Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Démographie – Épidémiologie – Modèles mathématiques'
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Saubin, Méline. "Effets des variations démographiques sur la structure génétique de populations, dans le cadre d'une maladie émergente." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris, AgroParisTech, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022AGPT0013.
Full textThe demography and genetic structure of a population are closely linked. The study of this interplay is crucial, especially for organisms with frequent demographic fluctuations such as pathogen species responsible for emerging diseases. Classical population genetics models have been used to explore this link for simplified demographic processes. In this thesis, I further investigate the interplay between demography and genetic evolution in pathogen species that display complex life cycles. For this purpose, I focus on two ecological systems that strongly deviate from demographic equilibrium, each of which allows for realistic modelling assumptions. The first ecological system focuses on a major selection event with the temporal dimension being of prime importance. The second system reports recurrent colonisation events in which the spatial aspect is decisive.In the first part, I study an event of resistance overcoming by a pathogen population. Firstly, a modelling approach is used to establish the conditions for observing resistance overcoming and to identify the determinants of resistance durability. The results highlight the antagonistic effect of the proportion of resistant hosts deployed in the agricultural landscape, which decreases the probability of overcoming but increases the speed of overcoming when it occurs. Secondly, this model is implemented to account for genetic evolution at neutral loci. The results identify three demographic scenarios associated with distinct genetic signatures during resistance overcoming: 1) small variations in population sizes and small changes in genetic structures, 2) a strong founder event on the resistant host that in turn creates a genetic structure on the susceptible host, and 3) an evolutionary rescue event that results in a strong founder event on the resistant host, preceded by a bottleneck on the susceptible host. Finally, this theoretical framework of demogenetic analysis is applied to empirical data to infer the parameters underlying the overcoming of resistant RMlp7 poplars by the pathogen Melampsora larici-populina. Two parameters are particularly well estimated and the inferred values are in agreement with our biological knowledge: a high proportion of resistant hosts in the landscape (more than 80%) and an initial frequency of virulent alleles in the pathogen population between 5 and 10%.In the second part, I study colonisation and its genetic consequences. These analyses focus on the recurrent invasion of the Durance River valley by Melampsora larici-populina. Firstly, a mechanistic-statistical model is coupled to epidemiological data to infer the parameters underlying the pathogen's expansion dynamics. This approach shows that colonisation results from frequent long-distance dispersal events, with an average dispersal distance of more than two kilometres. Secondly, the characterisation of several annual colonisation events highlights a similar genetic structure which amplitude however varies greatly between years. Two extremes are identified: in 2011, strong conservation of the initial genetic diversity along the colonised domain; in 2004, rapid erosion of genetic diversity. The inter-annual variations in these structures can be explained by variations in the frequency of long-distance dispersal events.This work highlights the importance of contextualised models that take into account demogenetic variations for a better understanding of biological systems. The information obtained is then crucial for developing relevant control strategies against pathogen populations responsible for emerging diseases
Zaffaroni, Marta. "Modélisation des interactions plant-puceron, en considérant explicitement le rôle des pratiques agricoles : Pêche (Prunus persica) - puceron vert (Myzus persicae) comme cas d'étude An ecophysiological model of plant–pest interactions: the role of nutrient and water availability Maximizing plant production and minimizing environmental impact: comparing agricultural management scenarios with multi criteria decision analysis The role of vectors interference in a shared host-multi vector system." Thesis, Avignon, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020AVIG0723.
Full textAphids alter plant development and can transmit viruses, thus representing a major threat for crops. Aphid pressure on plant can be reduced and crop production can be enhanced by facilitating some ecological processes in addition, or in substitution, to the use of pesticides. Mathematical models can help in predicting the direction and strength of these ecological processes and they can reveal the impact of alternative ways of managing crops. The proposed thesis aims to develop process based mathematical models coupling plant physiology and aphid demography to drive ecological intensification and reduce the use of pesticides. The models consider i) interactions between plant and aphid, while most crop models only consider the effect of the pest on the plant and not vice versa hence impairing insights upon bottom-up pest control via cultural practices; and ii) the effect of cultural practices and the outcome in terms of harvest, issues that are usually absent in ecological models. Therefore, I firstly couple a mechanistic plant growth model with a pest population model, I calibrate it for a peach-green aphid system and I use it to get insights on the mechanisms behind the response of aphids to fertilization and irrigation. Furthermore, I develop an epidemiological model explicitly accounting for the interference between two aphid vectors. I apply the model to explore the effect of inter-specific aphid interference in shaping the spread of plant viruses, considering the effect of agricultural practices
Springer, Sabine. "La projection des ménages selon la taille pour tous les pays membres de l'ONU : utopie ou approche valable ?" Bordeaux 4, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007BOR40010.
Full textThe number and size of households are an important information for the political, administrative and private sector. The model used by UN-Habitat projects the number of households by size for all member countries of the UN. In case of insufficient data the total number is estimated. This work evaluates the technical feasibility, the reliability and the pertinence of the results of this model. It takes into account the avaibility and the quality of data and the comparability of results between countries, especially in what concerns definitions. The hypothesis of a universal evolution of households has to be questioned in the light of the differences observed between countries. But these can often be explained through differences in the age structure of the population and in urbanisation levels. A diversification of hypotheses on the future evolution of the total number of households is necessary so that this approach is valid and of utility for the majority of countries
Deslandes, Emmanuelle. "Modelisation des données longitudinales complexes en épidémiologie." Paris 6, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010PA066161.
Full textCamacho, Anton. "Approches stochastiques pour la modélisation en épidémiologie : application à la grippe humaine." Paris 6, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA066460.
Full textRochet, Marie-Joëlle. "Apports des modèles mathématiques en épidémiologie : points de vue sur la filariose de Bancroft." Lyon 1, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991LYO10237.
Full textNoël, Pierre-André. "Dynamique de modèles épidémiologiques : applications au cas du virus du Nil occidental." Thesis, Université Laval, 2007. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2007/24606/24606.pdf.
Full textEl, Zant Manal. "Contribution à une représentation spatio-temporelle des dépêches épidémiologiques." Aix-Marseille 2, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008AIX20666.
