Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Demografic aging of population'

Background: Research on how rising human capital affects the consequences of population ageing rarely considers the fact that the human capital of the elderly population is composed in a specific way that is shaped by their earlier schooling and work experience. For an elderly population of a fixed size and age-sex composition, this entails that the higher its human capital, the greater the total amount of public pensions to be paid. Objective: The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the link between human capital and retiree benefits and its effect on population ageing from a demographic viewpoint. Methods: We construct an old age dependency ratio (OADR), in which each person, whether in the numerator or the denominator, is assigned the number of units corresponding to his/her level of human capital. Based on data for Italy, we study the dynamics of this human-capital-specific OADR with the help of multistate population projections to 2107. Results: Our results show that under specific conditions a constant or moderately growing human capital may aggravate the consequences of population ageing rather than alleviate them. Conclusions: With those findings, the authors would like to stimulate the debate on the search for demographic and/or socio-economic solutions to the challenges posed by population ageing.

Este trabalho busca compreender e analisar a dinâmica demográfica da cidade de Porto Alegre-RS, conjugada à dinâmica da produção imobiliária, a fim de contribuir com subsídios para o planejamento de políticas públicas. O aumento do contingente idoso, a redução do índice de fecundidade, o baixo crescimento populacional, as desigualdades socioespaciais nas áreas centrais e periféricas da cidade retratam, na atualidade, a produção do espaço urbano. A metodologia adotada para este estudo consistiu em três etapas: a primeira corresponde ao levantamento bibliográfico, cartográfico e de dados dos censos demográficos de 2000 e 2010, dos censos imobiliários levantados pelo Sinduscon e dos relatórios anuais levantados e organizados pelo Secovi-RS; a segunda parte, na elaboração de produtos cartográficos através dos materiais obtidos, os quais foram analisados e organizados para que os objetivos da pesquisa fossem alcançados. Por último, a elaboração e a interpretação dos resultados, através da sistematização dos dados obtidos e produzidos durante a realização do trabalho. Fez parte deste estudo, também, avaliar os empreendimentos imobiliários destinados à alta renda e baixa renda. Através dos Censos Imobiliários do SINDUSCON, pudemos identificar os principais eixos de valorização imobiliária, destacando-se os perfis populacionais. Da mesma forma, o levantamento dos empreendimentos vinculados ao Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida permitiu, através da análise espacial, identificar o vetor de expansão para a zona sul. Dessa maneira, conseguimos entender o ordenamento territorial da cidade, como um espaço urbano aparentemente fragmentado e segregado, pautado pela valorização das áreas centrais e pela intensificação do processo de expansão da urbanização em direção à periferia. Através da espacialização do processo de envelhecimento populacional foi possível identificar e diferenciar os principais eixos de valorização imobiliária, caracterizando um processo de ocupação fragmentado, adicionado à fragmentação socioespacial da cidade.
This paper seeks to understand and analyze the demographic dynamics in the different districts of the city of Porto Alegre-RS, coupled to the dynamics of the housing production in order to provide insight into the implementation of public policies. The increase of the elderly quota, the reduction in the fertility rate, low population growth, socio-spatial inequalities in central and peripheral areas of the city portray, at present, the production of urban space. The methodology adopted for this study consisted of three stages: the first corresponds to the literature, cartographic and 2010 Census data; the second part for the preparation of cartographic products through materials obtained, which were analyzed and organized so that the research objectives were achieved. Finally, the drafting and interpretation of results, through the systematization of data and produced during the work. He was part of this study also assess the real estate projects aimed at high income. Through the Real Estate SINDUSCON Census, we identify the main areas of real estate valuation, highlighting the population profiles. Thus, we can understand the territorial organization of the city, as a seemingly fragmented and segregated city, marked by the appreciation of the central areas and intensification of the urban periphery process. Through the spatial distribution of population aging process can identify and differentiate the focus for real estate appreciation, featuring a fragmented occupation process, added to social and spatial fragmentation of the city.

China is growing old before it is growing affluent. This situation is not unique to China; at least three other countries are in the same situation. While some of these had family planning campaigns, none had a one-child policy which implies that one-child policy is not the direct cause of this predicament. While China’s working-age share of the population has peaked, any shortages of low-skill labor currently observed in China are primarily caused by the hukou system and its barriers to labor mobility. A reform of the hukou system would secure ample supplies of migrant labor even in the face of mildly declining working-age share of the population. The absence of reforms could mean the arrival of a policy-induced Lewis Turning Point, prompting a premature and potentially counterproductive reorientation of industry. China does not yet possess an advantage in capital and technology intensive production and thus risks falling into the middle-income trap if the reorientation of industry takes place too early. If the Lewis Point can be postponed and the current rate of capital stock growth can be maintained for another decade or two, China might be able to avoid the middle-income trap. Both China’s and Japan’s current pension systems are unsustainable and their PAYGO nature is detrimental to long-run economic growth, especially so for aging societies. It is possible for China to make the system sustainable in the long if reforms are implemented while the transition costs are manageable. Although China is aging, the pace will be relatively slow until 2030. It will still take many years before the country is as old as Japan is a present. A low debt-to-GDP ratio also offers China more flexibility than Japan currently enjoys.
published_or_final_version
China Development Studies
Master
Master of Arts in China Development Studies

On the basis of a complex demographic analysis the thesis defines the areas in South Bohemia, where is apparent a specific development of demographic indicators and tries to find the main causes and consequences of these differences. From the perspective of the demographic indicators state the position of the South Bohemian Region is compared with other regions in the Czech Republic. On the basis of the demographic analysis is created a SWOT analysis of demographic trends of the South Bohemia population. In the final section there are explored impacts of demographic trends on the provision of social services for elderly and impacts on education and medical system in response to changes in the demographic structure of the population of the South Bohemia Region.

The issue of an aging population, pension systems and pension themselves, are currently very actual, interesting and socially topics discussed. In my diploma thesis on simulation models of pension insurance due to demographic development in the CR I used simulation experiments, including those based primarily on the Monte Carlo method, tackling issues and negatives surrounding pension insurance with state contribution, which, as one of the financial products market, is the second pillar of pension system in the Czech Republic. Pension scheme of pension insurekce with state contibution gives participants the advantages and benefits in the form of state subsidy, the possibility of reducing the income tax base on the part of the contributions paid, proceeds from fund management and the possibility of contributions from the employer. On the other hand, play an important role, weaknesses and shortcomings of this system. Again, the most important may be considered inseparateness fund's assets from an estate participants, inappropriately designed state contribution, the high average age of participants and relatively low rate of return on fund management. Negatives mentioned above were reflected in the simulation experiments, when the linear state contribution was designed and was considered for the new system of pension saving in combination with a linear state contribution, which appears to be a more appropriate and beneficial for both participants on the one hand, and the state (impact on public spendings) on the other.

This diploma thesis focuses on the analysis of demographic indicators and their development for the member states of the current European Union. The work is thematically divided into four chapters. The first chapter is mostly theoretically defined, for the purpose of explanation of all basic concepts. The second chapter shows us where Europe currently stands in terms of demographics. The third chapter is focused on defining the consequences of natural movement. The last chapter offers an analysis of a survey, in which total of 453 respondents from ten countries from allover Europe have participaded. There is no doubt, that the aging of population will have extensive social and economic soconsequences for Europe. On the other hand, we musn't forget that it is also an indicator of social and economic development, and therefore we should not be limited to perceive it only in a negative way.

This dissertation studies the impact and consequences of possible retirement plan reforms on subjects in the Czech Republic. The first part focuses on classification of pension systems and fundamentals of the Czech pension system. Second part summarizes major aspects of the retirement plan reform. Changes in the pension system in the process of ageing of the population are highlighted in this section. Following is the fundamental part of the dissertation that will point out possible consequences of the retirement plan reform for the Czech Republic. The conclusion of the dissertation aims to discuss needs of all parties participating on the retirement plan reform and outline an optimal reform plan. This is the conflict point of the interest of the public and those of the government. However, it is a government's responsibily to act on behalf of the citizens and that is the paramount factor of the reform.

Olfactory function is affected by demographic, cognitive, and genetic factors. In the present thesis, three empirical studies investigated individual differences in olfactory ability. Study I explored demographic and cognitive correlates in common olfactory tasks; odor detection, odor discrimination, and odor identification. The results indicated that old age influenced performance negatively in all tasks, and that semantic memory proficiency and executive functioning were related to odor discrimination and odor identification performance. No cognitive influence was observed for measurements of olfactory threshold. Using population-based data, Study II investigated a potential influence of the ApoE gene on olfactory identification after controlling for health status, semantic memory, and preclinical and clinical dementia. The main finding was that the ApoE- ɛ4 allele interacted with age, such that older ɛ4-carriers had an impaired odor identification performance relative to older non-carriers. Importantly, the negative ApoE- ɛ4 effect on olfactory proficiency was independent of clinical dementia conversion within five years. Study III investigated the effects of the BDNF val66met polymorphism on olfactory change over a five-year interval, in a community dwelling sample of young and old age cohorts. The results showed that age-related decline in olfactory identification was influenced by the BDNF val66met. In middle-aged subjects, no effect of BDNF val66met was observed although older val homozygote carriers showed a selectively larger olfactory decline than the older met carriers. Overall, results suggest that the relative influence of demographic and cognitive factors vary across different olfactory tasks and that two genes (ApoE and BDNF) impact age-related deficits in odor identification. Potential theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed as well as potential limitations of association studies in genomics research.

The aim of this Master's thesis is to describe the past and future demographic development of selected EU countries. The second aim is to utilize methods for multicriteria evaluation of alternatives in the demography. The last aim is to describe methods used to extrapolate mortality curves. The theoretical part describes demographic indicators, methods used to extrapolate mortality curves and computational processes for methods for multicriteria evaluation of alternatives. The practical part includes the computation of demographic indicators and describes the progress of the indicators in the future. The methods for multicriteria evaluation of alternatives are used for ranking selected EU countries according to the demographic indicators. The last part of the thesis includes the application of methods used for extrapolating mortality curves and compares the achieved results with the actual progress.

