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Journal articles on the topic 'Diversionary theory of war'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 27 July 2025

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1

Blomdahl, Mikael. "Diversionary Theory of War and the Case Study Design." Armed Forces & Society 43, no. 3 (2016): 545–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0095327x16651866.

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This article examines President Clinton’s decisions to launch military actions against Iraq in June 1993 and Kosovo in 1999. This study represents an attempt to test the descriptive accuracy and further developing the diversionary theory of war. Using a qualitative framework for diversionary use of force developed by another researcher, Ryan C. Hendrickson, this research examines and compares the two cases in order to determine whether or not these strikes appear to be diversionary in nature. This article generally suggests that empirical support for the diversionary argument in these cases is

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2

Tir, Jaroslav, and Michael Jasinski. "Domestic-Level Diversionary Theory of War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 52, no. 5 (2008): 641–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002708318565.

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정성철. "Diversionary Theory of War: Logic and Evidence." Korean Political Science Review 47, no. 5 (2013): 389–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.18854/kpsr.2013.47.5.018.

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Sergoyan, Henrik, Vahan Martirosyan, and Grigor Bezirganyan. "Azerbaijan and diversionary war theory quantitative analysis." Bulletin of Yerevan University D: International Relations and Political Sciences 13, no. 2 (38) (2022): 73–83. https://doi.org/10.46991/bysu:d/2022.13.2.073.

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The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most intractable interstate in the Post-Soviet region. As such, analysis of the factors underlying the conflict has captured the attention of political scientists and pundits alike. Deemed largely a frozen conflict since the mid-1990s, speculations currently abound concerning reasons behind sporadic and large-scale flare-ups since 2015. One line of reasoning leverages the concept of “diversionary war theory,” which states that interstate warfare is often initiated by the incumbent leadership of at least one party to

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5

Martinez Machain, Carla, and Leo Rosenberg. "Domestic diversion and strategic behavior by minority groups." Conflict Management and Peace Science 35, no. 5 (2016): 427–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894216655461.

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Diversionary war theory states that leaders may initiate an international conflict in order to invoke internal cohesion and distract the public from domestic issues. Recent developments in diversionary literature suggest the possibility that leaders can alternately divert against domestic targets, such as minority groups. Empirical support for domestic diversion, though, has been mixed. In this paper we seek to reconcile this by further examining the different dynamics at play between actors who are faced with diversionary incentives. We suggest that a major reason why we do not observe many c

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Elhan, Nail. "Hezbollah’s Diversionary War in Lebanon: Continuity and Change in the Threat Perception." Journal of Humanity and Society (insan & toplum) 13, no. 3 (2023): 168–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.12658/m0715.

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Hezbollah intervened in the civil war in Syria when the Assad regime was under threat of overthrow. Its intervention caused criticism from Lebanese actors and therefore required the organization to find legitimate foundations upon which to base its involvement. Discourse and rhetoric were the first elements that changed following the organization’s decision to intervene. Hezbollah revised its traditional discourse of security, which refers to Israel as the main threat, in 2013 and added an external enemy, the takfiris, which referred to fundamentalist groups in the civil war, as a new threat.

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Tir, Jaroslav. "Territorial Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict." Journal of Politics 72, no. 2 (2010): 413–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022381609990879.

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8

Lu, Xiaosheng. "Causes of the Falklands War, A Historiography." BCP Education & Psychology 7 (November 7, 2022): 57–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.54691/bcpep.v7i.2608.

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This essay seeks to understand the historical debate around the causes of the Falklands War by exploring, chronologically, three main families of explanations --diversionary strategy, rationalist war, and rally around the flag effect. In separate sections dedicated to each one of these theories, there is an overview of the theory, a detailed explanation of a representative work of that theory, and a brief explanation of the theory's significance to historical debates.

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9

Haynes, Kyle. "Diversionary conflict: Demonizing enemies or demonstrating competence?" Conflict Management and Peace Science 34, no. 4 (2015): 337–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894215593723.

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How do embattled leaders hope to secure their hold on power by initiating conflict abroad? The literature on diversionary war has emphasized two distinct mechanisms by which leaders stand to gain from conflict — the “rally around the flag” and “gambling for resurrection” theories. But despite a massive literature on the subject, these competing theories of diversionary incentives have never been subjected to comparative empirical evaluation. This article seeks to fill this gap. I argue that the rally and gambling theories predict diversionary conflicts to target different types of states. Dive

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10

Gent, Stephen E. "Scapegoating Strategically: Reselection, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Theory of War." International Interactions 35, no. 1 (2009): 1–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03050620802497048.

