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1
Martini, Michele. "Investigating the Historical Background of Mocha Dick's Legend." Leviathan 25, no. 3 (2023): 114–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/lvn.2023.a913125.
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Abstract: It is widely acknowledged that Herman Melville's Moby-Dick has been inspired by a variety of sources. One of these is the legend of Mocha Dick, about which Jeremiah N. Reynolds published the earliest known account in 1839. In his narration, Reynolds describes an evening he spent on board an unspecified whaling ship off Mocha Island, Chile, during which the whaler's first mate claimed to have killed Mocha Dick on a previous whaling voyage. This essay aims to substantiate the setting of Reynolds's account, in an attempt to identify the alleged murderer of Mocha Dick and eventually to investigate his previous voyages to seek any evidence of a large and / or white whale killed near Mocha Island. Overall, Reynolds's text was found to be consistent with the sources consulted: primarily, the logbook of the schooner Penguin . Reynolds's narration was identified as having taken place on April 3 or 4, 1830, on board the whaling ship Cincinnatus , which was built in New York in 1818. The identity of the whaling ship's first mate, however, could not be established due to a lack of supporting documentation, which in turn prevents further investigation into the origins of Mocha Dick's legend.
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Zhang, Ting. "Captain Ahab as a Hero in Melville’s Moby-Dick." Economic Society and Humanities 1, no. 5 (2024): 127–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.62381/e244516.
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Herman Melville’s Moby-Dick tells the story of Ishmael, a sailor who joins the whaling ship Pequod, captained by the obsessed and vengeful Captain Ahab. Ahab’s sole mission is to hunt down and kill the legendary white whale, Moby-dick, who had previously bitten off Ahab’s leg at the knee. As a towering masterpiece of American literature, Moby-Dick is a novel that defies simple categorization and is renowned for its rich narrative complexity and profound thematic depth. Central to the novel is the character of Captain Ahab, whose quest to vanquish the white whale, Moby-dick, forms the back bone of the story. On the one hand, Ahab embodies various heroic qualities; on the other, Ahab is also perceived as a monomaniacal villain due to his apparent flaws and descent into madness. Through an examination of Ahab’s actions, motivations and interactions, this essay argues that Ahab’s heroism is multifaceted, encompassing elements of classical heroism as well as tragic heroism by exploring Ahab’s heroic traits and their implications in the broader context of Melville’s masterpiece.
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Erthel, Thomas. "„The common continent of men“? Die Pequod und ihre Crew als Verhandlungsraum von ,Welt‘ in Melvilles Moby-Dick; Or, The Whale." arcadia 51, no. 2 (2016): 308–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/arcadia-2016-0025.
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AbstractQuestioning the well-known interpretation of the Pequod as a microcosm, this article focuses on passages in Melville’s Moby-Dick; Or, The Whale in which the ship serves as an arena for testing and questioning various definitions of the ‘world.’ Starting with Ishmael’s claim that he wants to “see the world” by travelling aboard the Pequod, this article isolates different meanings of ‘world’ as they are invoked by the text – pointing to a meaning beyond the cartography of the planet earth. As will be shown, Moby-Dick distinguishes between the extrinsic perspective on planet earth, as cartography applies it, and contrasts it with a level, intrinsic perspectives that one adopts standing on the deck of a ship, looking out on the ocean. The intrinsic perspective can furthermore be related to the object of Ahab’s hunt, the white whale, which carries another understanding of ‘world’ as a deep space that cannot be grasped by cartography. In a final step, the crew and its composition of international members will be analyzed by focusing on the metaphor of the “common continent of men,” which surprisingly raises serious doubts about the unity of the Pequod’s crew.
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Kirsch, Geoffrey R. "Piercing the Corporate Whale: Agents, Principals, and the Personified Impersonal in Moby-Dick." Leviathan 26, no. 3 (2024): 55–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/lvn.2024.a944385.
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Abstract: This essay considers Moby-Dick , the paradigmatic great American novel, as a meditation on the great American legal fiction of corporate person-hood. Infused with the new and exhilarating energies of a "joint-stock world" that "pays dividends," Melville's novel is also deeply preoccupied with the qualities of the corporate person: intangibility, immortality, and individuality. In delimiting the corporation's ontology, agency, and accountability, legal theorists grappled with the same mysteries of the "personified impersonal" embodied in both Moby Dick and the Pequod : is it "agent" or "principal," one man or thirty, an autonomous being of its own or a legal-fictitious mask veiling the real forces that act through it? I argue that the same tension between individual and collective personhood lies at the heart of Ahab's quest for revenge on Moby Dick. If Ahab's hatred of the white whale rests on a fear that the corporate form could be abused as a mere screen for the malign actions of a hidden "principal," his consolidation of tyrannical power over the Pequod 's crew ironically realizes that very fear by reducing the ship to his own alter ego.
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Keim, Robert. "“Past All Speech”: The Enactment of Proto-Modernist Literary Aesthetics in Herman Melville’s “Benito Cereno”." Leviathan 26, no. 2 (2024): 40–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/lvn.2024.a933161.
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Abstract: Written after the proto-modernist novels Moby-Dick and Pierre , both of which elicited censure from contemporary critics, Herman Melville’s “Benito Cereno” is recognized as an enigmatic and symbolic work that invites deep reflection on the status of literature, language, and signification. However, critics have not presented “Benito Cereno,” and more specifically the dramatic narrative that occurs aboard the slave ship San Dominick , as a crucial text vis-à-vis Melville’s experimental progression toward the genesis of the modern novel. This essay argues that in “Benito Cereno,” Melville avoided the bold stylistic unconventionality found in Moby-Dick and Pierre and continued exploring innovative prose fiction by inscribing his proto-modernist literary aesthetic into an enacted text encountered by a character who represents an uncomprehending traditional reader. In this analysis of “Benito Cereno,” the San Dominick narrative illustrates how a new literature can be written and how it must be read, such that the novella provides crucial insight into Melville’s exceptional contribution to the proto-modernist literary aesthetics that were emerging during the transition from realism to modernism.
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Oumarou, Issoufou, and Ousseini A. Maiga. "A Causal Relationship Between Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Niger." Journal of Social and Economic Statistics 8, no. 2 (2019): 24–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jses-2019-0003.
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Abstract Foreign direct investment and Trade were regarded as an important elements in enhancing economic development. This study used some time series econometric tests including the Augmented Dickey – Fuller (ADF) unit root test developed by Dickey – Fuller, stationary test developed by Kwiatkowski-Philips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS), Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test to analyse the connection between foreign direct investment, trade and economic growth in Niger. The tests results showed a bilateral relationship between trade and economic growth and a unidirectional causal relationship between trade and foreign direct investment with direction from trade to foreign direct investment. The long run effect tests revealed that trade has a positive effect on economic growth while foreign direct investment has a negative effect on economic growth in Niger. On average, ceteris paribus, the coefficients are statistically significant at 5% level.