Public transit, an important mobility service for many, has incurred ridership decline in the U.S. for the past three years. In 2014, U.S. transit ridership was 10.74 billion unlinked passenger trips. In 2015, total ridership was 1.0 percent fewer, and the 2016 decrease was 2.2 percent from 2015. The consistent abandonment of transit in the U.S. does not seem to be ending. In 2017, ridership predicted from year-to-date data is 2.4 percent less than 2016. Furthermore, per capita ridership has decreased 17 percent since 1980. Both the short-term ridership trend and long-term per capita ridership trend is concerning given the increased spending and service provision during the same periods. In seeking to understand the many factors that influence transit ridership trends, it is important to analyze each so that policymakers and practitioners can respond and position transit accordingly. Numerous demographic and economic phenomena help explain this decline in transit use. This research focuses on five of these considerations – age, vehicle availability, telecommuting, fuel price, and geographical distribution of the population.

Chapter 1: A Population Aging Analysis for Canada Using the National Transfer Accounts Approach: This analysis develops a new data set for Canada using an accounting methodology called National Transfer Accounts (NTA). NTA permits building an accounting system that introduces age into national accounts. NTA is consistent with the conventional national accounts and allows the estimation of lifecycle patterns for labour income and consumption from private and public sources. It also allows the calculation of per capita and aggregate lifecycle deficits (LCD) or surpluses (LCS) in an economy. In this chapter we calculate Canada’s per capita and aggregate LCD for 2006. Using demographic projections for the next five decades, we present the aggregate LCD in Canada for the period 2006 to 2056 assuming a constant per capital LCD during this time horizon. The projection results show that labour income needs to increase rapidly or consumption needs to be cut significantly to compensate for the pressure on the aggregate lifecycle deficit as a result of population aging. Chapter 2: An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-dependent Rates of Time Preference: This analysis develops a methodology to introduce an age-dependent rate of time preference to calibrate an OLG-CGE model with per capita age profile consumption path derived from the NTA framework of Chapter 1. The results show that the economic impact from an aging population will be significant. The living standard will decline by 15% from the present to 2050 and decline by 20% by the year 2105. To reduce such a decline, the Canadian government may introduce policies that could encourage labour force participation. We analyze the impact of: a) an increase in the general labour force participation rate for age 20 to 64; b) an increase in the labour force participation rate for workers aged 50 to 64; c) late retirement. Our results suggest that maintaining the current standard of living will be extremely difficult after 2026. Nevertheless, this would help reduce the economic pressure from population aging. Chapter 3: 9/11 Security Measures and North American Security Perimeter: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: The objective of this analysis is to assess the impact of the North American Security Perimeter (NASP) on both the Canadian and the U.S. economies. The NASP is a change in Canada-U.S. security paradigm that would allow the liberalization of the post 9/11 security measures at the Canada-U.S. border. This study applies a multi-sector and multi-region general equilibrium model together with econometric analysis. After simulating the NASP, Canada’s capital market was found to become more attractive. Under the NASP, the welfare of Canada is estimated to increase by $19 billion or 1.8% of GDP, and that of the U.S. is estimated to increase by $32 billion or 0.3% of GDP.

Today, it is a very crucial problem that many European countries are encountering demographic challenges stemming from the population decline and aging and according to many studies and future projections, this demographic trend will reach more critical levels for the next 50 years. The most prominent impact of this demographic situation will be on social security systems that the functioning and sustainability of pension and health care systems will be severely damaged with regard to the rapidly increasing number of elderly and the decline in number of young labor force resulting from the low births rates all over Europe. In this context, labor migration that received significant attention, has risen up to the agenda of Europe to serve as a policy option to mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic challenges. Taking its impetus from the mentioned demographic problem, this thesis aims to analyze the discussions over labor migration as a foreseen policy option to compensate the shortage of labor force in Europe. It also intents to bring relevant data and current debates together to generate a ground in order to open this critical issue to discussion and to elaborate the feasibility of labor migration need for Europe. In this regard, the thesis scrutinizes the reactions of European states regarding their reluctance to open their borders again for &ldquo
mass influx&rdquo
and examines briefly the other preferred and enforced policies that exclude migration option, such as aiming to increase fertility rates, ameliorate social security systems or encourage the native labor force participation. By taking all these into account, this thesis aspires to attract attention to this urgent problem and evaluates the labor migration need in Europe by presenting the relevant reactions and appraisals shaping the migration policies both at the nation state and EU level. Finally, this thesis attempts to contribute to the literature in terms of generating a base for further intensified discussions and studies which constitutes a significant need in the context of interaction between demography and migration in Europe.

The thesis is dealing with the older workers in the labour market. The aim of this thesis is to analyse and evaluate the situation of the older workers in the labour market in the Czech Republic, especially in the years 2000 and 2005-2015, or even in 2015, with the focus on the indicators of the labour market, on the position of the older workers in this market according to selected aspects, and on the instruments affecting and encouraging these workers in the labour market. The thesis consists of the theoretical and the practical part. The theoretical part defines the problem of the demographic aging population, because this process is one of the reasons, why it is necessary to pay attention to the older workers in the labour market. This theoretical part is also dealing with the employment, unemployment, employment policy and strategic documents in relation to the older workers. The practical part begins with the demographic development in the Czech Republic, the following chapters are dealing with the analysis of the labour market indicators, instruments to support the older workers in the labour market and the comparison of the Czech Republic and EU states.

Canada’s aging population is expected to have an impact on all public institutions; for public libraries, the emergence of a large, multi-generational user group of older adults challenges the current paradigm of services to seniors. This thesis examines a subset of this user group: baby boomer library patrons who are in a caring relationship with elders. It investigates how these patrons interact with the public library both for themselves, and as carers, in order to reveal library-related issues particular to this growing segment of the population. The study takes place within a conceptual framework derived from the ethic of care, and from emerging theories of library-as-place rooted in the fields of human geography and sociology. Using a qualitative instrumental case study method, long form interviews were conducted with respondents recruited through theoretical sampling extended by snowball sampling. While not generalizable, findings suggest that while these baby boomer respondents value their libraries deeply, there is potential to create services and practices more attuned to the needs of older adults who are in relationships with elders.

U radu se razmatraju demografski problemi regije Hercegovine s posebnim osvrtom na Zapadnohercegovačku županiju te njihov uticaj na morfološko-funkcionalne promene naselja (gradova s pripadajućim naseljenim mestima) u pedesetogodišnjem   vremenskom periodu,  s naglaskom za vremenski period od  1961.  do 2011. godine.  Područje koje se analizira u ovome radu odnosi se na područje koje je funkcionalno vezano za Zapadnohercegovačku županiju, jednu od deset kantona/županija u FBiH.  Proučavani prostor obuhvata 100 naseljenih mesta (četiri gradska naselja). U radu se analizira demografski razvitak, te međusobna povezanost demografskog i socio-ekonomskog razvitka naselja na području Zapadnohercegovačke županije te funkcionalno-morfološke promene naselja. Zapadnohercegovačka županija tradicionalno je emigracijsko područje koje je već decenijama zahvaćeno procesom depopulacije. Šire je područje značajnije počelo   izumirati nakon Drugog svetskog rata, dok su  gradski prostor i njegova okolina, inače centri imigracija, stvarali područja i žarišta ekonomskog i opšteg razvitka Zapadnohercegovačke županije. Depopulaciju je u  naseljenim mestima planinskog  dela Županije (brdski prostori) pratilo napuštanje tradicionalnih privrednih aktivnosti (u prvom redu zemljoradnje  i stočarstva), došlo je do pojave socijalnog pustošenja, promena u krajoliku te izumiranja pojedinih naselja. Najznačajniji uticaj imali su znatno iseljavanje  stanovništva u drugoj polovini 20. veka, direktne i indirektne posledice dvaju svetskih ratova, zatim različite epidemije, agrarna reforma, ekonomske krize koje su se u nekoliko navrata javljale tokom 20. veka. Tome su    pridoneli i ostali faktori, kao što su ekonomska emigracija od sredine šezdesetih godina 20. veka, urbanizacija, industrijalizacija te snažan razvitak središnjih i prigradskih  naselja. Deagrarizacija i deruralizacija, tranzicija nataliteta, rat na području Bosne i Hercegovine u prvoj polovini devedesetih godina 20. veka, te neprimerena populaciona politika,  ostavile su traga na ovim područjima.  S obzirom na dominantne demografske trendove u Županiji može se pretpostaviti da će reprodukcija, odnosno obnavljanje radne snage u budućnosti biti smanjeno. Naime, na navedenu će činjenicu uticati smanjenje stope prirodnog kretanja stanovništva prisutno na području  Zapadnohercegovačke županije  već nekoliko decenija, što znači da će se smanjenje broja mladih stanovnika negativno odraziti na obim radne snage. Depopulacija ima negativne posledice na funkcije naselja te na morfologiju naselja. U pojedinim naseljima je došlo do promene u njihovoj strukturi i obliku osnove naselja, a gotovo sva naselja u Županiji imaju promene u fizionomiji.
This paper discusses the demographic problems of the region Herzegovina with special reference to the West Herzegovina County and their impact on the morphological and functional changes of settlements (cities with the belonging populated areas) in fifty years time, with particular emphasis on the period from 1961 to 2011. The area that is analyzed in this paper refers to the area that is functionally related to the West Herzegovina County, one of ten cantons/counties in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The studied area covers 100 settlements (four  urban settlements). The paper analyzes the demographic development andinterconnection of demographic and socio  -economic development of settlements  in theWest  Herzegovina  County and functional and morphological changes of settlements.West Herzegovina County  is a traditional  emigration area that has been affected by the process of depopulation for decades. Wider area began depopulating after World  War II, while the urban area and its surroundings,  which arein fact  immigration centers, were creating areas and foci of economic and general development of West Herzegovina County. Depopulation in settled places of mountainous part of the County (mountain areas)  was followed by the abandonment of traditional economic activities (primarily agriculture and animal husbandry). There  was  considerable social fallow as well as changes in the landscape and the extinction of some settlements. The emigration in the second half of the 20th century, the direct and indirect consequences of the two world wars, then various epidemics, agrarian reform,  economic crises that have occurred on several occasions during the 20th century had  the most significant influence on the depopulation in this area. Some  other factors, such as the economic emigration from the mid-sixties of the 20th century, urbanization, industrialization and a strong development of central and suburban areas, contributed to this as well. Deagrarization and deruralization, fertility transition, the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the first half of the nineties of the 20th  century and inadequate population policy made their mark in this area. Concerning the dominant demographic trends in the County it can be assumed that the  reproduction or recovery of the  labor force in the future will be reduced. Namely, this fact will be  affected by  reduction in the rate of natural population  growth that has been  present in the area of  West County for several decades, which means that the reduction in the  number of young   people has  a negative impact on the volume of the  labor force.Depopulation has negative effects on the function of the village and the morphology of settlements. In some villages there is a change in their structure and form of the basics of the village, and almost all the villages in the County have a change in the  physiognomy. The concentration of population and economic activities in urban and suburban area had also influence on the  landscape change. Demographic processes, that have occurred in West County, affected the socio  -  economic,physiognomic and functional transformation of urban neighborhoods and some parts of the County.

