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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'District heating load prediction'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 5 June 2025

Last updated: 2 August 2025

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1

Bergentz, Tobias. "Identifying symptoms of fault in District Heating Substations : An investigation in how a predictive heat load software can help with fault detection." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för tillämpad fysik och elektronik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-174442.

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District heating delivers more than 70% of the energy used for heating and domestichot water in Swedish buildings. To stay competitive, district heating needs toreduce its losses and increase capabilities to utilise low grade heat. Finding faultysubstations is one way to allow reductions in supply temperatures in district heatingnetworks, which in turn can help reduce the losses. In this work three suggestedsymptoms of faults: abnormal quantization, drifting and anomalous values, are investigatedwith the help of hourly meter data of: heat load, volume flow, supplyand return temperatures from d

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2

Rodriguez, German Darío Rivas. "Decentralized Architecture for Load Balancing in District Heating Systems." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Sektionen för datavetenskap och kommunikation, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3329.

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Context. In forthcoming years, sustainability will lead the development of society. Implementation of innovative systems to make the world more sustainable is becoming one of the key points for science. Load balancing strategies aim to reduce economic and ecological cost of the heat production in district heating systems. Development of a decentralized solution lies in the objective of making the load balancing more accessible and attractive for the companies in charge of providing district-heating services. Objectives. This master thesis aims to find a new alternative for implementing decentr

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3

Sultan, Sahira. "Cost Evaluation of Building Space Heating; District Heating and Heat Pumps." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för ekonomi, samhälle och teknik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-37137.

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Climate change and energy efficiency has become a matter of concern in recent times; therefore, energy efficiency of buildings has drawn major attention. According to the European Commission, EU countries must improve energy efficiency of existing buildings by retrofitting and renovating the buildings. A case study of a renovated commercial building is considered in this degree project. A model of the building is developed in the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy (IDA ICE) software. The model is then augmented to include renovations in the building. Further, the model is simulated in IDA ICE befor

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4

Provatas, Spyridon. "An Online Machine Learning Algorithm for Heat Load Forecasting in District Heating Systems." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Institutionen för datalogi och datorsystemteknik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3475.

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Context. Heat load forecasting is an important part of district heating optimization. In particular, energy companies aim at minimizing peak boiler usage, optimizing combined heat and power generation and planning base production. To achieve resource efficiency, the energy companies need to estimate how much energy is required to satisfy the market demand. Objectives. We suggest an online machine learning algorithm for heat load forecasting. Online algorithms are increasingly used due to their computational efficiency and their ability to handle changes of the predictive target variable over t

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5

Poutiainen, Zacharias. "Short-Term Heat Load Forecasting in District Heating Systems : A Comparative Study of Various Forecasting Methods." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-265670.

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Short term heat load forecasts are vital for optimal production planning and commitment of generation units. The generation utility also bares a balance responsibility toward the electricity market as a result of CHP generation. Sub-optimal load forecasts can lead to high costs relating to unit commitment, fuel usage and balancing costs. This thesis presents the empirical comparison of various models for 24h heat load forecasting. Five methods were investigated including four supervised machine learning algorithms; neural networks, support vector machines, random forests and boosted decision t

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6

Eriksson, Andreas. "Metoder för lastprioritering i fjärrvärmecentraler." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Fasta tillståndets fysik, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-139466.

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A problem in the field of district heating is the oil burners needed to provide power when a peak load occurs. One possible way of reducing the needed amount of oil is to reduce the power demand for space heating in the district-heating substations when the need for district heating water exceeds a certain limit. This can be done by use of a locally working controller function. In this Thesis the options concerning load priority are evaluated. To evaluate the potential for using controller functions concerning peak load priority an experiment was brought out in a chosen district-heating substa

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7

Landelius, Erik, and Magnus Åström. "DISTRICT HEAT PRICE MODEL ANALYSIS : A risk assesment of Mälarenergi's new district heat price model." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för ekonomi, samhälle och teknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-44097.

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Energy efficiency measures in buildings and alternative heating methods have led to a decreased demand for district heating (DH). Furthermore, due to a recent increase in extreme weather events, it is harder for DH providers to maintain a steady production leading to increased costs. These issues have led DH companies to change their price models. This thesis investigated such a price model change, made by Mälarenergi (ME) on the 1st of August 2018. The aim was to compare the old price model (PM1) with the new price model (PM2) by investigating the choice of base and peak loads a customer can

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8

Buddee, Ingrid. "Utveckling av lastmodell för Uppsala fjärrvärmenät." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Avdelningen för systemteknik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-229937.