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Lu, Zhiping, Ming Li, and Wei Zhao. "Stationarity Testing of Accumulated Ethernet Traffic." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2013 (2013): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/217213.
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We investigate the stationarity property of the accumulated Ethernet traffic series. We applied several widely used stationarity and unit root tests, such as Dickey-Fuller test and its augmented version, Phillips-Perron test, as well as the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test and some of its generalizations, to the assessment of the stationarity of the traffic traces at the different time scales. The quantitative results in this research provide evidence that when the time scale increases, the accumulated traffic series are more stationary.
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Mamatqulova, S.F, and B.E Turayev. "SURXONDARYODA TO'QIMACHILIK MAHSULOTLARINI ISHLAB CHIQARISHNI ARIMA MODELI ASOSIDA PROGNOZLASH." JOURNAL OF UNIVERSAL SCIENCE RESEARCH 2, no. 1 (2024): 307–20. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10566021.
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To‘qimachilik yengil sanoatning bir qismi bo‘lib, uning eng ilg’or tarmoqlaridan biri hisoblanadi. O‘z navbatida yengil sanoat asrlar davomida mavjud bo‘lib, har doim mamlakat iqtisodiyotining barqaror o‘sishiga ulkan hissa qo‘shib kelgan. Shu bois, to‘qimachilik mahsulotlarini ishlab chiqarishni prognozlash orqali keyingi yillar uchun qanday ko‘rsatkichlarga erishish mumkinligi haqida ma’lumotlarga ega bo‘lamiz. Bu esa ushbu sohaning keyingi yillarda yuqori natijalar ko‘rsatishi uchun istiqbolli reja va strategiyalar ishlab chiqishga imkoniyat yaratadi. Ushbu maqolada Surxondaryo viloyati to‘qimachilik mahsulotlarini ishlab chiqarishni prognozi ARIMA modeli yordamida tahlil qilingan.
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Utomo, Danang. "Psychological Conflicts in the Film in the Heart of the Sea (2015): A Psychological Approach." Jurnal Sains Sosio Humaniora 7, no. 2 (2023): 200–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.22437/jssh.v7i2.25177.
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This study aims to analyze a psychological conflict experienced by the crew of the Essex ship in the film in the heart of the sea (2015) which is based on the legend of the Moby Dick. In this study, researchers used the behavioristic of John Broadus Watson. This research is included in qualitative research with a focus on the relation between literature and psychology by means of psychological criticism in categories such as psychoanalysis the author, reader and text also the Psychology and the creative process, Psychoanalysis and biography by using psychoanalysis. The data analysis technique in this research is descriptive analysis. From this study, found findings based on the formulation of the problem. First, what behavior can be observed in the psychological conflicts that occur in the crew of the Essex ship. . According to Watson, the only meaningful data in psychology is behavior that can be observed and measured objectively. Second, how the environment can generate the behavior of the characters. Watson believed that behavior is the result of the environmental factors that influence an individual’s learning and experience. Watson emphasized the role of conditioning, or the process of learning through association, in shaping behavior. What the crew of the Essex ship experienced in the movie "In The Heart of The Sea" (2015) was not only internal factors between other individuals, but also external factors such as natural conditions, culture and even time. Third, to identify the process of stimulus and response from the character of this film. Watson's theory of behaviorism points that all behavior is learned through the process of conditioning. This process involves the formation of associations between stimuli and response
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Samuel Asuamah Yeboah. "Is purchasing powerparity hypothesis valid in ghana? an empirical assessment." Journal of Management and Science 12, no. 1 (2022): 89–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.26524/jms.12.17.
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The paper examines the theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis to determine whether the hypothesis is valid for Ghana for the period 1960 to 2013, by employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Kwiatkwski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) test on a single time series data to test the unit root properties of the real exchange rate (Official exchange rate).It is found that the real exchangerate hasa unit root or are non-stationary in levels. The findings suggest that the purchasing power parity hypothesis is not valid for the period under discussion.
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Channa, Sumaira, Pervaiz Ahmed Memon, and Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro. "Co-Integration between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate of Selected SAARC Countries: An Empirical Study." Sukkur IBA Journal of Management and Business 3, no. 1 (2016): 82. http://dx.doi.org/10.30537/sijmb.v3i1.138.
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This study examines the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates of three selected SAARC countries including Pakistan, India and Srilanka; using monthly data from period of January 1999 to December 2015. This study employs statistical techniques of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips Perron (PP), unit root tests, and Johansen’s Co-integration test to determine long run equilibrium association ship between stock price indices and exchange rates. The study finds out no Co-integration between the two variables, hence no long run association is existing between them. This finding implies that investors in these markets are having more opportunities for diversifying their portfolios. However, using Granger Causality and impulse response tests, it finds significant short-run feedback effects, as stock prices Granger cause exchange rates in case of Pakistan and unidirectional causality flows from exchange rates to stock prices in case of Srilanka but no proof of causality running in either direction in case of India. Hence the findings for Pakistan and Srilanka have crucial policy implications.
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Santos e Carvalho, Ricardo Vinicius C. dos. "Made a Moby-Dick: an Organizational Reading of Paulo Guedes’ Privatist Monomania as a Discursive Strategy of Neoliberal Authoritarian Leadership in Brazil." Organizações & Sociedade 30, no. 104 (2023): 174–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1984-92302022v30n0006en.
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Abstract Authoritarian leadership is a challenge for organizational analysis. The perplexity regarding how we have accepted its occurrence various times throughout history runs through the thinking of intellectuals such as Adorno, Habermas, Sloterdijk, and Arendt. A complementary way of studying it is through literature. Literature has enormous potential for interpreting the world and, given the creativity of its authors, it can deal with complex themes, characters, and events, with a freedom that, due to its methodological rigor, science often does not allow. As organizations are also constituted discursively, the textual elements of literature give us an epistemological freedom, enabling analyses that can address traditional organizational topics, such as leadership, in another way. This theoretical essay proposes to use a classic of literature, the novel Moby-Dick , to conduct a critical discourse analysis, based on Norman Fairclough, of the neoliberal-authoritarian monomaniac leadership of Paulo Guedes, the Minister for the Economy of Jair Bolsonaro’s government. The objective is to demonstrate the potential and richness of using literature combined with discourse analysis to understand organizational phenomena. The interpretation will be guided by the leadership style of the character Ahab, ship captain of the Pequod, who as a result of his obsession with hunting the giant white sperm whale, Moby Dick, leads his vessel to a tragic end, similar to what has occurred to Brazil due to the hatred toward the State present in Paulo Guedes’ discourses.
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DOĞANER, Ayça. "EFFECTS OF ADDED VALUE IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY AND SERVICES SECTOR ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: NONLINEAR COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS FOR TURKIYE." Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi 22, no. 2 (2022): 159–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.30976/susead.1170323.