Cette recherche se propose d’étudier l’impact du vieillissement futur de la population algérienne sur l’équilibre financier du système des retraites et les dépenses de santé. Après une période de croissance rapide de la population, l’Algérie est entrée dans une phase de vieillissement démographique. Cette dernière a marqué la pyramide des âges pour la premièrefois en 1998, avec une modification importante de la structure par âge confirmée par le dernier recensement de 2008. En Algérie, comme l’a été la baisse de la fécondité, le vieillissement de la population, dans les deux à trois décennies à venir, devrait suivre un rythme rapide, voire extrêmement rapide, comparé à celui observé dans les pays développés. Ce phénomène aura des conséquences dans beaucoup de domaines ; notamment au niveau du financement des retraites, et de la maîtrise des dépenses de santé. Dans les deux à trois décennies à venir les dépenses de retraites et de santé devraient connaître une croissance importante sous l’effet du vieillissement. Il incombe aux pouvoirs publics de s’y préparer et de s’y adapter afin de relever le défi qu’imposera le vieillissement futur de la population algérienne afin de garantir l’équilibre financier et la pérennité des deux systèmes, à savoir celui des retraites et de la santé
The research aims to study the impact of future aging of the Algerian population on the financial balance of the pension system and health expenditure. After a period of rapid demographic growth, Algeria entered a phase of population aging. This was noticed on the age-sex pyramid for the first time in 1998, with a significant change in the age structure. Thischange was confirmed by the last census in 2008. In Algeria, as for fertility, aging is likely to follow a rapid or extremely rapid pace, within two to three decades, compared with observed experiences in developed countries. This will imply consequences in many areas including in pensions’ funding and health expenditure control. Within two to three decades, the pension and health spending will grow significantly as a result of aging. The government has to face the challenge of the future burden of aging of the Algerian population and to ensure the financial stability and sustainability of both systems, namely pensions and health

O objetivo geral é analisar os efeitos da dinâmica demográfica e do crescimento econômico sobre a sustentabilidade da Seguridade Social no Brasil. No primeiro dos três ensaios, é analisado o impacto do risco de longevidade na previdência complementar fechada, bem como as possíveis consequências sociais e econômicas do envelhecimento populacional. O risco de longevidade pode ser absorvido pela Patrocinadora, transferido para o participante ou transferido para o mercado, e as vantagens e desvantagens de cada uma dessas estratégias são discutidas. No segundo, ensaio a sustentabilidade da Previdência Social no século XXI é analisada sob a ótica da dinâmica demográfica e do crescimento da produtividade. Argumenta-se que a sustentabilidade não depende de superávits contábeis, mas da manutenção da trajetória temporal do custo dentro da capacidade de financiamento do Governo. Por meio de um modelo de simulações, são criadas 440 trajetórias de custo para os benefícios de Aposentadoria por Tempo de Contribuição, Aposentadoria por Idade, Aposentadoria por Invalidez, Pensão por Morte e o benefício de prestação continuada de Assistência Social ao Idoso, entre 2012 e 2100. As simulações são analisadas quanto aos efeitos que as mudanças demográficas, de crescimento da produtividade, de condições de elegibilidade e das condições de reajustes dos benefícios têm sobre a trajetória de custo. O terceiro ensaio utiliza os mesmos cenários simulados, benefícios e horizonte temporal do segundo ensaio, mas seu foco de análise é a trajetória de contribuição das coortes de trabalhadores, expressa como percentual da renda per capita. São simuladas, ao todo, 1.800 trajetórias de contribuição. Conclui-se que, sob taxas de crescimento da produtividade próximas à média histórica do período 1900/2010 e com o envelhecimento populacional projetado para as próximas décadas, as condições atuais de elegibilidade e de reajuste dos benefícios são insustentáveis. Os resultados conjuntos dos três ensaios apontam para a inevitabilidade do envelhecimento populacional brasileiro e para a necessidade de que a Seguridade Social e se adapte a esse fenômeno.
The overall objective is to analyze the effects of demographic dynamics and economic growth on the sustainability of Social Security in Brazil. In the first of the three papers I analyze the effect of longevity risk on pension funds, as well as the possible social and economic consequences of population aging. Longevity risk can be absorbed by the pension fund, transferred to the participant or transferred to the market and the advantages and disadvantages of each of these strategies are discussed. In the second paper the sustainability of Social Security in the XXI century is analyzed from the perspective of population dynamics and productivity growth. It is argued that sustainability does not follow from accounting superavits, but from maintaining the temporal trajectory of the cost within the capacity of government funding. Through model simulations, 440 cost trajectories are created for three retirement benefits, a survivor’s benefit and a means-tested benefit intended to support the elderly. The cost trajectories run from 2012 to 2100. The effects of demographic changes, productivity growth, eligibility conditions and the rules for raising the amount paid by each benefit are analyzed. The third paper uses the same simulated scenarios, benefits and time horizon of the second paper, but the focus of analysis now is the contribution trajectories of cohorts of workers, expressed as a percentage of income per capita. In total, 1,800 trajectories of contribution were simulated. We conclude that if the productivity growth rate keeps close to the historical average of the 1900/2010 period, the projected population aging in the coming decades will render the current regulatory framework of the benefits unsustainable. The combined results of the three papers point to the inevitability of the Brazilian population aging and the need to have a Social Security system adapted to these coming changes.

Population ageing is one of the most important current problems in developed countries. The goal of my work is the analysis of economic and social problems occasioned by population ageing, population prognosis and the possibility of compensation a population loss and changes in age structure through replacement migration. This is all in the Czech Republic. For my work I will use readily available information databases, mainly the database provided by Czech Statistical Office and the databases of relevant ministries in the Czech Republic. At first I will make demographic predictions using a component method without migration and then I will use replacement migration to compensate a population loss and changes in selected demoeconomic characteristics. The contribution of my work is in the concretization of methodology for calculating the replacement migration and in the results obtained from this study, which will show feasibility of this concept in practice. Last but not least I will look for solutions to the adverse economic impact of population ageing. In my study at first I will explain the concept of an ageing population and analyze past demographic trends in the Czech Republic. The entire chapter I will attend to migration and migration policy. Then I will focus on demographic forecast and especially replacement migration. At the end of my work I will analyze the economic impacts of an ageing population and the possibilities for their solution.

In recent decades, the fact of an aging population has become one of the most discussed phenomena in all economically developed countries. Its main consequence is the increasing number of people relying on the assistance of another person. The goal of this thesis is to provide quantitative estimation and suggestions of the possible future need for social services for the elderly within the Czech Republic as such and also with the reference to the evolution of the situation in individual regions of the country. The introductory chapter deals with the demographic development of population in the Czech Republic and in all its regions individually, on the basis of which an obvious and steady trend of population aging is confirmed in the past and future years. The second chapter focuses on the characteristic of regional facilities in selected social services as well as on the costs and financing of such services. On the grounds of findings from the previous chapter, the final chapter is dedicated to the estimation of the future evolution of the care recipients in the senior age groups in all regions in the Czech Republic. All this consistently on the basis of the projection of the evolution of the population until the year 2050 and projections of the structure of the beneficiaries of care allowance by level of the dependence in the year 2010. The result of the analysis indicates that the existing capacity of social services for elderly will not be sufficient due to the trend of aging population. With regard to that fact, some possible measures, that could be a future source of a solution of this unfavorable situation, are suggested in the conclusion of this thesis.