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11

Barrow, Clyde W. "The Diversionary Thesis and the Dialectic of Imperialism: Charles A. Beard's Theory of American Foreign Policy Revisited." Studies in American Political Development 11, no. 2 (1997): 248–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0898588x00001668.

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In 1916, Charles A. Beard was denouncing Germany as “a danger to civilization” and calling for American participation in World War I on the side of the Entente Allies. Like John Dewey and other social-democrats, Beard saw the Great War as an opportunity to advance the interests of the European working class by breaking “the union of the Hohenzollern military caste and the German masses whose radical leaders are Social Democrats”. Even after the Versailles Treaty, Beard continued to embrace the Wilsonian theme that the Great War had been fought to make the world safe for democracy. However, by

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12

Schenoni, Luis L., Sean Braniff, and Jorge Battaglino. "Was the Malvinas/Falklands a Diversionary War? A Prospect-Theory Reinterpretation of Argentina’s Decline." Security Studies 29, no. 1 (2019): 34–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2020.1693618.

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13

Braimah, Awaisu. "Killing to Cling to Power? The Dilemmas of Israeli Prime Minister." International Journal of Social Science Research and Review 7, no. 3 (2024): 205–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.47814/ijssrr.v7i3.2034.

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Hamas's strategic surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, is not only a military and intelligence failure on the part of Israel, but it also casts doubt on the capacity of the Israeli Prime Minister to provide the security needs of Israelis. What this paper does is explore the complexities and dilemmas of Israel’s war on Gaza despite domestic pressure to halt the Gaza war to enable the release of hostages, the call on the coalition government to account for the needless deaths of Israelis on the fateful October 7, 2023 attack and the growing pressure abroad to respect humanitarian law of

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14

Mukhametov, R. "International sources of the popularity of Russia’s president. Does the «rally around the flag» effect matter?" International Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy 20, no. 3 (2022): 80–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.17994/it.2022.20.3.70.6.

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The article focuses on the popularity of the President of the Russian Federation and the factors that influence the level of his support among the population. It is shown that most of the previous literature was devoted to the study of the influence of such determinants as macroeconomic indicators, the standard of living of citizens, the media, the use of political technologies, etc. The author notes that researchers have begun to mark a certain impact on the rating of national leaders of international events and interstate conflicts. The review of the literature showed that most researchers s

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15

Hocking, Clare. "Early Perspectives of Patients, Practice and the Profession." British Journal of Occupational Therapy 70, no. 7 (2007): 284–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030802260707000703.

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This article draws on an analysis of the British Journal of Occupational Therapy and texts published in England from 1938 to 1951 to describe the ways in which early British occupational therapists perceived themselves and their practice. To give context, the impact of World War II, the medical advances of the time and the profession's overarching goals are outlined. Three themes are presented. First, therapists' use of craft activities, the knowledge that they held about the therapeutic application of craft and the demands of using craft activities in hospital environments are described. The

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16

Khan, Waheed Ahmad, and Muhammad Usman Askari. "WAR AND REGIME SURVIVAL: A CASE STUDY OF THE AFGHAN WAR OF 1980S." Pakistan Journal of Social Research 04, no. 02 (2022): 609–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.52567/pjsr.v4i2.513.

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In traditional terms when we talk about a link between war and regime survival, we find ourselves in the realm of domestic politics. It is well documented that the leaders use diversionary force to exploit the domestic audience. However, in this study, we argue that, depending on their level of dependence on the external sources of power, leaders may also use force to impress upon the external audience to extract moral and material support for the survival of their regimes. Here, we find strong evidence of a link between domestic and external factors in the context of the superpowers and their

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17

Allen, John. "Diversionary war – domestic unrest and international conflict." Defense & Security Analysis 30, no. 2 (2014): 189–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2014.897109.

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18

Holtermann, Helge. "Diversionary Rebel Violence in Territorial Civil War." International Studies Quarterly 63, no. 2 (2019): 215–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqz007.

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19

Williams, Laron K., David J. Brulé, and Michael Koch. "War Voting." Conflict Management and Peace Science 27, no. 5 (2010): 442–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894210379328.

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This article explores the interactive effects of the economy and the use of force on incumbent parties’ electoral performance. Research on the diversionary use of force assumes that leaders (especially democratic leaders) use force abroad to bolster their domestic political fortunes during hard economic times. But other research suggests that crises either lead to removal from office or have no effect on incumbents’ political fortunes. Although a good deal of scholarship assesses the role of the economy on electoral outcomes, no research has explicitly examined the interactive effects between

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20

Goldman, Shlomo O., and Gadi Heimann. "Defeat in Interstate War and the Probability of Political Liberalization." Alternatives: Global, Local, Political 43, no. 4 (2018): 175–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0304375419841248.