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The aim of this study is to determine the relations between the added values of the manufacturing industry and the services sector and GDP using time series models. In this study, in which the annual data of 1960-2020 for Turkiye are used, Harvey et al. (2008) Harvey and Leybourne (2007) linearity tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Philips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Philips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) conventional unit root tests for linearly detected series and nonlinear series Kapetanios, Shin and Snell (2003) (CSR) unit root tests were performed for After the series were determined to be stationary, Kapetanios, Shin and Snell (KSS) (2006) cointegration test was performed. According to the results of the analysis, no cointegrated relationship was found between the added values of the manufacturing industry and the services sector and GDP in Turkiye. The fact that there is no cointegrated relationship between the three variables means that the added value of the manufacturing industry and the added value of the services sector do not sufficiently support economic growth in Turkiye. It is important for policy makers to implement practices in order to increase the effects of these variables, which are related to each other, on economic growth, that is, the added value of the manufacturing industry and the services sector.
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Yurtseven, Omer, Dilek Temiz Dinç, and Aytaç Gökmen. "Foreign Direct Investment Operations of International Businesses and Their Impact in Turkey." International Journal of Sustainable Economies Management 9, no. 1 (2020): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijsem.2020010101.
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The Republic of Turkey is located at the crossroads of many trade and investment routes, converging East with the West and North with the South. However, Turkey is not self-sufficient with respect to capital formation. As a result, it wishes to obtain the deficient part of the capital stock from foreign sources, mainly from foreign direct investment (FDI). The purpose of this paper is to examine the FDI inflows to the Turkish Republic and its effect on economic growth by employing the augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Phillips-Perron, Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, Shin unit root tests, and least squares method. The results indicate that FDI inflows to Turkey bring about economic growth.
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MINYUKU, Langutani, and Johannes SHEEFENI. "TESTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS HYPOTHESIS IN SOUTH AFRICA: A LINEAR AND NON-LINEAR APPROACH." Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law 33 (2025): 205–18. https://doi.org/10.47743/jopafl-2024-33-15.
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in South Africa over the period 2000 to 2023. The study employed the wavelet unit root process, namely the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and the Maximum Overlap Wavelet Transform (MODWT) unit root processes. Furthermore, the linear tests comprised of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), the Phillips-Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests were used, while the Fourier ADF tests were used as the non-linear end. Consequently, all the linear tests reveal some mean reversion while the Fourier ADF test confirms partial hysteresis: shocks to unemployment are indeed not permanent, but their effects do last over time.
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Kagalwala, Ali. "kpsstest: A command that implements the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin test with sample-specific critical values and reports p-values." Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata 22, no. 2 (2022): 269–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1536867x221106371.
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Commonly used unit-root tests in time-series analysis—such as the Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests—use a null hypothesis that the series contains a unit root. Such tests have low power against the alternative—when a time series is near integrated or highly autoregressive—implying that they do poorly in distinguishing such a series from having a unit root. Kwiatkowski et al. (1992, Journal of Econometrics 54: 159–178) introduced the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin test, in which the null hypothesis is that the series is stationary, to deal with this problem. One shortcoming of the presently available Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin test in Stata is that it uses asymptotic critical values regardless of the sample size. This poses a problem in that researchers—especially social scientists—are often presented with short time series. I introduce kpsstest, a command that extends the previous implementation by including an option for a zero-mean-stationary null hypothesis, generating sample and test-specific critical values, and reporting appropriate p-values.
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Harris, David, David I. Harvey, Stephen J. Leybourne, and Nikolaos D. Sakkas. "LOCAL ASYMPTOTIC POWER OF THE IM-PESARAN-SHIN PANEL UNIT ROOT TEST AND THE IMPACT OF INITIAL OBSERVATIONS." Econometric Theory 26, no. 1 (2009): 311–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466609090768.
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In this note we derive the local asymptotic power function of the standardized averaged Dickey–Fuller panel unit root statistic of Im, Pesaran, and Shin (2003, Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74), allowing for heterogeneous deterministic intercept terms. We consider the situation where the deviation of the initial observation from the underlying intercept term in each individual time series may not be asymptotically negligible. We find that power decreases monotonically as the magnitude of the initial conditions increases, in direct contrast to what is usually observed in the univariate case. Finite-sample simulations confirm the relevance of this result for practical applications, demonstrating that the power of the test can be very low for values of T and N typically encountered in practice.
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Shaik, Muneer, and S. Maheswaran. "Random Walk in Emerging Asian Stock Markets." International Journal of Economics and Finance 9, no. 1 (2016): 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v9n1p20.
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<p>The random walk hypothesis is an important area of research in finance and many tools have been proposed to investigate the behaviour of the fluctuations in stock prices. However, a detail study on emerging Asian stock markets which employ the various unit root tests has not been done. In this paper, we employ six different unit root tests such as the Augmented Dickey and Fuller test (1979), Phillips and Perron test (1988), Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test(1992), Dickey-Fuller GLS (ERS) test (1996), Elliot-Rothenberg-Stock Point-Optimal test (1996) and Ng and Perron (2001) unit root tests on 10 emerging Asian stock markets to detect for the presence of a random walk in stock prices. We have conducted the unit root tests during different sub-sample time periods of global financial crisis to check for robustness. To be specific, we have found that during the overall sample period (2001-2015) 8 out of 10 Asian stock markets and during the pre-crisis period (2001-2007) all the 10 Asian stock market prices do follow random walk according to the unit root tests under consideration. However, during the crisis &amp; post-crisis period (2008-2015) we have found only 5 out of 10 Asian markets follow the random walk movement based on unit root tests.</p>
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Mongale, Itumeleng Pleasure, and Joel Hinaunye Eita. "Commodity prices and stock market performance in South Africa." Corporate Ownership and Control 11, no. 4 (2014): 370–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cocv11i4c3p7.
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As an export based economy, commodity prices and stock market performances are always a course for concern in the South African economy. This paper investigates the effects of the commodity prices and selected macroeconomic variables on stock market performance. The paper uses quarterly time series data and the estimation covers the period 1994 to 2013. Using Engle-Granger two steps econometric technique, the underlying series are tested for univariate characteristics of the variables unit root by employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test statistics. The findings show that an increase in commodity prices is associated with an increase in stock market performance and there is a positive association between stock market and macroeconomic such as money supply and exchange rate in South Africa.
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Haque, Md Ariful, and Aziz Ahmed. "Time Series Modeling and Forecasting on GDP Data of Bangladesh: An Application of Arima Model." International Journal of Latest Technology in Engineering, Management & Applied Science XIII, no. IV (2024): 199–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.51583/ijltemas.2024.130423.