The majority of local areas in the UK are faced with an ageing population. Popular retirement destinations in coastal and more rural areas are particularly affected. The thesis aims to find out how local areas strategically tackle these demographic shifts. The British government has issued strategic guidance for local areas, but as yet little is known about how actual responses look. The literature has largely focused on good practice compilations. Consequently, the thesis attempts to analyse in depth local areas’ experiences in planning for an ageing population. The main research question is: How do local actors in the UK plan for population ageing? A grounded theory approach has been chosen to develop theoretical concepts from empirical data. Local governance and collective learning are used as sensitising concepts, i.e. wider theoretical perspectives. Due to the state of research and the aim to gather detailed knowledge regarding the planning for an ageing population in local areas, a qualitative research design has been chosen. More precisely, it is a multiple case study design, covering the three heterogeneous cases North Tyneside, Poole and Wealden. Empirical data has been assembled from qualitative interviews with local experts and documents such as local strategies or minutes of meetings. The results are threefold. Firstly, local governance arrangements are analysed. This covers the identification of involved actors, their action orientations and interactions. As approaches in planning for an ageing population differ across organisations, a typology of individual actors is developed. Moreover, it is observed that and analysed how traditional hierarchical steering by public bodies is complemented by more network-like forms of governance, for example multi-organisational older people’s partnerships. Secondly, local learning processes in planning for an ageing population are reconstructed. Four phases are differentiated: setting the agenda for the topic of ageing and older people followed by building up knowledge on the subject and collective learning in a narrower sense and, finally, strategy-making. Interrelations between governance arrangements and collective learning are analysed, particularly with respect to different forms of learning in different types of older people’s partnerships. Finally, central challenges and perspectives arising from the analysis of governance arrangements and learning processes are discussed. On the one hand, these pertain to the cross-cutting nature of ageing, on the other hand they are due to the ambivalent influence from national government on local areas. Ageing affects various spheres of local steering activity. Among the main implications for local areas in the UK are the continuous search for responsibility and the struggle to broaden the agenda beyond health and care. This has led to experimenting with governance structures, intensifying involvement of older people and developing inter-agency older people strategies and others as catalysts for further development. The strong influence from central government on local steering advances local reactions to ageing but provokes superficial and unsustainable answers at the same time. Overall, the thesis provides in-depth empirical knowledge on local planning for an ageing population. The theoretical lenses local governance and collective learning have been used to generalise from the practical experiences in the three case study areas. The thesis concludes with recommendations for practitioners locally and at the national level. These refer inter alia to local governance arrangements which come up to the issue’s cross-cuttingness and to national guidance and regulation which could facilitate their introduction or modification
Die Mehrzahl britischer Gemeinden ist mit einer alternden Bevölkerung konfrontiert. Küstengebiete und ländliche Räume sind besonders betroffen, da sie als Altersruhesitz bevorzugt werden. Ziel der Dissertation ist es, den strategischen Umgang der Gemeinden mit diesen demographischen Veränderungen zu beleuchten. Die britische Nationalregierung gibt den Gemeinden strategische Leitlinien vor, allerdings ist wenig darüber bekannt, wie die lokalen Ansätze tatsächlich aussehen. Bisher wurden vor allem Good Practice Sammlungen zum Thema veröffentlicht. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschäftigt sich die Dissertation detailliert mit der Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung in solchen Gemeinden, die in sich zwar mit der Bevölkerungsalterung beschäftigen, aber nicht als Good Practice klassifiziert werden können. Die Hauptforschungsfrage ist: Wie planen lokale Akteure für eine alternde Bevölkerung? Die Arbeit folgt einem Grounded Theory Ansatz, der darauf zielt, theoretische Konzepte aus den empirischen Daten zu entwickeln. Lokale Governance und kollektives Lernen dienen als sensibilisierende Konzepte, d.h. weitergefasste theoretische Perspektiven. Aufgrund des Forschungsstandes und des Ziels, detailliertes Wissen über die Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung zu gewinnen, folgt die Arbeit einem qualitativen Forschungsdesign. In den drei heterogenen Fallstudiengemeinden North Tyneside, Poole und Wealden wurden insbesondere qualitative Interviews mit lokalen Experten durchgeführt und Dokumente wie Strategiepapiere und Sitzungsprotokolle ausgewertet. Die Ergebnisse umfassen drei Themenbereiche. Zunächst werden lokale Governanceformen analysiert, was die Identifikation der beteiligten Akteure, ihre Handlungsorientierungen und Interaktionen umfasst. Da Ansätze zum Umgang mit der alternden Bevölkerung sich stark zwischen individuellen Akteuren unterscheiden, wurde auf dieser Basis eine Akteurstypologie erstellt. Darüber hinaus wird analysiert wie traditionale Steuerungsansätze staatlicher Akteure durch netzwerkartige Governanceformen ergänzt werden. Bedeutendstes Beispiel sind Arbeitsgruppen, in denen Akteure verschiedener Organisationen und Sektoren zusammenkommen, um Ansätze zum Umgang mit Senioren und der Bevölkerungsalterung zu entwickeln. Anschließend werden lokale Lernprozesse in der Planung für eine alternde Bevölkerung rekonstruiert. Dabei werden vier Phasen unterschieden: Agenda-Setting, Wissensaufbau, kollektives Lernen im engeren Sinne und Strategieerstellung. Es werden die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Governanceformen und kollektivem Lernen analysiert, insbesondere bezüglich der Lernformen in verschiedenen Typen von Arbeitsgruppen. Schließlich werden Herausforderungen und Perspektiven der Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung diskutiert, die aus der Analyse von Governanceformen und Lernprozessen hervorgehen. Einerseits beziehen diese sich auf den Querschnittcharakter des Themas Alterung, andererseits auf den ambivalenten Einfluss der Nationalregierung. Die Alterung betrifft verschiedenste Bereiche lokaler Steuerung. Dies führt zu einer anhaltenden Suche nach lokalen Verantwortungsträgern und zu Schwierigkeiten, die Agenda über Gesundheit und Pflege Älterer hinaus zu erweitern. Darüber hinaus hat der Querschnittcharakter ein Experimentieren mit Governanceformen angeregt, sowie die Schaffung von mehr Partizipationsmöglichkeiten für ältere Bürger und die Erstellung ressortübergreifender lokaler Alterungsstrategien. Die starken Eingriffe der Nationalregierung in lokale Steuerungstätigkeiten befördern einerseits die Auseinandersetzung mit der Alterung, andererseits führen sie auch zu oberflächlichen und wenig nachhaltigen Reaktionen. Insgesamt bietet die Dissertation detailliertes empirisches Wissen zur Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung. Die theoretischen Perspektiven lokale Governance und kollektives Lernen wurden genutzt um generalisierbare Ergebnisse aus den Erfahrungen in den drei Fallstudiengemeinden zu gewinnen. Abschließend werden Handlungsempfehlungen für Praktiker auf der lokalen und nationalen Ebene abgeleitet