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The study examines whether defeat in war increases the probability that states will be involved in an international crisis (as a diversionary policy), enter a process of political liberalization, or alternatively, curtail political rights. More generally, it examines the impact of the leaders’ weakness on their tendency to adopt these different strategies in order to overcome internal unrest. We look at defeat in war as an indicator of the leader’s weakness since we can assume a strong correlation exists between the two. The results showed a significant positive connection to political rights

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21

TARAR, AHMER. "Diversionary Incentives and the Bargaining Approach to War." International Studies Quarterly 50, no. 1 (2006): 169–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2005.00397.x.

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22

McLaughlin Mitchell, Sara, and Clayton L. Thyne. "Contentious Issues as Opportunities for Diversionary Behavior." Conflict Management and Peace Science 27, no. 5 (2010): 461–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894210379329.

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Scholars have long been fascinated by the potential for leaders to engage in diversionary behavior, where leaders use militarized force abroad to distract their publics from various forms of domestic economic and political turmoil. While there is some evidence that diversionary behavior depends on contextual factors such as regime type, opportunities to use force, and interstate rivalry, we do not know whether and how diversionary strategies are used by states to resolve contentious issues. In fact, most diversionary studies compare the initiation of militarized disputes or crises to non-initi

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23

Oakes, Amy. "Diversionary War and Argentina's Invasion of the Falkland Islands." Security Studies 15, no. 3 (2006): 431–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09636410601028354.

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24

Butcher, Charity, and Makda Maru. "Diversionary Tactics and the Ethiopia–Eritrea War (1998–2000)." Small Wars & Insurgencies 29, no. 1 (2017): 68–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2018.1403747.

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25

Kanat, Kilic. "Diversionary Foreign Policy in Authoritarian States: The Use of Multiple Diversionary Strategies by Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War." Journal of Strategic Security 7, no. 1 (2014): 16–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.7.1.2.

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26

Kisangani, Emizet F., and Jeffrey Pickering. "The Dividends of Diversion: Mature Democracies’ Proclivity to Use Diversionary Force and the Rewards They Reap from It." British Journal of Political Science 39, no. 3 (2009): 483–515. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123408000598.

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The diversionary proclivities of democratic and autocratic regimes have been debated in the empirical literature. This new theoretical synthesis on the subject builds upon the insights of the institutional approach, rational choice literature on voting and research on audience costs. It is contended that leaders in mature democracies have more incentive to use diversionary force than leaders in other regimes, and they are more likely to gain domestic political and economic benefits from it. To test this, dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) models are used to ascertain the reciprocal re

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27

Sobek, David. "Rallying Around the Podesta: Testing Diversionary Theory Across Time." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 1 (2007): 29–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343307072178.

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28

Tokdemir, Efe, and Brendan Skip Mark. "When Killers Become Victims: Diversionary War, Human Rights, and Strategic Target Selection." International Interactions 44, no. 2 (2017): 337–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2017.1369412.

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29

Tănase, Mircea. "Paratroopers in the Intelligence Confrontations During the Second World War." International conference KNOWLEDGE-BASED ORGANIZATION 23, no. 1 (2017): 311–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/kbo-2017-0051.

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Abstract Characterised by the capability to rapidly penetrate the enemy disposition, at long distance, by air, using transport aircraft, by parachuting or landing, as well as by own combat capacity, airborne troops could successfully execute a wide range of specific missions, either independently or in cooperation with other units or large units in the land, air or naval forces, to meet the operational and strategic goals. Mention should be made that almost all belligerents in the Second World War successfully employed groups of well-trained fighters, parachuted behind the enemy disposition, t

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30

Berendt, Grzegorz. "Między wrogami i sprzymierzeńcami. Opowieść poleskiego Żyda o latach 1939–1944." Przegląd Historyczno-Wojskowy 22, no. 1 (2021): 207–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.32089/wbh.phw.2021.1(275).0007.

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Before the war, Eleazar Segal lived in the town of Hancewicze in western Polesie (today the Brest Oblast in Belarus). He was involved in the timber trade. After June 22, 1941, he escaped with his wife to the town of Lachowicze. When in 1942 the Germans murdered most of the ghetto prisoners, the Segal family fled to the forest. For the next two years, they fought for survival, with the help of Soviet partisans and then the NKGB diversionary group. Segal documents the activities of the Soviet partisans and their diverse attitudes towards Jews.