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The basic economic condition of a country is measured and presented by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Government’s high officials, Business owners or managers, rely on forecasting of GDP, to determine fiscal year monitory policy and operating activities. This paper has collected GDP data from 1971 to 2021 from an international website. Exploratory analysis has performed for trend, seasonality & outlier detection. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Phillip Peron and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test has performed to check seasonality and stationary. To determine the best fitted model for GDP, ARIMA models (Autoregressive integrated Moving Average) have constructed using Box-Jenkins technique. Considering all statistical criterions this paper has determined ARIMA (4, 2, 1) isthe best fitted model and forecasted for the next ten years. Finally, residual test has performed to determine reliable forecasting.
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Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan, Tolga Omay, Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, and Safwan Mohd Nor. "Smooth Break Detection and De-Trending in Unit Root Testing." Mathematics 9, no. 4 (2021): 371. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9040371.
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This study explores the methods to de-trend the smooth structural break processes while conducting the unit root tests. The two most commonly applied approaches for modelling smooth structural breaks namely the smooth transition and the Fourier functions are considered. We perform a sequence of power comparisons among alternative unit root tests that accommodate smooth or sharp structural breaks. The power experiments demonstrate that the unit root tests utilizing the Fourier function lead to unexpected results. Furthermore, through simulation studies, we investigate the source of such unexpected outcomes. Moreover, we provide the asymptotic distribution of two recently proposed unit root tests, namely Fourier-Augmented Dickey–Fuller (FADF) and Fourier-Kapetanios, Shin and Shell (FKSS), which are not given in the original studies. Lastly, we find that the selection of de-trending function is pivotal for unit root testing with structural breaks.
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Pradipta, Muhammad Anas. "Investigation of the price linkage between Asian LNG spot and Far East Asian LNG prices and its implications." Indonesian Journal of Energy 1, no. 1 (2018): 52–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.33116/ije.v1i1.13.
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For so many times, Far East Asian liquid natural gas (LNG) buyers have been using price linked to crude oil-indexed, now they need to find another alternative pricing formula for their crucial energy supply as a better price structure that could reflect the market is needed. LNG spot price is expected to be the pillar for the future LNG trading, especially for Far East Asia Market. As less and less long-term contracts are signed in the Far East Asia Market, this creates an additional demand for the LNG in the spot market, while it raises some issues about the presence of different LNG pricing mechanisms. Most of the LNG spot prices in Asia are indexed to the relatively low natural gas prices in Atlantic Basin. Furthermore, the advancement of drilling technology in the US drives down its natural gas prices, resulting in price discrepancies between Asian LNG spot and East Asian LNG prices. This study investigates whether there is a price linkage between Asian LNG spot and East Asian LNG prices. This study comprehends 91 observations collected from January 2010 to July 2017. Johansen co-integration tests were carried out to examine the existence of long-run relationship on the spot, Japanese and South Korean LNG prices. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillip-Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) unit root tests were conducted first before proceeding to the co-integration tests. The results showed that Asian LNG spot prices did not have price linkage for monthly averages of Japanese and South Korean LNG prices. The analyses also indicated that Taiwan LNG markets move together with Asian LNG spot markets. As a conclusion, the results inferred that supply dependency on LNG spot cargoes governed the price linkage among these Asian LNG markets. The use of gas indexed LNG price mechanism did not reflect the economic fundamentals in Asia-Pacific Basin.
 JEL Classification: Q41Keywords: Price linkage, Johansen co-integration, augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillip-Perron, and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin, unit root tests, Far East Asian LNG spot prices, LNG spot and short-term cargoes, long-term contracts, spot prices, energy: demand and supply, prices
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Wicks, Frank. "The Oil Age." Mechanical Engineering 131, no. 08 (2009): 42–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2009-aug-6.
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This article focuses on the Oil Age, which began 150 years ago in Pennsylvania and forecasts suggest that it has only few decades left for extinction. In today’s world, much of the fire comes from petroleum, which was first extracted from the ground for commercial purposes 150 years ago. Whale oil was prized for best light and low soot, but production peaked in the 1840s. This was the decade when Herman Melville sailed on a whaling ship, which inspired Moby Dick. The modern Oil Age can be traced to a well near Oil Creek in the northwestern Pennsylvania community of Titusville, where an enterprise managed by Edwin Drake discovered petroleum on August 27, 1859. It was not the first strike of oil in history, but it was the first that intended to exploit oil commercially as fuel. The petrochemical industry that uses mostly oil and natural gas for feedstock started at the beginning of the 20th century in the form of fertilizers and synthetic plastics and polymers. Today our vehicles have better tires that have resulted from using synthetic polymers rather than natural rubber from trees.
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Shastri, Shruti, and Swati Shastri. "Exchange rate interest rate linkages in India: an empirical investigation." Journal of Financial Economic Policy 8, no. 4 (2016): 443–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-06-2015-0038.
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Purpose The purpose of the paper is to examine the linkages between exchange rate and interest rate in India using quarterly data from Q1 of 1996 to Q4 of 2014. Design/methodology/approach Stationarity properties of data are checked using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Dickey–Fuller test with GLS de-trending (DF-GLS) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests and Perron’s unit root test with structural breaks. Johansen Juselius and Gregory Hansen tests are applied to assess cointegration, and block exogeneity test is used to detect causality among variables. Findings The study finds long-run relationship among interest rate, rupee–dollar exchange rate, capital flows, intervention, inflation differential, money supply differentials, output differentials and trade-balance differentials. However, the interest rate does not explain movements in the exchange rate, directly and indirectly, via capital flows. Intervention by the Central Banks to stabilize exchange rate does not have implications for movements in interest rate. Research limitations/implications The study finds capital flows to be insensitive with respect to interest rates and hence thwarts International Monetary Fund ’s (IMF) claim of using interest rates as a tool to stabilize exchange rate. The much-debated conflict between exchange-rate stabilization and control over interest rates also does not hold up to the empirical reality of India. Originality/value The study augments the existing literature by taking into account the problem of structural break in the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate. Three measures of interest rate are used to assess the robustness of results adding to their credibility compared to previous studies.
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Wallace, Frederick H., Gary L. Shelley, and Luis Fernando Cabrera Castellanos. "La paridad de poder de compra en México (1930-1960)." El Trimestre Económico 78, no. 311 (2011): 675. http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v78i311.46.
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Empleamos una serie de datos no explotados anteriormente para calcular el tipo de cambio real respecto al dólar para México durante 1930.01-1960.12 a fin de probarla paridad de poder de compra (PPC). Los resultados iniciales de la prueba de Dickey-Fuller aumentada (DFA) muestran un débil apoyo para la PPC. La prueba de Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell (KSS), con otra hipótesis de reversión no lineal a la media, muestra bastante apoyo para la PPC. Sin embargo, encontramos que los residuos de estas pruebas presentan no normalidad o heteroscedasticidad. Usandoel enfoque de wild bootstrap, calculamos los valores críticos de la distribución empírica de los residuos y reevaluamos los estadísticos de prueba empleando estos nuevos valores críticos. Concluimos que hay evidencia de ajuste no lineal a la PPC para 1930.01-1951.12, pero esta evidencia no se mantiene durante 1952.01-1960.12, el periodo de sustitución de importaciones en México.