The majority of local areas in the UK are faced with an ageing population. Popular retirement destinations in coastal and more rural areas are particularly affected. The thesis aims to find out how local areas strategically tackle these demographic shifts. The British government has issued strategic guidance for local areas, but as yet little is known about how actual responses look. The literature has largely focused on good practice compilations. Consequently, the thesis attempts to analyse in depth local areas’ experiences in planning for an ageing population. The main research question is: How do local actors in the UK plan for population ageing? A grounded theory approach has been chosen to develop theoretical concepts from empirical data. Local governance and collective learning are used as sensitising concepts, i.e. wider theoretical perspectives. Due to the state of research and the aim to gather detailed knowledge regarding the planning for an ageing population in local areas, a qualitative research design has been chosen. More precisely, it is a multiple case study design, covering the three heterogeneous cases North Tyneside, Poole and Wealden. Empirical data has been assembled from qualitative interviews with local experts and documents such as local strategies or minutes of meetings. The results are threefold. Firstly, local governance arrangements are analysed. This covers the identification of involved actors, their action orientations and interactions. As approaches in planning for an ageing population differ across organisations, a typology of individual actors is developed. Moreover, it is observed that and analysed how traditional hierarchical steering by public bodies is complemented by more network-like forms of governance, for example multi-organisational older people’s partnerships. Secondly, local learning processes in planning for an ageing population are reconstructed. Four phases are differentiated: setting the agenda for the topic of ageing and older people followed by building up knowledge on the subject and collective learning in a narrower sense and, finally, strategy-making. Interrelations between governance arrangements and collective learning are analysed, particularly with respect to different forms of learning in different types of older people’s partnerships. Finally, central challenges and perspectives arising from the analysis of governance arrangements and learning processes are discussed. On the one hand, these pertain to the cross-cutting nature of ageing, on the other hand they are due to the ambivalent influence from national government on local areas. Ageing affects various spheres of local steering activity. Among the main implications for local areas in the UK are the continuous search for responsibility and the struggle to broaden the agenda beyond health and care. This has led to experimenting with governance structures, intensifying involvement of older people and developing inter-agency older people strategies and others as catalysts for further development. The strong influence from central government on local steering advances local reactions to ageing but provokes superficial and unsustainable answers at the same time. Overall, the thesis provides in-depth empirical knowledge on local planning for an ageing population. The theoretical lenses local governance and collective learning have been used to generalise from the practical experiences in the three case study areas. The thesis concludes with recommendations for practitioners locally and at the national level. These refer inter alia to local governance arrangements which come up to the issue’s cross-cuttingness and to national guidance and regulation which could facilitate their introduction or modification.:Figures and tables.......................................................................................................11 List of Abbreviations...................................................................................................13 1 Introduction..........................................................................................................15 1.1 Rationale and aims of the research.............................................................15 1.2 Study design...............................................................................................18 1.3 Thesis structure...........................................................................................20 2 Planning for an ageing population – a UK-wide overview...................................23 2.1 The UK’s ageing population........................................................................23 2.2 Local governance and planning in transition................................................30 2.3 Reactions to ageing in the UK.....................................................................38 2.4 Questions raised.........................................................................................46 3 Conceptual framework.........................................................................................49 3.1 Local planning for an ageing population – linked to various research areas.............................................................................................49 3.2 Grounded theory perspective......................................................................53 3.3 Sensitising concepts....................................................................................55 3.3.1 Local governance..................................................................................56 3.3.2 Collective learning.................................................................................62 3.4 Presuppositions guiding the analysis............................................................67 4 Research design and methods..............................................................................71 4.1 Overall research design................................................................................71 4.2 Exploratory interviews – national level.........................................................74 4.3 Sampling procedures...................................................................................75 4.3.1 Sampling of case study areas.................................................................76 4.3.2 Sampling of interviewees.......................................................................79 4.4 Data collection............................................................................................81 4.5 Data analysis...............................................................................................83 5 The case study areas.............................................................................................89 5.1 North Tyneside............................................................................................90 5.1.1 North Tyneside in profile.......................................................................90 5.1.2 Planning for an ageing population in North Tyneside............................91 5.2 Poole...........................................................................................................94 5.2.1 Poole in profile......................................................................................94 5.2.2 Planning for an ageing population in Poole...........................................96 5.3 Wealden/East Sussex...................................................................................98 5.3.1 Wealden/East Sussex in profile..............................................................98 5.3.2 Planning for an ageing population in Wealden/East Sussex.................100 5.4 Summary and arising questions.................................................................103 6 Local governance and planning for an ageing population...................................105 6.1 The involved actors...................................................................................105 6.1.1 Actors belonging to the public sector..................................................106 6.1.2 Actors belonging to the private sector.................................................116 6.1.3 Actors belonging to the voluntary and community sector....................117 6.1.4 Connecting the sectors: The Local Strategic Partnership......................122 6.2 A typology of actors..................................................................................125 6.3 Governance arrangements: from working in silos to partnerships...............130 6.4 Summary...................................................................................................139 7 Local learning processes in planning for an ageing population..........................141 7.1 Setting the ageing agenda.........................................................................143 7.1.1 Awareness of the ageing population...................................................143 7.1.2 From awareness to action....................................................................146 7.2 Building up knowledge of ageing..............................................................149 7.2.1 Basing planning on (demographic) evidence.......................................149 7.2.2 Older people’s participation.................................................................155 7.2.3 Reacting to stimuli from national government.....................................158 7.3 Collective learning to plan for an ageing population..................................160 7.3.1 Collective learning in the local area.....................................................160 7.3.2 Learning in older people’s partnerships................................................164 7.4 Strategy-making for an ageing population.................................................171 7.4.1 Local strategies for dealing with population ageing.............................171 7.4.2 National trends reflected in local strategies..........................................178 7.4.3 The functions of strategies and strategy-making.................................187 7.5 Summary...................................................................................................191 8 Central challenges and perspectives in planning for an ageing population........193 8.1 The cross-cutting nature of ageing............................................................193 8.1.1 Searching for responsibility..................................................................194 8.1.2 Struggling to broaden the agenda.......................................................195 8.1.3 Experimenting with governance structures..........................................196 8.1.4 Involving older people.........................................................................197 8.1.5 Using strategies as catalysts................................................................198 8.2 Ambivalent influence from national government.......................................199 8.2.1 Influence via funding, instruments, targets and supervision.................200 8.2.2 Skipping the regional level..................................................................203 8.2.3 National government stimulating local areas to plan for an ageing population...............................................................................204 8.2.4 Local areas’ superficial reactions to national government influence......205 8.3 Regional and local challenges and perspectives..........................................207 9 Discussion of the results and implications..........................................................209 9.1 Summary of results....................................................................................209 9.2 Reflection of the results and the research design with respect to the state of research..............................................................................213 9.2.1 Discussion of the results......................................................................214 9.2.2 Discussion of the research design........................................................217 9.3 Open questions and need for further research...........................................219 9.4 Recommended action................................................................................221 9.5 Looking beyond the UK.............................................................................228 Literature..................................................................................................................231 Appendix..................................................................................................................251 A Interviewees and their positions..........................................................................251 B Exemplary e-mail to get into contact with potential interviewee and accompanying project outline..............................................................................252 C Interview guideline..............................................................................................254 D Transcription rules according to GAT 2 (modified)...............................................259
Die Mehrzahl britischer Gemeinden ist mit einer alternden Bevölkerung konfrontiert. Küstengebiete und ländliche Räume sind besonders betroffen, da sie als Altersruhesitz bevorzugt werden. Ziel der Dissertation ist es, den strategischen Umgang der Gemeinden mit diesen demographischen Veränderungen zu beleuchten. Die britische Nationalregierung gibt den Gemeinden strategische Leitlinien vor, allerdings ist wenig darüber bekannt, wie die lokalen Ansätze tatsächlich aussehen. Bisher wurden vor allem Good Practice Sammlungen zum Thema veröffentlicht. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschäftigt sich die Dissertation detailliert mit der Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung in solchen Gemeinden, die in sich zwar mit der Bevölkerungsalterung beschäftigen, aber nicht als Good Practice klassifiziert werden können. Die Hauptforschungsfrage ist: Wie planen lokale Akteure für eine alternde Bevölkerung? Die Arbeit folgt einem Grounded Theory Ansatz, der darauf zielt, theoretische Konzepte aus den empirischen Daten zu entwickeln. Lokale Governance und kollektives Lernen dienen als sensibilisierende Konzepte, d.h. weitergefasste theoretische Perspektiven. Aufgrund des Forschungsstandes und des Ziels, detailliertes Wissen über die Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung zu gewinnen, folgt die Arbeit einem qualitativen Forschungsdesign. In den drei heterogenen Fallstudiengemeinden North Tyneside, Poole und Wealden wurden insbesondere qualitative Interviews mit lokalen Experten durchgeführt und Dokumente wie Strategiepapiere und Sitzungsprotokolle ausgewertet. Die Ergebnisse umfassen drei Themenbereiche. Zunächst werden lokale Governanceformen analysiert, was die Identifikation der beteiligten Akteure, ihre Handlungsorientierungen und Interaktionen umfasst. Da Ansätze zum Umgang mit der alternden Bevölkerung sich stark zwischen individuellen Akteuren unterscheiden, wurde auf dieser Basis eine Akteurstypologie erstellt. Darüber hinaus wird analysiert wie traditionale Steuerungsansätze staatlicher Akteure durch netzwerkartige Governanceformen ergänzt werden. Bedeutendstes Beispiel sind Arbeitsgruppen, in denen Akteure verschiedener Organisationen und Sektoren zusammenkommen, um Ansätze zum Umgang mit Senioren und der Bevölkerungsalterung zu entwickeln. Anschließend werden lokale Lernprozesse in der Planung für eine alternde Bevölkerung rekonstruiert. Dabei werden vier Phasen unterschieden: Agenda-Setting, Wissensaufbau, kollektives Lernen im engeren Sinne und Strategieerstellung. Es werden die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Governanceformen und kollektivem Lernen analysiert, insbesondere bezüglich der Lernformen in verschiedenen Typen von Arbeitsgruppen. Schließlich werden Herausforderungen und Perspektiven der Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung diskutiert, die aus der Analyse von Governanceformen und Lernprozessen hervorgehen. Einerseits beziehen diese sich auf den Querschnittcharakter des Themas Alterung, andererseits auf den ambivalenten Einfluss der Nationalregierung. Die Alterung betrifft verschiedenste Bereiche lokaler Steuerung. Dies führt zu einer anhaltenden Suche nach lokalen Verantwortungsträgern und zu Schwierigkeiten, die Agenda über Gesundheit und Pflege Älterer hinaus zu erweitern. Darüber hinaus hat der Querschnittcharakter ein Experimentieren mit Governanceformen angeregt, sowie die Schaffung von mehr Partizipationsmöglichkeiten für ältere Bürger und die Erstellung ressortübergreifender lokaler Alterungsstrategien. Die starken Eingriffe der Nationalregierung in lokale Steuerungstätigkeiten befördern einerseits die Auseinandersetzung mit der Alterung, andererseits führen sie auch zu oberflächlichen und wenig nachhaltigen Reaktionen. Insgesamt bietet die Dissertation detailliertes empirisches Wissen zur Stadtentwicklung für eine alternde Bevölkerung. Die theoretischen Perspektiven lokale Governance und kollektives Lernen wurden genutzt um generalisierbare Ergebnisse aus den Erfahrungen in den drei Fallstudiengemeinden zu gewinnen. Abschließend werden Handlungsempfehlungen für Praktiker auf der lokalen und nationalen Ebene abgeleitet.:Figures and tables.......................................................................................................11 List of Abbreviations...................................................................................................13 1 Introduction..........................................................................................................15 1.1 Rationale and aims of the research.............................................................15 1.2 Study design...............................................................................................18 1.3 Thesis structure...........................................................................................20 2 Planning for an ageing population – a UK-wide overview...................................23 2.1 The UK’s ageing population........................................................................23 2.2 Local governance and planning in transition................................................30 2.3 Reactions to ageing in the UK.....................................................................38 2.4 Questions raised.........................................................................................46 3 Conceptual framework.........................................................................................49 3.1 Local planning for an ageing population – linked to various research areas.............................................................................................49 3.2 Grounded theory perspective......................................................................53 3.3 Sensitising concepts....................................................................................55 3.3.1 Local governance..................................................................................56 3.3.2 Collective learning.................................................................................62 3.4 Presuppositions guiding the analysis............................................................67 4 Research design and methods..............................................................................71 4.1 Overall research design................................................................................71 4.2 Exploratory interviews – national level.........................................................74 4.3 Sampling procedures...................................................................................75 4.3.1 Sampling of case study areas.................................................................76 4.3.2 Sampling of interviewees.......................................................................79 4.4 Data collection............................................................................................81 4.5 Data analysis...............................................................................................83 5 The case study areas.............................................................................................89 5.1 North Tyneside............................................................................................90 5.1.1 North Tyneside in profile.......................................................................90 5.1.2 Planning for an ageing population in North Tyneside............................91 5.2 Poole...........................................................................................................94 5.2.1 Poole in profile......................................................................................94 5.2.2 Planning for an ageing population in Poole...........................................96 5.3 Wealden/East Sussex...................................................................................98 5.3.1 Wealden/East Sussex in profile..............................................................98 5.3.2 Planning for an ageing population in Wealden/East Sussex.................100 5.4 Summary and arising questions.................................................................103 6 Local governance and planning for an ageing population...................................105 6.1 The involved actors...................................................................................105 6.1.1 Actors belonging to the public sector..................................................106 6.1.2 Actors belonging to the private sector.................................................116 6.1.3 Actors belonging to the voluntary and community sector....................117 6.1.4 Connecting the sectors: The Local Strategic Partnership......................122 6.2 A typology of actors..................................................................................125 6.3 Governance arrangements: from working in silos to partnerships...............130 6.4 Summary...................................................................................................139 7 Local learning processes in planning for an ageing population..........................141 7.1 Setting the ageing agenda.........................................................................143 7.1.1 Awareness of the ageing population...................................................143 7.1.2 From awareness to action....................................................................146 7.2 Building up knowledge of ageing..............................................................149 7.2.1 Basing planning on (demographic) evidence.......................................149 7.2.2 Older people’s participation.................................................................155 7.2.3 Reacting to stimuli from national government.....................................158 7.3 Collective learning to plan for an ageing population..................................160 7.3.1 Collective learning in the local area.....................................................160 7.3.2 Learning in older people’s partnerships................................................164 7.4 Strategy-making for an ageing population.................................................171 7.4.1 Local strategies for dealing with population ageing.............................171 7.4.2 National trends reflected in local strategies..........................................178 7.4.3 The functions of strategies and strategy-making.................................187 7.5 Summary...................................................................................................191 8 Central challenges and perspectives in planning for an ageing population........193 8.1 The cross-cutting nature of ageing............................................................193 8.1.1 Searching for responsibility..................................................................194 8.1.2 Struggling to broaden the agenda.......................................................195 8.1.3 Experimenting with governance structures..........................................196 8.1.4 Involving older people.........................................................................197 8.1.5 Using strategies as catalysts................................................................198 8.2 Ambivalent influence from national government.......................................199 8.2.1 Influence via funding, instruments, targets and supervision.................200 8.2.2 Skipping the regional level..................................................................203 8.2.3 National government stimulating local areas to plan for an ageing population...............................................................................204 8.2.4 Local areas’ superficial reactions to national government influence......205 8.3 Regional and local challenges and perspectives..........................................207 9 Discussion of the results and implications..........................................................209 9.1 Summary of results....................................................................................209 9.2 Reflection of the results and the research design with respect to the state of research..............................................................................213 9.2.1 Discussion of the results......................................................................214 9.2.2 Discussion of the research design........................................................217 9.3 Open questions and need for further research...........................................219 9.4 Recommended action................................................................................221 9.5 Looking beyond the UK.............................................................................228 Literature..................................................................................................................231 Appendix..................................................................................................................251 A Interviewees and their positions..........................................................................251 B Exemplary e-mail to get into contact with potential interviewee and accompanying project outline..............................................................................252 C Interview guideline..............................................................................................254 D Transcription rules according to GAT 2 (modified)...............................................259