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ARQUILLA, JOHN, and MARÍA MOYANO RASMUSSEN. "The Origins of the South Atlantic War." Journal of Latin American Studies 33, no. 4 (2001): 739–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022216x01006198.

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The most widely-accepted views of the origins of the South Atlantic War contend that it arose either out of the Argentine junta's need to divert attention away from a worsening economy or from misperceptions in both London and Buenos Aires. This article argues that the ‘demobilisation’ of Argentine civil society removed the need for a diversionary war; and that the lengthy crisis bargaining that followed in the wake of the ‘grab’ of the Falklands/Malvinas Islands substantially mitigated the impact of any misperceptions. This article advances an alternative to existing theories that explains th

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Lee, Bomi K., Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, Cody J. Schmidt, and Yufan Yang. "Disasters and the dynamics of interstate rivalry." Journal of Peace Research 59, no. 1 (2022): 12–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00223433211063333.

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This article examines how disasters influence conflict dynamics in interstate rivalries. Building on insights from the disaster, rivalry, and diversionary conflict literatures, the authors argue that disasters act as political shocks that disrupt a rivalry relationship. Hostility levels in rivalries are stable over time and shift only through major shocks. While the rivalry literature suggests that some shocks may lead to peace, the authors argue that disaster shocks are more likely to be associated with increased conflict. Disasters often strain the state’s capacity to provide security for it

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33

Wallace, Robert Daniel. "North Korea and diversion: A quantitative analysis (1997–2011)." Communist and Post-Communist Studies 47, no. 2 (2014): 147–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2014.04.004.

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In this research I propose that the concept of diversionary theory provides at least a partial explanation for North Korea’s conflict activities. I examine and analyze the country’s data on diplomatic and military activities from 1997 to 2011 and argue that North Korea’s domestic conditions influence its willingness to engage in external conflict. I also examine the impact of such external influences as UN sanctions, leadership changes in the region, national capacities of the US, South Korea and Japan, and strategic military exercises on DPRK-initiated conflicts. This study provides insight i

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34

Menuet, Maxime, Patrick Villieu, and Marcel Voia. "Does public debt secure social peace? A diversionary theory of public debt management." Social Choice and Welfare 57, no. 3 (2021): 475–501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00355-021-01332-z.

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35

Sylvester, Christine. "War Experiences/War Practices/War Theory." Millennium: Journal of International Studies 40, no. 3 (2012): 483–503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0305829812442211.

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36

Becker, Jens, and Ina Kulić. "Sliding into the abyss? Bosnia-Herzegovina 30 years after the start of the war." SEER 25, no. 1 (2022): 41–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/1435-2869-2022-1-41.

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This article reviews the current political, social and economic situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina just after the thirtieth anniversary of the start of the war (April 1992). Drawing on a variety of judiciously-chosen contemporary sources in the German language, and taking account of the parallels which can be drawn with analysis of the geopolitical significance of the war in Ukraine, the authors consider the impact of the nationalisms which have taken centre stage not only in how Bosnia-Herzegovina is currently viewed in international perspective but which, more importantly, have sparked sabre-ra

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37

Falandys, Karol, Paweł Łabuz, and Piotr Bastkowski. "Border guard peacetime capacities to counter armed diversionary operations carried out by external entities in the border zone of the Republic of Poland. Analysis and proposals." Scientific Journal of the Military University of Land Forces 193, no. 3 (2019): 417–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0013.5000.

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The article focuses on the possibility of carrying out subversive actions in eastern Poland in the current geopolitical situation. For this purpose, the authors have explained the essence of the undertakings referred to as subversion and diversionary activities. The concept of a new genera-tion war of the Russian Federation and the establishment of the Russia’s Special Operations Forces have been briefly described. It also discusses pretexts to take sabotage actions in eastern Poland and identifies po-tential targets of these actions. A significant part of the article is devot-ed to the analys

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38

Kanat, Kilic Bugra. "“War on Terror” as a Diversionary Strategy: Personifying Minorities as Terrorists in the People's Republic of China." Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs 32, no. 4 (2012): 507–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13602004.2012.746179.

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39

Fravel, M. Taylor. "Regime Insecurity and International Cooperation: Explaining China's Compromises in Territorial Disputes." International Security 30, no. 2 (2005): 46–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/016228805775124534.