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Jorge, Ricardo Reolon, Julio F. B. Facó, and Alexandre Andrade Acácio. "A transmissão de risco de crédito em cadeia de suprimentos." Revista Gestão & Tecnologia 17, no. 2 (2017): 134–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2017.v17i2.1105.
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O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar a potencial transmissão de risco de crédito entre o comércio e a indústria na cadeia brasileira de calçados de couro. Para tal utilizaram-se as médias mensais da probabilidade de inadimplência de empresas do período de janeiro de 2008 a julho de 2013. Análises de séries temporais, testes de raiz unitária de Dickey Fuller Aumentado (ADF) e de Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt e Shin (KPSS), teste de cointegração de Johansen, modelo vetorial de correção de erros (VECM), causalidade de Granger, decomposição de erros da variância e função de resposta de impulso foram utilizados. Os resultados mostraram a existência de uma transmissão unidirecional do risco – da indústria para o comércio, bem como seu equilíbrio de longo prazo, confirmando a relevância da análise do risco de crédito das empresas em um contexto ampliado e que inclua os demais elos das cadeias de suprimentos.
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Xaba, Diteboho, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke, Johnson Arkaah, and Charlemagne Pooe. "Modeling South African Banks closing stock prices: a Markov-Switching Approach." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 8, no. 1(J) (2016): 36–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v8i1(j).1204.
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In this paper, we provide evidence that the five variables used in the study were nonlinear in nature, while finding a better Markov-switching model. The study used dailydata obtained from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period from January 2010 to December 2012. An extension of Markov Switching with autoregressive model was used for empirical analysis. Prior to using this model, the series were tested for nonlinear unit root with modified Kapetanois-Shin-Snell nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test which successfully provided positive results.Other preliminary tests selected the first lag as optimal and confirmed that stock prices may switch between two regimes. Further empirical findings proved that stock prices can be successfully modelled with Markov Switching Autoregressive model of order one. First National bank was found to have 99.64% longer stock price stability if adjustments regards tofinancialpolicies are made. Capitec Bank was the least favoured among the banks.
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Dinç, Dilek Temiz, Aytaç Gökmen, and Seda Soygür. "Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Exportation of Turkey and its Contribution to the Economic Growth." International Journal of Sustainable Economies Management 7, no. 3 (2018): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijsem.2018070101.
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Economic growth is indispensable for the development of a country and welfare of its citizens. Economic activities can be improved with the enhancement of business sectors within its structure. Furthermore, exportation is a substantial means of reinforcing economic growth. In this research, the correlation between the fresh fruit & vegetable exportation and the economic growth of the Republic of Turkey is examined. Certain econometric methods as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Unit Root test, Phillips-Perron (PP) Unit Root test, Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, Shin (KPSS) Unit Root test, Vector Auto-regression Analysis (VAR), Co-integration Analysis, Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse-response Functions and Variance Decomposition Analysis are employed to research the correlation for the 2004 Q1-2015 Q4 period. It was concluded that the exportation of fresh fruits and vegetables have a favorable contribution to the economic growth of the Republic of Turkey in the long-run.
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Avşar, Diyar, Dilek Temiz, and Aytaç Gökmen. "The Effect of Technological Development on Renewable Energy." Journal of Comparative Asian Development 21, no. 1 (2025): 1–28. https://doi.org/10.4018/jcad.367696.
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Renewable energies have an essential role in the reduction of external dependency of countries by meeting their energy needs from domestic resources, sustainable energy use as a result of diversification of resources and minimizing the damage to the environment from energy consumption. The study aims to measure technological developments' impact on Turkey's renewable energy production. Therefore, this study uses annual time series data on Turkey from 1980-2022 to investigate the causal link between technology and renewable energy production. This study applies Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) (1981), Phillips-Perron (PP) (1988), Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) (1992) and Ng-Perron (2001) tests for data analysis. In the long run, it has been found that there is a significant positive relationship between technological development and renewable energy; in addition, it has been found that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between renewable energy production and economic growth in the short term.
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Can, Berrak Erkumru, Dilek Temiz Dinç, and Aytaç Gökmen. "The Issue of Logistics and Its Correlation to Economic Growth in Turkey." International Journal of Applied Logistics 11, no. 1 (2021): 66–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijal.2021010105.
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Logistics is a considerable issue for the development of a state and its economy. Logistics is involved the forward and backward flows of goods and services from the point of production and point of consumption, and it is considerable for the development of the economy of a country. Yet, the aim of this paper is to review the correlation between the logistics sector of the Turkish Republic and its correlation to economic growth by employing Augmented Dickey Fuller-ADF, Phillips-Perron (PP), Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, Shin (KPSS), Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock Point Optimal, and Ng-Perron unit root tests. As a result, there is a bidirectional positive causality between logistics sector and economic growth in the long-term, but there is no causality for short term. Moreover, the novelty of this paper is that it is the most up-to-date study to research logistics and its correlation to economics in Turkey.
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Md., Atiqur Rahman, and Khalid Hassan Md. "Exploring the Nexus between Domestic Consumption of Milled Rice (DCM) and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh." International Journal of Science and Business 17, no. 1 (2022): 21–30. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7161001.
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Using annual data from 1960 to 2014, the aim of the current investigation is to evaluate the link between Bangladesh's GDP and domestic consumption of milled rice (DCM). In this study, the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS), Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock (ERS), and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were implemented to observe the stationarity of the variables. Next, the causal link is established using the Granger causality (GC) test, and the long-term association between the study’s variables is evaluated using the Johansen cointegration test. The GC test indicates that there is bidirectional causation, the Johansen co-integration test indicates that there is no long-term association between the variables, and there is no unit root between the variables, according to the experimental results of the stationary test. Therefore, the domestic consumption of milled rice (DCM) and GDP do not cointegrate over the long run.
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Usman, Muhammad Idris, Tasi’u Musa, and Auwalu Ibrahim. "ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELS IN FORECASTING INTERNALLY GENERATED REVENUE OF KADUNA STATE." FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES 9, no. 6 (2025): 193–201. https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2025-0906-3666.
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Internally generated revenue (IGR) is an important source of revenue that can be used to fund public services and infrastructure projects. Accurate forecasting of IGR is essential for effective budgeting and financial planning. This study assessed the performance of ARIMA and ARFIMA models in forecasting internally generated revenue of Kaduna State. The study uses monthly IGR data from January 2003 to December 2023. The stationarity of the data was assessed using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests. The findings showed that both ARIMA and ARFIMA models perform well in forecasting IGR, but ARFIMA model outperforms ARIMA model in terms of mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The generated forecast values for 24 months using the model revealed that out-sample IGR forecasts fluctuated (decreasing and increasing). Thus, the study recommends the use of ARFIMA model for forecasting IGR in Kaduna State for better revenue planning and economic policy formulation.