The ageing of population is the most marked demographic process, which is in progress in the most developed countries around the world (and in European Union too) and it will accompany us all of the 21st century. It is spoken negative about them. But it is a positive phenomenon, because it is consequence of economic and social development and therefore an indicator of the level of advancement of the country. The goal of this thesis is to give a comprehensive view of ageing of population issues, to describe demographic development of European Union, it's changes and trends and to find out causes of difference between individual countries. Thesis should analyse economic and societal impact of these changes, offer solution to negative effects and suggest measures, which should the countries take, too. Attention will be paid to Czech Republic too, because it is one of the countries, where will be the situation very serious.

La démographie des économies développées révèle un vieillissement rapide de leur population et ce processus s'est amorcé dans les pays émergents. Le vieillissement démographique est dû à trois phénomènes : le report de l'âge du premier enfant, la baisse de la fécondité et la hausse de l'espérance de vie. Ce phénomène entraîne des conséquences économiques importantes, notamment à travers l'élévation du ratio de dépendance défini comme le nombre des retraités rapporté à la population en âge de travailler. Cette thèse s'intéresse aux conséquences du vieillissement démographique sur le prix du capital ainsi qu'au financement des retraites face à la crise financière. Dans un premier chapitre, nous étudions l'effet de la dynamique de la structure démographique sur le prix du capital dans un modèle à générations imbriquées avec coût d'ajustement du capital. Les conclusions indiquent que le prix des actifs augmente puis diminue en fonction de l'évolution de la structure démographique. Le deuxième chapitre porte sur la performance d'un portefeuille de grande taille lors de tensions sur les marchés financiers. Grâce à la théorie des copules, nous développons une méthodologie qui permet d'analyser l'exposition d'un portefeuille aux différents risques de marché extrêmes. Le troisième chapitre aborde l'analyse de la sensibilité de la situation financière des fonds de pension aux risques de marché, en utilisant la méthodologie élaborée dans le chapitre précédent. Nous constatons que l'actif et le passif du bilan d'un fonds de pension sont vulnérables aux mouvements volatils des marchés financiers
Population of advanced economies is rapidly aging while emerging countries follow closely the same transformation. Population aging is due to three factors: delayed child-bearing, falling birth rates, and rising life expectancy. This process causes significant economic consequences, especially due to the rise in the dependency ratio that is defined as the number of retirees divided by the working age population. This thesis is particularly interested in the consequences of population aging on the price of capital as well as the pension funding under current financial crisis. In the first chapter, we study the effect of the dynamics of population structure on the price of capital in an overlapping generations model with capital adjustment costs. The results show that the asset prices increase and then decrease with changes in the demographic structure. The second chapter focuses on the performance of a large portfolio during turbulent periods in financial markets. Using the copula theory, we develop a methodology for analyzing the exposure of a portfolio to different extreme market risks. The third chapter covers the analysis of the sensitivity of the funding situation of a representative pension fund to market risks, by using the methodology developed in the second chapter. We find that both the asset and liability sides of pension fund's balance sheets are vulnerable to volatile movements in financial markets

Chapter 1: Interregional Transfers through Public Pension in Canada- In this chapter, I build a regional computable general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations (OLG) structure of the Canadian economy to analyze population aging dynamics and public pensions. Canada is divided into three regions: Atlantic, Quebec and Rest of Canada (ROC). The impact of population aging is investigated on each of three regions' pension systems. The results confirm that as a result of aging all regions are affected negatively if they choose to have an independent pension system. Under a joint pension system most of the pressure of the provision of the pension system is on the ROC. Atlantic region benefits the most from a joint pension plan as the implicit funds ow from ROC to Atlantic region. Quebec benefits from having its own program, but the benefits disappear slowly in future years. Chapter 2: Age-Variable Rate of Time Preference in CGE-OLG Model- Contrary to the mainstream studies in the area of intertemporal optimization that assume a constant rate of time preference over individuals' life cycles, in this chapter I propose a new approach to measure the rate of time preference by assuming that the rate of time preference evolves by age. I construct an overlapping generations model (OLG) and calibrate rate of time preference. The age-variable rate of time preference would permit to capture many other elements that affect the life cycle profile of consumption as observed in the data. The results show that rate of time preference exhibits three phases and is different for young versus old. Chapter 3: Computing Demographic Change Simulation under Constant and Age-variable Rate of Time Preference - This chapter simulates the impact of an aging population on various macroeconomic variables and calculates the cohort welfare as well as social welfare. The outcomes from simulations are dependent on the choice of rate of time preference as well as the structure of the model. The results in this chapter provide a new approach to determining the impact of aging population. The choice of a realistic rate of time preference, which allows its variability by age, affects the cohort welfare noticeably.

This master thesis deals with research of Subjective Quality of Life for population fifty years old or more, depending on the selected demographic, social and economic indicators. More and more people live to the older ages, and thus important question of living conditions and well being of this ageing population comes forward. General concept of Quality of Life of older people is described on wide theoretical scale with focus on the cause of the phenomenon, Demographic Ageing of populations. The Demographic Ageing is described not only on the theoretical level, but also in a quantitative way. There are specific fertility rates introduced according to an age of a mother while birth giving, or still increasing Life Expectancy at Birth for both males and females. To explore the dependencies of Subjective Quality of Life on selected indicators, there is a statistical model introduced. The input indicators come from the European panel data research Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Techniques used for analyzing the data are Analysis of variance for one single wave (held around year 2013) and Panel data analysis for all available waves (from 2004 to 2013). The results from both analyses for the Czech Republic are compared with results for selected countries, Germany, Sweden, Spain, Italy and Greece. From the SHARE data set can be read the following results. The variable Age significantly influences all included models for all selected countries, the similar influence can be observed for the Education. For almost all countries and models is proving of the significant influence of Gender to Subjective Quality of Life indefinite (we are not able to observe significant influence). Also the influence of the variable Living alone/with other people is not perfectly convincing. On the other hand, significantly observable categories are Unemployed and Permanently sick or disabled. The question of Quality of Life is related to all parts of population. While the number of older people in population increases, this question of the quality of their lives becomes more and more important. The way how to secure those needed, powerless and often vulnerable people in a decent way and with dignity is not easy.

Older adults are encountering harsh recovery after disasters, and compounding this problem is the lack of research on older adults' perceptions on disaster preparedness as aging affects the ability to react to emergency situations. To partially address that gap, the purpose of this general qualitative research study was to use Rotter's spectrum of locus of control theory to examine the level of preparation regarding disaster preparation of older adults who were living independently in single-family homes in a state affected by Hurricane Sandy. Data were collected through a qualitative survey distributed to adults aged 65 to 80-years (N=88) and publicly available documents from federal and state emergency management agencies. These data were inductively coded and subjected to a thematic analysis procedure. Findings identified 3 themes that consisted of (a) delayed acceptance, (b) defective instinct, and, (c) unexpected effects of disasters. This study contributes to social change by helping emergency management officials understand the deficiencies in preparedness by an aging population which may in turn improve the quality of life for older adults by stressing proper preparation for sheltering in place or evacuation in the event of a disaster.