Full textA spatio-temporal representation of event structures is important for an automatic comprehension of disease outbreak reports. The dispersion of components in this type of reports makes it difficult to have such a representation. This work describes an automatic extraction of event structures representation of these texts. We built an information extraction system by using cascaded finite state transducers which allowed the realization of three tasks : the named entity recognition, the arguments annotation and representation and the event structure representation. We obtained with this method a recall between 74. 24% and 100% for the named entity recognition task and a recall between 97. 18% and 99. 54% for argument representation task. Thereafter, we contributed to a normalization task in anaphoric pronouns resolution and in some inferences resolution concerning disease causation, concerned person, spatial and temporal location. We obtained a precision between 70. 83% and 100% for anaphoric pronouns resolution. The evaluation of inferences rules resolutions consisted in finding some counterexamples in the corpora for evaluation
Tewa, Jean Jules. "Analyse globale des modèles épidémiologiques multi-compartimentaux : application à des modèles intra-hôtes de paludisme et de V.I.H." Metz, 2007. http://docnum.univ-lorraine.fr/public/UPV-M/Theses/2007/Tewa.Jean_Jules.SMZ0710.pdf.
Full textIn this thesis, we analyse intrahost models of malaria and H. I. V. These models are of relatively recent appearance and describe the dynamics of the various stages of the parasites, like their interaction with the host cells, in particular the red blood cells and the immunity effectors. During this decade, there was a considerable work on the mathematical modeling of plasmodium falciparum infection ; a review has been done by Molineaux and Dietz. Our work forms part of this effort of comprehension of the models of Anderson, May and Gupta. The study of these models aims three principal goals : to explain the observations by biologically convincing assumptions, to predict the impact of the interventions (for example the use of the anti-paludic drugs and impregnated mosquito nets) and to consider the parameters hidden (one of these parameters being size of the sequestered population of red blood cells). We analyze the stages progression and the differential infectivity models ; then we leave the original model of Anderson, May and Gupta to propose and analyze a general model having the double advantage of describing the dynamics of evolution of the red blood cells, as well as the stages of morphological evolution of the parasites inside the parasitized red blood cells ; to finish we analyze a model whose innovation compared to the precedent is the bond between the compartment of susceptibles and that of the infectious one. We establish in all the studied cases here the global asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium (DFE) when the basic reproduction ratio R0 1. What means that the disease naturally dies out. We also obtain for each model studied here, a condition for global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1. In certain cases, the principle of exclusive competition is also used to slice
Leclerc, Melen. "Approche par modélisation et expérimentation du développement spatio-temporel des maladies telluriques : le cas du pathosystème betterave à sucre – Rhizoctonia solani." Rennes, Agrocampus Ouest, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013NSARC109.
Full textNowadays it is still difficult to predict and control the spread of soilborne diseases that cause substantial damage in crop systems. The aim of this epidemiological interdisciplinary work is to propose models for the spatio-temporal spread of soilborne pathogens in order to point out key parameters for the control of soilborne diseases. This thesis considers the spread of Rhizoctonia solani on sugar beet as an example pathosystem and focuses on three main problems. First, we use experimental measures of the dispersal of the pathogen to parameterise a stochastic spatially explicit model and we show that host growth can trigger the development of epidemics by causing a switch from non-invasive to invasive behaviour. Second, using experimental data we build an age-varying model for the distribution of the incubation period that links hidden infections and above-ground observations of the disease. Then, we investigate the cryptic behaviour of epidemics by using a hierarchical model that considers a realistic incubation period. Third, we use a spatially-implicit model to estimate rates of infection from temporal disease data, and, to analyse the effects of biofumigation on epidemics. These parameters are integrated into an individual-based model to predict the stochastic development of epidemics. Our results confirm that biofumigation only permits a partial control and suggest that this biological control reduces uncertainty of the cryptic development of the disease. To finish with, we discuss the results of the thesis and we present the perspectives of this work
Domenech, de Celles Matthieu. "Modélisation mathématique et estimation statistiques de l’épidémicité des bactéries résistantes aux antibiotiques." Paris 6, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA066074.
Full textThis thesis aims at applying mathematical modeling and statistical estimation tools in order to study the transmission capacity (epidemicity) of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Epidemicity is key to understanding the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in populations. Yet the direct assessment of this quantity is difficult, so that mathematical models fitted to epidemiological data are required. In this thesis, we address the following questions: is there heterogeneity between subtypes of the same bacterial species? How does the acquisition of antibiotic resistance affect the epidemicity of pneumococcus? How does epidemicity impact the effectiveness of control measures within hospital settings or in the community? These questions are explored using mathematical models, fitted to epidemiological data via dynamic-model–specific statistical inference methods. Within hospital settings, our results suggest, first, differences of epidemicity between genetic lineages of Acinetobacter baumannii; they demonstrate, second, limits of patient isolation measures that aim to control extended spectrum beta-lactamase–producing Enterobacteriaceae. For pneumococcus, our results provide evidence for epidemicity differences between serotypes; they also support the existence of a fitness cost associated to the acquisition of penicillin resistance. These results provide new knowledge in order to assess and to anticipate the impact of control measures
Bui, Thi-Mai-Anh. "Séparation des préoccupations en épidémiologie." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris 6, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PA066457.
Full textMathematical and computational models have become widely used and demanded tools for examining mechanisms of transmission, exploring characteristics of epidemics, predicting future courses of an outbreak and evaluating strategies to find a best control-program. One of the problems of modelling is bridging the gap between conceptual models (i.e compartmental models of epidemiology) and their computer simulation (through deterministic, stochastic or agent-based implementation). Domain Specific Languages (DSLs) are often used to address such difficulties by separating two concerns of modelling, specification (conceptual model) and implementation (computational model). In this perspective, we develop a DSL called KENDRICK targeted to the epidemiological modelling and coupled with a simulation platform that allows the study of such models. The other important issue needs to be addressed in the context of epidemiological modelling is the heterogeneities introduced by separate concerns. In order to facilitate the specification of models and their evolution, it is crucial to be able to define concerns with as few dependencies with each other as possible and to combine them as freely as possible. We address such challenges by proposing a common mathematical meta-model that supports both concerns and models and enabling their compositions by some operators. We then implement our proposal language KENDRICK based on this meta-model. The language simplifies the construction of complex epidemiological models by decomposing them into modular concerns, by which common concerns can be reused across models and can be easily changed
Monnet, Elisabeth. "Intérêt des modèles de régression de la survie relative : application au pronostic des cancers colo-rectaux." Dijon, 1995. http://www.theses.fr/1995DIJOMU04.