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The aim of this study was to develop a load prognosis model for Uppsala district heating system to be used as a tool for heat production optimization. The methodwas to build three models for the different customer types; housing, industry andoffices and then scale them for the total system using data from Uppsala districtheating system. The heat load consists of two parts, one that is temperaturedependent and one that is dependent of the social behavior of the customers. Thetemperature part was modelled with an ARX model using an outdoor temperatureprognosis as input signal. The social behavio

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9

Svensson, Kenny. "Evaluation of a Machine Learning Approach To Heat Prediction." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Institutionen för programvaruteknik och datavetenskap, 2002. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-2753.

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This is a report about machine learning in the field of computer science. The problem handled is prediction of energy consumption in district heating systems. Prediction of energy consumption in district heating systems is a delicate problem because of the social behaviours, weather and distribution time that has to be accounted for. One algorithm is introduced and three different experiments are made to determine if the algorithm is useful. The results from the experiments were good. This report differs in approach to the problem then other reports found in this field. The difference is that

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10

Eriksson, Stina. "Optimering av framledningstemperaturen i ett fjärrvärmenät genom lastmodellering och simulering." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Energisystem och byggnadsteknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-32790.

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I Sverige är fjärrvärme den vanligaste uppvärmningsformen. Vatten värms upp i en fjärrvärmeanläggning och distribueras genom nedgrävda rör i marken, också kallat fjärrvärmenätet. En tillförlitlig energimodell anses vara ett bra och viktigt hjälpmedel för analyser av värmeförluster som uppstår i ett fjärrvärmenät vid distribueringen av det heta vattnet. Sandviken Energis styrning av framledningstemperaturen sker idag utifrån en inställd styrkurva som tar hänsyn till vad det är för utetemperatur. Det var av intresse för studien att jämföra denna styrning med en simulerad framledningstemperatur o

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11

Jönsson, Linnea. "Thermal energy storage systems in an energy company's district heating system : Exploring ways of handling daily and seasonal heat load variations in Höganäs." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Energivetenskap, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-29800.

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12

Eriksson, Niclas. "Predicting demand in districtheating systems : A neural network approach." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Avdelningen för beräkningsvetenskap, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-175082.

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To run a district heating system as efficiently as possible correct unit-commitmentdecisions has to be made and in order to make those decisions a good forecast ofheat demand for the coming planning period is necessary. With a high quality forecastthe need for backup power and the risk for a too high production are lowered. Thisthesis takes a neural network approach to load forecasting and aims to provide asimple, yet powerful, tool that can provide accurate load forecasts from existingproduction data without the need for extensive model building.The developed software is tested using real lif

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13

Strömqvist, Bodil. "Fjärrvärmedriven Absorptionskyla : En ekonomisk undersökning av olika spetslösningar." Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för elektronikkonstruktion, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-42412.

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This independent degree project has been implemented on behalf of FVB Sverige AB in collaboration Sundsvall Energi AB with the initial purpose of mapping manufacturers of hot water driven absorption chillers. After that, several technical solutions are examined to manage the peak load of a theoretical object which cannot produce the cooling power required with only an absorptions chiller, due to limitations in the district heating supply. The market study has shown that the supply of absorption chillers with drive temperatures of 70–90˚C is limited to a few manufacturers. World Energy offers a

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14

Bengtsson, Conny. "Ersättning av fossilt bränsle i värmeproduktion: Pulverbrännare till befintliga oljepannor." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Sektionen för ekonomi och teknik (SET), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-23452.

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Vi står inför en förändring, att minska vårt beroende av fossil energi till förmån för en ökad användning av förnybar energi. Incitament i form av ökade punktskatter på fossilt bränsle påskyndar omställningen för företag till förnybar energi och- eller energieffektivisering av sin produktion. Konsekvensen blir en successivt fördyrad kostnad för produktion av fjärrvärme med eldningsolja till tillverkningsindustrin. Punktskatt på eldningsolja stiger med 41 procent, från 2010 till 2015 för företagen. Att konvertera befintliga oljepannor med träpulverbrännare är en lösning för att hålla produktion

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15

Elofsson, Fredrik. "Optimering av last och produktion i Gävles fjärrvärmenät : Reducering av effekttoppar via värmelagring i byggnader." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Energisystem och byggnadsteknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-29732.

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District heating is today the most common way of providing a building with heat and hot water in Sweden. It is an environmentally friendly product mostly used with renewable fuel. However, at power peaks most companies use production units that are more expensive and worse for the environment and should therefore be avoided as much as possible. This can be done with a method called load management. When a power peak occurs, the heat supply to buildings connected to the district heating system can be temporarily reduced. The heat energy can later be returned when the heat demand is lower. Thank

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16

Nilsson, Daniel. "Fjärrvärmeanslutna passivhus : Fallstudie av värmelaster och innetemperaturer i fyra flerbostadshus." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Sektionen för ekonomi och teknik (SET), 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-17750.