Demographic change represents the defining trend in population development of the 21st century on a global, national, and regional level. Although some countries are yet to see its impacts, others, such as Germany, have already begun experiencing the effects of demographic change. Sub-replacement level fertility since the 1970s coupled with increases in life expectancy have slowed German population growth and cause pronounced shifts in the age composition. These changes are even more noticeable on a sub-national level, where, in the context of national-level demographic change, shrinking and ageing regions are no longer transitory and exceptional but a wide-spread and permanent phenomenon. Despite the relative predictability of these trends, there is little empirical research on the consequences of demographic change on regional socio-economic conditions. This thesis analyses demographic change using the case of Germany on a regional level and considers how changes in population size and age composition affect economic outcomes and their geographical patterns. It focuses on three aspects that are central to processes of regional economic development. First, it investigates the role of demographic change in the provision of public services, using the example of primary school closures in response to falling student numbers. Second, it studies the effect of population ageing on availability and composition of human capital in regional labour markets. Third, it examines the relationship between regional age structures and patterns of internal migration, testing for evidence whether the two trends may be mutually reinforcing. Using administrative and micro-data for 332 German district regions between 1996 and 2010, this thesis documents the current relevance of demographic change for socioeconomic conditions and emphasises its future role in shaping regional economic development in ageing and shrinking countries.

People in different subgroups age at different rates. Surveys containing biomarkers can be used to assess these subgroup differences. We illustrate this using hand-grip strength to produce an easily interpretable, physical-based measure that allows us to compare characteristic-based ages across educational subgroups in the United States. Hand-grip strength has been shown to be a good predictor of future mortality and morbidity, and therefore a useful indicator of population aging. Data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) were used. Two education subgroups were distinguished, those with less than a high school diploma and those with more education. Regressions on hand-grip strength were run for each sex and race using age and education, their interactions and other covariates as independent variables. Ages of identical mean hand-grip strength across education groups were compared for people in the age range 60 to 80. The hand-grip strength of 65 year old white males with less education was the equivalent to that of 69.6 (68.2, 70.9) year old white men with more education, indicating that the more educated men had aged more slowly. This is a constant characteristic age, as defined in the Sanderson and Scherbov article "The characteristics approach to the measurement of population aging" published 2013 in Population and Development Review. Sixty-five year old white females with less education had the same average hand-grip strength as 69.4 (68.2, 70.7) year old white women with more education. African-American women at ages 60 and 65 with more education also aged more slowly than their less educated counterparts. African American men with more education aged at about the same rate as those with less education. This paper expands the toolkit of those interested in population aging by showing how survey data can be used to measure the differential extent of aging across subpopulations.

The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the perceived severity of chronic tinnitus in a geriatric population increased, decreased, or remained constant with the passage of time. A questionnaire was designed to ascertain the subjects' perceived severity at time of onset and the perceived severity of their current tinnitus. The subjects were asked to rate their past and present tinnitus severity according to how much it bothered them. They were also asked questions pertaining to noise exposure history, hearing aid use, and tinnitus sound parameters for purposes of comparison with other groups previously studied.

The diploma thesis evaluates the capacity and financial availability of social housing for the elderly living in a town called Strakonice, comparing it to the demographic processes related to the age structure of this town. This thesis also introduces all social services relating to the ageing population of the Czech Republic and compares them with the demographic forecast process and the country's age structure. A similar approach is used when analyzing this reality in the town Strakonice. The secondary objective of this thesis is to detect all sorts of social services funding, considering the revenue and expenditure structure of elderly social housing in the Czech Republic and also in the town Strakonice. In the last part of this paper, there is an economic analysis of one residential social service, which is designed for seniors living in the town Strakonice.

Will the population of today's high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65- year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time, ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory phenomenon.

Abstract Despite the greater strategic importance and increasing activities in the Arctic as well as the increased attention paid by national governments, few attempts have been made to understand the on-going demographic changes from a pan-Arctic perspective. In particular, population aging or “silverization” is a demographic megatrend affecting regional societies and the economy which can exert profound social consequences in this most desolate and least populated region in the world. Although there are a few studies investigating aging in the Arctic countries, none have extended their research to the sub-national level. This thesis consists of an analysis of aging and possible rejuvenation trends in 23 Arctic sub-regions, and compares these trends to the national average of their eight respective countries. Two groups of indicators have been used to measure aging; these are based on “chronological” and “prospective” ages, the latter considers changes in life expectancy and improvements in population health. The study generated a large set of aging data for the period 1980/1990 to 2010 as well as the present day, utilizing the available baseline data. The discussion examined major trends in aging elucidating the interactions of conventional and prospective indicators, revealed the oldest and youngest territories, linkages between the Arctic and nationwide rates, the fastest and slowest regions that are aging (or in contrast, rejuvenating), sex and ethnic differences, and whether Northern Canada and Alaska, North Atlantic, Arctic Russia and Northern Fennoscandia are converging or diverging in terms of aging development. In addition, the interplay of causes of aging and other demographic conditions of Arctic territories was examined as well as the gaps in knowledge and prospects for future research. The international comparative evidence of the thesis can help the northern communities’ policy makers in planning changes that have to be made in order to adjust to an aging transition. It is clear that sustainable population development is the key to a viable Arctic region
Tiivistelmä Arktisella alueella tapahtuvaa väestörakenteen muutosta ja sen syitä on tutkittu vähän, vaikka alueen merkitys ja aktiviteetit ovat korostuneet valtioiden strategioissa. Erityisesti väestön ikääntyminen tai ”harmaantuminen” on yleinen demografinen suuntaus, joka vaikuttaa pohjoisten alueiden väestöön ja talouteen ja voi johtaa syvällisiin yhteiskunnallisiin seurauksiin tällä maailman harvaan asutuimmalla alueella. Ikääntymistä on tutkittu jonkin verran yksittäisissä maissa, mutta ei näiden maiden pohjoisissa osissa. Tässä väitöskirjatyössä analysoidaan ikääntymistä ja mahdollista nuorentumista kahdeksan arktisen maan 23 pohjoisella alueella ja näitä verrataan saman maan kansalliseen keskiarvoon. Ikääntymisen mittareina on käytetty kahta mittaustapaa perustuen joko ”kronologiseen” tai ”prospektiiviseen” ikään, joista jälkimmäinen huomioi muutokset odotettavissa olevassa eliniässä sekä väestön terveydentilan kohentumissa. Tutkimuksen tuloksena syntyi laaja ikääntymistä käsittelevä tietoaineisto vuosilta 1980/1990 vuoteen 2010/nykypäivään perustuen käytettävissä oleviin lähtöaineistoihin. Tässä työssä yksilöitiin ikääntymisen pääsuuntaukset ja vertailtiin perinteisten ja uusien indikaattoreiden tuottamia tuloksia. Lisäksi selvitettiin ikääntymisen kannalta väestöltään vanhimmat ja nuorimmat alueet, verraltiin arktisen alueen ja kansallisten lukujen välisiä yhteyksiä sekä esiteltiin nopeimmin ja hitaimmin ikääntyvät (tai nuorentuvat) alueet sekä sukupuoleen ja etnisyyteen liittyviä eroja. Tutkimus luo uutta tietoa Pohjois-Kanadan ja Alaskan, Pohjois-Atlantin alueen, Venäjän arktisen alueen sekä pohjoisen Fennoskandian väestöjen ikääntymiskehityksestä. Lisäksi väitöskirjatyö analysoi ikääntymiskehityksen ja muiden väestökehitykseen liittyvien olosuhteiden syitä arktisella alueella sekä tulevaisuuden tutkimustarpeita. Kansainvälinen vertailu voi auttaa valtioiden ja alueiden päättäjiä tekemään suunnitelmat, joilla pohjoiset yhteisöt voivat sopeutua ikääntymisen tuomiin haasteisiin. Kestävä väestökehitys on avain elinvoimaiseen arktiseen alueeseen

Thesis (M.A. in sociology)--Washington State University, December 2008.
Title from PDF title page (viewed on Dec. 31, 2008). "Department of Sociology." Includes bibliographical references (p. 40-45).

Major population shifts shape both economic and physical landscapes of nations because demographic and economic drivers are inextricably linked. This study follows a three essay approach focused on the impact of population aging on two broad categories, physical and economic development in the United States. Specifically, this dissertation investigates later life entrepreneurship, elder housing choices and the impact of aging on rural prosperity. It appears that age is a factor in later life labor force participation choices, with 61 to 70 year olds and those over 70 years of age exhibiting a greater tendency toward self-employment than their 50 to 60 year old counterparts. However, individuals over age 60 are more likely to retire than transition to self-employment. Still, economic developers should consider small business development programs that include even those ahead of the baby boomer cohort. Amongst recent mover households, age influences dwelling selection. Households headed by 50 to 69 year olds are more likely to move to single family dwellings of 1,000 to just under 3,000 square feet. Conversely, households headed by individuals aged 70 years or more, are more likely to select multi-family dwellings and in particular, smaller units (under 1,000 square feet). Thus, oldest individuals are more likely to relocate to the smallest, highest density units even after controlling for increased housing costs, shocks, income and children. These results suggest that older households are not homogenous in their housing preferences. As expected, population aging impacts rural prosperity. The effect is not significant for the proportion of the population aged 70 to 79 years. However, the greater the percentage of the population that is 50 to 59 years of old or 60 to 69 years old, the less likely a rural county is to be prosperous. Contrary to this finding, the greater the proportion of the population that is 80 years of age or older, the greater the likelihood of rural prosperity. It was originally hypothesized that rural areas may fall short of prosperity because of a mismatch between an aging labor force and the prevalence of physically demanding occupations - this is likely not the case.
Ph. D.

This article investigates agglomeration processes in aging societies by introducing an overlapping generation structure into a New Economic Geography model. Whether higher economic integration leads to spatial concentration of economic activity crucially hinges on the economies' demographic properties. While population aging as represented by declining birth rates strengthens agglomeration processes, declining mortality rates weaken them. This is due to the fact that we allow for nonconstant population size. In particular, we show that population growth acts as an important dispersion force that augments the distributional effects on agglomeration processes resulting from the turnover of generations. (author's abstract)
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Older adults present a special challenge to libraries offering computer training. Many of those seeking training have little, if any, prior experience with the concepts and skills necessary to use computers, yet their ability to learn those concepts and skills is hampered by the aging process. This article summarizes the factors in aging which most affect learning computer skills, and how those factors can be mitigated.

Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2008.
Thesis research directed by: Dept. of Government and Politics. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Esta tese estuda dois tópicos sobre a demanda do consumidor e o envelhecimento populacional usando dados do Brasil. Mas, em primeiro lugar, apresentamos um capítulo introdutório sobre a situação dos idosos no Brasil abordando aspectos como a transição demográfica, o perfil dos idosos brasileiros, as condições sócias demográficas deste segmento e, finalmente, as consequências e as tendências do envelhecimento da população no Brasil. A intenção deste capítulo é introduzir os problemas de pesquisa relacionados à população idosa que serão apresentados nos próximos capítulos. No primeiro ensaio, analisamos o nível de bem-estar dos idosos. Compreender esse tema é importante para a formulação de políticas públicas e de transferência de renda para os idosos, como o cálculo das taxas de pobreza, do seguro de vida e das pensões por morte. No entanto, este tema é pouco conhecido nos países em desenvolvimento e estimativas de economias ricas podem ter uma validade externa limitada em comparação àqueles países. Assim, essa aplicação torna-se relevante no contexto brasileiro, uma vez que a grande maioria dos idosos sobrevive de programas de transferência de renda, tais como pensões pós morte e aposentadoria. Os resultados indicaram que as preferências dos idosos no Brasil são muito similares por gênero e ambos são mais sensíveis às mudanças nas despesas e nos preços dos bens relacionados à saúde. Os resultados indicaram substanciais economias de escala e a participação do idoso aumentando à medida que as despesas totais cresciam. A escala da OCDE subestima a pobreza entre idosas em casais e superestima a pobreza entre idosos homens em casais. No caso das viúvas e dos viúvos, na maioria dos períodos, a escala da OCDE subestima as taxas de pobreza. Finalmente, encontramos que a queda no bem-estar material após a morte da esposa é bastante substancial para os idosos homens e o oposto foi observado para as idosas. O segundo ensaio compara os padrões de gastos de consumo e a demanda, medida por elasticidades preços e dispêndio, dos domicílios em que o idoso ou o adulto não-idoso são os responsáveis, levando em consideração os fatores socioeconômicos associados ao comportamento do consumidor. Nosso estudo reconhece que as diferenças entre as despesas dos idosos e adultos são importantes para estabelecer políticas públicas adequadas para ajudar os consumidores idosos. No decurso do processo de envelhecimento, os agregados familiares idosos desempenharão um papel crescente, mas o seu comportamento pode diferir substancialmente das pessoas mais jovens. Novamente, pouco se sabe sobre essa questão nos países em desenvolvimento, especialmente na América Latina e principalmente no Brasil. Os resultados sugerem que os domicílios brasileiros chefiados por idosos e adultos não idosos têm diferentes padrões de consumo. Os domicílios chefiados por adultos são mais sensíveis às mudanças nas despesas com produtos alimentares, enquanto os domicílios chefiados pelos idosos apresentavam maior sensibilidade para os cuidados da saúde. Variáveis demográficas, principalmente gênero, nível educacional e transferências governamentais, influenciam a demanda pela maioria dos bens em famílias chefiadas por idosos no Brasil. As transferências governamentais ajudam as famílias idosas a gastar mais em Habitação, Alimentação e Saúde. Em relação às variáveis de composição domiciliar, os domicílios formados apenas pelos idosos demandam menos Alimentos e mais Habitação; os domicílios compostos por idosos com crianças demandam mais produtos relacionados a vestuário e transporte, e menos produtos de higiene e habitação; e os domicílios compostos por idosos com parentes exigem menos produtos de cuidados de saúde. Juntos, os dois ensaios contribuem para uma melhor compreensão sobre o padrão do consumo, a demanda dos consumidores e o bem-estar dos idosos usando dados do Brasil, uma economia em desenvolvimento.
This thesis studies two topics on consumer demand and population aging using Brazilian data. We first present an introductory chapter about the situation of the elderly in Brazil addressing aspects such as the demographic transition, the profile of the Brazilian elderly, the socio-demographic conditions of this segment and, finally, the consequences and trends of population aging in Brazil. The intention of this introductory chapter is to guide the research problems related to the elderly population that will be presented in the next chapters. In the first essay, we analyze the level of well-being of the elderly people. Understanding such theme is important for the design of public policies and income transfer for the elderly, such as the calculation of poverty rates, life insurance and death pensions. However, little is known about this topic in developing countries and estimates from rich economies may have limited external validity to the developing world. Thus, this application becomes relevant in the Brazilian context, since the vast majority of the elderly survive from income transfer programs, such as death pensions and retirement. Results indicate that elderly individual’s consumer preferences in Brazil are very similar by gender and both are more sensitive to changes in expenditure and price for Health care. The results indicate substantial economies of scale and a husband’s share that is increasing in total expenditures. OECD scale underestimates poverty among elderly women in couples and overestimates poverty among elderly men in couples. In the case of widow and widowers, in most of the periods, OECD scale underestimates poverty rates. Finally, we find that the drop in material well-being following the wife’s death is rather substantial for men and the opposite was observed for women. The second essay compares consumption expenditure patterns and demand, measure by price and income elasticities, of the elderly and adult-headed households, taking into account socio- economic factors associated to consumer behavior. Our study recognizes that differences between expenditure of the elderly and the adults are important in order to establish appropriate public policies to help elderly consumers. In the course of the aging process, elderly households will play an increasing role, but their behavior might differ substantially from younger people. Again, little is known about this issue in developing countries, especially those in Latin America, and mainly in Brazil. The findings suggest that Brazilian elderly and adult-headed households have different consumption patterns. Adult-headed households were more sensitive to changes in expenditure for Food products, while households headed by the elderly showed more sensitivity for Health care. Demographic variables, mainly gender, education level and government transfers, influence the demand for most of the goods in Brazilian elderly headed households. Government transfers help elderly households to spend more on Housing and Health care. In relation to household composition variables, those formed only by the elderly demand less Food and more Housing; those households composed by the elderly with children demand more Clothing and Transportation products and less Habitation and Health care products; and those households composed by the elderly with relatives demand less Health care products. Together, the two essays contribute to a better understanding about consumer pattern, consumer demand and well-being of elderly using data from Brazil, a developing economy.

Over the past few decades, falling birth rates and increasing life expectancies have threatened the viability of social security programs all across the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In this dissertation, I attempt to shed some light on the extent of the crisis that the social security program in the United States (U.S.) currently faces, and I also recommend one possible reform policy. In the first essay, I provide an alternative estimate of the impact of population aging on the future social security benefits in the U.S., while accounting for the household-level and macroeconomic adjustments to population aging. Using a general equilibrium life-cycle consumption model with endogenous retirement and incomplete private annuity markets, I find that once these adjustments are accounted for, population aging in the U.S. is likely to cause a significantly smaller decline in the future benefits as compared to the commonly reported estimates that suggest a 25-33% decline. I also find that ignoring either the household retirement mechanism or the aggregate factor price adjustment mechanism could lead to a roughly comparable overestimation of the decline in the future retirement benefits. In the second essay, I ask what should be the optimal or welfare-maximizing social security (OASI) tax rate in the U.S. under such demographic developments. I examine this question using a heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model of life-cycle consumption and labor supply, where social security provides partial insurance against unfavorable efficiency realizations that occur before the agents enter the model. I first calibrate the model such that the current OASI tax rate in the U.S. maximizes social welfare under the current demographics, and then I incorporate empirically reasonable population projections into the calibrated model. Finally, I search for the tax rates that are optimal under such projections. I find that the tax rates that maximize welfare under such projections are about 2 to 5 percentage points higher than the current rate. I also find that a large part of the tax burden of population aging is picked up by the households with relatively favorable efficiency realizations. Finally, the model also predicts that population aging and the optimal tax response may imply a decline in the projected retirement benefits, but of a magnitude smaller than when the tax rate is held unchanged at the current level.

In Canada, older adults currently represent a record high proportion of about 15% of the population. Associated with aging is the increased prevalence of multiple morbidity, resulting in widely varied and complex health statuses among our aged. Identifying effective strategies to promote healthy aging and reduce comorbidity hinges on the ability to accurately measure health outcomes. This requires the use of valid and reliable instruments with associated reference statistics to enhance interpretability of test scores. In Chapter 2, I present a validity study of a patient-reported outcome measure, the Patellofemoral Pain and Osteoarthritis Outcome Scale (PFOOS). The PFOOS is designed to evaluate symptoms relating to patellofemoral (PF) pain and osteoarthritis. I recruited 54 adults aged 18+ with peri- or retro-patellar pain for ≥ 3 months, rated ≥3/10 on a numeric pain scale, aggravated by PF-loading tasks (e.g. squats). People with diffuse knee pain, history of total knee or hip replacement, or severe knee trauma in the past year were excluded. Recruitment was done through adverts to staff & students at an Australian University. Participants completed paper & online versions of the PFOOS, Anterior Knee Pain Scale and SF-36, and repeated the PFOOS in 1-2 weeks. Analysis included internal consistency (Cronbach’s α), test-retest & alternate forms reliability (ICC), and construct validation (hypothesis testing). ICCs were ≥ 0.79, Cronbach’s α ≥ 0.61. The PFOOS performed largely as hypothesized. Overall, the PFOOS demonstrated good validity & reliability in this sample. In Chapter 3, I report results of a cross-sectional study aimed to develop normative data for the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI). The DEMMI is a performance-based instrument that measures mobility across a spectrum from bed bound to functional independent mobility. A sample of 183 healthy, community-dwelling adults age 60+ were recruited. Mean DEMMI scores varied by age category, by living arrangement (independent vs. assisted living), and by use of mobility aid (p<0.05). Scores did not differ by sex (p=0.49) or falls history (p=0.21). Reference intervals were provided for individual and group comparison, to facilitate use of the DEMMI across the mobility spectrum in clinical and research settings.