Full textPons, Salort Margarita. "Modélisation mathématique des interactions multi-hôtes et multi-pathogènes en épidémiologie des maladies infectieuses : conséquences sur la persistance, l'émergence et le contrôle de pathogènes." Paris 6, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA066640.
Full textCette thèse s'inscrit dans le champ de l'épidémiologie des communautés, une perspective écologique des maladies infectieuses qui prend en compte des communautés de populations hôtes et/ou des communautés microbiennes pour aborder un certain nombre de problèmes actuels en épidémiologie des maladies infectieuses. Des approches mathématiques et statistiques, principalement des modèles de transmission multi-hôtes et multi-pathogènes, sont utilisées pour aborder différentes questions liées à la persistance et à la coexistence de pathogènes. La première partie de cette thèse se concentre sur les mécanismes de persistance de pathogènes multi-hôtes. Nous explorons le rôle de différentes espèces de chauve-souris et de leurs traits biologiques sur la persistance d’un Lyssavirus au sein d’un système de grottes en métapopulation. La deuxième partie s’intéresse aux changements de la diversité de souches d’une espèce dûs aux vaccins qui ciblent un sous-ensemble de ces souches et à l’effet de ces changements sur l’incidence des maladies. Ces questions sont abordées pour les Papillomavirus Humains (HPV) et pour le pneumocoque. Pour HPV, nous explorons d’abord les conditions qui pourraient amener à un remplacement génotypique dû à la vaccination. Nous réexaminons ensuite le potentiel oncogène des types d’HPV agents causals du cancer du col de l’utérus par méta-analyse de données publiées. Pour le pneumocoque, nous étudions comment le vaccin conjugué 7-valent a changé les tendances des méningites à pneumocoque en France et comment une réduction de l’usage d’antibiotiques qui a eu lieu en parallèle à l’introduction du vaccin a modulé le remplacement sérotypique induit par la vaccination
Bui, Thi-Mai-Anh. "Séparation des préoccupations en épidémiologie." Thesis, Paris 6, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PA066457/document.
Full textMathematical and computational models have become widely used and demanded tools for examining mechanisms of transmission, exploring characteristics of epidemics, predicting future courses of an outbreak and evaluating strategies to find a best control-program. One of the problems of modelling is bridging the gap between conceptual models (i.e compartmental models of epidemiology) and their computer simulation (through deterministic, stochastic or agent-based implementation). Domain Specific Languages (DSLs) are often used to address such difficulties by separating two concerns of modelling, specification (conceptual model) and implementation (computational model). In this perspective, we develop a DSL called KENDRICK targeted to the epidemiological modelling and coupled with a simulation platform that allows the study of such models. The other important issue needs to be addressed in the context of epidemiological modelling is the heterogeneities introduced by separate concerns. In order to facilitate the specification of models and their evolution, it is crucial to be able to define concerns with as few dependencies with each other as possible and to combine them as freely as possible. We address such challenges by proposing a common mathematical meta-model that supports both concerns and models and enabling their compositions by some operators. We then implement our proposal language KENDRICK based on this meta-model. The language simplifies the construction of complex epidemiological models by decomposing them into modular concerns, by which common concerns can be reused across models and can be easily changed
Rotty, Marie-Caroline. "Modélisations statistiques de données de cohortes de patients suivis à domicile." Thesis, Montpellier, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019MONTS055.
Full textSleep Apnea syndrome (SAS) is a common sleep disorder with a prevalence ranging from 5.9% to 79.2% in European general populations over 35 years of age old but remains under diagnosed. Continuous positive airway Pressure (CPAP) remains the treatment reference for moderate to severe forms of SAS in 2019. CPAP benefits depend on sufficient patient adherence, which is conditioned by multiple factors, including interface related side effects (leakage and their consequences, among others).In this thesis, we demonstrate the feasibility of OSA screening with Jawac® signaling in the general population. The analysis of the long-term CPAP-treated patient results in the interface-vent cohort highlighted that side-effects reported by these patients (some associated with leakage) are associated with compliance and sleepiness, while machine data (residual apnea/hypopnea index and machine leakage) are not.This lack of association between machine data (that could be monitored as proposed in the ATS 2013 algorithm) and patient compliance was confirmed for the patient subgroup of the cohort respecting the machine criteria and interface equipment of the ATS 2013 algorithm.Collaborative work has also made it possible to address the issue of leaks reported by the machine under two other aspects. First of all, it has been shown that the auto- or constant mode of the CPAP has no effect on the level of the leak reported by the machine (while the oro-nasal interface and the pressure level machine have an impact). By studying determinants of leaks during a night of polygraphic recording, the heterogeneity of unintentional leak determinants at the individual was demonstrated. Finding a consensus for how to quantify leak patterns remains a challenge in the field
Dimi, Jean-Luc. "Analyse de modèles épidémiologiques : applications à des modèles parasitaires, à la fièvre hémorragique Ebola." Metz, 2006. http://docnum.univ-lorraine.fr/public/UPV-M/Theses/2006/Dimi.Jean_Luc.SMZ0602.pdf.
Full textThis work comprises two parts. It is a study of the dynamics of epidemiological models. The first part deals with malaria intra-host models with and without immunity. For models with immunity we give some results of the global stability by using techniques of dynamical systems (Lyapounov, LaSalle,. . . ). For models with immunity, we improve the De Leenheer –Smith conditions for R0 on the stability of the endemic equilibrium. The second part deals with stastical transmission models and models of the dynamics of the hemorragic fever. For wich we have data on the episodes statistique occured at Mbomo (Congo) and Kikwit (RDC). For the statistical transmission models we compute R0 for data with incomplete contacts (Mbomo) and data with complete contacts b(Kikwit). Lastly, a study on the global stability is done for the dynamic models
Tsanou, Berge. "Etude de quelques modèles épidémiologiques de métapopulations : application au paludisme et à la tuberculose." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012LORR0055.