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Since the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis, scholars and policymakers have become increasingly concerned about China's territorial ambitions. Yet China has also used peaceful means to manage conficts, settling seventeen of its twenty-three territorial disputes, often with substantial compromises. This article develops a counterintuitive argument about the effects of domestic confict on foreign policy to explain China's behavior. Contrary to the diversionary war hypothesis, this argument posits that state leaders are more likely to compromise in territorial disputes when confronting internal threat

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Cunliffe, Philip. "From peacekeepers to praetorians – how participating in peacekeeping operations may subvert democracy." International Relations 32, no. 2 (2017): 218–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047117817740728.

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This article provides a heuristic study of three cases where participation in peacekeeping operations prompted military rule in the peacekeeper-contributing state. These three atypical cases contradict the theory of diversionary peace, which claims that contributing to peacekeeping operations abroad should stimulate democracy at home. The experience of these three countries also calls into question the conventional wisdom that strongly associates peacekeeping with liberal democratic institutions, outcomes and practices. Via triangulation across literature, reports, elite interviews and WikiLea

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김종헌 and 우준모. "Reinterpretation of Russo-Japanese War by Study on Japan’s Rear Diversionary Tactics against Russia and Dogger Bank Incident." 중소연구 38, no. 4 (2015): 247–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.21196/aprc.38.4.201502.008.

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42

Kaplan, Shawn. "Just War Theory." Philosophy in the Contemporary World 19, no. 2 (2012): 4–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/pcw20121922.

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Yoder, John H. "Just war theory." History of European Ideas 17, no. 2-3 (1993): 341–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0191-6599(93)90306-b.

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44

Scholz, Sally. "Just War Theory, Crimes of War, and War Rape." International Journal of Applied Philosophy 20, no. 1 (2006): 143–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/ijap20062011.

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Reichberg, Gregory. "Preventive War in Classical Just War Theory." Journal of the History of International Law / Revue d'histoire du droit international 9, no. 1 (2007): 5–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/138819907x187288.

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Moser, Caroline O. N. "From gender planning to gender transformation: positionality, theory and practice in cities of the global South." International Development Planning Review 43, no. 2 (2021): 205–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.3828/idpr.2020.9.

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This article reflects on my contribution as an urban feminist scholar-gender expert practitioner to Gender and Development (GAD) theory and practice in cities of the South in relation to my changing positionality within specific institutional contexts. My journey started in the 1980s with urban gender planning, conceptualised in the Development Planning Unit, a United Kingdom-based urban planning unit. After a ‘diversionary’ decade in the World Bank, experiencing GAD non-alignment between individual and institutional positionality, my journey continued as a Ford Foundation external advisor, de

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Li, Yitan, Patrick James, and A. Cooper Drury. "Diversionary Dragons, or “Talking Tough in Taipei”: Cross-Strait Relations in the New Millennium." Journal of East Asian Studies 9, no. 3 (2009): 369–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1598240800006718.

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Much has been written on the triangular, and increasingly high-profile, China-Taiwan-US relations. However, scholars have yet to apply Diversionary Theory to the China-Taiwan dyad. DT argues that leaders may resort to international conflict when domestic political and economic situations become troublesome, aiming at directing public attention away from problems at home. While creation of explicit military conflict in the Taiwan Strait by Taipei is deemed quite unlikely, more subtle processes of diversion might be expected instead. This article applies a variant on DT to assess whether leaders

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Nicholls, Natsuko H., Paul K. Huth, and Benjamin J. Appel. "When Is Domestic Political Unrest Related to International Conflict? Diversionary Theory and Japanese Foreign Policy, 1890-19411." International Studies Quarterly 54, no. 4 (2010): 915–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00620.x.

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You, Chaekwang, and Wonjae Kim. "LOSS AVERSION AND RISK-SEEKING IN KOREA–JAPAN RELATIONS." Journal of East Asian Studies 20, no. 1 (2020): 53–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jea.2019.36.

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AbstractSince Korea's transition to democracy in 1987, Korean leaders have become increasingly confrontational toward Japan, with such steps ranging from verbal threats filled with hawkish rhetoric to material threats, such as displays of military force and threats of actually using it. To explain South Korean leaders’ hawkish approach to Japan, we build a theory of “prospective diversion” by combining insights from the diversionary theory of international conflict and prospect theory. We argue that foreign policy leaders have a strong tendency to overvalue political losses relative to compara

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50

Cook, Martin L. "Applied Just War Theory." Annual of the Society of Christian Ethics 18 (1998): 199–219. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/asce19981817.

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