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Bhowmik, Debesh. "Asymmetry of Wealth and Income Inequality on GDP Growth Rate in India." Lumbini Journal of Business and Economics 13, no. 1 (2025): 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3126/ljbe.v13i1.80252.
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Purpose: The study examines to test asymmetry of income and wealth inequality on GDP growth rate in India during 1995-2023 through NARDL model. Methods: The paper applied Shin et al. (2014) model to estimate asymmetry in NARDL model, applied Dicky and Fuller (1979) model for unit root test, applied Breusch-Pagan model (1979) to test the serial correlation and heteroscedasticity tests. Stability test was done by following Page (1954). Symmetry test was applied by using Wald test (1943). The data on income inequality and wealth inequality were collected from the World Inequality Data Lab and data on GDP growth rate were collected from the World Bank. Results: The paper finds that positive and negative changes of cumulative dynamic multipliers of both income and wealth inequality impact on GDP growth favourably and adversely. Positive and negative responses diverge away from positive and negative long run limits and asymmetry lines of wealth and income inequality have no convergence. Cointegration of wealth and income inequality have negative impacts on GDP growth rate. Conclusion: NARDL model can help policy makers to conduct fiscal and monetary policy and other welfare measures in both short run and long run to ameliorate inequalities towards sustainable GDP growth rate. The model can justify how positive and negative responses of asymmetries in short and long run affect GDP growth.
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Ayyubova, N. S. "On the Measurement of Cointegration Relations Between the Indicators of the Time Series of the Current Account of the Balance of Payments and GDP (On the Example of the Republic of Azerbaijan)." Voprosy statistiki 29, no. 5 (2022): 35–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2022-29-5-35-45.
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The article solves the problem of constructing an econometric model (based on time series of macroeconomic indicators) that reflects the relationship between changes in the current account of the balance of payments and GDP dynamics (on the example of the Republic of Azerbaijan).In order to assess the correctness of the application of mathematical and statistical methods for analyzing the impact of foreign economic activity on the final results of the country's economic activity, the constructed model was tested. So, to test the hypotheses about the normal distribution of the series, the Jarque–Bera test, the augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF), the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test were used, and histograms and correlograms were constructed.In the process of studying the time series of the indicators under consideration, their non-stationarity was revealed both according to the results of descriptive statistics, the Jarque–Bera test, histograms, plots of the sample autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and according to the Dickey–Fuller test. The transition to absolute increments, that is, to the first differences, was applied. In addition, the Johansen test was performed to identify cointegration relationships. Based on its results, when comparing linear and quadratic trends with similar characteristics, a linear one was chosen, indicating the presence of a cointegration relationship. After carrying out the Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue tests, an alternative hypothesis about the presence of one cointegration vector was accepted.The results obtained allow us to conclude that the relationship between the indicators of the current account of the balance of payments and Azerbaijan's GDP is of a long-term nature. They can also serve as a basis for building an error correction model.
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Akça, Tacinur. "The Effects of Energy Consumption and Foreign Direct Investments on Economic Growth in Türkiye: Fourier-Shin Cointegration Test." TESAM Akademi Dergisi 12, no. 1 (2025): 457–79. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.1387796.
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The aim of this study is to explain the impact of shocks in foreign direct investments and per capita energy consumption on real growth shocks in Türkiye between 1970 and 2015. For this purpose, it is planned to evaluate the temporary and permanent effects of the variables on economic growth. To the cointegrated relationship between the variables the Fourier-Shin cointegration test; to determine the stationarity, Augmented Dickey Fuller- Becker, Enders and Lee Fourier KPSS stationarity tests were used. The long-run and short-run coefficients were estimated using the dynamic least squares method (DOLS). According to the findings of the analysis, in the long run, a 1% increase in energy consumption increases economic growth by 0.04%, while a 1% increase in foreign direct investment increases economic growth by 1.6%. In the short run, a 1% increase in FDI increases economic growth by 0.7%. FDI plays a key role for Türkiye's economic growth both in the long and short run. On the other hand, Türkiye needs more permanent energy policies that will cover the long-term rather than short-term energy policies.
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Tanaya, Olivia, and Suyanto Suyanto. "The Causal Nexus Between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach." Periodica Polytechnica Social and Management Sciences 30, no. 1 (2022): 57–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3311/ppso.16799.
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The nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth has long been among the most debated issues in macroeconomics. Some studies find a positive link between the two factors, but others find no evidence. This current research fills the gap by analysing the causal nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Indonesia for the period 1970-2018. Indonesia as a developing country is one of the largest recipients of FDI flow; hence the study on the impact of FDI on the economic growth is very much important. This current research employs a contemporary time-series procedure, involving several unit-root tests namely Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS), and Lee-Strazicich (LS), an Auto-Regressive-Distributed-Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing method for cointegration, and Granger causality test. The findings provide evidence of long-run and short-run causal direction from GDP to FDI. In contrast, FDI generates only a short-run relationship on GDP. The Granger causality test confirms the finding in ARDL that there is a unidirectional causality running from GDP to FDI.
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Theng Hue, Hui, Jing Lin Ng, Yuk Feng Huang, and Yi Xun Tan. "Evaluation of temporal variability and stationarity of potential evapotranspiration in Peninsular Malaysia." Water Supply 22, no. 2 (2021): 1360–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2021.343.
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Abstract Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) functions as an indicator to estimate the amount of water loss to the atmosphere. Over the years, global climate change has eventually led to a change of PET capacity and this has affected the agricultural sector and water resource management. The objective of this study was to determine the best PET estimation method as well as to carry out a trend analysis and stationarity test of PET in Peninsular Malaysia. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator were applied for the trend analysis while the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test were applied for the stationarity test. The findings showed that Pulau Langkawi and Kuantan stations exhibited increasing trends while Bayan Lepas station exhibited decreasing trends for the daily, monthly, and annual PET time series. The daily, monthly, and annual PET time series at Bayan Lepas, Ipoh, Subang and Muadzam Shah stations were found to be stationary. Overall, the PET trend was found to be higher in the coastal regions and stationary in the mountainous region.
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Imran, Muhammad, Xiangyang Liu, Shah Saud, et al. "The non-linear relationship between globalization, financial development and energy consumption: Evidence from BRICS economies." PLOS ONE 18, no. 12 (2023): e0293890. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293890.
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In the era of globalization, financial development plays a key role in socioeconomic and environmental development. However, its adverse consequences on human life, environmental hazards, and high energy consumption cannot be ignored. Thus, this study investigates the non-linear relationship between globalization, financial development, and energy consumption for BRICS economies. In doing so, we have applied second-generation tests to identify cross-sectional dependence in the data. Cross-sectional augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and Cross-sectional Im-Pesaran Shin (CIPS) have been performed to find the stationary level of variables. The long-term equilibrium link between the investigated variables has been established in continuance using the Westerlund Cointegration test. The Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression (DSUR) indicates that U-shaped relationships exist for financial development and globalization with energy consumption. Conversely, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship exist between economic growth and energy consumption in BRICS. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test findings show that a unidirectional link runs from energy consumption to financial development, economic growth to energy consumption, and globalization towards energy usage. Important policy implications have also been discussed.