Full textThe objective of this thesis is first the modeling, the mathematical analysis and numerical simulations of the metapopulation models of infectious diseases based on some modern approaches of the mobility patterns of humans. Secondly to examine the influence of the mobility (movement) of people on the spread of some human infectious diseases. Finally to deal with the difficult question of the existence and stability of endemic equilibria of metapopulation models. For certain diseases such as Malaria, Tuberculosis or some Sexually Transmitted Diseases that do not confer any immunity, we give some metapopulation models that extend to multiple patches the well know epidemiological models in one patch. Our models are based on the mobility patterns of humans wich can take different forms leading to numerous approaches of modeling metapopulations : the Euler approach of the movement of particles (here humans) as in Fluid Mechanics, is used in the first part. The Lagrange approach of the movement of particles (here humans) as in Fluid Mechanics, is used in the second part. The last and more recent approach based on Statistical Mechanics, wich takes into account the degree distribution of the network of the metapopulation is used in the third and last part of this work. For each approach, we build a metapopulation model for a chosen disease, and gve its mathematical analysis. The theoretical framework we use to analyze ou models is that of triangular, monotone or anti-monotone non-linear dynamical systems. We also use some Lyapunov-Lasalle techniques. In the fisrt two parts of our work, we prove that the steady solutions (called equilibria) of the given systems are globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than or equal to the unity (for the disease free equilibria), and when R0 is greater than one (for the endemic equilibria). In the last part, we build a model to describe the spreading of tuberculosis hinging on the two most used forces of infection in mathematical modeling of epidemics : the frequency-dependant transmission and the density-dependant transmission. For each type of trasmission model, we give the explicit formula for the basic reproduction number. We prove for the frequency-dependant transmission model, that the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 is less than one. And for the density-dependant transmission model, we prove the existence of an endemic equilibrium when R0 is greater than one. Numerical simulations are performed at the end of each part to examine the influence of human's mobility on the basic reproduction number, as well as on the behavior of the solutions and consequently on the spreading patterns of the diseases under study
Van, de Velde Nicolas. "Modélisation de l'efficacité populationnelle du vaccin contre le virus du papillome humain au Canada." Thesis, Université Laval, 2013. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2013/29766/29766.pdf.
Full textObjective: The two main objectives of this thesis were to develop 1) mathematical models to predict the population-level impact of HPV vaccination in Canada, and 2) methods to quantify uncertainty around model predictions. Methods: We developed three mathematical models: 1) a static compartmental model of cervical cancer natural history (Model 1), 2) an individual-based dynamic model of HPV infection (Model 2), and 3) the first individual-based transmission-dynamic model of partnership formation and dissolution, and natural history of multi-type HPV infection and disease (anogenital warts, and cervical, anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers) (Model 3). For each model, an extensive fitting procedure was conducted, which identified multiple posterior parameter combinations (out of hundreds of thousands of prior parameter sets) that fit simultaneously highly stratified behavioral and epidemiologic data, taken from the literature, population-based datasets, and original studies. Parameter uncertainty was illustrated by presenting the median [10th;90th percentiles] of predictions, using the posterior parameter combinations. Sensitivity analysis was conducted varying vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, coverage and vaccination strategies. Results: We provided the following evidence for HPV vaccination recommendations. Models 1-3 predicted that girls-only HPV vaccination can substantially reduce HPV-related burden of disease. Predictions were most sensitive to duration of vaccine protection. Model 3 predicted that the bivalent vaccine will be slightly more effective at preventing cervical cancer in the longer term. However, the quadrivalent vaccine will substantially reduce anogenital warts. Finally, the candidate nonavalent vaccine has the potential to produce substantial incremental benefits if its efficacy and duration of protection are at least 85% and 30 years, respectively. From a methodological point of view, we illustrated that parameter uncertainty surrounding HPV natural history parameters is important and must be presented when providing predictions to decision makers. Finally, we identified key structural assumptions that influence predictions: herd immunity, natural immunity, partnership duration, individual genotypes and vaccine waning function. Conclusion: We developed increasingly sophisticated HPV models and calibration techniques to keep track with the increasingly complex policy questions being asked. Our final model is being used to examine the impact of HPV vaccination on health inequalities, evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination, and optimize screening.
Sedrati, Saïd. "Un outil de spécification et d'évaluation efficace des expressions mathématiques des modèles épidémiologiques pour la simulation des zoonoses." Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/24925.
Full textAllard, Antoine. "Modélisation mathématique en épidémiologie par réseaux de contacts : introduction de l'hétérogénéité dans la transmissibilité." Thesis, Université Laval, 2008. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2008/25738/25738.pdf.
Full textAllard, Antoine. "Percolation sur graphes aléatoires - modélisation et description analytique -." Thesis, Université Laval, 2014. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2014/30822/30822.pdf.
Full textGraphs are abstract mathematical objects used to model the interactions between the elements of complex systems. Their use is motivated by the fact that there exists a fundamental relationship between the structure of these interactions and the macroscopic properties of these systems. The structure of these graphs is analyzed within the paradigm of percolation theory whose tools and concepts contribute to a better understanding of the conditions for which these emergent properties appear. The underlying interactions of a wide variety of complex systems share many universal structural properties, and including these properties in a unified theoretical framework is one of the main challenges of the science of complex systems. Capitalizing on a multitype approach, a simple yet powerful idea, we have unified the models of percolation on random graphs published to this day in a single framework, hence yielding the most general and realistic framework to date. More than a mere compilation, this framework significantly increases the structural complexity of the graphs that can now be mathematically handled, and, as such, opens the way to many new research opportunities. We illustrate this assertion by using our framework to validate hypotheses hinted at by empirical results. First, we investigate how the network structure of some complex systems (e.g., power grids, social networks) enhances our ability to monitor them, and ultimately to control them. Second, we test the hypothesis that the “k-core” decomposition can act as an effective structure of graphs extracted from real complex systems. Third, we use our framework to identify the conditions for which a new immunization strategy against infectious diseases is optimal.
Andraud, Mathieu. "Modélisation de la dynamique d’infection par le circovirus porcin de type 2 (PCV-2) dans un élevage de type naisseur-engraisseur." Rennes 1, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008REN1S143.
