes. Volume 1 provides the details of a study conducted to (1) summarize the state-of-the-art methods for the application of FRP to concrete bridges, (2) identify successful examples of FRP implementation for concrete bridges in the literature and examine past applications of FRP in Indiana through case studies, and (3) better understand FRP usage and installation procedures in the Midwest and Indiana through industry surveys. Volume 2 presents two experimental programs that were conducted to develop and evaluate various repair and strengthening methodologies used to restore the performance of deteriorated concrete bridge beams. The first program investigated FRP flexural strengthening methods, with a focus on adjacent box beam bridges. The second experimental program examined potential techniques for repairing deteriorated end regions of prestressed concrete bridge girders. Externally bonded FRP and near-surface-mounted (NSM) FRP were considered in both programs.

For bridges that are experiencing deterioration, action is needed to ensure the structural performance is adequate for the demands imposed. Innovate repair and strengthening techniques can provide a cost-effective means to efficiently and safely extend the service lives of bridges. The use of fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) systems for the repair and strengthening of concrete bridges is increasing in popularity. Recognizing the potential benefits of the widespread use of FRP, a research project was initiated to determine the most appropriate applications of FRP in Indiana and provide recommendations for the use of FRP in the state for the repair and strengthening of bridges. The details of the research are presented in two volumes. Volume 1 provides the details of a study conducted to (i) summarize the state-of-the-art for the application of FRP to concrete bridges, (ii) identify successful examples of FRP implementation for concrete bridges in the literature and examine past applications of FRP in Indiana through case studies, and (iii) better understand FRP usage and installation procedures in the Midwest and Indiana through industry surveys. Volume 2 presents two experimental programs that were conducted to develop and evaluate various repair and strengthening methodologies used to restore the performance of deteriorated concrete bridge beams. The first program investigated FRP flexural strengthening methods, with focus placed on adjacent box beam bridges. The second experimental program examined potential techniques for repairing deteriorated end regions of prestressed concrete bridge girders. Externally bonded FRP and near-surface-mounted (NSM) FRP were considered in both programs.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

In Colombia, as well as in the rest of the world, the Covid-19 pandemic has seriously damaged the health and well-being of the people. In order to limit the damage, local and national authorities have had to order large sectors of the population to be confined at their homes for long periods of time. An inevitable consequence of isolation has been the collapse of economic activity, expenditure, and employment, a phenomenon that has hit many countries of the world affected by the disease. It is an unprecedented crisis in modern times, not so much for its intensity (which is undoubtedly immense), but because its origin is not economic. That is what makes it so unpredictable and difficult to manage. Naturally, its economic consequences are enormous. Governments and central banks from all over the world are struggling to mitigate them, but the final solution is not in the hands of the economic authorities. Only science can provide a way out. In the meantime, the economic indicators in Colombia and in the rest of the world cause concern. The output falls, the massive loss of jobs, and the closure of businesses of all sizes have become daily news. Added to this, there is the deterioration in global financial conditions and the increase in the risk indicators. Financial volatility has increased and stock indexes have fallen. In the face of the lower global demand, export prices of raw materials have fallen, affecting the terms of trade for producing countries. Workers’ remittances have declined due to the increase of unemployment in developed countries. This crisis has also generated a strong reduction of global trade of goods and services, and effects on the global value chains. Central banks around the world have reacted decisively and quickly with strong liquidity injections and significant cuts to their interest rates. By mid-July, such determined response had succeeded to revert much of the initial deterioration in global financial conditions. The stock exchanges stopped their fall, and showed significant recovery in several countries. Risk premia, which at the beginning of the crisis took an unusual leap, recorded substantial corrections. Something similar happened with the volatility indexes of global financial markets, which exhibited significant improvement. Flexibilization of confinement measures in some economies, broad global liquidity, and fiscal policy measures have also contributed to improve global external financial conditions, albeit with indicators that still do not return to their pre-Covid levels.