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Makina, Daniel. "Mean reversion and predictability of remittances." International Journal of Social Economics 41, no. 12 (2014): 1209–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-02-2014-0038.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictability of remittances in individual developing countries. It achieves this objective by testing for mean reversion (i.e. stationarity) in the monthly remittance series reported to the World Bank by 21 developing countries. Design/methodology/approach – Unit root tests on remittance time series are undertaken using three tests – the augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the Phillip-Peron test and the Kwiatkowshi, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin test. Stationarity of series in levels would indicate mean reversion and predictability of remittances. Findings – The paper finds significant evidence of mean reversion and hence predictability in remittance inflows in 17 developing countries. Practical implications – Remittance inflows, which have become an important source of external finance for many developing countries, are not random flows but a stable and predictable stream of financial flows. Originality/value – Prior research has focused on volatility of remittances in comparison with other capital flows and then inferred stability from them having lower volatility. Using available monthly data, this paper is the first to directly test for mean reversion and hence predictability of remittances.
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Shanmugalingam, Praveen, Ahashraaj Shanmuganeshan, Abinaya Manorajan, Mathusany Kugathasan, and Geethma Yahani Pathirana. "Does e-commerce really matter on international trade of Asian countries: Evidence from panel data." PLOS ONE 18, no. 4 (2023): e0284503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284503.
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Over the decades, technology has become an essential indicator to actively participate in the economic growth of nations. The usage of technology and e-commerce had created a new pathway to improve trade in Asian countries. This study seeks to verify the linkage between e-commerce and international trade. The annual data for panel data regression analysis were collected from the World Bank covering 38 Asian countries for 11 years, from 2010 to 2020. This study applied a set of estimation procedures such as descriptive statistic, correlation matrix, stationary test (Levin–Lin–Chu test, Breitung test, Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Harris–Tzavalis and Im–Pesaran–Shin test), Kao cointegration test, autocorrelation test and heteroskedasticity test. The two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator was employed for dynamic panel data analysis. Empirical findings show that e-commerce significantly impacts the international trade of Asian countries. Governments of Asian countries should employ policies related to telecommunication technologies for e-commerce improvement and realize/ reap potential benefits from international trade.
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Abugwu, Chimezie O’Brian, Keghter Kelvin Kur, Henry Chimaobi Urama, and Chidozie Sunday Abbah. "Loan performance and lending rate: Testing the existence of adverse selection in the Nigerian credit market." African Social Science and Humanities Journal 3, no. 3 (2022): 68–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.57040/asshj.v3i3.146.
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Leaning on the loan pricing theory, this study provided empirical proof of the existence of adverse selection in the Nigerian credit market using the interrelation between the lending rate and non-performing loans as a decision factor. The paper employed Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) for stationarity tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Test for cointegration and an ARDL model for the regression analyses using quarterly data. The results of the analyses showed a positive and consequential link connecting non-performing loans and lending rates, proving the existence of adverse selection in the Nigerian credit market in the short-run and long-run. Based on the results, the study recommends that the apex bank implement a price ceiling in the credit market. Banks and other financial institutions should properly define their lending rates given their cost of funds and other operational expenses. And hence, carefully select viable borrowers from the credit market that suit the bank’s credit policy rather than adjust the lending rate up to compensate for higher risk.
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Abdullah, Shadab. "VALIDATING STATIONARITY AS AN ANTECEDENT TO STUDYING THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON BANKEX VALUES." Indian Journal of Economics and Business 20, no. 2 (2021): 511–21. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5410699.
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Abstract: The time series data were experimented for Unit-Root. This test normally conducted to ascertain the time series stationarity and to agree on the array of assimilation of the variables. It is obligatory to conduct the Unit-Root test for the rationale that the trouble of variables with non-stationary producing spurious or meaningless effects due to the occurrence of trend in the data series. This testing procedure is completed by means of the Unit-Root testing methodology. In this paper stationarity assessed for the data collected for the purpose of studying the impact of exchange rate instability on stock prices of banking organizations recorded in the BSE (BSE Bankex) for the data collected from April 2010 to March 2020. To decide the nearness of Unit-Root in the time series data, Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests are used. The results reveal that the data collected are said to be stationary. This stationarity status of the data could help in validating the results on significant effect on the stock index values of BSE Bankex.
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Chukwudi, Umeh, and Akamobi Anthony. "Foreign Portfolio Investment Flow and Nigerian Stock Exchange Market." Journal of Policy and Development Studies 18, no. 1 (2025): 62–82. https://doi.org/10.4314/jpds.v18i1.5.
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This study examined the influence of foreign portfolio investment on the Nigerian stock market from 1986 to 2023. The analysis employed Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin unit root tests, together with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and the ARDL technique. The research findings revealed that trade openness and gross domestic investment has a positive and significant impact on the Nigerian stock market. Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) indicators, such as the currency rate, interest rate, and inflation rate, negatively affect the stock market. Gross domestic savings have little to no significant effect on the stock market. Again, Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), gross domestic savings, currency rate, and interest rate positively influence Nigeria's economic growth. Gross domestic investment has a negligible and adverse effect on economic growth. Finally, the inflation rate significantly harms Nigeria's economic growth. Consequently, it is recommended that the government enhance and uphold its current policies on foreign portfolio investment. Implementing suitable policies is crucial to attract foreign investors to local financial products.
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Soyebi, Olusola Johnson, and A. Umobong Asian. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria 1970-2022: ARDL APPROACH." GPH-International Journal of Business Management 07, no. 06 (2024): 87–106. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12759628.
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The study examined the effect of public sector expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1970-2022 based on data obtain from central bank annual bulletin and world bank and using auto regressive distributive Lag to determine the short run and long run effects of the variable of study. Kernel test was conducted for normality of distribution of data set. the test for stationarity of the data series was performed using two different methods namely, the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) procedure. While the ADF test is an indirect process of testing for unit roots, the KPSS tests are more direct in terms of the null hypothesis. Recurrent expenditure and total expenditure have significant positive long run impacts on gross domestic product in Nigeria, the effect of capital expenditure is insignificant. Long run effects of public expenditure on economic growth is generally different from the long run effects. It was recommended that government should increase spending in recurrent expenditure to boost economic growth
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Mohsin, Muhammad, Mad Nasir Shamsudin, Khalid Mahsan Alshammary, and Muddassar Sarfraz. "Exploring the Nexus between CO2 Emissions, Trade, and Sustainable Economic Growth: A Novel NARDL Approach." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 14, no. 2 (2024): 357–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15020.