Full textA stochastic individual-based model has been developed to represent the population dynamics within a pig production herd and coupled with a PCV-2 specific epidemiological model. Two experimental transmission studies were carried out to estimate accurately the main parameters of the epidemiological model. The resulting model has been used to evaluate the influence of husbandry and control measures on PCV-2 within herd infection dynamics, previously identified as a major risk factor for post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome
Gosselin, Frédéric. "Modèles stochastiques d'extinction de population : propriétés mathématiques et leurs applications." Paris 6, 1997. http://www.theses.fr/1997PA066358.
Full textNoubissi, Justin-Hervé. "Modélisation et simulation spatio-temporelles de systèmes dynamiques complexes avec application en épidémiologie : cas du paludisme." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Sorbonne université, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019SORUS281.
Full textStomping out malaria remains a big challenge for computer scientists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, entomologists, medicine doctors and many others. Their approaches range from the cure of the patients to the total disappearance of the disease. However, the collaboration, not always efficient between all these scientists leads to the setting up of incomplete prototypes or to an under-exploitation of the results obtained. Environmental and climatic factors are part of these elements that are generally omitted by computer scientists and mathematicians in their modeling of the dynamic of the disease transmission. The tropical countries most affected by the disease are also mostly underdeveloped or developing countries and therefore, statistical data are often lacking or difficult to access. The populations are constantly in motion over ecosystems with different environmental and climatic conditions from one region to another. In this thesis, we propose a model that integrates migratory, spatial and temporal elements, while ensuring the stability conditions in the mathematical sense. We present the disease, study existing approaches and present their limitations in our context, and then propose three types of models that we compare: a meta-population model without consideration of climatic factors, a meta-populations with consideration of climatic factors during the human-mosquito contact and a meta-populations model with consideration of climatic factors throughout the evolutionary process of the mosquito ; This last appears to be the most realistic
Gauzère, Franck. "Approche non-paramétrique pour un modèle 3 états avec censures par intervalles : application à la dépendance." Bordeaux 2, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000BOR28709.
Full textBossard, Nadine. "Réflexions sur l'optimisation de quelque méthodes statistiques en épidémiologie du cancer du sein." Lyon 1, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004LYO10004.
Full textBarrios, Ginart Jorge. "Modèles dynamiques décrits par Inclusions différentielles en épidémiologie : le cas de la dengue et le cas du VIH." Thesis, Antilles-Guyane, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011AGUY0413.
Full textLn this work we present two mathematical models that simulate the dynamics of an epidemic outbreak of dengue disease in Cuba. The i first model is described by a system of ordinary differential equations with the purpose of estimaling some essential parameters in the evolution of the epidemie. The second model uses a differential inclusion in order to simulate the dynamic under uncertainties. Also, we review a family of ordinary differential equations models of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cuba and one of these models is reformulated as a differential inclusion. In addition, to analyze the behavior of these two epidemies and the effect of intervention, we develop a practical algorithm for the computation of the reachable sets of the differential inclusions, providing a mathematical framework allowing us to make suitable predictions of aII state variables of the models at a future time
Courcoul-Lochet, Aurélie. "Modélisation de la propagation de Coxiella burnetii en troupeau bovin laitier." Rennes 1, 2010. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00591053.
Full textLa fièvre Q est une zoonose mondialement répandue due à Coxiella burnetii. Elle peut engendrer des troubles de la reproduction chez les ruminants. De plus, ces derniers constituent la principale source d’infection pour l’Homme. Il est donc nécessaire de lutter contre la propagation de C. Burnetii en troupeaux bovins pour améliorer les performances de ces élevages et limiter le risque zoonotique. L’objectif de cette thèse a été de mieux comprendre la propagation de l’infection au sein d’un troupeau bovin laitier, afin de mieux la contrôler. Un modèle épidémiologique stochastique, individu-centré et en temps discret représentant la propagation intra-troupeau de C. Burnetii a été développé. Ses paramètres ont été estimés à partir de données de terrain en utilisant une approche Bayésienne. Une forte hétérogénéité entre vaches excrétrices ayant été rapportée, les voies et niveaux d’excrétion ont été explicitement représentés dans une variante du premier modèle. Les paramètres influençant le plus la dynamique d’infection, identifiés par une analyse de sensibilité, étaient les niveaux d’excrétion, les caractéristiques de la bactérie dans l’environnement et certains traits physiologiques des animaux. Enfin, trois stratégies de vaccination ont été représentées dans le modèle et leurs efficacités à long terme ont été comparées par simulation. La vaccination des vaches et génisses pendant 10 ans s’est avérée la stratégie la plus efficace. En conclusion, outre une meilleure compréhension de la dynamique d’infection, ce travail fournit une aide à la priorisation des besoins de recherche et à la définition des mesures efficaces pour contrôler la fièvre Q en troupeaux bovins laitiers
Duret, Marie-Pierre. "Les modèles en phytopathologie : étude du champignon Sclerotinia sclerotiorum sur colza (Brassica napus)." Lyon 1, 1992. http://www.theses.fr/1992LYO10120.
Full textGuedj, Jérémie. "Inférence dans les modèles dynamiques de population : applications au VIH et au VHC." Bordeaux 2, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006BOR21371.
Full textThe study of the dynamical models of HIV, based on non- linear systems of Ordinary Differential Equations has considerably improved the knowledge on its pathogenicity. This modelling leads to complex issues for identifiability and parameter estimation. To overcome these difficulties, the first models used simplified ODE systems and analyzed each patient separately. However, these models prevent from considering the course of the infection as a whole. We propose here an alternative way based on a full likelihood inference, using the particular structure of the non-simplified models and borrowing strength from the whole sample. We apply it to real data, taking into account the viral load left-censoring, and we illustrate the interest of this approach to provide an alternative tool for analyzing clinical trials. Last, we study the practical identifiability of these models
Tsanou, Berge. "Etude de quelques modèles épidémiologiques de métapopulations : application au paludisme et à la tuberculose." Thesis, Université de Lorraine, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012LORR0055/document.