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Intresset kring lågenergibyggnader blir allt större och så kallade passivhus, med god isolering, hög lufttäthet och värmeåtervinning, byggs i allt större utsträckning i Sverige och andra europeiska länder. Vissa frågetecken har dock uppkommit kring inomhusklimatet i husen och risken för både under- och övertemperaturer. En annan viktig aspekt är hur husens egenskaper påverkar värmelasterna och hur detta i sin tur påverkar energiförsörjningssystemet. I detta examensarbete undersöks dessa båda aspekter – värmelastegenskaper och innetemperaturer – i fyra likadana nybyggda flerbostadshus i Falkenb

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17

Berner, Wik Petter. "Värmereglering utifrån byggnadens tidskonstant i en värmetrög fastighet : Prognostiseringar utav värmeenergianvändningen och dess ekonomiska kostnader." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för bygg- energi- och miljöteknik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-28349.

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För att pådriva utvecklingen mot ett mer hållbart Gävle kommer Gävle Energi AB implementera en ny säsongsbaserad kapacitetsmodell ifrån årsskiftet 2019. Som ska skapa ekonomiska incitament för energieffektivisering i fastigheter inom Gävles fjärrvärmenät. Denna studie kartlägger värmeenergianvändningen i en fastighet som riskerar en förhöjd totalkostnad för fjärrvärmen till följd av den nya prismodellen. Målet med studien är att reducera värmeenergianvändningen utan att investera i fastigheten, vilket möjliggörs genom att värmeenergitillförseln till fastigheten regleras. Genom att programmera

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18

Bouraleh, Maryan. "Techno-economic Potential of Customer Flexibility : A Case Study." Thesis, KTH, Energiteknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-278079.

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District heating plays a major role in the Swedish energy system. It is deemed a renewable energy source and is the main provider for multi-family dwellings with 90 %. Although the district heating fuel mix consists of majority renewables, a share of 5 % is provided from fossil fuels. To reduce fossil fuel usage and eradicate CO2-emissions from the district heating system new solutions are sought after. In this project, the potential for shortterm thermal energy storage in buildings is investigated. This concept is referred to as customer flexibility. Demand flexibility is created in the distr

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19

Hallqvist, Karl. "Högtempererat borrhålslager för fjärrvärme." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Naturresurser och hållbar utveckling, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-231586.

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The district heating load is seasonally dependent, with a low load during periods of high ambient temperature. Thermal energy storage (TES) has the potential to shift heating loads from winter to summer, thus reducing cost and environmental impact of District Heat production. In this study, a concept of high temperature borehole thermal energy storage (HT-BTES) together with a pellet heating plant for temperature boost, is presented and evaluated by its technical limitations, its ability to supply heat, its function within the district heating system, as well as its environmental impact and ec

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20

Carvalho, Luís Ferreira. "District heating systems: the effect of building model complexity on heat demand prediction." Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10451/31299.

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Tese de mestrado integrado, Engenharia da Energia e do Ambiente, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2017<br>As tendências recentes da distribuição populacional indicam que a grande maioria cidadãos europeus irá habitar em cidades. A elevada densidade energética característica destes aglomerados faz com que a gestão do fornecimento de energia seja, cada vez mais, uma área de grande responsabilidade, tanto ao nível da segurança energética, como da sua sustentabilidade económica e ambiental. Os edifícios são responsáveis por cerca de 40% da energia final consumida na União Europeia, s

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21

Mohamed, Abdullaahi, Ajdin Zekan, and Alexander Eriksson. "SARIMAX tillförlitlighet vid prediktion av fjärrvärmeförbrukning : En experimentell studie." Thesis, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-25475.

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Huvudsyftet med denna studie är att förstå om ett säsongsmässigt autoregressivt integrerat rörligt genomsnitt (SARIMA) -metod pålitligt kan förutsäga extrem variation i värmelaster för en fjärrvärmestation. Genom extrem variation ser vi på den maximala och minsta värmebelastningen per dag mätt i megawattstimmar. Avhandlingen bygger på standardimplementering av SARIMAX och utför en rutnätsökning efter de mest lämpliga parametrarna. Prognoser kan genereras från tidsserier i syfte att uppskatta förväntad energiförbrukning i en fjärrvärmestation. Frågan som ställs är: Hur tillförlitlig är SARIMAX-

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