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This study investigates the nexus between CO2 emission, trade, Gross domestic product (GDP), and tourism in Pakistan during 1990-2019. We examined the asymmetric relationship between CO2 emission, international trade, Gross domestic product (GDP), and international tourism number of arrivals in Pakistan. Data Stationarity has been tested using the Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF), Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS), and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests for unit roots. We used the NARDL technique. Then a Granger Causality helped estimate the relationship between these environmental variables. If there is an asymmetric association between these variables, we estimate the non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag, which is the most applicable econometric estimate. The ARDL technique can potentially explore the dynamic nexus between CO2 emission, tourism, GDP, and trade. Our findings suggest a dynamic relationship between tourism, trade, CO2 emission, and GDP from Pakistan's perspective. The outcomes reveal that negative and positive shocks to trade, GDP, and tourism affect CO2 emissions in the short and long term. The Granger Causality findings also determined that causality is directed from Tourism toward CO2 emission, while unidirectional causality was found between CO2 emission and tourism. In this study, the graphs of the CUSUM and CUSUMQ determined the functional stability of the established relationship. This indicates that this model is a suitable and valuable strategy tool. Therefore, an increase or decrease in the macroeconomic series will cause variation in carbon emissions in Pakistan in the long -term. The finding benefits macro-level policymakers and will provide important insight for the relevant stakeholders.
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AĞAN, Büşra. "Teknolojik Başarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel ARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıt." Journal of Yaşar University 17, no. 66 (2022): 367–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1022589.
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In recent times, technological innovations among nations are the most powerful instrument for higher economic growth rates and development. A higher level of achievement in the diffusion/adoption of technology can create more effective economic growth. Given this motivation, the study aims to examine the impact of technological achievements on economic growth, gross capital formation, medium and high-tech exports, and employment in chosen 72 countries over the period of 1990 - 2020. The unit root tests of the cross-section augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) test of Pesaran and also covariate Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) test of Hansen, the Pedroni cointegration test, and then Pesaran ARDL model has been applied in the analysis of data. The ARDL model results reveal a statistically significant causality and positive relationships between the technology achievement index and GDP growth, gross capital formation, medium and high-tech exports, and employment significance at 1 percent level in the long run according to Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Consequently, technological innovations are linked with economic growth and macroeconomic factors, that is to say, to get higher growth needs to grow up adaptation of technology and also to produce and trade technology-specific products.
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Amaefula, C. G. "A Simple Integration Order Test: An Alternative to Unit Root Testing." European Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 2, no. 3 (2021): 77–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejmath.2021.2.3.22.
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The paper introduces order of integration test (OIT) which serves as a simple alternative to unit root test built generally using auxiliary autoregressive AAR(3) model. The parametric boundary conditions necessary and sufficient for testing the null hypothesis that the non-stationary variable under test is integrated order zero I(0) were estimated via generalized least squares (GLS). The decision on the hypothesis is evaluated using t-statistic. The test procedure was applied to a simulated non-stationary series (y1) of sample size n = 2000 and a known non-stationary time series data (y2) with two unit roots. The results showed that y1 is integrated order one (I(1)) and y2 is I(2). These results were confirmed by Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF); Phillips-Perron (PP); Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS); Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock Point Optimal (ERS) and Ng and Perron (NP) unit root tests. For logarithm transformed variable, the divergent opinions of other unit root tests in clear-cut solution of the integrated order of such variable makes the new test procedure a better alternative. Nevertheless, the simplicity and aptness of the integration order test give it leverage over conventional methods of unit root test.
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Ali, Sajjad, Li Gucheng, Liu Ying, Muhammad Ishaq, and Tariq Shah. "The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis." Energies 12, no. 24 (2019): 4644. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12244644.
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This study aims to explore the casual relationship between agricultural production, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to examine the relationship between agricultural production, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions using time series data from 1960 to 2014. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips–Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests are used to check the stationarity of variables. The results show both short-run and long-run relationships between agricultural production, gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. From the short-run estimates, it is found that a 1% increase in barley and sorghum production will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 3% and 4%, respectively. The pairwise Granger causality test shows unidirectional causality of cotton, milled rice, and sorghum production with carbon dioxide emissions. Due to the aforementioned cause, it is essential to manage the effects of carbon dioxide emissions on agricultural production. Appropriate steps are needed to develop agricultural adaptation policies, improve irrigation facilities and introduce high-yielding and disease-resistant varieties of crops to ensure food security in the country.
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Anagun, Adeyemi Michael, and Gbenro Matthew Sokunbi. "A disaggregated ARDL analysis of capital formation on economic growth in Nigeria: evidence from the endogenous growth model." Ekonomika a spoločnosť 25, no. 2 (2024): 5–24. https://doi.org/10.24040/eas.2024.25.2.5-24.
Full textAbstract:
This study has investigated the disaggregated impact of capital formation on economic growth in Nigeria over the periods of 1990 to 2021 sourcing its data from the 2022 Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and 2023 World Development Indicators. Specifically, it examined how, and to what extent, gross capital formation, government recurrent expenditures on education and health, foreign direct investment, gross domestic savings, and domestic credit to private sectors have impacted economic growth in Nigeria. It used the Phillip-Perron, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin, and the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to ascertain the order of integration among the series. Consequently, through the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag bound testing technique, the study found that in the long run, the disaggregated physical and human capital formation had a significant positive influence on economic growth. In the short-run, however, government recurrent expenditures on education, foreign direct investment, and domestic credit to private sectors had a significant impact on economic growth while other variables did not significantly cause economic growth. Thus, in conclusion, the study suggests policy recommendations to boost human capital through education, health, and credit access, while addressing high interest rates.
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Wang, Qiying, Yan-Xia Lin, and Chandra M. Gulati. "THE INVARIANCE PRINCIPLE FOR LINEAR PROCESSES WITH APPLICATIONS." Econometric Theory 18, no. 1 (2002): 119–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466602181072.
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Let Xt be a linear process defined by Xt = [sum ]k=0∞ ψkεt−k, where {ψk, k ≥ 0} is a sequence of real numbers and {εk, k = 0,±1,±2,...} is a sequence of random variables. Two basic results, on the invariance principle of the partial sum process of the Xt converging to a standard Wiener process on [0,1], are presented in this paper. In the first result, we assume that the innovations εk are independent and identically distributed random variables but do not restrict [sum ]k=0∞ |ψk| < ∞. We note that, for the partial sum process of the Xt converging to a standard Wiener process, the condition [sum ]k=0∞ |ψk| < ∞ or stronger conditions are commonly used in previous research. The second result is for the situation where the innovations εk form a martingale difference sequence. For this result, the commonly used assumption of equal variance of the innovations εk is weakened. We apply these general results to unit root testing. It turns out that the limit distributions of the Dickey–Fuller test statistic and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) test statistic still hold for the more general models under very weak conditions.