Full textThe objective of this thesis is first the modeling, the mathematical analysis and numerical simulations of the metapopulation models of infectious diseases based on some modern approaches of the mobility patterns of humans. Secondly to examine the influence of the mobility (movement) of people on the spread of some human infectious diseases. Finally to deal with the difficult question of the existence and stability of endemic equilibria of metapopulation models. For certain diseases such as Malaria, Tuberculosis or some Sexually Transmitted Diseases that do not confer any immunity, we give some metapopulation models that extend to multiple patches the well know epidemiological models in one patch. Our models are based on the mobility patterns of humans wich can take different forms leading to numerous approaches of modeling metapopulations : the Euler approach of the movement of particles (here humans) as in Fluid Mechanics, is used in the first part. The Lagrange approach of the movement of particles (here humans) as in Fluid Mechanics, is used in the second part. The last and more recent approach based on Statistical Mechanics, wich takes into account the degree distribution of the network of the metapopulation is used in the third and last part of this work. For each approach, we build a metapopulation model for a chosen disease, and gve its mathematical analysis. The theoretical framework we use to analyze ou models is that of triangular, monotone or anti-monotone non-linear dynamical systems. We also use some Lyapunov-Lasalle techniques. In the fisrt two parts of our work, we prove that the steady solutions (called equilibria) of the given systems are globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than or equal to the unity (for the disease free equilibria), and when R0 is greater than one (for the endemic equilibria). In the last part, we build a model to describe the spreading of tuberculosis hinging on the two most used forces of infection in mathematical modeling of epidemics : the frequency-dependant transmission and the density-dependant transmission. For each type of trasmission model, we give the explicit formula for the basic reproduction number. We prove for the frequency-dependant transmission model, that the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 is less than one. And for the density-dependant transmission model, we prove the existence of an endemic equilibrium when R0 is greater than one. Numerical simulations are performed at the end of each part to examine the influence of human's mobility on the basic reproduction number, as well as on the behavior of the solutions and consequently on the spreading patterns of the diseases under study
Bourdin, Félicien. "Modélisation macroscopique de mouvements de foule à deux types, modèles SIR condensés." Thesis, université Paris-Saclay, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022UPASM013.
Full textWe study in this thesis the macroscopic modelling of crowd motion in the case of a population divided in several types that may have different behaviours, as well as the development of SIR models in order to analyse the spread of an infectious disease in a school. These two issues were studied separetely. As the original topic of this thesis was crowd motion, we answered to a proposition of MODCOV19 - a platform created by CNRS and INSMI to centralize and coordinate modeling projects on the COVID-19 outbreak - to design epidemiological models adapted to school media. This work is thus composed of two independent parts. On the one hand we analyse the convergence of several numerical schemes that stem from different standpoints on the macroscopic crowd motion equation - optimal transport, gradient flow, finite volumes. We study as well the homogenization of microscopic models of particles towards the macroscopic model. We eventually investigate the inverse problem of identifying of the parameters of a model, being observed the motion of a crowd. On the other hand, we develop a class of ``condensed'' SIR models, where the epidemiological quantities are defined at the scale of groups of individuals. We formally analyse the quality of the condensation process when a full description of the interaction within the population is available. We then detail the implementation carried out in collaboration with MODCOV19
Soubeyrand, Samuel. "Spécifier un processus caché non modélisé en déterminant le lien asymptotique entre résidus et processus caché : application à l'analyse de la variabilité dans les expériences de propagation des rouilles du blé." Montpellier 2, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005MON20075.
Full textGuigal, Pierre-Michel. "Modélisation de la propagation infectieuse dans un réseau organise d'individus : apport de la prétopologie et de la géometrie fractale." Lyon, INSA, 1995. http://www.theses.fr/1995ISAL0064.
Full textThis report deals with forecast and diagnosis modelling of a disease wich spread is intimately linked to the population organisation. According to some hypothesis, we bring to the fore that the characteristics of susceptibility (defined as local relations) give raise to a kind of global organisation in the population. This characteristic forms a main factor in forecasting. Scrapie in sheep give us a concrete support for this approach. The pretopological theory allows us to design a simplified model of the population organisation and suggests that a scale law may structure a network of local relations. This property leads to look for a self similar process in the clusters consitution. We implement pattern recognition methods based on syntax to design a model of cluster constitution on a network of local relations. This on reveals the self similarity property wich allows us to formulate the aim of analysis in the frame of fractal geometry. An adaptation of the Zifp-Mandelbrot law to hierarchic organisation of the local relations enable us to propose a parametric method of anlaysis. We use these results in a new kind of compartmental model that give an analytic representation of the complex phenomena of spreak in a network. In order to validate this synthetic approach of complex spreak in a network, we propose a cellular automaton for simulation of local events as relation and spread. We obtain similar results by the two ways. This result suggests that the synthetic approach is operative
Allorent, Delphine. "Analyse et modélisation épidémiologique de la tache angulaire du haricot ("Phaseolus vulgaris") due à "Phaeoisariopsis griseola"." Montpellier 2, 2005. http://www.theses.fr/2005MON20041.
Full textAmouroux, Edouard. "KIMONO: une méthode de modélisation descriptive centrée agent pour l'explication des systèmes complexes, une application en épidémiologie." Phd thesis, Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00630779.
Full textMbiaga, Cyrille. "Contributions méthodologiques à une analyse de la dynamique socio-spatiale des infections à VIH en Afrique centrale : régions de Batouri (Cameroun), Berberati (Centrafrique)." Aix-Marseille 3, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999AIX30088.
Full textFabre, Virginie. "Réponse démographique des Néandertaliens face aux pressions environnementales du stade isotopique 3 : approche par modélisation écologique." Thesis, Aix-Marseille 2, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011AIX20711/document.
Full textThe Neanderthal population lived and thrived in Europe during about 300ky in Middle Pleistocene. The causes of their disappearance about 30ky ago are strongly debated. Among the current hypotheses developed to explain this demographical crisis, competition with Modern humans, climate changes, epidemic diseases or demographical changes have often been evoked. The aim of this thesis was to re-analyse these assumptions and their determinants by using mathematical modelling. Models are used here to synthesize the data obtained by classical paleoanthropological studies and try to understand the complex and unknown phenomenon relative to the dramatic demographic fluctuation observed in Neanderthal populations during OIS3. Classical mathematical models are firstly used to analyse the influence of both demographical parameters and environmental stresses on the Neanderthal population. Next, we created new deterministic models more specified to the Neanderthal population. After checking the relevance of these models, we used them to analyse the demographical crisis of OIS3 and the information given by modelling have been checked with the information supplied by classical paleoanthropological, zooarchaeological and prehistorical studies. Our results allowed us to exclude the assumption of an epidemic disease or a climate change or even a resource competition as a cause of Neanderthal extinction whereas competition in a broad sense and above all demographic change could have led, under specific conditions, to Neanderthal demise. A demographic modification in the Neanderthal population across the time, in terms of fecundity or maturation speed, could be the reason of Neanderthals disappearance
Yacheur, Souâd. "Modélisation et étude mathématique de la propagation d’une maladie vectorielle (paludisme) au sein d’une population." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021LORR0311.
Full textThe main purpose of this thesis is to study a class of mathematical models describing some problems related to the infection by the Plasmodium falciparum parasite which causes malaria and whose vector is the mosquito.The work is divided into three main parts, the first part is related to the analysis of the spread of malaria in an isolated population. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is studied according to the different epidemiological parameters when the number of basic reproduction is lower than one. When this number is higher than one, the existence of a unique endemic equilibrium is proved. Inspired by the geometric approach introduced by Li and Muldowney, we provided a sufficient condition for this endemic equilibrium to be globally asymptotically stable.A state estimator was constructed to estimate the size of human populations based on the measurement of the number of newly infected humans per unit time. We also proposed two control strategies to eradicate the disease.Finally, to better understand the dynamics of the spread of the disease and to identify the most influential parameters, we have studied the local sensitivity of the number of basic reproduction with respect to each parameter.The second part is about the study of a model that describes the interaction and the spread of the disease within a human population that is divided into two subpopulations, local and non-local. The first subpopulation follows a linear growth while the non-local population follows a logistic growth among the first. We choose to study the impact of the migration of people from an endemic country to another country declared free of the disease or towards the eradication of the disease.Our analysis yielded conditions of the persistence of the disease, we studied the possibility of controlling the disease in a first step through the control of the carrying capacity, then we developed a method based on a matrix called matrix of vectorial transmission which was used to determine the link between the two subpopulations and the population of mosquitoes, according to the values of this matrix entries in order to ensure the control of the disease spread. In addition, a local and global sensitivity study of the level of local and non-local infection was performed to determine the most influential model input parameters.The last part is devoted to the study of the global dynamics of models with multiple subpopulations that are assumed to be weakly interconnected. Our work highlights a process that allows us to perform a complete analysis of many dynamical systems modeling the spread of a disease that involves different populations. The objective is to be able to determine the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than one as well as the global stability of the different types (interior or frontier) of endemic equilibria as a function of the different local basic reproduction numbers and the nature of the interconnections between the network components
Tellier, Eric. "Noyades et traumatismes liés aux vagues et marées sur le littoral océanique girondin : épidémiologie, modélisation et prévention." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019BORD0225.
Full textThe Gironde coasts in southwestern France are shaped by ocean conditions. Sandy beaches are exposed to high-energy waves which create hazardous conditions with shore-break waves and rip currents. These phenomena cause drownings and potentially serious injuries, requiring patrolling and rescue means.The aims of this work were to study wave-related drownings and injuries (i.e. surf zone injuries, SZI) in several ways: by describing the population of victims, modelling the risks and identifying the actions needed to prevent them.First, the demographic characteristics and severity of SZI were described. By analysing calls to the Gironde Emergency Medical Aid Service, 652 drownings and 814 traumas were recorded. From these data and using meteorological data, a model was created to predict the risk of drowning on the Gironde surf coast. It was then validated, based on the weather forecasts. The risk of drowning due to rip-currents can thus be anticipated three days in advance. The risks factors of shorebreak related injury were also studied.A theoretical framework to describe the timeline of drowning, using a continuous Markov process, was proposed. It allowed, among other things, to simulate the theoretical impact of a reduction in rescue time on the severity of drownings. Shortening the median rescue time from 15 to 10 minutes would reduce severe drowning cases by half.Finally, the use of risk predictions in prevention action was discussed on the basis of concepts from a literature review. This work will make it possible to set up and evaluate an action to prevent SZI in Gironde
Nkague, Nkamba Léontine. "Robustesse des seuils en épidémiologie et stabilité asymptotique d'un modèle à infectivité et susceptibilité différentielle." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012LORR0382.
Full textThis memory is divided in two parts. The first part talk about robustness of basic reproduction number R0 and basic reproduction number type S (T) both of them are thresholds for epidemic systems. We show that those thresholds are not good indicators to evaluate the distance between the jacobian matrix J(DFE) of system at the disease free equilibrium (DFE) and the set of stable ( S_t) or unstable (U ) matrix. The second part talk about an deterministic model ( S V E I R) ; where (S) represent the susceptibles ; (V) the vaccined ; (E) the latents,(I) the infectious, and (R) the removed. In this model, the vaccined are considered like susceptibles, because the vaccine don't confers an perfect immunity. The Basic reproduction number, (R_vac), who ensures the existence and unicity of endemic equilibrium is determined. The global stability of endemic equilibrium point is established using Lyapunov technics when (R_vac) is greater than one (R_vac)> 1
Cisse, Baki. "Automates cellulaires pour la modélisation et le contrôle en épidémiologie." Thesis, Perpignan, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PERP0011.
Full textThis PhD thesis considers the general problem of epidemiological modelling and control using cellular automata approach.We first focused on the study of the SEIR model. On the one hand, we have shown that the traditionnal neighborhood contribute to underestimate the incidence and prevalence of infection disease. On the other hand, it appeared that the spatial distribution of the cells in the lattice have a real impact on the disease spreading. The second study concerns the transmission of the vector-borne disease in heterogeneous landscape with host community. We considered a SIRS-SI with various level of competence at witch the environnment heterogeneity has been characterized by the variation of the birth flow and the death rate. We simulated the Chagas disease spreading and shown that the heterogeneity of habitat and host diversity contribute to decrease the infection. One of the most important results of our work, was the proposition of the spatial reproduction number expression based on two matrices that represent the interaction factors between the cells in the lattice
Guifo, Fodjo A. Yvan. "Séparation des préoccupations dans les modèles compartimentaux étendus." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Sorbonne université, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023SORUS262.
Full textMathematical modeling and computer simulation have very often contributed to improving our understanding, prediction, and decision making in the face of epidemics. However, a problem that is often encountered in the development and implementation of epidemiological models is the mixing of different aspects of the model. Indeed, epidemiological models become more and more complex as new concerns are taken into account (age, gender, spatial heterogeneity, containment or vaccination policies, etc.). These aspects, which are usually intertwined, make models difficult to extend, modify or reuse. In mathematical modeling applied to epidemiology, two main approaches are considered. The first one, the "compartmental models", has proven to be robust and provides fairly good results for many diseases. However, it does not take into account some sources of heterogeneity. The second approach, based on "contact networks", has proven to be intuitive to represent contacts between individuals and brings very good results concerning the prediction of epidemics. However, this approach requires more effort during the implementation. A solution to this problem has been proposed: Kendrick. It is a modeling and simulation tool and approach that has shown promising results in separating epidemiological concerns, by defining them as stochastic automata (continuous time markov chain), which can then be combined using an associative and pseudo commutative tensor sum operator. However, a significant limitation of this approach is its restricted application to compartmental models. Taking into account the particularities and shortcomings of each approach, in this research work, we propose a combined approach between compartmental models and contact network models. The aim is to generalize the Kendrick approach to take into account certain aspects of contact networks in order to improve the predictive quality of models with significant heterogeneity in the structure of the contacts, while maintaining the simplicity of compartmental models. To achieve this, this extension of compartmental models is made possible by applying the infection force formalism of Bansal et al (2007) and the behavioral Template Method Design Pattern. The result is an approach that is easy to define, analyze and simulate. We validated this approach on different techniques to generalize compartmental models. Simulation results showed that our approach succeeds in capturing the aspects of contact network models within the compartmental framework while improving the prediction quality of the Kendrick tool and does not deviate from a typical simulation approach on a contact network model
Robert-Briand, Aurélie. "Infections intramammaires de la vache laitière en l'absence de traitement antibiotique systématique au tarissement." Rennes 1, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006REN1S116.
Full textAkiri, Preston E. G. "Modélisation de la mobilité résidentielle : l'exemple du Havre." Rouen, 1989. http://www.theses.fr/1989ROUEL078.
Full textThis work concerns the study and the modelling of residential mobility through the application of an input-output model (markov chains) on the le havre housing market. It provides an evaluation of housing needs (demande) by giving the average number of moves that are made as a result of each dwelling that become available in the housing market. The model presented is thus seen as a tool that could help for decision-making (prevision, testing of hypotheses on demande and supply. And for the simulation of housing opportunities in the market)
Bichara, Derdeï. "Etude de modèles épidémiologiques : stabilité, observation et estimation de paramètres." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013LORR0011.
Full textThe purpose of this thesis is on the one hand to study stability of equilibria of some epidemic models and secondly to construct an observer to estimate the non-measured states and a key parameter in a within host model. We propose extensions of classical models SIR, SIRS and SIS and we study the global stability of their equilibria. In presence of multiple pathogen strains, we proved that competitive exclusion principle holds: the strain having the largest threshold wins the competition by eliminating the others. It turns out that the winning strain is the one for which the equilibrium gives the minimum of the susceptible host population. This can be interpreted as pessimization principle. By considering the same model with two strains and a frequency-dependent type of the contact law, we prove that dynamics changes and a coexistence equilibrium exists and it is globally asymptotically stable under some conditions. The asymptotic behavior of the two other boundary equilibria is also established. The stability study of equilibrium states is mainly done by construction Lyapunov functions combined with LaSalle's invariance principle. We consider an age-structured within-host model of the Plasmodium falciuparum parasite with a general infection force. We develop a method to estimate the total parasite burden that cannot be measured by the current methods. To this end, we use some tools from control theory, more precisely observers with unknown inputs, to estimate the non measured states from the measured ones (data). From this, we deduce a method to estimate an unknown parameter that represents infection rate of healthy reed blood cells by the parasites
Lalloué, Benoît. "Méthodes d'analyse de données et modèles bayésiens appliqués au contexte des inégalités socio-territoriales de santé et des expositions environnementales." Phd thesis, Université de Lorraine, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00943004.
Full textDezécache, Camille. "Les fondements de REDD+ à l’épreuve des modèles de déforestation : cas d’étude sur le Plateau des Guyanes." Thesis, Guyane, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017YANE0005/document.
Full textSince its appearance at the beginning of the 2000’s, the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, known as REDD+, has gradually been admitted as an indispensable option for global policies aiming at tackling climate change. Relying on the concept of « avoided deforestation », it requires the formulation of a reference scenario aiming at evaluating efforts made by the countries involved in controlling their level of deforestation. Those scenarios are facing numerous political and scientific debates. This thesis aims at putting into perspective the principles of REDD+, based on a study site covering the Guiana Shield. In a first step, the formulation of a spatialiazed deforestation model over French Guiana will be presented, insisting on the necessity to focus on socio-economic drivers of deforestation. This statement will be reinforced, in a second step, by the the study of deforestation due to gold mining in the Guiana Shield, showing a very strong effect of gold prices and national political contexts on deforestation. These results finally contribute to a critical discussion on REDD+ mechanism, based on the formulation of very variable reference scenarios, relying more on political than on scientific determinants, and potentially enabling the emergence of environmental blackmailing
Proust-Lima, Cécile. "Modèles mixtes à structure latente pour données longitudinales multivariées hétérogènes : application à l'étude du vieillissement cognitif et de la démence." Bordeaux 2, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006BOR21373.
Full textThe aim of this work was to propose statistical models for longitudinal, heterogeneous and multivariate data in order to describe the cognitive evolution and its association with dementia in the elderly. A nonlinear model with a latent process was proposed in which latent cognitive evolution is described by a mixed model including a Brownian motion, and psychometric tests which measure cognition are linked to the latent cognitive process by nonlinear estimated transformations. We then extended this model to account for the heterogeneity of the cognitive declines. We proposed two nonlinear latent class models for describing the profiles of cognitive decline and their association with either the probability of dementia at a given time or the risk of dementia with time. In addition to the description of the cognitive declines associated with dementia, we proposed a tool for detecting a dementia according to cognitive evolution